Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / $80,000 Bitcoin in September Possible? 📈Crypto Market Update

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$80,000 Bitcoin in September Possible? 📈Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: One of the biggest things we're going to be talking
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: about today is bitcoin and its future, especially of whether
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: or not it can make an all time high in September.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: We'll give you some reasons why we think that might
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: happen today on the show. And of course I want
• 0:18
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• 0:21
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• 0:40
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• 0:43
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• 0:46
  Speaker 1: check it out and see what you guys think. I
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: want to jump to a couple of news items here
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: for the week. Right here, of course, is Genevieve talking
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: about what's up for the week. Right now, we get
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: a couple of things fortunate fire excuse me. The S
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: and P five hundred just had its best week, up
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: three point nine Dow is up three point nine, NASAC
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: sword to five point two, So nice week. All eyes
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: are on the FED meeting in Jackson Hole, which is
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: leading up to Friday. Also, the rate cut odds for
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: September right now hovering around seventy three percent, which is
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: pretty significant. Cutting rates with socks near record highs. That's
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: a very interesting thing. But could happen. I don't know.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: We're still in a position right now where the FED
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: might take a look at some of the jobs reports
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: and the fact that we haven't seen a major slice
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: in inflation, disinflation continuing to occur. We could it be
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: a scenario where we get another pause, And if that
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: were to happen, I think the markets would respond pretty violently.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: I do want to go to a clip because there's
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: a couple of things that are happening right now in
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: essence of what could go on in Jackson Hole. Here
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: is an analyst breaking it down for you. Take a look.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: You know, Powell is just exceptional at that very balance.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: He usually uses his Jackson Hoole speech to zoom out
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: a bit and give a really high level forecast for
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: where the economy is headed and a pretty sharp diagnosis
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: of the Fed's inflation fight. The challenge this year is
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: going to be to not only recap all of that progress,
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: but give as clear a signal as he's willing to
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: give on what we're going to expect in September.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: Why do you think there's such pressure on the FED
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: right now about cutting rates.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: Is it simply because we've seen them high for this long?
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: I think there are a few things going on. As
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: you said, rates are still very high, and they've remained
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: high even when we're starting to see other parts of
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: the economy slow down. So you'll hear FED officials talk
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: about this growing risk between keeping rates too high for
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: too long and having that come with other consequences that
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: you start to see the economy cooling in areas that
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: have been able to stay very strong. So as you
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: have inflation cooling and reliably cooling closer to the FEDS
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: target to see the job market slow, there are concerns
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: that eventually consumers will yank back. The trick is that
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: we're not really seating that in extreme terms yet, we're
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: not in a recession. It doesn't look like we're headed
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: for one. But when those things tend to get a
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: little bit more serious, it can happen very quickly.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I think that's the key right there, is her last statement.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: If we get into a sideways position, it can go
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: wrong very quickly. And I think that's the concern right
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: now that everybody has is have we overpressed it and
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: has the FED maybe just held on too long here,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: because remember, if they have to act reactionary, that could
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: be one of the worst things for the S and
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: P five hundred. Granted, the S and P flying gold
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: at an all time high, and of course even Bitcoin
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: still holding a significant lead over its year to day.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: So I think we're still in a position right now
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: to be looking at this very cautiously. If you look
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: at Goldman Sachs, they're saying that the US recession probability
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: is down to twenty percent. I'm still feeling that we
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: are in a little bit tighter position overall. And of course,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: part of this I think is going to be coming
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: out in the jobs numbers, and that's the real concern.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Even if they were to cut, if the job's numbers
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: come in very soft, that may be a little too
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: late for what could happen in the coming months. Goma
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Sacks tweaked its outlook, though saying twenty percent is a
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: year from twenty five down to twenty in terms of probability.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: If the August jobs report, this gets back to my
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: point right here is set to drop on September six,
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: doesn't disappoint. They might cut the potential for a recession
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: even further. This is the date that I think you
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: guys all need to put on your calendar, and that
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: of course is September six. This is when the job's
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: data comes in. This will be the one piece of
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: data that I think will hit the market much harder.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Now many people are looking at where could bitcoin go
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: from here, and I think a lot of it is
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: going to depend on politically what's going on. And of course,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: if you look at the current political tracking, this is
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: over on our political tracker, Donald Trump right there, he
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: slid quite a bit. When Kamala Harris came into the race,
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: he had been sliding, but here recently has started to
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: pick up a little bit of steam since around the
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: thirteenth of August, with the Harris campaign starting to lose
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: steam primarily because of their lack of actually addressing the
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: crypto market. And of course you have RFK, which has
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: been falling off dramatically in huge fashion. I know that
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: he has been struggling with the crypto crowd, even in
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: the most recent he actually went over to the Cardinal conference,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So I think it's just a scenario where maybe he's
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: just not getting in on the right people. By the way,
• 5:42
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• 5:45
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• 6:00
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  Speaker 1: below to join that. Very easy. Let's jump over to
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin Real Quick Institutional Investors Flood Bitcoin ETFs Q two.
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: This, of course, is what.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: We've been seeing, and I think a lot of people
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: are wondering whether or not this can hold up for
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: the rest of the year. A lot of points within
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: the article that I think are interesting. One that I
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: wanted to focus in on was a couple right here.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Highlights of the thirteen F filings. Institutional ownership of these
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: ETFs grew from twenty one point four to twenty four percent.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Hedge funds holdings in these ETFs decreased a little bit
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: from thirty seven to thirty and then Goldman came in
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: and said, hey, wait a minute, We've got four and
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: twelve million in holdings right now in Morgan Stanley holding
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: one to eighty eight, So pretty significant numbers overall. And
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I think this is the question when you look at
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: the ETFs in general, are you seeing more retail because
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: this is something that even myself has started to see
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: many people that I know, colleagues and industry types that
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: are saying, I want to exposure, but I want to
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: do it in somewhere that I'm comfortable with, usually in
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: my you know, exchange account or in my brokerage account.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: And I think that's the big difference right now that's
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: rolling into the ETFs. Will this hold for the next
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: few months and we see, especially if we see an
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: all time high coming in September, that'll be interesting to watch.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: But right now, if theory of metfs are struggling a
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: little bit. Since they're launch, they've recorded negative total inflows
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: primarily due to the gray scale e trust being bleeding
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: out cash and a similar story for the Bitcoin ETFs
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: except for Eth, there isn't enough demand to compensate for
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the gray scale drag. That's the problem that we've been watching.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: So we'll see how this plays out. Because of course,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: even though Eth has been holding its own, you know,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: around twenty six, So we'll see if this one continues
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: to track along with Bitcoin as well. Bitcoin analysts converge
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: on a breakout in September and are talking about an
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: eighty six k possibility. A couple of points that they
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: hint on tends Bitcoin tends to break out to the
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: parabolock phase in the cycle about one hundred and sixty
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: days after the happening. If that repeats itself, bitcoin could
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: just be over a month away from a breakout. So
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: if that were the time, then we may be nearing
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: if those cycles stay true, into a very interesting time
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: for bitcoin. Let me know what you guys think. Drop
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: some comments down below if you think we're going to
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: see a green September or not, because I think this
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: is the one to watch for sure. Other things I
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: want to hit on right here, of course, is Eleanor Tarrett.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Dems have officially released their party platform on day one
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: of the DNC no mention of blockchain technology. This is
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: happening right now, bitcoin, digital assets, or anything related to crypto.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: And again we're just reaching out to Whydie Nickel right there,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: one of the lead Dems that is trying to position
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: at least a positive spin on this. Hopefully this gets
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: some kind of statement during the DNC this week. If
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: it doesn't, this could be a very interesting situation brewing
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: because we may see a slide off in polymarket predictions.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Even though we saw that this weekend where we saw
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Trump rise almost four percent, Kamala Harris dropped four percent.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: We'll see if that continues to kind of go back
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: and forth on this, especially as Harris starts to release
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: their policy situation other things that are happening right here.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: By comparison, there's the GOP party platform that is a
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: specific section dedicated to championing innovation, and of course that
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: includes crypto, AI and even space travel. But this is
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: the thing that is really the difference, which is why
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I believe that we continue to see the Republicans be
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: the championing force for crypto voters. Remember, there's thirty two
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: million right now that we know of that are crypto
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: interested and willing to vote and I think that's out
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: of the ninety plus million that we have in the
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: United States that are either have held it or currently
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: hold crypto. This is a huge voting block that I
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: just don't understand why the Harris campaign has been able
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: to jump in. I want to go to a clip
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: real quick, because this clip we'll get into. Remember when
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Harris was asked to come, I believe to the Bitcoin
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: conference and how that all played out, because that was
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: really when we started to see Trump's position on crypto unfold.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Take a look at this clip.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: How close was Kamala actually coming to speaking at Bitcoin
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty four?
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: How real was that real? But I can't describe it
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: as close because you know, we never talked to her
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: directly ourselves, and there was a lot of let's say,
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: there's a lot of different people I think in her orbit,
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: and the power structure of that orbit is not clear,
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: Like it's not clear who's the shot caller and who's not.
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: But at the same time, you know, what we don't
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: want to do is have someone come in and deceive
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: our industry about their support and you know, be actively
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: fucking over our industry and then pretend that that's not
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: the case and Mia Kolpa and use that as a
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: platform to take away momentum from her political her political competitor.
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: When you know what we need is like, we need
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: this to be a decisive election, for this issue to
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: become a bipartisan and if we allow it to get
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: muddied with someone making kind of false claims of support
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: when they're like actively running the administration, I mean, she's
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: like in charge. What's your take on that, David?
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Do you think do you think we have to pick
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: a side?
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: No, we're not picking a side. We're single issue voters.
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: I mean that's the thing. We're single issue voters. That's
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: what we care about. And if one side wants to
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: cater to our single issue, then they're going to win
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: our votes. It's that simple.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: So you get to it right there, guys. I mean,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: we were talking about thirty plus million single issue voters,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: or at least top issue voters being digital assets. That
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: of course was David Bailey, who is the organizer of
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: the Bitcoin conference where Trump announced his strategic reserve. You had,
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: you know RFK there. The key is you hat a
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: lot of people talking about digital assets, bitcoin crypto in
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: general in a very positive light, and I would say
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: by now at this point, at the very least, I
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: think from the Democrats, whatever they represent or present will
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: be somewhat specious. I think I don't know if we
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: can trust anything coming out of that camp right now.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: But hey, listen, there was an opportunity, and I think
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: they've missed it now. Is it too late? No, it's
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: never too late. But the fact that we've got so
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: much happening in DC around this that has been such
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: a struggle from the existing administration, I don't know. I
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: don't know that they're really interested in crypto or digital
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: assets at all, nor do I think that they even
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: care that there's thirty plus million voters that are interested
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: in this, So that in itself is a problem. Looking
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: at polymarket, of course, Trump took a lift and then
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: he is retraced slightly, still tracking slightly under the Harris campaign.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: You can kind of see this little move right here.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: I'll zoom in on this section right here. This was
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: the bump right here that happened over the weekend that
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: was pretty significant where you saw the drop and the lift,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: and of course that all came mainly on the announcement
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: of many policies that the Harris campaign started to reveal,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: many of which were questionable. I'll just leave them with that.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: We won't go into a lot of detail on that,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: but you can kind of see this is getting to
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: be a very tight race whether polymarket is correct, and
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: I think at the very last minute we will see
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: poly markets start to reveal a lot of things much
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: like what we saw in the VP probability as well.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: And of course I want to go to this last clip.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: This is Jake Clayton talking about what could happen if
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: we did see a GOP White House.
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: Take a look if we continue to be tech leaders, Well,
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: we're tech leaders. We get the benefit of growth around
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: the globe. We only have three hundred and sixty million people.
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: There's eight billion people in the world. When they get
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: hooked in to a digital economy, we all benefit greatly.
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: Capital allocation. We're better at allocating capital than anybody else
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: in the world. Four percent of the world population. We
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: allocate over fifty percent of the world. Trump focus on
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: those things and competence in government. That's how you get
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: real growth. That's how you get real wage growth for
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: the people in the middle eighty percent of the economy.
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: I want this idea that you're going to go out
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: and sort of say some prices are good and some
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: prices are right.
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: It's lunacy.
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: If you could unequivocally say Donald Trump would be one
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: hundred and eighty degrees from Lena Khan in the Body
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: administration on any trust that might be something you could sell,
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: but you can't say that. You don't know what his
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: inn trust stance would be. And JD. Vans are some
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: people that say he's said friendly things.
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: About I think it's pretty clear that if you go
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: back to twenty sixteen to twenty twenty, the approach to
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: regulation in the US was more pro growth than it
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: is today.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that is the point. You just
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: have to look at the past administration and what their
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: performance was and everybody to at least a lot of
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: the research that we've done and seen is that it
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: is still people remember pre COVID, They remember what was
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: going on in the country under that administration. I think
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: this is the real question mark, because if you don't
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: have that occur, what would the United States look like?
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Taking a quick look at the bitcoin chart right now,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: of course, sentiment overall is starting trend slightly up as
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin's getting a green candle today, covering off that fifty
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: was nice around fifty seven to nine. Holding what we
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: see right now here at about fifty nine to three.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: If we see that continue to hold ethereum holding in
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: around the twenty six hundred after a dip over the
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: weekend and now retracing a little bit, but still showing
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a negative sentiment overall. We're going
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: to continue to track this this week. We'll keep a
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: close eye on what's happening in Jackson Hole. We'll give
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: you guys an analysis as well this week on some
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: of the additional projects that we're tracking from a channel standpoint. Obviously,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: if you're not following me out there on X make
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: sure and do that. It's a great place to catch
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: other things that I'm talking about and doing, and of
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: course we'll catch you next time right here on tech
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Maath