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US Factory Activity Nears Stagnation, Trump Tariffs · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
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  Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
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  Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: We want to get to this economic data. ISM manufacturing
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: data came out. We're looking at the fifty point three.
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  Speaker 2: The consensus was fifty point seven, so a little bit
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  Speaker 2: weaker there. New orders kind of interesting. Consensus was fifty
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  Speaker 2: four point six. Came at forty eight point six, so
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  Speaker 2: a big miss there. Tim Fury joins his chairman of
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  Speaker 2: the Manufacturing Business Survey for the Institute for Supply Management, Tim,
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  Speaker 2: what do you make of this ISM data coming out
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  Speaker 2: here on our Manufacturing Buddies by Hi Paul Hilo.
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  Speaker 3: So hey, I think the real story here, let's get
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  Speaker 3: right to it, is the prices number sixty two points four.
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  Speaker 3: We're up seven point five points, and you know in
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  Speaker 3: December and January we had some price growth too. We
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  Speaker 3: really were putting our prices then for the twenty twenty
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  Speaker 3: five economic year, for the delivery year.
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  Speaker 4: So there's really no reason for this number to go
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  Speaker 4: up so high, except for the fact that.
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  Speaker 3: As soon as terifts were announced on the lunium and steel,
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  Speaker 3: the spot market immediately jumped up twenty percent. Now, our
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  Speaker 3: sixty two point four number is a measurement really.
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  Speaker 4: Of why the lake is, not how deep it is.
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  Speaker 3: So what this is really saying is a lot of
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  Speaker 3: companies were impacted by the stealing lunum increase that was
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  Speaker 3: almost immediate and had to carry over factor I think
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  Speaker 3: on what's happening in a new order level, because it's
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  Speaker 3: essentially frozen people from placing orders because suppliers and sellers
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  Speaker 3: are arguing amongst themselves about who's going to pay for this. Then,
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  Speaker 3: on top of that, the inventory number grew in part
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  Speaker 3: because of the Chinese lunar New Year materials being delivered,
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  Speaker 3: but also because people were pulling forward material in anticipation
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  Speaker 3: of tariffs. And then your supplier delivery number went up too,
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  Speaker 3: in part because suppliers may be refusing to deliver until
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  Speaker 3: customers agree to pay the increased costs. So you know, overall,
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  Speaker 3: this is the fifty point three look pretty good, But to.
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  Speaker 4: Gut to this doesn't look pretty good.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, if you had if you had a stable input
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  Speaker 3: number Stummer wouldn't been in the forty eight range, so wow.
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  Speaker 5: Okay.
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  Speaker 6: Also, the employment number dipped significantly as well. I felt
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  Speaker 6: like the narrative before it was that we weren't seeing layoffs,
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  Speaker 6: but we weren't seeing hiring. Has that now changed?
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  Speaker 4: No, you're well, you're exactly right.
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  Speaker 3: We're continuing on the same cycle that we've been for
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  Speaker 3: the last three or four months. I think what's happening
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  Speaker 3: here is in the absence of some confidence that we're
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  Speaker 3: going to start to grow here and not have a burp.
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  Speaker 3: You know this, This does not support another rate cut.
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  Speaker 3: I think what's happening is people are continuing to release people,
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  Speaker 3: but they're not doing it so much. Alex's time on layoffs.
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  Speaker 3: It's more about attrition and freezes.
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  Speaker 4: So they're not overreacting here, but they are.
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  Speaker 3: Deciding that, well, let's continue to d staff. You're a slightly,
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  Speaker 3: but we're not going to use a layoff activity. We're
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  Speaker 3: just going to freeze and we're going to trip down
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  Speaker 3: until the environment becomes clearer.
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  Speaker 2: All right, Tim, thanks so much for joining us. Really
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  Speaker 2: appreciate it. Tim Furrey, he's the chairman of the Manufacturing
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  Speaker 2: Business Survey at the Institute for Supply Management. Smart kids
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  Speaker 2: call it IM. This may be, I guess, kind of
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  Speaker 2: one of the first concrete data points that will point
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  Speaker 2: back to us about the potential impact of some of
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: these tariff discussions on actual manufacturing activities. So we'll keep
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  Speaker 2: that in mind.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
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  Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
• 3:44
  Speaker 6: Josh Wingrove is joining us Bloomberg Senior White House Reporter.
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  Speaker 6: He joins us now in the White House lawn. Hey, Josh,
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  Speaker 6: good to chat with you. We're clearly waiting for these
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  Speaker 6: tariffs to be put into effect tomorrow. My question, though,
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  Speaker 6: is how sensitive do you think the administration currently is
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  Speaker 6: to the market, which is saying some thing a little
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  Speaker 6: different than maybe we were expecting, say, four months ago.
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  Speaker 7: Yeah. I think that that is seen as the sort
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  Speaker 7: of one true guard rail that President Trump pays attention to.
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  Speaker 4: Now.
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  Speaker 7: That said, many of his aides have been saying, look like,
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  Speaker 7: in the first term, we did a lot of tariffs
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  Speaker 7: and things didn't really you know, go sideways. Although you
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  Speaker 7: know inde bend anailists will tell you there was a
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  Speaker 7: lot of sort of weakness periodically on the underrelly of
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  Speaker 7: the economy in the first term. The big question right
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  Speaker 7: now is, you know, is this all a bluff? And
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  Speaker 7: remember this is only one stream of tariffs, and if
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  Speaker 7: you've been having trouble keeping the plot, not that any
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  Speaker 7: of us have, obviously, but it would be understandable because
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  Speaker 7: you've got these ones. You've got ones next week on
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  Speaker 7: steel and aluminum, which by the way, would hit Canada
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  Speaker 7: and Mexico pretty hard, regardless of whether there's another delay
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  Speaker 7: tonight or not. And then of course in April you
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  Speaker 7: have not only the sectoral tariffs on autos, maybe lumber,
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  Speaker 7: maybe chips, maybe pharmaceutical drugs, all of which could hit
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  Speaker 7: Canada and or Mexico pretty hard. And and those other
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  Speaker 7: dare so so called reciprocal tariffs that would be on
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  Speaker 7: a country back country basis, including of course maybe Canada,
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  Speaker 7: Mexico and China on top of whatever does or does
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  Speaker 7: not happen tonight. So things are coming down multiple paths,
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  Speaker 7: and there's been going to be a lot of focus
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  Speaker 7: of course, to I know, whether these go in or not.
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  Speaker 7: It's you know, a bit unusual that we're sitting here.
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  Speaker 7: We don't know. A month ago we were in the
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  Speaker 7: same position of what happened. There were calls between President
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  Speaker 7: Trump and President Shinbaum in Mexico and Prime Minister Trudeau
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  Speaker 7: in Canada, who only has a few days left or
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  Speaker 7: so as Prime minister. We don't know right now whether
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  Speaker 7: those calls are on tap. That would do one thing
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  Speaker 7: to look for today as a signal of whether there'll
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  Speaker 7: be another deferral. Remember, of course, the China tariffs also
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  Speaker 7: could be doubled from ten to twenty percent today. No
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  Speaker 7: real sign of any indication that that would be put off.
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  Speaker 7: So you know, these things could all move into Pendley.
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  Speaker 7: It's maybe not all, sort of all three or none.
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  Speaker 2: Josh, We're going to hear from President Trump addressing the
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  Speaker 2: Joint Session of Congress tomorrow evening any preview there. What's
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  Speaker 2: kind of the agenda.
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  Speaker 7: I mean, he wants to take a victory lab he
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  Speaker 7: wants to talk about the things that they've done in
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  Speaker 7: the first month. I think we're going to talk about
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  Speaker 7: the border that is context for the tariffs, and really
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  Speaker 7: it's kind of an eye the beholder, think on how
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  Speaker 7: you choose to read that. He's been, you know, tweeting
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  Speaker 7: or posting about border numbers coming way down. Of course,
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  Speaker 7: the border is the justification for some of these tariffs,
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  Speaker 7: so you know he'll either be there to say, look,
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  Speaker 7: I just dropped tariffs on a trillion and a half
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  Speaker 7: in goods, and you know, here we are and we're
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  Speaker 7: into a trade fight now, or he can declare victory
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  Speaker 7: on the border. Maybe that gives him a window to
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  Speaker 7: defer at least some of these terraffs. But other than that,
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  Speaker 7: I think we'll hear a lot about the border. We're
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  Speaker 7: going to hear a lot about, of course, America first messaging.
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  Speaker 7: The backdrop of that, of course, will be the fallout
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  Speaker 7: from last Friday and the ongoing question of what will
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  Speaker 7: happen in Ukraine, Will there be a minerals deal? These
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  Speaker 7: are all just swirling in the air. So you know,
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  Speaker 7: Trump is a showman at heart, so I think a
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  Speaker 7: lot of this will be pomp and show and circumstance.
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  Speaker 7: Of course, he wants to point to what he's done,
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  Speaker 7: but there are questions, huge questions swirling about what comes next.
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  Speaker 6: So what's the off ramp?
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  Speaker 5: For the tariffs is.
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  Speaker 7: If Trump decides that Mexico and Canada in particular have
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  Speaker 7: done enough on the border, then he might defer them.
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  Speaker 7: Secretary Besson, of course, has talked about maybe reciprocal. That's
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  Speaker 7: maybe a bad word to choose, because we're reasoning another
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  Speaker 7: thing matching tariffs on China that Mexico and Canada have
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  Speaker 7: either talked about or in some cases already done. So
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  Speaker 7: that's been a bit of a puzzler. He's sort of
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  Speaker 7: asking for stuff that's already out the door. And if
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  Speaker 7: they can get sort of this Fortress North America type
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  Speaker 7: of idea into President Trump's sort of, you know, get
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  Speaker 7: his buy in on it, then maybe there's a deferral.
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  Speaker 7: We also don't know that these will move at the
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  Speaker 7: same time. Remember a month ago Mexico was deferred before
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  Speaker 7: Canada was. Trudeau and Trump had two calls. Trump has
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  Speaker 7: been very critical of Trudeau. So right now we don't
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  Speaker 7: know if anyone or all three will again move as one.
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  Speaker 7: I think this is a really important point. The way
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  Speaker 7: they've technically done it is by doing separate executive orders,
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  Speaker 7: so they can pull in punt and you adjust on
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  Speaker 7: the fly. One other quick thing to flag is last
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  Speaker 7: night they tweaked the can of their Mexico ones. It
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  Speaker 7: is either a signal that they plan to proceed or
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  Speaker 7: at least a signal that they want to be seen
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  Speaker 7: as threatening to plan to proceed with these terrats. And
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  Speaker 7: what it did is tweak some of the rules on
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  Speaker 7: deminimus change, which affects parcelshipping, basically punting that until they
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  Speaker 7: can figure out a way to collect terrafts from either
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  Speaker 7: individual retailers or mom and pop shipping things across the border.
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  Speaker 7: And so that is a if they're fine tuning, that
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  Speaker 7: suggests that they're at least holding open the option to
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  Speaker 7: go ahead with these terrats, if not planning to do
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  Speaker 7: so explicitly.
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  Speaker 6: I mean, in the meantime, President Trump, I'll be speaking
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  Speaker 6: later on today. He hinted that there'll be some economic
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  Speaker 6: policy rolled out. The Wall Street Journal now reporting that
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  Speaker 6: a TSMC is expected to announce one hundred billion dollar
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  Speaker 6: investment in the US for chip making facilities. You like,
• 8:45
  Speaker 6: twenty seconds. Is this the kind of thing we can
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  Speaker 6: expect now at one o'clock.
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  Speaker 7: I mean, I will defer to my friends of the
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  Speaker 7: journal if they're reporting that Trump has loved to make
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  Speaker 7: these announcement big numbers. I will say, until now, the
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  Speaker 7: numbers have not always withstood the full life of day
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  Speaker 7: when you dig into the details. So we'll be looking
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  Speaker 7: for those details today.
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  Speaker 6: Well, so Josh appreciate that. Josh Winning Grow Bloomberg Senior
• 9:06
  Speaker 6: White House reporter and Bloomberg. Of course, we'll be bringing
• 9:09
  Speaker 6: you that live later on this afternoon. The Journal reporting
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  Speaker 6: that TSMC expected to announce one hundred billion dollars in
• 9:15
  Speaker 6: investment in the US.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 9:22
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• 9:25
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• 9:28
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• 9:33
  Speaker 6: All right, The other stock on the move is Kroger.
• 9:35
  Speaker 6: That stock down over one percent. Apparently the CEO resigns
• 9:39
  Speaker 6: over quote, personal conduct after a board probe. Want to
• 9:43
  Speaker 6: get more on this with Jaywon Kong, Bloomberg retail reporter
• 9:46
  Speaker 6: joining us. Do we know Jaywon what this personal conduct was?
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  Speaker 5: We do not. It's pretty limited. You know what we
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  Speaker 5: know right now?
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  Speaker 8: We know that the CEO resigned after the the board
• 10:00
  Speaker 8: conducted an investigation into his personal conduct. We know that
• 10:05
  Speaker 8: it was a personal conduct and that the behavior did
• 10:08
  Speaker 8: not involve the company's operations, but that it was inconsistent
• 10:12
  Speaker 8: with their policy on business ethics. So now you know
• 10:18
  Speaker 8: Brodney mcmull and he's resigned effective immediately. And Braun Sergeant,
• 10:23
  Speaker 8: who's been on the board of the company for almost
• 10:26
  Speaker 8: twenty years, he'll serve as in terms CEO.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: So how important is this CEO that did resign, mister McMullan,
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  Speaker 2: How important he has he has he been to the story.
• 10:40
  Speaker 8: He's been in his role for you know, over a decade,
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  Speaker 8: and he's you know, led the company through really important moments,
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  Speaker 8: whether it's you know, really getting into the e commerce business,
• 10:53
  Speaker 8: led the company through the pandemic, you know, the period
• 10:57
  Speaker 8: of historic inflation that we've lived through, and most recently,
• 11:01
  Speaker 8: he tried to merge with Albertson's in what could have
• 11:07
  Speaker 8: been the biggest grocery deal in in the US and
• 11:10
  Speaker 8: history of course.
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  Speaker 5: That you know did not come through after the government
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  Speaker 5: blocked it.
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  Speaker 8: But he's, you know, someone that's been at the Helm
• 11:19
  Speaker 8: for for quite a while after a long tenure at
• 11:22
  Speaker 8: the company, and is someone yeah that's you know what
• 11:27
  Speaker 8: the company through a lot of important moments.
• 11:30
  Speaker 6: How's Kroger doing otherwise? Did we just take that away
• 11:32
  Speaker 6: for a second. What's it like to uh be in
• 11:35
  Speaker 6: Kroger business right now?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, So.
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  Speaker 8: It's you know, the company did really well during the
• 11:43
  Speaker 8: pandemic and inflation, like a lot of its other peers
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  Speaker 8: in the retail business. That growth has started to moderate,
• 11:50
  Speaker 8: partly as people.
• 11:51
  Speaker 5: Look to save money.
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  Speaker 8: And you know, as we talked about the Albertson's deal,
• 11:56
  Speaker 8: that had been sort of an overhang on on the company,
• 12:00
  Speaker 8: you for the last few years as they tried to merge,
• 12:05
  Speaker 8: you know, and then that deal about blocked by.
• 12:06
  Speaker 5: D f TC.
• 12:07
  Speaker 8: They had to go to court to defend it, and
• 12:10
  Speaker 8: we know the result now, which is that it didn't
• 12:13
  Speaker 8: you know, go through. But that's been you know, a
• 12:16
  Speaker 8: bit of a distraction for for quite a while. And
• 12:20
  Speaker 8: on top of that, the management team is also pretty new.
• 12:24
  Speaker 8: The CFO left last year and joined a competitor at Costco.
• 12:30
  Speaker 8: The chief merchant, which is of course a really important
• 12:32
  Speaker 8: role in the retail business. He also left at the
• 12:35
  Speaker 8: end of last year for a different opportunity, and so
• 12:39
  Speaker 8: we're you know, kind of seeing both of those factors
• 12:43
  Speaker 8: starting to play out now as they you know, tried
• 12:46
  Speaker 8: to operate and.
• 12:49
  Speaker 5: Navigate through a lot of macro uncertainties.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: So what's the Is there another m and a trade
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: in there for the in that supermarket business? Again, you
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: mentioned Kroger's had some success and they've had and deals blocked.
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: Are they still in the market for growth of the acquisition.
• 13:04
  Speaker 8: It's hard to say right now. I mean the Alberson
• 13:06
  Speaker 8: theel just fell apart, you know, a few months ago.
• 13:10
  Speaker 8: The expectation, I think from people who follow the company
• 13:13
  Speaker 8: is that, you know, Kruger could look to do other
• 13:16
  Speaker 8: deals down the line, But I think for now, the
• 13:19
  Speaker 8: main priority is getting back to business and pursuing you know,
• 13:23
  Speaker 8: organic growth.
• 13:24
  Speaker 6: Thank you so much to in turn my Mike there,
• 13:26
  Speaker 6: my bad man, It's Monday, Jay One. Thanks a lot,
• 13:29
  Speaker 6: great reporting. We appreciated Jay Won Kong joining us a
• 13:31
  Speaker 6: Bloomberg retail reporter.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
• 13:42
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• 13:46
  Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: Alex Steeve, Paul Sweening. We're live here in our Bloomberg
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: Interactive Broker studio. We are streaming live on YouTube's ahead
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: over YouTube dot com starts Bloomberg Podcast Live, and that's
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: where you'll find it. I've seen, like I was mentioning
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: Alex earlier, that in the last few weeks, we've heard
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: from professional investors that there's growing concerns maybe about the
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: US economic growth and the exceptionalism thereof. And if so,
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: what do you do with your investments? Christina Hooper joins
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: US here. She is chief Global market Strategist for Investco. Christina,
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: how do you think about US economic growth over the
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: last several weeks? Has your outlook change it all? And
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: if so, how did you maybe change kind of the
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: way you're looking at investment opportunities.
• 14:31
  Speaker 9: Well, Paul, Alex, it's great to be with you. My
• 14:34
  Speaker 9: outlook hasn't changed much. Our expectation when we put out
• 14:37
  Speaker 9: our twenty twenty five outlook in November was that we're
• 14:40
  Speaker 9: likely to see better performance from developed markets x US
• 14:45
  Speaker 9: in twenty twenty five, and so that is playing out.
• 14:49
  Speaker 9: The US has been doing so well for so long,
• 14:52
  Speaker 9: and this seems to be a time in which we're
• 14:56
  Speaker 9: likely to see key drivers like greater monetary policy easing
• 15:01
  Speaker 9: and lower valuation supporting other markets. So my view is
• 15:07
  Speaker 9: that we're likely to see some hiccups. It doesn't mean
• 15:09
  Speaker 9: we're going to see a dramatic downturn, but we do
• 15:12
  Speaker 9: have as a frame of reference the twenty eighteen twenty
• 15:15
  Speaker 9: nineteen Terra force which were negative for US stocks, so
• 15:19
  Speaker 9: we want to be careful there.
• 15:21
  Speaker 6: So does that mean, Okay, we had someone else on
• 15:23
  Speaker 6: the last hour that said by the dip, It sounds
• 15:25
  Speaker 6: like it's more let it play out and see what
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: happens by stealth elsewhere.
• 15:31
  Speaker 9: So I think first and foremost it's about rebalancing. Most
• 15:36
  Speaker 9: investors are likely overweight US equities and underweight European equities,
• 15:41
  Speaker 9: UK equities, EM equities, so this is an opportunity to rebalance.
• 15:47
  Speaker 9: US stocks have had a great run over multiple years,
• 15:51
  Speaker 9: and it's about in doing so. In rebalancing, one is
• 15:56
  Speaker 9: going to have an overall valuation on one's portfolio that's lower,
• 16:00
  Speaker 9: that might be less vulnerable to some of the turmoil
• 16:06
  Speaker 9: and uncertainty that we're seeing right now, and so essentially
• 16:11
  Speaker 9: maintain exposure to the US. But this is not a
• 16:14
  Speaker 9: time to be overweight the US, in my opinion.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: Interesting because I'm looking on a year to day basis
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: the S and P five hundred up about one percent,
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: but the stocks europe six hundred price indext which I
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: think is kind of the broadest view of European investing,
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: that's up eleven percent year to date. Do you expect
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: that to continue, Christina?
• 16:32
  Speaker 9: I do think so. We have some powerful drivers. First
• 16:35
  Speaker 9: of all, we've got, you know, potentially significant ECB easing
• 16:40
  Speaker 9: this year. But beyond that, what we have is low
• 16:45
  Speaker 9: valuations and we have economic surprise. It's positive. Sentiment has
• 16:51
  Speaker 9: been pretty negative on European equities and they're exceeding expectations.
• 16:57
  Speaker 9: So I think this should be a good year for
• 16:59
  Speaker 9: your inequities, and I think it could very well be
• 17:03
  Speaker 9: a good year for UK equities, Japanese equities and in
• 17:06
  Speaker 9: fact EAM equities as well.
• 17:08
  Speaker 6: But what about the whole tariff thing, because that's going
• 17:10
  Speaker 6: to hurt everybody, right, So is it just that because
• 17:12
  Speaker 6: valuation is so much lower in Europe in the UK
• 17:15
  Speaker 6: than the US and it can absorb that kind of hit.
• 17:18
  Speaker 9: Well, I think that's certainly part of the story. Also,
• 17:21
  Speaker 9: you of course have those other drivers that I think
• 17:24
  Speaker 9: can soften the blow, For example, additional easing. If we
• 17:28
  Speaker 9: look at emerging markets central banks, more easing was expected
• 17:32
  Speaker 9: last year than we got, so I suspect that that
• 17:35
  Speaker 9: is what will come this year. We had to wait
• 17:38
  Speaker 9: a little bit, but I think this is probably good
• 17:40
  Speaker 9: timing and should be supportive of any kind of headwinds
• 17:43
  Speaker 9: created by tariffs.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: Walmart recently reported earnings, and people look to Walmart. It's
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: just a great gauge of the US consumer here. What
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: did you see from Walmart? What do you How do
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: you feel about the US consumer here?
• 17:58
  Speaker 9: So Walmart was I think very very rational and reasonable
• 18:04
  Speaker 9: in saying that we don't know exactly what's going to
• 18:08
  Speaker 9: happen this year. There's an awful lot of uncertainty, and
• 18:11
  Speaker 9: I think that's the reality that the consumer has been
• 18:13
  Speaker 9: quite resilient, but we don't know how things play out
• 18:16
  Speaker 9: this year. And I think that makes sense. The US
• 18:19
  Speaker 9: consumer is coming under greater pressure. Sentiment is down significantly,
• 18:25
  Speaker 9: and we saw on Friday that personal spending was down.
• 18:30
  Speaker 9: We have to be concerned that there are pressures now.
• 18:34
  Speaker 9: Having said that, they could be very short term in nature,
• 18:37
  Speaker 9: since they seem to be driven largely by tariffs and
• 18:39
  Speaker 9: the potential for tearfors. So if this were to be
• 18:42
  Speaker 9: behind us, it could be very similar to what we
• 18:44
  Speaker 9: saw in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, where as soon as
• 18:48
  Speaker 9: as the bulk of the tear wars are over, there
• 18:52
  Speaker 9: is a resumption in not just improved sentiment on the
• 18:56
  Speaker 9: part of consumers and businesses, but improved spending.
• 19:00
  Speaker 6: What are the most typical questions that you're getting right
• 19:02
  Speaker 6: now from clients based on this global view that you.
• 19:05
  Speaker 9: Have, Well, are we going into a recession in the US?
• 19:09
  Speaker 9: And I think that's only been amplified by the Atlanta
• 19:12
  Speaker 9: Fed GDP now estimate, which has shifted from growth expectations
• 19:18
  Speaker 9: of over two percent to now a negative growth in
• 19:21
  Speaker 9: the first quarter. My answer is that we need to
• 19:25
  Speaker 9: wait and see. It's unclear. Our base case certainly has
• 19:30
  Speaker 9: not been for a recession this year, but we are
• 19:33
  Speaker 9: seeing a deterioration in economic data, so we want to
• 19:37
  Speaker 9: follow this very closely. Now, it could very well be
• 19:40
  Speaker 9: that we do see growth in the first quarter. Keep
• 19:43
  Speaker 9: in mind that the Atlanta Fed GDP now here is
• 19:47
  Speaker 9: real time, so it can easily shift. But I do
• 19:50
  Speaker 9: think we want to be more on top of this,
• 19:53
  Speaker 9: more cognizant of every data point and what it might
• 19:56
  Speaker 9: be telling us. We want to find those canaries in
• 19:59
  Speaker 9: the cold right now.
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: Yep.
• 20:01
  Speaker 6: And you're not alone in that. Michael Feroli over JP
• 20:05
  Speaker 6: Morgan just cut his first quarter real GDP estimate from
• 20:08
  Speaker 6: two point two five percent to one point five So
• 20:10
  Speaker 6: like it's moving really fast, Christina, Thank you so much.
• 20:13
  Speaker 6: Christina Hooper joining us from Invesco. Always wonderful to get
• 20:16
  Speaker 6: your perspective.
• 20:18
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