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NCAAF Week 9 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all all in four, I
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: have not had a good season. Man with wookends the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat Man,
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the bruins
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man's back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I can possibly have with you,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as I always am until I die at least oh
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: To the slump, perise, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I should do at this point other than potentially end
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: it all. What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: This is better off dead. College football Week nine edition
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: is an already Week nine. Holy shit, looks like we're
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: about to have a three and one day tonight with
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: the NBA with of course the only loser being my
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: boss is Celtics, who can kiss my ass. After they
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: were winning by eight at the end of the first quarter,
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: they decided to I believe, allowed the Knicks to put
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: up a forty two to fourteen second quarter I think
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: is what it was, and then the Celtics almost came
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: back kind of. I don't think they ever got back
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: within the number, but they made I think they cut
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: it to like eight, and I'm like, are.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: They actually gonna come back?
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: No, of course not, but I believe the Pistons at
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: least covered. I think they might have won outright. Actually,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: the Pistons that game went into I did it go
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: into overtime. I don't know.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: Maybe they didn't went out right. I don't fucking know.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: They covered though, and I'm pretty sure we're about to
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: get the Lakers and the Portland Trailblazers to come home.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: So I was correct about the.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Brooklyn Nets covering, by the way, which I did not
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: add to my card. But NBA, we're gonna be off
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: to a five and one start, baby, So that's pretty good.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: Brittany, what's up.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Oh, yes, ma'am. I appreciate. I appreciate the uh. I
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: appreciate all the.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: All the sentiment, all the positive, the positive comments.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Thank you. I didn't think I did that well on it,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: to be honest, but I'll keep putting out those covers.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Covered in UK is my ukulele channel on YouTube. This
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: is sports betting, so if you're interested in sports betting,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: you can you can hang around. But thank you.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: I'm glad people liked that one.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: It was I thought it was like in the realm
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: of Halloween enough and I was gonna do it. I
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: was like, well, you know, it's about death and whatever,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: like why not? Hold on, I gotta check my audio
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: settings here and then I'm gonna get into the college
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: football here, and we'll see if my regulars starts showing up.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: All right, yeah, yeah, oh it's not your bad. I mean,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: hang out, why not if you're interested in it. I'm
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: gonna take my headphones off, cool off my ears here.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: My audio seems good enough. I don't know. People don't.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: People do not come to the show for quality. And
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I was also gonna mention the World Series game was
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: just insane. Dude like Snell was pitching really well and
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: then he just kind of lost it.
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: Maybe they left him in a little bit too long
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: he loaded the.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Bases, or maybe they actually took him out too early
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: because he loaded the Maybe you would have been able
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: to get out of that with less damage. Went from
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: a two to nothing Dodger lead in the fourth inning
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: to them being down I think nine to two by
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: the end of the sixth inning or something like that.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: That was crazy Dodgers five Yeah, I think they had
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: What was that? I think it was a five run inning.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Did I get that math right now? I don't think
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: I did. Maybe it was a seven run inning, that
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: is what it was. Whatever it was, it might have
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: been even worse than that. It might have been a
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: nine running Actually because I just stopped watching it and
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: the game wound up going over. So I was wrong
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: about everything in that game. But I did not give
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: out any plays on that and that is why I
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: did not have a good feeling for that. Obviously, I
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: never get anything wrong on this show College Football. I'm
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: gonna give up four plays on tomorrow's card, which I
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: probably should have just mentioned this earlier in the week,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: because my thoughts have not changed on the college football
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: card or the college Football board, I should say. But
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I was gonna have these four plays. I was like,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: is anything gonna get me off of these? Am I
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: gonna add anymore? I thought I might add a couple more. No,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna go with these four. I'll mention a
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: couple other leans that I have that I think are close.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Let's just I'm gonna jump right into it. Man, I'm
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: gonna jump right into onto the scoreboard here. For some reason,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: I think it's because I on ESPN I have BC
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: listed as one of one of my favorite teams. They
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: throw them at the top even though it's.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: A night game from them.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Oh, let's talk about BC. They're having such a good season,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be at Louisville here at seven thirty on
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: the ACC Network, Louisville five and one team BC one
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: and six BC is just they're worse than we thought
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: that they were. They're usually at least a decently competitive team.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Not this year.
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: Louisville is actually taking the money as well.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: They're up from a twenty three point favorite to a
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: twenty five point favorite. Here seventy percent of the tickets
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: eighty six percent of the cash on Louisville. I don't
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: really agree with that though, Like I would lean to
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: taking the points with with BC in this one because Louisville.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Of course, they're in a huge letdown spot. They're coming
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: off two big games. Actually, I think they did have
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: a buye in between the two, beating or excuse me,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: losing to Virginia in double overtime, which really you could
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: take that game either way because they were the favorite,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: And of course I gave out a losing play on
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Louisville in that one, where I think they did well
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: enough to win that game. It was just bad mistakes
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: at various points in the game. They won the game
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: statistically lost the game on the score where they bounced
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: back in a great way for us because I gave
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: out Louisville on the show at Plus thirteen and a
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: half and they pulled off the outright upset at Miami
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: last Friday night, huge win in primetime. And now they're
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: coming off of that game, they come back home and
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: they get to face Boston College. I just don't see
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: any reason why Louisville is gonna really show up with
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: a lot of focus here and many but maybe BC
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: will when you're a team that's out of it like
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: BC is at this point, I mean, the only games
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: are gonna show up for are gonna be games against
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: good teams, ranked opponents. Maybe this will be a game
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: where they'll show up and actually play with some focus
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: at all. And they're coming off losing to Yukon, which
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: is just I mean, even for BC, that's a low point.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: I think Yukon they're having a decent season, but they're
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: still like they're an independent I mean, they're not one
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: of these Power Conference teams. They're kind of a little
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: brother of New England. So I think Yukon did step
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: up there a level of play for that, But man,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: that was a bad game for BC, and BC I
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: don't even know what's going on with their quarterback situation.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: It looks like they either switch quarterbacks or maybe Lonergan
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: just sucks so bad that they decided to Well, either
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Lonergon got hurt or they switch quarterbacks. I should say,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: but it was such a bad performance from BC, I
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: would lean to taking the points with BC in this one.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I just don't see why you would lay the points
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: of Louisville in this one, even though, yes, I know
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: BC is really really bad, but I just figured OU
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: would talk about that because it is BC. It's at
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: the It's at the top of the college football scoreboard
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: here just because ESPN does that is at number two. Indiana.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: This is the actual noon slate on Fox. Indiana is
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: still an undefeated team. UCLA has won three games in
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: a row. Now firing their coach seems to have sparked
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: the team. They pulled off that ridiculous upset of Penn State,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: who hasn't won a game since losing to Oregon, so
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Penn State just went completely off the rails. UCLA followed
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: that up with a road upset win of Michigan State
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: and then another oh no, not a road win, excuseually
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: a home win against Maryland, which is less crazy because
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Maryland having to travel to the Pacific Coast not really
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: unexpected that UCLA would be able to win that game.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Now UCLA has to travel again. I mean it looks
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: like a lot of travel for UCLA recently, man. I mean,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: going back to September twenty seventh, they had to go
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: to Northwestern so the Chicago are and then they had
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: to go all the way back to the Pacific Coast,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: upset Penn State, fly back out to Michigan State to
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: East Lansing, no time off in between any of these
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: games either, then come back home again to Maryland, and
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: now they're going back out to Indiana. I mean, all
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: this travel, I don't really think this is a very
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: good spot for UCLA. Even the yeah, I mean they'll
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: probably show up with focus. What's ridiculous is that UCLA
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: has one loss in the Big Ten right now, they
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: could actually make the Big Ten championship game. Highly unlikely
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: but technically possible. Uh. They're not gonna like not be
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: focused in this game. But the travel spot just looks
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: really bad for them to me. Whereas Indiana, I mean,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: they're just staying at home. They're off of a win
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: over in Michigan State that was just expected, so I
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: would actually probably lean towards laying the points in this
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: one with Indiana. Ucla actually has been hyped up enough
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: recently that they're a public underdog here.
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: Makes no sense to me.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: I don't understand why the public wouldn't still be on
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: this undefeated Indiana team that has a really good offense,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: but sixty two percent of the tickets only fifty two
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Ucla side taking the points.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Indiana is up from twenty four to twenty six. Is
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: a favorite here, so if you like Indiana, you lost
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit of value on that. With twenty four
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: being a somewhat key number there, I would still lay
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: it if I was gonna play that game. I don't
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: tend to lay favorites of that magnitude anyway, But just
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: some quick thoughts on that one. Also at noon in
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: ESPN number seven, undefeated Georgia Tech against Syracuse. By the way,
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: I don't think Indiana is actually the second best team
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: in the country. I don't think Georgia Tech is actually
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: the seventh best team in the country. But they're both undefeated,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: so the rankings makers are just gonna elevate them up. Man.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Syracuse was one of the losses for me on my
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: show last week. It was a closer game than it
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: looked on the scoreboard. Man against pit Syracuse actually had
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: a two point conversion attempt to try to cut the
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: game to eight with not that much time left in
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: the game. They missed the two point conversion and then
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Pitt wound up getting another touchdown at the end of it,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: which completely flipped the game to wind up being a
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: seventeen point loss. As what were they at ten to
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: eleven point? Was it a ten point underdrug?
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: I forget whatever it was. I think it was ten.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Syracuse had chances to cover that, man, I mean, neither
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: team put up a lot of offense in the game.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Based on their statistics, probably should not have scored thirty
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: in the game. The yardage difference was not that much
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: different between the two, so Syracuse did play better than
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: it looked on the scoreboard. With a team like Syracuse,
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're not really going anywhere this year. I
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: guess they're still potentially looking to maybe become Bowl eligible.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: They need to win three of their remaining games, which
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: is possible when they have home games against UNC and
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: BC left. If you assume those are both gonna be
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: wins because both of those teams suck, then they just
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: need to get one other win.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: But they have three really difficult road games.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe they will show up, though, I mean they're probably
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: gonna show up and at least try against the team
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: that's ranked seventh, like Georgia Tech. Is Georgia Tech, I mean,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: they kind of have bigger fish to fry, to be honest,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I mean this is a lesser opponent, kind of sandwiched
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: in here between Duke and North Carolina State, so a
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: bit of a North Carolina sandwich that I don't know
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: if it matters that much for Georgia Tech. It's not
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: like the most horrendous spot. But I do think that
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: both these teams had kind of misleading results last week
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: at the very least. Or I think Syracuse was better
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: than they looked on the scoreboard. Duke I think was that.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Or Georgia Tech I think was actually not as good
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: as they looked on the scoreboard. I thought Duke actually
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: had a decent shot to win this game, and Duke
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: did outgain Georgia Tech in this game by close to
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: seventy yards.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: In the game.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: They did lose the turnover battle, but only by one.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: Didn't really see the game, so I don't know exactly
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: what wound up happening. I think Duke did have chances
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: to maybe win that game. Yeah, they were down three
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. It was actually tied going into
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, and then they kind of led it
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: up a little bit right towards the end there. So
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: I would lean to taking the points with Syracuse in
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: this one. Money looks like it's coming in on Georgia
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Tech to some extent, fifty six percent of the ticket
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of the cash on them. Although the
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: line looks like it dropped from seventeen and a half
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: to seven, seventeen being a key number, that is not
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: an insignificant move. Really losing that a hook on the
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: seventeen there. Yeah, I don't have many other thoughts on that.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: It's not a strong opinion by any means on that one,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: but slightly in to taking the points with Syracuse. Also
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: at noon ABC. I don't know which games College Game Day,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: as I always say I never do. This is Old
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Miss at Oklahoma, number eight, Old Miss thirteen Oklahoma. I
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: actually think the rankings for these two teams are basically flipped.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: I don't think Old Miss is as good as the
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: eighth team in the country. I think Oklahoma might be
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than the thirteenth ranked team in
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: the country. And the oddsmakers are telling you basically that
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: that is the case by lining Oklahoma as the favorite
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: here and giving them more than the just home field
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: advantage here throw up from four to five here on
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: the line. Seventy one percent of the tickets are coming
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: in on Old Miss. So this is one of those
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: games where the public sees it. They see the higher
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: ranked team being lined as an underdog, and they think
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: there's value on the underdog here, especially because it's all Miss.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: It's a Lane Kiffin offense. The public loves offense like that,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: so the public is just gonna jump all over that.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: And they are seventy one percent of the tickets. Only
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the cash though, so the bigger
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: money does seem like it's on Oklahoma, and there's a
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: reverse live movement coming in moving Oklahoma up. Oklahoma definitely
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: the better defensive team in this one, and I do
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: tend to lean towards the better defense more often than
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: I lean towards the better offense. Oklahoma's offense isn't exactly bad, though.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: They did have that injury to their quarterback Materier, and
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: he came back and had kind of a lackluster performance
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: I think when he first came back.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: So that was against Texas though, So I'm Texas.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're an elite defense, and you could say
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: what you want about their offense. Their offense is pretty
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: lousy really, but Texas is very very good defensively. So
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna really dock Materier that much for or
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: knock him either one. I'm not gonna dock or knock.
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'll cock him.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not gonna just knock him too
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: much for that performance against Texas. Plus it was his
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: first game back from injury, which just part of the
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: handicap on that When I gave up Texas as a
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: play in that game, that was a winner on the show.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma bounced back nicely with a nice defensive performance last
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: week at South Carolina. It was only Oklahoma's second road
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: game of the season, and they still played pretty well.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Matier didn't do that much offensively, didn't really need to, though.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: Third game back. I think you're gonna get a better
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: performance out of my tier here, especially because Oklahoma's gonna
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: have to score some points to beat Ole Miss here,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: and Ole Miss isn't really as good defensively. I don't
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: think there as good defensively as either Texas or South Carolina,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: to be honest, I also think the spot is better
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: for Oklahoma because they're coming off kind of an easy
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: performance last week, whereas Old Miss I think the spot
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: is actually pretty bad.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: So this is actually close to a play for me.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I was very close to giving out a play on
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma the points with Oklahoma in this one. Ole Miss
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: they're coming off their first loss of the season. And
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: I talk about this, when the team loses, takes their
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: first loss of the season, that game can hang them
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: over into the next game, man, because that kind of
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: throws them off. It's like a complete momentum stopper. They're
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: not used to losing. And it happened against Georgia. Not
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: only did it happen against Georgia, but Ole Miss was
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: winning that game late in the game, and Georgia just
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: made a late run to not only win, but cover
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: the spread. In that one brutal loss for ole Miss
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: in that one, man, And now they have to play
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: a second straight road game, and it's only the third
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: road game of the season. And in their two road games,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: they only beat Kentucky by seven and they lost to
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Georgia last Simo, so they've been significantly worse on the
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: road too. And looking at their schedule, I mean, they've
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: had a pretty weak schedule and they're only good win
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: really is the one against LSU. I mean that is
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: their only good win against LSU at home. They beat
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: them by five at home. Not totally sold on Ole
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Miss here, man, Oklahoma has faced the more difficult schedule.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: They've faced Michigan, Auburn, which I think is an underrated team,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: uh Texas, so they've faced some stronger opponents to some extent. Here, Yeah,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean to Oklahoma in this one, man, oh Miss.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're not gonna be unfocused for a game
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: against Oklahoma, but I mean I think that that may,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe they will actually lack focus a little bit,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: just because I think that last game kind of derailed
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: them a little bit, to be honest. So I like
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: the Oklahoma side in this one for sure. Nate, what's up? Man?
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Hell yeah, dude, I'm I'm definitely
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: tempted to be honest to give out a play in
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma here. I'm thinking about it strongly right now. Do
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: we want five plays here? I don't know, just the
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: way that the way that a'll Mis lost that game
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: was like so brutal. Dude, man, I mean these types
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: of games they like all hit last week like they've
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: been hitting like throughout the season. Man, that lesser ranked
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: team when they're a favorite, it seems like they win
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: like every single time. Pretty much they cover the spread
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: almost every time. Hm. Man, it's tough. I'm very close
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: to this one. I kind of want to do it.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: You like Materia, I mean he's pretty good. I mean
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to think about old Missus quarterbacks,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: to be honest. I mean, Chambliss wasn't even their starting
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: quarterback to start the season. It was Simmons. You know what,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: let's do it. Let's add one more play here. We're
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: gonna go with Oklahoma on the fly here. I won't
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: add any more than this, I don't think, but I
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: do have a couple other leans that I think are
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: pretty strong.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: We're gonna wind up with.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: Five plays here? How about this Oklahoma. Let me just
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: look real quick here, it looks like you can lay.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: The number is kind of all over the place here. Uh,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: it's basically five everywhere. Although let me see what was
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: the How much value were we giving up? If we
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: do play this, it went from four through the four
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: and a half to five. It's not that much of
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: a difference. Really. If you can find a better number,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, go ahead, but yeah, we'll go with Oklahoma
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: minus five extra bet there on the fly.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: There you go.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna move that one up to the top there
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: for now on my in my banners.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: Here, there you go.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma will be a play. Will elevate it, man, we'll
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: elevate it to a play.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: But it's it'll be.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: My weakest of the five. So that means it's gonna
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: be one of the easier wins, right, hopefully. Sometimes when
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: I had a play like that, it actually just loses.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: All Right, what else we got? We're still in the
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: noon slate here. I'm talking about way too many of
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: these games, man, but most of them are pretty interesting.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Virginia at North Carolina. Virginia is undefeated in the ACC.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: The rank sixteenth in the country. They're a one loss
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: team and they're only lost. They probably could have won
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: that game against NC State. North Carolina doesn't have a
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: win in the ACC. Is that right?
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: And I mean, I mean, they just haven't been good.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: I don't know what else to say.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, Bill Belichick seems like he's actually made the
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: team worse. They were without Geo Lopez in a couple
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: other games. North Carolina was their quarterback. He is back,
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: I think because he played last week, but they had
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: to go out to the Pacific Coast and play a
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: primetime game. It doesn't mean they have an extra week,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: an extra day off, excuse me, because they played on
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Friday last week.
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: But they played tough as an underdog.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Man. They actually played pretty well all things considering against Cal.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: It was not really a misleading result in that one.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: They only lost by three. I think they might have
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: actually outgained Cal in the game or this statistically, it
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: was at least close.
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I'd have to dig into it more.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: But they did have to fly across country and now
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: they're having to fly back, so not really the easiest
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: thing to do, especially for a team that's not really
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: used to doing that and almost pulled off an upset,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: So there are some things that I don't like about
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: North Carolina. In the spot, Virginia is coming off a
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: pretty ugly game against Washington State Man where Virginia they
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: had gone into a bye after pulling off an upset
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: of Louisville, so it was not a very good spot
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: for Virginia. It was a bad spot for both teams,
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: Virginia and Washington State.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: Last week, Washington State.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: Was coming up only losing by three to Ole Miss
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: as like a thirty something point underdog, so both teams
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: really didn't line up well in this game in Washington
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: State came close to Virginia, and this one man Virginia
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: only won by two as a double digit favored here,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: I think they were like a sixteen to seventeen point
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: favorite or something like that.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: Yere, so Virginia didn't play well.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: So I actually think the spot is a little bit
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: better for Virginia, even though they haven't been good on
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: the road. Though they lost to NC State like I said,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: and then the Louisville game they probably should have lost,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: So the Louisville's pretty good, so Virginia, I mean, maybe
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: They're not as good as their ranking looks at this point.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: They haven't exactly been totally tested yet.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, their win over Florida State is starting to
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: look worse and worse as Florida.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: State doesn't look that good.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: So but it was a nice win for us on
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: the show Man when everybody thought Florida State was awesome.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: So this is a tough handicap man. I think I
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: do lean to Virginia slightly in this one, though, with
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: the North Carolina travel spot North Carolina almost pulling off
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: an upset last week, Virginia almost losing as a favorite,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: it seems like the spot is more correct for Virginia here.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: The money seems to agree with it, as they're up
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: from a nine to a ten and a half boy favorite,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: which really says more about how bad North Carolina is
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: than how good Virginia is. Eighty three percent of the tickets,
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of the cash on Virginia. If you
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: do like them, you've lost some value there because it
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: has gone through that key number of ten there. But
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: that is the way that I would lean in that game.
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Although they are also public, but it looks like the
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: public and the professionals are all on that. We're still
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: in the noon slate. Here we got number eighteen South Florida,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: undefeated in the American Conference, six and one overall against
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: six and one Memphis, who was ranked.
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: Until they like shit the bed last week.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: I thought both these teams were in bad spots last
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: week and South Florida dominated and Memphis was awful. But
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: you know that when that's the case, I actually want
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: to lean to the team that was awful in the
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: previous game, So I leaned towards Memphis in this one.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: I think South Florida is overrated for one thing. I mean,
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: I think both these teams are not like worthy of
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: being ranked in the top twenty five. But South Florida,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, they do keep rolling. Everybody remembers their big
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: wins at the beginning of the season against Boise, but
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: Boise just made a ton of mistakes. It was an
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar travel spot for them. Florida. We know Florida has
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: been way up and down, kind of a mess there.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: Other than that South Florida, their only other tests was Miami,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: and Miami blew them out, which was a win for
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: us on the show there. Since then, South Florida has
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: just been rolling through teams that aren't that good, except
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: they did put up a good performance against North Texas, who,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: by the way, North Texas their quarterback tonight mess to maker.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: He set a new record for quarterback passing yards in
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: a single game in college football, I think, or in
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: FBS or whatever. I think he had like six hundred
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: and ten yards or something tonight against against Charlotte. That
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: North Texas offense is good, their defense is not. South
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Florida was able to just light them up. And then
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: South Florida I thought they were in a sandwich spot
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: last week, and they still just easily beat FAU last week,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: So it's not like it was a difficult game or
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: anything like that. But I do think South Florida might
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: look a little bit too good after that game. Whereas Memphis,
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: they were also in a bad spot last week, which
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: I pointed out on the show last week, and they
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: actually took an outright loss. Memphis had gone into a bye,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: and I think that by just really stopped their momentum
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: and Memphis had to go to UAB last week. They
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: lost the game outright as like twenty one something point
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: favorite in that game, something like that. But part of
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: the reason they lost is because Lewis was injured in
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: the game. So Brendan Lewis, I think is his name.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: He was on Nevada last year. He's Memphis quarterback this year.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: He got hurt in the game, so maybe they would
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: have been able to pull out a win if he
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: didn't go down. They had to bring in Hill as
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: a backup quarterback there. So if you're gonna look, if
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: you're looking at this game here, you got to see
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: what's gonna happen with the quarterback situation from Memphis. But
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: either way, I think I still like Memphis here because
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: you're either gonna get Lewis is gonna come back, and
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna be a reverse injured player spot because
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: Lewis played last week.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: He just got hurt during the game last week.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: So there's not gonna be any like. It's gonna just
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: be you know, you'll still have that continuity with Lewis
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: being there if he does just play in this game,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: But if he doesn't and it's Hill's first start, then
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: you'll get a little bit of extra value on Memphis
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: if that's the case. So it'll be the injured player spot,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: and you know, Memphis is gonna show up and play
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: hard if Lewis is out. They're gonna play hard anyway,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: even if he's not out. So I think either way,
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Memphis is actually the side that I would lead to
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: in this game. Again, they lost to UAB, just ridiculous.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: One thing I forgot to mention that maybe should have
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: elevated UAB to a play last week. I keep missing
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: the fired coach spot. Man UAB was in a fired
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: coach spot last week. They fired Trent Dilfer. Was Trent Dilfer,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: former NFL quarterback and Super Bowl winning quarterback with the
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: most elite defense of all time of the Baltimore Ravens
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: in two thousand or whatever. Dilpher was uab's coach and
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: they fired him. Things are not going well and UAB
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: played well for the interim coach there, and I think
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: Memphis they were coming out of that momentum halting by
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: and they had this big game up next. So it
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: was a bad spot for Memphis as well. Long story shorts.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: Although I like to.
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: Give you all my analysis, man, maybe it's too detailed,
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: but I like Memphis in this one. It looks like
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Lewis might not be playing because South Florida is up
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: from a three and a half way favorite to a
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: six point favorite now, and I don't think that move
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: was like the market doing it.
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: Even though South.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Florida is public, which you would expect them to be
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the tickets on them, only fifty
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash, So the bigger money seems
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: to be fading South Florida here. But I think so
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: that's kind of why I think that the line move
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: of three points. I mean, if you have the bigger
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: money coming in basically towards Memphis, the line's not gonna
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: move two and a half points towards South Florida. So
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: I think that indicates that Memphis is gonna be going
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: with their backup quarterback here it looks like right now
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: at least, but it's it'll be the injured player spot.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: So I do think you get extra value on that.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: I would take Memphis plus the points in that one
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna do it. I don't think it'll
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: get to that key number seven or anything like that,
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: but you'll be able to get six on it.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: So that was that would be my lean in that one.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Alabama South Carolina, that's gonna be one of my plays,
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: we're gonna skip it for now. That's actually these next
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: three year all plays for me the Missouri, Vandy, and
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: BYU Iowa states. So we're running through it. Man, those
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: are gonna be for all three of those Big Ten
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: Network At three point thirty PM, number twenty three Illinois,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: who I still don't think is worth worthy of being
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: ranked at all against Washington, who actually has the same
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: record at five and two. Illinois just has the bigger
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: name and maybe they face a little bit more of
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: a difficult schedule, but maybe not really. I mean, Washington
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: is at least having a travel cross country as a
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast team in the stupid Big Ten. How does
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: this game set up? This game? I just don't even
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: know how to approach this game. Really, Illinois, I believe
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: they're coming out of a bye. Yeah, they went into
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: the by on a lost Ohio state, so I think
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: the bye did come at a decent time for Illinois.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: They can just work things out in the by, just
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: you know, forget about that lost Ohio state fix some things,
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: come back out here and play. But they do have
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: to travel to the Pacific Coast, and they have not
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: gone further west than well, I mean, they haven't gone
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: west at all from Illinois. The furthest west they've been
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: this year is in Illinois, so because they've only gone
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: to Indiana and they went east to Duke and then
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: they played two games in Indiana against Indiana and Purdue.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: So it is a weird travel spot for Illinois. The
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: buy might help with that a little bit because they
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: can get out there early if they want to. I
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: don't know if they did, but the buy at least
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: does help with Pacific Coast travel spot at the very least,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: and it's at least not a late game, so won't
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: like totally mess with their biological clock to that extent,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: but it is still an unfamiliar environment having to go
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: to Washington. Washington is coming up a pretty big game though.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: I believe they played Michigan last week, so they did
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: not have last week off. They had a pretty like
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: physical battle I think against Michigan last week, two pretty
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: decent defenses going at it in that game.
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: Had to go to the Big House.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: So they're coming off that game and they're having to
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: travel from that back to the Pacific Coast with no
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: time off, So the spot does look better for Illinois.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: To me, it's just a matter of how are they
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: going to perform on the Pacific coast? And the money
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: is not agreeing with Illinois here. The money's actually coming
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: in on Washington. I don't really agree with that. Washington's
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: from five and a half to three and a half
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: here though, so there was a move against them, But
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: fifty two of the tickets are on Illinois, fifty eight
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: percent of cash on Washington. Usually when you see the
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: cash percentage on one side, you'll see the market, I mean,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: you'll see the line moving in that same direction. But
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: in this case, that's not the case. So I don't
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: know if there's maybe an injury going on. Washington has
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: had the line go down on them, so the line's
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: going down on them, that's hot. Let me see here.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: It doesn't look I mean, it doesn't look like there's
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: a quarterback injury, right. Let me see here. No, I mean,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: Williams Junior played the whole game last week. He just
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: didn't have a great game. So yeah, I don't know
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: what to think. And Washington did have a bunch of
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: turnovers in that game it looks like too, So I
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: guess Washington was a little bit better than it looked
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: last week, but I still think with Illinois with the buye,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: I would slightly leaned towards Illinois. They're getting the points,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: but I don't like the fact that it's just an
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar location for them to have to be going to
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: ESPNU has Oklahoma State, who hasn't really done that much
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: better since that much better since firing Gundhy. They're up
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: against Texas Tech number fourteen, Texas Tech, who took their
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: first loss.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna slightly lean against Texas Tech here.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech is still without Morton, their quarterback. He missed
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: last week. He got injured I think two weeks ago.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: They used Ham in last week a quarterback against Arizona State.
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: They're gonna use them again this week.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: It looks like it is a downgrade for Morton and
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech did take their first loss in that game
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: against Arizona State last week, and I talk I mean
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: I mentioned it tonight already. I talk about it every
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: time it comes up when Tech. When a team loses,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: when they have their first loss of the season, it
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: can hang them over a little bit and they could
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: do poorly in the next game as well, because it
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: just stopped their momentum. They're not really used to losing.
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: Texas Tech really good offense, but less so.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: With Hammond in there. Still don't really know what to
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: think about this Texas Tech team. Man. They had that
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: one big win on the road against Utah. Other than that,
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: they have not had a difficult schedule so far, so
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: I still don't really know what to think of. The
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: second best team that they faced was Arizona State, and
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: they lost that one out right, although it was of
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: course with their backup quarterback that was actually in the
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: injured player spot too, So now this is gonna be
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: the second game with the injured quarterback, and when that happens,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: I also tend to look to go against that team
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: after they like step up their level play that first
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: game with their quarterback out, they tend to take a
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: little bit of a step back the next game. And
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: they do have Kansas State and then BYU up after this,
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: so they might look past Oklahoma State here a little bit, man,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: So I will lean slightly towards Oklahoma State getting all
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: these points.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: They're getting a ton of points in this one.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State got blown out again last week by Cincinnat
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: That was one of my Survivor plays last week was
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: on Cincinnati. I'm still live in both Survivors College and Pro.
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: I look into the line and what.
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech is a massive favorite, although they've dropped a
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: little bit from thirty eight and a half to thirty
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, seventy one percent of the tickets
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: only sixty seven percent of the cash coming in on
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech. So the money is indicating on the Oklahoma
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: State side a little bit Texas Tech. I mean, it's
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: gonna be a game, right, I think they're gonna just
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: get in, get out, like, just go in, get the win,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: go a little bit vanilla. They don't have to do
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: much to get this win. They're not gonna be really
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: trying to cover this number. In my opinion, I don't
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: think so. I would lean to taking the points of
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. ESPN two at four pm Baylor at Cincinnati.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati not a huge favorite here, even though the ranked
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: twenty first in the country. They have one loss, they
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: have no big twelve losses yet. Baylor is sitting at
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: four and three, But the line is kind of indicating
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: that these two teams are almost evenly matched, or even
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: that Baylor is the slightly better of the two teams.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: So the Oswegers are kind of indicating that there's a
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: little bit of a ranking mismatch or the rankings are,
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: you know, not like these teams are not what the
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: rankings would tell you, I should say, so it's kind
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: of an odds maker versus rankings disparity in this game
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Cincinnati's coming off that easy win against
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. Their most difficult opponents that they faced were
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: in Nebraska, which was their one loss at Arrowhead to
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: start the season, and then Iowa State, who they beat
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: at home. That was a big win for Cincinnati, but
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: they continued winning after that. They haven't lost since Week one.
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: This is a difficult game, though. Man, they do have
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Utah next. I don't think they're gonna overlook Baylor because
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: Baylor just carries a lot of weight behind their name.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: But Baylor has faced them more dellical schedules so far.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: They beat SMU, who was ranked at the time SMU
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: not a bad team. They beat Kansas State already. They
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: lost to Auburn, who's better than people think they are.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Auburn's face, it's a very difficult SEC schedule. Baylor also
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: played TCU was not that bad. But that's kind of
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: the issue that I would have where I do think
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: Baylor maybe the better of these two teams. They faced
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: them more difficult schedule, but TCU was always a big
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: opponent for Baylor. Man, it's a big Texas match up there,
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: and they're having to play a second straight road game
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: that they did go into a buy after that or no,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: excuse me, they went to buy before TCU, excuse me.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: So this is a second straight road game here for
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: Baylor as well. So that's somewhat of the hesitation that
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: would have I slightly lean towards Baylor getting the points
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: in this game, because I do think they are a
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: little bit undervalued right now in the market and Cincinnati
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: is probably a little bit overvalued. Cincinnati does have a
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: really good offense, though Baylor does have an offense that
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: can pretty much match it. Though Baylor's offense is also good,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: but coming off that tough game against TCU, second straight
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: road game, it's a little bit difficult to be able
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: to get there with Baylor. The money is coming in
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: on the Baylor side. Cincinnati dropped from five to three
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: and a half. Fifty three percent of the tickets are
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: on Cincinnati, but seventy three percent of the cash on Baylor,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: So the legit money is actually coming in on Baylor here.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: So in agreement with my thoughts on that game, but
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: I just don't think it's strong enough.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: The total is way high.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Too, because you have two teams that could definitely score.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: The totals up from sixty six and a half to
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: sixty seven eighty three percent of tickets. Only seventy eight
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over in this one, though,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: But I could definitely see this one being fireworks. Like,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: if people want offense, they're probably gonna want to look
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: at this game and watch it. If they just want
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: to see a lot of offense, will it go over
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: that pretty high total. I don't know when it's a
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: high total. It is a high total for a reason,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: even though it looks like the money's kind of disagree
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: with the over in that one. Four fifteen PM Eastern
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: SEC Network Number twenty two Texas at Mississippi State, who
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: does not have a win in the SEC yet. I
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: think Texas is better than this number twenty two ranking
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: would tell you. Man, Texas, I think they still have
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: maybe the number one offense or excuse me. The number
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: one defense in the country is certainly not the number
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: one offense. Their offense has really struggled, arch manning he's
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: not very good. Texas defense is elite though, so I
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: think Texas like teams that have really really bad offense
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: and good defense, they seem to always be undervalued, and
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: that was the case with Texas last year too. Texas
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: is coming off that close call last week, which SOB
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: and I were both on Kentucky plus the points. Last week,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: Texas was in a letdown spot in my opinion. They
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: were coming up that huge Red River shootout win or
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: Red River rivalry which was not a shootout. In that one,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: low scoring physical battle against Oklahoma, that was a huge win.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Texas almost got caught last week in another defensive game.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: Kentucky pretty good defensively, so that wound up being a
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: defensive battle, ugly ugly game. Though Texas actually had to
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: go to overtime to win that game. We almost got
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: the out right win on Kentucky in that one. Texas,
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's still only a one loss SEC team,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: so they could still shoot for the SEC's idle game
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: here man. So I think Texas is going to show
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: up I know this is a second straight road game,
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: not really the easiest spot here, and it is actually
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: a third road game in four weeks, which is a
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: little bit difficult. They went to Florida, then had the
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: Red River game, then went to Kentucky. Now they're going
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: to Mississippi State here. They do a Vandy and then
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Georgia up after this, so those are also big opponents.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: I mean those are ranked opponents obviously, but I think
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: they're going to show up focus here just because they
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: played so ugly against Kentucky. I think when you're a
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: favorite like that, a double digit favor you almost lose
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: the game outright, that does serve to kind of focus
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: you in the next game. Mississippi State, they're coming into
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: this game off of a close call against Florida. Man
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: they played their second straight road game, although they had
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: a buy in between the two, but they almost were
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: able to pull off the upset against Florida last week.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: I think they were like eight and a half point
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: hundred against Florida in that game. So you have Kentucky,
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: who almost lost as a double digit favorite, going up
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: against Mississippi State who almost won as a big underdog.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: So when you get a situation like that, you want
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: to actually look towards the team that played really badly
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: as the favorite, because they're the better team. They're usually
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: gonna tend to refocus in a spot like that, whereas
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: the team that almost pull out the upset could be
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: in a little bit of a hangover spot, maybe getting
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit fatigued. So I actually due lean to
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: Texas in this one, even though they're gonna be a
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: road favorite here, and the money is agreeing with that
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: through up from seven to seven and a half here,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: fifty three percent of the cash on them, fifty six
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets around Mississippi State. So public actually
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: slightly fading Texas public does not like these horrendous offenses. Man,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: they just they never want to do it. They're not
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: gonna lay points on the road like that. But I
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: do slightly land to Texas in that game. I'm not
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: even gonna talk about Wisconsin Oregon. Man, there's just nothing
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: interesting about that one. That'll probably be the only one
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: of these that I skip. Actually, so sorry, guys. Stanford
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: and Miami. Miami still ranked ninth in the country. Maybe
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: that's about Accurateum In Miami, they're good. They weren't worthy
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: of a number two ranking. But I do think Miami
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: is gonna bounce back in a big way in this game.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: It's just a matter of how big is the bounce
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: back going to be.
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: I think it's a bad spot for Stanford here.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Man. Stanford just pulled off a double digit upset against
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: Florida State last Saturday night. I think I had the
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: game on when I was doing my NFL show, I think,
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: and I was rooting against Florida State. That was a
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: huge win for Stanford. Man. They beat Florida State outright.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: And if you look at what happened in this game,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: Stanford did not even play well. They got out gained
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: four forty four to two ninety three in the game
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: in Florida State, had noe turnovers, and somehow Stanford won
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: the game out right. Florida had a ton of penalties
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: at Florida State. Excuse me, I had a ton of
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: penalties thirteen penalties. Stanford relatively clean of five penalties. So Stanford,
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: they were able to get the win in this game,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: A little bit of a misleading win and a crazy win.
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: A seventeen and a half point underdogs beating a team
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: like Florida State, who still has no wins in the
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: ACC absolutely insane. Florida State might not be that much
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: im brew from last year. And man, which I like
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: it because I said that I didn't think they were
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: going to really be that good this year. Still, I
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: don't like Castellanos. Stanford getting that win is just ridiculous.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: And now they're having to go to the East coast again.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: Look at what they've done since. Like back on September twentieth,
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: they went all the way to the east coast of
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: Virginia back to the Pacific Coast to face San Jose State.
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: Almost lost that game.
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: After they lost to Virginia pretty badly on the road,
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: bad spot, they came back home and almost lost to
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: San Jose State, who was in you know, a little brother,
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: big brother situation. Then they had to buy. Then they
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: had to go to the Dallas area to face SMU,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: lost that game, came back home to the Pacific Coast,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: beat Florida State in a massive upset. Yes, they could
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: still become Bowl eligible, So I do think that's on
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: the radar as far as you know Stanford, Like, what
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: motivation are they gonna have here? They might still have
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: motivation here because it is a big game. It's a
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: big opponent against Miami. They're gonna want to try to
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: become Bowl eligible if they can here, but they're having
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: to go all the way back to the East Coast,
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: and the only other time they played on the East
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: Coast this year against Virginia, they lost the game by
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: eighteen points, so that's not really a good sign for Stanford.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: Stanford actually did a lot of traveling early in the
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: season too, They had to go all the way out
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: to Hawaii to This has been a brutal travel schedule.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: Stanford might have the most like flight mileage out of
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: any team college football this year. I mean, it's just
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: crazy what their travel has been. So I don't think
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: it's a good spot. It's a letdown spot with a
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: cross country trip and they're gonna be having to go
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: up against an angry Miami team that actually has an
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: extra day off because Miami, of course lost as a
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: double digit favorite to Louisville at home. I think Mymi's
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: gonna be pissed off and they're gonna want to take
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: their anger out here on somebody. Uh So I'm gonna
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: lean to laying the points with Miami in this one. Man.
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Although usually I do talk about how when a team
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: takes their first loss it can.
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: Hang them over a little bit into the next game.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: Maybe. Uh, but I'm gonna lean to laying the points.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: This one's close to being a play for me. Actually.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: It's just I don't necessarily want to lay so many
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: points that you need. You need, like Miami to actually
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: not take their foot off the gas here. They I
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: think they will be angry, but like, once they know
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: that they're gonna get this win, are they gonna like
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: start packing it in? They might, So that's kind of
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: the concern here. But Miami's down from a thirty point
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: favorite to a twenty nine point favorite here, Uh, sixty
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets eighty four percent of the
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: cash on Miami public still slightly on Miami, but the
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: actual money more so on Miami. Also, it's a ridiculously
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: low total down to forty four and a half. Do
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: you want to lay almost thirty points to the total
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: of forty four and a half? Not? I mean I don't,
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: not particularly, but I would still need to laying the
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: points with Miami in this one, as ridiculous as that
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: might sound. But I can't get there with it. As
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: far as a play ABC seven to thirty pm Eastern,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: we get Texas A and M, number three in the country,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: still undefeated against number twenty LSU. Here, however, the oddsmakers
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: are not lining Texas A and M as that heavy
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: of a favorite. They're still telling you that Texas A
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: and M is the better team over LSU. Although I
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: don't think Texas A and M is actually the third
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: best team in the country. I think they're probably somewhere
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: top ten. Maybe LSU is probably actually fairly close to that.
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: LSU is probably I don't know, somewhere between fifteen and
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: twenty is probably where LSU belongs. The ranked twentieth. Right now,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M is up from a one and
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite to a two and a half
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: point favorite here, but fifty five percent of the tickets
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: are on A and M, but fifty eight percent of
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in on LSU, So the money is
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: actually coming in on the LSU side. LSU is the
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: better defense getting points, So that is something that I
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: look at. When you get the better defense as an underdog,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: that will be something that I will take notice of.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: I tend to like the better defense, especially getting points.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: A and M definitely has the better offense though, and
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: it's not like their defense is horrible, although LSU has
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: been like pretty much just a defensive team this year.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: Their offense, even though nuss Meyer came back, they had
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of turnover coming into the season on offense,
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: and their offense just has not come together. Other defense
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: has been surprisingly good though, like way improved from the.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: Last couple of years.
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: Pretty interesting although A and M. They're gonna be the
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: public team because the public wants to come in on
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: the higher ranked team, but also on the better offense,
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: although they're not coming in an A and M to
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: a ridiculous extent here. And I don't know if I
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: even actually I don't know that I necessarily disagree with
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: the A and M side here, to be honest, it's
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: a second straight road game for A and M. I
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: do get that. I know that they've only won their
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: two road games by one and three. They beaten Notre
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: Dame by one, but that's a good win on the
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: road against Notre Dame. I know A and M. I mean,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: they've had a fairly weak schedule so far, though Auburn's
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: not that bad a team, and A and M actually
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: blew them out statistically more than what you would think
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: based on the score there A and M last week
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: they had a close call though they were double digit favorites.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: I think against Arkansas is that right? Uh No, eight
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: and a half my mistake. But as eight and a
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: half boy favorite Texas A and M, they almost lost
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: this game, Dude. I think they got a little bit
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: complacent and Arkansas was almost able to come back. Although
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: A and M was up ten late in the game,
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: Arkansas cut it back to three with ten seconds left,
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: so it's not like they were really threatening to win
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: the game. But it was still not a great performance
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: from A and M. It is still a second second
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: straight road game. Although you know they're gonna get up
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: for a game against LSU, so they will be focused.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: Last year, Texas A and M did beat LSU in
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: College Station though that was a big win for A
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: and M last year, so it's gonna be revenge for LSU.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: So both these teams have motivating factors in this game. Member,
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: I think both teams are probably gonna show up. Although
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: usually when I see like oh, A and M. They
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: were a big favorite and they almost lost the game.
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: I'm usually gonna want to look towards that team A
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: and M. In this case at LSU, they're coming off
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: a loss to Vandy that was a big game for LSU,
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: and they lost that game in kind of a brutal loss.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: And they do have Alabama up next, so though it
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: is after a bye, that's a big game too. Although
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna necessarily overlook A and M.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: But when LSU is coming off a tough loss like that,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, it's difficult for me to actually
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: get there what the LSU said. I have a lot
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: of conflicting opinions on this one. Man, I don't even
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: know where I want to go here. I mean, do
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: I go with the market read? Is the market read
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: the deciding factor here? Say, better defense getting points? More
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: of the cash is coming in an LSU. It's a
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: low total at forty nine. I guess slightly in to LSU.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: But man, I mean, I think both teams are gonna
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: show up here. But if that's the case, then you
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: kind of want to look towards the team where the cide,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: where you think there's a little bit of value of
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: you think you're gonna get like your best effort out
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: of both teams, and I think that will be LSU here.
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: It is gonna be revenge for LSU.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: And even though LSU is a two loss team, I
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: don't think they're completely out of it yet as far
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: as like they're overall a two loss team. Uh so
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: they might still be in the playoff picture at the
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: very least. So I don't think it's like a dream
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: crusher scenario for LSU yet, even though they are coming
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: off of kind of a tough loss. So yeah, very
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: difficult handicap in that one. We have the Battle of Michigan,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: huge rivalry game at seven thirty pm Eastern on NBC.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: Michigan ranked twenty fifth in the country against Michigan State,
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: who's below five hundred and doesn't have a big ten
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: win yet. Michigan is obviously the better team here, but
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: Michigan State. Weird things happen to this rivalry. Man where
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: it seems like Michigan State is usually they consider themselves
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: to be the little brother in this rivalry, and they
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: this is one of the big games on their schedule
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: and they usually step up their effort for it. So
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: when you know things are not going well. Even when
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: things are not going well for Michigan State, they like
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: treat Michigan like their super Bowl pretty much. Excuse me, Michigan.
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: They're coming off a couple of pretty big games in
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: a row Man against USC and against this Washington team
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: that's pretty underrated I think and under the radar here.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: So coming off a couple of big games here, now
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: they go to Michigan State. They don't have a big
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: game up next though, against Purdue, so it's not gonna
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: be anything I'm gonna get there. Whether they are coming
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: off a couple of difficult games, Washington gonna be a difficult,
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: you know, defense to face. Michigan got out of there
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: with a win in a defensive game. Michigan State just
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: coming off another ugly loss, so that it was to Indiana.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: I mean Indiana way better than Michigan State. But Michigan
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: State has lost four games in a row. But yeah,
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: Michigan State is bad. I mean they have not. Their
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: best win was against Boston College and they had to
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: do it in two over times at home to even
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: get that win. So yeah, Michigan State's resume is really
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: really awful, that's for sure. Chiles came back, though, I
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: was wondering what was happening with their quarterback situation. He's back,
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: so they do have their starting quarterback here again. It
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: looks like again, I just think weird things can happen here.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: I would probably lean to Michigan State. Plus the points
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: here probably not gonna be a game where there's gonna
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: be a lot of offense, so the points are gonna
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: be more at a premium in this one. The total
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: is pretty low down to forty seven and a half,
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: so the points are worth more, and you're getting two
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: touchdowns on the Michigan State side. Now Michigan's up from
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: a thirteen point favorite to a fourteen point favorite. I
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: think there is maybe a little bit of value grabbing
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: the two touchdowns. With touchdowns with Michigan State here fifty
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: three percent of the tickets around Michigan, fifty four percent
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Michigan State. Michigan, I mean, still
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: dealing with a freshman quarterback here, Bryce Underwood. This is
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: still a road game, and it is a big rivalry
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: that Underwood is not played him before, so he might
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: not know like what this rivalry is really, I mean,
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: doesn't know it in person. Yet or what it's gonna
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: look like. It's gonna be one game where Michigan State
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: does get up for it. Man, I mean, they don't
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: have a whole lot left to play for it at
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: this point, but this is I mean, they could, I
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: guess technically still become Bowl eligible and they actually have
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: a couple of beatable opponents left, so maybe that's on
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: the table, but I don't know about that, but they
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: will get up for this one. So slightly into Michigan State.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: There seven forty five pm SEC Network number seventeen. Tennessee
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: at Kentucky. I believe this is a rivalry as well,
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: these two teams, these two states. They don't like each other. Man,
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: it's it's the battle of the whiskies, I think the
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: bourbons or is it Kentucky bourbon against Tennessee whiskey? Is
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: that really what it is?
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: I think that's what it is.
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Tennessee obviously the better of these two teams. Kentucky
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: is kind of in a bad spot because they just
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: took Texas to the limit last week, which, as I
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: already mentioned, that was a winner that we had on.
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: The show last week.
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: So Kentucky maybe in a little bit of a bad
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: spot hangover spot coming off of that. Although I don't
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna overlook Tennessee because they're usually gonna get
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: up for a game against Tennessee. Tennessee is coming up
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: a pretty tough loss themselves against Alabama. I know they
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: lost by seventeen, but you know, that's a game you
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: get up emotionally for. They played at Alabama. It's gonna
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: be their second straight road game, and they do have
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: to face Oklahoma next, which is another ranked team. So
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a sandwich spot for Tennessee
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: where maybe they overlook Kentucky a little bit here. So
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: I think it's a bad spot for both teams. In
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: a case like that, I think probably I would look
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: towards taking the points with Kentucky in this one. I mean,
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: they can at least play defense again and maybe try
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: to keep this game close. I don't want to be
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: on Kentucky after the way that they almost pulled off
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: the upset against Texas last week, But uh, seventy seven
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only seventy percent of the cash on Tennessee.
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: They're down from eight and a half to eight. Bad
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: spot for both teams. Tennessee being the ranked team, Probably
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: the value side would be in taking the points of Kentucky.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: So that is the way that I will lean in
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: that game. Not strong at all.
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: And then ESPN two eight pm.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: We have six and one Houston, although they haven't faced
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: a very difficult schedule against Arizona State, who's back in
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: the rankings at twenty fourth. Now, my first instinct on
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: this is that Arizona State's in a massive letdown spot.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: I mean they pulled off a huge upset last week
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: at home against Texas Tech. There were seven and a
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: half point underdogs, even up against Texas Tech's backup quarterback.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: Arizona State was actually in the reverse injured player spot
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: because their quarterback Levitt actually came back in that game,
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: so he is going to be bad. I mean he's
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: back already, so he will play again here. Texas Tech
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: was actually in the injured player spot last week, the
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: first game without their quarterback. But it was a big
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: game for Arizona State. I still leaned to Arizona State
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: in that one. They got the outright upset win, huge
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: win against Texas Tech. Now they get a home game
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: against Houston. Although will they be focused for Houston, though,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: because Houston is a six to one team, this has
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: turned into kind of a big game. But I don't know, man,
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: I mean that Texas Tech win was really really big.
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: I mean that's basically what you kind of point to
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: as the legitimizer game, right a team they might have
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: one win during the season where it's like everybody starts noticing, Oh,
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: now this team is like legit in our eyes, And
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: that might have been it for Arizona State beating a
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: team that was ranked top ten in the country like
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech. Now they get Houston up next to they
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: do have Iowa State, who at least carries more weight
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: behind their name, more respect behind their name. Houston coming
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: into this game off of beating Arizona, so they're coming
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: up a pretty decent win themselves.
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: A close game against Arizona.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: I think they're still gonna be focused though, going out
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: on the road to face Arizona State here. So I
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: can kind of see it both ways in a way,
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: but I probably do lean to Houston in this one,
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: just because overall, I just think it is a letdown
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: spot for Arizona State. Houston is a good defensive team too,
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: and it's a game with both teams are actually pretty
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: good defensively, so points probably at a bit of a
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: premium in this one too. The totals all the way
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: down to forty five and a half now with money
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: on the under so it's expected to be a low
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: scoring game, and that also kind of indicates that you
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: kind of want to look towards taking the points. Fifty
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: five percent of the tickets only fifty four percent of
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: the cash on Houston. Those of the percentages right now
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: make it look like Houston is a public underdog, but
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure that I buy that. I mean, you
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: have Arizona State being ranked, you would think that maybe
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: the public would still kind of be on Arizona State,
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: although Houston has a slightly better record, but Arizona State
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: ranked higher than them. I don't know. I don't know
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: if that's still gonna play out that way by the
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: time the game kicks off tomorrow night, if you're gonna
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: actually see the money still kind of indicating on like
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: the Arizona State side, I don't know if we'll see
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: it that way.
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: I don't really see it that way.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with Houston if I was
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: gonna play that, not a play for me though. All right,
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: you know three of my players are gonna be on
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: these big games here. I already gave out one early
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: one in Oklahoma. I decided to give it out as
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: a play. I think it is worth it. I mean,
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: I think Ole Miss is in a bad spot, so
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: I do like that one. What other games did I
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: want to talk about before I get into my actual plays, Nate,
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: you're on Nebraska, guy, right, we'll talk about Northwestern and Nebraska.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: I think it's a decent spot for Nebraska to being
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: a bounced back spot here. Man, Nebraska, they got embarrassed
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: in primetime last week against Minnesota. Just a horrific loss. Really,
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: I believe Nebraska is about a seven point favorite, and
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: that one went on the road and they only scored
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: six points against Minnesota. That's ugly, man, I think they're
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: on a bounced back spot. Off of that. They have
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: an extra day off after that game on Friday night,
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: so they have extra time off here. I think that
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: a game that ugly is going to have you focus again. Man,
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: Northwestern not a good team. I know, Nebraska. They have
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: not stepped up well in class. I mean, they're only
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: really big games against Michigan and they lost, but they
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: did play close in that game. They beat Cincinnati early
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: in the season. Cincinnati is ranked at least Nebraska is
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: definitely better than Northwestern, though I know Northwestern has a
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: five and two record, but I mean, who is Northwestern beaten? Like,
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: they lost to Lay and they lost to Oregon. Their
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: big win obviously is Penn State, but Penn State is
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: just totally derailed at this point, So I don't know what,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: like how much stock you can really put into that.
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: Other than that, I mean, Northwestern not an impressive resume
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: from them. They just they're coming off a shutout. But
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be focused for Nebraska. I just
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: don't think that they're a very good team. So I
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: think when you get two teams that are probably both
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: gonna try to win this game, they'll both be focused.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: You gotta look towards the better team that is Nebraska.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: They're down for May and a half to seven and
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: a half, though you might even be able to get seven.
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you can get Lay the seven without
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: the hook on Nebraska, that is probably the way to
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: look here. Sixty eight percent of the cash on Nebraska
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: fifty tickets on Northwestern, So Northwestern's actually a public underdog.
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: Nebraska is getting the money though it is a low
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: total though, although money coming in in the over driving
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: it up a little bit. Nebraska probably more of a
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: defensive team than an offensive team, but Northwestern probably is
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: as well. In Northwestern, I don't think they really play
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: offense well at all, So probably expecting Northwestern to not
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: put up a lot of points in this one. But again, yeah,
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: it is a little bit difficult to lay a seven
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: and a half with a low total like that at
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: forty four and a half, but the number is going
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: up a little bit. If I was gonna play it,
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: I would lay the points with Nebraska in that one.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: Nebraska never seems to cover. I don't know what the
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: record is against the spread this year. Yeah, but I
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: think they they're the right side in this game.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: That would be my.
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: Opinion in that one. What else see a lot of.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: Ranch games here. Let's see Kansas State.
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: And Kansas I mean, this is a rivalry game. We
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: got to talk about this one, right. Kansas State not
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: having a great season. Man the three and four they're
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: coming out of a bye, although they did go into
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: the buy.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: In a good note. They beat TCU.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: Going into the by Kansas State two lost team in
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: the Big twelve, do they still have a shot? I
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: don't know, man unlikely, but I think they went into
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: the bye at a bad time because they got that
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: win over TCU. That was a good win. When that happens,
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: you don't want to stop playing football. Now they gotta
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: go to Kansas and next week they got to face
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech. I mean, that's a big games left on
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: the schedule. Man, Texas Tech is still basically the top
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: team in the conference. I know this is a rivalry game,
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: but Kansas State has had the upper hand in this
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: rivalry for who knows how long, Like when has Kansas
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: ever actually beating them? It seems like Kansas like takes
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: Kansas State to the limit every game recently. Kansas falls
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: short every single time, I think is what's been the
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: case every single year recently.
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: So Kansas is basically the little brother of these two.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: And you know Kansas is gonna get up for this
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: game Kansas State, Maybe they will, but I think the
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: spot sets up a little bit better for Kansas in
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: this one. Kansas hilariously actually has the better record out
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: of the two, even though I don't think they're actually
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: the better team. Kansas is coming off a loss two
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: weeks ago. They actually went into a buye as well,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: and they went into the buy in a bad note
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: losing to Texas Tech. So we have conflicting buys here,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: and I think the buye came at a better time
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: for Kansas because they can use that buy to fix
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: some things after losing at Texas Tech. So yeah, extra
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: week to prepare for this one for them too. I
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: would lean to Kansas in this one. Kansas is a
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: three point favorite, and the juice has gone up a
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: little bit on Kansas. The juice is loose. Osmakers are
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: telling you these teams were almost even power ratings wise,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: which is pretty insane. Seventy five percent of the tickets
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: on Kansas State only sixty two percent of the cash.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: So Kansas State is the public team man the public.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: Even though Kansas State has the slightly worse record, they're
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: the underdog. Public is still playing that Kansas State underdog
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: man because they just all they remember, I think is
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: Kansas State just owning this series and beating Kansas every
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: single time. But you know that's gonna be motivation for Kansas.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: Kansas being favored is insane. They're like never favored in
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: this matchup. So maybe Kansas State will use that as
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: a motivational tool like their coaches. If I was their coach,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: I'd be pointing that out, like, hey, we dominate this
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: series and we're the underdog here. Maybe that will will
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: be a motivating tool for Kansas State. But I do
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: actually lean to Kansas and that one, even though that
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: one also sounds ridiculous. I'm a fan of the ridiculous. Man,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: what can I say? Old Dominion one of you guys,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: I think was it Saab who was on Old Dominion
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: last week? Very very brutal game for them. They got
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: absolutely pummeled by James Madison in this game, and it
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: was not misleading. James Madison annihilated them. They had six
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: hundred and twenty four yards of offense to Old Dominions
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: two eighty four. I thought it was gonna be a
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: closer game than that, although I had a slight lean
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: to James Madison in that one. That is a brutal
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: loss for ODU. Is it embarrassing enough that they're gonna
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: show up for this game against app State here?
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: I don't know, man, uh app State. They're coming in.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: Off a pretty ugly loss. App State was a favorite
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: at home last week against Coastal Carolina, and app State
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: blew the game. They're winning most of this game and
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: lost it at the end, even though I think app
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: State might have actually had the statistical win in this
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: game as well. No, they were even yardage wise, exactly even,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: but still app State was a big favorite in this one,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: ten and a half boy favorite, and they lost the
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: game as a ten and a half point favorite. I
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna show up, man. I think Old Dominion
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: might be more in like kind of like heartbreaker mode
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: where they lost that like big game that you get
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: up for emotionally. App State coming off in a just
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: a kind of an embarrassing loss to a I mean
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: both teams coming off embarrassing losses, but app State to
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: lose to a really bad Coastal Carolina team is a
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: favorite like that. I think app State getting the points
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: is the way to look here. Old Dominion fifty of
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: the tickets their thirteen point favorite, by the way, and
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: app State fifty eight percent of the cash as the
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: thirteen point hunderdog. Slight lean to slight lying towards app
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: State getting the points in that one. Auburn against Arkansas.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: These teams are both coming off a run of big games. Man,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: Auburn has played four straight games close against good teams.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: They haven't been able to get a win in the SEC,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: and they've played competitively, losing to Oklahoma A and M Georgia, Missouri.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: Those are all ranked teams, all good teams on they
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: played all of them competitively.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: So this Auburn team not that bad.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: They're going out on the road again to face Arkansas
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: here gonna be difficult though, with the fact that they
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: took Missouri to two overtimes last week, and I thought
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: Auburn was in the right spot to get that game.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: They blew the lead late, so I don't know how
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: they're going to react to that. I think it is
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for Auburn here of all those tough
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: games like that. Problem is Arkansas is in a similar spot. Arkansas,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: they've lost five games in a row, four of them
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: against ranked SEC opponents, and last week they took Texas
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: A and M almost to the wire. Although Arkansas was
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: down ten, as I pointed out, in the final minute
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: of that game, they scored a touchdown to get back within.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: I think that was what covered the spread for them
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: in that game, but that was still a tough game,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: close game for them against A and M. So both
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: of these teams are in a bad spot here. Arkansas
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: is up from a one point favorite or two and
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite here, but they're public sixty nine
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, only fifty the cash on them,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: so the money the market. Reid is basically saying to
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: take the points with the Auburn here. I don't think
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: I could do it off of that double overtime game,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: that ridiculous run that Auburn had recently, although I know Arkansas.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: Have a tough game two.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: Arkansas is the home team, though, stay at home. I
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, I don't know that I leaned to
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: the Auburn side here. I think just strictly based on
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: power ratings, I do think this line is maybe a
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: little bit too high in Arkansas. Here, Auburn is the
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: better team, and the osmakers are still telling you that
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: they are, which people looking at the records might think otherwise. Still,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: both teams don't really have good records here. Auburn is
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: the better team and Arkansas is close to getting like
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: a full home field advantage here. So based on that number,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: I do think there might be a little bit of
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: value in Auburn. But the spot is probably a little
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: bit worse for Auburn, especially because they are having to travel.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: So that's a tough That's a tough.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: Call, man. The money read right now is saying Auburn.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: But I have to default to agree with that. I
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know if I necessarily would. What
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: else we got here? Yukon at Rice. This is one
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: of my stronger opinions. Actually I lead to Rice in
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: this one. This is a secondary road game for Yukon.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: And Yukon they have not played west of New York
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: this year.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: Now they have to go down to Houston, Texas.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: So Yukon's road games this year have been at Syracuse,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: at Delaware, and at Boston College. I hear fucking Carl
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: arm going off outside, So isn't that just awesome? Fucking
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: hate that shit a Yukon. But yeah, the most recent
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: wins they haven't had to travel loss. This is a
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: very unfamiliar travel spot. But the most recent win was
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: a big win against Boston College, and I know it
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: was a I think Yukon is probably the favorite in
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: that game. As bad as Boston College has been, that's
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: still like the big brother in New England. Man, that's
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: still a big win for Yukon to go into Boston
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: College and beat them. Now they gotta go down to Rice.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: And Rice runs a triple option attack too, so Yukon
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: not really gonna be that familiar with defending against the
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: triple option. I like how this sets up for Rice.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with Rice in this one.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: Rice is all Rice, and that doesn't say they're gonna
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: poison Yukon. Rice is coming off a bye and they
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: went into that buy on three straight losses, and they
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: went into that buy in a horrific note. They lost
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: sixty one to thirteen to UTSA. Uh, that's just totally embarrassing.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: So I think that was a good spot to have
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: their buy because you have a buy off of that
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: embarrassing a loss, You're gonna use that a buye to
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: fix some things. Man. And they still potentially could become
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: Bowl eligible here, although it's unlikely at this point because
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: really their only like actual winnable game left is a
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: home game against UAB. But still I think they're gonna
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: show up for this one. It's kind of a weird
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: spot for Yukon. So I would take the points with
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: Rice in this one if I was gonna do it.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: Yukon's down from ten and a half to ten. If
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: you like Rice, I would take the ten. I don't
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: know if it's gonna get back to ten and a half.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: Probably not. You don't want to wait for it to
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: go to nine.
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: And a half though. Sixty two percent of the tickets
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: on Yukon, so they're a bit public. Fifty percent of
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in on Rice, so the actual money's
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: coming in on Rice. And it's a low total forty
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: eight and a half in this one. So yeah, I mean,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: I think laying the excuse me taking the points with
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: Rice makes sense in that game. I was thinking about
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: how I'm laying the points of Oklahoma here. That total
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: is not that low in the Oklahoma game, by the way,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: up to fifty three, so looks not terrible to lay
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: the points there. H So what else we got? I'm
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: not gonna talk about my best bets yet. Oh holy shit,
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: I actually forgot Minnesota and Iowa. I didn't even actually
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: handicap this game tonight. I didn't how many games did
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: I skip? Eh? What did I do? I think that
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: was the only game I skipped. But Minnesota. I think
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's in a bad spot, dude. They just pulled off
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: that upset in prime time at home against Nebraska and everybody,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: and they were ranked. Nebraska was ranked at the time,
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: and everybody's gonna look at Minnesota being three and one
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: in the Big Ten. Oh my god, they might be
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: able to make the Big Ten championship. The fact that
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: they only have two losses. Yeah, but who did they
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: beat besides Nebraska? They beat Buffalo Northwestern State was an FCSM.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: I know Buffalo's pretty good in the MAC, but still
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: I'm not impressed. They barely beat Rutgers at home. They're
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: not good.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: And they beat Purdue only by seven at home.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: They're not good.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: So Minnesota not an impressive resume here. Now they're going out.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: On the road. They're own two on the road. Although yeah,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: one of their losses was to Ohio State, can't blame
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: them for that. The other loss was at cal where
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: they had to go out to the Pacific Coast. But
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: I think Minnesota was actually favored in that game. It's
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: gonna be a tough environment, man, for them to have
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: to go to Iowa after a big primetime upset like this.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: Iowa really good defensively.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: I always coming up and win over Penn State though,
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: so and they do have Oregon up next. So though
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: it's after a buye, do I really want to come
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: in and lay the points.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: With Iowa here? Not really, but I still think it's
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: the right side.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: Even though Iowa, you know, doesn't have the extra day
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: of rest like Minnesota does. But I think that extra
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: day of rest doesn't help when you pulled off a
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: big primetime upset. I always coming off beating Penn State.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: Penn State covered the number finally. Penn State was in
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: the fired coach spot and the injured player spot with
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: their injured quarter at there, so I did like Penn
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: State to cover in that one. I thought they might
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: win the game. Penn State did cover, But does Iowa
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: consider that to be a big win that It's tough
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: to gauge, Like, do you think Iowa was gonna be
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: in a letdown spot after beating a big name team
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: like Penn State even though Penna State's really down this year.
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, So that's one thing to try
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: to figure out. The money is coming in on Iowa,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: though pretty strongly.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: They're up from eight to nine and a half.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: Here, sixty six percent of the tickets on Minnesota, but
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of the cash on Iowa. So the
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: money is saying Iowa. I will agree with it, and
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: I would lay the points if I was gonna do it.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: But this total is ridiculous. It's at thirty nine. I mean,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: Iowa really good defensively, Minnesota pretty solid defensively and very
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: weak offensively. Iowa's offense not great, but at least capable
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: at this point. So can Iowa cover a number like
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: that in a game with a just an insanely low total.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: I don't want to make it a play, but I
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: would slightly lean to Iowa. Toledo at Washington States and
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: interested in when Washington State's in a really, really weird spot.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: And I think a difficult spot. Washington State.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, they've had three road games in a row
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: that they did have a bye after the first one
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: where they went into Colorado State and beat them. Colorado
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: State's not very good. Then they came out of a
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: bye and they went to Ole Miss and they came
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: to within three as thirty something point underdogs in that one,
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: and then they had to play another game, well, this
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: time on the East Coast, So they went from Mississippi
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: to the East Coast to play Virginia two ranked teams,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: and as a whatever, it was seventeen and a half
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: point underdog in that when they almost won that game too.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: So they are coming off two games where they were
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: gigantic underdogs and they only lost by a combined five
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: points in those two games. And now they're gonna come
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: back home to face Toledo, a MAC team, and up
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: next they get Oregon State, and of course Oregon State
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: is their only conference game, so it's a rivalry just
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: because they're the two teams that were left behind in
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: the Pac two. So that is a big game against
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: Oregon State. So it's a bad spot man with a
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: cross country trip off two huge performances as an underdog
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: like this, and then with the look ahead, big time
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot here. I like Toledo in this game. My
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: only concern with it is that I don't know how
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: Toledo's gonna play.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: When they have to go to the Pacific Coast for
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: the first time.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: That's the issue I have with that, it's a weird
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: travel spot for Toledo. I mean, they're coming off an
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: easy win over kent State, so I'm not concerned about
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: that though. That's kind of just a momentum building win
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: after they lost to Bowling Green the game before that.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: Toledo's had some weird losses though, losing to Western Michigan
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: especially as kind of a weird loss on the road.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: They're losing a Bowling Green as a favorite, also kind
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: of weird. Toledo is better than the record looks though,
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: because they did lose both those games as a favorite.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: I guess Western Michigan and Bowling Green, and there are
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: only other losses a close loss to Kentucky on the road.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: Pretty decent performance for Toledo there against an SEC team.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: But again, my problem with this is they have not
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: gone west of the Mississippi this entire season. Now they
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: got to go out to Washington State to Pullman. Washington
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: really just kind of a weird environment for Toledo to
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: have to go to, So I just can't get there
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: with it. But I do think it's a horrible spot
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: for Washington State, so I do lean to Toledo in
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: this one. They flip from a two point dog to
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: a two point favorite. You can probably actually lay one
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: and a half here or maybe find a money line
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: on Toledo if you want to play it. That is
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: what I would do. And it looks weird to see
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: Toledo as a favorite, right like why is a MAC
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: team a favorite against a team that used to be
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: in the back twelve for the Osburgers are telling you
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: Toledo is actually better than Washington State, which I don't
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: think the public would really think that that's the case.
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: Toledo actually might be the best team in the MAC,
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: it's just their record doesn't reflect it right now. Fifty
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: six percent of the ticket, seventy one percent of the
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: cash on Toledo, I agree with it. The only thing
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: that's holding me back on that one is the is
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: the travel spot for Toledo having to go out there. Man,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: That's the only thing, the only hesitation that I would
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: have there. San Diego State in Fresno is actually a
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: big game in the in the mountain. West Man, this
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: is gonna be another long video, huh. Although at least
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: all all three of my remaining places, or no, three
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: out of the four are games that I skipped because
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: they're all ranked matchup. San Diego State's coming off well,
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 1: they're coming out of a bye. They went into a
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: bye with four straight wins, including pummeling Nevada on their
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: last game, went into a bye. Now they're coming out
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: of that by San Diego State. Maybe they are back somewhat. Man,
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a proud program for a while.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: They've had some bad years. They're five and one this
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: year though, and they're actually in the mix in the
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: Mountain West right now. Man, So the Mountain West right
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: now is Boise is still the best team there. UNLV
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: is in the mix there. I know, Fresno and San
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: Diego State all decent records there. In Hawaii is actually
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: not that far behind either, so interesting. This is a
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: big game. But again, San Diego State did go into
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: a buy in a really good note, so that could
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: kind of halt their momentum a little bit. So not
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: a really great time for them to have a buye.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: Fresno is sitting at five and two on the season
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: with one loss in the Mountain West, and that was
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: their last game against Colorado State, which was on a
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: Friday primetime game, so everybody kind of saw that just
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: a horrendous loss for Fresno State against a pretty bad
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: Colorado State team. Fresno went into a buy on that note,
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: so Fresno went into the buy in a much worse note,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: which I think makes the buy better because they can
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: use it to fix things and get prepared for this
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: game against San Diego State. Yeah, they have boising next,
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: but I don't think they're gonna overlook San Diego State
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: with the way San Diego State has been playing in
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: coming out of the buy off of that really bad game.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: So I actually think Fresno is the right side in
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: this game, but the money seems to disagree with it.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: San Diego State's from a two and a half point
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: favorite or a three and a half point road favorite,
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: So the odds makers really respecting San Diego State now
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: telling you San Diego State not really a bad team anymore.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: Necessarily fifty four percent of the tickets only fifty the
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: cash on Fresno, So Fresno looks like a public home underdog,
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: which is something you rarely see and usually not the
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: side that you want to be on. But I think
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: the buy is more beneficial to Fresno, so I would
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: lean to taking the points with Fresno certainly don't want
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: to do it though. By the way, I will point
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: out that sometimes when these teams that are not expected
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: to become Bowl eligible become Bowl eligible, which isn't the
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: case with those two teams yet, But when you have
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: a team that's not used to being Bowl eligible and
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: they get their sixth win, sometimes that team can have
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: a letdown just based off of that. So we're kind
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: of in that part of the season now, though I
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: don't see any of those spots really yet that I
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: want to do anything with, but that's just something to
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: keep in mind. Sab, what's up man? You went three
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: and one yesterday? Uh? You mean tonight? Right? I went
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: three and one as well? Right? Who I'm on in college?
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: We haven't gotten to my best bets yet. I gave
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: out an early best bet that I decided to elevate
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: to a best bet, so I will reiterate that one
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: again at the end of the show. What other games
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: that I have to talk about or did I want
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: to talk about before we get to.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: Before we get to my best bets?
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: Here? This is this is at least not going to
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: be a two and a half hour show this time.
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: TCU is going to West Virginia. I think the spot
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: for TCU is.
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: Actually pretty bad. They just beat Baylor.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: That's a big Texas matchup there for TCU, and they
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: do have Iowa State coming up next to though it
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: is after a bye, but going to Morgantown here, I
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: don't love the spot man, TCU. They haven't been good
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: on the road. Their only road win was that when
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: when they blasted North Carolina. I mean know, North Carolina
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: sucks with TCU when they've gone on the road in conference,
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: they lost both games to Arizona State and Kansas State.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: Obviously, West Virginia is nowhere near.
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: As good as those two teams. But I think this
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: is a weird spot man for TCU. It's not a
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: great spot West Virginia sitting at two and five and
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: they're coming in off another horrendous loss. So that was
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: on the road to UCF. So they're gonna come back
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: home where the last time they were at home they
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: got shelled by Utah. Al though Utah is pretty good.
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: West Virginia at least their only FBS win was at
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: home against PID, so they have at least been a
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: little bit better at home. They've been switching their quarterbacks up,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: I guess. I mean, this offense is definitely a big
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: concern for West Virginia, but the spot's not good for TCU, man,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: So I would lean to taking the boys with West
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: Virginia in this one.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 2: I just figured i'd point that out.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: TCU is up from fourteen and a half to seventeen
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: as a road favorite. Seventy eight percent of the ticket
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: is only seventy five percent of the cash on them,
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: so the public is on the TCU side less of
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: the money on them.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: It's ugly.
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: It's not a play for me, but a slight lean
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: in that one. What other games that I really want
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: to talk about here? We're getting to the night. I
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: think we're almost to the best bets here. Man. I
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: was gonna point out briefly that Georgia Southern. I looked
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: at this and I thought it looked like Georgia Southern
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: was in a bad spot to me because they're coming
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: off winning that rivalry game against Georgia State, and I
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: know Georgia State's really bad, so I don't know how
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: much weight you can really put into that, but that's
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: still a big rivalry game, and it was a nice
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: win for Georgia Southern. Now they go on the road
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: to Arkansas State. Who I know, Arkansas State has not
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: been a good team, but that might mean the Georgia
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: Southern might overlook them. And they do have app State
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: coming up next on a Thursday. As a next week,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: by the way, or maybe the following week, we're gonna
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: start getting MAC Tuesday games. By the way, the Tuesday
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: maction is finally gonna be back next week or the
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: following I think it's the following week because the MAC
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: the teams are playing tomorrow or today at this point,
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: and then they're gonna have the week off and then
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: play on Tuesday. So uh, somebody keep in mind there
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: and that Tuesday is gonna be considered to be part
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: of that following week, I believe. But yeah, Georgia Southern,
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: they do have Apps State up next to an app
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: State does carry some weight and that is going to
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: be a primetime game on a Thursday. So to me,
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: it looks like a little bit of a sandwich for
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern. Here Arkansas State. They are pulling off an
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: upset though at South Alabama, so I don't love the
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: spot for Arkansas State either. They were an eight and
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: a half point underdog in that game. They somehow pulled
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: off the upsetting in South Alabama and then they had
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: extra time off, and I think that extra time off
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: can kind of be a momentum killer when you went
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: in on two straight upsets like they did against Texas
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: State and South Alabama. So just you know, giving up
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: some more information about how I handicapped these games. I
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: think both teams are actually in bad spots. The money
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: is heavily coming in on Georgia Southern, though Arkansas State's
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: down from two to one as a favorite. Fifty nine
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on Arkansas State, seventy three percent
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Georgia Southern. So the money coming
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: in on the Georgia Southern side, I guess I'll slightly
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: agree with it, just because that's where the market read does.
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: I think the spot's a little bit worse for Arkansas State.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: But I had a hard time with this game when
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: I handicapped it, man, because I was like, I want
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: to fade both of these teams, so can't quite do it.
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: SOB you're in Europe, way where you're you're in Poland?
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: Oh all right, I didn't even know where. I don't
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: even think I knew where you were.
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: Hopefully Ukraine isn't gonna send more missiles into into your
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: country there. LSU plus two and a half I talked
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: about that already. I lean to LSU, but that's that's
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: my weakest opinion. On the four games that you have here,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: I slightly lean to LSU, but that one is actually
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: really difficult. You can go back and see how I
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: see what my thoughts were on that game. That was
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: a difficult game for me to handicap. Iowa State I
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: have not talked about yet. I wonder why Iowa I
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: did just talk about that. I don't know if you
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: were here you for that. I agree with the Iowa
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: side as well, But laying that many points with this
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: game that's such a low total, I just don't think
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: I could really get there with it. But I don't
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: disagree with that one. And wake Forest haven't talked about
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: that one yet either, So you're gonna you're probably gonna
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: like what I have to say coming up shortly. I
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: am also gonna talk about Colorado and Utah real quick here. Utah,
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: I think they might still be deserving of being a
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: top twenty five ranked team. Man, it's just they've taken
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: two losses. But I mean they lost to Texas Tech
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: and BYU. I mean, you can't blame them for losing
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: to Texas Tech. Even though I know Utah was favored,
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: they weren't home, they got blown out, they turned the
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: ball over too much in the game, I don't know.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: And yeah, they lost to BYU last week. This is
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: a misleading result, man, Like Utah was favored on the road.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: I still think they're the better team over BYU. And
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: if you look at what happened in this game, Utah
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: outgained BYU by over one hundred yards in the game.
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: And again they had turnovers. They were minus two in
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: the turnover department. But they outgained BYU four seventy to
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: three sixty eight. And this is gonna come into play
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: with that Iowa state handicap. Then I'm gonna talk about
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: in a second two. So Utah they're better than they
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: looked here. Man, Utah committed a ton of penalties too,
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: twelve penalties. Maybe some rigging going on for the home
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: team here. That's something you got to be aware of, man,
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: especially in what we're seeing with the NBA here, now
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: you kind of got to try to figure out what
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: you think the refs are gonna do, although I still
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: don't really do that.
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 2: I just handed gap the situations.
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: But the refs seem to be factoring into some of
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: these games, and I think Utah is the better team.
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: They should have won this game against BYU. I'm kind
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: of pissed about it, even though I didn't give it
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: out as a play. I just had a lean on Utah.
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: I think I probably picked Utah in like the ESPN
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: pick thems, but I'm not doing those for money. The
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: money ones that I have on a splash, I did
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: not use them, but still I'm pissed about it. But
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: I think that sets up a bad spot for Utah here. Man.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was the Holy War. That's a big
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: old rivalry, and the rivalry had gone away for a while.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: Now the rivalry is back. Huge game for both of
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: those teams, and it's a Utah in state rivalry as well.
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: Now they got to face Colorado and up after this,
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: they got ranked Cincinnati coming up next, So it's somewhat
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: of a sandwich looking spot for Utah here Colorado. They're
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: probably gonna step it up to face Utah here. The
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: issue that I would have with Colorado. They're coming out
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: of a by which, yes, I know it means they
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: have extra time to prepare for this, But they went
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: into the buye on a good note. They beat Iowa State.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: They upset Iowa State, so they got to win against
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: a ranked team at home, So I think they are
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: kind of in a letdown spot. I think maybe when
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: that happens, you don't really use the buye totally to
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: your advantage. So I can't quite get there with Colorado
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: on this one for that reason, but I still lean
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: that way one of the rare situations where I don't
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: like Utah in a game. Utah is down from fifteen
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: to fourteen on the line here, seventy five percent of
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: the tickets, only fifty three percent of the cash. So
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: of course Colorado can cover and not win the game here,
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: which I'm kind of thinking that might be what happens here.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: Total's not high and it's dropped down to forty nine
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: money kind of coming in on the under here. Utah
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: probably gonna be able to somehow get away with winning
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: this game with their defense. But I would take the
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: points with Colorado if I was gonna play that one,
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: all right, best bet time, right.
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: Let me see what do you got. I remember Gortat, Yeah,
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: what's up with that?
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: He's a meme in Poland. Gortat from the Orlando I
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: remember him on the Magic. I don't remember him on
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: the Wizards. He talks like he's an NBA legend and
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 1: a friend of Shack. Maybe he is a friend of Shack.
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, Shaq started his career with the Magic. The
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: Magic were really good with Shack, and then the team
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: just kind of Shaq left the team to go to
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: the Lakers, which at that point that made me not
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: like Shaq, man. But Shaq got back on my good
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: side when he had the beef with Kobe, the Kobe beef,
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 1: because I was not a Kobe fan, man, I was
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: more of a Shack fan than a Kobe fan. I
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: really liked Shaq when he was on the Magic. I
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: liked that team, didn't like what happened there. I always
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: hate the Lakers because I'm a Celtics fan, so I
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: hate him when Shaq went over there, but I liked
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: Shack clashing with Kobe. I had to cybe a Shack
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: and that beef Shack, you know, put Kobe's toothbrush in
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: his ass, and then and then ask Kobe how his
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: ass taste. You know, it's just you know, boys, me
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: and boys, the bros, Me and bros in the locker room.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: Gortat, I don't know, he might he might know Shaq.
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean Shaqa. Shaq would probably talk
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: to a fellow magic center like Gortat. Yeah, I remember
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: where's Gortont? Is? He is Guartot Polish. I don't even know.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know where he's at now. I assume he's
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: like Eastern European of some kind, But yeah, I do
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: remember him, tall white bald guy.
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 2: So Chann's half pole.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: I don't even know who that is. Really, I don't.
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I think there's I should know more
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: of the personnel than I do. Man, let's get into
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: the best bets here, man. And by the way, we're
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: both three and one tonight, sob all my NBA plays.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure I went three and one. The games
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: weren't over yet, but Portland and the Lakers both had
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: huge leads, so I'm pretty sure I went three and
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: one oh with those and I forget Detroit one outright
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: or not for me, but they definitely covered. Let's get
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: into the best bets here, man, and I will reiterate
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: the best bet that I already gave out us sob
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: if you want to go back and see the analysis
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: on this, I gave out Oklahoma minus five on the fly.
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: I decided that it was strong enough to make it
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: a play, So I'm actually gonna have five plays here
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma minus the points just shortly better defense. I think
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 1: they're actually the better team, even though the rankings are
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: telling you the opposite. Ole Miss is more public and
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: they're more of an offensive team. And Old Miss had
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: that brutal loss to Georgia last week, so I think
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: the spot sets up pretty well for Oklahoma on that one.
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: So oh, sochin is on the spurs all right?
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: Three? And oh whoa three?
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 2: And oh on the ice tonight too.
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: You you had three bets in hockey when they were
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: only four games. Holy shit, man, You're you're more high
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: volume than I am. I I try to be really
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: selective here, very good day. Yes, I'm up on the year, man,
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: if I dude, I need to just start putting money
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: on these games again, because I was down on the
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: year most of the year because of because college basketball
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: went so horribly early in the year. Hell, yeah, you
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: agree with Oklahoma. Let's get this done and keep this
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: under two hours. Man best bets one more time. Oh wait, anyway, Yeah,
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma was the first play. Let's get into the rest
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: of them, because I gotta talk about four of them.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: Next up, we're gonna have some games that I think
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: are early in the day. There you go, Wake Forest
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half. SOB, I'm gonna agree with
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: you on this one, as you probably already figured, probably
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: for the same reasons that you do. I believe this
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: one is at noon. I'm pretty sure you can get
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: the three and a half. I saw the three and
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: a half's out there before I did the show, so
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: I'm giving it out at three and a half. I
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: don't know if you wait, if you're still gonna be
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: able to get the three and a half, because Wake
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: Forest does have fifty two percent of the tickets seventy
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on them. Plus three I
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: think is also okay if you want to do it.
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: But I definitely saw three and a half's out there
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: not too long, so I think they might still be
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: out there shop around That's why I say you gotta
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: have as many books as possible. The money is coming
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 1: in on the Wake side here. This game is gonna
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: be at noon. This is a.
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 2: Terrible spot for SMU.
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: This is gonna be on the c W if you
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: want to go watch that and watch some Supernatural or
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: something after that or whatever. SMU, they're coming off a
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: monster win, dude. They pulled off an upset on the
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: road of Clemson. Clemson's a little bit down this year,
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: and that was such a big win because that was
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: the ACC Championship revenge game for SMU. If you guys
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: remember the ACC Championship last year, both of these teams
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: did make the playoff, but Clemson won the ACC Championship
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: last year in a close game against SMU. You know,
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: SMU had that game circled man. That was gonna be
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: one game that SMU was really gonna get up for.
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: They got the huge win. Now they're coming off of that.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: They have a second straight road game or they gotta
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: go to Wake. They gotta go to a wake. Maybe
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: it'll be a wake for themselves. I think after they
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 1: lose this game, how about that? And up next they
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: got to go to Miami which is a huge game
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: for them. SMU is still undefeated in the ACC. They're
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 1: at five and two. They still have a shot to
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: make the ACC title, man, but they're gonna have to
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: They're probably gonna need to beat Miami to be honest, man,
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens there. But that's gonna be
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: a huge look ahead. This is definitely a sandwich spot.
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: And I think SMU is not as good as their
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: record looks. I mean, the oddsmakers don't have them as
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: a huge favorite here against who. Wake was not supposed
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: to be any good at all. They were supposed to
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: be a dormat and Wake has kind of proven that
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: they're actually a pretty competitive team.
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 2: But that's okay.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: I mean that at least means I think we're gonna
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: get a competitive performance out of Wake here SMU. I
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: mean they what's their most impressive win. It is the
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: Clemson one. I mean there are other wins are against
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: East Texas A and M and FCS team Missouri State,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: who's new to the FBS. And that was a game
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: where I gave out Missouri State plus the points in
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: that when we got the job done in that when
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: they covered and then the other wins are against Syracuse Stanford,
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: who was having to travel to SMU there. None of
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: the other wins are impressive, dude, And Clemson is down
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: this year too, so SMU's resume is not very good.
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: And they haven't been that good on the road except
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: for that win against Clemson. Pretty lousy performance at a win,
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 1: non covering win against Missouri State, and then they lost
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: at TCU. So yeah, I mean SMU has not been
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: that impressive so far. It's a bad spot for them.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: Wake they're at four and two, which I know they're
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 1: probably not as good as their record looks. Their two
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: losses were basically the two games where they stepped up
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: in class. But when was a primetime game against NC
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: State and Wake Forest was winning that game by ten
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: I think in the third quarter and they fell apart
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: and lost the game. But they could have won that
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: game against NC State, so they actually didn't play poorly
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: in that one. And then they took Georgia Tech to overtime.
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 1: I know, Georgia Tech they're overrated, They're not like the
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: seventh best team in the country, but Wake played the
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: pretty well. Man. Those were at home as well, so
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: Wake's been competitive at home, they went on the road
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: against Virginia Tech. To Virginia Tech, I know they're down
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: this year, but that's still a pretty decent win. And
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: Wake Forrest did go out to Oregon State and beat
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 1: them in an unfamiliar environment. Kind of crazy that Wake
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: was able to do that. So Wake is actually playing
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: pretty well. And that was an injured player spot. I
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: think for Wake, they're a quarterback was injured Ashford, So
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: Purdy not spelled the same way as Brock perty not related.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: I think I think Perdy is a not a white
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: guy this party. But yeah, he played in that last game.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: But I do think Ashford is back in this game.
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: So yeah, there are a couple of hesitations here, but
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: the spot is so bad for SMU that I'm gonna
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: throw that out and just do this anyway. Sometimes, I
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: mean it gets a little bit subjective, man. I know
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: Wake is coming off of bye, so they do have
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: extra time to prepare for this game. I think they're
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: gonna step it up. I mean, they got SMU coming
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 1: to their place. You know, they got to be focused
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: on this game. I know normally I would say, you
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: don't want to be on a team that went into
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: a buy and a good note like Wake did. They
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: won two games in a row. But that buy is
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: gonna help them come back from the Pacific coast, so
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: it's gonna help alleviate the travel concerns. They're coming back home,
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: so I think that's good. And yeah, they're getting their
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: quarterback back Ashford, but I think the buy can actually
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: help alleviate that concern too, because normally it would be
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: like an injured player theory spot where a reverse injured
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: player spot where oh, or starting quarterbacks coming back, we're
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: not gonna play as hard or whatever. I don't think
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be the case here. They get more time
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: to READAPT so the chemistry shouldn't be a concern with
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: him coming back because they get an extra week to
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: help with that. And again, I mean, I don't think
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: they're gonna overlook SMU, so we will be on wig
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: Forest and that one for all those reasons. And yes,
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: I believe Ashford is coming back. He had a finger injury,
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: but he is coming back. You agree with Oklahoma? Hell yeah,
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: you're a fiend of the hockey, an ice fiend. Indianimized
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: twenty six and a half. I did not talk about
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: NC State. I Ken if you want me to, I
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: forget what my thoughts even were on that. I agree
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: with the leon in Indiana. Not a play for me, but.
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: I actually agree with that laying the points in that one.
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: All right? Next up for the best bets Iowa State
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half. You knew you already knew
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: what I was gonna do. Man, This game is at
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 1: three point thirty pm on Fox. We're fading BYU here, man.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, Iowa State is a favorite,
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: and they're unranked against the ranked BYU team. So I mean,
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: this is one of those classic spots, the unranked favorite
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 1: against a ranked opponent. It's a ranked opponent who's ranked
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: eleventh in the country. The oddsmakers are telling you hold
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: on a minute. And I know earlier in the season
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: I was saying Iowa State's not that good, they shouldn't
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: be ranked. I still agree with that, but I also
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: think that that's the case with BYU. I think they're
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: way overrated. BYU is the way more overrated of these
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: two teams now, and it's a terrible spot for BYU.
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: As I'm about to point out, the money is coming
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: on Iowa State. They're up from two to two and
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: a half here, it doesn't really matter two or two
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: and a half, I don't think. I mean, I know
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: with two point conversions, two is a little bit of
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: a more key number now, but three is obviously still
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: the key. So lay less than the three on Iowa State,
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: or lay the money line on it fifty four percent
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: of the ticket, sixty one percent of the cash on
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: Iowa State. So the money seems to agree with the
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: Iowa State side in this one. BYU, they're in a
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: terrible spot, dude, as I already alluded to. They're coming
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: off the Holy War beating Utah, knocking Utah from the rankings,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: huge win for BYU. BYU, as I said, they also
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: actually got out gained in the game by over one
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: hundred yards. It's just Utah was minus in the turnover
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: department and way minus in the penalty department. The game
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: was a misleading result, man, BYU shouldn't have won that game.
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: BYU has not been impressive, man, I mean, that's their
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: best wins so far, and prior to that, they had
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: a two overtime win against Arizona. So they're coming off
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: two big wins in a row. Really, or at least
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: two grueling games, having to go to double ot and
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: then facing a physical Utah team. I think they're gonna
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: be physically taxed after all that. Man, and they're playing
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech next, so though it is after a bye,
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 1: but that basically makes it a sandwich spot. It makes
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: it look like a it makes it a look ahead spot,
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: It makes it a sandwich spot. I mean, that's a
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 1: big game for b YU. Like along with Texas Tech,
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: they're on top of the Big twelve right now basically,
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: so that's gonna be a big game for them. I
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: think they might get caught by this Iowa State team
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 1: man BYU. The rest of their schedule is totally unimpressive.
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: I mean that Utah game is by far their best win.
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: Their best win prior to that was the Arizona one.
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: And I know they keep winning, but I don't think
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: it's gonna happen here. I think it's gonna come to
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: an end. B YU is not that good.
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: They lost Retz Laugh, their quarterback.
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 1: Who, as I keep pointing out from he was their
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: quarterback last year and they kicked him off the team
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: for having sex on campus, which is not allowed when
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: you're Mormon. So now they're going with Bachmeyer, who's not bad,
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 1: but I think it's a downgrade from Retz Left. I
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: expected this BYU team to be worse this year. I
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: think it's gonna come into playing this game. I know
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: Iowa State's not as good as people were saying that
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: they were at the beginning of the season, but they
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: faced some more difficult schedule than BYU. Actually, Iowa State
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: also beat Arizona, but they trounced them. They beat Iowa
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: which was a pretty good win. They beat Kansas State,
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: who's not terrible still, although Kansas State kind of outplayed
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: them in that Dublin game. But Iowa State, now they're
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: coming out of a bye and they went into the
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: buying a bad note. They lost two games in a row,
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 1: but it was back to back road games, and they
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: got derailed by that Cincinnati lost. Man, I told you
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: I thought Cincinnati was gonna beat them.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 2: They did.
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati just really, really good offensively, and Iowa State just
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 1: couldn't keep up with them in that game. And because
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: they think they took their first loss in that game,
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: Iowa State did. I think it hung them over into
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 1: that next game. They had to go out into elevation
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: into call Colorado. So they lost that game as well.
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: But I think this buy came at the best possible
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: time for them. Man, you take those two losses, you
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: go into the buy on that really bad note. You
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: get to fix things in that buy man, and prepare
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: something for BYU. So I think it's a very advantageous
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: buy for Iowa State. That's another advantage for Iowa State here. Yeah,
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: we're gonna go with Iowa State. Lay the points in
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: that one. So there's that game there byus quarterback is
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: number forty seven. I think I'm missing the reference on
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 1: that one. I think sometimes my mind just doesn't think
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: in the right way anymore. Man, I don't know what
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: the forty seven references. Next up, we're gonna go with
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 1: Missouri plus three. I'm gonna break one of my rules
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 1: in this one too. The money is strongly agreeing with
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: this one. I'm pretty sure you can get the three
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: right now because Vandy has gone up from a two
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: and a half to two and a half with heavy juice.
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure you can get that key number three
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 1: on this I saw it before I started the show.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: If you just hang around a little bit, I'm sure
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: you'll find a three if you want it on Missouri
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: if you can't find it already, seventy three percent of
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: the tickets on Vandy fifty six percent of the cash
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: coming in on the other side of Missouri. So Vandy
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: is a public darling at this point in Missouri. Still,
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 1: I think under the radar and get it and getting
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: the cash. Here, Vandy is ranked tenth in the country.
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: I do not think they're the tenth best team in
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: the country. I'm thinking maybe they're a top twenty five team.
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 1: But I think they're actually very, very overrated now at
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: this point. Whoops, what am I doing here? What did
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 1: I do?
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 2: No, don't bookmark it. I don't know what happened.
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there it is. This is at three thirty pm Eastern,
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: by the way, as well on ESPN. Missouri I think
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: is actually pretty much accurately ranked at fifteenth in the country.
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: I think they were about that power ratings wise, when
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: you look at what the power ratings guys have, which
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: are basically what the oddsmakers have Vandy overrated. Right now,
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are actually telling you that because Vandy's not
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: getting the full home field advantage here. Another thing I
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 1: like about this is Missouri has the better defense, so
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 1: you get the better defense getting points here. That's gonna
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: have me looking that way as well. That is the
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: case with Missouri. Vandy is the better offense, but Missouri
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: can run the football. Man, Both these teams are actually
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: really good at running the football, but I think Missouri
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: might be even a little bit better than Vandy is
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 1: that's what Missouri does. They play defense, they run the football,
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: and I love teams that do that because those teams
• 1:40:21
  Speaker 1: they tend to not turn it over as much, they
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: hold onto the ball more, they get more time at possession,
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: they grind the opponent down their physical and the public
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: doesn't like them because they don't score as much. So
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 1: I love teams in profile like that. And that was
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: part of the reason why I liked Missouri in that
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: game against Alabama. And I know they kind of got
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 1: outplayed more than what the final score looked against Alabama.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: Last week, they had to go to double overtime to
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: beat Auburn, and Auburn was even though the line is
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: close in this game, and I thought Auburn was gonna
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 1: be the winning side in this one.
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: The line is basically a pick the winner type of game.
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 1: I think because Missouri is ranked in Auburn is still
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: winless in the SEC and not ran. Now, I think
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 1: Missouri might see this game as an escape, like, hey,
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: we escape, we have to do things better. So I
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: think for that reason, Missouri is gonna be extra focus here.
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: I think They're gonna be focused anyway, because it's Vandy.
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: This game went into double overtime, though, which is that's
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: the rule that I'm breaking here. I almost never want
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: to play on a team that went into double overtime,
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: but in this case, I think they might see it
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: as an escape against an inferior team. I think Missouri
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 1: is gonna show up focus for this one. I think
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: the spot is a lot worse for Vandy here. Vandy's
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: coming off a pretty monumental win over LSU. I thought
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: that maybe they'd never beaten LSU before as a program.
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: They have, but it was like decades ago when they
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: beat LSU the last time. That was a huge win
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 1: for Vandy. It was revenge for losing LSU last year
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: as well. That's basically the legitimizer game for Vandy man
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: because who else is Vandy beaten? Their best win besides,
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 1: that was what South Carolina, And that was a game
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: where I gave out Vandy on the show in that
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 1: one because I thought South Carolina was just massively overrated
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: after so many defensive special team touchdowns in South Carolina. Yeah,
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: I know, their quarterback got hurt in the game, two sellers,
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: we got the game right. I think we were right
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: anyway in that game. But that's not that impressive of
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: a win for Vandy. So really, their big win is
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: the one that they had last week against LSU. That's
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 1: the legitimizer game, man, And again, I think when that happens,
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: I think the team's gonna letdown spot after that. I
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: know they're facing a ranked Missouri team, but that was
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 1: such a big win for the Vandy program, beating a
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: team like LSU where they hadn't done that before. So
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: now in the last two years, Vandy has beaten the
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: top guns man Alabama and LSU. Oh and by the way,
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: who's the team that they almost pulled off the upset
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: against last year? Who was the other top gun in
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: the SEC now? Oh yeah, that would be Texas and
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 1: that's who Vandy plays next. And I think Vandy's gonna
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: remember that game because they almost pulled off the upset
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 1: against Texas. They're gonna want revenge against Texas. Man, I
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 1: think Vandy might actually look right past Missouri in this one,
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: as ridiculous as that might sound, because it's a ranked matchup.
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: I think it's a terrible spot for Vandy. Last year
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: they did no Last year they did lose to Missouri
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: actually in Missouri in two overtime. So I guess technically
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: it's revenge for Vandy. But I think that the LSU
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: and the Texas games mean more man to Vandy than
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: this one. Doesn't mean you can only have so many
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 1: revenge games in a row and care about all of them.
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 1: I think the spot sets up a lot better for Missouri.
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 1: That's where we're going. The market agrees with it, so
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: we will do that as well. That's the second to
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: last play that I have here. Agree with Missouri.
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 2: But Pavia always finds a way.
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but that's that's not really a like a solid handicap,
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: like a solid reasoning for handicap.
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 2: Mad game, like this guy just always wins. Yeah, I
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 2: mean he does.
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 1: He's like a bulldog. But you can't. You can't just
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: have that every every single game, man. I mean, they're
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: gonna lose games somewhere, and they did lose to Alabama.
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: Alabama's better than Missouri, but still, uh yeah, I mean
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 1: I think that's a you know, that's just not really
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: a yeah. I don't know, it's not really a handicapping factor.
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: Oh interesting, you took South Carolina. I'm interesting you're gonna
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: put Missouri in? It is a Texas look ahead up? Yeah,
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 1: for for Vandy there, which I think is actually pretty big.
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I've liked Missouri all week, so I'm going
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: with that one. And then finally, oh yeah, my last play.
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: What is it again? Oh? Yeah, it's South Carolina plus
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: the points plus eleven and a half or whatever here. Oh,
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: by the way, I was gonna look real quick to see, like,
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 1: is there a is there an Iowa State like revenge
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: motive here against BYU?
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 2: I forgot.
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: I don't want to put too much stock into revenge
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: because these teams play each other every year, So the
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 1: revenge that matters is like, was it like a monumental
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 1: game that you really remember? I Alowa State didn't even
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 1: play BYU last year, it looks like so there's no
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: revenge angle there. So whatever. Anyway, South Carolina plus the
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 1: points here. I don't know what the best numbers you
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: can get on this. We missed the thirteen on this.
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 1: I think the best you can get is eleven and
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: a half right now. SAB got a better number twelve
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 1: and a half, but there's no real difference between twelve
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 1: and a half and eleven and a half. I wouldn't
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: say this line dropped from thirteen to eleven and a half.
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: Seventy six percent of the tickets, seventy two percent of
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 1: the cash. Hopefully it doesn't land exactly twelve. That would
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: be ridiculous and unlikely, but Alabama's public seventy six percent
• 1:45:31
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, only seventy two percent of the cash.
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: One thing we got going for this besides the fact
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: the market agrees with this and there's reverse line movement
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: coming and dropping the line going against the public Alabama
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: side here, one of the other things we have going
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: for us is it's a pretty low total again at
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 1: forty seven and a half, although I know it's gone
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 1: up a little bit. But it's a public over as well,
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 1: so I think we could see us some defense in
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: this one. Yeah, Alabama is the better team. Yeah, they're
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: fourth in the country. Both these teams play good defense,
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 1: though like South Carolina, their offense has been pretty miserable
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 1: this year, but they could still play defense, and I
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 1: think Alabama might just overlook South Carolina. Dude, I mean,
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 1: how many games could Alabama possibly go all out for
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: and keep winning. They've won four straight games against ranked teams,
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 1: and we did fade them in the Missouri game, and
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: they had a close game at least on the score board,
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 1: although they actually played a little bit better statistically. But yeah,
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: I mean that game was the only that was the
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: only game in that run where it was really a
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: game they didn't show up focus for. They beat Georgia
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: on the road, They beat Vandy in a revenge spot
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: at home, a little bit of a sandwich spot, went
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 1: on the road, had a little bit of a lesser
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: performance at Missouri, bounce back, and had a revenge win
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: against Tennessee last week. So now I think they're in
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot after that. Man, that was a huge
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: win for Alabama against Tennessee, especially because it was revenge
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: for Tennessee beating them last year. And now they get
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 1: the South Carolina team that I really don't think anybody's
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 1: taken seriously and then they have a bye. But who
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 1: do they have up next after the bye? They got LSU, Man,
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: and I know it's gonna be a bigger game for
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: LSU because that's a big revenge game for LSU after
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: Alabama went into LSU, I think, and beat them last
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 1: year and pretty much ended LSU season. But you know,
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 1: both those teams are gonna be looking ahead to that game. Man,
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 1: that's a huge game. And then Alabama does have Oklahoma
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 1: after that as well, and they have a big game
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 1: against Auburn, which is always a big rivalry game.
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 2: The egg Bowler or no, the iron Ball or it's.
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: The iron Ball, I think, yeah, the Egg Bowls, the
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: Mississippi Ones, right, Yeah, Auburn's the Iron Bowl. Auburn in Alabama,
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: I think, whatever it is, big game, have to finish
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: the season there. So this is one of the games
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: where I think Alabama just might not have full focus
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: on South Carolina. With Alabama coming into their place, you
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: know they're gonna try to get up for this game.
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: They're coming off an embarrassing loss kind of last week
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: where they only scored seven points against Oklahoma. Yeah, the
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: South Carolina offense isn't good. They fired their offensive line
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: coach a couple of weeks ago. It hasn't really helped
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 1: that much. But if it's gonna be a low scoring game,
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: we don't need them to score a ton here to
• 1:48:02
  Speaker 1: come within this number. Man hopefully, and hopefully is a
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 1: game where Alabama just doesn't go full throttle and they
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 1: kind of just get in get out. I think South
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: Carolina will get up for it again because it's one
• 1:48:12
  Speaker 1: of the biggest games on their schedule at this point,
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, they don't have a whole lot left to
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 1: play for him, and I mean they could try to
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 1: still become Bowl eligible here. It looks like they might
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 1: not be able to do that either at this point.
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 1: But you know that they're gonna treat this game as
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 1: a big game for once because it's Alabama coming into
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 1: their place. So one of the few games left on
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: the schedule that they will show focus for. And you
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 1: know Beamer, I mean, his job might be at stake here,
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: so he's they got to perform well for him in
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 1: that way too. If they like Shane Beemer there, if
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: they want him to stay, I don't know if the
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: players do like him or not.
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 2: I mean I kind of liked him.
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: I liked him on that on that documentary that was
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 1: on Netflix. I kind of liked Beamer. I mean, I
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: liked his vibe. I'm not sure if he's a very
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 1: good coach though. But South Carolina is the play in
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 1: that one. You think it's gonna go to the wire. Yeah,
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: I mean nobody's gonna want South Carolina a very ugly
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: offense too. You've been on soccer as well, okay, yea
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: full time soccer all right. I don't I don't know
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 1: anything about about the soccer stuff. You listened to the
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: guys at wager talking. Yeah, I've listened to those guys
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: since they were back on pregame and a bunch of
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: them left because I think they didn't like the management
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 1: at pregame. Uh So, Marco DiAngelo is my guy man.
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 1: Just his situational handicapping is what I've learned the most from.
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: I like him. I like Vegas Runner as well. Johnny
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 1: Gianni Yanni whoever you pronounces his name, Ace good market
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: reading stuff from him. Those guys are both at pregame.
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 1: I liked both of those guys. I liked their chemistry
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 1: together as well. I was following them and they I
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: think they both did a show with Gil Alexander back
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: in the day too. That was a good show. And
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: now the team is back because they do that wager
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 1: Talk show now bet on it. So I do like that.
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 1: I learned a lot from that show. Yeah, huge fan
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: of Marco, He's probably my favorite. Yeah, the wayger talking,
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, I kind of like the way they do
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: things better than pregame because it's kind of like Marco's thing.
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 1: Marco actually, I think started it with Scott Spritzer though,
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 1: who left wager Talk and went over to a doc
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 1: sports I think, and I haven't really heard much from him.
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 1: I don't follow the doc sports guy, so I don't know.
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 1: I assume he's still over there now. But yeah, wager Talk,
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: you know, I like a couple of those guys. I
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 1: like Brian Power at wager Talk as well. He does
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: a lot of situational ish stuff as well, so I
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: agree with him fairly often as well. And then Steve Merrill,
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: even though he's a little bit more of a numbers guy,
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: like relies on like his simulations a lot. I kind
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 1: of like his analysis as well. So those are the
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: guys that I mostly listened to. Nate, You're you're doing
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 1: some about soccer as well. I don't know anything about soccer.
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 1: Man you like Matt humans is at Vsen. Yeah, I
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: haven't really listened to much of him, but yeah, Vson
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 1: is also where Gil Alexander is. Now, all right, before
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: I get out of here, I will talk about that
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh game. I don't even remember what my opinion were
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 1: on this one. NC State at Pittsburgh, NC State. They're
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 1: coming out of a bye, I think, right, so immediately
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 1: I kind of start leaning towards NC State because they're
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 1: coming out of a bye and they went into the
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 1: buy in a bad note. They lost to Notre Dame.
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 1: They got blown out by Notre Dame. Seems like a
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 1: decent spot for ency State to kind of bounce back
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 1: after a going into the by on a bad note.
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 1: Usually use that buy to fix things. Pitt they played
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 1: last week and they're rolling right now. I mean, they
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: got that road wind where I think they looked better
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 1: than they actually were. So and they're using height show
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 1: at quarterback. He really didn't even do well against Syracuse
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 1: last week. He only had one hundred and forty yards
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 1: through the air, and they didn't really have any good
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: rushing performances either. So it's really ridiculous that that Pitt
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: was able to cover that number and beat us last
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: week with basically no offense in that game from Pitt.
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 1: Just horrible. So yeah, I agree with you on that one.
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 1: I think NC State is the right side. Although it
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: looks like you could have gotten maybe the full touchdown.
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 1: It looks like the live drop from nine and a
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 1: half to six six and a half in this one,
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 1: fifty percent of tickets, seventy nine percent of the cash
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 1: coming in an NC state, the money is agreeing with
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: NC State. I would have much preferred taking seven though
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 1: in NC State rather than the six and a half,
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 1: though getting the full touchdown there it's probably not gonna
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 1: come back. But yeah, generally I do agree with the
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 1: NC State side and that one. You like the guys
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 1: that waygers talking, Yeah, I see a lot of guys
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 1: out there just shitting on wager talk too and saying
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: that these guys are like, I don't know, scammers because
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 1: they're touts and they only put up their last twenty
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 1: like they're not transparent because they only like if you
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 1: go to one of their pages, they only put up
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 1: their last like twenty plays. But I don't know, man.
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 1: I mean the only like plays that I've actually like
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 1: purchased from them or when I when I get like, uh,
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: they sometimes give you like coupons and stuff and whatever.
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 1: So I've used some of those and gotten some plays
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 1: and it's worked out pretty well for me with those.
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean other than that, I haven't really
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 1: been like an actual like paying customer really there.
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 2: So I don't really know like that aspect of it.
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 2: But I mean I like the guys.
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: I think they're free. Analysis they give out is really
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 1: actually really good. So and I've met a couple of
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: the guys in person to well, a couple of the
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 1: gentlemen and ladies. Last year, they were out in the
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 1: Boston area for March Madness for the final four, so
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 1: I met Kelly Stewart Kelly in Vegas. She she likes
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 1: to keep people guessing what her height is, by the way,
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: so I won't give away what her height is. Although
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: my guest was inaccurate, I was wrong about what her
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 1: height is. Seeing her in person, I got to talk
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: to her. She definitely drinks a lot, which I think
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 1: that is that is well known. She drinks a lot,
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: and she talks a lot, and she talks a lot
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: about her dogs. But that's but that's fine, you know,
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: it's it's it's a fun time. And I got to
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 1: talk to Joe Ranieri he was there, hilarious, Dude. I
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 1: love talking to that guy. Man, He's fun. I like
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 1: talking to him. And I talked to Chris. Chris Thurston
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 1: is at his name as well CT. He's from the
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 1: Boston Aira, so I got to talk to him as well. Yeah.
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 2: So I met those three guys at that thing.
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 1: Last year, but Joe was my favorite one to hang
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: out with though, Like I just think I vibed with
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: him more so. Yeah, Marco this situational spot. Yeah he
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 1: does the yeah, the whatever it is, the Deli Show,
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 1: the Sandwich Spot, and Dude, my plays. I already had
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 1: decided pretty much on these plays before I watched his show,
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 1: and I'm on three of his four college football plays
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 1: he gave on on that show this week, I'm on them.
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 1: That's not always the case. I think this is the
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 1: most in alignment with that show that I've been with him.
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 1: Usually I'll have like maybe one in agreement with him
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 1: that I actually give out as a play. I usually
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 1: agree with almost all of them that he gives out,
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 1: but usually my like actual plays that I give out
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: that align with his show, there will only be like
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 1: one or maybe two of them. This week we got three,
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: and I think I'm actually gonna be on his NFL
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 1: one too, which I was already playing. I'm doing. I'm
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 1: gonna I just use him as kind of like a
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 1: confirmation sometimes like oh yeah, I agree with that, but
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 1: I still do my own thing, my own handicapping, my
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 1: own thinking on it. But thanks guys for hanging out
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 1: another two hour show. We're gonna get it in under
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 1: the wire. Man, Let's get it under right now once again.
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 1: My play is Oklahoma minus five, Wake Forest plus three
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 1: and a half, Iowa State minus two and a half,
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 1: Missouri plus three, and South Carolina plus eleven and a half.
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 1: Let's get a winning day tomorrow, man, let's keep this going.
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 1: I'll be back in the morning because we're gonna have
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 1: I think baseball, hockey, and NBA all happening tomorrow, so
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 1: mostly hockey. Usually there's a lot of hockey on Saturday,
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 1: so we'll likely have some other plays there with those.
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 1: I gotta get out of here. I gotta do Instagram
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 1: videos on these plays too, and get the audio out. Man,
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 1: I should get paid more for this. I should just
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 1: be back to actual betting, man, because yeah, I mean,
• 1:55:54
  Speaker 1: what am I doing? Like I shouldn't have just when
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 1: I got fired. I shouldn't just transition to just betting
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 1: more money full time because I've been doing this for
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 1: like eighteen years. So I don't know, man, I don't
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 1: know what I'm thinking. But I was like, I can't
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 1: take the risk anymore, you know, I can't fund it.
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Yeah, the Avalanche a coming to Boston.
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to the game, but yeah, I mean Bruins, man,
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 1: the Bruins are an absolute mess. I don't know what
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 1: to think. I don't know what to say about that,
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I think that game might be tomorrow. I'm
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 1: gonna get out of here for now. We gotta get
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: some sleep as well. Thanks for hanging out guys, sob Nate.
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it, man, you guys are you guys are
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 1: other regulars And we had Britney early in the show
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 1: complimenting my uke. Thank you, Britney. I appreciate it for sure. Yeah.
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 1: Check everything out that I do, man, Learn a tone
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 1: on Twitter. Learn it tone on Instagram, like, subscribe to
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 1: the channel here, give me more more stuff here, you know,
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 1: let's get these subscribers up, especially because I'm so fucking
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 1: hot right now. Let's go. Man, everybody's gonna want this.
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 1: I'm giving out gold. It's just very long winded. Yeah.
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 1: And then I'm on the audio platform Spotify, Apple give
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 1: me good review over there. That helps as well. Listening
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 1: on there helps me out as well. The numbers keep
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 1: going up, so that's good. They're not big, but they're
• 1:57:10
  Speaker 1: going up. Covered in you because the Yuke channel on YouTube, so.
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 2: You can check that out as well.
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 1: Gotta get my recent cover up there, the thirty seconds
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: to Mars. Gotta get these Spotify feed updated. I know
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 1: I'm like four or so covers behind on that one.
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 1: I gotta keep doing it. Patreon dot com, slash learn
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: to Tone if you want that Spotify feed and prioritize requests,
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 1: which Charles took advantage of. Charles is avoiding me tonight though,
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 1: because he replied to me on Instagram and I was
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 1: very furious about the Celtics loss. I'm a little bit
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 1: less furious with the fact that I went three and
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 1: one tonight though, but the Celtics are just infuriating me.
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 1: I'm just very very sad about it. Charles. Hopefully we'll
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 1: be back tomorrow morning. Charles, I apologize. I'm ann ass.
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 2: Sometimes.
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 1: I just said, don't talk to me right now, is
• 1:57:57
  Speaker 1: what I said, you know. I mean, that's just yeah,
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 1: I go into a hole when I'm losing. Man, I
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 1: don't want to talk to anybody that's gonna do it.
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 1: For now. I appreciate it, guys. I'll be back in
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 1: the morning. Peace.