Latest / Financial Survival Network / Can the US find its former greatness and become a leader again? - John Rubino #5786

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Can the US find its former greatness and become a leader again? - John Rubino #5786 · Financial Survival Network

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Welcome you are listening to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
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Carrie Letts. Well, we have got a lot to talk about today.
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John Robino is with us. Now find him at Robino dot substack dot com.
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Link in the show notes, Well, John, inflation is going down,
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so I guess we were wrong and you can print money to infinity and
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prices won't go up so much. Is that correct? Hey, Jerry,
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We're at an inflection. I'm gonna go out on the line and say we're
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at an inflection here where things are going to start pull in the other direction.
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Well, what happened was, well, inflation spike because we created an
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insane amount of new money dumped into the system, and we raised interest rates
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in reaction to ten percent inflation, and interest rates are now up enough to
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basically we want to say break the back of inflation, because the last two
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inflation readings, which which happened just last week, were disinflationary. The producer
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price index was negative and consumer price index was fairly reasonable, you know.
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And the reason that that's happening is that interest rates at the level they've been
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for the last six or some months are breaking a lot of different parts of
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the economy. I just pulled up a chart of the lumber price as kind
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of an indicator of what's happening in the housing market, and lumber is down
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by more than fifty percent in the last six months, which means there's not
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that much demand from housing or lumber, because that was what was spiking it
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before, along with some supply chain issues. UM and housing is a big
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part of the economy. And wolf Richter is he was some really interesting stuff
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on the commercial real estate market where he's going out and finding office building transactions
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and they're terrifying. There's a lot of different buildings that have been on the
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market for let's say I'll just pull the number of out of pin Era five
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hundred million dollars and it doesn't sell, they take it off the market,
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they bring it back on at T twenty or something like that, and it
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still doesn't sell all. Yeah, yeah, and so a lot of big
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developers and real estate investors are looking at massive losses away and yeah, well,
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um, what do they call that? Jingle mail? And yet for
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office buildings, right, there was well, in one of wolf Richter's articles,
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there was a building that had a one hundred percent loss and that was
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why they just turned it back over. And there were some derivatives attached to
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it that made it literally went down by one hundred percent from the price that
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was paid for it not long before that. And the scary part of this,
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I mean, that's already scary because that's several trillion dollars that the government
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might have to bail out in the next year. But the local and regional
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banks that almost got whacked because of the Silicon Valley bank failure, you know,
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they they had a near death experience just recently. Now, they owned
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a lot of real estate paper because that's their business model, is that we
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take in deposits, yeah, and then land locally to real estate developers and
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mortgages and things like that. So they're on the hook for a lot of
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this stuff. So the banking crisis is going to enter a new stage if
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real estate commercial real estate tanks so on the same thing with apartments too.
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By the way, the the number of apartment purchases out there has plunged now
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there was nobody's buying apartment buildings anymore. And rents are starting to go down
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with a lot of places. So there's an awful lot of commercial real estate
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that is now out of the boom phase and into the bust things. And
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there's a lot of losses that are going to be spread around out there,
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and that's really deflation hearing. So like I said, I'll go out on
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them and say, inflation is no longer a real issue, and we're going
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to be looking at the opposite, maybe deflation by year end, and we're
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going to be in recession. So the FED is probably going to raise one
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more time point two five percent and that's going to be it. And most
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other central banks will have stopped by them too. So we're going to be
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in a very different market six months from now than what we were six months
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ago. And that's you know, that's got to impact the stock market.
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So if all of that other stuff happens, you would expect a stock market
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bust. In other words of bear market in equities along with it. So
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yeah, it's probably time to be extremely defensive and maybe to be going short
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a lot of these things. Yeah, well, I figured out what they
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can do with all those ghost malls out there. Is this really simple matter.
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I think it will really work. They turn them into Tesla factories,
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into Giga factories because they're perfectly situated for that. They got access to highways,
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a lot of parking. It'll be perfect. Nobody will be able to
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buy the things, but I guess you know, Tesla is saying robotics,
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more AI in the factory will lead to much lower prices. The biggest component
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in the most products that you buy is actually labor. Many of them put
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it that way. So when you avoid the labor cost altogether and nobody has
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a job AI is handling it, doing the quality control, and then you
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could still afford to buy it on your government welfare payment. Right. Yeah,
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And you're right. Malls are in the category of stuff that's gonna go
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bankrupt here pretty soon because very few people shop at malls anymore, relatively speaking.
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And you know, and you're right, looking at a building, looking
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at a mall, all kinds of other uses come to mind, right,
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they could be gigantic columbles shelters. You just clearly downtown San Francisco resion processing
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centers. Yeah, yeah, that's right. A Texas mall could be converted
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to an immigration and then it could be also a bus station too, because
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you just load the illegal immigrants onto the buses and ship them up north up
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to yeah, go on the sanctuary cities and exactly exactly what Arizona can do
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that. So you put something in southern Arizona. I'm sure there's a mall
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down there that could be a and they can do how they're going small they
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build yeah the days in Shia. We can build malls in the United States,
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right, And there are actually cities talking about taking empty office buildings and
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turning them into low income housing and homeless shelters. That's already on a subject
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that's being debated. So, yeah, a lot of those will be repurposed.
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If you wind up living in one of those, you definitely want to
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get the unit losest to the elevator, all right, that will be prime
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real estate and one of those because you don't have the problem with repurposing,
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you know, office buildings, commercial office buildings, the bigger ones, they're
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so far from the elevator cores that you can't. You have a limited amount
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of windows to allocate to each unit, So most of these units that they
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cut up will literally be windowless units, which I guess they don't really care
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about shelter or shelter when you need it. I should mention because our next
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story is going to be gold isn't a quiet bowl market? Well it was
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until today. It's down forty four seventy as we speak in it's Friday,
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April fourteenth. Even silver, which was really strong, as down fifty nine
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cents. But it looks like somebody at the FED or the the PPT woke
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up and said, this gold thing's getting out of hand. And now it's
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under two thousand dollars or now. But we'll see how long this last.
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For Yeah, I posted a thing and it's substacked about gold's quiet bowl market
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and can continue And maybe the answer is now because now who that will tie
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him to the whole slowdown thing. But normally when when there's an equities bear
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market, and stocks are down today, so it could be connected. But
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when there's an equities bear market, it pulls everything down with it, and
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it takes gold and silver down in kind of a V shaped decline where they
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they crash and then they spike when the FED comes in and tries to bail
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out the stock market, and so that could happen again. That's the big
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risk with precious metals, but there's at least one reason why it might not,
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because if a downturn coincides with another bank crisis. Part of the reason
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why gold is up lately is that a lot of people pulled their money out
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of their bank because they decided their bank account was no longer safe and they
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had to put that money somewhere, and they probably kept some cash, and
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they also probably bought some precious metals. So you saw a capital moving out
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of the banking system and into safe haven assets like gold and silver. So
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if there's a if there's a recession and an equity's bear market, and there's
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a bank crisis along with everything else, then it could be the more people
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will pull their money out of their banks and look for somewhere else to put
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it and put it in gold, and gold and silver will hold up better
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during the equities bear market than it has the last couple of times around,
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So that's just that's one possibility to consider. And let's also consider the fact
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one guest I had on said they want to basically shut down all the banks
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and implement a CBDC, right, so the central bank digital currency. I
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don't know that that is exactly correct. I think the banks in theories still
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have a function to play. But in the good old days, the bank
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was an intermediary, right, and they helped allocate capital to worthy investment projects,
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like you're building a new factory, you're a high growth company. But
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now they just seem to be croupies at the casino and taking their vig in.
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You know. That seems to be the purpose of the banking industry now.
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Well, the big banks are hatch funds, basically just gigantic quasi governmental
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hedge funds. So there's like six of those, and then there's all the
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other banks, And yeah, I think the theory is that we'll still have
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those big banks but own the FED and the chunk of the government because there's
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no reason for them to go away, because there's no one who can make
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them go away because they own all the politicians. But the rest of the
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banks are expendable, and if they engineer a banking crisis. They could say,
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listen, you know, we're bailing out all these small banks, and
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it's just on a viable concept. We're just going to close them all down.
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We're going to give you FED bucks and you know, we'll put five
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thousand free dollars in your FED account to just go over there and all right,
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and then and so they'll they'll use that crisis as a way of transitioning
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to a government run financial system and getting rid of all the little banks.
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I think that would be a catastrophe, of course, but it looks like
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the kind of thing that these guys are capable of planning and executing now,
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So I don't I don't think we can write off anything that happens in the
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next few years and say it's not a false flag. You know, it
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might it might just be purely by accident, whatever happens. But there's a
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high there's a high likelihood that the next crisis is an engineered crisis, and
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it could definitely be what you said, you know, where we get rid
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of the banks and we go to a central bank digital currency, and that
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is used as a means of control going forward. So we need to fight
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this if if they start doing that, we need to you know, pull
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some cash out of our banks, keep cash and then buy a bunch of
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gold and silver and then transact face to face, you know, use physical
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stuff to buy and sell UM and in that way, UM try to hamstream
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the whole transition to central bank digital currencies. It's going to be a hard
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protest because they have unlimited amounts of my thing create out of pin air to
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tempt us into the the FED account. Yeah, but what I want to
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part, Okay, I want to know if they set up a FED account
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and they give me five thousand extra, will they give me a toaster oven?
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Because I missed the days when banks competed on things like giving toaster ovens,
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clock radios. I know I'm dating myself there because nobody uses a clock
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radio anywhere you have a phone. But all sorts of that. You know,
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maybe we should come up with a gift list. Well in your CBDC
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FED account you're FED phony money account, and you can get like a list
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of gifts and to get you to get to put your money there. They
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can totally do that, don't We won't be toaster ovens and things. It's
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going to be you know, thought control of wheelchair AI driven sex spots and
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things like that. You know, they know their target market. They'll they'll
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find a way to convince us to come up. If they give me an
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AI girlfriend, an AI bought girlfriend, I'll sign up, all right,
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you know, plus five thousand. I got to get the five thousand because
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you know, I got to take her out to dinner, virtual dinners and
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dates. It's expensive these days because of the inflation. Well, you know
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that they're doing their market research right now, and they're they're focus grouping and
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what kind of stuff they can give us and seeing what works, and yeah,
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I think it's going to be stuff like that. Yeah, so you
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know that'll be the amusing part of the process. But we got to keep
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in mind that our wheelchairs and our sex spots are going to be spying on
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us, just like our fed account is. That's like our refrigerator. My
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yeah, or is in with them. I'm convinced. I'm just worried it's
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it's going to testify against me. Do you have one of those camera door
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things that know but it's it's web enabled then, and God only knows what
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it's been doing while I'm not watching. Years ago on dollarclass dot com,
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I wrote, I did a post called don't let you thermostats see where you
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hide your gold or something like that, and that's that's basically um, yeah,
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that's reality now. You know, we we have to be careful about
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what our appliances they're seeing, and I think most people are not because we're
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not used to being afraid of what our refrigerator is going to do with our
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data. So you know, like maybe you need a privilege for your appliances
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so they can't testify against you in accord to law. Other news de dollarization,
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you know, Brazil, France, nobody has any respect for the United
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States anymore. And if you look what's going on in Washington, who can
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blame them? It's nuts. I think the biggest part of the whole de
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dollarization story right now and is how unafraid everybody is of the US. Literally,
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the president of France and the president of Brazil just in the last week
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said yeah, you know, we need to get away from this whole dependence
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on dollars thing and let's trade in our own currencies. And these guys never
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would have said that ten years ago, because they would have been afraid of
15:54
years ago. Yeah, I look out two years ago. Yeah yeah,
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because I would have been down there with a you know, poison umbrella or
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a you know, fake news channel that's um that's stirring up a rebellion or
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whatever. And now it's like there's there's such such strength and numbers in the
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dedolarization process. There are so many countries that are saying stuff like this and
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wanting to join the Bricks Coalition and everything, and talking about a gold backed
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you on and and and so I think it's it's it's not even whackamle anymore
16:30
for the US. It's just we're overwhelmed. But we can't destabilize every single
16:36
country in the world besides New Zealand and Australia and Canada. And that's kind
16:41
of what we're faced with now. We either declare war on literally half the
16:45
world, or we just stand back and let it happen, Let let us
16:48
be abandoned, you know, And I think that is accelerating. The thing
16:53
is then they dedollarize. Who's going to be left to buy their stuff?
16:59
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throw now more than ever. Well, see, we're going to stop buying
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a lot of stuff in any event, because we're maxed out. We are
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the most indebted society in human history and um credit card debt is at record
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levels. So if if American consumers are putting, you know, food and
18:21
gas and stuff like that on their credit cards and then carrying a balance that
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charges from twenty three percent a month or a year. Yeah, I mean
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they're, um, they're they're not going to lead a global consumer spending recovery
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in any of them. Were were We're kind of taking ourselves out of that
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game by encouraging this kind of leverage profitly. Um. Yeah. So it's
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not clear how much the rest of the world loses by not using dollars anymore,
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because we are not what we once were. We're not the consuming engine
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of the global economy. So true, he's on the political front. So
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they went and they indicted into Trump. I mean, in New York,
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you could be a murderer and you know they turned the other way. They
19:11
let you just go. But if you happen to have paid hush money to
19:15
an ex girlfriend, even if the crime has a run past the statute of
19:21
limitations, which my limited knowledge of the law. After all, I am
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America's top recovering attorney. But if all that's happened, and then you know,
19:30
it's we become the Banata Republic. This is a show trial like what
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they had in Russia and men when they march them off to the gallows.
19:41
Or in Russia, remember Trotsky, Lenin and Trotsky, they led the whole
19:48
communist takeover, and then Lennon got the bright idea, I need to kill
19:52
off all the other people who helped me do this because they could be a
19:56
possible future competitors here, and they killed off Trotsky. I think in Mexico
20:03
City they sent out a hit team. You know, when we start criminalizing
20:10
our politicians or crimes, imaginary crimes, forget about the crimes they actually committed.
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We've we've become a banana republic. You know, there's so much about
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this that is is kind of hilarious when you think about it. But two
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things that really jump out. One is that I don't think the Democrats kind
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of thought through what the the implications of the precedent they're setting might be.
20:37
Because let's say Trump gets through this one like he's gotten through all the other
20:42
things they've thrown at him. He gets elected and then goes out and just
20:48
rounds up the extended families of the Clintons and the Bidens and just perp walks
20:53
them in broad daylight into prison and then locks them in solitary confinement. And
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you know, he's excuse would be, well, that's all we do now
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right. No one is above the law perfectly, and you know that.
21:06
And the Democrats would have brought that on themselves by people doing something like this.
21:11
People that live in glass houses really got to be thinking about throwing stones.
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And look, we're not politically oriented because this is a family show.
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Well, the Chinese have just gave a huge document dump on millions of dollars
21:30
of payoffs to the first son and first crackhead hunter Biden, and it looks
21:38
like I think the only thing that would stop an impeachment is a fact the
21:44
alternative is so bad. And if they get rid of her, then who
21:51
comes into office? Then who's the Speaker of the House? Now, Um,
21:56
what's like his name? I can't even remember? Now, Oh,
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so we've wait. If they indicted, um, the top two Democrats,
22:04
then the Republican gets divided the president McCarthy McCarthy, Yeah, line, Nancy
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say a third in line. That's another interesting angle there, isn't it.
22:15
Yeah? Okay, Well, you know we we are been in a republic,
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Like you said, anything is possible here because we've we've basically taken the
22:25
whole you know, constitutional rights, rule of law thing and just weaponized it.
22:30
So it wouldn't at all be a surprise if this is just a back
22:34
and forth thing now until until we're exhausted and we give up and somebody finally
22:38
gets elected that promises never to do it again. But yeah, and yeah,
22:42
what military or a total dictatorship takes over the end the end result of
22:52
every empire that collapses. Eventually you have a dictator that that. Yeah.
23:00
When when political parties basically go to war with each other and throw the rule
23:04
of law out and just do whatever they have to do to win, you
23:10
usually end up with some kind of like a colonel who gets a little private
23:15
army together and takes over the government and promises elections in five years after all
23:21
the corruption has been cleared out. And you know what, we're on that
23:25
path. I hope we don't keep on walking at path, but dat closer
23:30
than you might want to think. But hey, somebody else can figure out
23:33
a scenario where the US finds its former greatness and becomes a leader of the
23:40
beacon of the free world and all that, I will send you a case
23:44
of bud Light. Okay, now that the bud Light story is funny but
23:51
also really dark. And basically the story is as everybody knows. And now
23:56
they're they're trying to broaden the audience for bud Light, and they they're they're
24:02
broadening it a little further than anybody expected, and it's generating a backlash.
24:06
Um. The important thing to understand about this whole thing, though, is
24:08
that while we're distracted by these kinds of battles, the one percent are are
24:15
just happily draining astry. You know, they're they're stealing continuously from everybody else
24:22
and then trying to distract us with social issue battles um that keep us from
24:29
paying attention to the theft that's going on. And so they're loving this.
24:32
You know, it wouldn't wouldn't be a surprise if it was. You know,
24:34
the Budweinser thing was part of the plan that an hazard Bush just had
24:40
to take one for the one percent tea here in order to keep us distracted
24:45
for another three or four months, I don't, you know, and then
24:48
one knows what comes after that. I love it, and that is a
24:52
logical explanation for what we're seeing. It's called the bread and circuses right from
24:59
ancient Rome from the collapse, and it looks to me like as the days
25:04
go on, we're more and more following the example of prior civilizations. What
25:14
disturbs me like being not being opposed to anarchy wholly, but some kind of
25:22
structured anarchy. If that's not a contradiction in terms the idea of China becoming
25:29
the predominant country that runs things, it seems to me it's a lot worse
25:34
than the when the US did it. We don't have lately, we haven't
25:40
had any re education camps, concentration camps to my knowledge. There hasn't been
25:47
a lot of forced Oregon donorship in the US, something that China seems to
25:52
excel at. It seems like the alternative power structure here is going to be
26:00
a lot worse for the planet than than the US running things. But they'll
26:07
get their wish and they'll wish that they had been more far sighted than they
26:11
actually were. Yeah, you know, it's it's important to um to know
26:17
what we're talking about, things like detalterization and where the world is going and
26:19
everything that. You know, we're not saying that's going to be better.
26:25
It's just that it's an inevitable thing that there are large political and financial trends
26:32
at work now that that probably are going to go where they go, and
26:38
you know, there's a lot of blame to spread around for, you know,
26:44
creating and maintaining those trends. But they are what they are, you
26:47
know, and that's where we're going. So we'll have a lot to talk
26:48
about in the next couple of years at night. Yeah, you can't ignore
26:52
the trends. They're inexorable. And another trend and it will will kind of
26:56
leave it at that top. Swiss watch CEOs see gloomy outlook as demand woes
27:04
materialize, and it's kind of like the auto story, which we didn't really
27:08
cover, but auto inventories are building. During the pandemic, you couldn't find
27:14
a Rolex. They doubled in prices during the pandemic. You couldn't find a
27:18
decent used car. They were up fifty sixty percent, and forget about new
27:22
cars, they were all but unobtainable. And now those trends are reversing.
27:29
I've personally happened to think and we're getting back to the inflation thing that we
27:32
opened the show with John. I personally think that inflation will be roaring its
27:37
ugly head. Again. The only way it doesn't is if we go into
27:41
a major global depression where demand, the demand component completely vaporizes, and I
27:49
think they will hyperinflate to avoid that eventual result here. So my suggestion is
27:57
a by Rolexes, sell stocks all right, that carry that's reasonable because you
28:07
know inflation will come back when governments respond to the coming recession by going back
28:12
to easing, and they'll they'll buy equity if they'll do all kinds of stuff
28:15
that maybe they didn't do before because they'll be that desperate, and that's going
28:22
to light a fire under inflation and it's going to cause the maybe the terminal
28:27
decline of a lot of these FIOD currencies. So we're close to the last
28:32
stage of this process, and the next couple of years might clarify how that's
28:37
going to go out. When you say d dollarize, which you're really saying
28:41
but these countries are too stupid to realize it, or maybe they're not,
28:47
is you're defeatizing, meaning that you kill the dollar, you kill all the
28:52
currencies. There won't be a replacement fiat currency that that ninety percent of the
29:00
and it trusts because once the dollar goes there will be zero trust in any
29:04
paper currency, digital currency, whatever, and that's where the crisis is really
29:11
going to come in. And they're just hastening the decline as is. I
29:15
mean, the US is committing self immolation. It's happening. And like I
29:19
said, the trend is the trend, and you should profit by it,
29:23
or at least protect yourself so that you can live to fight another trend.
29:30
Yeah, I know, we gotta go one last. The best case scenario
29:34
in all of this is that the bricks countries, for instance, do set
29:38
up at gold backed currency, and that that forces the rest of the world
29:44
to follow in those footsteps and we go back to a global gold standard.
29:49
And if we did that, that would be horrible for everybody who trusted the
29:52
governments and kept a lot of local cash, but it would put us back
29:56
on a sustainable path. And if we can get there without global nuclear war
30:03
and without you know, a ten year nineteen thirties style depression, that I
30:08
think that would be a good outcome. You know, that would be the
30:11
best we can hope for. Absolutely, And I've been hey, I'm totally
30:15
supporting of a metallic standard some way that is transparent, verifiable, where there's
30:22
true trust in it that the bank that says, I know, we're giving
30:26
you out these markers here because it's it's too in you know, it's just
30:30
not practical to carry around a bar of gold, and then they've loaned out
30:36
the gold er sold it. You know that we know about that, sure,
30:40
But the fact is, no government on the face of the planet wants
30:45
a gold back currency. They might make noises, they might say they do,
30:49
but the biggest power that any government has over the populace is the ability
30:56
to create legal tender at the if, like a click of the mouse.
31:02
They don't really want it, but they will be forced eventually to do it
31:06
because trust will go to zero. I think we'll leave it at that.
31:10
Make sure you go to John's substack. It's Robino dot substack dot com.
31:14
Link in the show notes and hey, you've got a question for John or
31:18
myself, shoot us an email kl at kryltz dot com. Go to the
31:22
site Financial Survival Network dot com. Sign up for free newsletter. Got one
31:26
going out shortly. John, we'll talk to you in a couple of weeks.
31:30
Thanks Kara, see you. Thanks for listening to Carrie Lets's Financial Survival
31:33
Network. Your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
31:38
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