Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Tech Stock Rug Pull: AI Stocks Collapse! Is The Market Crashing? + Stock Market News 26 February 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Tech Stock Rug Pull: AI Stocks Collapse! Is The Market Crashing? + Stock Market News 26 February 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix in Winston here and the markets are crashing all around us, but we have Winston, so life isn't all that bad.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through the six key points here that most people don't understand and that'll help to make you feel calmer, make better decisions, help you make money and have a lovely day and go away with a smile, just like this guy is, although he's a bit miffed about Tesla.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Really yesterday, down 80%, are they mad?
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Well, let me share with you what I've got in stock for you.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through the following where we are in terms of fear Pretty extreme.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: We've got some bad news here.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: That's item number two.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: But how do we make money in a crash like this?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: I made some money yesterday, realized some profits.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I'll show you how, and I want to show you what part of big tech is now cheap, what the Fed will do because, yeah, they'll flip, and then we've got.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Well, how low can Tesla go?
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Winston had to sit down because it's just too much for him.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: He's got Tesla leap options.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: So what does it all mean?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: And if you find this information useful, then write six in the chat and that way I know that you want to hear all six of these points, and and and I know you're listening, I know you're there.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: So what have we got?
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Well, this is the cnn region fear indicator.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: We're actually going to build our own so that we don't need cnn.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: The only useful thing that cnn provides is this indicator.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Nothing else I've ever put out has ever been useful.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: So we're going to, we're going to build our, our.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I'm excited about that.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: But what happens in extreme fear?
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Well, people feel queasy, and what's been happening the last few days is that institutions aren't selling.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: That wall street isn't selling.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: They really are not.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Who's selling retail?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Retail is selling.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Who are normally.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: We relied upon as dip buyers.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: So what happened?
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Well, they got spooked, right?
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Well, they just got spooked.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: That's what happens when they get spooked they stop clicking the buy button endlessly.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Maybe they run out of money, I don't know.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: But what is the old mantra from Warren Buffett?
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: He says when people are fearful, be greedy.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: When people are greedy, be fearful.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: So, generally speaking, historically it's been a good time to buy stocks.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: But what about my stock exactly?
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: We're going to get to that in just a second.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: So, second item on the list, then this is the bad news, and that is that algo funds are selling.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Algo funds are also known as CTAs.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: These are computers and they are selling no matter what happens.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Literally, this week they're going to sell somewhere between $4 and $40 billion and over the next month they're likely to sell.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: If we go up a lot, if we really recover, they might buy a little bit $12 billion but if we are flat, they're going to sell $27 billion.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: If we go down, they're going to sell $193 billion.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Oh my God.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Well, that's the extreme scenario, right, it doesn't have to happen.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: But for this week.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it looks a little bit choppy.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Now, is there anything to set this off?
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Yes, buybacks are back in full force.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing reported from all the brokerage desks that buybacks are at like 92% of capacity.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: In my book, that is something like four to six billion a day.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: That offsets quite a lot of the selling right.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of like neutralizes it a little bit.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So it's still stable, but it doesn't really give us the support that we actually wanted.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: So that's the bad news out of the way, and you might be feeling queasy.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: A lot of people, you guys, have been messaging me saying Felix, I don't know what to do.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I'm going to use this.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I'm going up and now it's going down.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: What do I do about it?
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: And I was thinking, well, what's the best thing I could do to help you about that?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: And, honestly, what keeps me calm even in times like this?
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: I message my mentors and I say hey guys, what do you think about this one, what do you think about that one?
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: And we chat we just do it on WhatsApp, but for a lot of our guys, a lot of my students, they'll have one-on-one calls with mentors.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Our mentors are like chock-a-block.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: That's amazing.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: It means that they make better decisions.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: They stop themselves from doing the stupid stuff.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: By stupid I don't mean inept, I just mean our emotional response takes over and we are no longer the rational, beautiful, intelligent human being that is driven towards your goals, which is, I know, who you really are, because fear does that to us right.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: So fear creates a very odd response, but we can help people with that, and what I want to do for you here is we'll take an extra batch of students in this February and I've already talked to our team and they've made space for it and they say, yeah, we'll do it, we'll handle it, because people need help, because when things go down, it can be tough and you need to make the right decisions right now.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: So, what you can do if you want to explore that with us, you can literally hop on a call with my guys, and this is just there to explore whether this is something that's for you.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: You can book a free appointment and we'll walk you through everything, answer a thousand questions that you have and you can see whether mentoring is something you might want to do.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: And who are my mentors?
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Well, they're investment bankers, hedge fund managers, the guys who've done this for decades for institutions.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: And if you do decide to join us which you don't have to you get unlimited one-on-one coaching.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: You get weekly live trading.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: We run daily group sessions, even on Sundays.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: But how do you book an appointment with us which is completely free?
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Well, you go to phoenixfriendsorg slash freedom here and you just book a call.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Literally just put in like your name, and then the next thing step will be book a call, and then the next thing step will be book a call, um, and you can have a chat with us, and it might just be the thing that keeps you calm over this period of wobble, and then we're going to explore how long this wobble will likely last and what to do about it.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: But honestly, for me, like knowledge and and and getting that experience.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: And you know, I had a chat with one of my most senior mentors the other day and he was saying, look, oh, do you remember in 1991, when city bank was was on the brink of collapse?
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Like, yeah, we had a $100 million position in that and I'm like okay.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: So now this puts things into perspective and this guy probably knows a little bit more about crashes than I do, because in 1991, I was like 11 years old, so check that out.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I'll put the link down below in the description as well.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: The offer stands and we have made some extra spots available, as I said.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Now here is a way that we can make money in these situations, and this is a screenshot from Trade Vision, our trading software that I mentioned many times before.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: And what have we done?
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Well, you look at this chart of VIX.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: What does it do?
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Well, it typically moves between these lines right.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: At the moment it's moving between 15 and sort of 20, basically it's in that range.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: But what do we do?
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: At the moment, it's moving between 15 and sort of 20, basically it's in that range.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: What do we do?
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: And again, I showed you that guys live.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Not all that long ago, when we set this trade up, and what I did is when we were at about 15, I essentially bought the VIX.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Now I use it doing options, but essentially I buy the VIX If it goes up.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: What do I do the VIX If it goes up?
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: What do I do?
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Well, yesterday it hit almost 20.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: It actually went a little higher, it went to 21, but I sold around 20.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: So I sold here.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: So I made money on this going up.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: What's my next conclusion then?
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: Well, what goes up must come down, but only with this weird little VIX instrument, because the VIX instrument is a fear indicator that always goes down in the long run.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: That's the way it's set up.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: You don't need to go into the wise and the house, but it always goes down.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: So what did I do yesterday?
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Well, I sold, but the way again I do that isn't just by selling the thing, it's by setting up a trade that would make me money somewhere If we stay somewhere below that level.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: So below that level, I make money.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: How much money do I make?
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: About 57% on this trade if it stays below that level Now.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: In reality, it could break higher, but it'll only be up there for a couple of days.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Historically, we just don't ever stay at that elevated level for a very long period of time.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: So I've got a 50-day time period on this.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: And again, please don't try this at home.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: This is a complex strategy.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: You need to really understand this.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Honestly, for this you really need a mentor, because there is stuff to this that you don't see, and this particular setup I'm showing you right here also is only useful if you have a big account.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: You have a small account.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: We can tweak it to make it suitable to a small account and you can still make money on every crash and then on every recovery, which is what we do here.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: So literally what we do is we make money when it goes up, we make money when it goes down.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: It goes up again and it goes down again, and it goes up again and it goes down again, and it's just one of those beautiful things that makes me smile, because every single time when the market tanks, I'm like, yay, I can make money on my VIX trade and then I can make money as it goes down again.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: It's like pretty much a risk-free trade if you know how to set it up.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: And I say pretty much because you can screw it up, definitely you can screw this up, but if you know what you're doing, then it's just one of those things that just keeps on giving.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: And I just show this to you as an inspiration to show you, hey, if you put a little bit of effort in to actually learn how the market works, then you get rewarded with gifts like this, and Christmas comes every two months, which is kind of what happens for me, which is absolutely brilliant.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Now, what's actually expensive now?
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: What's cheap now?
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: So I'm showing you here the MAC7, the Magnificent 7 ETF, but you could you know that's basically the Magnificent 7.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: And the ticker symbol here is MACS M-A-G-S.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Again, this is inside Trade Vision, our software, and the lower chart is something called RSI.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Now RSI tells you is it overbought or is it oversold?
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Right now we're down here at 34.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: The last time we were at 34 was here and there, and look at the stock chart.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: That was here in august and then it was in april.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: So where those good moments to buy the Mach 7?
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: That was quite cheap, right?
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Quite a nice run up.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: So that's all I'm saying.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I'm not telling you to buy it, I'm just saying, look, it's pretty oversold.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Now what about the NASDAQ overall?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Because, generally speaking, the NASDAQ goes up in the long run, forever after, and this is why indices come in that are useful.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Again, we've got the RSI down here at 40.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: And the last time we were there was here and there, so that was in August and the dip slightly after that, and that was the Japan crisis.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So again, was it a good time to buy the Nasdaq at, say, 430?
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Would you be happy owning Nasdaq at 430?
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: We're trading at 515 right now, probably right.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: The time before that it was here in April.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Again, it was pretty cheap and there was some more down here, and that then takes us into the 350 range or so.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: So these dips are beautiful opportunities for people with a longer-term vision, good risk management and a decent understanding of the market here.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: So I think I'm quite liking QQQ here.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So what's the next thing?
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Is that the Fed.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: We're now expecting the Fed, and literally two weeks ago, we thought the Fed's never going to cut interest rates again, and if I say we, I mean the Muppets on Wall Street.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: They were like one cut is all we're going to get this year.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Well, now we're looking at what's that?
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Almost yeah, 2.5 cuts this year.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: And why does that matter?
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Because for every one cut, your risky tech stocks, your sort of ARK portfolios, could go up by about 2.5%, something like that.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: If you're going from one cut to two and a half cuts, what are you doing?
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Well, you're adding a cut and a half, so you're adding about 3% 4% to tech stocks, growth stocks.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: That's the expectation.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Now, I did say here that the Fed is they're always late, they always cut too little and then they overcut, then they cut too much and then they raise the interest rates.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: They're always late, they're always lagging and they always do too much.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: It's just the problem of hard not to do anything.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: It's the hardest thing to do for everybody, whether it's doing nothing.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: But this is positive.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: This is very, very positive.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: And this is going to creep into sentiment at some point when people stop freaking out and they'll be like ooh, really, we can get two or three rate cuts this year.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Ooh, that's nice, that's nice.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Let's go back to all-time highs.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: And then Let me show you this One of the reasons people are freaking out and scared is Bitcoin, and maybe you don't own any Bitcoin.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: That's fine, but it's one of those things that makes people feel good or feel bad.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: So the blue line here is good old Bitcoin.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: And then the green line is what?
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: The green line is money.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: How much money is out there?
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: This is called M2, which is money supply, essentially.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Well, they move together.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: So the whole amazingness of Bitcoin investors and traders yes, you're geniuses, no, you're not.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: The Fed prints money.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: You make money.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: It's very simple.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Same with the stock market, by the way.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: The Fed prints money.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: We all make money and we all think that we're really, really clever, but it's largely to do with money supply.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: There's a little bit more to it, but it's largely that.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: And what's happening right now?
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Well, what's happening right now is that money supply has dropped, which is why Bitcoin's going down.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: But guess what?
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Money supply is going to start going back up and I showed you a chart yesterday.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: We're starting to see that increasing.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: We're at the low point for money supply.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Money's going to start growing because the rates are going down and the fed's going to loosen policy again.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: They're basically hinted as much.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: So we expect, from march onwards particularly, that to accelerate, which would mean bitcoin will go up, which means people will feel happier, which when people start buying stocks again, and everything will be absolutely wonderful and even Winston will be happy.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: So there is quite a lot of good news out there, but people are sort of not seeing it because they're stuck in the oh my God, my Tesla is down 8%.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Well, you've got to zoom out and you've got to make decisions on what's a long-term buy.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: And here is Tesla, for example.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: And let me show you a little indicator on Tesla, and this is again.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: It's from Trade Vision.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: If you want to see a bigger version of this, we've got an indicator called MRSI.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: It stands for Mansfield, and the level that's at right now is here.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: Well, the last time we were at that level was here, which meant that Tesla was trading at about $210.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Now, if I'd asked you a week ago, would you like to buy Tesla at $210?
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Or even today, like $95 below where we are right now?
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: That probably seems like a pretty good entry point, right?
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: So again, I'm not telling you to buy Tesla.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: You got to do your own research but the safest thing would be to just buy an index, because, in the long run, indices go up, you're forgiven for mispicking stocks and so on, a bit riskier to pick individual stocks, but again, there are ways we can do that.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: That's a bit more low risk and potentially higher reward.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to keep buying Tesla LEAP options as they get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper, but if, and only if, volatility comes down a little bit.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to keep watching that and in the meantime, yeah, let's just load up on the good stuff, and that could be a NASDAQ ETF or something like that.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: I think that would be a reasonable thing, because in the long run provided you have a long run you're very, very likely to make money.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: But if you want to get some one-on-one mentoring and stuff somebody who's done this for a couple of decades look over your shoulder, look at your portfolio and be like well, let's look at this, look at that, how can we do this better, how can we diversify, how can we reduce risk and how can we really benefit from this situation Then let me give you that opportunity that you can hop on a call with us to explore if that's the right fit for you, because I want to make sure we can actually help you.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: I want to make sure you're in a position where you are open to actually being helped, because that's not everybody.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: And the way you do that is by going to FelixRensselaerorg.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: You can book a free appointment and we'll have a chat with you and see if this is something that could help you.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: And we've helped 16,000 people, which is absolutely amazing.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: I want to help more than a million people, so we've got a long runway to go, but I'm very excited to be here and do that with you and I'll continue to share my insight and my perspective every single day from where I'm sitting.
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: And the reason this isn't the live stream right now, as you've probably seen, as I'm putting the link here on on the screen so you can book a call felixrentsorg freedom while we still have call spots available, because I'm on a flight, and that's one of the beautiful things with financial freedom is you can literally just go oh, let's hop on a flight.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: I decided yesterday to fly somewhere for like two or three days and I'll be back live, probably from that location, and then again next week, and in the meantime, let's make some money.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: Got some value out of this video.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: What are you going to do?
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: What are you going to learn?
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: Right, it's not what you want to hear for.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: So go have a chat with us and see how you can learn faster, because that's really what it's about.
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: It's about speed and it's about you see, hard work is what people have been trained to do right, they've been trained to.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, let's just put in some really hard work.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: But with trading or with investing, it doesn't work, because you can be really active and you can lose all your money.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: In fact, usually the more active you are, the more likely you are to lose all your money.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: So this system of just knuckle away at it just really, really, really doesn't work.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: And you can read books, you can watch videos, but the problem is will always be well, what about now?
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: What about the market's crushing?
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: What about the feds doing this?
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: What about interest rates are doing now?
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: What about nvidia earnings?
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: What about?
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: You know, there's always this kind of uncertainty, and the way I got to where I got to is that, in those moments where my trades, early on, were not doing what I wanted them to do, I would have a chat with one of my mentors and be like hey guys, this was the plan.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: This is what's happening.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: What do I do?
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: How did I get here?
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: How can I prevent this from happening?
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: So I get smarter and smarter?
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: They've explained little bits to me and it sort of fell into place over time and it took me quite a long period of time that way.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: But what I'm seeing is that with our mentees and there's a lot of you watching here, so please put it in the comments how you guys are getting on to inspire others.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: They're not doing that, they're not experimenting, they're just looking for the proven strategy, and I think that's the smart thing to do and it's what I'd encourage you to do, because it'll make life happier, easier, freer, more relaxed and it'll help protect your money, and that's the number one thing.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Our number one rule is always risk management, risk management, risk management.
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: So check that out, have a chat with us at felixrentsorg freedom and I wish you a beautiful day.