Latest / UnDocked: The Maritime Transformation Show / What SMM 2026 Signals for Shipping, the Rise of the Meat Proxy, and the Return of the Spreadsheet
Transcript
- Nick Chubb: four years ago, it was sort of like a, you know, in one of the slightly dusty little conference rooms, there might be sort of ten, fifteen people sat having a chat about wind propulsion. And now suddenly, you know, not not far off fifteen, twenty percent of the conference floor is wind propulsion providers of all different shapes and sizes, Raal: and welcome to this week's episode of Undocked. Hello to you Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb: Hello to you, Ral Harris. How are you? You're looking very tanned. Raal: Naturally, I spent my last week when he was slaving at SMM on a beach in Corfu. so, did you? Nick Chubb: I shopped you in about that by the way. Because yeah, because people kept asking ev basically the first thing anyone would is, where's Raoul? And after a while I got fed up. so I just said, he's on holiday, he didn't think you were important enough He doesn't walk the halls anymore. Raal: Yeah, well, for those of you, for those of you new to this, for about five years, I was almost nailed on to be at every single maritime gathering, Nick Chubb: Why? Raal: somewhat contractually obliged, but also made it my business, let's say, to be everywhere. Yeah, Hamburg I love, I love spending time with German shipping community, SMM is not close to my heart, I have to say. But it was a good one for you, I understand. You said you had a good time. Nick Chubb: Yeah, it was great. It was I I think it's changing by the way, 'cause I I think it it it has previously been a very sort of engineering heavy show. You know, if you like engines and big bits of kit, it's a great show to go to. And there still is that. But I would say actually now the kind of digital, software the kind of alternative fuel stuff has has really, really grown over the last, you know, over the last two, to the point that I think it's it's now I would say a f pretty blended show. still with a kind of technical lean. it's definitely not it's not Posadonia in that everyone's kinda talking about where the market's at. but I think it's a it's it's it's a different show to what it was ten years ago for sure. Raal: That was good. That's good. mean, certainly it does, you know, gathers a crowd. That exhibition is impenetrable though. And you had, and you sort of undertook, you started a new venture with your run club. Nick Chubb: Ha yes. Yeah. Raal: This was publicized. Nick Chubb: My well, we publicized it on the podcast. Just shows Raal: Yeah. Nick Chubb: you the power of the podcast, right? We pub we put it on the podcast and there I was expecting throngs of people to turn up. Day one I was on my own. but but it did grow considerably over the over the two or three days. I think we peaked at about seven people at Run Club, Raal: There you go. Nick Chubb: which I'll I'll I'll I'll take. Raal: Yeah. Nick Chubb: and then it sort of tailed off on the Friday, perhaps unsurprisingly. Raal: Yes. Nick Chubb: But shout out to John and Ada from BAR Technologies 'cause they once they realized Raal: Yeah, I saw June. Nick Chubb: it was a thing, they were there every morning with bells and whistles on. More enthusiastic than me. Raal: Very good. Very good. Every integration RFP in shipping asks for a single source of truth. Almost no fleet actually wants one in practice. Why? Because as one operator told the team at Thetis, the moment you force everything into one platform, you risk sacrificing best in class functionality. The great integration, the new Thetis and GT Marine report, makes the case for something more achievable. A consistent view across the systems your teams already trust. Recommended reading for anyone running an integration RFP. Download it today. And you, you weren't just there. I mean, you, you had a lot of meetings and stuff like that, but you were also launching the Thetius Top 150. Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a it's a funny it's a funny show, SMM, 'cause I I personally find I walk round it and, you know, and you bump into someone and they're developing nuclear propulsion and then bump into someone else and they're they're putting sails onto ships and bump into someone else and they're doing sort of, you know, frontier AI research for the maritime sector and and I always kind of think simultaneously I'm s I'm sort of inspired, and then also slightly intimidated, 'cause when people ask what I do, I'm like you like podcasts? Raal: Hahaha Nick Chubb: It's not quite the same as being on the real cutting edge of the industry. but yeah, we have a we we have a podcast, we have a newsletter, and we have an annual report, Thetius, that comes out once per year celebrating the most innovative organizations in the maritime sector. So it's our Thetius Top 150 report. it's very, very competitive. particularly as you move away from the kind of startups category. W what we the the the complaint we get most often is from companies that are maybe have been in it two or three times when they were startups and then they go past their fifth birthday and they get categorized by us as small medium enterprises, which is the really, really competitive category. And then they drop off the list. And so we we tend to get a lot of complaints at that point. But we compile a list every year from there's about five thousand or so that we track. and then of Those 5,000 in the last 12 months we had around 1200 of them made a serious contribution to advancing innovation across the industry that kind of could have put them in the report. and then our analyst team has to take that list of 1,200 down to 150. and so as I say, it is genuinely very competitive. So we have 50 startups, which is companies less than five years old. 35 corporates, 15 not-for-profit and government companies, and and then 50 small and medium enterprises. And effectively we track their activity through the year, we track the contributions that they that they make to maritime technology and and to innovation. And then we also have that our NLS team also goes out and speaks to end decision makers across the industry. So I did check. We did 252 interviews in the last 12 months with Raal: Okay. Nick Chubb: industry. And all of that gets fed in to the selection for the top 150. so I if you like, I can give you my my kind of key trends that I took from. This year's report were a pretty good proxy for the kind of things I saw at SMM as well, which is a which is a good sign. if you like, I can give you there was kind of kind of five or six that I thought were thought were quite interesting. the first was Nuclear. We've talked about nuclear a bit on the show. but I think we've hit a bit of an inflection point when it comes to nuclear at sea. in the last twelve months Lloyd Register published a roadmap for the adoption of nuclear fuel. ABS produced a nuclear notation. And then we Samsung Heavy Industries, won the world's first type approval for a small modular reactor for an LNG carrier. and then Korea Shipbuilding won another for a container ship just a couple of weeks later. So we've gone from nuclear being, you know, the thing in the sixties to then totally dying a death. through the eighties and now we're sort of c you know coming through the 2020s, decarbonisation is still very high on the agenda, looking for a kind of a long term solution, and suddenly a lot of work is going in to kind of pave pave the way for for nuclear power across the industry. None of these ships have been built yet. I think it's important to say, but but it it is definitely there is now a path where twelve months ago there just wasn't one. Raal: In our first show, and I remember it, so I remember it really clearly because it was Nor-Shipping wasn't it? And Michael Nick Chubb: Yes. Raal: North of Lloyd's Register was delivering a presentation there. He'd just been handed Nick Chubb: Right. Yeah, yeah. Raal: some moments before. And he did a very, very good job of doing that, that horror moment when we have to deliver someone else's presentation. But Michael's Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: great, so he managed to lay out. But it was, they were sort of presenting it as a viable thing to be considering. And I remember at the time, it's a in my head, so it's June 25, that was still regarded as pretty much ludicrous. I mean, not that people weren't talking Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah. Raal: about it, otherwise Lloyds wouldn't have gone around doing the work they were doing, but it was completely off the table really, or seen as something that, yeah, maybe, but not in my lifetime kind of thing. And Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: it is amazing how, we've talked about it before, how quickly the pendulum swings in the alternative. fuels and propulsion space. it's fascinating to hear or to look at all those things together. You know, like you said, it comes up every now and again. But when you look at it in that as a trend now, it's starting to look Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah. Raal: like very compelling, it? And, you know, I'm not surprised. Nick Chubb: That actually Raal: I'm not surprised. Nick Chubb: That actually Raal: surprised. Nick Chubb: speaks perfectly to my second trend that that came out of of of of the 150 and and was definitely very visible at SMM and that's actually wind propulsion has definitely moved from this kind of demonstration level. We're pretty sure it works, we understand the principle of how it works, we've got ships that are trialing it, to now kind of full commercial rollout and scale out. So a couple of a couple of stats from the report. Bound for Blue, we've talked about before, raised forty-four million dollars to scale production of of their sales. Norse power has signed a deal with Costco to mass produce rotor sales. BAR Technologies has signed a deal with H D Hyundai to design their wings into new build ships, so they're now going sort of straight into the new build fleet. Raal: Yeah, I thought John looked happy in that photo with you. Nick Chubb: He, by the way, has invited us to try out their hydrofoiling electric boat. and that is the benefits of networking at seven in the morning, is you get invites like that. So I I will follow Raal: Nice. Yeah, very good. Nick Chubb: up with him and see if we can get get get a ride in in their boat. Smart Green Shipping has begun guaranteeing fuel savings because they've invested in a in a platform that makes it possible to measure them. And then BIMCO, I think you talked about this actually. when it when it happened, has Raal: Yeah. Nick Chubb: published safety management guidelines for wind assisted propulsion. So again, we've gone from like it was kind of if you go back two SMMs, maybe sort of yeah, four years ago, it was sort of like a, you know, in one of the slightly dusty little conference rooms, there might be sort of ten, fifteen people sat having a chat about wind propulsion. And now suddenly, you know, not not far off fifteen, twenty percent of the conference floor is wind propulsion providers of all different shapes and sizes, and th the the Chinese Raal: Yeah. Nick Chubb: yards that have adopted this technology. and it's it's just, you know, it's very much going going mainstream and and scaling up, which is really exciting. Raal: Yeah, what do you think, because I've got my view, I'm interested to hear you, what do you think has kind of been the tipping point for that sort of, because it is, it's ubiquitous now and that's happened very, very quickly. What do you Nick Chubb: That's a good question. I I guess there's an element of the fast fast follower about it. you know, no one in shipping really likes to be first. and there's probably some notable names that have been, you know, you know, Cargill, Odfjell as as good examples, either chartering or owning that that that have really sort of championed it. and I think actually those companies that have championed it have been very, very good at sharing their results. you know, pos positive, negative Raal: That's what I was going to say. think that the one, if you want to sort of see what kind of really moves the dial, I think the thing with with wind assisted propulsion was the investment case for it was very, very clear and the savings were very, they looked predictable. Nick Chubb: Yeah. Yeah. Raal: Do you know what I mean in a way? And I know that that's People will say, where wind is concerned, how can you ever be fully predictable? And when the great results that we've seen, the one that we've talked about a lot about Olympus, that Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: Odyrfale did, there was an AI element to that to be able to kind of hit the wind in the right way. we know, so when I say predictable, but let's say perhaps not predictable, but repeatable Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: and scalable in that sort of way. I think for me, it's like when you look at a lot of things, particularly where there's, we spend a lot of time talking about software, obviously. And the gains are sort of, know, there's a lot of stuff that's kind of there on the website as big sort of, you know, gains and stuff like that. But I think when people sort of dig beneath them, it's a little bit harder. You know, some of those gains are from efficiencies where Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: they're a bit harder to, you know, and you're going to spend it on this instead of this. you know, it's always, let's say, has to be sort of interrogated and studied. And wind seems to be a little bit more transparent and consistent in that regard. And I think that's what's ultimately made made people move. Nick Chubb: Well I think if you Raal: And of course as well, just sorry, Nick Chubb: That's right. Raal: just the other thing to say, we shouldn't overlook the fact that there are sort of market incentives as well to it, which is, you know, surely it wouldn't have happened without. Nick Chubb: Yeah, I mean I think the other aspect as well is if you know, if you take nuclear, that is a an emerging technology used in a relatively unknown way, although there have been some examples of of merchant ships that powered by nuclear. whereas wind propulsion, you we have done it for seven thousand years. So it this in the grand scheme Raal: Exactly. Nick Chubb: of things, the twentieth century's a bit of a blip. when it comes to wind propulsion. And so i to a certain extent I think Raal: Yeah. Yeah. Nick Chubb: there's, you know, there's there's an element of we do know this stuff works. Just never tried it at scale. Raal: Yeah, you remind me of when you make jokes that don't land. I remember the first time someone was talking about wind assisted propulsion and they were showing me this and I said, sales on a ship preposterous, know, joking. And the person I was with was like, no, no, I mean, it really, you know, really is possible. Yeah, Nick Chubb: Ha ha ha. You're too dry. my my next Raal: but yeah, good. What else? What else? Nick Chubb: trend is that the maritime industry's been doing AI since before it was cool. So AI appears about ninety times in the top one fifty. It's a ninety seven page report and AI comes up ninety p ninety times. however Agentic AI, generative AI, lange like large language models, they actually don't appear very often. So a small handful of times. Where it's being sort of heavily used is things like computer vision. it's in things like navigation and routing systems, and it's in things like predictive maintenance software. So we're talking like, you know, machine learning systems that were around and being used before the current boom in in in new AI coming to the market and before large language models became super popular, is actually where in the last twelve months at least. we've seen AI have a real genuine impact on the on the industry. and I think partly that's a you know a symptom of the fact that the The 150 and SMM has come round while large language models and agentic and genitive AI are relatively new, you know, sort of only really in the mainstream kind of two, three years at this point. so maybe in two years' time that will be different. but I think it's worth saying that the maritime industry has been on the forefront of the use of AI for some decades. and and I think that's prob that's worth celebrating. It's probably something that we we don't think about enough. Raal: Yeah, it's hard to say, isn't it? Because I don't really do anything outside of shipping industry these days. So it's hard for me to kind of, know, obviously speak to friends and stuff and, you know, similar stories of AI becoming a thing Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: in the workplace and stuff like that. So it's hard to gauge just how much it is. I don't think there are many industries where... it's become such an obsession so quickly and such a big part of the discussion. Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Raal: And I think that probably does speak to the maturity. If people weren't actively using it and actively putting it into policies and actually, and their strategies and all that sort of stuff, then I think we would have had that sort of, the same kind of little, what was the one, I was at a conference recently and someone, sort of said he was looking forward to all this AI hype going away, you know, just like happened with blockchain or something like that, you know. But Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Raal: you do get these things over the years in Marathon, my experience, you that become the obsession everyone talks about and then sort of disappear and blockchain is one of them. And I know that blockchain hasn't disappeared, but the obsession with talking about it is just now a bit of technology that happens in the background. But that hasn't happened with AI. Nick Chubb: For for what it's worth, I do think AI infrastructure is hyped. And I do think we're at a point where you know, I I I I think when is a case of timing, but well, that's an obvious statement to make, isn't it? When it will happen, I don't know. but I do think we're in something of an AI bubble. so exactly when that bursts, is is is the key thing to try and predict. but I think that bubble is all around infrastructure. you know, in in the same way that with railways there was a railways bubble, there was a dot com bubble where everyone was investing hugely into into into creating broadband infrastructure. And then what happens after the after the bubble bursts is the end users pick up the kind of long-term benefit. And I think we're going to have a similar kind of thing here. So I I'm I'm with you. I don't see AI going away anytime soon, if ever, but but I see it becoming sort of part of the core infrastructure that we all live with over over time. Unless you're a company that is building a AI infrastructure, in which case I think there is a quite a lot of heat in the market right now which will need to go somewhere. By the way, just a a a slight aside, do you want to hear my new my new favorite insult? it's calling someone a meat proxy. Raal: Yes this is what you know I said I was gonna there was something no no not what I was going to bring up but something I'd forgotten that I'd seen and I wanted to bring it was that yes it's wonderful isn't it yeah please bring up Nick Chubb: Okay. I saw it and I was just that is so good. Hang on, let me let me pull up the actual the actual definition. Right, so a a a meet proxy is a person who forwards AI generated text, code, or other output without reading, understanding or validating it. The person acts only as a relay between the AI system and the intended recipient. That is so good, isn't it? I I I'm so looking forward to using Raal: Yep, yeah it's beautiful. Nick Chubb: that r in the real world. I haven't I haven't yet had a chance, but but I will soon. Raal: Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a nice kind of adjunct to the meat Nick Chubb: Yeah, Raal: layer isn't it. Nick Chubb: exactly. Yeah, Raal: The implication I suspect that the meat layer is where the human is doing something useful in the process. I did posit to you a while ago, if you remember that. I was starting to get concerned that we might be entering an era where people are using emails to write AI, which is then received by, you Nick Chubb: by AI. Raal: received by, you know, no one is actually reading anymore. Yeah. Nick Chubb: by AI. Taking the meat out of it. Raal: I certainly think you can certainly see that on LinkedIn, you know. Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Raal: LinkedIn bots writing posts which are read by bots and replied to. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Fascinating. Good. Nick Chubb: Which are commented on by bots. All right, I've got I've got two more trends from SMM. One's quite interesting. just the kind of general role of class as as enablers of technology rollouts. I remember probably sort of ten years ago, just how difficult it was to knock on the door of class with new technology, to try and take it through some kind of approval system notation, anything that would mean a ship owner is sort of willing to willing to touch it. And Lloyd's Register, DNV, American Bureau, Class NK, BV, Korean Register, they appear kind of throughout the report as as enablers of of new and emerging tech through through type approval. So one one quite interesting story is Avocus, you know, who make the autonomous systems, they received a statement of compliance in October last year from ABS. in the January, so four months on, HMM ordered forty systems from them. and then in the April, four months on from that, DNV offered full type approval. So you can kind of see like the w when class functions well, the system works well to get new technology onto ships. And I and I think that's actually an important thing that is often overlooked and kind of taken advantage of as something that without it, you know, all all of this kind of innovation just sort of starts to grind to a halt. Raal: Yeah, I think it's like, you pause for a moment and think about classification societies and the role that they've played in shipping, it is not surprising that it took time for them to get to the position which you're gaining confidence that they're in now. These are very, very old institutions that started out going... going on board with a hammer, knocking around and checking that Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Raal: wooden boats were ready to kind of sail out to the Jamaica's Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: to pick up the rum. And so they're very sort of traditional, very conservative. And I think the willingness has been there or the recognition has been there for a long time, actually, around shipping's future being big digital component and it being a massive part of it. I think what's needed to happen is for them to work out how to bring these kind of these sort of very, very, let's say, corporeal physical kind of checks that they're used to doing and where the evidence is very clear and all that into these sort of digital realm and bringing in the right expertise to do that and the right systems. so yeah, I mean, you know, it's about it's about time, but it's also understandable to see what's there. And the other thing as well is that it's the business model that's needed to evolve within that as well. And whenever you're evolving business models, there's always a danger of you cannibalizing your existing business. And you've to be very kind of cautious about that as well. And I think I think they've they've all tried from different angles, haven't they, of how to sort of approach Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: that. Some of them wanting to then become suppliers of software themselves and then others kind of looking at the mechanisms by which they do it. And where they become those suppliers, they would also have to kind of ensure those firewalls between not being poacher and gamekeeper Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: and things like that so that they continue to approve other people's solutions and stuff. It's a very complex world. They're huge organizations, a lot of them as well, of course. interesting. Yeah. Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, I mean you can go up to a in one of these shows, you can go up to a you know, one of the classes artist stands and ask for someone and they'll just stare blankly at you because they've just never heard of the person 'cause there's five thousand people that work there. but I but I think you're Raal: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Nick Chubb: right. I think ten years ago it wasn't deliberate that class slowed things down. I just don't think the mechanisms existed. And I think it it could well have been the case that CLAS would become a gatekeeper of technology rather than an enabler. And I think credit where it's due, across all of the kind of IAC societies, I I I think they are really sort of getting to grips with you know, how to be quite efficient in it in assessing and approving technology for use at sea, which is which becomes very exciting. all right, w one more for you. It's guessing time, Raal what what is the best country to found a maritime startup? Raal: Well, on previous evidence, thought Singapore is the place to be, it? Nick Chubb: Singapore was in the top six countries overall. It just missed out on the top five. but actually yeah. you're Raal: Missed out on the top five. hold on then. Nick Chubb: gonna try and guess. Raal: And what's your criteria here? Just briefly. Nick Chubb: i num just number of companies on the list. W we're not more scientific than that. but but in terms of best place Raal: Yeah, okay. Nick Chubb: to best place to have a start up, which which country had the most startups from the list? Raal: the most on the list Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: is it going to be someone mad like Cyprus or something like that? Nick Chubb: No. No, it's actually exactly who you would expect if you if you know startups. It's actually the US still. Raal: Yeah I was going to say US but I thought it too obvious. Nick Chubb: Eighteen of the fifty startups on the list were founded i or or operate from the US. so e even though it's not a major maritime hub, it's such a major start up hub, that it that it just has that kind of kind of pulling power. Raal: The reason I suspected Cyprus is not that the companies are in Cyprus, it's just where they registered. Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Gotta love those tax benefits. Raal: But that's shocking that Singapore's out of the top five actually, because we talked about them and the way they nurture innovation and so on. Nick Chubb: Yeah, I mean if you do it on a you know, do it on a popul adjusted for population, and and Singapore will be far and up you know, it's i the fact that it's sixth on the list with a population of I think it's only something like seven million people. whereas, you know, the US has three hundred million. you know, it's it's so population adjusted I'm certain Singapore would be top. Hong Kong probably second. What about what about corporate innovation? Who who do you think read with a shout are the kind of top most innovative corporate organizations in the industry? Which countries? Yeah. Raal: countries. Well, I struggle a little bit with the criteria of innovation, because not everybody manages it the same way. I was actually going to try and get you to share some of your criteria for it, because... Nick Chubb: You're you're starting to sound like the people who are are in my DMs right now complaining about our definition of innovation. Raal: Well, how do you measure innovation? Yeah, I mean, what are we, you know, because it becomes particularly complex when it when you get into that corporate thing. Because corporate innovation is very often it's more about how they make their money than it is about like coming up with completely wild new ideas and stuff. But I realize I'm over complicating it for you. And I don't I mean, I Again, I would have thought it's probably still the US are probably still up there, but I'm guessing it's not going to be the US. But if it's not them, is it actually someone like Norway? Yeah. Nick Chubb: Very good. Norway Norway's up there. Norway, Japan and Korea are are kind of Raal: All right. Nick Chubb: fighting it out at the top of the at the top of the list in terms of in terms of Raal: Yeah. Nick Chubb: countries. Raal: See, my instinct was Japan because Japan is all, you we're big fans, aren't we, you and I? Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: And they're always right up there, but they don't scream kind of like innovation at the corporate level and, you know, in shipping at least, you know, like I know like a lot of companies relying on some very sort of old kind of systems. We talked about that and by that's not necessarily a bad thing. So I'm quite surprised to see them up there. Korea a bit less so. Nick Chubb: I I think there's more being done in Japan to enable manned autonomy than anywhere else in the world. You know, the the three large Japanese ship Raal: Right. Okay. Nick Chubb: owners have all at some point in the last decade kind of stated as part of their strategy they are pursuing manned autonomy. And there's a huge amount of R and D going on in Japan on manned autonomy. Raal: That's a very good thing that you mentioned there because that was my unconscious bias because I was immediately thinking about software and not thinking about hardware. Yeah. Nick Chubb: Right. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Raal: When you think new fuels and everything like that, it's very, you know, and the technology associated with that propulsion and so on, it's Nick Chubb: And then and then l last bit of geography, which I which I quite like is you know, a couple of little kind of standout hubs. So that so the Netherlands is the kind of key hub for policymakers, so not for profit government bodies, that would seem to favor in the maritime industry, seem to favour favor the Nether Netherlands, or at the innovative ones do. And then Germany. I was in SMM, I couldn't couldn't go to SMM and not not sort of look at what's going on in the German ecosystem. So really interesting companies. In fact we've we've had at least one of them on the on the show in the past, that has sort of become a a a key hub for startups built around regs. so you know you've got EU Raal: Mm. Nick Chubb: ETS and fuel EU and all of these types of incentives coming along. it is of course the Germans who would pick up on on on how to take those regulations and turn them into into software startups. So I thought that was quite cool. Raal: Yeah, yeah, also the sort of big innovation hub there of that famous maritime city Berlin. Nick Chubb: Yeah. Yeah. W which you know, I think w flagship founders have a lot to do with it, but you know, four or five interesting companies coming out of Berlin. Raal: Well, also, but also as well, it raises an interesting point because, you know, yes, it makes a lot of sense to be in a shipping hub. But actually, if your business is making software, it makes a lot of sense to be somewhere where a lot of software engineers Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: and, you know, innovative kind of types are. And of course, attracts that sort of thing. And I know this when I was at, you know, how important that can be. when you're in the US, for example, KVH was in Rhode Island, know, which fantastic place to live, Newport, Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah. Raal: Rhode Island is but not somewhere you wanna be when you're a young Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: person, you you wanna be out in California. So they always had that competition for talent with Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah. Raal: those sorts of places. And it is something you need to think about. Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah, a hundred percent. It's very, very true. well that that was my my findings, my takings from the top one fifty. it's not a it's not a sort of an analytical report. So that that's s s sort of what I picked out from it as I as I was sort of reading through. So I definitely recommend go Raal: Yeah. Nick Chubb: and download it from the Thetius website. it's it's it's worth a read. Raal: Yeah and it was interesting what you were saying there about the sort of the triangulation and stuff because obviously I've read your report many times never occurred to me to sort of interrogate you as to how it's like I just thought as long as I'm in it I don't care. Nick Chubb: Well there is a full there is a full methodology at the back of the report, which I find myself saying a lot around this time of year. Raal: Yeah, good to hear. That's good to hear. The other thing that I could see you were not idle. You said you were busy. Because the other thing is you were roving with your tiny mic interviewing Nick Chubb: I was. Raal: people. And I saw a few of them. I saw some good ones. There was some good predictions and trends that came from that. Our good friend Chris Avasano made the prediction that he, I think he said, His prediction was that the big innovations are going to be from combinations of hardware and software, which I kind of liked. That was good, Nick Chubb: Yeah. Thought that was good. Yeah. Raal: wasn't it? Yeah. And I agree with him as well. I think his point was that investors increasingly worried in an AI kind of environment about how quickly software can be replicated and you can be displaced, let's say. Obviously having a hardware component in the mix there is going to give you a bit of confidence, maybe harder. Nick Chubb: Harder to switch off. Raal: to get the implementation, once you're in, you're in, you Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: So that was one. Any other kind of, was there an overall theme that you noticed beyond that? Nick Chubb: Well the funny thing is, doing these these types of these types of events to sort of randomly asking people for you know, an opinion on the next year, everyone said off camera, it's gotta be AI, but I don't wanna say AI. So no one said AI. On camera. But everyone Raal: Hahaha! Nick Chubb: said it off camera as something they definitely don't want to talk about. which I found quite entertaining. what were the other interesting ones? Jo w one of my favorites, just 'cause I'm a big old geek, was a the guy in charge of drones for Bureau Veritas. and basically and so we we shot the interview next to a drone. so they use drones in surveying. and he's well the most interesting thing was like they've been using drones for some years now. But they've now got to the point where they've got really, really good at extracting useful metadata out of the drone footage. So if you just stick a camera on a drone, you need a human to then review the footage and you know point out the spots of rust or whatever it is that they're looking for, or they're cracking in the hull or anything like that. Whereas they've now got to the point with computer vision thrown on top, and they've done so many of these kind of drone drone-based surveys that they're able to collect the data to train a model to be able to spot it. And so it's Gone from something that was the primary benefit of using a drone was that it was safer and that you don't have to send a human surveyor you know down into an enclosed space. But now there's this secondary benefit coming through that actually it's become a really scalable way to get data off the ship and assess it to be able to kind of see where the ship is at. And I thought that was really, really fascinating. I haven't kind of clocked that as a as a concept. Raal: Yeah, interesting. Very interesting. Yeah, it's interesting what you were saying there about the the this sort of the sample that you got of people and because no one wanted to say AI, no one said AI. And the reason they didn't want to say AI because they thought everyone would say AI. This this is actually Nick Chubb: Everyone would say AI. Game theory at work. Raal: well, exactly so. and and if you remember, there was we talked about this a little while ago in the context of broking Nick Chubb: Right. Raal: and the fact that if everybody started, you know, seeing the same patterns information, everybody would load on some something which would then affect the market and then make the prediction untrue. You know, this is this these kind of unintended consequences that we have. But I think one of the things that was that reminds me of is a story that I was going to something I was going to bring up. And that was in the context of the SplashTech Digital Market Report of 26, Nick Chubb: Yes. Raal: which they've just released this month. So you can get it on the Splash24x7 website. And it's bringing together a lot of the different articles and things like that that they've got around these kind of themes, looking at shipping over the next five years. And... And one of the things that came up in there that I thought was really interesting was a guy called Matthew Talbot from Complexia. And Nick Chubb: That's the Hafnia outfit, right? Raal: Yeah, yeah, I think so. So the the thing makes the point that, you know, we've made many times in the show, we've talked about around the idea that AI might be able to clean up a lot of the sort of complexity and stuff that we see. But one of the things that he kind of talks about in there is the is the, let's say the lack of people going for the opportunity of all of the unstructured data around it. So we talk about what the distinction I'll make is we talk a lot about like all the data you can get from all the various databases that you've got, all the sensors, all this kind of stuff, this sort of pure data that you might look and put together. But he's saying, well, what about all of the other sort of less kind of clean data or less obviously related data from emails and all that sort of stuff and chats and all that kind of stuff? And the reason that he hits upon, which I think is really worth us thinking about is the a fact that the shipping world is intrinsically messy and things are constantly, decisions are having to be made on the fly, improvisations are having to be done. You're not always dealing with the most up-to-date information that you might want. You have lapses in connectivity where you have to kind of make adjustments and so on. And so what he's kind of saying in this is one of the articles in this report is about it being very dependent on context, the data being very, very dependent Nick Chubb: Right. Raal: on context. And so to your point, the example that you gave there is if you gave the qualifying context that everybody said, everyone's going to talk about AI, so I'm not talking about AI. So we know actually, well, everyone thought AI. We're able to kind of make those adjustments. And the same, there's the same problem here. If we're not aware of a lot of the contextual information that happens around the data that we're seeing, then we are going to leap to conclusions that may be entirely false. And you probably found when you're dealing with AI yourself, you can leave out a critical piece of information or context, it will kind of run with what it thinks Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: is the answer, you know, without that. And this is one of the reasons why the longer you work with an AI, the longer you, the more information it gets, the better it. gets at being able to kind of work with you because it's able to kind of make those sort of leaps and connections. So I thought that was a really interesting part that I saw in that report that I hadn't sort of seen before. There's a lot of things in there as you might expect that are really interesting, good articles, but they are things that you and I have Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah. Raal: talked a lot around as well in there. The other thing that I saw in there, which I thought was genuinely new, the kind of... also speaks to that sort of same point, that context point, is that where we have this environment where we're bringing together these disparate data sets to try and, and we've talked about the fact that AI has the potential to connect data points to it. It looks like this in one system, the data looks like this in another, and AI is able to bridge that and say, well, that's clearly, those are clearly the same things, and now we can work together and we can exchange this. That's been something we've talked about a lot. One of the things that's then inherent in that is if you've got all these various different points of data, points of information, where is the authority? And how do we decide if that data doesn't quite match up, given this backdrop that we said Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: that you may not always have the latest information, there may be things that are influencing the data that may not always be lining up. So there's this question then about the authority side of it as well, a data authority problem. So which source do we trust when they disagree? And an example that it gives in there is a sort of carrier versus the terminal, versus the customs, versus the AIS prediction. But it gives an example in the report of where, you you could, if you just purely rely on the data, you could end up having a sort of truck that's ready to go waiting when actually fact there isn't a problem. It's just the problem is the data isn't Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah. Raal: fully up to date. And where's the, you know, where's the authoritative source that you're working on to make it all work smoothly. Nick Chubb: Th Raal: Yeah, lots of good Nick Chubb: two Raal: stories in there, but those were two of the themes that I thought were interesting that I saw. Nick Chubb: Two thoughts from that. One is I think we have previously erred to seniority when it comes to authority. You know, so if if you need to make a decision and you want it to be right, or at least if you want to cover your ass, you ask the person above you. to to help make that decision. You've got two conflicting pieces of information you ask the person above you. I actually think increasingly now we will be having to ask the person closest to the front line of where the work is getting done. which potentially is is a kind of change in how, you know, organizations function. You know, so taking your example of a truck, you know, and it is is the truck there or not. Actually the the person then that that you know becomes the authority, quote unquote. i is probably the person who's kind of in the in the yard and can see physically is there a truck or not, you know, or becomes the person on the ship, who can see physically you know, w what w what the actual reality is, 'cause everyone works on their own kind of version of reality based on the data they have in front of them. And they I I agree they don't always match up. But I think now it becomes a case of pushing Raal: Yeah, I Nick Chubb: decision making as close to where the work's getting done, instead of going up Raal: Yeah. Nick Chubb: through a kind of rank system, if you see what mean. Raal: Yeah, think that's less of that, that is actually comes through in a in another one of the articles, which if we get time, maybe we talk about. What I think this is really talking about is like we've spoken about this before. You've had this sort of system of walled gardens, which which fundamentally, you you've got the vessel, you've got the port, you've got the various stakeholders and they're all working with their systems and their information and they're they're exchanging. they need to exchange. And largely speaking, it hasn't really mattered because they're all sort of autonomous in the old fashioned sense. Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah. Raal: It hasn't really mattered so much. But as soon as we start to recognize, this is one workflow and we can bring this workflow together as long as we start to exchange data, which makes a lot of sense. So I think where he's going in the article there was really about when you're starting to connect different systems have their own authorities within them. you've got, yeah, between say the port and the vessel, for example, Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: you that they don't have a chain of command which goes across the two of them. And they might be receiving lots of data from lots of different areas as well. But I think the more interesting comment that you made around the hierarchy side of it. I think that does definitely come into play and it's talked about in the report as well as a separate kind of consideration. It's one that you and I have talked about quite a lot around what does this mean for the skills of the people that are then interpreting that data. And it is there in this report, it comes across quite strongly. You know, it's one thing to be teaching the ability to be able to work with digital systems on a kind of like, do I understand the application and those kinds of things? Do I have that sort of level of digital literacy? But the real kind of digital literacy that we should be thinking about and talking about is people being able to understand and interpret information and understand when they can rely on that information, when they cannot. as those systems become more and more authoritative in the sense that they have all the latest information, have all of the, Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: they have all of regulation available to be able to process to them all best practice, all the latest guidelines. And there's little old you, you know, when you, when you are ready to stand, stand up and to question that and all that sort of stuff. And I think having an understanding on how these systems work and Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: how they arrive at the conclusions that they do and understanding their fallibility, let's puts you in a much better position to be able work with them. to also as well to your point about the meat proxy, your job is not to pass that information on. Your job is to actually use it to critically evaluate Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Critically evaluate it. Yeah. Raal: it against your calibrate it against your own inputs and what you can see. And so your point about you know, actually relying on people who are as close to the action is a good one, I think. Nick Chubb: I think I've said this before on here, but I I remember in college being taught critical thinking, and at the time thinking this is such a waste of time. When am I ever going to use this in my life? Like I'm learning to drive ships. Why do I need to why do I need to think about critical thinking? and then lo and behold, here we are 15 years later, it's become possibly the most important skill th for anyone to have in in the modern world. So that all worked out quite well. Raal: Yeah but that was done as part of your sort of shipping qualifications. Nick Chubb: Yeah, well it was, but it it was done as it wasn't core to the it wasn't a hard skill, if you like, quote unquote. it was Raal: Yeah. Nick Chubb: it was a kind of soft skill that was tacked on the end so that w we could get a foundation degree instead of an H and D, I think was the Raal: How fascinating. now that is, well, it's not only considered to be a critical skill for seafarers, it's pretty much anybody in Nick Chubb: Anyone. Yeah. Raal: any kind of job now, critical skills, critical thinking skills. Yeah. Nick Chubb: In retrospect I'm deeply grateful and apologies for my behaviour in class at the time. Raal: Well, the article in the splash deck report, was just pulling it out there while we were talking so remember it. Yeah, what's the most important future skill maritime academies don't teach today? And it converges around the idea of digital judgment. Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: So that's kind of, it takes critical thinking, one next stage to digital Nick Chubb: Yeah, that's good. Raal: judgment. There's Duolog. There's Duolog that are cited in here. They've done a survey, 300 seafarers and senior officers. with 20 years, let's say, little AI resistance, 50 % already experimented with AI. So people are, know, the problem is not curiosity in the technology itself, but it's that trust, it's that source control and information overload that we've talked a lot about that. Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah. Yeah. My my my other thought that came out of that was around kind of like throw throw away spreadsheets. so I I feel like we've we've now got to a point where, yeah, okay, vibe coded complex software that's mission critical, don't touch it. Stick with real software that you know that's supported and all that sort of stuff. That that makes sense and I think people are kinda bought into that. but what possibly used to be a, you know, a kind of micro SaaS that did a kind of a a specific thing. I feel like we've got to the point now where the likes of Claude is just so good at creating quite advanced models in spreadsheets that are integr you can interrogate them, you can kind of see where everything's sourced, you can work out the logic of them after they've been delivered. Th I I probably, you know, in the past would have either had to get a data analyst to do that sort of thing for me, 'cause I don't have the skills. Or w if it's you know, financial modelling, I'd have to get an accountant to do it for me. And it might take two weeks. Whereas now something like that can be whipped up in fifteen minutes. and I and I just think we it we' we're potentially kinda getting to a point where, you know, anyone kind of kind of well, maybe anyone who has the right level of critical thinking skills, can can create this sort of stuff. and and you th that kind of real kind of bottom end of the SaaS market I actually see being having spent the last ten years trying to get people off spreadsheets and onto specialist SaaS tools, I can now see a world where we actually go back onto spreadsheets because they can be manipulated so easily by generative AI tools. Raal: Yeah, interestingly, as I mentioned, I was in a forum recently with Seafarers Chatham House forum. we did nothing was published or anything and no names mentioned or that sort of stuff. But it was one of the applications that Seafarers had for AI big time was working with spreadsheets, building them in particular, very time consuming and boring thing to do, isn't it? Nick Chubb: Mm. Raal: And also then using them. to, you when you want to generate your reports and graphs and that sort of stuff. I think there's two problems, I think, with what you're saying. One is just the fact that it does mean that you need to be watertight in the policies around what data you can share, because inevitably in spreadsheets, Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: nobody puts non-essential information in spreadsheets or non-proprietary Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Raal: information or whatever. So it's one, you've got to be really super clear about that. Most people's policies prevent that, you know, so there's some ways to go there in terms of it. And then the other one is just the the the obfuscation of it. You know, you've got your data here, you've got your visualizations there in a spreadsheet. If you if you I've never mastered this, but the ability to actually create these visualizations within something like Excel and stuff. And you know that, you know, you know, there's a It's directly related, isn't it? When you're doing this with AI, in my experience, it requires quite a lot of trust and what you're seeing. So the ability to be able to kind of go and interrogate that and triangulate that, make sure that it kind of makes sense is really important as well. So that confidence issue is maybe a bit of a problem. But beyond that, I'd agree with you 100%. It does reverse what you were looking to do. Nick Chubb: Trend. Raal: Because when you think about like why What was the big difference between in most maritime software getting people off spreadsheets and into piece software? A big, big part of that was being able to do customized reporting. Nick Chubb: Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Raal: You know, get good visualizations of Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: what was otherwise an enormous headache. The other thing to say is I should just caveat that as well. It is entirely possible to make very small errors in a spreadsheet and have. Nick Chubb: Have a Raal: just as much chaos as you can have by the AI. Nick Chubb: a have a have an addressable market be ten ten X out. Raal: yeah yeah exactly yeah yeah you thought you'd struck gold didn't you yeah Nick Chubb: been there. Yeah. Raal: We're all going to be rich. Yeah, Nick Chubb: Okay. Can I can I give you what I think is one of the most heartwarming and life affirming stories I've I've I think I've ever seen. So open up a new tab. And go to ordinaryabundance dot com. And just tell me what you see. Raal: Well, is sort of very, it looks like a sort of, know, magazine in the times on Sunday or something like that. a kind of, yeah, Nick Chubb: You gotta sort of Raal: sort of, yeah, modern kind of mid-century living. Nick Chubb: art decoish apartment. So Raal: Yeah, well, I say I would call that mid-century myself, but yeah. Nick Chubb: would you? Okay, well you know more about that than than than I do. But this is a project and I just if just if if you if you have twenty minutes spare, even if you don't actually make twenty minutes spare and go to ordinaryabundance dot com and just take twenty minutes and read through the entire article. because it is essentially what it does is it goes round this mid-century apartment. And it picks out all of the different things that we just take for granted in our modern life, and then quotes someone talking about when the thing was invented and they first saw it. and it c click Raal: is that what's happening? I was just kind scrolling. Nick Chubb: off it, actually. I I'll I'm gonna do a little I'm gonna do a quiz with you. You love my quizzes, I think. Right, tell you what I'll I'll tell you Raal: All right I do, I do. Nick Chubb: what I'll do is I'll read a quote from this. And then you can tell me or you can take a guess at what they're talking about and when it and when it was said. And it's something in that Raal: And it's something in that room, is it? Nick Chubb: apartment. Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, the first one then. the people, almost with bated breath, stood overwhelmed with awe, as if in the presence of the supernatural, the strange, weird light, exceeded in power only by the sun, yet mild as moonlight, rendered the courthouse square as light as midday. Raal: Not ready, Brick, is it? Nick Chubb: It's not the ready break. It is. Raal: Yeah. Nick Chubb: It's the electric light. and that's a Raal: Yes, that's what it Nick Chubb: a witness in eighteen eighty at Wobosh, Ind Indiana, which became one of the first Raal: Amazing. Nick Chubb: cities lit entirely by electric light. all right, another one Raal: Amazing. Nick Chubb: for you. The very shadow of the person lying there fixed forever, I would rather have such a memorial of one ideally loved than the noblest artist's work ever produced. Raal: It's like an early photograph, isn't it? Nick Chubb: Yeah. In eighteen forty three, a r a remark by Elizabeth Browning on seeing the first daguerreotype preserving Raal: Yes. Nick Chubb: a likeness used to require a painted portrait. Many families had no accurate image of relatives who had died. Isn't that mad? Raal: So the theme here is these are all things that you have in your apartment that you take completely for granted as to the complete wonder of them in a historical kind of context. Nick Chubb: A and yet there was a time before they existed when they were Raal: Yes. Nick Chubb: just totally beyond imag imagination. I like this one. Let me do this one with you. Raal: Yes. Nick Chubb: Like lovers' kisses she biteth. She is a pleasure bordering on pain from the fierceness and insanity of her relish. Raal: That sounds exciting doesn't it? Nick. Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: Read it again, just for my amusement. Nick Chubb: Like lovers' kisses, she biteth, she is a pleasure bordering on pain from the fierceness and insanity of her relish. Whatever's going through your head is not that. Raal: my god. Yeah, it's not Branston Pickle is it? Nick Chubb: It's actually not far off. That is Charles Lamb speaking in eighteen twenty two, on the consumption of his first pineapple. In eighteenth century Raal: that amazing. Nick Chubb: Britain a pineapple was so costly that hostesses sometimes rented them for the evening rather than eating them. So it was just a thing to look at. So very, very rare that anyone ever got to eat a pineapple. and obviously very exciting if you did. Raal: You wouldn't want it to be the third or fourth person that had the rental, you? Well, they last for ages, don't they? But even so, Well, actually, Yeah, go on. Nick Chubb: I'll do one more. I'll do one more. it is said that these things come from the earthly paradise, for the wind blows down the trees in paradise, just as the wind blows down the dry wood in the forests of our own land. Raal: trying to look at this apartment, see if I can spot. Nick Chubb: Shall I put you out your misery. That is that is Raal: Yes please I've no idea. Nick Chubb: Jean de Joinville writing in thirteen nine on merchants who brought ginger, cinnamon, and rhubarb back from the Nile. So basically, it's the it's the spice rack in your Raal: think what the guy did. Nick Chubb: kitchen that costs Raal: I see. Nick Chubb: That costs it what what does it cost these days? Fifty nine pence or something for a jar of spice? In medieval prices a pound of ginger sold for the price of a sheep, a pound of saffron sold for the price of a horse. Raal: and gave him wind, which is interesting. Nick Chubb: Yeah. credit to Jordan Dwarkin, who actually put this website together, the things that we just don't even think about in our modern world that cost us sometimes just cost us pennies, were at one point an utter marvel to everyone on Earth. And the industry that made all of that possible, of course, is the maritime industry. And s seafarers plying their trade today mean that we can have pineapple for breakfast, rather than having to rent it for our parties. Raal: very very good very very good point. Yeah, no, it's good. And I mean, it is incredible, isn't it? It's sort The whole kind of website that you've drawn my attention to there and it sort of sent me off on a reverie of kind of feeling how enormously entitled. There's a Jimmy Carr, I'm not a massive Jimmy Carr fan, but there's a piece I've seen him do where he talks about the fact that you can have a hot shower, you know. Nick Chubb: Yeah. Raal: It's just like, it would be a marvel to everybody that's ever walked, you know, before Nick Chubb: Yeah, yeah, yeah. We we Raal: you, regardless of their wealth and regardless. Because I think often, you know, we often look at our lot, don't we, and sort of feel hard done by somehow, you know, and of course we live in an Nick Chubb: We live like kings. Raal: uncertain age and there's lots of things to be worried about and so on. But in real terms, we are enormously privileged and As you say, a very, very big part of that is thanks to the World Trade that we are very proud and privileged to be part of. Nick Chubb: Well on that note, Raal is off to go and write a novel about the year three Raal: Mmm. Nick Chubb: thousand and I very much look forward to reading it. have a wonderful week everyone. Raal: Yeah. Nick Chubb: and yeah, thank you very much for tuning in on this miraculous device that that brings you our voices wherever you are.