Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 9/25/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Weather, Wheat, and War

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 9/25/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Weather, Wheat, and War · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, live from Gill, Colorado.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Today on this fine Friday morning, we're going to talk about a lot of things.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: Argentinian wheat, beef slaughter, and there's a chance we could see a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that and more here in a bit.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle, excuse me, were down$1.85 at$2.19 up and three ticks.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle were at$3.31 and three quarters, down about a buck and a half.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs were down about 68 cents at 79.20.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: As I quote the grain markets here live, like to shout out our sponsor, plus 500.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: We use plus 500 T4 trading software to quote the markets every single day.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: And as I look here, November soybeans have come back down hard overnight.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: All of the grains have.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: They're at 1301 and a quarter.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: December corn is at 516 and a half.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: And wheat made a big correction as well.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: The December contract, Chicago is at 689.5.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: On the weather side of things, the hard red wheat belts rain outlooks flipped sharply wetter overnight.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Kansas is now pegged for three to four inches by Wednesday, and it was over three to five over the next seven days.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: Versus almost, you know, just slight showers that we were going to see just a few days ago in that stretch, which were going to be great for that hard red wheat belt.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: But man, this is going to be excellent for them.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Warmth has spread east with minimums running 10 to 14 degrees above normal across the plains.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: It's been kind of cold and breezy and a bit damp here in Colorado.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: On the grain market side of things, there's been a split signal in this week's Buenos Aires grain exchange data.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: And we always like to, you know, bring up outside countries grains because it's all you know the same product and the international price drives what's happening at the exchanges.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: And the Buenos Aires grain exchange data, the Argentine weight wheat forecast was raised 23.4 million metric tons, the second largest crop on record, even as soil moisture deteriorated sharply, with the regular to dry share jumping from near zero in late August to 33% in the north in the northeast and 20 to 23% in southern Cordoba and the Northern Core.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: See that there on your screen.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: The livestock market discussion for today.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: This chart comes from Mr.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Sands, and I talked to him on a very good discussion Wednesday.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: If you're a premium subscriber, you have access to that, and I encourage you to go over our website, find it, and give it a listen.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: But this chart in our morning newsletter this morning is this week's Fed Cattle Slaughter disruptions disruptions are due to two converging trends already in motion, and this chart here portrays one of them.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: Carcass weights, which dipped counter-seasonally in July on poor feeding conditions due to record heat, are now resuming their seasonal uptrend.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: The other thing is that cash basis is running well above historical norms.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: I talked about that some yesterday with you all.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: The breaking news that is affecting all markets right now, especially the grains, is that Iran offers to reopen the straight of horror moves within seven days and restart nuclear talks.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: Iran has offered to reopen the strategically vital straight of horror moves and resume nuclear talks with the U.S.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: within seven days if Washington accepts its conditions.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see how this goes, but this has been one of the first big times in a while.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: Iran has offered to give up some ground.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see what how much ground that is and what President Trump will think of all this, but it's certainly making headwaves this morning.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching and thank you for listening, especially as I've been on the road here this past week back home in Colorado.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: I enjoy waking up in the morning and talking to you guys every single day.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: If you have any shout-outs for the show or things that you'd like to see, make sure to let us know down in the comments below.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: Remember, I'm Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that absolutely loves agriculture.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.