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The Favorites - AFC Team Betting Updates · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: called the Tennessee Redline one eight nine or visit one
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  Speaker 1: eight gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: the podcast from the Value and Podcast Network. I am
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Chad Mellman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joined
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: as always by my bff, my companion, my compadre professional
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. Hey Chad, talking more football, another great day. Yeah,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: it's fun, right, Like it feels so different to talk
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: about football than everything else. Yeah, it's just the most fun.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, we we we do love the other sports,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: I think that, but football right now, it's it's so
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: far above King and in this everything. Like, do you
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: see how they're doing their release now of their schedule.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: They're doing a I believe Spanish someone gets to do
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: the ninth, and then NBC gets to do with the tenth,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: and then whoever CBS has do the eleventh, and then
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: they do the whole schedule at twelve. They're really taking
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: a whole week in May to release their schedule. It's
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: like they've they've really become all about me, and I
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: love it because I'm all about it. They're so good
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: at milking every single second of the drama. They know
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: how to do it. Speaking to Drama. On Tuesday, we
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: ran through the NFC division by division futures that we
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: liked based on the draft. Today, we're gonna do the
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: A f C as we did last week or on Tuesday.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: We're gonna start with the Eastern Division in this conference.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: That would be the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills heavy
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: heavy favorites at minus one. The Paths are next at
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: plus four. D side bet Week twelve is when we
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: start hearing the calls for Bailey's appy, likely from Colin
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Wilson Action Network college football analysts to be the news
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: starting quarterback for the Patriots Dolphins at plus four hundred.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: The Jets, who had the greatest draft in NFL history.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: If you ask anybody in New York plus two thousand.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So look, Matt Mitchell, I want to bring you in
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: for a second. The Bills are a minus one eight.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: The Bills are plus six fifty to win the Super Bowl.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: They have the shortest odds of anybody in the NFL
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. Like people have become so
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: all in on the Bills if you ask anybody, Josh
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Allen is rated as the best quarterback in the NFL
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: are we are we peaked Bills right now? Does it
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: make you nervous? How are you feeling about all this?
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Does it make me nervous? Yet it makes you want
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: to puke my guts out? Chat The Buffalo Bills, who
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: have never won a Super Bowl and haven't made a
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl since the three season, are ridiculous favorites to
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. Like you said, under seven to one.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: I don't care for that at all, and my bullsh
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: on the yeah, I think just as good as they
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: were last year. So you know, the whole thing comes
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: down to can they win a really hard playoff game
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: against a team that will likely be an even matchup?
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: And I don't know. I hope so. But they seem
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: to have been compiling a go for broke roster and
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: that's really exciting. We lost Brian Table to the Giants,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: had plenty of anger with him over the years about
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: the way he calls a game. I don't think that's
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: necessarily a downgrade. But I'm as anxious about this season
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: as I've ever been because I'm crushed by the weight
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: of expectation, which I've had the luxury of not having
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: until recently. For twenty years, so I'm kind of dreading
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: the season and excited about it just the same. I
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: wish we could just skipped January. The Bills drafted in
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: the first round, Um, a cornerback from Florida. Er alarm,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: you know they need a corner right like, you don't
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: know if true Davy is white, how are we going
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: to return and if there are any holes in that defense?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: It wasn't the defensive secondary. James Cook running back Georgia
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: one of the top picks in the second round, or
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: at least second round pick, and then they did more
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: defense in the in the third round with the wind
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: bagger from Baylor. I don't know, Simon feels like they
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: just sort of filled the holes they need to fill
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: to get more depth. But it's really gonna come down
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: to Josh Allen. Between the Kelsey brothers, the wob brothers,
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: the Bossa brothers, I'm all about taking siblings. So the
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: fact that they took Cook, I mean, we've seen what
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: his brother did from Minnesota that if he pops for
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: them with the Bills, I mean again, he's the second
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: round running back. That's that's all that equity. I love
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: that moved by them and the cornerback in the first round.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: That's that's the play for the Bills. They literally gave
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: up a first down to kick a field goal with
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: seven seconds and seven seconds some um my home was
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: able to put his team in position to kick a
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: field goal. I had no doubt they're gonna try to
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: go cornerback because that's there is no weakness on offense.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: It's like we talked about it last year. You're asking
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: me what quarterback I would take everyone else, It's Josh Allen,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: just because the simple act this is every quarterback is
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: a different prime. This is Josh Allen's prime. He's bigger
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: than everyone, he's stronger than everyone, he's faster than everyone.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: He can throw with incredible accuracy. He's literally what camp.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: We all thought Cam Newton was going to be this
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: really big, strong, incredible arm. We saw quickly Cam broke down.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: So for Josh Allen, these are the big years right now.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: That's why it hurts so bad for Bills fans. Last
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: year I felt like they wasted a year because that
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: that was the best team in football. Last year, no
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: doubt the Bills was the best team in football. So um,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: I love them obviously in this division, the Patriots just
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: quickly touch on them. I don't really love what they've
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: done this offseason. I think they wait, wait, wait, do
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: you think that their first round draft pick was wait
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: for it, strange? You're just waiting for that co strange
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: and offensive guard from Chattanooga who was ringing third at
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: his position, graded out at a seventy seven and in
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: an overall rank of player at seventies seven. The best
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: reaction might have been what what Sean McVeigh had when
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: he was doing a press conference when he heard He's like,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: I can't believe we watched film on him, we think
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: he'd be available one oh four. Yeah, no, And again
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I hate shooting on Belichick, but he does these little
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: questionable picks like this, and sure, back in the day
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: these things could work, but they haven't in the last
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know, five, six, seven years. So yeah, I don't.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: I don't love what the Patriots have done this offseason.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: They spent all that money last year, They've been very
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: quiet this year. Um, and Bill just hasn't drafted well,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: you just simply has not through the years. So I'm
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: I'm down on them, right. I look at Miami is
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: probably the best value in this division. They got the
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: new coach who, Yeah, I might think he sounds like
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: an idi it and that he smokes way too much weed,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: but apparently he's just a really chill, laid back dude,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and Miami is excited about him. They love this move
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: where Tyreek Hill, that's a big deal. Like this guy's
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: gonna open up this offense for Wattle And you know
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: if if to Uh he's getting the Hurts treatment, if
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: two is gonna be there, guy, this is kind of it, Like,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know how true that whole thing is about
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady and him becoming a partial owner or doing
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: whatever it was with Miami. Guess what Tom Brady redid
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: his deal. He's he's out of Tampa for this year.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: So they honestly don't think they really care about this
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: year in Miami, Like they're they'll be so happy if
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Toa can be good and taking the playoffs. But the
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: way I look at it, if that stuff about Brady
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: getting partial ownership of Miami is true, He's going to
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Miami next year. So I don't know. They're they're a
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: weird team to me this year. Um, it just makes
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: me again, It makes me like to builds you more
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: and the Jets. I'll be quick on them. I I'm
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: happy for you Jets fans. Enjoy that night. That was great.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Um It's that's where the draft so stupid. It's like
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: the Raiders they give up Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: They had three first round picks. I guess with all
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: three first round picks they just had, did none of
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: them signed a fifth year option. They literally just had
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: four years of the guys and they're letting them go.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: So three first round picks, none of them signed for
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: that fifth year option. If that happens with these Jets fans,
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: I honestly I got help these guys. But I think
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: it's a hit. No matter what on sauce um top
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: four pick on him. He's worth of these unbelievable cornerback.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: We'll see about the wire serials, see about the end.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: But yeah, the Jets are exciting, but one I still
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: wouldn't touch him. I just think they're light years away
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: from the Bills and even the Patriots in Miami. Um, yeah,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Zach Wilson could take year the year to leap. I
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: could be dead wrong, but I just look at the
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: see him as being another year or two away just
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: because I just don't think they have enough pieces there yet.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: You're going too fast. Can we go back to the
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Dolphins for a second, because obviously in this division in
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: terms of player movement, doing what they did in the
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: off season, Yeah, the most interesting team. But it is
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: exactly what we talked about on Tuesday with A J.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Brown going to the Eagles getting Jalen Hurts some weapons
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: now too, it has the weapons and he's Mike McDaniels, Like,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: again I make fun of the guy. He's are He
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: is supposed to a mastermind on offensive stuff as a
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: head coach, and that's a big deal. Um, this is
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: a really interesting team. They did not have a lot
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: of traft picks, so they only had like four picks.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: So what you see is what you get on this
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: team right now. Like, if you like what they're doing
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: on defense, that's what it's gonna be. If you think
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be better on offense because of the offensive
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: weapons they now have, then a plus four hundred. This
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: might be the team other than the Bills, although the
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: truth is you probably want to take Bills in the
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: box and some kind of you know, big parlay it's
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: just we just don't again. We love, we love the
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: upside of tow it, we just neither chat or I
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: trust to h and all the pros I talked to,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: they like them. They like the value on Miami too,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: because again, Mike Downs is an exciting head coach and
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: they just got Tyreek Hill. Like, that's a really exciting
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: offense with arguably the best secondary in all football and defense.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: So I love the value of Miami. But it's the
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: same thing as the Eagles and Hurts. It's like, we
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: don't know about this quarterback, and I don't know how
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: much money I want to get down on this to
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: a kid where I've seem to have little flash moments,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: I've also had some of the most dudd dumb boat
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: headed plays ever last year. So it's really already know
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: it to U. At this time next year, do you
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: think that the team with the second best value in
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: the a f C East let's project based on current
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: rosters and future talent and develop a minute outside the Bills, Patriots, Dolphins, Jets.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: At this time next year, who has the second shortest odds? Again,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: if Tom Brady goes to the Dolphins, I think it
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: would be the Bills would be minus division and Tom
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Brady baby plus one thirty plus one forty. Like again,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, he would hate to admit it. That would
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: that would literally keep him up on it. That would
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: give Bills fans PTSD if this man was just back
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: in their division on a different team. I came to
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: imagine how awf of that would be. So yeah, sitting
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: here as teams are right now, and to A does
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: not work out, it's gotta be. It's gotta be, uh,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: the Patriots being the next team next year. But as
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: you say here right now, I just I just all
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: this stuff I hear about this time Brady stuff. It
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: sounds like that was a done deal, him going to Miami,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Sean Payton going there. But like Floria, I mean Flora's
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry when he came out that suit against Miami.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: I think it kind of left a little bit of
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: a staying there so Tom Brady to give involved it.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: So again, it's I know we should be talked about,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: but three season, it's just these rumors. There's a lot
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of smoke, and like Chad always says, if
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: there's smoke, there's also it's hard to talk about three
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: season when the Bills are so much better. Right, It's
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: a little bit like talking about the NFC South, it
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: comes down to the quarterback. It's like, are they that
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: much better than Miami? I don't know, it comes down
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: to the quarterback because it's like we've seen it time
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: and time again these teams. It's just different comes to
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: the playoff time. If you don't have a quarterback, if
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: you have a Tannehill, he's probably not gonna live up
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: to the moment where you've got you have a guy
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: like you know, you saw a Lactor. It's like there's
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: there's just certain quarterbacks that stepped up in the playoffs.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: And dude, Josh Allen is so far and away better
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: than Mac Jones than to then Zack Wilson, in the
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: same way that Tom Brady d is so far and
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: away better than Jamis or Marcus Mariotta or Sam Donald
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: like and order that Aaron Rodgers is so much better
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: than Kirk Cussin's or Justin Fields or Jared Goff. Like
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: that's where you're gonna see the biggest discrepancies, like in
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: the you know, it's really interesting. Let's go to the NFC,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: the a f C North for a second. We talked
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday about, um, how much we love the Ravens draft,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: we being I and then you hated it and felt
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: like they get credit and hat. I thought they had
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: a good draft. But it's just no matter what they
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: do every year, everyone's like, oh my god, the Ravens
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: and Matt Mitchell's like they drafted a center and everyone
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: thinks their geniuses. Whereas that anyone else does it. It's
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: like whatever, you drafted a center. Um, the Bengals like
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: are plus two twenty on FanDuel. The Ravens are plus
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: two hundred right now on FanDuel. So those odds have flipped, yep,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: And we talked about that's why we were firing on
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: the Ravens. I still think this division, in my opinion,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: goes Ravens one, Bengals too, Browns, and and then the
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Steelers like who who the hell is putting money on
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: the Browns like that? I just again, I love the
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: upside of the team, but it's I don't know, man,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: this whole Watson Baker thing, like is this guy gonna
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: gets to spend it for a year. We just saw
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: an MLB pitcher. I don't want to talk about the
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: whole situation. Basically, a guy got to spend it for
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: two years for something he didn't get charged for NFL. There,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: they can't be just, you know, do nothing about this
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: whole Watson situation. So I don't get the Browns being
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: the favorite this division right now. I obviously I like
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: the Browns that they have a great team. Watson. We
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: all know he's we talked about he's probably top five
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: quarterback when he's full full going playing like we know
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: he can play. So I don't know best best value.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna still going with the Ravens just because I
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: like I like teams coming back from injury ridden seasons.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: I love that Lamar is still kind of being down
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: a little bit, so it's another proved me a year
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: for Littmar and we just talked about there there. I
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: don't know, they're They're just one of these teams every year.
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: They're always kind of been it. Like I might make
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: fun of them because they get knocked down in the
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: first round, usually in the playoffs, but usually they get
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: there by one of their divisions. So they're they're they're
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: a good value. They're not as good as it was.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: That's why I wouldn't say take the Ravens. I honestly
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: think you kind of missed the boat in the value
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: in this division at this point. So so to me,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: I'd wait because again I'm not gonna telling with Dick
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh here. I just I can't do it. As much
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: as we like Mitch, I don't know if it's gonna
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: be Mitch or Kenny starting for the Pittsburgh Steelers. So
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: I'll just avoid it. I'll hold my Ravens ticket. Maybe
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: I'll bet it closer to the season. I mean a
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: very uh Baltimore frame of mind. Uh. The creators of
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: the Wire did have a new show on HBO called
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: We Own This City and it's all about policing in Baltimore. UM,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: and of course I started watching it and during COVID
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: when I had covid, UM, and it's great. The accents
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: are great. It's not that, you know, Baltimore has got
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a Philly accent, because it's all
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: sort of that Della where you know, kind of feeling.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: But it's just it's so good. I don't know what
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about. I'm just thinking about it. Every time
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: you say Baltimore. That's what I'm thinking about, Um, can
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: you Pickett thing? The Mike tomlnd thing. Uh, not a
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: team that you're gonna bet on at this point. They're
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: not exercising the option on Devin Bush. We don't know
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: how their defense uh is gonna do. We don't know
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: a lot about that offense right now. It's hard to
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: take a flyer on the Steelers at this point. Yeah,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: the defense is going to be incredible, but yeah, we
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: just don't know we're getting the QB position. So if
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: you're just looking for a blind value bet I don't
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: hate it on pittsburgha again, there they had the best
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: defense in this division. But the Bengals are so good,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Like that's just a very complete team. And they've been
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: smart this whole offseason, adding to their offensive line, trying
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: to address that quarterback position. But we just the odds
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: that I'm not having a super Bowl hangover is just insane.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: Like there, they fit every criteria a team that's gonna
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: have a down year. They want a division, which means
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: they have a harder schedule. They're all under the age
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: of seven, like their superstars. Historically, the following year they
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: all have left down years because it's just different. It's
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: a lot harder when you've reached that mountaintop to follow
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: up the thought in here. That's just I'm not a
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: Bengals hater. I think they're a great team, and we
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: mean Chad both really like Joe Burrow. It's just the
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: rhythm of the NFL. That's what a lot of this
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: future stuff spending on. Historically, after making two Super Bowl
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: and losing, that team does not do well the following season,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: especially ones that win their division. The freaking Bengals made
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: it to the Super Bowl and they were within minutes
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: of winning it and probably should have won it. Yeah,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: then the man in the four Knighters, like the Four
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: Nighters again, had the ball with a ten minute lead
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: against that Rams team. They had the ball with the
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: ten point lead with ten mends to go on the
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter. The Rams won that game. Rams were down
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: I believe, uh it might have been like twelve. It
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: was a weird number because they had missed that true
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: point wherever it was, and it was like midway through
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: the third quarter. Remember that the Bengals just had that
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: big touchdown. The three and out happened for the Rams.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: The Bengals got the ball back and then Joe Burrow
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: had that whole thing with his knee and it was
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: just never the same. So it really is that's we
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: talked all the time. That's how crazy is this football game.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: It's like one or two players aside the entire game.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: It's stunning. It's totally stunning. Uh a f C South
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis Courts minus one oh five Tennessee Titans plus Jaguas
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: plus seven hundred Texans. Obviously the big news here, Matt Ryan.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: Now the Colts quarterback A J. Brown not on the Titans.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: Malik Willis drafted by the Titans, will not get mentored
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: by Bryan Tannehill. Also Malik Willis and all the other
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks Desmond Ritter fading dropping deep, deep, deep into the draft.
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: That was a great narrative the night of the draft. Uh.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Not just because hey, none were taken in the top ten,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: as I said, but it just seemed like every single
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: GM put their thinking cap on and said, I'm not
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: over reaching just because they're playing quarterback. Yeah, and again
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: shout the Matt Freeman who gave us that amazing stat
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: about if no quarterback goes in the top five historically
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: in NFL's history, if no quick goes top five. The
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: under of two and a half quarterback is hit every time.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: So something to keep in mind the future. If people
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: are mocking quarterbacks outside top five, it's it's pretty good
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: bet to beout the under quarterbacks. That's that's something I
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: remember because that that hurt me. Uh, that definitely hurt me.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: And we think we talked about next year. It's just
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: a really good quarterback class. I do think that's the
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: biggest difference. I saw some books opened at six and
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: a half over under first round quarterbacks. Honestly, the O
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: theyre got pounded and it dropped all way down to
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: five and a half and they just took up. They
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: just took the number down. But you know, it's like
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: you just said, teams called the bluffs, they're just like,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: go ahead and take this guy. Like we're finally either
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: wait next year, we think there's enough good quarterbacks in
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: the phrasing group. Like again, go look at the Seahawks
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: qb room and go look at the Atlanta Falcons qb
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: room and tell me these teams aren't tanking like they're
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: tanking it. There is no excuse for them not to
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: go out there get Jimmy Jr. Get get Baker, but
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: clearly they made a stance where they don't want to
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: do it. Though. Look at this division, Chaid, I like
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville coming into it, and I just thought they had
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: the most room to grow. I think they've gone now
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: from fourteen to one or twelve the one. Now they're
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: down to seven o one for this division. So the
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: values going there now, the value shifted to the Texans.
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: It's like it's gross. Go back and watch the film
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: on Davis Mills. Go back and Davis Mills comes out
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: this year he's the number one player taken overall. You
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: really think? So kidding me? Are you kidding me? I
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: would say if they could see what he did last
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: year the NFL, yes, he would easily be the number
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: one pick overall, just because his upside again on tape,
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: if you put it on there, this kid makes really
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: really high level throws when he had guys all around
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: his legs. So I just look at the Texans as
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: It's another thing where it's like, should they be sixteen
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: to one? Should they be fifteen to one for this division? Yeah,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: that's a fair number. They're sitting at one for this division.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: It's like people are kind of figure out what we're
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: doing here. We're betting teams that aren't talked about. They're
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: considered a joke, Like that's what the Texans kind of
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: are considered right now. So am I telling you go
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: bet a lot of money on Texas and win this division? No?
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: But like, have you had a couple of ten bucks,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: you know, twenty bucks laying around? You just want to
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: throw it on a good long shot they win a division.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: I don't want hate that that Texas. They they were
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: just a very solid team all throughout. We saw last year,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Man did I sweat that under? A better them? Like
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: they literally got the four wins and I was sweating
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: that one. So they're just one of these teams. I
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna better than people think. I do see
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: Tennessee taking a step back and the Colts with Matt Ryan.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: I do like the move. I do think Matt Ryan
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: is an upgrade over Carson Wentz, but it's not that
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: much bigger of an upgrade. Like if you go back
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: and look at Wentz his numbers last year, they actually
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: weren't that terrible. He just again choked in these big moments.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: So Matt Ryan's not known for Matt Ryan is not
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: known for doing that. That's you know, so right, right,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: So it is, it is weird. We're all people like,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: oh my god, Matt Ryan's the Colts, like that's that's
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: a game changer and they might be a top four,
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: top three team in the a f C. And it's
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: I still don't really look at them in that way.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: With Matt Ryan. It doesn't really move the needle for him.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: So if I'm just going to peer value based, either
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: be on the Jags or Houston at this point, and
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: you know where I stand, I've already bet the Jags.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: I'll probably hop off this call and throw a little
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: through a little bit on the Texas just because that's
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: crazy they're this high. But number I just like, looking
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: at my spreadsheet right now, I had them at fifteen
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: o one. So the fact that they're dropped that far
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: at this point, it just shows that people just aren't
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: buying it. They're just looking at that them as a
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: very bland, boring team that's gonna tank for a quarterback.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: A little couple of three shekeles, that's just what you're
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: gonna do. Yeah, not not even one unit, like literally
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: maybe half of you know, maybe less for a little unit,
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: just a little tiny unit. You don't have anything to
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: say about the Titans. Uh. We don't think Ryan Tannehill
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: is a championship level quarterback. We don't think that they
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: have improved themselves on the edge necessarily with their uh
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: drafting of a receiver. They've maybe maintained status quo um.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: But this was a team that think we all thought
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: was overrated as the number one seed in the a
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: f C last year. They proved that out plenty of
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: opportunities to advance last year. Royn Tonnele I thought was
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: very thoughtful this this week. He talked about being in
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: therapy thinking about the loss, having to get over the
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: loss in the playoffs this year. That was clearly because
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: of him. I thought it was equally powerful when he said,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: I'm not here to be a role model for Malik Willis.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: What's your take on that? What's your take on players
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: who who outwardly say it's not my job to train
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: this guy. I feel like he said everything wrong, like
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: I'm all for mental health and going to therapy and
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: like that, but I just would not be putting out
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: there in that type of scenario because I honestly think
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: that's why that team drafted a quarterback. They're just like,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: do you get over it? Like we all lose games,
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: like I've I can't tell any times I've blown it
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: or whatever in life like that. That was just scary
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: to me, the fact that he's like being hurt that
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: much about that loss. Where I do put on Daniel
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: he did choke that game away, but it's like, I
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, It's that's football. I just can't. I
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: can't believe he had He's in that kind of space
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: where he said he's had sleepless nights and like he's
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: had to really work through a lot of issues where
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: that I don't like when quarterbacks say they're not gonna
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: help the next guy, but I totally get it, like
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: you kind of have to be that way. I guess
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: in that job where it's like his mentality right now
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: is yeah, I'm not gonna help this guy. But come
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: first practice when him and they're both standing there doing
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: that little bullshit throwing to each other or whatever, and
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be shooting the ship, Daniel is gonna like
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: this kid. Like I've seen a bunch of interviews the
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: league is very likable, so Danniehill might say that right now,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: he hasn't met the kid, he doesn't know the kid.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: I just think he's he's piste off. They'd be like,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: you're hiring someone to come do the show and be like, Hey,
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: I want to bring this third guy in if is
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: that cool with you? And I'd be like, yeah, Chad,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: that's great. But in the the back might be like, fuck you, Chad.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: You already bringing in my replacement. So I get where
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: he's coming from. But like, that's human nature. I just
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't have said the therapy thing out loud, even
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: though people like chat are like, yeah, that's great, supportive.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: I'm a dog. I played like anyone that played sports.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Like if I would talk so much ship to this
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: guy in the football field, if I had heard about
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: this stuff horrible things, because that's an edge, that's a
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: weakness now that I know. So I don't like it,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: but I'm more siding with him on the sense that
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: he just shook right now, like he's just saying things
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: that are shook. Person would say, so, I I got
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: no money on Tannehill, and I'll have every be grateful
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: for veryble for winning to Coach of the Year last year.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: But I'm so off Tennessee and they just perfect storm
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: last year, right, getting that one seed. They ain't getting
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: that one seed this year. Wait. Now you know why
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Darren Ravel hates you so much? Why because you were
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: the third guy in on the show. And by the
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: next year we kicked Ravel out, called Matt Mitchell. I'm like,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Scooch can't do it. What do you think We just
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: go with Simon and Darren And Matt Mitchell was like, Darren,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: you don't need Darren. Just he said drop the Darren
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: said drop Darren. Uh tough businesses media thing. Huh. Seriously,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: one day you're in, the next day you're out. Next
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: day you're buying your own card signed by you, dude,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: no joke. I remember I was at a Super Bowl
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: party many many, many years ago and there was a
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: at the time high profile media personality who we noticed
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: had someone following him the whole time, just sort of
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: pointing him, pointing at him and saying, Hey, that's so
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: and so, Hey, that's so and so. God yeah, and
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: me and another guy who was a writer at the
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: magazine were like, is this really happening? Like, what is
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: going on here? What a next level of narcissists now right,
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: next level. That guy didn't last very long. The playoffs
• 28:48
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• 28:51
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• 30:23
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• 30:29
  Speaker 1: go to the a f C West because that is
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: the glamour division in the NFL right now. Patrick Mahomes
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: in the Kansas City Chiefs plus one fifty five, the Chargers,
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Justin Herbert plus to forty, Russell Wilson and the Broncos
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: plus two sixty. Derek Carr of the one hundred and
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: forty million dollar contract in Josh McDaniels plus seven hundred.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I guess the value is on the Raiders there, Yeah,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: it's gotta be. I mean, we're already invest in the Charterers,
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: and I think we talked to the show that they
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: might haven three one or threeft. That was where the
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: value was because we joked about it, like Chiefs, They're
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: always gonna be the cream of the crop. But then
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: the Russell Wilson moved to the Denver. That's what got
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: us good value on the Chargers. You're just talking about this.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: No joke at the NFL said you have to pay
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: this year to watch this division. I feel like every
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: fan would pay because this is literally the best, albably
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: the best division in football ever. And we can go
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: through each team like the Chiefs. Let's go through each
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: team and let's buy the way. Let's do it with
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: patients and care. Let's talk about the Chiefs. I don't know.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: There's nothing I can do about the way I do
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: it like no patients, no care. I'm just gonna fly
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: through it. Chiefs, don't do it. Don't tie your money
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: up in this team this early. Um, it's just just
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: a waste. We we expect him to finally have maybe
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: a down year, but it's like, am I gonna put
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: my money on it. A lot of people were I mean,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: people could not wait to barrier them last year. Remember that,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: how people are just so off of them. I had
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: other prose texting me, do great calling the Chargers for
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: you to one to win the Super Bowl. Great, great,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: bet on the Charges and win that division. We saw
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: what happened the second half of the season that the
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: young team, the Charges, with the young head coach who's
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: overthinking it, going for it on every fourth down, fell apart,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: and Steady Eddie and you Reid here he came again
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: with Patrick Mahomes and they won that division. And you know,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: it's just I want to doubt them, and I just
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: want to tell people to stay away from him. But
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: it just seems like every year the Chiefs are gonna
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: be in it. So to me, if I'm going off
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: team I like the most of this division, it wouldn't
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: be the Chiefs. I just like you said, Yeah, there's
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: no value there right now. Chargers, however, plus two forty
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: there was value at plus three hundred. They traded for
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: Khalil mack Irwin. James will be healthy. Justin Herbert is
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: still justin Herbert. Hopefully they have learned a little bit
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: about the value of going for it on fourth down
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: and when not to go for it on fourth down,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: how to gain points because this team is a you know,
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: we've been the Chargers are soccer of the nineteen eighties.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: They are the future team every single year. Could this
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: be the year they finally become the team of the future. Yeah,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: I mean again, we're people know we love the Chargers.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: Like that was one of my better hits I've ever had.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: In one was talking about him as Rookie of the Year.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: And you know, I don't know what Herbert is doing
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: this offseason. I can get into you it's all football related.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: This kid just seems like the ultimate football nerd. He's
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: a quiet dude, but apparently he is just obsessed with football. So,
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: you know, it's hard not to love this Chargers team.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: They've They've done great this offseason. I think they took
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: an offensive line in the first round. Love to see it.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: Just keep keep adding to that old line and making
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: it better for him. Um, it's just the value is gone.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: Like me and you talk all the time, it's it's
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: a value based business. So yeah, I might like them
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: the most to win this division. I think they're the
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: best bet. Sure, if you want to take it, take it.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: But I just feel bad saying to this is my
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: you have to take the best value in this beet,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: because we gave it out a month ago and it
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: was at plus three hundred plus three fifty different books.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: And now you're you're you're missing out almost you know,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: plus a hundred plus one fifty. That's a lot of
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: value to miss out on. The Charter took Zion Johnson,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: offensive guard from Boston College in the first round. Will
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: be a total Day one starter. This is an offensive
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: line that with their draft last year, this should be
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: a great offensive line for the next five years. Like
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: they are so set at every single position. This is
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: This is a team just poised for greatness. And in
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: any other division they are minus three hundred favorites to
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: win their division. Yeah again, the best division ever in football. Instead,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: there a plus two forty behind the Kansas City Chiefs.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: And before just barely the new Russell Wilson left Denver Broncos.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm, I'm Chad knows I've planned my flag in.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: Russell Wilson is one of the most overrated quarterbacks to
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: ever play football. Uh, and nothing's changed, not not doing
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: anything with Denver not touching it. It's to me, it's
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: just gonna be a team at A million excuses is
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: gonna be made for them because all these things went
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: wrong for them the upcoming season. But they are what
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: they are. I just I just don't see it happened
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: with this team. I love their defense, I really do,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: But with Russell Wilson, I just can't see it working
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: out for them. Uh, his prime was about two and
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: a half three years ago, and those days of him
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: doing that McNabb Tony Romo scrambled around, throw off his
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: back foot sixty yards downfield, right into a guy and
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: stride into the end zone. It's just it's just a
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: few and far in between. It's kind of, in my opinion,
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: it's kind of gone. So people are looking like you
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: got a huge upgrade offensively in Denver. Go go look
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: at the splits on Denver's offensive line. They're horrible. Did
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: they improve their offensive line this year? No, they did not, really,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: So I'm off of it. I'm just not on this
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: Denver team. I don't know if you feel different about it.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: ChIL Now, they drafted one offensive lineon. By the way,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: they had probably close to ten. I think ten picks
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: mostly late round picks, one offensive lineman, largely choosing on
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: the defensive side of the ball. I'm I'm with you.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: I think there's too much I love I'm the opposite
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: of you and that I love Russell Wilson. But I'm
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: with you and that there's too much value being placed
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: on what he can do for this team based on
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: the miraculous things he's done for the Seahawks over the years.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Only this this Denver team. Um, the coaching is still
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: obviously going to be brand new. You don't know what
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: you're getting yet. And uh, I think there's still some
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: holes offensively that they need to worry about. Um. So
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: to me, it's a pass a plus two sixty, especially
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: when you've got the Raiders and a dynamic offensive mind.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: And Josh McDaniels, you just said, you said what pisses
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: me off on the Russell wilsonthing. You said, You've done
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: all these amazing things for Seattle, name them, guy, There
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: isn't people can't I do it all the time, Like
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I have other pros to say that should I'm just like,
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: oh yeah, that amazing moment where he threw that pick
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: in the end zone where his team lost Super Bowl.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: Oh my, isn't that amazing moment where his team won
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: eight where his defense scored No, no no, no, no no, no, no no, no,
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: that is that is that is That is an over generalization.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: It's hot, like, look, congrats on eleven and five. Ever,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: you're making the playoffs and then losing in the first
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: and second round at home. You're defining great things as
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: having one championships. I'm defining great things as having covered
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: and many many times in his career when it seemed
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: like the Seahawks should have been out of the game
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: one way or the other, this guy has come back
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: and led them to a last second win or gotten
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: them to a place where they ended up covering the
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: game they shouldn't have covered. That's all I'm talking about.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: He has supreme athletic ability and the ability to make plays,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: an ability to keep his team in the game. Doesn't
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: mean they're Super Bowl contenders. No, doesn't mean that I
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: think this team can win the division. No. All I'm
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: saying is that I give him credit for over the years,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: haven't been a guy who kept his team in a
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: position to cover. I'm gonna find out what it splits
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: where historically against the spread after losing the legion of Boom.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's as good as you think it is.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Guess what. Guess what. Guess what. I guarantee him right
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: in the same way I was right about no quarterback
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: rafted and Boom Raiders plus seven hundred Josh McDaniels Derek
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: Carr signed Derek Carter a massive hundred forty million dollar
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: guaranteed deal. I mean that's the one. Yeah, we love.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: This is by far the best value I think of
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: all the divisions right now. This might be my favorite
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: value bet this. This team is again Gruden did definitely
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: Gruden and made off in these NFL drafts. They did
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: screw this Raiders team. Okay, they have holes on this defense,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: but oh my god, this offense, like if they can
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: figure it out with Adams, Renfro and Waller, unbelievable like this,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: that's it's it's literally again. We can go through all
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: the league. There's just so much talent everywhere. It's gotta
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: be one of the top five receiving corps. And Derek Carr,
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: we've seen him have those moments like he can make
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: throws that only a handful of guys can make. So
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: I hate it because I hate betting money on Derek
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: Carr because he just always burns me. I always like, okay,
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: because again he had that MVP year ship man it
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: might be like six years ago with a Mark Cooper
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: and Clel macro on his team. He has that in him.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: He just has not been able to put it together.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: And last year they were putting together. They just had
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: so much last year and they still somehow made the playoffs.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: And again they were a fourth down away completion in
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: the end zone from beating the Bengals on the road.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: So it's ugly, it's gross, but these are the bet
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: you need to make, and this is this to me,
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: is a smart bet taking the Raiders where this nowmuch
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: should be closer to plus four hundred, just because again
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I think the Chargers and Chiefs are better than them.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: But it's bumped way down just because people are so
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: much higher on Denver than we are. So I love
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: taking that value on the Raiders right now. All right,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: we love the Raiders plus seven hundred in the a
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: f C West, in the a f C North, we
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: kind of might like the Ravens a little bit. In
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: the A F c East Dolphins plus four hundred, A
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: couple pennies on Houston, couple, couple of shekels, a couple
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: two or three shekeles on Houston for Simon Hunter, for
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell. I am chadman Oman. This has been
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: the favorites from the Volume podcast Network. The guys will
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: be in a lot of questions about the show changing time.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: So every Tuesday and Thursday night at eleven o'clock Eastern
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: we will be dropping our episodes. Basically, it's a thing
• 40:56
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• 40:59
  Speaker 1: that schedule, So eleven pm Tuesdays and Thursdays, that's when
• 41:02
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• 41:06
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• 41:12
  Speaker 1: until next time, I love you, ye