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COLLEGE FOOTBALL: WEEK 3 RECAP & WEEK 4 BREAKDOWN · Mike Check - A College Football Podcast

• Jackson: Hello everyone, welcome back. My name's Jackson, that's Davis, and this is the Mike Check Podcast. Davis, what's going on? Davis: It's going well. How are things going for you? Jackson: Good, good. We're finally getting the hang of newborn, you know, era and you know, getting into the meat of football season, so life Davis: Yeah. Jackson: life is good. Weather's getting a little better, so so yeah, things are good. Davis: Finally felt like fall. Jackson: I know, today was nice. I got my hoodie on, Davis: Yeah. Jackson: even though it's still like seventy eight degrees, but feeling good, feeling good. I saw Davis: Yeah. Well I'm excited to talk about some of last week's games, some of this week's upcoming games. We got a lot to talk about. It's gonna be a it's gonna be a big pod. Jackson: Yeah. We're only only dropping one pod this week. There's a story about that that Davis will address here in the in our next segment. But Davis: Yeah. Jackson: since we got a lot to go over, we'll go ahead and go ahead and jump into it. All right, starting off with winners and losers from last week. Davis, I'll let you kick it off. Go for it. Davis: Yeah, so you might be wondering why we're only doing one pod this week. And that's because of my big loser at the bottom, which is the record button. We recorded such a great episode for y'all a couple of days ago, but I won't name names, but w one of the one of the people on this podcast forgot to hit record, so we're having to redo it. Jackson: Look, I'll say this. So what happened was we got about twenty Davis: What had happened was Jackson: what happened was we got about twenty to thirty minutes into the podcast. And Davis here's Mike decided that it didn't want to work anymore. So we ended that recording and we decided to start another I guess, you know. We start decided to start another recording. And then we just started rolling from where we left off and I forgot to click record on the second. segment of that pod which was like fifty something minutes long. So we get to Davis: Yeah. Jackson: the end, you know, we're signing off. I didn't even realize it until I was gonna click the button to stop recording and we realized that we did not record any of that 50 minute segment. So just one pod this week. We could I could not stomach doing what we did all over again. So Davis: Yeah. Jackson: sorry about that. That one's on Davis: Yeah. So about a hour plus of content. We'll see if we can get that done in in twenty minutes so that this isn't a two and a half hour podcast with last week's recap and this week's preview. Jackson: All right, you wanna you wanna skip up to your winner now so we can get rolling? Enough enough beating on me. Let's let's get Davis: Yeah. Jackson: let's get let's get moving along. Davis: Yeah, big winner, Buster Faulkner. Florida dominated. the score on the scoreboard wasn't as close as the actual game indicated. Faulkner had a great game plan, schemed up some some great looks for his playmakers, obviously did well running the ball. So big winner to future head coach Bus Buster Faulkner. Jackson: Alright, my first winner was Ole Miss. Not a lot to be said here. get the win against former head coach Lane Kiffin. a lot of motions in Oxford last weekend, so I felt like it'd be wrong not to have Ole Miss in as one of my winners. So give me Ole Miss as my first big winner of the weekend. Davis: Why don't you stay in state here and go with your next winner? Jackson: Alright, well, Camario Taylor. Davis, I think you alluded to this a couple weeks ago. he's making himself a lot of money. I know people are saying that he's probably gonna stay at Mississippi State just based off certain comments he's made, whether it's like post-game interviews or social media stuff, but either way, he's gonna make a lot of money at Mississippi State or he's gonna make a lot of money playing at another big power school. So he's my second. Davis: Yeah. my big loser is CJ Bailey. don't know if y'all caught the end of that game, but essentially NC State was up three with about six seconds left. They're on about the three or four yard line. all they have to do is take a safety and Either the time will run out or there'll be one or two seconds left and they'll, you know, do the safety punt and time will expire. CJ Bailey had two jobs. One was catch the snap, and the next was to take a safety. He did the first job, and instead of taking the safety, he tried to kill a little more more clock, kind of scrambled around, like ended up looking like he tripped and then got hit. Fumbled the ball. Vanderbilt recovered in the end zone for a touchdown to win it. just a devastating loss. There was a a stat that teams that were up that were winning had the ball and it was less than six or seven seconds were 1046 and two, and this was the third loss. other two being the Oklahoma State game where Mike Gundy called just a throw out of bounds. Time ended up expiring, but it was an intentional grounding. The other team hit the Hail Mary. and then the other game was the infamous Michigan botch punt against Michigan State. So crazy ending. for my next winner, I'll go state of Kentucky. Kentucky had a big win over Texas AM. Will Stein already, you know, kind of hit the ground running. statement win in his first year, so that's big. And then Louisville had a huge win against SMU. really kind of cemented their status as probably the second best team in the ACC. A lot of games to be played, but Definitely a big win for them in that game. Jackson: All right, my first loser I had Arkansas. I don't know if you guys saw the the stands before the game. That was that was sad. I'm I they they're giving up on that coach, I feel like, or at least the program a little earlier than I think they should. I mean it's a new coach. He's only had three games under his belt and and to protest going to the game like that I think is just kinda sad. You know, Arkansas has money. Like You just hired a new coach. It should be Davis: Yeah, they have some big donors. Jackson: Yeah, I mean it should be an exciting time in that program. Like you get to start fresh. You're not my second loser is Florida State. They're begging to fire their coach and that's what Davis: Who wishes they could start fresh? Jackson: Right. I mean, I don't I just feel like it's the wrong time to be doing what they're doing. Like not going to games, not supporting the team. Davis: Yeah. Like what change do they want? They already changed the head coach. You don't know enough those three games to to be where they're at. So it didn't Jackson: Yeah. That's right. Davis: make any sense to me. You got golf courses that are doing promos that's like half off a round of golf during Arkansas games. Just crazy. Community Jackson: Yeah. Davis: fans, everybody involved. Jackson: Yeah, and it's like I mean keep keep this in mind. I mean Nick Sabin went seven and six his first year at Alabama. So it takes time. It takes time for for that coach to get the right guys in there. I know things are different with the transfer portal now, but still, it's it's gonna take a little bit of time. So come on, Arkansas. Be better than that. other loser, as I mentioned, Florida State fans. I think Norvell played that game against Alabama a little too close. so I think he may have bought himself some time. I know Florida State want fans want him out as fast as possible, so they are my my next loser for the week. Davis: All right. I like it. Jackson: Alright, game recap. Obviously the big one, LSU twenty four, Ole Miss thirty two. Thoughts on this one, Davis? Davis: Yeah, this was a a fun one. Definitely lived up to the hype. Ole Miss actually built a 17-0 lead and went into halftime 24-7. So kind of looked like they were running away from it. Trinidad Chamberless looked amazing, ended up passing for 363 yards and two touchdowns. but LSU responded, ended up tying it up. In the fourth quarter, only for, you know, Trinidad Chambless to kind of cement his legacy and take them down the field and had a game-winning touchdown run and then went for the two-point conversion and and they got it. did leave some time on the clock. LSU did drive, but ended up stalling out on fourth down inside the 10. Jackson: Yeah, it seems like the media and everyone else is finally starting to come around to my Trinidad Chambless as the best quarterback in the in the league, take. So Davis: Yeah. I think I'm there. I think I'm there. Jackson: He's good, man. He's good. All right, we'll move Davis: Yeah. Jackson: on. Davis: Yeah. I will say Ole Miss has won fourteen straight home games, which is now the second longest active win streak. Jackson: Good for Pete Golding. He's getting it done. A lot of people kinda doubted him, including us, I think, on that SEC show that we did. Davis: Yeah. Already won more big games than Lane Kiffin. Maybe. Jackson: Yeah. I mean if you think about it, he ha I mean he's he's won cultural playoff games, this big rivalry game against against Lane and Lane kind of took Ole Miss from the middle bottom tier to kind of the upper tier in the SEC, but in terms of winning like the big ones, I think I think Golding's got him. Davis: Yeah. They definitely didn't start on like like Pete Golding started on third base essentially. But yeah, hard to argue with what Pete Golding's done so far. Jackson: Right, SMU thirty one, Louisville forty one. This one was you could argue a season saver for Louisville. I mean, you get two losses right off the bat. your college football playoff chances kinda go not to zero, but but they get pretty slim. Right. Right. They get pretty Davis: You essentially have to win the ACC. Yeah. Jackson: slim with a loss here, especially at home. Against a team that will probably be pushing you for that second spot in the AC C championship game, Davis: Yeah. Louisville Jackson: go Davis: doesn't have a conference loss, but does have the tiebreaker over SMU. So that's essentially a game and a half. if if Jackson: With that yeah, with that big of a conference with all the weird tiebreakers having a head to head against a team that's gonna be right there with you at the end is it'll it'll definitely pay off, I think. Davis: Yeah. This w this was a fun one though. This game featured seven lead changes. So I'm it was back and forth the entire time. Louisville was able to have success through the air, through the ground pretty consistently. SMU was kind of the opposite story. They kind of struggled to move the ball and then they'd hit a big play. And then they'd kind of struggle to move the ball and then they'd have another big play. so kind of got yards in two different ways. this game kind of turned when Louisville forced to fumble. in the fourth quarter and then SMU essentially got the ball back, scored, pushed it to two score game and after that it kinda kinda stayed at ten, tennish the rest rest of the fourth quarter. Jackson: Yeah. The three turnovers for SME was killer. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. And Jackson: They're a good team. They're a good team. They can win a lot of games. So I'm not down on SMU yet, but losing losing to a team like Louisville definitely stinks. equal caliber team, like I said, could be could matter a lot here come late November. Davis: Yeah. Keen Hulse really settled in. I've been impressed with him. You've really been able to see just the growth really from the very first game that what was it, Sunday night against Ole Miss, or it might have been Monday, but really was not settled in in that in that first half, but ever since then just been really impressed with just his composure and then obviously running the ball as well. Jackson: Alright, next game, Mississippi State forty one, comes back to beat South Carolina, forty one thirty four. as I mentioned Camaro Taylor's making himself a lot of money. Big comeback in the second half from Mississippi State. Additional thoughts on this one, Davis? Davis: Yeah, South Carolina jumped out to a sixteen lead, looked solid in hand. Camario Taylor actually threw an interception on his first pass attempt. but really the tide kind of turned when Mississippi State had to settle for field goals in the red zone. Mississippi State was able to kind of chip away and then ran away with it late off the back of Camario Taylor. Jackson: Yeah, t two teams with some big games this week, so we'll we'll get into that Davis: Yeah. Jackson: a little bit later in the Davis: Hu huge win for Mississippi State. I will say very devastating loss for Shane Beamer. Really needed that one. I know his seat's getting hotter as the season goes on. Jackson: All right, next game. Florida forty four, Auburn thirty nine. I will let you roll with this one, being an Auburn fan. What'd you see? What'd you think? What happened? Davis: So I gave I gave a a rant about this when we thought we were recorded last time. And I just don't know if I have it in me to Jackson: I actually ended on this, isn't it Davis: give another rant that just is gonna piss me off, but I'll go for it. All right, forty four thirty nine, five point game, but really Florida came out hot in the second second half, scored I believe 21 unanswered. going into the middle of the fourth, it was really 44-21. So Auburn did make it look better at the end. It really just boils down to just how well Florida's offense looked. They were able to do whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted. Jaden Baugh had himself a day. Auburn's defense looked as bad as I've ever seen it under DJ Durkin. I believe Auburn had 24 missed tackles, which that's that's crazy. that's the highest number of miss tackles for an Auburn defense since 2013. So just all-time bad performance on the defense. yeah. Florida's offense looks legit. I Aaron Filo has impressed me. They don't ask him to do too much, but with the way that Buster Faulkner runs his offense. Just so much motion, so much shift, so much play action really makes it easy on the quarterback. and yeah, they're a well-old machine, and that offense is is clicking right now. The defense struggled, so it'll be in Florida's defense, that is, struggled, so they'll be in for a test this weekend against Ole Miss, but Yeah, poor poor performance from from Auburn and just dominated by Florida. Jackson: Next game. Houston twenty-six, Texas Tech twenty-eight. This is a game I really thought Houston could get. they go up ten zero. I'm thinking we may see an upset, but but Texas Tech ended up storming back late. Houston had a chance there late in the game, but was not able to get the job done. Davis: Yeah, speaking of bad starts, I think Texas Tech had negative yards in the first quarter. started off as bad as you could, ended up kind of clawing back. Houston scores a late touchdown at the very end, misses a two point conversion by an inch inches Jackson: If that, yeah. Davis: if that yeah. But this was a fun one. Jackson: Yeah, Texas Tech, I mean, they're gettable. I know it feels like we're doing this all over again, 'cause I guess we are, but Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I I just feel like they they're not all that they lived up to be. I think the defense is not as good as we thought, or at least it's not what it is what it was last year. So I know we also talked about already that that they don't really play any you know this is probably the hardest game they had on their schedule. So Davis: Yeah, and we have the panic meter and so I give a little bit more of a a breakdown with Texas Tech, if you wanna save it. Jackson: Yeah, we'll yeah. I forgot about that. We'll move on. All right. Florida State 36, Bama 50. this one did not start well for Bama. Florida State jumped out to, I believe, a 21-3, 21-6 lead, and then the randelay happened and the the switch flipped. Keelan Russell looked better. Davis: And the tide rolled. Jackson: The tie did roll. defense looked rough. I mean, we talked about it on the on the preview show last week that If you could make Ashton Daniels have to make throws, I think Bama would just boat race him. And that's what they did. They they Davis: Yeah. Jackson: blitzed him. They sent they sent a lot of pressure packages at him and he just stood in there and and made the throws, which was surprising to me. I'll kinda eat my words, about everything I said about him last week. he had a good game. I know they didn't get the win, but he he fit the ball into some windows that, you know, I didn't know he had it in just based off what I've seen from him in in previous years. So good on him. Bama's gotta clean up the defense. Offense look good. Keelan Russell, I think he's adjusting. He's getting there, still showing some of that freshman mentality, I guess you could say. I feel like a lot of these throws, like he's he's bailing on the pocket too early and taken off. I mean he had the seventy yard run or sixty yard run, whatever it was, but I think I think he needs to trust his L line a little bit more. I mean they're doing a good job protecting, so I think moving forward he'll grow, but just a little nitpick for me, I think I think he can work on Davis: Yeah. I know you kinda hinted at it earlier, but Alabama scored twenty unanswered in the final two thirty six of the first half. So it went from twenty one to six to twenty six twenty one. So just like that. Crazy. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, it happened fast. I was in a wedding and I feel like by the time we I put my phone down and picked it back up we're we're winning again, so it was a nice little surprise. Kentucky thirty one, A and twenty one. I know we got the panic meter later. We mentioned in the last pod that no one heard that Texas AM kinda got whipped along the lines of scrimmage. This game is was also closer than the scoreboard reads. I mean A and outscored him in the fourth quarter fourteen to three. So they got a big game. Davis: Wasn't as close. Jackson: Right. Yeah, was was not as close as as the score looks. So There's reason to be concerned if you're an A and fan, for sure. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: All right, some other notable games around the league. we touched on Van De NC State. Clemson also had a had a rain delay thing against North Carolina. They were losing and then all of a sudden rain delay and they come back and it's a different team. So Oklahoma Davis: Yeah, North Carolina took a fourteen lead early, looked dominant. Clemson l couldn't move the ball at all and then just like that. There's a lot of games like that this week that you like i if you couldn't see who was wearing what jersey, you would have thought it was two different games with the way that some of these teams played in like the first half and the second half or in in some instances is is maybe just the first quarter, but that's how college football is. I did want to quickly go over Miami Wake Forest. Miami went up big in the first half. Malachi Tony got banged up. Didn't really play much in the second half and that offense completely changed. they are not the same without him. USC gives up thirty-five to Rutgers, one of the worst power four teams in the Big Twelve. So I know some people are are wondering how good USC is, and I think we'll hear Jackson's take on USC in a in a future segment. Jackson: Yep. Yep. Another thing, two other things. going in the SEC, Missouri only beats Troy twenty seven to seventeen. And then Oklahoma beats New Mexico by eight, fourteen six. that Oklahoma offense is struggled. Davis: Ooh. Did you see what John Matir did you see the the interview he gave? so their one of their touchdowns was on like a a deep pass, from Matir to Satanga. Jackson: yeah, yeah. I did see the touchdown, yeah. Davis: Yeah, and I can't remember the question that he asked, and he essentially was like, Yeah, I looked at him at first and then I and then he didn't look open, and then I moved to my other progressions, and then I got to like my third progression and I I heard the crowd yell he's open or something. And so then I just threw it and we're like like everybody's like, what? Like this is this the Oklahoma offense? We're we're listening to to crowd noises now. Jackson: I mean I saw the the video of him going through his progression and the guy was open like immediately, I'm pretty sure. Like it wasn't Davis: Yeah. Jackson: I mean, he went h him, the guy threw the ball to progression, progression, progression, and then went back to him and he was still open, so he just threw it as far as he could. So I mean I would be concerned. Davis: Yeah, that offense has struggled. Jackson: Yeah, i i it's definitely struggling. I mean, putting up fourteen points against New Mexico at home, which is supposed to be like you know, you come off a game against Michigan where You play good defense, you play it on the road. This game's supposed to be a game that you're testing new things out, trying to get everything reacclimated, running the ball, easy reads, easy throws for a quarterback, getting a rhythm back, but to score fourteen points at home against New Mexico is it's rough. Now you gotta go to Athens and and hopefully you can score more than that, or it's gonna be ugly fast. So Davis: We didn't put one of the notable upsets on here. West Virginia over Virginia. Shout out Matthew for hitting the upset check. That was big. The the reason that I thought about that was because former Oklahoma quarterback Michael Hawkins led that West Virginia upset. so obviously excelling outside of that our buckle system that John Mateer is now struggling in. Jackson: All right, moving on. Davis: Argus Milleton. Jackson: Alright, starting off with with upset check. A little little early this week, but we'll go ahead and get it out of the way. Davis, what do you like? What do you like this week? Who's who's getting upset? Davis: Yeah, so I'll explain the game for first-time listeners. It's also something that we played every week. So here we have the games that involve power four teams, they also have to be plus two fifty or more on the money line, and essentially we choose which teams that we think can pull off the upset. So if The team that is plus 250 or more does get an outright win, then me or Jackson or whoever chose them gets however many points the money line is, that's how many points you get. If the upset doesn't hit outright, then you get ten points for each point that they cover by. So Jackson, you covered by what eleven and a half points. So that's where the one hundred and fifteen comes from. And then I hit four hundred a plus four hundred money line in week one. And then Matthew, our guest on the show last week, hit West Virginia over Virginia, which I believe was what like plus three forty. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Okay. So for my pick this week I didn't like this slate. None of the games really stood out to me. I mean you have some big name schools that I don't think are getting upset, like Ohio State, like Georgia, like Notre Dame. So I will go with Georgia Southern. over Houston. Jackson: Okay. Davis: my uncle went to Georgia Southern so that's that's why I picked him. Yeah, Jackson: Making the college game day strategy. I like it. I like it. Davis: yeah. Jackson: Alright, I'm gonna go BC over Virginia Tech. there's nothing about Boston College that I like. I just think Virginia Tech's still trying to figure out a lot of things. You know, complete new roster with James Franklin coming over. You're going on the road, I mean two power four schools. I'll I'll take a flyer on Boston College, see if they can get it done. Davis: Yeah. I do like Georgia Southern to cover against Houston though. So that was kinda where my head went. Jackson: All right. Our first featured game of the week. Number one Texas going on the road to Knoxville to play number fourteen Tennessee. Spread is five, five five and a half. Five and a half. Yep. Davis: Five and a half, yeah. Jackson: Thoughts thoughts on this one? Davis: Yeah, this is an interesting one. This is actually Texas's first time traveling to Knoxville. we have the battle of the UTs. I know that both these teams begged the SEC to let them be, you know, you know, the ticker that you have. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: Or whatever. Both both the teams wanted to be UT. I think Tennessee was U T before and then when Texas joined the SEC they made it made it I think Tex and and ten. So I think I think the winner of this should just should just get U T. Jackson: Yeah, yeah. It's that's a good point. so one interesting data I found is Tennessee has not beaten a number one team since nineteen eighty five. They're and fourteen, I think. Davis: Alabama wasn't number one. Jackson: Not not when they beat us a few years ago, no. And they didn't beat us the whole Saban Dynasty years, other than that one game and Davis: yeah, the Hinden Hooker, Jalen Hyatt. Alabama what number one? Jackson: think it was Ohio State was number one at the time, but like we shouldn't Davis: Yeah. Jackson: have lost that game. But anyways, yeah, they they have not been a number one team since nineteen eighty five. So a lot at stake on the line for Tennessee this week. we don't know a lot about Tennessee. I feel like their one like test game was supposed to be Georgia Tech, but they kinda walked all over them and I think we've figured out or found out that Georgia Tech is maybe not who we thought they were. Going into the season. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Bayon Brainan has obviously never seen a defense like Texas. He's a true freshman. Texas is has arguably one of the best defenses in the country, if not the best defense. the talents there. So it's it's gonna be a whole new animal for Tennessee. Getting three Davis: Yeah. Jackson: two Cupcake games and then a Georgia Tech team that's not very good. you got Texas at home now. We'll find out a lot. We'll find out a lot about the identity of this team and and how good they really are. You know, a lot of people are sleeping on Tennessee, me included. I think if they if they can win this game then then you know it'll put them on the map, I guess you could say, in in the college football world. Davis: Yeah, we're still early early in the season, so these like yards per game stats and points per game stats don't mean a whole lot. I mean you have Tennessee who's played a lower level G four school and then a FCS school and then Kennesaw State. but they've really excelled running the ball. behind Deshaun Bishop Bishop. They haven't asked too much of Fezon Brandon, but he's looked good. moving on to Texas, like you said, the defense is one of the better ones in the country. But I don't think that that offense has really lived up to the billing and the hype and the talent level. especially not as you know it like With as much hype as Cam Coleman and Manning has had. you take a deeper look at the underlying metrics from Texas' offense, and it doesn't look like a team that's the number one overall team. one stat that I like to reference is EPA and EPA per play. Texas ranks 33rd in adjusted EPA per play, 20th in offensive success rate, and 54th in EPA per pass. So really towards the middle of college football so far. And I know one of those games came against Ohio State where it is more difficult, but those stats do try to adjust for opponent. And so while I'm kind of downplaying Texas's offense. I do want to hit on Tennessee's offense, who has been fourth in EPA per rush. So we're really gonna see kinda is Tennessee able to run the ball against Texas? That's the real question. Jackson: Yeah. And back to my point earlier. I think if they're not able to run the ball, I think if Texas can control Tennessee's ground game, then they're gonna have a hard time winning this game. you know, I mentioned Faison Brandon, it's his first time going against a real top five, top ten defense, and they're gonna have to establish a run game to see if they can open up some of those windows in the secondary. if they're asking Faison Brandon just to drop back and Essentially Texas is forcing him to throw the ball. I think I think it's gonna be a tough sled for Tennessee. So, that's my key to the game. I think Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Texas offense against Tennessee's defense will balance out. I I don't think the offense is gonna just light that defense up going on the road. You know, Arch Texas has had its problems going on the road. you have Kentucky and Mississippi State last year. Did both of those games go into overtime? Or no? They were both close games. Davis: Yeah, I think so. Jackson: I mean it I can't remember if they both went into overtime, but I remember both of those games thinking Texas was gonna lose. So so they've struggled playing on the road in the SEC and Tennessee's not an easy place to play. Davis: definitely agree with you about the running. That's kind of the whole, you know, reason for how I'm about to make my pick. I did want to throw in another thing that I considered. So since twenty twenty one, which is when Hypel took over Tennessee. Their pace of play, so you know they've always been very hurry up. has ranked first in twenty twenty one, second, fourth, twenty first, eighth. You wanna take a guess at what it's at this year? Jackson: Fiftieth? Forty fifth. Davis: Fifty fifty fifty second. So Hypel is making an effort to slow the game down, not only for his freshman, but or freshman quarterback, but also they're just so good at running the ball. They're controlling the clock, and they're really reliant on that run game. So I think that that's the key to why I think that this stays within the five and a half. I like Tennessee plus five and a half here. Gimme Texas to win outright, but I think it'll be close. I think they're gonna slow the game down, be able to run the ball. Make it a one spoke possession. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, I think w when you were going down that rabbit hole, I thought you were gonna you know, one thing I found, I guess, when I was prepping for this was Tennessee has not had a lot of success against Georgia in recent years. And I know Kirby Smart is the head coach of Georgia, I know he is a defensive mastermind, but Will Muschamp was also on the sideline of Georgia. So that's also something to keep in mind. Well, Must Champ is now the Texas defensive coordinator, so maybe maybe he'll be a big key in slowing down the Tennessee and hypo offense. But I'm with you. I like Tennessee to cover the five points. I think Texas's road struggles and playing in in Knoxville at Neal and Stadium in a game that's you know, I know there's not a script A on the other team's logo, but It's a big game against Texas, number one team in the country. College game day is coming. I know it's an eleven AM kick, but to me that favors the underdog, so I'll take I'll take Tennessee plus five and a half. Ole Miss at Florida at two thirty. This one's on ABC. Two teams coming off of big, big wins. a lot of people are saying it's it's a letdown spot for both teams, but two crazy offenses. I think we're gonna see a lot of points. What do you what do you got for this one, Davis? Davis: You start to look at the numbers and Florida is actually one of the most efficient offenses really in college football, which is I mean, they really didn't play anybody the first two weeks. I believe it was Florida International and Campbell. And you know what, maybe you can disregard what Auburn is, which is fine. but Auburn has typically had a good defense against DJ Durkin. but even if you go back to what Buster Faulkner was able to do at Georgia Tech, where they don't have, you know, plentiful talent there. I know Haynes King was was, you know, in the NFL now, but just with the way that Buster Faulkner schemes up that offense, I know I talked about it earlier, just really puts his players in the best position to succeed, and you're really seeing it on the field here. You move over to Ole Miss and like Jackson has said since the start of this podcast, it's led by the best quarterback in the nation. Trinidad Chamberless is playing out of his mind right now. running the ball, throwing the ball, off platform. It doesn't it doesn't matter. will be interesting to see how banged up Keewan Lacey is. I know he didn't finish that L S U game. Miss is kinda struggled to run the ball. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah they have. Davis: So I mean you just look at the rush yards per game there, one hundred fourteen. I mean that's that's crazy low. last year they they they ran Kewan Lacey to the ground, essentially. I don't I don't know if I'm gonna go as far as that's a concern. I think it's more so when Trinidad Chamberless is playing that well, probably don't need to run the ball. Jackson: Yeah. I mean it's it's definitely beneficial to have your R B one back there with you when you're going to the swamp and and playing on the road. I mean, not just running the ball but pass pro and just familiarity with with the guy that's standing next to you. You know being able to Davis: Mm-hmm. Jackson: trust the your running back to either pick up blocks or run the right play is is big. so on this Davis: So this game has the second highest. Or no. Sorry. I didn't scroll all the way down. This game has the no, I was right. The second highest overunder. So Vegas is expecting a shootout. I would too, two good offenses. Florida's secondary really struggled against Auburn. I don't keep Auburn's pass game in the highest regard, so I think Trinidad Chamberlain should have no problem there. The thing that scares me the most is this line. This is Florida is now a three point favorite. Jackson: It got up three and a half. I think it dropped back down, but it it it touched three and Davis: Yeah, and Jackson: a half there for a minute. Davis: this so I saw that and I the first thing I thought was this line feels like a trap and it feels like Vegas is daring me to take Ole Mess. And so I so I was I was curious to see where the money was laying. And according to DraftKings, 77% of the bets and 88% of the money. Is on Ole Miss Plus three. Whoo! Vegas doesn't usually Vegas doesn't doesn't usually lose money like that. They are setting a trap Jackson: Holding our ground. Davis: line. I don't know whether they're anticipating, you know, Ole Miss to no show after such an emotional game against LSU the week prior. But I don't know. I'm worried about this one. If if this line was like Ole Miss minus one and a half, I'd honestly feel better about it. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: but I'm I'm still gonna go Ole Miss. Gimme Ole Miss plus three and I'm sorry, I'm betting against Vegas here. Which doesn't Jackson: Yeah. Davis: usually end up well. Jackson: Yeah. I I think the key for Ole Miss, if Ole Miss is gonna win this game, I think they're gonna have to slow down Jaden Ball. I think i if you're Ole Miss, you you have to make Aaron Philo drop back and and beat you with his arm. and keep up with Trinidad Chambles. I Ole Miss is gonna score a lot of points. So if if they can stop the run, that will help them with time of possession. And I don't know if I trust Aaron Philo enough to be able to keep up with Ole Miss and Trinidad Chambless in that offense and and score as many points as them. On the flip side for Florida, I think you have to take the ball out of Trinidad Chambliss's hands as much as possible. Which means, you know, establishing a run game. you gotta slow down the clock, burn as much of it as you can, limit the possessions that that Chambliss and Ole Miss has, and just try to keep the ball as long as possible. So I think if it's a shootout, I think if it's thirty, forty points for each team, I I like Ole Miss. But Florida can run the ball and slow everything down, hold possession, I think Florida can win the game. But I'll take I'll take my the best quarterback in the country, I'll I'll roll with Ole Miss. I think they can get it done on the Davis: That's definitely what Florida's game plan's gonna be. I mean, they had a forty minute time of possession against Auburn last week. You know, they're gonna try to control the clock. But Jackson: I mean when you run the ball you can control the game. So Davis: Yeah. They're gonna try to limit the turnover or limit the amount of possessions. 'cause I think that they know that that in a shootout it's Jackson: You can't stop Davis: gonna it's gonna favor Trinidad Chambless in that offense. Jackson: You right, you you're not gonna stop him. You just gotta contain him. So and y you're doing that with your defense and your offense. That may sound silly, but your defense obviously you're scheming up whatever you can to slow slow him down and the offense is you gotta run the ball and kill the clock so you he doesn't have as many possessions to score. So running the ball for Florida is a big key in this game. I think that will be if they can't run the ball, I think Old Miss wins by seven plus. I like Wilmess by touchdown or more if Florida can't get it going. But if they can, I think this game's a little bit lower scoring. I wouldn't say it's like Michigan, Iowa low scoring, but I think it's a little lower scoring and I think Florida could that's that's their best chance to win. Davis: Yeah. right. From the Jackson: All right, Oregon USD. Davis: from the second highest overunder to the first highest over under. Jackson: Who do you think has more pressure to win this game? Oregon, I guess. I mean, is that is that an obvious answer? Yeah. Davis: it's I think it's Oregon. Yeah, I think it's Oregon. I mean you're already already coming off one loss. He hadn't looked great against Boise State. No one cares about the the game that Oregon played against Portland State. I'm excited for this one. You know it USC's defense has been has struggled a lot to say that as an understatement. I even compared it back against some of the last like four years, and I know it's only through three games, but I think that with it being only through three games and still being one of the worst defenses that they've had of the last five years is is pretty concerning considering they haven't played like this is the best team that they've played. Jaden Mobb has been great. he has almost 1200 passing yards, twelve touchdowns, one interception. The pass yards and the pass touchdowns lead the nation in in each of those categories. You look over to Dante Moore, that Oregon offense obviously hasn't lived up to what at least I thought and what most people thought, but I think that this could be a get right game for Oregon. Jackson: I think you're gonna see a pissed off Oregon team. like I said, I think there's pressure on I think they know they have to win this game. on the flip side, I think with US C I don't I don't the defense has been bad, but at the same time, how much of that is like garbage time stuff with backups and third strings? Like I know last week they allowed thirty five to Rutgers in a seven point game, so that's you know, probably all starters, but their other two games were against Fresno and Louisiana. Like I I don't know how like h amped up or hyped up th they are for for some of these games. So I think you're gonna find out a lot about USC in this game. they're gonna have to score early and and put the pressure on Oregon's offense because you know, we we know USC's gonna score. I don't know. I I like Oregon in this one. I I just think they're the more complete team. I think you may see some of the preseason expectations we had about Oregon come to light a little bit more in this game against USC. I just think the the Oklahoma State thing was a wake up call. You know, you come into the Oklahoma State game. Oklahoma State's coming off a loss to Tulsa by double digits. You think you you might just, you know, walk right through there and and stomp but they didn't. Oklahoma State put up a fight, they lost, so I think Oregon just that was their kind of reality check, and I think you'll see vintage slash preseason organ in this game and I think I think they'll get the job done. Davis: Yeah, I actually went back and forth on this one, as surprising as that may seem, being the I guess the Oregon guy. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I do think that Oregon's offense gets on track here. I think that this does live up to the high expectations from a from a over understandpoint. but I think that Oregon can edge out that two and a half. Jackson: Yeah, and I I d I know I just said that I think Oregon will kinda go back to what we expected preseason, but one thing that we all need to remember is that they lost both coordinators. Two coordinators that were like very, very good coordinators. I mean Tosh Lupoy is the head coach of Cal now. He's a great DC, he was at Alabama for a long time. relied on him. for that defense. And then you have Will Stein who's now Kentucky and just upset Tex AM on the road. So those are two coordinators that are are pretty significant losses for Oregon from last year to this year. So maybe there's a little bit of adjustment that's still going on in that program. having two new two faces on the on the coaching staff, but Personally I think they get the job done. I think they get back on track this week. however, if Oregon starts slow on offense, I think they could be in trouble. I think USC is gonna be able to score points on anybody. I don't think Oregon's defense is good enough to just shut them down. So they gotta get off to a good start, Davis: Yeah. Their defense isn't good enough. Or let me rephrase that. USC's offense is too good to try to come back from a large deficit from Jackson: Alright, so kind of the opposite of the Old Miss Florida game. Tex AM and LSU, two teams coming off of pretty tough losses. AM loses 21-31 at home against Kentucky, and then LSU obviously gets the loss at Old Miss. Spread here is eight and a half for LSU. Davis, what do you think on this one? Davis: Yeah, like you said, obviously coming off a tough loss to Kentucky if you're Texas AM and it was a loss that you looked terrible in. Marcel Reid was not not inconsistent, just consistently bad in that game. Had two or three interceptions. But I think the more glaring part of that loss was just how that O line and D line looked against Kentucky. If you're Texas AM, you know, you've got a top five budget in college football. You've put a lot of money into the into the trenches. And to come out like that against Kentucky, it was not not a great omen because LSU has one of the best defenses in the country. They lead the country in sacks. that defense, the defensive line specifically, is very disruptive. but that eight and a half line is is a lot higher than I would have thought. really just comes down to which Marcel Reid do we see. He didn't ta he hadn't taken the step this year that we would have thought. I mean he really he's regressed from last year. Which is unfortunate. Jackson: Yeah. That that was kind of a lot of the notes I had was was about Marcel Reed. I think from last year to this year you expect a quarterback like Marcel Reed, who's you know had a good season last year to kind of take the next step and evolve into that, you know, Heisman caliber maybe quarterback, but he's just not looked good. I don't know if that has something to do with the offensive line, the inability to run the ball super well, but th they don't look good. on the flip side, LSU It's an emotional loss to Ole Miss. I know there's that question kinda like we had with Ole Miss is like is this gonna be a a lot down spot or the guys gonna get up for this game? you lose trade as green. I think that's a big red zone target that's that you won't have available for this game. Davis: Mm-hmm. Jackson: could maybe see a little bit more field goals than you're than you're used to seeing from Lane Kiffin with with no trade as but I like L Show to win. I guess I don't like them to cover this one I I'm not too confident on. I think for A and to win this game, they're gonna have to get super creative with Marcel Reed. I think they're gonna have to run him. I think they're gonna have to have some gimmick trick plays that, you know, LSU's never seen before. They're gonna have to run something that that that is not on tape. Because if th if they're just running their stuff, I guess if you will, this game's gonna get ugly quick. But I think he is athletic enough and talented enough Like you mentioned, they have the guys on the roster. I mean they spent money in the portal, so I think they'll get creative with play calling this game and I think they could keep it within eight and a half. So I like A A and to cover this one. Davis: Yeah. I know I already talked about how elite LSU's defense is. I don't think that they get the credit that I guess they deserve because you know, Lane Kiffin's whole thing is being an offensive guy. they have, the stars on the offensive side of the ball, but it's really been that defense that's that's kind of carried them. So I do think it's gonna be a low scoring game, which you can see in that over under a fifty one. Low scoring game, eight and a half is so many points. I think LSU wins this game, wins by touchdown, maybe less, but I d I don't think they cover nine total. Jackson: Yeah. I th it's just too many points for I mean Sam Levitt hasn't looked great either. And and the the trade as green thing, I mean, th that offense did not look the same when he went down last week. So interesting stat about the quarterbacks. Both of these quarterbacks rank in the bottom four in the power four conferences on completed throws that travel ten or more air yards. So Davis: John Matear's gotta be in that stat too. Jackson: Lot of short passes. Yeah, I'm sure John Mateer's in there somewhere. He he did not come up on my on my search because I wasn't looking for him. But yeah, I believe John Mateer's probably right around there too. But yeah. These these guys aren't pushing the ball downfield, and especially with with Sam Levitt, you lose a six seven target like Tradez Green. that's it when you see that guy one on one, that's an immediate go ball throwing up in the air so he can go get it. I think it could start slower. Davis: How many out or how many weeks is he out for? Jackson: I don't know. I think about three to four. Maybe five, I don't know. I I heard he could be back maybe November, late October. So they're gonna have to find a way to do without him, but I mean, Levin hadn't looked great. Reed hasn't looked great, so with a spread like eight Davis: Yeah. Jackson: and a half, I'll take the whatever the plus points is. I mean, I don't I think this game's Davis: Mm. Yeah. Jackson: gonna be a little bit closer than that, so Davis: Yeah. Agree. Jackson: Alright, Missouri and Mississippi State, two teams that are off to hot starts. we mentioned Camario Taylor, the stud for Mississippi State quarterback. He's gonna have a a big part in this one. what's your what's your breakdown on this game, Davis? Davis: I've picked against Mississippi State the last two weeks. It's kinda burned me. I went back and forth on this one too. Five and a half is a lot. I mean, this line was probably five and a half the other way if it was set before the season. And so, I mean, these teams I mean, Missouri's kind of been what we thought they were. I know they've been without Ahmad Hardy, but I mean, they haven't surprised me. And then you look at Mississippi State, obviously one of the bigger bigger surprises in college football, and it's really just been on the back of Kamario Taylor. so I see why that line is the way it is. I'm actually kinda going back and forth in my head right now. I know I I know I told the graphics guy which way I wanted, but why why don't you make the case here and I think I might be I think I might be flipping. Jackson: Alright, so you have two defenses that are not great. You know, we know about Mississippi State's offense. Missouri's offense has looked well against lesser opponents, but but they've looked good. Mississippi State's defense ranked fifty-sixth in the country. The strong suit of their defense is the run defense. They ranked thirty-eighth versus the run. Missouri w ranks tw Davis: Is this just like rush yards per game? Jackson: Yes. Missouri ranks twelfth in pass offense and Mississippi State ranks seventy-sixth in pass defense. Missouri's gonna have to lean a lot on Austin Simmons in this game. So to me, my pick in this game kind of comes down to do I trust Austin Simmons to go on the road and and put up points and c and cover a five and a half spread. Just for what it's worth, I think Mississippi State's gonna win this game. But I think Missouri can keep it within a touchdown. I mean, Mississippi State's offense has been insane. They ranked second in yards per game and tenth in scoring. But I but I like Austin Simmons. I know we talk about him a lot. they had the big road win against Kansas in a rivalry game. I know that may not look as well as it did at the time with Kansas losing to Arizona State last week, but don't feel real good about this, but I'm gonna take Missouri plus the five and a half. Davis: Yeah, and it's also worth calling out Mississippi State's running back, Fluff Bothwell. He's been having a great season. Mississippi State is sixth in the country in EPA per rush. One stat that is just buried in my mind, and I guess to ruin my original pick, I took Missouri plus five and a half. But Mississipp State is in the 90th percentile and explosive play rate on offense. which no surprise. Camario Taylor is a, you know, highlight waiting to happen, either with his legs or with his arms. Mississippi State's defense Is in the thirty seventh percentile in terms of giving up explosive plays. So I mean it's really strength on weakness when it comes to Mississippi State's explosive play offense versus Missouri's ability to stop explosive plays. And I can't get that out of my head. And I've picked against Mississippi State twice in a row now. I I think I'm gonna flip here. I'm gonna take Mississippi minus five and a half and disregard that Missouri pick. Jackson: Yeah, I mean I think it's Davis: I'm gonna be kicking myself when this is when this is Missouri. Jackson: I I think it's a good pick. I I know with a with a higher total, two teams that are expected to score a lot of points, you can kind of get away with covering a larger spread. I don't know. I I wouldn't I'm not sold on this pick. I I kinda went back and forth. I was I was close to picking state, but another thing that kind of led me away from Missouri, but ended up going with them anyways, but Missouri is three and fifteen against ranked opponents. on the road in the past decade. So not good numbers to support my my case for Missouri, but I like Austin Simmons. I think they can score enough to keep up with them and and cover five and a half. So I'll I'll roll with Missouri in this one. Ooh, this one's gonna be ugly. Iowa against Michigan. the total is thirty eight and a half. The spread is Michigan. Five and Davis: Which is the which is the lowest of the week. Jackson: Is it? Yeah, I believe it. I believe it. Davis: So we covered the top two over unders, and then this is the bottom. and the next highest, can you guess who it is? Jackson: Heißt Davis: Or next the the next lowest one higher than Iowa, Michigan. Yep. Jackson: Oklahoma, Georgia? Davis: So this has got a thirty-seven and a half. Oklahoma, Georgia has forty-three and a half. So a six point difference from bottom to second to last, which is just goes to show how low this game is expected to be. Jackson: Yeah, two two elite defenses, obviously. Davis: Mm-hmm. Jackson: Michigan, I don't know what the heck to think about Michigan. They beat Oklahoma. How good is Oklahoma? We don't really know. they lost to Western Michigan, but I know they're three and so you know, whatever that was. They beat UTEP fifty two to seventeen, but you know, that's a game where they were winning by I can't I don't know how much it was, but they weren't winning by very much at halftime. I think it was a one possession game or or close to it, so Davis: Think it might have been tied at half. Jackson: I just don't know what to think about Michigan. I was Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Iowa, however, has played two bad teams and then they beat Iowa State, who I think is one of the worst teams in Power Four sixteen thirteen. So it's Davis: Yeah. Jackson: like I don't know. I think Michigan's gonna have to get creative with Bryce Underwood in this game, kinda like they did against Oklahoma. They're gonna have to Yeah, I agree. Davis: And I think that they have, which which I've been I've been glad to see. So last year, I know different coaching staff, but Bryce Underwood had eighty-eight carries. that includes sacks because college football includes quarterback sacks' runs, but eighty-eight total carries. This year, through three games, he's had thirty-three. So expected to blow that number out of the water. He had nine against Western Michigan. and then the coaching staff made a concerted effort to run him more. He had eighteen against Oklahoma. And then he had six against UTEP. I think most of that came in the first half. And then at the second half they probably didn't need to run him much. But I I think that that's really the only way that that Michigan's able to get offense is to quarterback run. He he he hadn't been able to throw the ball. Jackson: There it he's not. Yeah. Davis: They haven't been able to run the ball with their running backs. It's really been explosive plays from from Bryce Underwood running the ball, which they're gonna have to do again today. Jackson: He's just not he's not good enough to just sit back there and and put the ball where it needs to be. I mean, he hasn't shown it yet, so th they just have to be creative with with their play calling. I mean, that's that's the only solution to that. Iowa they have a great defense, so it's gonna be s I think similar to the Oklahoma game, where I think turnovers are gonna matter a ton and field position. Special teams field position. Turnovers. I think it's gonna be one of those low-scoring, kind of weird games, vintage Big Ten Davis: Yeah. Jackson: games, if you will. I like Michigan to cover just because they're at home and they have more talent on their roster. But other than that, I don't really have a good reason for picking Michigan. I just think these teams are really similar, two terrible offenses, but I'll take the team with the talent and the home field to to get it done. Davis: All right. we know this total, lowest total of the week, which makes the spread of Michigan five and a half seem you know even more. I know I didn't say that in the most technical or eloquent way, but I did want to go through some defensive stats. Points per game allowed. Michigan thirteen Iowa 4.33. Defensive success rate. So how often a a the opposing team is gaining like these threshold plays, like first down, it's like four yards. Third and one, it's a first down. It's just a stat that shows how often you're able to stop the offense from succeeding. Michigan, 84th percentile. Iowa, hundredth percentile. EPA per play, Michigan's number six in the country. or imp EPA per play allowed, number six in the country, Iowa, number one in the country. So this total with as low as it is, five and a half is too much. Gimme, give me Iowa plus five and a half. Jackson: Lot of confidence in the team that has not played anyone with a pulse, but all right, we'll move on. So to review, I'll I'll run through these real quick. Davis: So I will say I did go one and five last week, so I came into this week with a new strategy. Whatever game I was gonna pick, I ended up flipping. So I'm expecting some better results. Ended up double flipping on Mississippi State, so not sure if that double coun cancels or or what, but hoping for some better luck luck this week. Jackson: Alright, so to review, I'll run through these real quick. Davis action, I think your new strategy is just pick whatever I pick. That's the board's looking pretty similar. We're both on Tennessee plus five and a Davis: No, I submitted mine first. Jackson: half plus Texas. We're both on All Miss plus two and a half against Florida. We're both on Oregon minus two and a half. We're both on AM plus eight and a half. I'm on Missouri plus five and a half. You were taking Mississippi State, and Davis: Yeah. Jackson: then you were taking Iowa plus five and a half, and I'm on Michigan plus five and Davis: So we agree on the the first four and I saw the trend, so I had to split it up on that Missouri, Mississippi State pick there. Jackson: Alright, moving on, plays of the week. You first or me first? Davis: I think it's you first and I I think it's yeah, go ahead. Jackson: Alright, my first play of the week is Illinois plus twenty-eight. I think Ohio State is is good, but I don't think they're that good. I think Illinois is a team in the Big Ten. That's solid. they've put up decent points. I I just think twenty eight's too big, so I'll take Illinois plus twenty eight. Davis: I like it. All right, for my first one, I'll take Missouri State plus thirty-four and a half against SMU. so funny enough, these two teams played last year and SMU only won by eighteen. So, if it's anything like last year, then that will do well. Missouri State's offense has actually been pretty impressive and SMU has definitely struggled stopping the pass, which ranks a hundred and seventh in pass yards per play. So I think SMU can win big, but given all the turnovers and mistakes that SMU has had throughout this season, I think that that thirty four and a half is is just too much. Jackson: For next play, I'll go Colorado plus ten against Baylor. I know Colorado got killed last week against Northwestern, but sounds like Dion has made some changes. I hear that Davis: No. Jackson: there's some guys that are not with the team anymore, but Baylor covering ten against the power forward school just I don't think is gonna happen. I think Colorado's offense is good enough and can put up enough points and Baylor has not shown that they can you know, they lost to Auburn by one, but I I just don't think Baylor is Is legit. So I'll take Colorado with a double digit spread. Davis: That was the most backhanded compliment ever. Jackson: Sorry. Davis: All right. For my next play, I'll do Central Michigan plus 41 and a half against Miami. Central Michigan just ran for 339 yards against Wyoming. good running team. Think that they can control the clock, slow the game down, limit possessions. another thing that I think is to look out for is the availability of Malachi Tony. He went out in the second half of last week, kind of played sparingly, but for the most part was out of the second half and that offense completely changed. They won't need him in this game, but I I think that that does limit their explosive plays and does kind of cap their offense a little bit. So expect Miami to win big, but you know, If central Michigan can score, you know, ten points, I don't I don't think Miami can get to fifty. especially limiting Malachi Tony and Mark Fletcher, their running back, has been listed as questionable as well. Jackson: I like that one. All right, I'm gonna go Georgia Tech for my last one against Stanford. I think we've talked about it. Stanford is one of the worst teams in power four. And and I'm not completely down on Georgia Tech yet. I I think Mendoza is a good quarterback. I still think he's just trying to get his feet wet, get comfortable. And I think a game against Stanford is is the best way to do that. it's not a F C S school, it's not a group of six school, but it's it's pretty close to it. Sorry, Stanford, but I'll take Georgia Tech to cover three. Davis: Yeah. Expect Justice Haynes to have a big day. Reed Shepherd from Duke last week put up a lot of points. I had in our are in our game and we'll show that in a a couple slides or maybe the next slide. but like George Tech here, so am telling that pick as well. Alright, for my next one, I am going Texas Tech minus 34 and a half against Sam Houston State. So first two picks, liked the underdog. I like the favorite here. This number has actually dropped from 37 and a half to 34 and a half. So I like it more. I don't know if I guess I'm on an island there. If if everybody's betting Sam Houston. well Guess we'll see who's right. That seems to be the case with a Jackson: We'll see. Davis: lot of these games. Is I'm I'm going against the crowd. but Sam Houston is 0-2 against FBS opponents. Those two FBS opponents being Troy and Tulsa. In those two games, they've rushed for 93 combined yards. So I don't think I know that the typical play is when you're a huge underdog is you try to slow the game down, limit possessions, run the ball, make it to where, you know, the final score isn't a complete disaster. But I don't think that Sam Houston is able to run the ball at all. They weren't able to run the ball against Tulsa and Troy. I think that they're gonna be forced to pass, and I think that that can get ugly as well. I th I think that Texas Tech covers the thirty four and a half. Jackson: Alright, panic meter, we'll run through this real quickly. These are just a few of the teams that we decided to throw up on a board and just and talk about, you know, where we stand with these four teams are obviously kind of have been being talked about a lot right now. I guess with all these four, it's not meeting their preseason expectations. Davis, you got Oklahoma first. what are you what are you feeling about Oklahoma? Davis: Yep, so preseason expectations wise, they're picked six to win the SEC. They're AP preseason AP number ten team and had the tenth highest national championship odds. So if you're an Oklahoma fan, you're at least expecting to make the playoffs. The games recently haven't looked good. They only beat New Mexico by eight. and that offense has struggled mightily. Through three games, they are last in the SEC in yards per game, second to last in the SEC in pass yards, second to last in rush yards, and second to last in points per game. So I mean this offense is struggling to say the least. The offense is abysmal. they have the hardest remaining strengt strength of schedule according to FBI. They have Georgia this week and they open as a fourteen and a half point underdog. And then their game after that is Texas. I think they're in for a long season. I am going, it is time to panic. The only reason I'm not gonna say full meltdown is because their defense is playing at an elite level, giving up a an SEC best 7.7 points per game. But I don't see that offense turning around. It's time to panic. I think I saw that their new win total is six and a half. And it opened at eight and a half. And I think that it was juiced to the under. So a lot a lot of people don't think that they even get to get to seven. So pretty pretty rough if you're an Oklahoma fan. Jackson: All right, my first team is Tex A I am concerned about Tex A I was ki I'm kind of on the border between concerned and panic time. I think when you have a quarterback that's kind of showing that he's not what you thought he was gonna be, that's that's pretty concerning. Also, like we mentioned earlier with with the lines of scrimmage, you're not gonna have a lot of success winning in the SEC if you cannot block or, you know, get get a push on the defensive line or offensive line. So I think there's reason to be concerned if you're Tex A like both of my teams, Tex A and and US E. I think you'll find a lot out this weekend about the trajectory that their season's about to go in. So for now I I'm I'm in the concerned area, but panic time could be could be on the horizon if if things go south this weekend. Davis: I agree with that. Jackson: for US C I'm just kinda ke keeping an eye on it. I think their defense has been concerning. They've given up a lot of points to some lesser opponents, but I mentioned before, I think some of those have come in garbage time and I don't know how hyped up they're getting to play Fresno State in Louisiana. So You got Oregon this week. I mean, i if you give up fifty points to Oregon, that meter is going from keep an eye on it to to panic time. I think if you Lincoln Riley still cannot find a way to slow teams down on defense. It's just kind of, deja vu all over again for him and and and all his teams. They have great offenses, but if you can't get stops and and you can't slow down teams on defense, then your ceiling is kind of w you know, what it's always been for h for Lincoln Riley in the past. So right now I'm just keeping an eye on it, but that could change after Saturday. Davis: All right, for Texas Tech, obviously the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Twelve coming into the season, expected to make the playoffs. so they had a ten and a half win total. just to go over some stats from from this year, they're twelfth in the Big Twelve in points per game, thirteenth in in yards per game. I think that there's also a concern on the defense. They're giving up the most yards per game in the Big Twelve, giving up the most pass yards per game in the Big Twelve, and they're twelfth in points per game allowed. So I am putting them in the keep an eye on it tier. And so I know I just rattled off all these stats as to why Texas AM doesn't look as good as they should have. Why am I not as concerned? Why is the panic meter not higher? Well, they're undefeated. It already owns a conference win over Houston, which is the toughest team that they'll play in the Big 12. Their next two games, which one I've already covered, is Sam Houston. The next is Colorado. and they don't play BYU or Utah. So that that strength of schedule is the easiest in the league. Easiest in the country. So Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I think that they can struggle their way all the way to a Big Twelve championship game. Jackson: Yeah, I agree. I think I think they can get there pretty easily. It's unfortunate that some of these teams can just struggle their way all the way to a conference championship game and probably still get in the playoffs, but is what it is. Texas Tech may just have to to get exposed come playoff time, but we'll Davis: Yeah. Jackson: see. Davis: Yeah, it's crazy they avoid BYU and Utah. Jackson: Yeah, I don't know how that happened, but hats off to the big twelve, making sure they get one, maybe two teams in. So smart smart scheduling. Davis: All right, so you won the weekly draft last week, mainly off the back of Luke Reynolds with what is that, twenty eight points? What a what shout out Chat GPT. What a what a call. Jackson: My guy, I told you. I told you. Shout out Chad GPT and shout out Luke Reynolds. I will follow him on social media now. Thank you for wanting me this this week in fantasy. Luke, appreciate it. Davis: My my team kinda had a down week outside of Nate Shepherd. Huge game against Stanford. Other than that, not a whole lot of lot of points scored. So you are now two and one through three weeks, and the point differential is only eight point two. Jackson: Are we going off are we going off point differential or record for the winner? Davis: What do you want to do? Jackson: It's a record. Davis: All right. N now that you have a a a one game lead, let's do record. Jackson: Let's do record. That sounds better. Davis: Yeah. All right. So I think we decided on on the punishment. Other person wears Jackson: I guess. Davis: other person wears a jersey? Jackson: I'll wear something that has A U on it, but we'll see. Davis: Are we doing that before are we doing it before the Iron Bowl? The podcast before the Iron Bowl? Jackson: We'll see. It'll be some point. Davis: 'Cause if we do it then then we have to cut this a week early. Jackson: We can do it right after. Davis: Yeah. Alright, we'll do it at some point. Jackson: Alright, we'll get into the let's get into the picks for this week. All right, for my first pick, I'm gonna go tight end at a TCU carry Ashley. I would give you a reason for why I'm picking, but Chad GPT is going to save me again on the tight end. So I think I'll have a big week against UCF. I like Kerry Ashley. Davis: All right. I'll go the most dynamic player in college football, at least through three weeks outside of Trinidad Chambless. And I'll go Camario Taylor. Jackson: That was a good pick. Davis: Alright, I guess it's back to me. I will take The best player in college football. Jackson: Hold on, I need I'm gonna need to pick another receiver. What are the odds that I was gonna take the same guy? Davis: Felt like it was a good week to get get a Jeremiah Smith share. I looked at my I looked at my team and I was like, dude, all these people that I've chosen, like none of are like big names. And I was like, I'll put a bit I I I don't have to save up all these guys. Feel like Illinois's a pretty good matchup. Not gonna blow out. Jackson: Yeah. Alright, I'll take I'll take Trey Richardson. Receiver at a Louisville. I guess I should have picked someone that's not a receiver since you just picked a receiver, but well. Davis: Alright, you got it again? Jackson: All right, for my running back, I will go Dylan Jones at L S U. Davis: For my running back. Actually, I'm gonna go Mm-hmm. Wide receiver again. I will take the freshman phenom. he's n no he is. Trent Mosley. Gonna be a high scoring game. He's been my Ava's number one target. So expecting a big game from All right. For my running back, I will go to the playing against Stanford well again. Worked out for me last week. See if it works out for me this week. Jackson: Just the Saints. Davis: Yep. Thank you. Jackson: You're welcome. All right, for my last two picks, my quarterback, I'll go Dante Moore. And my Flex I'll go DeCorian Moore. Both Oregon guys, I think they'll have big weeks against US C defense. Davis: You're gonna have to you're gonna have to choose a different receiver. You only get one per team. Jackson: shoot. Two receivers that I chose are not eligible. Give me Charlie Becker. Davis: thought about him, but I thought that that game might be over at halftime. Jackson: Forgot about the no team thing. Davis: Yeah. All right. And for my last pick. I will not use ChatGPT for my tight end, but instead will use Jackson's tight end from last week that went off on me. Luke Reynolds, come on down. All right, here's the teams. in my lineup, Kamario Taylor against Missouri, Justice Haynes running back, Georgia Tech against Stanford, Jeremiah Smith against Illinois. The big Luke Reynolds against Boston College and Trent Mosley, freshman wide receiver for USC going up up against Oregon in my flex. Jackson: Alright, a quarterback I got Dante Moore, Oregon going against USC, running back Dylan Jones, LSU, playing Texas AM, wide receiver, Trey Richardson, Louisville going against Wake Forest, tight end Kerry Ashley out of TCU against UCF, and then my flex is Charlie Becker, Indiana. Davis: I like it. you got the one game lead on me and eight points total. So it's been it's been close. It's been very close. Jackson: Alright, ready for the game? Davis: I didn't even I didn't do it. Jackson: Dude, you're killing me on the game, Davis. You were on point the first Two weeks and now you're just falling off a cliff here. Davis: What's the what's the theme? Jackson: I don't do the themes. I I usually leave the themes to you, but I will go first if you want me to. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: T. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: At one point in my career, I was named NVP of the Liberty Bowl. Davis: I don't think this is doing anything for me. Jackson: players since we've been alive. So you got a one in twenty six chance right now. Davis: Yeah, if I had the twenty six Liberty Bowl MVPs off the top of my head, then yeah. Aaron Murray. I don't even know if he went to the Liberty Bowl. Jackson: Okay. I finished eighth in Heisman Trophy voting during my college breakout season. So like never really climbed the ladder and was of like a real Heisman guy that people thought could win. Davis: Eighth and Liberty Ball. Matt Corral. Jackson: Okay. Next hint. Wait, where'd it go? Okay. I became the first quarterback in my school's history to earn first team all SEC honors. First quarterback to earn first team all SEC honor. Davis: DAC. Jackson: Yep. Davis: Yes. Jackson: Good job. That was good. I thought you were I was gonna have to give you another one. Davis: Oh's the is the next two. Jackson: I don't know, I have like twenty on here. I just kinda pick and choose. No, my my next one is gonna be I help lead my college team to its first ever number one ranking. Davis: Okay. Yeah, I thought you were trying to trick me with the first SEC like thinking it might be like Oklahoma or Texas or one of those. Jackson: Yeah, that was kind of a open ended hint, so figure. Davis: Yeah. All right, hit number one. I scored four touchdowns in a college football playoff semifinal. Jackson: Zegal Elliott. Davis: Yeah, I feel like that was a little too easy. Jackson: Really? Really? Dang. I I mean I already had Dak on my mind. That that was pretty easy. Thanks, Davis. Davis: I know, I was trying to go a little harder and then I was gonna say like my fourth hint was gonna be I shared a backfield with Dak and collet or the NFL but yeah, I just Congratulations, I'll give it to Jackson: Hey, that was my that was my first that was my first one timer. I feel good about that. Davis: you. Jackson: Thank you, thank you, thank you. All right. Went a little long, but what but not too bad. if you made it this far, appreciate it. Like, subscribe, all the all the good stuff. Davis: Yeah, if you made it this far you're probably already subscribed and have liked every video. So maybe we should lead off with that. Yeah. Y'all are good friends. Jackson: Yeah, if you made it this far you're probably our friend, so for so th thanks for thanks for the support. All right. we'll be back next week. We'll we'll we'll hopefully get in a recap video that we can actually hit record on this time and so we'll have two. We'll have a recap and then and a preview, but anything else before we before we get out of here? Davis: No. Yep, see y'all. Jackson: All right, appreciate it. Thanks, Davis. Have a good one.