Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 4

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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 4 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network,
0:16
Speaker 1: live from our Tommy John Home studios. I am Chad Millman,
0:21
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. This is our
0:24
Speaker 1: Sunday Night episode in which we review the faves five
0:29
Speaker 1: picks that we put into the contest, dissect some of
0:33
Speaker 1: the games we might have left out. We're going to
0:35
Speaker 1: preview the early lines we already like for week five.
0:41
Speaker 1: My co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional
0:46
Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter is joining me at OLSIMN.
0:50
Speaker 2: Chad, how are you doing brother?
0:52
Speaker 1: We haven't been this happy since before the season started,
0:56
Speaker 1: and we're going to get to why. But I do
0:58
Speaker 1: like that right before we won on air, you said
1:02
Speaker 1: to me, oh, man, there are some juicy lines next week.
1:06
Speaker 1: So I'm excited to dig in on that because we
1:09
Speaker 1: targeted a couple of lines that ended up in our
1:12
Speaker 1: contest plays that we landed on perfectly. At last. Simon,
1:20
Speaker 1: we finally had a week. We finally had a week
1:24
Speaker 1: where I'm not walking up to the third floor to
1:27
Speaker 1: my Tommy John Home studio and I'm thinking, Oh, I
1:31
Speaker 1: cannot believe we have to talk about these games. Our
1:34
Speaker 1: boosted money line parlay at bet three sixty five was
1:37
Speaker 1: the Colt and the Bucks. It won actually one in
1:41
Speaker 1: the first half thanks to the Bet three sixty five
1:44
Speaker 1: no Sweat offer that pashes people's tickets as soon as
1:49
Speaker 1: your team goes up by seventeen. We won our Simon says,
1:52
Speaker 1: which was in d plus two. We won our exect
1:54
Speaker 1: decession decision, which was Bear's minus two and a half.
1:58
Speaker 1: We won our big balls better than we which was
2:00
Speaker 1: the Chargers plus seven and a half. We'll get to it.
2:03
Speaker 1: Started the day three and on the contest with the Bears, Colts, Bucks.
2:07
Speaker 1: Apparently it's not just teams that need the preseason Simon.
2:09
Speaker 1: We need it a little bit of it. Two. That's
2:12
Speaker 1: all I'm going to say about that. If you believe
2:14
Speaker 1: you can beat our picks this season, be our guest,
2:16
Speaker 1: let us pay you. Join the Favorites dot actionnetwork dot
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Speaker 1: Com contest. It's really the Favorites podcast contest, but join
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2:28
Speaker 1: live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget
2:31
Speaker 1: to give us a like. Subscribe to the Action Network
2:34
Speaker 1: YouTube page as a reminder of the Favorites podcast is
2:36
Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five and now new Bet
2:39
Speaker 1: three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus
2:43
Speaker 1: bets when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo
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Speaker 1: code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five
2:48
Speaker 1: dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those
2:51
Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
2:54
Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at Bet
2:58
Speaker 1: three six five. Must be or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
3:06
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
3:09
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
3:13
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned
3:15
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. It was a crazy, crazy day. Let's run
3:20
Speaker 1: through the game, Simon. At one point today, two of
3:23
Speaker 1: our teams, Indi and Tampa were up a combined thirty
3:28
Speaker 1: eight to nothing in the second quarter. And yet, and
3:34
Speaker 1: yet we still found ourselves sweating both of those games
3:39
Speaker 1: midway through the third quarter, and the Colts made us
3:44
Speaker 1: sweat until the final minute, So let's start there. Look,
3:48
Speaker 1: it was a huge luck game, a game you like
3:50
Speaker 1: from the beginning, a classic fade, Tomlin spot, a classic
3:53
Speaker 1: cell high on the Steelers for a half Simon, we
3:56
Speaker 1: were absolutely one hundred correct.
4:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it all came true with the only
4:02
Speaker 2: fear was their defense of the Colts, right. We talked
4:06
Speaker 2: before the game all the injuries and that that was
4:07
Speaker 2: a little scale, but we were just saying, gotta trust
4:10
Speaker 2: the number, got to play the number and play the
4:12
Speaker 2: situation in the spot and obviously felt pretty good. But
4:16
Speaker 2: I would say, if you're a Pittsburgh fan, even though
4:18
Speaker 2: it was the Colts defense, gotta be pretty excited about
4:21
Speaker 2: justin fields, right. He made a lot of plays that's like, okay,
4:24
Speaker 2: justin fields of the Bears would have thrown a pick here,
4:26
Speaker 2: he made a stupid fumble. He had a couple of
4:28
Speaker 2: big time plays in that game. So uh, Unfortunately what
4:32
Speaker 2: happened to Anthony Richardson will to see what's going on
4:34
Speaker 2: with him going forward, But not that big of a
4:37
Speaker 2: decreaseed chat when I look at my model when Joe
4:39
Speaker 2: Flacco comes in there. So I was upseted. I was
4:42
Speaker 2: when he went out, because it changes the whole dynamic
4:43
Speaker 2: of the game. Hey, at least it's at least it's
4:46
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco. That was my first thought. And it's like
4:49
Speaker 2: he won't burn us hopefully in this game. And they
4:51
Speaker 2: just played it simple and that's what they did, right,
4:53
Speaker 2: So you're right, like that comeback got a little tight
4:56
Speaker 2: there at the end, but yeah, in the end, all
4:58
Speaker 2: worked out.
4:59
Speaker 1: So so Joe Flacco came in, Anthony Richardson goes out,
5:06
Speaker 1: and I never was concerned. I mean, look, they were
5:10
Speaker 1: up seventeen to nothing when Anthony Richardson. No, they were
5:14
Speaker 1: up ten to nothing when Anthony Richardson went out. Joe
5:17
Speaker 1: Flacco comes in.
5:18
Speaker 2: There is a nice touchdown pass, so his first.
5:20
Speaker 1: Pass as a touchdown pass, they're up seventeen nothing. So
5:23
Speaker 1: I wasn't that concerned. I'm thinking, Okay, this is Jonathan Taylor.
5:27
Speaker 1: Time run the ball, run the ball, run the ball.
5:30
Speaker 1: And like you said, like look at the end, at
5:32
Speaker 1: the end of the first half, I want to look
5:34
Speaker 1: at the numbers here, Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco combined
5:40
Speaker 1: twelve of eighteen one hundred and fifty five yards two
5:44
Speaker 1: touchdowns against the Steelers d and the Steelers need to
5:47
Speaker 1: day Chris Boswell fifty yarder to get on the board
5:51
Speaker 1: at the end of the half. Even through like most
5:54
Speaker 1: of the third, the Colts were crushing it. Matt Game
6:00
Speaker 1: the field goal, and then all of a sudden, that
6:03
Speaker 1: Colts defense, I don't know if it's they're already not
6:06
Speaker 1: that good, and the injury started to pile up. Like
6:10
Speaker 1: when the game tempo changed a little bit. I think
6:13
Speaker 1: it played to the advantage of the Steelers because Justin
6:17
Speaker 1: Fields was all of a sudden using his legs and tire,
6:19
Speaker 1: and the Colts weekend a defensive line and secondary out,
6:23
Speaker 1: but all of a sudden, like Fields hits Pickens, then
6:27
Speaker 1: the Fields, then the Steelers score, and the next ninety
6:30
Speaker 1: minutes it's just a sweat. Colt score, Steelers score, coltscore,
6:34
Speaker 1: Steelers score. Justin Fields was a real QB. Every time
6:38
Speaker 1: you fucking turned on red zone the Steelers were in
6:43
Speaker 1: the red zone. He threw for three hundred and twelve
6:46
Speaker 1: yards and a touchdown, completed sixty four percent of his passes,
6:51
Speaker 1: ran for fifty five yards and two touchdowns. He never
6:54
Speaker 1: Justin Fields, which was so frustrating.
6:57
Speaker 2: Well he did that, dumb fumbled didn't.
7:00
Speaker 1: Well that was that's what I was gonna say, and
7:02
Speaker 1: we needed that right Finally, Yeah, he pulled to Justin
7:07
Speaker 1: fields on the final few plays, including a fumble. He
7:11
Speaker 1: has still never won a game. Great Evan Abrams stat
7:14
Speaker 1: when opponents score more than twenty points. How crazy is that?
7:22
Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's crazy, but it's also I mean,
7:25
Speaker 2: he was on the Bears. I can't hold too much
7:27
Speaker 2: against him. He went through the dark days of the Bears.
7:29
Speaker 2: So that's why I wanted to give the little flowers
7:31
Speaker 2: because I was like, we were up seventeen to three. I
7:35
Speaker 2: was like, man, this is over. They no way that
7:37
Speaker 2: they're coming back with Justin Fields, And like you just said,
7:40
Speaker 2: they hit a couple of big plays and they just
7:42
Speaker 2: wore out that Colts defense where end up being a sweat.
7:44
Speaker 2: But again, never really in doubt. Right, that was the
7:48
Speaker 2: nice thing about getting that number. It's like, yeah, it
7:50
Speaker 2: was like scared at the end there, but we were
7:52
Speaker 2: up the whole game. So that's that's always nice when
7:54
Speaker 2: you have a dog and you never really are down
7:56
Speaker 2: in a game.
7:57
Speaker 1: Well, look, we got the extra field goal we needed
7:59
Speaker 1: and that sort of hell and took a little bit
8:01
Speaker 1: of the pressure off. Or maybe we got the extra
8:03
Speaker 1: touchdown we needed that took a little bit of the
8:05
Speaker 1: pressure off. But definitely, when all of a sudden it
8:08
Speaker 1: was twenty seven to twenty four and Fields has the ball,
8:12
Speaker 1: I'm like, Oh Jesus Christ, I cannot believe we're going
8:15
Speaker 1: to lose this game, and we're going to lose the
8:17
Speaker 1: money line parlay because the Colts couldn't hold a lead.
8:20
Speaker 1: It does make me think about next week, and we're
8:24
Speaker 1: going to talk about the Steelers Cowboys line later in
8:28
Speaker 1: the show. I know it's something I was looking at.
8:29
Speaker 1: I don't know if you were thinking about it, but
8:32
Speaker 1: I do wonder what the market will feel about Justin
8:35
Speaker 1: Field's performance today. Okay, Philadelphia at Tampa Bay. The line
8:40
Speaker 1: was two and a half. Kudos to you. I take
8:45
Speaker 1: no credit for this. All flowers for Simon because it
8:48
Speaker 1: went exactly the way you said it would. Eagles bat
8:51
Speaker 1: on the road, his favorites incredibly injured, Wayne Johnson, DeVante Smith,
8:57
Speaker 1: AJ Brown, Hot Weather. They looked washed from second the
9:00
Speaker 1: game started. Even when they tried to make a run,
9:03
Speaker 1: it was short lived, well handicapped Simon Hunter.
9:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, those are the fun ones when it's like, you know,
9:11
Speaker 2: we talked last Sunday night and I basically told you
9:15
Speaker 2: this is gonna be one of our five. I know
9:17
Speaker 2: you were like, I don't want to I don't want
9:18
Speaker 2: it to be I can see it on your face,
9:20
Speaker 2: and I was like, I know this is painful to
9:22
Speaker 2: hear right now, but this is gonna be. So That
9:24
Speaker 2: and the Colts are just two matchups. You just I
9:26
Speaker 2: started betting Sunday night, betted throughout the week, and you know,
9:31
Speaker 2: this Tampa line went from two and a half down
9:33
Speaker 2: to uh plus one, and when the Colts line started
9:37
Speaker 2: going the other way, I was like, oh man, I
9:39
Speaker 2: wanted where professionals are coming on the other side. And
9:41
Speaker 2: you know that's that never really happened here in this
9:44
Speaker 2: Tampa game. It was just all public loving this Eagles
9:47
Speaker 2: squad after you know, Tampa kind of lay that the
9:50
Speaker 2: week before, which I said, totally understandable. I got why
9:54
Speaker 2: the public proceeded that way. But we talked beforehand, all
9:57
Speaker 2: the injuries to the Eagles, it was gonna to be
10:00
Speaker 2: too much for them to overcome. When you're putting all
10:01
Speaker 2: that on too hurts his plate and he's not playing
10:04
Speaker 2: consistent right, He's turning the bowl over too much. It's
10:07
Speaker 2: kinda rear. Its ugly that eventually, and you know, we
10:09
Speaker 2: just got really lucky that. You know, the bucks just
10:12
Speaker 2: came out fire like that's those are the days when
10:14
Speaker 2: you bet on Baker. He's got it today, like some
10:17
Speaker 2: days he does not have it, like last week he
10:19
Speaker 2: did not have it. This week, Baker was in his
10:22
Speaker 2: bag the whole game. So that's that's a fun one
10:25
Speaker 2: to bet because it was never really a worry and
10:27
Speaker 2: then all of a sudden it was like a blocked
10:30
Speaker 2: extra point, the Eagles only down two touchdowns. It's like, okay,
10:34
Speaker 2: this is actually going to be a sweat, and of
10:37
Speaker 2: course it was not. Tampa just absolutely rolled that one.
10:39
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's to start with those two in the
10:42
Speaker 2: one o'clock window. That's that's really nice to the boost
10:44
Speaker 2: of the ego.
10:45
Speaker 1: Baker was in the kitchen mixing up something sweet for desserts.
10:54
Speaker 1: What do you think of that?
10:56
Speaker 2: There's so many ways you could have gone. That was
10:58
Speaker 2: probably one of the lamest ways.
11:04
Speaker 1: I think the bigger You're right about Baker. Look, he
11:07
Speaker 1: was amazing just on the windows.
11:10
Speaker 2: I mean it was crazy some of his throats because
11:12
Speaker 2: I watched it all that at.
11:13
Speaker 1: One point he was thirteen to fifteen for one two touchdowns,
11:16
Speaker 1: and then he had an RPO in which he kept
11:19
Speaker 1: the ball and scored a touchdown.
11:21
Speaker 2: Like, yeah, laid the shoulder down on the safety.
11:23
Speaker 1: He could do no wrong. And I think we love
11:28
Speaker 1: Baker and we've always loved Baker, and we love Baker
11:30
Speaker 1: when he was on the Browns, and he has such
11:31
Speaker 1: moxie and he got that team with the playoffs, and
11:34
Speaker 1: he did it again last year with the box and
11:36
Speaker 1: we we were planning on fading the bus. We did
11:39
Speaker 1: not think he could rekindle this magic. They've had a
11:42
Speaker 1: little bit of like getting the right teams at the
11:46
Speaker 1: right time, you know. They they got the Eagles exactly
11:51
Speaker 1: at the right time to get the Eagles.
11:54
Speaker 2: I'm not discounting those lines like it's just a great,
11:57
Speaker 2: great wins to the resume with those could be tiebreakers
11:59
Speaker 2: come playoff time. So yes, yeah, like you're saying the
12:02
Speaker 2: hats off to them and everything their coaching staff's doing
12:04
Speaker 2: right now.
12:05
Speaker 1: Right because I was going to say, like just because
12:06
Speaker 1: they're getting teams at the right time, they're also getting teams.
12:09
Speaker 1: When they're coaching these teams, they're the Bucks up really well.
12:12
Speaker 1: Like Todd Bowles. We were not Todd Bowles fans, and
12:15
Speaker 1: he's been incredibly impressive. There are two questions we have
12:18
Speaker 1: to ask ourselves going forward. Who are the Eagles right now?
12:23
Speaker 1: They're heading into the by It's going to be an
12:26
Speaker 1: excruciating couple of weeks for Philly fans. It's going to
12:31
Speaker 1: be a great couple of weeks for WIP and Philly
12:35
Speaker 1: Sports Radio. Just you should just start writing down the
12:38
Speaker 1: best lines. I don't know who we know if we
12:41
Speaker 1: know who the Bucks are yet, and that's going to
12:43
Speaker 1: be an interesting one to talk about for next week
12:46
Speaker 1: as well. I've already marked that one on my list.
12:49
Speaker 1: Who are these Buccaneers and what do we believe about them,
12:53
Speaker 1: how they've been coached, how they've played. I think we
12:56
Speaker 1: know exactly who the Chicago Bears are. We had them.
12:59
Speaker 1: They were exec decision two and a half. By the way,
13:02
Speaker 1: Indy was the Simon says, I mean, these were two
13:06
Speaker 1: terrible teams, like it was a comedy of errors. At
13:10
Speaker 1: one point on the bare second drive, they had back
13:13
Speaker 1: to back offensive penalties and a first and twenty five
13:18
Speaker 1: and Caleb Williams actually had the if. Jerry West is
13:24
Speaker 1: the logo for the NBA. The logo for NFL Bloopers
13:29
Speaker 1: is a quarterback who goes to pass, fires his armback
13:34
Speaker 1: and the ball slips out of his hand before he
13:37
Speaker 1: has any forward motion. Kayleb Williams had one of those today,
13:40
Speaker 1: Like they won and we're going to get to how
13:42
Speaker 1: they won. But I know you put this on your
13:45
Speaker 1: main TV and your friends were not happy about it.
13:49
Speaker 2: No, I'm watching with a bunch of professional betters and
13:51
Speaker 2: these are you know, they got big money on some
13:53
Speaker 2: of these games, and they were just like, this is
13:56
Speaker 2: this This game is garbage? Why are we watching this game?
13:58
Speaker 2: And I think the general view of Caleb Williams is
14:02
Speaker 2: what you're feeling right now, which is like these moments
14:05
Speaker 2: of greatness and then these other moments of you keep
14:09
Speaker 2: this up, you're gonna be at the league in five years.
14:11
Speaker 2: Like it's it's really a roller coaster. And I mean again,
14:17
Speaker 2: I think it was six nothing to start the game,
14:18
Speaker 2: whatever it was, and I'm just seeing myself this might
14:22
Speaker 2: already be too big of a whole, Like now we're
14:23
Speaker 2: gonna to have Kayleb William's passing the rest of this game,
14:26
Speaker 2: which is the last place I wanted to be. But
14:29
Speaker 2: your team's just like we're gonna talk about it, man,
14:31
Speaker 2: They're just I like, they can pull teams down the
14:33
Speaker 2: mud and make the game ugly and they can win
14:35
Speaker 2: in different ways. And that's what's been you know, fun
14:38
Speaker 2: and exciting about this team. Like, you know, they haven't
14:41
Speaker 2: had the easiest schedule to start the year with a
14:43
Speaker 2: rookie here, and you guys have been in just about
14:47
Speaker 2: every game, so I think the bar is set so high.
14:51
Speaker 2: I mean, we haven't got into it yet, but like
14:54
Speaker 2: you know, the kid in Washington's it's unfair. Right one
14:58
Speaker 2: looks complete, in control, confident, calm, and Williams looks like
15:03
Speaker 2: what most rookies should look like, which is the bullets
15:06
Speaker 2: are flying. You've taken some really hard hits on your chin,
15:09
Speaker 2: so you got a little bit of noise in the back
15:11
Speaker 2: of your head being like telling you what to do,
15:13
Speaker 2: But overall, you had a great reading this game, Like
15:17
Speaker 2: you read the number right, We said the Rams would
15:19
Speaker 2: have a letdown after that huge win last week, and
15:23
Speaker 2: you kind of saw that, right. They just they didn't
15:25
Speaker 2: look like they had it this that whole game where
15:28
Speaker 2: against the forty nine ers they were able to move
15:30
Speaker 2: the ball. Against the Bears, they had these little moments
15:32
Speaker 2: and then overall things just kept stalling. It's just their
15:35
Speaker 2: offense then looking sync today. So yeah, we betted up
15:38
Speaker 2: minus one on Sunday night. You talked about it all week.
15:41
Speaker 2: I think I bet it again at minus two and
15:43
Speaker 2: a half. It got up to three, put a little
15:46
Speaker 2: more on it this morning after we talked about it
15:48
Speaker 2: again and it was just like man, once the game started,
15:51
Speaker 2: its like, holy shit, I got a lot riding on
15:53
Speaker 2: this game. It's it's Kayleb Williams. But yeah, that that
15:56
Speaker 2: was a really fun game to watch in a good
15:58
Speaker 2: bet to win.
15:59
Speaker 1: Well, look, we're gonna talk about this with Jaden Daniels too.
16:01
Speaker 1: But what's interesting about Kayleb Williams that is infuriating is
16:08
Speaker 1: he he just stands still in the pocket for some
16:13
Speaker 1: times up to a second a second and a half,
16:15
Speaker 1: which obviously doesn't seem like that long. But if you're
16:19
Speaker 1: a statue in the pocket and not making it difficult
16:23
Speaker 1: for the defensive linemen who were coming at you against
16:26
Speaker 1: a weak offensive line, it's like he gets he just
16:29
Speaker 1: gets swallowed up and like it's so infuriating. It happened
16:36
Speaker 1: three or four times where he just did not freaking
16:40
Speaker 1: move and they got him. The Bears had seven penalties
16:45
Speaker 1: in the first twenty minutes of gameplay. Like it was
16:49
Speaker 1: horrendous football.
16:50
Speaker 2: It was bad football.
16:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, But first to your point, I never felt like
16:54
Speaker 1: they were out of it. You said six to zero
16:55
Speaker 1: was too big of a hole. Now that I've watched,
16:58
Speaker 1: no joke, every play of this team's season so far.
17:06
Speaker 1: Their defense has playmakers, and their defense was terrible today,
17:09
Speaker 1: Like Matthew Stafford and Kyran Williams were ripping them apart
17:14
Speaker 1: in the middle of the field. They could not stop them.
17:16
Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden in the second half,
17:19
Speaker 1: they kind of they started to play big boy football.
17:22
Speaker 1: They had a great twelve play drive for a touchdown,
17:27
Speaker 1: and they gave up a touchdown on the next drive.
17:31
Speaker 2: Now, it was the opening drive that was scared. The
17:33
Speaker 2: opening drive that second half was a Rams drove down
17:35
Speaker 2: the field, Williams going to ripped the middle touchdown. Yeah,
17:38
Speaker 2: and again we might have a problem here. They really
17:42
Speaker 2: ran through your guys. Team, Like you said, they made
17:44
Speaker 2: adjustments and they took away their run, which is what
17:47
Speaker 2: they needed to do in that second half.
17:48
Speaker 1: It was really impressive. And then they gave up a
17:51
Speaker 1: touchdown to the Rams. The lead was two, and then
17:56
Speaker 1: they had another touchdown drive. This time it was an
17:58
Speaker 1: almost entirely on the ground with DeAndre Swift forward. What's that?
18:06
Speaker 2: I said? You're right? Swift had a good game.
18:08
Speaker 1: He finally ran forward instead of like dancing. I remember
18:11
Speaker 1: what we talked about on Thursday, Like he is the
18:14
Speaker 1: most exciting three ront yard runs ever. Ran forward thirty
18:17
Speaker 1: six yard touchdown run. And then they had a four
18:20
Speaker 1: minute drive that basically ended the game. Like the Rams
18:23
Speaker 1: had no time, terribly terrible field position. Matthew Stafford threw
18:27
Speaker 1: a pick from deep in his own territory. Like they
18:30
Speaker 1: played like a real freaking football team.
18:33
Speaker 2: And that's what I like. As much as I want
18:34
Speaker 2: to hate on Williams, what are you sitting here at chatty?
18:37
Speaker 2: What are you doing?
18:37
Speaker 1: Two too? And two?
18:39
Speaker 2: So how are you going to complain? It's like not complaining,
18:42
Speaker 2: It's just it's don't compare it. Yeah, people just give
18:45
Speaker 2: give Williams some time. He's got a lot more growing
18:47
Speaker 2: pains than this. But there's just these little moments that
18:50
Speaker 2: gave me so excited about him and what its prospects
18:53
Speaker 2: are going for. And the biggest one is he's finding
18:55
Speaker 2: ways to win right now. And we talk all the
18:57
Speaker 2: time of football, you know, that's the hardest thing to do.
18:59
Speaker 2: Same with Knicks, Like, again, we're not gonna really talk
19:02
Speaker 2: about because didn't better. But it's like when you're a
19:04
Speaker 2: rookie and you can just find a way to win.
19:05
Speaker 2: I think at one point he was bow Knicks with
19:08
Speaker 2: seven of fifteen passing for minus seven yards. Yeah, and
19:11
Speaker 2: he's still got to win today. And it's like, if
19:13
Speaker 2: you're a fan of your team, that's the most that
19:16
Speaker 2: has to be the most exciting thing. You can just
19:17
Speaker 2: win these ugly games when you have a rookie quarterback.
19:20
Speaker 2: So yeah, Bears fans, you should be feeling pretty good
19:23
Speaker 2: being two and two. It's like that that that to me,
19:27
Speaker 2: if we're look at your guys four games start the season,
19:29
Speaker 2: this is right where I thought you would be. It's
19:31
Speaker 2: just you just had a really tough start. It's it's
19:33
Speaker 2: nice they're coming out too. And two.
19:34
Speaker 1: I will say another game that I've put on the
19:39
Speaker 1: list of early lines to discuss Bears Carolina Simon Hunter.
19:47
Speaker 1: For the first time this season, I'm going to ask
19:50
Speaker 1: you a very important question. You ready, Yeah, what's the
19:56
Speaker 1: best ticketing app in the United States?
20:00
Speaker 2: To me? Personally? Game Time?
20:03
Speaker 1: As many of you know, I'm a big fan of
20:05
Speaker 1: Game Time. I use it all the time. In fact,
20:09
Speaker 1: I'm going to open up the app right now and
20:11
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Speaker 1: the best deals on the best seats, so I don't
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Speaker 1: and redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off. Okay, Washington Arizona.
21:12
Speaker 1: I'll be completely honest. I never actually bet the Cardinals
21:17
Speaker 1: this week. I know they were in the contest. We
21:20
Speaker 1: liked him a lot. I felt okay getting him in
21:23
Speaker 1: the contest at three and a half because I did
21:25
Speaker 1: think the Cardinals were the right side. But I wanted
21:28
Speaker 1: a little bit more insurance, and I kept waiting for
21:30
Speaker 1: the number to get to three, waiting to get to three.
21:32
Speaker 1: I didn't want to pay the premium to get to
21:34
Speaker 1: minus three. So it just didn't happen. Not too sad
21:38
Speaker 1: about that now, but they are in the contest for US.
21:41
Speaker 1: Jadan Daniels talk about a contrast, and I'm not comparing
21:45
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams and jad and Daniels, like, oh, the Bears
21:48
Speaker 1: made the wrong pick. But Jaden Daniels is nimble and
21:53
Speaker 1: light and sort of alert in the pocket. Right. He's
22:00
Speaker 1: not just mobile for mobility's sake. He's mobile because he's
22:05
Speaker 1: seeing things and making himself difficult to bring down no
22:09
Speaker 1: matter what the circumstances around him. He's amazing. This team
22:14
Speaker 1: doesn't punt, they score it will they gained five hundred
22:17
Speaker 1: yards like it's a first down. I don't have to
22:20
Speaker 1: say about this guy. He's unreal.
22:23
Speaker 2: Yeah, and just I mean, if there is a team
22:26
Speaker 2: that is going to make the wrong pick, it is
22:27
Speaker 2: going to be the Bears. But it's impossible for them
22:30
Speaker 2: to know that they couldn't have made the wrong pick there. Like,
22:32
Speaker 2: to me, it's there's just too there's too many things
22:36
Speaker 2: with Daniels that this is all Like, I just can't
22:40
Speaker 2: believe how good it all is right now. He literally
22:42
Speaker 2: looks like he's back in LSU. Tom's a cucumber back
22:45
Speaker 2: there picking his spots. I mean, even when there's pressure,
22:49
Speaker 2: he makes the right read to step up. It's it's crazy,
22:53
Speaker 2: especially because you know I watched. I had a lot
22:55
Speaker 2: of money on different bets in that game. I think
22:57
Speaker 2: I lost every single one, and it was mainly because
22:59
Speaker 2: I was just like, this kid can't do it again.
23:02
Speaker 2: Like it's just that's that's historically a bad spot for
23:05
Speaker 2: a rookie. You know, the team will get hits on,
23:08
Speaker 2: it'll make them uncomfortable early in that game, and then
23:10
Speaker 2: I thought it would just go south and went the
23:12
Speaker 2: other way. Like they came out first drive touchdown, second
23:15
Speaker 2: drive touchdown, Like you said, they just I don't think
23:18
Speaker 2: they punted until the third quarter. Just yeah, just an
23:24
Speaker 2: incredible game for Daniels. If you're a Washington fan, this
23:27
Speaker 2: is literally the dream, Like your team had no expectations.
23:31
Speaker 2: You got a trash defense, you got an offensive line
23:34
Speaker 2: that's kind of thrown together, and you know, we love McLaurin,
23:37
Speaker 2: we love Robinson, but it's like, Okay, there's some pretty
23:40
Speaker 2: good weapons here, but you know, what's the best chances
23:43
Speaker 2: They're gonna be maybe the third or second seed in
23:45
Speaker 2: this division NFC East. I mean, it's not crazy to
23:49
Speaker 2: think if this kid doesn't get hurt and they keep
23:51
Speaker 2: on improving weekend and week out, they could easily be
23:54
Speaker 2: fighting for this division at end of the year. Like
23:55
Speaker 2: the Eagles Dallas, They're not bulletproof. These teams do have issues.
24:00
Speaker 2: It's like, yeah, if I was a Washington fan, I
24:03
Speaker 2: think them and the Vikings have to be the two
24:05
Speaker 2: highest fan bases right now. Like this is I feel
24:08
Speaker 2: so amazing for both these guys. So, yeah, the Daniels thing,
24:13
Speaker 2: you nailed it. It's like, I'm gonna make adjustment to it.
24:16
Speaker 2: I'm not going to overreact too much to it, but
24:19
Speaker 2: it's definitely that he's in a spot now where it's like, Okay,
24:23
Speaker 2: this This kid is for real, Like he's not just
24:26
Speaker 2: gonna keep beating up on bad defense. He's literally taking
24:28
Speaker 2: what the defenses are giving him. And he's being accurate.
24:31
Speaker 2: And like that's the hardest thing as a rookie is
24:33
Speaker 2: being consistently accurate, and that's what he's doing. So me
24:36
Speaker 2: and you have the same view of it. That kid
24:38
Speaker 2: is one dumb runaway from taking one bad hit and
24:41
Speaker 2: it all being over. But through four weeks he's surviving
24:46
Speaker 2: all these hits. So it's like, Okay, this kid in
24:48
Speaker 2: his college career survives all these hits. He's doing it
24:50
Speaker 2: again the pros. Maybe he's just built different. That's just
24:53
Speaker 2: the way it is. So yeah, really exciting times right
24:56
Speaker 2: now in DC.
24:57
Speaker 1: It's a throwback. But I keep thinking about RG three
25:00
Speaker 1: when I watch him. You know, very similar circumstances, right,
25:04
Speaker 1: Andrew Luck RG three, Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels. RG three
25:10
Speaker 1: was amazing his rookie year, gets that team to the playoffs,
25:15
Speaker 1: injures his knee because he's so mobile and thinks he
25:19
Speaker 1: can always get out of trouble. Injured his knee. I
25:22
Speaker 1: think in a play in the pocket. That's what I
25:24
Speaker 1: worry about with Jaden Daniels, like some fluky thing because
25:28
Speaker 1: of his mobility and his belief in himself to get
25:31
Speaker 1: himself out of trouble ends up playing him into trouble
25:34
Speaker 1: because we've seen it. We saw with Andy Richardson, like
25:37
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks who are super mobile and can get themselves
25:41
Speaker 1: out of trouble will sometimes run themselves into trouble. And
25:45
Speaker 1: he's a hit pointer away, right, It's just that's what
25:48
Speaker 1: you worry about.
25:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, But like I was saying that they've been smart
25:52
Speaker 2: with it, where the only time he's taking dumb hits
25:54
Speaker 2: is when he does scramble plays right, when he just
25:56
Speaker 2: tries to take guys on. When they've been designing a
25:58
Speaker 2: lot of his runs, they designed it a lot where
26:01
Speaker 2: he's either going outside or he's just falling forward. He's
26:04
Speaker 2: never really taken these direct shots. He's I mean, they've
26:07
Speaker 2: been telling him too, and he just talks about it
26:09
Speaker 2: really every game. He's just like, I know I need
26:12
Speaker 2: to get down. I take unnecessary hits, And this game
26:15
Speaker 2: was a perfect example at two different times where he
26:17
Speaker 2: could have taken a hit, and it's good to know
26:19
Speaker 2: in his own mind, he was like, I'm up ten
26:20
Speaker 2: points right now. I don't need to run through this guy. Yeah,
26:23
Speaker 2: I can get it down on the next down. So yeah,
26:26
Speaker 2: that it's like CJ from last year, Like these guys
26:28
Speaker 2: came in and you just can see it right away
26:31
Speaker 2: where it's like, Okay, dude, dude's probably gonna have a
26:34
Speaker 2: five to ten year NFL career just on base off.
26:36
Speaker 2: We've seen through a couple of games here. I felt
26:38
Speaker 2: the same way about CJ. So yeah, well can you say,
26:41
Speaker 2: can't say anymore? That was a terrible read. Just I
26:46
Speaker 2: can't believe this rookie just put up forty five on
26:48
Speaker 2: the road. Just back to back weeks of just an
26:50
Speaker 2: incredible offensive display by Washington.
26:52
Speaker 1: P veteran, naturally calm and comfortable Matt Mitchell. I know
26:56
Speaker 1: you're listening to the show right now as the producer
27:00
Speaker 1: hate me, but we are headed for a conversation about
27:05
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury as a head coaching candidate if this Washington
27:10
Speaker 1: team wins the division and Jaden Daniels went to offensive
27:13
Speaker 1: rookie of the years this good. You could hear like
27:16
Speaker 1: the announcers start to talk about Clinton.
27:20
Speaker 2: For Chicago, because right when you're saying this, it's popping
27:22
Speaker 2: into my head. It's like, oh my god, him in Chicago.
27:24
Speaker 1: Oh my It's like trade Rock right, Like they were
27:27
Speaker 1: starting to talk about, here's what Cliff Kingsbury learned from
27:30
Speaker 1: his time with the Cardinals, and this is what he
27:32
Speaker 1: would do different if he was a head coach again.
27:34
Speaker 1: And this is why he's running the offense this way
27:36
Speaker 1: and using more run and playing using different blocking schemes
27:39
Speaker 1: and not going for wide. And I'm like, oh my god,
27:43
Speaker 1: he's going to be a head coach. Kansas City at
27:45
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers, Simon. For the fourth week in a row,
27:53
Speaker 1: we have won our Tommy John Big Ball Batter of
27:58
Speaker 1: the week. Is it because Tommy John underwear makes us
28:03
Speaker 1: so comfortable? Is it because Tommy John underwear keeps us
28:07
Speaker 1: from sweating? Is it because every time we're wearing Tommy
28:10
Speaker 1: John we are so confident we can make the most
28:13
Speaker 1: outrageous bets we want to make and feel great that
28:16
Speaker 1: we're going to win. It's entirely possible. Because the Los
28:20
Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers were seven and a half point underdogs, they
28:24
Speaker 1: were our big Balls bet of the week. There was
28:27
Speaker 1: never a moment in this game where I was sweating
28:31
Speaker 1: and I remember you and I. We were discussing this
28:33
Speaker 1: game on Thursday, and I really wanted to play this game,
28:36
Speaker 1: and we were worried about all the injuries, and I
28:38
Speaker 1: wanted this rant about John Harbaugh, like his gift is
28:45
Speaker 1: telling his team they are going to be physical football
28:48
Speaker 1: players and they are going to will themselves into being
28:51
Speaker 1: competitive because he is speaking their most native language. He
28:56
Speaker 1: is saying, we are football players. We are going to
28:59
Speaker 1: beat up the people on the other side of the ball,
29:01
Speaker 1: and that is how we are going to stay in
29:03
Speaker 1: a game. And then on Thursday or Friday, I was
29:07
Speaker 1: going to send this to our slack chain, our favorite
29:10
Speaker 1: slack chain. There was a story in the Wall Street
29:13
Speaker 1: Journal about Jim Harbaugh throughout his career looking for fullbacks
29:21
Speaker 1: from defensive linemen. And he did it at Stanford, he
29:25
Speaker 1: did it at Michigan, he did it in San Francisco,
29:28
Speaker 1: and he's done it now with a guy in the Chargers.
29:30
Speaker 1: And that speaks to his mentality and why these games
29:33
Speaker 1: are close. And it's why we didn't care no Rashaun Slater,
29:37
Speaker 1: no Joe Alt no Bosa. We're playing. This game. Played
29:43
Speaker 1: exactly the type.
29:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, and also I think it played to the number
29:47
Speaker 2: which is what you basically were, just like, we have
29:49
Speaker 2: to take this because the number, I think we both
29:51
Speaker 2: agreed where it's like, okay, if Herbert's playing, we might
29:54
Speaker 2: get a free point here and this might drop to
29:56
Speaker 2: six and a half, which he did before kickoff. The
29:59
Speaker 2: number lands right on. Pretty tough beat if you have
30:02
Speaker 2: the six and a half, where you know, like you
30:04
Speaker 2: just said, it felt like the Chargers dominated that entire game.
30:08
Speaker 2: A couple of weird plays not kicking field goals, had
30:10
Speaker 2: to miss field goal. I can't believe you fee anyone
30:13
Speaker 2: had the six and a half. You didn't cover just
30:15
Speaker 2: a brutal note cover on that. But yeah, we loved
30:18
Speaker 2: it at seven and a half. You could have got
30:20
Speaker 2: it eight and a half at different points during the week.
30:24
Speaker 2: I told you the drop off in my model from
30:27
Speaker 2: going from Herbert the Heineke was staggery, and it was
30:31
Speaker 2: like it had to be Herbert if it wasn't mean
30:33
Speaker 2: you were gonna even though we had a good number
30:35
Speaker 2: on Tampa, I was gonna make us throw it out
30:37
Speaker 2: because it's I like Tampa anyway at plus one. But
30:39
Speaker 2: it was like, I'm not I'm not taking Heinekee. I
30:41
Speaker 2: just couldn't do it, and so I'm so glad we
30:44
Speaker 2: got word earlier this morning. It was gonna be Herbert.
30:46
Speaker 2: And you saw in that first half, right, he had
30:48
Speaker 2: a couple of throws before you got a hit where
30:50
Speaker 2: it's like, that's why I love this guy in this
30:52
Speaker 2: hardball offense where he's not doing too much, he's taking
30:55
Speaker 2: the simple read. Then we saw, you know Herbert, not
30:59
Speaker 2: that it's old Herbert, but it's like, once you start
31:01
Speaker 2: gett pressure on him, get him a little uncomfortable, and
31:03
Speaker 2: he gets flustered. We've seen it time and time again.
31:06
Speaker 2: Now he just the game doesn't really work out for him.
31:08
Speaker 2: So if you're a Chargers fan, i'd be pretty pissed off,
31:11
Speaker 2: Like that was a game I feel like they should
31:13
Speaker 2: have won. They played better than the Chiefs that whole game.
31:16
Speaker 2: But yeah, the Mahomes magic, I just I really thought
31:20
Speaker 2: the same thing where I was like, damn, I fuck
31:22
Speaker 2: an idiotelling Chad not to put this Chargers money line
31:25
Speaker 2: around Robin. No, it's Mahomes. He was eventually gonna win
31:29
Speaker 2: that game. It's just what he does. And that's why
31:31
Speaker 2: I never take the money line of the Chargers against Mahomes.
31:34
Speaker 2: He just historically always beats them. The Raiders is different.
31:36
Speaker 2: We do bet their money line against Mahomes, but not
31:39
Speaker 2: the Chargers. So yeah, great Reid took in the take
31:42
Speaker 2: of that one and the Bears. Yeah. Great. Great week
31:45
Speaker 2: for Chad.
31:46
Speaker 1: Great week for Chad. Chad's feeling great about himself this week.
31:49
Speaker 1: Lockedown Kansas City by the way from Evan Abrams. One
31:54
Speaker 1: breaking news, Andy Reid saying that Rashid Rice has a
31:59
Speaker 1: torn or not Andy Reid, Adam Schefter reporting that she
32:03
Speaker 1: Rice has a It's feared he has a torn acl
32:07
Speaker 1: He saw the play. It was devastating then if you
32:10
Speaker 1: saw that poor kid being carted off and just how
32:14
Speaker 1: devastating it was and how sad he looked. Mahomes is
32:19
Speaker 1: now eighteen and one straight up in road neutral division games.
32:25
Speaker 1: The only game he lost was to russ and Denver
32:29
Speaker 1: last year. Kansas City is now what is that? Sixteen
32:34
Speaker 1: and twelve straight up in games they trailed by ten
32:41
Speaker 1: points at any point since twenty nineteen. The next highest
32:46
Speaker 1: win percentage by any team in that window is the
32:49
Speaker 1: Eagles at twenty eight percent. I mean, come on, that's
32:52
Speaker 1: how good Patrick Mahomes is. It's ridiculous.
32:56
Speaker 2: That's crazy. I don't know why I thought Mahomes lost
32:59
Speaker 2: to the Raiders in Las Vegas on Christmas last year,
33:02
Speaker 2: but that must have been in Kansas City, which is
33:04
Speaker 2: even more insane.
33:05
Speaker 1: He's insane. Yeah, but we did the right thing. I
33:09
Speaker 1: feel terrible for Herbert, like he was a sitting duck
33:12
Speaker 1: in that game. It was almost unconscionable that they had
33:15
Speaker 1: him keep playing because he could not move, and if
33:18
Speaker 1: he didn't get the.
33:19
Speaker 2: First to read it, well for not being to move,
33:21
Speaker 2: if it wasn't the first.
33:22
Speaker 1: Read, he couldn't do anything right, and so that was
33:26
Speaker 1: that was too bad. But look good week for us,
33:30
Speaker 1: really excited creeping back into respectability in the contest. As
33:35
Speaker 1: he told me this morning, it's a long season, so
33:39
Speaker 1: we're just going to keep grinding time it is.
33:41
Speaker 2: That's why I felt that, where like I get why
33:43
Speaker 2: you stress and worry, not that you were Joe public,
33:46
Speaker 2: but like me, I just it sucks. I want to
33:49
Speaker 2: win here, but it's like, dude, it's such a long season,
33:52
Speaker 2: like you really can't stress about wins and loss. Even
33:55
Speaker 2: this week we just won. I feel the same as
33:58
Speaker 2: I did last week, where it's like all right on
34:01
Speaker 2: the next week, already look at the lines for next week.
34:03
Speaker 2: It's I always want to win, but it's just we're
34:05
Speaker 2: in grind mode here. So you know, we got to
34:08
Speaker 2: get out of this pit we dug ourselves into. So
34:10
Speaker 2: once we get out of this little hole, I'll be happy.
34:12
Speaker 2: But yeah, that's that's the goal right now, is to
34:14
Speaker 2: get above five hundred.
34:17
Speaker 1: I don't get down about one week. I get down
34:21
Speaker 1: about multiple weeks. That's when I'm like, oh my god,
34:25
Speaker 1: I can't believe we got to do this again.
34:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, listen to a week one tape. You know you
34:29
Speaker 2: get down the week It's okay. I will hoard it
34:31
Speaker 2: against you. I mean it's I get it. It's no
34:33
Speaker 2: one wants to fucking lose me, and you are very competitive,
34:36
Speaker 2: so I'm right there with you. It's just there's sometimes
34:39
Speaker 2: you come on here, I'm just like, God damn it, Chad,
34:42
Speaker 2: God damn it.
34:46
Speaker 1: I'm keeping it together today. I'm not going over the
34:49
Speaker 1: top happy today. I'm acting like I've been here before. Okay,
34:56
Speaker 1: you don't think so, you think I'm being too I
34:59
Speaker 1: want you up.
35:00
Speaker 2: You lit are your favorite team, just one your rookie
35:02
Speaker 2: QB is healthy and you. You just said you're perfect
35:05
Speaker 2: in the app right now. You didn't lose a bet today.
35:06
Speaker 2: You should be fucking happy, my man.
35:09
Speaker 1: I'm happy. I'm so happy. I want to talk about
35:12
Speaker 1: next week's lines.
35:13
Speaker 2: Let's go.
35:14
Speaker 1: I identified five different games. I'm not gonna I just want
35:19
Speaker 1: to see if you and I are aligned on far away.
35:21
Speaker 2: I love it.
35:23
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay plus two and a half. I want them
35:26
Speaker 1: as a short division fave, a short division dog. We
35:31
Speaker 1: have that stat about division favorites. Yeah, not doing well
35:36
Speaker 1: forty five percent against the spread short home favorites since
35:39
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. You want to take Atlanta here?
35:42
Speaker 2: Of course I don't. But god, God damn it, Chad, Yeah,
35:47
Speaker 2: I got no read on that one.
35:48
Speaker 1: All right, Well we don't have to play it. Carolina
35:51
Speaker 1: plus five against the Bears, gotta got it, gotta It's like,
35:56
Speaker 1: that's a no brainer. Bet it right now. We have to.
36:00
Speaker 2: I think anytime we're getting over three with a you know,
36:06
Speaker 2: nothing against Keleb Williams, but just he has to earn
36:09
Speaker 2: a higher number from me. So yeah, if you can
36:11
Speaker 2: get a plus five right now on Caroline, I'd grab
36:13
Speaker 2: it right now.
36:14
Speaker 1: I got Indie plus three only because it's a short
36:17
Speaker 1: home dog, I mean a short road dog in the
36:21
Speaker 1: division against Jacksonville. I think Jacksonville, Like we both liked
36:26
Speaker 1: Jacksonville this week, we didn't put him in the contest.
36:30
Speaker 1: But I do think this team is in trouble and
36:33
Speaker 1: figuring out who they are and probably losing confidence because
36:36
Speaker 1: they can't seem to win even when they have the
36:38
Speaker 1: game at hand. What worries me is we don't know
36:40
Speaker 1: who's playing quarterback for the Colts right now.
36:44
Speaker 2: Even if it's Joe Flacco. I don't mind taking the
36:46
Speaker 2: plus three, but it's like, yeah, this is probably really chalky,
36:50
Speaker 2: and this might be a spot we buy out of
36:52
Speaker 2: as the week goes along here, but yeah, I don't
36:58
Speaker 2: mind taking.
36:58
Speaker 1: It all right. Okay, green Bay was at three when
37:06
Speaker 1: we started the show on the road at LA now
37:10
Speaker 1: three and a half.
37:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, right away, I was like, you got to take
37:15
Speaker 2: green Bay there. It sucks us up to three and
37:16
Speaker 2: a half. I'd still take that.
37:18
Speaker 1: Uh yeah.
37:19
Speaker 2: The fear. The fear was Jordan Love wouldn't look right.
37:22
Speaker 2: And I wish I'd listened to us on Thursday because
37:25
Speaker 2: we kind of nailed it right. He just came out
37:27
Speaker 2: and not looking right. He took him a while to
37:29
Speaker 2: get comfortable, kind of get his legs underneath them, and.
37:32
Speaker 1: Then he was amazing.
37:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is this is like the perfect matchup for
37:36
Speaker 2: this team, you know, this Rams, this Rams team. I
37:40
Speaker 2: don't know when they're going to trade Stafford, but that
37:41
Speaker 2: has to be the move. It's just they don't have
37:44
Speaker 2: any they don't have any pieces. It's just they're they're
37:47
Speaker 2: so depending right now on Williams in that run game
37:49
Speaker 2: because it's like Stafford's having to force the ball in
37:52
Speaker 2: on first second year players who aren't that good. It's
37:56
Speaker 2: just all bad for the Rams. So I'm with you
37:58
Speaker 2: on that Green Bay. I grab him right now.
38:00
Speaker 1: Three three and a half h This one is a
38:03
Speaker 1: little different. Dallas plus two at Pittsburgh.
38:10
Speaker 2: I hate it. I know, I just think I just
38:13
Speaker 2: like Pittsburgh When I get where you're going with this,
38:15
Speaker 2: it's like this is usually where we fade the Steelers.
38:18
Speaker 2: But defensively, this is a great matchup for them being
38:22
Speaker 2: able to attack like they have two rookie tackles like this
38:25
Speaker 2: is this is what you dream about when you're talking
38:28
Speaker 2: about Pittsburgh and TJ. Watt and Cam Hayward and on
38:31
Speaker 2: the flip side. Pittsburgh wants to run the read option
38:34
Speaker 2: like you saw it today. They came back because they
38:35
Speaker 2: wore out that Colt steam. Yeah, sam could be said
38:38
Speaker 2: for this Dallas team. So I'll grab there's one and
38:42
Speaker 2: a half sut there. I'll grab that on Pittsburgh. But
38:45
Speaker 2: I get where you're coming from here with Dallas caause
38:47
Speaker 2: it feels like a nice spot to buy a low
38:49
Speaker 2: on them because you know they're gonna have extended rest
38:51
Speaker 2: as well. I'm just I'm just trying to think matchup wise.
38:56
Speaker 2: I know I'm gonna favorite this Pittsburgh team, but yeah,
39:00
Speaker 2: this is this is a tough line.
39:02
Speaker 1: What are I miss? What do you got?
39:05
Speaker 2: So? Once that jumped right out to me right away,
39:08
Speaker 2: you can get Vegas right now is a plus two
39:10
Speaker 2: dog to Denver. I'm excited for bow Knicks back to
39:14
Speaker 2: back road wins coming home now. I mean, come on,
39:19
Speaker 2: don't don't we have to.
39:20
Speaker 1: Take you have to take the road dog under a
39:25
Speaker 1: field goal in the division.
39:27
Speaker 2: And I agree, like especially in this number in this
39:29
Speaker 2: spot where it's like that one jumped out to me.
39:31
Speaker 2: It's like, okay, I talk all the time, how I
39:33
Speaker 2: think two is such a key number. It could go
39:36
Speaker 2: up to it go up to two and a half,
39:38
Speaker 2: go up to three. Like, I don't know if the
39:39
Speaker 2: pros will be on this one, but for me, right now,
39:41
Speaker 2: that's a game I'm gonna grab right away. The fishiest
39:45
Speaker 2: line I saw on the board, which again I thought
39:48
Speaker 2: you were gonna bring this game up. Uh, you can
39:51
Speaker 2: get the Bills right now minus two against Houston. Houston
39:56
Speaker 2: just barely beat the Jaguars. I got to me, Houston
39:59
Speaker 2: is not right. So that's a game. I'm gonna throw
40:02
Speaker 2: a little on it, just in case the Bills just
40:04
Speaker 2: absolutely roll the Ravens, even though we were both on
40:06
Speaker 2: the Ravens. This is just kind of a hedge bet.
40:09
Speaker 2: And then the stinkiest line of the week Washington's minus
40:12
Speaker 2: three and a half against Cleveland. So we have an
40:16
Speaker 2: offense that can't punt. All they do is score, and
40:20
Speaker 2: on the flip side, we have an offense that if
40:21
Speaker 2: they don't have a ninety yard touchdown pass to Amari Cooper,
40:25
Speaker 2: it's painful to watch Cleveland try to drive the field.
40:27
Speaker 2: They're so bad, so inconsistent. I do not understand that
40:32
Speaker 2: line on No, I haven't bet this Commander's line, but
40:34
Speaker 2: like right when we were talking about the lines that
40:35
Speaker 2: one jumped out in the last game, which I thought
40:38
Speaker 2: you were gonna bring up. Bengals right now? Are plus
40:41
Speaker 2: one at home against the Ravens.
40:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, two things the Washington game and we were
40:48
Speaker 1: watching When we were watching the Washington game today, in
40:52
Speaker 1: my head, I was thinking, are they are they peaking
40:57
Speaker 1: even more? Is it going to be time to sell
40:59
Speaker 1: them next week?
41:01
Speaker 2: I thought this was gonna be like six or seven.
41:04
Speaker 2: It's it's three and a half.
41:05
Speaker 1: It's three. But so something to me that feels fishy,
41:09
Speaker 1: like what am I missing? The line is not bigger?
41:12
Speaker 2: Right? That makes me want to take the Browns.
41:15
Speaker 1: So that's what I'm saying.
41:18
Speaker 2: That's why that's what I'm saying, the same thing with
41:20
Speaker 2: this Bengals here, it's like why would you why would
41:22
Speaker 2: we not take the Ravens. The Bengals suck like their
41:26
Speaker 2: defense is atrocious, and you know, there was a couple
41:29
Speaker 2: of miracle plays today by Joe Burrow and Chase and
41:32
Speaker 2: it's like, how consistent is this team gonna be? And
41:35
Speaker 2: we all thought, you know, the Bengals wild eventually get
41:37
Speaker 2: finally get their win where they're now one in three,
41:39
Speaker 2: But yeah, I was, I was gonna want to take
41:43
Speaker 2: the Ravens in this spot. Now I'm just like, Okay,
41:45
Speaker 2: apparently this is a good number to take the Bengals,
41:47
Speaker 2: even in the action app I know this is obviously
41:49
Speaker 2: insanely uri early, but it's like ninety percent of the
41:53
Speaker 2: bets and all the money right now is on the Ravens.
41:56
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's a good spot to take the Bengals.
41:58
Speaker 2: It feels that way. So I see what happens tonight.
42:00
Speaker 2: I'm not going to bet it yet because if the
42:02
Speaker 2: Ravens they roll this Bills team, let us get a
42:06
Speaker 2: plus three on the Bengals, then we're really cooking. So yeah,
42:09
Speaker 2: those are just early lines that jumped out to me. Chad,
42:11
Speaker 2: where you know, I mean, you were making like, got
42:16
Speaker 2: to bet at right now? I thought you nailed it
42:17
Speaker 2: right away with the Panthers bet. The other one for
42:21
Speaker 2: me is just that Vegas bet. I really liked that number.
42:23
Speaker 1: Panthers plus five, Vegas plus two. Those are the games
42:26
Speaker 1: that we probably bet right away, a little taste on
42:29
Speaker 1: Green Bay minus three and a half. The rest we're
42:31
Speaker 1: gonna wait and see how things go. We are on
42:36
Speaker 1: the Ravens tonight minus two and a half. I also
42:41
Speaker 1: liked Raybona convinced me today like Josh Allen over his
42:46
Speaker 1: passing yardage total. It was at like two twenty eight
42:49
Speaker 1: this morning, two thirty by the time we were on
42:51
Speaker 1: the show. I don't even know what it's at now
42:53
Speaker 1: I got it. I think at two thirty and a half.
42:56
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