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Puerto Rico Emergency Funds Are Protected: Rossello (Podcast) · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel podcast. I'm Paul swing you.
0:05
Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits. Each day
0:07
Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for
0:10
Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or
0:12
Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple
0:15
Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as
0:17
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Puerto Rico has been the focus
0:22
Speaker 1: of a lot of attention from the United States, both
0:24
Speaker 1: in terms of recovery from the devastating Hurricane Maria as
0:28
Speaker 1: well as in its attempt to restructure it's dead. I
0:31
Speaker 1: am very pleased to say that we have with US
0:33
Speaker 1: Governor card Rosseo. He is the twelfth governor of Puerto
0:37
Speaker 1: Rico and he joins us from our nitedal and studios
0:40
Speaker 1: in Washington, d C. Governor, I'm just wondering whether you
0:44
Speaker 1: have some particular item that you are hoping to hear
0:47
Speaker 1: from President Trump to night at the State of the Union. Well,
0:50
Speaker 1: there's uh, there's many items I would be very much
0:53
Speaker 1: interested in hearing. But I would say that from our
0:56
Speaker 1: vintage point, making sure that the recovery process in Puerto
0:59
Speaker 1: ric and elsewhere in the nation. UH is one of
1:03
Speaker 1: the priorities that we can focus on getting the funding
1:06
Speaker 1: to the places that have a need to rebuild UH
1:08
Speaker 1: and to recover. And I I think that is UH
1:11
Speaker 1: important to state that that is a priority and funds
1:16
Speaker 1: that are destined to those jurisdictions are not going to
1:19
Speaker 1: be utilized to say, build a wall. I think it's
1:23
Speaker 1: a it's an important outcome. So, Governor, how much has
1:26
Speaker 1: Puerto Rico received in UH A recovery funding funder federal government?
1:30
Speaker 1: And compare that to what you had hoped for at
1:33
Speaker 1: this stage? Are you sure? I'm guess you're gonna say
1:36
Speaker 1: you're short and there's a deficit. Just give us a
1:38
Speaker 1: sense of the scale, yep. So, So to give you
1:40
Speaker 1: a sense of the scale, we've been working with FEMA
1:42
Speaker 1: and other stakeholders on what the transformation and rebuild plans
1:47
Speaker 1: should be for Puerto Rico. The estimated cost at this
1:51
Speaker 1: juncture is it's a hundred and thirty nine billion dollars UH.
1:55
Speaker 1: Last year, UH, we've we've received probably from FEMA UH
2:00
Speaker 1: anywhere from three to three and a half billion dollars.
2:03
Speaker 1: And our expectation, of course is is to get that
2:06
Speaker 1: pumped much higher. UM we UH. There there are some
2:10
Speaker 1: reasons why this process has been slow, and it's because
2:13
Speaker 1: it's different in Puerto Rico than in other jurisdictions in
2:16
Speaker 1: the United States. For example, in Florida or Texas or
2:20
Speaker 1: any other state, the state controls the disimbursement process, whereas
2:24
Speaker 1: in Puerto Rico, FEMA controls it. And you might ask, well,
2:27
Speaker 1: what would be that outcome? Well, a comparison should should
2:31
Speaker 1: highlight what the order of magnitude differences. UH. Take Katrina
2:36
Speaker 1: when uh it impacted Louisiana by the same time after
2:41
Speaker 1: the hurricane UH that that we're measuring against Maria passing
2:45
Speaker 1: through Puerto Rico, they had already UH nine thousand, five
2:49
Speaker 1: hundred projects that were being moved forward, whereas in Puerto
2:54
Speaker 1: Rico we only have forty four. So there you can
2:58
Speaker 1: sort of sense a scale of the magnitude difference of
3:02
Speaker 1: what where we should be now in the recovery and
3:05
Speaker 1: UH our sense for petitioning that these restraints UH that
3:10
Speaker 1: are pre placed in Puerto Rico should be should be
3:13
Speaker 1: taken away. You you you started off saying that you
3:15
Speaker 1: want to see what President Trump has planned with respect
3:19
Speaker 1: to potentially diverting money away from Puerto Rico among other
3:23
Speaker 1: places to pay for the wall. What recourse would you
3:27
Speaker 1: potentially have if he goes ahead and does that, which
3:29
Speaker 1: is what he's threatened to do. So, so this is interesting.
3:32
Speaker 1: I've about four months ago. UH. You know, my job
3:36
Speaker 1: as governors is not only to act but also to anticipate,
3:39
Speaker 1: and UH I had a sense that this might be
3:42
Speaker 1: a discussion where funding for recovery would be utilized to
3:47
Speaker 1: build a wall. So we prepared our team, UH and
3:50
Speaker 1: we started studying all of the legal avenues that we have,
3:53
Speaker 1: and we have a very robust case. I mean some
3:56
Speaker 1: of the moneys that are coming to Puerto Rico, UH,
3:59
Speaker 1: the commu Unity Development blog rents that are used to
4:03
Speaker 1: uh TO for disaster relief. Those were passed by Congress
4:07
Speaker 1: and they were signed by the president. So UH, those
4:11
Speaker 1: are statute right now and we feel very comfortably confident
4:14
Speaker 1: that those moneys have to go to Puerto Rico. So
4:16
Speaker 1: if there was any dipping there, um, we would certainly
4:20
Speaker 1: battle it. So for most of the money's we have
4:23
Speaker 1: a strategy forward and of course we hope we don't
4:27
Speaker 1: have to get there. We hope that the president would
4:29
Speaker 1: see that. You know, rebuilding U s citizens lives is
4:33
Speaker 1: a priority. But if it gets to that point, we
4:36
Speaker 1: are ready to battle. So covernor let's talk about the
4:39
Speaker 1: rebuilding process in Puerto Rico. I'm sure you have a
4:42
Speaker 1: priority list. Give us a sense of given where you
4:44
Speaker 1: are right now, you know, a year plus removed from
4:47
Speaker 1: the hurricane, you know what are the t one of
4:49
Speaker 1: you know the one or two or three critical things
4:51
Speaker 1: that Puerto Ricans need right now to be addressed. I
4:55
Speaker 1: think in terms of projects, I would say the energy
4:58
Speaker 1: grid UH is a top priority. We have a very
5:02
Speaker 1: weak old energy grid that uses UH expensive fossil fuel,
5:08
Speaker 1: and our objective is to use recovery funding and private
5:12
Speaker 1: partners to leverage that and rebuild a modern energy grid
5:15
Speaker 1: that's more cost effective and that it is better for
5:18
Speaker 1: the environment and that frankly, can be a model towards
5:21
Speaker 1: the future. I think we're building roads in Puerto Rico
5:24
Speaker 1: and infrastructure is UH fundamental, fundamentally critical for our economy
5:31
Speaker 1: moving forward. And the other part is addressing our our
5:35
Speaker 1: labor force and the labor participation rate. UH. You know,
5:38
Speaker 1: with these recovery funds that are coming to Puerto Rico,
5:41
Speaker 1: with the incentives that are very competitive that we have
5:44
Speaker 1: on the island, with the opportunity zones that will bring
5:48
Speaker 1: about many investment opportunities to to the island, I think
5:52
Speaker 1: we have a window of opportunity to enhance and grow
5:56
Speaker 1: that labor participation rate. Governor I meanwhile made all of
6:00
Speaker 1: the talk with President Trump. Meanwhile, Bankruptcy Court has approved
6:05
Speaker 1: a planned restructure some of the seventy four billion dollars
6:08
Speaker 1: of debt that the island has UH sales tax bonds
6:12
Speaker 1: are rallying on this news. It has been this is
6:15
Speaker 1: this accounts for about seventeen billion dollars of bonds and
6:18
Speaker 1: basically they were on according to my understanding, the sales
6:21
Speaker 1: tax collected by the state would be split between the
6:24
Speaker 1: bond holders and the state. How can you be sure
6:28
Speaker 1: that you'll get enough revenues to be able to engage
6:30
Speaker 1: in some of these projects without just the benevolence of Washington,
6:34
Speaker 1: d C. Right, So, so you know, the rebuild of
6:37
Speaker 1: Puerto Rico has many UH many faces. One is on
6:42
Speaker 1: the fiscal front, one is on the economic front, and
6:45
Speaker 1: of course now the Humanian, Humanitarian and Structural Fund UH.
6:50
Speaker 1: Once we devised. This is based on a fiscal plan
6:53
Speaker 1: that has been devised where implementing certain structural changes would
6:58
Speaker 1: allow us to get avings in government while at the
7:01
Speaker 1: same time enhance our our revenues because our economy is
7:04
Speaker 1: moving forward. We've implemented UH labor reform in Puerto Rico,
7:08
Speaker 1: We've implemented permits reform in Puerto Rico, tax reform UH,
7:13
Speaker 1: as well as other critical structural changes that we feel
7:16
Speaker 1: are going to help us enhance and UH Puerto Rico
7:21
Speaker 1: UH moving forward. So with with all of those components inline, UH,
7:28
Speaker 1: we we see a path that once we clear away
7:31
Speaker 1: restructuring of the debt, with the expected surplus or part
7:36
Speaker 1: of the expected surplus that there is, we're gonna have
7:38
Speaker 1: a nice runway forward to increase our economy and to
7:43
Speaker 1: add significant value. Look, we're betting on nascent markets UM,
7:49
Speaker 1: We're betting on medical cannabis in Puerto Rico. We're betting
7:53
Speaker 1: on cryptocurrency and UM and blood chain in Puerto Rico.
7:58
Speaker 1: We are betting on HEMP as a as an open
8:01
Speaker 1: market E gaming, sports booking. All of those are markets
8:04
Speaker 1: that are not readily available now in Puerto rican that
8:07
Speaker 1: we're pushing forward. So combined with a lot of the
8:10
Speaker 1: things that we have going on in our island, it's
8:12
Speaker 1: gonna be an exciting time moving forward if we get
8:15
Speaker 1: these debt process of governors. Thank you so much for
8:18
Speaker 1: joining us and sharing your valuable time. Governor Ricardo ros Yo,
8:21
Speaker 1: Governor of Puerto Rico, from the Bloomberg Studios in Washington,
8:24
Speaker 1: d C, Puerto Rico. We were just talking to the
8:41
Speaker 1: Governor Ricardo Rosseo about the situation on the island with
8:45
Speaker 1: respect to its seventy four billion dollars in debt. We
8:48
Speaker 1: do have an agreement with at least seventeen billion dollars
8:51
Speaker 1: of sales tax bonds joining us here in our Bloomberg
8:53
Speaker 1: Atta Active Brokers studios. Michelle Kaski, Puerto Rico, reporter for
8:56
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News, as well as Dan Salander, partner and director.
9:01
Speaker 1: I was also head of municipal bonds at Lord Abbott
9:04
Speaker 1: UH normally in Jersey City, but he joins us here
9:06
Speaker 1: in New York. Michell, I want to start with you.
9:08
Speaker 1: There was an agreement reached and signed off on in
9:11
Speaker 1: bankruptcy court. What was it yesterday? The bankruptcy judge she
9:15
Speaker 1: approved this deal. It's it's the biggest deal so far
9:19
Speaker 1: throughout this Puerto Rico bankruptcy process. And right now Puerto
9:23
Speaker 1: Rico has about more than seventeen billion of sales tax bonds.
9:27
Speaker 1: This deal will cut that down to about twelve billion,
9:31
Speaker 1: and over the life of the debt, the government is
9:34
Speaker 1: saying that they're going to save seventeen point five billion
9:37
Speaker 1: in debt service savings. So, Dan, this is I guess
9:39
Speaker 1: we could characterize this as a very good and very
9:42
Speaker 1: welcome first step. Where do we go from here? Where
9:44
Speaker 1: does the Puerto Rico credit market go from here? In
9:46
Speaker 1: your opinion? Sure, Well, you know it's a very interesting stage.
9:49
Speaker 1: You know, if you if you thought about where we
9:51
Speaker 1: would be a couple of years ago. To reach the
9:52
Speaker 1: stage is taking a lot to get here. It's a
9:54
Speaker 1: very positive step that we have in agreement, um, but
9:57
Speaker 1: there is a lot more to do from here. You know.
9:58
Speaker 1: One of the big things in this whole process has
10:01
Speaker 1: been to figure out who gets a sales tax money.
10:03
Speaker 1: That's been the big first step. Now that that's been
10:05
Speaker 1: agreed upon and we have a deal. Once we get
10:07
Speaker 1: this finished, then the general Gation, shareholders and all the
10:11
Speaker 1: difference constituents there need to figure out how to divide
10:13
Speaker 1: up their sales tax and their money. So that's the
10:16
Speaker 1: next step that we'll see soon. Well, but Dan, just
10:19
Speaker 1: to follow up there, another question is how feasible will
10:22
Speaker 1: Porto Rico's capital structure be once it emerges from bankruptcy,
10:26
Speaker 1: and if it's splitting the sales tax revenue between bond
10:29
Speaker 1: holders uh and itself and its operations, how feasible is
10:34
Speaker 1: that with a shrinking population. Sure, the Portricos I was
10:39
Speaker 1: not a booming economy, but they're doing much better than
10:41
Speaker 1: people realize. Uh. You know that the revenue is this
10:43
Speaker 1: year away hundreds of millions, six hundred millions, something ahead
10:46
Speaker 1: of the forecast population drop and nowhere near what was expected.
10:50
Speaker 1: So things are doing much better than people might have expected.
10:52
Speaker 1: So there, and they're getting a lot of money from
10:54
Speaker 1: the federal government, so this helps them. It reduces their debt.
10:57
Speaker 1: Some of these bonds are zero coupons and don't want
10:59
Speaker 1: to pay interest or press went for a long time,
11:01
Speaker 1: so they're putting themselves in a good state to turn
11:04
Speaker 1: things around and really move towards the future. So, Michelle,
11:06
Speaker 1: how good is this agreement for bond holders? What do
11:10
Speaker 1: you think the recoveries will be for them. Um. Some
11:13
Speaker 1: people think that bond holders did very very well on
11:15
Speaker 1: this deal. The there's two types of the Cofeinea bonds.
11:19
Speaker 1: There's a senior tronch and a junior tron such subordinate.
11:22
Speaker 1: The seniors will get cents on the dollar subordinate fifty
11:25
Speaker 1: six cents on the dollar, and the bonds in the
11:28
Speaker 1: secondary have been trading um close to that. They're getting
11:31
Speaker 1: closer to that um and they've rallied in the past
11:35
Speaker 1: couple of days. The m so cents on the dollar
11:40
Speaker 1: is pretty good for seniors, all right, So Dan, would
11:42
Speaker 1: you be buying more Puerto Rico debt here? It's it's
11:45
Speaker 1: tough at this stage to say whether whether to buy
11:46
Speaker 1: or so. I think we've all been through a lot
11:48
Speaker 1: getting to this point. What's gonna be interesting is when
11:51
Speaker 1: the sales Tex deal comes to gets to agreed upon
11:54
Speaker 1: and issued, they're gonna be a lot of buyers out
11:56
Speaker 1: there didn't known Puerto Rico through this, so they're gonna
11:58
Speaker 1: have to make that decision. We would get the new
12:00
Speaker 1: bonds of what to do, Yeah, well, is it a
12:02
Speaker 1: net positive for you or not negative? That a lot
12:04
Speaker 1: of traditional mutual fund holders have gotten back into Puerto
12:08
Speaker 1: Rico debt, so we're at a traditional say through this time, UM,
12:12
Speaker 1: and when they're getting back in right now, they're getting
12:14
Speaker 1: back in through accrack and sewer bonds, things like that
12:17
Speaker 1: that are paying and have never been in default. I
12:19
Speaker 1: think it could be a big positive for us when
12:21
Speaker 1: this deal comes gets restructure. We have new bonds they're
12:24
Speaker 1: gonna want to buy and uh, you know, they're gonna
12:26
Speaker 1: be interest paying bonds in Puerto Rico that they don't know,
12:28
Speaker 1: and so it could be a good thing for us.
12:30
Speaker 1: So Michelle, well, this has been a fairly long process.
12:33
Speaker 1: I'm sure if you're a bond holder, a very long process.
12:35
Speaker 1: What do you think our next steps here as this
12:37
Speaker 1: as Puerto rican continues to try to get out from
12:39
Speaker 1: this financial crisis. Yeah, it's definitely important. Like Dan was
12:42
Speaker 1: mentioning earlier, it's important that Puerto Rico keeps on with
12:46
Speaker 1: this and Rick structures the general obligation debt so there
12:49
Speaker 1: can be some resolution to that, and then there will
12:51
Speaker 1: be some smaller portions of debt that they'll still need
12:54
Speaker 1: to work on. UM. And also the issue too of
12:58
Speaker 1: their their unfunded pension liabilities as those are a big
13:02
Speaker 1: issue for the island. Also the question of management, Dan,
13:06
Speaker 1: what's your confidence right now in the management of the island.
13:09
Speaker 1: The ability to take the money that they're receiving from
13:12
Speaker 1: the federal government and use it in an efficient way. Well,
13:14
Speaker 1: that's something they have to watch carefully. Obviously, the management
13:17
Speaker 1: got them in this situation originally, and that's why we've
13:20
Speaker 1: been working through this for so many years. The federal
13:22
Speaker 1: r government has been giving them money. It's not all
13:24
Speaker 1: been distributed to them yet, so we have to see
13:26
Speaker 1: what they do with that money when they get it.
13:27
Speaker 1: So much do you have a sense of how much.
13:30
Speaker 1: I saw some number like maybe sixty seventy eight billion
13:33
Speaker 1: dollars of potentially they can get from the government in
13:35
Speaker 1: different ways. So there is a lot of money going
13:37
Speaker 1: to them. And we had the governor on just earlier
13:40
Speaker 1: and he said quite emphatically that he's going to get
13:42
Speaker 1: that money. They they they've they've been granted it, so
13:46
Speaker 1: a lot of it has been already given to them,
13:48
Speaker 1: or at least the expectations been given to them, and
13:49
Speaker 1: they've been planning for us. It would be very difficult
13:51
Speaker 1: for them if they didn't get what was to they begetting.
13:53
Speaker 1: So from the bond market perspective, how does the bond
13:56
Speaker 1: market view Puerto Rico now? I mean, you know, at
13:58
Speaker 1: some point they're gonna have to come back to the market.
13:59
Speaker 1: At some point they're going to have to you know,
14:01
Speaker 1: refinance and and continue to invest. How do you think
14:04
Speaker 1: they're gonna be received? That's the big challenge. I mean,
14:07
Speaker 1: coming out of this, they're gonna have to do much better.
14:09
Speaker 1: I mean one of the issues we've had over time
14:11
Speaker 1: as they have not had audited state financials on time,
14:14
Speaker 1: they have not presented information shows they need to bottles
14:17
Speaker 1: that need to provide. So coming out of this, they're
14:19
Speaker 1: gonna be on watch. I mean, they're gonna have to
14:21
Speaker 1: do things much better than they did before to get
14:23
Speaker 1: the confidence in the market. And until they do, if
14:26
Speaker 1: they want to borrow, the rates are going to be very,
14:27
Speaker 1: very high compared to other similarly rated credits. So it's
14:30
Speaker 1: something to watch. They it's hard. You know, everyone's gonna
14:33
Speaker 1: remember this for a long period of time. We have
14:34
Speaker 1: long memories. Dan Salinder, congratulations on being in the bonds
14:38
Speaker 1: through this rocky period because the prices have way more
14:41
Speaker 1: than double. Depending on what we're looking at, when you
14:43
Speaker 1: look at the Cofinea bonds. Dan Salinder is partner and
14:46
Speaker 1: director as well as head of Municipal Bonds at Lord
14:49
Speaker 1: Abbott in Jersey City. Michelle Kaski's Puerto Rico reporter, dutifully
14:53
Speaker 1: covering all things having to do with the saga as
14:55
Speaker 1: it drags out over the years. Uh. For us here
14:59
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg News, well, it's been a widely held story
15:17
Speaker 1: and news that the newspaper business has been in a
15:19
Speaker 1: secular decline for twenty to thirty years. No news, no
15:22
Speaker 1: surprise there, but what we've seen over the last several
15:25
Speaker 1: years as a growth of digital media companies, digital news
15:28
Speaker 1: companies such as Vice and BuzzFeed and huff Posts. But
15:31
Speaker 1: even it looks like they are facing their day of reckoning.
15:34
Speaker 1: We'll dig in a little bit there. So help us
15:37
Speaker 1: dive into those details is Build. Drewelry Bills, a founding
15:40
Speaker 1: partner of Pursuit Advisory based here in New York City.
15:43
Speaker 1: He joins us in our Bloomberg eleven three oh Studios
15:45
Speaker 1: builds a longtime investment banker and research channels following the
15:48
Speaker 1: media sector. So so build these companies the vices of
15:51
Speaker 1: the world, these digital news companies. They were getting big valuations,
15:54
Speaker 1: attracting a lot of money, and I think they were
15:56
Speaker 1: perceived maybe as the future of news, maybe replace the newspapers.
16:01
Speaker 1: What's going on on that space? Well, interesting, interesting times
16:06
Speaker 1: for everybody in the media sector right now, Paul, I
16:08
Speaker 1: think that you're correct. In the last five or six years,
16:12
Speaker 1: there was a new sort of wave of of darling
16:15
Speaker 1: companies Fist being one of them, BuzzFeed, Vox, etcetera, that
16:19
Speaker 1: really rose up and and competed in the in the
16:23
Speaker 1: digital arena in terms of news content and general entertainment content.
16:28
Speaker 1: They were experiencing very rapid revenue growth and market share
16:34
Speaker 1: and as a result were accorded major valuations with a
16:37
Speaker 1: lot of investment from old line media strategics like NBC.
16:41
Speaker 1: Universal invested in both BuzzFeed and Fox in the summer
16:46
Speaker 1: at billion dollar valuations, and Disney invested in Vice twice
16:52
Speaker 1: and at the last round that Disney invested it was
16:56
Speaker 1: over four billion dollars. And they also formed a joint
16:58
Speaker 1: venture with Ice uh taking one of their A and
17:02
Speaker 1: E cable networks and converting it into Viceland. So it
17:05
Speaker 1: was the new media entering the arena to the old
17:09
Speaker 1: traditional media, but they were getting valuations that were based
17:13
Speaker 1: on revenue multiples and not the traditional cash flow metrics.
17:17
Speaker 1: And over the last two years, I think that what
17:19
Speaker 1: we've seen is a lot of these companies now start
17:22
Speaker 1: to see growth rates recede and and not being able
17:27
Speaker 1: to reach profitability with you know, aggressive investment and not
17:31
Speaker 1: a lot of cost management, and as a result, all
17:33
Speaker 1: of a sudden, they're starting to hit the wall. Okay,
17:36
Speaker 1: so how much is this bad management on the part
17:39
Speaker 1: of these uh, these media companies, these digital media companies
17:43
Speaker 1: or imprudent management And how much is this some sort
17:47
Speaker 1: of shift in the news business towards say the facebooks
17:51
Speaker 1: of the world and the apples of the world. Yeah,
17:54
Speaker 1: well two questions there, and I think that on the
17:56
Speaker 1: on the first one, you know, it's just a classic
17:58
Speaker 1: case of of companies that are getting high valuations and
18:03
Speaker 1: a lot of inflows of investment capital and then rapidly
18:08
Speaker 1: deploying that to go after revenue growth with no real
18:11
Speaker 1: fundamental cost management attached to it. We've seen this for
18:15
Speaker 1: multiple cycles over the last twenty years with the rise
18:18
Speaker 1: of digital. Every cycle has been marked by companies unable
18:23
Speaker 1: to reach profitability and and the third time around it's
18:26
Speaker 1: the same story. So I think that, you know, it's
18:28
Speaker 1: it's very classic in that regard. On the other side,
18:31
Speaker 1: I think that you know, you've seen this this this
18:35
Speaker 1: rise of these new digital platforms up and they produce
18:38
Speaker 1: excellent news content, but they can't monetize it because Google, Facebook,
18:43
Speaker 1: and to some degree now Amazon have basically just sucked
18:46
Speaker 1: all the oxygen out of the market. They are growing
18:49
Speaker 1: and basically taking over a hundred percent share of incremental opportunity,
18:54
Speaker 1: and there's nothing left for the next generation. It's unique
18:57
Speaker 1: in that regard. So that sounds is like, you know,
19:00
Speaker 1: if you think about the profit challenges that you talked about,
19:02
Speaker 1: you think about the competitive landscape, this looks like an
19:06
Speaker 1: environment that might be right for some consolidation. Do you
19:08
Speaker 1: think that we will see some of these companies merged
19:12
Speaker 1: to try to get some scale to compete against spoken
19:14
Speaker 1: like a true banker, like a true banker opportunity. Absolutely,
19:17
Speaker 1: I think that I think that it's it's going to
19:21
Speaker 1: be inevitable, and probably sooner rather than later. Paul. Part
19:24
Speaker 1: of the question is going to be how many of
19:26
Speaker 1: these companies can even really survive just in the last
19:30
Speaker 1: twelve to eighteen months, we've seen several companies go bankrupt.
19:34
Speaker 1: DeFi Media is one good example, a company that had
19:38
Speaker 1: over a hundred million of dollars of revenue just year
19:42
Speaker 1: before last major investment from UM, large complexes like Wellington
19:47
Speaker 1: and shareholders like Viacom, lions Gate and zell Nick Media,
19:53
Speaker 1: and the company basically just went out of business in
19:55
Speaker 1: the last six months exited UM and And we've also
19:59
Speaker 1: seen several other smaller companies that had strategic shareholders sell
20:04
Speaker 1: for valuations far less than where they last raised capital.
20:08
Speaker 1: So it's inevitable that they have to consolidate. The question
20:11
Speaker 1: is who can survive through that? So content is king,
20:14
Speaker 1: but only if it's content on Apple, Amazon, or Google.
20:18
Speaker 1: I think that I think that's a good point. It
20:20
Speaker 1: is virtually impossible to build scale now in this market,
20:26
Speaker 1: revenue scale with a real profit margin attached to it,
20:29
Speaker 1: and compete against the three or four behemoths. Interesting times
20:34
Speaker 1: it is I have to wonder it is. It is
20:36
Speaker 1: fascinating because I have to wonder what the competition will
20:39
Speaker 1: end up looking like, what conglomerate of some of these
20:42
Speaker 1: online media sources will look like. Because they were successful.
20:45
Speaker 1: It's not. You know, it's been of throwing the baby
20:47
Speaker 1: out with about bathwaters and I'll tell you and builds
20:49
Speaker 1: a long time new newspaper animals. I'll tell you where
20:51
Speaker 1: the whole is that the digital world has not filled,
20:53
Speaker 1: and that is local news. We've got national, global news,
20:56
Speaker 1: but we have no local news and that is a problem.
20:59
Speaker 1: And whoever can figure about that model, I think we'll
21:01
Speaker 1: have a real opportunity. Bill Drewy, if you're listening, you
21:05
Speaker 1: are listening. Paul is giving some We'll have to have
21:09
Speaker 1: you back and you'll have to weigh in on the
21:11
Speaker 1: local news. Bill Drewery, founding partner of Pursuit Advisors in
21:14
Speaker 1: New York, joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios.
21:31
Speaker 1: The Fed is patient and investors you that is all
21:34
Speaker 1: clear to dive back into risk, fueling one of the
21:38
Speaker 1: best rallies on record for it certainly high old bonds
21:42
Speaker 1: to start the year. Joining us now is Tom Kennedy,
21:44
Speaker 1: had a fixed income strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank,
21:47
Speaker 1: which has assets of more than five hundred billion dollars.
21:50
Speaker 1: Tom worked at the New York Fed for nearly a decade.
21:54
Speaker 1: Knows how the Fed thanks so Tom what does the
21:58
Speaker 1: FED mean when they say they are going to be
22:00
Speaker 1: patient with raising rates? Yeah, I think the I think
22:02
Speaker 1: the markets interpreting it the right way. Least they're giving
22:04
Speaker 1: the Feds giving us a runway for risk. We're are
22:07
Speaker 1: gonna have to ask ourselves how long is that runway?
22:09
Speaker 1: But that word patient means something to them. They've only
22:12
Speaker 1: used it in the fform C statement a handful of
22:14
Speaker 1: times in history. That's parsing language. Oh yeah, but that's
22:20
Speaker 1: what watchers do. But so, so, how long is this runway?
22:22
Speaker 1: I think the runway is at least three months. I
22:24
Speaker 1: think the Fed is promising us that for at least
22:26
Speaker 1: three months, we're not going to do anything. I think
22:28
Speaker 1: that word patient actually does mean too, that they're going
22:30
Speaker 1: to expect to hike again. But they're gonna see how
22:33
Speaker 1: the world evolves over those coming three months to make
22:36
Speaker 1: a decision what their next move is. And I took
22:38
Speaker 1: those words very carefully. I want to see how the
22:40
Speaker 1: world evolves. I think Powell has been telling us data
22:42
Speaker 1: dependence is the most important piece. Financial conditions and how
22:45
Speaker 1: those evolves are just as important. Alright, So a three
22:48
Speaker 1: month runway is relatively short runway from my perspective, So
22:51
Speaker 1: do I take that three months to not get too
22:54
Speaker 1: far in my skis, but maybe to maybe improve the
22:57
Speaker 1: quality of my portfolio. Is that should be preparing for
23:00
Speaker 1: or what's beyond that runway? Yeah? I think that's the
23:02
Speaker 1: right question, and I think that the answer to that
23:04
Speaker 1: question is different for everyone. If you have been um
23:07
Speaker 1: insulating your portfolio for the last six state months, adding
23:11
Speaker 1: things that should perform well in a down economy, then
23:14
Speaker 1: I think you should take advantage of this risk one
23:16
Speaker 1: runway and add a little bit of of of beta
23:19
Speaker 1: or risk back to a portfolio. However, if you have
23:22
Speaker 1: not been insulating your portfolio, use some of this rally
23:25
Speaker 1: to do so. Is it too late to get the
23:27
Speaker 1: upside of this rally? No? I don't think so. I
23:30
Speaker 1: think you what you need to do is look for
23:31
Speaker 1: things that have lagged year to date, and those those
23:35
Speaker 1: are maybe trades that have liquidity dynamics that are not
23:39
Speaker 1: especially attractive, like what what are you talking about? Um,
23:42
Speaker 1: we can find such things in high yield, we can
23:44
Speaker 1: find things in the preferred space. Looking for things that
23:47
Speaker 1: year to date have lagged the broader ind to see rallies.
23:50
Speaker 1: That's what we're focusing right now because that's where we
23:52
Speaker 1: should see price appreciation in this short quote unquote runway
23:56
Speaker 1: for risk. Was there anything in the jobs report last
23:59
Speaker 1: Friday that calls you are more importantly, calls the Fed
24:01
Speaker 1: to maybe rethink their doublish view. I think they're They've
24:05
Speaker 1: been telling us they're gonna follow inflation as closely as possible. UM.
24:08
Speaker 1: In there, there's nothing that jumped out to me, and
24:10
Speaker 1: inflation is going to run away from them. I think
24:13
Speaker 1: we're still seeing the steady gradual increases in inflation. UM.
24:18
Speaker 1: Powell's focusing very much on what the inflation universe is
24:23
Speaker 1: going to tell him to do. I don't think that's
24:26
Speaker 1: that's a myopic view of what the world will look
24:28
Speaker 1: like for the Fed. The financial conditions component is going
24:31
Speaker 1: to be just as important to decide what is next
24:34
Speaker 1: rate hike, which I believe versus a rate cut. Basically,
24:37
Speaker 1: if the markets rallied too much and people get too
24:40
Speaker 1: excited about risk, the Fed hikes and puts an end
24:42
Speaker 1: to the party here in the end, absolutely, I think
24:45
Speaker 1: that's right, all right. So given that dynamic, how important
24:49
Speaker 1: is liquidity at this point? Liquidity is um I think
24:53
Speaker 1: in the investment universe is often only thought of as cash.
24:56
Speaker 1: Cash provides you liquidity, but there is in the investment spectrum.
25:01
Speaker 1: You can think of this as callously as on the
25:03
Speaker 1: run or off the run bonds, things that are actively
25:05
Speaker 1: traded or not. We're trying to find ways to actively
25:08
Speaker 1: add liquidity beyond just cash, because if we think the
25:11
Speaker 1: FED is closer to the end of the cycle and
25:13
Speaker 1: cuts are coming, cash is going to be a quote
25:16
Speaker 1: unquote underperformer. The return will go down. I want to
25:18
Speaker 1: add liquidity so people have flexibility in a in a
25:21
Speaker 1: down draft economy. So are you talking about e T
25:24
Speaker 1: f s derivatives or just bonds that are traded very
25:27
Speaker 1: frequently because of the e T rate? I mean we
25:29
Speaker 1: can we can take this this conversation for an hour
25:32
Speaker 1: and talk about market structure of what liquidity really is.
25:35
Speaker 1: You can do that in single name bonds, you can
25:37
Speaker 1: do that in in passive versus active investing strategies. Um,
25:41
Speaker 1: the places where I think you're going to find the
25:42
Speaker 1: most liquidity are in names that are actively traded by
25:46
Speaker 1: primary dealers, and the passive investing universe is going to
25:50
Speaker 1: see some mark to market moves that don't make a
25:53
Speaker 1: lot of economic sense to them because you're seeing force
25:55
Speaker 1: selling and force buying in those products. Just in this
25:58
Speaker 1: is a little bit off the FED speak. You talk
26:00
Speaker 1: about finding liquidity, that's a theme that LEAs and I've
26:02
Speaker 1: been hearing about from you know a lot of market
26:04
Speaker 1: participants saying it's hard to find liquidity in the marketplace.
26:08
Speaker 1: How how did your clients trade, How did they feel
26:11
Speaker 1: the trading market is and how do you where do
26:12
Speaker 1: you tell them to go to find that liquidity and
26:14
Speaker 1: yet still find some value that I think the reason
26:17
Speaker 1: it's coming up so much now is because December was
26:19
Speaker 1: a really challenging time for liquidity. The inability to offload
26:25
Speaker 1: risk in some instances and in some products, whether it
26:28
Speaker 1: be a floating rate product or in the preferred space,
26:32
Speaker 1: it took days to offload risk. That is not a
26:34
Speaker 1: normal dynamic that people have felt for the better part
26:37
Speaker 1: of ten years. So that's regulatory changes at practice. And
26:42
Speaker 1: when I look at what does the liquidity world look
26:44
Speaker 1: like today versus what it looked like ten years ago,
26:47
Speaker 1: I think it's about ten percent as liquid because of
26:50
Speaker 1: the the amount of supply that primary deals are holding,
26:53
Speaker 1: and it's only going to really feel that pain in
26:55
Speaker 1: times of stress. December was an event study for that
26:58
Speaker 1: that will be looking at for a long time. So
27:00
Speaker 1: just real quick here about thirty seconds. Clear Channels selling
27:03
Speaker 1: bonds today with triple C ratings to more than two
27:05
Speaker 1: billion dollars of bonds. Would you be a buyer? Um,
27:08
Speaker 1: we're not able to talk about listening those to our
27:11
Speaker 1: clients whatsoever. Uh, triple ceas don't offer to me from
27:15
Speaker 1: a strategic perspective much value at this level. Intering you
27:19
Speaker 1: bring up Clear Channel. I've very intimately involved with clear Channe.
27:21
Speaker 1: I was there during the founding of that company and
27:23
Speaker 1: the growth of that company and when it was had
27:25
Speaker 1: a very good capital structure. Unfortunately leveraged buy out in
27:28
Speaker 1: the peak of the market in two thousand and six
27:30
Speaker 1: and just put a capital structure on there and that
27:33
Speaker 1: it couldn't stand so bankruptcy. And here we are trying
27:35
Speaker 1: to bonds two billion dollars debt. So Tom Kennedy, thanks
27:40
Speaker 1: so much. Tom Kennedy is ahead of fixed income strategy
27:42
Speaker 1: at JP Morgan Private Banking. Having passed through all things FED.
27:46
Speaker 1: He spent ten years of the Fed, five years with
27:49
Speaker 1: the former Fed New York Fed chairman um Uh Bill dully.
27:53
Speaker 1: Thank you me who just had a great article out
27:55
Speaker 1: at least and I've been talking about. Thanks for listening
27:58
Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe
28:00
Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast
28:03
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at
28:06
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa Abram Woyds. I'm on Twitter at
28:08
Speaker 1: Lisa Abram woits one. Before the podcast, you can always
28:11
Speaker 1: catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio