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Week 5 College Football Picks You Gotta Hear! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:00
So yeah, I I cut that out. Hello everybody.
0:03
Welcome to Karting winners week five of the college football
0:07
season. Tim down here in Jacksonville
0:10
with Darren and Pete. Peter, how you doing?
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Not too bad. Good to be here, good to be back
0:15
this week. Excited to make some picks and
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get my record moving in the right direction here so looking
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forward to today. Back from vacation?
0:21
Did you buy any Christmas decorations?
0:24
I I did, I did not that that is definitely Darren's job to buy
0:28
Christmas decorations. So yeah, you should ask him
0:30
about his. Darren from upstate New York,
0:33
how you doing man? I'm good man, good to be here.
0:36
And much like Pete was trying to rebound, we all went two and one
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two weeks ago and we followed it up by each of us going one and
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two. So yeah, let's alternate and get
0:45
back on the winning track. I blame Baylor.
0:49
I I blame Iowa for scoring 38 points out of nowhere.
0:52
What was that? 38 points this year, so I don't
0:55
know what that was like. I literally just settled down to
0:58
relax and I was watching the Tulsa game and Tim texted me and
1:00
was like, it's 2 minutes in and it's seven to seven.
1:02
I'm like, what? Like that's supposed to be half
1:05
time. It's the Greatest Show on turf
1:07
all of a sudden up there in Iowa.
1:11
I did not see that coming. I'm telling you what.
1:14
Some we should watch out for with with that Utah game, the
1:17
odd start times, you know, with that 10:00 AM local time start
1:21
that may have something to do. I mean it techs, I mean, I think
1:23
this tech kicked the crap out of them.
1:24
I don't think it mattered, but it could be something to look
1:28
into when you make the bets in the future, so.
1:30
Yeah, for. Sure.
1:31
It's funny that you mentioned that, Tim, because two of my 3
1:33
plays, part of the handicap was start time.
1:40
Yeah. Bum, bum, bum.
1:43
Spoiler alert. Like a teaser or something.
1:45
I don't know what the hell that even means, but yeah, I just.
1:48
Well, watch this. I even got a stack, God darn it,
1:52
to back it up. So guarantees me another one and
1:55
two week. But let's.
1:56
Go yeah well the start time kept me from betting obviously
2:00
Florida State, Virginia, I was looking at that game a lot and
2:03
I'm not going to touch it. But Friday night games, Thursday
2:08
night games, especially with Virginia, they would have first
2:10
seen the beat FSU in ACC playback 20-30 years ago.
2:14
Whatever with Tiki Barber and the Hell's his brother's name?
2:18
Grande. How do you even remember that
2:20
20-30 years ago that. You just, you just brought that
2:24
back to my memory. I remember that now.
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I remember where I was, I was drinking coffee and I was so
2:30
shocked. I dropped the mug and it
2:31
shattered so. Well, let's not doom your team
2:36
tomorrow night already, so let's just.
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Say no, no, no, definitely. Yeah, definitely don't want to
2:41
do that. So should we just pop into our
2:44
picks and see what's going on here?
2:45
Dive in. Let's go first pick.
2:49
This one is 1 of mine. This is basically, you know,
2:55
this is a fate of UCLA and we talked about it a little bit.
2:58
I remember last year with fading Florida State the whole year
3:02
after week one, we would have been right 9 out of 10 times.
3:05
So I'm just doing this again for the rest of the year.
3:08
I am fading UCLAI know they're getting 6 1/2 points.
3:12
I know Northwestern sucks too, but they're at home.
3:16
They got the 2, two time zone travel and all that.
3:22
Yeah. I just, with everything that's
3:24
going on there now, I don't see UCLA winning if they win.
3:28
I, I think if I just do this the rest of the rest of the year,
3:31
I'm going to be, I'm going to win a lot more of these bets
3:33
that I'm going to lose. I don't know if you have any
3:35
thoughts. I did no research on this.
3:37
Whatever. It's just a blind fade of UCLA.
3:41
Well, I mean, both these teams are not good, right?
3:43
Over under is 44 1/2. I considered the under on this.
3:46
I was definitely leading the under because I, I don't know
3:48
what Northwestern's going to do to to score much at all.
3:51
And UCLA, to your point, is, is fading.
3:55
Plus Northwestern's defense is actually pretty good ish, right,
3:58
So ish right. So, you know, I, I mean, the
4:02
team that's not very good on offense playing a decent
4:04
defense. I mean, I, I was leaning pretty
4:06
heavily on the on the under here, but I did not play it.
4:09
But yeah, I see a low scoring game here.
4:12
Any thoughts Darren on this one? Yeah, I actually had looked at
4:15
this game and and considered playing it, but you guys
4:18
basically covered everything. UCLA defensively terrible.
4:23
They're not taking the ball away.
4:24
Nico has been a bust up to this point and man, I don't know what
4:28
the hell is wrong with Preston Stone, but after 2023 he has
4:32
just become I don't even know he I mean 6 picks already.
4:37
I'm just like I I can't trust Northwestern because of that,
4:41
but I think they're gonna win. But I just have if they don't
4:44
turn the ball over, yeah, they should win this one by 14.
4:47
You know, I I'm a big believer in the in the multiple time zone
4:50
thing. So so I don't like this spot for
4:52
UCLA. The reason I didn't fire with
4:55
you here is I just Preston Stone's like a a disappointing
5:00
stepchild, man. He just does not.
5:03
I believe earlier this week when we were texting the term you
5:06
used was ass. I did but then when the site
5:11
made the shorts it actually put ass in quotes for one of our
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shorts so I'm trying to avoid that.
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I've already and I've already failed so.
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I guess if. It doesn't and it makes another
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short with the word ass in the title.
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I just won't post it. But yeah, I mean, I, I I agree
5:29
with both of what you guys said, Pete spot odd Notre Notre Dame
5:32
good freaking God. Northwestern defense.
5:35
Yeah, I mean, their defense is ish, but that's way better than
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anything UCLA has put out on the field so far.
5:40
And what do you what do you expect from the Bruins after the
5:43
coach gets fired? I mean, I I don't know.
5:45
Are they going to rally or do they really suck that bad?
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It doesn't matter if they rally. I don't know.
5:51
But but credit to you and your your big 10 balls for betting
5:55
this game because I could not bring myself to do it.
5:58
But I like where you're going because initially I was going to
6:00
lay the points with Northwestern as well.
6:02
I saw a story that Nico may, there's rumors of him
6:05
transferring to Texas Tech next year or some.
6:08
Maybe sometime this year. He may just 'cause they did it
6:10
in Week 3, right? He got fired in weeks.
6:14
I mean, he's got 30 days, so he he doesn't have to wait till he
6:17
doesn't have to do it before week 4, even though that's
6:19
passed now. So he's still got 30 days at
6:22
least from when Foster got let go so.
6:24
Yep. I think he thinks that's just a
6:26
bad look. He's gonna have to stay there.
6:29
Right. All right, then we're going to
6:31
move on to 1 of yours. We got Georgia Tech and Wake
6:34
Forest. Yeah, Speaking of games, I'm not
6:37
super confident in here. I did lay the 13 1/2 with
6:41
Georgia Tech. It's fourteen in a lot of
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places. I did have to to pay some -120
6:45
juice at FanDuel for this year. I just like Georgia Tech's
6:50
strength of schedule up to this point compared to what Wake
6:53
Forest has has played. We all know the Haynes brothers
6:57
on Georgia Tech, Haynes King and Jamal Haynes.
7:00
They should have incredible success running against Wake
7:02
Forest here. You know, I was impressed with
7:05
Georgia Tech going to Colorado and winning the opening week,
7:09
even though Clemson is kind of that word that you tell me I'm
7:13
trying to stop using. Yeah.
7:15
Still, it was an impressive win. The way they got that field goal
7:18
unit out there in less than 15 seconds to that was pretty cool.
7:23
They must practice that every. Day, give it to them.
7:26
No issues there getting all eleven of those guys out.
7:28
But I mean, you know, Georgia Tech strength schedule is 74th,
7:31
Wake Forest is 200 and second. So yes, that means there are
7:34
dozens of FCS teams that have played harder schedules than
7:38
Wake Forest up to this point. I just see a game where this may
7:42
be close, you know, at halftime, but then maybe Haynes King and
7:47
Jamal Haynes can kind of put this one away.
7:50
The only thing that gave me pause was Wake Forest is coming
7:52
off a buy. You know, they are at home.
7:55
You know, Georgia Tech doesn't have to travel too far here.
7:57
But anytime you get 14 days to prep for an opponent, that's an
8:01
advantage over somebody who's only got 7.
8:03
But I I just think Georgia Tech has a much better roster here.
8:08
You know, again, this might have been a number play.
8:10
If it was 14 at all the books that I've got, maybe I would
8:13
have left it alone. But yeah, I, I, I got a one unit
8:16
play on Tech here. I think they get this done.
8:19
Yeah, I agree. I can see that happening.
8:20
Just yeah, like you said, the Haynes brothers are they're
8:24
good. This whole team is, you know, I
8:25
thought they would take a step back a little bit offensively
8:28
with Singleton leaving to Ortigo.
8:31
Auburn, I think. Yeah, Auburn.
8:32
He went to Auburn so. They seem to be chugging.
8:35
Right along some. Some run defense issues of their
8:38
own. I mean, they gave up almost 160
8:39
yards rushing to Kennesaw State in a in a home game that they
8:41
won 10 to 9 and NC State ran wild on them.
8:45
Two weeks ago, Hollywood Smothers had like almost 170
8:49
yards by himself. So you know, assuming Haines
8:52
King gets through all four quarters without getting
8:55
destroyed or concussed, you know this should be at least a 17
8:58
point win here. Any final thoughts Peter on this
9:01
one? No, I agree over 150 1/2.
9:04
I I considered I kicked the tires on it.
9:06
I mean, Georgia Tech's I think has the better roster to
9:08
Darren's point, I thought, I think Wake's going to get
9:11
behind. And the reason I consider the
9:12
over is because that Wake tends to play pretty fast when they're
9:15
trailing. So that could very well lead to
9:18
additional points on either side.
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So I think there's AI have a slight lean on the over.
9:23
I did not play it, but it's it's intriguing.
9:25
But I do think Georgia Tech, I I like that bet.
9:27
I think they're going to cover that easily.
9:30
Pete, keep talking. We got Houston and Oregon State.
9:34
All right, all right, so over under is 47 1/2.
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I'm I, this is like my highest confidence pick of the week
9:43
here. You know, Houston plays a slower
9:47
kind of run heavy type of type of game.
9:50
Oregon State. I mean, they did not look good
9:52
last week. They did virtually nothing
9:55
against Oregon, which was another one of my plays last
9:57
week, which bit me in the backside because they didn't
10:01
score. I don't expect them to do a heck
10:03
of a lot more this time over So. And I see just red zone on both
10:08
sides. Explosiveness has been lacking.
10:11
Lots of field goals, punts, that type of thing.
10:14
We could see some dam condition, conditions possibly or maybe
10:17
wind, which could, you know, once again, suppress scoring.
10:20
So a lot of things here lead me to think that the score is going
10:24
to be suppressed in this game and I, I, you know, so from that
10:27
perspective, that 47 1/2 was pretty juicy to me.
10:31
So I did, you know, I could see something like a 2717 game or 24
10:35
to 13, something like that. So I, I actually think under,
10:39
but pretty, you know, pretty solidly under as well.
10:42
So I did put one unit on the under at 47 1/2.
10:48
Hey, Darren. Any thoughts with that?
10:50
Yeah, I agree there. I I love Houston this year.
10:54
I believe they were my surprise team in the conference.
10:57
I think offensively they're really good and I think
10:59
defensively they're still almost as good as they were last year.
11:02
Oregon State has got issues. That may be another hot seat
11:06
candidate out there. Trent Bray, I believe his name
11:09
is, could easily be fired before too long.
11:11
They've just shown nothing. I I haven't watched enough to
11:16
see if maybe they look like a team that might be just giving
11:18
up on the season. But that effort against Oregon
11:20
in a rivalry game leads me to believe that that there's just
11:23
nothing here. This, this they may just be
11:25
waiting for December to call it a call it a season.
11:27
But yeah, I don't see Oregon State doing too much.
11:30
So, yeah, an under. I like that play.
11:32
Yeah, some of the team, you could probably fade really.
11:34
I mean, if you think about it, I have to check with their how
11:36
they've been against the spread so far this year, but I can't
11:38
imagine it's good. So another one to check out.
11:43
All right, I got to go into another one of mine here.
11:44
We got Mississippi State and Tennessee.
11:47
Let me see if I can get the right pick up there.
11:51
Yeah, this one I went back and forth with, you know, I was
11:55
really thinking about playing over so, but I, you know,
12:01
obviously decided against. I'm going to go, I'm going to
12:02
take Tennessee and I'll lay a point.
12:05
I'm expecting them. I I think they can get out
12:07
early. If they can get up and get out
12:10
early, especially in the second-half, their their pass
12:13
rush could take over. I'm expecting maybe a scooping
12:15
score or something like that to get up over to 7 1/2.
12:18
It started at 10 and now that I got it at 7 1/2, it makes me
12:22
feel feel pretty good about it. Like I said, the pass rush is
12:27
going to make a make a big play. They could play a big part in
12:32
the game. They can make life suck for the
12:33
quarterback there. What's it Stapin?
12:35
Is that his name? Yeah, shape and whatever.
12:40
He's not going to have a good day, no matter how much cowbell
12:43
they have. Also, it's not much of A stat,
12:47
but they don't want to lose 2 in a row.
12:49
I mean, you certainly can't go in there, especially in the SEC.
12:52
You can't go even though one is, quote UN quote, a good loss.
12:57
If there's such a thing. They would say, well, they lost
13:01
to Georgia in overtime. But yeah, you don't want to lose
13:03
2 in a row. That could affect your playoff
13:05
hopes. Like I said, it opened at 10.
13:07
I got it at 7 1/2, so I played Tennessee minus the 7 1/2 on the
13:13
road. What do you think guys?
13:18
Again, the balls are ginormous. I wouldn't want any part of this
13:21
game. Went back and forth.
13:23
I almost if, if my other choice wasn't the Florida State
13:26
Virginia game, I probably would have, you know, would have
13:29
played that one and said I'm not, I'm not touching FSU.
13:32
Yeah, I could. I mean, credit to Pete, one of
13:34
his futures bets had already hit his Mississippi State over the 3
13:37
1/2 win total as they sit at four and O currently.
13:41
I I just remember when I was on vacation, they had that late.
13:44
Yes, Congrats. That shocking win over Arizona
13:51
State. I I don't know, man, there must
13:54
be an hour in the cowbell. Yeah.
13:56
I mean, I think when when it's 10, now you come off at 10.
13:59
I mean, I bite it, and maybe if it goes to seven, but a lot of
14:02
sevens and a half. But I see you're juiced, meaning
14:06
like it's heading back up to 8. So yeah, if this was on the RPO
14:12
it would be like Looney Tunes when they run through the wall
14:15
and the hole is the silhouette of the actual.
14:16
Person running yeah, right. I wouldn't want a man credit.
14:22
To you bro you'd be like 2 Big 12 games last week and then the
14:25
game so far this week. I don't want any parts.
14:32
I mean, I mean one and two of them last week, so I mean.
14:36
I I like the bet. I mean it, I mean, logic would
14:38
say that Tennessee is going to step up and step back and win
14:41
this game. I, I would think so, even with,
14:43
you know, Mississippi State playing well and all that.
14:45
Yeah. I mean, I like, I like the bet.
14:47
I, I think, you know, maybe something like a 30 to 20 game
14:50
would not be shocking. So yeah, that would fit into
14:53
that, into that category and I think would make sense.
14:55
So I, I like the bet. I I didn't really look at it in
14:58
that in that regard, but it makes sense to me.
15:01
All right, wow. Making sense.
15:02
I like that. All right, Darren, we got one of
15:06
yours coming up. We got Cal and Boston College.
15:09
Yeah, so much like you, you're fading UCLA.
15:12
This is kind of a fade of Cal here.
15:16
I am not a fan of Bill O'Brien or what BC is bringing to the
15:19
table defensively so far this year.
15:22
However, their quarterback Dylan Lonergan is pretty legit.
15:25
He's got almost 1000 yards passing already in a nine to one
15:29
TD to interception ratio and they need it because they can't
15:32
really run the ball either. So why am I laying almost a
15:36
touchdown here in this conference game?
15:39
Couple reasons. First of all, we talked about
15:43
the the travel. We talked about that a lot
15:47
couple weeks ago. Cal hosted, or I'm sorry,
15:50
Stanford hosted Boston College, Boston College all the way
15:52
across the country, turned the ball over three times, lost 30
15:56
to 20, you know. Yeah.
15:59
And then Stanford this past week flies all the way across the
16:03
country to Virginia and loses by 4 touchdowns.
16:07
So you have Cal here who actually started out better, I
16:10
think, than a lot of us thought they would.
16:12
We kind of, we kind of bashed them in our ACCP and rightfully
16:15
so. They had pretty much a mass
16:16
exodus of the entire roster. But everybody was kind of
16:20
talking Cal when they beat Minnesota.
16:21
And that was actually a pretty good performance from them last
16:24
week. However, a 14 1/2 point favorite
16:27
against lowly San Diego State, not only did they not cover that
16:32
spread, not only did they not win the game, they lost 34 to
16:36
nothing. And I have a feeling that that
16:38
may be the Cal that we thought we were gonna get coming into
16:42
this season. So now Boston College coming off
16:45
a bye, they're at home. Their last 40 conference games,
16:48
they're 26 and 14 against the spread, if you're into that kind
16:51
of thing. Found that like an hour ago.
16:53
Thought I'd check that in there. But yeah, this is, you know, and
16:56
the travel is a huge part here. This is a 330 game, which means
17:01
it's a 12/30 body clock game for Cal.
17:06
I think what we saw last week is is closer to the Cal team that
17:09
we expected more than what we saw when they beat Minnesota.
17:12
So I don't really trust Boston College, but again, I I don't
17:19
see how Cal gets up for this game after that beat down last
17:21
week. And like I said, BC in
17:24
conference play is is pretty solid bet.
17:25
So again, at six, again, if it was 7, maybe I avoid this, but 6
17:30
1/2 I'll take the home team that didn't have to travel anywhere.
17:34
Yeah, he had me at the home off a by and the the Cal travels so
17:38
that's all I really need. Is odd because I'm not betting
17:40
Wake Forest to his home off a by.
17:45
You put Georgia Tech against all three of these teams.
17:48
I think Georgia Tech steamrolls them all.
17:49
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah of. Course, but you know, you have
17:52
to consider the opponent. But that San Diego State game
17:55
was telling. I think that's the Cal we all
17:57
know and love. Any final thoughts with that
18:01
one? Peter?
18:01
No. Excellent bet.
18:02
I mean over under is 52 1/2. I seriously considered going
18:05
under. I think that number feels really
18:07
inflated to me. I don't know what Cal's going to
18:08
do, if anything at all, but I certainly expect so.
18:11
I would not be surprised to be like a 30 to 10 win for BC still
18:16
that's way under right? So for me, I think this under is
18:19
pretty solid as I almost bet it. I'm leaning very heavily under
18:23
here. So I, I wouldn't blame anybody
18:26
if they if they bet the under in this one because it makes a lot
18:28
of sense. But I, I chose not to keep.
18:32
On moving, Peter, keep talking. Say something intelligent.
18:36
That's going to be hard. I don't do that very often, but
18:39
I can do my best. So LSU, Ole Miss, yeah.
18:43
So over under 54 1/2. Yeah.
18:47
So I guess you can see on the bottom of the screen already.
18:50
I, you know, I took the over 54 1/2 here.
18:54
Ole Miss is going to push the tempo, especially at home.
18:57
They're going to push the tempo. So there's going to be a lot of
18:59
plays. I would expect a lot of scoring,
19:01
you know, either for them or them or them making mistakes and
19:04
LSU capitalizing on that. LSU has been relatively
19:07
explosive. Their offense has been
19:09
relatively balanced. They don't they don't just grind
19:12
it out. They throw the ball too red zone
19:15
TD right on both for both teams is actually pretty good.
19:18
They're both pretty highly efficient in the red zone, You
19:21
know, defense, you know, they're both they're both OK, but
19:24
neither is a lockdown unit, right?
19:25
So I do think the offense on both sides is going to have a
19:29
pretty good day. So, you know, to me, and now
19:32
that, you know, 54 1/2 looked a little, looked a little
19:35
enticing. I mean, I could see a pretty
19:36
close game, something like a 3431, you know, 3828, something
19:42
like that. And to me, those are all over.
19:45
So it made a lot of sense here. So I'm going over 54 1/2.
19:50
Many thoughts. Peter, Aaron.
19:53
By the way, but I mean he betting an Ole Miss over what
19:57
were the odds who saw that coming that?
20:01
Was the last beer when I did it 4.
20:02
Oh, but you did it like 5 times. So yeah, yeah.
20:07
I don't know how much you believe in like side things that
20:09
mean nothing, but Lane Kiffin's daughter dating the LSU
20:13
linebacker. Lane just seems like the kind of
20:16
guy that's going to stick it to his own kid.
20:17
If he can put up 40, he's going to he.
20:20
Will. LSU can't be this bad
20:23
offensively. I mean, one of these days
20:25
they're they're going to get in the 20s and it very easily could
20:28
be this weekend here. But I can see I don't know what
20:31
the line is here, but I could see Lane doing everything in his
20:36
power. And I guess Simmons isn't
20:38
starting, but the guy who filled in last week actually did really
20:42
well. So I don't see a drop off Ole
20:45
Miss offensive performance at all.
20:47
So yeah, if LSU could add anything to this, I I think this
20:51
one will will get into the 60s. Yeah, yeah, I still don't like
20:56
Lane Kiffin. I'm not touching any on this
20:57
game. The rest of the the rest.
21:01
Of the all right, so this one this is one of mine.
21:04
This next one big game for me for a lot of reasons.
21:09
Well, first of all, my big future bet plus 6000 on
21:12
Washington. So to win the big 10, the line
21:17
on them actually moved down to 2200 from 6000.
21:22
So that's pretty cool. I think, and this one is going
21:25
to come down to the both teams O lines.
21:29
We need a big game for you know, Damon Williams there number two.
21:33
I hope he does well because all counts is that he's a really
21:36
good kid. There is a travel, Washington is
21:40
a tough team to play. They do.
21:43
They do have some kind of win streak going at home.
21:45
They haven't lost at home in probably a year and a half,
21:47
maybe two years. I think for a lot of the
21:51
country, this will be the first time watching Washington this
21:54
year because, you know, that's especially in this part of the
21:57
country. But the East Coast and
21:58
everything, a lot of people are hit in the hay after, you know,
22:02
three or four other college football games except for people
22:04
like us. But.
22:07
Well, at that time I'm still hitting the hay as well, but.
22:10
I'm still up. I did not even see kick off of
22:13
your Michigan State USC game last week that started at 11:00,
22:16
by the way. Yeah, some of us hit the hay way
22:18
before that. So I saw, I was, I saw a kick
22:22
off and I was in and out of consciousness.
22:23
So the game was on. I was, you know, middle of the
22:26
first quarter. Then next thing I know it's half
22:28
time. Then next thing I know it's, you
22:30
know, started the 4th and I watched the rest of the game
22:32
from there. But yeah, I think also with with
22:38
Ohio State and the Texas games, the same thing with FSU and the
22:42
Alabama games, they seem like it was forever ago.
22:45
It does. You know, it's like, you know,
22:47
FSU had two cupcakes and a buy. I think Ohio State had a couple
22:50
cupcakes in there. It's like who knows what they're
22:54
going to be doing, but they do have the new quarterback.
22:57
So I do not sure about the point spread.
23:01
I do like the over. So it hasn't moved all week.
23:05
It's been stuck at 52 1/2. I think the Mon Williams is
23:09
going to have this offense ready to go.
23:11
I think they're going to put up a lot of points open.
23:15
Washington pulls this one out. It'd be great.
23:17
And you know, the country be introduced.
23:20
I'm sure you are too. Pete, open this up.
23:24
Washington pulls this out too, but I'm expecting either way,
23:28
something like a 41 to 38, you know, 3836 final score, the last
23:34
team to have the ball probably to win here.
23:36
Darren, the floor is yours. I, I kind of lean Ohio State
23:43
here. I mean, I, I just don't know in
23:45
the Washington secondary since anybody worth a damn went to
23:47
North Carolina to die over there in, in a Chapel.
23:51
Bill, I don't know who's stopping Jeremiah Smith in this
23:54
game. This could be a, a A9 catch 220
23:58
yard 3 touchdown day for him. But to that point, that means
24:02
Damond Williams is gonna have to do something similar.
24:05
So where where you hit Texas A&M and Notre Dame over at like
24:08
halftime last year, you could be pretty close to that to your 52
24:12
1/2 by halftime this year. I, I don't know if Damond will
24:17
be able to, to keep up offensively here.
24:21
I still like what Ohio State's got on the field there.
24:24
If I, if I had to pick a side, I'd take Ohio State, but 52 1/2
24:28
does seem kind of low here for, for this.
24:31
So yeah, I, I, I'm on board with that pick, definitely.
24:34
Yeah, agree 100%. I love, love that bet.
24:37
Just a little behind the curtain.
24:38
I start every week by looking at every game.
24:40
Then I narrow it down to five, and then I bet on three.
24:43
This was #4 right, So I was. I'm heavily leaning on the over
24:47
here. I think it is the Buckeyes can
24:49
score any which way they want to and they're going to right.
24:52
So they're going to score a lot That's not in question.
24:55
So if they're score 3840, whatever they're going to score.
24:58
Washington needs to make up the difference.
24:59
I expect them to score a bunch too.
25:02
So I fully expect a high scoring game here, a whole lot of snaps,
25:07
all how to all movement. I mean, I think, yeah, this this
25:10
is going to be a easily, I think into the 60s without question
25:14
for this game. So I I love this over.
25:16
I would have played it but I purposely limit myself to three
25:19
or else this would have been #4 So love to bet on board.
25:23
What was the the over line on A&M Notre Dame game?
25:28
Wasn't that 52 1/2 as well? Or was it 54?
25:31
Hold on. Few weeks ago I know it's it's
25:35
very similar game I'm. Under this, yeah.
25:37
I would love for this to hit by halftime.
25:39
Those are the best kind and you have to worry about it.
25:41
You can sit back and enjoy the game.
25:42
You don't have to sweat anything.
25:44
They'll be at least 40 by halftime and you can just cruise
25:47
in the rest. You'll be fine.
25:48
Yeah. All right, Dan, we got your
25:52
third play of the week. Speaking of backing another team
25:55
and no defense, I am on Air Force here and and I get it,
26:00
they gave up 49 to Boise last week.
26:02
They gave up 49 to Ustah State the week before that.
26:04
But to be fair, both those teams are actually not terrible.
26:09
So if you haven't followed Air Force, and who would blame you
26:11
if you hadn't, they made a quarterback switch a couple
26:14
weeks ago. The gentleman by the name of
26:16
Liam, and I'm probably pronouncing his last name wrong.
26:19
Zarka SZ Yeah, whatever, but I'm going to go with.
26:22
Sorry I didn't get the. Numbers, you know, I mean, it's
26:26
gotta be Zarka. I mean, how the heck else can
26:28
you pronounce that name? But last week against Boise,
26:31
dude had 246 passing yards, 110 yards rushing, and actually
26:34
helped the Air Force put up like, what, 3739 points against
26:37
Boise here? So while this team defensively
26:41
so far has struggled, I'm gonna chalk some of that up to to the
26:44
two good teams that they've actually played so far.
26:47
And despite the 246 yards passing, they only threw the
26:50
ball 20 times. They still ran at 55.
26:53
This is still the Air Force that we all know and love.
26:56
Why this is a problem for Hawaii, multiple reasons.
26:59
And Pete, I, I know you're on Hawaii.
27:01
This is not a, a slight tier over 5 1/2 bet.
27:04
There's just some things here about Hawaii that, that, that
27:06
that don't like lead me to believe that they're going to be
27:11
close here. First of all, they're already
27:13
three and two. That means they've played five
27:15
games already. Barely anybody else has played
27:18
more than four. This team will get a buy after
27:21
this, but they have got to be somewhat beat up.
27:23
This is going to be their 6th game in six weeks.
27:26
Of those five games form of it been at home.
27:28
The other time they went on the road they played at Arizona,
27:31
also a good team, but lost 40 to 6.
27:34
They just do not have the athletes to keep up with some of
27:37
these schools. Again we talked about travel.
27:43
This is a 4:00 Eastern game, which makes this a 2:00 mountain
27:47
time game for Air Force, which makes this a 10:00 game.
27:52
Hawaii time. Now I've never lived in Hawaii,
27:54
but I'm pretty sure if I did, the last thing I would want to
27:57
be doing at 10 AM is getting ready to play football.
28:01
So again, there's that travel. And if you wonder why you're
28:03
always talking about travel stat time since all this realignment
28:08
gave some crazy at oh damn, I said it again, some crazy travel
28:11
scenarios for some of these teams since last year up to this
28:14
week, upcoming teams that have travelled more than three hours
28:18
out of their out of their norm 19 and 35 against the spread.
28:23
For those of you who didn't go to the crappy high school that
28:26
the three of us went to, that's only 35%, which means these home
28:30
teams are covering almost 2/3 of the time.
28:33
So at with 54 games as a sample, that's not like these teams are
28:37
two and seven. I mean, there's some significant
28:39
results here to that. Also one of Hawaii's biggest
28:43
rivals, Fresno State, I don't know if anybody watched last
28:47
week's game and again, wouldn't blame you if you did because
28:49
Hawaii was the home team. They lost 23 to 21 to Fresno.
28:53
Hawaii got the got a touchdown with 10 seconds to go, screwed
28:57
up the two point conversion. So now you've got the travel,
29:01
you've got a quarterback, Alhado, who's not 100%.
29:04
Ever since he got hurt in that Stanford game, he has just not
29:06
looked like himself. So again, the travel, the beat
29:10
up quarterback, the the emotional let down after that
29:15
loss that we talked about last week.
29:18
West Virginia beating Pittsburgh two weeks ago in their backyard
29:22
brawl, you know, down 10 with 5 minutes ago tying it up, win it
29:25
overtime. They went to Kansas and got
29:27
destroyed. So I believe there is something
29:29
to that as well. So and also Hawaii in five
29:32
games, they don't even have 500 yards rushing the ball yet.
29:35
Anybody want to guess how many rushing touchdowns they have
29:37
this year? I'll give you a hint.
29:39
The three of us have as many as Hawaii does.
29:41
That's correct. They have yet to get a rushing
29:44
touchdown in five games, which almost seems like like how does
29:49
that even happen? That can change against Air
29:52
Force and their crappy defense, but I just think there's enough
29:55
here. And again, 6 1/2 it's not 7.
29:58
I I wouldn't, I might not want to play the seven it just in
30:01
case of a, a freak backdoor push here.
30:04
But there is a lot going against Hawaii here.
30:08
I'm not saying Air Force's defense is going to get right
30:10
here, but offensively Air Force looks really, really good.
30:14
And I don't think Hawaii's not the athletes to keep up here.
30:17
So this was almost a 2 unit play for me.
30:20
But yeah, when you give up 98 points in your last two games, I
30:24
just can't get there for that. But give me Air Force here, man.
30:28
I think Hawaii's going to have a tough go of it this weekend.
30:31
Yeah, I agree. Could not, could not agree more,
30:33
actually. And and yeah, I love me some
30:35
Hawaii, but at home, right when I made the argument for the
30:38
schedule at home, they're dangerous because of the travel
30:42
on the road. Forget it.
30:43
I mean, they're going to get pummeled.
30:45
I I gave them no chance in this game, to be honest with you.
30:48
Over under 53 1/2. I thought about it.
30:50
I figure I don't know, Hawaii might, you know, wheel out.
30:54
I don't know, 1417, I wouldn't expect much more.
30:58
So that kind of leans under for me here because, yeah, Air Force
31:01
is going to score, but they run the ball, it's going to clock.
31:03
So I think they're easily and handily going to beat Hawaii.
31:07
But I do think that under is a little bit enticing.
31:09
I'm not playing it, but I did toil with it a little bit.
31:12
But yeah, I just, I just decided to to punt on that.
31:16
OK. And our last pick of the week,
31:20
Peter. So Alabama, Georgia,
31:25
interesting, interesting, interesting.
31:27
So over under 53 1/2, you know, I am leaning heavily into the
31:35
fact that when these big SEC teams play each other,
31:39
especially teams that are constructed like Georgia is and
31:42
like Bama is, you know, they, you know, they're obviously NFL
31:45
caliber depth across the board. That's not surprising, but these
31:50
coaches on these teams tend to be a little conservative in
31:53
tight games. I expect them to run the ball #
31:55
the ball, try to beat each other up, which they're going to do,
31:58
which means if you're doing that, and I expect kind of that
32:02
suppressing the number of stat snaps in the game.
32:05
Also, with both of these teams, there's been a high chance of,
32:07
you know, there's been a quite a few stalled drives in the red
32:10
zone leading to field goals and such and not touchdowns.
32:13
It's just a lot in this game leans to me toward and under
32:18
like I would not be surprised of like a 2421 kind of game here,
32:22
which obviously is way under right, that number.
32:26
So I don't think they're going to break 50.
32:28
So I really do like this number quite a bit.
32:31
I feel very confident. This is my highest rated one
32:33
this week, actually, so feel pretty good about this one.
32:36
I think it'll be a slugfest. It'll be interesting, fun to
32:38
watch, sure, but I don't think it's going to be a scoring fest.
32:41
So anyway, that's my thoughts. Is is that where college game
32:44
day is where where are they this week?
32:47
I didn't look, but I would assume so.
32:50
Yeah, I I'd love for them to be at the Ohio State Washington
32:53
game or maybe the Penn State. Penn State, Oregon might be
33:01
there. So does this game.
33:02
If Bam will win, does that get get Caitlin Dubois off the hot
33:05
seat? You think official?
33:08
It'll help. I mean, I mean, if they show
33:10
well and they play well. I yeah, I.
33:11
Well, if they win, I don't know, but they they win.
33:14
Yeah, I don't know about totally off the hot seat, but certainly
33:16
I think that the the, the he'll get turned down a little bit.
33:19
So that would not be surprising. I think if they win, he can
33:22
tell. He can tell everyone to shut the
33:23
F up. I think if he if they're going
33:26
to. State College this week.
33:28
Is that correct? Yeah, State.
33:29
College, Penn State, no surprise.
33:32
Yeah, the white out and all that.
33:33
So, yeah, that'll be that'll be good.
33:36
Any thoughts with this one Darren?
33:38
I I kind of like Bana here. I don't really know why I can't
33:42
put my finger on it, but something telling me Bama and a
33:46
little money line Sprinkle might not be a bad player.
33:50
I think it's around 3 or 3 1/2. You can get 3 1/2, maybe take
33:53
the points. But something about Kirby Smart,
33:56
he's got all kinds of problems with Alabama.
33:58
And I get that was mostly with Nick Saban on the other
34:03
sideline, but he just seems to have some kind of problem deal
34:05
with Alabama. And I I kind of think I'm a
34:08
little more pro Ty Simpson than I am Gunner Stockton.
34:12
I just don't think that the Georgia defense is is what we're
34:16
used to seeing. So I do think this will still be
34:20
like a, you know, 2010 SEC ugly 2117 kind of thing.
34:27
But we wouldn't surprise you one bit if Alabama's the one with 21
34:31
and winning this one outright. Me either.
34:33
I think that makes a lot of sense.
34:34
I would not be surprised either going into Georgia money line.
34:37
I like that. That's not bad.
34:42
All right, guys, let's just jump right into our RPO segment.
34:46
Hey, before we get started, I didn't put it on there because
34:49
there are a lot of big names on there, but tonight, East
34:51
Carolina Army for anybody who's going to watch in a little bit
34:54
that just needs some action. Anybody have a thought because I
34:57
do not. I I looked at it, I was leaning
35:01
under. I did too because I was going to
35:03
send one of you guys money if I could find something enjoyable
35:06
like I I got nothing. I may, I may play it for both of
35:08
us because I saw that I was like, yeah, 52 1/2 seems like a
35:11
high, a big number for this game.
35:13
It feels like it's going to be, obviously it's just going to be,
35:14
I think a grind of a game. I would not be surprised if it's
35:17
pretty well under that number. So that's another one that I
35:19
think kind of leans in. All right, RPO segment, first
35:24
game, Florida State -7 at Virginia tomorrow night.
35:30
God, I hate this game. Hard pass.
35:31
I will be speaking heavily and drunk texting you guys I'm sure
35:36
by having. Come on, you're, you're, you're
35:38
already jinxing your own team here.
35:40
That's not good. I, I, I so forget the
35:42
overrunner. It's 59 1/2.
35:44
That's a high number. I mean, I'm actually leaning
35:45
over that. I think, I think your team is
35:47
going to, is going to play very well.
35:49
I, I, I, if I was an FSU fan, I'd feel pretty good about about
35:52
tomorrow night, but that's just me.
35:54
We'll see how it plays out. Yeah, I mean, I want to take
35:57
Virginia for no other reason, just to aggravate the living
35:59
hell out of you, but I I. Think.
36:01
I mean, I, I think Florida State should cover this here.
36:04
I love Chandler Morrison, what he's brought the Virginia
36:06
offense. I still not a fan of that
36:08
defense though. I I think Florida State can
36:10
cover this all. Right, Notre Dame -4 1/2 at
36:13
Arkansas. I would run and lay the points
36:17
at Notre Dame. I don't know what you guys are
36:18
thinking. They better win this game and
36:20
they better cover that number. They have to.
36:22
I mean, they have. I mean, we need to see
36:24
something. They have to.
36:27
Darren, no pay. No.
36:30
You're matching my thoughts on a Florida State game.
36:32
Yeah, that's fair. That's a fair statement.
36:34
All I know is I I got a feeling like Marcus Freeman is in the
36:37
press saying he backs Chris Trash.
36:39
I know his last name's Ash, but Notre Dame Twitter Chris Trash
36:44
and he's saying, yeah, it's this.
36:45
It's this. It's not him.
36:47
I got a feeling Marcus Freeman is all over that defensive game
36:50
plan this week. Now, Arkansas had that crushing
36:54
loss against Memphis last week. Speaking of a hot seat, guys,
36:57
Sam Pitman might be on one if he doesn't have a good showing
37:01
here. The 4 1/2 scares me.
37:03
Laying points with Notre Dame's current defensive prowess also
37:08
scares me. But like Pete said, man, if
37:11
they're going to put it together, it it better be now.
37:15
It has to happen. I think they might.
37:18
Honestly, I think they're. Going to look really good.
37:20
That's just my prediction here. I think they're going to look
37:22
great, but that's. Me, USC -6 1/2 Illinois.
37:26
This was my fourth game out. I would run to the tape the
37:30
window. I take Illinois to points, home
37:33
team travel. I think this is one of those
37:37
trap games right now. Everyone's going to look at last
37:39
week's game. I think they're going to get off
37:41
the mat. I'd like Illinois.
37:43
They belong on the mat. They're overrated.
37:45
I'm just I don't know what his total is.
37:48
I'd go over here because USC can't play defense either.
37:53
But yeah, I would pick USC to cover.
37:55
I would go over, yeah, whatever you can do, Player props.
37:59
Bet on my VIA to go over whatever the hell he's got.
38:03
Can't do that in New York. I think Illinois is a fraud.
38:07
Indiana I believe exposed them pretty hardcore last week.
38:12
Yeah, I I don't care the US CS traveling to Illinois bet the
38:16
over first lay USC little half unit or whatever.
38:20
But yeah, mount on Illinois, Yeah.
38:23
I agree, I think Indiana exposed them for sure.
38:25
I mean India, Indiana had their way with them over 60 1/2 in
38:29
this game. Pretty high over.
38:30
But I think it's going over. I agree.
38:33
Absolutely I'm. Definitely going over on that.
38:35
USC might score 50 themselves. Yeah.
38:37
I mean, Illinois is not going to be like, hey, This Is Us.
38:39
They're going to put out some kind of offense because USC will
38:42
let them because their defense is terrible.
38:44
But yeah, this could be a Tim special where it's like 2824 at
38:48
halftime and you're just waiting for, you know, 10 more points in
38:52
the third quarter to go to bed or go have dinner or whatever.
38:55
But yeah. Indiana -7 1/2 at Iowa.
39:00
With the new high octane offense we saw last week, I think I
39:05
would still take Indiana if I was going to bet this one.
39:08
I didn't look at this one, but heavy lean.
39:11
I'm not quite running up to the window yet, so right now it's a
39:14
pass, but I could see myself being talking to Betting Indiana
39:17
here. I mean, up until this past week,
39:22
I would have been all overly under on this.
39:24
It's 47 1/2 and Iowa at home. That defense, I would expect
39:29
them to control Indiana and they showed they can score a little
39:33
bit, but I would expect a low score.
39:35
I would have expected a low scoring game and Iowa winning.
39:39
Now I don't know what the hell they expect.
39:41
I don't know that. Game last week.
39:42
No idea what Iowa did last week. No idea.
39:45
I'm perplexed by both of these teams.
39:47
So I got nothing. Aaron.
39:50
I would have. I'd be running right behind Pete
39:53
away from the window here. Yeah, Iowa's offense was
39:57
courtesy of a crappy Rutgers defense, so put in however much
40:01
stock into that performance you want.
40:03
The seven and a half obviously scares me.
40:08
You know, I got a nice plus money bid on Indiana over 8 1/2
40:11
wins. So the Illinois thing was nice,
40:14
but it wouldn't surprise if they gave it back right here and Iowa
40:16
somehow pulled off this upset. I would not touch this game with
40:21
with your guys money. All right, Auburn plus 6 1/2,
40:25
they're at Texas A&M, another big game for me, but they all my
40:29
Texas A&M bets hoping for a big game from Marcel Reed.
40:34
This is almost an automatic play, but I didn't bother to do
40:36
it. But I would I would go to the
40:38
window. Texas A&M give the six 6 1/2.
40:41
I think they beat Auburn at home.
40:43
I agree that's likely to happen. I'll take that six and a half.
40:50
I mean, I think Texas A&M defensively, what what have they
40:53
done this year? Yeah, you know, nothing.
40:57
I mean, Auburn got sacked 10 times last week and still took a
41:03
took a safety with like a minute to go to not cover the the six
41:07
points against Oklahoma. If this gets to seven, I would
41:11
totally fire on Auburn here. But I'm not against taking the 6
41:16
1/2 or dare I say, money line sprinkle #2.
41:20
Oh. Yes.
41:22
All right, game of the week, Oregon plus 3 1/2 at Penn State.
41:30
This could be like a James Franklin fade and just run
41:32
through the window and bed. Oregon.
41:33
But that's my initial thought. But Penn, say, does look pretty
41:41
good this year. I got to say, he may have enough
41:43
talent there. Not even he can mess it up.
41:45
So yeah, yeah. I mean, with all the bad
41:49
coaching, we could see a crystal ball.
41:51
Franklin, you imagine be fantastic.
41:57
Yeah. I don't think, Anna, what you
41:58
guys think? Penn State at home, night, white
42:01
out. Tough, tough environment to play
42:03
in. I don't care how good you are.
42:05
That's a tough place to play against a really good team.
42:08
Yeah. I mean, I, I Penn State should
42:11
win this game. I didn't touch this thing.
42:14
It's going to be a great game to watch, but Penn State should win
42:17
this game. But I, I don't.
42:19
It could. It's going to be a great game, I
42:20
think. But yeah, I don't know.
42:22
They're. Everybody on Penn State that had
42:26
the option to leave came back this year and and this game is
42:29
one of the reasons why they did. Penn State's got to get it done
42:33
here. I don't care about Franklin's
42:35
crappy record against ranked teams.
42:38
This this is it if they do not win this game.
42:43
I mean, we said it a million times.
42:45
If not now, when? This this is it, man.
42:47
They got it. And like Pete said, white out
42:50
prime time, you know Dante. More about the most.
42:53
Experienced quarterback in the world.
42:55
I mean, you've got the roster to just pummel him double digit
42:59
these guys. I mean, you got two of the best
43:01
running backs in the country. Just run them.
43:04
Don't let Drew Allard do anything.
43:06
Just yeah, just make sure he turns around the right way and
43:08
hands it off to the right, guys. Which?
43:11
Has got to be Penn State. So if they.
43:13
Lose if we got down to three. Dude, if this gets down to
43:18
three, I'm going to bet Penn State.
43:22
Nice. Yeah, I like it.
43:24
Well, if they lose we'll have to get Mark on speed dog with
43:26
coach's hot seat and see if his. What time is that game?
43:29
Is that 7? 30 Yeah, it's.
43:32
Usually 7:30 I want to say. All right, I work Saturday if I
43:36
hit any, because all my games will be done by 7.
43:38
So if I'm two and one or better, yeah, like that's going to
43:42
happen. Yeah.
43:43
I'm going to add a comment to the video whether or not I fired
43:46
on Penn State, if it. So if I'm two and one, the
43:49
spread goes to three. I'm on Penn.
43:51
State. I'll make the bet for you.
43:53
I'm hitting two OK. All right, we're going to wrap
43:56
this up. My picks for this week, just
43:59
some review, we got Tennessee -7 1/2 over Mississippi State, I
44:03
have the over 52 1/2 for Washington and Ohio State, and
44:07
I've got Northwestern the year long fate -6 1/2 over UCLA.
44:13
Darren, what you've got? Georgia Tech -13 1/2 over Wake
44:16
Forest, BC, laying 6 1/2 over Cal and Air Force also laying 6
44:21
1/2 over Hawaii. There, Peter.
44:26
Yeah, Bama, Georgia, expect a punch in the mouth fest here
44:29
under 53 1/2, not 53.3 Houston, Oregon State under 47 1/2 and
44:36
LSU, Ole Miss, they're gonna score 150 points, so we're just
44:40
gonna go over 54 and a. Half.
44:43
All right, well, that's gonna wrap up this week for Week 5.
44:47
Thank you all for listening. Don't forget to like and
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44:51
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44:56
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44:59
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45:04
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45:06
Thank you all for listening and we'll catch you next week.