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The Favorites - NFL Week 4 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football season is here,
• 0:04
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• 0:07
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  Speaker 1: to make every moment more this football season. You must
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  Speaker 1: or text next step to five three three four two
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  Speaker 1: in Arizona one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven
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  Speaker 1: chat in Connecticut one eight hundred nine with it in Indiana,
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  Speaker 1: seven seven seven seven zero Stop in Louise, Sianna one
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: eight seven and seven eight Hope n y or text
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  Speaker 1: Hope and Why in New York Tennessee. Redline is one
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  Speaker 1: eight hundred eight eight nine nine hundred five hundred in Wyoming,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: or visit www. One eight hundred gambler dot net in
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: of the Action Network. I am joined by my co host,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional better Diamond Hunter.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: We winners Buddy Week three wrapped three and two, eleven
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: and four in the contest. That's the gold, Buddy. Life
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: is good when you can start a year off and
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: not lose for a month to start the season, and
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: now we're gonna moving October September. Is in fact that
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: we won every week, I can ask for a better
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: start the gear chat. That's the that's the ultimate goal,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: especially because what we're just building up opinions and data
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: right now like this this is hopefully we'll just get
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: better as we go along here, but can't can't start
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: any better again every weekend the goal is three and two.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Lucky for us, we started five and oh week one,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: so our numbers are pumped up right now. Opinions and data.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Opinions and data. God, that is a great way to
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: describe it. As a reminder. We had the Bengals, we
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: had Washington. That one was a stinker, never close, wrong
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: side from the beginning, kind of a bummer we had
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: the Colts started out great, made us a little nervous,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: and then they remembered they were the Colts and they
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: at least close it out with a win. I still
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: have no faith in this team long term, but that
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: was the right spot. We had the Jags never a sweat,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: wouldn't have been a sweat at any number. We loved
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: him from the beginning. And we had New England three
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: and a half against the Ravens. I thought the Patriots
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: had a shot in that game. That was our big
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: balls better the week. It was a bet we made
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: in our contest. It was a game wise guys loved
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: the number was moving fast from three and a half,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: kept moving down, down, down. You know. I think they
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: were a Kendrick Born fumble away from taking the lead
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: in that game and it and it being much closer
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: in the final score appeared. Yeah, definitely. The Patriots had
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: all the opportunities in the world. They just their their
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: issue this year is they turned the ball over too much,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: they had fumbles, Mac had a terrible pick in the
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: back of the end zone. Um brutal, But again that's
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: kind of how it goes where it's like you're playing
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: the numbers and the bounces you to kind of go
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: your way as well. So to me, the Colts was
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: the prime example of shut up, you don't know anything.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know anything. Whatever you watch week the week
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: doesn't really matter. You just gotta trust the numbers. And
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: that was the definition of a game. It stunked the
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: minute it came out. I mean, you had it. We
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: liked that seven, like that six and a half. Just
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: the game stunk once it got all way down to
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: four and a half. And you've got guys a gammera
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: of ELTONI. It's their biggest bet, and everyone's all over
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. You're you're just feeling really good about your
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: position with this Colds team, because you know, the public
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: is absolutely pounding that number and it keeps dropping. The
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: book keeps them on better number. And so at four
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: and a half, the books clearly took a position. They
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: didn't think the cultuream went either. The Chiefs there they
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: lost that game, right, Can we say that the Colts
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: didn't so much. Yeah, they made the players. Of course,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Kelsey dropped a catch right in the back of the
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: end zone that was a touchdown. They would have been
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: up what ten, and then they missed the field goal.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: So it was just one of the things. It was
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: all serendipity. It was just like, you really can't fight fate.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Colts went right down the field scored that touchdown and
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: that was just crazy. I mean again, that's that's why
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: we love betting on ugly dogs. You get these positions.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Another one we did even take but we gave out
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: was the Miami money line. That was such a fun game.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: It was just classic. Nothing makes sense. The Bills are
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: by far the better team in every aspect, but Miami
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: made the plays. They frustrated Alan to no end, and
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: they like again, that was just such a bizarre game.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: And that was one of those you're just playing the
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: number in situation and we looked like geniuses and then
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: the other side look like an idiot. On Washington, I'll
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: own that one. Definitely the worst read of the weekend.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Um still actually had chances desplay. I think at one
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: point the chart said, I think the Eagles had three
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: twenty two yards and Washington had minus one through whatever
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: it was at that point, it would have been two
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: or three quarters. That's how bad Washington was. So to me,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: that was just a bad read where Washington. I don't
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: even want to say the team played better, it was
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: just Carson he held on it to too long. I
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: think he end up giving up nine sacks. Um. That
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: was just a complete meltdown by a guy that you
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: can see why he's been on three different teams in
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: three years. It's it's just it's a tough time right
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: now for Washington fans. Where we again, we're we're talking
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: about them for sure this week. Um, we talked about it.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I fell into the trap. You just don't know you're
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: getting week the week from that team, and they're gonna
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: be kind of impossible to bet all season. Yeah. I
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: hated that one. Hey, Carson Wentz, I feel like, you know,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: we've got a couple of regrets here. You said it
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: the keywords opinions in data, right, So in that spot
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: you gotta bet the Commanders at six and a half,
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: buying low on them, selling high on the Eagles. It's
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: the right spot. It was disgusting to hold your nose.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not a Carson Wentz believer despite the numbers. To me,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: they're superficial, but you gotta bet it. Dolphins were gonna
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: talk a lot about because it's the first game on
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Thursday night. I don't want to spend too much time
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: on that. We also just we left out sort of
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: the last few out were the Falcons, which ended up
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: being the right side and they continue to be the
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: wise guy Juggernaut, And we left out the Vikings, which
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I just sort of hated that game the whole time.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: It never made sense to me, so I'm glad we
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: didn't play that one. But whatever, We're three and two.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: We're moving on. I want to remind everybody we will
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: do foxhold in this bet uh in this uh in
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: this show. We will do our Simon says, we will
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: do our executive decision. We will do our early leans
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: on survivor for those who have UH picks that lock Thursday,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: although I don't have anyone's left and survivor. Between the
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Chiefs losing and the Bills losing, I was getting messages
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: all week, thank god we chose the Bengals because everybody
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: else is out of their leagues. Um are their pools
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: last week. Just reminders Foxhol was Vikings minus six that's
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: a loss, Exact Decision, Bengals minus four and a half. Hello,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Chad Simon says Bucks minus two. Boo Simon survivor was
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: the Bengals and scooch row let I had the Jacks
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: plus seven, you with the Falcons minus one. Reminder again,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: follow the phase five in the Action Network app. That's
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: what you get our final That's where you will get
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: our final five picks. Will post him in the app.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Actual Network app download for free. Follow phase five. We'll
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: post him in the app on Sunday after or new.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: All the other picks Foxhol Exact Decision Simon says, Scoot Roulette, etcetera.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Those are under the Favorite podcast also in the Action
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Network app. We split them up so we can be
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: very clear and full transparency on the five picks from
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: making every week and just track those for the record keeping.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: One of the things I want to say, Sigmon, okay,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: I throw my notes away here. Cancy Chiefs are a
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: very interesting team right now because you could easily look
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: at Week one and think, okay, they were better, but
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: they played a crappy team. We two Chargers missed a
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: lot of opportunities to shut down Patrick Mahomes, and by
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: luck of Patrick, they just did not make the right
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: they didn't make the interceptions, and then we three. He
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: looks pretty human against the Colts. So we're gonna get
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: to a Chiefs game. The Chiefs are playing the Buccaneers.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: It's something to keep an eye on. I want to
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: be thinking about that. I want you to be thinking
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: about what I said there, because first, this was the
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: first game I bet this week, Dolphins at since the
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Thursday night game opened Bengals one and a half, it's
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: now up to three and a half. Full disclosure in
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: the app. I bet it's Sunday night at two and
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: a half. It moved within five minutes. Bet the Bengals,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: what say you? Oh, hey, didn't you're you're going off
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: the fact that Miami just played in that game, or
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: they're all exhausted from everything and just went on to us.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Got what their claim is a back injury, But I
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: think the months of us think it's a head injury.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: But back of his head maybe, yeah exactly. But again,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: I I gotta go with that NFL saying they apparently
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: haven't got in trouble yet, so maybe they're not lying,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: but I don't hate it. But to me, my first
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: clients instinct was smash the Dolphins here, like this is
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: this is a great matchup for this team. But again,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do that because I think two is
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: banged up and like came in that second half. Hell,
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: they put up fourteen points really quick on that Bill's team,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: and then they didn't get that seven until later on
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: and that was like what one played a waddle, I think,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: and then they ran it in. Clearly something's going on there.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: And they didn't really pass it with him either, because
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: they said when I'm taking hits. So but I just
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: blindly bet the Bengals right now. I don't hate the
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: position because you're still getting it under four, and I
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: think it will go up. We talked about it last
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: week I was on Cleveland. I usually take these home
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: favorites on Thursday nights. I just play it that way.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Even if the public's on it, I still ride with
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: it because historically works out for me. Bengals, again, I
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: think they're overrated and I think Miami is just as
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: good as them. But in this position, like Chad's kind
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: of thinking, here on a short week after what they've
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: just gone through in a couple of injuries. It's it's
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: a lot to ask, um of this Miami team to
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: go on the road and throw, on top of that
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Hurricanes coming. So it just feels like there's a lot
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: going on these guys, these players lives and minds where
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know how much this game is going to
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: be to them. At three and oh where this band?
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Those teams they're one and two, they need this game.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: This is this is them kind of getting a groove right,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: a big win last week, So kind of get where
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Chad's coming from. At least he got the best of
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: the number. For me, I still don't think it a
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: terrible number three and a half. Um at four or
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: four and a half, I started thinking Miami, though. The
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Dolphins one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Back
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: to back wins against the teams everyone thought were the
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: amongst the three best in the a f C along
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: with the Chiefs. They've played in a hundred degree weather
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: for two straight weeks, a lot of plays on the field,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: and despite the fact that it was the visiting teams,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the Ravens and the Bills that struggled in the heat.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: They're still having to play in that. It takes your
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: body time to recover. Now they got to get on
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: a plane, they got to play in Cincinnati. Their quarterback
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: is banged up. I was only betting the number here
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: was to me, it was just like the Bengals should
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: be a field goal favorite. That's it. They weren't, So
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I'm taking the half point and moving on. I also
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: had you in the back of my head saying favorites
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: tend to cover on Thursday night. They do just historically
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: they do. Ye. All right, Well, you're not with me
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: on the Bengals, so that's fine. You're kind of with me,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: but you don't feel as strongly as I do. Know,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm just a prime time under guy now,
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: like I'm I'm literally making my most money this year,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: just slamming, smashing these prime time unders and they keep happening.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: Last night that would even talked about the best of
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: the number huge last night, we I gave out what
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: is it thirty nine and a half Sunday morning. It
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: was one of my bets for Monday night. It was
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: still there Monday morning. Then the pros came in dropped
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: the thirty eight. Back up the three D and a
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: half game land at thirty nine. So the books were
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: spot on again with the numbers they make. That's the number.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: It was huge there in that prime time game. But
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: what is it now? Seven and two if you count
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: last night as a loss to the unders for prime time?
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: UM pretty crazy start the year. Here's my problem with
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: UM in totals. There's too much variant and unpredictability in
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: the final two minutes of each half. That's why you're
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: just playing the number and you don't even care what happens.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Like it wasn't like I'm just blindly playing these prime
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: time and there's we talk all the time. You usually
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: get one or two points no matter what of value
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: towards the under, just because the public love's betting over.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: So that's why something I'm looking for This year has
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: been a freak year though I think it's sixty eight
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: percent something crazy like that right towards the unders, or
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: maybe it's sound a sixty three percent. Now this year
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: has been extreme for the start the year for unders.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: I think it's historically the most unders ever have hit
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: through three weeks. So if you're an overs better it
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: is going to shift like the books will catch up
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: to it. This week it was eight and eight overs
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: unders for the past two weeks where eleven and five
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: eleven and five, So they're clearly making adjustments. Um, if
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: you're in overs better to me, there's just still a
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: lot of games. You've got a good value on these unders. Hey,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: here's a question I got on the Twitter this week.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: I want to get your opinion, because I have an
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: opinion of it. In fact, I'll probably start exercising it,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: which was, let's say you go through week one, week two,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: week three, and you're winning, do you start to adjust
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: your unit size? What do you mean, like bet Moore, Yeah,
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: I'm probably wrong. I gotta ask because, like, my biggest
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: week other than the super Bowl is probably weak one
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: just because of again bets down for five six months. Again,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: it's not that much money. But then once you hit
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: July and books started taking the cap off, you can
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: really start adding up the dollars for week one. So yeah,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: I would say, if you if you're feeling good and
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: you have a little rhythm going here, bump it up.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: But nothing extreme, Like I wouldn't be double in if
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: say I was bet in a hundred I wouldn't start
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: doing two hundred, Maybe go half, maybe one fifty. Maybe
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: a game, keep building it up because to me, like
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: me and you to talk about time, you're not getting
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: rich this year, like this is a long term grind
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: out wins kind of thing. So yeah, if you if
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: you're hot again, hotter than me and Chad of course,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: but for me, I definitely bump it up. But it's
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: game to game positioned by position. Like there's certain games
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: I just jump out, I really take a strong position
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: on it. And then there's other times where it's like
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: I've already taken a position for a lot of money
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: and I hear someone else is on the other side
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: and I have to get out of it and buying
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: out to real pain because you already have so much
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: bet into it where you guys aren't gonna be doing
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: that stuff. You're kind of bed into stuff. You're just
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: gonna let it ride. So to me, just don't overdo
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: it on a game. You could give a great read
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: because we know there's no sure things things things happen here,
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: So my advice would don't go crazy. I wouldn't double
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: it up just because we're starting so well or you
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: are um, kind of keep it going, but yeah, up
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: in a little bit. Of course, take advantage of you
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: being hot right now because we talk all the time.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: Eventually you're going to lose, You're gonna get a little cold.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: You want to take advantage when you're on a little
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: bit of a hot streak. Yeah, I actually it's week
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: three right now. Things have been going really well. I
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: usually examine it at the quarter pole. If I'm still
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: doing well after week four, then I bump it up
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit. And when I say a little bit
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: like maybe, like not, I'm not doubling like Simon says.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: I'm just trying to be eke out incrementally a little
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: more over the course of the season. I don't want
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: it to be something where it's Sunday night or Monday
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: night and I'm chasing because I'm down more than I
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: want to be, because I made stupid decisions about how
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: to manage my bank roll. Every professional better will tell
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: you managing your bank roll is the hardest and smartest
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: thing you can do in betting. I used to joke
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: that wise guys are wise guys because they know how
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: to keep money in their pocket. Managing your bank roll
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: is paramount in that process. So if you're gonna do it,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: don't be an asshole. Just do it a little tiny
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: bit so you feel a little bit better but not
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: too much worse if you lose Vikings and Saints cheerios
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: just glorious execution. I don't know, man, this is like
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: a no brainer to me. You take the Vikings here, yeah, meet,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: you will walk right into this trap. This game's in London,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: it's early in the morning, I'm honestly. Then, just take
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: the sense that the books cannot get these Saints team right.
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: They're owing three eights, yes, clear of the books keep
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: putting up shipping numbers on the Saints team, they keep
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: not covering, and for some reason they're not justin. Maybe
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: we're walking into this right now because the books are
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: clearly saying the Saints defense is going to shut down
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: this Vikings offense because there's nothing in the Saints have
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: shown an offense to give you any hope that they
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: could keep up with this Vikings team on offense. So
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: to me, the books are clearly made a statement here
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: saying everyone in the world come back the Vikings, come
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: get them under a field goal. It stinks the holy
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: hell so no chance I would let Chat talk me
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: and putting this. We had two bad experiences with London
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: games where I kind of like woke up and was
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: just like, no, we gotta take this in the contest,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: and it blew up in my face. So hopefully Chat
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: won't let me do it again. But this Vikings number stinks,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: like I bet it too when I saw it, because
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: it's like, what the hell this is gonna to three?
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: Here we are a day and a half later, it's
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: still it's still a two and a half. So I
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: have no idea what the books think, Like they really
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: do believe in the Saints team. I think they're hot garbage, Like,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know why they haven't adjusted on them. Give
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: me three and a half four, I start thinking Saints
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: two and a half, no brainer. Take the Vikings. Hey,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: by the way, it is two and a half and
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: right now about of the money is on the Vikings.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: It just doesn't make any sense. There are something we're
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: definitely stepping in it, do you think so? Yeah? I
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: mean again, the books could just be hanging a crap number.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: But if if reverse Primetime spot for Kirk Cousins, maybe
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: that's what they're banking on Hills, He'll stink it up here.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: But I don't get it. I just don't see how
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: the the in what world the Saints offense with a
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: broken Jamis can keep up with this Vikings offense. Like
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: the Vikings, they are really talented team, and so to me,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: it's just an interesting number. It's like the books are
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: really again taking a position, and on the Saints team,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: they're owing three. So I don't really know why they're
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: backing them like this. All right, well, I would love
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: to take this in the contest. It does not concern
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: me at all. I'm getting the better team against a
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: coach I don't believe in a quarterback who's playing with
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: a broken back literally uh an offense that seems like
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara has lost his mojo and mark ingram is
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: the bulk of the carries. Uh is like the guy
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: they're counting on the most in the backfield at eight
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: five years old. I just think this, like his team
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: is better. I'm getting the better team in a neutral
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: field for less than a field goal. Come man, make
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: of your exact decision, though, That's what I thought. That's
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: what I thought, kirk Man kirk Is, that's the problem Kirk.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: Not that was laughing at people, but people are like,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: what do you think about them? For Super but what
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: do you think about him for m v P. It's
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: just like have you watched him for ten years now?
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: He is what he is. It's just he's Kirk. Next game.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: This is not making our list of anything at this point.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: The Vikings, Josh Bills on the road at the Ravens,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: the Ravens three and a half. We got a pro Joe.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: We got a pro Joe. The bets on the bills
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: of the money on the Ravens. I know what I like. Again,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: we don't really have a choice in the spot. We
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: have to take the Ravens. Like this is again playing
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: the numbers. What do we said last time? We'll take
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: the money line as well here with the Ravens because
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: historically Josh Allen beats you. He beats are pretty damn good.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: But at three and a half, this is a key number.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: We'll definitely be taking this number. Um the Ravens again,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: Chad kind of talked about it and we we spoke earlier.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: There's secondaries not look good. Just through three weeks they've
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: been torn up every team, but they're getting guys back.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: They got guys back last week, right, those are their
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: first games, so they did have moments they didn't look
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: too good. But as the season goes along here, I
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: do think major adjustments from this ravens the defense. I
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: would have a little bit of pause about Josh Allen
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: here because of what he just went through and like
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: the position he's in here. But we looked at the forecast.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: We're supposed to get this hurricane weather for the next
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: three days up here from I believe it's Saturday, Sunday,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: and Monday. That's when this game is on Sunday. So
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: you're saying we're gonna have crazy storms up here, Josh Allen.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: They don't run it like you look at the Bills.
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: That's the biggest weakness of that team by far as
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: they don't run the ball, they only throw it. They
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: were just one dimensional. Now you're gonna tell me we're
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: gonna have a crazy storm up here. I don't know it.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: Just it feels like we're getting a good number. What's
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: gonna be a sloppy battle. It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: will not save you. This Bills team is gonna have
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: to these injuries start catching up to them. They dropped
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: two to two and two here. That's that's pretty that's
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: that's not what people expected from the team that was
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: the most Super Bowl hyped up team here. So I'm
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: with people that they're gonna be feeling it. I don't
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: know if Josh can do much about it. Like we
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: saw what Miami did last week. They did too high safety.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: They made him ninking dunk all the way down field
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: and frustrated the hell out of them. I mean, seventeen
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: points against that Miami defense, you expect them more out
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: of them. Um again, they got the safety, so they
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: ended up with nineteen. But it's just it was one
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: of those things where I saw the issues for Josh,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: and I can see the Ravens doing the same exact thing.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: Like that style of defense. It's not that hard to play,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: So you know what, I think we should do it,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: because I do think this is a foxhole bet, But
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: the Ravens to me at three and a half, it's
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: one of those I kind of I was gonna make
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: it time and says that I have another game. I like,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: I would grab this now just in case his weather
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: does turn bad. I could see this get into three,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: because why would no one else, everyone else be betting this.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: This is a running team and bad weather. This is
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: kind of where you want to take this Ravens team.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Are we fox holding it? Let's fox hold the foxhole.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Let's clide down into the foxhole. Ravens plus three and
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: a half. You said a phrase that I feel like
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: it should be part of the vernacular. Too high safety.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: That's like what you should call the dude in college
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: who stays sober when everyone else is getting high. Like
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: it's like a designated driver. You're the too high safety. Well,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: I would it be advice to people in college, don't
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: hang out that too high safety. Make regrets, make mistakes.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: That's the colleges speaking and regrets. The Commanders are three
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs on the road at the
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Cooper Rush Cowboys another pro Joe the best coming in
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: on the Cowboys, of the money coming in on the Commanders.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: I know what we just said about Carson Wentz week
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: to week, game to game. You gotta forget these things.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: You gotta bet the number. It's another It's the same
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: exact scenarios last week, only with a team that's much
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: much worse. You gotta bet the Commanders here. I know
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: we're not doing it. There's no way this ends up
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: in our contest. Chad. Everything you just said is right,
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: but what do we just see the comm As biggest
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: weakness was I can't fucking block anyone. Now you're giving
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: then one of the most destroy destructive defensive players we've
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: ever seen him, like a Parsons, I don't know. Stinks
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: to holy hell Eagles fan. I'm honestly, my life has
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: never been better like my team's three and oh the
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: Cowboys legit have a QB controversy. Cooper Rush, I love
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: the ship on the kid made some pro throws like
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: good reads and put the ball in there against the
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: Giants defense. That was good and they were humming. I
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: can't believe he really did that in that primetime game
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: last night. So, like again, I wish it was a joke,
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: but it's like, I don't know him and Deck aren't
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: that much different if we're being honest right now. So
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: to me, I'm with Chad like I'll probably end up
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: on the Commanders. But as we sit here on Tuesday,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: I got a real bad taste in my mouth with
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: that that Washington game again, they have all the pieces
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: there that Washington, that Washington offense is good. Holy sh it, man,
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it's they can't block or if
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Carson just cannot understand you can't hold on the ball
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: from more than three to four second spot. This is
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: just a bad matchup for US Washington team. So I
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: get what Chad's coming from this kind of a prose
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: pro number, like you're just fading what happened last week,
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: But I might starving to take this Cowboys team a
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: little bit more serious. I need to adjust my numbers
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: because to me, yes, coming into last week, I would
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: have been on this commander of this team. Actually think
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: you might be getting a good number now with this
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: Cowboys team. They're not that bad with Cooper Rush as
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: their quarterback, and they're hell of a lot better than
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: Washington is right now. So it's it's funny you say
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: that about Cooper Rush. I was watching that game last night,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: you know, first half, because I went to bed, uh,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: and I thought to myself for a second, I forgot
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: who the Cowboys starting quarterback wise, and I thought, is
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: there going to be a quarterback controversy? And then I
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: remember it was back like no, they just won't you know,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: they won't have it, but they could. Again my again,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: the reason I say they're equal is that Cooper Rush
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: is cheap. Back is expensive right now, Like the town
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: level isn't that different where if I'm getting a huge
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: discount on Cooper Rush, you move deck and then you
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: build a team out like that's kind of the move there.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: So to me, the Cowboys, I can make all these jokes.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Jerry's a crazy dude. I know he's gonna looking at
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: that too. And if there's an opportunity to move on
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: from Dak, who, let's face it, what has he really
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: done for that team other then making to the playoffs
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: and just not capitalized on that those moments. So I
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: just think it's interesting, like this kid wins another game
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: here that their favorite in their three not with Cooper
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Rush after getting what was it three points Week one
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: with Dak against the Bucks. So it's it's gonna be
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: interesting this season now with this going on, because as
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: a fan that had two quarterbacks on the team with
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: the Eagles, it was a total nightmare every week like
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: what was going on behind closed doors? So going to
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: be interested to watch this Cowboys team me and both
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: me and Chad both had them making the playoffs this year. Honestly,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: even though when Dak went down, nothing really changed for me,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: not even more so. It's just like the NFC is
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: so wide open. I can just see a team with
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: a defense this could make it in this Cowboys team,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: So I kind of again, I might do it justice Cowboys, right,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: I think there are actually a lot better than I've
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: been giving them credit for. Alright, well, we still got
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: a signment, says in an exact decision to go Titans
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half on the road at the
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: Indianapolis Colts. I don't have a strong read on this game,
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: strong opinion. It feels like it's kind of at three
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: and a half. You kind of take the Titans at three,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: you leave it alone, but not for any big, big
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: units here. I mean, my gut instinct was to take
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: um the Titans just because they've owned this cold steam
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: last couple of years. Vayable is just his teams have
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: just historically played well against his cold steam. But the
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: fact that it's up to three and a half stinks
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: to hell. But what a weird number this cold Steam
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: is not? Are they really that much better than Tennessee
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. Um I and I didn't think
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: that was so much the Colts winning is the Chiefs
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: just kind of blew that game last week. But yeah,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: I'm with your chat. As we sit here on Tuesday,
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: I haven't really touched this game, and when I looked
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: at it again, my first opinion was just go at Tennessee.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: But weird, weird number one of the weirder numbers this week,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: Like definitely from an a f C South game. I
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: tell people of time I love the AFC South because
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: I feel like that's where I make my money just
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: because no one cares about those teams, and it's proved
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: out this year. We've been all over Uston, We've been
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: all over the jag Wires and the Colts last week.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: There's just there's just something about that division that it
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: just you can find value because no one wants to
• 28:33
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• 30:23
  Speaker 1: Browns visiting the Falcons. The Falcons look all credit to
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: you because I am not being a buyer. Falcons covered
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: against the Rams, covered against the Seahawks, covered in Week one.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: They have been a covering machine this year. The wise
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: guy said it would be true. Now they're two point
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: dogs at home against the Browns. It's bullshit, man. They
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: should be two on one. They should have beat the Saints.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: They should be tied for the division lead. I mean,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: out of my victory Lap of the year gave him
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: out thirty five to one. They should be tied with
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: the lead of this division after three weeks, but they
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: just they gave that one away Week one again three
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: o eight t Shoud talked about three oh to the
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: over as well. This is a high powered offense with
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: a ship defense. So just a fun team like, if
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: you like betting ugly teams that are fun, Atlanta is fun.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: Like they just they score a lot in a weird
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: offensive style with Mariota and they give up a lot
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: of points. So that's Brown's team. My initial instinct is
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: pound the Browns, like the Browns are good all around.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: If for second play like he played on Thursday night,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: Holy sh it, man, but the Browns are good. We
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: all we knew they had all the talent in the world,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: they just didn't have a quarterback. This line, it kind
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: of makes you take a second and think it's like, Okay,
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: this was minus three. The Pros came in a pounded Atlanta.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: Wasn't the public that came in heaving on that three.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: It was the Pros. So interesting move by them, because
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: I honestly thought you were gonna get an overvalue Atlanta
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: team at this point. Um just because again they've they've
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: covered three straight weeks Cleveland extended rest going up gets
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: a team that really can't stop the running in Atlanta,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: they should be able to dominate this game with Nick Chubb.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: But um no, no, no real take on this game
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: for me yet. But I think people can already tell
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: which way I'm kind of lean like I like Atlanta.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: I like what Atlanta does. Um, this is usually kind
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: of a letdown spot for this Cleveland team historically after
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: a big divisional win. Now they felt good for a
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: whole week going up against the team, they're probably not
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: gonna take that serious in Atlanta. This is kind of
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: where I want to take Atlanta, But hopefully we get
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: back to a better number because that one and a half,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: it's not not the best home dog. There's other positions
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: I'd rather take. Yeah, it's a tricky game. A lot
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: of this comes down to coaching, right, and the Falcons
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: are covering slash winning I think in spite of themselves,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: not because they're doing anything extraordinary consistently. Um. You know,
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: in that Rams game, they got a lot of turnovers
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: against the Seahawks. They had turnovers and they were playing
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: an inferior team, not discounting the fact that's hard to
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: go win on the road. Uh, Saints, they gave it away.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: The Browns are a better coach team. And so if
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: you're giving me a team and saying they just gotta win,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: even though it's on the road, they gotta beat an
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: inferior team and they're across the board better in every
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: other way. It's tough for me to want to back
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: the team that seems to win on Flukes, there's a
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: regression coming for the Falcons. To me, it's true. But
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: also we saw Cleveland give one away the Jets. We
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: know that the Cleveland's going to Cleveland, so that's always
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: part of built in betting this team. It's like they
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: are who we thought they were. Kind of kind of
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: deal with Cleveland. We still got a Simon says, we
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: still got an exact decision. By the way, exact decisions
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: crushing this year. Uh, not for nothing. Jets Steelers Steelers
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: minus three. Simon says, grab that Steelers minus three do
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: we do a lot of sciences. Hopefully he doesn't go
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: back up the three and a half. We can just
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: get a three all week in case you want to
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: wait on it. But I love Pittsburgh in this position
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: at home coming off a bad loss. Tomlin in this
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: spot historically has been has done well at home with
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: a team that they're desperate. So get the opponent. Their
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: name was great Faces and they're playing against the Jets
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: team that I thought they put well with Joe Flacco.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: But we've seen their ceiling, like they're just not that good.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: Like last week against the Bengals, they had different opportunities,
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: but when it gets a third and eight and they
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: make some stupid pealing out third and thirteen, that's just
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: the Jets, like they just keep putting themselves in bad positions.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Bengals again, they've been incredible in second half. Defensively, they're
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: not as good as Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh secondary is better than
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: the bang of secondary. So to me, if it's gonna
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: be Zack Wilson and his first start after not playing
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: a competitive game and since last year again we saw
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: him in preseason, he was absolutely terrible. Um, just a
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: bad That's why I don't get why they would do
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: it while they would put him in this spot against
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh because it's literally they're just throwing them to the
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: Wolves like it's it's a bad position to put your
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: QB in. Where we know what Pittsburgh does. They run
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: different schemes, different blitz packages, are always throwing fake looks constantly.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: That's gonna that That to me is such a freaking
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: huge deal to a kid like Zack Wilson on the
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: offensive side. I know people don't like what Trabiski was
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: last week, but I thought he actually did make some
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: good plays and they were moving the ball pretty well
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: in Cleveland. Just when it got the crunched on, we
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: saw what happened with Mitch right he tightened up. He
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: just could not pick up first downs and you just
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: couldn't put anything together. So I know people are down
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: on them. That's where we're getting a little bit of
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: value on Pittsburgh, and to me, I'll take that value
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: here where this Jets team they're just not good. In
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: the fact that Zack Wilson's coming back, it's even more
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: of a reason. I just cannot see how he can
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: put up points against this Pittsburgh's defense. Yeah, you know,
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: you and I talked a little bit about this on
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: our daily show on Action Network, Green Uh Daily. You
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: gotta watch it because you're getting sort of the betting
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: agenda for the day and during the NFL season for
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: the week noon Eastern. Watch it on Action Network, HQ
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: and Twitter, and listen to the podcast version of Green
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: Dot Daily wherever you like your podcasts. To me, historically,
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: you're talking about the Steelers not being great as favorites
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: at home against inferior teams and outperforming when their road dogs.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: We didn't get the job done, we came up short.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: Please don't talk to me about more victories are to
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: be disrespectful to those guys in the room. Now you're
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: back home. They need to win these games when they
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: are playing teams that are worse. They can't afford the
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: letdowns anymore. And I think that also plays to Mike
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Thomlin's strength to be able to define the stakes for
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: his team in ways that he did not have to
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: do before because he has so much more talent. The
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: standard is the standard. That's our motto, that's our creed,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: that's our approach time and time again. I love the
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Steelers here. I think that that's are fresh. I mean
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: we look, we talked about this the Jets one the draft.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: Everyone piled on their season win total over you, and
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: I went the opposite way. I don't see the Jets
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: being a very good team, no matter who's playing quarterback. Again,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Lucky for the Jets, like they just got to make
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: it for these next couple of weeks and then it
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: does get easier for you guys. But I just don't
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: think this is the this is the spot for exact
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: to come back. So I'm hoping it is him. That's
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: why i want to get this number early. But if
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: it's Joe Flacco, doesn't really matter to me. I still
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: think you're getting good number of this Pittsburgh team. Do
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: we like them enough to put them in the contest
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: right now? Simon says, I would say yeah, at like three,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: I would definitely put that in, just because that's such
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: a good number for this team. At three and a half, four,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: maybe way on a little bit, but at three, I
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: can't say no to that. All right, we're adding to
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: the list right now. We only got two teams on
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: their Ravens plus three and a half, Steelers minus three
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: next game up. I immediately thought to myself, the Jaguars
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: are visiting the Eagle came open at seven. It's moved
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: down a hair a scoche six and a half. Man,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, what the What this is basically saying
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: to me is that the market really values what the
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: Eagles did against the Commanders a little bit more than
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: what the Jaguars did against the Chargers. Really, I thought
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: it it was I think they're valuing them kind of equally.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Like the fact that this is down to six and
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: a half is kind of telling. We're like, alright, people
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: have clearly taken position on the seven. The book's respect
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: enough given the six and a half. Now, Eagles are
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: the tease team. They're that team like last week was
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs, last week was the Bills, last week we're
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: the Bengals. That like, they give you this six and
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: a half and they said, go ahead, tease these three
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: teams down. If you if you hit two of them, congrats,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: you're probably not gonna do it. And that's what they're
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: kind of giving you here. This Eagles team. There's like, alright,
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: all the hype. We think the Eagles are the number
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: one team the n NFC. There, the ives the best
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: offense right now, could argue they're one of the best
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: defenses right now playing the Jaguars team that every week
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence has improved and like that was again, I
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: can't ask for much more. They should be three and
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: oh they let an egg against that Commander's team week one,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: but they grew from it and they put up a
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: twenty four and nothing shut out against the Colts. And
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: I didn't care if Herbert's but Helsey in that game,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: I don't think that mattered. Like they beat the ship
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: out of that Chargers team and every facet like there
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: they had. They've had injuries the Chargers team, but man,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: like the D line of that combo of Walker and
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen on that D line, it's it's huge for
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: that that Jaguars team, like their their defense is flying
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: around and the Trevor Lawrence with that Christian Kirk Robinson
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: back off that major injury, he's he's one of the
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: top five running backs right now in football. It's all
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: there for this j Jacksonville team. Now you're giving me
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: them at six and a half against an Eagles team
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: that I do think they're really good, but that's a
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: lot of points against the team my view as a
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: playoff team and the Jaguars in for Doug Peterson, what
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: a position to be in. He knows all these guys,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: like like the the ins and out of this whole team.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: He coached Jalen's whole rookie year, like he's been there
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: with all these different players. So I know, and I've
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: seen the video clips of the Jaguars team. They love
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: Doug Peterson like they like this guy a lot. They're
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: gonna play for him. The revenge aspects nice. In fact,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: we're getting good numbers, even better like the six and
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: a half. It's a really nice number to me. This
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: is the the Vikings game. Throw that one away. The
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: Eagles have been dominant, no doubt, in the first half.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: They're one of the best first half teams. Back to
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: back weeks. They haven't support in the second half. Again,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: that could be taking the foot off the gas, but
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: with a high powered offense like Jacksonville, I just can't
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: see being a blowout game like this. Jacksonville can keep
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: pace again. Trevor Lawrence week one one touchdown past last
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: uh Week two, he through for two, last week he
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: through for three. He's growing, He's getting better. This kind
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: of one of those positions where we're buying the hype
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: right like people knew we were gonna be at this
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars game. Regardless, it's the fact that it moved
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: off seven. You're not ideal, But I'll take the six
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: and a half. That's another key number to me. The
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: reason I was saying, um, I feel like they're valuing
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: the Eagles a little bit more is because I think
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: the numbers should have moved more. UM I think it
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: opened a little bit higher than it should have opened.
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: And when I saw this game on Sunday night, I
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: saw the Jags plus seven, and I'm like, that doesn't
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: make any sense to me. I didn't have the courage
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: to better in the moment, like I wanted to look
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit deeper. I saw moved to six and
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: a half and immediately took it because and I'll say
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: right now, this is my executive decision. Executive decision. Chad
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: Noman is proud of himself. There's so many signals about
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: what you what you just said about the Jaguars. Loving
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Doug Peterson and I watched a lot of that Chargers game.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: We're both invested in this Jaguars team. It is a
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: really good marriage of enthusiastic, creative coach who's super tolerant
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: of mistakes and not afraid to go for it in
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: the macro sense, with a quarterback who can sling it
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: with really good talent around him at he's deep at
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: running back, he's deep at receiver. That defense is getting faster.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: I am shocked right now that if you look at
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: the future's odds for the a f C South Indianapolis
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: Colts plus one hundred Jacksonville Jaguars plus two, Like, it
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: makes no sense to me. What are people not seeing
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: about this Jaguars team that we're seeing because executive decision
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: this game, my friend and put on our list the
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: choice between the unthinkable and the impossible, executive decision, let's go.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: I think that's three straight weeks Chad's executive decision the Jaguars,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: it's probably gonna hit from again. No, last week my
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: executive decision was the Bengals, which you hated. That's fair.
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: Like the whole thing with me about those futures markets
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: is it's about the money. So unless unless the pros
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: and the public taking position, clearly, the books know what
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: they're doing. Because I saw the other day there win
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: their win total was still seven and a half eight
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: at some books. That's insane to me, Like the Jaguars
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: aren't gonna get to that number after what you've seen
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: through three weeks. So maybe the books are just being cautious, right,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: because like this happens a lot of time, teams get
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: off the hot starts and they just fade, like they
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: fade as the season goes along. I can't see it,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: like Trevor Lawrence throws this kid makes. There's just there's
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: only a handful of guys can make those kind of throws.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: And you see how important coaching is. Like Urban Meyer,
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: what a joke. Doug already tied him and wins career
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: wins in the NFL, and just two and three weeks
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: are running this Jaguars team, Like that's how bad Urban was.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: It's it's a team we love coming in for a
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: multiple Tudor reasons. Um, I'm trying to keep it together
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: because I'm so fired up about how good they are,
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: but just exciting if you're a Jaguar standard just a better.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: It's just been a really fun to start of the
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: year for this team that all the stuff we talked
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: about has proven out right. It's amazing. Like this is
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: when it's really important to watch all the games because
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: you can see things that you don't get from just
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: looking at the box scores. And you watch this Jaguars
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: team and they're just they bought in in every single way.
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: They smile, they they're just having fun and they believe.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: That's the belief button. Uh Seahawks on the road at
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: our favorite team in the NFL, the Detroit Lions. The
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: Lions are four and a half point favorites, look like Interestingly,
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: the majority of the bets, by a slight percentage, are
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: on the Seahawks. The majority of the money is on
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: the Lions at four and a half, I can tell
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: you a group I really respect. They hit this number
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: quick on the Seahawks. They they I don't know. I
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: don't think they're buying Detroit. Maybe it's because of the
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Swift news right, Maybe Swift me out to a big
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: deal to them. I think it is, by the way,
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: do you. I don't know. I just I feel like
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: Detroit is such a well oiled machine offensively. It's just
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: like Williams looked good last week. Run on the ball
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: for them. Um, obviously he's no Swift. Like Swift is
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: the game changer. I don't really have to do with
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: this game, brother, Like I liked, I like the Seehawks
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: at six. I thought that was a good number just
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: because Detroit's defense is gonna give opportunities for a back
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: door every game. They just when teams need to put
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: up points and score on them. I think they're gonna
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: be able to do that, just because their secondary isn't
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: that good yet. But four and a half, making start
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: thinking Detroit, Like it feels like I'm starting to get
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: value in Detroit now. So don't sitting here on Tuesday,
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: don't really know what what to do with this game. Maybe
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: I'll lose more money taking another taking another over in
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: a Detroit game and letting it go by half a
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: point under. But this is just a team that kind
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: of is just fun. Like we talked coming to the air.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Love their offense, tons of questions on defense. They are
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: one and two through three weeks because their defense can't
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: stop anybody. They couldn't stop the Eagles, they couldn't stop
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: the Vikings. It's tough. But that's that's the honestreet about
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: the tree right now. So Seahawks have shown me they
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: can move the ball surprisingly with Gino and those offensive
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: weapons like Locket Metcalf, they make plays six. I definitely
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: am on Seahawks. Four and a half, I start thinking Detroit,
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: but we'll see. By thirds, I'll probably have a better
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: opinion on this game. Yeah, I put that down to
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: the watch. It's it's in my watch category. Yeah. Um
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: Bears plus three and a half point underdogs at the
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: Giants could be a battle of the two worst two
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: and one teams in NFL history. I think the Giants
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: are a little bit better than the Bears, but not
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: by much. They're working with bad quarterbacks all across the board.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: The Giants offensive line made Cooper Rush look as good
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: as Dak Press out This game. No value here. I've
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: just got two bad teams and essentially the right number.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: I have no opinion. I don't want to bet it.
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: If it wasn't the Bears, I wouldn't want to watch it.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: I've been happy to take the Giants and minus three
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half because they are the better
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: team than me. But Chad's right three and a half.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: This feels a smart number. Maybe I'll just be on
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: the under and somehow get burned about these teams. Two
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: teams scoring. But I kind of watched a lot of
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: Bears film just because I'm hoping to see some flicker
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: of hope for Justin Fields here. But it's not good.
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: He's not reading defense. He's got a happy feet, he
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: pulls it down too quick. Now you look at the
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: side the ball and Daniel Jones. He can have flashes,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: he has moments. Just he is what he is. He's
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: an inconsistent He'll be gone out of this year kind
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: of quarterback. There's just there is no future for him
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: in New York again. They can make a crazy run
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: this year somehow to make the playoffs. And the Giants,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: I think them and the fans are just kind of
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: over the Danio Jones experience. We kind of know exactly
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: what he is. Um, So I'm with your chat. I'll
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: probably end have been on the under on this one,
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: um and the Giants, but this would never make our contest,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: just no real feel for it. But as a Bears fan,
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: your two on one, who would have thought had a
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: chance to be three and one after this game? Again?
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: You as much I want to show on the Bears.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: They could easily win this game. It's just a bizarre
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: season right now for this barrious team that I had
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: such little expectations for and here they are two on one.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: By the way, this might change everything you just said.
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: The line is now Giants minus three. Somebody must have
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: taken the Bears so across the board consensus line Giants
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: minus three. I think it's a pass for us. Yeah,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying, yeah, Like I'll throw a little in
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: that minus three, but this won't be my top ten
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: bets Chargers five point favorites at the Texans. Easy bet.
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: I knew as soon as it's never came out our
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: contest Texans every time. The Chargers have never any amount
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: of injuries. Guess who doesn't have any Texans. They're healthy.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: They just suck. But do they suck more than five
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: points against his Chargers team all banged up? Hell no?
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: Like again, Herbert had the day of his life and
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: burn us in this matchup. I am happy to pay
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: to see it. He's not right, Like, he didn't look
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: right in that game. He had two throws that only
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Herbert can make on third and five. The guy could
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: not make a completion to save his life. And he
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: had happy feet right like any normal humans with crack
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: ribs is gonna get a little scared in that pocket
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: after you get hit a couple of times. So the
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: fact that it moved off seven pisces me off because
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: the pros took it so early where it's like, you assholes,
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: how much one are you even getting down? What a
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: thousand bucks? And you're moving this number? That was annoying,
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: Like that's like in the professional ward. There's a little
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: bit of courtesy. They should have just waited they would
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: have kept this line up there because I think the
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: public would have came in on the Chargers and Texas
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: are viewed as the worst team and one of the
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: worst teams in football. There's two oh and one against
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: the spread, right, like the Texans have been in games,
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: they've been in close games. I'll take these I'll take
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: the points for this home dog. Again. We might get
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: talked out of it just because it's not a great number,
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: like we much rather have a six and a half
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: and seven, but against a banged up Charges defense and offense,
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: I gotta take this number of Texans. I just love
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: the fact that you're railing against greedy, wise guys right now.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: Good yeah, because it's a scumbag move. It's just you're
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: not getting any type of real money down. You're getting
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: a couple of schleckels, and they're like, they're like, all right,
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: we'll move it. Then, Like clearly they're taking a stance
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: here on a Sunday and Monday morning that that number
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: jumped out where that's when you could have just waited
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: on and you would have gave everyone else a good,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: good number to get on own. I love when you
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: try to go Yiddish. It warms my heart that you're
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: trying to connect with me in a real emotional way.
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: It's shekels what I say, that's affil of me. There's
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: a phrase kind of schlocky, which is like messy, lazy,
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: schlocky and shekels. What you basically did was say it
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: was combined. The two doesn't create a new definition of
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: what wise guys do when they're being greedy. I love it.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Print the shirts, way to go, my Hebrew friend. All right, Uh,
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: Cardinals on the road. At the Carolina Panthers, who we
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: have been loving, loving like they are they are firstborn children.
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: We cannot see any wrong in the Panthers right now.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: The Panthers are two and a half, yeah, two two
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: and a half. Chad knows we're gonna be on Carolina
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: and I hate it, but this is my life now.
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: So one or two in the year betting then that
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: came through for us last week and I barely had
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: a penny on them, So I'm down a shipload compared
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: to what I've won on them. I gotta take them here.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: The Arizona sucks like they just they have no identity
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: right now. I hate it. I don't even know, Like
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: I don't even want to do it, but I kind
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: of have to. Where it's Carolina A man again, I
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: probably won't put this in the contest because I can't
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: do the Baker thing. Like they didn't win last week
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: because of Baker. Baker, it was bad last week. They're
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: just no, no, they won last week, I know, but
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: they didn't win because of Baker. That's what I think.
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: I got it. I got yeah, Like that was more
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: like Winston. The Saints offense could do nothing in their
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: defense just dominated that game. I think it was like
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: ten nothing. He threw some little out route to his
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: receiver and his receiver took it eight yards and scored
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: it down and that was kind of the game. So
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: I'll be on a chat, but I'm just I'm not
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: gonna let you talk to me putting Carolina. I just
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: can't do it. Um. I just have no real read
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: on this team. But there's value there, Like this is
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: real value where you're getting under a field goal against
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: an Arizona team that's just bad. They're simply bad. Like
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: that Rams game. I think maybe ten people watched it
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: because it was just probably the more boring games of
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: the whole day, Rams dominated them and Arizona could not
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: get anything anything going. Like Caler Murray tried doing that
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: runaround thing. It only works when you're another two exhausted
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. Doesn't work in the first quarter
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: when the team's got their legs. So I don't really
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: have a feeling towards this Arizona team, Like I can't
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: get a good read on them, But what I do
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: know is they're bad. They are one of the bad
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: teams in football right now. So to me, I'll be
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: with Chad on Carolina. But I just can't put this
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: in the contest. I just can't do it. People don't
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: let me do it. Comes on day please, Oh believe
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: you me, my friend, It's gonna be an exciting Sunday.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: You're gonna have to follow along in the favorites, uh
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: in in follow the phase five in the Action Network
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: gap Patriots ten and half point dogs to the Packers,
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: No mac Jones, Brian Hoyer. It feels like a dangerous
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: spot to bet against the Patriots because Brian Hoyer obviously
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: not a starting caliber quarterback, but a reliable, steady back up.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: He's a professional. That's what I was looking for. Professional quarterback,
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: you can keep moving. I'll probably have been on Green
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: Bay because they historically beat the ship out of bad
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: teams in this weird position. But no, like I'm with you,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: I got no real read on it. I can't can't
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: really force it into the contest Patriots. To me, it
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: just seemed broken, and now that Mac's gone, I think
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: there will might be broken. So no, no real read. Honestly,
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: on this game, I'd probably be a chalk play or
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: just take the points just because I feel like everyone's
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: just gonna bet the dog in the spot. The Broncos
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: two point underdogs to the Las Vegas Raiders on the
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: road in Vegas. Boy, I gotta say, I love the
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: Broncos coming into the season. You love the Raiders coming
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: into the season. Turns out it's the Chiefs all along.
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: And you know, yeah, Chad saying I love the Raiders.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: I had them coming third in this division. I just
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: had the Broncos coming in fourth. That's That's what I'm
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: dealing with here. People. Um yeah, I don't know when
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: I first law was lying? What was your first instinct?
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: Live life in extremes? My friend? What is our first start?
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: We just take the Broncos, like the Raiders are fucking broken.
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: Josh McDaniels is already having a closed door meetings with
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: the owner, Oh the ship man, Like you think it's
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: a ship show up in Denver. No, they're doing one.
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: They're slowly figuring out. They at least have an identity,
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: they got a good defense, they got nothing seems like
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: down there in Vegas. So I don't know what I'm
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: gonna do with this one right now. I love Denver.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping whoever's betting the Raiders keep betting and maybe
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: I'll get it two and a half or three with Denver.
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: That'd be amazing. But to me, this is like, as
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: soon as I saw his number, I was like, all right,
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: Micha will have in the money line round Robin. It's
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: just we'll be on Denver. They at least know how
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: to win. I've seen nothing proven by this Vegas team
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: that they do. I'm gonna wait and see what Evan
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: ever put out on what to do with this number,
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: because I know there's a bunch of historical things where
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: I think that's oh and three oh and three ts.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: This tends to be a good week for them, So
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait and see before I make a bet
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: on this game. You can't get Broncos at plus two
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: and a half in some places. Yeah, that's I mean,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: that's pretty nice. Sunday Night football, the Chiefs are visiting
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers, so I said, we're gonna talk about the Chiefs.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: I do feel like this Chief's team is a little
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: more suspect than we think. They aren't the dominant and
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: team of years past. There's some some issues there. I
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: wouldn't say they're broken, you know, but they are not
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: as good as we thought after the first game. Evidenced
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: by the past two games, the Buccaneers might genuinely be
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: broken though, No, I don't think. I guess I'm just
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: a glass half full guy, right. My expectations are different.
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: Where it's like, I think they've looked really good and
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: the fact that they put the money step paying Tyrekan
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: and their defense and their defense is played well as well.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: I'm excited, like it makes me happy about betting them.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Where it's just early weeks. They're kind of figuring out
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: what the hell they are. I know exactly what I'm
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: getting from his Chiefs team come j anyway, Like I
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: know exactly what I'm getting from my homes. I know
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: he curally can't be beat unless he beats himself. That's
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: what happened yesterday. He beat himself in that game. Like
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: Kelsey would that drop on the end zone? What can
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: you do? So to me, I don't overreact to it. Um, Honestly,
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: everything I've seen the FC, every team just has glaring
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: weaknesses and everyone's kind of drop trying to just dodge
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: this injury book. It feels like all these teams are
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: getting sneaked. But I mean, how the Bills they got
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: lucky Gabe Davis came back. You don't look right last week,
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: and then you look at their defense, they're just having
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: the guys drop all across ther secondary. I mean, the
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: Bengals just lost their nose tackle. They're just all these
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: teams are losing key position players where the Chiefs really haven't.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: And I'm with you, like they looked rough last week.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: They had moments they left last players on the field.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: I think there are three for twelve on third downs,
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: which is like very out of body experience from my homes.
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: But that was a trap game, right cheat. We're all
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: over that one trying not to over react to it,
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: and then this number comes out, This Tampa number came
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: out two and a half. Holy shit, Like what that
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: the books are they set another trap? Here are they
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: really they were really doing it like that was That's
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: what's happening, and it is like they're clearly saying go
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: ahead that the Chiefs. We really believe in this Buccaneers defense,
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: that they're gonna be a different in this game. Because
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: as much as I want to agree with Chad they're broken,
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: I don't think they are. I think, literally, once I
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: get these guys back, this team is just going to
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: be exactly what we know they are. The Buccaneers are
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to put up points and have one
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: of the best defenses of football, and like to me,
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: if you want to bet their futures, I still think
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: there's values on the Bucks to win NFC. I know
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: the Eagles are getting all the hype right now, I
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: still think. I'm January Tom Brady comes up to Philadelphia,
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be scared and I'll probably have him as
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: a slight favorite over the Seagules team in late January.
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: So as much I want to bash his Buccaneers team,
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: maybe I won't bet him this week because of all
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: the nonsense of the hurricane. This game might be moved
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: up now to Minnesota. That's a big deal because to me,
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: playing that home field in Tampa and that heat, that's
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: an advantage for the Florida team. Like we saw last week,
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Tampa came all the way back on Green Band in
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: that second half. It's a it's a big deal that
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: heat bill has burned down the second half against Miami team. UM,
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: this game moves with the Minnesota Oh shit, whatever, this
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: line will reopen. I think it might roopen and minus
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: four or minus five for the Cincinnati team. Uh, the
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: Chief's team, I should say. And your bets been avoided,
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: so you can you can bet the Chiefs now. It's
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: it's most like you're gonna be avoided once they moved
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: this game to either Miami or they moved up to Minnesota.
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: Wherever they're gonna move it to. UM, it's gonna be
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: a dead number. But in in it is very talent
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: that the books opened this number the where they did
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: because they're clearly with what Chad said. Like the books,
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: they got a lot of questions right now about the
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: Chiefs team, and that's gonna make me, I need to
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: reevaluate them if they do lose the books this week.
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: But to me, I kind of throw last week out.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: I just said it was just one of those games.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: I think it'll be a really fun game to watch.
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: It's not in our contest. Rams two and a half
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: point dogs to the forty Niners on Monday night in
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: the Bay Area. This is a pro Joe right now.
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: It's bets on the Rams, money on the Niners. Yeah,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: short home favorites. Everything says bet the Niners here. Kyle
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: Shannon is not great in these spots and they just
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: lost arguably the most important player on offense, Trent Williams. Right.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: I think I think we're getting word now that he
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: might be gone for a couple of weeks. That's massive.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: Soon as he went out against the Broncos that they
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: could not do a thing, Yeah, and Jimmy looked terrified.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: So historically he actually owns the Rams like this. That
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: last year in that playoffs, that was the first time
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: the Rams and McVeigh had beaten them and forever, like
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: right when this never came out, I was like, Oh,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: I want to be all over this four ninetis team.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: And then I remembered ship. Dude, They're they're literally their
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: offensive line is in shambles now. Um, Jimmy's no tray Lands.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: He can't move around and run away from that type
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: of blitz. So yeah, I would say it's most likely
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: I'll be on the Rams and the dog. Um, I'm
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: just gonna take the money line right now, and if
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: it gets up the three, I'll take the number. But
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: the two and a half, I'll just take the money
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: out of the Rams because I just think they're gonna
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: win out right. Oh that's interesting. If you think they're
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: gonna win out right, then why wouldn't we be debating
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: to have the Rams is two and a half point
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: dogs in the contest. Well, that's more many playing the
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: number in the value. I know people talk about two
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: and a half doesn't matter in these kind of games.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: I usually like divisional games like this, I usually just
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: take the money line out right, like I did last
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: night with the Cowboys. I think Cowboys were one and
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: a half or two. I just took the money line. Um,
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: the same thing with here. It's like if it's three,
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: which I always talked about such a key number, even
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: to an asking Remember three to me is the real
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: key number, then I'll take that number. And especially our
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: contest jaff it's three, I would definitely take it. But
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: I just hate when we do our contests and say
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: we do go four and now I hate that weight
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: that weighs the money night thing. It's truly the fucking worst.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: So that's that's the only reason I I right now
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: is say I probably wouldn't, but I just want people
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: to know I am gonna bet the Rams. I am
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: gonna take their money line. That's when we make mistakes,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: We get caught up in the emotional decisions, don't make
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: the right decisions. So we need to suffer a little
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: bit on Monday. But you know what, it also is
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: something to look forward to. Think about it as an
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: opportunity for us. Right I'm putting the Rams down on
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: our list right now, our foxhole is Ravens plus three
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: and a half. Simon says, Steelers minus three exact decision
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: Jack's plus six and a half. We are keeping an
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: eye on those three teams. Ravens three and a half,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: Steelers minus three, Jacks plus six and a half for
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: three of our faiths for five. Texas plus five is
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: on the list. And then we are keep we are watching,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: we are watching as candidates. I put it on this
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: list Commanders plus three and a half, Falcon's plus two,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: Detroit minus four and a half, Panthers minus two and
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: a half, Broncos plus two and a half, nine uh
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: and Rams plus two and a half. Not a lot
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: of games that we feel strongly about from that list,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: So we'll have to see if some news comes out
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: or anything else. All the lines, Brother, they're like two
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: two and a half, three survivor. It feels like we
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: only have one choice, and that being Green Bay. Yeah. Well,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: obviously we'll talk about it again on our next show,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: but you gotta get it in now. How can you
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: not go Green Bay in this position at home against
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: his Patriots team that you know, I get they're gonna
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: be desperate, but they just don't have the skills to
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: really make you worry in this game. And the fact
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: that it's the biggest spread by far this week. It's
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: hard to pass on the screen Bay in this position
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: because again, their their division is good, like maybe you
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: already use them against the Bears. So I don't know
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: who you'd want to go for the second team, because
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: I just have nothing else that really jumps out, Like
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: you could go Giants at home against the Bears. That
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: feels very risky. Could go Bengals if you didn't use
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: them with us last week against the Dolphins again, that
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: feels risky. So to me, the biggest spread, the safest
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: one this week is Green Bay. It's so hard because
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: that's when you fall into the trap right every time.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: This past week, Wills, Chiefs, and Chargers were all all
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: open to seven point favorites. Yeah, and like again, that's
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: that's the hardest part by doing this, and like people
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: that took the Vikings, we got lucky. Like that was
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: they missed the field goal. They could have gone for
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: it all fourth down. That game was probably gonna be
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: over for Detroit. That's kind of how you live and
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: die with these survivor pools. It's just survive in advance.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: So I'll play Chalky this week because nothing really jumps out,
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: like I just don't want to do the Chargers with
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: it banged up Herbert against the Texans. I'm gonna go
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: with Green Bay here, all right, that's all we got
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: for this show. We will be back later in the week.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: We'll try to nail down our faith five will bring
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: back the big balls. Better the week for Simon Hunter,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: for Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Millman. Download the favorite
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: podcast from Apple, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: Leave us five stars, rate review, subscribe, say whatever you want.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Until next time, I Love you,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: hm hmm