Latest / Balance of Power / US Prices Rise Most Since April

Transcript

US Prices Rise Most Since April · Balance of Power

0:02
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
0:04
Speaker 2: Podcasts.
0:05
Speaker 3: Radio.
0:06
Speaker 4: News.
0:09
Speaker 5: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
0:12
Speaker 5: us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on
0:15
Speaker 5: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
0:19
Speaker 5: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch
0:22
Speaker 5: us live on YouTube.
0:25
Speaker 6: It reminds me of what we heard from, what, was
0:26
Speaker 6: it Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas who said the
0:29
Speaker 6: way you get data centers and communities is you literally
0:31
Speaker 6: pay for people's utility costs. Well, of course, we know
0:35
Speaker 6: there's a lot of money going around, and that may
0:37
Speaker 6: very well be a strategy given the political difficulties that
0:40
Speaker 6: have come with. trying to bring data centers to communities.
0:42
Speaker 6: That certainly has been front and center in this midterm cycle,
0:45
Speaker 6: but so too has the wider issue of costs, not
0:47
Speaker 6: just utility costs or gasoline costs, but costs at grocery
0:50
Speaker 6: store as well. Affordability has been and continues to be
0:54
Speaker 6: the challenge that voters say is top of mind as
0:56
Speaker 6: they're getting ready to make their decisions for an election
0:58
Speaker 6: just 20 days from now. And with the inflation data
1:01
Speaker 6: that Charlie and Joe and I were running through this morning,
1:04
Speaker 6: that shows consumer prices going up three-tenths of a percent
1:07
Speaker 6: month on month, 3.7% overall on the headline figure year
1:11
Speaker 6: on year, it points to costs rising, not falling. And
1:14
Speaker 6: yet President Trump, when traveling to Alaska to benefit the
1:17
Speaker 6: Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan yesterday, said costs are coming down.
1:21
Speaker 7: Listen.
1:23
Speaker 8: Everything that you hear about that you're cheering about tonight,
1:26
Speaker 8: the jobs are going to be unbelievable.
1:28
Speaker 9: Your costs are coming way down anyway. We're very close
1:31
Speaker 9: to winning.
1:31
Speaker 8: I mean, I think we've won the war because Iran
1:35
Speaker 8: will not have a nuclear weapon. Let me put it
1:37
Speaker 8: that way. but that'll end very soon. That war is
1:42
Speaker 8: going to end very soon, and when it does here,
1:45
Speaker 8: prices are going to come tumbling down.
1:46
Speaker 9: They already are.
1:48
Speaker 10: The president last evening in Alaska. As we turn to
1:52
Speaker 10: Jeff Mason, Bloomberg White House correspondent, joins us from the
1:55
Speaker 10: North Lawn right now. Jeff, it's good to see you. That,
1:59
Speaker 10: of course, did not turn out to be the case
2:01
Speaker 10: in the Consumer Price Index. Does the president modulate his
2:06
Speaker 10: message before rallies today?
2:08
Speaker 2: I think that's doubtful, Joe. I think it's a fair
2:11
Speaker 2: question because the evidence and the data, as you say,
2:14
Speaker 2: show that what he is saying from the podium at
2:16
Speaker 2: these rallies is not backed up by the evidence in
2:19
Speaker 2: terms of what's in the economy. And Kevin Hassett, his
2:23
Speaker 2: top economic advisor, acknowledged in an interview with another network
2:27
Speaker 2: this morning that it was a blip. I got an
2:30
Speaker 2: email back from a White House official as well who
2:32
Speaker 2: said that the president has acknowledged that there will be
2:35
Speaker 2: temporary setbacks as a result of the Iran war. but
2:38
Speaker 2: went on to say that the president has employed or implemented, rather,
2:42
Speaker 2: a pro-growth agenda. So I think that's the messaging that
2:47
Speaker 2: they would like to focus on.
2:48
Speaker 9: But the truth is.
2:49
Speaker 2: People are hurting in their pocketbooks, and that's been really
2:52
Speaker 2: the biggest defining issue of these midterm elections that are
2:56
Speaker 2: coming up in just a few weeks.
2:59
Speaker 11: Indeed.
3:00
Speaker 6: And what do you make, Jeff? What should we make
3:03
Speaker 6: of the decision to take that message to Arizona and
3:06
Speaker 6: Montana today?
3:07
Speaker 11: Why?
3:09
Speaker 8: Yeah.
3:09
Speaker 2: Well, Montana is a red state, which we've talked about before,
3:12
Speaker 2: and that seems to be the trend on his travel schedule.
3:15
Speaker 2: Alaska is certainly a red state as well. So the
3:17
Speaker 2: fact that he decided he needed to go there yesterday
3:21
Speaker 2: and now go to Montana as well is another reflection
3:24
Speaker 2: of how concerned the White House is and Republicans are
3:28
Speaker 2: about losing what have been previously safe seats and in
3:32
Speaker 2: safe states. So, quote unquote, that President Trump won pretty
3:37
Speaker 2: handily during his last election. So I think that's what
3:42
Speaker 2: we're seeing here. He is going to these states to
3:44
Speaker 2: try to shore up candidates, to try to help the
3:48
Speaker 2: Republicans hold on to their majorities in the House and
3:51
Speaker 2: the Senate. I spoke to another White House official yesterday
3:54
Speaker 2: who said that they do see a pathway there for
3:56
Speaker 2: both the House and the Senate. So still some confidence,
4:01
Speaker 2: but that's belied a little bit by the fact that
4:02
Speaker 2: they're having to create a travel schedule that goes to
4:05
Speaker 2: states that really if you look at, if you think
4:08
Speaker 2: about the broader political map, should not be in play.
4:12
Speaker 10: Jeff, we were watching the president last evening in Alaska,
4:15
Speaker 10: and I was struck by his closing line. In conclusion, quote,
4:20
Speaker 10: if you elect a Republican House and a Republican Senate
4:22
Speaker 10: on November 3rd, you get $ 5, 000. Is that the closing argument?
4:29
Speaker 2: Well, it was the key argument that he made in
4:33
Speaker 2: the Dallas convention, midterm convention, that they held several weeks
4:37
Speaker 2: ago now. And the president is clearly bringing that line
4:40
Speaker 2: back in the hopes that maybe the promise of a
4:44
Speaker 2: check will encourage people from his base and otherwise people
4:48
Speaker 2: who might support Republicans.
4:50
Speaker 9: To come out.
4:50
Speaker 2: Sure, it might be the closing argument. The question is,
4:53
Speaker 2: does it work? A, because will people believe it? And B,
4:57
Speaker 2: will Republicans even fund it if, in fact, they were
5:00
Speaker 2: to get those majorities? That proposal was not exactly popular,
5:06
Speaker 2: even with some in his base, let alone, or excuse me,
5:08
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess in his base, lawmakers in his base,
5:11
Speaker 2: let alone Democrats. whose support he would need, at least
5:16
Speaker 2: in part, if he tries to push through with this
5:18
Speaker 2: proposal and he doesn't keep those majorities in the House.
5:23
Speaker 6: All right, Jeff Mason covering the White House for us
5:25
Speaker 6: from the North Lawn today.
5:26
Speaker 11: Jeff, thank you so much.
5:28
Speaker 6: And as we think about the president's travel in part
5:31
Speaker 6: to Arizona today, we turn to an expert on Arizona politics.
5:34
Speaker 6: Samara Klar is back with us on Balance of Power.
5:36
Speaker 6: She's professor at the University of Arizona School of Government
5:39
Speaker 6: and Public Policy. She's also co-author of the book Independent
5:43
Speaker 6: Politics and is with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.
5:46
Speaker 11: Samara, it's great to have you back on the program.
5:47
Speaker 6: Of course, we talk to you a lot in 2024
5:50
Speaker 6: as Arizona was one of the critical states that we
5:53
Speaker 6: are watching. How critical is Arizona in this 2026 cycle,
5:56
Speaker 6: especially as we, I, a contested governor's race?
6:00
Speaker 12: Well, the president's not on the ballot, but it's still
6:02
Speaker 12: an incredibly critical state, this election cycle, because we have
6:06
Speaker 12: some really competitive congressional races that will help determine the
6:09
Speaker 12: balance of power in Washington. And we have a gubernatorial
6:12
Speaker 12: race that will also help determine how much power Republicans
6:15
Speaker 12: have across the country.
6:19
Speaker 10: Samara, it's great to see you and great to have
6:21
Speaker 10: you back with us here The message of affordability is
6:25
Speaker 10: pretty challenged at the moment by the president and some
6:28
Speaker 10: Republican candidates. Everyone's taking kind of a different angle on
6:31
Speaker 10: the messaging around this, but the president has been deliberate.
6:34
Speaker 10: He told Alaskan supporters last evening that prices were already
6:38
Speaker 10: coming down in light of the data today showing the opposite.
6:42
Speaker 1: How would that message land in Arizona today?
6:45
Speaker 11: That's the message that.
6:46
Speaker 12: Won in the election in 2024. And I think part
6:50
Speaker 12: of the problem Republicans are having so much trouble at
6:52
Speaker 12: this point is that Arizonans and Americans haven't felt any improvements.
6:56
Speaker 11: Gas is high.
6:57
Speaker 12: Groceries are high. Cost of living is high. Inflation is high.
7:00
Speaker 12: And that is the biggest issue that's really dogging the
7:03
Speaker 12: Republicans right now in Arizona and across the country.
7:08
Speaker 6: Well, so as we talk about Republicans and Democrats, Samara,
7:12
Speaker 6: obviously a lot of these camps are already well established
7:16
Speaker 6: and they may have decided long ago whether or not
7:18
Speaker 6: they were going to support their parties in this midterms
7:20
Speaker 6: or show up to the polls to vote for them.
7:24
Speaker 11: What about independents?
7:25
Speaker 6: This is obviously an area that you've studied very closely.
7:28
Speaker 6: How are they breaking in this cycle in Arizona and frankly,
7:32
Speaker 6: across the country?
7:34
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, over the last decade or more, we've
7:36
Speaker 12: seen a growing percentage of Americans who don't want to
7:40
Speaker 12: identify with either party. They call themselves independents. They may
7:43
Speaker 12: vote for the same party every election cycle, but they
7:45
Speaker 12: don't want to publicly associate themselves with that party. And
7:48
Speaker 12: we're seeing more and more of that. More and more
7:50
Speaker 12: Americans say they don't like either party. Arizona is a
7:53
Speaker 12: particularly salient case of that because a third of our
7:56
Speaker 12: voters in Arizona are registered as other voters. Now, what's
7:59
Speaker 12: interesting about Arizona is we've got substantially more Republican voters
8:03
Speaker 12: than Democratic voters.
8:04
Speaker 11: But if you look at.
8:05
Speaker 12: Who's in control of Arizona right now, we've got a
8:07
Speaker 12: Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, a Democratic secretary of state
8:11
Speaker 12: and a Democratic attorney general. And at this point, the
8:13
Speaker 12: Democrats in most of these statewide races.
8:16
Speaker 11: Are ahead in their campaigns.
8:18
Speaker 12: This suggests that independents are playing a really important role
8:20
Speaker 12: in Arizona, given that there's more Republicans than Democrats. So
8:23
Speaker 12: the independents are really switching things toward the Democratic side.
8:28
Speaker 10: How are Arizonans judging this administration and the Republican Party
8:33
Speaker 10: on issues surrounding immigration, Samara?
8:37
Speaker 1: There are two ways to look at it.
8:38
Speaker 10: One is border security, and the narrative is that Republicans
8:41
Speaker 10: get very high remarks, or high marks, I should say, there,
8:45
Speaker 10: but are much more challenged when it comes to immigration enforcement,
8:49
Speaker 10: considering some of the violence that we've seen with ICE
8:52
Speaker 10: raids around the country. Arizona's pretty close to ground zero
8:56
Speaker 10: on this issue. What's the local feeling?
8:59
Speaker 9: Yeah, you bet.
9:00
Speaker 12: I mean, 2024, again, immigration was a big reason we
9:02
Speaker 12: saw so many groups, you know, almost every subgroup of
9:06
Speaker 12: the electorate moved toward the Republican Party in 2024. In Arizona,
9:09
Speaker 12: border security was a huge issue, not just for Republicans,
9:13
Speaker 12: but for Democrats. Voters across the aisle were fed up
9:17
Speaker 12: with the border crisis. And that was a big reason
9:19
Speaker 12: that they ushered in a lot of Republican victory two
9:21
Speaker 12: years ago. Now, I think any other cycle, any other
9:26
Speaker 12: political dimension, I would say the Republicans could be running
9:29
Speaker 12: real victory laps right now because they have in many
9:32
Speaker 12: ways secured the border the way that voters wanted them to. However,
9:36
Speaker 12: they now have two other issues to deal with. First,
9:39
Speaker 12: the tides have turned against them in that a lot
9:41
Speaker 12: of the public discontent has to do with, An overreach,
9:45
Speaker 12: too much excessive force. People are not happy with the
9:48
Speaker 12: sort of the extremity with which the Republican Party, particularly
9:52
Speaker 12: their support for ICE, has taken on immigration enforcement. And finally, again,
9:56
Speaker 12: I mean, I hate to sound like a broken record,
9:58
Speaker 12: but the economy is such an issue. for voters that
10:01
Speaker 12: in many ways it's overshadowing a lot of the successes
10:04
Speaker 12: Republicans might have otherwise been able to claim when it
10:07
Speaker 12: comes to border security.
10:09
Speaker 6: Well, and on that notion of having overreached on immigration enforcement,
10:13
Speaker 6: specifically Samara, is that especially true of Latino voters? We
10:17
Speaker 6: talk often about the impact that could have in Texas
10:21
Speaker 6: and in Florida, where they redrew maps, thinking Latinos might
10:23
Speaker 6: side more with Republicans as they did in 2024. It
10:26
Speaker 6: seems like that's less likely to be the case now.
10:29
Speaker 6: What about in Arizona?
10:31
Speaker 12: Yeah, I mean, Latino voters, like every other subgroup, as
10:34
Speaker 12: I say, really did move toward the republics in 2024.
10:38
Speaker 12: There was a lot of questioning as to how durable
10:42
Speaker 12: that was, whether this was a sign of a broader
10:44
Speaker 12: trend or whether this was kind of going to go
10:47
Speaker 12: back and forth a little. And as you say, it
10:49
Speaker 12: looks as though support for Trump among Latinos has come down,
10:52
Speaker 12: as it has, again, for most other subgroups of the electorate. Now, remember,
10:56
Speaker 12: Latinos are very politically diverse, and I mean— ethnically diverse,
11:00
Speaker 12: nationally diverse group of voters. Here in Arizona, Latino voters
11:05
Speaker 12: do tend to break for the Democratic Party, but usually
11:08
Speaker 12: about 60% of Latinos vote Democrat.
11:10
Speaker 11: So certainly a majority, but not overwhelming.
11:13
Speaker 9: Now, Latino voters like it.
11:15
Speaker 12: Most Arizonans have expressed discontent with how far the Trump
11:20
Speaker 12: administration has gone in their response to border security. And
11:23
Speaker 12: I do think at this point it's an issue that
11:26
Speaker 12: is going to hurt Republicans when really it could have
11:28
Speaker 12: helped had they had they not taken it so far.
11:30
Speaker 10: And it's interesting when we consider the issue of data centers,
11:35
Speaker 10: how significant. Much of an issue this has become in
11:39
Speaker 10: the campaign over the past year, and it's something that
11:41
Speaker 10: Arizona knows a lot about, Samara. I see a total
11:44
Speaker 10: of about 160 data centers and projects around your state,
11:48
Speaker 10: most of them clustered in Maricopa County. And like some
11:52
Speaker 10: of us who live in Virginia, for instance, Your experience
11:55
Speaker 10: with data centers, and you've also got some massive chip
11:58
Speaker 10: foundries I know that are being built there as well,
12:00
Speaker 10: might change the way people look at this issue. Are
12:04
Speaker 10: they as toxic in Arizona as they are in other
12:07
Speaker 10: places in the country?
12:09
Speaker 12: You know, data centers are overwhelmingly unpopular when the question asks,
12:13
Speaker 12: you know, do you support a data center in your
12:15
Speaker 12: local area? And this is fairly bipartisan. Democrats and Republicans
12:20
Speaker 12: do not want data centers near where they live. So
12:23
Speaker 12: I think the question is going to be where are
12:24
Speaker 12: we putting data centers? Now, when it comes to the
12:26
Speaker 12: political implications, it's not clear to me what they are,
12:30
Speaker 12: given that both Democrats and Republicans are actually kind.
12:33
Speaker 11: Of on the same side of this issue.
12:34
Speaker 12: We have both Democratic and Republican voters expressing discontent with
12:38
Speaker 12: the construction of local data centers. And what we're seeing
12:40
Speaker 12: in Arizona is both the Republican and Democratic candidates seem
12:44
Speaker 12: to be coming down against data construction near residential areas.
12:48
Speaker 12: So there's not as much of a partisan divide that
12:50
Speaker 12: either party is going to be able.
12:51
Speaker 11: To capitalize on.
12:53
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's one of those rare bipartisan issues that we
12:56
Speaker 6: don't find too often in politics anymore, Samara. And again,
13:00
Speaker 6: as we're talking about parties here, to come back to
13:02
Speaker 6: the independent voter, how much do you think what is
13:05
Speaker 6: happening right now with independents or certain groups of the
13:08
Speaker 6: electorate swinging back towards Democrats after having, as you talked about,
13:11
Speaker 6: swung back toward Republicans in 2024? Is that necessarily a
13:15
Speaker 6: swing towards Democrats in your mind, or is it just
13:18
Speaker 6: a swing away from from Donald Trump.
13:21
Speaker 11: I ask this with the future cycles, 2028, 2030, 32
13:22
Speaker 11: in mind.
13:26
Speaker 13: Sure.
13:26
Speaker 12: Well, you know, political scientists talk a lot about something
13:28
Speaker 12: called the thermostatic model of public opinion, without sounding too nerdy.
13:32
Speaker 12: But what that means is people do tend to kind
13:35
Speaker 12: of revert to the mean a little bit after an election.
13:37
Speaker 12: When we have a conservative administration, the American public tends
13:40
Speaker 12: to move a little liberal in the subsequent election. When
13:43
Speaker 12: we have really liberal administration, we see the American public
13:46
Speaker 12: tend to move a little back toward the conservative side.
13:49
Speaker 12: We sort of act as a check against our own
13:50
Speaker 12: government in that sense. So from that perspective, what we're
13:53
Speaker 12: seeing isn't that unusual. We know midterm elections usually aren't
13:57
Speaker 12: great for the incumbent party. It's usually an opportunity for
13:59
Speaker 12: voters to try to move back toward the center. I
14:02
Speaker 12: think maybe a little bit of an exception in that
14:05
Speaker 12: Trump has really low approval numbers. And the issues he
14:09
Speaker 12: promised to fix two years ago are still on the
14:13
Speaker 12: top of people's most important issues. And that's not a
14:16
Speaker 12: great thing for the Republican Party.
14:18
Speaker 1: Hey, Samara, it's good to see you. Thanks for the
14:20
Speaker 1: insights as always.
14:21
Speaker 10: Samara Klar, University of Arizona School of Government with us
14:24
Speaker 10: on Balance of Power. We turn to Iowa next and
14:28
Speaker 10: debate night on Balance of Power, only here on Bloomberg.
14:31
Speaker 1: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
14:33
Speaker 1: more coming up after this.
14:38
Speaker 5: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
14:41
Speaker 5: us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on
14:44
Speaker 5: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
14:48
Speaker 5: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
14:51
Speaker 5: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.
14:56
Speaker 6: We have an eye on geopolitics today and the way
15:00
Speaker 6: in which geopolitics is filtering through to the midterm elections, which,
15:03
Speaker 6: of course, are just 20 days away. As we saw
15:06
Speaker 6: developments in Ukraine overnight, Russia launching a missile and drone
15:10
Speaker 6: attack against a number of Ukrainian energy plants also resulted
15:14
Speaker 6: in a number of fatalities, all of it despite Ukraine.
15:16
Speaker 6: The energy ceasefire that President Trump said both Russia and
15:19
Speaker 6: Ukraine would be abiding by after President Trump repeatedly pressured
15:23
Speaker 6: Ukraine to hold off on further attacks against Russian refineries
15:26
Speaker 6: due to the impact it was having on the global
15:28
Speaker 6: diesel market, with prices, of course, per gallon for diesel
15:32
Speaker 6: here in the U.S. remaining above $ 6. Now, also to
15:37
Speaker 6: address the diesel situation, aside from just asking Ukraine to
15:40
Speaker 6: hold off on a tax against Russian infrastructure, he also,
15:43
Speaker 6: last week, as we've told you repeatedly here on Balance
15:45
Speaker 6: of Power, announced a deal with Russia to allow them
15:48
Speaker 6: to bring on hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel
15:52
Speaker 6: back on to the global markets. This is an idea
15:55
Speaker 6: that has spurred a great deal of backlash, not just
15:58
Speaker 6: among Democrats, but Republicans too, including notably Ukraine. a Republican
16:03
Speaker 6: who was in one of those critical states that will
16:05
Speaker 6: decide ultimately the Senate majority in this election cycle. Current
16:08
Speaker 6: congresswoman and Republican nominee for Senate in the state of Iowa,
16:12
Speaker 6: Ashley Hinson, talked about that Russian diesel deal in her
16:15
Speaker 6: debate against her opponent, Josh Turek, last night.
16:18
Speaker 11: This is what she said.
16:19
Speaker 13: We need to lower gas prices in this country. We
16:21
Speaker 13: need to lower diesel prices. But I don't think we
16:23
Speaker 13: need to be making a deal with Russia to do it.
16:25
Speaker 13: I think we should be doing it by lowering the
16:28
Speaker 13: gas tax temporarily, making sure we're actually looking at potentially
16:32
Speaker 13: a diesel rebate program for our producers, investing in America's biofuels.
16:37
Speaker 11: I am proud to have voted for.
16:38
Speaker 9: Sanctions against Russia.
16:39
Speaker 13: I'm banned from Russia because of my stance on being
16:42
Speaker 13: tough on them and supporting Ukraine. And we cannot allow
16:45
Speaker 13: Vladimir Putin to win that war.
16:48
Speaker 10: Always a good look to be banned from Russia, but
16:50
Speaker 10: her answer there on the diesel sounds a lot like
16:54
Speaker 10: Mike Lawler when he joined us on Monday, the Republican
16:56
Speaker 10: from New York. We want to do what we can
16:59
Speaker 10: for consumers, but buying gas from Vladimir Putin is simply
17:03
Speaker 10: a bridge too far. This is where we start with
17:05
Speaker 10: our political panel this night after another round of debates.
17:09
Speaker 10: Rick Davis, Bloomberg politics contributor, our Republican strategist, joins right
17:13
Speaker 10: now a partner at Stonecourt Capital along with Jeannie Shanzano.
17:17
Speaker 10: Democratic Analyst and Democracy Visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's
17:20
Speaker 10: Ash Center.
17:21
Speaker 1: Rick, if you're a Republican right now, is that the
17:24
Speaker 1: right answer?
17:26
Speaker 9: Oh, absolutely.
17:27
Speaker 7: In fact, I don't know any Republicans who wouldn't give
17:30
Speaker 7: that answer right now, especially in an election year. Look,
17:33
Speaker 7: the only person who's less popular in some of these
17:35
Speaker 7: states than Donald Trump is Vladimir Putin. So saying something
17:39
Speaker 7: nice about Vladimir Putin or even doing deals with Vladimir
17:42
Speaker 7: Putin is a disincentive, less likely to vote for is
17:46
Speaker 7: probably 90% to the question of, is it a good
17:49
Speaker 7: idea to do a deal with Vladimir Putin to bring
17:51
Speaker 7: down gas prices?
17:53
Speaker 1: Julia Letlow yesterday was open to the idea.
17:56
Speaker 10: There are some Republican lawmakers who are choosing to say
18:00
Speaker 10: all of the above.
18:01
Speaker 6: Yeah, of course, Julia Letlow is the Republican nominee in
18:04
Speaker 6: the state of Louisiana, which still has Trump above water
18:07
Speaker 6: in terms of favorability and is a bit perhaps deeper red,
18:10
Speaker 6: at least for this cycle, than Iowa is proving to be, though,
18:13
Speaker 6: that we would consider Iowa a red state.
18:15
Speaker 11: So weigh in on this, Jeannie.
18:17
Speaker 6: Ashley Henson obviously breaking from the president on this, but
18:20
Speaker 6: does she, given the position she is in relative to
18:23
Speaker 6: Josh Turek, really have any other choice?
18:27
Speaker 14: I don't see how she could have any other choice,
18:30
Speaker 14: both in terms of her campaign, her ability to try
18:34
Speaker 14: to win this seat. and also just morally and legally.
18:39
Speaker 14: The deal itself is illegal. It was a hundred to
18:42
Speaker 14: zero vote in the Senate to ban buying of Russian
18:46
Speaker 14: oil in 2022. The deal only helps Vladimir Putin. It
18:51
Speaker 14: helps fund his war machine for another winter. It helps
18:55
Speaker 14: him kill civilians in Ukraine. It helps him take out
18:58
Speaker 14: their energy and their ability to heat their homes in
19:01
Speaker 14: the winter. And, you know, it reminds me of the
19:04
Speaker 14: question that Nancy Pelosi asked in 2019. Well, she said
19:09
Speaker 14: it as less of a question and more of a statement.
19:11
Speaker 14: With Donald Trump, all roads lead to Vladimir Putin. And
19:15
Speaker 14: we are seeing it once again. And the question is why?
19:20
Speaker 14: So all Republicans should join Ashley Hinson, and they should
19:24
Speaker 14: be making this stand as the six senators, to their credit,
19:28
Speaker 14: Republicans joins the six Democrats in writing that letter. But
19:32
Speaker 14: it should be 100 to nothing, a letter from all
19:35
Speaker 14: senators telling the president that this is a bad deal,
19:39
Speaker 14: and then they're not going to stand for it.
19:42
Speaker 10: We consider the sunlight that Ashley Hinson found between herself
19:45
Speaker 10: and the president last evening. Rick, we also remember her
19:48
Speaker 10: standing in the Oval Office just a couple of weeks ago,
19:50
Speaker 10: right next to the president. She promised him a tasty
19:54
Speaker 10: pork chop when he came to visit Iowa next time.
19:56
Speaker 10: And they were at that point touting a new steel
19:58
Speaker 10: mill that the president said would be coming into Iowa.
20:00
Speaker 10: Has she done enough to remove herself from the Trump
20:04
Speaker 10: brand to win this election?
20:07
Speaker 7: Well, she's moving fast to do just that, Joe. In
20:09
Speaker 7: the first debate, she talked about being the most bipartisan
20:15
Speaker 7: representative in the House, endorsing a number of programs that
20:19
Speaker 7: she is basically being seen as a flip-flop in order
20:22
Speaker 7: to win an election, and it seems to be working.
20:24
Speaker 7: I mean, there is some stability around the race with her.
20:27
Speaker 7: It hasn't gotten worse, and maybe that's a couple of
20:30
Speaker 7: good debate performances and a convincing argument given to the
20:34
Speaker 7: voters in Iowa that She's not the person who stood
20:37
Speaker 7: in the Oval Office, but that somebody else who has
20:39
Speaker 7: an independent mind, which is what most voters are looking
20:44
Speaker 7: for right now in this election from Republicans. So the
20:47
Speaker 7: fact that she has modified her positions on so many
20:49
Speaker 7: issues that are in contrast with Trump right now seems
20:52
Speaker 7: to be working and potentially effective at the ballot box.
20:56
Speaker 6: Of course, she's trying to create some distance now in
20:59
Speaker 6: this final stretch. Other vulnerable Republicans have tried to create
21:03
Speaker 6: a bit more distance for some time now, including Senator
21:06
Speaker 6: Susan Collins, the vulnerable incumbent in Maine, who once again
21:11
Speaker 6: shared a debate stage with Troy Jackson last night. The
21:14
Speaker 6: third debate these two had on the airwaves in the
21:17
Speaker 6: span of a week, whether or not that third debate
21:20
Speaker 6: changed any more minds than the first two, I guess
21:22
Speaker 6: we'll find out. But once again, this issue of Susan Collins'
21:25
Speaker 6: previous support for President Trump's war effort, voting against war
21:29
Speaker 6: powers resolutions in the Senate came up, though she has,
21:32
Speaker 6: of course, more recently voted for those war powers resolutions.
21:35
Speaker 6: Just listen to this exchange between Collins and Jackson.
21:39
Speaker 15: I voted not once, not twice, but nine times. I
21:44
Speaker 15: voted no. I voted with the Democrats. to bring the
21:49
Speaker 15: war to an end, but there were not sufficient votes for.
21:53
Speaker 1: That to happen.
21:54
Speaker 16: Senator Collins says that, you know, she voted against it
21:58
Speaker 16: nine times, but she didn't have the votes. Well, if
22:01
Speaker 16: that sounds like, then we probably ought to have Democrats
22:04
Speaker 16: in charge of the U.S. Senate so that we have
22:05
Speaker 16: the votes to stop this war.
22:09
Speaker 11: Who wins that argument, Jeannie?
22:12
Speaker 14: Kayleigh, I keep hearing that NSYNC song, remember, bye, bye, bye.
22:16
Speaker 14: You see all of these Republicans on the ballot. They
22:20
Speaker 14: are just saying bye to Donald Trump.
22:22
Speaker 9: And moving quickly.
22:24
Speaker 14: I mean, stunning that Susan Collins would not only say
22:27
Speaker 14: that she voted against the war, but that she voted
22:30
Speaker 14: with Democrats. I mean, she underscored, I voted with Democrats.
22:34
Speaker 14: to end this war. And, you know, I think that
22:38
Speaker 14: it's probably not enough for the voters of Maine and
22:41
Speaker 14: it should not be enough for the voters of Maine
22:44
Speaker 14: because her argument all along has been, you need me
22:47
Speaker 14: there so I can sort of save you from Donald Trump's,
22:51
Speaker 14: you know, worst instincts. I have a little, you know,
22:54
Speaker 14: bug in his ear. I'm able to sort of stop
22:56
Speaker 14: him from doing things that are bad for you. And
22:59
Speaker 14: she hasn't been able to do that at all. They
23:01
Speaker 14: are living with high costs. The inflation report today, a
23:05
Speaker 14: war that has made energy terribly expensive. So I don't
23:09
Speaker 14: think that after five terms, this argument holds much weight
23:12
Speaker 14: anymore for the people of Maine. Of course, it's still
23:15
Speaker 14: a very tight race and she is a formidable candidate.
23:19
Speaker 14: But Troy Jackson, who's not the best on the debate
23:21
Speaker 14: stage or on the stump, is certainly, you know, about
23:25
Speaker 14: two or three points ahead, depending on which of these
23:28
Speaker 14: polls you look at.
23:30
Speaker 10: It's still amazing to think they're doing four of these
23:32
Speaker 10: We have to acknowledge the market that is unfolding as
23:35
Speaker 10: we have this conversation. The NASDAQ is now down almost 2%,
23:40
Speaker 10: having extended its drop to exactly that amount a couple
23:43
Speaker 10: of moments ago, down about 500 points. The S &
23:45
Speaker 10: P 500 is down 95 points, more than 1%, with
23:49
Speaker 10: our eyes on yields, at least on the short end,
23:51
Speaker 10: still higher, two years up, three ticks to 481. And
23:55
Speaker 10: oil prices are on the march higher today. with WTI
23:59
Speaker 10: now up one and a half percent to top $ 95
24:01
Speaker 10: a barrel. This deterioration that we've been seeing here follows
24:05
Speaker 10: the CPI report this morning showing stronger than expected price
24:10
Speaker 10: increases in September.
24:11
Speaker 1: Rick, it pulls me to the Gallup poll.
24:13
Speaker 10: That's out today as just a kind of a broader
24:16
Speaker 10: issue to talk about behind the debates and the individual
24:19
Speaker 10: races that we're covering today on balance of power. Americans
24:23
Speaker 10: trust the Democratic Party more than Republicans to keep the
24:26
Speaker 10: country prosperous in Gallup's annual governance poll for the first
24:30
Speaker 10: time in more than a decade. When you see numbers
24:33
Speaker 10: like this, Rick, in independents, half of independents choose Democrats
24:38
Speaker 10: to do a better job keeping the country prosperous.
24:41
Speaker 1: How does that feed into your thoughts on outcomes in November?
24:46
Speaker 7: Yeah, this has been sort of party orthodoxy for Republicans.
24:50
Speaker 7: At the end of the day, voters trust us to
24:52
Speaker 7: manage the economy. The fact that we've had this assault
24:57
Speaker 7: on the economy during the Trump administration is indicative of
25:03
Speaker 7: the polling that Gallup puts out. We see this time
25:06
Speaker 7: and time again now in the data.
25:08
Speaker 9: Around these races.
25:09
Speaker 7: The number one issues are affordability and cost of living.
25:13
Speaker 7: And Republicans are just getting trounced on that. And, you know,
25:17
Speaker 7: as indicative of the president's comments yesterday in Alaska, everything's
25:21
Speaker 7: getting better. We got a great economy. Don't worry about it.
25:24
Speaker 7: It's all, you know, coming around. You know, it's a
25:29
Speaker 7: little bit of a fantastic world that the current president's
25:33
Speaker 7: living in around the economy. And so days like today, Republicans,
25:37
Speaker 7: if they don't bail out from the president, run the
25:40
Speaker 7: risk of being tagged with this kind of systemic change
25:44
Speaker 7: in voters' opinions about who's best suited to run the economy.
25:49
Speaker 12: All right.
25:50
Speaker 6: Rick Davis and Jeanne Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributors in our
25:53
Speaker 6: political panel today, thank you both so much for joining us,
25:57
Speaker 6: especially on this CPI data as we reflect, CPI Day,
26:00
Speaker 6: as we reflect on the way in which the economy
26:02
Speaker 6: and midterm politics are interacting. And as you talk about
26:05
Speaker 6: this market, Joe, amazing to see the deterioration specifically in
26:09
Speaker 6: chip socks.
26:10
Speaker 4: Yeah.
26:10
Speaker 6: The SOX index is down about 4% on the day.
26:13
Speaker 6: This is the longest losing streak, assuming these gains hold,
26:18
Speaker 6: these losses hold.
26:19
Speaker 11: Six days, longest losing streak since May of 2025.
26:21
Speaker 6: We're talking about a trillion dollars in value evaporated.
26:25
Speaker 1: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
26:27
Speaker 1: more coming up after this.
26:33
Speaker 5: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
26:36
Speaker 5: us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on
26:40
Speaker 5: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
26:43
Speaker 5: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch
26:46
Speaker 5: us live on YouTube.
26:49
Speaker 10: Thank you for joining us on the Wednesday edition as
26:52
Speaker 10: we've been keeping tabs on Bloomberg's new economy forum in
26:55
Speaker 10: New Delhi with a series of exclusive conversations that help
26:58
Speaker 10: to feed decisions on the trade and politics for that matter.
27:03
Speaker 1: Throughout the day here on Bloomberg.
27:05
Speaker 10: Most recently, Eric Schatzker pulled together a fascinating panel on
27:09
Speaker 10: the middle power movement, when we consider the middle powers,
27:12
Speaker 10: that which exists between the US and China at the
27:15
Speaker 10: top and developing nations at the bottom. Insights from Anita Anand,
27:20
Speaker 10: Canada's foreign affairs minister, Rishi Sunak, yes, the former UK
27:23
Speaker 10: prime minister, and Kevin Rudd, the former Australian PM. As
27:27
Speaker 10: Eric Schatzker asks the question, Does talk of middle powers
27:32
Speaker 10: go away once Donald Trump leaves office?
27:37
Speaker 17: If you look at U.S. foreign policy pre-Trump 2.0, you
27:44
Speaker 17: will notice that under Biden as well, there was increased protectionism.
27:51
Speaker 17: So the answer to your question is yes. No, this
27:55
Speaker 17: is the direction of travel. It does not go away,
27:57
Speaker 17: and we should see our trade diversification, our middle power strategy,
28:04
Speaker 17: our work on strategic autonomy as a long-term plan to
28:09
Speaker 17: ensure domestic economic and security resilience. I will just say,
28:14
Speaker 17: since we're in India, we as a country, Canada, had
28:19
Speaker 17: work to do to ensure we had stable, elevated relationships
28:25
Speaker 17: with countries around the world, including India, the sixth largest
28:29
Speaker 17: economy in the world at $ 4 trillion. And to see
28:34
Speaker 17: this bilateral relationship beginning to flourish is part of the
28:40
Speaker 17: work that we're doing to ensure that we're working with
28:44
Speaker 17: countries around the world with whom we have not, at
28:48
Speaker 17: least in the recent past, been working with.
28:51
Speaker 18: All I can give you, Kevin and Rishi, is a
28:53
Speaker 18: yes or no to that answer because we have run
28:54
Speaker 18: out of time.
28:55
Speaker 1: Up to you.
28:56
Speaker 4: Yes.
28:58
Speaker 3: We will.
28:58
Speaker 1: We will no longer be talking about it.
29:00
Speaker 4: No, we will be talking about it.
29:02
Speaker 1: I think you talk about President Trump.
29:03
Speaker 4: I think it's more a symptom than a cause of
29:06
Speaker 4: the change in the geopolitical environment. And all these issues
29:10
Speaker 4: will be relevant. You know, the COVID shock, supply chains,
29:14
Speaker 4: the war in Ukraine, energy impact, all of these things
29:16
Speaker 4: add up to where we are today. And all of
29:19
Speaker 4: those things have nothing to do with President Trump. All
29:21
Speaker 4: of those things are also indicative of this new environment
29:23
Speaker 4: we're in and why we're all reacting in the way
29:26
Speaker 4: that Anita described.
29:27
Speaker 18: Yeah, and I would add a yes to the remaining
29:29
Speaker 18: three musketeers on this question. And that's because we are
29:33
Speaker 18: looking at 2,000-pound gorillas out there, China and the United.
29:37
Speaker 9: States, whose view of the future order....
29:41
Speaker 18: Is not necessarily always aligned with what animates, I think,
29:45
Speaker 18: these countries that we've been describing, which is a set
29:48
Speaker 18: of democratic principles, open politics, open societies, open economies. These
29:53
Speaker 18: are quite precious values that we've evolved over quite a
29:56
Speaker 18: long period of time. And therefore, giving that effect through,
30:00
Speaker 18: let's call it a democratic economic union, point three in
30:05
Speaker 18: the poll, actually I think has some merit for us
30:07
Speaker 18: collectively to explore, exercise, leverage.
30:10
Speaker 9: And then do.
30:12
Speaker 10: From Bloomberg's New Economy Forum in New Delhi earlier today,
30:16
Speaker 10: and thanks to our colleague Eric Schatzker for helping us
30:20
Speaker 10: find that conversation, which you can watch on the terminal
30:23
Speaker 10: or online to learn a lot more. It's an interesting
30:26
Speaker 10: moment here, Kayleigh, as we balance geopolitics, the view abroad,
30:30
Speaker 10: which is impacting, of course, energy prices in a major
30:33
Speaker 10: way today, affecting domestic policy as the president. Republicans try
30:37
Speaker 10: to stump around this message, around this. You can't argue
30:41
Speaker 10: with the numbers that we're seeing, though, in the energy
30:43
Speaker 10: space bleeding through to everything else in the CPI today.
30:48
Speaker 6: Yep, which came in hotter than expected, at least for
30:50
Speaker 6: the core metric, which is fueling bets on another Fed
30:53
Speaker 6: rate hike this year, adding to the cost to borrow
30:57
Speaker 6: in the United States, adding to the affordability challenges that,
30:59
Speaker 6: of course, President Trump has repeatedly suggested are not as
31:03
Speaker 6: severe yet.
31:04
Speaker 11: As may be.
31:05
Speaker 6: Described by the electorate, and again, in Alaska last night,
31:09
Speaker 6: suggested that costs are actually coming down, even as the
31:11
Speaker 6: data this morning bears out the fact that costs are rising.
31:14
Speaker 6: So as we consider the data, the political climate, and
31:17
Speaker 6: a number of other issues, we turn now to Democratic
31:19
Speaker 6: Congressman Don Beyer, who represents Virginia's 8th District. He's also
31:23
Speaker 6: a member of the House Ways and Means Committee and
31:26
Speaker 6: is the senior secretary. House Democrat on the Joint Economic Committee. Congressman,
31:30
Speaker 6: it's good to have you back on Bloomberg TV and radio.
31:33
Speaker 6: Just on this inflation data and higher inflation that is
31:36
Speaker 6: clearly still stubborn, even in the face of the Fed's
31:40
Speaker 6: most recent rate hike.
31:42
Speaker 11: What is.
31:42
Speaker 6: the appropriate policy response other than that can be made
31:47
Speaker 6: by monetary policymakers? If Democrats are able to win back
31:51
Speaker 6: your chamber, if they even can win the Senate, how
31:54
Speaker 6: do you actually deliver on lower costs so long as
31:56
Speaker 6: President Trump remains the occupant of the White House?
31:59
Speaker 3: Well, that's the $ 64, 000 question. The first thing we have
32:03
Speaker 3: to do, though, is do our best to claw back
32:07
Speaker 3: the tariff authority we have progressively given presidents over the
32:10
Speaker 3: last 30 years.
32:11
Speaker 9: The 301 tariffs, the IEPA.
32:14
Speaker 3: Tariffs, 122, all that needs to come back. There's lots
32:19
Speaker 3: of different things driving the 3.7% inflation we saw today,
32:22
Speaker 3: including the war in Iran, including the huge demand for
32:27
Speaker 3: electricity from the data centers. But the biggest single piece,
32:30
Speaker 3: according to the Wall Street Journal and others, and the
32:32
Speaker 3: New York Federal Reserve Bank, are the tariffs, a huge
32:36
Speaker 3: sales tax on the American people.
32:39
Speaker 1: Well, somebody, Congressman, welcome back, who spent.
32:41
Speaker 10: so many years as a business leader, a business owner,
32:44
Speaker 10: is specifically in the auto business. I'm wondering your thoughts
32:49
Speaker 10: right now on this interest rate environment that we're in.
32:53
Speaker 10: All the auto stocks have been struggling through this period
32:55
Speaker 10: of time, and as costs rise, that makes it less
32:58
Speaker 10: likely for people to be buying new automobiles. The CPI
33:01
Speaker 10: today saw a huge jump in costs for used cars.
33:05
Speaker 10: But broadly speaking, you've been through these interest rate cycles before.
33:09
Speaker 10: When you start seeing numbers like this, what does it
33:12
Speaker 10: mean for the broader economy? What does that pressure on
33:15
Speaker 10: the consumer mean for purchasing power?
33:18
Speaker 9: It's very real.
33:20
Speaker 3: I've been selling cars for a long time, and almost
33:22
Speaker 3: every buyer is a payment buyer. They don't look at
33:25
Speaker 3: the total cost. They say, what's it going to cost
33:27
Speaker 3: me per month? And when interest rates, you know, a
33:29
Speaker 3: couple of years ago when we were selling cars with 0%
33:31
Speaker 3: interest rates or 0.99, leasing out there at 1%, we
33:36
Speaker 3: were doing really well, and the construct was doing very well.
33:39
Speaker 3: But now with the rates, well, you look at 7%.
33:44
Speaker 3: Mortgage rates, for example, the interest rates on cars, 5%, 6%, 7%.
33:47
Speaker 3: It makes it much more difficult to buy a new car,
33:51
Speaker 3: especially when the average price of a new car in
33:53
Speaker 3: America is more than $ 50, 000.
33:57
Speaker 6: Well, and the cost of the fuel you need to
33:59
Speaker 6: power the car in a lot of cases, at least
34:01
Speaker 6: if it's a regular internal combustion engine, is obviously higher
34:04
Speaker 6: as well, which brings us to the gas price issue
34:07
Speaker 6: and diesel and the way in which the president is
34:11
Speaker 6: attempting to bring those costs down.
34:13
Speaker 11: Of course, announcing last.
34:14
Speaker 6: Week a deal with Russia to allow it to supply
34:17
Speaker 6: hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel onto the global market,
34:21
Speaker 6: releasing the sanctions on that. Essentially, we've seen reports pushback
34:26
Speaker 6: from even some of your Republican colleagues, like Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, who,
34:30
Speaker 6: of course, is running for Senate in Iowa, suggesting that
34:33
Speaker 6: this is not the right answer. If allowing Russian diesel
34:36
Speaker 6: onto the market isn't the right answer for bringing costs down,
34:39
Speaker 6: and if asking Ukraine to stop attacking Russian energy infrastructure
34:44
Speaker 6: isn't either, then what is?
34:45
Speaker 3: Well, first of all, let me just emphasize that it
34:49
Speaker 3: is not the right policy. It's going to put at
34:51
Speaker 3: least $ 4 trillion into the Russian economy.
34:55
Speaker 9: That they will use to continue the war against Ukraine.
34:58
Speaker 3: It flies totally in the face of the Lindsey Graham
35:01
Speaker 3: Russia sanctions bill that we passed just a few weeks ago,
35:04
Speaker 3: which I thought, by the way, was a very foolish
35:06
Speaker 3: bill because it gave Trump unlimited tariff ability for the
35:09
Speaker 3: indefinite future. He can tariff anybody he wants at any
35:12
Speaker 3: rate he wants, as long as he says they're somehow
35:14
Speaker 3: helping Russia. In the meantime, he turns right around and
35:17
Speaker 3: helps Russia. with this huge, huge purchase on the diesel fuel.
35:22
Speaker 3: By the way, every energy expert I see read says
35:25
Speaker 3: it will make very little difference to the diesel prices
35:28
Speaker 3: in our country.
35:29
Speaker 9: It's just too small of a gap. What do we do?
35:32
Speaker 3: Well, the very first thing is get back to peace
35:35
Speaker 3: with Iran, something like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
35:38
Speaker 3: that Trump walked away from that enables us to open
35:40
Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz and calms the Houthis over in
35:43
Speaker 3: the Red Sea.
35:47
Speaker 10: Really, a Interesting moment we're in here, considering there's a
35:50
Speaker 10: 2022 law that bans our purchase of exported gas from Russia, correct?
35:56
Speaker 1: I mean, shouldn't Congress be able to put this? So
36:01
Speaker 1: it's illegal.
36:01
Speaker 3: I've been talking to the Jamie Raskins and the others
36:03
Speaker 3: of the world who are constitutional lawyers. There should be
36:06
Speaker 3: a way to say, the president, you need to obey
36:08
Speaker 3: the law that was passed by a Republican Senate, I believe,
36:13
Speaker 3: and a Democratic House.
36:14
Speaker 9: But it is the law.
36:18
Speaker 6: Well, the president obviously hasn't always necessarily suggested that the
36:23
Speaker 6: laws should restrain him from doing certain things, whether or
36:27
Speaker 6: not courts ultimately would rule in his favor or the
36:32
Speaker 6: favor of Congress, I guess, would be a question for
36:34
Speaker 6: litigation on this. But this is the reality for the
36:38
Speaker 6: time being. Congressman, tied to this, and I mentioned this
36:40
Speaker 6: a moment ago, is the suggestion the president has made
36:43
Speaker 6: that Ukraine needs to stop attacking Russian immigrants. energy infrastructure
36:47
Speaker 6: and refineries. He actually announced over the weekend an energy
36:50
Speaker 6: ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. And yet we saw overnight
36:53
Speaker 6: Russia attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure and resulting in a number
37:00
Speaker 6: of fatalities. If Russia isn't abiding by the ceasefire, what
37:04
Speaker 6: should be done about it? Should the president actually be
37:07
Speaker 6: implementing some of those tariffs, the authority of which he
37:10
Speaker 6: now has, as you mentioned?
37:12
Speaker 9: A wonderful question. Absolutely not.
37:14
Speaker 3: And it was weird that the president announced a ceasefire
37:17
Speaker 3: and both the Russians and the Ukrainians announced that they
37:19
Speaker 3: had not heard of that ceasefire. And Ukraine, Zelensky said
37:24
Speaker 3: he will abide by the ceasefire that he didn't know
37:26
Speaker 3: about as long as the Russia stops attacking the Ukrainian infrastructure.
37:31
Speaker 9: And I take him at his word, but they both
37:33
Speaker 9: have to stop.
37:35
Speaker 1: What's going on in Virginia, Congressman?
37:37
Speaker 10: I see that the state has recorded nearly twice as
37:39
Speaker 10: many early ballots as it had at the same point
37:43
Speaker 10: in 2022. There's been quite a bit of local reporting
37:46
Speaker 10: on this. Does the surge in early voting lead you
37:51
Speaker 10: to predict outcomes in November?
37:53
Speaker 9: Well, not final outcomes.
37:55
Speaker 3: We have three or four races where Democrats can take
37:58
Speaker 3: back seats. Elaine Luria, Tom Perriello, Shannon Taylor against, you know,
38:03
Speaker 3: sometimes long-term Republican incumbents. The president's not popular in Virginia
38:09
Speaker 3: at all for many reasons. Probably the very first one
38:12
Speaker 3: was that those cuts very badly harmed the Virginia economy.
38:16
Speaker 3: We had so many federal workers, you know, maybe 20,000
38:19
Speaker 3: just in my district and another 20,000 federal contractors who
38:22
Speaker 3: lost their jobs right away, many of whom are still struggling.
38:26
Speaker 9: So it's a, you know, Virginia has been very dependent
38:29
Speaker 9: on workers.
38:30
Speaker 3: Not just military spending, but also on providing the base
38:34
Speaker 3: for federal government services.
38:37
Speaker 9: And Doe's really took a hit to that.
38:39
Speaker 3: So that and just in general in Virginia, we love
38:43
Speaker 3: to think of ourselves as Virginia gentlemen and gentlewomen.
38:46
Speaker 9: And this president flies in the face of that that idea. Interesting.
38:51
Speaker 6: Well, just quickly, as you mentioned, the defense aspect of
38:55
Speaker 6: Virginia specifically, What do you think will happen in the
38:59
Speaker 6: lame duck session when it comes to defense spending and
39:01
Speaker 6: specifically the supplemental spending that was included in the reconciliation
39:05
Speaker 6: 3.0 package that didn't advance in the Senate? Do you
39:07
Speaker 6: think we'll see action on that, Congressman? Or is this
39:11
Speaker 6: just a question of what.
39:12
Speaker 11: Happens in January?
39:15
Speaker 9: I think that's more of a January question.
39:17
Speaker 3: I do think we will try hard to get the
39:19
Speaker 3: National Defense Authorization Act, the NDAA, passed in the midterms.
39:23
Speaker 3: I think there's a broad bipartisan consensus that needs to
39:26
Speaker 3: get done. I don't think there's any sense of Democrats
39:31
Speaker 3: and some Republicans to do the huge new supplemental, whether
39:34
Speaker 3: it's $ 80 billion or whatever, for Hegseth. And this is
39:37
Speaker 3: especially in light of Hegseth now trumpeting his notion of
39:41
Speaker 3: the the televised.
39:43
Speaker 9: Execution of the murderer on the military base.
39:47
Speaker 3: There's a revulsion to excess bestiality that is not working
39:54
Speaker 3: well in Virginia.
39:56
Speaker 10: Congressman Don Beyer, Democrat, 8th District, from just across the river.
40:04
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
40:07
Speaker 10: Make sure to subscribe, if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
40:10
Speaker 10: or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find
40:13
Speaker 10: us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime Eastern
40:17
Speaker 10: at Bloomberg.com.