Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 3 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter

Transcript

NFL Week 3 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman. We're heading into week three of
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: the NFL season. It's already going so so fast. Everything
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: is upside down. Big Ben is out for the season.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Drew Brees is out for six weeks. Uh. Sam Donald
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: didn't play in the Monday night football game, and they're
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: down to Luke Falk. Uh. There's so much activity on
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: the betting boards and we're gonna get to it all
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: in a few precious seconds. I wanna remind everybody that
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: later on in the show, Uh, Darren Ravel and Simon
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Hunter are gonna come out. We're gonna go through our
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest picks. We're six and four
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: lt Uh after two weeks, folks six and four, three
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: and two each week. Last week Darren made us pick
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: the Patriots and it totally were doubt. We went against
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: our better instincts. Later on the show, you're also going
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: to get Scooch Roulette, me and my co host, who
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: I'm going to introduce right now, picking our favorite bets
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: of the week. But first let me introduce Bob Scucci
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: from BOYD Gaming, representing the Orleans and all the boyd
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: giving books throughout the land. My brother Chad, what's going on?
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: As you know, I'm betting every game this NFL season.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: It's UH called Project to or Bust. People can follow
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: along in the Action Network app. They can see every
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: pick I'm making. Just look for two fifty six or
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: bust in the Your Network gap uh scooch I eleven
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: through the first two weeks. Fantastic. I'm up eight point
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: to eight units. That is amazing, right, it really is.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: That's a that's a real yeah. The game that really
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: sort of turned the corner for me this past week
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: was we were headed for probably an eight and eight
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: week maybe in nine and seven weeks at best, and
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the Bears. I was in the perfect situation because I
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: had the Broncos plus two and a half and um,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I had resigned myself to the Bears winning my hometown team,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: the Bears winning but losing the bat and then miracles
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: of miracles, Battered Flacco, battered Joe Flacco, the breaded the
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: panco breaded steak came through for me. And then the
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Bears found themselves a kicker who came through for me again.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I got the double win instead of getting the emotional
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: hedge getting the Bears win and losing the money. It
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: was a win win. It was a literal win win,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: literal win win. Yeah. I mean we were fortunate we
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: didn't take too much money at minus two in that one.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: But those are the kind of games that, uh boy,
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: they just think they have you on the edge of
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: your See wasn't exciting finish? That was, Oh my god,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: it was amazing. I mean the drama just attached to
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: going for two points, having a penalty, then going for
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the kick, then you know, to kick the extra point
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: to to tie the game. I mean just the back
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: and forth was just unbelievable in just the last few
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: seconds of the game. It was great. It was totally great.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: And you know what it did made me really made
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: me really excited to bet even more games this weekend. Well,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you a game that had me on the
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: edge of my seat. That was our the bookmaker's favorite game.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Because if you told me before the weekend that the
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Chiefs would cover, the Patriots would cover, and the Cowboys
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: would cover and we were still able to have a
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: winning week, I said, you were crazy. But the one
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: game that bailed us out and saved us from complete disaster.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Was the Cardinals Ravens and we and we had the
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Ravens at a thirteen point favorite and they were up
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: six points. And if you saw the end of that game,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: as there's about two and a half minutes left in
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: the game and we're hoping the Ravens would just run
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: the clock out and La Mar Jackson's thrown thirty yards
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: down field. The Ravens are inside the five yard line
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: and with about a minute and a half left, and
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: if they scored a touchdown, we'd have gotten destroyed. But
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: fortunately they made a first down at about the four
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: yard line, five yard line and they were able to
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: run the clock out. So that game, you talked about
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: one game making a difference because of the Parley situation
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: we were in with the Chief, Patriots and Cowboys all
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: covering that would have been the four team or that
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: everybody had the joys of betting. My friend, listen, you
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: can get everything Scooch and I are talking about. We
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: do our show live on Sundays. We just debuted this
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: this past Sunday. We're doing it live on Radio dot
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Com and the Radio dot Com app, and basically we're
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: going through every game and talking about where the lines
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: are moving, and in real time lines are actually moving,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: so you can get a sense of what the wise
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: guys are doing and where you might find your advantage
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: of Scooch. It's Tuesday afternoon. We got another game coming
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: up in forty eight hours. Tennessee is visiting Jacksonville. These
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: teams like, Wow, Jacksonville, they're on the precipice of disaster.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: But they are. But I don't mean, I don't think
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: that means you automatically bet against the Jags short home
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: dogs at home on a Thursday night. Um Jacks are
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: one of a half point underdogs here. What's been happening, Well,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: all the public money is on the Titans in this one,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: but at one and a half. You know, all these
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: teams in that in that conference seemed to be just
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: play every game type. They look at Houston, Jacksonville, Fantasy Indianapolis.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: They're all within three points in terms of power ranking.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: So you're not going to see kind of a whole
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: lot of UH, big line movements in a lot of
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: these UH conference games. Uh, And they seem to be
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: playing a lot of low scoring, tight, tight games. So
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: this figure is to be another one we have a
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: total of forty figures to be another uh tight defensive game. Um,
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: the wise guys really haven't weighed in on this one,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: so it's just all public money on on Tennessee. Um,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: we're fortunate to get the underdog last week and the
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Thursday night game. Uh, we're gonna need another underdog in
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: this one. But uh, I don't I don't mind needing
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars and this one, I'm not. Uh. And we
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: talked a little bit about the Titans and that big
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: win against Cleveland in the Week one, and you really
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: can't take too much uh from that game. So I
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: think the line is right. I don't think we're gonna
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: see a whole lot of line movement in this one.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: I think the right play here the Jags on the
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: money line. Yeah, you're able to get anywhere from plus
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: one oh five, maybe plus one ten if you shop
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: even money at the worst. But uh yeah, the one
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: and a half point isn't going to be that much value. No,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I like that. I'm going to make that bet. Why
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: is guy play? Uh? Green Bay? This line shot up,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: It opened it six and a half. They're now what
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: mine is? Eight? Against the Broncos. Nobody's buying flat. No,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: one's buying bad and Flacco. No, they're really not. You know,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: they really thought a lot of a lot of people
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: were high on the Broncos this year coming into the season.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Even some of the sharp guys were taking a flyer
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: on the Broncos to either you know, when the division,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: when the conference, thinking that, you know, a veteran quarterback
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: was kind of the missing piece that this team needed,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: that they already had the defense. But uh, they're they're
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: still struggling. You can see that offense is just spluttering.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: You know, two games in a row where the first
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: two actually two and a half quarters there, the offense
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: was just a nimick going into the fourth quarters. If
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: they play with that sense of urgency, it seems like
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: the end of both games. You look at the end
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: of the Raider game, and you look at the end
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: of the Bears game. With the Broncos and they play
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: with that sense of urgency in the last half of
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, maybe they just need to just kind
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: of extend that to the other quarters. But the public
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: is not sold on them. We were kind of looking
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: at the Packers a six and a half point favorite
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: going into this weekend and after both the Packers beat
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: the Vikings and the Broncos losing. Um we uh, we
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: jacked this line up and still they laid it. So
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: we opened this game, uh seven and a half. We're
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: already up to eight. I could see this game going
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: up a little higher. Actually, we're looking at about of
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: the tickets right now are on the Packers, so sharp
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: guys haven't taken the Broncos, so they're not believers either.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: So I definitely see this line moving up by game time.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Everybody can see everything I'm looking at and asking Scooch
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: about with line moves. Uh total bets on each game,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the betting ticket percentages, the money percentages, download the free
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: action network GAP. I love this next game. I love it,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: and I feel like I might have lost the value already.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Indianaples coats uh two point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: This game open lower. Yeah, I kind of like I
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: favored the Falcons and this one myself. We've already gotten
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: some some big plays on the Falcons. The sharp guys
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: are on the Falcons, and actually even the public is
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: on the Falcons. And I've said it often when the
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: public and the sharp guys are on the same side,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: and it usually means we made a little bit of
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: a mistake. And I think the the the issue here
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: is we didn't adjust Falcons up enough. There's still the
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: same rating we had going into the Sea season. We
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: certainly adjusted the Colts up. We've been high on the Colts,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: but I think the Colts already got all of their
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: value in Week one and week two, uh where where
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: they covered both those weeks and and actually uh you
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: know beat the Titans, which was which it was a
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: huge win. So I think the value was out of
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: the Colts and there's still quite a bit of value
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: and the Falcons they can easily win this game. Talk
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: about a money line play, This might be a nice
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: money line play as well. Wow, I couldn't disagree with
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: more with everything you're saying. I was disappointed. I was
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: disappointed I hadn't gotten the Colts at minus one. Wow. Yeah,
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I mean we were high on the Colts all all season.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I think this one, I think we just haven't adjusted
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: the Falcons enough. We've we've over adjusted the Colts and
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: as I said, we've already we've already seen a couple
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: of plays on the Falcons. We opened this game three
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: and we're down to two. So, uh, maybe we did
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: open it too high, But I do favor the Falcons,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: and I don't know what people are seeing, like the
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Falcons escaped with their lives at home and needed a
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: miracle sixty four yard final two minutes screen and run
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: from Julio Jones, Like they're not that good on the road,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: They're not that good of a team. I'm just not
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: going to pay the Falconscons. I did listen, I did
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: bet the Falcons this weekend, and that's yeah, as part
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: of my ten and six run. Well, I'll tell you what.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: We're gonna need the Colts if you are right. Like
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: I said, I'm shocked at the public and the Sharp
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: guys are both on this on the same side. It's
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: possible the public is just following some of the move
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: but uh, you know, we we we opened like I said,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: we opened three, down to two, So definitely money on
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: the Falcons. Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens. They're
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: favored by six and a half points. Kansas City is uh,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: is this the week the Baltimore Avens get exposed? Yeah? Yeah,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: here's another game that I think we wanted to be
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: on the high side to the Chiefs two weeks in
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: a row where one of our biggest parlay games, most
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: heavily bet games, and as long as they keep covering,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have a lot of liability. Uh, you know,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: no matter who they play, except for maybe the Patriots.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: So going up and going into this game, you have
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: to throw the Ravens Dolphins game out out of the mix.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: But you look at how Arizona kind of moved the
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: ball against the Ravens. So that was a bit of
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: a surprise in that Ravens defense that was highly touted
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: that they're looking to become the number one defense in
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: the NFL got a little exposed by the Cardinals in
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback. So what is this Chief's offense gonna
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: do if the Cardinals were able to move the ball? Uh,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: you know, I haven't seen anybody so far be able
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: to stop the Chiefs going and starting from you know,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: last season and going into the first two games of
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: this season, so we definitely wanted to be as high
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: as possible. We opened seven and a half. We did
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: take a small wise guy play on the Ravens at
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: plus seven and a half, but I think that's only
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: because there were no other seven and a halfs out there,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: not because it was a legitimate play on the Ravens
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: at seven, Um, we're kind of even. Ticket count is
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: definitely high on the Chiefs, but I think seven is
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: probably the right number. I don't know how in this
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: game there's two teams, the Chiefs and the Patriots. If
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: you do anything other than bed on these teams, then
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: you're just wasting your money until they prove you otherwise.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: There are exceptions to every rule. Yeah, yeah, I mean
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: we've said that so many times with the Patriots, and
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: now I think we can lump the Chiefs in that.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: In that same category, you have to throw out all
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: those kind of models that you've used over the years
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: in terms of home dogs and about double digit favorites,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: and when you have just juggernaut like these teams, it's just, uh,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: you have to throw all those rules out the window
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: and make exceptions. And you know, why step in front
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: of a moving train if these teams just keep covering,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: just ride that until it stops. Speaking of Juggernauts, Buffalo
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Bills are now six point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: at home. I hate both of these teams, I do too,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: you know, Um, particularly the Bengals, you know, you can't
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: figure them out that Uh, they really looked. The Bengals
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: looked really bad in that loss. It's one thing to
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: lose a game, and I'm talking about the Bengals game
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: this past weekend. It's one thing to lose a game,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: but it's another to just look pathetic and not be
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: able to move the ball, and their defense just to
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: be giving up you know, ten fifteen yard plays every play. Uh.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: They were just never in that game from the beginning. Uh.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: And coming off of the a game against Seattle, were
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: they only lost by one point and actually looked pretty
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: good and have a legitimate shot of winning that game. Uh.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Just uh, you know, you can't figure that stuff out.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: And Uh, the Bills, on the other hand, you know,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: the big comeback win in in in Week one and
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: then another win this this past week. Uh, certainly we've
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: had to upgrade their ratings. You know, this game we
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: would have been looking at about two and a half
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: prior to the season started, and we're up to six.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: So huge adjustments on on both these teams. But if
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: you adjusted way down on the Bengals, what's your adjustment
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: on the Bengals down? Uh, well, it's more of a
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Bill's adjustment up. The Bengals adjustment down was really just
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: off of uh, off of last week. Um, and just
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: the public perception of what what they're going to see
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: in this one. And we know all the money is
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: just going to be coming in on the Bill, So
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I will say that this line is inflated. So I mean,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: if we had to take the game as bad as
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: the those look last week, I probably said there's more
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: value in the five and a half with the Bengals.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: The sharp guys haven't weighed in on this one yet,
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: but again, if you're looking at just two weeks ago,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: line would have been two and a half and now
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: the line's five and a half. It's just more of
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: a reflection of where we think the public is going
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: to come in on all right, this next game? Is
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: this going to be the storyline every week for the
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: New England Patriots? Historic lines involving the New England Patriots.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that's the headline that's blaring blaring from Action
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: network dot com. Go check it out, check out the
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Action Network app. What do you got the Patriots at
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: right now? Twenty two and a half. I actually moved
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: to twenty three and a half before we started doing
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the show. And yeah, so I I think this is
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: the highest line I've ever put up. I want to say,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: it's not not you add you had you had the
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Broncos point favorites over the Jags in like Peyton Manning's
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: first or second year there. Wow, Okay, well thanks for that.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: I appreciate you. I'm glad you told me because everyone's
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: asking me if this was the highest line. Uh. And
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: I don't quite remember, but we opened this line at
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: eighteen just to give you an idea. And that was
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: before Trevor Simeon went out of Monday Nights game. So
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: the the adjustment, and when you're talking about having to
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: adjust the game because Trevor Simeons out of the game,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: you know you're kind of scraping the scraping the bottom
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: of the barrel. But just the ticket count alone, I
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: am not exaggerating. Okay, I know it's only Tuesday and
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: we kind of adjusted the line. I've got two tickets
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: on the Jets. Oh my god, if there, if, if
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: you guys are listening out there, I want to give you.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: I want to buy you a butt fet for bet
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: to Jet. Oh my god, that is incredible. Yeah, that's
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: just two who knows how Yeah, two tickets. And I
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: mean if they couldn't they couldn't move the ball at
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: all at all against the Browns, and so now they're
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: going up against the Patriots, and we saw Miami uh
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: not be able to move the ball against against the Patriots. Uh.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: The only saving grace. I know the Patriots offensive line
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: is banged up. They were down to only one reserve
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: um book by the end of the game last Sunday,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: So I know they're looking to pick up some some personnel.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: They're looking at some offensive lineman just they can't afford
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: to have any other old lineman hurt. So if there
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: is a weak spot, that's it. But I just don't
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: know if the Jets can form any sort of pass rush.
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, what do wise
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: guys do here? They they're obligated to bet a more
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: than three touchdown dog, aren't they? Like? Does it? Does it? Professional?
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Better see this number and just skip it. I think
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: they skip it until if they haven't taken the twenty
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: three and a half already, which they haven't. I mean
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: not even not even for a little bit, the sharp guys.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: So they're wondering how high this thing can get. So
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: I would think they were they're probably gonna take it,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: but they're gonna take it, uh, probably closer to game time.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, we've got, you know, we've got a lot
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: of you know, four figure bets, thousand dollar bets, four
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: thousand dollar bets on the Patriots. UM. I wouldn't say
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: they're necessarily from from professional betters, but there's people that
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: aren't that are willing to put up their their money
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: believing in the Patriots. I mean, three thousand dollars not
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: a bad sized bet, and we're getting a lot of them.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: Jesus h. The Philadelphia Eagles are seven point favorites at
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: home against the Detroit Lions. Who's doing what they're skeoch
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: sharp guys all over the Lions in this one. Two
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: weeks in a road now. So the sharp guys were
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: on the Lions last week against the Chargers. We saw
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: that line go from the Chargers minus three on the road.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: It closed at to pick them, so uh and it
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: was a tight game, but the Lions got the uh,
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: got got the cash. So sharp guys are coming right
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: back on the Lions again. They got seven and a
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: halfs in this one. Um then they also got seven flat.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: We're actually down to, uh, the Eagles minus seven even money,
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get the Lions now, you've
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: got to lay a dollar twenty with the plus seven.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: The public is still betting the Eagles, but only at
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: about a two to one ratio. It's not overwhelming and
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: there's no big public plays on this, so right now
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: it's just all sharp money all on the Lions. This
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: is the weekend of big spreads. I like the Lions
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: in that game. By the way, I think the Eagles
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: are getting a little bit too much credit for some
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: some for a last minute win against the Redskins and
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: a last second loss to the to the Falcons. Minnesota
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: is a nine point favorite at home against Oakland. Is
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: this a line that is reflective of how bad Oakland
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: did against Kansas City or Minnesota's ability to come back
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: and almost pull went out against the Packers. Uh. Probably
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit of both. More so the more so
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: the Vikings ability to come back against the Packers. We
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: saw what they did in Week one against the Falcons.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: They were still one of the most highly rated teams
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: coming into the season. Uh so, I think the Raiders
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: are probably overachieved up till now, even though they uh
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: you know, came away on the short end of those games,
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: but they still hung in there. We're actually at seven
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: and a half, so we weren't at nine. I'm not
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: sure which places are using nine on this one, but
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: we opened seven and a half and we're probably a
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: little heavy on the vikings we've I go to eight.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: A matter of fact, I'm going to test the waters.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go to eight right now. Line change
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: at nine, mine change there. We go. Tell me if
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: anything happens while we're on the phone, I will They
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: don't take eight eight a dead number. I think they
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: would have to if they didn't take seven and a half.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: They're they're not going to take eight. They would probably
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: wait for the eight and a half. Uh you know
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: why nine is afraid of seven? Why because seven? Eight? Nine?
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: All right? Or is it is that why tenant ten
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: is afraid of seven? I can't remember. I can't remember
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: the joking. I don't know who's afraid of who? You know,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: I haven't told that jokes. And my kids were young,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: all right, we got another record setting line, record setting
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: line minute. So Miami is a twenty one and a
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: half point We're close to a three touchdown underdog on
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: the road against the Dallas Cowboys, who I think they're
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: a juggernaut. Yeah, you know, I'm afraid you're right they are.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: They are looking pretty good. We opened twenty one in
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: the game. Um, and here's another one prior to the weekend.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: We're looking at Dallas as a at a sixteen point favorite.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Seventeen point favorite, um, Miami. Uh. You know, in addition
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: to like we talked about it last week, how do
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: you handicap emotion and how do you handicap morale? And uh,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: not only the unloading players, but the players they have
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: or are wanting out or there's already been some movements
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: today as a matter of fact, and some trades. So, uh,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: you know, there's no bottom on on how bad this
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Miami team can can get. There's no indication that they
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: can be competitive. So, uh, you know, how high do
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: we make these numbers? I was encouraged by the fact
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: that when we went to twenty one and a half,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: we took some we had some resistance there. So the
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: sharp guys are taking the twenty one and a half. UM.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: At least for now, we're actually a little bit heavier
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: and straight bets on the Dolphins than we are on
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys, which is good as opposed to how the
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Patriot game is just all one way right now. So
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: at least this game we're getting some money on both sides.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: Here's a question from a friend of the podcast, Alan Lobe.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: He's been in the podcast many times, world famous screenwriter,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: written many movies, written, wrote twenty one what Wall Street
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: two um regular regular bond vivant, Alan Lobe, what would
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: the odds be on for this is a question for you.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: What would the odds be on the Pats going sixteen
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: or no? Well, Mammy goes, oh and sixteen. Well, it's funny.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: I actually put that prop up yesterday, and I made
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins. I made the Dolphins minus one and a
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: half games, So the prop was actually, uh, well, well
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: who will have more and of the two uh Patriots
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: wins versus Dolphins losses. And and the interesting thing is
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Week seventeen the Dolphins play the Patriots. So depending on
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: you know, if the uh, if the Patriots go undefeated,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: and you know whether they rest their players in week seventeen.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: It can set up all types of drama. I think
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: the two biggest challenges for the Patriots or I think
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: they play at the Cowboys is actually one of their
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: one of the games, and and uh possibly at the
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Chiefs if I'm not mistaken, But there was two games
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: we're looking that can be very tough for the Patriots.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: And then of course if you're looking at the Dolphins,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: they play the Jets twice, so it's going to be intriguing.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: I like it. And we do have a prop up
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: on the board. So what are the what are the
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: numbers and the problems? Uh, well, the Dolphins are minus
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: one and a half games. Who's gonna have more Dolphins
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Dolphins losses or Patriots wins? So so I think the
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: Dolphins will have uh more more losses than the Patriots wins.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: But you didn't do a sixteen or no oh in
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: sixteen problems. Didn't do that one specifically. Now, what do
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: you think the chances of both of those things happening are?
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: What would you put the odds at on that? Uh?
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: Probably six to one, seven to one. He you know
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: what he said, eight to one? Wow, good friends, he's
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: pretty shut alright, New York Giants, uh, led by Daniel
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: Jones on the road to the Tampa by Buccaneers. Give
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: me a little bit of your thought process on what
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: happened this morning when that news broke on Eli Manning
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: being benched. Yeah. So, I mean, on one hand, you
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: have to make some adjustment. There's going to be some
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: public perception that they're gonna come in on the on
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers, and they were going to come in on
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers regardless, even if Eli Manning will remain the starter.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: It's just difficult to when it when rookie comes in
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: for for his first real game, you know, regardless of
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: how highly touted the rookie is. So uh, he could
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: surprise a lot of people and have the kind of
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: performances he had in preseason. But we're still going to
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: stick with that, you know, two to three point adjustment
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: based on you know, a veteran starter like Manning and
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: a rookie. So the line went from three and a
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: half up to six and a half. Six in some places.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: We're still seeing a lot of public money on the Buccaneers,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: but nothing yet from the Sharp guys, so they haven't
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: weighed in. But you took Did you take the game
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: down and then repost it? Yeah? Yeah, so so initially
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the line was three and a half when we posted it. Uh,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Sunday night, we put the line up, took it down,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: re hung a six and a half. Did you did
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: anybody bet the Giant the bucks at minus three and
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: a half while it was up before you were able
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: to take it down after the news broke you? Did
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: you hear the news and be able to adjust before
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: any betters? No? Actually, Uh, it was fortunate enough that
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: we didn't take any wagers at minus three and a
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: half and the lines were down when we when we
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: got the news, so we were able to kind of
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: make the adjustment and rehan it without any liability. Good
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: for you. I'm always happy for you when you guys win.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: Here's a game that I'm really interested in. Carolina is
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: a two and a half point favorite on the road
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: at Arizona. You're gonna get toasted on this game. Toasted.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: So actually, here's here's a game that we actually do
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: have down off the board, uh, temporarily until we get
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit more confirmation about Cam Newton's ankle. So initially,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: when when we hung the line, the Panthers. We made
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: a three point favorite, and the first couple of bets
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: were on the Cardinals plus three. We went to plus
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: three minus twenty, took another couple of bets, and and
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: that's when we took the line down, just to make
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: sure that the betters didn't know any more than than
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: than we knew. So we'll probably put it up shortly,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: but uh we may we may stick with two and
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: a half and we put it back up instead of
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: the three. I will bet the Cardinals no matter what
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: number you put up here. So the sharp guys agree
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: with you on this one, and uh, you know I
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: can't disagree. You look at the big comeback to get
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: the tie with Detroit. You look at how they hung
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: tough with the Ravens as a thirteen point dog. Um
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: talk about a rookie quarterback making some impact, I mean,
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: and they can surprise you. And this kid is uh
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: is looking pretty good. So we know the public will
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: be uh on on the Cardinals, but not not overwhelming.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at it at it right now. The public
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: is only on them at about fifty five, so it's
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: not not overwhelming. But people like the way they play.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: I've seen the same numbers in the Action Network app.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: It's free you go downloaded San Francisco. The juggernaut that
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: is the forty Niners hosting Mason Rudolph and the Ben
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Roethlisberger less Pittsburgh Steelers. Big, big open for the Niners
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: as more than touchdown favorites or touchdown favors, depending what
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: you're looking at. Wow, that is a big number for
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: the Niners on the Steelers. Huge number, huge number. And uh,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: a couple of things obviously. I mean, the Niners looking
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: really good in their first couple of games, the Steelers
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: looking really bad then losing Roethlisberger, and um, just uh,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: the public is just not gonna be playing the Steelers.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: They're just completely off the Steelers, and and and and frankly,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: they would have been off the Steelers even with a
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: healthy Roethlisberger, you know, even having lost that game against Seattle.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: So the public loves the forty Niners all of a sudden,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: they're they're on this game. Aim at about a three
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: to three to one ratio, four to one ratio, but
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: we're looking at about a seven seven and a half
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: point adjustment from just two weeks ago. It's a huge adjustment.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: So Um, I think the sharp guys would have to
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: take the seven. They haven't taken it now, but I
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: think by game time they will. I mean, that's an
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: awful big adjustment for just for just two weeks into
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: the season. Well, different quarterback. You can't just say like
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: you're going from a two time Super Bowl winning quarterback
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: if you've for the most yards in the NFL last
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: year to a second year player who's thrown you know,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: twenty passes, doesn't seem that's not dramatic. It would have
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: been so even with uh, it would have been a
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: big adjustment, even with Roethlisberger in there. I'm just we're
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: we've adjusted a lot on the forty Niners off two
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: weeks and off of public perception. I just think the
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: values out of the forty Niners. All right, all right,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: l A Chargers host in the Houston Texans. Chargers are
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: two and a half three point favorites, which is a
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: big difference in the number. M M. Yeah, you know,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: just uh, not much on this game at all. I mean,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: this is one of the games that's surprising. They just
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: had some of the the least the least amount of
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: action on the board. Haven't done anything with it. Then
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: the number is pretty solid at three. Um, you know, Houston,
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: as good as they are, they haven't become a public
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: team and and the Chargers have always kind of flown
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: onto the radars. Radar, so this might be one of
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: the quarantity V games at least with the bad teams
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: like the Jets and the Dolphins, you have that underlying
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: story factor with the biggest points breads. Ever, so there's
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: more interest in those games. But this game is just
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: like okay, uh, just not a whole lot of interest. Yeah.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Action Network gap right now, and
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: the three least bad games are the Chargers, the Steelers,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: and the Giants in the Bucks right now. Yep, it
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: makes sense. No, exactly, No, absolutely uh, New Orleans with
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater another sort of quarterback no one seems to
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: really care about. Uh in terms of inspiring viewership visiting
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks, who are a very interesting team right now.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: And the Seahawks are only the adjustment for this game,
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: not huge. The Seahawks are only a four point favorite. Yeah,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: so actually we we kind of like the Seahawks in
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: this one. We made him a five point favorite. We're
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: trying to draw a little money on the Saints, but
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: so far happened, so uh, wondering how how high we
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: have to move this to get a little Saints money
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: on this one. Um. Fortunately the Seahawks in their winds
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: didn't look dominating. Uh. And that's kind of like what
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: the public is looking at a lot of times, the
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: public remembers having a bet on the team, and even
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: if the team wins, if they didn't cover, in the
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: perceptions that they lost the game. So, uh, we don't
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: have as much money on the Seahawks, um as we
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: probably would have had the Seahawks covered in Week one.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: It's a big, big favorite. UM. But here just again,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: the public they don't like unknown quarterbacks. They like they
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: like to know that. Uh, you know we have Drew Brees,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: or we have Tom Brady, or you know we we
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: have Mahomes. Uh. They don't like all these unknowns, so
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: they're they're they're not gonna be bet in the Saints.
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, we might get a little action done at
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: our Mississippi properties that are close to New Orleans, but
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: right now we haven't got much Saints money. Look at
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: you talking about all your properties all over the country.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: Book Maker to the world Rams, the Rams on the
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: road at the brown and all of a sudden, a
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: more interesting game. You only make the Rams what to
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: two and a half point favorites? We we made them three.
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: We knew we'd get some Rams money. Um. And I'm
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: surprised that the sharp guys haven't played the Browns yet. Um.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: This is this is a great game, what a great matchup.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: And rightly so, it's the Sunday night game. We tried
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: a little we try to be a little bit high
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: on the Sunday night game, especially when there's so many
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: big favorites. Uh. And it's a lot of these big
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: favorites cover than a reliability on this Sunday night game.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: It's just going to be that much bigger. So um,
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: I mean right now it's about bets on the Rams
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: and uh, we're probably going to move this to three
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: flat as I'm speaking, So I know it's not a
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: point spread move rams direction, juice change, juice change. I
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: like that. That's a tough one for me, that game,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: It really is. It really is. It's really tough. I
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: don't think I haven't I don't have to lean yet
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: on that game. Yeah, I think the line is Uh,
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: I think the line is right on this one. Um.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: Let's see. So, I mean some some places have the
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: game off the board only because Odell Beckham's lifted as probable.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: I mean he has the hip injury. But uh, I
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: don't know why they still have that game off the board.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: We think he's gonna play all right. Last game on
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: the board, Chicago Bears visiting the Washington Redskins. Redskins are
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: four point dogs in this game. I don't think the
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Bears can outscore anybody by four points. And that's the thing.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: And I think the sharp guys agree with you on
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: this one. They took the four and a half, we
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: went down to four. Public will still be on Chicago,
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: but the Chicago just can't score. And like like you said,
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: their their games so far have just been low scoring affairs. Um,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: Washington was good to us in Week one against the Eagles.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: We got to cover. They hung tough with the Cowboys
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: in the first half last week, but then ultimately losing
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: by ten. Uh not getting the cover a favorite Washington
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: at home. I mean, if we had to had to
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: play it, I think the the public won't be overwhelmingly
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: on Chicago. This should be a good game in terms
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: of action on both sides, and probably at the number four,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: the wise guys will probably drive this down a little bit.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: Excuse you know what time it is? I think I do. Yeah,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: let's play the music. Alright, So last week you had
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: the Bengals, you lost. I had the Steelers. I lost,
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: But since my quarter back was knocked out, I get
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: to go first. Okay, you're ready, go ahead. I am
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: gonna go with Indianapolis Colts minus two over the Atlanta Falcons. Wow. Nice. Yeah.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: I like the other side and that one, but not
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: enough to make it a play. I'm gonna take seven
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: points with with the Lions. I think I agree with
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: you on not a believer in the Eagles. That was
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: my next bet. That was the next thing I was
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: gonna bet was that that was gonna be my next one.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: So I like that choice too. All right, Bob Scucci,
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: thank you for coming on your podcast. Don't forget You
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: can listen to Scooch and I go through every game
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: from the wise guy perspective, the money percentage, the betting
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: ticket percentage, the line move percentage. At noon Eastern on Sundays,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: listen to the radio dot com. Excuse me, just to
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: have lunch. Radio dot com, app radio dot com. Coming
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: up next, Dan Ravelle is gonna sit with me. We're
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: gonna try to choose five games for the one point
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: five million Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest. Simon Hunter Professional
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Better is gonna grade us, guide us, cajole us into
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: making better decisions than we plan on making. Scooch talk
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: to you later. Alright, Chad, take care of body. Alright,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: we're back. It's time to pick some games to win
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: one point five million dollars. Darren and I are six
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: and four right now, Um, which is a pretty good
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: start if you want to finish in the money. And
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter Professional Gambler, it's going to come out on
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit and help us continue our winning ways. Um, Daren,
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: we're gonna bring a little more structure to the segment
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: this week. Uh, I am going to guess the games
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: that you are most likely to be Okay, do I
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: do the same for you, and then you're gonna do
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: the same for me. And then Simon is going to
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: join us with his leans and uh, we're gonna see
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: if we can find matches. Okay, so you pick the
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: most public games possible. Yes, I think you were going
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: to take the Chiefs minus seven. I think you're going
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: to take New England minus twenty two and a half.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna take Dallas minus twenty one and
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: a half. And I think you're gonna take Tampa Bay
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: as more than a touchdown favorite against Daniel Jones and
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: the New York Giants. I believe that's four. And I
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: think you're gonna take um, uh, Green Bay minus nine
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: against Denver. I think that was probably as bad as
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: you could do. Um, you got one? Which one? Cowboys?
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: The Dolphins are just that bad. They have no Listen,
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: the Jets do have who knows how good the Browns
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: really are, but the Jets do have something resembling a defense.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: The Dolphins do not. The Cowboys are we're at home
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: here twenty one and I don't like the half. The
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: half is very bad, But twenty one and a half Cowboys?
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: I you you know I I profited from the seventeen
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: and a half then became eighteen and a half. No problem.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: So hold on, do I get a on? Darren? I
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: am very impressed with how you got us to better
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: the Patriots. Um. That was the game that put us
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: over the edge and made us over five hundred for
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: the week. It was it was a big game. So
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: am I going now you or do I do my
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Now give me the rest of your picks. Okay, so
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: I can judge you. I like the Ravens side of
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. So the plus seven or the plus six
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: and a half on the Ravens. Um, I stay away
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: from me. That is a stay away again? Okay, All right,
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: Well that I'm just giving you that. So I actually
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: liked that. Um. I then like, um, Arizona plus two
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: and a half against Carolina. I don't think they're that
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: I do not. I think they're gonna I think I
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: had moneyline this thing. I think Arizona is gonna win
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: this game. Um. Wow, that is really interesting. I don't
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're that bad. I am doing the
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: whole thing that betters do, which is to make stuff up,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: which is that I think Kyler Murray's getting a custom. Um,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: and I think Arizona is gonna win that game out right,
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: So I would take that. Are you saying there's virdo
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: science behind what we there there there is there's convincing
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: their psychological mess. Uh. I am taking and I've heard
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: you guys talk, uh, scooch. I am taking Seattle minus
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: four and a half against the Saints, UM, and I
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: would take I do not think I think the Jets
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: have a good defense, but I don't think their defense
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: is that good. And I don't think the Browns had
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: that convincing of a performance their first week performance, so
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: I thought was awful. And I think the Chargers are
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: going to smoke them out of the Rams. Sorry, you're
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: gonna smoke them out of the water. The Ms minus three,
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: that's my Rams minus three is my number one pick.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: I don't want you to move from that if possible. Wow,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: okay you like so your picks are Rams minus three,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Seattle minus four and a half, Arizona plus two and
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: a half, Ravens plus seven. UM, I should say who
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: they're playing. Rauns minus three over the Browns, Seattle minus
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: four and a half against against the Saints, Arizona plus
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: two and a half at home against Carolina, Ravens plus
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: seven on the road against the Chiefs. Dallas minus twenty
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: one and a half over the Miami Dolphins. Those are
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: my five. All right, let's start with what I love. Uh,
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: I'm with you on the Rams love that pick Rams
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: minus three. Book it you said it's your number one.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: I agree. Love the Cardinals plus two and have love him. Uh.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: I also want the Colts minus two. Um, I want
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: the Colts minus two against Carolina, and I want the
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: Lions the Colts. No, what did I the Colts against
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: the Falcons. Oh yeah, that's right. Sorry, Colts against the
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Falcons and m minus two. The Colts are two point favorite. Yep, yep,
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: that's what that means. And then I also like, um,
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: Detroit plus seven against Philadelphia. Philadelphia is one of those teams.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: I still don't know who they are, I do. I
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: don't think they're I don't. I think they're overrated. I
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: think they're probably overrated. But I think about Philadelphia and
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: I think Cartson Wentz and I kind of overcompensate for
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: how bad they are and think they're better than they are.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: So potentially you're right there. What's the line on that one? Seven?
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: It's a lot of points. It's a lot of points.
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: I like that. Then I like I like that game
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: that let's book that game the Lions. All right, so
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: we're seven were agreed on Cardon plus two and a half.
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: We're agreed on lines plus seven. We're agreed on Rams
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: minus three. UM, I like the Colts minus two. You
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: haven't weighed in on that. I definitely don't like the
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Ravens plus seven. I don't. I don't feel. I don't
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: feel either way on the call. I'd like to not
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: take that pick. I I like the you said I
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: was gonna take him, right. I do like the Boxes
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites over the Giants. I
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: do like the Bills as six point favorites over the Bengals,
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: and you're I'm not going to take the Jets. Wait,
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: we screwed up this segment. You were supposed to guess
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: what games I like? I know? Do you what you
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: want to know? Though? I don't really like? UM, I
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: could I could see you really liking that Colts matchup.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: That's something that you would do, so the Colts Atlanta.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: I thought that you would you would do that one. UM,
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: I think you would like the too big of a
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: line on the on the Vikings Raiders for you? You You don't.
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: You don't like those big lines there? Um would you
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: do six? And I think you might have done six
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: and a half? Uh forty Niners over Steelers. I thought
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: about it. Yeah, and then uh and then um, I
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: think you probably like the the Seattle line four and
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: a half over the Saints. No, you're wrong. Uh, my
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: five picks that I like our Colts minus two, Cardinals
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: plus two and a half lines plus seven, Rams minus
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: three and then Texans plus three on the road at
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. But you know what it's time to do.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: Let's introduce Mr Simon Hunter. And now a word from
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: a wise guy? Would Simon Hunter? How about and now
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: deep thoughts by Jack Handy? I mean, Simon Hunter, Simon,
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: what did you think of your introduction? Wow? What an honor? Boys?
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: Did you know it was coming? Probably I was in
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: the Middle Ages. I bet you didn't know that was coming,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: did you? Uh? Definitely unexpected how to take it yet?
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: But I think I like it. That's what you get
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: when we're really excited going into week three. You might
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: you might not have an introduction next week. I mean,
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: do you guys want to do a British accent podcast?
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: If that's what we need me to do a British
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: accent saw him in Onto, so listen, so listen. Uh.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, who was one of the proachers of the podcast,
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: had a great note for us, which was you as
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: a professional better actually approach what you do in the
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: condo and the super contest. And you're in Super Contest Gold,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: which is sort of the high end contest, and then
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: you're in Super Contest mass Media, which is us um
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: a little bit differently, and so tell us about your
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: leans based on Super Contest for philosophy, um and strategy
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: and then in uh, I want to mix that into
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: our picks and see if we can come to a consensus.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah are you talking. You're asking me what what I'm
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: doing this week for Gold? Yeah, well tell me, tell
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: me your leans, like as a super contest player, not
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: just as a better but as a super contest player, right,
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: this kind of thing, Um, well, you have to approach
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: both super contests differently. Um, Like a lot of people
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: are going to get done. But um, I think there's
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: fourteen of us end up taking the Jets the plus
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: two and a half in the Gold. Um. I think
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: right Angles Sports, they're nine and one in Gold and
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: they're winning it. I think they're loss they're only losses
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: on the Jets. So there's other groups out there that
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: do the same mentality where we try to fade the
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: other people in gold. Um, so like this week just
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: looking at the lines, like, I think good fades would
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: probably be like New Orleans, I mean not Nowlans. The
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Rams are a good fade. I think a good one
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: will be the Chargers. Um. But the goal it was
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: kind of weird this week in the sense that a
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: lot of a lot of them took favorites. Um, they're
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: pretty sharp on that. It was a good week for
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: taking road road favorites. Uh, it's been a wonky year.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: I think it's like road road favorites are covering and
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: unders are really big right now. Unders are big. I
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: I had two beautiful unders this this past weekend. It
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: is a weird year, though, You're right signing like some
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: rules will be broken. I mean I told you that
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: Patriots one was a prime example of the rule is broken.
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: One like that that should not work out for like
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: like when Darren sided free money. Whenever you hear someone
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: say free money, you're not gonna win that bat. This
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: year has been really weird where you say that. With
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: the Patriots game, people said that Cleveland and I mean
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: that game would have went different honestly if he honestly
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: didn't break his ankle. We'll never know. You just keep dropping.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: By the way, A cool note um from David Purdham,
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: which is that, uh, this is the first time since
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Week five of the seven season that we've had to
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: think that's probably a gold cheat note the two two
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: uh favorites of more than twenty and that was the
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: eight that was, of course the replacement season. Yeah, yeah,
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: which which I can't imagine betting and can you imagine
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: betting in that year? Like I feel like you don't
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: know anything, but yes, so that's kind of interesting. So simon,
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: without giving away what your card is going to be
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: for the super contest, give me your leans for the
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: contest based on and think about the mass contest, not
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: the Gold contest. Uh, And then let me see if
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: I can find the intersection between your leans and the
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: picks Darren and I have and we can come to
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: the consensus that makes uh, that makes you deliver on
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: your promise to help us finishing the money. Yeah, well
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: I did. I did, like Carolina against the Cardinals, but
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: that one's obviously out with Camp, So I don't know
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: what that line is gonna be. It's I think it's
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: probably gonna open reopen, or Cardinals minus one or minus two. Um,
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: so I would honestly take Cardinals on that side now
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: just because I think it's I'm pretty sure it's Will Greer,
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: the w kid is their backup in Carolina, So I
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: mean he's a big downgrade. I know Cam doesn't look
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: good this year, and obviously he's coming off injuries, but
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: Cam still he wasn't m VP. He's a great, great player.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: Um well, Greer is a little bit of the unknown.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: So I do like the Cardinals now in that one. Um,
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: I told you another one I really like, I'm leaning
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: with as the Rams uh India is another big lean
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: like I feel back. I keep taking them every week
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: and it keeps hitting. It's it's due not to hit.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: But um that's just a all the numbers everything points
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: to that being a good one. With Indie, Well, explain,
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: explain why on the Rams and on Indie what? What is?
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: What are your numbers showing you the Rams? The Rams
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: one is a funny game where they they honestly didn't
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: look good. They needed to get hit in the mouth
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: there for New Orleans to kind of wake up. They
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: got that lucky blown call on. I'll never get over
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: the fact that rest On Swaller ref like their ref uh,
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, how do you blow the whistle in that
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: that game? But that that happens it feels like every
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: other week, So there's no point. It's the playing about it.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: But the Saints fans, by the way, I know three
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Saints fans, I all got the text did you see
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: this video? And asking me as if it was like
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: a public service, can you tweet this out? So that
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: I would use my audience to potentially get to, like
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know, the head of referees like that, I
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: would do something these people seriously, I get I get
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: their complaints, so like they're it feels like every week
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: they're having weird calls and like like everything in their
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: games has something come down with the referee in it.
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: Even the week before something like weird things happened the
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: reft of them. So I mean that that that obviously
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: drew reasons or for them change the whole game. So
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: I would go to take credit for really liking Rams
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: last week, But but what what about the Rams? Uh
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: and Indie both just what are your numbers showing you?
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: What is it saying about the matchup and what is
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: it saying about where they are right now. Right. So
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: with the Rams, I still think it's a Super Bowl
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: hangover there going through, but I think they looked like
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: they got out of it, like their their receivers are
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: really stepping it up. So I had this game when
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: I put it in at Ram's mind of seven in Cleveland,
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: which is a pretty big number, and then I think
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: it opened at um Cleveland plus one, and then the
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: public and the Sharps shitted up to three. So it's
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: one of those spots where now Vegas needs Cleveland. So
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: I do I like Rams, and I know that these
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: these guys in Gold they're gonna be on Cleveland. Cleveland's
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: a really sharp number this week. And the Indie game
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: is it's classic. Everyone saw Land on Sunday night win
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: a big game, and in Indianapolis they didn't play great
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: against the Titans, but it was a divisional game where
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: you're just you're trying to survive. That was a slug
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: it out match. That's why I thought the three was
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: a good number, because I didn't see either team winning
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: by more than a field goal. But the Colts now
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: are still kind of being slipped on this line. I
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: don't know why. I didn't open that minus three, So
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: I think you're getting really good value where it's at
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: one and a half two right now, Darren, I think
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: uh Simon professional better has so far confirmed for US Cardinals,
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: Rams and Cults. I like it. The culture. Yeah, the
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: Coults is the one that I, um, I don't know.
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: I'm just not my my Joe que public mind. I
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: haven't seen enough from the Colts. But I trust Chad
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: here and I trust you and we're going with that.
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: But Arizona, for sure, I'm gonna bet the money line
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: on that game. Um. And then and then the Rams
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: popped out to me too, having maybe its recency bias,
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: having suffer through the complete Monday night football game in
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: person or god? Yeah right, um? Who are your other leans?
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: Where should we be? Uh? Where should be contemplating? How
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: can I give you Dallas Dallas twenty one and a half?
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: What do you think about that? Dallas free money? Every week?
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: Every week? There can we just go against my en?
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know about keep doing it every week? But
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: every every they just got rid of their second best defender.
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: Um because I loved I love New England last week,
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: just because I had it at a forty one to
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: ten a game. That's what my system told me. So
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: I was like that, honestly, would never let you take
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: these kind of fervorts. But this year is bizarre. This
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: is the weirdest year. So are you letting? Are you
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: letting me and thus us take twenty one and a half?
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: When we put that, when we put that as a
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: lean like, maybe I think we can maybe we can
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: find a better, better Joe pub favorite for you? What
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: do you what is your numbers say on Dallas? I
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: so last week there was three games where it was
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: proven proven to me team games. So the Chiefs was
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: a previous to me game where they're in Oakland, and
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: it was kind of game where the Sharps arena in
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: Oakland and all the publics in Kansas City looking at
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: like an easy number, and the Chiefs showed up. They
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: won that and the Cowboys they shouldn't have covered that
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: number against Washington, like that's how averages. Average teams just
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: maybe squeaked by the game, loses by a couple of points,
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: and Dallas really showed up and put their will. I
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: think it was in the second quarter that kind of
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: woke up and just dominated Washington. The whole game. So
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: I I do. I do think that it's a good
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: number because I have them winning by twenty. But it's
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: the kind of thing where it's just one little fluke
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: touchdown the end of the game if we don't cover
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: that number. That's why people hate taking numbers this big.
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: Can I ask you two questions, how horrible as a
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: as a lay better here? How horrible is that point five?
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: It's horrible, um, just because the odds go way against
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: you if you look at all the numbers. I mean,
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: but once again, you can't. There's nothing like this to
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: use numbers with. It's just it's they're anomalies. It's does
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: it does not make sense. There's two people we're looking at,
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: two teams. I have a couple of books show in
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: New England three right now mine isy. Um, So it's
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: just a weird, weird thing where cowboys or minus twenty
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: one and a half. It might jump up with the
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: the book might feel comfortable and to sit there, but
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: the public is just pounding the cowboys again like Vegas
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: isn't here just to give money away? And then, um,
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: I do I do like it, but I mean I'm
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: kind of with Chad there it's not a smart play.
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: Like over the numbers, the averages, it shouldn't work out
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: for us, but it's my numbers are telling us telling
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: me that we should take that else. All right, well
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: let's let's leave it there for now. UM, give me
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: two other leans right now, I mean the the sharp
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: The sharp Leans are definitely gonna be able sinse Yet
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking since you might be of these teams, that's exact.
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: They're They're bad one week, good the next week. But
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: I'm not playing them Super Contest because I can't. I
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: can't do it again with Andy Dalton Buffalo. Buffalo's defense
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: looks like they're pretty pretty good up front. With Andy Dalton,
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: they're running the Bengals running Game two. We are never
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: betting Andy Dalton in this contest. You're done with them.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: I can see that. Um, and then another. Uh. I
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: don't like doing Thursday Nights and super contests. The jobs
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: the Jacks. The Jacks really stick out. I am totally
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: going to bet the Jacks, but we're not doing them
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: in the Super Contest because it's it's it's one of
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: those games where I don't like doing Thursday because they're
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: very unpredictable. You don't know what team like it's feeling
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: good after their rough Sunday games. What do you think?
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: What do you think about? Like? I do like the Chargers.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: All right, No, all right, that's interesting. They're probably the
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: last one that would come in because why do you
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: like to host? I like, I'd like that they had
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: an ugly loss on the road. They're coming home, and
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: Houston had an ugly win at home against the divisional team.
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: Now they're going on the road. So I got this
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Chargers minus six and a half. So you're getting a
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: free three and a half points right now. But I
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: think it's been shooting up charges minus three and a
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: half and down to three. I like to close that
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: three and a half. I wouldn't take it, okay, but
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: I do like I do like the charges that three
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: for just playing it safe. I like the charges of
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: three two. You know what I think we should do?
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: Here's what I'm gonna do. Tell me that you want
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: the lines of plus seven? Um, it's a trap. It
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: feels like a trap game with this lines number because
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: I immediately saw that number seven a half and I
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: took it. And then the public has kind of been
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: hitting the lines too. I don't really like UM. I
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: don't like being on the same like I don't like
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: public dogs. I mean they do work out. Like last week,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals were a good public dog, like they they
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: might have not covered that number the Ravens just scored.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: The touchdown would have been a push, But the Cardinals
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: were the right side to that whole game last week. UM,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: and they were a big public dog, but the lines
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: they just gotta win at home that day honestly didn't
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: deserve UM. And they're going against the Eagles team that
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: got kind of embarrassed and their whole teams banged up
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: on a Sunday night, So they're looking at a team
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be We're not looking for revenge, but they're
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: gonna be really piste off the Eagles. So I'd stay
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: away from that one. As here's what I think we
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: should do. Can you just talk about the Super Contest
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: and how we submit our picks and how the lines work,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: just just to remind you, like we're doing this on
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: Tuesday afternoon. The lines with the Super Contest come out
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: Wednesday night, and so they get adjusted a little bit
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: between what we're looking at now and exactly someone might
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: get mono, so they change a little bit. Um, here's
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: what I think I want to do. I'm gonna give
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: Darren what he wants. We're gonna we're gonna see what
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: Dallas looks like. If that is a good play, we'll
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: play Dallas. If if it's not, we're gonna play the
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: lines of plus seven. But we're also gonna play the
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: Chargers at minus three, and so I think our I
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: think our bets are gonna be Cardinals. What it reopens
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: out probably minus one Colts minus two Rams minus three,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: Chargers minus three. My god, we're going with all favorites
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: and then either the Lines plus seven or the Cowboys
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: plus twenty one and a half and the cow The
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: Cowboys would be contingent on the half. I think I'm
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: willing to let the Cowboys go. If I don't get
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: that down to we will, we will tell Exton, we
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: will reconvene. I won't pull the trigger. I don't like
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: that half. I really don't good because I definitely like
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: last week, Um, after the after we did the bank
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: as a good, wow, did we really just take Andy Dalton?
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: Like after we hung up, I was like, I don't
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: know if that was a fess what we should have
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: just done. Never we're just taking five games. We don't
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: need to force any kind of game. We're just picking
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: five games. Never again, Simon, never again. That's all I
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: have to say about that, Simon Hunter. Professional gambler, damn revels,
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: not professional gambler. These are gonna be our super contest picks.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: Let's see if we continue the streak three and two,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: three and two, six and four for the year, that's
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: pretty good numbers. That ends us in the money. Talk
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: about the money, money, money, Simon Hunter, thanks for coming out.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed your your Godfather like theme music.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, very really appreciate the intro boys. Always a pleasure.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: I have a good feeling this. I don't know about
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Darren's side. Darren's make me nervous. You're getting a little
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: sharp with his cardinal picks. But we'll see how when
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: the public guy goes sharp, I mean that's the time
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: they get out. It also means it's not too hard.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: It's not too hard to figure out what sharp is
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: and what sharp is in this business. Alright, Simon, thank
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: you brother, all right, thanks guys, with a pleasure. This
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: has been the favorites from the Action Network. Download at
• 1:03:25
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• 1:03:29
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• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: Until next time, I Love you, Love you,