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NFL Week 5 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites Podcast presented by DraftKings. The crown
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: is yours. Your Favorites duo is back. I'm Brandon Kravitz
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: joined by Stucky Kendra out on a Jags bender for today,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: but we got plenty to get to and we'll catch
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: her up on Thursday's episode.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Today, we've got.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Our plant the Flag games for week five, a breakdown
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: of the needle moving storylines, and of course the main
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: event on Tuesday's Evans Tuesday primer. Stucky the shirt has
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: been purchased. This goes back a couple of lost bets
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: ago to you. I'm getting dog walked over here with
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: these head to head bets with you. It's I don't
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: know if you can see this. It says the cutest
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: pumpkin in the patch. So I kind of mit you
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: in the middle with the stuff that you sent over.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: But credit to you. You've been killing me in these yep.
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: Now you gotta about the Falcons money line against the bill,
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: so I'll put some more money in your pocket. Oh,
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: I didn't even mention we buried the lead. We hit
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: our our parlay because we bullied you into a bunch
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: of picks.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: You didn't like and ironically enough, because I'm not just
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: going to place a bet that I don't wholeheartedly believe in.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: I'm glad that the Favorites as a group that we
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: won our parlay.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: This was the first.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Week that I didn't put the parlay in the app
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: on my individual account.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: I actually did not.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: I didn't financially benefit, but I hope that all of
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: you did. I had two of the three. I was
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: on the Rams minus three and a half. The Giants
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: plus the six and a half was my personal play,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: so I was on that. I just couldn't get to
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: the window on the Jags. I was big on the
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: forty nine ers last week, but that was a prove
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: it game for me. Jacksonville showed me a little something
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: in that one. By the way, how'd the solo pod go?
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Your solo podcasting careers taken off?
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: From what I hear, I.
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: Got good feedback on it, so people seem to enjoy it.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: I love listening to myself talk so and I can ramble,
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it was it went okay. I don't know.
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: It's hard to judge a solo pod though, Like when
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: if you listen back yourself because you agree with everything
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: you say, it's your own thoughts, and there's no one
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: else to say anything.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: So I just always end up going down in some
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: hole that, like, I have a hard time digging my
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: way back out of. But I don't think people out
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: there that are listening realize how hard it is to
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: do what you did on Sunday night, to just go
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: thirty minutes with no feedback at all on the shit
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: that you're throwing out there.
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I had no notes, no outline. I decided
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: to do it last minute, just as soon as the
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: game ended, and as soon as the Raiders game ended,
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: which was just a gut punch because I had the Raiders.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: I was like, oh my.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: God, you had a good Sunday, though, Is that part
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: of the reason. I mean, you were probably feeling it
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I had a good Sunday. It could have been
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: a big one. I mean, just like last Sunday with
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: the Rams, like the games like that are such big
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: swings for your day and hopefully they just even out
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: of the course of the year. But I just haven't
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: got any I haven't got a single game in the
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: last minute to go my way. They've all gone against me.
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: Anyone that's a close coin flip has gone against me,
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: but that's that's what happens sometimes in the NFL. But
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: looking forward to this week, I mean, hopefully the games
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: are better than last night. Last night was horrendous. I mean,
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: I thought the reps were really bad. I thought the
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: Jets and the Bengals both got jobbed. Fortunately it didn't
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: matter for the Bengals, they just got dominated. It wouldn't
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: have mattered regardless. I'm worried about the Bengals quit factor,
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: like after they got down, like just all of the
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: the body language, the bickering. It's bad. It's bad now,
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: like part of me wants to potentially buy low. And
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: then this week off back to back twenty five plus
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: point losses, well.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: For you to this point, what's that worked out well
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: for you to this point?
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's usually how I look to bet
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: the NFL, and they've looked they played a Flores defense,
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: the Broncos defense, like they're gonna get a break this
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: week at home two against the Lions, who don't generate
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: nearly as much pressure as either one of those teams
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: who are like one to two in pressure rate. But
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: I feel it's just if they get behind the defense
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: is so bad, like the Lions is still gonna be
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: able to gash through them. But at ten I could
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: only look their way. I thought the Jets did legit
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: I didn't have any money on the game. I kind
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: of liked the Dolphins in the over which both hit
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: didn't play either, but I thought the Jets legitimately got
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: jobbed and they should have won that game. If you
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: look at net success rate for the week, so of
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: the teams that won, the luckiest team the two luckiest
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: teams were the rate are the Bears and the luckiest
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: was the Dolphins. They were like minus fifteen percent net
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: success rate. I mean, you look at that game. They
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: got out gained four o four to three hundred, the
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: yards per play seven point one to five point four
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: the Jets. The fumbles were killer. The Jets didn't score
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: in either red zone trip, they lost the turn of
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: a battle three nothing, and the Jets had thirteen penalties
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: for one hundred and one yards. So I know the
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: Jets deserve to win that game, and they were a
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: bit unlucky and got jobbed by the refs there. But
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: both those teams are very bad. It was but I
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: did think the Jets got job. I'm looking to fade
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: Miami this week in Carolina. That might be my plant
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: flag game off a fraudulent win short week now no
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill going up against a zone heavy defense where
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: Tuoa can really struggle against and you can really slow
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: down that offense. So that might be my plant to
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: flag game. But looking forward to better games than what
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: we saw last night. That was a rough Monday night doubleheader.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Not all double headers are created equal. That was definitely
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: one that I think we could have lived without. I
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: had the dual screen going, and I didn't really enjoy
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: much of it outside of the fact that my Dolphins
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: did get their first win of the season. You lose
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: your star wide receiver in the process. I think in
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: some ways it can actually help the way that they
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: operate offensively, but we'll get to that in a seconds.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Before I move off completely of how you've just dog
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: walked me with these bets, I want to point out
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: something because there's I'm firmly of the belief I'm a
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: generally optimistic person.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: You either win in sports.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Betting or you learn, and when you get smashed, whether
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: it's in a head to head with a podcast partner
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: or friend, or on your betting accounts. If you're not
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: taking notes of why it happened, then you're doing yourself
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: no favors. You astutely pointed out this weekend teams that
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: lost by thirty plus last week went two and zero
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: against the spread. That was until the Bengals with the
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: bed on Monday Night football. And so I kind of
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: have to take this one on the chin. I overreacted,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: and it's the worst thing that you can do in
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: NFL betting. And it's not even about losing units off
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: of it. Because I didn't bet on the Washington Commanders.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: That was the biggest head to head a battle that
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: you and I had. I just lost an opportunity to
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: bet on what was clearly a sharp side with the
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons. You have to be willing to stomach these things,
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: and I think that that is the balance.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: There are some teams.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Out there that you just simply shouldn't trust your money with.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about why. Tennessee is probably their example number
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: one on that. But after a blowout loss, if we're
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: talking about one bad week, a blowout or just an
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: off game, that's not an indication of a team that
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: you need to put in bet jail.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: So lesson learned for me. One of the changes that
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: I made.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Off of this stuckey, and this is partially thanks to
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: chat GPT, I did ask what they're looking at as
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: far as a margin of victory cap the numbers that
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: I generate myself, which are not Gospel people. I'm very
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: new at the power rating system, as evident with my
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Panthers rating from a week ago, but I have a
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: cap to margin of victory now at twenty one, and
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: honestly I'm thinking about even lowering that.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: But that was one of the things that I adjusted
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: for myself.
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: Hey, I'm happy that you're taking the time to try
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: and learn and improve and iterate on what you're working on.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: That's all you can do. And yeah, are like, I
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: don't have I don't put any team in bet jail,
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: as evidence by my love in the past for betting
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: on the Titans. My best win of the week was
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: the Titans not covering and me not having money any
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: money on it. But they're historically I think I've probably
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: made out better by not doing that. But historically there
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: usually is a team maybe two that we'll just never cover.
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: The market will never catch up. It'll they'll be the
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: sharps will still bet them. I mean, I'm going back
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: like ten fifteen years there were Browns teams fifteen, fifteen,
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: twenty years ago. A lot of Browns teams over the
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: years that were so bad that would never cover, that
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: would always take money and then shit the bed. So
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: that there usually is a team maybe two, and it
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: has been the Titans for under Callahan over the past
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: two years. I mean, they're three and eighteen against the spread.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: It's that that is stunning, like a stunning number with
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: an efficient market like the NFL, because the market will
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: keep dropping them and they just still keep not covering.
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: It's it's stunning. So yeah, like I bet Jail, I
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: think you can reserve for like I don't do it,
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: but it probably would have helped me in the past.
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: But you can reserve for like that one team that
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: is just isn't covering and you're just like, all right,
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: there's this team is there's just something seriously wrong, And
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: I think with the Titans it's injuries, but it's also
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: it's just a stat at the coaching, Like the coaching
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: is that bad that it's it makes everything even worse.
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: Than it already is for Tennessee.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: I think the thing in looking back, if you're going
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: to put a team in bet jail, I think it
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: has to be a team that you you just have
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: to realize you have to cut your losses. You've bet
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: on them for multiple weeks in a row and they
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: continue to lose your money. I mean, you do have
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: to get to a point where you're just not that
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: stubborn about it and you continue betting on teams that
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: aren't winning for you. Where I look back in Atlanta
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: is I was on Atlanta plus three and a half
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: a week before they got blown out.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: So it's not like this team cost me any money.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: I just decided that I hated them, and that's Honestly,
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: this sounds so counterintuitive, but you'll probably agree with it.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: One of the worst things you can do is an
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: NFL better is watch the games. I mean, it really does.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: It just throws you off because it's hard not to.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Football is such an emotional sport. It's hard not to
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: emotionally react to what you see.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: I disagree. I mean, I think for a lot of people, yes,
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: but I mean I've watched every snap of red zone
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: since it's like I've never missed the snap of the
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: NFL for you, from start to finish on a Sunday
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: of my life.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: Stay on red Zone.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: By the way, I think it's an important note for
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: sports betters out there.
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I zone on, and then I'll have I have
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: three other screens that I'll have other games on, so
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: I've like I usually have the red Zone and unless
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: it's like a really good game or the Raven sometimes
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: it's a really good game, I'll have that on my
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: main and then there's two. I have two, but a
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: lot of times it's Red Zone on top, and then
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: I'll have two games that I want to watch underneath,
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: and then by my laptop that I'm rotating through games.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: I like to keep trying, like number one, the impact
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: of injuries. Looking at schematic stuff. I mean, like, for example,
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: the Chargers right now, I don't want to bet on
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: them against Washington because I don't I don't know what
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: they're gonna do about their offensive line. It was a
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: disaster against now the Giants have a really good front,
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: but they I mean they once they lost Joe All,
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: I mean, they had Austin Deculus in there. Left tackle
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: Bradley Boseman's been the worst center in the league. You
• 11:40
  Speaker 3: already lost your right tackle before the season, or you're
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: left tackle before the season, and then you have to
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: move all over. That's a mess. Like so and Beckdam
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: wasn't playing. I don't know what they're gonna do. They
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: might take this salar and kick them out the left tackle.
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: If they get becked them back, they might replace their
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: center this week. But Herbert had no chance, and it
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: led to two picks that led to two giant scores
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: that both of them are almost picked sixes. But like
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: seeing stuff like that, I think is really beneficial for me.
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: But I agree like that it can lead if you're
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: more of a casual better it can lead to some
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: of those overreactions you know when you're watching.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: And I think specifically with that, like when we're talking
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: about blowout. It's not necessarily I'm certainly not sitting here
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: advocating don't watch the NFL, but when it comes to
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: those those extreme results, it's hard for that to not
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: skew your opinion of what it is you're watching.
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: A lot of people are going to look at get
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: team the wins by thirty and they're like, oh, this
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: team's a wagon, I'm betting them next week, or a
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: team that loses by thirty, then you're you watch them
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: look horrendous the entire game. You're naturally going to say,
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: why would I want to put my money on that
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: team after I just saw how poorly they look, which
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: is more difficult than just looking at a box score
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: and seeing like, oh, they lost by thirty. If you
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: actually watched it, it can be more difficult. But I
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: don't care. I mean, I've seen enough NFL and week
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: to week. I mean, like, look, we just saw Atlanta.
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: We just saw Michael Pennix go against the Panthers defense,
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: which is not great by any stretch spotifyve defense. He
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: looked like he never played football before.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: He looked like that was the problem that was and
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: that that's the issue specifically that I'm pointing out as
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: I watched the guy that couldn't get the ball to
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: the twenty yard line.
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: But I've seen it enough. It's one week. Next week,
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: what did you go twenty and twenty five or three
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: twelve two touchdowns? That's that's just that's just the nature
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: of the NFL. Like the Chargers looked unstoppable lose at
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: the Giants, and there's there's countless examples of that happening.
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I would agree with you that it can
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: lead into that overreaction if you're if you're watching, but uh,
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: you just got to keep in your keep in the
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: back of your head like it's a week to week league.
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: Don't overreact too much. So uh yeah, but that's I've
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: been doing it a long time, so I don't. I
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: don't really get too higher or too low on teams.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: The Favorites is sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership with DraftKings,
• 14:07
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• 14:32
  Speaker 1: So before we get to the sides, let's talk about
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: the main dish, the three top stories across the league,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: moving lines Tyreek Hill on the shelf for a while
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: after dislocated me from last night. How does that change
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: your perception of the Miami Dolphins moving forward, if at all.
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, I thought he'll started to look okay the
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: past two weeks had a little bit more juice. This
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: team's bad, though, I mean, so you just lose one
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: more weapon, makes them easier to defend. You don't to
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: worry as much about the deep threat you really want to.
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: The Jets don't have the ideal defense schematically that you
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: want to use against the Dolphins. But they still, I mean,
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: they dominated that game. They were ne plus fifteen success right,
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: a fumble at the one lost turnover batt of three
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: nothing got crushed and like they should have won that game. Still,
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: the Dolphins are a bad team. I mean, like their
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: centers playing well. The rest of the offensive line is
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: a mess. Now you don't have Hill. Their defense is bad,
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: like they're anything in a lot of pressure, which is
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: supposed to be their strength. Their secondary is one of
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: the worst in the league. So this is a really
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: bad team. And it cut like it's unfortunate because I
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: thought you could have gotten something for Hill, right, I
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: thought that what the Dolphins should do this year is
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: just like fire sale. You gotta start this over and
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: so you're not going to get anything for Hill now.
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I bet the Panthers this week. It's number one.
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: Short week off of a fraudulent win. Panthers all off
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: of a blowout loss, right trying to buy low on
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: Carolina Carolina kind of a fraudulent like it was that
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: was closer than the final score indicated like they got.
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: They they blew that game on special teams. I mean basically,
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: the Patriots scored two touchdowns on punt returns, they missed
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: a field the Pants missed a field goal, they missed
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: extra point. They were minus eighteen in special point special
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: teams points and over the first twenty minutes of that game.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: So I think that Bryce Young should be comfortable here.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: A lot of opportunities downfield, like this Dolphins defense is
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: really really bad. I mean, the Jets just put a
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: four hundred yards of offense, So I think Bryce Young
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: could do enough. The Panthers did have offensive line injuries,
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: but Kate Mazes looked good at center for they had
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: their guard who's pretty good is on ir They brought
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: in this practice squad player to start after Zabala, their
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: backup got hurt. I don't know why, but then they
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: put in Brady Christensen, who was their highest graded player
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: last week, so he looked good at guard. So, like
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: I'm not, their offensive line still looks solid and that's
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: why the strongest points. So like the Panthers offensive line
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: is world's apart. And then schematically the Panthers, they're going
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: to play a ton of zone, which is what you
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: need to do against this two offense, and he's really
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: struggling to see the field right now against zone defenses.
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: So I like the match up in the spot. I
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: played Carolina cheap minus one out there for this week,
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: and it's gonna be a long year for the Dolphins.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it feels like Carolina is the right side. I
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: do think that in some ways this can actually help
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins offense operate. Tua tends to want to forced
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: feed Tyreek Hill, and he's just not really that kind
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: of quarterback. He's got to get the ball out quick,
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: he's got to spread the ball around. I don't think
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: we should sleep on the impact that Darren Waller had
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: for this team in the red zone. I was kind
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: of surprised.
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: He actually really good.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: The red zone stats for the Dolphins are awesome. The
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: Dolphins now ring second in terms of scoring percentage in
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: the red zone.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: So I think the having Darren Waller helps.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: That's a new thing for them. But Oli Gordon gives
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: them a little bit of toughness in between the tackles
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: that they haven't had in the last couple of years.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: So I do think that.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: They can operate like perhaps more of a ground and
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: pound just get the ball out quick in the screen
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: game type of team and not have to worry about all.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: We got to get Tyreek Hill the ball deep down
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: the field so that we can satisfy our Devia wide receiver.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: There could be a benefit to this. I'm not making
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: a case for betting the Dolphins this week. The Panthers
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: do feel like the right side, but I wouldn't be
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: surprised if the Dolphins offense continued to look similar to
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: what it looked like last night.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the problem. The problem is that you want to
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: become a ground and pound team. Their offensive liner now
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: is in rough shape. I mean, you got rookies on
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: the left side who aren't I mean, Paul is playing okay.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: Their left guard is playing really poorly. Your right side
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: of your offensive line is kind of a mess. So like,
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: that's that's hard to do when your offensive line is
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: in rough shape. They have some injuries, so yeah, I imagine.
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: But also in a short week after losing Hill, that's
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: not ideal either, right, like one of your key cogs
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: and now you're on a short week heading on the road.
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I'll be curious to see what McDaniel.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Like.
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: I think McDaniel is still solid. I don't like. I
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: think that he's kind of lost it as a head coach.
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: I like he seems checked out. I don't know, like
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: he's not as engaged as he once was. But I
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: think he would still be a very good offensive coordinator somewhere.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he definitely has lost a little bit of that humor.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: He's just kind of leaning into the sad dork vibe.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Are you are you buying the renewed drama around Philly? Yes,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: they won, Yes they covered, they're undefeated. But Aj Brown
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: another dismal stat line two catches seven yards doesn't seem
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: to be impacting what the Eagles want to do. But
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: passing wise, I mean, this team is bad. They are
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: there's no explosion in the offense. They were in dead
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: last and passing offense. That's behind the Tennessee Titans. I
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: mean they still score, But is this an issue for
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: you moving forward to you just simply throw it out.
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I think the issue is the offensive coordinator. Like
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: it hasn't cost him yet, but I mean they should
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: have lost to the Rams. They got to play the
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: Bucks with all all the Bucks injuries, but they went
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: Hurts went oh eight for zero yards. The offense had
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: negative nine yards in the second half. Now granted that
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: that includes a thirty yard safety. Negative thirty yard safety
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: they took at the end of the game. Okay, let's
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: give them twenty yards for the second half, and then
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: against the Rams in the first half they had thirty
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: three yards. Yeah, I think the offensive coordinator, I think
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: is the issue. This is what I was worried about
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: coming into the year. Now it hasn't cost them yet, right,
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: you got to like, you got to play the Cowboys
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: and they're awful defense in week one. You know you
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: benefit you have that crazy comeback against the Rams, and
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: you know you got to play the Bucks with a
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: bunch of injuries. But they could have easily lost the game.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: They've had a couple like special teams touchdowns. Now a
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: lot of people are gonna yell about the yards per
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: play margin, like the Eagles are like one of the
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: worst teams in the NFL that you can't look at
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: the Eagles yards per play. They're kind of like a
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: service academy because like if they get to third and three,
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: like if they get to you know, one or two yards,
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: it's basically it's going to be a first down. Like,
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: so that's basically a successful play, whereas it's not for
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: other teams. So their yards for play is a funky case.
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: But I am concerned and look aj Brown, these guys
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: want to get the ball, like they're receivers, receivers, but
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: like these really good receivers by nature are like are
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: kind of divas, and they want the ball. They want
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: to be involved, Like they don't want to watch, you know,
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: just go out there and block the entire game. Watch
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: a rugby you know, your your toush pushes all day.
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: So yeah, there's got to there. It looks like there's
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: gonna be some growing frustration and we'll see it. Very
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: The Eagles are a very interesting team to like price
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: and like way, it's it's very bizarre, so they'll get
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: I will argue though, that I could argue that Lane
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: Johnson is their most important offensive player. I mean the
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: numbers with him without him have been insane, and he
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: was out in the second half. We'll see his status.
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: His status this week is huge because you're going up
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: against that Broncos front. The Broncos edge rushers have been
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: menaces all all season and all of last year. So
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: whether or not Lane Johnson plays this week, I haven't
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: seen an update. We'll get it's only Tuesday. We'll get
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: updates on the practice reports tomorrow. But his status is huge.
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: He's been super important. But yeah, I'm definitely worried about
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: the Eagles offense and like, let's see their upcoming schedule
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: because the weird thing is I now say to myself, well,
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: they just can't get behind. But the one time they
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: got behind, they were forced to throw they they did
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: move it and come back from eighteen downs.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: So they've won every which way already this season.
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: And the blocks are unsustainable, like they're not going to
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: keep blocking field goals and punts for touchdowns. But their
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: upcoming schedules, you know, home against the Broncos at the Giants,
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: at the Vikings home against the Giants. So yeah, I
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: mean they easily could be They could if they win
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: this week, they could get out to eight no. And
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: we still might have questions like they could be eight no.
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: This happened a couple of years ago though as well.
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: And you know this happens to the Steelers a lot.
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: Like you just have these teams that start eight to
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: no that have underlying issues because the schedule and just
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: late game luck is broken. Right, So I don't know
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: what we should get a better answer this week, because
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: the the Broncos do have a really really good defense
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: and uh so we'll see. But maybe Boonix just throws
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: the game away.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: But yeah, they're coming the coordinator.
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: For me, it's a play calling, the scheming, and yeah
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: that it looks like there's some some trouble brewing, which
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: is weird for a four and oh team, but that's
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: what happens with receivers when you don't get.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: Them the ball.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: Bronco's coming off of a blowout win, short week for them.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Those are kind of teams we look at and go,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know if we should back them.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: Maybe blow down.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, but I also can't. I can't back. I can't
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: play points of the Eagles right now exactly. It feels
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: like ales and a half, like are they the new Chiefs?
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: There's gonna win all these weird close games. And it
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: does in different ways.
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: It does feel like look.
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: Pretty, which is why if you if you're catching over
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: a field goal at plus four and a half with
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos on DK, I think right now, if
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: I had to bet the game, I'd be on Denver.
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: I agree, I agree, especially with Lane Johnson's status up
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: in the air.
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: The Ravens got dusted by the Chiefs. Lamargo's out with
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: an injury. Now they're one in three. They are still
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: minus three seventy to make the playoffs. I had to
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: take a triple look at this. Where do you sit
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: on that? That just seems like an insane number for
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: a team that could be without It looks like they're
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: gonna be without Lamar this week too. They could be
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: one in four by next week and and you're still
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: getting plus money on them to miss the playoffs.
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, one in four. I think all the teams that
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: have historically started one in four five for only five
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: percent have made the playoffs. Now you have to remember
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: a lot of teams that are one and four are
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: really bad teams. So and since twenty twenty one, like
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: the playoffs have expandits it was a little easier now,
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: like the Rams did it last year. And the Ravens
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: do have a really good roster when healthy. The problem
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: is right now, if you look at their depth chart
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: in June, they're projected depth chart right now, twelve of
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: those starters are hurt. So I don't know who's gonna
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: play this week, but a couple of their defenders are out.
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: Matta Bouche is out for the year. He's enormous. I've
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: talk about this all last week. He's an enormous piece
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: of the run defense. They're laid down pass rush. Kyle
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: van Ney is sorely missed. But now you've got injuries
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: to Rokwan Smith, Marlin Humphreyan. These are all Pro bowlers
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: that I'm listing. Ronnie Stanley got hurt last week. I mean,
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: Wiggins the corner got hurt, Lamar got hurt. Ricard their
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: Pro Bowl full back been hurt. I mean, I just
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: just goes on and on. The Rookies aren't playing well.
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: On defense, they're not ready to like fill in. The
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: whole defensive line is in shambles, like this looks this
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: is like the worst d in the league and that
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: it's I don't know many defenses that would like everyone
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: wants to crucify Zach Orr and Harball, like I don't
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: know how many defenses can survive having like five or
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: six Pro bowlers out of like it's it's gonna look
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: ugly like I toold. Now, the offensive line is definitely
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: an issue as well, like the guards are not playing
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: well and it's impacted Lamar who doesn't look the same.
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: But they needed to get back to their offense with
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: like Ricard and likely where they can pose a lot
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: of matchup prompts. I'm not worried about the offense other
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: than the health the defense. I A'm worried about to
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: the health. So yeah, I would not a million years
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: take them. Now. The good thing working for the Raids
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: is they could finish like eight and nine. They could
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: finish like nine to eight and win the division because
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: I mean, the Bengals look toast with Browning. The Browns
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: are probably gonna start Gabriel this week. I mean they're
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: I mean they're not going anywhere, And are the Steelers
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: gonna like the Steelers A probably gonna go like eight,
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: nine to nine and eight. Well'll probably go nine and eight,
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: that's Tomlin. So if this, if the Ravens can get
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: to like nine and eight, because of their division, they're
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: gonna have a shot to win the division without getting
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: to like eleven twelve. So that's working in the favorite.
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: The Burrow injury, the Browns mess, and I'm not sure
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: I fully bind it like the Steelers being a ten
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: plus win team yet so they could still win the division,
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: which is going to give them a little hope if
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: they can get healthy. But whatever that price is out
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: there to make the playoffs, I certainly would not get that.
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: Is three seventy. You can't do it.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: But it does feel like the wild card option is
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: starting to fly out the window. The Houston line for
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: this weekend opened at seven and a half. It's now
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: down to three and a half. That indicates a strong
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: feeling in the market that Lamar Jackson is not going
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: to play in this game.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: The defense is.
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: Kind of hedged a little bit. If I had a guess,
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: like it's I.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: Think he's worth about six six and a half, I
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: would think, and it's a four point difference.
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: I would argue seven. He's worth because number one, especially
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: one week like after getting hurt, because the offense is
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: going to look so like is there any is there
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: any bigger difference between quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Cooper Rush,
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: like on what they bring to the offense and how
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: you would design things.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: What's that it's a different sport.
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, completely different sports, So that he's worth seven, And
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: then this line doesn't also account for all the other
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: injuries for Baltimore. I think if he's ruled if Lamar
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: Jackson's ruled out, I don't know. I think this would
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: and depending on all the other Ravens injuries, but it
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: looks like they're going to be without a couple of guys,
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: I don't I just has to close under three, I think.
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: I don't know it. Those are harder to quantify the
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: non quarterback injuries. But if if if you told me
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: right now Lamar is out and I know about some
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: of the other injuries on the Ravens, I mean, I
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: think I would take I would certainly take the Texans
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: plus three and a half.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: A quick look at our ats standings report, the fade list,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: the bet jail, which you know, maybe we're limiting who
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: goes to prison, but no more unbeatens. We've got six
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: three and one teams against the spread out there Colts, Jags, Lions, Seahawks, Rams,
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: and Eagles. Thank you for all of your funding. Are
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: any of those ripe for a fade of the teams
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: I just mentioned Colts, Jags, Lions, Seahawks, Rams, and Eagles.
• 29:20
  Speaker 3: Um Colts. I was impressed with the Colts last week.
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: They got a bit unlucky. They were a snake pit Jags.
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: I love the Jags. I think the Jags still could
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: be undervalued. I bet the Jags on Monday number one.
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: Their special teams are really good. That's noteworthy. Their offense schematically,
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: their offensive defense are so much better. I love King Cohen.
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: Liam Cohen is a beast. Him going after Salah for
• 29:45
  Speaker 3: said keep my name out of your mouth because he
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: was accusing him of stealing signs. Although he said they
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: were like doing it in a legal way.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: You don't say that.
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: I know I'm saying these lords sons. You didn't call
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: him like a liar, but you still don't say that.
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: So yeah, but it wasn't as bad as like hey
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: or a cheater. He was trying to get him a compliment.
• 30:04
  Speaker 3: But yeah, that's not how you do it. So no,
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: I'm not looking to fait the Jags.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Who else that would be the Colts, Jags, Lions are interesting,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: but they have the Bengals, Seahawks, Rams, Eagles. Eagles might
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: be at the top of the list.
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Eagles for sure, and the Lions possibly coming up here.
• 30:33
  Speaker 3: Like because you have to remember they over the last
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: three weeks. Remember they remember they got they couldn't score
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: on Green Bay now was week one. But they then
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: they got the Bears, who at the time had their
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: entire defense was out right like it was a disaster,
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: and they haven't They weren't able to adjust like they
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: were playing with backup corners, backup linebackers. It was a disaster.
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: And going to Detroit playing them indoors. Then they got
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: the Ravens, and I talked about before this game with
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: the Ravens defense is in shambles, right, like it's horrific. Now,
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: they had a great game plan for it was the
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: best I've seen in containing Lamar Jackson. Right, it's not
• 31:14
  Speaker 3: a scene that gets a ton of pressure, but how
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: they approached him scrambling it was awesome. But they got
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: to play the Ravens defense, which was and then they
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: played the Browns and like the Browns if that game
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: was closer than the final score. I mean, the Browns
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: had three turnovers, was basically a pick six. And so
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: they've benefited from like a nice little stretch here of
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: getting some breaks that might be a little under the radar,
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: like the Ravens defensive injuries, the Bears defensive injuries, right,
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: the Browns being inft on offense. Now they have the Bengals,
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: They're at the Bengals. It's a it's a good spot
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: for the Bengals. Like, I know, it's short week, but
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: the Lions have the Chiefs on deck. Do the Do
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: the Bengals care? That's what I have to figure out,
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: Like because this is probably as low as you're going
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: to get on the Bengals. You just saw him get
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: blown out two weeks in a row. You saw Jake
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: Browning look horrendous. But they played Flores and the Broncos defense.
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: The Lions have a bunch of injuries in their secondary,
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: which I have to look into. Do they care? Like
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: I gotta try to get the vibes in that team,
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: because the vibes were so bad after they went down
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: and if they go down again, because the Lions still
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: should be able to score. Like the Bengals defense is atrocious,
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: but Lion lines are probably up their lines and Eagles.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: For me, I would say.
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are just impossible to fade.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: These guys As a combo, they cover the spread at
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: a rate of like seventy three per Right.
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: Now we're ten and a half, Like they were just
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: favored by ten at home against the Browns.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: I just don't.
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, I've been caught in this, so I'm not
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: going to argue with you about it because I've been
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: taking a beating on this.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: But to me, this feels like such a pass.
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: Like you can't like ten and a half with De
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: Troit and Sinsey. That's outrageous.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: It's outdoor golf. This should be a Bengals bet for you.
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: This is very most likely will be Like I'm ninety
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: percent sure I'm gonna be on the Bengals and it's
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: gonna hurt.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to spend much time talking about
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: the bad teams, but are we good with forget about jail?
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: Can we just throw the Titans in solitary confinement? At
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: this point, they're eight and a half point underdogs against
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: How in the world do you bet either of these teams?
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: The Cardinals should not be eight and a half point
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: favorites against almost anybody, But.
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: The Titans will take money to that this morning.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: Like, who's who's doing that?
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: Now? There is a price. There's a price for every
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: like every.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: Team for me, all right, what's your Titans price?
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: Now?
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: They think like the Arizona should be able to run
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: the ball this week, and then eventually the dam is
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: gonna break. That's what happens with the Titans now too,
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: like with Sweat on ir their defense eventually, because it
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: was six nothing in the fourth and they lost twenty
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: six to nothing. Their defense because their offense gives are
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: no help, and then their defense finally wears down and
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: then it's Simmons just can't make any plays anymore. It's
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: getting triple team the entire game, and then like what
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: else you got? Basically there's like a one man team.
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: It's like Jeffrey Simmons, he should get they should trade him,
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: like get let him go be on a winner. It's
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: sad my price, man, I mean, my my numbers say
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: I should bet him if it's ten.
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: But I have the Cardinals as nine point favorites in
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: this game, so I'm pretty much on on market here Cardinals.
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: I think I did fourteen to be like, okay, I'm
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: one betting.
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: This is barely a teaser spot for you, tee.
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: I think the Cardinals are a good teaser spot if
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: you can have cheap teasers, Like if you wanted to
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: go to Cardinals and let's say Cardinals.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: Would you buy the right now in case Lamar doesn't play,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: then you'd get them at nine and a half.
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: No, I think the time to do that open at
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: seven and a half, Like that was the time to
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: buy the Texas without much downside risk. I don't know
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: one in three if Lamar has a chance, he's gonna play,
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: So I don't know. At three and a half, it's
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: not worth it to me. But yeah, a good teaser
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: would be I mean, look, it's not across a three
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: and seven, but the Browns like who the points in
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: that game, the London game, points in that game are
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: going to be That game could end three nothing. The Vikings.
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: So I think the Browns might start Gabriel on a
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: short on an international travel week, going to the rookie.
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: You're already out of like they're running out of receivers.
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: Tilman's hurt, Carter's hurt. I think they're going to start
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: thrash and Isaiah Bond would with Judy their tackles. They
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: just had a trade for Cam Robinson, and I think
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: he's gonna start. Conklin maybe he'll be back at right tackle,
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: but he has a right elbow injury, Like he can't
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: really play right tackle unless you were like one hundred
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: percent with your right elbow. So you're gonna might have
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: a rookie quarterback, like a messy tackle situation, new receivers,
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: new tackles, like in an international travel week against the
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: Flores defense. And then on the other side the Vikings,
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: Brian O'Neill is out the right tackle stud there's Ryan Kelly,
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: their center had another concussion and he's probably out. Their
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: left guard I think had risk surgery. Jackson the rookie
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: looks who's looked really good. Their offensive line is in shambles.
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: How are you gonna bock the Browns? So what I
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: think is gonna happen here. If you start a rookie,
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: you're just gonna like you just hand it off like
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: you run the ball thirty times. Because the Vikings run
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: dy has not been great, like even the Steelers round
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: on them. So you just run it here with Judkins,
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: a bunch who's been good against stack boxes so far.
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: Punt run, punt, wait for Garrett to strip Wentz Wentz
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: or McCarthy whoever's back there. Wait for basically the Giants
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: game plan of last week. Starting a rookie quarterback, run
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: run against the backup offensive line, wait for your defensive
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: line to force turnovers, and that's how they could win.
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: But this total is down to thirty six and a half,
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: so we're going ahead to head here because I know
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: you're on Minnesota. I get the spot like it's a
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: good spot play, but I had to take the points
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: because I mean the total thirty six and a half,
• 37:27
  Speaker 3: four and a half points of this game are gonna
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: feel like ten. Like you know how hard it is
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: for any of these season is score four points and
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: you're gonna be watching this game and be like.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: This might be on the this might be on the
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: don't watch list, but you mentioned it right there. Play
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: it in the flag on the Minnesota Vikings three and
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: a half if you can get it four and a
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: half on DraftKings. I bought it the second it opened.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: We had this one circle of the week ago. I'm undeterred.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: I get it with the numbers. Believe me, I would
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: love if this was shorter. The Vikings stay overseas, Browns
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: fly in back to back battles with NFC North competition,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: massive edge on the Vikings. I do worry about the
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: offensive line issues for Minnesota. I think that's why this
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: line is creeping the way that it is. It looks
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: like the Browns have taken money early, but the Vikings
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: should be able to match defensive excellence in this game.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is number one in terms of EPA per play
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: on defense, the Browns ring third or worst in terms
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: of pass blocking. This is Brian Flores blitz happy dream matchup.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: And when you layer in the travel advantage, and when
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: we spotted this one a week ago for a reason,
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to look away from it.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: I'm on the Vikings.
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: Well, we can do a head to head that here again.
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: Well this has.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: Gone so well for me. I'm so excited.
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: Well, if Kendrick come up with it a wager on Thursday, Yeah,
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: I just had to take the points. If you're Stefanski
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: and at least Gabriel can move around a little bit,
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: you know, boot him out. But you just run the
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: ball here, like you don't even let you just run
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: it and punt it. Play so conservatively. Now, obviously, if
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: you get into a game state where you have to
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: you have to, and then it probably won't go well
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: because the receivers can't get separation, they can't pass block,
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: and then they're going to be going up against the
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: Flora's blitz. But you can run on this Minnesota defense,
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: and I just don't know a Minnesota is gonna block Cleveland.
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: Like.
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: This game is probably gonna come down to whoever makes
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: the mistake first. And there's a good chance that it's
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: Miles Garrett and that d line that can force that
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: first mistake, because you don't want either if either of
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: these teams have to play from behind in this game,
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: it's it's lights out. So I took the points. Well, well,
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: we'll come up with make sure you get the four
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: and a half out there at DraftKings. Every point in
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: this game is big, so we'll get Kendrick to come
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: up with a bet. But I am on the Browns.
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: I'll plant my flag on Let's go. Let's see at DraftKings.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: I do like the Panthers, I do like the Saints.
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: I'm with you on the Saints.
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: That all right, I'll plan my flag on the Saints.
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: The Saints are not playing terribly Like they played toe
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: to toe with the Bills. A couple of plays here
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: and there they actually could out a real shot to
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: win that game. They were toe to toe with the
• 40:12
  Speaker 3: Cardinals to tote with the forty nine ers. The Seals
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: king got out of hand because the special teams. But
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: like from a success right down to down basis, they
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: were pretty close. They should be able to run the
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: ball here. The Giants like, look, I was impressed last week,
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: but there's there's They basically benefited from the charters offensive
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: line injuries. Two turnovers have led to two touchdowns. I
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: mean Dart threw for one hundred yards. It was better
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: than Russell Wilson. But now they have on tape what
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: some of the stuff that they want to do with
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: Dart going on the road here after a big win,
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: Saints trumph searching for their first win. Rattlers looked pretty good.
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: I think they'll be able to run the ball here.
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: The Saints still have some pretty good weapons and their
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: run defense I think can hold up, and especially without
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: the threat of Neighbors on the outside, that's going to
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: make things easier. So I'll plan my flag on the
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: Saints minus one, minus one and a half out there.
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: I think they get the victory at.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: Home, and the Giants were already in a good position
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: when Neighbors went down with the injury. It's a completely
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: different story when you already feel good about where you're
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: at in the game and you lose a star player.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: Compared to starting a new week without the threat of
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: that player, yep, and I think that we really see
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: the impact of that now for the main event, no
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: betting week can start without it. It is the primer
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: courtesy of Evan Abrams Evan the Voice of God.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: Welcome to the show.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: What are the trends we need to be aware of
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: before we fire away on the apps?
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 41:36
  Speaker 5: I kind of like this Tuesday, I'm the Voice of God,
• 41:39
  Speaker 5: and then Thursday I kind of swoop in with whatever
• 41:42
  Speaker 5: I have left and make decisions for you.
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: Guys, So either way it works for me.
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: I feel like I've been laughing on the sidelines here
• 41:48
  Speaker 5: because I just tweeted this and Stuck He's been all
• 41:50
  Speaker 5: over Carolina and I completely understand it. So Miami was
• 41:53
  Speaker 5: minus one and a half last night during the game,
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: the Tyreek injury happens, and about an hour or so
• 41:59
  Speaker 5: later it flips the Carolina last more and a half.
• 42:01
  Speaker 5: So the Panthers haven't won or one or covered a
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: game they were favored in since September of twenty twenty one,
• 42:08
  Speaker 5: four full years. They've lost ten straight as a favorite
• 42:12
  Speaker 5: in that spot. That is the longest losing streak as
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: a favorite since the nineteen seventy merger for any team.
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: Right now, Yeah, they are completely and utterly do I mean, honestly,
• 42:24
  Speaker 5: I think I like this side. This is such a
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: fun week in the sense that Stucky myself, other people
• 42:30
  Speaker 5: are going to be considering the Panthers and Saints as
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: maybe the better sides this slate is considering.
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: Just I already have money down.
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: I know, I know, I know, but I'm saying I'm
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: going that direction. Let me keep rolling here because I
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: just have a few closing favorites to six points are
• 42:45
  Speaker 5: more sixteen to two and one straight up this season
• 42:48
  Speaker 5: fewest outright losses for favorites that large through four games
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: since nineteen seventy nine, So after the start with four
• 42:56
  Speaker 5: post point faves, still kind of seeing it on.
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: Obviously Green Bay Dall is the tie there.
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: And then to me, Detroit and Tennessee what Detroit's doing
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: on the cover side fifty to twenty one and one
• 43:09
  Speaker 5: seventy percent since twenty twenty one, basically going to set
• 43:14
  Speaker 5: the record there for a five year span, and I
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: have it in my article, but from a fifty game
• 43:19
  Speaker 5: stretch ridiculous as well, best since the Vikings in sixteen
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: seventeen and then Tennessee three and eighteen ATS as you
• 43:27
  Speaker 5: guys mentioned, but even last twenty five for twenty and
• 43:31
  Speaker 5: one ATS, which would be the worst mark over a
• 43:33
  Speaker 5: twenty five game span since at least nineteen ninety. I
• 43:38
  Speaker 5: think the fun one is overseas, so that game and
• 43:41
  Speaker 5: when I say fun it's a relative term because total
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: down to thirty six and a half, which would be
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: the lowest of the fifty one international games for the
• 43:49
  Speaker 5: regular season we have sent overseas, So this might be
• 43:52
  Speaker 5: the absolute worst performance those fans have seen, but a
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: lot of fun stuff in the article this week. Sometimes
• 43:58
  Speaker 5: there isn't a lot this there's a lot.
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: Is there anything on the Ravens without Lamar?
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: If it goes on that way, I do, hold on,
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: let me pull that up.
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: So what I found with Lamar is simply what everyone
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: kind of knows. Since twenty nineteen, five qbs have started
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: a game for Baltimore Lamar RG three, Anthony Brown, Josh Johnson,
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: Tyler Huntley. In the fourteen games without Lamar, they're four
• 44:25
  Speaker 5: and ten straight up, but nine and five ats. I
• 44:29
  Speaker 5: think the more important part is just the numbers in themselves.
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: Points per game twenty eight with Lamar, sixteen without, So
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: I think that's exactly.
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: What you're getting in this matchup. If he's not there, and.
• 44:41
  Speaker 5: I think stuck, He's right, you're middling that line right now.
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: I think they're just playing the middle game.
• 44:46
  Speaker 5: They don't know, so they're between seven and a half
• 44:48
  Speaker 5: and what do you think stuck without Lamar?
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: What does that line end up at? Well?
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: See, I think without with Lamar, this spread would have
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: been like nine and a half ten, which the Raven's
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: fully healthy, but they're not like all of the other injuries.
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: I think I probably would have made this line around
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: seven and seven and a half if Lamar was playing.
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: Without Lamar, I think it's like a touchdown drop, So
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: honestly I would make this, I don't know, Ravens minus one.
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: The funny.
• 45:21
  Speaker 5: The funny thing is is Lamar against the Texans absolutely
• 45:25
  Speaker 5: crushed them in his career. So like the matchup itself,
• 45:29
  Speaker 5: just looking holistically historically is great for Baltimore, means absolutely nothing.
• 45:34
  Speaker 5: Now with the defense being hobbled, he's hobbled, like the
• 45:37
  Speaker 5: matchup completely different. So yeah, I think in a normal
• 45:40
  Speaker 5: situation like preseason, this spread would have been like eight and.
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: A half nine, so kind of fascinating.
• 45:46
  Speaker 5: But Baltimore obviously in a really really tough situation.
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and those the cluster d injuries are they're hard
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: to price, but like it's those a time you got
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: like four or five Pro bowlers that are hurt. Their
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: defensive line is in shambles, so like it's a couple
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: of points, I think.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: So the bet, it's the bet before the bet, because
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: if you think if you bet the Texans right now
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: at three and a half and there is no Lamar,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: that's incredible value and that's the decision that you're gonna
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: have to make.
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: But if you bet that Texas and there is a Lamar,
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: you're then your your shit out of luck. So I
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: think the time to do that was when it was
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: at plus seven and a half. I think it was
• 46:21
  Speaker 3: at plus seven a half some shops. I had someone
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: tweet me and I said, yeah, you should take this
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: because there's no not much downside risk. I don't think
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: it's going to be ten.
• 46:27
  Speaker 5: I mean yesterday, yesterday at noon it was still six
• 46:29
  Speaker 5: and a half, Like you could have made decisions to
• 46:32
  Speaker 5: try to get in at a price and come back.
• 46:34
  Speaker 5: I think at three and a half it's it's a
• 46:36
  Speaker 5: little bit of a wait and see ie to a.
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: Total pass, I think for me and that the total
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: the Browns Vikings total at thirty five and thirty six
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: and a half in a that we're getting to like
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: Brown like Cleveland home game with when it's like crazy
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: weather with all the winds off the lake type territory
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: with like that, that's a crazy low total. But like
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: I said on solo pod, like at thirty seven and
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: a half, I would I could only look under uh
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: for sure. So yeah, good stuff, Evan, and and I
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: think the Panthers Lions point is worth noting. And I
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: think what is the biggest takeaway there, It's the coaching.
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: I think that's what, like the market hasn't really fully
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: captured how bad Callahan is and how great Campbell has been,
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: being so aggressive on all of these fourth downs and
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: making all of these like plus ev decisions and just
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: they have an identity in that aspect, but they're they're
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: constantly being aggressive going on fourth downs, getting it, building margin,
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: keeping their foot on the gas. I think like that's
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: one of the primary drivers of those wide splits, is
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: it's like Callahan versus Campbell and how bad one has
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: been and how great the other has been.
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: Imagine if you were just wise enough to just bet
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: the Lions every week and fade the Titans every week,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: why don't we even.
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: Have podcasts the folks that will do it for us?
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: On today's episode special thanks to our producers David Paine
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: and Gifford Gould.
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: Thank you Evan for the stats.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: Make sure you go and check out the primer over
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com. The Favorites will return on Thursday.
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: Kendro will be back with us as well. Make sure
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: you follow us on the Action Network YouTube page Week
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: five best Bets on Thursday. We'll see you right here
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: on the Favorites presented by Draft Gings. Let's catch these tickets.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: Like, Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: Gambler