Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Trump Tariff Collection Day🔥Crypto Market Update

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Trump Tariff Collection Day🔥Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Collection day is here.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: We'll be breaking down the tariffs and also what's happening
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: in the market right now. With a lot of earnings,
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a good one. Book back into
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: the show. Let's get started. I do want to thank
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• 0:42
  Speaker 2: a couple of points I want to hit on today.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: President Trump says, reciprocal tariffs now in effect. This has
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: happened last night at midnight, so we started taking the
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: clock on collecting tariffs last night.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: The likelihood is.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: This could be significant now starting to come into the US.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Coffers a couple of point points within this double tariffs
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: on India to fifty percent imposed additional fifteen to Japan
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: and now so one hundred percent tariff on semiconductors is
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: a big deal, semiconductors mostly being offshore right now. Pharmaceutical
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: tariffs two hundred and fifty percent is coming soon. All
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: of these had previous trade deals and either they were
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: teased or they were just flat, you know, discarded, and
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: we're working on new deals right now. So it is
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: a question mark right now. As so whether or not
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: these tariffs are going to truly hit the market.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Are they going to affect you and me?
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: And I'll explain that a little bit around where earnings
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: are in a second, where I think the economy is going.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: But I want to go to a clip real quick
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: that kind of explains it. Take a look.
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: I think it's too early to tell. Keep in mind,
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: it's very hard to use tariffs both as a negotiating
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: tool and as a way to increase revenue, and the
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: avestage seems to want to do both because it's a
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: negotiating tool and the US get's what it wants and
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: it's got to give up the tariffs. If it needs
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: the revenue, it can't do that. So I think this
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: explains at least some part why the President has insisted
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: on a baseline tariff for every country, even those with
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: which we actually have a trade surplus, like the UK
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: and Australia. But that way he can say that he's
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: bringing in some revenue, even though it's not as much
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: as he might have hoped. But at the same time
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: he's backing off the more extreme tariffs to try to
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: avoid retaliation and try to keep the US economy from
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: slowing down further.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: Well, one thing that is happening, and I would agree,
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: I think the economy is slowing, even though on earnings
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: we are not seeing it yet there we are seeing
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: it in the jobs reports, and I think this could
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: be something that is queuing up. And I'll talk about
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: that in a minute, but I want to go to
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: the strategy side of this, because this is of course
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: involving one of the biggest companies in America, Apple, Remember
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: that Apple on the first tariff which China Apple said,
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: wait a minute, we're gonna waffle away. We're gonna go
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: over and and start building, you know, manufacturing in the
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: United States. This was a whole issue that of course,
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: uh Trump readjusted from a twenty five percent tariff and
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: backed off of that, and all it took was really
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: this right here, and that was Tim Cook giving out
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: the president a six thousand dollars back pro But here's
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: the interesting thing.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Take a look at that picture. What do you see there?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: You see an empty factory.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: Now Tim could say, yeah, we're gonna build stuff here,
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: but the reality he's probably never gonna do this.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: So I think he is just stringing the.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: President along to try to keep apple and good graces
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: in some way to be able to find this off. Now,
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: eventually either Trump figures out what they're doing, because now
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: the big announcement is what they were doing over in
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: the White House yesterday, which is where they're bringing in,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: like I think of a six hundred billion to invest
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: in Kentucky. And whether or not that's going to happen
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: is the question mark right now. Because Tim this time,
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: all he had to do was give him like a
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: little clo last disc and it was a one of
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: one designed by I think a veteran or something. But
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  Speaker 2: point being, I think Cook is continuing to string the
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: president along here in terms of trying to get these
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: lower tariffs.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's going to last very long.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: We'll see how it plays out.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: One thing you can count on, and that, of course,
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: is Trump to continue to surprise you. And one of
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: the things he's going to surprise you with is a
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: four oh one K access to crypto. This is bigger
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: than I think a lot of people can imagine. The
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: amount of four one K money that is out there
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: in the United States is staggering. The opportunity to be
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: able to put digital assets in four oh one k's
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  Speaker 2: is going to shift the market in a big way.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: Here's a clip from Mike Novograts talking about that.
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  Speaker 1: Take a look.
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  Speaker 4: The devils are the details, but you're going to see funds.
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: I mean, the simplest thing is a bitcoin fund an ETF.
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: But again, it's when it becomes commonplace, when you can
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: do it at your old yeah, the place you've already
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: been doing business with. You know, if it's Fidelity or
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: U t row Price or whoever it is, you just
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: pull more people into this ecosystem. So I'm in the
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: lane that bitcoin is digital gold, and it's a you know,
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: it's a hedge against incessant money printing, right, it's the
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: heads against incessant bad fiscal policy in not just the US,
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: but in the whole world. And so I don't think
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: bitcoin will be used as a currency. I think stable
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: coins will be. And I think you're going to continue
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: to see bitcoin appreciate as long as we have governments
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: that can't spend less than they then they take in
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: in revenue.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: Well, Mike, I think that's going to be a known
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: fact for quite some time. I agree with the novocrats
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: there in terms of the pressure that is going to
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: put on not only US economies, but to his point,
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: global economies, and it will continue to push people in
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: digital assets. And I think for many of you, if
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: you're watching this maybe for the very first time, you're
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: maybe starting to think about getting into crypto or digital assets.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: It's in general.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: First of all, if you're not subscribed to the show,
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: take a minute hit the subscribe button right now, because
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: this will help you start to understand the impact on
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: not only your future, but also I think the economy
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: in general. Now, he goes on in another clip around
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: the four oh one K side of things and what
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: this will look like in the near future.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: If this actually starts to take place.
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: Take a look, help us understand what is going on exactly.
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: You know, bull market joy while it lasts, never does
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: you know we're in a bullmarket. Trump last night came
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: out and talked about crypto assets being eligible for four
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  Speaker 4: one k's. I mean, that's a monster fool of capital.
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: I think one of the things that I actually didn't
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  Speaker 4: even comprehend is these treasury companies have done so well.
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: The public equity markets are so much bigger than what
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: the crypto markets were, and so as we're really broadening
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: our reach through public equities into our asset class, you're
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: just seeing tons of money pour in.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: All right, so welcome to the bull run.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: Mike is definitely all in on this, and of course
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  Speaker 2: some of the things he hit on there where four
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: one k's will play into this how we've seen this
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: shift to stable coins. But the big one is how
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: treasuries are going to play into this.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: And when you think.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: About treasuries, you look at whether it's bitcoin treasuries, ETH treasuries,
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: or other digital assets. This will be a bigger window.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Because I'm still on the fence as to whether this
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: is a bubble or a complete new shift in how
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: the market may be attacking digital assets. So there's a
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: lot to take a look at. If you look at
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: treasure companies in general. Nake ROSSI right here, kind of
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: a wild stat e Treasury Companies and spot ethtfs have
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: now each bought up about one point six percent of
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: current total EATH supply. This is beginning as of June,
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: so that's a pretty significant amount. I mean, if you
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: think about eth in general, because it's a huge digital asset.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: At the point being, this is just getting started. There's
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: only a handful of treasury companies and there's only a
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: handful of companies that have done this. So imagine when
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  Speaker 2: we get a larger percentage of companies that say own
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: eight like maybe you own Nvidia or maybe you own Tesla.
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: That is happening and will happen I think on a
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: lot of balance sheets in the coming months and years.
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: This is a big deal. Now, another big deal that
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: happened is this right here. Rail is now joining Ripple
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: bag Garling hose House.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Tweeted on this.
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  Speaker 2: The reason that this is a big deal is because
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: Rail has even though they're a Canadian based firm, and
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: there's a little bit of activity I think it was
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: a two hundred million dollar deal. Many people would say,
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: well that's just not that big, But in reality, Rail
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: has a lot of cross border payment settlement. This only
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: increases the coffers for Ripple. One note in this tweet
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: right here is this one right there, and it's that
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  Speaker 2: we power ten percent of all B to B stable
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: coin volume. And now that we've got Ripple, we're going
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: to scale faster. So ten percent significant by one company,
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: and now all of that setting in Ripple. And of
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: course right here is Brad garling House August doldrums that
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: are just kind of confirming the Ripple financial acquisition. So
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: this is again one another go to provider of a
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: go to provider of the stable coin payment infrastructure. All
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: of this all leaning into where Ripple is heading. Other
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: things that are happening out there is we've got Kaitlyn
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: Long a little bit upset with this, and she is
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: slamming xrp's idea of a centralized network and backwards tokenomics.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: Remember that Kaitlin Long, come, just remember about what this
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: is about. She tried to get a banking charter that
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: was not happening. Now we've got all these banking charters
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: kind of lining up out there, including Ripple most likely
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: going to get one.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: And I think this is just a little bit.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: Of maybe bad blood under the bridge here, But going forward,
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: I think this is a factor you have to look
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: at in general, is the idea of centralization. It's one
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: thing that everybody is going to look at as we
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: see a lot of these charters starting to go out there.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: But you also have to look at bitcoin if there
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: in many of.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: Which we are all going to see more consolidation of
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: where these assets are being held because guys, for the
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: first time Wall Street is here, and not only Wall Street.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Now we have the US government behind all of this
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: action in terms of an overall industry, and that is a.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Big factor going forward.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: Here's Eric balschunis talking about in this and this is
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: in reference to polymarket a trend, and that is that
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: the odds of the XRP ETF approval went down to
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: sixty two percent after some of the votes were disclosed
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: showing Crenshaw voting no. But what he points at right
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: here is that Crenshaw one of the SEC commissioners. What
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: he points at is that Crenshaw's just going to vote
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: no on everything, So don't worry about that one as much.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: I think the key is we're going to continue to
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: see the SEC supporting this, and it's just a matter
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: of time. We're going to see an XRP ETF for sure,
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: and I think it's happening this year. Other things that
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: are happening right now, you've got pre stocks coming out,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: which is officially launching on Solana. This is going to
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: allow users to trade tokenized pre ipo stocks like open Ai, Stripe, SpaceX,
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: et cetera. All of that's going to be available over
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: on Salona. So we're going to see a lot more
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: remember seeker shipping. Now. Hopefully we'll have a phone here
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: in the studio soon to show you. But the point
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: is you're gonna have one hundred and fifty thousand phones
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: at least going out there and maybe attacking scenarios like
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: this in terms of growth around.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Token is stocks, especially on pre ipo. That's a good one.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: Now talk about IPOs. Let me go to the earnings numbers,
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: because this is this is insane to me.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Earnings.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: This is the best earning seasons we've seen in years.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: Sixty three percent of the S and P five hundred
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: companies now have beat earnings expectations and at least one
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: standard deviation. This is the highest percentage four years, all right.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: So many people will say, well, wait a minute, pull
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: the economy is supposed to be slowing down. In reality,
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: is there a lag here that is occurring right now?
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: I think that's the question. Because ten percent of firms
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: have missed estimates by at least one standard deviation. That's
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: the low share in a year and below the long
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: term average of like thirteen percent. I think the real
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: question is how does this affect long term into the economy.
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: I say this all the time. Watch the jobs first.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: It is the bell.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Weather to how companies will perform.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: If jobs start to fall, it automatically starts to push in,
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: especially in the retail sector. And many of these companies
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: are the ones that are reporting right now, So be
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: on the look guys right now.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: It could be end of this year.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: But even though that's a more active area of revenue
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: for a lot of companies, especially in the retail sector
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: because of holiday season, and I think people will still
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: continue to put money into that. They'll just refinance credit
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: cards and refinance cars all that kind of knowing that
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: we're going to probably see lower rates coming down the road,
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: so people are thinking REFI.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Definitely, there's probably mortgages out there.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: Being done in that same hope of where we may
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: see lower fed rates coming up. Tech stocs, though, are
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: outperforming everyone the S and P five hundred by its
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: largest margin since the peak of the dot com bubble. Guys,
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: that is an insane chart to see the dot com
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: bubble compared to where we are now, because that was
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: a massive fall in the market of nineteen ninety nine
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: and two thousand, one of the worst eras in technology.
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: So hopefully none of that happens, but it's something I'm
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: keeping a very close eye on, and you can too
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: by just joining our diamond circle. All you have to
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: do is click the link down below. It's free, and
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: of course follow me out there on X at Paul Baron.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: We'll catch you next time right here on The Paul
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: Baron Show.