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The Best Investment Ideas Outside the US · Merryn Talks Money

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
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Speaker 2: Hey Maren Talks Money listeners.
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Speaker 1: We are doing things slightly differently this week as things
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Speaker 1: are moving so fast. We recorded this week's main INFI
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Speaker 1: on Friday, but we wanted to get it out to
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Speaker 1: you right away before things change, because boy do they
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Speaker 1: change a lot.
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Speaker 2: So here it is.
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Speaker 1: You will still hear later in the week the next
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Speaker 1: one in our housing series, which is about freehold versus leasehold.
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Speaker 1: I think some of you know what I think about
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Speaker 1: that already, and post the Bank of England. Later in
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Speaker 1: the week you will get our usual round up from
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Speaker 1: me and John chatting about all sorts of things. But
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Speaker 1: for now, onto our interview. Welcome to Marin Talks Money,
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Speaker 1: the podcast in which people who know the markets explain
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Speaker 1: the markets. I'm Maren Somerset Web. This week we are
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Speaker 1: talking a little bit more about the end of US exceptionalism.
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Speaker 1: It's been exceptional for decades. You've had the dollar as
0:58
Speaker 1: the dominant global currency, You've had treasuries as a dominant
1:01
Speaker 1: reserve asset, you've had persistent current accunt officits, and of
1:04
Speaker 1: course you've had the US providing a global security umbrella
1:07
Speaker 1: to everybody. Those days appeared to be gone, Have they
1:11
Speaker 1: really gone? What might happen next, Who's going to take over?
1:14
Speaker 1: How much longer will the trade wark keep going? And
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Speaker 1: what is going to happen to markets? So for all this,
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Speaker 1: I'm joined by the perfect person with me today is
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Speaker 1: Louis Vincent Gaff, founding partner and.
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Speaker 2: Chief executive of gavcal.
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Speaker 1: Louis careersmans from serving in the French Army to working
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Speaker 1: as an equity research analyst at Parabout, where I also
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Speaker 1: worked once upon a time, by the way. In nineteen
1:34
Speaker 1: ninety eight, he co founded Gavcall in London with his father,
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Speaker 1: Charles Gaff, and economist journalist Anatol Kolatsky, acknowledging.
1:41
Speaker 2: Asia's growing role in the global economy.
1:43
Speaker 1: In two thousand and two, he moved the firm's headquarters
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Speaker 1: to Hong Kong.
1:47
Speaker 2: Louis, it's great to have you here, thanks for coming on.
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Speaker 3: Thank you so much for I'm to be delighted to
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Speaker 3: be here.
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Speaker 1: So I want to start with the US and US exceptionalism.
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Speaker 1: Your fan recently put out a chart book and the
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Speaker 1: title Global Strategy Investing After Exceptionalism. So before we move
2:04
Speaker 1: on to after Exceptionalism, I wanted to just ask you,
2:08
Speaker 1: are you sure the idea of US exceptionalism has come
2:12
Speaker 1: to an end.
2:13
Speaker 3: I think it's come to an end for now. I
2:15
Speaker 3: think you always go through different waves in the markets.
2:18
Speaker 3: We've gone through a period essentially of fifteen years where
2:22
Speaker 3: US markets where the US dollar itself outperformed pretty much
2:26
Speaker 3: everything else out there and behind. And this corresponded to
2:31
Speaker 3: genuine realities. I think you had two massive events in
2:35
Speaker 3: the US over the past fifteen years. One of them
2:38
Speaker 3: that's not talked about enough was the US shel Revolution.
2:41
Speaker 3: In the course of roughly eight or nine years, the
2:44
Speaker 3: US added to Saudi Arabia. It added eight and a
2:46
Speaker 3: half million barrels per day to its all production. Now
2:49
Speaker 3: it's unprecedented, huge productivity gain. All of a sudden, the
2:52
Speaker 3: US had a cheaper cost of energy than anybody else, etc.
2:55
Speaker 3: And that was a huge pillar to the growth story
2:58
Speaker 3: of the US for the past fifteen years. At the
3:00
Speaker 3: same time, while the US was basically more productive on
3:04
Speaker 3: energy than anybody else, you had the birth of the
3:07
Speaker 3: whole smartphone ecosystem. Apple launched the iPhone and the broader
3:12
Speaker 3: smartphone ecosystem from Google to Apple to Facebook. It was
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Speaker 3: essentially controlled by the US. Now, both of these huge
3:21
Speaker 3: events started to run out of gas a few years ago,
3:24
Speaker 3: but I think there was another wind to US exceptionalism
3:28
Speaker 3: thanks to all the excitement surrounding AI. There was all
3:31
Speaker 3: of a sudden AI was going to be the new
3:33
Speaker 3: golden goose, and Nvidia went through the roof, and Microsoft
3:38
Speaker 3: went through the roof, and this was also proceeding swimmingly along,
3:43
Speaker 3: and the market essentially developed this belief that in order
3:48
Speaker 3: to participate in this new golden goose, she needed to
3:51
Speaker 3: do fifty billion of capex every quarter, and there were
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Speaker 3: only a handful of companies in the world that could
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Speaker 3: do that, and they all happened to be in the US.
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Speaker 3: And this whole belief in AI is the golden Goose
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Speaker 3: was essentially shut through the heart in January when China
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Speaker 3: released Deep Seek and then followed up with Ali Baba's
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Speaker 3: L and M model and Buy Dance and Baidu, and
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Speaker 3: before you know it, it seems that every other week
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Speaker 3: we had another Chinese company also entering the AI space
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Speaker 3: and doing it at a fraction of the cost of
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Speaker 3: the Americans. And so all of a sudden, this belief
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Speaker 3: that was out there that AI was going to be.
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Speaker 3: This golden goose was no longer there because I think
4:27
Speaker 3: anybody who's been involved in the markets for the past
4:30
Speaker 3: twenty five years knows that when China enters a room,
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Speaker 3: profits walk out. The idea that you can make money
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Speaker 3: while competing with a Chinese company is ludicrous. So this
4:42
Speaker 3: is where we are today. You've had US companies that
4:45
Speaker 3: have essentially poured hundreds of billions into AI solution, and
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Speaker 3: China comes along and says, hey, I've done this with
4:51
Speaker 3: a piece of gum and two pieces of strain. And
4:54
Speaker 3: so now you look at these companies and think, okay,
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Speaker 3: where's the golden goose? How are these guys going to
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Speaker 3: generate outsized profits from here on out? Now? Throwing on
5:03
Speaker 3: top of that all the political uncertainty of the past
5:07
Speaker 3: six weeks or two months, all of a sudden, this
5:10
Speaker 3: belief that just like any typical emerging market policy in
5:14
Speaker 3: the US has made off the cuff with no predictability whatsoever,
5:19
Speaker 3: no really any kind of process. And then, all of
5:22
Speaker 3: a sudden, I think most people start to take a
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Speaker 3: sit back and say, hold on, the US is seventy
5:27
Speaker 3: percent of global marketcap. It's added twenty trillion in market
5:32
Speaker 3: cap in the past three years. To put in perspective,
5:35
Speaker 3: the total market cap of Japan is seven trillion. The
5:38
Speaker 3: total market cap of Europe is six trillion. So the
5:41
Speaker 3: US has added more than the whole market cap of
5:43
Speaker 3: Europe and Japan together in the past three years. So
5:47
Speaker 3: you take a step back and you think, hold on
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Speaker 3: the US is twenty three to twenty four percent of
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Speaker 3: global GDP, at seventy percent of global market cap, it's
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Speaker 3: got uncertain political leadership. What I thought was going to
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Speaker 3: be the golden goose ism there, and yeah, and capital
6:01
Speaker 3: is starting to look for opportunities elsewhere.
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Speaker 1: But if you look at it like that in terms
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Speaker 1: of the US as a percentage of global GDP and
6:09
Speaker 1: then as a percentage of global market cap, and you
6:12
Speaker 1: think maybe those two numbers should match up a little
6:14
Speaker 1: more than they do, then you're looking at US markets
6:17
Speaker 1: falling by a phenomenal amount. What you've seen over the
6:19
Speaker 1: last the volatility of the last few months, it's nothing
6:22
Speaker 1: relative to what that might mean.
6:24
Speaker 3: Well, look, if a proper bear market usually wipes out
6:28
Speaker 3: two or three years worth of gains in inequity market,
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Speaker 3: and that would be a twenty trailing wipeout. To have
6:33
Speaker 3: a proper bear market, usually you need a recession, and
6:36
Speaker 3: then you get to the question of are we heading
6:38
Speaker 3: towards a recession in the United States? And to your
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Speaker 3: point on US exceptionalism, if you look at the past
6:43
Speaker 3: fifteen years, we've had fifteen years in the US where
6:47
Speaker 3: almost year in year out, US economic growth not only
6:52
Speaker 3: surprise on the upside relative to expectations, but also outperformed
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Speaker 3: everybody else that I've performed Japan, it outperformed Europe, it
7:00
Speaker 3: performed essentially China that kept disappointing over at that time period.
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Speaker 3: As you look forward to twenty twenty five, this might
7:07
Speaker 3: be the first year in quite a while where actually
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Speaker 3: the US is going to end up with the weakest
7:13
Speaker 3: growth around. Why well, because if you look at recent years,
7:18
Speaker 3: what was really pushing US growth faster than everywhere else.
7:21
Speaker 3: One of them was massive fiscal easing that's now gone.
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Speaker 3: The second thing was very strong capital spending in technology,
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Speaker 3: mostly in AI that's now mostly gone or at least
7:34
Speaker 3: it's rolling over. And the third was outsized spending by
7:39
Speaker 3: higher end consumers who were making lots of money on stocks,
7:43
Speaker 3: making lots of money on crypto and therefore spending more.
7:47
Speaker 3: And today the US equity markets are actually under performing
7:50
Speaker 3: the other markets. So you're now left with the countrary
7:54
Speaker 3: of you're seeing fiscal stimulus in China, you're seeing fiscal
7:57
Speaker 3: stimulus in Europe, and you're seeing fys cool and monetary
8:01
Speaker 3: policy contraction in the US, who've got a tighter FED.
8:04
Speaker 3: They're still doing quantitative tightening. You have on the fiscal side,
8:07
Speaker 3: you've got doge and the effort to cut spending down.
8:11
Speaker 3: But even though they're both tightening, they're also pointing the
8:15
Speaker 3: finger at each other. And here I'll just disclose something
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Speaker 3: were all the fruits of our own experiences. I moved
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Speaker 3: to Asia in the mid nineties, and I witnessed firsthand
8:26
Speaker 3: a train wreck that was Japan through the nineties and
8:29
Speaker 3: nearly two thousands, and part of the zoo are you were.
8:33
Speaker 2: A japan all the way through the nineties, witnessing first had.
8:37
Speaker 3: And one of the things, so you'll remember that one
8:39
Speaker 3: of the characteristics of that period was the bog and
8:43
Speaker 3: mf kept pointing the finger at each other. The Bank
8:45
Speaker 3: of Japan and the Ministry of Finance in Japan kept
8:48
Speaker 3: pointing the finger at each other and blaming each other
8:51
Speaker 3: for the unfolding slow down and not really tackling the problem,
8:55
Speaker 3: which was, Okay, our banks or boss, we need to
8:57
Speaker 3: recapitalize them, et cetera. Well, fast forward to today, and
9:00
Speaker 3: you have exactly the same set up in the US.
9:02
Speaker 3: You have the Fed and the Treasury pointing the finger
9:06
Speaker 3: at each other as the economy is slowing down. And
9:09
Speaker 3: again we're all the fruits of our experiences. Maybe I
9:11
Speaker 3: have PTSD from that period and I'm still licking my
9:14
Speaker 3: wound from the amount of money I've lost in Japan
9:16
Speaker 3: over the years. But I look at this and I'm saying, Okay,
9:20
Speaker 3: I've seen this movie before. It feels somewhat similar in
9:23
Speaker 3: the US to me today.
9:25
Speaker 1: Slight tangent. But the one thing that the US does
9:28
Speaker 1: have that certainly most of Europe, for example, doesn't have
9:31
Speaker 1: the UKA in particular, is cheap energy. And if we
9:34
Speaker 1: think of economic activity as energy transformed, obviously, as you say,
9:38
Speaker 1: then the US does still have that massive advantage over
9:41
Speaker 1: most of the rest of the Western world.
9:44
Speaker 3: Absolutely that it does. But having said that, markets are
9:48
Speaker 3: made at the margin, and I think the coming years,
9:50
Speaker 3: a couple things are going to happen when it comes
9:52
Speaker 3: to Europe. We three years ago, following Russia's invasion in Ukraine,
9:57
Speaker 3: we told Katar, look, will fund your new gas terminals.
10:00
Speaker 3: And in the next year you're actually going to see
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Speaker 3: a lot more gas coming out of the Middle East
10:05
Speaker 3: and going into Europe. This is all the more so
10:09
Speaker 3: if the pipeline finally does get built through Syria and
10:12
Speaker 3: into Turkey and from there and from there onwards. So
10:15
Speaker 3: I'm not saying that Europe is going to have all
10:17
Speaker 3: of a sudden the same cheap cross of gas as
10:19
Speaker 3: the United States. But we're not going to be in
10:21
Speaker 3: the same shortage situation as we've been in recent years.
10:24
Speaker 3: And price could very well be lowered now. To your point,
10:27
Speaker 3: and this is an important point, and economic activity is
10:30
Speaker 3: energy transformed. And today, wherever you care to look in
10:34
Speaker 3: the world, energy costs are lower than they were a
10:36
Speaker 3: year ago. All prices are like sixty bucks. All prices
10:39
Speaker 3: is super cheap. If you'd think back a year ago,
10:42
Speaker 3: two years ago, the US was the only place that
10:45
Speaker 3: had cheap energy. It really was. It was the only
10:47
Speaker 3: place that had cheap energy. And that made the US exception.
10:51
Speaker 3: Today essentially everybody's got cheap energy now. Now Granted, you
10:54
Speaker 3: could say that's not going to stay this way, but
10:58
Speaker 3: my view on this, at Europe, you might very well
11:02
Speaker 3: have a natural gas glood coming in. That's number one.
11:05
Speaker 3: Number two. Today, everybody's very excited that the fiscal stimulus
11:09
Speaker 3: that Europe is starting to implement is all going to
11:12
Speaker 3: go into weapons. So everybody turns around and buys Ryan
11:15
Speaker 3: Mettal and buys Taless in France and all sorts of
11:19
Speaker 3: weapons producers. Personally, I struggled to buy that argument. I
11:22
Speaker 3: started to buy that argument because we don't even have
11:24
Speaker 3: armies anymore. So it's like, why are we going to
11:26
Speaker 3: buy tanks? We don't even have guys to drive the tanks.
11:28
Speaker 3: And if you look across Europe, the reality is France
11:31
Speaker 3: has somewhat as a little bit of an army, the
11:33
Speaker 3: UK barely has one, and Poland has one, and that's it.
11:36
Speaker 3: Like nobody else has an army.
11:38
Speaker 1: And it's also tor I suppose that the nature of
11:40
Speaker 1: war has changed, and if there's anything that the Ukraine
11:43
Speaker 1: Russia war has shown us is that the old weapons,
11:46
Speaker 1: the tanks, etc. Maybe useless, possibly worse than useless in
11:50
Speaker 1: future grand wars, should future ground wars even exist?
11:52
Speaker 2: Under the circumstances.
11:54
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely rights. And on this I really recommend to
11:56
Speaker 3: your listeners by Eric Prince. Blackwater, the world's biggest mercenary army,
12:01
Speaker 3: essentially equivalent to the US of Bargner Group. Eric Prince
12:04
Speaker 3: gave a speech in February at Hillsdale College in the
12:07
Speaker 3: Future of Warfare and essentially the lessons from the Ukraine War,
12:10
Speaker 3: and it is fascinating. It's well worth an hour. But
12:14
Speaker 3: coming back to your point, I don't think we're going
12:15
Speaker 3: to spend a ton on weapons, but in Europe we're
12:17
Speaker 3: going to spend a ton on our energy grid. Because
12:19
Speaker 3: if you take a step back, the US essentially guaranteed
12:23
Speaker 3: two things for Europe. One of them was the security umbrella,
12:25
Speaker 3: no doubt, and the other was the guarantee that whatever happens,
12:31
Speaker 3: we'll be there to deliver energy to you. And we
12:33
Speaker 3: saw this during the Ukraine War. You know, when the
12:35
Speaker 3: North Stream pipeline very mysteriously blew up, the US at
12:39
Speaker 3: least had the courtesy to turn around and say, you
12:42
Speaker 3: know what, will empty our strategic petroleum reserves and we'll
12:45
Speaker 3: provide you with a bunch of cheap energy. And essentially
12:47
Speaker 3: that brought the price of energy back down and allowed
12:50
Speaker 3: Europe to have a decent winter. So I highlight all
12:54
Speaker 3: this because you know, for me, the trend of the
12:57
Speaker 3: coming few years in Europe is, yes, we're to have
13:00
Speaker 3: fiscal stimulus. No, it's not going to go in the army.
13:02
Speaker 3: It's going to go into the other thing that the
13:05
Speaker 3: Americans were providing for us, which was energy security. And
13:08
Speaker 3: that means that I'd rather own Siemens than Ryan Mittau.
13:12
Speaker 1: And that's something's definitely highlighted by the blackout in Spain
13:14
Speaker 1: and Portugal.
13:15
Speaker 3: Exactly, you've got this huge blackout. It shows that we
13:18
Speaker 3: are far off where we need to be. So all
13:21
Speaker 3: this to say that you're absolutely right, the US still
13:25
Speaker 3: have a huge comparative advantage on energy, but that was
13:29
Speaker 3: the big story of US exceptionalism. Do we think that
13:32
Speaker 3: comparative advantage grows from here or do we think of shrinks?
13:35
Speaker 3: The direction of travel matters tremendously, and with Europe, I
13:40
Speaker 3: think realizing that we need to invest across our grid,
13:44
Speaker 3: whether it be in nuclear, whether it be in LNG terminals,
13:47
Speaker 3: whether it be in more solar panels where well.
13:50
Speaker 1: Isn't of a couple of weeks ago that maybe the
13:52
Speaker 1: last thing we need to invest in is more solar panels.
13:55
Speaker 3: Yes, the first thing we need to do. The reality
13:58
Speaker 3: is there's a short term solution and that's more LNG
14:01
Speaker 3: because energ doesn't pollude very much. And there's a long
14:04
Speaker 3: term solution, which is more nuclear. That's essentially it. And
14:07
Speaker 3: if you have the political willingness, and I think in
14:10
Speaker 3: Europe's increasingly the political willingness to do both, then Europe
14:14
Speaker 3: is in a better place.
14:16
Speaker 2: Yeah.
14:16
Speaker 1: Okay, let's go back briefly to the US and it's exceptionalism.
14:20
Speaker 1: The dollar been dominant for so long. There's a lot
14:23
Speaker 1: of discussion about dedollarization, and that bey one of the
14:25
Speaker 1: last nails in the coffin of US exceptionalism. If the
14:28
Speaker 1: dollar is no longer the most dominant global currency, how
14:32
Speaker 1: do you see that panning out?
14:34
Speaker 3: For me, I'll go back to this Eric Prince video
14:38
Speaker 3: because for me, it's a super important to understand Donald
14:41
Speaker 3: Trump's world view today because Eric Hunce happens to be
14:44
Speaker 3: very close to Donald Trump. The message of that video
14:47
Speaker 3: on YouTube is essentially, the primacy of US weapons on
14:51
Speaker 3: the battlefield is over. Now. We can debate this all day,
14:53
Speaker 3: et cetera. But what matters is Eric Prince is close
14:55
Speaker 3: to Donald Trump, so he tells him this. And the
14:58
Speaker 3: way that Donald Trump reacts to this is to say,
15:02
Speaker 3: you know what, I'm going to fold back onto the Americas.
15:06
Speaker 3: Like Europe can sort itself out, Asia can sort itself out.
15:09
Speaker 3: America's is mine. And so you know, essentially that goes
15:13
Speaker 3: back to JD Vance's speech in Munich. That was a
15:15
Speaker 3: breakup speech. And so now if you're Europe again, you know,
15:18
Speaker 3: for years, the US has run massive twin deficits. And
15:22
Speaker 3: by the way, say if you're Indonesia, same if you're Thailand,
15:24
Speaker 3: same if you're any anybody in the greater US orbit.
15:27
Speaker 3: The US has run these huge twin deficits. And you
15:31
Speaker 3: got these dollars, and you thought, Okay, what do I
15:34
Speaker 3: do with these dollars? The default mode was I'll buy
15:36
Speaker 3: US treasuries, partly because if anything goes wrong, if Russia
15:42
Speaker 3: invades Ukraine, if I need to buy energy, if there's
15:44
Speaker 3: a tsunami, you know whatever. If I need to buy weapons,
15:47
Speaker 3: I can count on the US Navy delivering those. Now,
15:51
Speaker 3: the new reality of the world that we're in is
15:55
Speaker 3: you have a US administration today that is extremely predatory foreigners.
16:01
Speaker 3: Everything they're doing is trying to make foreigners pay for
16:05
Speaker 3: their mistakes of the past. So the US is thirty
16:07
Speaker 3: seven trillion dollars. It's like, got we're going to fill
16:09
Speaker 3: that hole with tariffs. We're going to fill that hole
16:11
Speaker 3: by selling five million gold cards to the richest foreigners
16:15
Speaker 3: who are going to come here and pay taxes here.
16:17
Speaker 3: We're going to fill that hole by charging higher capital
16:21
Speaker 3: gains and higher income taxes on people who invest in
16:23
Speaker 3: the US and so on and so forth. So now
16:25
Speaker 3: if I'm a foreigner, I think, well, do I want
16:28
Speaker 3: to keep buying US treasuries on the premise that if
16:31
Speaker 3: I go wrong, the US will backstop me. To be honest,
16:34
Speaker 3: if I live in the Americas, yes, because the America's
16:37
Speaker 3: Trump has made very clear he's building Fortress America. He's
16:40
Speaker 3: not going to put tariffs on the Latin Americans. He's not.
16:43
Speaker 3: He's going to do more trade with them. So if
16:45
Speaker 3: you're in Latin America, you're fine. But if you're Europe,
16:49
Speaker 3: if you're Asian, I think you start thinking, well, instead
16:52
Speaker 3: of buying treasuries, I'm going to use these dollars. Right now,
16:55
Speaker 3: all they're doing is buying gold. My point is at
16:58
Speaker 3: some point they'll say, you know what, I'm going to
17:00
Speaker 3: build my own strategic petroleum reserve. I'm going to build
17:03
Speaker 3: my own strategic copper reserve, nicole, because it just makes
17:08
Speaker 3: more sense than owning treasuries. I was buying treasuries in
17:11
Speaker 3: case I needed these commodities in the future. I'll just
17:13
Speaker 3: stop bother the true And you could say, well, there's
17:15
Speaker 3: a cost to start puling the treasure the commodities, for sure,
17:19
Speaker 3: but you now know that in a crisis you have them,
17:23
Speaker 3: you have them, while in a crisis you don't know
17:25
Speaker 3: if you can count on the US anymore.
17:27
Speaker 2: Yeah.
17:28
Speaker 3: So, yeah, we're entering a very different phase of the
17:31
Speaker 3: dollar global standard, absolutely, one in which I think commodities
17:35
Speaker 3: are going to reraiate massively.
17:37
Speaker 1: So it sounds like you would expect the trade war
17:39
Speaker 1: to just keep going. This is not something that's going
17:42
Speaker 1: to end quickly, and the relationship between China and the
17:44
Speaker 1: US to continue to break down and possibly at a
17:47
Speaker 1: long term division between East and West and a shift
17:50
Speaker 1: of economic activity to the East.
17:53
Speaker 3: So look, there's short term and there's long term. So
17:56
Speaker 3: to answer your question, short term, like I think things
17:59
Speaker 3: are as bad as they can be short term. So
18:01
Speaker 3: short term, it's pretty obvious that that Trump is desperately
18:06
Speaker 3: looking to walk back some of the China tariffs because
18:10
Speaker 3: if he doesn't, by the time the summer rolls around,
18:13
Speaker 3: there'll be no fireworks at the fourth of July. They
18:16
Speaker 3: will be empty shelves at Walmart. And what was it
18:19
Speaker 3: two days ago? Trump came out and said, maybe instead
18:22
Speaker 3: of having thirty dollars, girls can just have two or
18:25
Speaker 3: three dolls. And I listened to this and I thought,
18:27
Speaker 3: is there anything more on American than this? The idea
18:30
Speaker 3: that you do with less seems to me completely anathema
18:35
Speaker 3: to what everything the US believes in the last time,
18:38
Speaker 3: the last guy who tried that was Jimmy Carter and
18:40
Speaker 3: that didn't work out for So in the short term,
18:44
Speaker 3: he's gonna need a deal with China. Now. The problem
18:47
Speaker 3: he has is when you need a deal real bad,
18:50
Speaker 3: you get a real bad deal. And she jimpings stimulating
18:54
Speaker 3: his own economy to compensate for the loss of the
18:57
Speaker 3: US export markets. But essentially there's a power play unfolding
19:04
Speaker 3: right and cgmping. He's out there trying to show Trump
19:08
Speaker 3: that China has no pushover and domestically the positions are
19:12
Speaker 3: now completely opposite, and that the longer the trade war lasts,
19:18
Speaker 3: the less the popularity of Trump because the worst thing
19:23
Speaker 3: for any elected official is to get involved in the
19:26
Speaker 3: war that your people don't want. And there isn't real
19:29
Speaker 3: no indication that Americans have any interest in this trade war.
19:33
Speaker 3: So the longer it lasts, the stronger CG and PING
19:35
Speaker 3: gets in, the weaker Trump gets. So what's the incentive
19:38
Speaker 3: for cgmpin to come to the table. At some point
19:42
Speaker 3: he will because you know, you do want those manufacturing
19:45
Speaker 3: jumps back, but it might take a few months. We
19:50
Speaker 3: might be in for a tough summer.
19:52
Speaker 2: It wouldn't expect more blinking from Trump. You just expect
19:55
Speaker 2: a tough summer standoff.
19:56
Speaker 3: I think the seas have already been planted for a
19:59
Speaker 3: tough summer. We've got everything now. You know, you've got
20:02
Speaker 3: all the ism surveys, that all the soft data is collapsing.
20:06
Speaker 3: I think you've got a lot of anecdotal evidence of
20:09
Speaker 3: supply chain dislocation starting in the construction sector. Projects starting
20:13
Speaker 3: to get canceled, workers trying to get to get fired.
20:17
Speaker 3: Like anything where you have a bit of a supply
20:20
Speaker 3: chain complication. People pulling back. You're starting to see insurance
20:25
Speaker 3: rates for car insurance and home insurance starting to go
20:29
Speaker 3: up on the premise that replacement costs are going to
20:32
Speaker 3: be much higher because you've got all the dislocations. It's
20:34
Speaker 3: going to be like COVID all over again. So insurance
20:36
Speaker 3: rates are going up, which in turn is going to
20:40
Speaker 3: squeeze consumer disposable income. Now against that, you could say, well, yeah,
20:44
Speaker 3: but energy prices are low, food prices are low, so
20:46
Speaker 3: that's going to keep money in the consumer's pockets. And
20:49
Speaker 3: that's true. That's the sort of silver lining to what
20:52
Speaker 3: I think is a pretty dark cloud showing up for
20:55
Speaker 3: the US economy.
20:57
Speaker 2: Okay, well that doesn't sound great. It's entirely what I expected.
21:03
Speaker 2: Entirely what I expected.
21:04
Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about where people might invest.
21:10
Speaker 2: Where they might invest.
21:11
Speaker 3: Now you mentioned lots, of.
21:13
Speaker 2: Course there are there always are that loads of places
21:15
Speaker 2: to invest.
21:15
Speaker 1: And if America was exceptionally expensive, then a lot of
21:18
Speaker 1: the world was exceptionally cheap. If we're looking at equities, right, absolutely,
21:22
Speaker 1: now your area of expertise, but you have every area
21:25
Speaker 1: of expertise, but you know, an awful lot more about
21:27
Speaker 1: China than most people, and that market, as you've written yourself,
21:30
Speaker 1: was until relatively recently considered by most institutional investors or
21:33
Speaker 1: many institutional investors, to be uninvestable.
21:36
Speaker 2: But that's not the case anymore. Right, they're coming around.
21:39
Speaker 3: It depends where they're from, to be honest, it really
21:42
Speaker 3: depends where they're from. I think if you were from
21:44
Speaker 3: the Middle East, you never considered China investible to begin with,
21:47
Speaker 3: and you're more than your probably your eagerness to invest
21:50
Speaker 3: there continues to grow. Europe is slowly starting to change
21:55
Speaker 3: its stripes, I think the China, but the US it's
21:57
Speaker 3: still a very dirty word. China sover dirty word. Having
22:01
Speaker 3: said this, and to your point of there's many places
22:04
Speaker 3: to invest, we take a step back and we think, Okay,
22:07
Speaker 3: we're now entering a period where I think it's very
22:11
Speaker 3: likely that the US dollar goes down from here as
22:13
Speaker 3: foreigners as you know, the trend that we've started to
22:15
Speaker 3: see of foreigners leaving China leaving the US, that's you know,
22:19
Speaker 3: these things unfold over time. It's a new trend, it's
22:22
Speaker 3: going to be a trend for years to come. So
22:24
Speaker 3: if we're starting a phase of structurally weaker US dollar
22:27
Speaker 3: number one, while at the same time China is stepping
22:31
Speaker 3: on the gas big time, both through fiscal and monetary
22:33
Speaker 3: policy and putting pressure on banks to lend more aggressively.
22:37
Speaker 3: And at the same time, energy prices are low, and
22:41
Speaker 3: at the same time food prices are low. On the
22:45
Speaker 3: liberation day of the announcements of the teriff, I was
22:47
Speaker 3: in Latin America. Imagine you're Latin America's central banker. Are
22:52
Speaker 3: you the central banker of Peru or Chile or Columbia wherever?
22:54
Speaker 3: And you now have an environment where old prices are low,
22:58
Speaker 3: US dollars going down, the prices are cheap, and China stimulating.
23:03
Speaker 3: That is literally like you couldn't asked for more for
23:06
Speaker 3: Christmas and so and you don't even need to believe
23:10
Speaker 3: in Santa It's just been delivered to you. So it's
23:13
Speaker 3: for most emerging markets, whether you're called India, whether you're
23:15
Speaker 3: called Indonesia, whether you called China, an environment of falling
23:19
Speaker 3: dollar week oil, China stimulating. It's a bonanza. It's as
23:24
Speaker 3: boad as good as it gets. And now this is
23:26
Speaker 3: unfolding out of time when a lot of these assets,
23:28
Speaker 3: perhaps not India but you look at Brazil, you look
23:32
Speaker 3: at Colombia, you look at China, you look at Indonesia.
23:35
Speaker 3: A lot of these assets are about as cheap as
23:36
Speaker 3: they've ever been, or at least as they've ever been
23:39
Speaker 3: in the past ten years. Perhaps they were cheaper post
23:41
Speaker 3: as crisis, but that was a lifetime ago anyways, So
23:44
Speaker 3: it's I think there's a lot to be done, and
23:47
Speaker 3: there's a lot of exciting stories out there, and then
23:49
Speaker 3: a lot of things that are completely under owned. The
23:51
Speaker 3: reality is that for the past five six years, the
23:54
Speaker 3: markets were driven by essentially thirty large cap names in
23:57
Speaker 3: the US or the mag seven, another ten ten tech names,
24:01
Speaker 3: plus Walmart, cost Go, etc. But aside from these thirty names,
24:06
Speaker 3: like nobody had any interest in basically anything else and
24:10
Speaker 3: everything else did nothing for ten years, and now it's
24:13
Speaker 3: starting to show signs of life. So there's lots of
24:15
Speaker 3: places to invest. I think financials are super interesting. Most
24:18
Speaker 3: countries are seeing their financials outperform. You're seeing steeper yield
24:22
Speaker 3: curves everywhere, improving then interest margins. I think emerging markets
24:26
Speaker 3: are super interesting. I mean, commodity space is interesting, depending
24:29
Speaker 3: on your risk profiles and your willingness to to take
24:33
Speaker 3: on short term volatility. There's things to do.
24:37
Speaker 1: Okay, So in terms of I'm going back to China,
24:41
Speaker 1: if you're a retail investor, is it a reason why
24:43
Speaker 1: I did simply buy a Chinese fund? Yes, I fund
24:46
Speaker 1: investing in Chinese actualities across the board or an ETF.
24:50
Speaker 3: Few people realized this last year, but so if you
24:52
Speaker 3: take the biggest Chinese ETF, which is FXI in the US,
24:57
Speaker 3: last year, it was pretty much the only major country
24:59
Speaker 3: to have perform the US. Nobody realizes this. This year
25:02
Speaker 3: it's outperforming again, but yet it's really seen no inflows whatsoever.
25:07
Speaker 3: The little inflows that China's had in the past sort
25:10
Speaker 3: of six months have really gone into k Web, which
25:12
Speaker 3: is the sort of tech the sort of internet platform,
25:15
Speaker 3: sort of techy ETF in the US. I think there's
25:19
Speaker 3: essentially three different things driving the Chinese market right now.
25:22
Speaker 3: One of them is the revaluation of tech that got
25:25
Speaker 3: absolutely slaughtered post Ali Baba crackdown, and it's still very cheap,
25:30
Speaker 3: and so you've got that dynamic going. That's one dynamic.
25:34
Speaker 3: You have a second dynamic, which is driven by frankly,
25:37
Speaker 3: retail investors in China. Of them buying high dividend yielding
25:42
Speaker 3: stocks because interest rates are zero in China, and you've
25:44
Speaker 3: got all these companies that are giving six seventy eight
25:47
Speaker 3: percent yields and companies that aren't going to go bust,
25:50
Speaker 3: like you know, the Petro China's of this world or
25:52
Speaker 3: the Bank of China, et cetera. So this domestic retail
25:55
Speaker 3: that's buying this, and then there's the domestic consumer names.
25:59
Speaker 3: As the guvernment comes and says we're going to do
26:00
Speaker 3: more stimulus, you're starting to see life in some of
26:03
Speaker 3: the consumer names. So there's three different themes that are unfolding,
26:06
Speaker 3: and of course, if you buy the index, you get
26:08
Speaker 3: all three.
26:10
Speaker 2: Yeah.
26:10
Speaker 1: Can you see the American retail investor beginning to move
26:13
Speaker 1: out of the US? I mean, it's been interesting, hasn't
26:15
Speaker 1: it watching them buy the Great single dip? And it's
26:18
Speaker 1: hard to see the American retail investors suddenly saying I'm
26:21
Speaker 1: not going to buy this passive fund into the US
26:23
Speaker 1: market into that, I'm going to go and choose one
26:25
Speaker 1: of Louis's favorite emerging markets. I'm going to go out
26:28
Speaker 1: and buy Brazil or Perats, I'm going to go and
26:29
Speaker 1: buy China or whatever.
26:30
Speaker 2: It is it. It's kind of tough to see, isn't it.
26:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's not going to happen. But no, do
26:35
Speaker 3: you need that for China tail perform. The level of
26:37
Speaker 3: Chinese savings is absolutely enormous. What you need in China
26:41
Speaker 3: is for the Chinese investors to stop just leaving their
26:43
Speaker 3: money in the bank and or buying gold, to start
26:46
Speaker 3: buying their own stocks. You don't need the US investor.
26:48
Speaker 3: My bigger fear actually in the US at US markets
26:52
Speaker 3: is that the US investors are going to start selling
26:55
Speaker 3: their SMP and their Max seven, et cetera, not so
26:59
Speaker 3: much to buy something else, but to pay for their
27:02
Speaker 3: insurance to pay for their cost of living that is
27:05
Speaker 3: going up. You've now had four years forty eight months
27:08
Speaker 3: in a row with inflation going up above two percent.
27:11
Speaker 3: And remember that this occurred at a time when all
27:14
Speaker 3: prices were essentially going down, at a time when the
27:17
Speaker 3: US dollar was super strong. And now you're moving forward
27:20
Speaker 3: to a time when US dollars trying to go down
27:24
Speaker 3: or you're going to have these huge tariffs that are
27:25
Speaker 3: going to be a big inflationary shock, and an inflationary
27:29
Speaker 3: shock not just on oh the stuff I buy a
27:32
Speaker 3: Walmart is more expensive. But like I said, you turn around,
27:36
Speaker 3: your car insurance is more expensive, your home insurance is
27:38
Speaker 3: more expensive, your local taxes are more expensive, and people
27:42
Speaker 3: are going to end up having to sell stocks to
27:45
Speaker 3: just pay the bills.
27:46
Speaker 2: We won't go there. Then, no investing in America, everybody.
27:49
Speaker 1: But one of the conversations about the Great Rotation and
27:52
Speaker 1: is I think one that we've been having on this
27:53
Speaker 1: podcast a lot over the last few months because we've
27:55
Speaker 1: been telling people to rotate out to the US, but
27:57
Speaker 1: actually for too long, As you said, we're always a
27:59
Speaker 1: good which hasn't been us very popular. But a lot
28:02
Speaker 1: of the conversation about the Great Rotation has been about
28:05
Speaker 1: rotating out of the US into Europe. And we have
28:09
Speaker 1: also been hoping for a long time that people will
28:11
Speaker 1: finally start to put some money into the ridiculously cheap UK,
28:14
Speaker 1: and in particular into UK small caps, which of course
28:17
Speaker 1: almost insanely cheap. Do you see any reason for optimism there?
28:22
Speaker 3: The small caps are cheap everywhere I know there's stupid cheap.
28:25
Speaker 3: I know they're stupid cheap. In the UK they're actually
28:28
Speaker 3: quite cheap. In the US they're cheap, they're stupid cheap
28:31
Speaker 3: in Japan, They're cheap everywhere, And I think this goes
28:34
Speaker 3: to perhaps the shift in our global the way people
28:38
Speaker 3: invest in. Increasingly they just buy the indices, and so
28:41
Speaker 3: you're having this dislocation where if you're part of a
28:44
Speaker 3: SMP five hundred or foots one, you get these passive
28:48
Speaker 3: flows that come in, but not so much in the
28:52
Speaker 3: small caps, like nobody buys. You know, there's no volume
28:54
Speaker 3: in those small cap ETFs. And to the extent that
28:58
Speaker 3: you're now in a situation where what is it in
29:01
Speaker 3: the US, like sixty percent of the flows I'm now interpassive.
29:05
Speaker 3: That essentially means it all goes into one hundred names
29:09
Speaker 3: or five hundred of course for the SMP five hundred.
29:11
Speaker 3: But to get super excited about small caps you, I
29:15
Speaker 3: think the first thing you need is for the marginal
29:18
Speaker 3: doll to just stop going into indexing, which is which
29:21
Speaker 3: which usually we'd seen something like this in the late
29:23
Speaker 3: nineties before and then two thousand and one to two
29:26
Speaker 3: thousand and seventy hat hujab performance in small caps because
29:29
Speaker 3: there was no flowing to an indexing following the big
29:32
Speaker 3: bear market of two thousand and two thousand one. So
29:36
Speaker 3: perhaps was people to get fired up about small caps again. First,
29:39
Speaker 3: we need a bear market, a proper bear market.
29:42
Speaker 1: Right, so everyone moves out of index funds and has
29:45
Speaker 1: it go inactive again.
29:46
Speaker 2: Okay, what about UK large cap?
29:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, UK large it's a tricky one because you look
29:52
Speaker 3: at the foot see one hundred. It's not really a
29:54
Speaker 3: UK index. It's cheap. It's super cheap because there's a
29:58
Speaker 3: bunch of commodities in there that nobody wants to own
30:01
Speaker 3: any more. I want it on them, but I feel
30:03
Speaker 3: like I'm the only one.
30:04
Speaker 2: And no, no, lots of our listeners want to earn them.
30:06
Speaker 2: They want to commodities. They do. But we'll come back
30:09
Speaker 2: that in a minute.
30:10
Speaker 3: It's almost like the Ausie Index. It's like banks, insurance
30:13
Speaker 3: companies and commodities, and these are the things that have
30:17
Speaker 3: been derated the most aggressively. Now. I'm very bullish on financials,
30:20
Speaker 3: I'm very bullish on commodities. So of course I like
30:23
Speaker 3: the foot Sea one hundred, as you know, de facto.
30:27
Speaker 3: And add on top of that the fact that the
30:29
Speaker 3: pound isn't very expensive, et cetera. There's lots of reasons. Now,
30:34
Speaker 3: I think in terms of international news flow, the UK
30:38
Speaker 3: hasn't done a lot in the past ten twelve years
30:40
Speaker 3: to get people excited to redeploy capital in the UK.
30:43
Speaker 2: Let's stick with commodities.
30:45
Speaker 1: We talked a little bit about why you are bullish
30:47
Speaker 1: on commodities week dollar etc.
30:49
Speaker 3: It is there are Yeah, Look again, we're all the
30:52
Speaker 3: fruits of our own experiences in my career. Each time
30:54
Speaker 3: you've had a week dollar in China stimulating, commodities have
30:57
Speaker 3: done well. Now I take it, you could say this
30:59
Speaker 3: time it's different because either we have all this success
31:04
Speaker 3: supply of oiled option on. You could say this time
31:06
Speaker 3: it's different because China stimulus is going to go more
31:10
Speaker 3: into consumption and infrastructure spending or real estate. There's lots
31:14
Speaker 3: of reasons why it could be different. Having said that,
31:18
Speaker 3: I'm looking at assets that are trading. If I'm looking
31:21
Speaker 3: at the commodity producers, a lot of them are trading
31:23
Speaker 3: at record low valuations. And people always tell you when
31:28
Speaker 3: things are trading at very high valuations. I either dot
31:31
Speaker 3: Com in nineteen ninety nine or AI up until ten
31:35
Speaker 3: minutes ago. People tell you this time it's different on
31:38
Speaker 3: the way up. But people also tell you this time
31:40
Speaker 3: it's different on the way down. You could have record
31:42
Speaker 3: low valuations and people tell you, yeah, don't worry about
31:45
Speaker 3: these valuations. They make sense because that place is condemned.
31:48
Speaker 3: And this time it's different, and you'll never get off
31:51
Speaker 3: the floor of these valuations, even as people implement the
31:54
Speaker 3: very policies that are going to get you off the floor.
31:57
Speaker 3: And so I think you've had the This time it's
32:00
Speaker 3: different argument for AI and it hasn't been true. People
32:02
Speaker 3: are still holding on to the This time it's different
32:04
Speaker 3: for commodities, and I don't think you'll be true either.
32:08
Speaker 1: What is the this time it's a different argument for
32:10
Speaker 1: commodities staying on sort slow valuations.
32:13
Speaker 3: That China is is you know, kind of structurally screwed,
32:17
Speaker 3: and that you have excess supply on oil. That a
32:20
Speaker 3: lot of the old producers, because some of the cheapest
32:22
Speaker 3: starks are of course the energy producers. That essentially it's
32:25
Speaker 3: trapped assets because in the next ten years will all
32:29
Speaker 3: be driven around in self drive cars, that it will
32:32
Speaker 3: all be electric and that will all go two thousand
32:35
Speaker 3: kilometers on five minute charge. Yeah, you know, all that good.
32:40
Speaker 2: Stuff, but that electricity still has to come from somewhere.
32:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, you don't have to you don't have to convince me.
32:46
Speaker 2: I have to convince you that much.
32:48
Speaker 3: I believe it's you asked me what this time? A
32:50
Speaker 3: different argument. I don't buy that this time it's a
32:52
Speaker 3: different argument, But you asked me what it was.
32:54
Speaker 1: No, I just wanted to get that out of there.
32:56
Speaker 1: But I think we entirely agree on this one. What
32:58
Speaker 1: about gold, I mean one of the Maya's hair. As
33:00
Speaker 1: you say, it's been the central banks, but retail investors
33:03
Speaker 1: have been coming in recently. The central banks are still buying.
33:07
Speaker 1: Is that a bull market that's barely begun or is
33:10
Speaker 1: it peaking?
33:11
Speaker 3: So it's a bit tough one as well, going back
33:13
Speaker 3: to that. This time it's different, Yeah, because if you
33:15
Speaker 3: look on the valuation basis, gold is now one ounce
33:19
Speaker 3: of gold is forty five barrels of oil. Historically it's
33:22
Speaker 3: about twenty To buy an ounce of gold takes three
33:24
Speaker 3: weeks of US wages. Historically it's about one and a
33:27
Speaker 3: half weeks.
33:28
Speaker 4: If you look at gold relative to the US house prices,
33:31
Speaker 4: if you look at gold relative to copper to silver, like,
33:34
Speaker 4: gold is expensive on any kind of historical matrix that
33:38
Speaker 4: you care to look at.
33:39
Speaker 2: Ah, but this time is different.
33:41
Speaker 3: Boom exactly. This time it's different. You do have a
33:44
Speaker 3: shift in the global dollar standard that we discussed. Look,
33:48
Speaker 3: you've entered the sort of blow off phase on gold.
33:49
Speaker 3: You can't short it. You might not even want to
33:53
Speaker 3: sell your gold until it rolls over and it crosses
33:56
Speaker 3: under the TUNA day moving average or something like this.
33:58
Speaker 3: Like because these ball markets once get going, they can
34:00
Speaker 3: really rip. So you don't want to be offside on this,
34:03
Speaker 3: especially when you consider I look at the landscape and
34:06
Speaker 3: I know there's there's obvious buyers such as the Saudi
34:11
Speaker 3: Central Bank and the Chinese Central Bank. If you know,
34:14
Speaker 3: if I'm Pangongchang, if I'm the governor of the PBOC
34:17
Speaker 3: and cgmpin tells me you're buying gold, then I'm buying gold,
34:19
Speaker 3: you know. And just like these guys were buying bond
34:23
Speaker 3: bonds with negative yields and didn't care about the evaluation.
34:26
Speaker 3: Now they're buying gold instead. So that can last for
34:28
Speaker 3: a long time. And yes, retail has just started going.
34:31
Speaker 3: And you know in recent years we knew there was
34:34
Speaker 3: one big seller, the big seller with the ETFs. Actually
34:37
Speaker 3: you look at the JAILDTF, the share count camp thrinking
34:40
Speaker 3: now the share count is expanding again, so you have
34:43
Speaker 3: to wonder who's going to be the seller. You could
34:45
Speaker 3: say the gold miners sell, but they haven't found a
34:48
Speaker 3: lot of gold in the past ten years, so they
34:49
Speaker 3: don't have a ton of gold to sell. So then
34:51
Speaker 3: you're like, Okay, who's going to be the big seller here?
34:53
Speaker 3: Deep down, I think at some point to what we're
34:55
Speaker 3: going to see is that these guys the central banks China, Saudi,
34:59
Speaker 3: et cetera, and say, you know what, let's start buying gold.
35:01
Speaker 3: Now we're buying copper, and now we're buying silver, and
35:03
Speaker 3: now we're buying Obviously, if you're setting you're not buying oil.
35:06
Speaker 3: But if you're China, let's buy more oil. Let's build
35:09
Speaker 3: up commodity reserves and all the more. So if you're
35:12
Speaker 3: a rich country like China, you buy gold because it's
35:15
Speaker 3: a way to store wealth that doesn't cost anything. You
35:18
Speaker 3: just put it in a safe Storing oil costs money,
35:21
Speaker 3: Storing copper costs money, storing or storing soybeans, all these
35:25
Speaker 3: things cost money. But if you're China, you can actually
35:28
Speaker 3: afford it. And so I think at some point in
35:31
Speaker 3: the next six months you're going to see a lot
35:35
Speaker 3: of these guys start to rip from saying okay, in
35:38
Speaker 3: start of being a marginal buyer of gold, let's be
35:40
Speaker 3: a martial buyer of the other commodities and just store
35:42
Speaker 3: those instead.
35:43
Speaker 2: Now lit a lok before I get you, let you go.
35:45
Speaker 1: One thing we briefly mentioned, or you briefly mentioned that
35:47
Speaker 1: you've written quite a lot of books. Which one would
35:49
Speaker 1: you like to recommend to our listeners today as being
35:52
Speaker 1: the most relevant to the current situation.
35:55
Speaker 3: Obviously, My most recent one, personally was was a called
36:00
Speaker 3: Avoiding the Punch, which was really about the clash between
36:03
Speaker 3: China and the US that's been unfolding. I wrote it
36:06
Speaker 3: back in twenty twenty one, but it was a follow
36:09
Speaker 3: up on a book that I'd written in twenty nineteen
36:12
Speaker 3: called Clash of Vampires, so they sort of it. It's
36:15
Speaker 3: like a two part book really, and I like it.
36:19
Speaker 3: I think it's a good read. Our most recent book
36:22
Speaker 3: is published by gaff cal It's a book called The
36:24
Speaker 3: General Theory of Portfolio Construction. It's really a booklet. It's
36:27
Speaker 3: like eighty pages, but it's essentially back on this idea
36:30
Speaker 3: using a rugby team as to build your portfolio is
36:33
Speaker 3: how do you build yourself a well diversified portfolio. And
36:36
Speaker 3: it's a very easy read. If you want the printed copy,
36:39
Speaker 3: you've got to order it to our website. But if
36:40
Speaker 3: you go to our website, you can download a free
36:42
Speaker 3: E copy, so there you go. Well, total bargain exactly.
36:46
Speaker 3: Thank you at that price, it's a bargain.
36:49
Speaker 2: Absolutely absolutely.
36:51
Speaker 1: Thank you very much for that recommendation, and thank you
36:54
Speaker 1: so much for coming on.
36:54
Speaker 2: I really appreciate.
36:55
Speaker 3: It, pleasure. Thank you very much for robbing me.
37:04
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to this week's Maren Talks Money. If
37:06
Speaker 1: you like us, show, rate, review, and subscribe wherever you
37:08
Speaker 1: listen to podcasts and keep sending questions or comments to
37:11
Speaker 1: Merron Money at Bloomberg dot net. You can also follow
37:14
Speaker 1: me in John on Twitter or x I'm at marinersw
37:17
Speaker 1: and John is Underscore Stepic. You can also find us
37:20
Speaker 1: on Blue Sky or Threads if those are the places
37:22
Speaker 1: where you spend your time. This episode was hosted by
37:25
Speaker 1: me Maren Zumset Web. It was produced by Someersadi Moses
37:28
Speaker 1: and Amantala Amadi. Sound designed by Blake Maples and special
37:32
Speaker 1: thanks of course to Louis Vincent gab