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The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw · Strictly Business Podcast

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock shadow.
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And as always, on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG
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Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.
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What a day it's been, Skulk.
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And I sort of gravitate towards the commodities page of my system here rather
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than the stock
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indices, because I know what they're going to be doing.
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They're going to be going up.
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When the war's on, they go sideways or up.
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And when the war's off, they go up.
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It's very simple.
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So it's not a difficult market.
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But the gold and the oil and everything.
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Who'd be a commodities trader?
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What fun.
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Oh, boy.
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I mean, it's, yeah, you said what a day it's been.
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But, I mean, what a year it's been thus far.
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I mean, it's just crazy the volatility that we've had.
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And, yeah, you mentioned it.
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If you...
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You're a trader and you like markets to go up a lot,
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drop back a lot and then go up a lot again.
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Then, yeah, this market is definitely for you.
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But, yeah, definitely not for orphans and widows, for sure.
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Just the oil price.
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There's no orphans and widows if you're in the oil market because it was bowling
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along, Brent crude that is,
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at around about 110, 111.
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It drifted down to 108, 109.
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Then the announcement came out from a company called Axios, a news agency called
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Axios,
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that they'd got a one-page memo, one page after all this time and all this death and
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all this destruction,
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a one-page memorandum of understanding between Iran and America.
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And I thought, no, wait a second, one page?
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You're going to fix it with just a few scribbled notes?
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I didn't believe it.
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The oil traders did believe it, took oil down to a low of $96.77.
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And now it's back up sort of mid-range at the moment.
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So it doesn't know whether to go back to the highs or back to the lows or even
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lower.
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It's fascinating.
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As for gold, again, it follows the dollar.
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The euro-dollar loses about three-quarters of a percent and gold goes through the
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roof.
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Yeah.
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I mean, that's something that I...
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Beautifully.
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But just look at these movements.
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I mean, if you look at, for instance, Sasol, you were talking about the world
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price and how it retraced.
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Suddenly, we had the dollar weakening again and the gold price is gone.
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And you've got the likes of Anglo Gold 5% up.
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Goldfields, look at this.
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I mean, what a boy.
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Close to 9%, 9% up.
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Harmony, 10% up.
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Durban Riddipur Deep came out with a sense announcement or trading update this
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morning.
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They're up 8, you know, 0.3%.
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But then on the inverse side, you've got the likes of Sasol.
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Sasol down 7.3% today.
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Yesterday was up close to 3%.
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Last week, we also had a similar...
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And suddenly Trump comes out with a true social, or in this case, some optimism.
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We go from Project Epic Fury to Project Freedom.
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Yeah, Epic Fury, Project Freedom.
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What was the Venezuela one?
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I can't remember what that one was.
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And I can't remember what the initial bombing of Iran was called either.
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It was some silly name that someone comes up with.
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But anyway, yes, you're quite right.
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Project Freedom lasted for a day.
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He wants out of this war, doesn't he?
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I don't think he wants out of it.
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I think he's getting pressured to get out of it ASAP.
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I mean, let's just take a country, one of his bigger trading partners, one of
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NATO country, and one of the countries that's been fairly supportive.
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And here I'm referring to Australia.
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Australia yesterday, they had a rate...
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uh increase um third one in a row now and and now they interest rates are
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effectively
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back to to where it was before they started the rate cuts so pretty much
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the highest levels again since since covid so so that's i mean i i think i if
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you go to a general australian today and say what do they think of uh
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the war and what did I think about the US, I don't think you're going to have, you
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know, polite comments coming from, from, from,
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from down under.
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So, and I think that's, that's just one country.
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And I've been watching a lot of these, these, you know, yesterday I watched a,
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a interview with, with the French prime minister.
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You could see it's sort of a, they need to content themselves not to really speak
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their mind.
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So I don't think his popularity globally is looking good,
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but more importantly his popularity in the US.
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Because those people need to go to the gas stations and fill up their muscle cars as
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well.
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I can tell you they're not going to be.
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He was boasting of gas, as they call it, gasoline,
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petrol to us price.
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He was boasting of petrol prices at $1.80 a gallon.
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And that was when he was on a rally in Iowa or Idaho or somewhere.
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I can't remember.
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It began with an I.
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So forgive me if you're listening from either of those places.
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But anyway, it wasn't.
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He was wrong.
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But that's where he is expected.
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Petrol prices to be in the United States, sub $2, and now they're $4.50 to $5.
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I don't know what it'll be today.
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They'll adjust them tomorrow because of today's moves.
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But let's call it $4.50.
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So more than twice what Trump was talking about.
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Two and a half times, in fact, what Trump was talking about.
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So, yeah, his popularity is down the tubes.
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In talking about NATO allies, of course, it was Friedrich Metz, the German leader,
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Chancellor Metz.
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He is the one that really...
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really annoyed Mr.
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Trump by saying that Iran has humiliated the United States.
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The United States had no strategy.
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The United States didn't know when to end the war.
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He said all these things in a very measured way.
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He wasn't being petty like Trump is when he attacks someone.
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And, of course, the first thing Trump does is he says, OK, 25%
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increase on tariffs for EU cars.
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And also we're pulling 5,000 troops out of Germany. That is what you're dealing with
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here, tit-for-tat pettiness.
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Yeah.
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And you got me into watching Jimmy Kimmel.
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Isn't he brilliant?
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Oh, man.
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To all the listeners out there, you know, besides listening to your Strictly
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Business podcast,
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you're an absolute must every day.
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And yeah, Lindsay got me into this.
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I do not.
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end a day without watching Jimmy Kimmel and it's live you go into
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YouTube listen as you don't have to subscribe to anything you can actually
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watch him live it is
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hilarious it is the most funny thing but but the worst of all everything
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Jimmy Kimmel brewing every single evening is
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the whole harder truth it is just crazy to think you know what this person
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can get up to.
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I mean, the one thing, I don't know if you watched, I think it was last night or the
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previous night,
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we mentioned when it took its time, it was something like half past 10 in the evening
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until half past 11.
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Over that hour...
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Yes, he went through all his Truth Social posts.
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11 of them.
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At 11.03 he did this, at 11.06 he did that.
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Yes, I watched that yesterday.
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Very, very clever the way he dissects it.
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He's got a team of writers.
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It's not just Kimmel, but Kimmel presents...
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Kimmel's part of the team, but he presents it so beautifully.
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And he's got it with a twinkle in his eye and a smile on his face when he does it.
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He's not bitter.
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He's not twisted.
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He's not nasty.
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Although you could imagine that he wants to be, and behind closed doors he is.
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It's pure cleverness, I think.
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But also, according to Trump, he's not funny either.
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He's shockingly funny.
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He's shockingly funny.
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But the one thing he mentioned in that, and that's good.
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we said, you know, if this was some relative, it was a grandmother or mother,
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you know,
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tweeting this amount of obscurities, or just this amount of tweets over a one-hour
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period.
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It was 11 of them over a one-hour period.
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You would address the issue.
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Of course.
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You would call that person and say, Dad, Grandpa, Grandma.
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Stop it now.
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Yeah, you know.
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borderline schizophrenic.
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Come on, you need to now turn it down.
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I mean, this is the president of the largest economy in the world.
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Oh, man.
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But yeah, that's all the listeners to do.
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Go and watch Jimmy Kimmel.
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But what I want to get to is how things can change.
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I mean, we went into this morning, I got up, usually I get up around about 5
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o'clock,
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5.60.
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And then I start reading.
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I look at what happened um You know, overnight,
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I will usually go and see what's going on in the East, more specifically China.
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And then I'll get a broad idea of what this day will look like.
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So I open up and I see Tencent.
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That's down.
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2% on that stage.
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Oil was hovering.
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Things were just not going anywhere.
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I thought, oh, this is going to be another one of those days.
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It's Naspers, Bosa's going to be down.
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And it doesn't seem like there's going to be some action on the precious metals.
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We should see a red day.
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And man, there's one pager.
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The memorandum of intent to end the war.
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We are so close.
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You know, Project Freedom.
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And there we go.
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We ended this day.
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Whop.
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What a day.
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When last did we see the top 40 being up 4%?
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That is a big move.
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I mean, it's not as if it's coming off a low base.
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It's suddenly bouncing back off after being shattered.
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This is off a high, high base.
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So 4% is a really, really big move.
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But of course, everything not so good for South Africa on the inflation front.
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I believe that your car is going to cost you quite, I don't know what you drive,
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I'm not going to ask.
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But I imagine it's going to cost you quite a lot more to fill it up.
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Yeah, yeah.
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I mean, we'll be looking at three-odd-rand petrol, close to six-rand.
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Luckily, they made a bit of a typo there.
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So close to six-rand on diesel as from today.
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So if you're still thinking of rushing to the petrol station and trying to fill
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up, it's done.
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It's dusted.
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You are paying that more now.
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And, you know,
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we should still be grateful to a certain extent because the government,
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we're still getting subsidized that three rand levy, three rand per liter levy on
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both diesel and oil.
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So even if we see a no change in the rent oil
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price over the next, let's call it 30 odd days or 24 days, then the…
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Petrol price will go up again.
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So hopefully this memorandum for intent, this one pager, could see that the oil
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price, you know,
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continue going stronger.
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And that could be better because Kachaniahu, I mean,
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he made it blatantly clear two days ago that they're going to have no choice.
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If this is where things are going to stay, if, as you mentioned, the inflation rate
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is going to pressure upwards again, they're going to have no choice.
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at the next meeting.
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to increase the South African interest rates, very similar to what Australia has
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done as well.
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I don't think it's sort of a, if it's going to happen,
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I know they were slow out of the blocks to reduce rates, you know, compared to some
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of these other countries.
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So they maybe have some play.
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But I mean, I do think that that's the only weapon.
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I've got a problem with that, Lindsay.
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I mean, I seriously got a problem with it.
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We've often had this conversation.
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because The South African Reserve Bank can take the interest rates up to 25% now,
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and it will have zero effect on what's happening on the Strait of Hormuz, the oil
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price, and ultimately our inflation rate.
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Have a zero effect, yet you're going to sort of punish the South Africans, you're
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going to punish the South African economy,
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because that's the only, let's call it, weapon in your...
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I always think that when you look at inflation, OK, you've got to look at core
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inflation and you've got to look at headline inflation as well.
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My argument has always been that if the petrol price goes up quite sharply, as it
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has done in South Africa,
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then that's an inelastic demand.
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It doesn't matter.
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You've still got to take your kids to school.
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You've still got to get in a taxi to go to work.
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And that taxi has to put petrol in the taxi and he or she pays more.
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So you've got to...
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they've got to put their prices up.
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So that's money coming out of your pocket.
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Now, if you have a fixed budget every month, if you're lucky enough to have
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enough money not to worry about it, that's a small percentage of the population.
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But most of the population says, OK, well, there's
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50 rand a week that I'm paying extra for travel.
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That's got to come out of somewhere, so I'll cut out this.
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And if you cut out that, that reduces demand in the rest of the economy or
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sectors of the rest of the economy.
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So that suppresses inflation, doesn't it?
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Maybe not to the extent of the oil price going up because it has a bigger
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weighting.
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But you see my argument here.
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Demand is reduced because of the oil price going up.
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Yeah, no, no, no, for sure.
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I had a conversation with somebody last night and he actually went on like this.
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I don't know what poll did he take.
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But it basically came down that they can already see that people are
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Not driving like they used to, not going out as they used to.
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And that's because the petrol prices are...
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Yes, I think it's...
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It's a very, very sad situation because we went into 2026 not thinking in terms of
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rate hikes.
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We were thinking of how many rate cuts we could have in 2026, which could help our
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economy.
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Remember, we went in, the IMF had us in January at 1.4 percent.
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And you and I still have that conversation.
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So, well, 1.4, that's really disappointing.
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disappointing.
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I mean, they're getting more optimistic and they actually increased us to 1.4%.
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Well, that's been decreased two weeks ago to 1% again.
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And if we're going to see rate hikes in 2026,
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I'm going to look at that 1% and say we're going to be lucky getting that.
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But yeah.
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I think you're right.
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Anyway.
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Anyway, just before we get to the numbers, because we've had a good chat to start
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with, we didn't even get into
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where the gold price is going, because that's a sort of a futile argument, I
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think, or a futile conversation.
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I just want you to look at the narrowness of the market,
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because 2026 was lauded as the year where the market broadened, the bull market
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broadened,
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because the 2025 bull market, good bull market it was, in the United States I'm
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talking about now, was terribly,
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terribly narrow.
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I think it's got even narrower now, Scalp, with that.
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NASDAQ going above 25,000 for the first time and keeping on going.
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And my question to you, if you want to prepare yourself for a bigger answer next
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week, very good.
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Is there now a bubble in tech, big tech in the United States of America?
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Or are we just in the early stages of something that we've never seen before,
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i.e.
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a market that just keeps on carrying on because AI keeps on carrying on as well?
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I just think that when companies, a group of companies,
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collectively are spending nearly a trillion dollars on capex in one year i
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don't know can it be
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justified can their share prices stay where they are yeah it's a it's an
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interesting
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one because
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uh mr shapiro myself we had a we had a conversation today and and i said i
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told him i need to eat some humble pie um he says why he said well i often diss you
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because
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you know, I mean, it's a mutual friend.
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And you know he is absolutely love for these.
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He's these AI semiconductors.
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I mean, it's just, I mean, it doesn't matter what the price, he'll just keep on
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buying them.
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Anyway, I told him, I have to eat some humble pie because over the past three
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weeks,
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I've started to venture into dabbling around with some bit of coding because I
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do code a bit.
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But I dabbled into these AI models, and not just your CLAUDs, your chat GPTs,
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you know, some of these local models.
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So I'm starting to use them now as I work on your computer.
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And I think I got to about day two,
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and then suddenly this AI started talking to me, and he said, well, Scott,
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you need to look at your hardware.
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We can't run these things that you want to be doing.
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I said, Andreas, well, wait a minute.
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I've got a monster of a PC.
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What do I need?
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No, you need, let's call it 32 gig RAM.
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Yes. I remember two, three years ago when I bought a PC and also a laptop,
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I sort of flinched when it said, well, you'll need about,
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let's call it for every eight gig you'll need, it'll cost you about eight, 900
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grand.
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Let's call it 1,000 Rand.
18:53
Lindsay, 32 gig will cost you now 15,000 to 16,000 Rand.
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Just a little bit of RAM.
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That's not any graphic.
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What are you doing with this, Carl?
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You said you're playing around.
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What are you playing around with?
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Is it just to test it just because you're curious or because it's something that is
19:12
good for PSG wealth?
19:14
No, the latter.
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The latter.
19:16
But also, you know, I love my...
19:18
My statistical models, I run a lot of screeners.
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And you can actually use these, let's call it models.
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And when I say models, Claude,
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they've got a few models in one called Sonnet.
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And the one is Opus.
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And the one that created Havoc a few weeks ago is Mythos.
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But you also get local models that run on your computer.
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You can...
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You can train it.
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You can train it to run some of your spreadsheets, you know, run around some of
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your screeners,
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and it's quite powerful.
19:58
um it's not that does it do stuff that you i'm sorry i'm curious here because i've
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had this sort of same conversation with that person you were talking about
20:07
earlier on and what does he use it for um it's not as sophisticated as what you're
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doing but my
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question to you is does it do what you you did before yourself manually as a human
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being better
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and quicker or does it do something else?
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Does it do exactly what I've just said?
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Plus, it's...
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changes things it makes you think about oh wait a second i should maybe do it this
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way and it's changed my opinion on this
20:34
if you see where i'm going with this yeah yeah originally originally you know the
20:40
model sort of executed what you ask it to do
20:42
but but some of these models now actually improve some
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of my my my own models it will look at at certain things well you need to look at
20:51
this.
20:51
You need to look at those.
20:55
It's really improving.
20:58
It's making my work quicker and definitely more efficient.
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But do not for one second think it's something you go sit and say, well, there
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we go.
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It's like a chat GPT and say, make my life more sufficient and five minutes later it
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is.
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It's not.
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And where I want to get to, it firstly takes a lot of time to train these models,
21:18
but that I've got.
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I don't have kids in the house anymore.
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So that commodity I still got.
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But the thing was the hardware resources.
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And you just, for the life of it,
21:34
cannot run these models without the proper hardware resources.
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And then I realized, wait a minute.
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Me, Scott, just a general guy from some point of Africa,
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if I'm struggling to start doing the things that…
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that I need to be executed, then a lot of companies out there,
21:57
they're sitting with way bigger problems.
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And that's why we've got such a shortage in these chips.
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And my question was, when I started putting my mind around this, I was
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thinking, well, okay,
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yes, eventually the shortage will deplete because there will be less
22:16
demand and more...
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supply.
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And then I realized, well, how's that going to change?
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Because the same morning on the local radio station, the commentator,
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they did a poll and they did a poll with teenagers and they
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actually said, well, which subscription, cell phone subscription, do you use the
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most?
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And I was thinking, well, there were...
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If you're talking about this, I was thinking, yeah, it'll be something like a
22:56
Spotify or
22:58
maybe YouTube, you know, there's something.
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No, it is AI, AI, your chat GPTs.
23:05
The teenagers these days are throwing themselves towards the chat GPTs, the
23:12
Claudes, the co-pilots,
23:14
the Gemini.
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That's it, that's it.
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And the deeper they, and this is only about the start.
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I mean, they're only starting this process.
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This is not a thing that is sort of a product that's at the end
23:29
of its life.
23:30
It's at the beginning of its life cycle.
23:32
The teenagers are now starting to switch their Spotify's and their Instagram's
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and TikTok's for AI.
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And that's crazy to think.
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It's crazy to think how's this shortage going to catch up?
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And then it brings me back to the likes of the Navidias, the AMD.
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We saw AMD today.
23:52
I mean, wow, gee, what a
23:59
Set of results, first of all, and then performance in the pre-market.
24:03
I don't know what it's done in the real market, but it must be quite good from the
24:07
way you're talking enthusiastically.
24:09
What has it done?
24:11
About 5%, 6% higher?
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More?
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I'm actually I'm putting it in now to see what's the current because earlier today
24:16
was let's just have a full sec.
24:18
Here we go.
24:23
I can hear you typing.
24:26
I'm not that good.
24:29
Okay, let's see.
24:31
There we go.
24:32
AMD.
24:33
AMD.
24:35
It is up 17.5%.
24:38
Get out.
24:39
Yes, yes.
24:42
And I thought, David, I mean, I'm...
24:49
About to eat some humble pie.
24:51
I will be talking about Shapiro now.
24:52
Yeah.
24:53
Yeah.
24:54
Yeah.
24:54
I am really really Really still know why the process there and and I've done it
25:00
over the shorter,
25:02
too So so I think for the listeners out there
25:03
I'm not going to be rushing out and now going to buy your AMDs and the VDS.
25:08
They are trading at elevated levels, for sure.
25:11
Really elevated levels.
25:12
Yes, but this is the point about Shapiro, and I don't want to talk about him too
25:18
much, except with a lot of affection,
25:20
because he's a riddle wrapped up in a conundrum.
25:23
Because he's old school, right?
25:25
He learned his trade on the JSC floor in the old way,
25:30
it was trading or Portfolio Management 101.
25:37
If a forward P or the current P of a company in this particular sector is this,
25:43
historically it goes down.
25:45
I said to him the other day, if your father looked at your portfolio now for
25:52
you and your clients, he'd probably be horrified, wouldn't he?
25:54
He said, well, yeah, some of these things are too high.
25:54
And I said, well, at what point do you get out?
25:57
He said, I'm not going to get out until I... And Until it starts to turn.
26:04
In other words, just go with the flow.
26:06
It doesn't matter why it's going up, it's just going up.
26:09
And he and Viv Govender, the other person I speak to, I speak to the three of them
26:13
together,
26:14
they're both completely into this now, so much so that I don't think that they can
26:19
get out,
26:19
and they've been quite right in that regard.
26:22
And as you said, you ate humble pie.
26:24
But what I'm saying is he's sort of not thrown away,
26:28
but he's pushed aside what he learnt and has adapted.
26:32
to what is going on.
26:33
He's adapted to the current situation.
26:36
Yeah.
26:37
Yeah, it's but it's same goes for my gold call.
26:42
I mean, I had the same conversation today.
26:44
I told them
26:47
I started buying gold again yesterday because it's definitely that the business
26:52
thesis,
26:54
very similar to the business thesis for the semiconductors, the business thesis
26:58
for gold is still there.
27:00
And I think Durban would have put deep.
27:01
If we can maybe bring it back for a second to some of the...
27:05
Its trading update came out today or it was...
27:09
I saw an announcement early this morning.
27:12
Correct, correct.
27:13
They did a quarterly update, which is a quite strange force at African company,
27:18
because African companies usually do six months, but they did a quarterly update up
27:23
to the end of
27:24
31st of March and I don't think it's going to be any surprises that it really looked
27:29
good.
27:29
But what stood out for me...
27:31
was a few things in this update.
27:33
So firstly, when you look at their oil and sustainable cost, and they're still one of
27:39
the more expensive mines,
27:41
oil and sustainable cost just over $2,000 per ounce.
27:45
They mentioned that they're sitting with zero debt now,
27:49
and they're actually now in the position to cover their total capex with just
27:55
normal cash flow
27:57
as it stands.
27:59
I wonder when it was that they could last say that, if ever.
28:01
Ever.
28:02
I don't think ever, ever that that was the case.
28:06
And that tells me that, firstly, these companies are pumping cash.
28:12
And I would not be surprised if these, let's call it gold, remain at these
28:18
current levels.
28:20
And that'll go for some of the PGMs because you saw Sabania Stillwater, very
28:24
similar update as well today.
28:26
I mean, wow, what a move for them as well.
28:30
It's a very similar story where they're sitting with such a massive amount of free
28:36
cash flow now.
28:38
If they don't start to employ this cash,
28:40
we're going to start seeing massive dividends being paid by these miners,
28:46
which also is something that…
28:48
Both our grey hair combined is never seen.
28:52
The rules have all changed in the last 12 months.
28:56
It's been great fun and it will continue to be so.
28:59
It hasn't ended yet.
29:00
I mean, what is it now?
29:00
It's only May, for goodness sake.
29:03
Skunk, I'm going to have to give you some numbers because we've been rambling on
29:09
very, very enjoyably and I think very intelligently as well.
29:11
It's surprising.
29:13
You've actually got my mind going today.
29:15
16.42 is the dollar round.
29:17
British pound against the round is 22.32.
29:18
The round in the ascendancy against the, what have we got here?
29:24
Yeah, a 1% move for the dollar down against the round.
29:29
That's the way I should put it.
29:31
The dollar has fallen against the round.
29:33
The British pound 0.8% weaker at 22.32.
29:37
And the Euro rand is 19.30.
29:41
That's a 0.7% fall for the Euro against the mighty currency.
29:45
The Euro dollar is around about 1.18.
29:48
For some reason, my screen cuts off the last two figures, so you can tell it's a
29:54
cheaper model I'm looking at here.
29:56
But anyway,
29:58
the dollar has gone from around about 1.1650 a couple of days ago now to 1.18
30:05
Euro dollar,
30:07
that is.
30:09
OK, gold price is doing nicely, thank you very much indeed, just below 4,700.
30:10
It's up around about 3% on the day.
30:13
The platinum price, also a really good performer, 4.8% up, 2,070,
30:19
and that's nearly $100 better.
30:21
And palladium is up nearly $50 at $15.62, up 3.25%.
30:26
Now the oil price.
30:27
You turn your screen off for a second and you don't know where it's gone.
30:31
Crude oil now for the West Texas brand.
30:33
94.91 down 7.2 percent Brent crude 101.86 down 7.3
30:40
percent these were both down around about 12 percent at lunchtime so it is
30:46
I suppose five percent better off it's mid-range the chartist will be very
30:53
excited about where it closes um
30:55
where else what else we got copper doing very well indeed as well up three and a
31:00
third percent six dollars fourteen and a bit per
31:02
pound that's someone I look at.
31:02
Right.
31:03
Other ones, all-important bond markets.
31:05
South African 10-year had a great day.
31:07
23.5 basis points down for the yield.
31:10
That's up for the bond price.
31:11
But 8.61 is the yield.
31:14
The U.S.
31:15
10-year, it got to about 4.45 yesterday, I think it was.
31:20
It's now 4.36%. That's a six-basis point fall from the close yesterday.
31:25
And the 30-year, incidentally, got through 5% yesterday for the first time for quite
31:31
a while.
31:31
S&P 500 futures, all-time record high,
31:35
7,370 for the June delivery S&P 500 futures and Bitcoin,
31:42
in case you want to stay.
31:43
It's had a lovely month or so, 81,500, which has barely changed on the day.
31:49
Skulk, shall we look at some of the ups and downs on the JSE?
31:51
Let's do.
31:54
Your top five.
31:56
Okay, so let's use the top five.
32:00
It's no surprise.
32:01
Savania Stillwater, as I just mentioned, that was up 11.3%.
32:07
We've got Impala Platinum.
32:08
That is up 10% for today.
32:11
Harmony up 10%.
32:12
Goldfields up 8.8%.
32:14
Turbine Rura Purdeep, 8.3%.
32:18
See the trend there?
32:19
All three precious metals.
32:21
Even if you go beyond that, Valterra, 8.1%.
32:24
Pan African Resources, 7.4%.
32:27
Northern Platinum 6.3%.
32:29
And the list goes on all the diggers just over there.
32:34
On the downside, again, no surprise.
32:36
We've got Sasol.
32:37
That is down 7.7% for today.
32:41
We've got Exaro.
32:43
That is down 3%.
32:45
Tungela.
32:46
That is down 2.8%.
32:50
What's it?
32:52
HCI.
32:52
2% and Cup.
32:53
Also 2%.
32:54
And Azabush.
32:55
That's down 2%.
32:56
but just Just note that that's an ex-ZEV story.
32:59
Great result yesterday.
33:00
I don't know if you saw that, Lindsay.
33:02
No, which ones?
33:04
And as a bush.
33:05
No, I didn't see that.
33:06
And that's with me stopping drinking as well.
33:08
That's extraordinary.
33:10
Well, we saw the results in the previous set of results because they actually
33:17
mentioned that
33:19
the beer volumes, specifically alcoholic beer volumes, drastically moved down.
33:23
Just clearly show that people are not drinking.
33:25
drinking beer anymore, but this time around it just shows things just change
33:31
around the revenue was up something at six percent
33:33
The the hips had quite a quite a solid beat on the upside when I say solid beat
33:39
was something like
33:41
96 US cents versus something in the 80s which would put a forecast but the one
33:47
thing that stood out for me Yes
33:49
was where they mentioned that the the beer volumes that increased again increased
33:54
And the non-beer volumes actually decrease.
33:57
I wonder if it's non-alcoholic or low-alcoholic beer that is boosting the
34:04
volumes or if it's just going back to
34:06
traditional, let's go out and feel nice for a couple of hours.
34:09
Skulk, did I tell you, not on air but off air,
34:13
about a well-known fund manager who went into the booze market,
34:17
has made a big bet on booze about six months ago?
34:20
Did I tell you about this fellow and exactly what his rationale was?
34:24
and exactly what he bought.
34:26
That was picky, wasn't it?
34:28
Yeah, OK.
34:30
It is.
34:31
It's an interesting one.
34:32
This particular fellow going into...
34:34
Not beer.
34:35
He's going into producers of spirits and high-end spirits as well.
34:40
You know, if you go out for a bottle of tequila, you don't buy the Jose Cuervo
34:45
white brand.
34:47
You go out and spend another 200, 300 grand on a bottle for...
34:51
I don't know.
34:52
Bye.
34:53
a premium Dom Pedro, something like that, or
34:57
Patron. So that is true.
35:00
And there's a big correlation.
35:03
Sorry, I'm interrupting now because the same goes for Diageo.
35:07
I mean, people tend to think that Diageo is just a spirits company.
35:10
It's not.
35:11
I mean, to me, there's not a big difference between a person that buys a
35:18
Cartier watch versus a
35:20
person that drinks Johnny Walker Blue.
35:22
And that's...
35:22
I think maybe the reasoning behind Big is, well, not to put words in his mouth, but I
35:28
think we had this conversation.
35:30
Yeah, we did, and it was also about COVID destocking and all that sort of thing.
35:32
So anyway, it's interesting to see if he's right.
35:34
He usually is eventually anyway.
35:36
Skalk, I think that's it.
35:39
Where to from here?
35:40
Just quickly where to from here on goal because we didn't concentrate on it.
35:43
You hinted at what you'd been doing.
35:46
I thought we would come down to around about 4,400, 4,450.
35:50
on the leg down we've just seen, didn't get there.
35:53
It got within $70, $80 of it, I think.
35:57
So where to now?
35:59
Has the frothy money been flushed out and the serious money like yours now coming to
36:06
the fore again?
36:08
Yeah, so let's use the fundamentals first.
36:09
I mean, we've often had this conversation where I say, well,
36:13
if we do see Project Freedom being a...
36:17
massive success.
36:19
We know the playbook from you.
36:20
We know the playbook that Trump is going to play is now let's try to get the oil
36:27
price done.
36:29
Let's get inflation under control and put some pressure on the new governor to get
36:33
interest rates as low as possible.
36:35
That's going to put further pressure on the dollar.
36:36
And in an environment where there's pressure on the dollar, even upward
36:42
pressure over the shorter term periods on inflation,
36:44
I would not be selling my gold.
36:46
Gold fields is one we mentioned earlier, but you like your technicals.
36:49
I know you do.
36:50
And so I've been monitoring the likes of gold fields,
36:55
and it dropped back from the, let's call it,
36:58
900 to 50-rand levels to your early 700-rand levels.
37:05
But it stuck to this 200-day moving average like glue.
37:11
You can see every time it hits this 200,
37:14
day moving average it just is bounce and bounce and bounce and yesterday you could
37:21
see for the fourth day in a row
37:23
it just could not break it formed that very very nice foundation on the 200 day
37:28
moving average and i
37:30
said well that's it i'm i'm getting back in so yes
37:32
i do think that um when i look at the gold it's going to be interesting to see you
37:38
know this this
37:40
4700 i think if there's going to be further pressure on on the dollar Yeah.
37:43
which I do think could be the case, I would not be surprised if we go and test
37:50
that $5,000 again.
37:52
We've had it.
37:54
We tested it.
37:56
We broke it earlier this year.
37:58
And I think the gold bulls might be sharpening the teeth to go and retest
38:01
that $5,000.
38:03
Very good.
38:04
I'm writing that down as we speak.
38:06
What's your name, Skunk?
38:07
Low.
38:09
Sixth of the fifth, $5,000.
38:11
Okay.
38:12
Thank you very much.
38:13
I don't disagree with you.
38:14
Sculpto is a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town, and that was
38:21
the five o'clock shadow.
38:23
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38:28
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