Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 126 - 9/24/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 126 - 9/24/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:17
Hello, and welcome to episode 126 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
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guys. As the early portion of our week
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rolls on and we have a lot to get to on today's podcast.
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Half of it is going to be a research day, a homework day.
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I'm going to give you an early sharp report for College
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Football Week 54 bets that I have my eye on, including a
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couple that you may want to play sooner rather rather than later.
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Actually, a couple that I put in today.
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I know it's early, but I'm thinking we might get the best
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of the number early in the week. That's something I want to focus
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on moving forward is not just identifying sharp bets, but you
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know, trying to get a dog plus 3 1/2 before it falls to three or
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maybe trying to get a + 4 before it goes down to 3 1/2.
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So I do have 4 bets overall, including my favorite system
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match possibly of all time, which is the unranked home
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favorite verse ranked opponent. We got one of them this week.
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But then also, I'm going to test a theory in Major League
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Baseball. Now I know we're going down to
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the wire here in MLB. There's only about a week left,
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but I noticed something in terms of totals where totals are
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really leaning in One Direction. Maybe it's over, maybe it's
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under. Stay tuned.
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I'll tell you which direction they're leaning.
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And then I'm going to load up with 7 bets in Major League
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Baseball time. I know it's a lot, but I'm
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thinking, hey, if this edge is predictive, which hopefully it
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is, which I have a pretty strong confidence in, then why don't we
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try to maximize our edge? So I got a 7 pack in baseball,
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and then I have an early sharp report for college football.
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Now, looking back to our last night, a very frustrating night,
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I must say. One in 4 -, 3.1 units.
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Now, we had a great hit with the Washington Commanders.
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That was a pleasant surprise. I was.
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I went into that game saying, hey, can they lose by 7 and
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cover with the hook? Well, didn't have to lose by 7.
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They absolutely rolled 38 to 33, beat the Bengals, super
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contrarian play. A lot of the seven and a half's
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got down to seven and something to keep an eye out for these big
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dogs getting 6 1/2 points or more.
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I think they're now 8 and one or nine and O or something like
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that. Something crazy ATS but a great
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hit there with Washington. But that's when our our luck
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ended because the Jaguars, what a pathetic, disgusting
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performance from the Jaguars. What really frustrated me
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though, guys is like that's a play that, you know, looking
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back on it, you take a dog getting, you know, 4 1/2 five
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and a half five and they lose by 37.
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You're like what an idiot I was to play Jacksonville.
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Obviously you feel that way, but I don't really feel like an
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idiot. That was the really sharp bet.
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And I know it's no consolation prize, but I'll just give you
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the, the, you know, the, the closing line.
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I mean, we beat the closing line whether you got 5 1/2 or five.
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This line closed at 4 1/2, even closed at 4:00 at some shop.
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So we did our part. We identified a sharp move
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toward Jacksonville. They just didn't even show up.
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What a pathetic, listless performance from a just garbage
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team. So I was disappointing.
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I would almost rather have said I almost rather would have seen,
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you know, we get a A5 and a half of five and then it shot up to
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Buffalo and they close at 6:00. At least that way I'll say, OK,
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I was on the wrong side. The line went against me.
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Sometimes it it hurts when you beat a closing line and do your
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part and then the team doesn't show up for you because again,
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you, you follow the market. You're always trained to beat
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the closing line, which we did. Yet Jacksonville did not even
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show up, which was a little bit frustrating.
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Player props came up short. Robinson over 53 1/2 for rushing
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yards only at 33. Cook over 61 1/2 only at 39.
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So that was kind of frustrating there with the player props and
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then little insult injury was the Diamondbacks.
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Diamondbacks in a must win spot with a good sharp line move end
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up losing to a team that's already out of it in the Giants.
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So I'm looking for a bounce back day today guys after a night
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where not much went our way. Let's see if we can get back in
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the green for today. So I want to start off with the
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homework portion of the day, looking at the college football
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slate and early sharp moves for Week 5.
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And then we're going to transition over to a big
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baseball day. And I'm going to give you my my
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kind of interesting angle today that I'm going to hope, you
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know, gives us a couple units or two.
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Anyway, let's look at college football big slate here.
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And I'm going to focus on four of the most heavily bet games of
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the week that are all taking in some really sharp action.
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So we got to start off with Georgia and Alabama by far, in a
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way, the most heavily back game of the week.
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I love that they put this 7:30 PM Eastern Time primetime game.
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So not only is it two of the best teams in college football,
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but it's a prime time spot. Everybody's going to be watching
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this game. So what do I look for in
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primetime games especially? I like to go to contrarian and I
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want a little bit of smart money.
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So what are we seeing here? Well, looks like Alabama is the
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sharp bet. I'm going Alabama here, guys.
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The key thing is try to get the 2 1/2 cuz some shops are even
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down to two or 1 1/2. This line is kind of all over
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the place, but it jumped out to me.
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Obviously 2 great teams. Georgia's three and O ranked
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second. Alabama is 3 and O ranked 4th.
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So two top five clubs here. What's notable is that the
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public is saying give me Georgia.
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It's a very short number. Georgia open as as high as a
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four and a half point Rd. favorite and the public, it's
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not 80% currently it's about 56%.
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So it's a little bit more than half the tickets are saying to
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me. Georgia, they're the higher
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ranked team is when rankings can really come into play because
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they are #2 versus Bama #4 But even though you're getting 56%
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of spread bets on Georgia, guys, this line is really moved toward
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Alabama. Alabama went from as high as
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plus 4 1/2 now down to plus 2 1/2.
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Some shops even down to two, some shops now even down to 1
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1/2. So consistent movement in favor
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of Alabama. That's normal because #1 they
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have a reverse line movement. It's a heavily bet nationally
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televised 730 game every. Not everyone but a majority is
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playing. Georgia get lines going to Bama.
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Bama would also have that conference dog kind of, you
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know, angle there in terms of two SEC teams.
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Kind of like divisional dogs in the NFL.
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The built in familiarity, leveling the playing field,
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benefiting the team getting points.
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Albion was also a dog who can score.
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If you look at the points scored this year, kind of crazy.
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Alabama was put up 147. Georgia's only put up 95.
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So if I'm on a dog, I need a dog who either plays great defense
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and keeps it as a low scoring game or a dog that can put up
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points and keep pace or backdoor cover.
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So my mind is made-up here. I'm going Alabama.
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Here's the thing though, guys, Alabama.
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Like if you can find a book still hanging a 2 1/2 on
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Alabama, I'm going to take that right now.
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So I'm looking at I'm pulling up my my app which gives me all the
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games and gives me all of the shop for the best line
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opportunities. Also mention Juice Reel, which
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is one of our favorite sports betting apps.
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They do a great job as well of giving you all the numbers so
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you can quickly find the best price.
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But if I'm currently looking at this Georgia, Alabama game, I do
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have one book. Let me just double check this
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here to make sure this is right because a lot of the market is
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kind of all over the place. But I do have one book that is
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still at 2 1/2. If you have a FanDuel account,
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FanDuel is still offering Alabama plus 2 1/2 at -115
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Again, I'm looking at Caesar's ESPN bet.
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They're two bet MGM is down to 1 1/2.
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So here's the thing. If you have a book that is
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giving you Bama plus 2 1/2, I'm playing that right now because
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it feels to me like 2 1/2 might be your best number.
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If you are at a book at 2 or 1 1/2, I don't think it's a bad
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idea to wait because maybe you start to see some buyback on
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Georgia between now and Saturday.
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But looking at a contrarian, heavily bet sharp reverse line
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move, conference dog dog who can score system match.
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I know I'm on Bama, but again, I want to get the best number.
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But if you have an axe access to FanDuel and a 2 1/2, I actually
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put that bed in today. Bama Plus 2 1/2.
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Next one for you. Let's go to my favorite system
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match of all time. Unranked home fav VS ranked
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opponent. So this is BYU and Baylor.
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It's a noon kick off on Saturday.
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Now the crazy thing about sports betting is one week you can love
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A-Team and they can come through for you, The next week you might
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bet against them or vice versa. That team for me is BYU had a
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great outright win rolling against Kansas State.
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Now I'm going to bet against them and I'm going to go with
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Baylor in this one. Now, you might think I'm crazy,
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but there is a lot of smart money in a great system match on
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Baylor. So going into this one, we had
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Baylor -3 what's notable is BYU four and O rank 22nd, Baylor two
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and two. Remember, Baylor gave up that
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Hail Mary touchdown and lost in overtime to Colorado.
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But if you look at, we've seen across the market here,
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everybody and their mother is on BYU this game open Baylor -3 And
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this is the, you know, the, this is basically the public saying
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the wrong team is favored, which I always take exception with
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because no, the right team is always favored based upon the
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predict, the projections that are set using the power ratings
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and models and algorithms. You know, it's a fair price.
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It's just your perception or your bias that makes you think
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the wrong team is favored. Believe me, you know, the wise
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guys, they're the odds makers who are the sharpest people in
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the room. They're not going to, you know,
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put the, the minus in front of a team that should be a plus or
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vice versa. But anyway, everyone's playing
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BYU. BYU is getting 75% of spread
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bets. But Baylor open -3 they've
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either stayed three or gotten up to -3 1/2.
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So why First off, did Baylor open as a favorite?
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Secondly, why is the line staying the same, removing
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toward Baylor even though everyone's taking BYU?
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This tells me we have a fade the trendy dog opportunity here to
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play Baylor. Baylor is only getting 25% of
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spread bets, but 60% of dollars. And here's the thing, you want
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to leave the three 3 1/2 and save the juice.
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I get it. But my system match that I love
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the unranked home favors ranked opponent.
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It's really it's it's profitable on the spread, but it's really,
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really good on the money line, especially the short favorites
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here. And typically when you're
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unranked home fav ranked opponent, it's going to be kind
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of a relatively short number. But here's the thing, unranked
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home favors ranked opponents on the money line is 52 and 24
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straight up 68 percent, 9% ROI since 2017.
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So I'm going to go Baylor on the money line.
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Shop around. I have a book here laying -155
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on Baylor on the money line. But again, this is one of my
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favorite systems. Everyone's playing BYU yet lines
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going to Baylor and their unranked home favors ranked
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opponent. The ultimate fishy system match.
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I'm loving Baylor here, guys. So I actually already put that
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in Baylor on the money line at -155.
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Next step for you. If you look at Oklahoma and
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Auburn, big match up here in SEC Obviously Oklahoma is new to the
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SEC, but this is another unranked home dog with a sharp
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line move. So Oklahoma comes into this one,
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three and one ranked 21st. Auburn two and two.
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Just lost to Arkansas. Again, I was on Arkansas, I bet
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against Auburn, now I'm going to play Auburn.
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You got to get used to that when you're betting on sports.
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You can love one team one week and based on following the
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market, maybe a fade them the next week.
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Anyway, if you look at the opener for this one, we open
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Oklahoma as a three-point Rd. favorite and the public is
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saying give me Oklahoma all day. Three in one, ranked 21st.
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Obviously Oklahoma let us down. Those of us who played them and
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were forced to watch that terrible performance against
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Tennessee. What's notable to me is that the
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public is just hammering Oklahoma. 93% of spread bets are
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going Sooners. However, Sooners open -3 they're
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down to 2 1/2. Some shops are even down to two.
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This is very notable. Why is the line falling toward
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Auburn when only 7% of bets are taking Auburn?
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Tells me we got some smart money here going the other way and
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playing Auburn. Auburn is your top contrarian
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play of the week, only getting 7% of bets.
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They would also be a conference dog system match.
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Auburn has the better offense. They scored 146 points this year
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versus Oklahoma, scoring 116. And Oklahoma, I watched that
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last game and Arnold, their quarterback was terrible.
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The guy they put in next was pretty decent, but he was a true
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freshman I believe or maybe a red shirt freshman.
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But also we have seen some under money come in here. 46 1/2 down
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to 45 1/2. But this is a play for me.
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Unranked verse ranked, sharp line move.
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This is almost like your Michigan play number.
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USC, Michigan. Oklahoma is now in the USC spot.
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Auburn is in the Michigan spot. And I also saw Hugh Freeze the
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coach, talk about how mad he was and maybe he gets his team
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motivated this week. So Long story short, if you can
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get a 2 1/2 on Auburn, I'd be looking at possibly playing that
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now because a lot of books are down to two.
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But I think, I think if you're willing to wait, you know, maybe
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this thing creeps back up to 2 1/2.
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I don't know if it gets the three, I know I'll be on Auburn.
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But again, it's now a question of what number can you get and
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whether you're willing to pull the trigger now or wait.
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Next one for you. This is a play that I put in
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immediately today when I broke down this game.
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I'm looking at Arkansas and Texas A&M.
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This is going to be a neutral site game, 3:30 on Saturday.
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It's at Jerry's World AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas
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Cowboys Now going into it, we have Arkansas three and one.
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Had a great win and cover for us last week and they're going to
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be opposing. Texas A&M was also three and
13:42
one, but Texas A&M is ranked 24th all.
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Arkansas is unranked. So what are we seeing across the
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board? Well, Texas A&M open as a 5
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point neutral site favorite and the public is on Texas A&M.
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Texas A&M, slight percentage of bets here, 54% of spread bets,
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but they open -5 1/2. The line is down to four.
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Some shops are even down to 3 1/2.
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And I saw pretty much the entire market get down to 3 1/2 today.
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It's now take back up to four, which is going to be a reason
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why I'm going to take the 4 right now because I'm thinking
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this thing may creep back down to 3 1/2.
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I don't it doesn't seem like it'll get back up to four and a
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half and might I could be wrong, but I'm thinking the four might
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be the best number to play Arkansas now.
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Aside from Arkansas only getting 46% of bets, they're getting 69%
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of dollars. Low bets, higher dollars bet
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split. They're unranked first ranked as
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they are an unranked first ranked dog, conference dog as
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well and a dog who can score. System actually put up 162 this
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year. Texas A&M has put up 124 also.
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We've seen this total tick up a little bit, 51 1/2 to 52 1/2.
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Pretty good bet split. 70% of bats.
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Don't love that it's public, but 92% of money is going over.
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So Publix on A&M, but lines falling to Arkansas.
15:00
Guys. I put in the plus 4 right now on
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Arkansas. It's available at 4.
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I'm seeing it at ESPN BET and Caesars, and I'm going to play
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the four now on the Razorbacks. Thinking this thing may get down
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to 2 1/2. So Bama 2 1/2 if you can find
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it. I put that in today.
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Arkansas +4 if you can get it. Baylor money line -155 the one
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that I'm waiting on is Auburn because I'm, I'm wondering if we
15:22
can maybe get a better price on that one.
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But those are some sharp early bets that you're welcome to play
15:28
or monitor or tail or fade or do whatever you like.
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But that is what I'm looking at across the board for today.
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Now, let's go over to Major League Baseball because
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obviously football is in the air.
15:39
Football is what we are most excited to sweat, you know.
15:42
But here's the thing, when you are a sports better and a
15:45
data-driven better, doesn't matter what the sport is, if you
15:47
can locate an edge, you want to maximize that edge.
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So here's what I found and I'm kicking myself for not playing
15:54
the sooner. But in terms of totals in Major
15:57
League Baseball, like last night, I was looking at the
16:00
board. Obviously I, I lost Diamondbacks
16:03
and I was pretty salty. But I look at all the scores and
16:05
I'm like six to three, six to two, six to one, four to one.
16:09
Like, OK, there's a lot of unders going on here.
16:11
Then I dial up my database and I look at unders in the month of
16:15
September, guess what? They're 151 and one 3054%, 3%
16:21
ROI. That's the second best under
16:23
month. Only April was better.
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Then I look at a little deeper. When the total is 8 or more, the
16:29
under is 111 and 8956 percent, 6% ROI.
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So it kind of makes sense. And this is something that, you
16:37
know, you can always kind of think about the first month of a
16:39
season and the last month of a season.
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They're different variables at play, but in a way, sometimes
16:45
you see certain things going on like either you know, favorites
16:47
do better or dogs are overs or unders.
16:50
When you start a season April, you close the season in
16:52
September, historically you have seen unders do pretty well,
16:56
whether that's early in the season, just, you know,
16:58
pitchings ahead of hitting, or maybe late in the season, you
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know these teams are giving up or don't care as much or they
17:04
just want to get the games over with.
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I don't know exactly the reasoning, but if you look at
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historically, that's what you've seen quite a bit.
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So now with that information in mind, you know what, let's play
17:15
a bunch of unders tonight. How about that?
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So I have 7 under bets for you. The goal is to go four and three
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and eke out a profit. So first one on the board that
17:24
I'm sweating. Let's go to Citizens Bank
17:27
Ballpark where we have the Cubs in the Philadelphia Phillies.
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Now Cubs, Phillies. One thing to know here, Phillies
17:34
clinched last night. They won the National League
17:37
East so they got nothing to play for.
17:38
Pitching matchup tonight. Cubs already been eliminated.
17:42
They are going with Justin steal the lefty five and five, 3 point
17:45
O3 ERA. He'll be opposed by Tanner Banks
17:48
who might be the opener two and two 3.78 ERA.
17:51
What are we seeing across the market here?
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Well, this total opened at around a 8 1/2 and we are seeing
17:59
the public play the over public is getting or currently you're
18:03
getting around 65% of bets going over here.
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However, despite the public going over, we've seen this
18:09
total fall. A lot of these eight and a halfs
18:11
are juiced up 8 1/2 under -115 or the 8 and a halfs are
18:16
actually all the way down to 8. So we've seen that liability on
18:19
the under and I'm thinking let's play the under here.
18:23
Now, the important thing here is you do have a lot of books at
18:26
8:00, but I do see an 8 1/2 out there.
18:28
ESPN bet is a is offering under 8 1/2 at -120.
18:32
So shop around. You can hopefully still find
18:34
that 8 1/2. But one thing to like in
18:37
particular with these starting pitchers, Steel has a 2 point O3
18:42
ERA in his last six starts and he's been really good on the
18:44
road, 2.77 ERA versus home 3.29. And you do have pretty good
18:49
weather here for 65°, but the wind is blowing left to right in
18:53
a little bit in at around 10 mph.
18:56
So try to find the hook on this one.
18:59
Obviously that's going to be important here.
19:00
If we get a five to three-game, hopefully it's lower than that.
19:03
We don't to sweat it as much. But with betting, you always
19:06
have to sweat it because it's it's never easy.
19:09
But hopefully you can still get available with the hook.
19:11
I'm thinking with the Phil's having clinched, maybe you rest
19:14
a lot of guys, maybe you're good.
19:15
Offensive players aren't in the lineup tonight.
19:17
But that's my first play. I'm going to go Phil's, Cubs
19:20
under 8 1/2, got to get the hook.
19:22
If you're only at 8, you might as well wait it out, see if you
19:25
can see that thing rise before game time.
19:26
But I'm going under 8 1/2 Cubs, Phil's.
19:29
Next one for you. Kansas City in Washington, give
19:33
me the under 7 1/2 with Kansas City in Washington.
19:36
This is pretty widely available. Wherever you look, you should be
19:40
able to find a 7 1/2. But what's notable is that
19:43
you're juiced across the board, painted as my buddy Patrick
19:45
Maher likes to call it. So 7 1/2 under.
19:49
And I'll try to find the best juice because I'm looking at 7
19:52
1/2 under -115 at Caesars and also bet MGM.
19:56
Others like FanDuel, ESPN better like under minus under 7 half
20:00
-120 but the pitching match up here we have Cole Reagan's going
20:04
for Kansas City. He's 11 and 93.24 ERA.
20:07
He'll be opposed by Mitchell Parker, who's seven and ten,
20:10
4.44 ERA. We open this total at 8.
20:15
We're down to 7 1/2. And again, all these 7 halfs are
20:17
juiced under. So looks like a lot of under
20:19
money coming in here. If you look at Cole Reagan's,
20:22
he's got a 1.42 ERA in September and three starts.
20:26
Mitchell Parker's been better at home, 2.81 ERA versus 6.61 on
20:31
the road. Kansas City.
20:33
Feel bad if you're a Kansas City fan.
20:35
I guess you're happy for a Chiefs fan.
20:37
Anyway, I think they've lost seven or eight straight and
20:40
they're barely hanging on for the wild card.
20:42
But this would match as a non conference under so interleague
20:45
under lack of familiarity benefiting the pitcher.
20:48
And we do have Kansas City 84 and 67 to the under 56%.
20:52
They're the 4th best under team in baseball, So this one's
20:55
pretty widely available, but I'm going to go.
20:57
KC Washington under 7 1/2. Keep on cruising.
21:02
Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles in the Bronx tonight, 7
21:07
O 5:00 PM Eastern Time. Big game here.
21:10
I believe Yankees have already clinched the AL East.
21:13
I could be wrong there. Baltimore is.
21:16
They've fallen off a little bit here recently, but still a big
21:18
series. Maybe, I don't know, preview of
21:21
the ALCS. But anyway, pitching match up
21:24
tonight, we have Dean Kramer, seven and ten, 4.19 ERA.
21:27
He'll be opposed by Schmidt, who is five and four, 2.37 ERA.
21:32
But what are we seeing across the market here?
21:34
Well, this game open with a total of 8 1/2 and it's pretty
21:38
much state 8 1/2. The public is going over 60%,
21:42
but all the 8 and a halfs are either 8 1/2 even or 8 1/2 under
21:46
-115 -, 120. So it's been nothing but juiced
21:49
up under in terms of this total. So shop around.
21:54
I got under 8 1/2. I was able to get at Caesars or
21:57
Bet MGM. They're both offering eight and
21:58
F under -110 so try to save the juice here, but the public's
22:02
over. Yet it stayed the same or juiced
22:04
under 1 system that I love contrary and unders for winning
22:07
teams is an old system that I learned a while ago.
22:11
But when 2 good teams face off, maybe some, you know, post
22:14
season, you know, possibilities here in the future.
22:17
Typically you get 2 good teams, you know, three to two games,
22:20
four to three games, something like that.
22:22
You'll get the pictures to Dean Kramer, 2.37 ERA and three
22:25
September starts, Schmidt 1.76 ERA and three September starts.
22:30
So both pitchers are throwing the ball very well.
22:32
And you do have the wind blowing in at Yankee Stadium 8 to 10
22:35
mph. So shop around.
22:37
Pretty widely available. I'm going Baltimore and New York
22:40
under 8 1/2. Next one for you.
22:43
Miami and Minnesota give me the Twins and the Marlins under 8.
22:49
This total opened, most shops were an opener of eight.
22:52
Was there an 8 1/2 out there? No, it was never 8 1/2, but it
22:54
was always 8 open even 8 - 110 both sides.
22:58
Now it's 8 under -115 - 120 pitching matchup.
23:03
We have Weathers going for Miami, three and six, 3.94 ERA.
23:07
He'll be opposed by Bailey over 12 and seven, 3.84 ERA.
23:11
What I like is that the public's going over 65% of bets, but the
23:15
total is juiced under, so kind of some reverse line movement
23:19
toward that under. In terms of the juice, only 35%
23:22
bets, but 70% money is on the under.
23:24
So good low bets, higher dollars, sharp contrarian split.
23:27
Bailey Ober has been good in September, 4 starts, 2.7 O ERA.
23:32
Weathers has been better on the road, 2.16 ERA versus 6.15 at
23:36
home Interleague under lack of familiarity benefiting the
23:40
pitchers. Hopefully then also Minnesota is
23:42
a big favorite in this one, like -240 -, 250.
23:47
So maybe they don't bat in the last Latin 9th inning.
23:51
Maybe they get up here and just kind of eke out a, you know, 6
23:54
nothing win, something like that.
23:56
But I'm going to play that. Miami, Minnesota under 8 Pretty
23:58
widely available. Next one for you.
24:01
Seattle and Houston big match up here in the AL West.
24:06
We have Logan Gilbert going for Seattle.
24:08
He's 8 and eleven 3.24 ERA. He'll be opposed by Fromber
24:12
Valdez, who's 14 and seven 2.85 ERA.
24:16
What do we see across the market here?
24:18
Well, this total open at 7 1/2. Now it's down to 7 and that's
24:22
notable because only 35% of bets are going under, yet the total
24:27
fell. So some good sharp RLM, only 35%
24:30
bets, but 51% of dollars are on the under.
24:33
So great bet split there. The sevens are pretty widely
24:36
available. Unfortunately, no more 7 1/2's
24:39
out there, but you can now get 7 under 7 at like a kind of not
24:44
bad. I think bet MGM is under 7 -, 1
24:46
O 5 ESPN bets down to 6 1/2. Wow.
24:50
But again, have multiple outs. Find the best price not just
24:53
with the juice but overall than the total.
24:55
But I'm going to go under 7 in this one hoping for a, you know,
25:00
four to two game, something like that.
25:01
Three nothing game 3 to one game.
25:03
But Houston is the second best under team in baseball, 87 and
25:07
64 to the under 58%. Another contrarian under for
25:11
winning team. So I'm going Seattle, Houston
25:13
under 7, two more for you. I'm going to hold my nose and go
25:17
under in Colorado, which typically is a bit scary, but I
25:21
think there's a good reason to hopefully go for the under here
25:25
with the Rockies. Rockies are at home against
25:26
Saint Louis. We have for Saint Louis, great
25:30
name here, Michael Mcgreevy, 2 and 0.9 O ERA.
25:34
It's been good. I think he's a rookie against
25:37
Ryan Feltner who's 3 and 10 but a 4.73 ERA.
25:41
Now where do we open the total here?
25:43
This total opened as high as 11 and the public is still thinking
25:48
we got an overplay here around 55% of bets are going over just
25:52
hey, it's Coors feel it's got to go over.
25:54
But even though it open at 11, it's down to 10 1/2.
25:57
So the line fell even though Publix on the over.
26:00
If you look at Coors Field in general, when the total is 10
26:05
1/2 or more at Coors Field, the under is 35 and 28 this year, 56
26:10
percent, 7% ROI felt there. By the way, 1.96 ERA and three
26:15
September starts. He's played pretty well, pitched
26:17
the ball, throwing the ball pretty well here.
26:19
So I'm going to hope for a lower scoring game.
26:21
I'll even take a six to four-game.
26:23
Let's lay in 10 or less. I'm going to go Saint Louis,
26:25
Colorado under 10 1/2. Last bet of the night.
26:29
Hopefully you'll be able to sweat this one.
26:31
It's on TBS. Who knows, maybe an NLCS
26:33
preview, the Padres and the Dodgers.
26:36
This one's interesting, obviously, because you got two
26:38
really good teams facing off. But if you look at the pitching
26:42
matchup, Michael King is going for San Diego.
26:44
He's 12 and 9, three-point O 4 ERA.
26:46
He'll be opposed by Landon Nack, who's three and four, 3.39 ERA.
26:50
What are we seeing here? Well, another sharp under.
26:54
We open this total at 8 1/2 and now it is 8 1/2 really juiced up
26:58
8 1/2 under -115 -, 120 and some shops are even down to 8.
27:04
So once again, triggering number is key.
27:06
Triggering number here is the hook under 8 1/2.
27:09
Now that should be pretty widely available.
27:11
You know, half of these are 8 some half or 8 1/2.
27:14
But if you shop around right now, the 8 1/2 is pretty much
27:19
everywhere. FanDuel Bet MGM, Caesars ESPN
27:22
bet all 8 1/2, but I'm seeing 8 1/2 under -115 at Bet MGM versus
27:27
-120 at ESPN bet. So try to get the best juice
27:30
price. But it's notable to me that
27:32
basically the public's 5050, yet it's fallen or is getting juiced
27:36
up under now. Another contrarian under for
27:39
winning team. Same matchup that we had or
27:41
system match for Baltimore and New York.
27:43
I also like the fact that if you'll get these pitchers
27:47
throwing the ball pretty well. Michael King in the month of
27:50
September 3 pit three starts, ERA of two on the road.
27:54
He's got a 2.8 O ERA versus 3.32 at home and Landon Knack has
27:58
been good at home to the area of three on the road. 3.77.
28:02
So here's my experiment, guys playing quite a few unders here.
28:06
Can we get four or more of this seven pack?
28:08
So for those of you playing at home, San Diego and the Dodgers
28:11
under 8 1/2. Saint Louis, Colorado under 10
28:14
1/2. Seattle, Houston under 7.
28:17
Miami, Minnesota under 8, Baltimore, New York under 8 1/2.
28:21
Kansas City, Washington under 7 1/2 and dear God, hope you can
28:24
get the hook under 8 1/2 Cubs and fills.
28:27
So I got an experiment. I got a thought process.
28:30
Let's let's hope it comes to fruition tonight.
28:33
Playing a lot of unders if you're like me and live in New
28:35
England, even though I don't really have a Boston accent
28:38
because I was born in Western Mass.
28:39
Anyway, that about does it for episode 126 of the All systems
28:43
Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
28:46
This is the part of the pod where I wrap up with a few
28:48
things, couple comments, suggestions, but first a
28:51
request. Could you please give this
28:53
podcast a five star review? If you're listening on Spotify
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or iTunes, click those five stars.
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I'd really appreciate it to help us to continue to grow the pod,
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rise up the rankings and the charts.
29:03
If you want to recommend the pod to a friend, I'd appreciate
29:06
that. If there's an option to leave a
29:08
nice comment, win, lose or draw, I like the breakdowns.
29:11
Something simple than like that. But also, if there's an option
29:15
to follow the pod, click that follow button.
29:17
That way you'll get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
29:19
Secondly, if you enjoy these breakdowns and you want to learn
29:22
more about data-driven sharp contrarian betting, guess what?
29:25
I wrote a book about data-driven sharp contrarian betting.
29:28
All you got to do is go to Amazon.com and type in the
29:30
Everything Guide to Sports betting.
29:32
Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
29:35
It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
29:37
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
29:39
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
29:42
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
29:45
a bankroll management plan. It's all included in the
29:47
Everything Guide to sports betting.
29:49
So pick one up, bring that book to the book.
29:52
The sports book that is. I'll sign it for you.
29:54
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
29:57
Lastly, have you taken advantage and signed up for both Rhythm
30:00
and Juice Reel to my favorite sports betting apps on the
30:03
market. Rhythm fantastic for their AI
30:05
driven models and predictions for game bets as well as player
30:09
props. And of course, Juice Reel great
30:11
if you want to follow the AI. Robo Jackson recommended best
30:14
bets each day. There's two of them.
30:16
They come out at noon every single day.
30:18
You can also sync up your sports books, get a running report card
30:21
of your action as well as arbitrage plays, sharp mush
30:24
opportunities, as well as actual money breakdowns of where the
30:29
actions flowing for each game. And that's based upon people who
30:31
have a account at Juice Reel and have synced up their sports
30:35
books. But I want you guys to sign up
30:36
in a particular way. Just click that bio description,
30:40
the links that are located in the bio description of each
30:42
podcast. It'll say something like Josh
30:45
dishes out, you know, A7 pack MLB sweats in a early sharp
30:48
report for college football. Scroll down.
30:51
There's links for Juice Real and Rhythm.
30:52
Take advantage of those and hopefully you can make some
30:55
sharper winning bets. Juice Real and Rhythm help me.
30:58
I think they're going to help you.
31:00
Lastly, always leave you guys with this, whether I see you at
31:03
the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
31:05
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in
31:08
Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
31:11
Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
31:13
Massachusetts, out in the desert where the true grinders get
31:16
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the
31:19
lowest use possible is found, the South Point, sweating, sharp
31:21
contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
31:24
When you catch a big ticket, wherever it may be, you're going
31:26
to walk up to me. Show me a nice commander's
31:28
ticket last night. That was a nice one.
31:30
But the Jags RIP that thing up, recycle it, don't throw it away.
31:34
But what a pathetic performance. And again, throwing salt on the
31:37
moon as we beat the closing line, they still didn't show up.
31:40
So sometimes that'll happen, but guess what, first one's on me,
31:43
next one's on you. We're going to post about the
31:45
book Sweatsharp contrarian plays all night long.
31:48
So wish the best of luck everyone.
31:49
Enjoy your Tuesday. We had a couple days until
31:52
football returns for Thursday night, but we're going to keep
31:55
grinding every single day. That's what we do.
31:58
So as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
32:01
public, place yourself on the side of the house.
32:03
Always be with the smart money, never against it will smart
32:06
money when every time it won't anything can happen.
32:09
Jags were sharp as attack. Jags never showed up.
32:12
Here's the thing though, if we make that bet 1000 times in a
32:15
row, we're going to come out profitable in the long run.
32:17
So stick with it guys again against the public with the
32:20
house, with the pros flat bet, avoid parlays.
32:23
Get that COV. If we can do that, we're going
32:25
to be OK long term. So have a great Tuesday everyone
32:29
be back at it tomorrow for episode 127 of the all systems
32:33
go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
32:36
Good luck everybody, have a great night.