Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Banks Win, Retail Loses📉Crypto Market Update

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Banks Win, Retail Loses📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The banks are winning and today we're going to be
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: breaking it down. A lot happening in the market. Before
• 0:04
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  Speaker 1: It is an awesome one. All right, So let's jump
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: into a clip. And this, of course is Dave Portinoir.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: If you don't know who Portanoy is, he is the
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: owner of Barstool Sports.
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: But he's a very avid crypto investor.
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: Here he is, I'm panicking, like people panic, I'm panicking.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: And when you panic, when there's bloe on the streets,
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: that's when you buy. That's when you have to have
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: the diamond hands out, when you have to be like,
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: all right, everyone else is bailing, jumping overboard. I'm saying crypto,
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: what it's it? Ugh, it's sixty three thousand XRP of
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: bucks seventeen. I own a ton of bit going a
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: good amount of XRP, and I'm losing millions, millions. I'm
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: losing millions. I bought mst Are like a couple a
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: week ago when it was already crashing micro strategy. I'm like,
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: all right, I'm losing millions. Nothing matters.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: I have not made a scent in crypto, all right.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: So there you have it.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: One of the most prolific investors that's been was skeptical.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: I think in this particular case, he was just late
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: in coming into the market, buying at some of these
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: tops right here. Crypto markets have officially erased over two
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: trillion in market caps since the high in October. That
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: of course is starting to hit the coffers of everyone.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: What a total of one point eight billion in levered
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: crypto positions also liquidated today.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: So a very active.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Market right now and it is not slowing down. I
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: want to go to a clip real quick because this
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: will get into who is selling what.
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: Do you think primarily people who have acquired bitcoin in
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: the past year and a half. So some of the
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: metrics that we track are the cost basis for ETF
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: holders or ETP holders. That's about eighty three thousand dollars today.
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: We also have a metric for the average cost basis
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: for any holder of bitcoin, and this is called the
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: active investor cost basis. It does not include what's been
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: rewarded to minors and so that's about seventy eight thousand
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: dollars today. What is seventy eight thousand dollars no ID.
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: So if you think about it, from that firstspective, people
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: in the past year and a half or so they
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: bought bitcoin, they experienced a quick rally up to one
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: hundred twenty six thousand dollars and then quickly saw their
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: entire investment get cut in half.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: All right, So think about that for a second, guys,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: because what we're talking about here is a different kind
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: of investor that has been going into bitcoin, at least
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: in the last year twelve months. If you look at
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: what Eric Balschunes is hitting at, what he's talking about
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: is the ETF investor, They of course are now in
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: step back mode with four point four billion that is
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: out in terms of outflows over the last month. This
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: of course is set the year to date negative again.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: And I bet, along with others that are starting to
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: see this, and that's my point is that the investors
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: that have been going into the ETFs would have been
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: which have been one of the reasons that we saw
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: bitcoin go to one twenty six, are the ones that
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: do not have diamond heads. They are not in a
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: position of hotal These are traditional investors that just simply
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: look at this as a rotation of capital. I think
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: that's what we're seeing, and it is what we're seeing
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: in the market. What you're seeing right now in terms
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: of trying to defend the bitcoin position is mostly ogs
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: trying to hold into this slide, and of course everybody
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: understands where could this go. Bitcoin to crash towards fifty
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: three K if we see the support around sixty two
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: fail and it's the last major support that has marked
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: every bottom we saw in twenty fifteen, eighteen, the COVID
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: crash and of course FTX and twenty twenty one. So
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: sixty one sixty two is the area that I'm watching
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: very closely. It's the support level that could push us
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: into fifty three. Now the question is is does that
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: stop there if one of the majors starts to get
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: hit and I'm talking about micro strategy going into that.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: If you just look at the polymarket on this, what
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: price will bitcoin hit in June? Right now we're setting
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: on what we'll be sixty thousand at a sixty seven
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: percent chance and rising right now.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: So where do you guys think it will go? Let
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: me know in the comments.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Are you in the camp of a continuation of below
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: sixty for bitcoin and going into the fifties or do
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: you think it's going to go even further?
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: Put your comments down below.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, though, is still holding
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: it around twenty, which is low considerably off the mark,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: but not necessarily low back in February, which is.
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: When we hit the extreme level.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: One note is the last time we saw that low
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: bitcoin was around sixty K. So everything's rolling into more
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: of a sentiment. And this gets into a concern I have,
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: which is contagion, contagion that can rotate into a variety
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: of markets. One of the big contagions that I think
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: will happen and possibly push, and we'll talk about it
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: today is what could go on with the spacexipo, and
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I'll get into that in a minute before we go there,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: look at where traditional markets are. This was just to
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: give you guys a look right there. One week ago
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: we were setting at sixty one month ago at six.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: So there is a decline now on coming off of
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: a what was a greed market now to a neutral market,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: even though we are seeing all time highs on the
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: S and P and the Dow and now leading into
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: two of the biggest IPOs that we've been looking at
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: in the history of man.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: So some big stuff right now. Arthur Hayes, though, has.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Done something that he said he wouldn't do and that
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: he is selling Hype and near which were his Holy
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Trinities of coins that he was looking at primarily for
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: what was going on within the AI space. When you
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: look at his reasons, higher energy prices due to the
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Uranian War. Three mega IPOs. I think we've known all
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: that those have been coming. Prediction that Trump goes ANTIAI,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: this is an interesting one, that Trump would go ANTIAA.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: If he were to go ANTIAI, how much damage would
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: that put into the markets?
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: And that goes directly.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Against a lot of the people who have supported him,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: primarily Silicon Valley get into the White House.
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: So I don't know.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: I think right now it's going to be a question
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: mark going forward. Bloomberg talks about how Elon is wanting
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: a cheaper deal.
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: Most IPOs generally tend to raise less than a billion dollars,
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: a few hundred million dollars, and the banks would usually
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: charge between four to seven percent. But even when we
• 7:21
  Speaker 5: talk about the league of mega IPOs, that feed does
• 7:25
  Speaker 5: get reduced drastically. But even in most of those cases,
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: almost all of those cases are usually about one percent.
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: That was the case with Facebook Uber Ali Baba. You
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: have to go back perhaps to twenty twenty twenty ten
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: and a very unusual public listing of General motors back
• 7:41
  Speaker 5: in twenty ten when the banks agreed to a zero
• 7:44
  Speaker 5: point seventy five percent fee on that IPO, largely because
• 7:47
  Speaker 5: the owner of GM at the time was the United
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: States government. This is very different. But also look at
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: the quantum of money that SpaceX is trying to raise.
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: Seventy five billion dollars. So even if they charge one
• 7:59
  Speaker 5: of the low or offer one of the lowest IPO
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: fees on record less than seventy five bibs, less than
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: zero point seventy five percent, I would still amount to
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: somewhere in the ballpug of five hundred million dollars. And
• 8:11
  Speaker 5: Paul will tell you that is a pretty good payday
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: for banks. In a span of ten days, if everything
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: goes right, Goldman, Morganzini and the others would have raised
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: over one hundred billion dollars in new equity. I can't
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: think of a quarter where they would have raised that much,
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: or even the six months.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: We have gotten to anthropic or open air having it.
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: So you got to get ready. Yeah, okay.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know why trad fi and especially tradfi media
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: is looking at this as a good thing. I think
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: this is an alter scenario that could play out in
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: the market. Consider this, guys, right now, five hundred million,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: half a billion dollars is going to go into the
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: bank's coffers that are doing the investment capital for SpaceX.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: The likelihood is they're going to put that somewhere and
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: right now one of the biggest targets to put that
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: into is supporting the ABA. Supporting the ABA. Who what
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: is the ABI doing right now? The ABA is fighting
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: the Clarity Act tooth and nail, primarily with what we're seeing.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: And if you look at the comparison of how that
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: is going against the fair Shake pack, which is the
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: alternative to that, well, Fairshake has been getting their fair
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: share with eleven for eleven in terms of wins in California,
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, and South Dakota.
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: Let me show you something right here.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Though the war chest is setting at around one hundred
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: and ninety three million, the total spent so far is
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: around two hundred and seventy one million. Think about that
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: and five hundred million going into banks coffers to say,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: we have a little bit more to give to the
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: ABA to go fight this going forward.
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: So this is all bad for crypto.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: In an essence, this puts Elon counterintuitive to what's going
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: on in the retail market, especially with crypto.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: So this plays into a bad position.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: There some cell pressure that is starting to mount, and
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: I would say that this is no longer just traditional
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: sell pressure. This is now insane, massive sell pressure. And
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: look where it's coming from.
• 10:14
  Speaker 6: Unlike most IPO lockups, which are typically a standard six
• 10:18
  Speaker 6: months or one hundred and eighty days, they've got this
• 10:20
  Speaker 6: early release mechanism for the non executive, non founder class
• 10:26
  Speaker 6: of shareholders. So those guys are coming into the free
• 10:29
  Speaker 6: float almost immediately. We're talking a mega IPO, So that
• 10:35
  Speaker 6: can actually just simply lead to selling pressure elsewhere in
• 10:38
  Speaker 6: the market. It's just under five percent actually, but a
• 10:41
  Speaker 6: seventy five billion dollar primary raise actually needs it needs
• 10:45
  Speaker 6: you to need to find a home for eighty six
• 10:47
  Speaker 6: billion dollars on day one when you can take account
• 10:50
  Speaker 6: the green Shoe offering, that's fifteen percent and standard for
• 10:53
  Speaker 6: all offerings. Now that is for the record books by
• 10:57
  Speaker 6: by multiples. And you've got to bear in mud that
• 11:00
  Speaker 6: this is a company that's been around for over twenty years.
• 11:03
  Speaker 6: There have been several rounds that well several over twenty
• 11:06
  Speaker 6: rounds of financing, and pretty much anyone who's anyone in
• 11:11
  Speaker 6: the institutional sovereign wealth fund world, you know, even crossover
• 11:15
  Speaker 6: hedge fund and mutual fund world, has had the opportunity
• 11:18
  Speaker 6: to buy SpaceX shares at a significant discount to the
• 11:23
  Speaker 6: current implied valuation.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: All Right, to all of you, I want you to
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: mark this day. This is when we will see in
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: what I'm talking about is the SPACEXIPO.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: We will see this as.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: The greatest wealth transfer maybe in the history of man.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: And the reason I.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Think I think COVID was a drop in the bucket
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: compared to what we will see coming out of this.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: And here's what I'm talking about, the pressure that we're
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: seeing going into this spacexipo because of its size, possibly
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: a two trillion dollar IPO. I want you to think
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: about that in comparison to the dot bomb era. The
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: dot com era, which became a bomb was a seven
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: trillion dollar clawback of an entire industry. This is one
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: company at two trillion. I think about the markets that
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: this is hitting right now, right now, it's hitting risk assets.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: That's why you're seeing Bitcoin and most cryptos continuing.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: To fall what's going to come next.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Because it's coming for the rest of the markets, including
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: precious metals, Gold will most likely see a pullback. I've
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: talked to many goldbugs. We're talking about an exit plan.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: We are talking about people holding major equities in the
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: tech side of things that most likely could get transferred
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: into this. We will see not only retail, but I
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: think a lot of companies start to take it on
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: the end. And here's Jim Kramer. Not that I trust Kramer,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: but he had an interesting perspective on Nvidia.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 12:44
  Speaker 7: Specifically, they're going to have to sell some winners, which
• 12:48
  Speaker 7: brings me to the elephant in the room.
• 12:51
  Speaker 5: Brings me to Nvidia.
• 12:53
  Speaker 7: This company just had a very successful copy text festival
• 12:56
  Speaker 7: in Taiwan with CEO Jensen Wong at the top of
• 12:59
  Speaker 7: the game. I remain a believer in video, but when
• 13:03
  Speaker 7: I look at the stock, the Big six need to sell, sell, sell,
• 13:08
  Speaker 7: I'm betting most of the buyers will also own the
• 13:11
  Speaker 7: stock of the Nvidia. I am deeply concerned that'll become
• 13:13
  Speaker 7: to become known as a market donor a source of
• 13:17
  Speaker 7: funds for those who want to buy these new companies
• 13:19
  Speaker 7: and don't have the capital to do.
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: So.
• 13:22
  Speaker 7: I hope in Vidia gets a chance to buy back
• 13:24
  Speaker 7: so much stock. That'll be great, But you know what,
• 13:27
  Speaker 7: it's going to be a little difficult right now.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to be the case. So
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go anti Kramer on this one. I
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: think in Vidia survives this in the sense of holding
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: their investors. I think the ones that will not survive
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: it is probably going to be the other major cap
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: companies out there, and I think we will see that
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: even into the AI space, whether you look at Google
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: and Alphabet, you look at Amazon. Possibly we could see
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: this rolling into Netflix. There could be a lot of
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: winners in the past year that people would look at
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: and say it's time to take some profits. Those are
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: the one I'd be watching, not necessarily in video. Other
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: things you got to look at Here's Lily Lou. This
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: is always happens before a generational IPO, all risk, big
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: and small gets sold into dry powder. That's what I'm
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: talking about here. They want to get allocation. The real
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: question is whether or not SpaceX can actually deliver on
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: its promise. Is it something bigger than just a space company.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: That's the real question that has not been answered. In
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: the early days of Tasla, people would say, is it
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: something bigger than an electric car company?
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: And it was, but it took a long time to
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: get there.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: The willing are ready, I think to go in that directions,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: but I think a lot of people who are just
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: following the herd are the ones that could get hurt here.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: And that's my caution to the market. Right now.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: SpaceX is up upcoming IPO will make billions for Elon
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Musk at one hundred and thirty five a share, that's
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: only going to get him to a multi billionaire, not
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: to a trillionaire. So swinging a miss right there if
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: this in fact is the case, but it does push
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: more and more of retail money into the hands of
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: billionaires guys, And whether you like that or not, we
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: are going to see a rotation.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: And we've seen this before with some of these IPOs.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: I mean we have coinbased IPO, the Robinhood ipo, ARC
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: and Kathy Wood. They've been in this boat before where
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: they had basically going and buying into when the stock
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: is underperforming and then ended up trying to accumulate when
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: the stock starts coming down.
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: I think that might be the.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Scenario for arc is they may be in a position
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: where they don't go all in, even though she is
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: touting ridiculous numbers for SpaceX's future. I think in the
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: over twenty trillion, the opportunity here is when they actually
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: will pull the trigger on it. So be careful of
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: watching a lot of how these funds work. They have
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: not necessarily won in terms of these IPOs in the past.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: Coinbase is also going to come in with a pre
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: IPO trading platform, so this is all being launched on
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: and in courses will be with SpaceX. So now it's
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: going to affect potentially the crypto market as we go
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: into this. So now offering PreO IPO perpetual futures on
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: all non US users to trade of course available now.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: So there you go, guys, We're seeing it happen system wide.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: SpaceX may be either the most cursed stock in the
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: next three years or the most loved. Which one do
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: you think it will be most cursed most loved?
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: Right? Just put it down in the comments right there.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: It's official.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Micro strategy is coming in right now facing its biggest
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: unrealized loss, which is ten point eight billion. In other words,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: that's six years after buying bitcoin, the company has now
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: down seventeen percent on its position comparison on the S
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: and P five hundred up one hundred and sixteen. This
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: is a hard pill to swallow, I think for a
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: lot of bitcoiners, and definitely for a lot of bitcoin
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: investors because they have been watching this run up to
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: one to twenty six and then what has happened is
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: that asset is now cut in half in less than
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: a year. So the key here is what will micro
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: Strategy do if we continue to see its slide? Remember
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: that micro strategies position and you can guys go out
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: there and put this through AI. Compare this to when
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: the last time we saw a low of bitcoin at
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: sixteen thousand dollars.
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: Look where micro.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Strategies position their average entry and whether or not they
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: were in position at that time. Now, granted you could say, hey, Paul,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: it's a little different now because of the size of
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: the market position that they hold now, but I think
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: it has a lot of the same similarities. The thing
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: that concerns me is going to be the contagion effect
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: that sentiment could cause that wasn't necessarily happening back then.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: And what I'm talking about is the weight of the
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: entire market. You look at Stretch and that asset whether
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: it deepegs and is unable to re accommodate what it's
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: been trying to do, which is hold around a dollar.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: So the real question is going to be how do
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: they respond when sentiment truly does shift and if a
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: contagion effect occurs inside the stock as well as some
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: of the financial assets that micro Strategy has put out
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: there in terms of Stretch and others. Think about that
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: capital markets right now. Michael Saylor is defending. He simply says, hey,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: they're all funding and the AI build out is historic.
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: No problem.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin ETFs have seen four bill no problem because bitcoin.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: This is simply a capital rotation and not a Bitcoin
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: impairment of volatility. I think the question mark is still
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: out there in terms of being answered.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: Of how does this play out? The stakes are different.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: This time around in this roulette wheel we call the
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: markets for sure. Other things you got to consider right now,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: is this right here? Stretch was designed to stay near
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: one hundred bucks. Forever Strategy launched it into twenty twenty
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: five rays two and a half billion in return. Investors
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: got the eleven and a half right. This has been
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: a good product for most The entire structure dependent on
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: one thing, and that was keeping the price at one hundred.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: It hasn't been able to hold it, which has been
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: pretty much the scenario over the past several site cycles
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: where they pay out dimonends. But right now the system
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: is cracking. It just dropped to ninety four. Ninety three
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: is the number to watch on this one.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: That'll be the question.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin dump to sixty seven Strategy, so Bitcoin for the
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: first time, even though it was nominal, and a few
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: other things. Watch Stretch because this is going to be
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: a key factor in how micro Strategy performs overall, because
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: that will be the next one. Sailor down eleven and
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: a half, Bill tom Lee down eight point seven, Bill Man.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: The diamond hands are in position right now.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: How well do they hold?
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: With all that in mind, here is Tom Lee's simply
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: dropping a program that has similarities to Stretch, paying back
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: nine and a half percent.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: This is the kind of thing though.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: In an up market or even in a flat market,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: I would say this is a brilliant move.
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: It's good for eth in this kind of market.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: I'm questioning the timing right now for this one. I
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: don't know this one, and I you know, listen, I'm
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: a big eight fan. I love what they're what Eith
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: is trying to do in itself. I love the investors
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: of what Eith has been doing, but I just don't
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: know if this is the right move for BM and R.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Peter Schiff says, no, BM and R is going to
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: issue three hundred mill and preferred shares baring a page
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: from Sailor, and then you've got fund strat of course,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: who will now offer a nine and a half yield
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: on the money to basically buy more ethereum. That's the point.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: He says, this is going to backfire and going to
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: blow up on the pad. I don't know, It'll be
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: a question. I don't know if it's going to be
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: as successful as what.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: The difference though, that.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: Tom Lee has over Sailor is he is an investor,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: he is a fund manager. He's not a company CEO
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: that has got into creating assets. He's been a fund
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: manager on Wall Street for a very long time, so
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: his reputation probably is more at risk here, and I
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: think for him to go into this, he's putting his
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: reputation on the line for sure, so this is a
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: big one. Treasure Secretary Bessett says, don't worry. We're going
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: to go ahead and continue our plan this summer of
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: confirming that we are moving on deliberate speed toward building
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: a strategic bitcoin reserve. Interesting timing that he announces this
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: as bitcoin is continuing to fall and claiming that we
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: will see Clarity start to push through. I think the
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: administration seems to try to push this through. The question
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: is is will they get it? Here's Bessett talking about it.
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: Could you give me an update on where things stand
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: with the implementation of the executive order.
• 21:34
  Speaker 8: The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is something, this is new technology,
• 21:40
  Speaker 8: this is new ground. We are proceeding with all deliberate speed,
• 21:45
  Speaker 8: and we are making sure that as we are doing
• 21:48
  Speaker 8: this in this complicated process, that we use best practices
• 21:52
  Speaker 8: and things will be durable for the future. And look
• 21:56
  Speaker 8: forward to working with you and your team on that that.
• 21:58
  Speaker 8: I look forward to the Clarity Act being passed this summer, great.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: Being passed this summer.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Well, if JP Morgan has their way, they're going to
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: continue to try to figure out a way around this
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: in terms of a delay. They says the timeline for
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: passing Crypto Market Structure Bill is getting tighter, and they
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: are right, it is getting tighter, and it's putting pressure
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: on the markets for sure. We're going to cover this
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: in a lot more because the markets are not going
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: to sleep.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: Stay tuned.
• 22:30
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• 22:33
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• 22:37
  Speaker 2: The link is in the description.