Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Need a Bounce Back | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/26/26

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Sunday BEST BETS | Need a Bounce Back | NBA Playoffs & NHL Playoffs & MLB | 4/26/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with bookends
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browins hat man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: with the bruins arch epe is that what it is?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's March ninth, I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this I
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: To the slump yesterdays, the slump discontinus, the slump continues.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you, toadstool Sports.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: It is Sunday, April twenty sixth. Not a great day
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: yesterday on the show two and two. But of course
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: one of the losses was one of those beefy favorites,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: so it was a losing day yesterday. Uh. Seattle got there,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: I guess kind of luckily, but and Brian wu was
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: just awful in that game, like that really really hurt.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Like that was part of the handicap. You did not
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: expect Brian Woo to have his worst game of his
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: career against a mediocre at best lineup in a pitcher
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: friendly park that made no sense. Seattle's offense definitely showed
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: up to the party. And the good thing is we
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: had Seattle's bullpen in the back pocket there as part
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: of that handicap. They have the better bullpen, so that's
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: how they won. We got it done with a very
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: high scoring game. The White Sox could not get it done.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: They were down two to nothing at the end of
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: the fifth inning. They just could not score. Dude, No,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Schultz was fine, but White Sox not being able to
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: touch Jake Gervin. I don't know what to tell you, man. Yeah,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: that was just yeah, what can you do about it?
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: The first game of the day, we got right with
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: the NBA getting us to three in a row, correct
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: in the NBA playoffs with the over in Piston's magic
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: that hit. It went over the higher numbers too, So
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: if you played it at two fourteen and a half whatever,
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: two fifteen, still got it right. I think it landed
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: two eighteen, So everybody can be happy about that one.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: And then I don't know what to tell you about
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: the Nuggets. Due the Nuggets were looking pretty good. They're
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: winning the majority of the game. Like there, It was
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: not a huge lead, but they were winning into the
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: second half, into the third quarter. They had like the
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: worst fourth quarter that maybe you'll ever see. I don't
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: know what that was. There was just a complete implosion
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: from Denver in the fourth quarter. I don't know if
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: it's yeah, is Jokic's too old now? Is he getting
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: tired at the end of games. Do they need to
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: manage the players a little bit differently, manage their rest differently,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: and make sure that he's fresh when the game really matters.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Denver has some real problems playing against Minnesota. Dude.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Although I expected this series to be close, I thought
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: it could be like a seven game series. I expected
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Denver to come out of it. That's not gonna happen now.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: I don't think Denver's gonna come back from down three
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: to one. I don't think they're gonna win the roma
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: any three games. I think they might win the next game,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I dude, it's not looking very good. I
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, in Minnesota, they're They're definitely an underseeded
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: six seed though I will tell you that. But yeah,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: that the Western Conference, dude, I don't know. Man, I
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: don't see anybody getting by Oklahoma City. I do not. Yeah,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: it's the way that it is. I thought it was
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: a really good spot to grab Denver there. I'm not
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: happy I lost money on it, but we're gonna move
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: on to today. I'm trying to be selective. I got
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: one play in each sport today, being really selective in baseball.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: I do not love the baseball board at all. We're
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: gonna talk about it all. Let's try to get get
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: some wins. Hindiing, what's up? Thanks for hanging out, Kyle,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. Everybody. What's up. Let's get into it, man.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: I don't want to have this video take too long,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: but we have a lot of baseball. There's a little
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: bit of extra baseball because there is a double header
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: because of the rain out yesterday, Boston at Baltimore. My
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Boston Red Sox. Oh boy, what do we gotta say
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: about the Red Sox here? Man? They scored more runs
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: yesterday than they had scored on the entire season. I
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: don't even think I think that's actually true. They won
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: seventeen to one yesterday, so hey, Garrett Crochet gave them
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: a good start. They got the win, But like, could
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: you disperse those runs out across the season a little bit?
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Why do you have to score more runs than you've
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: scored all season in one fucking game and you get
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: one win out of it. Whatever. Now, I don't like
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: to play on teams that won seventeen to one. I
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: do not like to play on them. In the next game.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: But there are some reasons to maybe like the Red Sox.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Here one is they just broke a losing streak, and
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: you know, I talk about that when a team ends
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: a losing streak, that momentum can carry over. But of
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: course the big news is the Red Sox fired Alex Korra.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Finally they listen to me. He should have been gone
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: years ago. Cora is gone. They fired like the hitting coach,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: I think, a couple of hitting coaches. They reassigned Jason Verattak,
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: so he's not gonna be the whatever he was, the
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: dugout coach anymore, bench coach, whatever the hell. Yeah, this
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: is gonna be very, very interesting. They kept Andrew Bailey,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: which I did not love, but that's because he's Craig
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Breslo's guy, and I think he was. I don't know.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: They pitched together, probably when they were in the majors,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but Bailey is still there. I don't
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: love that. But obviously the Red Sox fundamentals and hitting
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: have been a major problem. And you know I talk
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: about this. When a team fires their coach or a manager,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: sometimes it'll fire the team up because maybe they don't
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: like the guy anymore. They're not playing well for him
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: and seem like Korra had no control over this team. Dude,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: you know, like the fundamentals have been so bad for years,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: and I keep saying that is a coaching issue. Get
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: rid of Koram. Stop you know, harping on the fact
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: that they won the twenty eighteen World Series with him
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: as manager. I don't care. They had, like an they
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: had an outstanding roster. It was stacked that year. And
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: this roster I don't think is that bad, and people
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: are saying that it's really bad. I disagree. We'll see
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: what happens. Man. So the Red Sox interesting and they're
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: bringing up all the Triple A guys. So Chad Tracy,
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: former Major League third baseman, is the Wu Socks manager,
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: or was the Wooster Red Sox manager formerly the Pass Socks.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Used to go to some of those Pass Socks games
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: back in the day man with my dad as a kid,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: because they were cheaper. But the stadium was fun to
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: go to, even though it was in a terrible area.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: The stadium was nice. The Wooster one, I think, is
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: also nice and in a terrible area. Anyway, what was
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: I about to say, yeah, So they brought up Chad Tracy.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be the interim manager, and they
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: brought up some of his other guys. And that might
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: not be a bad thing because the Red Sox have
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: a young core here and a lot of these guys
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: played on the Triple A team under those guys, so
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: they might have some chemistry with those guys already. So
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: I think this is you know, maybe it's not a
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: bad thing. Will that help the Red Sox here? I yeah,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know, dude. I think in the long run, yeah,
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I think they had to get rid of Kora. I
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: don't know what they're gonna do in the offseason. I
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: don't know if they could save this season. As far
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: as this actual matchup, though, I don't know how much
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I love it. Baltimore used three relief pitchers yesterday. Red
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Sox also used three. Red Sox do have the better
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I think they have the slightly better bullpen. Baltimore's bullpen
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: era is definitely worse, although their whip is better. They're
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: both in the top seven in bullpen whip. But I
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: think the Red Sox do have a slightly better bullpen
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: at the very least Baltimore has the better offense. They're
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: ninth right now in ops. Red Sox, even after yesterday's explosion,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: are still twenty seventh, which is ridiculous. Starting pitching Connolly
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: or early pitching for the Red Sox, he's had an
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: issue with walks. He's been pretty good otherwise. Definitely a
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: talented young pitcher and knows how to locate his pitches.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: He relies on command. He doesn't like overpower guys with
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: his fastball two point eight to eight ERA one point
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: three to two whip. That whip is a little bit
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: too high, and again it's because too many walks, multiple
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: walks in every outing. He's got to settle that down
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But he has only allowed more than
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: the tour in runs once in his last outing against
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: the Yankees, who are a very good offense. Twenty four
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: to thirteen strike out walk ratio, though that's the problem,
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: the walks or the problem. Got to get that number down.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Twenty hits a lot in twenty five innings is good.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: He might pitch well. Baltimore's never seen him before, you know,
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: I talk about these young pitchers that are good offenses
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: that haven't seen them before. Sometimes don't do well against them,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: so he definitely could potentially pitch well here. Kyle Bradish
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the Orioles three point nine to six
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: ERA pretty good, but it's whip is very high one
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: point seven to six. But I think it's being skewed
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: to some extent. He well, maybe not really. Actually I'm
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: wrong about that. I thought he had one start where
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: he gave up a lot of base runners, but I'm
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: actually wrong about that. He's walked three guys apiece in
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: every outing except one. That's not a great sign. He's
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: definitely walking way too many guys. Strike out rate is
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: good twenty eight and twenty five innings, but thirty one
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: hits all out on top of thirteen walks. That's bad.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: So at least with Connolly Early, he's not that easy
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: to hit. Bradish has been giving up too many hits
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: and too many walks, so Early has definitely outpitched Bradish
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: this year. Bradish does have good numbers against the Red
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Sox in forty seven at bats, nineteen to two, strike
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio one ninety one, batting average allowed six
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: to ninety three ops. Yeah, I mean, I don't know
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: if I trust Bradish. But the money is coming in
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: on Baltimore, you know, I mean the argument for Baltimore,
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: most I think would be the bounce back after getting
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: blown out yesterday. But again, I gave you some situational
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: angles that do support the Red Sox breaking out of
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: the losing streak, the fired coach phenomenon. Fifty six percent
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: of tickets, eighty eight percent of the cash on Baltimore,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I might lean under in this game, and we didn't
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: see too much bullpend you suggesterday. Both starting pitchers seem
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: to have a little bit of a matchup advantage here
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: in my opinion, and I think they're both at least decent,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: even though I know Bradish is a little bit worrisome
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: some of these numbers even early. Yeah, the walk numbers
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: are definitely a concern here. But seventy six percent of
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the tickets and seventy percent of the cash on the
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: over total is low, and it's dropping for a reason.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: It's it's seven and a half headed lower than that,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: you know, it's that way for a reason. Under kind
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: of makes sense to me, especially after the Red Sox
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: having a massive offensive explosion. I'm not sure the offense
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: that's been so bad all year. Is just going to
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: continue hitting like that into another game, you know? So, yeah,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: I probably prefer under in that game if I was
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: gonna do anything with that. Yes, I am happy about
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: that Red Sox cleaning house. Josh, what's up?
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: Uh?
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Yes? Wait wait, waste all comeback? Magic? What are we
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: talking about? I don't know what we're talking about. You
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: had the Cubs yesterday. Who were the Cubs playing yesterday?
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: I don't even they were playing the Phillies. No, Phillies
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: are playing Atlanta? Who oh, Cubs against the Dodgers, right,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: what was the I don't remember. What was the pitching
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: matchup in that game? I don't remember, I don't I
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: don't know what I had to say about that game.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: I don't remember at all. Yeah, I would not have
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: put my money on Colin Ray. I would not have
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: had my money on that guy. No way. Seven and
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: one is a good run though. All Right, Philadelphia is
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: at Atlanta and Philadelphia finally won yesterday. So again I'm
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: gonna point out, well, first of all, Zach Wheeler being
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: back in the rotation is definitely gonna help them. I
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: haven't looked at his pitching line in that game, but
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: they won the game. At the very least, they ended
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: a losing streak. And just like with the Mets, these long,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: long losing streaks, when a team ends that losing streak,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: it gives them new momentum coming into the next game.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: It is a positive because you finally break out, you know,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: you finally get that monkey off your back. It happened
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: with the Mets. They won a second game after they
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: ended the losing streak. Philadelphia definitely has the ability to
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: do that here. So they have a little bit of
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: momentum here. But the matchup, We're gonna look at that
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: matchup here, it doesn't look that good for them. Philadelphia
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: used most of their relief pitchers yesterday. They used five
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: and their bullpen is kind of questionable, so that's not
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: a good sign. Atlanta only used three. And Atlanta has
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: had one of the best bullpens in baseball this year.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: I think they're probably not quite the best. I think
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: and San Diego is are better, but Atlanta is up there.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Their number one in whip right now. Philadelphia is eighteenth,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: and they have like a mid fours era. Atlanta definitely
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: has a better bullpen and it's more rested. Atlanta's been
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: the better hitting team this year too, at third in ops,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: so the Philadelphia and third worst. I mean, really, I
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: think Philadelphia is not going to wind up that bad offensively.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna wind up at least a mediocre offense.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Problem with Philadelphia though, even though yes they might have
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: momentum off of finally getting a win, they got to
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Anola pitching, and he's a little bit of a concern
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: I think. I mean, he's he had that Tommy John
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: surgery kind of later in his career, didn't really pitch
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: that well last year, started pitching better at the end
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: of the year. Numbers this year not very good. Five
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: point oh six ERA, one point four to six whip.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Last outing was pretty bad at the Cubs, didn't last
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: five innings to give up five and runs four walks. Now,
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: the good news the Cubs are a good offense, and
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: he was facing them a second start in a row,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: so they were very familiar with them. So you might
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: be able to say, yeah, maybe we could give him
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a pass for some of those
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: numbers there. His overall numbers don't look that bad to me.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Twenty nine to ten strike out walk ratio. It is
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: too many walks, twenty nine hits allowed in twenty sixty
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: to two thirds innings. It's too many, but it's not
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: like it's not horrible to me. Against the Braves, though
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: he does not have very good numbers, they've seen a
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: ton of him. Three hundred thirty eight at bats, eighty
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: eight to twenty seven strike out walk ratio two ninety average,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: eight ninety nine ohps allowed, So that I don't like
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: that obviously, that Nola is very familiar to the Cubs,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: even when he was in the better stages of his
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: career or as soon as the Braves. Even when Nola
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: was at the better stages of his career, these Braves
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: hitters were able to hit him. So that's not a
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: great sign. And it's probably a worse sign that he
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: has to face Chris Ale here because Chris Sale is
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: still pitching at a very high level. Two point seven
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: to ninety ra one whip this year, twenty nine to
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: seven strike out walk ratio twenty two innings, twenty two
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: hits allowed in twenty nine innings. Yeah, this is good
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: stuff from Sale here, except for five home runs allowed.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: But he's only had one bad outing against Anaheim on
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: the road, and if you throw that out, he's been
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: really good at home, but all of his other starts
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: besides then Anaheim one, he's allowed one or zero earned runs.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: That's some good stuff. But he did just face Philadelphia,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: so Philadelphia is familiar with then he faced them in
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: his last start. He did really well on the road.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Seven innings, one earn run, seven strikeouts, one walk, five
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: hits allowed. He doesn't need to be quite that good
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: here to get the win, obviously, or for his team
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: to win. His numbers against Philadelphia are good overall, Like
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is familiar with them, So I don't know that
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: the fact they just played against them that's gonna help
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: them that much. Ninety three at bats, thirty four to
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: five strike out walk ratio against them, two thirty seven
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed, six sixty three ops. Yeah, these are
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: good numbers for sale. Uh did Nola just face the
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Braves too? Hold on, let me see he didn't, right, Yeah,
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: So I guess that's a little bit of an edge maybe,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: But really, again, it doesn't matter when you're talking about
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: these two pitchers that have been around for so long,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: and the hitters have all seen these guys before, So
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think the fact that Sale just faced Philadelphia
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: really matters that much. Yeah, I mean I probably lean
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: Atlanta here, but they're laying minus one seventy nine, eighty
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets ninety seven percent of the cash
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: on Atlanta. I know Philadelphia does have that new momentum
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: having breakn the having broken the losing streak. Both teams
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: probably are gonna want to try to win this game though,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: because they've split the series so far. So this is
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: to win the series. Uh, eighty three percent of tickets,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: ninety seven percent of the cash on Atlanta. They're definitely
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: which worries me. But you know you could lay a
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: minus one run line on that. I guess, uh, maybe
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: that's the way I would lean. Sale does seem to
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: still have a pretty decent matchup bet you there, but
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: not gonna be on my card for sure, I would
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: I would not put that on my card personally. Cleveland
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: at Toronto, these teams have split the series as well,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: so this is to win the series. Toronto won the
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: game yesterday. As far as the bullpen usage, Toronto used
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: three relievers. Neither of these bullpens are really that good
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: this year either, Even though Cleveland's was actually pretty good
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: last year, despite losing a couple of their guys to
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: gambling and I forget what else, including their closer. Cleveland
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: used three relief pitchers yesterday as well. The bullpens haven't
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: really been that great though. Cleveland is thirteenth and Whip.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Their ERA is really bad. It's in the high fours.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Toronto's is in the mid dive force, seventeenth and WHIP.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: I can't really trust these bullpens here. The hitting hasn't
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: been that great on either side really either. The Blue
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Jays has started to come around a little bit. Seventeenth
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: right now and hitting as far as ops, Cleveland twentieth.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Not expected to have a really good offense from Cleveland
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: this year. Slay Chacone is pitching for Cleveland. He has
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: struggled this year. Six point two ERA, one point five
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: to eight WHIP. That's not good. Way too many walks,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: twenty to twelve strike at walk ratio, five home runs allowed,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: twenty seven hits allowed in twenty four and two thirds innings.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Those are bad numbers. He just got rocked by Houston
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: in his last outing. Cleveland has lost all five of
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: his outings this season. Yeah, I mean, it's tough to
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: back a guy like this man, even though I think
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: he's not as bad as these numbers look right now.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: I think he does have room for improvement. But right
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: now I would not want to back him. The good
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: news is Toronto only is one hitter has ever seen
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: it before, Lennon Sosa, but he has won for five
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: of the home run off him and a strike. But
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: Chacone is unfamiliar to Toronto, so that might be a
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: little bit of an advantage to him because they have
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: to figure him out. He is going up against Patrick Korban,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: who you know. I thought Patrick Corban's career was over
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: a couple of years ago, and then Texas kind of
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: resurrected him a little bit, and he pitched well for
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: most of the season last year, started falling off at
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: the end of the year. He's actually done well with
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Toronto this year. I it is so hard for me
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: to figure out KORbin, dude, because at one point it
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: looks like this guy's career should have been over three
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: years ago, and then he'll be pitching well in the
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: next scam. How do you figure this guy out? I
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: have no idea. This year he has a three point
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: six eighty RA, one point zero nine whip. These are
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: good numbers. I mean, he had one kind of bad
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: start in his first starting against Minnesota, and then he
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: had two pretty good starts after that. Not really going
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: deep into games though, has not made it six innings
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: in any of them. But overall his numbers are fine
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: twelve to four strike at walk ratio, twelve hits allowed
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: in fourteen to two thirs innings. But he is Patrick Korban,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: so he is liable to have a bad game at
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: any point. I don't know if it's gonna happen here.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, Cleveland doesn't have a great offense. His numbers
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: against them are mediocre. In eighty three at bats, nineteen
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: to ten strike at walk ratio. That's too many walks obviously,
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty two fifty three batting average allowed,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: eight fifteen ops. The OPS is high, but if you
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: look into the numbers, really it's Reese Hoskins does all
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: the damage against him, eleven for thirty six with four
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: home runs and four walks against him, and also ten
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: strikeouts and four doubles. So if he's able to pitch
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: around Hoskins, he might pitch fine, here Hoskins possible player
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: prop potential there if you want him. I want nothing
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: to do with this game, man. I mean, looking at
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: this starting pitching matchup and plus the bad bullpens, my
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: feeling on this game was over. But the money is
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: not really agreeing with that. The total flip to eight
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: and a half juice to the under, seventy nine percent
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: of tickets, sixty three percent of the cash on the over,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: so the money is indicating on the under. I don't
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: really think I agree. I don't know. The game seems
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: over ish to me. Don't really trust either starting pitcher,
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: like I don't personally, I would not trust them to
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: be my friends. Man. No, Toronto is a minus one
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: thirty one favorite, sixty nine percent of tickets, ninety six
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. So the money is
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: indicating on Toronto. I could see that. I mean, Corman
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: is in the better form over CHACONI right now. I mean,
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know. The bullpens are a bit of a wash.
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: I don't have a good feel for the game though.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: It's one of those games where they're just I don't know.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: I think too many things going around in my head,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: like how is this game gonna go Colorado at the
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: Mets have to play a doubleheader, and Colorado won the
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: first game two days ago, so the Mets their win
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: streak did not last long. They won two games and
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: then they became the Mets again. But the Mets are
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: clearly the better team, and they have a really, really
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: advantageous pitching matchup in this first game, which is not
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: going to be the pitching matchup that was supposed to
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: happen yesterday. So Kintana was supposed to pay Senga yesterday.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Kintana is gonna pitch in game one today and Senga
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: is pitching Game two tonight, so they've been split up,
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: which happens a lot. Got to keep them separated. Anyway,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: this pitching matchup is really, really, I think beneficial to
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: the Mets here. I'm gonna talk about it in a minute.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, not entirely, but I do think it is.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: The Mets might be in bounced back mode here because
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: nobody wants to lose to the Colorado Rockies, Mets being
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: the better team having lost the previous game, you know
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: there is something to be said for that. And now,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: because both teams didn't play yesterday, the bullpens have rest
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: because they didn't have to pitch yesterday, so that is
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a factor. Both bullpens have been mediocre.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: I would say the Mets are fifteenth, Colorado eleventh somehow
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: in bullpen whipp although I kind of think the Mets
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: sort of have the better bullpen, But I don't know, man,
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: because they got a couple of those Yankees arms from
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: last year, and Devin Williams like those guys. He's not good, dude,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. But the Rockies, I think their
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: bullpen is going to take a step back at some
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: point too. Maybe we just don't trust either bullpen fully here.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: The Rockies have had the better offense. The Mets offense
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: is still ranked last in OPS. They've been really really struggling,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: but again they have had Soto back for I don't know,
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: three or four games now. Rockies are at eleventh, but
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: I think their offense is going to kind of fall
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: off a little bit. They are better at home as well,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: and that's not where they are here. Jose Kintana, pitching
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: for the Rockies not having a good season. Man, He's
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: he's remained effective over the last couple of years, which
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: is he has stuck in the league. Like he's a
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: veteran pitcher. He's never been a guy that like relies
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: on blowing guys away. That almost sounded bad, but you know,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: he's like a command pitcher, tries to get guys to
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: hit soft contact. He might get a little bit better
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: than this because his recent seasons he's had okay numbers
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: six point two to three ERA though one point eight
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: to five WHIP. He's definitely struggling this year. The strikeout
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is really bad four to nine. I know
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: he's not a strikeout guy, but nine walks in fifteen
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: hits a lout in thirteen innings, that's not gonna cut it.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: And the Rockies have lost all three of his games
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: so far in two of them have been away from
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: course field. But he did face Miami, Houston, the Dodgers.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: All those teams have actually hit well this year. You
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: know who's not hitting well is the New York Mets.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: So this is actually gonna be probably the weakest offense
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: that he's facing. His numbers are actually pretty good against
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: the metsal they'll remember this is some of this is
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: from earlier in his career seventy eight at bats sixteen
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: to seven strike out walk ratio is not very impressive,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: but again, he doesn't strike many guys out two forty
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: four batting average, six to fifty two oh ps. Those
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: numbers are not bad, so it is possibly he does
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: actually pitch a little bit better here. The problem is
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: he's going up against Nolan McLain, who I think might
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: be the Mets' best starting pitcher. I mean he I
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: think he is. Who else would it be? Even though
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: he's he was a rookie last year and didn't even
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: pitch a full season last year. He's been really good though.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: Two point six seventy ra point seven to six win
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: this year. Ten strikeouts in his last outing, in addition
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: to eight in each of the prior to starts, and
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: he was facing you know, Arizona the Dodgers in a
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: couple of those outings. He hasn't a lot more than
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: three e runs in any outing, thirty eight to eight
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio, and only fifteen hits a lout in
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: thirteen to third innings. Yeah, this guy, I'm pretty sure
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: he's the real deal. Man. These numbers are really good.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Uh yeah, his command is good. He's fooling major league
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: hitters not very hittable at all. What else can we say, man, McLain,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Here we go he and of course the Rockies have
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: never faced it before and they're having a hit away
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: from home, so he should do well here. Again, the
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: unfamiliarity should just boost him a little bit in this
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: game and give him a little bit of an extra advantage.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: I would not want to fade McLain here, Man, I
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: think the Mets should win this game. The problem is
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: their mine is two h seven, So how do you
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: really attack this? Ninety one percent of tickets, ninety eight
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Mets, you know, I
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, and the money seems to be kind
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: of indicating towards the under Believe it or not. The
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: totals it's seven and a half. Even though I don't
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: fully trust these bullpens, Kintana is getting some respect with
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: that total being at seven and a half. Part of
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: it might be because both offenses are really bad. I
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: don't know how much we can really trust Kintana though. Again,
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: he hasn't pitched well this year, but some of the
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: matchup stuff does indicate that he might do okay here.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: I think maybe the better approach here is to actually
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: go Rockies under their team total, because I think the
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: more predictable part of this is that McClain should go
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: out there and do well man and uh save the day.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: That that is that's a die hard reference, right? Am
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: I losing my mind? John McClain McClain, Yes, I think
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: it's yeah. Maybe maybe other Mets will not die hard
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: in this game. I don't know, Man, it would be
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: It would be hilarious if there was a Japanese pitcher
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: named Nakotomi and he had to go up against McClain,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: that would be pretty awesome anyway, Or if he went
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: up against a pitcher named Gruber. Anyway, I'm I'm losing
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: my mind here, But yes, I would say maybe Colorado
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: under their team total makes some sense. Oh, you're gonna
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: need them to be hew to a really low total though,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: like maybe two, and you're gonna need the Mets bullpend
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: to keep that attack. Somehow, it seems a little bit
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: risky to me. I guess you could go Mets, you know,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: run line here, but you have to lay minus one
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: and a half with a low total, and the professionals
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: will tell you, you know, you shouldn't really do that
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: because the home team might not bat in the ninth inning.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: You know, I mean, I've done it before, I've done
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: it this year, I do. I use it very sparingly,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: though I don't think I would want to use it
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: here in a game with a low total like this,
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: but I think the Mets should win the game. I
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: hate parlays, but again, if you want a moneyline, parlay
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: the Mets with something that makes sense to me as well.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Detroit at Cincinnati. Oh, actually, hold on, let me I'll
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: talk about the other game in the doubleheader, because it's
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: really hard to figure it out because we don't know
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: who Colorado is gonna have starting the game, and we
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: don't know what the bullpens are gonna be like, right,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: So it's really hard to gauge these game twos in
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: the morning. You know, a lot of it's gonna depend
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: on the bullpen usage from the first game. Although generally
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: you can kind of say, yeah, these bullpens might be
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: a little bit tired in this game, or some of
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: the better relievers might not be available. You can kind
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: of guess that that might be the case. But it's
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a guessing game. Colorado. We don't
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: know who's starting for them unless they listed it, No,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: they did not, But the Mets are minus one seventy
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: five here. Total is seven and a half in this game,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: you know what seven and a half? Like I would
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: just if you want to have any action on this
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: game right now, like, if you're that much of a degenerate,
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: I would probably play this over. I mean, the bullpens
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: are not that trustworthy. We don't know what usage they're
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: gonna have, but it's gonna be something in the first game.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Whoever Colorado is gonna throw out there is probably not
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: gonna be good. And I don't think code I Senga
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: is that good. So I could see that total looks
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: way too low to me, Like you're telling me that
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: this total is the same as game one. Game one
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: is Nolan McLain on the mound, Dude, what are we
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: doing here? Senga has been awful this year eight point
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: eight three ERA one point nine whip. I mean, he's
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: not this bad, but he's definitely pretty questionable. Dude. He's
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: got a good strikeout rate twenty two strikeouts and seventeen
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: a third innings, but ten hits a lot or excusing
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: ten walks allowed really bad and twenty three hits really
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: bad stuff. Here, He's failed to make it five innings
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: in his last two outings, gotten absolutely blown up in
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: both of them at home against the A's and on
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: the road at Wrigley, which that might have been like
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: a wind blowing out Wrigley game. But still he's walked
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: multiple guys in every outing. I don't think I would
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: be able to trust him. His numbers against Colorado are
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: actually good, though, so you know that does counter that
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: a bit. They have thirty six at bats against some
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: fourteen strikeouts, five walks, one thirty nine average five to
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: seventy seven ops. So Senga does have good matchup numbers
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: at the very least. You know, I'm obviously i want
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: nothing to do with this game. I'm not going to
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: have anything on this game. But part of the reason
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: why the total is low though, is again both offenses
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: are just not good at least right now. Though again,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: I think the Mets are gonna start showing that their
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: offense is better than this at some point though, so
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: we will say, all right, we gotta keep it going.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Man half hour in and we were we've barely gotten
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: into this at all. Detroit at Cincinnati, these teams actually, sorry,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati's on the verge of a sweep. Cincinnati continues to
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: have a good record here, but dude, I still think
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati is gonna regress because they keep winning a lot
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: of close games in this series. One of the games
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: was close Yesterday was a blowout win for Cincinnati. Now,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: you know, I talk about this when a team is
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: trying to avoid the sweep, which in this case is Detroit,
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: and I think they're the better overall team. A lot
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: of times you want to look towards that team trying
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: to avoid the sweep, especially if they're the better team,
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: because they put they put in more motivation and you're
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: getting the better team more motivated. I don't really see
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati looking ahead to the Rockies next to them, so,
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: you know, not really a look ahead spot for them here.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: Bullpen usage Cincinnati did use a lot. They used well,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: they use four relief pitchers. They didn't use them for
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: that many pitches though, so I guess theoretically some of
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: them might still be available here. Detroit had some heavy
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: usage yesterday four relief pitchers, with more pitches being thrown
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: from them. Detroit also has not really been good out
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: of the bullpen this year. They're twenty six than bullpen
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: whip and they're eras in the mid fours. I think
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: they're not quite as bad as these bullpens that are
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: surrounding them yere, but they have not been a very
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: good bullpen. The Reds have had one of the best
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: bullpen eras. They have the best bullpen eray. Somehow, I
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: don't think they're the best bullpen. They're twelveth in WHIP,
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: but I think they're at least a mediocre bullpen and
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: probably the better of the two. Detroit does have the
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: better offense. The Reds have struggled offensively. They're at twenty
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: fifth Detroit is sixth. So yeah, Detroit definitely has the
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: better hitting. Keeter Montero is pitching for Detroit. He's actually
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: been pretty good this year three point six eighty R
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: point nine to one whip. You know. I mean, he's
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: a guy that a lot of times they would have
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: an opener open in front of him and whatever, but
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: they seem to kind of just be using him as
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: a starter. Now. I think I think he has I
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: would have to dive in, but I think he has
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: actually just started most of these games this year, and
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: he's pitched fine. He's allowed four fewer runs in every outing,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: eighteen to three strikeout walk ratio, good command, seventeen hits
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: all out in twenty two innings. Yeah, these numbers are
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: pretty good, dude. He's not bad going against the Reds though.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: They only have fifteen at bats against him, two strikeouts,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: no walks, but they have hit four hundred off him
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: twelve hundred ops. Dal La Cruz and Friedo both of
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: home runs off him. Fradal However, your pronounce, isn't it
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: Frado Dredel? Yeah? I mean, I don't know how much
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: weight to really put into this though, because it's such
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: a small sample size and Kiter Montero that couldn't you
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: know that was earlier in his career. He is starting
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: to pitch a bit better now, so I think he
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: certainly is capable of pitching well here. It is a
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly ballpark. Though Rhet Louder is pitching for Cincinnati.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: He's done pretty well this year three point one ERA,
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: one point one four whip eighteen and nine strike out
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. Is a little bit of a concern though,
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: really it's just that he doesn't strike out that many
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: guys though, even though the way that he looks you
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: think he would be a strikeout guy, but he's not.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: So the walk number isn't really that bad. The strikeout
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: rate is low, but he's also only allowed twenty four
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: hits in twenty nine innings, so he hasn't been very
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: hittable in The Reds have won four of his five outings,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: and he has never been seen before by Detroit, so
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: he has the unfamiliarity edge against Detroit. There interesting match
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: up here, so that, yeah, that might give them a
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: little bit of an extra edge. I'm looking at the
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: market here. Where are we looking? It's an interleague game here,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: it is. The money is hitting Detroit pretty heavily. It
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: looks like Cincinnati's at minus one o eight sixty nine
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on them, eighty five percent of
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: the cash on Detroit. So the money likes Detroit. I
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: don't really disagree. I mean, again, the motivation to avoid
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: the sweep plus the better hitting where you know, I
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: think the starting pitching. I don't love the Montero matchup numbers,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: but you could make the argument the starting pitching is
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: it could be a duel, let's say, and then in
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: the bullpens. Yeah. I don't like Detroit in the bullpen though,
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: so that makes it a little bit more difficult. You know,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: you could go first five with Detroit here, but I
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: don't really know how much of an edge the starting
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup really is for them, So I don't know.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Maybe if you played Detroit you do go full game
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: just because it's a motivated spot. I think I kind
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: of like the first five under in this game kind
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: of makes sense to me. I know it's a hitter
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: friendly ballpark. Montero if he matchup numbers, but he could
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: do well here. He's pitching well this year. Louder Is
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: pitched fine this year as well and is unfamiliar to Detroit.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Full game total is at nine. I don't like the
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: bullpens really, but first five under makes some sense to me.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: But we have seventy six percent of tickets and eighty
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on the over. Obviously, it's
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: a game I'm avoid. I've won baseball play all day, man,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: so yeah, and that's not it. Minnesota at Tampa Bay.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is trying to get a sweet peer as well,
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: and they actually won a series at Minnesota earlier this
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: year as well. They won two out of three in
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: that one. They've won two out of three in this series.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's offense has gone silent in this series, but maybe
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: they'll show up to try to avoid the sweep. Like
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: I said, I generally lean towards teams trying to avoid
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: a sweep. Tampa Bay does of Cleveland next. I don't
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: know if they're gonna look ahead to that, but Cleveland
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: is leading the Central Division right now in the AL.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: I still think Detroit's gonna win that division though, and
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: it's not really a great division overall. But maybe Tampa
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: will look ahead at this point and take Minnesota a
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: little bit more lightly here. Bullpen usage, Tampa Bay used
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: three guys yesterday. Minnesota also used three. Both bullpens have
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: struggled this year in Minnesota twenty seventh and Whip, Tampa
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: has actually been starting to get a little bit better,
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: even though their bullpen era is worse. They're at twentieth
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: than Whip now based on last year, I do think
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay probably does have a better bullpen than Minnesota.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: I don't like Minnesota's bullpen. Both offenses I think have
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: kind of overperformed to start the season. Tampa is sitting
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: ninth in ops though, so I don't know how real
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: that really is. But they've hit pretty well this year.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: Minnesota has fallen to eighteenth. I guess probably you do
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: give Tampa a little bit of a hitting at year.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: I think they're generally the better team, but in a
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: spot like this, I don't know man, and they don't
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: have one of their better pitchers on the mound here either.
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: I don't think Minnesota has Simeon Woods Richardson pitching. His
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: numbers are not very good this year. Five point nine
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: to six ERA, one point five to six whip, thirteen
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: to ten strikeout walk race year. That's not gonna cut it.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: It's a really low strikeout rate in five and two
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: thirds innings, thirty hits a lot, that's too many hits,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: five home runs as well, one in every outing. Not
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: looking good, and he did face Tampa Bay, but he
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: actually did well in that outing. But overall he doesn't
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: strike out many guys, with the walk numbers too high
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: based on what we've seen on him in the last couple
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: of seasons, though he definitely has pitched better than this
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: the last couple of seasons he's been like an okay
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: pitcher to have, you know, like last in your rotation
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: or something like that, so I don't think he's quite
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: this bad. His starting against Tampa Bay was his bet
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: start of the season. I went six and two thirds,
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: gave up one and run in that outing, and then
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: the bullpen failed them and they lost that game anyway,
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: So he might be able to pitch well against Tampa
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Forty five at bats against them, eight to three, strike
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio, two twenty two average allowed, and six
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: seventy one oh ps. Those numbers are pretty good, so
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: he is definitely capable of pitching well. Here. Schultens is
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: pitching for Tampa Bay. Jesse Schulten's I think he's like
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: a converted reliever. His numbers do look good two point
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: nine to three RA, point nine to eight WHIP. I
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: don't trust him though. He's probably not gonna go that
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: deep into this game. He did have two scoreless outings
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: to start this season against the Cubs, which is impressive.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: Against the White Sox not so much. Then, he gave
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: up five and runs last outing against Cincinnati, but six
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: zero strike out walk ratio was actually good overall, thirteen
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: to three is a pretty good ratio. Twelve hits allowed
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: in fifteen to thirty in he's he's pitched effectively, but
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: you look at his numbers over his career, he's only
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: pitched a little bit in the majors, even though he's
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: in his thirties. He was kind. He was a starter
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: for half the season for the White Sox in twenty
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: twenty three. Things didn't go well, and then he was
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: on Tampa last year very briefly, things didn't go well.
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: I don't really trust this guy. I just don't. Numbers
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: against Minnesota are pretty bad, but very small sample size,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: way too small to gauge anything. Really eight at bats,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: but they have a five hundred average off in fifteen
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: to eleven oh ps one to three strike out walk ratio.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: Royce Lewis has a home run off him. Yeah, I mean,
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: I think Woods Richardson, believe it or not, is actually
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: probably the more trustworthy of these two guys, even though
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: his numbers don't look that way. The money is hitting
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, I don't agree with that. I think I
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: would lean to Minnesota to try to avoid the sweep
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: per UH seventy two percent tickets ninety seven percent of
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in on Tampa. Though they're up for
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty five to minus one forty seven. They're
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: the better team. Like I said, but this is not
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: a pitching matchup. I would not want to lay a
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: price like that. With Schulten's on the mound getting a
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: price like that and no thanks, Minnesota, maybe motivated try
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: to avoid the sweep. I would lean that way. Maybe
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: still full game because both bullpens still kind of sucks,
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: so that might be what I would do. Mister Pinsey,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out Yankees at Houston. Houston
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: is also trying to avoid a sweep peer they've gotten
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: blown out in the series. Houston's pitching is absolutely horrible.
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: I believe I leaned over yesterday and that did hit
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: for anybody that wanted that Houston might show up for
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: this game. The question is who are the Yankees playing next?
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: Are they gonna be looking ahead? They might overlook Houston
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: anyway because they're on the version of sweep. They're playing
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Texas next. Texas I think is a pretty solid team.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: They're a good pitching team. They're eating their division in
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: the AL West right now, So yeah, I guess maybe
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: it's possible the Yankees do overlook Houston here have bent
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: and look ahead situation. I think does favor Houston a
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: little bit. The matchup doesn't really Houston's absolutely awful bullpen
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: used five guys yesterday. That's not good. They're probably eating
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: five guys, to be honest. The way that they're pitching.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Something is not going well over there. Yankees bullpen isn't
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: really that good either, and they used four guys yesterday.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: But Houston's bullpen is horrible. They're the worst in WHIP
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: and in the RA, worst in the league, horrible, worst
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball. Yankees are you know, okay, they're
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: at nineteenth, probably a little bit better than last year.
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: Let's say in the bullpen, both teams can hit their
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: fourth and fifth astros Yankees respectively. Yankees probably do have
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: the better offense, so Houston definitely has hit well this year.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Luis Heel is pitching for the Yankees. He's been fine
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: so far in a couple of starts four point one
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: one ERA, one point one seven WHIP. His walks are
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: always very concerning, though he his strikeout rate is down too.
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: Like he's a guy that usually strikes a lot of
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: guys out and walks way too many guys this year.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: His strikeout rate is down so far, so that is
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: a concern. Nine to eight strike out walk ratio, ten
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: hits allowed in fifteen to third innings is good, but
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: the rest of these numbers not great. And his only
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: decent outing really was against the Red Sox, and the
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have historically not been able to hit him,
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: and their hitting has been awful this year. Heal does
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: have good numbers against study Astros too, though, in twenty
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: eight at bats thirteen to three strike out walk ratio
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: one seventy nine average allowed four to seventy two oh ps,
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: So he might actually pitch well. Here. He is going
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: up against Spencer Arraghetti, who has a two point four
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: or five ERA. You might think that looks good, but
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: one point four or five whip that is definitely not good.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: He's walking too many guys. He's only made two starts
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: so far. He's allowed only three runs and eleven innings
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: eight hits. That's all good, but and thirteen strikeouts is
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: good too, but eight walks four walks apiece, and those
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: were games at home against Colorado and at Cleveland. Those
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: are not super powered offenses, man, and now he's having
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: to go up against a good Yankee offense might not
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: go too well. His numbers against the Yankees very small
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: sample size thirteen at bats, but the numbers are not
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: very good, except for the six to one strike out
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, which is good, three to zero, eight batting
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: average allowed, twelve eighty ops. Stanton and Judge both have
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: a home run off him. I can't do it. I
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: can't back Houston here, man. I think they have the
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: lesser of the starting pitchers, they have the lesser offense,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: they have the lesser slightly, they have the lesser bullpen.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: The money is hitting the Yankees. I probably agree. Even
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: those situations I like taking that are trying to avoid
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: the sweep, I don't think I want to do it here.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: Yankees dropped for minus one forty five to minus one
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: thirty one seventy nine per tickets, ninety four percent of
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Yankees. The matchup numbers seem to
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: back it up a little bit too. I'd probably lean
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Yankees money line not on my car though, And in fact,
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: the next game is the one that is on my card,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: and we are going to take a team to avoid
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: a sweep here, because in this case, I think we
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: actually are getting the better team at a pretty cheap price,
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: trying to avoid the sweep with the better starting pitcher
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: on the mound. We'll take Milwaukee minus one twenty here
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: man to finally get around and beat Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh having
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: a good season so far, and they're on the verge
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: of a sweep of Milwaukee. But I think Milwaukee's still
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: the better team, and I think we're getting a little
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: bit of a discount on the price here. I think
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: they can get it done, try to avoid the sweep here.
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: This is the end of the road trip for Pittsburgh.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: They had a big win over Milwaukee yesterday. They won
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: an extra innings. If you look at what happened in
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: these two games though, so they won an extra innings,
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: which you know, that means it was a close game yesterday.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: So they won six to three, but it could have
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: gone either way in the first game. Why did they win,
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, because Paul Skeen's was pitching. Well, Paul Skeen's
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: is not pitching today, so I think Milwaukee might be
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: getting a little bit overlooked here. Now I'm not gonna
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: say Pittsburgh is gonna overlook Milwaukee, but I think you're
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: gonna get a big effort out of Milwaukee, who I
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: still think is the better team. Pittsburgh, they're not really
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: gonna look ahead to Saint Louis, but I like the
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee I think we'll be extra motivated here and I
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: like the matchup for them as well. Looking at the
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: bullpen usage yesterday, Milwaukee, they did use four relief pitchers,
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: but a couple of them for single digit pitches. I'm
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: not too concerned about that. Even though they did use
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: a couple of their better relievers, they did not use
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: their closer. The last couple of days though in McGill Megill,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh used more of their bullpen. These five guys out
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: of the bullpen, I think they use some of their
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: high leverage arms too, So I think we're okay with
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: rolling with the bullpen here. Though. Pittsburgh has had the
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: better bullpen this year at fourteenth, but their era makes
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: them look better than they are three point twenty nine,
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: but with a one point three to four whip, their
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: bullpen is not as good as maybe it looks based
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: on the era. The Brewers haven't been good though, one
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: point eight whip, four point two to one ERA. But
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: you know, I think the bullpens there's not that much
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: of a disparity between the two, So I'm going with
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: the motivation. I think maybe the guys that had to
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: pitch for Pittsburgh yesterday hurts their bullpen a little bit
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: more here. Offensively, Pittsburgh has actually been the better offense
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: at fifteenth and the Brewers have been dealing with injuries
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: and they're way down at twenty six. But I think
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: you're gonna see that gap get closed at some point.
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: I do not think that the Pirates offense is significantly
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: better than the Brewers offense, even with the injuries. I
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: think it's close. So I think we're fine there. But
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: then we're looking at the starting pitching. Carmen Molotzinsky is
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Pirates. His ERA looks good three point
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: two eight, but his whip is one point four to two.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: He has okay numbers throughout his career, but he's always
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: kind of just been I think, like, you know, a
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: last guy in the rotation type of guy so far,
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: you know, kind of a guy that can come out
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: of the bullpen as well. I'm not too impressed by it.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: A couple of he's failed to go five innings in
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: the majority of his outings. Even though Pittsburgh won his
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: first four outings, he did not have a good one
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: in his last outing, and it was against Texas, who
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: is not a great offense, and that was in Texas,
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly ballpark. He got knocked around a bit
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: for five earned runs in that one in fewer than
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: five innings. Still had six strikeouts to two walks, though
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: his strikeout walk ratio is still not that good. Though
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: he's walked multiple guys in every outing in April twenty
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: six to ten strike out walk ratio, more than one
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: hit a lout per inning. Yeah, I mean, he's not horrible,
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: but he's not a great pitcher, you know. I think
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: we could definitely fade him. And Milwaukee has done okay
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: against him, not great, but okay in thirty one at
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: bats a seven to six strikeout walk ratio again, a
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: lot of walks, two ninety batting average that's pretty high.
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: But they haven't hit him for power, in fact, no
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: extra base hits, so they only have a six to
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: ninety six ops against him. But I still think with
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: the familiarity and the numbers here, I think we could
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: fade him, especially because we're gonna roll with Kyle Harrison,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: who was having a better season by a bit three
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: point oh sixy raven. Though I know his whip at
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: one point three is a little bit concerning, I agree,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: but he's at least kept his walks a little bit
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: more limited, walking multiple guys in only half of his outings.
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: And yes, I know his last two outings he failed
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: to go five innings. I know he was up against
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: Washington and Detroit, who have had a couple of the
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: better offenses in baseball, but he still actually did limit them,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: and they still won one of those games pretty easy
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: beause they had an offensive onslaught in one of the
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: games behind him. Overall, I mean, he has more than
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: one strike up per inning, fewer than one hit a
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: lot per inning, eighteen strikeouts to seven walks. The walks, yeah,
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: they're a little bit high, sixteen hits allowed in seventeen
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: to two thirds innings. But I think Harrison is a
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: pretty talented pitcher man, and he throws lefty, so he's
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit more difficult to pick up for hitters
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: that haven't seen him before. Pirates. Six of their guys
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: have faced him before, but it's a small sample size
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: sixteen at bats, but they have nine strikeouts against him,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: no walks, one eighty eight average, and four point thirty
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: eight ohps, So Harrison has pitched well against them in
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: that limited sample size. He's allowed one extra base hit
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: though a double from Mangham. But even so, I think
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Harrison does have the upper hand here. I think you're
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: gonna get a motivated Milwaukee team at home trying to
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: avoid the sweep. Pretty cheap price, in my opinion, it
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: minus won twenty seventy five percent of tickets, ninety four
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Milwaukee money seems to agree
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: with me. This is my one baseball play of the day.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: Let's get it going, man, because I did not like
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: the two and two yesterday. We're at thirty nine, seventeen
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: and four. Obviously this is a this is an unsustainable run.
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: But I'm trying to do it man, trying to be selective.
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: So yes, we'll be on the Brewers here. But you know,
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: full disclosure, I feel like I don't love the plays
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: that I have today. Washington at Chicago White Sox. This
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: is gonna be. This game is really difficult to handicap.
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: These teams will split the first two games of the series.
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: I think they will both show up to try to
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: win the series. Here. The White Sox unfortunately did lose yesterday.
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: We lost the first five inning play and they wound
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: up losing the game in the end as well. Washington
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: bad bullpen. Both these bullpens are bad. They used five
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers. Is that what it is? No? Four? Excuse me,
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: my stroke brain. I can't like, I don't know, I
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: can't like. I don't know. It's like when I see
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: characters like in a line or like a bunch of
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: rows in the table. I can't like see what, like
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: how many of them there are anymore? Man, I don't know.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: It's very weird. Harder to describe. White Sox used four
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday as well. I think I got that right.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: But either way, both bullpens are bad. So they're definitely
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: absolutely fade worthy bullpens. Both are in the bottom several
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: bullpens in like Whip and Era. I don't have to
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: go into it too much. Offensively, Washington's hit pretty well.
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: They're at seventh right now. Still White Sox have been
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: coming around a little bit, but they're still not a
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: great offense. They're twentieth. Washington definitely does have the better hitting.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: Foster Griffin is pitching for Washington, and I did not
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: expect much out of him man because he had not
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: much of a major league track record coming into the
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: season at thirty years old, that's usually not a good sign.
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: But he's been pretty effective for them. Three point three
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: eight ERA one point two whip. You can't really knock
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: what he's done so far here. He's allowed four or
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: fewer runs in every outing. Washington's won four of his
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: five outings he's faced the Dodgers in here. Actually did
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: pretty well in that game, even though they lost. The
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: bullpen actually lost the game in that one. Overall, twenty
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: two to eight strikeout walk ratio, it is too many walks.
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: It's not great, but not horrible. Five home runs is
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: kind of questionable. Twenty four hits a lot on twenty
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: six to two thirds innings is not that bad though,
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: So again, I don't think he's an excellent pitcher or anything,
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: but he's definitely been better than you would expect, and
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: he faced yeah Dodgers brewers, even though they have injuries.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: Phil Azelo. They have been hitting that well this year, Atlanta, Pittsburgh,
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: who's been better than people expected. You know, he's not
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: faced the weakest offenses, and the White Sox are pretty weak,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: and they never faced him before. So Griffin might actually
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of an advantage here against them
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: because they haven't seen him before. Brian Hudson is listed
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: as the starter. I hate this fucking Firefox dude, the split.
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: I fucking hate that shit. Hudson is a converted rule
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: or he's not even a converter reliever. He is a reliever.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: He's only gonna pitch one inning here. Man. He pitched
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: two days ago and two days prior to that, so
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: they're using him as an opener every other day. That's
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: the state of the White Sox right now. I knew
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: they were gonna use Fetti behind him in the last game.
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: Fetti won't pitch today though, because he pitched basically a
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: starters workload in that game. So I have no idea
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: who's gonna pitch behind Hudson here. All we know is
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: he's opening the game. He's gonna go one inning, and
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: then you're gonna get some mess of Chicago's pitching behind him.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: That doesn't look good to me at all. So I
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: think I have to lean to Washington yere. But the
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: money is not agreeing with me. The White Socks are
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: at minus one sixteen sixty seven percent of tickets, ninety
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on the White Sox. I
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: just don't see it. Man. Again, I think Griffin, we've
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: seen it. You know, he's pitched decent this year, and
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: again he has the unfamiliarity edge, and we're getting a
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: White Sox basically bullpen game here and again. Maybe I'm
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: too old school because I don't like the bullpen games,
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: but why would you when it's the White Sox bullpen
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: or whatever the hell they're gonna do in this game.
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: I have no clue what they're gonna do, but I
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: don't like it. So yeah, yeah, I don't know. I'm
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: gonna lean to Washington there, but I don't have that
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: strong of an opinion on it. Jaymaine, what's up? Burke?
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Is that? Right? Is he gonna? Is he gonna come
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: in after that? You know that? All right? Well? That
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: that makes me a little bit less, you know, that
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: makes me like Washington a little bit less to be honest,
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: if it is going to be Burke, he's pitched okay
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: this year. I mean he's not a great pitcher, but
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: he's listed is their number one start or actually Burke
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: has a four point one ERA one point two to whip. Yeah,
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: you might be right. He last pitched on the twenty first,
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: so that I think would make sense as far as
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: him being next up. He's done okay this year though,
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: that would give me a little bit of hesitation. H
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: Washington is like one for thirteen off in lifetime. That
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: one hit is a home run from Lyle nine to
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: one strike up walk ratio though oh seventy seven average
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: four to fifty one oh bs. So yeah, that's a
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: good call, Jay Man. If you're correct about that, then
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: that does make it look a bit better for the
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: White Sox if Burke is out there. He's not a
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: great pitcher or anything, but it looks like he's got
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: some matchup advantages there. He's pitched fine this year, so yeah,
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: that makes me like that a bit less man. So
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: good call there, and the money is is heavily coming
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: in on the under in that game. Even though when
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: I first looked at that matchup, I was like this
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: game has overwritten all over it. Man. Both bullpens suck
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent tickets on the over seventy three percent
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. Though, if I was
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: gonna go under in this game, it would have to
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: be first five innings and then you'll get Griffin, and
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: then I guess Hudson might give you one okay inning,
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: and then you get Burke who might be okay, So
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: that'll get you through the verse five. You know, underfirst
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: five might make sense. I would not play the full
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: game under though. With those Bullpens, Nats are unpredictable. Yeah,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, there are certain spots where you could definitely
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: jump in in their games. But I would say, if
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, the majority of times I've gone with
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: the Washington game this year, it's been playing an over. Probably.
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: I would definitely not hesitate to play an over in
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: a Washington game if the matchup is right, But this one,
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with it. All Right,
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Saint Louis, I'm gonna take a break at
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: some point because we still have to get through the
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: rest of these games. I already talked about both double
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: header games in a Shaye Stadium, City Field. Sorry, it's
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: not Shaye Stadium, it's City Field, dude. I'm way too old,
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: all right. Seattle at Saint Louis. We did get the
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: wom with Seattle yesterday. We were able to dodge a
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: horrible start from WU yesterday. I don't know what that was,
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: because Seattle's hitting did exactly what we needed them to
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: do in that game. The bullpen did well enough as well,
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: but WU was horrible in the game. I don't know
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: what that was. Saint Louis trying to avoid a sweep now, though,
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: so they might have a little bit of extra motivation here.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: Although Saint Louis is not a good team, dude, I
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: keep saying this. They're not as good as their record indicates.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: Seattle is not that good on the road. They're three
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: and eight, but of course two of those wins have
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: come in this series. I don't really know that Seattle's
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: going to look ahead to Minnesota next. So I don't
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: know that Seattle, yeah, we'll get caught in a look
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: ahead spot here or anything like that. Bullpen wise, Seattle
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen. Both bullpens got kind of used yesterday.
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: Seattle used four guys. They have a couple of their
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: better relievers available today, though Saint Louis does not have
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: a good bullpen and they use literally everybody out of
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: their bullpen except for Nandez, so that is obviously not
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: a good sign. They use seven relievers yesterday. Seattle has
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen anyway, and the more rested bullpen coming
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: into this, So Seattle does have a bullpen edge right now.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: There's sixteenth in whip. Their era is quite good. But
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: we know that Seattle's bullpen is solid because they have
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: some of the same guys they had last year, some
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: of those better guys. Saint Louis's bullpen is not good.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: They're at twenty third. Quite obviously, we have I think
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: a pretty big bullpen edge for Seattle here. Seattle's offense
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: maybe starting to come around a little bit. They're at twentieth,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: although Saint Louis is at fourteenth, but I don't think
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis has a significant offensive edge in this matchup.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching does look pretty good for Seattle as well.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: Emerson Hancock is pitching and he looks like he's starting
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: to take off. Man, he's twenty six, you know, he's
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: not that old yet. Early parts of his career he
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: definitely struggled, but this year he's got good numbers. Two
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: point eight three, ERA, point eight seven, whip, twenty eight
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: to four strike a walk ratio, twenty one hit it's
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: allowed in twenty eight to two thirds innings. The only
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: concern is the five home runs, but three of them
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: just came in the last outing against the A's and
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: he allowed no other runs besides three solo home runs.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: I would give him more of a pass for that,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: though if that was in the A's very hitter friendly stadium.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: It was not it was in Seattle, but either way,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: he's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every outing.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: His all of his numbers look really good, actually really
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: great command numbers there again, except for the home run numbers,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: he's been pretty unhittable. He looks good, dude, and Seattle
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: receives Saint Louis the other stl Saint Louis is zero
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: for six with a strikeout against him, so they've had
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: five guys have faced him before and they don't have
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: a hit off him or a walk. So he's done
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: well against him in a limited sample size. And he's
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: also unfamiliar to them. That looks good. He is going
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: up against one of the more I don't know, I
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: guess Capable pictures that Saint Louis has, Michael mcgreev. He's
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: not a strikeout guy, but he has been pretty good
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: this year. Three point two ninety ira point nine to
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: one whip. I kind of expect those numbers to not
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: stay where they are, but fifteen to five strike out
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. The number one walks is low for sure.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: It's twenty seven to third innings and only twenty hits allowed.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: But he's allowed four home runs, so his home run
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: number there is not that good. Again, he just doesn't
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: strike that many guys out. The rest of his numbers
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: look pretty good. He doesn't put a lot of guys
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: on base. He's allowed four fewer earned runs in all
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: of his outings. His two home starts have been pretty good.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: Don't necessarily know if I really want to fade him.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Seattle. Of course, they have seventeen
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: at bats against him, three strikeouts, no walks, no extra
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: base hits, two thirty five average four to seventy one ohps.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: I yeah, I mean I lean Seattle slightly in this game,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: you know, I think Seattle the bull edge should help them,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: even though Saint Louis should be extra motivated here. But
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: Seattle's getting the money there minus one thirty two, seventy
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: six percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: on them. I think they might have a slight starting
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: pitching edge, but then they have a big bullpen edge
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: in my opinion here hitting I don't think it's really
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: big one way or the other. The money has also
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: come in towards the over here, which I don't really
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: The only thing that I can understand about the over
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: here is that the bullpens are pretty unrested. So if
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: you want to go over in this game, you've got
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: to go full game with it and take advantage of it,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: especially if Saint Louis's bad unrested bullpen. But I think
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: under first five innings makes some sense in this game,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: given what we have at the starting pitching matchup there,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: we have seventy two percent of tickets in ninety six
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Saint Louis. So what's an overgame? Washington?
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: I don't really necessarily agree with that. I mean, all
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: the money is indicating very strongly on the under in
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: that game. I would say again, I think the first
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: five under makes sense to me. In that Washington White
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: Sox game, you know, given what we think we're gonna
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: get out of the pitching there, which you know, maybe
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: that would be a tone setter in that game. I
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: don't want to go over in that game. If I
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: if I did it, I would go full game. But
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: I don't. I don't agree that it's a strong play
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: or anything. You don't think the Nationals are gonna get
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: it done? I don't know. I mean, Griffin's been good
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: and the White Sox offense isn't good and they haven't
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: seen him before, so I don't know about that. I
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: think he can do okay in that game. Yeah, I
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: don't know. I'm pushing back on the over because that
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: the market is certainly telling you to not do it.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know. Sometimes I will fade the
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: market in baseball, but that's not a game where I'm
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Yeah, I don't know that that is
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: a strong market read on the under though. All right,
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: what's next? A is in Texas? Yeah, Texas. These teams
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: have split the first two games of the series, so
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: big divisional series. Both teams should show up. These teams
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: are tied atop the Division two. The AA has only
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: just two relief pitchers yesterday. The bullpen is not very
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: good though Texas used four, but I think Texas still
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen even with the slight rest disadvantage.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: Texas is second in bullpen whip right now. I think again,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: I told you it's them in San Diego. I think
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: are the top two bullpens. They both the pitcher friendly
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: stadiums they pitch in as well, and that's where we
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: are here. The aa is bullpen is not particularly good.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: They're twenty first in whip. Offensively, I think the A's
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: do have the better offense. They're at sixteenth right now,
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: Texas nineteenth in ops. But I think the A's do
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: have the better offense. J T. Ginn is pitching for
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: the A's. Yeah, I mean, I don't know how trustworthy
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: he really is. His numbers are pretty good this season
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: so far, at three point seven one point six whip.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: Some of that was coming out of the bullpen, though,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: And yeah, it is true that the A's have won
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: all five games that he's appeared in this month, One
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: or two of them came out of the bullpen though,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: and I think, yeah, he's made like three starts. I
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: think since then he's been serviceable. He's allowed three or
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: fewer runs, and all of them he doesn't really go
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: that deep. So you know you're gonna have to deal
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: with the a's bullpen if you go full game on this,
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: so you know, do act accordingly, but again, might get
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: you through about five innings here, it seems like it
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: basically has been what he's been able to do. Numbers
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: against Texas are kind of all over the place. In
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: forty eight at bats, six to eight strike up walk
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: ratio is not good. But Josh Smith, our our libertarian friend,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: oh has five of those walks, so maybe those walks
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: don't mean that much. He sell him to a two
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: twenty nine average, but a nine to sixty four ops
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: because they do all have five home runs off of
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: him that are pretty spread out. So I don't know
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: if I really trust gin here. I don't know if
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: I trust Kumar Rocker on the other side either. Rocker,
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, he is starting to pitch a little bit better.
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: It looks like three point four to EIGHTYRA one point
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: three to one whip. Those are not horrible numbers. Here.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: He's allowed three or four earned runs in all of
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: his outings, so that's not bad. Finally picked up a win,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: and they finally won behind him. He pitched well against
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh in his last outing, better than I thought. Five strikeouts,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: one walk, one ear and run allout, four hits six
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: innings at home. He's been better at home as well.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: His two worst starts both came on the road, but
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: they were also kind of difficult environments. One was at
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: that A's ballpark and the other was against the Dodgers.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: So Rocker actually has been somewhat impressive this year. Really,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: his numbers against the A's are awful, though they have
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: seen him a bit because he's pitching in their division.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: Thirty three at bats seven to five, strike out walk ratio,
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: three ninety four batting average a lot in oneenty forty
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: nine ohps. The matchup numbers don't look good, so I
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: worry a little bit about that. Some of that is
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: him just facing the A's in the A's stadium in
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: that last outing, so you know, maybe he'll do better,
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: but it doesn't mean the A's are recently familiar with
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: them too, so that's a little bit of a disadvantage
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: maybe there, But I think Gin just faced Texas as
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: well in that series, if I'm not mistaken yet. He did.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: He didn't do bad in that game, but he did
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: walk four guys, so that wasn't that great. So both
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: offenses do have a little bit of an edge in
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: that they both saw these pictures recently. But I don't
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: know man Rocker diving into the numbers. I don't like
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: his matchup numbers, obviously, but I don't know. He seems
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: like the more he's he's definitely the picture with more
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: upside here, and the money seems to be backing Texas
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: at minus one seventeen sixty six percent of tickets ninety
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on Texas, I think I'm
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: gonna agree. Even though I know Rocker has bad numbers
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: against the A's, some of those numbers are in the
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: A Stadium. He's better at home. He looks like he's
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: better this year, so he might be coming into form
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: where some of those numbers where him struggling earlier in
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: his career. Again, I just don't really see much upside
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: there because he's later into his career. Rocker is still
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: a bit younger then, you know, if you go Texas,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: you gotta go full game because you want to take
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: advantage of their bullpen. Even though they're a little bit
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: less rested. I think you still want it. Yeah, I'm
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: gonna lean Texas slightly in that game. Josh Smith. Yeah,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: he has enough kids, Yeah to field an entire baseball team. Yeah.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: How many kids does he have? Now? He just hasn't
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: he had another one or his wife is pregnant again
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: right now. I don't know. I can't keep track because
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: he has grandkids as well, so I think he has
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: I want to say he has like nine kids of
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: his own, and then I think he has two or
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: three grandkids. Maybe I'm maybe I'm lowballing that. I don't know. Yeah,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: shout out to him. The most v rile man in existence, man,
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: besides maybe Antonio Cromarti and guys like that. But I
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: prefer Josh Smith to all those guys. Josh Smith, good dude.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: By the way, I've had him stay at my house before,
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: I've hung out with him on multiple occasions. Yeah. I
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: like Josh. He's fun to hang out with. Two if
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: you go out with him, Yeah, dude, I don't know.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: Man like his he'd be an excellent wingman like going
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: out with him because his charisma is like off the
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: charts too. Yeah, yeah, I love that guy. All right,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: I'll be back in a second. We've got to finish
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: the other show off here. Yep. Inside I want to
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: kill myself. We were on OWN seven run over the
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: last two days after tonight just complete bullshit. So that's
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible Sunday one
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: in five. I don't even know what to tell you
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: about that. I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: Own four, I have not had a good season. Man
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: my browins hat man, I don't know what is going
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: on with the Bruins. March epe is that what it is?
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not I don't even know what day it is anymore. Man,
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: possibly have back with you as I always am until
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: I die at least oh and two yesterday and yesterday
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: it did not go well for me. Own five, the
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: about this anymore. To the slump series discons the slump continues.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: All right, all right, we're back here. Let's finish off
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: baseball here. Only have that one baseball play that I
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: gave out. We have Miami and San Francisco.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: These teams split the first two games of the series
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: as well, so I'm expecting both teams probably show up here.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: I think Miami might have like a big series up
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: next if I remember what I was looking at here,
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: let me see. Yeah, they're playing the Dodgers next, but
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: I still think they're gonna show up to try to
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: win this series. Though used four relief pitchers yesterday, Miami
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: used two. Both bullpens have been pretty good. I think
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: San Francisco probably has the better bullpend there. E Ray
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: is really good, one of the best. Their eighth in
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: WHIP as well, Miami sixth. But you know, the rest
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: edge maybe helps Miami a little bit there. The bullpens
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: are pretty comparable, I would say, right in the state
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: that they're currently in. As far as the offense, Miami
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: is surprisingly still up there at seventh in ops. Giants
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: have been a very weak offense. They's second worst right now,
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: so I'll give Miami a decent offensive edge year. Max
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: Meyer pitching from Miami. You know, he's a young guy
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: with talent and hasn't really come around, you know, and
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: he's twenty seven now. But he's been okay this year.
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: Three point nine to six ERA one point two four WHIP.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in every one
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: of his outings. Hasn't really gone deep into any of
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: the outings though, Like he's mostly going around five innings
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: in each one, which you know, might get you there
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: or at least keep you in the game. Twenty eight
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: to eleven strike out walk ratio. It is too many walks.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: Twenty hits a lot in twenty five innings, so the
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: strikeout rate is good more than one per inning. He's
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: not been very hittable. The wildness is the main concern
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: with him here against San Francisco. They really don't have
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: much experience against it. They have eight at bats against him,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: but they're five for eight between a Damas and ara As,
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: two doubles, one strikeout, no walks. I wouldn't put much
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: weight into that, Like, he is unfamiliar to the rest
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: of their hitters, so he might do okay here with
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: that unfamiliarity edge behind him. But Sar Francisco has landing
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: route pitching, and he's still a guy nobody talks about.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: He's way under the radar because he's not flashy. You know,
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: he doesn't blow guys away with his fastball. But what
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: he does do is throws these crazy, like breaking pitches
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: that are really hard to figure out. He's been really
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: good this year two point two eighty RRA at one
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: point zero one whip. We're happy with him on the
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: show because I believe I gave out unders in his
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: last two games and they both hit, so I'm happy
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: about that. He's got a thirty one to twelve strike
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio this year. That's yeah, I mean, that's
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: not great, but it's pretty good. I mean, the walk
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: numbers are just a little bit concerning because he walked
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: five guys in his last outing against the Dodgers, but
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: he won hit them through five innings. And in fact,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: he's had two straight one hit performances, so he's pretty
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: difficult to hit. That's still impressive to do that against
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. Man sixteen hits a lot in twenty seven
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: to two thirds innings, hasn't allowed any home runs. He's
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: definitely difficult to hit with this nasty breaking stuff that
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: he throws. His one bad outing was hilariously against the Mets.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: It wasn't home although you know, I'm not gonna knock
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: him much for you know, just an outing that looks
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: like it was a fluke and he had a seven
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: to one strike a walk ratio, and a we got
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly park here. I think he might do
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: fine here in Miami is very unfamiliar with him. Only
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: Stours has faced him before, if that's how you pronounced
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: his name. He came back from injury recently, but he's
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: oh for one off of Ralp. Ralp is very unfamiliar here.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: I like San Francisco slightly here. I like Ralp. His
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: current form a little bit more than Meyer. And again
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: I think Ralph just he's very unheralded, which I like
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: when you know, like the the hidden edge, if you
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: want to call it that. San Francisco is at minus
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: won twenty seven, eighty four percent of tickets, ninety one
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. I would not disagree
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: with an under in this game either. The total is
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: seven and a half juice to the over right now,
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: it looks like it might even hit eight. You get
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent of tickets on the over, fifty five
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under. I'm gonna lean
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: under as well. I think maybe under is actually preferable
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: to the side here because you got two bullpens that
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: are pretty good this year. Pitcher friendly ballpark. Uh, both
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers have a lot of unfamiliarity here. Although I
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: worry a bit more about Meyer for the reasons that
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: I already stated, so slightly into San Francisco, I think
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: probably my preference is actually under in that game, though,
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: That's how I look at it, all right. Josh Smith
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: is running for Senate, I believe, out of out of Iowa.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, if dude, if he if he wins his primary,
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: he's going to win right because yeah, Iowa, like a
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: Republican is going to win that seat. He's gotta win
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: the primary. Ralph ten strikeouts per nine, Yeah, Mark, Wait,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: Marlins are number two versus right handed hitters. Ralp is
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: a lefty? Right? Hold on? Am I wrong about I
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: might be wrong about that? No, he is a righty.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: You're right. I'm know why I keep thinking he's a lefty.
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I always think like these weird curveball
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: pitchers are lefties. If you're right, he's a writing Maybe
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: it's because his name is l R. I'm like, wait,
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: which one is it? L or R? So the Marlins
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: hit right handed hitter as well, right handed pitcher as well.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: I still, I still think Roupe has a pretty decent
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: edge in that one. Dirty sock, what's up? Yes? I
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: already talked about the Rockies doubleheader. You know, I mean
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: they have to face Nolan Nolan McClain in the first game,
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: so obviously I think the Mets are gonna win the
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: first game the second game. I just don't have any
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: real guess on what the hell is gonna happen in
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: the second game. We don't even know who the Rockies
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: of pitching in that game. All right, we have a
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: San Diego and Arizona finishing off this Mexico City doubleheader,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: or not doubleheader but two game event here. Yesterday's game
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: was not as high scoring as I thought. It was
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: only six to four, So I apologize for that opinion there,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: but I told you it wasn't a strong opinion. It
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: went way under the total. We still have a very
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: high total in this game. I don't know that it's
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: necessarily justified here because San Diego actually has one of
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: their better pitchers pitching in this one, So I don't know. Man.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: As far as the bullpen used yesterday, san Diego used
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: three relievers yesterday Arizona used four. And you know, I
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: don't like Arizona's bullpen. San Diego's bullpen, I think is
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: the best in baseball. Their third and whip right now,
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: but they're basically an elite bullpen. Arizona is sitting fourth
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: and whip, but their ERA is almost five. And again
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: based on the personnel they have, I don't buy Arizona's bullpen.
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: So I think San Diego is definitely the better bullpen here. Hitting, yeah,
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: I think Arizona does have the better offense. They're at
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: eleventh right now. San Diego still has struggled a bit.
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: They're at twenty fourth. Maybe they're not quite that bad
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: worse than Arizona though, But Michael king is pitching for
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: San Diego. I think he's the better of the starting
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: pitchers today. I think that's really not in question. Two
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: point two eighty RRA one point one two whip. The
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: walks are always the issue with king Man. He's gone
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: twenty seven to two thirds inn He's twenty six strikeouts.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: Usually he's a little bit better at the strikeouts than that,
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: but the walks fourteen, that's really the concern Man. He's
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: only allowed one home run. He hasn't allowed that many
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: fly balls this year, although he is kind of a
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: flyball pitcher though, so you might have to worry about
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: that a little bit in this stadium. But he's pitched
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: pretty well this year. He's allowed two or fewer runs
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: and all but one outing. Again, the concern is walks, though,
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: He's got to keep those walks under control somehow. Numbers
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: against the d Backs are good and forty at bats
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: eight to two, strikeout walk RACEIO two hundred batting average
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: five thirty eight ops allowed, so that those numbers do
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: look good. And he's going up against my absolute favorite,
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: Ryan Nelson, who I keep saying, this guy blows. You know,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know what he's I don't know how his
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: numbers were that good last year, don't know how they
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: were good this year, but now they're not good. Six
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: point nine to seventy RA one point four or five whip.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: But that's all because he just gave up eight runs
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: in a third of an inning against Toronto, which is
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: skewing his numbers dramatically. But still I don't think he's good.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: He's not going that deep into these games. You know,
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: he's got a twenty to nine strike at walk ratio,
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: so still the walk number is pretty bad. In twenty
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings, he's now allowed twenty one hits, so
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: that unhit ability that he kind of had earlier kind
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: of went away there. I don't know. I mean, obviously
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: he's not going to be this bad again that you know,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: he's gonna bounce back from that Toronto game. But he's
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: he is an extreme fly ball pitcher. He's allowed more
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: than double the fly balls than ground balls this year,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: so this does not look like a good environment for
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: him to be pitching him against. San Diego's numbers are
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: not that good. One hundred and fifteen at bats twenty
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: three to nine strike a walk ratio to eighty seven
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed in eight to fifty two ops. I
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: don't trust Nelson here, man. I think I would lean
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: San Diego if I was gonna play this game. They're
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: getting some of the money. It looks like they're at
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: minus one twenty nine eighty three percent of the tickets
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: ninety seven percent of the cash on San Diego. I
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: know they won yesterday, So yeah, maybe Arizona's gonna put
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: in an extra effort to try to not get swept
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: in this Mexico City thing. But yeah, I don't know, man.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: I just obviously I like King over Nelson. I mean
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: that's not really a question. The money is hitting the
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: over in this game still total at fifteen. I'm not
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: so sure I would want to do it. San Diego
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: pitched okay yesterday. Their bullpend is quite good, you know, King.
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: I mean he's not that bad of a pitcher. I
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: mean maybe he struggles a little bit in this extreme
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: high elevation here, because if you missed it yesterday, the
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: reason why the totals are so high in Mexico City
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: is because they play at like a ten thousand foot elevation,
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: so it's ridiculous. But anyway, I don't know. I mean,
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: both these pitchers are used to pitching in the high
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: elevation because they have to play in Colorado sometimes. So
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know. But Ryan Nelson pitches any more hitter
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: friendly park in Arizona than San Diego, which is a
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park. Ryan Nelson pitches in a hitter friendly park.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: Might I might have misspoke there. Cubs and Dodgers the
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: biggest series over the weekend, man, and and you know,
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: it's kind of lived up to the high But I
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: guesses each team won one game so far, so this
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: is the rubber match. Dodgers won twelve to four yesterday.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I told you I don't trust
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: Colin Ray. So the Cubs used two relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: including Javier Asad, the dictator. Cubs woping is pretty solid,
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 1: though they didn't use any of their better relievers because
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: they got blown out yesterday. Dodgers use four relief pitchers.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: Cubs have the better bullpen and the more rested bullpen here.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: Cubs are tenth in bullpen whip right now. Dodgers, I
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: know they're ninth, but their ERA is significantly worse. I
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: think the Cubs do indeed have the better bullpen here.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: Both offenses have been good and they're now one and
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: two in ops. The Cubs have been really hitting well recently.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers have hit well all season pretty much, so
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: you know, Dodgers are the best in baseball. But chowtegy
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: Minaga is pitching for the Cubs. I think he's their
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: best starter. He's he's really good. Two point one seven ERA,
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: point seven to two whip thirty two to six strike
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: got walk ratio this year in fifteen hits in twenty
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: nine innings. Yeah, that's good stuff. He's allowed since his
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: opening start, where he allowed four and runs to Washington.
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: Since then, he's allowed one or zero earned runs in
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: every outing. He's obviously in good form right now, except
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: for the fact that he's somehow. I only had one
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: strikeout last time out against Philly, still held him to
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: wonner and run though had a lot of ground balls
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: in that game. Whatever, you know, maybe a little bit
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: of a blip. Numbers against the Dodgers are not too bad.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: In fifty at bats eleven to six, strikeout walk ratio forty.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's not good. It's too many walks, but
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: too forty. Batting average allowed seven to sixty one. Ohps,
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: it's a little bit high. He's allowed three home runs
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: in here. But Imanaga is a very good pitcher man.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: He's certainly capable of pitching well here against the Dodgers,
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: especially with the Cubs maybe being in a little bit
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: of a bounce back after yesterday. He's going up against
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: Justin Robleski, who does have good numbers this year. There's
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: no doubt about that one point eight eight ERA point
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: eighty eight whip. I don't think this is sustainable. Though
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: he's pitched well. The Dodgers have won of his last
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: three outings, but he's faced like no really good offenses.
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: He faced Cleveland, didn't do well in that outing faced Toronto,
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: who you know they've been struggling to hit this year,
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: the Mets, I mean, we know their struggles. And then
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: Colorado it was on the road, so give them credit
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: for pitching a course field. But the Cubs are clearly
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: gonna be by far the best offense that he's faced
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: this year, so that might not be great. He does
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: have a good numbers against him, but only two of
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: their hitters have ever faced him before. Bragman and Kelly
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: are zero for five combined Offen with a walk and
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: no strikeouts. Still pretty clearly, I would say em Naga
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: has a pretty big edge. I think over Robleski, based
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 1: on who these pitchers are, the money is coming in
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: on the Dodgers, I don't really agree. I think this
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: is a spot where the Cubs do have some advantages.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: Dodgers in minus won twenty one eighty two percent of
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety five percent of the cash on the Dodgers.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: They're a public side. It does look like they're getting
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: the money right now. Yeah, I don't know. I lean
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: to the Cubs slightly. I like Emanaga over Robleski. I
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: think the Cubs have a bullpen edge as well. The
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: total is sitting at nine. The money is hitting the
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: under very strongly, and you know, I probably do agree
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: with that. Sixty one percent of the tickets on the
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: over eighty seven percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: First five inning under might make more sense because you
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: get the benefit of these two starting pitchers here both
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: might match up. Okay, here I did say, you know
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: Robleski that he's pitched well enough that I think he
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: does get undervalued in the market a little bit. Although
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: you know, I like Ima Naga as an underdog. It's
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: pretty tough to pass up though, you know, so, I
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: think getting the Cubs with him on the mound is
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: an underdog doesn't make sense. But I also agree with
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: an under you could go full game because you do
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: get the key number of nine, you can go under
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: that first five makes sense to to limit it to
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: these starting pitchers. Then you don't have to deal with
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers' bullpen if you want to do it that way.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: I could see arguments for doing either way, though. Anaheim
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: at Kansas City is the night game on Peacock. For
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: whatever reason, Kansas City is on the verge of sweep
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: and they won twelve to one yesterday. Kansas City's offense
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: comes out and explodes in a game. You know, looks
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: like your INYA did not do well in that game,
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: and maybe Cole Reagan's is actually starting to come back
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: into form there Kansas City. Will they look ahead to
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: the A's next I don't know, man, I don't think
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: they're going to overlook a home game in a Peacock
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: night game though, that's the thing, like I do like
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: to take teams that are trying to avoid a sweep,
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: but maybe not here that you know, it's a big
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: game to be hosting at night, it's a primetime game.
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know the Kansas City is going to look
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: ahead to the A's even though they are I think
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: tied in the lead for their division right now, the
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: West Division, not Kansas City's division obviously, but Anaheim might
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: give you a little extra effort here. Anaheim's bullpen is
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: bad and they used four relief pitchers yesterday. Kansas City's
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: bullpen has also been bad. They used three relief pitchers,
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: but based on last year, I think Kansas City probably
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: does have more room to improve their bullpen. They've been
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: really bad. Yesterday they weren't, but they're at I think
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: they must have gotten into the game yesterday a little bit,
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: but it was a low pressure situation. They're up. They're
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 1: at twenty eighth in I mean, assuming they had a
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: big lead at that point. I don't know. I haven't
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 1: looked at the box scer yet, but they're at twenty
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 1: eighth and bullpen whip, and their era I think is
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: second worst in baseball. Obviously that's bad. Anaheim's bullpen is
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: not much better at twenty fourth, but I don't know, man.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you wanted to argue that Kansas City
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen because they've underperformed this year, I
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 1: wouldn't really disagree with you on that. Anaheim has had
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: the better offense, but their offense is basically all or nothing.
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: They're at eleventh in ops. They basically they either hit
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: home runs or they don't hit it at all. So
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know, that's not really the type of offense
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: that I love. Kansas City is at twenty third after
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: yesterday's offensive outburst, they've moved up a little bit. Red
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: Debt Mes is pitching for Anaheim. He's having a pretty
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: good season. Four point eighty RA is not great, but
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: one point eight whip indicates his ERA should probably be
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: a little lower than that thirty one to eight strike
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio that is impressive. In twenty eight and
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: two thurs in, he's only twenty three hits allowed, so
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: those numbers they look good. He's he's actually pitching pretty
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: well this year, even though Anaheim has lost four of
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: his five outings and the only one that they won
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: was a really good outing he had against the Yankees.
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: But he's been pretty good this year. Though he's allowed
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: some runs in a couple of these outings here, he's
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: actually been better on the road this year as well,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: three point oh six road era. I mean, it's still
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: too small a sample size to really read into that,
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: but do with that what you want. Against Kansas City,
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: his numbers aren't good though, in thirty four at bats
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: eight to three strike out walk ratio two ninety four average,
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: allowed nine to forty oh ps, so he might struggle
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: in this matchup. Uh Pasquentino is three for five a
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: two of them runs off him, So if you want
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: to go hits us runs plus RBI's prop. And he's
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 1: also going up against Seth Lugo, you know, the guy
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: that the advanced analytics guys hate. But his numbers continue
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: to be good. One point one five yarra point nine
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: to three whip. Obviously that's not sustainable. I'm not gonna
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: try to argue that it is. But overall his numbers
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: are pretty good this year, twenty eight to ten strike
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio. Yeah, it's too many walks. He's had
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 1: a couple of walk heavy outings, but he's not really
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: that much of a strikeout guy. He's got you only
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: give it up nineteen hits in thirty one and a
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: third innings. He's not so like talent wise, Yeah, Dettmers
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: has more talent, probably higher ceiling for debt meers. Lugo
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: is a pretty like. He's pretty consistent man. He's given
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: up two or fewer earned runs in every outing, even
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 1: though Kansas City has lost his last three outings. Wasn't
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: his fault giving up two earned runs combined over that span.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: They couldn't hit it at all. And then the other
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: game the bullpen was bad against Anaheim. He has pretty
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 1: good numbers, really good numbers, actually, forty four at bad
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: that's no extra base or no five extrarase hits allowed. Sorry,
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: a lot of doubles, but eleven strikeouts, one walk, one
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: eighty two batting average allowed four ninety five ops. Yeah,
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: I think I do prefer Lugo in the starting pitching
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: matchup here. We got to re handicap Tampa Bay though,
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: because they just changed their starting pitcher. Thanks Tampa, I
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: told you I didn't trust Shulten's though, so I don't know.
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know if my handicap is really going to
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 1: change on that. The money is fading Kansas City here
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 1: though there at minus one fifteen. Again, the professional better
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: is they don't like Lugo, dude, sixty four percent of tickets,
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of the cash on case, so the
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: money is fading them, you know, I mean, Anaheim might
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 1: put in an extra effort to try to avoid the
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: sweep pier. I don't know. I prefer Lugo over Detmers, though,
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 1: that's for sure. I don't know. I think I kind
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: of link Kansas City a little bit based on that matchup.
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: Maybe first five innings, I don't know, I mean full game.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: I don't think there's that much of an advantage one
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: way or the other. The bullpen under first five innings
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: might make some sense, though, because Lugo has good matchup numbers.
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: Both pitchers have been pitching well. So if you want
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: to go based on current form totals at eight and
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: a half sixty one percent of tickets and sorry sixty
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: two now at seventy seven percent of the cash on
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: the over, But obviously if you go over you're gonna
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: include these awful bullpens in that equation. I think under
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: first five might make some sense in that game as well.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: All right, and then Tampa Bay changed their starting pitcher
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: to Griffin Jacks, so I don't know what that means.
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: Like Schulten's probably wasn't gonna give you a deep outing here,
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 1: but I don't know what we're even what what is
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: Jack's gonna give us here man, because he's also a
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: relief pitcher. His numbers sucked this year eight e er
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: one point eight to nine whip. He's gonna basically one
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: inning every time he's come out for the most part,
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: so he's probably gonna be an opener, give you one inning,
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: and they might use Schulten's behind that. I don't know.
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think my handicap really changes there, if anything,
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: that makes me like Minnesota maybe a little bit more
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: than I did. I'm still gonna I lean to Minnesota before,
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: even though the money is not agree with me there,
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna still agree with Minnesota. I would prefer Woods
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: Richardson over whatever the hell Tampa is doing, even though
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: I know Tampa were kind of the pioneers of the
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: bullpen game back with Joe Matt and back in the day.
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: But anyway, my only playing baseball is the Milwaukee Brewers.
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: Let's finish this show off here, man, show off. We
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: have four playoff games in hockey and in baseball or
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 1: sorry basketball to try to get through here. Hockey, the
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 1: afternoon games are on TNT, True TVHBO Max, and the
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: other two are on ESPN. I'm gonna have one play
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: here and hope I choose the right game. That's you know,
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: That's that's all I gotta say here, man. You know what,
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know, because I haven't actually made a bet
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: or anything. Maybe I want to pull my playoff the
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: board because the money is just not agreeing with me.
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: Like I thought that I would have a play today,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: but I don't really want to force it. Ugh. You know. Fuck,
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: I like my my NBA play. I like a lot
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 1: and I already bet it actually, But you know, I
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: don't know. I have more confidence in the NBA, just
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: despite what I what I did yesterday. I do my
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: NHL like hockey playoffs have been good. But you know what,
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: I think I will not give out my play in hockey.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: It's not gonna be a play I haven't bet it
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: yet anyway, so I'm gonna pull it off the board.
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 1: I hate this, so I haven't got a hockey play
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: for a while, but I just don't I don't love it, man. Yeah,
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Look at what's upcoming. I don't know
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: when I'm gonna have another play. But Buffalo at Boston
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: is the first game up. Obviously, I have to root
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: for the Bruins as a Bruins fan. Now the Bruins
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: are down to one. The Bruins could be a lean
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: here man in this game because you look at what
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: happened in the last game. The Bruins are really good
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: at home twenty nine to eleven and one at home.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: Sabers have been okay on the road twenty four to
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: thirteen to four. But you want to play the Bruins
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: at home most likely when they're playing. If you look
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 1: at what happened in this game, it was pretty close
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 1: and then there was an empty net goal at the end.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: Bruins wound up losing three to one. You look at
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: the stats, I mean, it was a pretty close game.
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: All the stats were I guess slightly in favor of Buffalo,
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: but it was a close game. Bruins are good at home.
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: I do think the Bruins are gonna come out with
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: fire here. I don't know, man, I don't think it's
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: gonna be that easy for Buffalo to win both games
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: in Boston. Bruins, I think still typically are the more
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: physical team. They have more playoff experience, they have a
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: more experienced goalie. In environments like this, I'm gonna lean
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: to the Bruins here. I'm not being biased with it
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: because I am a Bruins fan, but I do think
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: the Bruins are the side to look at here. They'ret
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: minus one ten, fifty three percent of tickets, fifty six
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash, and we can hope because my
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: bracket is looking pretty bad right now with a lot
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: of my teams being down one two, including the Bruins.
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 1: But I only have them winning this one series, all right.
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: Colorado at LA, Yeah, I mean Colorado clearly the better
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 1: team in this series. LA might be the worst team
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: that made the playoffs. They're also really bad at home.
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: LA was fifteen, seventeen and nine at home. That is
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: not what you want. Maybe they do show up here, though, Man, Colorado,
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: this could be a game that Colorado kind of overlooks
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Like I said with the two, although
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 1: I had a heavier opinion on the wrong one yesterday,
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: I liked Ottawa yesterday. I lead Pittsburgh as well and
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: day one, but I thought Ottawa was the stronger one
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 1: because they were at home, and I thought they had
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a better matchup against Carolina than
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh does against Philadelphia. But anyway, teams that are down
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: three to zero in the NHL, they don't behave like
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: teams down three to zero in NBA, because three to
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: zero in NBA like it's over It's never been overcome.
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 1: World of the Celtics could have done it being a
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 1: home favorite in that Game seven against the Heat, and
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: Jason Tatum got her a couple of years ago. I'm
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: not happy about that. Celtics would have been in the finals,
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 1: probably would have lost to Denver, but you never know.
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: I think it was Denver that year anyway. But yes,
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: the teams that are down three to zero in hockey,
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 1: they do actually show up. Hockey is just a different
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 1: beast man. These teams do not lie down. And you
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: saw Ottawa Carolina that was a psycho game yesterday. Like
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: Ottawa leveled that really hard hit. I think they probably
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 1: can cussed. I forget who it was on Carolina, but
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: a bunch of fights broke out in that game. It
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: was crazy. This is hockey, dude, It's why hockey is
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: the best sport. I'm sorry, but it is. It's the
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: most manly out of the main four sports. So maybe
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: LA shows up with some fire here. It might be
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: a spot where maybe Colorado just does overlook them a
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: little bit. But I don't really want to deal with that. Man.
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 1: You get LA as a big underdog here, but they're
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: horrible at home. They're clearly the worst of these two teams.
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know. The money is hitting Colorado a little bit.
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: At minus one seventy seventy three percent of tickets eighty
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on them. The money is
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: kind of indicating on the under in both these games.
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: By the way, even though a three to zero game,
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: I think it over makes a little bit more sense
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: because that team it's up three to oho usually lets
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: down a little bit defensively. Money is indicating on the
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: under in every one of these games except Edmonton Anaheim.
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 1: What else is new the game where the series where
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: neither team can play defense. Yeah, anyway, the money's coming
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: into Colorado. I slightly disagree with it. Maybe it's a
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: spot where you take a shot with like making your
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: own plus one puck line on the Kings. I don't
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: want to do it though in the last two games. Though,
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: these are my stronger opinions, and the market is disagreeing
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 1: with both. If I was gonna have any play, it
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 1: would be on Tampa Bay. And yes, I don't want
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 1: to be influenced by the fact that I picked Tampa
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: Bay to win the champion and ship. But they've been
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: the better team in the series, dud and I know
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 1: they're down to one in the series. Every game has
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: gone into overtime, and Tampa Bay, if you look at
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: the stats, they were better in each of the first
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: two games. And I know those were both home games,
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: but Tampa Bay, you know, had more shots, more physicality,
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 1: although they lost the face off battle I guess in
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 1: the first game. But the games have been close statistically,
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: and yes, Montreal was a little bit better in the
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 1: last game, but they still had to take it to
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: overtime to win the game. I still think Tampa Bay
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: better team, the more experienced team. Montreal is very young
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 1: and still not used to this. Tampa Bay as the
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: better goalie in Vasilevsky, and he has not been bad
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 1: in this series. So again Montreal, every game has had
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: to go into overtime so far, and yeah, I just
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, when it gets to these games
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: or just becomes higher and higher pressure, I like the
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: better team and that's Tampa Bay. I'm gonna leed Tampa
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: Bay money is not agreeing with me. Sixty two percent
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 1: of tickets, fifty seven percent of the cash on them.
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: That worries me because I think this is my strongest
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: of the opinions here. Tampa Bay at minus one thirteen,
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: I like it. You know, it has been a bit
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 1: of a close series, but again, I don't know, man,
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: I think the better team can overcome this. Yeah, Tampa
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: I know they have some home games left. Still, the
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: team down two one is going to be a little
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: bit more motivated. And when it's the better team losing
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 1: the series, I do like that. Which also means I
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 1: dueling to Edmonton in this game against Anaheim. But this
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: one I'm a little bit less bullish on because Tampa
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: Bay has actually been a good road team. Twenty four
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: to twelve and five on the road. Montreal pretty good
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: at home twenty four to fifteen and two, but Tampa
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: Bay road record, they could definitely win on the road.
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: Edmonton Anaheim is not really like that Edmonton nineteen sixteen
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: and six on the road. They're not a good road team.
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is much better at home twenty four to thirteen
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: and four, So that does worry me a little bit,
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: even though I leen Edmonton here. Edmonton's lost two games
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: in a row, but Edmond has really struggled on the
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 1: defensive side. Their goaltending is an absolute mess. I know
• 1:42:04
  Speaker 1: I picked them to win this series in my bracket
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: because they are the favorite to win it. They are
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: the better team here, but it's not looking great for
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: them right now. And if you look at the box
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 1: score in this game, they got outplayed in this game.
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: I know Anaheim had an empty net goal at the end.
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: I know the game was close. I was within one
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 1: goal coming into the final minutes there. But Anaheim won
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 1: this game. They had way more shots by fifteen, which
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 1: is pretty surprising. They were a little bit more physical
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 1: to winning the hits and the face off battle. So
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm gonna lean Edmonton because they are
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 1: the better team, They're the more experienced team. It does matter.
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: And when you get deeper into these series, with the
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: money's disagreeing fifty three percent of tickets and fifty two
• 1:42:45
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Edmonton and minus one thirty five,
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: this is another really high total. Seven you like, you
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 1: never see seven in the playoffs too. That's how bad
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 1: Edmonton's goaltending and defense is. Anaheim's is really not that
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: good either, So yeah, it definitely could be another high
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 1: scoring game. This series has been out of control, high
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 1: scoring so far, and with a quick turnaround time, you know,
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: the rest isn't really there for the defenses to really
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: play that well. Here. Yeah, I'm gonna lean Edmonton, but
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: I don't love it by any means. I'm staying away
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: from hockey unfortunately. I think, looking at the market right
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 1: now and whatever, maybe the strongest lean would actually be
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: the Bruins at this point. I yeah, I don't know, man,
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: I just yeah, I don't like it at all. I'm
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: gonna give out an NBA play though, which I do like.
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: Let's get into it. It is the first game up, so
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have an afternoon NBA game the first two
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: games around ESPN. The other games are nbcpacock this game
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: I like. I like this one a lot, and I
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: already bet this at three and a half. There might
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 1: still be three and a half's lingering around, but you
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 1: might have to pay extra juice for it. We're playing
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 1: the Cleveland Calves. It's a situation where you get the
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: better team off of a very misleading and very ugly
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: looking loss. You're gonna get a bounce back here. Cleveland's
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: gonna win this game easily. Dude. I'm pretty confident in
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: this one. I know my NBA playoffs. I think I'm
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 1: only like four and three, which I don't love. In hockey,
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 1: I think I'm only one to one and one. I've
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: been trending lightly and it hasn't gone that well. But NBA,
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 1: I don't love that. I lost that one yesterday obviously,
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: but we're two and zero the previous night in the NBA,
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: so we're sticking to it. We're zigzagging. That's the name
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: of the game here. You might have to lay four now.
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately we're not there to get the two and a half,
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: but there might still be some three and a half's
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: lingering around. I'd probably still lay the four at this point.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 1: I know the line was three in the previous game,
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: so the books know about the zigzag, so they know
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: that these better teams will come out with a bit
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 1: more intensity in the next game after they lose. But
• 1:44:52
  Speaker 1: losing one point of value hopefully is not gonna matter,
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: even though I know it is kind of in that
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 1: key range in basketball. But I think Cleveland can run
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 1: away with this thing. They're the way better team, dude.
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 1: Uh seventy percent of tickets eighty one percent of the
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 1: cash on the Cavs, so the money is agreeing with me.
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 1: And if you look at what happened in this game,
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 1: Toronto won the game by twenty two. But if you
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: look at what happened in this game, that is not
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: indicative of what happened in this game at all. Cleveland
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: shot fifty seven percent from the field, sixty one percent
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 1: from three, while excuse me, Toronto did. Excuse me, Toronto
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: shot insanely. That that's not gonna happen again, dude. And
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: I know Toronto was bad from the free throw line
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 1: fifty seven percent, Yes, that should improve a little bit,
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 1: But the rest of these numbers were unbelievable outliers. Dude,
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna shoot fifty seven percent from the field again.
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna shoot sixty one percent from three. Toronto,
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: They're not even a good shooting team. Really, there's just
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: no way that's gonna happen again. Even though they did
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: shoot well in Game one of the series as well
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 1: and lost the game by double digit still, so that's
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 1: also not a good sign. Cleveland didn't shoot well from
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: three point range thirty one percent, maybe some room for
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 1: improvement there. And Cleveland was awful in the turnover department.
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: There were minus ten in turnovers, and you know, the
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: better team could definitely clean that up, even though the
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 1: Celtics didn't totally do it in their last game. But yeah,
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: that is a huge turnover disparity twenty two to twelve.
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's going to clean that up, and that was part
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 1: of the reason why they lost. They won the rebound battle.
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: Toronto does not have answers in the paint, dude, to
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: Allen and Mobley here for Cleveland, Toronto does not. I
• 1:46:33
  Speaker 1: don't think they have any chance to win this game
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: in the paint. So yeah, that all indicates on Cleveland.
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 1: Cleveland winning the rebound battle indicates they were kind of
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: the better team in this game. And if you look
• 1:46:44
  Speaker 1: at the game flow, Cleveland basically just completely lost in
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. I mean, they were tied in
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: the game early in the fourth quarter, I think, and
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 1: then they just went completely silent, like didn't score for
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what this was, like a six
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: minute span, five minute span. Cleveland didn't score basically at all. Yeah,
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 1: that's not gonna happen again. None of this is gonna
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 1: happen again. Toronto's not even really that good at home
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: twenty four to seventeen at home Cleveland twenty five and sixteen. Yeah,
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: we're gonna take the better team off a misleading blowout
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: loss to bounce back here. I think this is clearly
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 1: the strongest play on the board calves minus the points.
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 1: That's what we're doing in that one, all right? San
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: Antonio at Portland on ESPN in the afternoon. Here, we
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 1: got the win with San Antonio in the last game.
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: And I told you I liked it. San Antonio bouncing
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 1: back from losing at home as a double digit favorite,
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 1: san Antonio putting an extra effort without Wemby, and yes,
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: it did take the fourth quarter to start pulling away
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: or third quarter. In fourth quarter, san Antonio was able
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: to pull away though and make it a pretty easy
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: win and cover. Now the question is, are they gonna
• 1:47:55
  Speaker 1: be able to do that again here? I don't know, man,
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 1: because they're a five point favor here, down for five
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: and a half, and they were two and a half
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 1: in the last game and it dropped to one and
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 1: a half when Wemby was ruled out. So you know
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 1: what it means that there's a five point line here.
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: That means Wemby is probably playing in this game, although
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 1: if it's officially announced, it'll probably go up to six.
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna lean against the Spurs in this one
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 1: because you know, I always talk about the injured player theory.
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 1: We played on that in the previous game, but I
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 1: think the reverse injured player theory would be the way
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: to look in this game because when that star player
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: comes back, the team might be like, hey, we won
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 1: easily without you, and you know, you just even though
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: it's the playoffs, you're up to one, you're just one
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 1: without Wemby. You just might take your your mind out
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 1: of it a little bit mentally, you know what, I mean,
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 1: there's just like a little bit of a mental let down.
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: The book tends to overreact a little bit to it.
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: So I think I would lead to the Blazers plus
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 1: the points in this one. Uh, it looks like sixty
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets sixty eight percent of the cash on
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 1: the Spurs right now. Not a huge cash disparity there
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: by the way, As far as the totals, the money
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: is coming out on the under in both of these
• 1:49:04
  Speaker 1: games calvs. Raptors and Spurs Blazers the totals right around
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 1: two nineteen two twenty, and both of them I don't
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 1: have a good read on the total in either game.
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: Of course, you could definitely argue the Raptors are going
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 1: to have the biggest regression out of any of these
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 1: teams from what they shot in the previous game, So
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 1: maybe makes some sense in that regard. Maybe Raptors under
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 1: their team total makes sense in that game too, that
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 1: I gotta score one hunderd and twenty again, I'll tell
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 1: you that. But yeah, Spurs Blazers might leading be to
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 1: the Blazers plus the points. But I think it looks
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 1: like Wemby is coming back. He's not actually injured of course,
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 1: he hit his face on the ground in Game two
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 1: and didn't play the majority of that game. Had to
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: go into concussion protocol, so it's a matter of getting
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: cleared by doctors. I think it looks like he is
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 1: probably playing though. Boston Celtics at Philadelphia. Celtics really did
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 1: not have a good game plan. Men, Like, we got
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 1: a little bit lucky to get that cover. They were
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 1: winning the whole game, and they were the better team
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 1: in this game against Philadelphia, but you know, they had
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: them better rebound. They were better in the rebound department.
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 1: They won the rebound battle by eight. They led three
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: quarters of the game. Whatever, But the Celtics had too
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 1: many turnovers. Again, they were minus six and turnovers. I
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 1: don't love that the Celtics hit twenty threes and still
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 1: almost lost the game. That's not great. Forty three percent
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: of the Celtics. You know, they're typically gonna shoot probably
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 1: about thirty eight percent from three point range, maybe even better.
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 1: I mean they shoot well, that's what they do. But
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 1: you know, I thought they would do better in this game.
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know what they were doing do because they
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 1: were just trying to iso Tatum and Brown for most
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 1: of the game, and they got away with the win,
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 1: and they were the better team in the game. They
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: still dominated in the paint, which you expect with Embiid
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 1: not playing here, and I don't think Embiid is coming back,
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 1: but I guess I have to look and make sure
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 1: of that. But the Celtics won anyway, And you know
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 1: this is a Joe Miszoula Celtics team. Man. When the
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 1: Celtics don't play well, a lot of times, they will
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 1: change what they're doing and they play better in the
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: next game. So I kind of like the Celtics again
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 1: in this game. They're laying about the same price seven
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 1: to seven and a half. It went up to nine
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 1: and a half in the last game, and at least
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 1: we got the I got the playout early in the
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 1: morning there so and I bet it at seven. So
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 1: beating the number there man, made all the difference in
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: that game. Sixty percent of tickets, seventy percent of the
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 1: cash money coming in towards the under in this game
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 1: as well. For what that's where a two thirteen and
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 1: a half. The Celtics play a slow pace O. They're
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 1: a half court style team, so under kind of makes
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 1: sense in that regard. I'm gonna lean slightly to laying
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: the points with the Celtics here, but I don't have
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: a good opinion on this. Obviously, as a Celtics fan,
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 1: I hope they win and I hope they win more easily.
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: But again, what they were doing was stupid in the
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: previous game, and it almost seemed kind of un Celtic, like,
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 1: un Missoula like, because the Celtics, Dude, when they're at
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 1: their best, like they're doing their ball distributing all over
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 1: the place right, like everybody trusts everybody. They have a
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 1: deep team, like you could trust the other guys on
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 1: this team, you know what I mean. So yeah, I
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 1: don't know, Like White has not been really participating in
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 1: the offense too much, and when the Celtics won the
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 1: championship and whatever, White was definitely a guy who could
• 1:52:23
  Speaker 1: rely on as like that third shoot, like third scorer there.
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: They need that back. I don't know what they're doing.
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 1: I know he's a great defensive player and that continues,
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 1: but you need other scoring options, man, even though you
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 1: do have your big two. But yeah, I'm complaining. I'm
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 1: a little bit worried about what the Celtics look like anyway,
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 1: then we have Lakers in Houston. I mean, this is
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: just pathetic for Houston. Actually, hold on, let me make
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: sure that Embid's not coming back. Fuck you, Firefox. I
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 1: hate this, the split view being the next menu option down.
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to like hack Firefox and mess around
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 1: with it. Let me see here, what where's the injury
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 1: report here? Oh? There it is. Embiid is a game
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 1: time decision. Hold on, he's coming back. He's listed as doubtful,
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 1: so it looks like, yeah, he's not playing in this game.
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 1: The line would also have moved probably a little bit
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: towards Philly if he was gonna play. You'd probably see
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 1: the Celtics five and a half six maybe if he
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: was gonna play. So I don't know, and beide possibly
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: coming back from having his appendix out, but I have
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 1: no idea if you will. But anyway, Lakers Houston, Houston's
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: got a fire at you Doka man. I mean this
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 1: is just pathetic. I know Houston doesn't have a point guard,
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 1: but how can you be favored in every game of
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: the series and lose every game, including a game where
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: you're winning by six in the final minute of that
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 1: game At home there, they were like almost a ten
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 1: point favorite in the game, They had a six point
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: lead in the final minute, and they wound up losing
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 1: the game in overtime. This is I mean, I think
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 1: this is more Houston absolutely playing like total ass and
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 1: having no ability to score. And somehow their defense isn't
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 1: even playing well, which their defense has been their saving
• 1:54:12
  Speaker 1: grace this year, and their defense is not even stopping
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 1: guys like Luke Kenard. I don't know what is going
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 1: on in this series, man, Yeah, I mean it's pathetic.
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 1: Houston is gonna have to make some huge changes here
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 1: because this should have been a long series. Like if
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 1: they lost this series in six or seven games, that
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 1: would probably be acceptable at least as you know, especially
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 1: if the Lakers start getting players back. But to lose
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 1: the series like this and potentially get swept, I mean,
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 1: what the fuck are you doing? Dude. The Lakers shot
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 1: ridiculously in the first two games of the series, which
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 1: I thought, you know, those are both major major outliers. Rockets,
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 1: you know, in the third game probably should have won
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 1: the game. The Lakers did not shoot the lights out
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 1: of this game, and again the Rockets had more possessions. Again,
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 1: except you know, they didn't have as many trips to
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 1: the line. But the Rockets have been more field goal
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: attempts in every game in the series by twenty seven, seventeen,
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 1: and nineteen. Like, what is going If you have almost
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 1: twenty more field goal attempts in your opponent, you're basically
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 1: not gonna lose that game. And the Rockets have lost
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 1: all three games despite doing that. It's just completely insane.
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 1: The Rockets have won the rebound battle, I think in
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 1: all three games. This is just it's all ridiculous. It
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 1: is so ridiculous, you know, I don't even know what
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 1: else to say about it. But the Rockets are only
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 1: laying four and a half here now, and I'm still
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 1: gonna lean that way, even though the way they lost
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 1: the last game is brutal. But this is their last chance. Man,
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 1: they're the favorite. They can't go out like this. And
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 1: they've been the like based on what I just showed you,
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 1: they've been the better team in every game in the series,
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 1: based on how many shot attempts they've had and whatever.
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 1: So this has been one of the weirdest series I've
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 1: ever seen. I don't want to play the game because
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 1: it could be very defeating the way the Rockets lost
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 1: that game, But the Lakers are a dreaded public underdog
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 1: here sixty per ticket, sixty six percent of the cash
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 1: on them, the total is crazy low at two pH
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 1: seven and a half. Money is still hitting the under
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 1: in this game too. I mean, basically it was because
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 1: the Rockets can't score. But I don't think I would
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 1: want to try to go under that number. I would
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: not want to do that. I know the last game
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 1: was higher scoring because it went into overtime, but I
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 1: would probably lay it with the Rockets to try to
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 1: avoid the sweep. I mean, the last game they were
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 1: almost a ten point favorite, and now they're four and
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 1: a half. I think they're actually down to about eight
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, but still four and a half.
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 1: That probably does indicate the Lakers are getting Reeves back
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 1: in this game, though, Luca is not coming back yet,
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 1: even though I thought he would be the first one
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 1: of the two to come back because it seemed like
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 1: he was already ready. But there it might be smart
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 1: that the Lakers a arresting him. But again, do you
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 1: really want your reverse injured player spot with Luca coming
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 1: back to be against the thunder Uh? Probably not, So
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man. Assuming the Thunder finish off their
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 1: series against the Suns, which I think will happen, Reeves
• 1:57:11
  Speaker 1: is questionable, and based on this number, I think Reeves
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 1: is probably coming back. But then the question is, you know,
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 1: you're in a three to zero series, like, do you
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: think the Lakers are really gonna play him that much?
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 1: I think Reeves might come into this game off the
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 1: bench and not play that much, because it's what the
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 1: smart thing to do is is get him used to
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 1: the game again, you know what I mean, in a
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 1: spot where you don't really need to win the game,
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 1: get him used to it, and then work his way
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 1: back in. You know what I mean, Because it's your
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 1: reverse injured player spot here. So if that's the case,
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 1: the line definitely is overreacting to that. So it might
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 1: be a reverse injured player spot here. I think there
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 1: is some line value on the Rockets at that number
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 1: being that low, so I'm gonna lean that way, but
• 1:57:52
  Speaker 1: I do not want to touch it. You know, I
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 1: thought Game two was a good spot. Rockets statistically probably
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 1: should have been able to get that game, and it
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 1: still didn't happen. So that's it, man, that's the show
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 1: for today, the plays one more time. We've only got two.
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, but I gotta be selective here. We got
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 1: the Brewers on the money line in baseball avoiding the sweep,
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 1: and then we got the Calves. I like this one
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 1: a lot. Minus the points in the NBA. NBA playoffs,
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 1: you know, have been one of my strongest, you know,
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 1: like there it's like my strongest betting season or one
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 1: of them. So that's what we're doing here. I would
• 1:58:30
  Speaker 1: like to have more hockey plays. I just you know,
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for like outlier games where they were like
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 1: blowouts and stuff like that, and you just don't get
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 1: them as much in hockey. But well, yeah, hopefully we'll
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 1: get back to and we'll have some more hockey you know,
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 1: or those like two to oh, returning home types of things. Whatever.
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we'll have more. We'll see what happens. That's gonna
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 1: do it. Learn a tone on Twitter, learn a tone
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 1: on Instagram, Like subscribe to the channel here. We're losing subscribers. Man,
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on. I'm here every day
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 1: giving up some good info. Like let's get people back
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 1: on this train, man, Let's get up to five hundred
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 1: first and then go from there. Man, So tell everybody
• 1:59:08
  Speaker 1: about it. We're on audio Apple, Spotify. Listening there helps
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 1: me out. Reviewing helps me out over there as well.
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 1: Covered in you because my yuke channel on YouTube, I
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 1: know I gotta get more stuff going on there. I
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 1: haven't done much of it lately. Patreon dot com, slash
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 1: learn it to and I gotta pay more attention to that.
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 1: And then loser cast every Tuesday night, g spot Giants
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 1: podcast that I do, which we might have to do
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 1: a draft recap. I'll probably talk to Ben about that.
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 1: See if we're gonna do that, maybe get Adam nut
• 1:59:38
  Speaker 1: Er to come over and join us for that. And
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 1: I believe that is it. That's gonna do it. I'm
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 1: gonna have some lunch soon as well. Thanks everybody, Yes,
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 1: thanks sir, Thank you everybody in the chat. Mister Penzy,
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 1: Dirty Sock, Jamine, Josh, whoever else is in here, Kyle
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 1: Hindian hopefull didn't miss anybody. Was Tyson in here today?
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 1: I don't think he was, but hopefully I got everybody there,
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 1: Yes sir, all right, thanks everybody. Peace,