Latest / The Curve / TCW30: 115 million reasons to think about renting your house out on Airbnb and HOT GOSS on why Vic doesn’t invest in airlines.

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TCW30: 115 million reasons to think about renting your house out on Airbnb and HOT GOSS on why Vic doesn’t invest in airlines. · The Curve

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  Hi and welcome to the Curve Weekly. The podcast that keeps you up to date with all the
• 0:06
  money, business and stock market tea. Everyone should experience for us at least once
• 0:10
  in their lives and Annie shouldn't miss out just because she can't afford it. Help me
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  in. Oh my gosh. We're actually going to see what our next podcast is. We're going to see
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  really, really. We do this all the time. We try and stack in lots of episodes. We've
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  got this weekend. She shouldn't really say it's a surprise, but that's really exciting
• 0:29
  UK guest coming in. And God, it's like every time you have to be ready because there's
• 0:36
  like someone else external coming in, something happen, something goes wrong. How can we
• 0:41
  get right a book on the technical difficulties? Yes, seriously. If anyone wants to find
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  to be our technical producer, we'll pay you so much. We'll pay you all the money. But
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  share the size. It's just like. Do you know I saw someone post on Instagram this week saying
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  your wrap ups, like the Curve Weekly, was did you say that message? It was something about
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  like how helpful it was to see what's going on, broken down in a really easy to understand
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  way. And I just thought, yeah, I am useful doing such a good job. Thanks. I actually love
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  these ones because it gives me up to date as well. So I'm reading the news and I'm like, yeah,
• 1:22
  that's happened. Wow, that's happened. Although some stuff I find interesting, you probably
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  won't. No, I listen back to it and I'm like, that's getting the cut. Yes. Do we have any
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  fun stuff happening in this week? Like in my life? Oh, yeah. No. Actually, yeah, do. I've got
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  my bags back this morning, which I was stoked about. Like, we're not on a holiday
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  at Greece. Yeah. And, um, it's the 10th. I actually showed up to recording Jan. I go,
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  oh, damn, I wish I had fed Jan. It looks so good. She was like, it's not vague. What a day.
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  Such a day. You got your bag lost. Well, yes, coming back to Heathrow from Athens,
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  we were like, waiting at the carousel for an hour. And then shoot this lady came around,
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  handing out these little pieces of white paper. I was like, no, mum was right. Never take a
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  big suitcase on holiday. Did you have a tile in your bag? No. I think that's key. I know. Yeah,
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  my parents borrowed them when they traveled and they didn't give them back. So I was kind of
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  blaming them. But I also didn't have any name tag on my bag. Oh, no description. Like nothing.
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  I feel like that's off brand. Well, I just, I'm quite risky. No, you're not. You're on 25%
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  of your furniture. You're like, where's the charger? Yeah, but that's like, that's, that's productivity.
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  Right. You know, whereas, you know, I hired a car in Greece and they're like, Jon insurance.
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  I was like, no, whatever. This feels so weird. Who are you? Holiday back. Anyways.
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  Okay. Hit me with the actual news. So we're still in reporting season, which is when public
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  companies report their financial results. And we've got some exciting ones this week. I don't know,
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  I'm talking about American accent. We have these two girls on great holiday with us that were
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  American. And by the end of it, I was like, hey, are they able to, they are from like the Easter
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  West side. I don't know. I, I'm really not with a man. But you know, by the end of it,
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  I was like saying certain words. I was like, wow, this is what happened at school with my
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  German teacher. Honestly, if it was, if it was socially acceptable to develop a British accent,
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  while I'm over here, I would, I think you'd be surprised there'll be some words when you go back
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  to that. Not for a short period of time. Just do it. Just come back after four months.
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  Oh, does anyone want to find me in Martini? Oh my gosh. What happened to so people right?
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  Okay. Anyway, we have so much class here though, British. What about sex? Sorry, sorry, sorry.
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  So Uber, so they announced their results last week. And you might be surprised to know,
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  do they do shit? This is the first time. So it's a quarterly. So it's for the three months
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  ending to the end of June. Yeah. That these companies are reporting. And Uber announced its first
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  profit ever since being a list of company. So it has been unprofitable since 2014 when it first
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  became public. Isn't it like the rule of thumb with any start that you want to be making profit
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  in the first year and a half? Is that not right? No. Why does everyone, I thought that was a thing.
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  No, if you're growing, if you're reinvesting your profits and growing the business, investors
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  like that, where as if you're a bit older and a bit more stale and a bit more slow and growth,
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  then that's when you pay dividends, which rewards investors. So it's kind of depends what you're
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  after. If you have to really high growth or a little kind of sluggish growth. Yeah. Yeah. But
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  anyway, yeah, surprisingly, it had burnt through $32 billion since it's listing in 2014. And then
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  this quarter, it made $330 million. So it's first called their profit. What do you think would be good
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  news? Oh God, did they not do well? But the share price fell because they didn't generate as much
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  as they should have in terms of profit. But yeah, and also competition. They called out competition,
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  saying that lift, which is the other right-sharing platformers, has made price cuts and is
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  effectively being a really good competitor. So, you know, good on lift. Yeah. Good on lift.
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  Well, I just mean like, you know, it's kind of nice when it's not so easy for someone. I like
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  the idea of there being some competition totally, but a lot of companies don't call out competitors.
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  So the fact that they've called out that lift is actually doing quite well. It's quite cool from
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  them. Yeah. But anyway, the shares, even though they fell after that result, they are up 84%
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  this year. So, you know, you're still doing pretty well over. In other news, we had Apple and
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  Amazon report their results as well. And this was quite interesting with these two tech names,
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  because they're very, very different. So Apple is effectively a sales slump at the moment. So,
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  and investors are starting to get nervous. This is the third quarter in a row that Apple's
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  sales have fallen. Why? I thought they were doing well. So, they're a consumer products business
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  at the end of the day. People aren't spending as much. So, you know, they're starting to set the
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  pinch. But this is quite surprising for Apple, which has kind of been the poster child. You know,
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  it's the first trillion dollar company and all that kind of stuff. It has done very well. But
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  I feel like they just seem to do a hat trick or like pull something out of the bag and then
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  they're away saying. Yeah. I mean, it's kind of a high quality company. Yes, there's a few
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  quarters where it's down, but you know, lo and behold, they'll announce something else.
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  Yeah. To be honest, I reckon this is another example of times where I would buy Apple if it's
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  gone down. In fact, maybe I'll do that because I think that I don't know, I still love Apple as a
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  company out. It's still one investment. Yeah. Do you own any? I do. And then we also had Amazon,
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  which was kind of the flip side. It was like a really, really good result, saying really strong
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  growth in their cloud, their Amazon web services. And so, they're doing really, really well.
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  The thing with Apple and Amazon and you can't really compare apples with apples. Oh,
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  God, she did it. Well, it's apples and oranges, I guess. And they are selling that continue.
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  And I was like, yes, I can get one of them. I was telling people, oh, okay, this is a bit of a
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  secret about my work in stock, stock jokes. And I hope the shares don't slide and all that.
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  I was telling my friends about it. Yeah. No, just me. I'm used to it. Anyway, sorry, during the pandemic,
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  Apple didn't hire a ton of staff. And therefore, they're not cutting stuff now. Whereas Amazon
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  during the pandemic hired a whole lot of staff and had to cut them. So I think we're now seeing the
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  fact that Amazon's got a lower cost space, like lower expenses. And Apple is still, you know, higher.
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  So there's kind of a lot of discrepancy is going on. But yeah, definitely quite stark contrast
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  in terms of results. And I've lost her. Yes, sorry, I've lost. Thank you. That's amazing.
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  Also, Amazon, talking about AI, honestly, the number of companies talking about AI,
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  and the share price movements is quite remarkable in terms of the correlation.
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  I mean, surely there's a shitload of them that are just like, AI for the same thing. Yeah,
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  and then investors are like, oh, oh, and then buy the shares and think that their
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  bit companies on the next biggest trend. So yeah, it's kind of, don't be fooled. Also, we had
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  Airbnb. Oh, yeah. Their shares fell as well. Not a very good result. Why are all of them?
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  Is there like a theme with all of it? Because a lot of these are tech companies. Yeah. Yeah.
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  Is that, is there a collective? Is there something happening where they're all being affected
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  by the same thing? Or is it just Amazon did well? Apple, Uber, Airbnb, not so much.
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  They've all done so well. Like, Airbnb is up 64% this year. So you don't say not well.
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  It's still in the scheme of things well. Totally. Yeah. It's like, it's the reaction to
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  to its result was not good. People are so annoying. But it's because it's done so well. Of course,
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  if I'm sitting there and I'm holding stock in say, Airbnb and it's done, I've done 64%
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  and it has a okay result. I'd be like, you know what? Maybe if I need the money, I might sell some
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  because it's done so well. So when you say it's done 64% is that in the last, did you say,
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  yeah? Yeah, today. So that means from this time last year. No, from December 31st till now.
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  Yep. It's share prices up 64%. Wow. Yeah. So if you'd put in $100 in December,
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  you'd have $160 now. Yes. Yes. Yeah. Wow. That's pretty amazing. Yeah. If you put in $100,000,
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  you'd have $160,000. Whoa. People put in a million. You get the point. Yeah.
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  But Airbnb's result was bad because just the prices of Airbnb's now have gone
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  like through the roof. Is that all over the world? Yeah. So
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  is that just because everyone's rent's expensive. So people are bumping up their
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  stay. Yeah. In holidays and yeah. So everyone's demanding Airbnb and the prices are just going,
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  they're supply and demand, low supply, high demand. But people booked 115 million nights at Airbnb's
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  in the last three months of the June quarter, three months of the June quarter, 115 million nights.
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  I want to have many years that would be. That's a lot. That's a lot. That's a lot of stays. Yep.
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  So Airbnb is one of those companies where I don't feel like there's a huge amount of competition
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  in that space. I know. Is that maybe why the share price? I mean, obviously, it's a well-run company
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  and their profits, they're doing well. Is it because I mean, like, really, I can't think of any,
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  I mean, booking.com isn't the same. I think.com's getting better. Are they? Yeah. But no, yeah,
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  Airbnb definitely has a true monopoly. Yes. Competitive advantage. Is that what's out of my mouth.
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  But the thing is that they need to grow. They need the supply of people renting out their homes.
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  So yeah, it's kind of that chicken and egg. There's something about like some secondary tax that you
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  get if you're earning a certain amount over from from Airbnb. And I think it's annoying a lot of
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  people like I've got some friends who wanted to do a long six month rental or do it consecutively
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  through a six month period. And when they worked out how much they were having getting tax on it
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  kind of didn't feel worth it for them. Yeah, yeah. I don't know if there's a way around that for Airbnb.
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  And there's certain places where you can only rent out your place for a set number of days,
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  you know, and there's certain areas where they don't allow you, maybe at all. Would you be
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  uncomfortable with someone renting your house? Yeah. Prens when they were. No, but some people
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  are aware about it. They're like, I don't want a random person in my bed. I don't want people
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  using my stuff. Oh, I'm not well, I'm there. Like not well, obviously. In the other room.
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  Hello. It just does like it. I just need room. Yeah, Airbnb half my bed. Oh, there's a bit of
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  that's called hinge. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
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  You're getting funny. By the way, Eric. Oh, they're mentioning me. I need to be the year. Oh, gosh.
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  Okay. And then I guess on the economic side of things, we've had some house price data
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  come out in New Zealand and the UK actually. In New Zealand, house prices, the decline is starting
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  to slow, which is a good sign. So remember, a few weeks ago, we had interest rates were kind
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  of peaking. It was light at the end of the tunnel. So interest rates peaking is the idea that
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  the people aren't going to have to continue to pay more and more and more out of their mortgage
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  for just for interest because it was not going to go up any more. Like they have been reached
• 12:47
  the top of the mountain and then now they're going to start coming down. Yeah. Which means mortgage
• 12:51
  rates have reached the top of the mountain and hopefully going to come down. And mortgage rates
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  is that what you paid back on your house, if you own it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So the fact that now
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  house prices, the decline is starting to slow. It means that at the bottom of like a trough
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  and then you're going to go back up. So it's a good time to buy if you will. You can't really see
• 13:11
  my hands. They're kind of going in opposite direction. Yeah. It's going up and one's coming down.
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  Yeah. It's like one's at the top of the hill, one's at the bottom of the valley and now they're
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  going to meet in the middle. Yeah. And so I know it's not trying to time the market and if you're trying
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  to buy a property, you're probably investing because you want a home, which means you know, there's
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  a lot more you're considering than just when it's a good time to buy yourself. But if you were in a
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  situation where you had money and you could think about getting so your first home, well it could
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  be a good time because if you could stomach mortgage rates this high for maybe 12, 18 months,
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  then it would be a good time to buy because prices are cheaper. Right now house prices.
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  But then it's kind of your catch 22 because then you could buy a house with the price higher
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  and you'll be paying a low mortgage amount. So it depends what you're willing to
• 14:01
  stomach a bit. Properly is so much. Well, we're going to do some more property stuff moving
• 14:07
  for us. Yeah. But now is not that time. Yeah. Maybe the curbs should invest in property. Imagine.
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  That would be really great. Imagine if we had a house in London and a house in New Zealand.
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  It would be amazing. God, that would be good. That's a New Zealand. And then we had in the UK,
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  we also had house prices falling, which is no surprise. We've got interest rates rising,
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  which means we've got mortgage rates rising in the UK as well. But this was the fastest fall
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  in house prices since 2009. So we're really seeing that house price fall ramp up in the UK.
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  And they're expected to fall about 30%. Which is, I mean, that's probably a bit ambitious,
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  but you don't reckon we'll get that. As in, yeah, as in it's probably a bit of headline
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  scare mongering. And I mean, they only fell 20% in the global financial crisis. That was
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  the whole world was in turmoil. So fingers crossed, they don't fall that far. And then
• 15:06
  at question time, so we had a really good question coming from the audience.
• 15:11
  Hey, side note, do you know what I've noticed in Spotify? There's Q&A at the bottom of each
• 15:17
  episode. So I can wish we'll start asking some questions in there because you can comment,
• 15:21
  which I think is really cool. Because then we know it's about the podcast,
• 15:25
  rather than it coming through Instagram, like obviously in Strams Fine, if that's easier for you.
• 15:29
  But quite cool, they're starting conversations on the platform. And if anyone does want a
• 15:34
  question answered on the podcast, yeah, it's kind of like a shout out to the radio stations.
• 15:38
  They'll be like, oh, I've definitely done that. I'd be like, yes, I got through. Can I say happy
• 15:42
  birthday to my friend, Lucy? Yeah, I hope that should hear, which probably doesn't.
• 15:46
  I remember calling classic hits when I was like 12, like 97.4. And I remember I wasn't,
• 15:52
  oh, a coony with my family on holiday. And I called and I got through and I couldn't believe
• 15:57
  how shocked I was. And I was like, they're like, hello. And I was like, oh, hi,
• 16:01
  what song do you want to play? And I couldn't for the life of me think of a song.
• 16:06
  The song that I came up with was so embarrassing that I was like, what is my one job?
• 16:11
  Yeah, my one job. Yes, but it's kind of like a radio shout out. Yeah, no. So this is the radio
• 16:17
  shout out. But it's actually quite cool because it means that you, a lot of people, when they're
• 16:21
  asking questions, I imagine a lot of other listeners are wondering similar things. So it's nice to
• 16:26
  get your questions, but also help lots of other people. And people are probably thinking the same
• 16:30
  question as well, which haven't asked or to get to ask. So I'm sorry. I was reading a question.
• 16:36
  Okay, someone sent in a question saying, they basically bought a stock. They bought Air New Zealand
• 16:42
  when that stock split happened. So they bought, I don't know what they, basically they bought a stock
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  split. They put a hundred dollars in Air New Zealand. And immediately after they bought it,
• 16:50
  which they hadn't because it's gone down in value, I think it's lost 18%. Am I better to sell that now?
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  Or do I just, if I'm not worried about that hundred dollars, do I just leave it there?
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  By the way, it was a much more long convoluted question the way I said it. So I was just summarising
• 17:07
  if you're enough. Good. Good. I guess it depends on what you think that airline or
• 17:12
  Air New Zealand is going to look like in the future. What the company is going to look like in the
• 17:16
  future. Do you think that everyone's going to be back flying that they're going to be really good?
• 17:21
  They're going to take market share. You know, they're in a really good competitive position. And
• 17:24
  therefore, those shares will rebound. Or are you like, you know what? I think that they've had
• 17:31
  their heyday and they've had this complete boost post pandemic. Now they're going to be in a bit
• 17:35
  of a low period. And I might need the money, you know, like it's totally up to, it's a combination
• 17:41
  of what you think the company is going to do in the future. And also when you're going to need
• 17:45
  that money or what your investing goal is. So if you're like, look, I need that money in a couple
• 17:50
  years. And I don't think that the stock's going to rebound. Well, the company's going to rebound
• 17:54
  in that period of time. You could cut your losses. You could cut your losses. But if you're like,
• 17:57
  you know what? I'm saying for a time, I'm not actually that phased. And I've got 20 years
• 18:03
  until I need the money. I'm going to wait it out. It kind of depends, which is not the most
• 18:08
  helpful answer. The reason I chose this question is because actually I also resonate. I bought.
• 18:13
  I only bought a hundred dollars. Yeah. But I bought a hundred dollars when the stock split thing
• 18:17
  happened. And I think mine's gone down to maybe like 80 or something. It's also me. I find
• 18:22
  airlines really hard to invest in because there's such capital intensive businesses. You know, like
• 18:27
  if you think about the curve as a business, very capital light, we like it's a digital business.
• 18:32
  Everything's online, apart from microphones and laptops in ourselves, we don't really have to
• 18:38
  pay a lot of money or capital for a lot of things. Whereas airlines, you've got to pay for oil,
• 18:43
  you've got to pay big outlay, big ticket items, like airplanes, you know, like they cost
• 18:48
  millions. And so you've constantly in order to grow. Like if you have a hundred thousand more
• 18:56
  people that want to fly the airline, you need a lot more planes for that. You can't just,
• 19:01
  it's not scalable unless you invest a lot of money. And so that's personally why I don't like them.
• 19:08
  But some people, you know, and then you've got the oil price fluctuations. You've got labor,
• 19:13
  you've got all these other things that kind of come into it, which the price of oil is so out
• 19:18
  of pretty much anyone's control, yet it can have huge swing factors on profits of the airlines.
• 19:24
  So there's just a lot of things that I'm like, you're too hard to hard basket. You're like,
• 19:28
  cool things. Yeah. I'm like, I remember when the stock split happened. You were like, hey,
• 19:33
  you should know this. You weren't saying investor. You were like, this is the thing happening.
• 19:37
  Why don't you just, I'm going to make a bad decision. Can you just give me like a,
• 19:41
  so sometimes when you, you know, that's when you learn the most, okay, well, like dating all
• 19:47
  those dud boys, you know, that's when you learn the most. Can you just give me like a code word?
• 19:52
  Like, I just want like three winks, flannel or pineapple or like, you don't, you know, I know we're
• 19:58
  not in a advice giving situation, but just give me a bit of like, be like, rethink it like an eye
• 20:03
  twitch. I could be. I touched that. Don't buy us three. Do buy us four.
• 20:10
  Anyway, that's us. Okay. Bye.
• 20:14
  Thank you so much for listening to the Curve Weekly. Make sure you hit the subscribe button to stay
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  and see you next Monday. Bye. Bye. See you next Tuesday. Well, see you next Tuesday. I mean Monday.