Latest / Foul Territory / Former MLB GM Jim Duquette breaks down Skubal’s real market, Orioles trade chips, Angels GM search delay

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Former MLB GM Jim Duquette breaks down Skubal’s real market, Orioles trade chips, Angels GM search delay · Foul Territory

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Most confusing story of the offseason so far is about
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: the team that I'm wearing a shirt for today.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: Halo Territory. Great show. Mike DiGiovanna and Mark Trumbo. They
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: bring it. Real talk. You can agree, disagree. They're bringing it. AJ,
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: yesterday we talked about how the.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Team might get everything in place and be able to
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: get the GM and everything in the next couple weeks
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: so that they can also play ball during the real offseason,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: which is right now until the lockout. And then Bill
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Shagan came out with a report that they're not going
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: to get that approval. They're not going to go over
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: that in the owners meetings coming up in a couple
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: of weeks. And then Jeff Fletcher updated his report from
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: yesterday and said his source now says that the sale
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: is not currently on the docket for that November meeting,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: despite what John Mazaloc says and others within the Angels thought.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: So Mo still says the GM search is on hold
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: till an MLB vote.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: They haven't interviewed anyone. OK, so this is not going
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: to happen.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: At this point, until I would say at least December,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: if not January, I think is when they do the
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: next meeting in person with everyone, Orange County Register. There's
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: no MLB rule that would prevent the Angels from hiring
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: a new GM before the sale is complete, an MLB
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: spokesperson said. But clearly at this point, they've made it
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: clear they're.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: Not going to do that. So hot, sizzling mess to
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: start the offseason. They don't even know. Mo doesn't even
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: know what the deal is unless he just misspoke. What
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: is going on?
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Nobody knows.
• 1:20
  Speaker 4: We know this, the angels, one more gift from Marty Moreno,
• 1:23
  Speaker 4: not being able to do anything before the December 1st deadline.
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: It's, it's, it's just one more gift. Yeah.
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: Because if they, even if they wanted to plan it,
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: they're going to have to hope that they get some
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: guys that don't sign before December 1st, after this is done. And,
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: and once the lockout happens, can they still do a
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: sale or is that, you know, is that allowed during
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: the lockout or can the owners just go on about
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: their business? Like nothing's happening. Like they, seem to want
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: to do. So, I mean, I guess it doesn't affect
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: the players, but they can do their sale whenever. They
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: won't be able to sign anybody. They're just going to
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: get whoever's left, whoever doesn't sign before December 1st.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: There's somebody with the Angels right now that's coming to
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: the office every day, and they're like, what am I doing?
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: Is there anybody else here? They just look down the hall,
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: and there's nobody there. They look down. They're looking over
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: their cubicle. They're like, I guess I'll I'll stay till
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: four today. I'm not, not sure exactly what's like, if
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: they're not searching for a GM, what are we doing?
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: Are we making a free agent board? Hey, who's going
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: to go and talk to Michael King about coming to Anaheim? Uh,
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: Mo's like, I don't know me, you, me. I'm, I'm
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: not talking to what, how much do we have to spend?
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: Artie's like, I'm not answering the phone.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: If you come on the show with some regularity, you
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: get the goods. Holding court with the Duke.
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: That's good.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: That's really nice. You get the goods there, Duke. That's
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: handcrafted beauty. Jim Duquette joining us. And if you're listening
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: to the podcast version of this, there was a really
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: nice animation that you should check out on YouTube, our
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: former MLBGM here.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: Duke, good to see you, dude.
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: Nice to see you, guys.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you too. Who do you think is going to
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: hold court with that little Duke there?
• 3:10
  Speaker 6: I'm laughing because Kratzy's idea, which I totally agree.
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: You're working for the angels.
• 3:15
  Speaker 7: You're walking down the highway, the hallway going, where the hell,
• 3:20
  Speaker 7: where is everybody?
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: What the hell is going on here?
• 3:23
  Speaker 6: All right, I guess I'm out of here.
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: Let's go to the beach.
• 3:27
  Speaker 6: Let's go to the beach.
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: I mean, you're right there. Like, why put in the
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: effort in Anaheim right now?
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: You have no boss. What do you do?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: How confusing is that story right now? I mean, John
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Mazalek's been in the industry for a long period of time.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: He knows the sport. He clearly is not even getting
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: the messaging. on what's going on and when his job
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: kind of ends and how he helps to find the
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: next GM.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: And then they can't participate in the off season, which
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: is mostly going to go down now.
• 3:54
  Speaker 7: You hardly ever have an ownership change at this time
• 3:56
  Speaker 7: of the year. Most of the time it's at the,
• 3:59
  Speaker 7: it's the following quarter. It's in the middle of the summer.
• 4:00
  Speaker 7: If you remember the Orioles, that was right around opening day.
• 4:05
  Speaker 7: We've had one, I went through one with the Mets
• 4:08
  Speaker 7: that happened in September.
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: And That was the transition, though.
• 4:13
  Speaker 7: It was already part owned by the Wilpon, so they
• 4:16
  Speaker 7: took over the full ownership. That was fairly seamless when
• 4:21
  Speaker 7: it comes to transitions. And so to your guy's point,
• 4:26
  Speaker 7: when you don't have– you have an absentee boss for
• 4:30
  Speaker 7: the most part. Artie's been that way for the last
• 4:31
  Speaker 7: couple years, right? And that's the way he's run the franchise.
• 4:34
  Speaker 7: And now you're still waiting for the approval. I was
• 4:37
  Speaker 7: told the same thing. It's not on the table, and
• 4:40
  Speaker 7: it's not likely there would be added to the agenda
• 4:43
  Speaker 7: the ownership vote.
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: So you have to wait.
• 4:46
  Speaker 6: They could do it in December, but none of that's
• 4:49
  Speaker 6: going to.
• 4:49
  Speaker 5: Happen before the lockout.
• 4:51
  Speaker 7: And so if you're John Moselak, you're sitting there, you're
• 4:54
  Speaker 7: gathering information is about all you can really do. You
• 4:57
  Speaker 7: gather information about what free agents are available, what teams
• 5:01
  Speaker 7: like your players, which he already did at the trade deadline.
• 5:05
  Speaker 7: You can put together a list of candidates, which I'm
• 5:08
  Speaker 7: sure Mo has done, a list of four or five
• 5:12
  Speaker 7: that absolute slam dunk guys you try to recruit. And
• 5:16
  Speaker 7: then when you're not going to be able to get
• 5:18
  Speaker 7: those guys because the approval is going to happen in January.
• 5:21
  Speaker 7: And I don't think any current general manager wanting a
• 5:24
  Speaker 7: president's job would leave at that point unless the money
• 5:28
  Speaker 7: is just absolutely ridiculous.
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: And it could be.
• 5:31
  Speaker 7: You're going to have to basically wait another cycle before
• 5:34
  Speaker 7: you can actually go ahead and talk to a real
• 5:37
  Speaker 7: GM that would have interest in that job.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's crazy.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: And it gets me to the main man I wanted
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: to ask you about first. So let's start with the
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Tarek Skubal market. And I know it's crazy, but when
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: a new ownership group takes over and he's the richest
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: owner in sports, even richer than Steve Cohen in our
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: sport in baseball, I wouldn't have put it past them
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: to be like, yeah, let's talk to Tarek Scooble. Let's
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: show everyone. Hey, we just grabbed a guy from the Dodgers,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: just like they grabbed Otani from us. And we're here
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: to put a stamp on a similar market. So with
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: that being said, what's the real market for Tarek Scooble?
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Who do you think is going to be involved? And
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: where do you think the money lands?
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: He's going to sign before the ownership approval, right?
• 6:24
  Speaker 7: So that knocks out the angels at this point, but yeah, I,
• 6:28
  Speaker 7: And I know when you talk to Scott Boris, and
• 6:32
  Speaker 7: he's not wrong in a lot of this, but he'll
• 6:34
  Speaker 7: say every team understands the importance of a number one starter,
• 6:39
  Speaker 7: that the league looks at number one starters like the
• 6:42
  Speaker 7: NFL looks at quarterbacks. And that's not necessarily wrong, but
• 6:46
  Speaker 7: we all know quarterbacks affect way more of of the
• 6:52
  Speaker 7: game than.
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  Speaker 5: A number one starter does.
• 6:54
  Speaker 7: And the starter affects that day, and he affects how
• 6:57
  Speaker 7: you use your pitching the day before and the day after,
• 6:59
  Speaker 7: all of that. You just argue that he impacts three
• 7:03
  Speaker 7: out of the five days or six days.
• 7:05
  Speaker 5: It's still not the same.
• 7:06
  Speaker 7: As a quarterback. There should be a ton of teams
• 7:09
  Speaker 7: that are interested in him. But every time I hear
• 7:11
  Speaker 7: a team that is interested, I just go back to
• 7:15
  Speaker 7: their history and go, oh, they're not going to give
• 7:16
  Speaker 7: him that kind of money. So when you start to
• 7:18
  Speaker 7: narrow it down, I feel like it's the Padres. I
• 7:20
  Speaker 7: feel like it's the Mets. I feel like it's the Dodgers.
• 7:23
  Speaker 7: Maybe there's one other team.
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: Maybe it's the Giants, possibly.
• 7:27
  Speaker 6: But I can't, you know, maybe you guys came up
• 7:30
  Speaker 6: with one.
• 7:30
  Speaker 7: But, like, when I hear the Cubs, the most that
• 7:34
  Speaker 7: they spent on their contract was Jason Hayward and Dansby Swanson, right,
• 7:39
  Speaker 7: two position players. They're not spending that kind of money
• 7:41
  Speaker 7: on a starting pitcher. When I hear the White Sox, A.J.,
• 7:44
  Speaker 7: you know that. Andrew Benatendi is the most expensive guy
• 7:48
  Speaker 7: they've signed.
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: As a free agent.
• 7:50
  Speaker 7: They're not– 75 million bucks is what Benatendi's getting paid
• 7:55
  Speaker 7: for five years. Scouble's going to get that in one year,
• 7:59
  Speaker 7: times five probably. So it's just places like that, reality
• 8:04
  Speaker 7: has to set in at some point. They're not– he's
• 8:08
  Speaker 7: not signing there. So I really keep coming back to
• 8:10
  Speaker 7: the same three or four teams. Maybe Toronto is a
• 8:14
  Speaker 7: team that, you know, they certainly have the money to
• 8:15
  Speaker 7: do it. I don't feel like they need pitching as
• 8:18
  Speaker 7: much as they need offense, but those are the teams.
• 8:21
  Speaker 5: I mean, if you guys have a different one, I'd
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: love to hear it.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: I mean, I brought up, I'm actually doing math from
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: what you said right there. So, but I brought up,
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: I brought up the Nats. Obviously it's got shut down ownership, blah, blah, blah.
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: Just to make, just thinking of teams that want to
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: take that next step and need this, like, kind of
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: landmark type of contract. The Braves, same thing. They do
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: try to stay under their CBT threshold. But the question
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: to me, like you just brought it up. You said
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: 75 for five. Do you think a team is going
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: to go, because I feel like they're going to break
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: the record. I don't think they're going to break the
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: AAV record because I think they're going to break the
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: overall record. Do you see teams in this landscape, which uncertainly,
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: And he's going to sign before December is what we're
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: thinking going with massive annual value or massive overall value.
• 9:19
  Speaker 7: So I, he's definitely going to break the record, like
• 9:22
  Speaker 7: you said. And so there's ways to get there, right?
• 9:24
  Speaker 7: The reason why I suggested 75 or 70 million is
• 9:28
  Speaker 7: because of what we saw with Tucker last year at
• 9:30
  Speaker 7: 60 mil per year with the AV. And I know
• 9:32
  Speaker 7: it was only four years, but still 240 mil or
• 9:35
  Speaker 7: with Bichette, like the Mets did.
• 9:37
  Speaker 6: There are, If that's your cup of tea, if that's what.
• 9:40
  Speaker 7: You want to do in terms of keeping the years down,
• 9:44
  Speaker 7: then the AEV is going to have to go way
• 9:46
  Speaker 7: up and it's going to have to be north of
• 9:48
  Speaker 7: Tucker to get to 350 million, which is the, which
• 9:52
  Speaker 7: would at least be the record, you know, certainly would
• 9:55
  Speaker 7: be the record on the starting pitching side of things,
• 9:57
  Speaker 7: but it.
• 9:57
  Speaker 6: Could go north of 350.
• 9:58
  Speaker 5: So, you know.
• 10:00
  Speaker 7: Again, I think the overall number matters more and there
• 10:04
  Speaker 7: would be flexibility from Boris Corp if you want to
• 10:08
  Speaker 7: do it over six years or something like that.
• 10:12
  Speaker 6: You know, I think if you decide to go push
• 10:16
  Speaker 6: it out eight.
• 10:16
  Speaker 7: Nine, 10 years, that's where I think the number is
• 10:18
  Speaker 7: going to get really high. Do I think it's north
• 10:22
  Speaker 7: of Tucker's AEB?
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: I find it hard to believe.
• 10:25
  Speaker 7: But, you know, I think that that's how the number
• 10:29
  Speaker 7: is going to grow so fast, as you guys know.
• 10:31
  Speaker 7: So I, you know, I think that, you know, is it,
• 10:34
  Speaker 7: I think I came on here last time I said
• 10:36
  Speaker 7: my prediction was 400 million.
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: I'm going to stick to that 400 million.
• 10:40
  Speaker 7: But, you know, how you get there, it might be
• 10:44
  Speaker 7: over seven years, it might be over eight years personally,
• 10:47
  Speaker 7: without any of the deferred comp nonsense that we've seen
• 10:51
  Speaker 7: over the last couple of years with the Dodgers and
• 10:53
  Speaker 7: deferring that and getting the present value, all that stuff,
• 10:55
  Speaker 7: which is going to, I think, go away the next
• 10:58
  Speaker 7: CBA with or without the cap. Like we're not going
• 11:01
  Speaker 7: to allow the deferred comp, you know, math, the whole
• 11:04
  Speaker 7: accounting issue that it becomes.
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: Then why wouldn't you just say, listen, I'm going to.
• 11:09
  Speaker 7: Give you 10 years at 400 million. That allows me
• 11:12
  Speaker 7: to spread it out enough. you know, that's in itself
• 11:16
  Speaker 7: a form of, of deferment, something along those lines. If, if,
• 11:20
  Speaker 7: if the Boris Corp is willing to do that and
• 11:22
  Speaker 7: Scooble is, so there's different ways to get there, but
• 11:24
  Speaker 7: I think the total number, the total amount of dollars
• 11:27
  Speaker 7: is going to be the most important when you sign them.
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: Jim, can you walk us through how one of these
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: signings happens? Does Boris Corp reach out to all 30 teams?
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: You're the GM. You're sitting there. Scott Boris calls you
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: or one of his people calls you and says, Hey,
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: do you have any interest in Tarek Scooble? And you
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: give them a yes or no. And then you, Then
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: you start negotiating or do you call Boris first and say, hey,
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: we are interested in Tarek Skobel. Here's an offer. We
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: want to make an offer. Can you take us behind
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: the scenes on how a deal like this would work?
• 11:56
  Speaker 7: Well, Scott is very specific in how you kind of
• 11:59
  Speaker 7: negotiate with him. Like he doesn't very, very rarely does he.
• 12:04
  Speaker 7: In fact, you know, he may have over the years,
• 12:07
  Speaker 7: but I don't keep track of every contract, but he
• 12:09
  Speaker 7: hardly ever makes a proposal himself. It's almost always me.
• 12:13
  Speaker 7: from the team side. When you see reports out there,
• 12:17
  Speaker 7: Boris is asking for this. Most of the time, that's
• 12:20
  Speaker 7: not accurate. The team will throw out a number, but
• 12:25
  Speaker 7: he's not calling all 30 teams because he's not going
• 12:27
  Speaker 7: to waste his time with some of those teams.
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: He's not signing to Miami.
• 12:31
  Speaker 7: He's not signing in Pittsburgh. Cleveland's not going to spend
• 12:36
  Speaker 7: that kind of money. There's certain places you already know
• 12:39
  Speaker 7: you're not going there, but you know, so he gets
• 12:43
  Speaker 7: it to 10 or 12 teams and he's going to
• 12:45
  Speaker 7: try to sell, you know, the front office on it
• 12:48
  Speaker 7: or sell primarily, he's going to sell ownership on it.
• 12:51
  Speaker 7: He's got to, he really has to sort through who the,
• 12:55
  Speaker 7: who the real contenders are versus the teams that pretend.
• 12:58
  Speaker 7: And I throw the Cubs out there because they, they
• 13:00
  Speaker 7: more than more times than not at that level are
• 13:03
  Speaker 7: pretending their owner. Isn't going to really let you go there. So,
• 13:07
  Speaker 7: you know, I think even when they were pursuing Otani.
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: Did, didn't anybody really believe it? I didn't believe any
• 13:12
  Speaker 5: of that. You know what I mean?
• 13:13
  Speaker 7: So like, cause just, again, it's, it's the history of
• 13:16
  Speaker 7: it all. So, so, you know, they think Scott has
• 13:19
  Speaker 7: a pretty, he has a better understanding than anyone really
• 13:22
  Speaker 7: about who's, you know, going to be in there.
• 13:24
  Speaker 5: You do get surprises sometimes, right?
• 13:26
  Speaker 7: Like way back when he had Prince Filler, he's, you know, he,
• 13:29
  Speaker 7: he talked to the Illich family into signing him, you know,
• 13:32
  Speaker 7: to a huge contract, right? We've seen that, you know,
• 13:36
  Speaker 7: over time, but, With Scooble, it's going to be partly
• 13:39
  Speaker 7: what he wants. And if you're going, and you guys
• 13:41
  Speaker 7: know this, he's not going to Boris unless he's getting
• 13:43
  Speaker 7: the most money or pretty darn close to the most money.
• 13:45
  Speaker 7: So you end up narrowing it down to five or
• 13:49
  Speaker 7: six teams. You hope to have a mystery team, the
• 13:51
  Speaker 7: proverbial mystery team. And then he's taking offers. When you
• 13:56
  Speaker 7: make your offer on a Scooble, it's a blind offer.
• 14:02
  Speaker 7: You have no idea what you're up against. That's what
• 14:05
  Speaker 7: makes it so difficult. You end up bidding against yourself.
• 14:08
  Speaker 7: He makes you think that he has higher offers. Sometimes
• 14:12
  Speaker 7: he'll get pissed off at an offer that you feel
• 14:15
  Speaker 7: was the greatest offer.
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: And your best bolt. He'll make it look like you're
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: not even close.
• 14:22
  Speaker 7: And so you really have to determine what you think
• 14:25
  Speaker 7: the fairest value is and what your highest ceiling is.
• 14:28
  Speaker 7: And if you get to that point and ownership's not
• 14:31
  Speaker 7: willing to go there, then you've got to back out.
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: But most of the teams.
• 14:35
  Speaker 7: know when you're, you're pursuing Boris Corp clients, that if
• 14:38
  Speaker 7: you enter the fray, it's going to get bloody. You
• 14:41
  Speaker 7: might as well keep, and you're staying in this for
• 14:44
  Speaker 7: the longterm. And eventually you're probably going to bid against yourself.
• 14:48
  Speaker 7: If you're going to end up getting the player. All right.
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: We were talking about like schemes and gimmicks that Boris
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: is doing is the greatest scheme and gimmick this year.
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: The fact that we've totally brushed under the rug, that
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: he had a scope on his elbow and, Now it's
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: a nanoscope. Is this not being talked about as much?
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: When teams come at him about that, are we supposed
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: to believe that everything's okay because he came back and
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: pitched like Scooble?
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 15:23
  Speaker 7: I think we need to rename it the Scooble scope
• 15:25
  Speaker 7: because no one else, I don't think it's going to,
• 15:28
  Speaker 7: have that surgery and come back like he did.
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: Like it's unbelievable how quickly he came back.
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 15:33
  Speaker 7: Even I think Snell had the same, the same version
• 15:37
  Speaker 7: of it. And he was weeks after Scooble. I think
• 15:42
  Speaker 7: when we go back, when that happened, the information that
• 15:47
  Speaker 7: we got out of there from Ella Trash was, it
• 15:50
  Speaker 7: was basically, I think I'm paraphrasing, but it was something
• 15:55
  Speaker 7: to the effect of it was a clean elbow outside
• 15:57
  Speaker 7: of the fact that he had the bone chip. Now
• 16:01
  Speaker 7: we all know that there's some cause to it, right?
• 16:04
  Speaker 7: And so, you know, there are some issues you would
• 16:09
  Speaker 7: imagine with the elbow, but we don't get access to that.
• 16:11
  Speaker 7: Only the teams will. And yeah, I think that you're,
• 16:16
  Speaker 7: if you're buying on Scooble, right. I was trying to
• 16:19
  Speaker 7: imagine this from, you know, any team that's going to
• 16:21
  Speaker 7: spend that kind of money, you're never going to feel
• 16:23
  Speaker 7: comfortable at the dollar amount, whether it's, You have all
• 16:26
  Speaker 7: of the medicals or not. If you want to box
• 16:28
  Speaker 7: them out because of that, then don't even bother entering
• 16:31
  Speaker 7: the fray there.
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: But I think, like, I remember we went back, there.
• 16:36
  Speaker 7: Were some concerns that we had with Pedro Martinez, as
• 16:38
  Speaker 7: an example, way back in the day. And that year
• 16:42
  Speaker 7: that we signed him was going into the 2005 season.
• 16:46
  Speaker 7: The Red Sox had a concern about it too, right?
• 16:49
  Speaker 7: That's why, that's how we were able to get him.
• 16:51
  Speaker 7: We were able to go an extra year and, you know,
• 16:53
  Speaker 7: he ended up missing about a little over a year
• 16:55
  Speaker 7: because he had Tommy John surgery.
• 16:56
  Speaker 6: It may very well be that with, with Scooble.
• 16:59
  Speaker 7: That you're, Hey, I'm going to sign him for eight years,
• 17:01
  Speaker 7: but I know he's only going to probably pitch for
• 17:03
  Speaker 7: us for six. And, and you're going to have to
• 17:07
  Speaker 7: somehow wrap your head around that and feel comfortable with that.
• 17:09
  Speaker 7: It's not, it's not, it's just not going to be
• 17:11
  Speaker 7: an easy one, but I think you have to go
• 17:13
  Speaker 7: into it with that assumption, knowing what we know about
• 17:16
  Speaker 7: the the history.
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: John Lackey type of contract where if he has an
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: elbow surgery he has to play on the league minimum
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: Tarek Scouble on the league minimum that would be crazy
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: you got.
• 17:27
  Speaker 7: To get Boris to accept that which he probably won't
• 17:29
  Speaker 7: but I mean I did bring this up on my
• 17:31
  Speaker 7: show today Eric just I'm glad you brought it up
• 17:33
  Speaker 7: because Lackey that was that was an exceptional deal at
• 17:36
  Speaker 7: the time that you know the Red Sox did I
• 17:38
  Speaker 7: don't remember anyone since then having a similar contract where
• 17:43
  Speaker 7: that that you get an extra year added on because
• 17:46
  Speaker 7: he was injured during that, during that stretch. But yeah,
• 17:50
  Speaker 7: I mean, ideally if you could get that done, that
• 17:52
  Speaker 7: would be great, but I don't think they'll accept that.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. I would agree. But earlier we were
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: talking about Freddie P versus Michael King. Freddie P versus
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: Michael King was really hard for me because I saw
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: both of these guys at the beginning of their career
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: and like they have a place in my heart. If
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: you're a team, this is two parts. If you're a team,
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: who are you choosing? But also address what I brought
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: up afterwards. I said, if the Cubs are in, kind
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: of in on Scooble, could they be a team that
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: gets both of them? Or is that just unheard of
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: as a GM?
• 18:31
  Speaker 7: I mean, it's hard to get two starters. I think
• 18:33
  Speaker 7: I caught the tail end of what you said there
• 18:35
  Speaker 7: at the end, and I agree with you.
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: When you're signing as a GM, you're like, huh. I
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: know I need two starters.
• 18:41
  Speaker 7: Can I really get both via free agency, or can
• 18:44
  Speaker 7: I get one and then trade for one? And there's
• 18:47
  Speaker 7: a whole trade market out there that you could try
• 18:50
  Speaker 7: to knock on the door and see if you can
• 18:51
  Speaker 7: get Rasmussen or somebody like that. I don't think Rasmussen
• 18:54
  Speaker 7: will be available, but we have to look at what
• 18:57
  Speaker 7: Tampa's done in the past and say, hey, they have traded,
• 19:00
  Speaker 7: been willing to trade guys with one year left, making
• 19:03
  Speaker 7: 20 mil, but they have a new ownership group. So
• 19:05
  Speaker 7: I'm hoping they're going to keep them. But back to
• 19:08
  Speaker 7: your point, Peralta or King, it is a tough decision.
• 19:11
  Speaker 7: I like them both. My only concern that I had
• 19:17
  Speaker 7: with Peralta was seeing him pitch in New York. It
• 19:21
  Speaker 7: just didn't seem like it was a good fit. It's
• 19:23
  Speaker 7: a good fit in other places. It was a great
• 19:26
  Speaker 7: fit in Tampa. I'd love to see Tampa go back
• 19:29
  Speaker 7: and re-sign him and give him close to what he's
• 19:33
  Speaker 7: looking for.
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: I think he'd be with the.
• 19:35
  Speaker 7: State Having no state tax there and the comfort level
• 19:40
  Speaker 7: that he had with Cal Snyder and the way he
• 19:42
  Speaker 7: pitched once he went to Tampa, I think that's a
• 19:45
  Speaker 7: perfect fit for him.
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: There's others too. Chicago. I said Atlanta. I think Atlanta.
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: Peralta and Atlanta, I can envision that.
• 19:52
  Speaker 7: I can also envision King in Atlanta, too, along with
• 19:57
  Speaker 7: the Cubs. But I know this with Michael King.
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: The injury history.
• 20:03
  Speaker 7: That he had aside, I think partly why he went
• 20:06
  Speaker 7: to San Diego was there was some friction in that
• 20:09
  Speaker 7: area last year. He stayed healthy the entire year. That's
• 20:12
  Speaker 7: two of the last three years where he's been healthy.
• 20:15
  Speaker 7: He doesn't have a ton of mileage on his arm.
• 20:18
  Speaker 7: The strikeout rate has gone down a little bit. But, man,
• 20:22
  Speaker 7: I love Michael King, everything about him. He's a guy
• 20:25
  Speaker 7: that I have complete confidence of him pitching in any environment. So,
• 20:31
  Speaker 7: you know, I guess depending on who I am, if
• 20:34
  Speaker 7: I'm a large market club that has the intensity, the
• 20:37
  Speaker 7: East Coast, I'd go Michael King. Outside of that, I
• 20:41
  Speaker 7: think Peralta would be a good fit too. I think
• 20:43
  Speaker 7: he's a year younger maybe. So I don't think he
• 20:46
  Speaker 7: can go wrong either. But I would err more on
• 20:49
  Speaker 7: the side of caution and go with King.
• 20:51
  Speaker 5: If all the medical comes back, fine.
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: If you're running the Orioles and they just said, everybody
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: but Pete Alonso is available, is the Orioles' decision really
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: about making everybody available and not about what I believe
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: it is? making hard decisions, moving a Gunnar Henderson out
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: of the position that maybe he's not to play in
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: the big leagues? Or do you think the route they're going,
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: where it's like started by Adlai Rutschman, getting traded, all right,
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: let's start moving these guys on.
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 21:25
  Speaker 7: I think they have a big PR or had a
• 21:27
  Speaker 7: big PR issue, right? So there was the perception, right
• 21:31
  Speaker 7: or wrong, and I think it was more right, that
• 21:33
  Speaker 7: they didn't want to trade any of their homegrown guys.
• 21:36
  Speaker 7: So now they trade Adley in the division. It was
• 21:39
  Speaker 7: a big, big overhaul for what they got back. Those
• 21:44
  Speaker 7: are hard to turn down. That's, I think, the only
• 21:47
  Speaker 7: reason why he was willing to do Rutschman into Boston
• 21:50
  Speaker 7: at the time. You know, with Gunner, I don't believe
• 21:54
  Speaker 7: that you're going to trade Gunner at this point.
• 21:57
  Speaker 5: He's coming off of.
• 21:59
  Speaker 7: Two below what you expect out of him, below average
• 22:02
  Speaker 7: seasons that way. And I think You put him on,
• 22:06
  Speaker 7: and I've already talked to people around him, you put
• 22:09
  Speaker 7: him on the Pete Alonzo, J.D. Martinez hitting program, Gunner's
• 22:14
  Speaker 7: going to come back and be the player that he
• 22:17
  Speaker 7: was a couple years ago.
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: He's too talented to not.
• 22:21
  Speaker 7: I think he just got wrapped up in trying to
• 22:24
  Speaker 7: swing for home runs last year, and he was under
• 22:28
  Speaker 7: almost everything, a ton of strikeouts as we saw. And
• 22:31
  Speaker 7: then he just kind of looked like he got in
• 22:34
  Speaker 7: his own head. So for me, Gunner, you're just not
• 22:38
  Speaker 7: going to move him because I don't think– I think
• 22:41
  Speaker 7: you'd be missing out on the upside of him. Everybody else, certainly,
• 22:45
  Speaker 7: I'd put him on the potential trade block if there's
• 22:48
  Speaker 7: something you can get value back in return. But I
• 22:51
  Speaker 7: think that's where they were just responding to some of
• 22:54
  Speaker 7: the local criticism that comes with– has come to them
• 22:59
  Speaker 7: over the last two seasons. But I don't expect– at
• 23:01
  Speaker 7: the end, if you look at their roster– You can't
• 23:04
  Speaker 7: really trade Westbrook.
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: Because he's been injured so much. There's not the value there.
• 23:09
  Speaker 7: Couser has been okay in center field, but he hasn't
• 23:12
  Speaker 7: really given you much on the offensive side, so you're
• 23:15
  Speaker 7: not going to get a ton of value there. It's
• 23:17
  Speaker 7: just like going through. Basayo is 21 years old. You're
• 23:20
  Speaker 7: keeping him. I'm having a hard time figuring out. They're
• 23:23
  Speaker 7: not going to trade Beavers, I don't think.
• 23:25
  Speaker 5: They just got him.
• 23:26
  Speaker 7: So I'm just not believing what they're saying is a
• 23:31
  Speaker 7: long-winded answer. Now, could they trade a starter? Possibly, but
• 23:37
  Speaker 7: they're looking for starting pitching, right? So I'm just having
• 23:40
  Speaker 7: a hard time figuring out who that person or players
• 23:44
  Speaker 7: are that are named Tyler O'Neal or, you know what
• 23:48
  Speaker 7: I mean, or Blaze Alexander. I think it's going to
• 23:51
  Speaker 7: be hard for them to match up, and so I
• 23:54
  Speaker 7: think they're going to have to do their adjustments, their
• 23:59
  Speaker 7: improvements from within in terms of, you know, getting Gunnar
• 24:03
  Speaker 7: on track, getting Westberg to stay healthy, all of that,
• 24:06
  Speaker 7: and then adding from free agency.
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: That's how I could see their winter going.
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm confused.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: And maybe Jared Banner helps to clean this up. I
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: know he's new to the party there and they're going
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: to give him some power. But this past trade deadline,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: they sell. They were kind of talking they were going
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: to buy, but they sold. Then they got Luis Robert.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: That was a disaster.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: I don't believe there's much that they're going to trade,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: but then if it's clearly getting leaked and I believe
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: the report, you're also admitting that you're tanking for five,
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: six years, ended up with, Hey, we'll trade anybody, but
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: Pete Alonzo, like, wait, what? So either way, the messaging's
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: kind of messed up.
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: It is messed up.
• 24:45
  Speaker 7: And, and, you know, I think that anytime I like,
• 24:49
  Speaker 7: I like transparency, but a lot of times with transparency,
• 24:53
  Speaker 7: there's an indictment of, of your own organization that, So
• 24:57
  Speaker 7: they're basically telling you, we didn't do a very good
• 24:59
  Speaker 7: job of our own development, of our own players, our
• 25:02
  Speaker 7: internal development. That's why we're bringing in a guy like
• 25:05
  Speaker 7: Jared Banner to hopefully fix that. We over-evaluated our players.
• 25:09
  Speaker 7: Now we're going to make everybody available. Everyone's available now.
• 25:12
  Speaker 5: They just go to the other extreme, and.
• 25:14
  Speaker 6: That doesn't work either.
• 25:15
  Speaker 7: So the messaging hasn't been very good for the last
• 25:19
  Speaker 7: couple years, and there's been enough questions about– ownership and
• 25:24
  Speaker 7: their involvement, and are they holding people accountable there too?
• 25:28
  Speaker 7: So I think all of that– this is a really,
• 25:31
  Speaker 7: really important year for that front office, I think, just
• 25:34
  Speaker 7: in terms of getting some credibility back and hopefully for
• 25:39
  Speaker 7: them getting back to the postseason where they should have
• 25:42
  Speaker 7: been the last couple of seasons but fell far short.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, leaders of front offices for Mets, Mariners, and– but
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: at least one or two others where I'm like, if
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: you don't make the post season, Oh, Orioles, of course,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: maybe one or two others after that. Like if you
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: don't make the playoffs next year, I mean, they, it's been, it's.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: Been some disappointment. So we'll, we'll get to that on
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: the next one. Dude. Good stuff, dude. Good to see
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: you guys.
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: Good to see you.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: I really liked this exercise, but.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: MGM near opening day, Cy Young futures, Garrett crochet was
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: leading the pack again, Asia theme here. if you like
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: someone a little bit deeper down the board or a
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: few people deeper down the board, often the top person
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: might get hurt.
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: And that's where the value is. And that's why we're
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: always looking for the value with futures. So crochet got hurt.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: He was at plus 400. Cole Reagan's got hurt. He
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: was second here. Plus 1100.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: And it was freed and Hunter Brown were plus 1400.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: From her was plus 2200. Dylan cease was plus 3000.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Cam Schlittler started the season at plus 4,500. So if
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: you had Cam Schlittler to start the season, you are,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: you were making some dough and Parker Messick wasn't on
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: the board initially. Then on the 16th of April, they
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: put them on the board at plus 10,000. He ends
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: up finishing third. So there's value when we say there's value,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: there's value.
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: And pitching, this is the hardest one to predict because
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: you don't know who's going to miss time. You know, if, if,
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: if crochet is healthy, he's got a shot, right? But
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: none of these guys, a lot of these guys weren't healthy.
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: Hunter Brown wasn't healthy. Fromber was Cole. Reagan's wasn't healthy.
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: Freed was freed, missed time with an elbow. Remember? Fromber
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: just stunk. He wasn't just running very good this year
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: at times. Yeah, there's value in pitching. You just got
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: to figure out who's not going to get hurt. If
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: you can do that, you can make a lot of money,
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: but it's not very easy to figure out in the
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: pitching world today who's going to make all their starts,
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: except Dylan Cease usually. Dylan Cease is the one guy
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: that usually makes his starts. He was in it right
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: until probably the beginning of September. That's when I think
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: Schlittler kind of separated from that two-horse race there, but
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: Parker Messick Coming out at plus 10,000. They didn't even
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: have him on the board until April 16th. And he
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: finishes top three.
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: That's epic. So next year, who is it going to be?
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: Is going to be the great question. I love putting
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: these features down.
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: Me too.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: It's one of my favorite exercises to do. That plus, yeah, wins.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: We like to do win totals. So we'll do those
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: when we get closer.
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: Oh, we crushed those this year.
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: We crushed them.
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: Going to get a new car because of those win totals.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: I think that's our most impressive play, is looking at
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: the season and saying, they're really off here, right? Anyway,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: we'll do that when we get closer to the beginning
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: of the season, whenever that is.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: Okay, football for BetMGM.
• 28:35
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