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Elon Musk Issues Dire Warning to Bill Gates · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey everybody, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
• 0:05
  This is a show where we discuss the critical crossroads, the
• 0:08
  shape. SpaceX.
• 0:09
  Tesla X. The Boring Company and
• 0:12
  Neuralink. I'm your host, Will.
• 0:15
  Walden Elon Musk has issued a warning to Bill Gates and has
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  threatened the Microsoft Co founder with severe financial
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  consequences if he continues betting against Tesla.
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  Now, Musk foresees a dramatic transformation for Tesla,
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  envisioning the carmaker becoming a colossal entity
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  valued at $30 trillion. This forecast hinges on Tesla's
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  successful shift from primarily selling electric vehicles to
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  managing a profitable fleet of robo taxis and humanoid robots.
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  Musk's ominous message to Gates was shared on social media,
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  where he stated once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has Optimus
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  in volume production, anyone still holding a short position
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  will be obliterated, even Gates. The animosity between the two
• 1:05
  billionaires became public in 2022 when text messages revealed
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  Musk's refusal to support Gates's charitable efforts.
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  Due to Gates's significant short position against Tesla now, Musk
• 1:18
  expressed his disapproval in a message saying.
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  Sorry, but I cannot take your philanthropy on climate change
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  seriously when you have a massive short position against
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  Tesla, the company doing the most to solve climate change.
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  By then, Gates had already begun regretting his pessimistic
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  stance on Tesla, though it's uncertain if he still maintains
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  that position despite Musk's strong warning.
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  It's a bold claim considering Tesla's recent struggles.
• 1:47
  The company's vehicle sales have declined by 6.6% in the first
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  half of the year, and the highly anticipated Cybertruck has not
• 1:56
  met expectations. Now, Tesla has abandoned its
• 2:02
  ambitious target of increasing volumes from 1.8 million EVs
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  last year to 20 million by 2030. Nonetheless, Musk remains
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  undeterred by adversity. He has previously outlasted
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  other notable Tesla shorts like David Einhorn and Jim Chanos,
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  known for profiting from the collapses of Lehman Brothers and
• 2:23
  Enron, respectively. Since April, Musk has been
• 2:27
  working to stabilize Tesla's stock, beginning with hints of a
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  new Cyber Cab robotaxi model, suggesting he might finally
• 2:37
  achieve full autonomy. Additionally, Musk announced
• 2:41
  that 2025 could see a resurgence in EV sales with the
• 2:45
  introduction of new low cost models, potentially marking a
• 2:49
  turn around for the stock. Concerns that Musk might resign
• 2:52
  from Tesla over the loss of his 2018 compensation deal, valued
• 2:57
  at $70 billion at the current stock price, were largely
• 3:02
  dispelled when Vanguard and other significant investors
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  expressed their support for him last month.
• 3:09
  On Tuesday, Tesla reported it had avoided a steeper decline in
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  Q2 vehicle sales by selling off excess inventory.
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  By reducing EV production to its lowest level since Q 3/20/22,
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  Tesla redirected surplus battery cells to its stationary energy
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  storage business, more than doubling its Q1 volume to an
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  unprecedented 9.4 GW hours deployed.
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  This move has added $100 billion to Tesla's market capitalization
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  over the past two days, currently trading at 70 times
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  next year's earnings. Tesla's valuation is high even
• 3:46
  for a growth stock, especially one expected to see declines in
• 3:49
  revenue and earnings in 2024. However, investors confident in
• 3:55
  Musk's vision for robot butlers might view the current market
• 3:58
  cap of $740 billion as a minor issue.
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  Musk envisions widespread adoption of robots, aiming for
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  one in every business and home, ultimately reaching a production
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  rate of 1 billion droids per year.
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  Musk plans to sell these Optimus robots at $20,000 each, despite
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  production costs being only $10,000, ensuring a 50% profit
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  margin per unit. This would result in annual
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  profits of $1 trillion, translating to a market cap of
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  $25 trillion. With a standard earnings
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  multiple of 25, adding $5 trillion for the future Robo
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  taxi fleet, Musk believes this presents a substantial value for
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  current investors. Critics argue that Musk's
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  projections are overly optimistic.
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  For instance, the market demand for such robots might not
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  parallel the demand for smartphones, which are
• 4:55
  significantly cheaper cars. A more comparable product C
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  annual sales of about 100 million units.
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  Due to their higher price points, Chanos and others
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  contend that Musk's estimates imply a market cap approaching
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  1/3 of the world's total annual economic output, a highly
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  improbable scenario. Musk's previous prediction of
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  reaching 20 million EV sales by 20-30, which would surpass the
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  combined output of the two largest carmakers globally, was
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  based on replacing 1% of the two billion cars currently on the
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  road each year. This ambitious target was
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  quietly dropped well before the 20-30 deadline, highlighting the
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  need for Musk to produce more realistic projections moving
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  forward. In the meantime, Tesla's shares
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  surged by 10% on Tuesday, following better than expected
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  Q2 delivery numbers. The company delivered 404 three
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  sound 956 vehicles and produced 410,831 in Q2 2024, surpassing
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  analysts expectations of 439,000 deliveries.
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  Despite a 4.8% year over year decline in deliveries, This
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  represented a 14.8% increase from Q1.
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  Tesla groups its deliveries into two categories, Model 3 and
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  Model Y vehicles and all other vehicles, but does not report
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  numbers for specific models or regions.
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  Earlier this year, Tesla reported an 8.5% drop in Q1
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  deliveries, marking the 1st annual decline since 2020.
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  This was followed by a 13% year over year revenue decrease for
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  the quarter, mainly due to lower average selling prices.
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  Now, the decline was partly due to temporary factory shutdowns
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  in response to an alleged arson attack at Tesla's German factory
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  and shipping delays from Red Sea conflicts.
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  Additionally, Tesla's aging vehicle line up and increasing
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  competition, particularly from Chinese EV makers, have impacted
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  sales. A recent survey attributed part
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  of Tesla's brand erosion to CEO Musk's public behavior and
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  political statements. To boost sales, Tesla has
• 7:15
  offered various incentives and discounts throughout the year.
• 7:18
  In China, Tesla is offering zero interest loans to encourage
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  purchases of the Model 3 and Model Y by the end of July.
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  Tesla generated approximately $21.00 and $75 billion from
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  China in 2023, accounting for 22.5% of its total sales.
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  However, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan advised selling
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  Tesla shares, citing declining delivery growth driven by lower
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  demand and diminished return on price cuts.
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  Now, Wells Fargo anticipates a decrease in Tesla's automotive
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  gross margins, excluding environmental credits, due to
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  more price cuts and lower volumes.
• 8:01
  Investors are now focusing on Tesla's Q2 earnings report later
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  this month and a marketing event in August, where the company
• 8:09
  plans to unveil its design for a dedicated robotaxi or cyber cab.
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  While Tesla continues to explore new technologies and markets, it
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  faces stiff competition, especially in battery
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  production. LG Energy Solution aims to
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  commercialize a new dry coating technology by 2028, which could
• 8:27
  significantly reduce production costs.
• 8:30
  This innovation could position LG as a strong competitor to
• 8:34
  Chinese battery manufacturers and potentially challenge
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  Tesla's market position. Hey, thank you so much for
• 8:44
  listening today. I really do appreciate your
• 8:47
  support. If you could take a second and
• 8:48
  hit the subscribe or the follow button on whatever podcast
• 8:51
  platform that you're listening on right now, I greatly
• 8:54
  appreciate it. It helps out the show
• 8:56
  tremendously and you'll never miss an episode.
• 8:59
  And each episode is about 10 minutes or less to get you
• 9:02
  caught up quickly. And please, if you want to
• 9:05
  support the show even more, go to patreon.com/stagezero and
• 9:11
  please take care of yourselves and each other and I'll see you
• 9:13
  tomorrow.