Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / No clear winner emerges from Israel's election

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No clear winner emerges from Israel's election · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: Votes are still being counted after Israel's general election. The
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  Speaker 1: campaign was framed as a choice between continuity and change,
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  Speaker 1: but neither side received a clear mandate to govern. Prime
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  Speaker 1: Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc is projected to win the
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  Speaker 1: most seats, but not enough for a majority in the
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  Speaker 1: 120-seat parliament. The opposition bloc of challenger Gadi Eisenkot would
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  Speaker 1: have to rely on an alliance with Arab parties to
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  Speaker 1: form a government.
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  Speaker 2: Israel has voted, but the election does not appear to
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  Speaker 2: have delivered a clear winner. The race was largely seen
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  Speaker 2: as a contest between Benjamin Netanyahu, head of the right-wing
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  Speaker 2: Likud party, allied with far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, and
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  Speaker 2: former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, who heads the opposition bloc
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  Speaker 2: and campaigned on a promise of political change. But partial
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  Speaker 2: results showed that neither bloc has secured a clear path
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  Speaker 2: to power. Eisenkant would need the support of Arab parties
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  Speaker 2: to form a government, a prospect several opposition parties have
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  Speaker 2: so far rejected. Netanyahu, meanwhile, appears to have lost his
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  Speaker 2: majority government, though his Likud party remains the largest in parliament.
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  Speaker 2: He's calling for the formation of a strong right-wing government
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  Speaker 2: without the participation of Arab parties.
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  Speaker 3: Assume.
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  Speaker 4: It is forbidden, simply forbidden, to endanger Israel and establish
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  Speaker 4: a government reliant on anti-Zionist Arab parties. Parties that oppose
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  Speaker 4: our very existence, that view Hamas as a charity organisation,
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  Speaker 4: that call our soldiers war criminals.
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  Speaker 2: The inconclusive results mean it could take weeks of coalition
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  Speaker 2: bargaining or even another election before Israel knows who will govern.
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  Speaker 2: The vote has also highlighted deep divisions among Israelis.
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  Speaker 5: I basically thought that the Netanyahu bloc would be the best,
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  Speaker 5: and it looks like there'll be at least a temporary
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  Speaker 5: government with them, so I'm relatively happy. I would prefer
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  Speaker 5: there would be a unity government, and hopefully that'll still happen.
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  Speaker 6: I hope that a government can be formed. A government
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  Speaker 6: that I would feel proud of. I believe we need
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  Speaker 6: a change here in Israel. I'm a citizen, obviously. And
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  Speaker 6: I'm disappointed by the results.
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  Speaker 2: One of the biggest stories of this election was the
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  Speaker 2: strong performance of Arab parties, driven by record participation among
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  Speaker 2: Arab-Israeli voters. Exit polls suggest they could win one of
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  Speaker 2: their largest representations in Israel's parliament in years. For many
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  Speaker 2: Arab-Israeli voters, the goal was not just to push back
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  Speaker 2: against Israel's far-right parties, but to address issues impacting their communities,
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  Speaker 2: such as crime, discrimination and unemployment.
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  Speaker 5: God willing, when we're 17, 18 or 20 members in parliament,
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  Speaker 5: we'll be able to make or influence laws that are
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  Speaker 5: good for Arab society.
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  Speaker 2: Final results are expected in the coming days. Israel's president
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  Speaker 2: will then ask the politician judged most likely to build
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  Speaker 2: a parliamentary majority to try to form a government. Netanyahu
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  Speaker 2: will remain caretaker prime minister until that process is complete.
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  Speaker 1: DW correspondent Felix Tamsu joins us now from Jerusalem. Felix,
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  Speaker 1: what's the latest on the vote count?
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  Speaker 7: Well, we are talking about more than 90% of the
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  Speaker 7: polling station being counted already. That makes around 85% of.
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  Speaker 8: The total votes.
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  Speaker 7: And the current situation, as said in the report, Benjamin
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  Speaker 7: Netanyahu's Likud party is the biggest party, but it fails
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  Speaker 7: the seats to have a majority in parliament, in the Knesset,
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  Speaker 7: which means it cannot form a government on the basis
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  Speaker 7: of the former party. government with its far-right and ultra-Orthodox members. However,
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  Speaker 7: Gadi Eisenkot, the main competitor to Benjamin Netanyahu, also has
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  Speaker 7: the issue of not being able to form a government
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  Speaker 7: without the seats of Israel's two Arab parties, the way
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  Speaker 7: it seems right now. And it's going to be interesting
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  Speaker 7: to see where this goes and what does Israel's president
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  Speaker 7: do with this current situation.
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  Speaker 1: Interesting indeed. Have we heard anything from the Netanyahu or
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  Speaker 1: Eisencad camps?
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  Speaker 7: Basically, the Netanyahu camp keeps on repeating the same message
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  Speaker 7: that only a right-wing government, only a right-wing coalition would
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  Speaker 7: be legitimate, would be the right thing to do. And
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  Speaker 7: at the same time, they've been warning against any cooperation,
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  Speaker 7: any coalition with Israel's two Arab parties. At the same time, Eisenkot,
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  Speaker 7: who himself promised not to join a coalition with the
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  Speaker 7: Arab parties, warned that Netanyahu should not use Israel's security
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  Speaker 7: for political purposes, aiming at a potential escalation either with
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  Speaker 7: Iran or Gaza or indeed the West Bank. When it
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  Speaker 7: comes to the negotiations on a future coalition, things have
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  Speaker 7: been silent in the previous few hours, but that is
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  Speaker 7: bound to change within the next days.
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  Speaker 1: Which side then has the edge when it comes to
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  Speaker 1: forming a governing coalition?
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  Speaker 7: Given the fact that Netanyahu's bloc includes far-right members, the
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  Speaker 7: current situation is that the opposition has more chances of
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  Speaker 7: creating this coalition with the Arab parties. At the same time,
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  Speaker 7: this would mean several opposition parties would have to basically
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  Speaker 7: track back on their election promise not to join a
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  Speaker 7: coalition with the Arab parties. At the same time, the
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  Speaker 7: other option would be creating a unity coalition with Benjamin Netanyahu,
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  Speaker 7: which is also against their election promise. So something has
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  Speaker 7: to give and the next few days will be crucial
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  Speaker 7: in that process.
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  Speaker 1: Are the Israeli Arab parties then the real winners here?
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  Speaker 1: Because they're in a very powerful position right.
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  Speaker 8: Now, aren't they?
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  Speaker 7: Yeah, absolutely. They're basically the kingmakers. Both Arab parties, they've
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  Speaker 7: received enormous support. Ram, the religious Muslim party, received seven
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  Speaker 7: parliament seats, an all-time record. The Joint List also had
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  Speaker 7: a very, very strong result with 12 seats. Both parties
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  Speaker 7: have already signaled they're willing to cooperate with Israel's opposition
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  Speaker 7: to oust Benjamin Netanyahu's government. But it remains to be
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  Speaker 7: seen whether this hand that the Arab parties are reaching
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  Speaker 7: out to the opposition parties, to the Zionist opposition parties, rather,
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  Speaker 7: whether it will be reacted to by indeed joining hands
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  Speaker 7: or not. This is something that is bound to be
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  Speaker 7: the topic of the political debate here in Israel in
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  Speaker 7: the coming weeks, for sure.
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  Speaker 1: Helik Samzut in Jerusalem. Thanks so much for that update.
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  Speaker 8: So what does this result tell us about the mood
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  Speaker 8: in Israeli society at the moment? A short while ago,
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  Speaker 8: I put that question to Gil Musiano. He's the CEO
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  Speaker 8: of MidVim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policy.
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  Speaker 3: First of all, what we are experiencing right now is
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  Speaker 3: basically a deadlock. the hopes of the camp of change,
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  Speaker 3: the opposition today, to actually be able to change the
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  Speaker 3: tables on Netanyahu according to previous polls has somewhat been refuted.
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  Speaker 3: And currently we have Netanyahu leading by a small margin.
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  Speaker 3: But the interesting thing is that either one of the sides,
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  Speaker 3: not the current government or the opposition, is able to
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  Speaker 3: compile the necessary 61 mandates So we are basically deadlocked
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  Speaker 3: and I have to say we are also waiting for
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  Speaker 3: the final results and this year it's going to take
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  Speaker 3: a little bit because we have a large number of
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  Speaker 3: soldiers and reservists that are voting. So there's these 15
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  Speaker 3: mandates that might change the picture. The mood at the
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  Speaker 3: moment is the feeling that we are moving maybe to
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  Speaker 3: a second round, that nothing is conclusive at the moment.
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  Speaker 3: And I would say the one major game changer, the
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  Speaker 3: one major change, if.
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  Speaker 9: We compare it to previous election, and mind you, this
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  Speaker 9: is probably the highest rate, one of the highest rates
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  Speaker 9: or highest percentage of voters that turn out, basically, of
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  Speaker 9: almost 80 percent, is the Arab-Israeli turnout, the turnout among Arab-Israelis.
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  Speaker 8: I was just about to say, the Arab-led parties appear
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  Speaker 8: to be the kingmakers now. Has Israel's political mainstream become
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  Speaker 8: more open to Arab participation in government?
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  Speaker 3: I would differentiate between two parties, between the so-called Iran party,
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  Speaker 3: headed by Mansour Abbas, together with Sigalovich, which is not
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  Speaker 3: so much about identity, it's more about dealing with the
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  Speaker 3: issue of crime in the armed sector. And this one,
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  Speaker 3: I would say, could be, in some scenarios, acceptable by
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  Speaker 3: a center-right coalition.
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  Speaker 9: I would say that in many ways they kind.
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  Speaker 3: Of refuse to sit with that specific party, but it
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  Speaker 3: is an election promise that could be somewhat altered. But
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  Speaker 3: on the other hand, the largest party is the Joint List.
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  Speaker 3: And when we speak about the Joint List, if to
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  Speaker 3: be completely honest, you see some major disagreement on core
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  Speaker 3: political issues, ideological issues even, about the State of Israel,
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  Speaker 3: about Zionism, about a number of different things. And I'll
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  Speaker 3: say that if you're asking me if they can sit
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  Speaker 3: together in order to block Netanyahu, if they can block
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  Speaker 3: Netanyahu together, that's not science fiction. But to govern together,
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  Speaker 3: that would be one hell of.
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  Speaker 7: A tall order.
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  Speaker 3: So that's the deadlock that we're currently facing.
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  Speaker 8: Now, regarding the Arab parties, Gadi Eisenkot has left the
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  Speaker 8: door open for cooperation under certain conditions. What political obstacles
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  Speaker 8: stand in the way of such an agreement?
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  Speaker 3: Well, first of all, I would say one of the
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  Speaker 3: major political obstacles is Gadi Eisenkot's own camp. Within it,
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  Speaker 3: you find Yvette Lieberman, for example, and his party, who has,
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  Speaker 3: I would say, ambitions in the future to become a
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  Speaker 3: major right-wing leader. And the topic of not sitting together
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  Speaker 3: with our parties is a crucial aspect for him. I
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  Speaker 3: think that these conditions were presented in an earlier phase,
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  Speaker 3: maybe to prepare the ground for such a... such a cooperation,
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  Speaker 3: but there's a question over the legitimacy of a future
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  Speaker 3: government that will be based so much on our votes
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  Speaker 3: when it comes to right-wing voters. I say that this
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  Speaker 3: is an unfortunate decision by the opposition in Israel not
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  Speaker 3: to find a way and cooperate with our parties in
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  Speaker 3: an earlier phase, therefore presenting a much broader or creating
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  Speaker 3: a much more solid momentum. And now they're facing the
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  Speaker 3: crucial juncture, either to go to a second round or
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  Speaker 3: to find a way to cooperate with the Arab camps.
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  Speaker 8: Now, if we look beyond the coalition arithmetic, what are
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  Speaker 8: the biggest policy differences between a Netanyahu-led government on the
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  Speaker 8: one hand and an Eisenhower-led government on the other when
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  Speaker 8: it comes to questions like Gaza relations with the Palestinians
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  Speaker 8: and ties with international allies?
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  Speaker 3: Well, despite the fact that the two, both Eisenkot and Netanyahu,
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  Speaker 3: officially reject the two-state solution, already committed, of course, in
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  Speaker 3: the case of Netanyahu is openly fighting against it. Eisenkot
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  Speaker 3: refuted or said that he's not going to promote the
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  Speaker 3: Palestinian state. But the difference in practice is huge. When
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  Speaker 3: it comes to Netanyahu, with his coalition with the Bank
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  Speaker 3: of Israel and Smotrich, this is mostly about continuing the
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  Speaker 3: struggle or the campaign to raise any remains, any trace
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  Speaker 3: of the Oslo process, and de facto annexing the West
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  Speaker 3: Bank when it comes to Gaza, stopping any attempt to
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  Speaker 3: progress with reconstruction of Gaza. When it comes to Eisenhower,
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  Speaker 3: and not just on the Palestinian issue, it's mostly about
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  Speaker 3: avoiding friction.
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  Speaker 9: So if we are talking about.
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  Speaker 3: Building of settlements, even evacuating illegal outposts, He already showed
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  Speaker 3: some willingness to engage with these topics, to begin with
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  Speaker 3: the reconstruction of Gaza. This government, the next Israeli government,
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  Speaker 3: is going to hit the ground running. They are already
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  Speaker 3: going to be facing decision-making junctures regarding Mladenov's plan for Gaza,
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  Speaker 3: regarding the peace agreement, or security agreement with Syria, redwell
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  Speaker 3: from Lebanon. On these issues, you can see a difference,
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  Speaker 3: a real difference between an Eisenkot-led government that at minimum
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  Speaker 3: would enable those changes to happen, even reluctantly, and between
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  Speaker 3: a Netanyahu smart rich bank government that would do everything
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  Speaker 3: to reject this political initiative.
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  Speaker 8: Gilma Sian is there. CEO of Amit Vim, the Israeli
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  Speaker 8: Institute for Regional Foreign Policies. Thank you very much for
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  Speaker 8: sharing your insights with us.
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  Speaker 9: Thank you very much.