Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Corruption Is A Threat To The Republic + Trump Keeps Purging The Republican Party

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Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Corruption Is A Threat To The Republic + Trump Keeps Purging The Republican Party · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: absolutely embrace, so use that code. Hello there, Happy Wednesday,
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  Speaker 1: and welcome to the day after our primary episode of
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  Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast. I always used to say back in
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: my meat Press daily days and daily rundown days and
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: all of those daily show days I did, if it's Tuesday,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: somebody's voting somewhere, and if it's Wednesday, we've got results somewhere. Well,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: this was a fairly big Wednesday. We had one of
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: our bigger primary knights of the cycle, a couple of
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: swing states we're voting in primaries, Georgia and Pennsylvania. He
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: also had Kentucky, Alabama, and Oregon on the map. Look,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: there's no doubt what the what the lead story is
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: the lead story, is Donald Trump's grip or remodeling or
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: remaking of the Republican Party continues to succeed. Donald Trump
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: endorsed candidates are in Republican primaries are still winners. Hard stop.
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  Speaker 1: Whether it was the big one that he spent a
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: lot of money in time on Thomas Massey and ed Glryn.
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  Speaker 1: He got rid of Massy. Massey now joins a bunch
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: of Indiana state senators who decided not to remap. He joins,
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  Speaker 1: he may be joining John Cornyn, He joins Bill Cassidy,
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  Speaker 1: and a fairly long list of primaries. Now the question
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  Speaker 1: is my friend Crystal is in our livestream said last night,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: what's good for Donald Trump may not be good for
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party. And while Kentucky four doesn't really matter
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: to the November numbers, this is a very Republican seat.
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  Speaker 1: Whether Massey had run or Gaul Ryan had won, a
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  Speaker 1: Republican was going to hold that seat. It was not
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: going to be shifting. That is not the case of
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's decision to get involved in the Texas Senate race.
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  Speaker 1: It's fascinating to watch what Trump decided to do in
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  Speaker 1: the Texas Center race and when push comes to shove,
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump usually rejects what is in the best interests
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: of the party if the choice is someone and he's
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  Speaker 1: not enthusiastic about, versus someone who's professed love for him
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  Speaker 1: or who has supported some of his crazier positions, like
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: the idea that somehow the twenty twenty election was stolen
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  Speaker 1: from him. And of course Ken Paxton was the attorney
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: general that helped file the first suits and create a
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  Speaker 1: legitimacy behind the bogus claims John Cornyn, as Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: himself reminded in his truth social post, took a long
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  Speaker 1: time before he decided to endorse Trump in a general
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  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. But the problem Donald Trump just
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  Speaker 1: introduced to Republicans in the Senate in particular is Texas
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  Speaker 1: is not a cheap state. Ken Paxton is to say
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  Speaker 1: he's polarizing as a bit of an understatement. He truly
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  Speaker 1: has embraced trump Ism in its personal capacity. He has
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  Speaker 1: used his office for self enrichment. He has used his
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: office to pay off of an affair. He has had
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: very high profile, questionable intermingling of personal and professional. He is,
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  Speaker 1: to put it mildly, a as tough of a Republican
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  Speaker 1: to get elected statewide as you possibly could nominate in
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  Speaker 1: the state of Texas. Now does not mean if he
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  Speaker 1: gets out of that runoff that he's still not the
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  Speaker 1: slight favorite in the Senate race. But the problem is,
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  Speaker 1: as we've been watching in this runoff, is that John Cornyn,
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  Speaker 1: he has been just out working and outspending and out
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  Speaker 1: fundraising Ken Paxton up and down. Now it may not
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  Speaker 1: be enough, right. Trump's endorsement matters a lot in a
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  Speaker 1: Republican primary. Trump's endorsement matters a lot in a Republican runoff.
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  Speaker 1: And we know it is your more devoted Republicans that
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  Speaker 1: show up in a runoff. Therefore, you'd rather be Paxton
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  Speaker 1: at this point than Cornyn. Cornyn's Cornyn supporters are suburban
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  Speaker 1: independence who lean Republican, who may not all be participating
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  Speaker 1: in this runoff. Now we'll see it is if you've
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  Speaker 1: not voted in the Democratic primary, you can participate in
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: this runoff. But this was a pretty tough punch to
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  Speaker 1: the gut for corn in the last week of the race,
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  Speaker 1: because it looked like he had a little bit of momentum.
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  Speaker 1: He is hung in there. This race is not Paxton
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  Speaker 1: has had a tough time pulling away, and let's not
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  Speaker 1: forget John Cornan actually outpolled Paxton technically in the first
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  Speaker 1: round during that early March primary. But Donald Trump wants
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  Speaker 1: to remake the party in Donald Trump's image, and in
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  Speaker 1: this case, this becomes a very expensive decision by Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump for the rest of the Republican Party. The Senate
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  Speaker 1: Leadership Fund, which is the big super pack for Senate Republicans,
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  Speaker 1: is going to have to just spend a boatload of money.
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  Speaker 1: So what does that mean wherever they If they have
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  Speaker 1: to spend more money than they plan to in Texas,
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  Speaker 1: it means they're not gonna be able to spend money
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  Speaker 1: in other places. So a few things and a few
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  Speaker 1: questions I'm going to have in this is where won't
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  Speaker 1: they spend money? Is this bad news for Michael Wattley
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  Speaker 1: In North Carolina? Roy Cooper's got a durable lead and
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  Speaker 1: gobs of money. It looks like a race that was
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  Speaker 1: going to be tough to win anyway. If you have
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  Speaker 1: if you only have a certain amount of money to spend,
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  Speaker 1: and your choices are to support Michael Watley or to
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  Speaker 1: support Ken Paxton, Well, if you just look at the
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  Speaker 1: numbers of Texas versus North Carolina. If you're a Republican,
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  Speaker 1: no matter how much you think Ken Paxton doesn't belong,
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  Speaker 1: maybe belongs behind bars, let alone in the US Senate,
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  Speaker 1: certainly shouldn't be holding elective office. But if your whole
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  Speaker 1: goal is just numbers and you're looking for who's got
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  Speaker 1: a better chance to be a Republican Senator, it's Ken Paxton.
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  Speaker 1: And so but again, how about you know, you've got
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  Speaker 1: a new Hampshire Center race that is a you know,
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  Speaker 1: sort of in the second tier of targets for Senate Republicans.
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  Speaker 1: The Boston media market makes it actually a very expensive
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  Speaker 1: state to target. Does that end up being because we
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  Speaker 1: know the small states the party's going to stick, right,
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  Speaker 1: they can't afford. They're not going to let a Iowa
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  Speaker 1: slip on them. They're not going to pull money away
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  Speaker 1: from Alaska. They're not going to pull money away from Michigan,
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  Speaker 1: which looks like a pretty viable it's whoever ends up
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  Speaker 1: in the Democratic the nominee from that primary. It's going
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  Speaker 1: to be a divided Democratic Party, so and they're pretty
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  Speaker 1: unified there, so they're not going to pull money from there.
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  Speaker 1: It is I think North Carolina, New Hampshire. It's Johnson
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  Speaker 1: and Michael Watley that have to be really upset with
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's decision to knife John Cornyn here. And speaking
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  Speaker 1: of Donald Trump, so he is he is a couple
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  Speaker 1: of he is an endorsed candidate. And Georgia Governor Burt
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  Speaker 1: Jones he is not endorsed. In the Georgia Senate race.
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  Speaker 1: We're gonna have and you know, let's see, you know,
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  Speaker 1: we're still waiting for the final numbers there, but it
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  Speaker 1: looks like Dooley's going to be the the runoff opponent
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  Speaker 1: there from Mike Collins, the congressman. Look, anybody that Brian
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  Speaker 1: Kemp is pushing Donald Trump's going to be against, Well,
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  Speaker 1: Brian Kemp spend a bunch of money to help out Dooley?
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  Speaker 1: Is he his his presence in the last minute of
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  Speaker 1: the you know, in the last two weeks on the
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  Speaker 1: trail on behalf of Dooley has been quite helpful, uh
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  Speaker 1: to him? Is Donald Trump going to spend money and
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: help and on Collins? Now, let's go to the governor's
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  Speaker 1: runoff there, which is Burt Jones, somebody that Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: is support from the very beginning because Burt Jones is
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  Speaker 1: somebody that has supported Donald Trump in his belief that
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  Speaker 1: the twenty twenty election was overturned, was somehow was somehow stolen. Well,
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  Speaker 1: Rick Jackson is a newbie candidate. He's a big wealthy candidate.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump will let a billionaire flip flop. He loves billionaires,
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  Speaker 1: He loves rich people if they end up writing him checks.
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  Speaker 1: Rick Jackson has bragged about writing a million dollar check
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  Speaker 1: to Donald Trump as he jumped into this Republican primary.
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  Speaker 1: The Burt Jones people have pointed out that he also
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  Speaker 1: wrote checks to Stacy Abrams. Now, Jackson has a pretty
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  Speaker 1: good ad basically saying, just like Donald Trump, I've given
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  Speaker 1: money to a whole bunch of people. So that's a
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  Speaker 1: race that I'm very curious. Does Donald Trump pull the
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  Speaker 1: old coo endorse I like them both because Rick Jackson
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  Speaker 1: has written him a big fat check, or does he
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  Speaker 1: put his money where his mouth is like he did
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  Speaker 1: with Paxton and actually end stick by Jones? Right. Remember,
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump only wants people to be loyal to him.
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  Speaker 1: He does not always extend that loyalty the other way.
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  Speaker 1: And so you know, if you're thinking, well, Burt Jones
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  Speaker 1: should have nothing to worry about. Burt Jones should have
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  Speaker 1: something to worry about. And let's be honest, Democrats had
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  Speaker 1: a pretty good night in Georgia. It was a They
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  Speaker 1: had a slightly higher turnout than the Republicans. And I
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  Speaker 1: would argue that the Republican races had more activity and
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  Speaker 1: it certainly more money was being spent in Republican primaries
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: than Democratic primaries, and yet the Democrats outpull them. That's
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: a pretty good indicator when you've got us. When you
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: see when there's enough competition on both sides of the
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  Speaker 1: aisle in a swing state and you see one party
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: outpulling the other. It's been and the trend if you
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: go back, that trend is pretty foreshadowing. You know, we
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  Speaker 1: saw this again, remember during the twenty twenty five election night.
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  Speaker 1: We had Georgia Democrats overperforming in that. So there's no
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  Speaker 1: doubt Democrats are fired up. The other thing we've seen
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: is a lot of evidence that African American turnout is
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  Speaker 1: starting to get higher in this post Voting Rights Act
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  Speaker 1: decision in the redistrict, in the aggressive redistricting and urgent
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: redistricting that's taking place in these Southern states. I have
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: been very curious if it was going to be the
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: unintended consequence of this was going to strengthen African American
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Democratic statewide candidates in the South. Well, Keisha Lance Bottoms,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: you know we're going in. We thought it was fifty
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: to fifty chances she'd end up in a runoff. She
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: avoided a runoff. We've saw a fascinating divide inside that
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: those Supreme Court races. The African American candidate did a
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  Speaker 1: lot better in votes than the white challenger to one
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: of the other Supreme Court justice seats there. So in
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: and on Saturday night we saw an uptick. We saw
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Democratic turnout for non competitive races. Overall, that state wide
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: turnout was a lot more competitive Republican. There were more
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Republicans and Democrats total vote, but it was not this
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: massive gap that I think some of us expected. And
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: there was almost no money spent on the Democratic side
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: of the island some of these races. So it's possible
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: we're starting to see this evidence. I still think it's
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: early to be certain this is coming, but I certainly
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: it's a trend to follow, and I think keep track
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: of any primaries, particularly in the South, between and Democratic
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: primaries between African American candidates and white candidates. How much
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: is this going to be a bigger factor now in
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: this post Voting Rights Act era that we're in, you know,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: we'll see I'm convinced we're going to see a surgeon turnout.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Is it enough to flip some states? Is it enough
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: to flip a race? Could it make Alabama governor more
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: competitive than we expect? Maybe? You know, that's probably that
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: that's one of my longer shots that I'm I think
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: could I think could get more competitive than than the
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: most handy kappers think. And for a variety of reasons.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: I think Tupperville's a week a week. You know, it's
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: not the strongest candidate Republicans could have found there. They'd
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: found a stronger candidate, I wouldn't be paying as much
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: attention to Alabama governor. So but the big obviously development
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: of the night is that once again we see Trump's
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: endorsement matters with with the results that we saw and
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: the fact that it's going to be run offs that
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: will include some Trump endorsed candidates versus non Trump endorse candidates.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: How active does he get, how aggressive does he get?
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: And are we going to start to see a pattern.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Jessica Taylor, who was on our live stream from the
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Cook Report, noted that it does seem as if you know,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: at the beginning of this cycle, Donald Trump was making
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: peace at the establishment wing of the Republican Party. He
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: endorsed Mike Rogers and Michigan, who's no maga guy. He
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: endorsed Johnsonunu in New Hampshire, who's no maga guy. So
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: there was some thought that maybe he was going to
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: do what was best for the party, even if it
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: wasn't the best for Donald Trump. As his numbers have
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: gotten lower, as he is getting sort of more and
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: more unpopular, he seems to, you know, is it possible?
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: And this may explain the Paxton endorsement that kind of
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: caught Senate Republicans off guard. I think at this point
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: they were just hoping for just no endorsement at this point,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: don't do anything. He did this. He did it with
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: a week in advance, which gives Paxton time to call
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: himself the Trump endorsed candidate, to put up an ad
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: on the air, etc. Etc. Is this sort of like,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: you know, his way of soothing himself that he's going
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: to retreat to his most loyalist part of his base
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: going to support those who've been with them through thick
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: and thin. He's essentially going to get his blanky, right,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: He's going to get his blanky and hold it tight,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: you know, and support in those guys. So it is
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: something that I'm going to be curious to watch. These
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Georgia runoffs are essentially less technically less than a month
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: from today, they're going to be in June sixteenth, or
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: they're pretty quick turnarounds. But it's one of those where
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: it's going to test does Trump put his money where
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: his mouth is? Because for Burt Jones and that gubernatorial race,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: it's going to take more than just him appearing in ads.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: He's going to have to spend some money if he
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: wants if how much does that endorsement mean to him?
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: Because I'll tell you this, this is another one. If
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Rick Jackson's a Republican nominee for governor, I'm a lot
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: less bullish on Democrats being able to win that governor
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: seat than if Burt Jones wins. Right, you nominate somebody
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: who's an election denier. We've seen this election denier nominees
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: do in swing states do not do well, we saw
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: it in Arizona in twenty twenty two. We saw with
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania twenty twenty two. These election deniers
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: in swing states turn off swing voters, and Burt Jones
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: is an election denier and that's why, you know. So
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: that's something else I'm going to be watching for in
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: those Georgia runoffs. Do Democrats play in the runoff and
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: try to help Burt Jones the real Trump candidate? Right,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: It's a risky thing to do, but you know, there's
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: no rules these days in politics, and in some ways
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: it might be risky or not doing that, trying to
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: wait for somebody else to try to help out the
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: campaign that you would like to see do better if
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: you're sitting in the Keisha Lands Bottoms situation and if
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: you're the DGA. So I'm going to be curious. We're
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: going to find out a lot about the DGA. We're
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: going to find out a lot about whether Donald Trump
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: wants to part with his own money in MAGA. Does
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: the victory in Kentucky embolden him to do that and
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: to start spending more money in Republican primaries, or when
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: does he decide to pivot and start thinking about general elections,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: because right now he is not making decisions that are
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: in the best interests of the Republican Party keeping power
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. He is simply making what makes
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: him feel better about Republicans that he wants in the
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: party and those Republicans that he wants out of the party.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: Outside of that, I'm trying to think of anything else here. So,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: you know, like like I said, I think these Georgia runoffs,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: we're going to learn a lot about just how intense
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: the support or lack of support is in the Trump arena.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: What do the Democrats do on that Pennsylvania House primaries,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: no real shocks, although the fact that the squad didn't
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: get the member that they thought they were going to
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: get in Pennsylvania, that race is still you know, is
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: a small is a small surprise there, but beyond that,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: not a ton that you can pull out of Pennsylvania.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: That's fairly telling. But of course, even though Pennsylvania is
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: an important swing state, there's not really a lot of
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: competition in Pennsylvania this cycle. Right There's no Senate race
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: this cycle, and it doesn't look like the governor's race
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: is going to be competitive. So what does matter in
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: Pennsylvania A couple of house races that of course will
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: be following into November. And I'll tell you this, whatever
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: happens Oregon governor is going to be competitive. But of
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: course those of you that listen to the Check podcast
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: have known that I've told you that Oregon governor is
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: one of those. You know, if this had been a
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Republican leaning year nationally, i'd probably have the Tina Cotech
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: the incoming governor, maybe first or second on incumbents most
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: likely to lose, you know, I probably now put her
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: ahead of the Arizona governor Katie Hobbs. I think she's
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: going to benefit from an election Denier becoming the nominee. Again,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: she's going to get Andy Biggs. If she ends up
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: against Dave Schweikert, which you're gonna I'm going to tell
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: you more about that race during my top five lists
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: later in the program. She would have a real fight
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: in her hands. But that's I think. When you're looking
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: at what happened last night in Oregon, do keep in
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: mind Tina Kotek might be the most vulnerable incumbent governor
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: who's a nominee the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country, though,
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: is actually Dan McKee of Rhode Island, who's unlikely to
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: actually get out of the Democratic primary win. The Rhode
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Island race is done. So big election night, big victories
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: for Donald Trump, but a lot of good news for
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Democrats in Georgia that is certainly not worth dismissing there. So,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: all in all, a good night for Donald Trump, maybe
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: not a good night for the Republican Party. This episode
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  Speaker 1: am a customer. I want to zoom out for a minute,
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: both from the Tuesday results and from Polarization talk about
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: something that I think is a bit bigger that's hanging
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: over all of our politics right now, And honestly, it's
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: something I've been worried about, and it's something I've been
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: thinking a lot about as I've watched this second Trump
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: term unfold. You know, one observation I've made over the
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: years when it comes to the issue of corruption and
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: ethics is this, corruption issues only really become voting issues
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: when voters feel their own lives are failing as well,
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: and when they think government officials in the government is
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: letting them down. That's when corruption breaks through. That's when
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: it stops being Washington noise and starts becoming personal. Watergate
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: mattered politically, not simply because of the break in or
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: the cover up. The country already felt exhausted, Inflation was high,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: trust in government was collapsing. The Vietnam War had shattered
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: confidence and institutions. Americans already believed something was wrong with
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: the system itself. And again, did I tell you the
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: economy sucked. By contrast, Bill Clinton survived his scandal with
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Monica Lewinsky not because people overlook the scandal, but it's
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: because most Americans felt their own lives were okay. They thought, well,
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: he's doing a good job. The economy was booming, and
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: so people were able to compartmentalize the scandal. They basically said, yeah,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: this is ugly, but my life's okay. And that distinction
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: matters right now, because I think we are entering a
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: very dangerous phase in American politics at the moment. It's
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: not simply because of Donald Trump, but of what Trump
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: is normalizing, and more importantly, what happens if voters decide
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: this level of behavior is politically survival. So what am
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: I talking about here? It's this sort of selling of
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: the presidency and the grift from the government, right with
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: the latest being this ridiculous Iris settlement that basically just
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: steals one point eight billion dollars of taxpayer money so
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: that Donald Trump can have a slush fund to give
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: it out to loyalists. That's all it is. And in fact,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: it is this sort of you know, he worked, He
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: basically came up with this agreement with his personal attorney,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: who technically has the title of acting Attorney General right now,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: and he's avoiding judicial review because they struck the settlement
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: before a judge could say this is this lawsuits, this
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: is this case, they would have probably ruled that you
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: couldn't be a party both sides of a lawsuit, so
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: they wouldn't have allowed it to go through. But if
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: you quickly settle before they have a chance to decide
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: whether even the lawsuit has standing, well here we go.
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: And not only that, apparently the Justice Department has agreed
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: to never investigate Trump or his family on tax on
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: tax issues ever. Again, I guess on anything that is
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: any tax issue that has already taken place, perhaps going forward,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: I don't think. I don't think the Justice Department gave
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: him a get out of jail free card when it
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: comes to future tax evasion. But the Justice Department has
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: given the Trumps they get out the jail free card
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: for whatever tax evasion may have occurred up until this point.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Think about that. I'm not saying there's been any tax evasion,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: but apparently the government's not allowed to look into it. Now.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: Trump's real defense to how he practices this transactional politics
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: has never been innocence. It's been normalization. But he's corrupt.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: I'm just your corrupt guy. I've given money to all
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: these people. I know how this system works. You remember
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: that version of him, And honestly, that's the most dangerous
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: political argument in modern American history, because enough Americans already
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: have believe it. And that's been the key to Trump's survival.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to call it success. If surviving is success,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: then sure he's been successful. Politically, this has not been
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: you know, it's funny. It's like Donald Trump has endured,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: but he's never been a popular president. And he's enormously
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: unpopular now. I oh, by the way, he got millions
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: killed in his first term with COVID and his mismanagement
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: of that, and he's now totally unraveling parts of the
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: American economy just because he believes tariffs are good for
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: the American economy, they're not. He started a war of
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: choice without going without any sort of strategy to minimize
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: the economic damy image or to minimize how long the
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: Iranians could keep us in a stalemate. So this has
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: not been a successful two terms for the president. He's
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: just simply politically survived. And that's the key. Trump doesn't
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: defend himself the way Nixon even defended himself. Nixon understood
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: the corruption that was taking place with something shameful, and
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: that it had to be hidden. He hid it. Trump
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: understands corruption as something that can be absorbed into the culture.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: Nixon's corruption was about concealment. Trump's corruption is about saturation.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: If you flood the zone, overwhelm people, overwhelm the system,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: create so many supposed scandals that nobody can metabolize them
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: all at the same time, make the outrageous feel routine.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: One scandal, then another, then another, and eventually people just
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: emotionally tap out, Yeah, he's corrupt. What else is now?
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Now it's broken and through that he's corrupt. A majority
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: of people don't believe he's honest and trustworthy. We've seen
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: that in polls. But I don't think that numbness is
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: a side effect of the strategy anymore. I think numbness
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: is the strategy because once voters stop being shocked at corruption,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: like I have fear that there's not enough shock about
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: this IRS bullshit slush fund. Once they start saying, well,
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: everybody does it, they're all kind of corrupt. Once they
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: stop expecting ethical boundaries altogether, that's when the system itself
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: begins adapting around corruption. And this is the part I
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: think we are all underestimating. This isn't just about Trump
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: making money off the presidency, though that seems to be
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: a motivation for him. This is about whether the American
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: political system starts absorbing the lesson that visible corruption carries
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: no meaningful political penalty anymore, because once something becomes politically survivable,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: it becomes politically reproducible. That is the danger. We've already
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: seen the Democrats fold on a principle when it came
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: to redistricting. Up they're doing it, So now we're going
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: to do it. Don't think we won't see the same
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: thing with pay to play. The danger is what comes
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: after Trump if this works, if there is no price
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: to pay for this brazen corruption. Now, look, one reason
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: I think this second term feels qualitatively different from the
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: first is almost all the internal guardrails are gone. Right.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: You had people that worried about bad ethical looks right
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: in the first administration. There actually were still people around
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Trump who worried about appearances, lawyers whoccasionally said no Republicans
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: who still feared institutional damage or public backlash more than
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: Trump's wrath. Well, most of those people are gone. Trump's
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: trying to purge them literally out of the party primary
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: by primary. If he can't, and that's not accidental, he
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: is systematically purged from the Republican Party. Anyone who treats
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: institutional norms, constitutional guardrails, or ethical limits as more important
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: than personal loyally to him. Look carefully at who gets
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: targeted and why they're targeted. Bill Cassidy, it's due to
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: impeachment Mike Pence because he didn't he didn't follow his
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: orders on January sixth, election officials who have refused to
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: manipulate certification after twenty twenty Thomas Massey after demanding transparency
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: around Epstein. He gets targeted. The Republicans of Indiana who
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: resisted aggressive mid decade redistricting. Do you see the pattern.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: The defining sin in modern trump Ism often is not
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: ideological disagreement. FDR targeted fellow Democrats, but it was over
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: his freaking agenda. Donald Trump does it because he doesn't
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: like it that people have ethics or moral The refusal
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: to subordinate institutional norms to personal loyalty. That's what makes
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: this so different and dangerous. That's much closer to the
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: logic of a patronage system than a traditional political movement,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: and another name for it is a kleptocracy. Donald Trump
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: is already turning the Republican Party into kleptocracy. We here
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: have to fight to make sure the entire country doesn't
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: become a kleptocracy. And I think that's why this moment
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: feels more dangerous than a normal American corruption scandal, because
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: it's not merely corruption at the top. It's the gradual
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: erosion of the idea that ethical restraint even matters. Now,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: let's talk about the actual conduct for a minute, because honestly,
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: at this point, the evidence itself is overwhelming, and paradoxically,
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: I think that's part of why it struggles to fully
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: penetrate politically. There are too many scandals to metabolize. The
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: Mean coin operation alone would have been an earth shattering
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: scandal in another era. Think about what's actually happening here.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: The sitting president of the United States essentially creates a
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: financial ecosystem where proximity to him becomes monetized. Top holders
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: of said coin get access opportunities, private dinners, influence signaling,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: all wrapped inside speculative crypto trading, tied directly to the
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: political identity of the president himself, and he doesn't even
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: hide it. It's all public. That's the part that matters here.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: This is an old school corruption where somebody sneaks envelopes
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: of cash into a parking garage. This is open air
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: pay to play. And then you layer on the overlap
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: between Trump connected business ventures, foreign linked investment structures, sensitive
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: public policy decisions. At some point, the distinction between public
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: office and private enrichment just completely collapses in the public mind.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: And honestly, I think the pardon issue may ultimately become
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: the most politically part of all of this, because ordinary
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: voters instinctively understand that a pardon is something you buy.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: These pardons don't merely free people from jail. In most
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: of these cases, there's been more than just time out
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: of prison. They erase massive financial penalties owed to either victims, shareholders,
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: or taxpayers. There's a guy named Trevor Milton. His case
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: really crystallizes for me. He's a guy convicted of massive
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: fraud case he owed enormous restitution, and then he gets
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: his pardon and the restitution voided after making a three
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: million dollar donation to Donald Trump. Now, legally, defenders will
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: say these are separate events, but politically, emotionally, people understand
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: exactly what this looks like. Rich people buying their way
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: out of consequences. The Epstein class. And that lands especially
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: hard when ordinary Americans already feeled squeezed by the system.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: Remember the same government, right these ads right themselves. Donald
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: trump Is policies have raised the cost of your grocery bill.
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: And guess how much he's raised his net worth while
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: being in president. While he's raised your prices, he's helped
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: create a tax. Put it this way, the US Postal
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Service had to raise prices temporarily on all packages that
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: are above envelopes, ground advantage, priority mail, things like that.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: That is a tax on small businesses. It's a transportation
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: pack that took away. It's all about the Iran war,
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: and that lands especially hard. And that's when you can
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: connect the corruption to their everyday lives. Watch out and
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: now comes this newest IRS lawsuit settlement structure, which effectively
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: creates a taxpayer funded mechanism tied to Trump's personal grievances
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: and legal battles. We can debate the legal mechanics, but
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: politically the message which matters more than the details. The
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: perception is that political power itself is increasingly being used
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: for personal protection, personal reward, and personal score settling. Again,
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Trump's defense is not really denial anymore. It's normalization. Everybody
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: does it. The system is corrupt against me, so I'm
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: going to change. I'm going to use the system against
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: my opponents. And then he'll just say I'm just better
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: at the game. And what makes the argument dangerous is
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: that many Americans already half believe his premise. A lot
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: of people already think the system is right, a lot
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: of people already think both parties are corrupt. Trump's innovation
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: is not trying to refute that cynicism. It's weaponizing it.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: That's what's new. And I think it's important to understand
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: where systems like this eventually go if they're left unchecked,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: because when you look around the world at democracies that
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: we can crumble or drift toward authoritarianism, kleptocracy is almost
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: always part of the story, not always at the beginning,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: but eventually. In Hungary, Victor ro Bond fused party power,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: oligarch wealth, media influence, and state resources into one giant
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: patronage ecosystem built around loyalty. It worked until it finally
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: didn't when an opponent was able to connect the corruption
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: to their lives. In Turkey air to one steadily weakened
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: institutional checks, while political loyalty increasingly became intertwined with economic
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: opportunity and state power. In Venezuela, the democratic collapse didn't
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: happen overnight. It happened gradually through institutional erosion, patronage networks,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: politicized justice, corruption, attacks on independent institutions, and the normalization
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: of transactional government. That's how democratic small d democratic decay
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: usually works now, not through one dramatic coup, through simple
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: derosion and corrosion. Slowly, the lines between public office and
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: private gain blur. Institutions don't disappear, but they weaken. Accountability
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: isn't gone, but it fades. Political loyalty becomes more valuable
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: than competence, ethics, or morals. The ruling movement increasingly treats
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: the state as something to extract from rather than steward four.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: And eventually the public either revolts against the corruption or
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: simply becomes accustomed to it. And I think that is
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: the real danger here, not merely Trump himself, but the
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: adaptation to trump Ism, the normalization of it, the absorption
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: of it into the political bloodstream. Because what Trump has
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: built is more than a corrupt administration. He is building
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: a kleptocracy. Now, for the moment, it's still largely contained
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: within his political movement and the party structure he currently controls.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: But we all know this. Political systems learn, and once
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: something becomes politically survivable, it becomes politically reproducible. Governors will
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: absorb the lesson. Future mayors will absorb the lesson. Future
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: presidents will absorb the lesson. Members of Congress will absorb
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: the lesson. Why wouldn't future politicians monetize access of voters
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: tolerated Why wouldn't they blur public office with private enrichment
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: if voters tolerated Why wouldn't they use pardons transactionally if
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: voters tolerated it. Why wouldn't they treat political power itself
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: as a business opportunity again, if voters tolerated it. So
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: this is where I actually think polarization becomes so dangerous
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: to democratic small D accountability because once ethics becomes entirely tribal,
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: once voters stop evaluating conduct and only evaluate whether their
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: side is winning. Once corruption becomes tolerable as long as
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: your faction benefits own the Libs baby, then the political
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: system starts adapting around the corruption itself. That's the slippery slope.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: That's why the bigger danger is not Trump himself, comes
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: after Trump. If this works, because if voters ultimately decide
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: this level of visible self enrichment carries no political penalty,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: the transactional grift stops being an aberration. It becomes the
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: governing culture. And once that apps in, corruption no longer
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: belongs to one movement, it becomes embedded in the republic itself.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: We're already corrupting our political are the fights over gerrymandering
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: and political lines? Do we want to keep this up?
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: This is how republics decay, not because voters consciously choose corruption.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: They don't want it, they will always tell you that,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: but because they slowly become accustomed to it, and once
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: the public begins treating the infection as normal tissue, democracies
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: rarely recover quickly. Sometimes they don't recover at all. This corruption.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: If voters don't punish anybody who embraces this corruption, who
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: looks the other way, you're risking long term decay of
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: our republic itself. With that pretty upbeat, huh, let's sneak
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: in a break, and we're going to bring in Sean
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: Westwood and We're going to talk about polarization. How can
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: we through data analyze it and perhaps start to depolarize well.
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you
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  Speaker 1: by Quints. This time of year always makes me rethink
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  Speaker 1: slash chuck. Use that codep Jest Top five, Top Top Jest,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: Top five and my top five. This week, since we
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: just got through a huge primary night on Tuesday, I
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: thought I would tackle the five primaries left the top
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: five primaries that will have dramatic impacts on the competitiveness
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: of the general election itself, right depending on what happens
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: in the primary or runoff. Hint hint of which primaries
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: are making my top five list will change the dynamics
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: of the general election and will either help or hurt
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: the incumbent party depending on what happens in these primaries
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: and in one case, in a runoff. So number five
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: on my list is a primary on August eleventh. It's
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: a Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor. Tony Evers is choosing
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: not to seek a third term. What's ironic here is
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: this is a gigantic field. There is there's not really
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: a front runner. The front runner as of March, and
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: a poll of primary voters was undecided. Sixty five percent
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: of Democratic primary voters were undecided in a March survey.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: It's a huge field. Probably the person with the highest
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: name or cognition is former Tony Evers's lieutenant governor in
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: his first term, Mendela Barnes, who was the Democratic nominee
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: for US Senate against Ron Johnson and lost a close
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: race to Ron Johnson in twenty twenty two. But it
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: was an under Many Democrats believe Barnes underperformed, that he
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: was too progressive, that is, that he was easily transformed
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: into a candidate that couldn't uh, that wasn't wasn't going
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: to be tough on crime and in public safety. And
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: so there's some nervousness among some Democrats who just simply
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: want to hold the Governor's mansion about whether it is
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: Barnes electable enough? And I think that's the question, right,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: You may not get the perfect candidate here, is he
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: electable enough in this environment? The Republicans have essentially settled
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: on a candidate. It's Tom Tiffany's a member of Congress.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's already endorsed him. So he's sitting there waiting
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: as the nominee. And the question is who's going to
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: be the strongest to take him on? And that's the
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: debate inside the Wisconsin Democratic Party, which is all about
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: Mandela Barnes. Barnes has probably got the best organization, He's
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: probably the favorite of progressives here, but there is some
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: nerve bousness and some questions about whether if he couldn't
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: beat Ron Johnson, who's a pretty polarizing figure himself in
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: an election year that was where the Democrats won the
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: Governor's mansion. Tony Evers wins reelection in twenty two, but
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: so does Johnson. Right, Mandela Barnes essentially underperforms Evers. So
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: the question is if you underperform by two or three
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: points the generic Democratic vote, is that going to cost
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: you a Wisconsin governor's race. Well, history says yes it
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: will because Wisconsin elections seem to trade. The trading range
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: seems to be somewhere between forty eight and fifty two
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: for both parties on a given election. So that's what
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: makes it. Right now, it's a seven candidate Democratic scrum.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: Like I said, You've got a former lieutenant governor of
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: Tony Evers, Mandela Barnes. You got a current lieutenant governor
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: in Sarah Rodriguez. You have the Milwaukee County execut David Crawley.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: You got a state Representative Francesco Hang. You had another
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: state Senator, kel Dea Roys, and another. You have a
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: business wan and Missy Hughes. So it is a huge field.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: Barnes has the highest name, id Rodriguez is next. Now
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Evers so far is staying out of this. So it
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: really will be I think this primary really will be
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: a live stress test of the post twenty twenty four
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: Democratic debate. Do you nominate the candidate the base is
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: most excited about, or the one that pulls the best
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: in a state that Democrats can't afford to lose. And
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: we know these are one two three point races. So
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: that's you know how basically it's the Mandela Barnes primary, right,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: what happens there? Number four my list. Number four of
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: my list is the Michigan Senate Democratic primary. Obviously, we're
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: starting to see more and more polling that shows Abdul
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: say Ed does poll weaker now against the likely the
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: likely Republican nominee Mike Rodgers. You've got Haley Stephens. You
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: got more of the establishment wing of the Democratic Party
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: rallying around Haley Stevens. She's a member of Congress, sort
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: of the in the mold of Alyssa Slotkin. She has
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: the endorsement of Schumer. She now just recently got the
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: endorsement of Chris Kuons. Chris Kuns in many ways emblematic
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: of sort of the next generation of quote unquote the
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: Democratic establishment. And then you have Mallory McMorrow, who's been
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: trying to straddle the fence. So but it really is
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: about Abdul al Sayed or not abdu al Sayed. And
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: if you see, I think there are a growing number
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: of Democrats and a growing number of Republicans in Michigan
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: who believe if he is the nominee, then you're really
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: he is going to underperform the overall Democratic vote. The
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: question is, you know, how how strong is the wind
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: at the back of Democrats? Right, Look, weak general election
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: candidates can still win in wave years, if you know,
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: if the wave is big enough, and Michigan is certainly
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: a state that is going to move in the direction
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: of the company. But Mikes second time running, Yes, he
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: has Trump's endorsement, but he has just enough in his
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: background to sort of be seen as a slightly less
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: trumpy than your average Trump endorsed candidate. Right, He's no
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: Ken Paxton on that front. And so that's why you
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: have you're starting to hear I have started to hear
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: a lot of more nervousness about abduval sayet that he's
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: just going to be a harder candidate to get across
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: the aibed, across the finish line, that it's going to
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: be all sorts of hand ringing there, that McMorrow and Stevens,
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: if they're the general election nominee, that it's just a
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: lot easier for them to run as generic Democrat right,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: generic Democrat is going to win the Michigan Senate race
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: in this political environment. The question is do they nominate
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: a candidate that runs essentially as well as a generic
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Democrat would run, or do they run somebody who might
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: be slightly more polarizing than generic Democrat. Uh, And that
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: seems to be the biggest concern, But we'll see. Abdu
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: al Sayet is running a very effective campaign, and he
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: is in some ways whatever controversies have hit him, they've
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: only seemed to have made him stronger in some parts
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: of the party, not weaker, very not quite the same,
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: not quite the same trajectory as Graham Platner in Maine.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: But it's it's related, and so we'll see. But I
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: will tell you this, the perception on money, I'll say this,
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: the idea Democrats are not going to pull away if
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: I'll do all. Saiet's a nominee. It's Michigan, for gosh shakes.
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: So they're gonna throw a ton of money at it.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: I think the question is they have to throw a
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: lot more money at it. Is it going to be
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: a lot tougher of a campaign against Rogers in a
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: situation like that, we know this Rogers is gonna be
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: running an extraordinarily negative campaign against abdu Al sayet right.
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: He was going to want to make this about him, right,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: And it's going to become essentially two battles of a referendum.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: Is it a referendumount of Abduel say ed or is
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: it a referendum on Trump? Right? And that's what the
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: financial battle plan would be if this is it now,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: if it's Haley Stevens or Mallory McMorrow, I think Roger's
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: going to have a harder time making it a referendum
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: on the Democrats, and the Democrats are still probably going
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: to be able to make it a referendum on Trump
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: in the state, especially on affordability. Number three on the
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: list is California. That's coming up on June second. By
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: the way, the Michigan primary August fourth, first Tuesday in
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: August on that one, So mark those calendars there. Okay.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: Number three on my list the California gov primary that's
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: coming up on June second. Pretty simple test, right, which
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: does you know do is there two Republicans in the
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: top two and the Democrats get locked out? What happens then?
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: Is there a writing campaign that would be my guess
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: is that Democrats would try to create a writing campaign
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: in it. You know, I think that they would probably
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: have to recruit somebody like Comm Harris if they were
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: actually going to pull off a writing campaign. So but
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: at this point, now that you see you've seen there's
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: a superpack in California that's starting to do some attack
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: ads on Steve Hilton, one of the Republican candidates. And
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: what are the attack ads? That he's too conservative? The
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: point is they're trying to do what Adam Shift did
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: with Steve Garvey in his Senate race, right in order
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: to avoid a top two finish with Katie Porter at
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: the time, he's trying to increase conservative voter awareness of
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: Steve Hilton so that Chad Bianco, the other Republican in
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: the race, the riverside sheriff, starts to fade a bit
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: in the pull so they can avoid the top two. Obviously,
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Democrats believe if it's a one on one, if you've
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: got an R next to your name, you're just not
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: winning statewide in California. That's the assumption. I think in
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: this political environment it's a pretty fair bet. So we're
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: seeing that. So that's why this matters so much. Look,
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: do I think Ave Aerbersera is a strong potential demer
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: at a candidate here? I do not. That doesn't mean
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: he isn't going to win an election against Steve Hilton.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: But this thing is going to be about Basarah. He
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: is going to have a hard time I think making
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: this about Hilton. I'm going to stand by a sort
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: of snarky prediction I made two or three months ago
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: that I'm starting at, like, I'm not sure whoever gets
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: elected governor is going is whoever gets elected governor is
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: probably going to face a recall. The question is is
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: it successful? But this field is that week that almost
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: no matter who it produces as governor, you're going to
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: see that. But obviously is there a Democrat in the
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: top two or not? And that changes a lot of
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: things here. So obviously it's a huge thing. I think
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: right now the trajectory is I think you're most likely
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: to see Steve Hilton and a d you know, likely
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: Besara at this point. But let's see how he holds
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: up over the next couple of weeks. As Stire just
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: drops gazillions on his head and you know, there, let's
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: just say there's plenty of material to raise questions about
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: the Sarah. Number two on the list for me is
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: a primary that's coming up in July twenty first, it's
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: the Arizona Republican goubernatorial primary, and this is one of those.
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: It's very similar to what's going to be number one
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: on my list. You basically have a trumpy person and
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: a non trumpy person, and if the Republicans somehow nominate
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: the non trumpy person, I think they can win this
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: governor's race. Katie Hobbs is not the most charismatic governor.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: She barely beat Carrie Lake, and she certainly was handed
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: a gift on that front and was able to pull
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: off that election. So now it is there's two candidates
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: in this race, and the trumpy candidate is Congressman Andy Biggs,
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: and the non trumpet candidate is Congressman David Swiker, and
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: he is David Schwiker has represented the very swingy first
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: District for most of his time there. Look, most of
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: the polling is shown Bigs clobbering Schweikert in the primary.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: And look, you know what's interesting is the most electable
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: Republicans are center right Republicans in Arizona, but they have
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: a hard time in primaries. Arizona's Republican primary electorate is
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: super conservative. It has always been, right, McCain had an
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: easier time sometimes in general elections, then you know, he
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: sometimes feared the primary more. We've seen that in particularly
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: the state legislature, where you've seen some very electable Republicans
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: lose in primaries and sort of create a mess there.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: So it's always a you know, it's a weird it's
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: a weird electorate and it can be in right now,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: Andy Biggs is the Trump guy. Swikert is considered the
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: you know, the mainstream establishment Republican. Again, if he's the nominee,
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: it's a nightmare for the incombent governor Katie Hoppes. And
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: right now though he's been behind double digits and he's
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: having a hard time catching up, and I you know,
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: it's hard to a Matt this in the way the
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: Republican Party works right now, when you don't have Trump's endorsement,
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have a hard time making up ground. The
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: amount of ground that Swicker has to make up that
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: set the difference. If Andy Biggs is a Republican nominee,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: Arizona governor is never going to get beyond lean Democratic
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: best Dave Schwikert's Republican nominee. This becomes a toss up
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: race in a hurry and probably costs the Democratic Party
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: a lot more money in this political environment. It's Arizona
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: swing state. Like I said, I think Swicker's got a
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: great chance if he's the nominee. I question whether you
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: can get there. But I know if you're in Team
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: Hobbs and you want her to win reelection, you want
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: to face Andy Biggs. Now Number one on the list,
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: of course, is what was the big breaking news on Tuesday,
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: just before the fascinating statement that Donald Trump decided to
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: send by announcing his endorsement of Ken Paxton on Massy
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: primary day, right where he is his You know, the
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: latest test in in how loyal are voters to Donald
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: Trump over elected Republicans that they've known a lot longer.
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: And it's a body blow to Cornyn. The only good
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: news for John Cornyn is that if he does win
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: this runoff next Tuesday, and it is next Tuesday day
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: after Memorial Day. If he does win this runoff, I
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: think the fact that Trump went out of his way
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: not to endorse him and endorsed his opponent, actually makes
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: him a stronger general election candidate and probably takes Texas
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: off the board for Tallarico and for the Democrats. I
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: still think it'll be a competitive race. I think Texas
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: is light red these days, it is not dark red.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: You see these trend lines, You'll see it in the
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: governor's race. This is a state that is getting more
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: competitive all the time, and at some point Democrats are
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: going to break through. They still need some help on
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: what kind of Republicans they face here. Right If Ken
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: Paxson's nominee, this becomes a tier one center race. Paxton
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: has proven to be a terrible fundraiser. Number one. If
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: Paxson's nominee and Donald Trump's endorsement may secure that, it's
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: going to cost the Republican Party a shitload of more money,
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: much more money than they ever planned on spending. It
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: is astonishing to me how much Cornyn has outspent Paxton,
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: how little Paxton has spent, how little he's raised money.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Tallarico is also going to be able to outspend Paxton.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: So this is going to cost Trump and his mega
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: super packs a lot of money to rescue Paxton. But
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: this is the choice they've made. So this is why
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: it's number one. Literally, if it goes in one direction,
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: this is a real race. If it goes in another direction,
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: it's probably not a race. We're talking about that much
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: come October and election night in November. But this has
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: become suddenly a much more consequential runoff. And you know
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: it's interesting when Trump does these last minute things like
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: this is a real this is a real shot in
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: the arm to Paxton because I felt like Cornyn was starting.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say he got momentum, but Cornyn
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: has proven to hold up a lot better than a
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: lot of us expected. He's massively outspent Paxton. But I
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: will say this, if Paxson's nominee, the corruption argument that
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: Tallarico can make that links Paxton and Trump right, Trump's
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: already building this kleptocracy, as I talked about earlier in
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: this episode, it's a very powerful possibility. And I'll tell
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: you this, if I were Greg Abbott, I'd be scared Jesus. Now,
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: if Paxton is the nominee, it's going to attract more
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: money into the state, It's going to put more resources
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: on the ground for Democrats. It's going to make that
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: governor's race even closer. I've already I've been on the
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: record here that I think this is one of the
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: more overlooked statewide races in the country. I think this
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: is destined to be low single digits, not high single digits,
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: which in itself would be a big deal. I've told
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: you about the school voucher issues, very divisive. This is
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: this is one of those you know, education is one
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: of those issues where you know, governor's race, you can
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: peel off voters from the other side. You know, I'm
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: a little skeptical that Gina, you know, as being from
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: from Austin, is going to be portrayed as just too
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: liberal to be governor of the state. But boy, would
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: this change the dynamics of of everything up and down
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: the ballot. And it might, you know, if this is
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: let me put it this way, the Trump endorsement of
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: Paxton is proof Donald Trump does not care about the
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: Republican Party. If he cared about the Republican Party and
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: keeping the Republican Party strong, regardless of these whether these
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: Republicans were good Trump Republicans, he'd be with Cornyan Cornan
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: guarantees probably two more House seats for down the ballot.
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: You flipped this the other way, it actually puts more
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: Republican House seats in play, puts the governor seat in play,
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: and could trans This could be one of those where
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: Paxton opens the door for real democratic investment in Texas
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: that turns Texas from a light red state to a
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: swing state. You know, I told I gave you that
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: history of Texas a few episodes back, you know, but
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: the importance of the John Tower victory the first time
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: Republicans broke through. John Tower wins a special Senate election,
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: and what does it do. It suddenly opens the spicgott
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: of money for investment into the state. And then within
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: the next you know, basically within ten years, Texas becomes
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: a swing state and within twenty years it becomes a
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: strong Republican state. That's that to me, is is how
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: big this Paxton corner Cornyn runoff has now become. So
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: there you go number one on this week's Top five,
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: the Texas Senate Republican runoff. The Toodcast Top five list
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  Speaker 1: dot com. Slash Predicts Slash Bonus offer terms. Ask Chuck
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: all right, let's do a little Ask Chuck all right.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: First question comes from Ron and he writes, Hey, on
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: the Virginia re districting issue, do you think the State
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: Supreme Court truly couldn't have acted before the election? I
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: understand the reasoning, but the explanation for not intervening earlier
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: didn't feel entirely convincing to me. Is there a scenario
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: where courts should step in sooner in cases like this,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: even if it's unusual procedurally? Anyway? Hey, I love the podcast. Ron. Well, Ron,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: there's two things here. You're asking the question through the
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: prism of the court, but the legislature was trying to
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: jam the court. Right, This is sort of there's two
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: sides to this coin. Right. The legislature could have delayed
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: things a bit and waited for the ruling. There was
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: still a little more time to move the primary even
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: further back, move filing deadlines. But they were balancing something, right.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: They knew they had some momentum. They knew they had
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: some political momentum. There had already been the other redistricting
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: referendum in November twenty twenty five. They had sort of this.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: They were trying to just keep it going and keep
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: it moving. So, yes, you could look the Court could
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: have intervened, but they were trying to do one comprehensive ruling.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: You could they could have. You know, they were certainly
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: reluctant to sort of step in in the middle of
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: an election that the legislature already said would happen. I
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: think the legislature thought they could jam the court by
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: basically daring them to overturn an election, even though they
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: knew going in there was still some questions about the
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: constitutionality of this. So I think this was a bit
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: of a high stakes game of chicken here between the
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: legislature and the judiciary branch, is probably one way to
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: look at it. The cleanest thing would have been the
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: legislature waiting for a clean ruling, but they chose not
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: to do that, and so look nobody that none of
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: this was I think no matter what, there was going
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: to be a feeling, no matter where you are on
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: this issue, that you felt like the system was being
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: gained against you right, no matter which side of this
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: that you feel. I think at this point those on
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: the who wanted to see this remap go through feel
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: like the court somehow gained it against it. I think
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: had it not gone through, there have been other you know,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: So this is I think you're letting the legislature a
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: bit off the hook here, right. They decided to jam
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: the court, and you know, and and put they decided
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: to put the court in the situation of all right,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: go ahead, we'll hold our election, then you can do
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: your ruling, hoping that they could influence the ruling too.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: So again, I think this is I think the legislature
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: rushed things a little bit and they should have had
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: a better They should have a better answer to this,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: all right. Brad in Waxhaw, North Carolina rights Hey, long
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: time listener, first time emailer, loved your recent comments about
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: road trips. My family was been doing the same and
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: has hit thirty states so far with our kids. I'm curious,
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: are there any road trips that really stood out to
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: you or places you'd recommend exploring? Always looking for new ideas.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: Thanks again, Yes. So, when I lived for a brief
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: period of time in Boulder, Colorado, back in the right
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: after college, and a friend of mine from college got
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: into this terrible car accident, and my girlfriend at the
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: time and I decided to we couldn't afford to fly.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: He got of cars and he was in La. He
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: was in the hospital and we decided to drive to
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: La to go be with him, be with his family,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: and so we drove from Boulder to LA and I
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: had never done that trip. It is I think the
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: most scenic drive I've ever taken. Utah might be the
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: most beautiful state I've ever driven in. It's just you know,
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: the red rocks, all that stuff. Just it's it's stunning.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: It really is. By the way, you get to drive
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: through the rockies, right, you're going to the other side,
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: to the to the western slope. You drive through Utah,
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: Northern Arizona. You know, I'd only been to Phoenix and Tucson.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: Northern Arizona is like an entirely different you know, you're like,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: why does anybody live in Phoenix? When you drive through
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: northern Arizona. Just again, incredibly, the only ugly part of
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: the drive was eastern California. Right, you could sort of
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: see that the almost like this dust bowl this you know,
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: it's sort of you hit riverside and suddenly, you know,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: everything gets I didn't realize how deserty eastern California felt like.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: It felt like like are we in Nevada. It's like,
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: no it's eastern Uh, it's it's eastern California. But the
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: just the Utah and northern Arizona portions of that trip.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: And again it was just something I never would have
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: ended up on that road trip unless you do the
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: specific trying to go denver La and and and that's
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: the road I took. That was that's one I loved.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you a trip I want to do that
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: my dad's sister, my aunt did. She lives in Alaska now.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: She drove to move to Alaska. Her son lives in
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: Alaska from essentially just outside of Detroit, Michigan, all the
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: way to Anchorage. And she has told me it's just
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: such a beautiful drive to drive in that northern part
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: of the country, drive through Canada. So I'll admit, that's
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: one that takes a long time, right, that's a that's
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: a big, big road trip, and it's a little bit
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: better to do in the summer than if you're going
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: to do it, uh in the winter. But that's a
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: that's one that's on my bucket list of drives still
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: left to do. But the but one I've done that
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: i'd recommend is that denver La, just for the op
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: ortunity to be in Utah, northern Arizona. All right, Chris
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: from Moresville, North Carolina here, and he writes a long
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: time listener second time writing in, I really appreciate your
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: recent reflections on this year's graduates and the resilience of
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: this gen Z cohort coming out of COVID. Made me
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: wonder about your skepticism around third parties given the growing
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: distrust in institutions among younger voters, are we closer than
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: ever to real shift away from the two party system
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: or do the structural barriers still make that unlikely in
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: the near term things? Right, you do keep preaching expand
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: the house, Chris, Well, thanks for that. Yes on cap
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: the House, uncap the House. Look, I think if any
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: generation is going to blow up the two party system,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: it's clearly this gen Z generation. Right, They're pretty they
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: have come in. Institutions have failed them, right, the educational
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: institutions have failed them. Governmental institution, you know, they I
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: look at my son's skepticism about government in general, and
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: it's his own personal experiences going through COVID with the
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: school system and whatnot. So it is if there's ever
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: you know, and I do think you know, I brought
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: up earlier in this episode the kleptocracy issue with Trump.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: I think what he's doing to the Republican Party is
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: certainly making it easier for essentially ethical conservatives to bolt
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: and to try to start something new. If indeed Trump
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: is going to essentially make turn the Republican Party into
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: a full on kleptocracy party, there's going to be people
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: who don't want to be a part of that, who
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: still believe in you know, limited government and free markets
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: things like that. So and you know, if somehow the
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: institution of the Democratic Party can't beat this corruption, then yeah,
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: I think they're both fairly vulnerable. Look, the issue you
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: have is the structural barriers, right the duopoly. If it
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: wasn't for ballid access, if it wasn't for the fact
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: that states have essentially allowed these two parties to embed
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: themselves in the system, I think they both you know,
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: we we'd see here what already happened in the UK,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: where the top two parties are no longer the Tories
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: in labor at this point. If the if the if,
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: if you know, for the at least, if you believe
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: all the polling for the for the next time, there's
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: an election, so I certainly think this generation is the
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: most likely to drive it if it happens. What I will,
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: what I do believe is this generation is going to
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: be decisive in either making sure one party overthrows the
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: other one completely, or that there is a new party
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: of some form or a new movement. But this is,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: you know, this is a generation that will I think
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: they can quickly help enhance a following fast. Right. This
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: isn't this isn't a slow build anymore. This is something
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: that could happen at this you know, happen much quicker
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: than I think folks realize. You know it is you know,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: I've always I've thought about this all the time. If
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: Ross Perot had today's technology in nineteen ninety two, I
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: don't know if he would have. I don't think he
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: would have lost, and I think he would have been
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: I think he would have rattled both parties to the
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: point that he might have seen a change of nominees
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: in both parties. Because he would have he would have
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: it would have been a rocket ship with the way
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: stuff goes viral and all of that. So I am
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: not going to underestimate the speed of this media environment.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: Being an accelerant to something that totally disrupts the two
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: party system. You know, this is where it's like, I
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: look at the facts of how everything is embedded and
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: how hard it is to sort of break, you know,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: literally get on the ballot if you're an independent, depending
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: on the state, things like that. Right, So, sometimes I
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: get blinded by the structural barriers. But if you actually
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: think about how easily we've seen institutions disrupted, you know,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: there are times that I wonder why aren't like, you know, hey,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: stop stop looking granularly right, lift back up, and from
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: sixty thousand feet this looks like a no brainer that
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: the two parties that it's just a matter of time
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: before at least one of them totally shatters. Next question
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: comes from Chris D. Frederick turd Ervignia, and he writes, Hey,
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: I really appreciate you and your point of view on
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: the various topics that you discussed in your podcast and substack.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: My question for you is what do you think President
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: Trump will be like once he leaves office. I realize
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: he is always going to be looking to stay in
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: the news cycle, but do you think that he really
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: that he will garner the attention he wants from the
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: various news and media outlets. Do you believe that those
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: organizations will continue to cover him in what he does
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: and says on a daily basis or do you think
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: that they will move on from him once he leaves office?
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: Things again, So I'm going to be very careful here.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: I know, I think last week I told you I
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: was traveling quite a bit and I was sort of
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: hobnobbing with a lot of people in the know. And
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: that's going to just be very general about it, because
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: these were all off the record or Chathamhouse rule settings.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: But this discussion of what's Trump like after the presidency,
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: So there's somebody who's pretty pretty well informed about sort
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: of various business deals he's involved with or could be
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: involved with. And I don't know if you've paid attention
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: to this idea that Amazon has floated about bringing back
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: The Apprentice. So The Apprentice is actually owned and controlled
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: by MGM. Amazon bought MGM, So there's some talk about
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: relaunching The Apprentice on Prime and it was like it
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: would be a Donald Trump junior vehicle or all this stuff.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: And it's like, let's just say this person who knows
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: a little thing or two about this situation. Said, this
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: is Donald Trump's post presidency plan. And this person said,
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know it, but this is what it screams
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: to me. And I sat back and absorbed that a minute,
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: and I said, oh, my God, of course it is.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: And here's a few things you need to understand about
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump. He's a man of habit and he wants
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: creature comforts. So, for instance, during The Apprentice, NBC built
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: a set in Trump Tower. Right. He didn't even have
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: to go to the New York studios of New York,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: either in Rockefeller Center or in Brooklyn where they had
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: some other studios. He just had to, you know, put
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: on his slippers and go down this and go down
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: the elevator. I think it was the fifth floor. Not
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent sure, but I think it was the
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: fifth floor. Well, do you think Jeff Bezos and Amazon
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: would build a studio mar Lago? Yeah? And can you
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: imagine him putting together some form of this because he
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: just wants to hold court. Yeah. Is he a man
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: who likes to do things the way he's always done things? Yes?
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: Has he turned the White House into mar A Lago? Yes?
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: Has he turned the Oval office into the Trump organization. Yes,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: So betting on him returning to something he's done before
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: is the bet I would make coming back to relaunch
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: and host a new form of The Apprentice. I know
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: that would sound ridiculous five years ago. Please, I'm not
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: saying I'm predicting it, but that's one of those I'm
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: not even going to be shocked or surprised. You know,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: we sometimes play with that cliche, are you surprised but
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: not shocked? Are you shocked but not surprised? In some ways,
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: if he's healthy enough, it's his way of just inserting
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: himself into the zeitgeist. I don't imagine him being a
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: talk show host. That's not what he's doing. He didn't
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: care what other people have to say. If he gets
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: to just go return to who you know, he gets
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: to be this sort of manufactured persona that he had
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: created and that he has created, right, I do only
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: think he is. He's so far away from being like
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: a normal human, right he is sort of this manufactured
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: persona that now is what he You know, it's some
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: I think it used to be an act, but it's
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: been an act for so long. I don't know if
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: he knows how to not do it anyway. I am
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: bet on him coming back to The Apprentice. I don't
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: think we'll Gary Busey back, but maybe he'll bring back
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: Thomas Massey, Bill Cassidy, right, and he'll say who wants
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: my loyalty back? JD. Vance joked that he wants to
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: turn it into The Apprentice, right, the battle between him
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: and Rubio. There's probably a thirty percent chance Donald Trump
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: moderates the first debate between Rubio and Vance, and he'll
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: might do it on what will eventually become the Apprentice set.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: Here's what I would say. I know that all sounds ridiculous,
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: but what's the one lesson of the Trump era failure
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: of imagination? All? Right? Rob from San Francisco, rightes Hey,
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: your recent comments and Rob saying leading crowds in America
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: the beautiful resonated with me, proof that voters are hungry
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: for something different. It got me thinking, what if a
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight candidate's been every Saturday in twenty twenty
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: seven on a listening tour at the geographic center of
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: each state. Most of the centers are in small towns
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: and farming that never see a presidential candidate. Would that
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: kind of symbolism to reach forgotten communities matter or would
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: the press lose interest by week three and it be
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: seen as a gimmick? Would love your take. Look, things
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: are gimmicks if you only do them a couple of times.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: Things resonate if you do it consistently and don't stop. Right,
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: My podcast a couple of times a year is a gimmick.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: My podcast three times a week on a set schedule,
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: right is over time you embed it and I say this,
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not trying to, you know, do what most people
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: do with things and politics, make it about themselves. But
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: the point is is that I've really believed that in
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: anything I've ever done in any which is you know,
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: consistency is how you build an audience, build a movement.
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: Anybody can have a viral moment, but if you're if
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: you stick to this and you're consistent about it, I
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: think that's a fascinating idea. I could picture a guy
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: like rama Manuel taking taking taking you up on this idea,
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: you know, and if I were, you know, he's the
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: type of candidate who's you know, coming in with what
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: I'd say is resume baggage. Right, he is, he is
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: going to have to. He's going to have to work
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: harder to make the case he can be a change candidate,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: given that his resume screams establishment. But he's been trying
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: to do some different things, like he's doing this bike
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: tour across New Hampshire, which I think is fascinating where
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: and you know, he wants to also show off that
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: he's fit and young. Right, it's you know, can you
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: imagine Donald Trump on a bicycle? Frankly, you know, it's
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: kind of hard to see. I could see, So I like,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think your idea is a good one,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: and there are various ways an effort. I think if
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: you want to make an effort like that stick, though,
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: you have to do it every week, right, you cannot
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: take a week off, you know, you have to be
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: there all the time, you know. But yes, that is
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: how you build him. I mean, in a couple of days,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: we're going to have an interview with Lamar Alexander. I've
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: already done the interview, but it's going to air on
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: my next episode of the podcast. And he won his
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: first race for governor. It was his second race. He
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: lost the first time. The second time he runs, he
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: decides to walk across the state, stays in all these houses.
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: It was a it was a gimmick. It was a
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: gimmick that was first popularized by a Florida Democrat named
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: Latin Chiles. Walk in Lawton was his name, and he
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: walked the state, you know, from Pensacola down to Miami.
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: And what Lamar did was walk across Tennessee and the
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: famous plaid shirt of Lamar's if those of you know
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: your political history and know the plaid shirt, and yes
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: it's a gimmick, but he didn't. You know, he did
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: it over a long period of time. Jimmy Carter essentially
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: did that all around Iowa and his first caucuses, and
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: it's what it So, this stuff works, but you got
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: to stick with it, and you've got to do it
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: even on days that there's only one media outlet showing up,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: because this is not about getting national attention. This is
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: about resonating locally. Next question comes from Jennifer w and Arvada, Colorado, Vada,
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: one of the great suburban towns of Denver and Jennifer Wright, Hey,
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: I really enjoy the podcast. In your analysis, in your
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: list of top potential Democratic candidates, you mentioned Pete Buotagen
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: and Bernie Sanders, but neither has historically shown strong support
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: with black voters. You are correct, particularly in the South,
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: given how critical that constituency is in Democratic primaries, could
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: either realistically win without significantly improving in that area. And
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: have you seen meaningful efforts from either to build those relationships.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: It's an excellent point, and I'm going to be honest.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: I think both Sanders and Bootajidge would say that they
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: have made some efforts, but I've not seen them come
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: to fruition yet. I certainly think that. Look, I think
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: Bootajidge has a better shot than Bernie does. I think
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: Bernie's problem is his ideology. Black voters, particularly in the South,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: are are more culturally conservative than progressive voters. They're very
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: loyal Democrats, i'd say, more mainstream liberal voters, and so
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: I think that that, you know, one of the biggest
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: mistakes people make with Black voters in the Democratic Party
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: if they don't know the Democratic Party right, is assuming
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: that a loyal constituency to the Democratic Party automatically means
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: they must be the ideologically, you know, closest to the base,
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: and that is not the case with African American voters.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: They're very loyal to the Democratic Party, but not necessarily
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: to the progressive base. And actually we've seen this quite
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: some time, and there's plenty of primaries we've seen in
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: African American communities where the more mainstream liberal defeats the
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: more progressive candidates. So I think that's Bernie's problem. Pete's problem,
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: I think stemmed from early on, and I think this.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: I think Pete is more fixable. He just needs to
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: spend more time in African American churches in the South,
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: and the fact that I have not seen a lot
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: of evidence that he's done that. Maybe he has, but look,
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: you know, and some of this stuff can sometimes be
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: done and people not notice it. You know, Barack Obama
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: did not have a lot of strong relationships with some
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: key black church leaders in the South when he first
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: got to the Senate in two thousand and four because
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: he was just busy being an Illinois politician, but very
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: quietly in two thousand and five and two thousand and six,
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: and I remember learning this later, and it certainly came
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: he would pretty much, which once or twice a month,
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: make a trip to a key Ame church in the South,
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: you know, whether it was in Birmingham, Jackson, Mississippi, Atlanta, Columbia, Charleston,
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: you know, all over the South, getting to know a
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: lot of these black church leaders in the South who
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: are just crucial in some ways to democratic organizing among
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: black voters in the South. If early twenty twenty seven,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: I see Pete Boodagigs or Bernie Sanders doing this every
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: weekend in the first six months, that will tell me something.
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: But it's certainly what I'd be doing if I were them.
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: But it's an excellent observation. You're not wrong that that's
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: the you know, if they don't solve that problem, they're
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: not going to be able to break through. Next question
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: comes from Doug in southa Coding. He writes, Greetings, Really
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: appreciate the work you're doing. We need it. I've been
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: trying to connect a few dots around Trump's comments on Gaza,
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: Jared Kushner's role in the Middle East discussions, and recent
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: tensions involving Iran. Is there any credible basis to concerns
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: about personal or political interest shaping form policy decisions in
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: that region? Or is that reading too much in two
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: separate events, Doug, No, I mean, I'm laughing here. Because
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: I just spent the last couple of days sort of
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: doing a deep dive into all of the financial entanglements
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: that Trump has allowed to happen with his family in
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: the Middle East, and it is there's no doubt. And
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: by the way, there's a lot of in some of
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 1: the there's a lot of good reporting in Israel about
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: some of this. These same forces that have created this
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: transactional you know, with that Jared Kushner's in business with
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: at the Golf States, that bb net now who and
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: his allies and associates have also financially benefited from the
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: Golf State crowd as well, and that that it does
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: feel as if that it is overlapping with foreign policy
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: goals in addition to financial goals, and so I think
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: it's impossible to disaggregate it. And I think this is
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: what makes Kushner and Witcough not just flawed negotiators, but
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: frankly unqualified. They're they're they're unqualified on their knowledge. So
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 1: but set that aside, they're unqualified because they're I think
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: that they're compromised financially right, They're essentially negotiating with entities
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: that will be deciding how valuable some of their investments
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: or assets are in the region, So I don't think
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: you're reading too much in it on that front. I mean,
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: you know, the question is you know how you know
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: how direct? Is is this about, you know, Jared Kushner
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: trying to essentially profit off of redeveloping the Gaza strip, right,
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: And I think we're probably a little further away on
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: having connecting all those dots. But I think the decision
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: to do this around war, I think when you look
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: at sort of the personal financial relationships between the UAE, Saudi's,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: the Trump family, Trump family friends, then there's Cutter. Cutter's
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: sort of Cutter throws money around to try to make
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: friends with everybody, including folks in Israel. So it's the
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: The difficult thing about this story is that it it's
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: sort of almost like, uh, if you're a fan of
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: it's always Sonny when when Charlie does his imitation of
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: a beautiful mind and he's doing bird Law and he's
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: got all of his crazy stuff, right, and if you've
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: seen that meme, I will confess to being a big
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: fan of Sonny what I call uh, I refer to
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: Sonny as sort of Seinfeld for the for for everybody else, right,
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: you know, it's sort of more crude, a more crass
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: version of of Seinfeld, but just as funny and sometimes
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: even funnier. But the reality is all of the connections
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: and the dots that you could put together of Middle
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: East financial compromised issues, overlaid on foreign policy, overlaid on
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: all of this, it's almost so complicated it's hard to
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: create the clear narrative to simplify it. But yes, it
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: is to me, it's impossible to disaggregate all this all right.
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: Last question comes from Greg who calls himself a former
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: debuker and current Central Illinois resident. Let's hear it for Dubuque, Iowa.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: My late grandmother is buried in top Kaiwa, that was
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: her hometown. Hey, mis Jodd, I'm curious with the power
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: of Trump and the GOP because it still looks like
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: you can win primaries with him. That is something he
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: has been going that has been going on for years.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: Will the other fact be true or more telling, that
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: you can't win a general election with him as an
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: exiled iowand I thank you for all the mentions of Iowa.
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: I too, hope one day they will start doing the
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: right thing. Again, Greg former Debuker. Look, that's what these
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: general elections are going to tell us, right, This is
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: why Paxton Cornyn I think is now that much more consequential.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: And we are starting to see Donald Trump do what
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: he did to his party in twenty twenty two, which
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: is saddle Republicans with weak nominees who are vulnerable to
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: losing general elections because of all the flaws that they have,
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: but Trump supports them because you know they sucked up
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: to him, they're loyal to him, or you know they
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: were willing to promote lies that he wanted promote. It.
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: That's going to be the we're going to find out,
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: right And I think, you know, a Paxton victory really
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: deals a blow to whether this stuff matters right right
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: when if he wins the whole Senate race. So I look,
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: I think Ramaswami's biggest problem in a general election in
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: Ohio is going to be his connections to Trump. I
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: think Paxton is going to have his own issues, but
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: you throw on Trump, well, you know it's that's a
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: double edged sword because in some of these places, the
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: Trump endorsement fires up the base and they certainly are
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: trying to figure out how to get Trump voters to
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: show up for midterms. So that implies why there's still
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: some hesitance of decoupling from Trump even in even when
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: you're in general elections. But I think that's an important
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: I think this is an important thing to follow in
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. Will Trump's endorsement be cost elections in
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six? Trump's endorsements of the wrong candidates cost
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: Republicans twenty two twenty two, But I would argue Trump
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: himself didn't cost them those races, right, And I think
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: that's the question about twenty twenty six. Does Trump does
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: just simply making something a referendum on Trump become enough
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: to disqualify general election candidate? That happening is a big deal, right.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: What Trump has done so far is he's he is.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: He seems to find the flawed candidates, and he gets
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: behind the less electable candidates and they prove to be
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: what less electable? What I think is not clear yet
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: is whether his endorsement all on its own creates the
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 1: conditions that the person's less electable, and that is something
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: we haven't quite yet experienced. Well, there you go. That's
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: questions for this episode. Hey, I'm gonna, you know, pat
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: myself on the back and my first you know sports
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: where the sponsorships that I had to picked something. I
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: told you to ride the Spurs early, but fade them late.
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: I turned out to be wrong on the late fade
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: right about the early aspect of this. Let's be honest,
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: if you watched any part of that Spurs Thunder game,
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: particularly if you watch the last quarter. Here's let me confess.
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: I watched the last quarter in the two overtimes. I
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: was watching an extra inning Gnats game that somehow got
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: so out of hand in the twelfth inning the Nats
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: had to bring in a position player to finish the job,
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: and that became this long debate about whether this was
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: violating the rule because it's supposed to be an eight
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: run rule before you can bring in a position player.
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: But basically, the Nats were out of arms in their
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: bullpen and they realized that the game was probably out
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: of reach. So I will admit I was mesmerized that.
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: But then you flip over and it's amazing that game
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: one literally lived up to all the expectations. I think
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 1: a lot of us hope for, like this is our
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: NBA Finals, right, the bronze medal game. The bronze medal
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: series is Nicks versus Calves. Could be fun. There might
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: be some great moments in Madison Square Garden, but it's
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: for third place. Let's not pretend, you know, yes, technically
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: one of them is going to make the NBA Finals,
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: so they can lose in either five or six to
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: the Thunder or the Spurs. But oh my goodness, let's
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: just maybe the Thunder wins four games to one and
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: and the Wembee game one is an aberration. And I
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: don't think that's what we watched Monday night. I think
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: we saw something that has just changed. Like it's like
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: Magic Johnson playing center in the first in that in
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: the in his rookie year, where you're like, oh, this
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 1: is this is something different. It's like when Steph Curry
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: transformed the league with the power of the three pointer,
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: and you really and he took over. When he finally
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: took over a series and they got to that and
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: they won that first championship, it was like, Oh, this
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: is something's changed. That's what it felt like. Everything people
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: imagined that Wemby could do or be was on Monday night.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: A forty twenty game. Think about it, a forty twenty game.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: That's Wilt, that's Russell. I forget Will, that's Russell. Wow.
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure Kareem had a forty twenty. He probably
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: had a forty. I'm sure he's had at least one
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: forty twenty somewhere in there, at least in a regular season.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: But we saw something last night on Monday Night that
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: was that was just I think now it's like, he's
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: a big guy. He's a tall guy. He looks fragile
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: sometimes when he falls, it looks like a baby giraffe,
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: like like falling and you're like, oh my god, I
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: hope they can get up. But barring him, you know,
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: is you know who can stop Wemby. It was at
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: one point when cheded Holmgren, who who you know? It's funny.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: Wemby looks smooth Homegren, who's basically almost as tall, right,
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: just as lanky. There's a little bit of I don't
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: want to clunkiness is too strong of a word, because
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: he's a he's a great athlete. I don't want to
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: come back boy. Compared to Wemby, it right looks a
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: little clunky. But when he boy, when he blocked that
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 1: shot of Wenby's that sort of forced the next overtime.
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: You were just like, man, who if from the who
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: is gonna These are the only two teams that are
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: going to be able to touch each other for a
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: for a while. Now this is two years, this is
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: three years. All of it depends on whether Wemby becomes
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 1: fragile or not. But man, that was just a pleasure
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: to watch. You know, I have no rooting interest in this.
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: I love watching I mean, I'm I'm in did In Wemby,
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: and I don't always love watching the thunder. But wow,
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: I think that was a moment and and we know
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: when the moment hit it's the twenty eight foot three
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: pointer that the seven that the eight foot guide did.
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: I think every single person I follow on X reacted
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: to that shot. It was just when it was just
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: like and that was it was, you know, as a
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: reminder that there is still some good social media. Right,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: this was like we're all, you know, games late at night,
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: we're in overtime. You know, people are probably watching in bed,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: and yet we all wanted to collectively react with each other. Right.
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: That was sort of a reminder of when social media
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: isn't that positive? We all wanted to sort of share
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: this experience for a brief moment together, and you know,
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: for for one second there, Elon Musk couldn't destroy that
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: part of X just yet. So I have to say
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: I enjoyed that brief period of X reminding us when
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: Twitter was fun. All Right? With that, I'm gonna put
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: a pin in that. Appreciate you watching our live stream
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Appreciate your watching everything we do here. Don't
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: forget to like and subscribe, and I'll see you in
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: twenty four hours