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Episode 57 - 6/17/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 57 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Monday, a new week begins. Hope everyone had a fantastic
0:39
weekend and even better Father's Day.
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Did you guys all have a make a call to dear old dad?
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Or maybe you were like me and had those, you know, those
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tingly feelings thinking about Field of Dreams on my favorite
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movies of all time. And yes, I'm man enough to admit
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I cry every time Kevin Costner says, hey, dad won't have a
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catch. Gets me literally every single
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time. But anyway, happy Father's Day
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to all the dads out there, whether you are a father
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yourself. I, I am a dog dad, not a human
1:06
dad yet. Hopefully, God willing one day.
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But whether you're a father, grandfather, whether, whether
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you got that dad in your life or maybe sadly he passed or he's no
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longer with us. Either way, shout out to all the
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dads out there, all the wise guys as we like to call them.
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Also guys pretty good weekend overall because we had a huge
1:23
hit in the UFC biting in the UFC fighting or biting as I like to
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call it, because we had miles Johns come through Bigley for
1:32
the team. I was really happy because
1:34
usually these bouts are on pay-per-view and I'm unless I'm
1:37
with my buddies and we all pitch in 10 bucks, no way I'm I'm
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going to pay for these pay per views.
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Luckily this one was on ESPN so I got to watch it got to sweat
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it. And we love miles Johns because
1:46
he was a dog to fave line move open as a dog flip to a
1:50
favorite. One of the easiest and best
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indicators of smart money moving a number had a great bet split
1:55
only half the tickets, but nearly 3/4 of the money.
1:57
Big youth advantage, better striking accuracy and defense
2:00
came through Bigley with a unanimous decision.
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Miles Johns with the winner. So if we had Johns over the
2:07
weekend. Now turning our attention to
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today as a new week begins June 17th.
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We got a lot to get to today. I have a 5 pack of sweats
2:15
excited to share with you, highlighted by game five of the
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NBA Finals. That's right, my Boston Celtics
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who were unable to close it out in game four got blown out.
2:26
That was that was fun picking them to to win that game and and
2:28
losing by like a million points. But anyway, series shifts back
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to Boston at the Garden here for tonight, 8:30 PM Eastern Time.
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And I have a play on this game for you.
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I'm not going to bet the side right now.
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We have the Celtics favored about by 6 1/2.
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Actually saw some books fall away from Boston -7 1/2 down to
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6 1/2. So maybe some Mavs money out
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there, but I'm going to focus on the total.
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I have a very good angle here that I wish I'd played more
2:51
during the post season, but I'm going to take advantage
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hopefully for tonight I got to play on Celtics Mavs Game 5
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total and then right back to Major League Baseball.
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Love grinding MLB had a good weekend overall with a bunch of
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sharp report wins for beeson.com.
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You can always catch my articles.
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I'll tweet those out around noon time each day.
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Those are seven day a week articles because I love writing
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them. But anyway, 4 bets on the
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diamond. All four money lines here,
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including couple favorites or actually kind of a pick em a
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dog. Two favorites we're going to
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pretty much hit on everything today on episode 57 of the all
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systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
3:27
So to start off the pod here for today guys, let's get to the
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game of the night. Dallas Mavericks Boston Celtics
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now going into tonight as the Celtics have a chance to win and
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hoist banner 18 long-awaited banner 18 since the 2008
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Celtics. But anyway, Celtics are up three
3:43
to one member. They're up three.
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O could have closed out in Dallas, did not.
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Series price, though, still heavy on Boston -1800 that's an
3:50
implied probability of nearly 95%.
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Remember going into it, I think Celtics were -200 so you're
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feeling pretty darn good if you got Boston to win this series,
3:58
seeing if they can close it out here for tonight.
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I did hear a report about Porzingis.
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He's going to give it a go. Same sort of thing.
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Maybe he'll play, maybe he won't.
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Porzingis obviously something to monitor.
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But I think even if he does play, how effective will he be?
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To me, Porzingis not a huge angle here one way or the other.
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Obviously, if he's healthy, a huge angle.
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But again, he's been banged up. Feels like each game it's, hey,
4:19
he's going to give it a go and then hey, that he doesn't play.
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So we'll see what happens here for tonight.
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But anyway, I mentioned a second ago, looking toward the spread,
4:27
we did see this line fall a little bit away from Boston.
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They open as high as -7 1/2. They're down to 6 1/2 currently
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using ourbeeson.com bet splits, which come directly from
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DraftKings. You can find them at beeson.com.
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Right now you are getting 66% of bets, 72% of spread dollars on
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Boston. The line did fall a little bit
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again toward Dallas. If you're making me pick a side
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of lean Dallas just based on that line move.
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But again, Celtics are the kind of team where lane 6 1/2 they
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can win by 20. So I don't want to touch this
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spread. I'm going to instead focus on
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the total. Now the total jumped out to me
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for a couple reasons. Number one is the fact that it
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did rise a little bit. This total open up at most shops
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around 209 1/2. It's now been that up to 210 to
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10 1/2. So it has gone up.
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We do have a majority of bets and dollars on the over, around
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65% of bets and dollars on the over.
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So you might be thinking, hey, play the over, right?
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It ticked up a little bit, but I'm actually going to go the
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other way. I'm going to go a contrarian
5:25
inflated underplay. So here's a couple reasons why.
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Number one, I just want to make sure I'm contrarian in a heavily
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backed game. Big, big mistake I made playing
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the Celtics last time we had the pod on Friday.
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I was with the public and I even remember saying if the Celtics,
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you know, lose, you know, hey, this is going to be a spot where
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why on earth was I with the masses, which I never want to be
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even as a contrarian better Sometimes you fall into that
5:47
fall into that trap sometimes, but right off the bat, extremely
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heavily backed game could be the last game of the year.
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I want to be on the contrarian side.
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I want to be against the masses, against all the drunk people at
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the bar who are sweating you over so I can be contrarian.
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Only 36% of bets on the under. Secondly, a little bit of an
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inflated under here because again, open two O 9 1/2.
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Now we're getting 210 1/2. Make sure you shop around and
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find that hook on the 210 1/2 because some books are at 2:10.
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So shop around and get that best number.
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But here's the other angle. This is a system that I wish I'd
6:16
played more often, but if you like it, look at a magic number.
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You know the magic number of course, to break even.
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Betting on sports is 52.38%, assuming -110 standard juice.
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That's the amount of bets you got to win to break even.
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Anything above that, you're you're a winner.
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Well, there's kind of a similar line of demarcation when it
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comes to post season totals. And that number, ironically
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enough, is 210 when the total is 210 or more in the postseason
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this year, the under is 30 and 1764%.
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That is a 22% ROI. So just goes to show you that
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again, a 210 and a regular season game is extremely low.
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You barely see those anymore. We're used to more, you know,
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2/22/30, even two 40s postseason 210 is kind of a high total
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because again, the style of play is different.
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You're faced with elimination tonight.
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And one system that I love is game six and really Game 7
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playoff unders, whether it's hockey or NHL or NBA doesn't
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matter. But when you're faced with
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elimination, you kind of really, you know, you're very careful,
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you don't take too many chances. You use up the shot clock that
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can really benefit under. It's just the style of play.
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You bog it down and, and play 1/2 court game here.
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But really it's that that magic number of 210 again, when the
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total is 210 or more, the under is hitting nearly 2/3 of the
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time. So we're contrarian by going
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under. We have this great system match
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on the under. We do have a couple really good
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under refs, including John Goebel.
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He is 53% to the under. Zarbo and Kennedy are more like
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5051%. But we do have a good angle.
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They're not a extent. I should have known on Friday
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the extender did it again, Scott Foster.
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But anyway, Goebels are pretty good under ref.
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And then a little bit of a cherry on top here.
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The under in the NBA Finals. Can anyone guess it's four and O
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all four games have gone under. Maybe the public is sweating
8:02
this over. Just saying, hey, we can't get
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another under. It's bound to, you know, it's
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due. It's got to go over which but,
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but here's the thing. You never want to bet based on
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what you think is due, expect or want or hope will happen.
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Will you make bets based on, again, cold, hard facts, data
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betting systems as we like to look at them.
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But here's the last little angle.
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I dialed up Rhythm, who does a fantastic job of powering this
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app. And I actually want to give a
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shout out to my, my guy Brian Bichkovsky, who is basically the
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brains of the masterminds, along with Megan and my buddy James
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Santora Rhythm. And I actually was talking to
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him and I'm, I'm kind of a, you know, rhythm does does a great
8:37
job powering this PO, but also try to work with rhythm to kind
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of give them my thoughts of, you know, how things they can
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improve feedback, user feedback. So I had a, a great hour long
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conversation with a couple people at rhythm telling them,
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you know, my thoughts about the app, how great it is, how it can
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get even better. And I was asking about, you
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know, hey, is there a way in rhythm where, you know, we can
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like basically quantify everyone who has a rhythm account?
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So if you have a rhythm account and you've created a model,
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where do these models lie? Like, for example, the Celtics
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Mavs game tonight, I'm going under 210 1/2.
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I was curious and I mentioned this last week, what's everyone
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else in rhythm doing? All the other really smart
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people who either create their own systems or follow the AI
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backed models, where are they at?
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Well, I got an e-mail the other day from my guy Brian.
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Again, the brain's behind rhythm.
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And he said, hey, funny you ask. We're working on a new feature
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called the Rhythm Community Model, which basically pulls all
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the systems that are created and then kind of tells us the
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percentage of systems that are telling you to go over or under
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or dog or favorite, you know, money, line spread, whatever it
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may be. So Brian turned on this
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incredible feature for me. I pop it open.
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I go to the under for the Celtics game here tonight and I
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see a new angle here. It says all models in the Rhythm
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Community, 81.8% of them are going under, 18.2% of them are
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going over. So that's really just, you know,
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fascinating and incredible to me because that tells me that, you
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know, all the smart people at Rhythm, all their models that
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they've created are also leaning under.
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So I know when we're talking about like community, you know,
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you think about the public, like sometimes it's bad to be with
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the masses. I think in a data-driven app
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like Rhythm where people spend, you know, a lot of time and
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effort and are really data-driven, you got to think
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about the type of people who download the Rhythm app.
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They're wise guys. They're the they're the sharp
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bettors, including one guy in particular who I know and love
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who sent me a great tweet earlier today.
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I don't know if he's listening to the pod or not, but my guy
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payday at must be nice 2629. He was giving me a shout out.
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He said had to credit Josh insights first person I heard
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promoting rhythm. And since then my life has
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changed in a good way. Cash are the huge AI caddy,
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which again, if you're into golf, rhythm does a great job.
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They actually can give you bets on hole by hole basis.
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But anyway, to me here being the, with the 81.8% that's on
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the under, that's a good thing. You know, if it's 81% of bets on
10:56
an NFL game, Oh, no way. I do not want to be with the
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masses there. But in this case, you got to
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think average Joe's at the bar, they don't know about rhythm.
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We want to teach them about rhythm so they can make smart
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bets and win. But in terms of the, the type of
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user that has an accountant rhythm, again, these are wise
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guys, wise gals who know what they're doing and have and
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embrace the, the basically data, not opinion data.
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So I thought that was fantastic. Brian wanted me to, wanted me to
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kind of just mention the fact that, you know, this new
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feature, the rhythm community model feature, it's not yet
11:27
available on the app. They're still doing some tweaks.
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They want to make sure it's winning and they're proud of it
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and they feel like it's in a great spot to basically, you
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know, flip the switch and, and provide it for the masses.
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So if you go to rhythm right now, you're not going to see
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this feature, but I, I'm able to see it 'cause I'm kind of a beta
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tester right now. And the fact that again, the
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majority, vast majority of betters here on the Celtics game
11:47
tonight, they're going under. I'm going under 2, not under
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under as you like to say in Boston.
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So give me the under 210 1/2 for Game 5, Boston and the Dallas
11:58
Mavericks tonight and I'll cross my fingers and hope that the
12:01
Celtics win the game as well. So with that being said, just
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talked NBA, let's get to Major League Baseball.
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A little bit smaller than usual slate today.
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There's only nine games overall, but I was running through all
12:11
the games here. I found four that caught my eye.
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So let's just start banging them out.
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First one here on the board, San Diego Padres and the
12:18
Philadelphia Phillies found a good sharp steam move here in
12:21
favor of the Phills going Phillies here in this one, guys.
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This one jumped out to me for a few reasons.
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Let's set the stage and I'll tell you why I like Philly.
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First one coming into it, Padres 37 and 38 just got swept by the
12:33
Mets. What's gotten into the Mets?
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I think they've won four or five in a row, but they lost.
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The Padres did to the Mets on Father's Day.
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Of course. How can the Padres, the fathers
12:42
lose on Father's Day anyway? They lost 11 to six as a -, 140
12:46
Rd. favorite. Phillies, meanwhile, 47 and 24.
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But they did just lose two or three against the Orioles.
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They lost eight to three yesterday as a + 115 road dog
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pitching match up tonight hopefully favors the Phills.
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We have the Padres going with Randy Vasquez, who's one and
13:01
three 4.93 ERA. He'll be opposed by the lefty
13:05
Christopher Sanchez had a good year three and three three-point
13:08
O 7 ERA. But basically big reason here to
13:10
like the Phillies massive steam move with no no let up, no buy
13:14
back whatsoever. So this game actually open
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Philly like as low as -165 Philly has now been bet up all
13:20
the way to -185 -. 190 and again, check out my Twitter page
13:25
at Josh under score insights because again I write that V sin
13:28
sharp report each day comes out around noon.
13:30
I highlighted Philly earlier today, got them a little bit
13:33
lower around like -180 but anyway, I'm still playing
13:36
Philly. If you haven't bet it yet, shop
13:37
around. Maybe you can find like a -, 185
13:39
still. But the Phills are getting 90%
13:42
of bets, nearly 95% of dollars, great low bets, higher dollars,
13:45
bet split and a big in addition to a big steam move.
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Also, good system match here, favorites, awful loss with a
13:51
winning record, playing a team who's below 500.
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So you're expected to win, you're awful loss, you're hungry
13:56
and you want to bounce back and you're betting you're playing a
13:59
team with a sub 500 record, a losing record.
14:02
That system this year is 69 and 3765% with a 5% ROI.
14:08
Phillies, meanwhile, they're 41 and 1870% with a 12% ROI as a
14:13
favorite. That's the 4th best chalk team
14:15
in Major League Baseball in particular.
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Take it a step further, Philly. When they're at home against a
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below 500 team, which quantifies here for tonight or qualifies,
14:24
they're 18 and 386 percent, 33% ROI.
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Phillies, by the way, are three and O against the fathers this
14:30
year. Hopefully that continues.
14:32
Sanchez 1.95 ERA at home versus 4.32 on the road.
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Luckily, he's at home here for tonight.
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And Vasquez 5.5, OERA on the road versus 4.43 at home.
14:44
He's on the road tonight. Lastly, the Padres against
14:46
lefties, not very good. They're hitting 227.
14:48
That's 25th and Major League Baseball.
14:51
Be at it all up here, guys. Massive steam toward Philly.
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No buyback, no let up. I got to play Philly here.
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I got the Phills a little bit earlier today around -180 NI,
14:59
Oakland around -185 maybe even -190 keep on cruising.
15:04
Next one up here for tonight, Boston Red Sox and the Toronto
15:08
Blue Jays. Big match up here north of the
15:10
border, north of the border. And even though I'm a Red Sox
15:13
fan, I'm going to go Toronto here.
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I saw a good sharp move here toward Toronto as well as a fade
15:19
sun and a baseball angle, which is an angle that again, I was
15:21
introduced to when I first started, got getting into the
15:24
industry, breaking in at Sports Insights back in 2011 and always
15:27
stuck with me. But anyway, let's set the stage
15:29
here. Red Sox 37 and 35, they're
15:31
actually playing pretty well recently.
15:33
I took I think 2 out of three against the Phillies, just took
15:35
two out of three against the Yankees.
15:37
They won last night 9:00 to 3:00 as a + 125 home dog.
15:41
Meanwhile, the Jays, 35 and 36 they have.
15:44
They did just win two out of three against the Guardians,
15:47
though. They won seven to six yesterday
15:48
as a -, 120 home favorite. Tonight's series opener.
15:51
The Sox are going with Rady, Nick Pavetta who's three and
15:54
four with a 3.88 ERA. Blue Jays will counter with
15:57
lefty. You say Kachuki who's four and
16:00
five with a 3.26 ERA. So I like about this one.
16:03
Two major factors. One is that the public doesn't
16:06
know what to do here. The public is right down the
16:08
middle 5050. The bet splits of DraftKings 50%
16:11
Red Sox, 50% Toronto. But always remember this mention
16:14
this quite a bit on the pod here.
16:16
But I like to call the 5050 line move if the tickets are down the
16:19
middle. Think of it this way.
16:20
Theoretically in a vacuum, if tickets are even, you would
16:24
think the line wouldn't move at all, right?
16:26
There's no there's no reason for the odds makers to adjust it one
16:29
way or the other because the action split.
16:31
But remember, we have a difference between tickets or
16:34
bets and money or dollars or handle.
16:37
So even though the tickets might be even, yeah, think about where
16:40
are those tickets coming from? You might have 10 tickets.
16:42
They're five on both sides. But what if the five on Team A
16:45
are all $5 average Joe bets, Drunk guys at the bar.
16:48
The five bets on Team B or wiseguy bets, They're all $1000
16:51
bets, dime wagers. Well, even though it's 5050, you
16:54
want to be with that sharper money.
16:55
So looks like the sharper money here is on Toronto, because even
16:58
though it's 5050, Toronto has moved up -115 -, 120 up now to
17:04
-130 So about a 10 or 15 cent steam move in favor of Toronto
17:08
and a 5050 line move. Good quarrel to betting here.
17:11
Favorite low total pulling this one is 7 1/2 or 8.
17:14
Some eights have fallen to 7 1/2.
17:15
Eights are juiced down, really juiced up to the under 8 under
17:19
-120 but fewer amount of expected run scored.
17:23
More likely to come from quote UN quote the better team.
17:25
Not by the one loss record, but by who's favored tonight, which
17:28
would be Toronto. Also, I mentioned this or hinted
17:32
at it, but it's a fade follow schedule spot.
17:34
So what do I what do I mean by that?
17:36
It's a fate of Boston because the Red Sox just played on
17:39
Sunday Night Baseball. They played the late game.
17:43
It was a big series against the Yankees, their chief rival.
17:46
Now they have to turn around after not much sleep, go north
17:50
of the border, go through customs, play, play the next day
17:52
in Canada. On the flip side, the Jays, they
17:55
have no travel whatsoever. They just played a series at
17:58
home against the Guardians and now they are don't have to do
18:02
anything. They can sleep in their own bed,
18:03
wake up, and now host the Red Sox.
18:05
So Red Sox are in a tough schedule spot.
18:07
Toronto is in a comfortable schedule spot.
18:10
Also the Jays, they're 28 and 1861% with a 4% ROI as a
18:14
favorite this season. I think that they are the, I
18:16
want to say the 5th or 6th best chalk team in baseball.
18:20
But even though I'm a Sox fan, I got to go with the sharp move
18:22
toward Toronto. Shop around.
18:23
I got the Jays around -125 again, some shops now around
18:27
-130 keep on cruising. Next one for you, San Francisco
18:32
G Men and the Chicago Cubbies starting up a new series here at
18:37
Wrigley Field. I'm going to go with the G men
18:39
and tint. I'll tell you why.
18:41
First off, Giants 35 and 37. I am holding the Giants.
18:44
What was it over 83 1/2 or 84 1/2 win total as well as the the
18:50
Arizona Diamondbacks win total and they're both like hovering
18:52
around 500. I'm like, can you, can you get
18:53
going here? Anyway, they're both going to
18:56
make me sweat. Probably the last game of the
18:57
year will decide that bet. Hopefully not.
18:59
Hopefully they'll get hot. Anyway, San Fran Cubbies San
19:03
Fran 35 and 37 just lost two or three against the the Angels,
19:07
but they did avoid the sweep. They won thirteen to six
19:09
yesterday and the finale as a -, 165 home favorite.
19:13
Meanwhile, the Cubs 34 and 38, they did just lose two of three
19:17
against the Cardinals. They lost 2 to one yesterday as
19:20
a -, 125 home favorite. Pitch a match up here for
19:23
tonight. We have the the Giants going
19:26
with let's see, Jordan Hicks, the righty four and three
19:30
three-point O1 ERA. He'll be opposed by fellow
19:33
righty Javier Assad, who's four and two of the 2.81 ERAI
19:37
mentioned. I like San Fran, why do I like
19:38
San Fran? Because this line is dropping
19:40
away from Chicago toward the G men.
19:43
This game open with the Cubbies listed as high as a -, 125 home
19:46
favorite. Now the Cubs are down to like
19:48
-115 I see one book like -110 We've now seen this line go away
19:53
from Chicago toward San Francisco.
19:56
San Francisco is only getting. Let's see.
20:00
Or actually, I should have prefaced this by saying it's, it
20:02
is a reverse line move as well. 56% of bets around Chicago, yet
20:05
line is falling away from Chicago.
20:07
If a slight majority of bets around the Cubs open -125
20:11
shouldn't they be up to -130 -? 135?
20:13
No, it's gone the other way. So classic RLM here, line going
20:17
away from the popular side toward the unpopular side.
20:20
We've seen San Fran, even though they're they're only getting 44%
20:23
of bets, they've gone from plus 110 down to plus 100.
20:28
That's important. Obviously shop around because I
20:30
see like a - 1 O 5 + 1 O 2 + 100 - 1 O1.
20:35
If you can get any kind of plus money on San Fran, at least get
20:37
100 + + 100 'cause that way one unit will risking one unit will
20:41
get you one unit. But you may be able to find like
20:43
a plus one O 1 + 1 O2 out there. Again, every little cent matters
20:48
after a long course of a long year because those cents add up
20:52
may only be one or two on one particular game, but when you're
20:54
betting 1000 games a year again, that can really add up Anyway,
20:57
I'm going to bank on the giants bats.
20:59
They're hitting two 48315 runs scored.
21:02
Cubs are hitting two 26298 runs scored.
21:05
San Fran has some coral to betting dog high total.
21:08
We just mentioned Toronto favorite low total.
21:11
Well, this total is 10 or even 10 1/2.
21:14
I'll get to the reason why it's so high here, but higher
21:17
expected run scored total good thing for a dog more more
21:20
variants, more upset opportunities in terms of the
21:23
starting pitchers here. Assad's had a great year but and
21:26
two June starts he has a ERA of 6.1 O He has allowed seven runs
21:31
in his last 10.1 innings pitched.
21:33
And in terms of the total again going to the head, I'll go over
21:36
here because it is a windy Wrigley Field over.
21:39
If you look at the forecast here for tonight, it's going to be
21:42
about 90° and the wind is blowing out to dead center about
21:46
10 to 15 mph. And if you look at the way the
21:49
the total is has been bet it opened at 9 1/2, it's up to 10.
21:53
It's juiced up like it may even go to 10 1/2 and if you're
21:56
looking at the bet split only 24% bets 72% money is on that
22:01
over. That's a pretty good angle there
22:02
with the low bets, higher dollars.
22:04
Now I'm just going San Fran. I was able to get the G men at
22:06
plus one O 2. Again, if you're playing the
22:09
total, you got to think about leaning over or nothing, but I
22:13
laid off the total because I feel like I have a better edge
22:15
on San Fran. I'm going G men, give me the
22:18
Giants at plus one O2. Last bet of the night.
22:22
Late game here for tonight, Milwaukee Brew Crew and the Los
22:26
Angeles Angels. Now going to this one.
22:29
We have the Milwaukee Brewers at 42 and 29.
22:32
Just took two or three from the Reds.
22:34
Had a couple sharp report winners over the weekend as I
22:36
was playing Milwaukee. You might have played them as
22:39
well, but they're now facing the Halos.
22:42
Halos on the year 28 and 43. And they actually just did take
22:45
two or three from San Francis. Mentioned that a second ago.
22:48
But the pitching match up here for tonight, we have the Brewers
22:52
going with a guy I've never heard of, Carlos Rodriguez.
22:55
I was doing some research on him.
22:57
He's only 20. I think he's 22 years old and
23:00
he's making a second career start.
23:01
He was a six round pick from Nicaragua.
23:04
He wasn't that bad in his first big league debut.
23:06
It was against Toronto. It was a three nothing loss, but
23:09
he went 3.2 innings, gave up two runs and he struck out four.
23:13
So again, not great, not terrible.
23:15
Hopefully he's better this turn around.
23:17
But then he'll be opposed by Jose Soriano who is going for
23:20
the Angels. He's four and five, 3.48 ERA.
23:24
Now where am I going here? Let's make some beer.
23:27
Yeah, let's make some moonshine in our bathtub.
23:28
Let's go beer makers. I'm on Milwaukee, guys.
23:30
Give me Milwaukee here. Not a huge line move, but to me
23:33
it's a little bit of line movement and a value play on a
23:35
good team at a short number playing a sub 500 team.
23:39
So this game open at pretty much a pick'em.
23:40
It was minus one O 5, both sides.
23:43
Now we're seeing the line creep up just a tiny bit toward
23:45
Milwaukee. A lot of those -1 O fives are
23:47
now -110 I see one book at -115 toward Milwaukee.
23:51
So it's basically a pick'em and all movement liability has been
23:54
toward the Brew Crew. So that's kind of just a very
23:56
small indicator early on that the Brew Crew are taking in some
23:59
money here. Now a lot of system matches on
24:02
the Brewers one would just be a a very generic one, but a
24:05
interleague favorite, lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN
24:08
quote. The better team.
24:10
Also, we have a non division Rd. favorite off a win.
24:13
Those teams are 83 and 6158% this year, 3% ROI.
24:17
We also have a short Rd. favorite system match if you're
24:20
a short Rd. favorite -130 or less.
24:23
Those teams are 105 and 8356% with a 4% ROI this year.
24:28
Milwaukee, by the way, has been one of the best chalk teams in
24:31
baseball. They're 24 and 13 as a favorite,
24:33
65% with a 13% ROI. And I want to bet against LA in
24:39
terms of kind of what they did yesterday because if you saw the
24:42
game or even just saw the box score as they lost Bigley to the
24:46
G Men, they had an opener or maybe it was a starter and
24:50
opener, but only went two innings.
24:51
Basically, they they use their entire bullpen yesterday got so
24:54
bad they pitched Guillaume, a position player in the last
24:58
inning. So I've had to have a quick turn
25:00
around now play Milwaukee. And if you look at kind of the
25:04
pictures they've used, it seems like it's kind of a tough spot
25:07
here for the pitching staff of the Angels to kind of turn
25:11
around here and have have to do it right again and again.
25:14
Look at Milwaukee, they're pretty rested yesterday.
25:16
Colin Ray went six innings so their their bullpen wasn't as
25:21
taxed. So it seems like the bullpen
25:23
edge here or pitching staff edge would be toward Milwaukee with a
25:25
little more rest. I'm going to lean on Milwaukee's
25:28
offense. 13 two 54344 runs scored.
25:32
LA is hitting 240 with only 294 runs scored and the home Rd.
25:36
splits. Milwaukee's been decent on the
25:38
road, 20 and 17, but LA is only 11 and 23 at home.
25:42
That is the worst home record in baseball, so add it all up here,
25:46
guys. To me, if you're getting
25:47
Milwaukee with a little bit of line movement, some system
25:50
matches, more rested bullpen against a team who's below 500
25:54
and has the worst home record in baseball, I got to take
25:57
Milwaukee at a very short price here, guys, so shop around.
26:00
I got the Brew Crew at around -110 so Philly, Toronto, San
26:05
Francisco, and Milwaukee. Can we get two or three, ideally
26:09
three of those? Hopefully we can get the Celtics
26:11
under and hopefully we can have a winning night.
26:14
But that about does it for episode 57 of the All Systems Go
26:17
Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
26:20
Now I always use this part of the pod to ask something of you.
26:24
That's right, I need your help. Can you help me grow this
26:26
podcast organically? Can you recommend it to a
26:29
friend? Can you most of all give it a 5
26:31
star review on Spotify or iTunes?
26:33
That really goes a long way to gaining credibility and raising
26:37
awareness for the pod there. If there's an option to follow
26:39
the pod, if you follow it, it'll then alert you when a new pod
26:42
drops. That would really be a great,
26:44
you know, a great thing for me as well.
26:46
So we can get the follows up. But of course, if you haven't
26:50
done it yet, also I want to make sure that you download the
26:53
rhythm app as well as the juice reel app.
26:55
I forgot to mention, but Juice reel, who is our other fantastic
26:58
app who helps power this podcast.
27:01
They have their Robo Jackson two recommended best bet, best bets
27:04
each day. One of them I'm not going to
27:06
tell you. The other one you got to sign up
27:07
for your 7 day free trial and get it.
27:09
But one of them was Milwaukee. So I like that.
27:11
We overlapped on Milwaukee, but juice reel rhythm.
27:15
If you haven't done it yet, go sign up for the seven day free
27:17
trial of both and you can do it very easily by if you're
27:21
listening in Spotify or iTunes. I think it's on the YouTube
27:24
version as well. There should be a description of
27:26
the pot. It'll say like in episode 57 of
27:28
the pot, Josh has a 5 pack of plays, yadda yadda yadda, Scroll
27:32
down a little bit should have a link for rhythm and a link for
27:34
Juice Reel. So make sure you use those
27:35
custom links to sign up. So the Juice Reel knows that I
27:38
refer to you in their direction. That's very important.
27:41
Of course, if you enjoy the breakdowns each day on the pod,
27:43
you, you missed me. When I was in Africa, Jumbo
27:46
jumbo Asante sana, I miss Africa.
27:49
I was joking with my wife that ever since I got back from
27:51
Africa, I just feel at peace with the world.
27:53
I don't know what it is. I just I just feel more
27:54
grounded. Maybe was being out in the Bush
27:57
with all the wildlife that made me made me more comfortable with
28:00
my inner peace. But usually people saying like
28:02
shut up, who cares like anyway. But with that being said, if you
28:06
missed the pod alls in Africa, you enjoy listening the pod, you
28:09
like the breakdowns, you want to learn more in terms of being a
28:11
sharp data-driven contrarian better than guess what, I wrote
28:15
a book. I wrote a book called the
28:16
everything guide to sports betting.
28:18
All you got to do is go to Amazon.com, type in the
28:20
everything guide to sports betting.
28:21
Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
28:23
It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
28:26
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
28:28
locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
28:31
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
28:33
management plan. Chapters in all the major
28:35
sports, all included in the everything guide to sports
28:38
betting. Pick one up and guess what?
28:41
When I see at the book, I'll sign the book at the book and
28:44
I'll buy you a beer and I'll buy you a ginger ale if you don't
28:46
drink. Anyway, guys, that about does it
28:48
for Monday's edition of the All Systems Go Sports Betting pod
28:52
presented and powered by rhythm. Whether I see you at the Borgata
28:56
in Atlantic City, Twin River and Rhode Island, the Brook in New
28:59
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, at the
29:02
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
29:05
In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts or out in the
29:08
desert where the true grinders get down.
29:09
Where Billy Walters sends his number runners.
29:12
Where lowest juice possible is found.
29:13
The South Point or sweating, sharp contrarian plays.
29:16
Jumping in the stadium swim pool at Circa.
29:18
Wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
29:20
First off, I'm going to wish you a Happy Father's Day.
29:22
You can wish me happy Father's Day.
29:23
I'm a dog dad. But most of all, you're going to
29:26
flash me a Miles John's UFC ticket blighting in the arena.
29:32
Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
29:34
you. We're going to post about the
29:35
book sweat sharp and train plays all night long.
29:37
I'll tell you just a a real quick anecdote too.
29:40
Prior to sweating Miles Johnson, the UFC Saturday night, me and
29:44
the wife were looking for a movie to watch and I really
29:46
wanted to see Roadhouse, the new one with Jake Gyllenhaal and
29:49
Conor McGregor. And my wife's like, I don't want
29:51
to watch it. She was on her phone like on
29:54
TikTok or Instagram or just, you know, proves on your phone.
29:58
And usually I can tell, you know, if I have a game on, she
30:00
doesn't care about the game at all.
30:02
Or if I'm watching something she's not into, I'm into like
30:04
UFO docs and like, you know, weird crazy stuff.
30:07
But anyway, I kind of see her like watching the watching
30:10
Roadhouse and then she puts down her phone and we watch the whole
30:13
thing and she actually liked it. And I thought it was a great
30:15
movie. So maybe that was the good omen
30:18
because in in Roadhouse, Jake Gyllenhaal is a former UFC
30:21
fighter. Anyway, I thought the movie was
30:22
really good. Apparently I need to watch the
30:25
Patrick Swayze original one. But if you're looking for kind
30:27
of a dumb fun movie, a lot of action, and you know, I thought
30:30
it was pretty, pretty cool, watch the new Roadhouse.
30:33
I thought it was pretty good. Anyway, that about does it for
30:36
episode 57 of the pod. I know you came for movie
30:38
recommendations, but parting words as always, stay sharp,
30:42
stay contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
30:45
side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
30:47
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
30:50
Of course not. If you haven't realized yet,
30:51
betting is difficult. It's hard, it ain't easy, but we
30:54
can win and we can win by staying true to our model
30:57
against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
31:00
avoid parlays, get some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
31:03
to be successful sports bettors. So enjoy the sweats.
31:05
Everyone have a fantastic Monday.
31:08
I'll see you back tomorrow on a big Tuesday for episode 58 of
31:12
the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
31:15
Rhythm Go Selz.