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Gold Rallies as AI Earnings Outpace Trade Wars · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Welcome back to Spy Trader .
• 0:02
  I'm your host , Chip Stonkwell , and it's 6 am on Thursday , October 16th , 2025 , Pacific time .
• 0:09
  We are starting the morning with US futures pointing higher , showing remarkable resilience .
• 0:15
  The core takeaway today is that stellar corporate earnings , particularly in tech , are successfully outweighing serious political and geopolitical noise , including a confirmed trade war and a threeweek government shutdown .
• 0:28
  Now , let’s get into the news .
• 0:30
  The earnings season is driving upside momentum , particularly for two key sectors : Information Technology and Financials .
• 0:38
  On the tech front , the AI narrative remains explosive .
• 0:42
  Taiwan Semiconductor , or TSMC , the bellwether for the chip industry , posted a stunning 40% surge in its Q3 profit and raised its 2025 revenue forecast significantly .
• 0:55
  This immediately lifted related stocks like Nvidia , which gained over one percent premarket .
• 1:01
  Not to be outdone , enterprise software giant Salesforce surged 6% premarket after projecting immense confidence , setting a target of over sixty billion dollars in revenue by 2030 .
• 1:14
  In financials , major banks like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have continued to deliver betterthanexpected Q3 earnings , signaling a healthy US consumer and robust wealth management .
• 1:27
  However , we have strong headwinds .
• 1:30
  The primary risk remains the USChina trade war , which President Trump has confirmed is underway .
• 1:37
  This is compounded by his threat of an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1st .
• 1:44
  Domestically , the ongoing government shutdown is creating a data void , delaying key releases like CPI and retail sales , which complicates the Federal Reserve’s job .
• 1:56
  We also saw some specific weakness , with Hewlett Packard Enterprise , HPE , sinking 8% premarket after cutting its longterm guidance .
• 2:06
  The market analysis shows that this AIled growth boom is strong enough to look past the political risks .
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  But there are complications .
• 2:13
  The Fed’s Beige Book suggests the US economy’s momentum is slowing , solidifying expectations for further interestrate cuts this year , pushing the 10year Treasury yield toward 4.028% .
• 2:28
  This expectation , combined with the trade uncertainty , has driven Gold prices to a new record high , currently near four thousand two hundred thirtyfour dollars per ounce , as investors seek a safe haven .
• 2:40
  So , what’s the trade ?
• 2:42
  First , you must stay long on the AIdriven tech trend .
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  The fundamental demand is confirmed by TSMC and Salesforce .
• 2:50
  We recommend maintaining a core position in the Invesco QQQ Trust , QQQ , for broad tech exposure .
• 2:58
  For focused highgrowth exposure , look at Nvidia or Salesforce , CRM .
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  Second , harvest gains from Financials but maintain core exposure .
• 3:08
  The banks are healthy , but future growth might moderate with slowing economic activity .
• 3:13
  The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLF , or a stock like Bank of America , BAC , is suitable for a stable , marketperform position .
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  Third , you must hedge against the geopolitical uncertainty .
• 3:28
  With trade wars and government shutdowns , volatility is high .
• 3:32
  We recommend a strategic allocation to SPDR Gold Shares , GLD , to capture the upside of the safehaven trade .
• 3:40
  Finally , keep your foundation solid .
• 3:42
  The S&P 500 is making new highs , so a core holding in a broad ETF like Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , VOO , is essential to mirror the overall market's resilience .
• 3:56
  That's it for this morning's Spy Trader .
• 3:59
  Good luck out there , and I’ll catch you next time .