Latest / Simply Bitcoin / TRILLION DOLLAR GIANTS EXPOSED FOR BUYING MICROSTRATEGY & METAPLANET | EP 1336

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TRILLION DOLLAR GIANTS EXPOSED FOR BUYING MICROSTRATEGY & METAPLANET | EP 1336 · Simply Bitcoin

0:00
While everyone was distracted, a trillion dollar giants have been
0:04
quietly buying Bitcoin stocks. A $1.4 trillion bank was just
0:09
exposed for buying nearly 1/4 billion dollars of MSTR.
0:13
But they're not alone. One of Bitcoin's biggest critics
0:16
has also been exposed for not only buying strategy, but now
0:20
buying Metaplanet. This week, of course, before we
0:24
reveal what that $9 trillion giant is doing, let's dive into
0:28
the first giant who just adopted Bitcoin.
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And it's a relatively unknown French baking giant.
0:34
Even though they're huge, I never heard about them, but hey,
0:37
they're diving into Bitcoin very deep.
0:40
And of course, I'm not alone. I do have my favorite zoomer,
0:44
Mitchell Hoddle here from Blockware Solutions and we're
0:47
going to be, it might be a spicy topic later.
0:49
We're going to be talking about the end of the four year cycle.
0:52
You guys know I've been quoting Mitchell on the show for a
0:54
while. He's going to come on the show,
0:56
make a case for that. Maybe we'll go back and forth.
0:58
He was trolling me a little earlier about even using the the
1:02
the verbiage of cycles here. So we're going to have a good
1:05
combo at the end. Anyways, let's dive into these
1:08
news stories. So Bitcoin treasuries, they've,
1:11
you know, been covering all of the institutions and companies
1:15
that are coming into Bitcoin. They just posted that a French
1:18
multinational investment bank, Natix, Natix, I don't know how
1:23
to say this, Mad Natixis, I don't know, forgive me, guys,
1:28
has bought $148.4 million worth of strategy and are now holding
1:34
715,598 shares, basically around $240 million of MSTR.
1:44
And this is the trend that we've been seeing go around all year
1:47
long. These institutions, maybe
1:50
they're not comfortable buying Bitcoin yet, but they're very
1:53
comfortable with buying Bitcoin stocks or as we like to call it,
1:56
you know, Bitcoin exposure. So as we've seen for a while,
2:01
it's becoming very clear that you can tacitly indirectly have
2:07
exposure to Bitcoin. But going full bore into Bitcoin
2:10
spot Bitcoin right now is it's still not really the flavor of
2:14
the month. Yeah, you might buy some Bitcoin
2:16
ETFs, but they're more comfortable buying these stocks.
2:21
And do I really blame them? Not really, As Sailor's been
2:24
showing this for a while, It's obviously got a lot of appetite
2:29
from these institutions here. They want to get Bitcoin
2:33
exposure. You could argue they just want
2:34
the Bitcoin games, but hey, you know, baby steps into this
2:39
market and we're seeing they're coming in very fast and they're
2:41
not the only one that the next story is is a little more
2:44
interesting, but I'm going to pass it over to Mitchell real
2:46
quick. We've seen this trend and this
2:49
does lead into your argument of the end of the four year cycle.
2:53
So let's not, you know, let let's not blow our load on the
2:56
end of the four year cycle. Let's just talk about the
2:59
institution's kind of dipping their toes into Bitcoin through
3:02
these Bitcoin stocks. And of course, I don't know if
3:05
you guys remember, but Mitchell Hoddle was very famous, or
3:08
rather maybe infamous for asking Saylor about him, why he doesn't
3:12
hold his keys, whether he's going to hold his keys.
3:15
And so you've been in the heart of this, this story here of
3:18
institutions coming into Bitcoin, but they're not really
3:22
fully into Bitcoin yet. They just see Bitcoin stocks as
3:25
an easy way or maybe a convenient way for them to get
3:28
Bitcoin exposure. So what's your thoughts on this
3:31
trend of the institutions coming into Bitcoin via the Bitcoin
3:34
stocks? That's a great question and
3:38
thanks again for having me on the show, Opti.
3:39
It's always a blast to join you guys here on Simply Bitcoin.
3:42
And this is Bitcoin now. Like it or not, it's
3:46
institutions you've never heard of making $100 million plus
3:50
deployments into the asset. And like you said, they're here
3:53
for number, go up for price appreciation, exposure,
3:58
preservation of capital, however you want to slice it up.
4:01
They're not here for Freedom Tech.
4:03
They're not here for peer-to-peer transactions.
4:05
They are here because Bitcoin is a great asset to hold for the
4:09
long term, just like real estate, equities, gold,
4:12
etcetera. Bitcoin is now part of that,
4:15
that bucket of assets that institutions are willing to
4:17
allocate capital to. And like you said, they're not
4:20
buying Bitcoin directly. They like familiar interfaces,
4:23
they like buying equities, they like buying securitized
4:26
products. And so of course they're buying
4:29
strategy stock, which is ironic a little bit because it's more
4:32
volatile than Bitcoin, which bitcoins volatility is kind of
4:35
the number one thing many institutions cite for why they
4:38
don't buy Bitcoin. But this is this is part of the
4:41
story. And I think it's been said, you
4:44
know, ad nauseam in the Bitcoin world, but store value happens
4:47
first, medium of exchange and unit of account happened down
4:50
the line. So I think this is all part of
4:53
Bitcoins natural progression to becoming the world's premier
4:56
store value, premier medium of exchange and premier unit of
5:00
account. Yeah, totally.
5:01
And Mitch, I I've been thinking about, I think we've been
5:04
talking about this on the show for a while now, but I want to
5:08
get your opinion of this. Do you think that the
5:10
institutions now coming into Bitcoin, I know there's been a
5:14
whole conversation about Bitcoin being Co opted.
5:17
What would be your take on this? Do you think cuz the
5:19
institutions are here because it does feel that the separation of
5:23
money and state meme is kind of getting a, you know, backward
5:27
push here. It's not like the the headline
5:29
anymore. It because the institutions are
5:31
here because of every people that Bitcoin was supposed to
5:34
disintermediate are in the space now.
5:37
Do you think that that, I don't know, neglects or rather
5:42
disproves this idea that we are all here for freedom, money, the
5:45
separation of money in state or as you kind of just said, this
5:48
was the inevitable path we were going to take?
5:51
Yeah, not at all. It does not change that one one
5:54
bit because for one, we can't stop the institutions from
5:58
joining. So if Bitcoin could gatekeep the
6:01
institutions out, then inherently it would not be free
6:03
to money because institutions at the end of the day are just
6:06
groups of people. And so groups of people
6:08
voluntarily electing to use Bitcoin as a store value.
6:11
We can't stop that, and that's a good thing.
6:13
Second, institutions joining the Bitcoin network doesn't stop you
6:17
from buying Bitcoin, taking it into self custody, mining
6:21
Bitcoin, running a node, the actual underlying blockchain,
6:25
the time chain, whatever you want to call it.
6:27
The Bitcoin network does not change one bit.
6:29
It doesn't even know who's interacting with it, right?
6:31
It doesn't know if it's an institution or if it's retail or
6:34
if it's someone in a third world country selling bananas and
6:37
using it to save Bitcoin. Like none of that really
6:39
changes. This is all part of the the USD
6:43
side of the equation, right? So you have BTCUSD is the
6:46
exchange rate. All of this just affects the USD
6:48
side of it. The Bitcoin part doesn't really
6:51
change at all. And furthermore, we should want
6:54
institutions to come into the network and to start
6:57
accumulating Bitcoin, because that's the only way Bitcoin can
7:00
get to $1,000,000. Retail was perfectly capable of
7:03
getting Bitcoin from a $0.00 asset to a trillion dollar
7:06
asset. But if bitcoin's going to get to
7:08
a $20 trillion market cap, $50 trillion market cap, if it's
7:12
really going to dominate the world in the way that many
7:14
Bitcoiners would like, you have to have institutions like retail
7:18
simply does not have enough resources to pump the price up
7:20
that much. Yeah, no, I I would totally
7:23
agree. And it is, it is interesting
7:25
seeing a lot of Bitcoiners. I know you probably saw there
7:28
was kind of the rumors going around that some of the OG
7:31
whales were selling out because the institutions are embracing
7:35
us. And from my perspective, I'd
7:37
agree with you 100%. It just, it's, it's like this
7:39
just seems how the natural progression of Bitcoin was going
7:43
to be. And I use that same example all
7:45
the time. Like guys, if you think it's
7:46
just going to be retail that takes Bitcoin to $100 trillion
7:50
plus market caps, I don't think you understand how capital
7:53
markets work. Like I don't think you
7:55
understand where all the capital actually is.
7:58
And I know we were kind of trolling Sailor a little bit in
8:01
the beginning, but like a lot of the projects that he's creating
8:04
right now is literally designed for that exact task.
8:07
And so as much as I would also love to see these institutions
8:11
and high net worth individuals and of course retail and just
8:13
grassroots movement of people adopting Bitcoin, I think this
8:17
was the way it was going to happen.
8:19
If you think Bitcoin is going to ridiculous market cap,
8:23
ridiculous price moves, the institutions had to get in here
8:27
and now you're seeing that they are feeling comfortable coming
8:30
into Bitcoin and maybe it's not how we wanted them to
8:33
originally. Of course, a lot of us
8:35
Bitcoiners were maybe a little naive in the beginning.
8:38
We fully didn't understand the whole macro landscape.
8:40
And now that we are maturing, we are starting to understand how
8:44
all of the world's capital actually moves and how it
8:47
actually works. And I would agree with you like
8:50
this was how we were going to get Bitcoin to the next level is
8:53
these institutions coming. And so I also believe that that
8:57
it doesn't disprove the thesis of Bitcoin separating, you know,
9:00
money from state. It's like, hey, I've been saying
9:03
it on the show and I'd like to hear your thoughts before I move
9:05
on to the next one. I was like, guys, if you are one
9:09
of these people that are in the traditional financial system,
9:12
like they probably need capital preservation as much as we do,
9:16
if not more. If you have a lot more to lose,
9:19
you're probably looking at Bitcoin like, hey, I may not
9:21
fully believe this. We've heard Jamie Dimon this.
9:24
Yeah, Jamie Dimon say this. It's like, I may not actually
9:26
believe in this, but I'm seeing what it's doing.
9:30
And if you have hundreds of millions of dollars or if you're
9:33
a bank with trillion dollar market caps, you're looking at
9:36
Bitcoin. You're like, well, we're we are
9:39
seeing some trouble in the system and if this little tiny
9:42
thing can protect us, you better bet that they're are taking this
9:45
thing very seriously, especially now that Bitcoin has entered the
9:49
geopolitical and macro conversation right now.
9:52
So I'm with you. I I fully abide by the Bitcoin
9:55
is for enemy memes. It's like this is this is how it
9:58
was going to happen. So I totally agree with that
10:01
Mitch. Anyways, let's go to the next
10:03
news 'cause this one's a little more interesting.
10:05
It's a, it's a similar kind of vein, but we saw this morning
10:10
that Vanguard now holds a position in Metaplanet.
10:14
It's not as big of a position. Hold on, it's a smaller
10:19
position, $50 million in Metaplanet.
10:22
But I think the most interesting aspect about this is, of course,
10:26
the Vanguard CEO was very famous, or rather maybe infamous
10:30
at this point for when the Bitcoin ETF was launched saying,
10:34
hey, we're never going to launch this product.
10:36
So now they are, I think, still the biggest holder in
10:41
MicroStrategy. And now they just started to
10:44
allocate to Metaplanet. So I know they got that CEO out
10:48
of there and they're still not allowing their clients to get
10:52
into Bitcoin ETFs. But it's really one of those of,
10:55
you know, watch what they do, not watch what or yeah, don't
10:58
listen to what they say here like they're getting Bitcoin
11:01
exposure some way. Maybe they won't let you do it
11:04
yet, but if they're doing it, it's probably a good move.
11:07
Whether you like them or not. It's like, yeah, you know,
11:11
strategy is going to be the best performing, if not the biggest
11:14
company in the US and sailors been saying Metaplan is going to
11:18
be the biggest company in Japan and Vanguard sitting here like,
11:22
yeah, we're not going to let our customers buy Bitcoin ETS.
11:24
We're not even going to allow the ETFs to be on our platform.
11:27
But we're definitely going to get exposure in this, which I
11:30
think is really showing how big these Bitcoin treasury companies
11:34
are going to be, whether you like them or not.
11:36
I'm not the biggest Bitcoin stock guy, but it is showing us
11:40
that there is an appetite for these stocks.
11:42
There is an appetite for these products and the quote on quote,
11:46
what smart money is seeing the same things we're seeing.
11:49
They got a huge holding in strategy.
11:51
Now they're starting to deploy capital and metaplanet.
11:54
It's just it's it's ironic and it's hilarious at the same time.
11:58
Like with one side of their mouth, they're like, yeah, this
12:01
Bitcoin thing's bad. With the other side of their
12:02
mouth, they're like, yeah, we're going to buy a bunch of shares
12:05
in these companies that literally all they do is buy
12:07
Bitcoin. I think this is a sign of the
12:10
times where we are right now. They they're still staying away
12:13
from Bitcoin per SE spot Bitcoin, but if they can get
12:16
their gains and their exposures through these products, they're
12:19
obviously going to do this. It's just a crazy year it's been
12:23
so far. So Mitch, what's your thoughts
12:24
on Vanguard? You know, on the one hand,
12:27
they're like, yeah, we don't want this Bitcoin.
12:30
And then they just constantly get exposed for buying Bitcoin
12:33
stocks. Like what?
12:34
What? What is their thinking here?
12:36
Yeah, the hypocrisy is off the charts.
12:39
And one might say they're Vanguarding their clients from
12:42
great returns by blocking them from buying the ETF.
12:45
But it's, I mean, it's like you said, watch what they do, not
12:50
what they say. And for them, $50 million,
12:53
that's chump change. It kind of alludes to your
12:56
earlier point, which is in their shoes, it's like they have so
13:00
much to lose. If this Bitcoin thing is right,
13:02
if Bitcoin does become the world's number one store value
13:06
for them, you know, it's it's a very much an asymmetric bet.
13:09
Throw $50 million here at Metaplanet, throw another couple
13:12
100 million at strategy and some of these other Bitcoin proxies
13:15
and that gives them enough hedge, enough exposure where
13:18
when we're right about Bitcoin, they'll be OK.
13:21
These institutions will survive. And so it's kind of if you game
13:24
theory it out, which that word gets beat to death in the
13:27
Bitcoin world. But if you really apply game
13:29
theory, it makes sense that all these institutions will get at
13:32
least a little bit of Bitcoin exposure.
13:34
And then when you run the numbers on these massive
13:37
trillion dollar capital managers putting just a little bit into
13:40
Bitcoin, that's going to have pretty profound impacts on the
13:44
current exchange rate. Yeah, you reminded me of, I
13:47
forget who posted the report. I know James Lavish has done a
13:52
few presentations on it and he basically ran through the
13:55
numbers and was showing, if you Simply put like 1% of your
13:59
portfolio into Bitcoin, or at this point, Bitcoin stocks or
14:03
Bitcoin exposure, not only will that protect you if there is a
14:07
99% meltdown to the rest of your portfolio, but soon enough over,
14:12
you know, four or five year time span, that 1% is going to be a,
14:15
a large portion of your portfolio because of Bitcoins
14:19
price appreciation. So even though for us, like a
14:22
50, you know, buying a $50 million bag of Bitcoin would be
14:25
like, all right, bet like we're good to go for these
14:28
institutions that hold, you know, Vanguard holds about $10
14:31
trillion in assets, or rather they have $10 trillion of assets
14:35
under management. Throwing 50 million at, at
14:38
Bitcoin is just like, whatever, it's a rounding error.
14:40
They, they, they probably didn't even think too much about it.
14:43
And for us, it's like, OK, it's really showing us that they may
14:49
not be fully on board with Bitcoin, but they're starting to
14:53
look at it very seriously. I saw the, I think Marty Bet
14:56
tweeted this or TFTC tweeted it the other day.
14:58
And it was the idea that essentially only 3% of hedge
15:02
fund, the managers have invested in Bitcoin, which in another way
15:07
of saying is like, you know, 93 to 99.7% of capital hasn't even
15:13
made it into Bitcoin yet. And we're still thinking that,
15:17
oh, hey, you know, the, the cycles are over, bro.
15:20
You know, like this is the top man.
15:23
No, no more pumping Bitcoin. This is the end of it.
15:26
And we're going to chat about this later because I have been
15:28
saying we, we are on the verge. I think of, you know, this, this
15:34
quote unlimited bid into Bitcoin.
15:37
And I think this is where you and I overlap on this idea of
15:40
the four year cycle ending is like what we're seeing.
15:43
What if we are correct in what are, what we're seeing in our,
15:46
in our analysis of the situation right now, they're basically
15:51
dropping pennies into Bitcoin. And once they actually go
15:55
forcefully into Bitcoin, whether that's next year or 2027 or, you
16:00
know, before 20-30, this thing, this might be, you know, the,
16:04
the Super cycle meme we all really want to believe in.
16:07
It's like they're just, they're literally dropping pennies into
16:10
Bitcoin and it's making huge splashes to us.
16:13
So it really does lead to this is just beginning and I think
16:17
that's probably where you take the end of the four year cycle,
16:20
right, Mitch? Yeah, more or less and and we'll
16:23
dive deeper towards the end of the show, but there's this kind
16:26
of loop that gets created with institutional adoption because
16:31
like you said, they're dripping pennies.
16:32
They don't girth their entire $10 trillion portfolio in at one
16:35
time. They basically dollar cost
16:38
average, but in in numbers that are far bigger than what you and
16:41
I and the rest of the Pleds could put together in the
16:44
aggregate. And so as more of this
16:46
institutional capital enters the market at this kind of snail's
16:50
pace, almost Bitcoins volatility, and this is
16:54
objectively true, decreases. Bitcoin is far less volatile now
16:58
than it used to be and the fascinating thing about that is
17:01
that gives institutions more of a green light to get into
17:05
Bitcoin because the volatility is down.
17:07
And so it kind of creates this perpetual feedback loop where
17:10
more institutional capital draws down bit draws down bitcoins
17:13
volatility, which invites in more institutional capital and
17:16
just continues to to kind of rinse and repeat.
17:20
And my base case is Bitcoin stairways.
17:23
It's a stairway to heaven, right?
17:24
We're going to stair step higher to $1,000,000 over the next 10
17:27
years through, you know, bitcoins going to go up a little
17:29
bit, you know, 25 to 50% consolidate for a few months, up
17:34
again, 25 to 50% more consolidation and on repeat
17:37
until we get to some pretty large numbers.
17:41
Man, Mitch, what Mitch just said is the Ponzi is over, boys, wrap
17:45
it up. It was fun while it lasted.
17:49
No, no, I'm trolling. I'm trolling.
17:50
But I do want to hit a question here.
17:53
Anthony Jones in the chat goes, I don't understand the appeal of
17:57
ETF Bitcoin, but personally I would agree with you as an
18:01
individual. It kind of makes no sense to me
18:04
as someone who doesn't have a lot of capital really, you know,
18:07
sitting on the sidelines. But the appeal and and it's the
18:10
same appeal you're seeing from all of sailors products, you
18:13
know, strike strife. I forget what stride there.
18:18
There's so many of these products now it's hard to, you
18:21
know, organize them, but the idea is essentially and and
18:24
maybe Mitch can can elaborate on this as well.
18:27
It's like the idea is most capital is stranded in Tradfi.
18:31
I don't know if you guys saw sailors say it the other day.
18:33
It's like Bitcoin is recycling capital right now.
18:36
So for us, you know, if you have money on the side, basically if
18:39
you're saving dollars under your mattress, obviously you should
18:42
just be buying spot Bitcoin. That's the best way to be doing
18:46
this. But if you are maybe a more high
18:49
net worth individual or you are, you know, have red tape around
18:55
what you can actually invest in via, you know, regulation and
18:59
capital controls, then these ETF products and the strategy
19:03
products are literally designed purposefully for these
19:06
institutions and for these investors to get their capital
19:09
into Bitcoin. So while this might not make
19:12
sense to you to buy an ETF, it makes sense for a lot of other
19:16
people because it's hard for them to get their capital
19:19
directly into Bitcoin. And we've literally only seen
19:22
what about a year and some change the ability for all of
19:26
this capital to get into Bitcoin.
19:28
And that's what these are designed for.
19:30
It's not necessarily for retail, though I'm sure retail out there
19:33
may be like, you know, our, our boomer parents are just more
19:37
comfortable with trading on Charles Schwab or something like
19:39
that and seeing these products easily for them to get their
19:43
capital into a Bitcoin exposure product.
19:46
It's just convenience really. But there is a lot of capital
19:49
that can't get into Bitcoin without taking, you know, crazy
19:52
penalties or a lot of, you know, loopholes for them to get that
19:56
capital in the Bitcoin. It's just an easier an easier
19:59
solution for them. And that's what we're seeing
20:01
happen right now. The solutions are being made for
20:04
capital to flow into Bitcoin easier.
20:06
And so for you as an individual, it probably doesn't make too
20:09
much sense. You're like, why would I buy an
20:11
ETF when I can buy Bitcoin? Like why would I add a middle
20:14
man into my Bitcoin exposure when I can just buy it directly?
20:18
That's how you should be thinking as a sovereign
20:20
individual. But for people that still have
20:22
capital in these markets and traditional vehicles, this is
20:26
what these products are designed for, so.
20:29
Mitchell, I don't know if you want to add to that.
20:30
Yeah, that was spot on. Really the, the simplest answer
20:33
is they can't buy Bitcoin directly.
20:36
Of course, individual people like I don't have any IBIT.
20:39
I say this is someone with no Bitcoin ETF exposure whatsoever.
20:43
I prefer cold storage Bitcoin. But you know, the, the most
20:46
basic example like you mentioned is, is the boomer.
20:49
They've been saving in retirement accounts their entire
20:51
life. They don't want to, maybe
20:52
they're close to retirement. They don't want to take a tax
20:54
penalty to get those funds out and buy Bitcoin when they could
20:57
just buy IBIT or or FBTC right within their native account.
21:02
And then you extrapolate that to the highest capital allocators
21:05
in society. It's not that they don't
21:08
necessarily want to buy Bitcoin and take self custody, but
21:11
oftentimes they can't. Bitcoin's such a new asset.
21:14
There's so much for them, restrictions, red tape, like in
21:19
terms of just the custody alone. So they want to use the
21:23
interface they're familiar with, which is going on to their
21:25
brokerage account and just clicking buy.
21:27
It's a lot more simple. They have far fewer things to
21:30
worry about, and that's where the vast majority of the world's
21:33
capital exists. It's in institutions like this.
21:37
Yeah, totally. And it's funny.
21:39
It's funny, just kind of reflecting on this, a lot of us
21:42
Bitcoiners learned about the traditional financial system
21:46
through the lens of Bitcoin, and we really forget the amount of
21:50
friction that is built into traditional financial vehicles
21:54
that make it extremely hard for investors to get their capital
21:58
out. And obviously that's by design.
22:01
I'm thinking of the was it? I think it's yeah, Wolf of Wall
22:05
Street meme where he's like, you know, the goal is literally keep
22:09
them on the the corral on the roller coaster forever.
22:12
And as long as you keep them on the roller coaster, then none of
22:16
this is ever actually real. And the banks can take their
22:19
money. That's the whole goal, to make
22:21
sure that your capital that you put into Wall Street never
22:24
leaves Wall Street. Like, they don't want you to get
22:27
your money out. They want it to continue to get
22:30
played because that's how they make their money.
22:32
And so there's a lot of of friction built into the system
22:35
so that it's hard for you to get your capital out.
22:38
And we're seeing Bitcoin obviously disintermediate this
22:41
or rather maybe Bitcoiners not not necessarily saying Larry
22:44
Fink is a Bitcoiner per SE, but hey, they built the product so
22:47
that the capital can find, you know, leakage into the Bitcoin
22:51
system. And again, it's super early.
22:53
This is just the beginning of it.
22:55
And I know we've been getting a lot of Flack recently because we
22:58
have been talking a lot about institutions and sailor, it's
23:02
because that is the hype cycle right now.
23:05
It's seeing institutional capital flow into Bitcoin.
23:08
And you know, we're a news show, we're a Daily News show.
23:11
So this is where the tension is right now.
23:14
But it doesn't mean that the real revolution here is not
23:18
buying Bitcoin directly. So if you're one of us, you
23:21
know, if you're a low a low IQ 42 IQ person like myself and
23:26
you're like, dude, I just buy Bitcoin.
23:27
I stack it. I put in the cold storage.
23:29
Like none of this even matters to me.
23:31
I'm, I'm totally with you, you know, stack Bitcoin and chill.
23:34
This is the way. But as we're seeing a new type
23:37
of investor come into the market, all of this stuff does
23:40
appeal to a broader market of people that have money, have
23:44
capital trapped in the traditional financial system and
23:48
they're trying to find ways to get that capital into Bitcoin.
23:51
And so as much as we may not like it from a more cypherpunk
23:55
sovereign individual ethos, this was how the game was going to be
24:00
played. And we're going to we're going
24:01
to break this down later on in the show because we I literally
24:04
brought Mitchell on today so that we can talk about the end
24:06
of the four year cycle. So tail end of the show, if you
24:09
like this conversation, we are going to expand on this a lot
24:12
more. OK guys, of course I do want to
24:15
remind you to smash the like button comment on the show.
24:18
Tell us what you think about the show.
24:19
And of course, hit the subscriber button.
24:21
We dropped the best and the most content on YouTube, period.
24:25
And before I keep it moving, got to give some love to our boys
24:29
over at the Bitcoin. Well, if you are sitting on the
24:34
sidelines, if you are watching all of this stuff and you're
24:38
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24:40
make sure you go to bitcoinwell.com/simply BTC scan
24:44
the QR code here and you get 3 chances to win a million sets.
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I will be giving Bitcoin away at the end of the show.
24:50
Guys remind me because I sometimes I do forget so spam me
24:55
in the chat later, but when you scan the QR code, you get three
25:00
chances to win a million sets, which is what about $1100 today
25:03
and every time you buy Bitcoin or refer friends, you get more
25:06
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They they will never lose your Bitcoin.
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They have never lost your Bitcoin because they never hold
25:16
your Bitcoin. Your Bitcoin goes directly into
25:19
your cold storage. This is the way guys, we've,
25:22
we've seen throughout the history of Bitcoin, so many
25:24
exchanges go down and I actually have a story about this for, for
25:28
you guys today coming out of Canada that is absolutely
25:31
insane. We live in wild times right now
25:34
and they, hey, they, they're Canadian, but they, they can't
25:36
do this to Bitcoin well, because they never hold your Bitcoin.
25:40
This is why we partner with them.
25:42
Anyways, let's get into the rest of the show.
25:44
I I'm going to troll a little bit guys did Gary Gensler's back
25:48
dude, he sounded like a maxi again.
25:49
I'm sorry guys. I I got to plug this and then
25:52
like I said it pretty insane news story coming out of Canada
25:57
and a quote UN quote crypto exchange that is just it's wild,
26:01
it's wild times here. So let's keep the show moving
26:04
and we will get into it right now.
26:15
I want to give a shout out to our partner Stamp seed.
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All righty then guys we are over here on Clark Moody's dashboard
27:31
bitcoin.clarkmoody.com gotta love the dashboard.
27:35
Anyways the current Bitcoin price is 115,940 guys we were at
27:39
like 117 yesterday woke up to a dump.
27:42
Gotta love this. It's it's just so much fun when
27:44
bitcoin's a stablecoin. Anyways we are at a -6.8%
27:48
decline from all time high. The market cap in Fiat terms is
27:51
2.31 trillion and the current block height, the real, the only
27:56
real time that matters is the block height of Bitcoin is
28:00
currently at 915,439. That's the only true time in the
28:05
world is the block height. OK, guys, as I was telling you,
28:09
Gary Gensler is back and in hindsight, you know, 2020
28:13
hindsight and all that good stuff, man, maybe maybe we were
28:17
kind of blessed with Gary. I'm not going to lie, maybe,
28:20
maybe he was doing a lot more good for us than than we wanted
28:24
to believe. But let's just play the clip and
28:27
and we're going to troll a little bit.
28:28
You know, it's Friday, we troll a little bit.
28:30
So here's Gary Genzer on squawk box or wait, was this squawk box
28:34
whatever, MSNBC or CNBC. So when I look at the field that
28:40
trades mostly on one momentum, mostly on, frankly, hype.
28:49
For. Investors, you think this is
28:51
dangerous, what they're doing? I think that for investors,
28:55
everyday investors, the five to 10% of Americans who invest in
29:00
crypto and it's hard to get the real, you know, but that it's a
29:04
highly speculative, very risky asset.
29:07
And in most of these tokens, put aside Bitcoin, most of the other
29:13
tokens are not tied to any fundamentals.
29:16
And there's 5 or 10,000 of these tokens.
29:18
So usually over time you find new equilibriums.
29:25
Yo, I'm a, I'm a Gary Gensler maxi guys.
29:28
He, he sounds like a maxi here. It is interesting how his
29:32
rhetoric has changed since he got out of office.
29:35
For a while there, he was like, I'm, I'm not, I'm not going to
29:38
give any official opinion on this stuff.
29:40
He gets out and he's like, yeah, put Bitcoin aside, everything
29:43
else is trash. And you're like, OK, so he did
29:45
know what he was doing when he was the head of the SEC.
29:49
And I think there's probably a few factors playing out here.
29:52
Obviously the new chair, Atkins, they're a lot more pro Bitcoin,
29:57
are rather pro crypto friendly. So maybe this is a jab at the
30:01
current head of the SEC because they do seem to be unleashing
30:05
the, you know, the shit coin tidal wave right now.
30:07
They're like, I think this last week we saw them say like, Oh
30:11
yeah, a lot of these crypto tokens don't fall under
30:13
securities laws. Gary Gensler was a huge advocate
30:17
of the Howie test. Now he's out and he's like,
30:19
yeah, Bitcoin is different than everything else.
30:22
I wouldn't be investing in anything else, though.
30:24
He's still playing on the idea of Bitcoin being, you know, a
30:27
risky, speculative asset. So maybe he knows who he's
30:31
talking to. He knows his audience at this
30:33
point. But I don't know, man, Mitch
30:36
sounds like Gary was a maxi this whole time as we thought he was.
30:40
I think he always was cuz he gave a speech at MIT back in
30:44
like 2013 and he broke down Bitcoin on the most technical
30:48
level and he was spot on about it.
30:49
So I think he's known this whole time.
30:52
It's unfortunate that during his tenure, I, you know, honestly,
30:56
I'm all for like, let's regulate crypto like grandma shouldn't be
31:00
going on FTX and like getting totally rug pulled.
31:02
Like there's definitely some shady stuff going on in the
31:05
crypto world, the ICO scams, all these, these pump and dumps,
31:09
like I'm all for shutting that stuff down, but his
31:12
administration allowed that to bleed into Bitcoin because
31:16
Bitcoin companies were getting attacked just for simply
31:19
offering. You know, they were getting
31:20
debanked getting D platform from marketing providers and other
31:24
other types of businesses just for being, you know, even
31:27
Bitcoin only not even having anything to do with these other
31:29
cryptos. So he probably is a Bitcoin
31:32
maxi, but it I don't think it really, I don't think he did a
31:35
good job as the SEC chair and I'm certainly glad he's out.
31:38
Yeah, yeah, I, I guys, I'm, I'm, I'm literally every time I bring
31:42
Gary Ginzer on, it's just like a running troll here that he was
31:45
really a Bitcoin maxi, though. I mean, under his, you know,
31:48
tenure, of course, the Bitcoin ETFs did launch.
31:51
And my whole troll was essentially this idea that the
31:55
reason he delayed the Bitcoin ETF for so long is because he
31:58
wasn't sure how to stop the tidal wave of shit Bitcoin ET,
32:01
FS being launched. And so that's, you know, being
32:04
gracious here. That's why it took him so long.
32:07
But to your point, Mitch, I think that is probably the
32:09
biggest signal here that even he was if he was a true believer in
32:13
Bitcoin and yes, he launched the Bitcoin ETF under his watch,
32:17
etcetera, etcetera. The damage that he did to the
32:20
industry at large by trying to kind of stop all of this from
32:25
happening, it really had ramifications for the Bitcoin
32:28
industry at large. Or just, you know, like all of
32:32
the stuff that was happening with the, what's it enforcement
32:35
by regulation rules they were doing Like we had just no idea
32:39
what was going on. We had no idea what was okay,
32:42
what was not. So as much as I I like to joke
32:46
about him being a maxi, I, I think your point is, is true
32:50
here that like, yeah, maybe he was.
32:52
But when he got in that position, he obviously had to
32:55
change tune and he tried to stop the floodgates from happening.
32:59
And it really did a lot more damage than good.
33:02
Even though he launched the ETF, you know, it was under his
33:04
watch, but we're seeing now the new SEC chair Atkins, they're,
33:10
they're flipping 180% on their view on Bitcoin and, and even
33:13
crypto. Like they're literally like all
33:15
cryptos are good now. They're not securities anymore.
33:17
And we're like, oh shit, maybe, maybe we, we got more than we
33:21
asked here and be careful what we wish for and all that stuff
33:25
cuz I don't know man. It's looking like the floodgates
33:29
are opening up. I.
33:30
Don't know, I think the altcoin world already blew their load
33:33
within the first like month of the administration, right?
33:35
Because we had the the Trump coin, the Melania coin, we had
33:38
the whole Dave Portnoy thing and all that feels like a lifetime
33:41
ago. But I mean, that's, that's
33:44
pretty much it, right? I think Bitcoin doesn't need the
33:47
altcoin world to be regulated in order for Bitcoin to win out.
33:51
Bitcoin wins out in the free market and the free market of
33:53
ideas because it's simply a better asset.
33:56
It doesn't have these, you know, Solana pump and dumps with these
33:59
pre mines and all this, this gimmickry going on.
34:02
It's it's Bitcoin, right? It's origin.
34:07
There was no, it's purely natural, right?
34:09
What are they called the natural conception.
34:11
Nobody got a pre mine. Nobody got Bitcoin before
34:13
anybody else. It's been perfectly fair and
34:16
open and available to everyone from the very beginning.
34:19
So doesn't have any leadership in control.
34:22
There's no head, there's no any of the shenanigans that go on in
34:25
the crypto world. And so I think the market can
34:27
figure that out on its own without the government having to
34:30
kind of regulate crypto into obsolescence.
34:33
Yeah, yeah, it's AII totally get the perspective of trying to
34:39
protect, you know, mom and pop, as we've seen this year and we
34:42
haven't really covered it too much, but we have seen a rise in
34:48
crypto scams. And I mean, I'm sure if you guys
34:51
had been on Coinbase before, you're getting the messages
34:54
constantly. I had one of my friends text me
34:56
like we literally got on a call. I haven't talked to him in like
34:59
a year. And he called me and he was
35:02
asking, he's like one of my only friends that actually listened
35:05
to me and bought some Bitcoin. And so I was kind of telling
35:09
him, updating him about, you know, the whole Trump
35:11
administration, all, all of the kind of narrative shifting
35:14
institutions, getting into Bitcoin.
35:16
And he was like, oh man, all right, well, it might be a good
35:19
time for me to buy some Bitcoin now again.
35:21
And I'm like, yeah, it's probably a good time.
35:23
You know, I was being I wasn't being a a full hard shill on
35:26
him. I'm like, yeah, it's probably a
35:27
good idea. And literally the next morning
35:30
he texted me and he's like, yo, like, what is this text message?
35:34
And it was a screenshot of like a Coinbase, you know, your
35:37
account has been activated or something.
35:39
He's like, what is this? I'm like, that's a scam, dude,
35:42
don't worry about it. And he's like, yo, this is
35:44
freaky that I, I haven't talked about Bitcoin at all.
35:47
We get on the phone and the next morning I get these texts and
35:50
it's like, yeah, you know, I didn't want to go into like
35:53
there is a rise in scams recently, whether it is through
35:57
text messages, emails, the ATMs, there's been a lot of ATM scam.
36:02
So like, even though we are seeing the proliferation of
36:05
Bitcoin and, and you know, for better words crypto, the scams
36:09
are rising. So again, you know, we'll give
36:11
some credit where it's due. And it's it's hard to hold back
36:14
this whole technological revolution without a lot of
36:18
people that aren't well informed getting burned.
36:20
And as much as you want to protect people from this, I
36:23
don't think the way they did it. And you know what, during Gary
36:28
Gensler's tenure, what's the right way to go about it?
36:30
Obviously, This is why we tried to go on the show and educate
36:33
people. And essentially, you get scammed
36:35
texts and emails just like don't respond.
36:38
Maybe call, call your exchange directly.
36:41
And then, you know, they'll tell you, oh, no, that's a scam.
36:44
So there is a rise of scams going on right now.
36:47
So, you know, and kind of take the good with the bad here you,
36:51
you are seeing scams rise. Maybe they were holding the
36:53
floodgates back. And like you said, if this new
36:57
administration is going to be more crypto friendly, and I say
37:00
that, you know, without quotes, it seems like they're going to
37:04
unleash the tsunami of scams. And from our perspective, if
37:08
you're Bitcoin only, that's just cover for us.
37:10
And it's like, OK, hey, if they want to unleash everything, then
37:13
most people are going to figure out that Bitcoin's the only
37:15
thing you really want to invest in.
37:17
I mean like if you, if you bought Trump coin or Melania
37:20
coin or any of that stuff or Yeezy coin, all of the coins
37:25
from people, they're absolutely wrecked and the only thing that
37:29
is holding really good values. Of course, Bitcoin.
37:32
This is why we're Bitcoin only. This is why the only thing you
37:34
should be buying is Bitcoin. It also makes your life easier.
37:37
Like you don't have to think about anything.
37:38
You don't have to look at trading view every single day
37:40
unless you want to. Unless you're obsessed with the
37:42
price, you just buy Bitcoin, store it, go chill.
37:45
It's the easiest way to live it. It literally simplifies your
37:48
life. Anyways, let's go into the news
37:52
because we do have an interesting news story coming
37:54
out of Canada. And then I might RIP through
37:58
this guys because I want to give Mitchell as much time as
38:01
possible to break down his thesis on why the four year
38:06
cycle is over. You guys know I've been talking
38:08
about this on the show constantly.
38:10
I've been constantly quoting Mitchell about this because I've
38:13
been on the fence as much as I really do believe Q4 is going to
38:17
be extremely bullish. If you're looking at the Bitcoin
38:21
market structure, things have fundamentally changed since the
38:24
ETF was launched and those are just facts you cannot ignore.
38:28
So tail end of the show, we're going to have a huge
38:30
conversation about the four year cycle being ended, but before
38:34
that you guys got to hear the story from Canada.
38:37
It's absolutely insane. I want to give a shout out to
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All right guys, we are back. OK, so check this story out.
40:36
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police executes a record seizure
40:42
of more than $56,000,000 in cryptocurrency, So the Eastern
40:48
Region has carried out the largest cryptocurrency seizure
40:50
in Canadian history. Thanks to the work of
40:53
investigators specialized in financial crime, cybercrime, and
40:57
cryptocurrencies, an estimated sum of over $56 million was
41:01
recovered from the platform Trade Ogre.
41:04
This also marks the first time that a cryptocurrency exchange
41:07
platform has been dismantled by Canadian law enforcement.
41:11
The Money Laundering Investigative team opened the
41:14
file in June of 2024 following a tip from Europol.
41:18
The investigation found that the platform contravene Canadian
41:22
laws and regulations. Specifically, it failed to
41:24
register with the Financial Transactions and Reports
41:27
Analysis Center of Canada as a money service businesses and did
41:32
not identify its clients. Investigators have reason to
41:35
believe that the majority of funds transacted on Trade Ogre
41:38
came from criminal sources. The main attraction of this type
41:42
of platform, which doesn't require users to identify
41:44
themselves to make an account, is that it hides the source of
41:47
funds. This is a common tactic used by
41:49
criminal organizations that launder money.
41:52
The transaction data obtained from the platform will be
41:54
analyzed and charges may follow. The investigation is what's it
42:00
say is ongoing. So the news, maybe this news in
42:05
and of itself isn't the biggest news story.
42:07
What followed or rather what preceded this official press
42:10
release is where the crazy news goes.
42:12
And and you're just like, what world do we live in right now?
42:15
But anyways, the point remains the same for us here, which is
42:19
what we constantly tell you. Do not leave your Bitcoin on
42:23
exchanges if you are a trader, which we don't recommend.
42:28
Maybe that's the only reason why you keep money on an exchange,
42:32
but for everyone else, This is why it is so important to make
42:37
sure you withdraw your Bitcoin from exchanges because this
42:40
could happen to almost any exchange.
42:42
We've seen it happen in the past, we've seen it happen in
42:45
the present. And you do not want to just
42:48
leave your Bitcoin on the exchange because you never know
42:51
what's actually happening on the background.
42:53
And you can wake up 1 morning like the people from trade Ogre
42:56
and lose all of your funds here. Now, of course, this exchange
42:59
isn't that big. 56,000,000 not the biggest exchange, but the
43:04
point remains the same. This is why we always harp on
43:06
this idea of you need to withdraw your Bitcoin from
43:10
exchanges because of this very thing.
43:12
If you are just buying Bitcoin, you're only doing half of what
43:17
you should be doing. The other half is taking that
43:19
Bitcoin off in exchange, you need to secure the keys of your
43:23
Bitcoin. So that's the initial PSA, but
43:26
this is where things start to get a little interesting.
43:30
So Lola, you guys know I love Lola.
43:32
Her and the rage have been doing really good coverage on stuff.
43:36
She started covering this and she goes Canada sees 56 million
43:39
from Trey Ogre customers because they have quote, reason to
43:43
believe. Again, it doesn't seem like they
43:45
got facts here. They just have reason to believe
43:48
that the majority of funds came from criminal sources.
43:51
Why? Because it's a no KYC exchange
43:53
and it's a common tactic used by criminal organization to launder
43:57
money. Again, no charges have been
43:59
filed and literally no actual evidence of criminal activity by
44:02
trade ogre users appears to exist, but authorities are
44:06
already considering forfeiting the funds on behalf of the
44:09
state. And of course, they're asking
44:11
for tips on illegal activity involving Trade Ogre.
44:14
Naturally, I just called their hotline and let them know that I
44:17
have credible evidence of $56 million of Trade Ogre fund being
44:21
involved in theft. So look, they took down this
44:26
estate, this exchange with just reasons to believe and no
44:29
factual evidence here. And the craziest part about this
44:34
is how we all heard about this is, is how the public learned
44:39
about this before we got the press release.
44:42
And apparently the Canadian police announced the asset
44:46
seizure in an opera turn or something.
44:49
You can see here crypto acids controlled by the RCMP crypto
44:54
actix control port la GRC. So they officially announced
44:59
this in an op return before we got the official press release.
45:05
And like what is going on? They seized the exchange.
45:10
They announced it in an op return before we get the press
45:13
release. Maybe the, you know, Bitcoin
45:15
knots guys are right about stuff, but what wild times guys?
45:21
Like, we didn't, we heard about this in an op return, that this
45:25
exchange was shut down, that they seized $56 million
45:29
basically on a hunch, and then they later confirm this in an
45:35
official press release. Like what is going on here?
45:40
We live in such strange times. They're going to shut down an
45:42
exchange and they're going to do an opera return message that
45:46
yeah, we officially shut it down.
45:48
I'm sure the whole core versus notch debate is now getting
45:52
kicked into OverDrive. And they're like, see, I told
45:55
you this is a a nation state attack.
45:59
Look, we have the off return message to prove it, which
46:02
really leads down to another conversation that these
46:06
institutions, these powers that be, however you want to frame
46:09
it, they're not as naive as you might like to believe.
46:13
I think they really understand what is going on here.
46:15
But publicly they have to tell you, you know, oh, we gotta, you
46:20
know, research this, look into this, it's not safe, etcetera,
46:23
etcetera. But I think they're well way
46:25
more versed in how Bitcoin actually works and how these
46:29
exchanges actually works and they lead us on to believe so.
46:33
I don't know. I thought that was insane.
46:34
Not only did they shut down an exchange, they sent an off
46:37
return message showing us telling us they shut it down
46:41
before we even got the official press release.
46:43
Like we, we live in some chaotic times to say the least.
46:47
Absolutely insane. Anyways, Mitch, what's your
46:50
thoughts on this man? Yeah.
46:52
I mean, that's like they're dancing on the grave, right?
46:54
It's the Fortnite emote where after you shoot the guy or
46:57
Fortnite emote where you shoot the guy and then you, you know,
47:00
L on the forehead, hand in the crotch, dancing all over them,
47:03
taking their Bitcoin and then on chain leaving a message, hey,
47:07
these funds now belong to the Canadian government.
47:09
It's interesting to see. And you, you bring up a good
47:11
point, which is that these institutions, which, like I said
47:14
earlier, are just people, they probably know a lot more than
47:18
they're leading on. And not to get all tinfoil hat
47:21
and, and, and all that, but they definitely have people on
47:25
Bitcoin X that work at these institutions and they're trying
47:29
to blend in as normal. So always be vigilant out there
47:31
and, and you know, kind of confirm who, who you're talking
47:34
to. If you've never met them at a
47:35
conference and they're messaging you trying to, you know, incite
47:39
you to violence or any kind of criminal activity, just be
47:43
cautious. Don't don't engage with any of
47:44
that. So always be vigilant to out on
47:47
the Internet one. 100% yeah guys, I'm sorry to inform you
47:51
that the cute Asian girl in your DMS is actually a bad OK?
47:58
And she works for FinCEN. Yeah, she's actually a Fed.
48:02
All right, guys, I hate to burst your bubble.
48:05
I didn't mean to inform you of such bad news on a Friday, but
48:10
yeah, no, I I think that is also a great point.
48:12
Like there is a lot of people and I actually heard some a
48:15
crazy story from a friend and I and I don't really want to dox
48:18
him or like talk about that, but he basically called me.
48:21
He's like, bro, I think I just talked to a fed today and I'm
48:24
like, what do you mean? He works out a Bitcoin company.
48:26
He's like, yeah, it was strange. So hey, you know, as Mitch was
48:30
saying, definitely be very cautious right now as we do grow
48:36
and mature as an industry and in market cap, I think this is only
48:42
going to get stranger and we're only going to see even more wild
48:44
things happen. And you know, you don't want to
48:46
get caught up in in that dragnet here.
48:49
You don't want to be a casualty here.
48:50
So to, you know, the Bitcoin and ONS, my, my, my opsec is burnt
48:54
here. But for you guys out there, I
48:57
would take it a lot more seriously as Bitcoin gets bigger
49:00
because things are starting to get a, a little crazy.
49:05
And I, I think this is just one of those examples of like what
49:08
is going on in the world. We're getting off return
49:11
messages of seizures from literal authorities here.
49:15
But am I surprised Canada at this point, they're super famous
49:19
for, you know, not liking Bitcoin.
49:22
It is crazy that they pretty much have like no actual
49:26
evidence to do this. It's, it's really an attack.
49:28
They're just like, we don't like this.
49:30
We're going to basically make any excuse to shut this down.
49:33
And This is why we always say, hey, if you want to own Bitcoin,
49:38
if you actually want to own Bitcoin, you need to take it
49:41
into custody because they can never shut off your Bitcoin
49:45
savings. But if you leave it on an
49:47
exchange, you can wake up overnight and that Bitcoin's
49:49
gone. So if you've never secured your
49:52
Bitcoin, if you don't own a Bitcoin wallet, the more
49:55
examples we give you, hopefully one of them gets you to the
49:58
point where you buy a hardware wallet and you start taking your
50:01
Bitcoin into custody or at the very least you know a hot wallet
50:04
until you get a hardware wallet like you need to take this
50:08
Bitcoin off exchanges. If it's just sitting on an
50:10
exchange, it's, it's liable to one day not be there and you do
50:15
not want to be in that position. We've seen this happen so many
50:18
times in Bitcoin's history that This is why we constantly tell
50:22
you this is like the most important thing to be doing is
50:25
securing your Bitcoin. So anyways, let's keep it moving
50:28
'cause I, I really want to get into this conversation about the
50:30
end of the four year cycle. Spicy takes to end up on Friday.
50:34
We'll be right back in one minute.
50:39
I want to give a shout out to our partner Hive Digital
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freedom. OK, guys, we are back.
52:42
All right, Mitch floor is all yours.
52:45
As I was telling you guys, I I've literally been quoting you
52:48
on the show multiple times since you first started sharing this
52:51
meme and I will pull up what you just shared.
52:56
So we're going to just have an open discussion here or rather
52:58
it's going to be Mitchell making the case that the four year
53:01
cycle is over. And then and then we'll chat
53:04
about it a little bit. So I'll pull up this what you
53:06
just shared with us, Mitch and here you go, man.
53:09
Why do you believe the Bitcoin four year cycle is over?
53:13
Awesome. Thank you, Opti.
53:15
Well, feel free to stop me at any time too.
53:17
If I say something and you're like that's stupid.
53:19
I disagree. Let's talk about it.
53:21
So to start, fundamentally something's different since the
53:25
ETFs were launched and we talked about this a lot at the
53:27
beginning of the show, but this chart here simply shows the
53:30
Bitcoin price action with post ETF over here shaded in Gray.
53:36
The largest dip since the ETF launched is 30%.
53:40
Pre ETF we had four instances and where Bitcoin drew down 75%.
53:44
Totally different ball game after the ETF was created.
53:47
Furthermore, we don't have these massive blow off tops.
53:50
So this green area on this chart here, it shows the year over
53:54
year percent change in the Bitcoin price.
53:57
And so since the ETF was created, it's consistently been
54:01
50% CAGR to 100% CAGR every year.
54:04
Bitcoin hasn't been down on a year over year basis, but it
54:07
also hasn't had these explosive moves to the upside.
54:10
So yeah, to start, fundamentally something's different.
54:14
We'll continue to unpack this volatility.
54:17
It's down on all time frames. A month, 1/4 a year after this
54:21
red line, that's the ETF volatility is much lower than it
54:25
was pre ETF. Same story on chain data.
54:29
When we look at realized profits and unrealized profits this year
54:33
post ETF, there's never, there's not these wild extremes of
54:36
massive unrealized profit or loss.
54:39
Same when you just look at realized profit and loss on
54:42
chain. So when you measure the price of
54:44
Bitcoin at that time a UTXO was created versus the time that
54:48
UTXO is sent, you can gauge whether or not that coin
54:52
effectively sold at a profit or loss.
54:55
When we adjust it for market cap post ETF, consistently, the
55:00
market's realizing profits, but it's not at these extreme
55:03
multiples that it was before the ETF.
55:05
So something's different fundamentally.
55:07
What has changed? Now we can unpack what that is,
55:10
which as we've talked about a lot of it is institutions.
55:14
So this chart here shows bitcoins market cap in black and
55:18
the realized cap in orange, which is the sum of all Bitcoin
55:23
based on the price they last moved.
55:24
So right now realized cap is about a trillion dollars, which
55:28
means a trillion dollars has been put into the Bitcoin
55:31
network to be stored, to have that value stored.
55:34
And this green line simply measures the multiple between
55:36
the market cap and the realized cap.
55:39
So when the green line goes way up, the market is pricing a huge
55:42
multiple on inflows into Bitcoin.
55:45
So new capital comes in the market, the market reacts
55:48
wildly. You can see that here in the
55:50
green line. Sometimes though, in bear
55:53
markets, the market reacts totally opposite to capital
55:56
inflows or capital outflows. And so that's when the the
55:59
multiple here goes to extreme lows.
56:01
So you can see massive volatility in the multiple.
56:04
And it's like Bitcoin was this nascent technology, the market
56:07
doesn't wasn't sure how to price it and reacted super wildly to
56:11
inflows. But again, the same story post
56:13
ETF, the reaction to inflows is a lot more consistent and
56:17
predictable. The the market value to realize
56:20
value ratio is oscillated in this range between 1.5 and 2.5.
56:24
And and remember that for later as we dive a little bit deeper.
56:29
This is where I started to start to nerd out a little bit on the
56:31
report using my My vibe coding skills.
56:34
Now with statistical analysis. So if you do a logarithmic
56:38
regression in statistics, this just tells you you have a
56:42
dependent variable and an independent variable.
56:45
So the independent variable being the realized cap or
56:48
inflows into Bitcoin and the dependent variable being the
56:51
market cap or the price. So how does the market respond
56:55
to new capital inflows? And what's interesting,
56:58
obviously, you know, straight line up and to the right.
57:00
So there's a strong correlation between inflows and the price.
57:02
Of course that makes sense, but the how the market reacts to
57:05
that specifically has changed a lot post ETF.
57:10
So this is the volatility of the residuals.
57:12
So the difference between if you if you have a realized cap value
57:16
of X and based on that value you would predict the market cap to
57:20
be Y. How far off is your prediction
57:23
from the actual market cap? That's what this line tells us.
57:26
And so before the ETF, huge variance in the, the residuals
57:31
first post ETF, it's it's a lot lower.
57:34
And then here's AI love. This is probably my favorite
57:37
chart in the whole report is this box and whiskers plot which
57:39
plots the residual. So this difference between how
57:42
we would expect the market to react to inflows and how it
57:45
actually reacts pre ETF is over here on the left.
57:49
You've got a huge range, a huge spread here.
57:51
These lines are the, the, the IQR, so the inter quartile range
57:55
and the dots are just the actual raw values.
57:58
Post ETF, the spread is, is much, much tighter.
58:02
And so the story here is that after the ETF, you don't have
58:05
this irrational retail driven boom and bust like unpredictable
58:11
reaction to inflows. Now the market is basically 1 to
58:15
1 reacting to capital inflows. Now there's still a multiple,
58:18
right? If we go back to this chart,
58:20
there's a, you know, a 1 1/2 to 2X multiple on capital inflows
58:24
coming in. But the, the variance is, it's
58:27
far, far less than it was pre ETF.
58:29
It's it's a lot more predictable.
58:32
And then so we can kind of unpack previous cycles, right,
58:35
because this, the idea of this report is the four year cycle is
58:39
over. What caused the four year
58:40
cycles? Well, the halvings, that's what
58:42
happens every four years. This is the core ethos behind
58:46
the four year cycles is that these halvings create a supply
58:49
shock, which causes an exponential boom in the Bitcoin
58:52
price, followed by a bust. And there's some truth to that.
58:57
But when you look at the numbers, the 2024 Having's
59:00
relative impact of supply and demand is nothing compared to
59:04
the 2012 or the 2016 having. It's simply a matter of there's
59:09
already something like 20 million Bitcoin in circulation.
59:12
Dropping the amount of Bitcoin mined daily from 900 to 450 is
59:16
not driving the supply demand dynamics to 'cause this massive
59:20
boom you've got sailor in these institutions buying thousands of
59:24
Bitcoin every single week. You know that marginal decrease
59:26
in in supply issuance almost irrelevant.
59:30
I said this before we started the show, but the new cycle to
59:32
watch out for is long term holder supply and just holder
59:37
behavior in general. So I probably should have zoomed
59:39
this chart in a little bit more towards this specific time
59:42
frame. But if if you pay careful
59:44
attention, what you can see here is in the orange, this is the
59:47
change in supply held by long term holders.
59:50
So that's about six months on chain.
59:53
You know, we might think of a long term holder as someone
59:55
who's held for 10 years, diamond hands.
59:56
But from an on chain perspective, it's it's about 6
59:59
months. And you could see here when the
1:00:02
Bitcoin price goes up, you see them start to sell.
1:00:05
So that's this drop in, in the orange, the the drop in the
1:00:09
orange value here, that's long term holders.
1:00:11
They sell into strength. And we put ourselves into the
1:00:15
shoes of the new market participants.
1:00:17
These institutional guys we talked about all show that came
1:00:20
in after the ETF. For them, a 50% return is guide
1:00:25
to your returns. If they can get that in a single
1:00:27
year or six months, like that's, you know, they're getting their
1:00:29
quarterly bonus. They're they've done great.
1:00:31
They're used to stocks, which might give them 10 to 15% on a
1:00:34
Goodyear or bonds, which could give them 5% on a Goodyear.
1:00:38
So if they've held Bitcoin for six months and all of a sudden,
1:00:42
you know, Bitcoin goes up 50% because of, you know, various
1:00:46
catalysts in the market, they're going to sell into that.
1:00:48
And we can see that on chain. We can see the, since the ETFs
1:00:52
were created initially, the ETF was created January of 2024.
1:00:56
Bitcoin was $40,000 a coin roughly it went to 60,000 before
1:01:01
the end of Q1. And we saw on chain all these
1:01:05
long term holders sold some coins again in Q4 of last year,
1:01:09
Bitcoin went from 60K Trump wins huge catalyst to the market,
1:01:13
Bitcoin goes to 100K long term holders sold into that.
1:01:16
And so this has far more of an impact on supply and demand than
1:01:20
to having then the drop in issuance.
1:01:22
And so instead of seeing this supply shock happen every four
1:01:25
years, it can now be on 6 to 12 month terms because all we have
1:01:29
to do is just see what the coins are doing on chain.
1:01:32
Are they being accumulated? Are they being distributed?
1:01:34
What's going on there? That's the new supply side
1:01:37
catalyst. And then if we look at other
1:01:41
digital assets, I this is the one part of the report.
1:01:45
I'm a little like, if you want to think that I probably could
1:01:47
get the most pushback because Bitcoin, there's no one to one
1:01:50
thing to compare it to Bitcoins way different than Apple stock,
1:01:54
Amazon stock, Google stock, but the market has kind of treated
1:01:58
them very similarly. Obviously they don't, you know,
1:02:01
they're not non sovereign with no issuer, finite supply.
1:02:04
They don't have that, but the markets have treated them very
1:02:07
similarly. You ask any tratified guy,
1:02:08
they're, you know, Bitcoin's just another tech stock,
1:02:10
whatever. Not true, but that's how the
1:02:12
markets trade them. And historically this is this
1:02:15
was the trend for tech stocks super volatile early on.
1:02:19
You had massive booms, massive busts.
1:02:22
This chart here just shows the annualized volatility of some of
1:02:25
these these popular tech stocks. It's all adjusted for their IPO
1:02:30
or in bitcoins case, the genesis block so early on in their
1:02:33
history. This this black lines, the
1:02:34
average of them all incredibly volatile for the first hundred
1:02:38
months, 200 months. You know, it's the first like
1:02:40
roughly 5 to 15 years. Bitcoin super volatile
1:02:45
diminishes over time. Tech stocks super volatile
1:02:48
diminishes over time. This chart here shows the the
1:02:52
draw downs in some of these tech stocks.
1:02:54
So you can see again, same story early on, lots of big time draw
1:02:57
downs, but over time that those draw downs have diminished.
1:03:01
I think Bitcoin reasonably follows suit given that it's
1:03:03
traded similarly to these assets in the past.
1:03:06
I put this chart in here because I don't think Bitcoin's not
1:03:09
going to be volatile. Obviously, if you compare it to,
1:03:11
you know, stocks and bonds still super volatile.
1:03:14
I think I mentioned at the top of this segment, the largest
1:03:17
drawdown in Bitcoin's price since the ETF was created is 30%
1:03:22
for Bitcoiners. You know, that's nothing.
1:03:23
That's like, you know, I can, I can in the park.
1:03:27
Yeah. Dude, literally walk in the
1:03:28
freaking park. I held through a 75% drawdown.
1:03:31
You've held through a 75% drawdown, 30%'s nothing.
1:03:34
But for tradfy guys, that's like the end of the world.
1:03:37
That's you know. All.
1:03:38
The sky is falling, Chicken Little.
1:03:40
That's a disaster. So Bitcoin's still volatile
1:03:43
relative to traditional assets, of course, but relative to
1:03:47
Bitcoin's history, not so much. And so then I, I, I don't like
1:03:52
to make price predictions. So I kind of leave it up to the
1:03:54
reader and to the listener. What do you think the price will
1:03:57
be? Because Bitcoin we mentioned,
1:03:59
you know, it's going for every single store value asset in the
1:04:02
world, that's one quadrillion dollars worth of value.
1:04:06
It only needs a couple trillion dollars of capital inflows to
1:04:10
get some really, really high prices.
1:04:12
So this is like a three-dimensional chart here
1:04:15
you've got the realized cap on one axis, you've got the market
1:04:19
cap multiple on the other, which I put the the range that it's
1:04:23
been post ETF, which is about 1.8 to 2.5.
1:04:27
And then on the Z axis here, it converts to the Bitcoin price.
1:04:30
So you know, Bitcoin and I'll I'll actually Fast forward here,
1:04:34
but we'll go back to that chart. This is the realized cap post
1:04:38
ETF. It's growing at an annualized
1:04:40
rate of, no joke, $420 billion every 12 months if you just
1:04:45
continue that rate into the future, which I think is a
1:04:47
bearish case, right? Because we have more Bitcoin
1:04:50
treasury companies being created, more MicroStrategy
1:04:53
preferred stocks being created, all of that.
1:04:55
That's more funnels connecting trad FI to Bitcoin.
1:04:58
The more funnels there are, the more capital that can flow
1:05:00
through them. Also, the actual amount of
1:05:03
dollars in liquidity in the system is increasing.
1:05:05
So that's also more capital that can be put into Bitcoin.
1:05:08
But for the sake of being conservative and not too moon
1:05:10
boyish, let's just assume capital goes into Bitcoin at the
1:05:13
same rate it has since the ETFs were created.
1:05:17
That gives you a realized cap between 2 1/2 and 3 trillion by
1:05:20
2030. When you take the the range of
1:05:24
multiples that has existed post ETF on the market cap, that
1:05:28
gives you a Bitcoin price of anywhere from 230,000 to 320,000
1:05:32
by 2030 bearish. No.
1:05:35
I know it's super bearish, right?
1:05:36
But I think Bitcoin bores us to death along the way.
1:05:39
But this is when you math this, this out like this is still
1:05:42
crazy returns from a trad FI perspective.
1:05:45
And that's who's in the market now.
1:05:46
That's who's dictating where this thing goes.
1:05:48
So there's a lot there, and we can unpack all of it right now,
1:05:52
yeah. No, I mean, first of all, hold
1:05:54
on bars, absolutely incredible data to back up your thesis
1:06:02
here. I've literally just been more,
1:06:04
you know, left side of the bell curve.
1:06:05
I'm like, guys, just like just vibe this like your gut feeling.
1:06:09
Look at the price chart since the ETF was launched, there is a
1:06:14
fundamental change in how the structure works.
1:06:17
And I've really been, and maybe, maybe this is something you can
1:06:20
add on to your analysis, but I was really looking at the S&P
1:06:25
500 and just like just looking at how the S&P 500 moves, you
1:06:31
know, here actually, maybe, maybe I'll pull it up 'cause I,
1:06:33
I've done this before on the show.
1:06:36
But if you just look at the S&P 500 and you look at what Bitcoin
1:06:41
does it, it's starting to look exactly like what Bitcoin is
1:06:47
currently moving. So here we got Bitcoin.
1:06:50
Let me pull this up for you guys and and don't mind my
1:06:54
indicators. I've been using some gym 16
1:06:57
eights indicators. I really like them.
1:06:58
I don't know if they're right, but hey, it makes it makes me
1:07:01
feel better. All right, so look where this is
1:07:04
the weekly chart. Obviously you know the infamous
1:07:06
boom and bust cycles with like AU and then we got that double
1:07:10
top. That was really strange, but
1:07:13
ever since the 2023 bottom, it's just moving in.
1:07:17
You know this straight line, you know straight line up.
1:07:20
It's just like super boring. Oops, super boring, just boring
1:07:25
up. And I was looking at the S&P 500
1:07:31
and I will pull that up for you. And this is where I initially
1:07:35
kind of started feeling the same thing that you said.
1:07:37
And I'll I'll zoom out. So it's obviously not like a
1:07:39
1:00 to 1:00, but you can see like the structure is pretty
1:07:43
much the same, just straight up and to the right.
1:07:46
Yes, there's some kind of boom and bust cycles.
1:07:48
The draw downs are a lot less. But like this is S&P 501 month
1:07:52
candles again, I'm going to go back to the Bitcoin and we'll do
1:07:56
it in weeks because we don't have as many as many months
1:07:59
here. But it's oh, you can see here's
1:08:01
the month 1. So it doesn't really look the
1:08:03
same, which is why I'm saying it's not really like 1 to 1, but
1:08:08
it's just, it's starting to look the same thing.
1:08:10
And that's where I originally kind of started to really dive
1:08:15
into what you're saying because I've been seeing your tweets and
1:08:18
I'm like just on a gut feeling since the ETFs launch, since
1:08:21
there's like a new investor in the Bitcoin space, you're
1:08:25
starting to see that the market structure has changed.
1:08:28
And what's that one fundamental driver that's changed?
1:08:31
It's the ETF has been launched and of course institutional
1:08:34
capital is coming in. And This is why I've been saying
1:08:38
on the show for you guys, and I've been getting trolled and
1:08:40
some people like it, of why I'm now looking at the macro
1:08:44
markets. Not to be like a macro think
1:08:46
boy, but essentially to try to understand what their psychology
1:08:51
is and what their signals are and what they're trading against
1:08:54
because that's where all the capital's coming from.
1:08:57
And so This is why I'm looking at the macro markets and why I
1:09:00
even care about the FOMC meetings and stuff is because
1:09:03
they care about it. And they're the ones trading
1:09:05
this thing now in size. They're the ones that are moving
1:09:07
the Bitcoin price. And so I originally kind of got
1:09:10
that idea from wow, it just spit everywhere.
1:09:13
I originally got that idea. I my mouth's cotton mouths from
1:09:16
too much coffee earlier from just looking at the because you
1:09:20
guys know, I look at bond yields and I'll look at gold and I'll
1:09:23
look at the S&P 500 and I'll look at different, you know,
1:09:28
currency exchange rates now. And one day I was looking at the
1:09:31
S&P 500 and I was looking at the Bitcoin price since the ETF
1:09:35
launch. I'm like, maybe this is just a
1:09:37
very low IQ take, you know, correlation, causation type
1:09:42
view. But I'm like, it just looks
1:09:43
identical now. And the only thing that I could
1:09:46
really attribute that to is there's a new investor, there's
1:09:49
a new person buying Bitcoin and they're trading off different
1:09:53
signals. And so man, you know, I vibe, I
1:09:56
vibe coded this take and you just backed it up with all the
1:09:59
data I haven't seen. I didn't see the full report.
1:10:03
I've seen you tweet a couple of these things, but it does.
1:10:06
I think you made a very good case.
1:10:08
Now I think for everyone in the chat, they're probably going to
1:10:11
ask a few questions. Obviously the first one is so
1:10:15
volatility is over, no more parabolic runs, but that also
1:10:19
means no more bear markets. You think that's a fairway to
1:10:23
characterize this? Yes, that's.
1:10:25
Pretty much my thesis in a nutshell, I think the 30%
1:10:29
drawdown that we saw in 2024, that's generally the new normal
1:10:34
bear market. And it's kind of funny with
1:10:37
this, this thesis I've been promoting over the last couple
1:10:39
months, some people say I'm bearish like you jokingly said,
1:10:42
I'm bearish because I think, you know, Bitcoin 300K by 20-30.
1:10:46
Other people will say I'm bull tarted because I don't think
1:10:47
Bitcoin's going to have a 75% drawdown.
1:10:50
So I feel like the fact that I'm getting pressure from both sides
1:10:52
in a way gives me some more confidence about it.
1:10:55
But fundamentally, I don't think that we have these four year
1:10:59
cycles anymore because the the halvings are not as impactful in
1:11:03
the supply demand dynamics. I think you have to look at
1:11:05
other stuff. Like you said, you got to follow
1:11:07
these macro indicators. Now you don't have to if you
1:11:10
want to totally tune out the Bitcoin, you know, just dollar
1:11:13
cost average and accumulate and have a 10 year time horizon.
1:11:17
None of what we're talking about here really matters.
1:11:19
But if you're watching a Bitcoin news show, you probably don't
1:11:21
want to tune out everything entirely, right?
1:11:23
If you plan on spending any amount of capital within the
1:11:26
next year or two, you probably want to to follow some of this
1:11:29
stuff that's going on. And one of the, the primary
1:11:34
catalyst for Bitcoin is the macro side of things, which is
1:11:37
Fiat liquidity. And I think an interesting
1:11:40
dynamic though, is like the more that the Fiat liquidity expands,
1:11:44
the more, you know, the longer that inflation remains
1:11:46
consistently high, the more that these problems caused by that
1:11:51
will perpetuate, which could accelerate Bitcoin adoption in
1:11:54
some sense. So I think, you know, liquidity
1:11:56
has been on a an upwards trajectory all year long.
1:12:00
I don't think that will stop going into 2026.
1:12:03
So I think 2026 is going to be a green year for Bitcoin.
1:12:07
I'd think, Opti, you're going to have me on the show again.
1:12:10
December 2026, Bitcoins going to be up and it's going to, you
1:12:13
know, the green, green, green, red will be gone.
1:12:15
It'll be green, green, green, green.
1:12:17
And we're going to be able to look back on this moment and
1:12:20
say, yeah, we called it you with your vibes analysis, me with the
1:12:23
the data to back it up. I'm a fan of both and I think
1:12:26
both have their their position in the world.
1:12:29
Yeah, no, I mean, look, I I've said this before on the show.
1:12:35
I've said both things I'm going to say on the show 1 I'm like a
1:12:38
junkie. I'm Jones in for some parabolic
1:12:40
moves like this. You know, just barely kissing
1:12:45
all time high and then go sideways like I'm getting bored
1:12:48
to death out here. It's a.
1:12:51
Tease, man. And you're just like, like my
1:12:54
dopamine receptors are just so fried.
1:12:56
Like I only get excited when I see the price start running And
1:13:00
I'm like, man, we're not going to get those anymore.
1:13:02
Like, man, Ponzi's really over. This sucks.
1:13:05
Like, this is not what I signed up for.
1:13:08
But on the flip side, like going all in in Bitcoin, obviously
1:13:12
when I got into it, but going all in, like with my work and
1:13:15
career as well, like the bear market was pretty brutal.
1:13:18
And if I could avoid a bear market like the last one that we
1:13:22
went through, I think I'd probably be less stressful, you
1:13:26
know, like I think I'd be OK with no more 7580% draw downs.
1:13:31
If you know that, I guess you know, the trade off is we don't
1:13:35
get 10X returns a year or, you know, in a, in a cycle.
1:13:40
I mean, look, I want the 10X returns, but I, I'm also OK with
1:13:44
my savings not getting decimated by 85%.
1:13:48
So that would be a lot easier now that I'm like Turing, I'm
1:13:50
getting older. I'm like, OK, I look, I, I'd be
1:13:53
OK with my savings not getting destroyed here and I got to
1:13:56
figure out how to survive. But man, I, I'm Jones and I'm
1:13:59
Jones's for for the the parabolic run.
1:14:03
But I will. I'll add one thing to that.
1:14:05
I think a lot of the people that like, no, you're, you're an
1:14:08
idiot, of course we're going to have another 75% drop.
1:14:11
It's cope. It's cope because those people
1:14:13
did not buy in 2022 when we were down 75%, you know, that was it.
1:14:18
That was the moment where you should have been fully porting
1:14:20
into Bitcoin. And if you did that, you've had
1:14:23
a great last 2 1/2 years, three years, you're up over 500%.
1:14:27
If you bought Bitcoin when FTX went under a $16,000 a coin,
1:14:31
we're at $116,000 now. So that was the chance.
1:14:35
Now that's not to say all you know, you're too late into
1:14:37
Bitcoin, you missed the boat. If you continue to dollar cost
1:14:40
average and accumulate stats every single day, even if
1:14:43
Bitcoin has a quote UN quote modest compound annual growth
1:14:47
rate of 25% over the next 10 years, you're going to crush it.
1:14:51
You're going to do fantastic. You're going to be able to
1:14:52
provide for your family and all the things you want in this
1:14:55
life. So you're not too late to
1:14:57
Bitcoin, but I wouldn't, I wouldn't snort the hopium that
1:15:00
you're gonna get another chance to buy Bitcoin under 50K.
1:15:05
Love it. Okay, there is one thing that I
1:15:08
do wanna hit on. You were mentioning that the new
1:15:12
thing we should probably be watching is the inflows from
1:15:16
these institutions. You're not the only person that
1:15:18
I've seen recently say that again, I've I've been following
1:15:22
his name's like Jim 186 on Twitter.
1:15:25
He was literally like, he's like the first power law guy to say
1:15:29
it on the Bitcoin forum. But I really love his analysis
1:15:32
recently in in regards to like all the markets and Bitcoin.
1:15:35
He's super bullish, but he recently said that same thing.
1:15:38
He's like, look, guys, you got to acknowledge what's going on
1:15:42
and the institutions are the ones that are here.
1:15:45
Retail hasn't been seen. I've been I've been giving you
1:15:47
guys the data on this constantly on the show, like retail is
1:15:50
nowhere to be found. I don't know if you guys want
1:15:53
look at the charts, but like volumes low, you know, the the
1:15:56
more heuristic based perspective of Google trends, like it's just
1:16:00
not there. So retail isn't driving the
1:16:03
price of Bitcoin anymore. And if you can accept that, then
1:16:06
obviously it's institutions that are driving the cycles now or
1:16:10
rather the, the, the market of Bitcoin.
1:16:13
And like you mentioned earlier, now that we are kind of getting
1:16:17
to these points where the halving cycles aren't really,
1:16:21
you know, affecting the the amount of Bitcoin that's being
1:16:24
distributed. There is a new driver going on.
1:16:27
And he also was saying it's the inflows from institutions going
1:16:31
into ETFs or buying into corporate Bitcoin treasuries.
1:16:34
So and you had what you said 480 billion is kind of the yearly
1:16:40
inflow that that you kind of extended out to get those 2420.
1:16:45
Okay, yeah, of course, of course it is.
1:16:50
Now, I know you were joking and saying it's, you know, it might
1:16:53
sound bearish or conservative, like what you did is just
1:16:57
mapping the current demand from the institution, right?
1:17:00
And what we're seeing, I think even the news from today is like
1:17:04
that's most likely going to continue to go up.
1:17:07
So if you think that Mitchell is being bearish here, you know,
1:17:09
300K by 20-30, like we're just using the current data.
1:17:14
That's not to say, and I don't think black Swan's the right
1:17:18
word to say, but the the unexpected or rather more
1:17:21
expected view that these institutions are going to come
1:17:23
into Bitcoin in force. Those numbers are going to go
1:17:28
freaking. They're going to continue to go
1:17:30
up. So even your bullish chart is
1:17:32
like this is like, if nothing changes, this is what the price
1:17:38
is going to be which. Is not my base case.
1:17:40
I think we're going to see more Bitcoin treasury companies, more
1:17:44
non-us markets reach. We're going to see a lot more
1:17:46
institutional adoption. The red tape's going to fall
1:17:49
off. They're going to come in.
1:17:51
And I want to second what you said about the absence of
1:17:54
retail. Retail was in full force in 2021
1:17:58
because everyone got a $1200 stimulus check.
1:18:01
Now retail is broke. They are living on credit cards,
1:18:04
they have 3 roommates, they can barely afford to pay their
1:18:07
bills. Of course they don't have any
1:18:08
money to throw at assets, and if they do, they're going to put it
1:18:11
into DraftKings or Coinbase or Solana, you know, whatever.
1:18:16
So. Go play kinko ball on steak or
1:18:19
whatever. Yeah, exactly.
1:18:23
They're going to be buying Lotto tickets like that kind of thing.
1:18:25
So unfortunately, I think the the difference between like
1:18:30
Bitcoiners, I hate the word wealth inequality, but for all
1:18:33
intents and purposes, like wealth inequality is going to
1:18:36
continue to grow over the next 10 years.
1:18:38
Because you have a cohort of people that are buying assets
1:18:41
like Bitcoin and the stock market and real estate, and then
1:18:44
you have a total other cohort of people that aren't doing
1:18:46
anything like that. And the currency is going to
1:18:48
continue to debase. Those with assets are going to
1:18:51
get wealthier and those without assets are going to get poorer.
1:18:54
And so, you know, if you think there's tension in the world
1:18:56
now, I promise you it's going to probably get a whole lot worse.
1:19:00
Yeah, I'd totally agree with that. 100% would agree with
1:19:04
that. As we're seeing where if there's
1:19:09
a pendulum from peace and chaos, I think everyone looking at
1:19:14
where we are right now, we're we're teetering towards the like
1:19:17
over the Cliff of chaos. Like things are going to
1:19:20
continue to be even more extreme.
1:19:23
It's just things are wild right now.
1:19:26
OK, last question actually, Chad, if you guys have some
1:19:29
questions, ask it in the chat and I'll look it over.
1:19:32
Mitchell, looking, you know, on this thesis of the four year
1:19:36
cycle being over, what is your take on a bullish Q4?
1:19:41
Cuz I'm still betting on a bullish Q4 here.
1:19:44
I think we're gonna see the end of this year to see some real
1:19:50
action in Bitcoin. And I actually have a good chart
1:19:53
that I'm not gonna bring it up, but essentially it's saying
1:19:55
something on the lines of like 60 or 70% of all the gains in
1:19:59
Bitcoin historically over a 10 year time span happened after
1:20:02
October 3rd. You know, Q4 is usually when
1:20:06
things get super bullish. So does your data end of the
1:20:10
four year cycle, does that kind of negate that idea that Q4 is
1:20:13
still going to be bullish? Not at all.
1:20:16
I'm I'm very bullish for Q4. I think there's a few things we
1:20:19
can look at 1 is long term holders.
1:20:21
They sold off when we hit 125K, but that sell off has more or
1:20:25
less ended. We have gold making new all time
1:20:28
highs. We have this S&P 500 making new
1:20:30
all time highs ceaselessly. We have rate cuts coming in.
1:20:34
I'm I'm very bullish on Q4. I just don't I'm not bullish
1:20:37
enough to think that we're going to go up 10X and have this
1:20:39
massive blow off through my box. Yeah, I'm not saying.
1:20:42
That. Yeah, I think, I think Bitcoin
1:20:44
makes a new all time high before the end of the year certainly.
1:20:48
That that's still bearish bro. All time high.
1:20:50
What we're That's a freaking 6% gain by end of the year.
1:20:55
Isn't it weird how we're only we're only 7% off the highs, but
1:20:59
it feels like we've been at like through a drastic bear market.
1:21:02
I don't know if you agree. Yeah, you've got a core versus
1:21:04
knots people fighting. You've got, you know, all of the
1:21:08
the Bitcoin treasury people, not the companies.
1:21:11
I still think the companies are going to rebound, but the retail
1:21:13
degenerates that didn't born into Bitcoin at all and then the
1:21:16
treasury companies like got their attention.
1:21:19
They're totally tapped out now. I think it feels like a bear
1:21:21
market but we're only like a finger snap from an all time
1:21:24
high. Yeah, no, 100%.
1:21:26
I mean, if the historical data does kind of stay with us,
1:21:34
October, November are going to be super bullish.
1:21:36
And I was actually talking with a friend and he's like the only
1:21:39
other time we had a green September or actually maybe it
1:21:43
was 2 times I, I forget, I forget the data here.
1:21:46
We got like, you know, 150% increase over October and
1:21:51
November. And so like, I'm with you.
1:21:53
And I think what you're saying does align with that idea like,
1:21:56
hey, we could see 250 by end of the year.
1:22:01
And that doesn't necessarily mean we're going to see it, you
1:22:03
know, a 10X parabolic blow off top.
1:22:06
It'll just be kind of like this slow.
1:22:09
Maybe it'll it'll go sideways until October and then it pumps,
1:22:12
it'll go sideways into November. It pumps a little bit.
1:22:15
So maybe that's how this works. Who knows.
1:22:18
But I do want to finish this up with something we said earlier.
1:22:21
Is this idea of, you know, slow and boring to $1,000,000, the
1:22:27
stairway to heaven. It's going to bore us to death,
1:22:31
but it does seem if you're looking at the chart, what's
1:22:33
going on with the price right now, it's just like a stepwise
1:22:36
function forever, up and up and to the right forever, but no
1:22:40
more fun and no more fireworks. Yeah, more or less.
1:22:44
And I think that's part of why you've seen the Bitcoin treasury
1:22:47
thing blow up this year. I think reason number one is you
1:22:51
had Trump get in and deregulate and that gave a lot more
1:22:53
companies confidence to go into this.
1:22:56
But two is people in the Bitcoin world are actually craving more
1:23:00
volatility because Bitcoins gotten a lot more boring than it
1:23:03
was historically. So they're going into, to all of
1:23:06
these treasury companies to try to make, you know, I think
1:23:09
someone maybe is American Huddle said, you know, altcoins are not
1:23:12
a time machine to becoming an OG.
1:23:14
Neither are Bitcoin treasury companies.
1:23:16
But I, I do think there's value there.
1:23:18
I think that's the way that more capital gets into the Bitcoin
1:23:21
ecosystem. Just like the ETFs, Bitcoin
1:23:24
treasury companies offer a product market fit to the tradfy
1:23:27
world. So I'm I am bullish on Bitcoin.
1:23:30
I just don't think we get this 10X in in a 12 month span that
1:23:33
it's done historically, but that's OK.
1:23:36
Still going up into the right forever.
1:23:40
Man, there goes all the fun. You're.
1:23:42
I thought we were going to get bullish here.
1:23:43
Now it's just like, guys, it's over.
1:23:45
The Ponzi's over. We're trading the S&P 500, dude.
1:23:49
We're boomers now. We just trade the S&P 500 we're
1:23:53
selling. Covered calls.
1:23:54
We're we're trying to get cash flow, we're listening to fed
1:23:56
meetings. I know.
1:23:58
Wrap it up, yo. What happened to us?
1:24:00
When did we get old? What is happening?
1:24:04
Oh, man. All right.
1:24:06
Well, Mitch, I think you absolutely killed that segment.
1:24:08
I don't know. Do you have anything else you
1:24:10
want to add? Is there anything we didn't
1:24:11
touch on? No.
1:24:13
The only thing I'll add is if you're interested in
1:24:15
accumulating Bitcoin, blockware makes it really easy to mine
1:24:19
Bitcoin, and we talked about this the last time I was on the
1:24:22
show, But you can write off 100% of the the cost of mining
1:24:26
hardware thanks to new guidelines from the big
1:24:28
beautiful bill. So if you buy $100,000 of
1:24:31
miners, you can offset $100,000 of income.
1:24:34
So starve Uncle Sam of his precious Fiat and stack sats.
1:24:39
It's a pretty good deal. I think so.
1:24:41
Oh right someone someone on rumble says opti show a chart
1:24:46
MSE and P and call it a Bitcoin meme for the jet.
1:24:49
I already did that bro, I already did that.
1:24:51
OK though again before we run out and I forget I am giving you
1:24:57
guys SAT so make sure you pull out your lightning wallets.
1:25:01
I am getting ready over here, logging in and we will give you
1:25:05
guys some Bitcoin so again, as I mentioned, when you sign up to
1:25:12
Bitcoin well, you get these wishing well rewards and you get
1:25:17
a chance to win a million sets. We'll see if you guys are lucky
1:25:21
enough if someone's lucky enough to get a million sets today, so
1:25:23
here we go we're going to play it live.
1:25:25
Hopefully your Lightning wallets are ready.
1:25:28
All right, while we wait, man, Mitch, I think you absolutely
1:25:31
killed that. It I, I love that you had the
1:25:33
data. All right, there you guys go.
1:25:35
First one, first come, first serve. 540 stats for you guys.
1:25:40
Again, This is why you should watch on your television 'cause
1:25:43
we give away free big. Well, when we remember, we give
1:25:46
away free big coins. I kind of forget.
1:25:49
But yeah, no, Mitch, I love, I love those charts, man.
1:25:52
It, it really does show what I've kind of been feeling.
1:25:58
And I think, as you said, all of the fighting that we've been
1:26:01
seeing, you know, us here on the show, just being super bored.
1:26:06
Like it does feel like a bear market because we're all just
1:26:09
like being bored to death. And we really don't know what is
1:26:11
happening. And we won't know until, you
1:26:14
know, the end of this year, beginning of 2026.
1:26:16
But I think the, you know, having some data, you know,
1:26:20
obviously maybe it's like my monkey brain just like seeing
1:26:22
pretty charts and data. I'm like, hey, it's confirming
1:26:24
my bias. I totally believe this.
1:26:27
You made, you know, you made a, you made a a hard case to debunk
1:26:30
there. It does seem to be Bitcoin does
1:26:34
seem to be losing volatility up and down.
1:26:40
You know, those those correlations to tech stocks is
1:26:43
definitely one of the big memes right now.
1:26:45
Like, you know, Bitcoins, just technology, it should act and
1:26:48
trade like tech stocks. I think the biggest thing for me
1:26:52
is obviously the ETF. And when since institutions are
1:26:55
here, they, you know, you, it's like the, you can't teach an old
1:26:59
dog new tricks. And even though they have this
1:27:02
new very amazing technology, a new money here, they're still
1:27:07
going to trade like they're used to.
1:27:09
And I think the biggest point for you is like, hey, you know,
1:27:12
making 2550% in six months, that's like a freaking killer
1:27:18
year for people. And they just lock it in.
1:27:21
It's like us, I don't know, I don't know if you did the same
1:27:23
thing, but when I first got into Bitcoin, I put like 100 bucks in
1:27:27
and the next day it went to like 110 bucks.
1:27:29
It went from like 10,000 to like 10,000, like $10,100 or 11,000
1:27:34
or something. And I got a 10% gain and I was
1:27:38
like, I'm a genius trader, let's sell this.
1:27:41
And then it kept running. I'm like, oh shit, like I don't
1:27:43
even have enough money to buy back in.
1:27:46
I'm guessing that's what a lot of people are doing.
1:27:48
They're like, hey man, lock in 30% gains.
1:27:51
I'm going to be cool. I'm going to look like a genius.
1:27:54
So we are seeing there is a new investor in the market.
1:27:58
There's a, there's a new animal spirit that's being injected
1:28:01
into Bitcoin. And for better or worse, it's
1:28:03
coming from Wall Street. Like, you know, you, you're
1:28:07
better off not like being mad about it versus trying to
1:28:10
understand their psychology and what they think and how they
1:28:13
kind of act in the market. So you can position yourself
1:28:16
better and you don't give yourself false hope.
1:28:19
But with that being said, Mitch, I, I still do have false hope.
1:28:23
We're going to pump Q4. It's gonna.
1:28:27
Get frosty. Yeah, dude, I'm I'm fully along
1:28:30
with my Personal Capital, my career, my reputation.
1:28:34
It's all along Bitcoin. So, you know, if I'm wrong to
1:28:36
the upside on this, like I I'll be wrong, but I'll have made a
1:28:40
lot of money in the past. I will.
1:28:41
Be all right. I mean, hey, look, I will, I
1:28:46
will put a wrinkle in here. This has no data.
1:28:50
This is just vibe. This is just vibe mashing what
1:28:53
Mitchell said. We're going to get a parabolic
1:28:56
blow off top, but we're not going to get an 80% draw down,
1:29:00
OK? That's it.
1:29:03
That's the hopium. That's what I want, yeah.
1:29:05
That's the that's the Optihopium for Friday anyways, guys, yeah,
1:29:09
I think I'm, I think I'm lagging over here.
1:29:11
So I I got to I got to get off here today, but go follow
1:29:15
Mitchell Hoddle. He's one of my favorite zoomers
1:29:17
out there. Absolute goat.
1:29:18
This kids killing it. It's going places.
1:29:21
I wish I had Bitcoin at your age.
1:29:23
My life would be completely different.
1:29:25
So good to see you, Mitch. And you know, I'm, I'm glad to
1:29:28
be fighting in the trenches with you, bro.
1:29:31
Likewise. I always enjoy coming on the
1:29:33
show. It's been a blast.
1:29:37
Let's go the deal. I I think I'm.
1:29:40
I think my internet's lagging on here.
1:29:41
Yeah, I think I'm cooked. All right, so see you see you
1:29:46
you guys, see you guys. Is this working?
1:29:50
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