Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | November 9, 2024 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: All systems going clear, you're lifting?
- 0:36Speaker 2: Oh yeah, what's going on? Everybody? Happy Thursday night. Whenever
- 0:40Speaker 2: you're listening to this, we are talking some UFC Fight
- 0:44Speaker 2: Night APEX. Back in the Apex, twelve fights. Twelve fights
- 0:48Speaker 2: isn't bad, but we had thirteen. We were talking a
- 0:50Speaker 2: little pre show Garb Brandt Miles. John's no longer on
- 0:53Speaker 2: the car. Thirteen much better than twelve, but twelve's my
- 0:56Speaker 2: magic number. We'll get into the slate. I think it
- 0:59Speaker 2: is very resting for dfs. We've definitely been spoiled the
- 1:02Speaker 2: past two weeks though, with two five rounders in both
- 1:05Speaker 2: only one this time. But how was it going, big Marley,
- 1:08Speaker 2: how's your day going good?
- 1:10Speaker 3: Yeah, got a good football game on.
- 1:14Speaker 4: I got a decent card here the week before John
- 1:16Speaker 4: Jones fights again, so yeah, hopefully it's a good profitable card.
- 1:21Speaker 3: Yeah, it's definitely a tricky one.
- 1:23Speaker 4: We lost the fight and then now we also have
- 1:26Speaker 4: one of the biggest favorites priced as an underdog.
- 1:28Speaker 3: Too, So I don't know, we'll talk it out.
- 1:31Speaker 4: I think there's a couple of fights that are I
- 1:33Speaker 4: don't really have strong leans on, but I don't know
- 1:35Speaker 4: that they'll be important and then there's a couple of
- 1:37Speaker 4: fights that I want to target heavily. I don't think
- 1:39Speaker 4: we have to be all in on the main event,
- 1:41Speaker 4: so I don't know. Let's let's talk it out. I'm
- 1:43Speaker 4: excited to bounce them off. Some ideas off you one
- 1:47Speaker 4: hundred percent.
- 1:47Speaker 2: So I'll just start right there. Broad slate overview for me.
- 1:51Speaker 2: As you can see, let me refresh quick to get
- 1:54Speaker 2: the Scroggin price or Scrogan price. He's sixty seven hundred.
- 1:58Speaker 2: There we go broad slay over There is only three
- 2:01Speaker 2: fighters priced in the mid tier this week. That is
- 2:03Speaker 2: very very rare. And why that is is the biggest
- 2:06Speaker 2: favorite on the cart and again I wrote this on Tuesday.
- 2:09Speaker 2: Or the closest line fight I should say, says minus
- 2:11Speaker 2: one fifty five here right now, I actually believe it's
- 2:14Speaker 2: minus one seventy five. Is the closest line fight of
- 2:17Speaker 2: all twenty.
- 2:20Speaker 3: You just went on mute.
- 2:23Speaker 2: Oh that's insane. I was on mute the whole time
- 2:26Speaker 2: and I was not.
- 2:27Speaker 3: You just went on mute as you're talking.
- 2:29Speaker 2: Okay, okay, good. So if you notice a lot of
- 2:31Speaker 2: big favorites minus seven fifty, minus five hundred, minus three
- 2:34Speaker 2: to fifty minus three seventy five minus seven fifty, so
- 2:37Speaker 2: many big favorites. So what that means for me is,
- 2:40Speaker 2: obviously you're forced into stars and scrubs for roster construction
- 2:44Speaker 2: because there's only three fighters in the mid tier one
- 2:46Speaker 2: fight and then Celeskido Santos, who is big. Marley mentioned
- 2:50Speaker 2: eight K facing a sixty seven hundred dollars fighter short
- 2:54Speaker 2: notice replacement was supposed to be Nicolas Dalby was actually
- 2:56Speaker 2: really excited for that fight. Dosantos was a slight dog
- 3:00Speaker 2: now biggest favorite on the card at only eight K,
- 3:03Speaker 2: and the fight is expected to finish. We only have
- 3:05Speaker 2: an under two and a half props, so it's gonna
- 3:08Speaker 2: be the Dosantos stars and scrubs, and there's so many
- 3:10Speaker 2: people in the nine k's that are similar when we
- 3:13Speaker 2: go talk about them, I'm gonna be mixing and matching.
- 3:16Speaker 2: I'm naturally gonna be under on protest. I don't like Magny,
- 3:19Speaker 2: so I'm definitely not gonna be on the main event
- 3:22Speaker 2: as heavy this week. But that's my broad slid overviews.
- 3:26Speaker 2: Anything you want to add to that or should we
- 3:27Speaker 2: just start for the first fight?
- 3:29Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you.
- 3:30Speaker 4: Mine already answered one of my questions. So yeah, let's
- 3:32Speaker 4: rock and roll.
- 3:33Speaker 2: Let's do it. I love it. First fight of the
- 3:35Speaker 2: night again, going through the Stone, MMA the Stone. We
- 3:38Speaker 2: have it for all sports, all these sports going on
- 3:40Speaker 2: right now, PGA Swing Season, all of it except MLB Shipination,
- 3:44Speaker 2: dot Com, NBA fifteen, the promo code. No better spots
- 3:47Speaker 2: to be getting the discord. One of the closest line
- 3:50Speaker 2: fights to start it off right away. Tray Shon Gore
- 3:53Speaker 2: taking on Antonio Tricli minus one seventy Trayshon Gore plus
- 3:57Speaker 2: one forty five Tracali minus one seventy for this fight
- 4:00Speaker 2: to finish, or plus one point fifty inside the distance
- 4:03Speaker 2: Traculi plus two twenty five. Interesting spot to start, Yeah,
- 4:09Speaker 2: take it away. I have just one other thing I
- 4:10Speaker 2: want to mention. Finish, finish, finish, finish, finish, finish, finish.
- 4:16Speaker 2: We do have a decent amount of projective finishes on
- 4:18Speaker 2: this card, but it's also summer. I expect to go
- 4:21Speaker 2: to the distance as well, so it makes it I
- 4:23Speaker 2: will say, I'll tip my hand really clear what my
- 4:26Speaker 2: strategy is. I'm targeting fights expected to finish. I think
- 4:29Speaker 2: this is an interesting one to start. How do you
- 4:31Speaker 2: see it?
- 4:33Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so too. I'm cool with both sides
- 4:35Speaker 3: of this fight.
- 4:37Speaker 5: Uh.
- 4:37Speaker 4: Trackily just not a guy we can really trust. He
- 4:40Speaker 4: hasn't want to fight in years. He used to fight
- 4:44Speaker 4: a lot heavier too, been on some special supplements in
- 4:47Speaker 4: the past, so I really don't trust him, especially the
- 4:50Speaker 4: longer any fight goes. At this point, so I think
- 4:53Speaker 4: a decision favors Gore. A striking match probably favors Gore.
- 4:59Speaker 4: I think Gore's or live for a knockout as well.
- 5:01Speaker 4: I think he's got the better hands, more powerful hands.
- 5:04Speaker 4: But if Trickli is able to have success in this fight,
- 5:07Speaker 4: I think it's gonna come through the ground, and more
- 5:10Speaker 4: so early in the fight. I do think he's live
- 5:12Speaker 4: for a first round finish, maybe in early second round finish.
- 5:16Speaker 4: The longer it goes, though, the harder it's gonna be
- 5:18Speaker 4: for him to have a wrestling heavy game plan. So
- 5:22Speaker 4: I think it's just a boom or bust play that
- 5:24Speaker 4: I like to target. On the Trackli side. He might
- 5:26Speaker 4: even be my preferred play for that reason, But just
- 5:29Speaker 4: pick wise, I think I'm gonna go with Gore. I
- 5:30Speaker 4: trust him a little bit more and if he can
- 5:32Speaker 4: stuff the takedowns. I think he either wins a TKO
- 5:36Speaker 4: or he takes two or all three rounds on the
- 5:39Speaker 4: scorecards with the striking match. So I want Gore exposure too,
- 5:43Speaker 4: but I just like other favorites more than him. Where
- 5:46Speaker 4: I think Tricli is one of the highest stealing underdogs
- 5:49Speaker 4: on the card, so probably Trickli is my preferred play.
- 5:53Speaker 2: I like it on. I was trying to think of
- 5:55Speaker 2: something for Dan Robinson, longtime watcher, first time catching a
- 5:58Speaker 2: live Any chance we are giving away a monthly subscription
- 6:01Speaker 2: tonight we weren't, but hey, I'll give you a little proposition.
- 6:05Speaker 2: I'll give you a one in four chance I'm thinking
- 6:09Speaker 2: of Actually, I'll have Big Marley put in our private
- 6:13Speaker 2: chat right here, Big Marley pick one fighter of protests
- 6:16Speaker 2: Neil Magne, d Nisse Gums, Caroly Nikola Kaevich put it
- 6:20Speaker 2: in our private chat. It just completely random, It means
- 6:23Speaker 2: absolutely nothing. I'm giving them a twenty five percent chance
- 6:26Speaker 2: for a free monthly subscription. So you message me in
- 6:29Speaker 2: private chat, Big Marley, so we know it's live. Dan,
- 6:32Speaker 2: you pick one of those four fighters. If you get
- 6:35Speaker 2: it right, you'll get a monthly subscription. We appreciate it.
- 6:38Speaker 2: How about that. I don't really have much more to
- 6:40Speaker 2: add though. Like I my preferred play is Tracoli and
- 6:43Speaker 2: the reason is is I hate underdogs on this card.
- 6:46Speaker 2: Like I'm picking almost all favorites. I'm not stacking any fights.
- 6:49Speaker 2: I do think dogs come through, but these price savings
- 6:52Speaker 2: are really important. One thousand that goes a long way
- 6:55Speaker 2: for me on this card, so in close fights that
- 6:57Speaker 2: I think the dogs live because I am fading of
- 7:00Speaker 2: the bigger dogs. I'm just naturally there my preferred side.
- 7:03Speaker 2: But obviously I like some gore plus one point fifty.
- 7:07Speaker 2: What's up? Ryan Cox? Sorry? I just did it for Dan.
- 7:10Speaker 2: I just did it. I did. I know, I know.
- 7:12Speaker 2: I feel bogus now, but hey, he got me a
- 7:15Speaker 2: long time watch your first time live. He got it
- 7:17Speaker 2: to my heart. So appreciate you, Ryan Cox. All right,
- 7:21Speaker 2: let's see big Marley said protest. He said, let's go
- 7:24Speaker 2: goings pretty much one of the only four I one
- 7:26Speaker 2: to play this week. Ah close, close, but no cigar.
- 7:30Speaker 2: We appreciate you, though, Dan. Maybe I'll throw another one
- 7:34Speaker 2: out during the coming weeks. If you can catch another
- 7:35Speaker 2: one live, come in here. But hey, sometimes you do
- 7:38Speaker 2: always on Sundays we give out monthly subscriptions. Now I
- 7:42Speaker 2: feel bogus, though, but I did give him a chance.
- 7:45Speaker 2: Big Marl, if you can maybe take this up and
- 7:47Speaker 2: maybe we can give them another But all right, let's
- 7:49Speaker 2: get to the next fight on the card. Cortavius Romeo's
- 7:52Speaker 2: taking on Gastam Balanos. Cortavius or this fights minus two
- 7:56Speaker 2: twenty to finish. Cortavius plus one oh five inside the
- 7:59Speaker 2: distance Bonos plus two point fifty five. And my question
- 8:05Speaker 2: to you is is it just so obvious striker versus grappler?
- 8:09Speaker 2: Is U Cortega is gonna wrestle from the get go
- 8:11Speaker 2: because Bonos is a good striker. The odds in this
- 8:14Speaker 2: one very interesting as well. Cortavius opened minus five p
- 8:18Speaker 2: fifty all the way down to minus two twenty in
- 8:20Speaker 2: this one, so line movement on the ball Bonos side.
- 8:24Speaker 2: He is a solid striker. But man, I mean what
- 8:27Speaker 2: Aaron Phillips was taking dude down like he looks like
- 8:30Speaker 2: just a striker And I don't even know to be honest,
- 8:32Speaker 2: is he the better striker? Seems to be. What he
- 8:35Speaker 2: needs to do is keep it on the feet to win.
- 8:37Speaker 2: Though inside the distance prop though, and his price tag
- 8:40Speaker 2: naturally will have me probably more on him as my
- 8:43Speaker 2: preferred play because as we move up the card, I'm
- 8:47Speaker 2: not gonna like many of these dogs. So that's how
- 8:49Speaker 2: I see it. I hope you're on I hope you
- 8:51Speaker 2: can talk me to some Gaston as well, or you
- 8:52Speaker 2: at least like it.
- 8:54Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm cool with it, But there is another one
- 8:56Speaker 4: where I'm just okay with either side of the fight.
- 8:59Speaker 4: I do think that uh Courtavius is gonna be the
- 9:03Speaker 4: better wrestler, better grappler in this one, and then Belanos,
- 9:06Speaker 4: I do think he's probably the better striker, probably has
- 9:09Speaker 4: a little bit more. I mean, they both got power
- 9:11Speaker 4: in their hands, but I would trust Bolanos a little
- 9:14Speaker 4: bit more over the course of fifteen minutes, and I
- 9:16Speaker 4: feel like he would have more round three power.
- 9:21Speaker 3: So I'm cool with either side.
- 9:22Speaker 4: But I do think it's gonna be hard for Bolanos
- 9:24Speaker 4: to score well in a decision when, especially if he's
- 9:28Speaker 4: not going for any takedown. So I think that uh
- 9:31Speaker 4: Cortavius just has more ways to score well. He could
- 9:33Speaker 4: swing some heavies, get a knockout on the feet. He's
- 9:37Speaker 4: also got a submission game too, so he could score
- 9:40Speaker 4: well with that. But I think if anyone's gonna land
- 9:43Speaker 4: three to eight takedowns in this fight, it's gonna be Courtavius.
- 9:46Speaker 4: I don't really think he's got that in him, and
- 9:48Speaker 4: I didn't really think he was a great wrestler from
- 9:51Speaker 4: what I saw, uh, but he is just more willing
- 9:54Speaker 4: to wrestle and he likes to grapple as well. So
- 9:56Speaker 4: I'm gonna pick Cortavius to get the win. But Blanos
- 10:00Speaker 4: other solid underdog who I'll be getting lineups with.
- 10:03Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm glad you mentioned the takedown stuff. You
- 10:05Speaker 2: don't think like three to eight because his subprop open
- 10:08Speaker 2: plus one ninety now plus one sixty five lost twice
- 10:12Speaker 2: by sub, Like that feels like the path. But if
- 10:16Speaker 2: you don't think his wrestling's that great and you can't
- 10:18Speaker 2: and you don't see that much takedown upside, I'm still
- 10:20Speaker 2: gonna play something. The thing is like a first round sub,
- 10:23Speaker 2: what's he in? Round one plus three twenty five open
- 10:28Speaker 2: plus three fifty? Like that's not bad at all. So
- 10:31Speaker 2: you could drop down protest down to town to him
- 10:35Speaker 2: leave a thousand, and that's the way you get different
- 10:37Speaker 2: ETOs Antos chalk stuff like that. He has that type
- 10:40Speaker 2: of upside, But I do need dogs in this car. Now.
- 10:43Speaker 2: What I want to ask you, Big Marley, is I
- 10:45Speaker 2: don't know, like we're gonna get fight by fight, But
- 10:48Speaker 2: I don't love many dogs. I don't know if you do.
- 10:50Speaker 2: And I'm thinking, with so many big favorites and only
- 10:53Speaker 2: twelve fights, what if only one dog wins and it
- 10:56Speaker 2: is Gostam, even if it's a decision and scores sixty
- 10:58Speaker 2: five seventy seventy five. I'm doing that as that could
- 11:02Speaker 2: be enough this week. I'm not really chasing for ceiling
- 11:05Speaker 2: down there. Definitely I'm in the nine k range. Any
- 11:08Speaker 2: thoughts on that?
- 11:11Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, I do think this could be a
- 11:13Speaker 4: card where one dog wins. I think I only picked
- 11:17Speaker 4: I want to say, maybe two on the card. And
- 11:20Speaker 4: it is the odds that talked me into It's not
- 11:22Speaker 4: that I have a great feeling about any underdog on
- 11:24Speaker 4: this card. So yeah, I think just picking any underdog
- 11:27Speaker 4: do you think is live is viable on this card.
- 11:31Speaker 4: But Bolanos also has first round.
- 11:32Speaker 3: Knockout upside too.
- 11:33Speaker 4: I think he's got some heavy hands, don't I just
- 11:36Speaker 4: don't trust Cortavius really so, I don't know. I think
- 11:40Speaker 4: it should be lined a little bit closer than it
- 11:43Speaker 4: is in my opinion. It's just that the knockout's really
- 11:45Speaker 4: the only way for him to have any real ceiling
- 11:47Speaker 4: in my opinion.
- 11:49Speaker 3: But I don't know. He's allowed to win. Sixty five
- 11:51Speaker 3: could maybe? Could it?
- 11:53Speaker 2: Yeah? Again, I don't want sixty five, but I just
- 11:56Speaker 2: want if you tell me if right now anyone a
- 11:58Speaker 2: dog would win, I would be way overwaight to the
- 12:00Speaker 2: field for sure. Yeah you bet, Dan, you bet, Anthony?
- 12:06Speaker 2: What's going on? G Kifer, GK Fighter, the Absolute Man,
- 12:10Speaker 2: winning fifty K last week on his best shutout. You
- 12:13Speaker 2: always always go eleven bucks. I believe it was to five,
- 12:18Speaker 2: like fifty three thousand dollars eleven eleven parlay, I think,
- 12:24Speaker 2: or something. Yeah, shout out, shout out. GK Fighter, the
- 12:27Speaker 2: Absolute Man. Yeah, this next one. I'm glad these are
- 12:31Speaker 2: back to back because it's a similar I guess we're
- 12:35Speaker 2: just talking about like dogs not having too much upside.
- 12:37Speaker 2: I don't think, but I'll take any win, and that's
- 12:39Speaker 2: how I see this fight. Melissa Mallins taking on Claudia Segula. Yeah,
- 12:45Speaker 2: bet or fight odds on bet online has this these
- 12:49Speaker 2: odds weird. This says minus two sixty plus two to
- 12:52Speaker 2: fifteen plus one sixty for this fight to finish Mullins
- 12:56Speaker 2: plus two seventy five inside the distance Tegula plus six
- 13:00Speaker 2: six hundred. Are you laughing? I might be, but our
- 13:03Speaker 2: eight leg TD parlay, Yeah, that's awesome. So I don't
- 13:09Speaker 2: think obviously this fight's favored to go the distance. But
- 13:12Speaker 2: we're gonna have very low ownership on this fight. Let
- 13:14Speaker 2: let me let's look fifteen percent on the mall inside,
- 13:17Speaker 2: which is the lowest, one of the lowest on the car,
- 13:20Speaker 2: definitely lowest up top and Sigula we have pretty low
- 13:24Speaker 2: owned as well. On a card that I'm gonna be
- 13:27Speaker 2: eating chalk and Dosanto's that I know I'm gonna be
- 13:30Speaker 2: mixing in the Monster of Duels the Gillian robertson some
- 13:35Speaker 2: protests like Ritter, I'm gonna eat chalk on this card.
- 13:39Speaker 2: I'm not gonna play Neil Magni. I'm not gonna play Scrogan,
- 13:42Speaker 2: even though wow, we have Neil Magnie pretty high. Anyway,
- 13:45Speaker 2: long story shorts, I need to get different in some spots.
- 13:48Speaker 2: I'm gonna play some moments surely game theory wise, I
- 13:52Speaker 2: think it's a card I need to get different in
- 13:54Speaker 2: Chalky teams. But plus two sixty inside the distance isn't terrible.
- 13:58Speaker 2: Can you talk me into like, do you think think
- 14:00Speaker 2: either these guys or girls have upside or it's strictly
- 14:03Speaker 2: just I think I just answered my question. You have
- 14:06Speaker 2: as a two star, so you really don't like it,
- 14:08Speaker 2: But I'm playing it for game theory ownership, That's what
- 14:10Speaker 2: I'll say. It's probably the lowest owned fight on the car.
- 14:13Speaker 2: What are your thoughts?
- 14:15Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I definitely don't like it overall, but
- 14:17Speaker 4: I'm gonna leave it in my pool as a way
- 14:19Speaker 4: just to get different.
- 14:20Speaker 3: I think Mullins does have the upside.
- 14:23Speaker 4: If she's able to wrestle for three rounds, she could
- 14:25Speaker 4: pay off an eighty eight hundred dollars price tag. If
- 14:28Speaker 4: it's a three round striking match, neither one of them
- 14:31Speaker 4: has any upside, But I do think Sigoola is live
- 14:34Speaker 4: in that case.
- 14:35Speaker 3: She's younger.
- 14:36Speaker 4: I think she's faster as well. I could really see
- 14:38Speaker 4: the striking being close. I think Mullins is the better,
- 14:41Speaker 4: more crisp striker, but Sigoola could win on volume alone.
- 14:45Speaker 4: Just by being the faster striker. So I think Sigoola
- 14:50Speaker 4: is kind of more a play for me like Belanos
- 14:52Speaker 4: is a play for you. I think Saigoula is live
- 14:54Speaker 4: to get a win, but maybe point win. Yeah, so
- 14:58Speaker 4: it's like, give me any from her and I'm okay
- 15:01Speaker 4: with it. Whereas Mullins, I'm really not trying to pay
- 15:04Speaker 4: eighty eight hundred dollars. But if the rest of my
- 15:07Speaker 4: lineup is chalky, then screws throwing Mullins, she's my way
- 15:10Speaker 4: to get different.
- 15:12Speaker 3: Hopefully it won't be too duped.
- 15:13Speaker 4: But yeah, this is one where I would have put
- 15:15Speaker 4: it as a one star, but I could make a
- 15:18Speaker 4: case for both of them being in the optimal lineup,
- 15:20Speaker 4: So I threw it at two stars.
- 15:21Speaker 3: I doubt I x them out.
- 15:23Speaker 4: But if I was gonna make like ten lineups and
- 15:25Speaker 4: I'm making them on the ship to miser, should go
- 15:27Speaker 4: ahead and ext this fight out, look for better ways
- 15:29Speaker 4: have more of a sweat with like real sweat equity instead.
- 15:34Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it really depends like your ultimate goal. Like
- 15:36Speaker 2: I'm playing it in chockey lineups because I want to
- 15:39Speaker 2: try and dupe with as less as less people as possible.
- 15:42Speaker 2: But if you're only making a couple of lineups, and
- 15:44Speaker 2: you just want more chance of sweat equity, like Big
- 15:46Speaker 2: Marley saying this fight more than likely bus early. That's
- 15:50Speaker 2: why the ownership's low. So but yeah, I'm playing Sagula
- 15:54Speaker 2: Banos TRICALI like I like. Earlier in the card, I
- 15:57Speaker 2: lean the dogs, and then later in card I lean
- 16:00Speaker 2: the favorites. That's just how it came to me. So
- 16:04Speaker 2: we'll keep it rolling. Eight D what's going on. I
- 16:07Speaker 2: hope you're doing well. Let's keep it rolling to pretty
- 16:10Speaker 2: solid real life fight interesting for dfs again, not when
- 16:13Speaker 2: you have ranked really high. As you can see on
- 16:15Speaker 2: the stone the Mount black Year taken on Cody Stainman
- 16:18Speaker 2: minus two to sixty. Blacks Year plus two twenty is
- 16:21Speaker 2: Stayman plus two to fifty. For this fight to finish,
- 16:24Speaker 2: we have black Year plus two eighty five inside the
- 16:27Speaker 2: distance Staymen plus nine hundred. Black Year looks pretty low
- 16:32Speaker 2: owned in the upper tier and when you look at
- 16:34Speaker 2: it plus two eighty five inside the distance isn't bad
- 16:37Speaker 2: my question to you, So we look ownerships low on
- 16:40Speaker 2: this fight. It's one of the most likely to go
- 16:42Speaker 2: the distance on the card. But when you go to
- 16:44Speaker 2: the stone. You see both average over two takedowns per
- 16:47Speaker 2: fifteen minutes, both over four significant strikes. Black year four
- 16:53Speaker 2: inch heid advantage, eight inch reach advantage. Pretty interesting right there.
- 16:57Speaker 2: So can you talk yourself into any of this fight
- 17:00Speaker 2: at pretty low ownership? And then I guess do you
- 17:03Speaker 2: like this fight or the last fight more? If you
- 17:04Speaker 2: had to pick?
- 17:07Speaker 4: Oh, man, I guess this fight because they are both
- 17:15Speaker 4: just better wrestlers than the other fight. Uh Stamen's pretty
- 17:19Speaker 4: solid wrestler. He just doesn't wrestle enough anymore that I
- 17:23Speaker 4: think he has like a type of ceiling that I
- 17:25Speaker 4: thought he used to have anyways.
- 17:27Speaker 3: And then.
- 17:29Speaker 4: And then I also don't think that like Black Cheer
- 17:32Speaker 4: is a guy you really want to wrestle against. Black
- 17:34Speaker 4: Cheer is the better grappler in this one. He's more
- 17:36Speaker 4: dangerous on the ground. So I feel like this could
- 17:39Speaker 4: be one where the wrestling cancels out we get a
- 17:41Speaker 4: fifteen minute striking match. I favor Black Cheer in that
- 17:46Speaker 4: as well, and that's kind of why I put it
- 17:48Speaker 4: as a two star. But like at their best, then
- 17:51Speaker 4: sure that Black Cheer is a good enough wrestling grappler.
- 17:54Speaker 4: This could be a four star fight if I knew
- 17:56Speaker 4: he was gonna go out there with a wrestling based
- 17:59Speaker 4: approach to this fight. I just don't know that that's
- 18:01Speaker 4: gonna be the case. I also think Stamen's hard to
- 18:03Speaker 4: take down. It's not gonna be real easy for Black
- 18:06Speaker 4: Cheer to get it there when he wants to. It's
- 18:09Speaker 4: just that when he gets the fight to the ground,
- 18:11Speaker 4: I really like his grappling instead. He's just not a
- 18:13Speaker 4: chain wrestler. He's not a guy who I think is
- 18:15Speaker 4: gonna ever get ten takedowns in a fight. It's just
- 18:18Speaker 4: that only it could only take one for him and
- 18:20Speaker 4: then he locks up a submission. So Black Cheer is
- 18:23Speaker 4: my preferred play probably, but it's it's another one where
- 18:28Speaker 4: it's like, all right, if I need an underdog, we
- 18:29Speaker 4: got Stamen. He's only seventy three hundred dollars.
- 18:31Speaker 3: He's cheap.
- 18:32Speaker 4: He could go out there get four or five takedowns
- 18:34Speaker 4: on this fight if he really wanted to. Uh So, yeah,
- 18:37Speaker 4: he's in play for me too. Haven't really loved any
- 18:39Speaker 4: of these underdogs, and that's kind of like the rest
- 18:42Speaker 4: of the card. It's gonna be similar to that. So
- 18:44Speaker 4: I have no strong underdog feelings. I'm just gonna be
- 18:47Speaker 4: mixing them all into lineup, seeing what fits. I'll go
- 18:51Speaker 4: more core heavy with the favorites and then just hope
- 18:54Speaker 4: to toss in the right underdogs to get lucky.
- 18:57Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, Like the more we talk through this car,
- 19:00Speaker 2: the more I'm liking it for DFS. And again, like
- 19:03Speaker 2: I knew it would be pretty spread out. And but
- 19:07Speaker 2: your ownership makes like the bottom tier we have nobody
- 19:10Speaker 2: so obviously Jeleski's so popular, we have at like seventy
- 19:13Speaker 2: percent below him pricing wise, though, we have nobody above
- 19:17Speaker 2: twenty five percent. That is awesome. Like a couple fighters
- 19:21Speaker 2: up top, we're going to get to ownership. Hoo condens
- 19:23Speaker 2: around prats Gillian robertson Montour a little bit. You know,
- 19:27Speaker 2: the pivots up top, but all these dogs, like if
- 19:30Speaker 2: you have strong leans on him, it's really easy to
- 19:32Speaker 2: get overweight. I just couldn't agree, and with more I like,
- 19:35Speaker 2: I couldn't have said it any better. Everything you said
- 19:37Speaker 2: about that fight, I agree hundred percent. My preferred place
- 19:40Speaker 2: Black Year, because you I want I think he's gonna win.
- 19:44Speaker 2: I don't think Stateman, who hasn't wrestled really lately, is
- 19:47Speaker 2: gonna want to wrestle Black Year, or if he does,
- 19:49Speaker 2: I think he can get caught. Stateman's best path is
- 19:52Speaker 2: just striking, but I think Black Cheer's probably better there.
- 19:55Speaker 2: And Black Year why I like it more is he
- 19:58Speaker 2: can't get one take th and like you said, is
- 19:59Speaker 2: grad pling is definitely better. First round boom right there
- 20:03Speaker 2: allows you to save money easier. So I'm picking Black Cheer.
- 20:06Speaker 2: I'm gonna play something Stamen in my twenty entry, but
- 20:11Speaker 2: I do prefer the other dogs that we talked about
- 20:13Speaker 2: below because I think they're a little more alive at
- 20:16Speaker 2: the end of the day. So that's how I see it.
- 20:18Speaker 2: Agree with pretty much everything you said. We will keep
- 20:21Speaker 2: it rolling. Next fight, the only fight that's priced in
- 20:24Speaker 2: the mid tier Charles Radkey taking on Matthew Semlsberger minus
- 20:28Speaker 2: one seventy Radkey plus one forty five is Samalsburger minus
- 20:32Speaker 2: one thirty five For this fight to finish, both rag
- 20:34Speaker 2: Key and Samalsburger plus two fifteen inside the distance. So
- 20:38Speaker 2: again I've been saying this most weeks, but if you're new, reminder,
- 20:43Speaker 2: I write these type these out on Wednesday usually, so
- 20:46Speaker 2: it is minus one fifty five one thirty five. Now
- 20:48Speaker 2: you see minus one seventy plus one forty five, so
- 20:51Speaker 2: you see some line movement the past couple of days
- 20:54Speaker 2: or just from yesterday on the Radkey side. Another thing
- 20:58Speaker 2: that stands out on the stone advantage for Semulsberger reach
- 21:02Speaker 2: advantage four inches and three inches that is, but tail
- 21:05Speaker 2: the tape isn't great, not the most volume, not much
- 21:09Speaker 2: wrestling upside, but it is expected to finish Big Marley.
- 21:13Speaker 2: So all of that, there was a lot of pros
- 21:15Speaker 2: and cons, and you have it ranked to three. So
- 21:17Speaker 2: I think that all makes a lot of sense.
- 21:20Speaker 3: Yeah, I really don't get the Radkey line movement in
- 21:24Speaker 3: this one. To be honest with you, I don't know
- 21:26Speaker 3: what like.
- 21:28Speaker 4: Like where he's for sure better than Semosburger to give
- 21:32Speaker 4: him like a over a sixty two chance of winning
- 21:35Speaker 4: this fight. I feel like everything's kind of a toss up. Semosburger,
- 21:39Speaker 4: in my opinion, is the more dangerous striker early. Semmelsburger
- 21:44Speaker 4: has ten knockdowns in the UFC in nine fights. I
- 21:48Speaker 4: also think that Semlsburger could be the better wrestler in
- 21:51Speaker 4: this one. Semmelsburger also has more UFC experience against the
- 21:55Speaker 4: better competition too, so I like Seams a little bit
- 22:00Speaker 4: at plus one thirty five, so I'm probably gonna end
- 22:03Speaker 4: up on him as a play. He is my favorite underdog,
- 22:10Speaker 4: like with win equity anyways, but I don't know how
- 22:13Speaker 4: high his ceiling is. If he doesn't get a knockout.
- 22:15Speaker 4: It's another one where I could see it being a
- 22:17Speaker 4: fifteen minute striking match. Semlsburger wins with sixty to sixty
- 22:21Speaker 4: five points something like that, but he does have first
- 22:24Speaker 4: round knockout upside. He's got one hundred and ten hundred
- 22:27Speaker 4: and twenty point upside, so I'll be heavy on him.
- 22:31Speaker 4: I'm guessing he'll be one of my highest olen underdogs
- 22:34Speaker 4: on the card. And then Radkey, I don't really want
- 22:38Speaker 4: too much of him at eighty five hundred. I think
- 22:40Speaker 4: if I get to him, it's more just as a
- 22:41Speaker 4: hedge because I have too much Semlsburger. So maybe I'll
- 22:44Speaker 4: get like ten percent possibly fifteen percent Radkey, but I'll
- 22:49Speaker 4: purposely be under the field to him over the field
- 22:52Speaker 4: on Semalsburger.
- 22:54Speaker 2: I love it because of the eight hundred dollars savings.
- 22:56Speaker 2: He was just naturally my preferred play. Again, I'm leading
- 22:59Speaker 2: that in fights that I think the dogs live, so
- 23:02Speaker 2: I absolutely love it. One thing I wanted to point
- 23:04Speaker 2: out and then ask you, though you mentioned the wrestling,
- 23:07Speaker 2: like do you think there's outcomes? I mean, Semmlsberger has
- 23:11Speaker 2: allowed multiple takedowns like big numbers seven to four, like
- 23:15Speaker 2: Wells Parsons probably better wrestlers than Raky. Do you think
- 23:18Speaker 2: that's possible? And the reason I asked what stands out
- 23:21Speaker 2: with Radky opened by submission plus eight to fifty now
- 23:24Speaker 2: down to plus five to fifty. That's a pretty decent
- 23:27Speaker 2: chunk of line movements. I do like looking at submission
- 23:30Speaker 2: props sometimes to see does books think they have a
- 23:34Speaker 2: lot of wrestling or they obviously correlate wrestling. Submissions and
- 23:37Speaker 2: submission props correlate to an extent. I haven't checked Underdog
- 23:42Speaker 2: or anything to see props, but any like three plus
- 23:44Speaker 2: four plus take them an upset on the Raky side
- 23:47Speaker 2: and he dominates.
- 23:47Speaker 3: Wrestling or no, I'd be surprised.
- 23:50Speaker 4: I mean, he had one official takedown against Blood Diamond, yeah.
- 23:54Speaker 2: But yeah, nine minutes of control. But I don't know
- 23:56Speaker 2: how much was it against defense or.
- 23:57Speaker 4: Not, But I would think that the striking would have
- 23:59Speaker 4: to be really going bad for him in the first
- 24:01Speaker 4: round and then he just completely changes his game plan
- 24:04Speaker 4: to a wrestling heavy approach for him to have that
- 24:06Speaker 4: kind of upside. But no, I don't I wouldn't think.
- 24:10Speaker 4: I don't know that he would even have a two
- 24:12Speaker 4: takedown prop. I feel like it'd be maybe one and
- 24:15Speaker 4: a half or one.
- 24:17Speaker 2: I think you're probably right for sure. Let's keep it
- 24:19Speaker 2: going to the next fight on the card, and this
- 24:21Speaker 2: is one of two fights that we have a five
- 24:24Speaker 2: star makes a lot of sense to look at the
- 24:26Speaker 2: stone minus six hundred to finish. Second most likely Monsieur
- 24:30Speaker 2: Abdul elite taking on Dusco Tadorovich our minus four fifty
- 24:35Speaker 2: seven Monsieur plus three fifty seven to Dorovich minus five
- 24:39Speaker 2: hundred for this fight to finish Abdul minus two forty
- 24:42Speaker 2: inside the distance, Todorovich plus four hundred round one props
- 24:47Speaker 2: in this fight, plus one hundred for abduel in round one,
- 24:51Speaker 2: and then Todorovitch plus one thousand. I mean, obviously Abdul's
- 24:55Speaker 2: are great play hey expected to finish plus one hundred
- 24:59Speaker 2: and round one. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure
- 25:02Speaker 2: that one out. The interesting sides, obviously Tadorovich, because with
- 25:06Speaker 2: this fight, so heavily to finish. Monser making his UFC debut,
- 25:10Speaker 2: which is why you don't see or Yeah, this was
- 25:13Speaker 2: a Contender series fight, so I did we do add that?
- 25:15Speaker 2: But making his UFC debut has never been to a
- 25:20Speaker 2: third round, So if he slows, Dusco has UFC experience,
- 25:25Speaker 2: he is coming off a brutal in a knee injury.
- 25:28Speaker 2: In that Leroy duncan fight. But man, you get a
- 25:30Speaker 2: lot of leverage at low ownership in a fight expected
- 25:33Speaker 2: to finish. I'm obviously gonna be playing some duce go
- 25:36Speaker 2: for those reasons. But I will say, you see this
- 25:39Speaker 2: line minus three sixty five three hundred yesterday and what
- 25:42Speaker 2: did I just read off? Minus four fifty seven plus
- 25:45Speaker 2: three fifty seven. He took almost a dollar overnight, So
- 25:49Speaker 2: that definitely does have me leaning Monsieur side, even though
- 25:53Speaker 2: the price difference, I think he probably wins probably round one.
- 25:56Speaker 2: What do you see?
- 25:58Speaker 3: Yeah, this maleag like dude is violent, man, he is.
- 26:02Speaker 3: He is dangerous.
- 26:03Speaker 4: He's got solid wrestling early, he's got mean ground and pound.
- 26:07Speaker 4: He throws heavy strikes on the feet, so he's got
- 26:11Speaker 4: a big ceiling and it could come with a takedown.
- 26:15Speaker 4: And then ground and pound finish. It could come in
- 26:17Speaker 4: the first one minute with a knockout on the feet.
- 26:21Speaker 4: I think he has good enough wrestling to score well
- 26:24Speaker 4: in the decision. I don't know that he has good
- 26:26Speaker 4: enough cardio to wrestle and score well in the decision, though,
- 26:31Speaker 4: And I think that if what's this dude's name, Tadorovich,
- 26:38Speaker 4: if he can weather an early storm and like a
- 26:41Speaker 4: real storm and the entire Malik out, I think Tadorovich's
- 26:44Speaker 4: life to get a late second or a third round finish.
- 26:48Speaker 4: He could even start to wrestle ate himself if he
- 26:50Speaker 4: wanted to. So yeah, I'm gonna be heavy on this
- 26:52Speaker 4: fight in general. I was kind of thinking, like, maybe
- 26:55Speaker 4: give me sixty percent Malik twenty twenty five sent to Dorovich,
- 27:01Speaker 4: and that probably put me overweight to both sides of
- 27:03Speaker 4: this fight. That's the way I want to go about it.
- 27:06Speaker 4: I just want to be heavy on the fight as
- 27:08Speaker 4: a whole. Malik is my preferred play. I think he
- 27:10Speaker 4: probably finishes in the first round, but he's also going
- 27:14Speaker 4: to be super chalky too, So let me get a
- 27:16Speaker 4: bunch of him. I'll hedge with to Dorovic and then
- 27:19Speaker 4: let me get around twenty percent fifteen percent of lineups,
- 27:22Speaker 4: just in case it's something like Malik dominates round one,
- 27:26Speaker 4: Tadorovic wins round two and rounds three mostly on the feet,
- 27:30Speaker 4: and nobody scores. Well, there's just so many ways I
- 27:32Speaker 4: feel like this fight can go scoring wise, But Malik
- 27:36Speaker 4: is very dangerous early, and I think this is a
- 27:38Speaker 4: fight that the UFC probably wants him to win.
- 27:41Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with everything you said. I think this
- 27:43Speaker 2: fight's more than likely optimal. Why I'm not making a
- 27:46Speaker 2: rule to go one hundred percent personally is the price.
- 27:49Speaker 2: Just say he puts up one oh six one o
- 27:52Speaker 2: six is great. Why can't Robertson score one ten? So
- 27:56Speaker 2: Pie score one ten, probably score one ten, Rider one ten. Like,
- 28:00Speaker 2: I think there's the I think the nine k range
- 28:02Speaker 2: is absolutely loaded, where even one oh six and ninety
- 28:05Speaker 2: three hundred isn't guaranteed. And that's why I'm not gonna
- 28:09Speaker 2: go one hundred percent on any fight on this card.
- 28:11Speaker 2: If I did, we'll get right into it, perfect segue.
- 28:14Speaker 2: It would be this fight, and it would be all
- 28:16Speaker 2: in on this guy. Obviously, Barry Chalk, you'd give him
- 28:19Speaker 2: that seventy percent right now, sixty nine to be exact
- 28:22Speaker 2: Czeleskido Santos taking on Zachary Scrogan minus seven fifty do
- 28:28Speaker 2: Santos plus five hundred Scrogan only, Prop, I see right
- 28:32Speaker 2: now under two and a half is minus one seventy.
- 28:35Speaker 2: So I expect Zeleskido Santos have a pretty nice inside
- 28:39Speaker 2: the distance, Prop, I mean, big Marle. I guess the
- 28:42Speaker 2: only thing to ask is are you gonna play any Scrogan?
- 28:45Speaker 2: Because we know he's the Czeleski's the best play in
- 28:47Speaker 2: the slate? I guess, are you gonna lock him? Then
- 28:50Speaker 2: that would answer the next question if you say yes,
- 28:52Speaker 2: five star, one star? What is interesting? Though he is undefeated,
- 28:57Speaker 2: he's fought cans, but hey, four inches in height, one
- 29:00Speaker 2: inches reach, he will be bigger. But it's a tall,
- 29:03Speaker 2: tall task. How do you see it?
- 29:06Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll leave him in my pool, but that's that's
- 29:11Speaker 3: more like an MMM pool.
- 29:12Speaker 4: If I'm making, you know, five to ten lineups by hand,
- 29:16Speaker 4: he's not someone I'm clicking on, And then I probably
- 29:19Speaker 4: would go all in on Dosanto's in that scenario, just
- 29:23Speaker 4: with a limited number of lineups. Let's just go all
- 29:26Speaker 4: in because I do expect him just to be better everywhere.
- 29:29Speaker 4: I wasn't really impressed with Scraggin. Once he got into
- 29:33Speaker 4: top control, he looked pretty good. But he's just fighting
- 29:37Speaker 4: bums and I just don't know that he's even gonna
- 29:39Speaker 4: have that edge in this fight. I feel like Dosantos
- 29:41Speaker 4: is gonna be the better wrestler, better grappler, and.
- 29:44Speaker 2: Then then while Satan Deni could be handling Zelaski on
- 29:49Speaker 2: short notice, Like it's hard to see scrog And going
- 29:51Speaker 2: in there and bully.
- 29:53Speaker 4: That's true, And yeah, I think Dosantos has a big
- 29:57Speaker 4: striking edge in this one. I thought h Scraggin's defense
- 30:02Speaker 4: was terrible. His offense wasn't really good either, So I
- 30:05Speaker 4: just think easy ds it's all him in this one.
- 30:08Speaker 4: I want to be heavy on him, but I just
- 30:11Speaker 4: worry about, like about his game plan. If he's not
- 30:14Speaker 4: going to wrestle and he doesn't get a knockout, he's
- 30:16Speaker 4: probably not going to be crazy enough on the feet.
- 30:18Speaker 3: I don't know. Yeah, I mean, I agree, I can
- 30:21Speaker 3: bring that is nothing to me fight. Maybe he will
- 30:23Speaker 3: be a little bit extra crazy on the feet with
- 30:25Speaker 3: short notice.
- 30:26Speaker 2: So I'm glad you said no. I'm glad you said
- 30:30Speaker 2: that you talked me out of it, because if it's
- 30:32Speaker 2: no wrestling and it's just on the feet, like going
- 30:35Speaker 2: all he's seventy percent, Like, I'm fine playing. I know
- 30:39Speaker 2: sometimes people talk about it. I don't want to be
- 30:41Speaker 2: even with the field. I want to make a stand.
- 30:43Speaker 2: I'm fine being even with the field, Tambo says, and
- 30:45Speaker 2: pretty well. I think he expects to build better lineups
- 30:49Speaker 2: with that person than the field, so naturally you're more
- 30:52Speaker 2: overweight to good lineups. I approach it the same way.
- 30:55Speaker 2: I think that's good. So if I'm eighty percent fine,
- 30:59Speaker 2: If I'm ninety percent fine, If I'm one hundred percent,
- 31:01Speaker 2: I like everything fine. But if I'm seventy percent also
- 31:04Speaker 2: with thirty percent fight fades. I think you made it
- 31:07Speaker 2: sound like that very well as possible. Under two and
- 31:10Speaker 2: happy and minus one seventy five isn't like crazy crazy.
- 31:13Speaker 2: So yeah, I think I wouldn't blame anyone for going
- 31:17Speaker 2: all in. I honestly would rather go all in than
- 31:19Speaker 2: play scroggin. But I think I'm just gonna go like
- 31:24Speaker 2: eighty percent or whatever. I get him, then fade the
- 31:27Speaker 2: other part, and That's how I'll go about this fight.
- 31:29Speaker 4: Any final thoughts, Yeah, I don't know what I'm gonna
- 31:33Speaker 4: do ownership wise, But I agree with that. If I
- 31:37Speaker 4: had one hundred, i'd be fine with that. If this
- 31:40Speaker 4: was a different card and I liked other underdogs more,
- 31:42Speaker 4: I'd be fine with fifty percent. But that's just not
- 31:45Speaker 4: the case on this card. I need, I need him
- 31:47Speaker 4: in my lineups because I just don't like the underdogs.
- 31:49Speaker 4: So like, let me mix him in with another one
- 31:52Speaker 4: or maybe two underdogs on each lineup, and that's how
- 31:55Speaker 4: most of my lineup so will look this week for sure.
- 31:59Speaker 2: Yeah, looking at like Semmelsberger is the obvious pivot, Like
- 32:03Speaker 2: there's not really many mid tier fights. He saved three hundred.
- 32:06Speaker 2: Any team you bill and you go Semmelsberger, No Dos Santos,
- 32:09Speaker 2: you can definitely eat plenty of chalk thinking out loud
- 32:12Speaker 2: stuff like that. Obviously. I have plenty of lineups with
- 32:15Speaker 2: them together as two of the best dogs on the card.
- 32:17Speaker 2: Dogs price like that on the card. Yeah, I mean,
- 32:21Speaker 2: let's get to another great fight. You had back to
- 32:23Speaker 2: back five stars, now what I love to see, And
- 32:25Speaker 2: I could not agree more. Four star, four star, four star,
- 32:29Speaker 2: four star, A two right here. Absolutely agree. You also
- 32:33Speaker 2: look at though, is interesting, big favorite, big favorite, big favorite,
- 32:37Speaker 2: big favorite, big favorite. This is what I talked about
- 32:41Speaker 2: the story of the slates. Big favorites. The ones at
- 32:43Speaker 2: least down here are a little lower in odds, and
- 32:47Speaker 2: I'll be targeting that and the later the fight. I
- 32:49Speaker 2: like a lot of the favorites, so I don't like
- 32:51Speaker 2: too many dogs, So I tip my hand. I'm gonna help.
- 32:54Speaker 2: Have you try and help me. Which ones of these
- 32:57Speaker 2: dogs are your favorite? Though, doesn't look like one of
- 33:00Speaker 2: Pinero is, And I agree, Jillian Robertson's a big favorite.
- 33:03Speaker 2: Minus three seventy five, Pinero plus three ten, minus two
- 33:07Speaker 2: twenty five for this fight to finish, Robertson minus one
- 33:10Speaker 2: seventy five inside the distance, Pinero plus seven hundred. Man,
- 33:15Speaker 2: do you love to see that? Let's see what this.
- 33:18Speaker 2: It was minus one eighty yesterday inside the distance this
- 33:22Speaker 2: fight now it's minus two twenty five. Robertson was minus
- 33:26Speaker 2: one thirty five and open now minus won seventy five
- 33:29Speaker 2: inside the distance. Make it even better. She also averages
- 33:32Speaker 2: two point four eight takedowns per fifteen minutes, has one
- 33:36Speaker 2: majority of her fights by submission. It all looks pretty good.
- 33:40Speaker 5: Man.
- 33:40Speaker 2: We got steam. We have a wrestler, A big favorites,
- 33:44Speaker 2: one of the best plays on the card. But I
- 33:46Speaker 2: mean we talked about it. Look at all these people
- 33:48Speaker 2: in the nine, k's good luck figuring out which one
- 33:51Speaker 2: I will be mixing the match in. Robertson, I think
- 33:54Speaker 2: very well might be my favorite, though, how do you
- 33:56Speaker 2: see this one?
- 33:59Speaker 4: Yeah, Robertson, give me all the Robertson. I Panero is
- 34:03Speaker 4: a better striker. If she can stuff takedowns, then maybe
- 34:07Speaker 4: she has a chance in this one.
- 34:08Speaker 3: But Robertson's just.
- 34:11Speaker 4: Too good at knowing where she's good, so she even
- 34:15Speaker 4: if the first few takedowns don't happen, She's gonna keep
- 34:19Speaker 4: going for him. And once she gets the fight to
- 34:20Speaker 4: the ground, Panero's not gonna be able to do a
- 34:22Speaker 4: lot about it. And she's also gonna be the one
- 34:26Speaker 4: struggling with Cardio. She'll be freaking out on the ground
- 34:29Speaker 4: trying to get back to her feet, and if she
- 34:30Speaker 4: can't do it, she's gonna.
- 34:31Speaker 3: Slow down more and more. And Robertson's not gonna slow down.
- 34:34Speaker 3: Robertson's gonna be.
- 34:35Speaker 4: There for three rounds heavy on top, or she's gonna
- 34:38Speaker 4: get a submission. So yeah, I want a bunch of Robertson.
- 34:41Speaker 4: She's one of my favorite plays on the card. Panero
- 34:45Speaker 4: probably a full pass for me. I doubt I get there.
- 34:48Speaker 4: If I make one hundred and fifty lineups, I'd be
- 34:50Speaker 4: fine with, you know, in between five and ten percent,
- 34:53Speaker 4: but I wouldn't go over ten percent, and I'd be
- 34:55Speaker 4: fine fading her with one hundred and fifty two.
- 34:58Speaker 2: I love it. We couldn't agree more. He's not gonna
- 35:00Speaker 2: make my twenty entry pool one point fifty. Yeah, I'd
- 35:03Speaker 2: probably have a couple of sprinkles, but most play twenty
- 35:06Speaker 2: teams or less. That's how I designed the Slave Plan. Again,
- 35:09Speaker 2: I break down all the fights in the Slave Plan.
- 35:11Speaker 2: The tags are there, explain it. Big Barley has hit
- 35:14Speaker 2: all of his thoughts per fight and predictions in the
- 35:17Speaker 2: fight rankings. You get the sneak peek at his stats
- 35:20Speaker 2: right here. But college football going on, No better team
- 35:23Speaker 2: in the business, NFL, PGA swing season going on. NBA,
- 35:26Speaker 2: of course, shout out Rio and the team always grinded.
- 35:29Speaker 2: No better spot to be NBA fifteenth is still available.
- 35:33Speaker 2: All you got to do, I'll show you actually right
- 35:35Speaker 2: now shipinnation dot Com. You'll get to this homepage. This
- 35:38Speaker 2: is our best deal per month. All access also includes
- 35:41Speaker 2: the discord. All you gotta do is click otherwise. Join
- 35:44Speaker 2: the nation right here gets you if you want to
- 35:46Speaker 2: check out weekly, monthly, six month, per sport projections, ownership,
- 35:50Speaker 2: whatever you want, multiple options. Let's go back to MMA.
- 35:54Speaker 2: Let's go back to the stone again. All content will
- 35:58Speaker 2: be up tomorrow. Keep roll into the next fight. A
- 36:01Speaker 2: very similar fight to the last fight in my opinion,
- 36:03Speaker 2: another pretty good one. Renee de Ridder taken on Gerald
- 36:07Speaker 2: Meershart minus three hundred. Ridder plus two fifty is Mearshark
- 36:11Speaker 2: minus one sixty five for this fight. To finish the
- 36:14Speaker 2: Ridder plus one ten inside the distance Mearshark plus three
- 36:18Speaker 2: point fifty taken away. What do you see? Sorry, I
- 36:22Speaker 2: caught you chewing.
- 36:23Speaker 3: Yeah, this Ritter guy who was like a double champ
- 36:27Speaker 3: with one championship or something like that. So when I
- 36:31Speaker 3: went into this, I was expecting him to kind.
- 36:34Speaker 4: Of be like a world beater, and I did. I
- 36:38Speaker 4: think I was the most impressed with him, you know,
- 36:41Speaker 4: on the ground. I think his grappling was pretty good.
- 36:43Speaker 4: He could be dominating top control in some fights, but
- 36:46Speaker 4: he was getting taken down in other fights. Uh, he
- 36:49Speaker 4: is twelve and zero to the submission, where uh Meershar
- 36:54Speaker 4: has like twenty plus subs, but he's been submitted eight times,
- 36:57Speaker 4: I believe, So that's not great.
- 37:00Speaker 3: The striking.
- 37:01Speaker 4: I've heard people say that Rider's gonna have a huge
- 37:03Speaker 4: striking advantage in this fight. I don't know that I
- 37:06Speaker 4: saw that from the fights that I watched of him.
- 37:09Speaker 4: I was not really impressed with his striking, and I
- 37:11Speaker 4: feel like Meershark can keep this fight close on the feet.
- 37:15Speaker 4: Meershark's danger on the ground too. He could give him
- 37:17Speaker 4: the first submission loss of his career. And if it's
- 37:21Speaker 4: a fifteen minute back and forth fight, I think Myershard
- 37:25Speaker 4: is super alive in that. So I would think that
- 37:27Speaker 4: the line should be closer than it is, and either
- 37:32Speaker 4: one of them could have a lot of grappling success
- 37:34Speaker 4: success on this one, So I'm going to target the
- 37:36Speaker 4: fight fairly heavily. It could also kind of cancel out
- 37:39Speaker 4: and we get a slow paced striking match that would
- 37:41Speaker 4: really suck. I don't think either one of them are
- 37:43Speaker 4: that dangerous on the feet, but I think the sub
- 37:47Speaker 4: on either side could come, so I'll say that, actually
- 37:53Speaker 4: I don't know, I don't really have a preferred.
- 37:54Speaker 3: Play in this one.
- 37:55Speaker 4: If I'm floating around the nine K range, then I'll
- 37:58Speaker 4: be putting Ritter in my lineup. But if I need
- 38:00Speaker 4: a punt underdog Meerstar is probably my favorite cheapo on
- 38:05Speaker 4: the card.
- 38:06Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it.
- 38:08Speaker 2: I'm gonna be playing both of them. If I had
- 38:10Speaker 2: to pick a preferred side, probably GM three just because
- 38:13Speaker 2: savvy bet I think he's live. Two k savings goes
- 38:16Speaker 2: a long way, and like I think I like robertson Moore.
- 38:19Speaker 2: I think I like Monster a little more if I
- 38:22Speaker 2: had to pick, but we also have projected a little
- 38:24Speaker 2: higher on and then it's so so close, like he
- 38:27Speaker 2: has all the wrestling and grappling upside too. According to
- 38:31Speaker 2: the books, it's not often to see a guy at
- 38:32Speaker 2: this much better of a submission prop over a guy
- 38:35Speaker 2: like GM three. But GM three has been subbed quite
- 38:38Speaker 2: a bit. But I mean de Ritter's subprop open plus
- 38:40Speaker 2: two to fifteen now plus one ninety that's a pretty big,
- 38:43Speaker 2: big movement right there. So I like it. I'll be
- 38:46Speaker 2: playing both sides. Good fight to target minus one sixty
- 38:49Speaker 2: five to finish. It's going on, little neck. You the man,
- 38:53Speaker 2: hope everything's going well. Everyone's the man that watches or
- 38:56Speaker 2: the woman, especially if you hit that like but man
- 38:58Speaker 2: subscribe but helps us out a ton bring new these
- 39:02Speaker 2: shows every single week, keep rolling Big Marley. Couple fights
- 39:05Speaker 2: left Bernardo Soapi taking on Ricky Tertios plus one twenty
- 39:10Speaker 2: or so Pie minus three sixty Tertios plus two eighty
- 39:14Speaker 2: five plus one twenty for this fight to finish, Sopi
- 39:18Speaker 2: plus one seventy inside the distance Tertios plus five point
- 39:21Speaker 2: fifty interesting fights. Slightly favored to go the distance. And
- 39:27Speaker 2: you're looking at ownership again. I already mentioned the lower
- 39:29Speaker 2: tier pretty much all spread out. Tertios is not going
- 39:33Speaker 2: to be pigh owned at all, pretty low owned, so Pi,
- 39:36Speaker 2: he's not going to be low owned. But we got
- 39:40Speaker 2: Reneea Ritter high ron Robertson higher n surubdual, higherron propt
- 39:45Speaker 2: is higher owned. So I mean this fight's route or
- 39:48Speaker 2: very fair ownership. Slight favor to go the distance. But hey,
- 39:52Speaker 2: looking at the stone right here, three point zero six takedowns.
- 39:55Speaker 2: It is a small sample. Tertios not too bad himself
- 39:59Speaker 2: for the price. Last thing to know, pretty big reach
- 40:02Speaker 2: and height advantage on the Tertio side so Pi seven
- 40:06Speaker 2: years younger. Though, how do you see this one?
- 40:09Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so Pi is the pick in this one.
- 40:13Speaker 4: He took his last fight on short notice, and I
- 40:15Speaker 4: believe it was maybe up a weight class as well.
- 40:18Speaker 3: But he was looking really good. He was looking like
- 40:20Speaker 3: he was gonna break the slate.
- 40:22Speaker 4: His wrestling was looking on point, and then he just
- 40:25Speaker 4: started to slow down because of the wrestling.
- 40:27Speaker 3: So I would think on a.
- 40:29Speaker 4: Full camp, especially after kind of being taught that lesson,
- 40:34Speaker 4: Hopefully the cardio isn't checking this one. Turkios does not
- 40:37Speaker 4: have great takedown defense. I think so Pi could go
- 40:40Speaker 4: out there and land eight takedowns and in a decision
- 40:44Speaker 4: if he wanted to, if the cardio was there, and
- 40:47Speaker 4: he could score one hundred plus points. So I like Sopi,
- 40:50Speaker 4: but at the same time, I do worry about that cardio.
- 40:53Speaker 4: And then Turkyos is a cardio machine. He's high volume.
- 40:59Speaker 4: He's not very good anywhere, but he's just got a
- 41:02Speaker 4: high work rate. And if so Pi is gonna slow down,
- 41:05Speaker 4: Turkios can really put on put it on him and
- 41:08Speaker 4: have a pretty decent ceiling.
- 41:09Speaker 3: So Turkio is another punt. I like him.
- 41:12Speaker 4: And mir Meer Shark will be cheap os that I'm
- 41:15Speaker 4: clicking on in this fight. But I just think that
- 41:19Speaker 4: so Pie is better than him, and if he doesn't
- 41:21Speaker 4: slow down in this fight, I think he could win anywhere.
- 41:24Speaker 3: But his wrestling is where he should win. So give
- 41:27Speaker 3: me so Pie to put up a decent score.
- 41:29Speaker 2: I like him, I like it. I'm on the Sofi
- 41:32Speaker 2: side as well. I will play some Tertios because again
- 41:35Speaker 2: plus two fifth or plus tw eighty five, it's pretty
- 41:38Speaker 2: big dog. But there's a lot of big dogs, and
- 41:40Speaker 2: I do think if Tertios wins, he probably scores like
- 41:43Speaker 2: he's always doing something except as a hobby fight. That
- 41:46Speaker 2: fight was awful, but I think Sopi at least pushes
- 41:49Speaker 2: the pace enough where some reversals maybe scrambles, he ends
- 41:53Speaker 2: up on top volume. I think if he wins again,
- 41:56Speaker 2: I'll take any win as a dog. But like I
- 41:59Speaker 2: like his upside more than Stamens down below. I like
- 42:02Speaker 2: it more than probably Segula. That's pretty close. But yeah,
- 42:08Speaker 2: I'm gonna be playing some Tertios, but I think Sopi
- 42:11Speaker 2: wins the fight. He's my preferred play in this one.
- 42:14Speaker 2: Gonna get to a fight I do not like it
- 42:16Speaker 2: will be a fade for me in twenty entry in
- 42:17Speaker 2: below doesn't look like you like it much either with
- 42:20Speaker 2: the two star, but a big favorite and a very
- 42:23Speaker 2: clear pivot fight if you want to get to it.
- 42:25Speaker 2: Especially Danise Gomes minus five hundred, Caroly Nicolo Keevich plus
- 42:29Speaker 2: three eighty five plus one sixty five for this fight
- 42:32Speaker 2: to finish, I will say this fight open plus two fifteen. Oh, okay,
- 42:37Speaker 2: that's interesting. Go you know what I'm gonna take. I'm
- 42:40Speaker 2: gonna take this back. I might have to play some
- 42:43Speaker 2: Danise Gomes. This line movement is big. So it was
- 42:46Speaker 2: plus two to fifteen to finish, now plus one sixty
- 42:48Speaker 2: five Gomes open plus two to ten inside the distance
- 42:52Speaker 2: now plus one sixty five. There's been some that's some
- 42:55Speaker 2: pretty significant line movement. Do you see it going that way?
- 42:59Speaker 2: Big Marley, So, I guess you might be the ultimate
- 43:01Speaker 2: deciding factor.
- 43:06Speaker 4: I do think Gums live to get a knockout in
- 43:08Speaker 4: this fight at lower ownership. I'm pretty cool with her
- 43:13Speaker 4: in some lineups. I think she's a solid pivot away
- 43:15Speaker 4: from protas. I do think she's a little bit better.
- 43:20Speaker 4: I don't know about everywhere. I think a fifteen minute
- 43:22Speaker 4: striking match could actually favor KK. But aside from that,
- 43:26Speaker 4: just a fifteen minute overall MMA fight, Gomes is the
- 43:29Speaker 4: better wrestler. She's the more powerful fighter in this one.
- 43:32Speaker 4: If there's a knockdown, it's going to be her getting it.
- 43:35Speaker 4: If anyone's getting five plus takedowns, it's probably her getting them.
- 43:40Speaker 4: So I just think she is our minute winner unless
- 43:43Speaker 4: she just has a poor game plan and wants to
- 43:45Speaker 4: spar with KK for fifteen minutes. That's what puts KK
- 43:50Speaker 4: in play to win, and then she could rack up
- 43:53Speaker 4: enough volume to where she's scoring more than ten x
- 43:56Speaker 4: in a decision win. I just don't know how likely
- 43:58Speaker 4: that is point in her career, she's kind of gonna
- 44:01Speaker 4: be on the way out soon, where Gomes is the
- 44:05Speaker 4: young hungary lion, So I'm picking Gums to win. I
- 44:10Speaker 4: think most likely she wins and scores eighty points.
- 44:13Speaker 3: So I don't like her, But.
- 44:15Speaker 4: If you're eating all the dos Santos chuck, I think
- 44:19Speaker 4: her over a prataste is a decent move to take,
- 44:23Speaker 4: and then maybe find one other way to get a
- 44:24Speaker 4: little different too, But yeah, give me games to win.
- 44:28Speaker 2: I like it. Yeah, I'm gonna play some Gomes. I
- 44:30Speaker 2: was initially gonna fade in twenty them below. But even
- 44:32Speaker 2: if I got ten percent, like we have Gomes, I'm
- 44:35Speaker 2: not gonna say all the ownership, but I even think
- 44:38Speaker 2: we might even be a little hot on going.
- 44:39Speaker 4: Yeah, I have her pretty high right now, ownership with
- 44:41Speaker 4: stuff I'm gonna I'm gonna revisit it tomorrow.
- 44:44Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Gham's probably gonna be like what eighteen percent
- 44:49Speaker 2: something around there. It's not logo plus one sixty plus
- 44:52Speaker 2: one sixty five though, Yeah, that line movement. I've changed
- 44:56Speaker 2: an updated and the sleigh plan right now, so I'm
- 44:58Speaker 2: gonna make I'm gonna keep her in the pool, I think,
- 45:00Speaker 2: but if that changes again. All the content always updated
- 45:03Speaker 2: on the site for the members. Last fight main event,
- 45:07Speaker 2: Time talked a little bit about it. Carlos Protest taking
- 45:10Speaker 2: on Neil Magni tied to the biggest favorite on the cart.
- 45:13Speaker 2: Minus seven to fifty is Protest plus five point fifty
- 45:16Speaker 2: is Neil Magni most likely fight to finish minus eight
- 45:20Speaker 2: hundred Protest minus four hundred Neil Magni plus five fifty
- 45:25Speaker 2: Neil Magni is a sitting duck. Carlos Prontees is good man.
- 45:29Speaker 2: This dude's striking his fans. He is fun, fun to watch.
- 45:33Speaker 2: He has grown on me. Smoke SIGs, I mean, come on,
- 45:36Speaker 2: what fighter be smoking SIGs like that? Nashley Mall and dudes.
- 45:40Speaker 2: The thing is that we talked about earlier. Yes, he
- 45:43Speaker 2: is the highest priced, biggest favor. Two, he has no
- 45:47Speaker 2: wrestling upside, absolutely none. Four point seven to one significant
- 45:51Speaker 2: strikes per minute. If he doesn't get a first round knockout,
- 45:54Speaker 2: second could score one hundred. One hundred might not be
- 45:57Speaker 2: good enough, probably isn't actually good enough, third round, fourth rown,
- 46:01Speaker 2: et cetera. So he can win and not get there,
- 46:03Speaker 2: and we've seen it. He also does have upside and
- 46:06Speaker 2: obviously has plenty of knockdown upside, and the good thing
- 46:09Speaker 2: about him is he doesn't like go in like when
- 46:12Speaker 2: he gets a knockdown for the kill shot, sometimes takes
- 46:14Speaker 2: his time. Other dude recovers, gets up, knocks his hess
- 46:17Speaker 2: down again as we've seen. So he's really just my thought.
- 46:22Speaker 2: We haven't that fifty percent The other fighters I think
- 46:25Speaker 2: are lower owned and have damn near the same upside
- 46:29Speaker 2: or more. Argue like Robertson has more upside. I think
- 46:32Speaker 2: Ben prats due to the wrestling and just changing takedowns,
- 46:35Speaker 2: and she's cheaper, so I'll probably end up underweight Protest
- 46:40Speaker 2: at or at most fifty percent. But I mean he's,
- 46:44Speaker 2: I mean really excited to see what he does in
- 46:46Speaker 2: the UFC. He is he's a problem.
- 46:50Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually think I'm gonna go low on this fight.
- 46:54Speaker 3: I don't think I want to go with any Magni.
- 46:56Speaker 4: This is a fight set up for Protest to get
- 46:59Speaker 4: his hand and raised coming off an awesome performance where
- 47:03Speaker 4: Magnie's coming off with complete dud. He's towards the end
- 47:05Speaker 4: of his career where Protest looks like he could be
- 47:09Speaker 4: a title contender, really good striking, dangerous as well, just
- 47:15Speaker 4: long striker, accurate, hits right where he wants to basically,
- 47:20Speaker 4: and that performance against Lee Jing Lang was just like
- 47:24Speaker 4: everyone was sold on it. So that where that's why
- 47:27Speaker 4: he is in this main event right here, is because
- 47:29Speaker 4: of how great he looked in that last fight. Without
- 47:34Speaker 4: that fight, there's no way he would have been a
- 47:35Speaker 4: minus eight hundred here. And it's also like he's a
- 47:40Speaker 4: really good striker, but it takes him a while to
- 47:42Speaker 4: get going. In my opinion, it's not like he just
- 47:44Speaker 4: starts out and he's dangerous right off the opening bell.
- 47:48Speaker 4: He kind of starts feeling himself and then that's when
- 47:52Speaker 4: that's when he gets dangerous. But who knows how long
- 47:55Speaker 4: it'll take. I kind of think it'll be a little
- 47:56Speaker 4: slow start here. He also has a possible five rounds
- 47:59Speaker 4: to work, so I like protests over one and a
- 48:02Speaker 4: half rounds on this one, and that's probably not great
- 48:05Speaker 4: for him at ninety six hundred dollars on DraftKings so
- 48:09Speaker 4: at fifty percent ownership, and Magne's getting a decent amount
- 48:13Speaker 4: too for how cheap he is. In my opinion, I'm
- 48:16Speaker 4: gonna go low on this fight and just get some
- 48:18Speaker 4: exposure to the other guys in that nine k range instead.
- 48:21Speaker 4: I definitely like Robertson, I definitely like Malik, but getting
- 48:25Speaker 4: away from Protests will help me get to more of
- 48:27Speaker 4: the Soapi and the Ritter as well, maybe a little
- 48:30Speaker 4: Gomes as well too, So.
- 48:32Speaker 3: I might like ten lineups.
- 48:35Speaker 4: Maybe I even fade fade this fight and look to
- 48:38Speaker 4: go to those other ones instead and hope that Protest
- 48:41Speaker 4: wins after the second round and scores eighty nine points.
- 48:48Speaker 2: I love it everything I could agree more. I'm gonna
- 48:50Speaker 2: have no O'Neil Magnie, I probably would have none in
- 48:52Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty teams. I think he's gonna get work.
- 48:55Speaker 2: But Protest really has to first round knockout, multiple knockdowns
- 49:00Speaker 2: since second round, well it's a first round. Prop is
- 49:05Speaker 2: plus two hundred, like Malachi is better that you talked
- 49:10Speaker 2: about Monster, So yeah, I don't love it plus three hundred.
- 49:15Speaker 2: Round two that's that's about as low as you almost
- 49:18Speaker 2: ever see. Round two really close to round one as well,
- 49:20Speaker 2: so which makes sense. Like you said, can be a
- 49:22Speaker 2: slow Scott starter when he starts touching his opponents feeling
- 49:25Speaker 2: himself gigs. I think Neil Magni going to have a
- 49:30Speaker 2: big boy problem. Great stuff is always big Marley. Any
- 49:33Speaker 2: final thoughts you want to say to the people before
- 49:34Speaker 2: we get on out of here. Appreciate every single one watching.
- 49:38Speaker 4: Hopefully it's a nice bankroll builder for the pay per
- 49:41Speaker 4: view next week. Good luck to you title, good luck
- 49:44Speaker 4: to everybody listening.
- 49:45Speaker 3: Let's ship it.
- 49:46Speaker 2: Let's ship it is right. Good luck. I'm in May Saturday,
- 49:49Speaker 2: ride into free money Sunday. Nothing better best time of
- 49:52Speaker 2: the year. Head overship in nation dot Com Join it
- 49:55Speaker 2: hit the like bud and hit the subscribe button on
- 49:57Speaker 2: the way out to have a great week and be
- 49:59Speaker 2: safe for big.
- 50:15Speaker 5: Most busts and still and stills most uns.