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The Favorites - NFL Week 3 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: We are live from our Tommy John Home Studios. Great
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Days start with Great Under, where I'm joined as always
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: by my cost, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in. Are you ready
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: to unleash a fury of joy, optimism, good tidings, courage
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: onto our listeners and watchers in Week three?
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Hi'm Chad, and even a little life lesson for you
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: who cares about the outside noise.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: Buddy's just me and you, right.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: It's me. You know what you are? Mi campadre. Yeah,
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: you're my bff. This is about us. It's like we're
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: married and we need to we need to not listen
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: to what's happening outside of our house. Let's focus on
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: our best practices. Let's fucking go. You and I have
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: already spoken a couple of times since Sunday. I've spent
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: a lot of time thinking about our difficult weekend, and
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: I realized that, like, overall, my life is pretty great,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: and it must be great if like, the thing keeping
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: me up on Sunday night is how badly we did
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: with our five picks, and on Monday night it's, oh
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: my god, I can't believe I wasn't aggressive with the falcons.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: There is usually a grieving process for me after we
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: have a bad weekend. We do this kind of work publicly.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: We know that people are listening, watching, making decisions that
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: potentially separates them from their money based on what we say.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: When we don't do well, am miserable, miserable and like,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I cannot have a conversation with people in my house.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: And here we are, it's Tuesday morning. In a moment,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: we're going to recap the results of week two in
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: our contest. We're going to announce the winner of our
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: sign up for the free free Free Favorites Podcast one
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pickup contest presented by Bet
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: three sixty five one hundred thousand and cash prizes up
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: for grabs. Visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Reminder. The
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Favorites Pod is presented by BET three sixty five and
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: now new bet three six y five customers get two
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars in bonus bets. When you bet five dollars,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: sign up using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars in
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: place of bet for five dollars to get two hundred
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. Three six five must be twenty one
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: or older and president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: or one hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: All right, Another tough week in the contest, folks. Only
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: one percent of participants went five to oh. Congratulations to
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: our weekly winner Antonio A. J. T. Antonio went five
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: and OHO in the contest, missed the tiebreaker by just
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: two yards. As always, producer Matt Mitchell has selected his
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Producer's Cup Award to the entry that finished dead fucking
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: last in the contest.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: Have you heard about the Lordsome lose.
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: He's a Louisa, but he still kids on try.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer's Cup goes to bcorn oog when Own
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: five miss the tiebreaker by three hundred eighty three yards.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Bcorn email Matt at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: claim your prize. Let's talk about New England at the
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: New York Jets six and a half. This line opened
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: seven a half, has got hammered, got down to six.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Now it's back up to six and a half. Take
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: the under.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the Jets, but it's like what you're
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: just saying here, it's not confidence. I wouldn't make this
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: one of our five I've been. The Jets are in
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: the simple fact of I think they are better than
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: they have.
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: Played these last couple of weeks, right.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: I think their defense showed up a little bit against
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: the Titans there, and I even think the Titans, as
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: bad as they are offensive, I think they're probably better
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: than this New England Patriots team. So short week on
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: the road for this Patriots team, you expect the Jets
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: to win this game.
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: The question is is by touchdown? Chat? It feels alike
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: a lot.
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: That's the only reason I'm alright taking it just because
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: part of me is just like man, the books must
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: know something here making it this big, because I do
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: make this line five and a half, So right now
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: the value to me is on New England. But I'm
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: gonna trust the books here, trust the other professionals, and
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: they liked the Jets in the spot. And I'm trying
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: to get off this Patriots team after they did good
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: for me last week covering that three and a half.
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: I'm not trying to overadjust it this week. So maybe
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: I'm too high in this Patriots team. I'll go to
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: the Jets. But luckily we don't have to make this
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: one of our five no.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: And I'm glad we don't, but people are going to
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: want to hear some analysis. It's interesting to me that
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: you're going on the Jets. It's hard not to be
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: impressed with this Pats defense. Right. They stifled Joe Burrow,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: they made good plays, they were opportunistic, They took Seattle
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: to overtime, and they were down in that game and
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: getting dominated. They should have lost that game. It should
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: have been easy cover for Seattle, and they pushed the three.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: The problem is it's just not an explosive offense, just
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: thirty six points in these two games, only thirteen of
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: those in the second half. What this says to me,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: and maybe it says the same thing to you, Gerond
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Mayo and that coaching staff are doing a great job.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: They are coaching those players up, they are game planning
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: really well, and that's why they're staying in these games
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: in the first half. They don't have the talent to
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: make huge adjustments in the second half. Right now, Like
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: I would give the coaching edge in this game to
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: the Patriots over what I've seen from the Jets.
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: That's fair, and I know Evan's gonna have some amazing stats.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: I mean this, I can't remember in my lifetime if
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: I remember the Jets being a six and a half
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: point favorite over the Patriots. I mean it has to
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: go back to what like the early nineties. I mean,
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: I don't even know.
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: So I totally get the hesitation chat. I don't feel
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: good about it either.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: So the Jets perspective is they might have just played
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: two really good defenses, right Titans might actually are a
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: pretty good defense, and same with the forty nine ers.
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: And like you said, we do think the pitche have
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: get defense. We've seen the time time again. Right, These
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: short weeks tend to not be good for these defenses traveling,
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: especially in a game like they just had against Seattle,
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: which was hard pumping, hard hitting, and you just said right,
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: they played extra snaps.
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: That was an extra long game.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: So it's it's all bad for that new England team.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: And yeah, here we go, my man Evan. Jets have
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: only been favored once since two thousand and two against
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: the Patriots, and that was in twenty eleven. Mark Sanchez first,
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Tom Brady haven't closed that minus seven or higher since
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: September twelfth and nineteen ninety nine.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: So no way, he's basically twenty five years since the
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Jets were seven point favorites. Here's my other problem with
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: the Jets. They did beat the Titans, it felt like
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: a really hollow victory, right, I.
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: Mean they got a block punt with four guys rushing
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: Jet like that was inexcusable.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Tremaine Johnson is out for the year. Yeah, I don't
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: think Nathaniel Hackett knows how to use Aaron Rodgers because
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: right now his throws and his receptions are going to
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: his running backs. Half of the receptions last week from
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers went to Breeses Hall and Brilin Allen like
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: they don't.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: That's what the defense gave him.
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: I do agree with you, but like you've seen at
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: the NFL, the NFL is just weird right now.
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: It's different.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Like Aaron Rodgers is thrown for one hundred and fifty
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: yards and that's like an ra game from him. I
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: agree with you, though, it's there's some major questions. So
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: if you want to take the Patriots, that's fine, but
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: obviously you missed the seven and a half.
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: That's my biggest issue. Right the seventh and a half
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: was out there.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I'm probably going to take the under, like I think,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: if it gets back to seven primetime, it's six and
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: a half trending towards seven. If it gets back to seven,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: I'll take it.
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: Just absolutely a gutsy call about a really good call, all.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Right, Denver at Tampa Bay. Look, we faded Tampa Bay
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: last week. It was a mistake. We bet Denver last week.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: It might have been a mistake. I will say right
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: now that this is a luck rankings game, favoring Denver
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: in this spot, which is in a way team that
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: is the luck ranking side thirteen and four against the spread.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I got a lot of opinions on this game. We
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: have not talked about it. Fascinated to hear what you think.
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: Right now, I really have no read on it.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: It's like, I want to take this this Denver team,
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: But when I go back and watch y'all twenty two
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: on bone Nicks, it's like, and I know all these
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: rookies are struggling, right we haven't had a single passing
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: touchdown from one of these rookie.
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: Quarterbacks through two weeks, which is just insane.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: But bone Nicks is over four, Like he is zero
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: passing touch as a four interceptions.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: It's all, it's so bad, But it's I agree with you.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: It's probably me overacting because he's faced two pretty tough
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: defenses in Seattle then Pittsburgh. Yeah, this is obviously is
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: not that tough of a defense.
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: I should say.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: You know, they did do well against Detroit, but we
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: see that the standpup team does have major injuries in
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: the secondary. Like that's I think that was more on
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: golf than anyone else. So I get it, Like, you
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: can probably talk me into this plus seven because it
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: is one of these ugly dogs we do like, But
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: as we sit here on Tuesday, I haven't. I haven't
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: put a dollar into this game yet, so I agree
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: the seven is a nice number.
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: It probably will go down.
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: For professionals in it. But uh, bo Nicks, it's I mean,
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: we experienced it last week, Chad. You have zero faith
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: if the other team gets up double digits.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Zero, I mean, it's the I'm checking the number right
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: now because it's it was at seven at bet three,
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: six five, it's now down to six and a half
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: there and six and a half is painted across the board,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: so you either got to hope that it gets back
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: to seven or take a flyer on the six and
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: a half. I do think there's significant inflation in the bucks.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: You know, they start to and oh, they have a
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: really big win on the road against a team they
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: lost to in the playoffs, against a Super Bowl contender.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: But this secondary is battered and missing a lot of players,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: and now they're missing Vitavea, who's out for probably two
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: to three weeks if not more with a sprained MCL.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: So like, it's a tough one. The only issue is
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: there is no evidence Bo Nicks can get the ball
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: down field, and you're right, this game has to be close.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: You gotta believe. What I would say is that they
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: have been good in the last two minutes of the
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: first half of the end of the game, when when
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: they can be a little bit more spontaneous, things are
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit looser because they're usually trailing and the
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: game is out of reach. So is this backdoor cover potential?
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Like there's something about this game that feels tricky, plus
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the luck rankings factor, like this is one of the
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: biggest luck ranking games on the board. I'm putting on
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: the list to discuss. It's not assignment says, it's not
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: an exec decision. We will get to those today, but
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: it's on the board, Okay. Houston at Minnesota. Minnesota is
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: a two and a half point home underdog. Sunday night
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: when we did our show, the line was three and
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: a half. I got a lot of thoughts on this
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: game too.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: Son, Oh man, they're trying to make me a sucker.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: How do I not take Houston now that it's moved
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: on to the three. So this is this is why
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna need to talk to other other professionals because
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: I have this number. A three value right now is
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: showing on Houston. So I think you're getting a good number,
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: a two and a half. But it's like the books
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: are kind of telling you they think this Vikings team
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: is about to go three, you know, to start this year.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: Like this is a very telling line because they know
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: the general public it's gonna feel like me, it's like
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Houston's a better team. They're under a field goal here.
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: We want to take this. But me and you talked
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: about it all last season. We did not like backing
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: CG on the road as a favorite, and it was
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: good for us not to back them on.
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: The road as a favorite. So hesitation is warranted here.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: I might talk myself into taking this Vikings team by Thursday,
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: but right now as we sit here, it's like my
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: value is showing Houston. But I know that something's a
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: little fishy about this line.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: What's interesting about this game is we know Brian Flores,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: the defensive coordinator for the Vikings, he loves to bliss. Yeah,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: and like he used stunts. He used extra rushes to
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: get into brock Perty's grill for his two interceptions. It
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: was the opposite of what he did the week before
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: excuse me. Against Daniel Jones. They used a lot of
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: cover two, a lot of two high safeties. Like it
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: was really interesting how they changed it up and didn't
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: do their normal tendencies playing against the Giants. I don't
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: know what he'll do against CJ. Stroud. C J Stroud
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: this year seventeen of twenty, averaging eight point three yards
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: per attempt in the first two weeks of the year
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: against the Blitz, Like the Blitz was a one place
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: where he was less effective last year, not ineffective, just
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: less than others. And now he's even great at that,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: So like that makes it really challenging. I get why
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: you've got the Texans rated where they are. We've now
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: been burned by the Vikings right in a bad spot.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: I had a little biased because I had the Vikings
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: as being one of the worst teams in the NFL
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: this year. You had a little bias last week because
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: you're you love the Niners roster and we sort of
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: we missed that one. But you know, burn me once,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: shame on you, burn me twice, shame on us.
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: I gotta say I'm a little ashamed of you. I'd
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: just like to ask you something.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: How much is enough undefeated versus undefeated? It has happened
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: twenty two times the past twenty years. In Week three,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: dogs are thirteen and nine against the spread. Home teams
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: are fourteen and eight against the spread. Home teams overall
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: fifty seven percent against the spread when two undefeated teams
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: played the past twenty years.
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's brutal again.
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: If it was three and a half, this would have
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: been a no doubt or in the contest place, so professionals. Unfortunately,
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: we did our shows Sunday night. They hit that super
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: hard and got it down to words that now. So
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: the only hope is Chad the public comes in heavy
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: enough that maybe we get back to the three. But yeah,
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: I told you that, just be careful. This Houston number
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: very very fishy. This line be sitting at minus two
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: and a half.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Doesn't it feel like numbers this week at least moved
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: much faster than normal and there have been some really
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: aggressive line moves. Even fifteen minutes before we went on
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: the air, and we're going through the script and I'm
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: checking the spreads with Tito to make sure all the
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: graphics are right for the show. I had updated the
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: script at eleven am this morning. We recorded one thirty
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: two and a half hours later, I'd say half of
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: these numbers had changed, like and not insignificantly. That's a
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: lot of movement.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say, it's it's why I have what
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: you're feeling so much of on Sunday night, which is
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: shame of like we should be fat pocketed right now.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: This was this past Weekend's the exact weekend. Mean you
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: get really rich off of right, these big dogs winning
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: outright that we usually love. So that's what the pros
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: just had. So you just saw pros who you know,
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: most pros aren't going in and getting cash right when
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: they go in. They usually roll that money over if
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: they like a number on a certain line. And we
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: talked Sunday night, there was a bunch of lines that
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: jumped out right to me. So if that was me
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: going to the book on Sunday night, I had a
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: lot of tickets to roll over.
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: You had a lot of options.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: So that's why I think we've seen so much here
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: is that so much professional money are at these books
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: right now, and the books are going to react to
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: it because they did just get you know, beaten pretty
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: good by these pros. Luckily for them, it was like
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: their best weekend ever because the public got beat so bad.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: So you're you're right though, like this is not normal
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: to see certain games move six points within twenty four hours.
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's pretty wild here in week three.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: How much movement there's been.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: That's such an such an interesting fact slash habit about
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: professional betters, which I don't think a lot of people get.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: I lived this firsthand when I wrote The Odds, you know,
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: all those years ago, my best selling book about guys
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: who have been in sports for a living. But when
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: I was sitting with professional betters, and I very clearly
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: remember Alan Boston, who at the time was the best
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: college basketball handicapper handicapper in the world, had six figures
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: on a March Madness game and the team that he
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: had bet on verb with the last second three pointer.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: That meant nothing to anybody except people who were betting
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: on the game. He didn't celebrate, he didn't overreact, he
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: didn't think to himself, Okay, I'm going to profit. He
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: picked up the money, picked up the phone and put
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: the money back and play.
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: That was it.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: Just quickly flipped it around. Six figures, just flipped it
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: around like that. Los Angeles Chargers two and oh Pittsburgh
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Steelers two and o X rayson Justin Herbert were negative.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: Not entirely clear that he'll play on Sunday, but let's
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: say he plays because he did play in the game
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: with the injury.
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: Respectfully, There's certain things that go on among teams as
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: a leader that I talked to the collective about that
• 18:44
  Speaker 5: I have zero intentions of sharing with the larger public.
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: You know, I can't give you all the ingredients to
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: the hot dog. You might not like it.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: This to me feels like the ultimate bet on matchup,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: right when you know you have those two bet on
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: teams that you're frustrated because you like them both so much.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: We love Tomlin. He's got a mediocre quarterback, a defense
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: that is dominating against suspect offenses. Hardball is another better's favorite.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: He's got a better QB who may be injured.
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: I love guys who like football, and guys who like
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: football they like me back. I like them back. Even
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: guys that don't like football. I mean, they try to
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: avoid me.
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: Because I'm always trying to get them to like football more.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Chargers have the highest rated defense per Pro Football Focus
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: and a higher rated rush D than the Steelers just barely.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: This is going to be a game about how teams
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: do on the ground. JK. Dobbins one hundred and thirty
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: yards a game. You know, justin Field's throwing it ten
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: times a game. Totals I think at thirty five and
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: a half right now, Why do I lean Chargers here?
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: Because the number doesn't make sense, Like you just said,
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: Herbert might have a real injury, it might miss this game.
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: But the books are happy enough to hang it at
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: one and a half too. Really interesting position by the books.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: But I want to be on Pittsburgh, Like, if you're
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: gonna get me a bad ankle on Herbert against you know, TJ.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: Watt and Cam Hayward, we like, we like that matchup.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, let's really break this down here. What is
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: this Chargers team really done?
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: They beat a Raiders thing that think me and you
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: both agreed on. We feel like the Raiders lost that
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: game more so the Chargers won it. And they just
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: beat up on a Panthers team that just benched their
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: quarterback the next week. So it's like a lot of
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: unknowns there where I watched all that Denver game unfortunately,
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: Chat because me and you were heavily invested in that
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: and really needed a two and three week and justin
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: fields that's on big time throws. And I love what
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: Arthur Smith's doing, which is just like I'm not gonna
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: let you beat us, justin like I'm gonna put you
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: in a position where if you are taking shots, it's
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: to the boundary, to the outside where either our guy
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: can catch it or it's going out of balance. Like
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: I love everything they're doing in Pittsburgh a team we
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: totally misjudge, just because I did think it would be
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: Russell Wilson. I did think they were gonna struggle, like
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: there wasn't gonna be much they could do with them.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: But they've had some nice matchups here that their defense
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: taken advantage of, and this one here too, feels like
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: their defense if they want could take advantage of her right,
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: they want to make them one dimension.
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: So what would they do.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: They would just try to take away the run and
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: make I know it sounds crazy if people would make
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: Herbert beat you in a bad ankle, like that's what
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: I would do. I know that's what their DC is
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: going to try to do if he is the one
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: playing there.
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: So we'll watch this one as.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: The weeks along, and I'm not gonna make the Simon says, attempted,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: I am to make it that. I just want people
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: to know this is on my radar, where like I
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: wouldn't hate for this is one of me and Chad's
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: five where it's like I like the matchup for Pittsburgh's
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: defense and we like the number as well. Definitely need
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: some more info in Herbert and what his outlook is,
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: but uh, you know, I wouldn't hate us locking this
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: one because if he is out, couldn't you see this
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: jump up to three three and a half four?
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: So why wouldn't we take it right now?
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: I'm just hoping more professional money comes in the Charger
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: and because it wasn't too now it's down to one and.
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: A half of a couple of books, so it's like.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Clearly there's some pros taking a position on this Chargers side.
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: I'm just hoping I can keep getting a better number.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: I did bet it, like I just told you i'd
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: bet it.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: But it's I didn't know if you want to make
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: it your Simon says.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: I mean on Thursday, it definitely could be one of
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: our bets, A big balls or foxhole.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: We could fall in it. Well, listen as my podcast spouse,
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: you had me of Steelers.
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: They're good. It's a BAP moment right here for your
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: young stars.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Let's live Philadelphia at New Orleans. Oh, my ever loving God,
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: this is the line that we're talking about. This is
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the line that has been jumping like fish out of
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: a pond on a hot summer day when you're fly fishing.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I've never gone fly fishing. I don't
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: like being in a fucking lake.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: I also want to stay at the top so we
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: don't lose all of our outdoor listeners. I believe fly
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: fishing is mainly done in rivers, but I love that lake.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: You know what, but this line has moved six points,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: massive swing since the Eagles Monday night football loss. Kudos
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: to you, Simon Sunday night, we're doing the show. You
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: saw the Saints two and a half. You liked it
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: at two and a half. Now you might be able
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: to get a middle time to break out that old
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: chestnut by Marion Morris. The question is do we think
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: about the Eagles now?
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Usually me and Chad no brain or fire away or
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: right away on this Eagles team, after all this movement,
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: because this what I said on the show was I was, SKay,
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: what did the Eagles do deserve to be minus two
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: and a half favorites on the road against this team?
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: And we didn't even talk that's without aj Brown as well.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: You know, going back and watching this Saints team, I
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: believe they had the fourth most in NFL history of
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: points put up through two weeks. You gotta get shot
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: of them some respect, Like that was a disrespectful line.
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: The pro came in.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: They destroyed that number from these books enough that they've
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: moved it through three key numbers at this point. Chad, right,
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: I think Evan talked about uh, you know, I think
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: middle of Saturday, maybe even Sunday morning, it was minus
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: three and a half. Then I went to two and
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: a half, then I went to a pick, then they
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: went to minus one on the Saints.
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: Now they're up to minus three and a lot of
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: the books on the Saints team.
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: So pretty incredible. If this gets up to three and
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: a half and all the money, all the bets are
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: on this Saints team, mean, Chad are probably gonna end
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: up on this Eagles team on the other side, taking
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: that three and a half, but you have no rush
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: someone like me. I'm gonna hit the three now because
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: I do have the two and a half and a
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: three on the Saints. That's the dream middle spot. Even
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: if it's a little amout because I didn't get that
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: much money down, it's still a nice spot to be
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: on in this game where you really could could easily
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: see this land in between those two numbers. I mean,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: both these teams we expect them to put up a
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: lot of points on offense, and you know, the Saints team,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: we don't really know what to make of it, right.
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: I mean this Clint Kubiak kid comes in there and
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: he's running this Shanahan system and it's it's working. Like
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: you watch Kamar in this run scheme, play action passes
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: for Derek Carr.
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: It is all working. So that's why it's like I'm.
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: A little scared, but probably like Chad is where it's like, man,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: this this ain't the Saints of last year. They like,
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: even going back watching all the motion, the movement they have,
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: the blocking scheme, all of it just looks so well
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: prepared and such a such a good team, not just
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: defensively but offensively as well. So I get why the
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: books have moved this number so much, Chad.
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: But we're talking about at what point is that.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: Move too much? I think we've reached that point. Like
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: you're giving me a three three and a half on
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: the Eagles. If it gets there, that's too tempting for
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: me to pass on. So yeah, just let the money
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: keep coming in. See if you can get a better number.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: But if you want the Saints now, I mean bet
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: three sixty five. So it is a two and a
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: half on the Saints if you want to go grab it,
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: because I think we and Chat talked about I don't
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: know how much longer that's gonna last.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Teams that open as an underdog and closes a face favorite.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: The past five years, since twenty nineteen, it is about
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty games forty four percent against the sprint.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: So that is the Saints, by the way, It's also
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: the Titans. It's also the Seahawks, also the Ravens, and
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: I will tell you the Titans are an interesting game
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: that we're gonna get to. So were the Seahawks and Ravens,
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: but for different reasons. So I like the trend foreshadowing.
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: When we talk about Miami, talk about Dallas could be interesting.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: I mentioned at the top of the show, Simon that
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: we are coming to our listeners live from our Tommy
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: John home studios. And that is because the good people
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: at Tommy John are this show's newest sponsor. If you
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• 26:59
  Speaker 1: watching football, I was still comfortable because I was wearing
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: my Tommy John underwear. Only because of how comfortable and
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• 27:45
  Speaker 1: I mentioned the Titans. I mentioned the Titans. I said,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: we're going to talk about the Titans. The game was
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: at two. You asked me what I thought of the Titans.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: I was so down on Will Levis. I immediately pushed back.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: He was so bad. His coach had to explore his
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: reaction when he went after Levis coming off the field
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: after Levis made another bonuute play last week.
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I was upset it was done. It was the
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: same exact thing he did last week, and he cost
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: us points in the red zone. That he's a grown
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: up and he knows better, and so you know, I
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: was really irritated that he cost us three points in
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: a game that we probably needed it.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: The line has moved from Titans minus two to Titans
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: minus three. The money was going in the direction you
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: said it would. The wise guys basically took their tickets,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: putting back on the Titans. Good for them, were your
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: thoughts right now?
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that this an thought process is me.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: It's just like you've had horrible quarterback play and I
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: think we all can agree they probably should have covered
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: both games, maybe even win both games. You know, at
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: the end of the day, that just shows that there
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: is talent on this team. Like the coach. I can't
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: remember the last time we've had a coach too with
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: that coach Kelly and just did to him, right chat.
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: I mean he went in the presser and basically just said,
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: the kid's a fucking idiot, Like I told him not
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: to make the mistake last week after what he did
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: the previous week, and he did it again.
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: So yeah, is that tough? Love?
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: It is, But he's a growing ass man, Like you're
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: making millions of dollars in sleep, you're not in college
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: or high school. Like the kid gloves are off. We
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: just don't hear that, right, Usually that's be fine closed doors.
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: He's kind of going the new style just being opened
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: the media about it, where it's just like basically saying
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: this kid will be out of the league if he
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: continues doing this, which is the damn truth. So my
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: view one that I think you have the same kind
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: of view here is just the only people that were
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: going to be betting Tennessee here were the professionals and
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: the public.
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: No doubt was going to come in on the.
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: Screen Bay team because they were so heavy on the
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: Colts team watching that game, they're like, you know what,
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: they were right, the floor is a good coach. He
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: can't make this work. It does work when they can
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: run the ball. Whatever that was thirty forty times in
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: that game.
• 29:45
  Speaker 6: On a warm Wisconson afternoon, the Packers got their opponents
• 29:49
  Speaker 6: in the deep phrase as the Packers welcomed the new
• 29:53
  Speaker 6: season with a warm embrace.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: I don't think this Tennessee's defense is as bad as
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: that Colt's the defense. I think they do have the
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: front with a couple of guys that are able to
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: get those kind of stops. So that's really what I
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: was basing that off of. Like, this defense, even if
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: it's not Will Levis, if they're gonna take the ball
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: out of his hands and just run the ball, I
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: think this defense wills this team to get a win
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: because they are zero to two two against the spread.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, we have a historical data from Evan right, you
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: want to bet these teams in these spots. So that
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: was my whole mentality. Now it's up the minus three,
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: so it's like, shit, chat, are we we're gonna have
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: minus three and a half in the contest, because that's
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: gonna be tough to take them minus three and a
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: half in the contest, this Tennessee team. So that's a
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: conversation we have to have for Thursday. But as we
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: sit here right now, I don't know if I just
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: take the three. I don't know if I take it yet.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: But my hope is it goes back down to two
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: and a half, but I have three. If I have
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: to make a pick, yeah, I'll go Tennessee here. But
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: I hope you can wait and try to get the
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: two and a half again.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know that it's going back down. Maybe it
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: will maybe, yeah.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: Because I'm seeing some plus one plus one hundreds on
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: it right now, a couple of books.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Ye, all right, then let's wait. I will I
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent agree with everything you're saying. Like this
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Titans team, it's only allowed three offensive touchdowns. You know,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: it's top ten overall in expected points added EPA, which
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: is just a fancy metric of saying how they perform
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: compared to expectations on a play by play basis and
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: how many points should be expected when a play happens.
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: The rush offense, by the way, thanks to Bill Callahan,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: who we've been touting since before the season began, it's
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: top ten in yards per attempt. Yeah, and the one
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: thing the Packers have to do well in this game
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: is run the ball. They played a really bad Colts
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: defense and the Colts.
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: Colts made zero adjustment.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: They made zero adjustment even after DeForest Buckner left the game.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Will they be able to do the same thing against
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: a much better Titans front? It's it's just a question
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: of can we stomach betting on Will Levis? That's really it.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: At what point do they steal one or two games?
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: This feels like a game they should steal, right Yeah?
• 32:07
  Speaker 6: Now, New York Giants glory ears are a distant memory
• 32:09
  Speaker 6: for their long suffering followers who have endured through the
• 32:12
  Speaker 6: worst of Johns.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: New York Giants of Cleveland Week three dogs that are
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: zero and two against the spread, yep cover sixty one
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: percent of the time the past twenty years. The brown
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: just went on the road. Deshaun look like a decent quarterback.
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Do we sell high on Cleveland and buy low on
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: the Giants?
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know exactly what I want to do, Chad,
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: I mean the fans that I want to do, you
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: know what I want to do? Of course we want
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: to buy the Giants here.
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: But man, is this ugly?
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Like they're all ugly? You know what our problem is?
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: Right now?
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: Simon, talk to me.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: We are a We're a little anxious b we are.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: It's almost like we feel like these quarterbacks Bryce Young,
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: Will Levis, Daniel Jones, we are more afraid to bet
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: bad quarterbacks than we've ever been. And I don't know
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: why that is. I don't know why that's in our
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: head right now.
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: Because even the great quarterbacks in this league right now
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: are struggling.
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: Chat. That's my big hesitation.
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: It's like for me to bet a team now and
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: now it sounds crazy, but I need some semblance of
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: a run game. I feel like for a lot of
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: these teams that's kind of been carrying them where it's like,
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: if you can't pick up four three four yards on
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: first or second down with a run game, we've seen
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: these teams just can't move the ball right if it's
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: thirty and ten, a lot of these teams are dead.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: It's just been very different this year in the last
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: two years, I should say, but the way defense has
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: been playing it So yeah, right here though, my hesitation
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: chat is just everything that can could go wrong for
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: this Giants team keeps going wrong, and like that Washington game,
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: if they just had their kicker they win that game.
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: I think it was. I mean, Evan probably knows better
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: than me. But I saw some crazy that. But that
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: was like the second time in NFL history a team
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: school or three touchdowns and lost the game to a
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: team that didn't score a touchdown. I mean, did you
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: hear what I just said? They scored three touchdowns, they
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: lost to a team that didn't score a touchdown, a single touchdown.
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of this Giants team,
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: Like we talked, I think it was Sunday about you know,
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: that's a real thing with the contract with Daniel Jones,
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: right the injury insurance, they might eventually sit him because
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: they don't want to have to forth, you know, give
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: up twenty three million of guaranteed money next year if
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: they start zero for three.
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: That's a real conversation.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: So I love teams that have nothing to lose, and
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: they're going forward on this kind of matchup. So you
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: already knew it was gonna be like it. You're just
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: giving me those numbers. The fact that oh and two
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: teams you know, not even against the spread, just straight
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: up on the road as a big dog like this
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: team is. These are the kind of teams we want
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: to back here. So we'll take the six right now?
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: How does this not just keep going up?
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: Though? Right, I think people are starting to believe a
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: little bit.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: In Cleveland, Watson after we played pretty well against that
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: Jaguars team. Where I'm coming from an other way, I
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: think the Jaguars just had nothing in that game. I
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: don't even think Watson played that great. I think just
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: altogether that Jaguars team looked like they had nothing. I'll
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: take the deskper Giants team here. I feel like you're
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: gonna agree with me.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Right, yeah, I do. I'm a little nervous because I
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: think the Browns they've been missing there a couple of
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: offensive linemen at tackle. I think they might get those
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: guys back this week. And you talk about running game
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: and that changes the scope. But again, the Giants do
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: have the best interior linemen on defense in the NFL.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: So if there's one area where they should be able
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: to contend, it's at the line of scrimmage in the
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: running game. We're going to have to bet the Giants here.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: We'll get into the contest. Let's see what the number is,
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: but we are going to have to bet the Giants here,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: all right. One of the more interesting games you and
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: I talked about it again Sunday, Like I was not
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: in a good place Sunday when you were talking about
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: the games we talked about with Tennessee and New Orleans,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: Chicago at Indy. This numbers moved all over the board,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: right Like I think it was a two and a half,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: one and a half. Now it's at one. You liked
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: the Bears. I think it was at one and a
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: half on Sunday, then it went up. Now it's come down.
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: Hungry Bears are violent Bears.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: I'm having a hard time with this one. This Colt
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: defense is terrible, But I do think this defense doesn't
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: have the players right like DeForest Buckner, like I said,
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: is likely to miss the game. It cannot rush the passer.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: You know, they cannot stop the run the Bears. Meanwhile,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: their defense has been phenomenal in coverage and rushing the
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: passer like as a pass defense, both top five rated
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus. So this to me comes
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: down to, is it Shane Steichen figuring out with his
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: offensive brain, his big offensive brain, how to get Jonathan
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: Taylor in the right spots, how to roll Anthony Richardson out.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Because the one thing where the Bears are mediocre rush defense,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: there's not their strength, right, so I wanted that the Colts,
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: you know, like you were on the Bears. The line
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: has moved in the Bears direction, but this feels like
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: a Colt spot.
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: It does.
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: My whole view of it, though, is this should be
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: closer to a pick, Like I just think on a
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: neutral field, Chicago would be favorite.
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: Like we just talked about.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: There to me the more complete team right now. But yeah,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: like again that's stat you gave about the zero to
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: two teams. You know they did cover the week one
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: obviously everyone knows we took.
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: Them week one. But ye yeah, uh interesting game here.
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: It's just.
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: You know, I think offensively, like you just said, I
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: think they both can't see, so they're you can't choose.
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: They're out right.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: This This should be a good matchup for the Colts.
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: Their offensive line is obviously their best unit on the
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: whole team. They should be able to move the ball
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: against Dets Bears front like you talked about here. But
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: it's like the way the league is with all the penalties, Chad,
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: this this team feel like the Colts, where if they
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: get one type of penalty on any type of drive,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: it feels it's going to kill the drive right, And
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: that's like a my issue on my hesitation right now,
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: this Colts team and the flip side. I don't want
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: to put too much on Williams yet, like people are
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: just shitting on them two weeks in. It's like, can't
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: we all agree that Tennessee has a pretty good defense
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: and they just want up against a Houston team on
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: the road that's also a pretty good defense and his
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: line couldn't block anyone. Do we think his line is
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: gonna struggle as much against this Colts team?
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: I don't.
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: So I just have things I'm positive about this Bears team,
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: and I'm having a really tough time finding things to
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: be positive about this Colts team compared to the Bears.
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: For the Bears, they do have things.
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: I can build on, not so much to the Colts.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: So if you wanted to pass on it because the
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: number has become too sharp and it's too close, now,
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: I get it. Where if this was at two two
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: and a half, I think me and you would have
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: put Bears in the contest to maybe a nice number
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: and a good value pick. But like we just said,
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: it's going towards a pick right most books is down
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: to plus one, and I'm seeing kind of the juice
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: towards it going to a pick.
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, you're right.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: If it does flip, maybe we go with the Colts
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: just because of that amazing stat by Evan. But at
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: this point, I'm happy to set this one out.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: Our second big luck rankings game and a number that
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: has taken some heavy steam. Miami at Seattle at six
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: and a half, it's now down to five. It moved
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: to five. Literally as we went on the air, I
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: was starting to lean towards Miami before, like after it
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: had moved the full point, Like by the time I
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: was doing my work, it had already moved six and
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: a half to five and a half. But I do
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: think this is a big, big luck rankings game. I
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: think Seattle's a little bit overinflated. We've got the chance
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: to bet a backup quarterback, which we like to do.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: You know, We've got the Week three dogs that are
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: zero and two against the spread, covering sixty one percent
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: of the time time the past twenty years. That is
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins. They didn't cover against the Jags, they didn't
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: cover against the Bills. I don't know Seahawks, like they
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: pushed both of their games this season against inferior teams
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: the Broncos in Week one, the Pats in Week two,
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: and like they needed help doing it. So to me,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: it's as much about Miami as it is. It's not.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: It's as much about Seahawks inflation as it is about Miami.
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: That's fair, But my positive ass is just like Seattle's
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: really earned these two wins and that I'm kind of
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: impressed with it. Where it's like I thought for sure
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: they were gonna choke that new one game like Awake Chad,
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: I really did. I think I made us put it into
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: our money line around Robin and it was like, Okay,
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: I missed on that one. But my view of it
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: was just like that's such a letdown spot for this team,
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: where this doesn't feel so much of a letdown spot.
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: But I guess it kind of is now right with
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: all the questions Miami has at quarterback, so I think
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: he nailed it. Though this number to me, has moved
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: too much, right, I don't know if we're getting the
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: best of the number here where it's like I the value,
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: especially if it's now getting to four and a half
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: on Seattle, that feels like where the value is gonna
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: be right. I mean Skyler Thompson, that's who might be
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: the starter for this Miami team on the road against
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: a twelve man. I can see them having major issues offensively,
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: and you gotta wait and see the injury report. If
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: a Chan's all good, that's a huge deal from Miami.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: When we've seen it their first two weeks, he's been
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: by far their best most consistent player. That's a big
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: deal to that offense. So another game that we'll just
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: wait and see. I'll have a better opinion on Thursday.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: But I can tell you every pro I've talked to
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: you so far, they hit that Miami number. They love
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: Miami at that big number. So they might have a
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: different read on it than I do, where they think
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: maybe Miami's offense matches up well with this Seattle defense
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: and this they'll be able to keep up with them.
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: But my other view of it is just like Seattle,
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: they did find something against that New England team, right
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: like they kind of start figuring out like if you
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: just get the ball at the DK that really does
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: spread the defense out, whor it doesn't matter if it's
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: kind of talk or whoever. They have back to running
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: the ball. Once you spread a defense out, there's just
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: so many open lanes. So Miami it's it might be
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: a season from hell from them, Chad. I mean through
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: two weeks they got really lucky against Jaguars team. I
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: think me and you both can agree might not be
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: that good. So maybe my a Wow, Seattle know is
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: minus four and a half. Evan just said wow, So
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: that's what I mean. Professionals really love Miami in the spot,
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: so I might might have just steered clear of this one.
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: Like the Vikings last week. Just trust the pro money.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers are five and a half point underdogs on
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: the road at the Las Vegas Raiders. No one wants
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: us to bet the Panthers. No one wants to talk
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: about the Panthers. Simon is getting accosted in South Jersey
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: coffee shops about our Panthers bets in week one. This
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: is why I don't leave my house. It's another game
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: that we discussed on Sunday night at the time. You
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: like the Raiders at minus seven, but that's for the
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: Andy Dalton news. Now we have Andy Dalton, like the
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: trends back the Panthers here.
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: All of it does Chad there's a million reasons to
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: bet the Panthers here and me and.
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: You talked a little bit about it earlier.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: Pro Football Focus has the Panthers great out as the
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: fifth best pass blocking offensive line right now in football.
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: They had the same number as we do. Right.
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: They have a lot of analytic people hired on this
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: Carolina staff. That to me is why they made the
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: Bryce Young move, where they're just like, everything this guy
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: does has been a negative, right Everything he's doing for
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: our team is a negative right now. So to me,
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: this is the right move. It's not one that I
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: would have made though, right if this was my team. Again,
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: this is just from my perspective. I knew the minute
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: he came out there last year this guy probably was
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: not a start in this league. And we talked about it,
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: but I viewed it of he could be like a Minshew, Right,
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: you can build an offense around if you put the
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: right pieces and have him the best anario he's not
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: even that. I mean, just watching these first two games
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: like he's he just looks so totally lost. So the
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: fact that this line moved a point and a half
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: or two points at some books, well, they took out
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: Bryce Shong will put in Andy Dalton. Who you know,
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: Andy Dalton we thought was washed three four years ago,
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: and I just think that's incredibly telling to Bryce Young
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: and you know, the Panthers. It's a tough pill to swallow.
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: But I do think this is the right move unless
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: their goal is to get the number one pick. If
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: it is, why would you not play Bryce Young the
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: rest of the year. But me and you our hesitation here.
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you still have it.
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: My hesitation is the Panthers defense. That's my wary here.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Chat is okay, maybe this does have some major fixes
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: on this offense. Defensively, what do they have, Like, what
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: is the player on their defense that can kind of
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: get stops when they need to stop on third down?
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: Who is the cornerback they can rely on. I know
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: we all thought it was gonna be Joe, but I mean,
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: in this system, it doesn't really matter. It's just I
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: can't get there with this Panthers team.
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: Still.
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: I think the Lions moved too much that it was
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: Andy Dolton and they still gave us the seven. I
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: would have been about it, But now that it's down
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: to five, five and a half, it's like you know what,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: I only moved the I only moved a half a point.
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: I told you Sunday night I had this number at six.
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: I only moved a half the point for Andy Dolton.
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: So I've moved it to five and a half. So
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: it's like, okay, the value to me, if it's five,
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: it's on the Raiders. If it's five and a half,
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: it's there is no value. So just not a game
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: I'm really excited about. But you know, I get why
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: the pros came in really quick and did hit the
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: seven because to me, that's a good number of Andy Dolton.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: But at this number, chat, I don't know.
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: I'm just not feeling confident in taking it.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm glad you're taught. You're having us walk away
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: from it. We're being disciplined about the five and a
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: half and not seeing the value there. To your point,
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: they traded away Brian Burns. He's on the Giants now.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: He was their best pass rusher. They still had some
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: hope for an interior pass rush with Derek Brown. Derek
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: Brown out for the season now because of an injury,
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: so this is a real challenge for this team. Their
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: pass rush and their pressure is atrocious. Just eight point
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: five percent pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks. That's the worst
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: in the league. And the secondary really doesn't have anything.
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: They just have been We've seen it takes in a
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: row though, right Chad, with Minshew, if he has a
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: clean pocket, you can move the ball like he has
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: tremendous trust right now in Bowers and Devonte Adams. And
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: we saw that last game against the Ravens where it
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: took them a while to get into a rhythm. But
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: once they diget that rhythm that second half, that's a
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: really high functioning offense when it's all going smoothly. So yeah,
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: it's it's a scary, scary spot. So I want to
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: be on the Panthers. But yeah, like Chad said, I agree,
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: I think the numbers move too much.
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: Ravens now one point favorites at Dallas.
• 47:03
  Speaker 6: The Cowboys of Pro Football's glamourgine, Dynamic, progressive, and spectacular.
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: Points spread has flipped from Dallas being the favorite to
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: Baltimore being the favorite. That's the beatdown the Raiders. The
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: Ravens lose to the Raiders at home, and then they
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: still get moved to a favorite because that's how bad
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys loss was to the Saints. Micah Parsons said,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: it felt like he was in a maze playing against
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: that offense. That's how much motion they were using, That's
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: how good the Saints were. He just he was lost.
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: He literally said he was lost. I think this Ravens
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: defense has some problems because then now they've gotten thumped
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: two weeks in a row, five twenty plus yard receptions
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: last week, ten so far this year the entire season.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: Last year they only gave up forty six, so they
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: were allowing two and a half two times more per
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: game on average this year. You just have to ask yourself,
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: are all the changes on defense, whether it's Mike McDaniels,
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Patrick Queen, other changes in the secondary, is that starting
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: to impact the Ravens in a way that is causing
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: some serious regression. This is a weird spot for the Ravens.
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I told you someday. I was like, hows it think?
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: Because I wanted to take Dallas. I just felt like
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: that was going to be a nice bilo spot for
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: Dallas and the numbers a little telling where the general
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: public and a lot of professionals think the values on
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: the Ravens and I think it's still probably on Dallas, and.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: I think so too.
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I know this is brutal.
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: This is a brutal one because we don't feel good
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: about it, right, we want to take Lamar in this position.
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: But I would say when.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: I talk to professionals, their question about Dallas coming to
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: this year was they might have the worst running.
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: Back room in all football.
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: Right, and again, not that big of a deal through
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: two weeks. I mean, I don't think a running back
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: would have saved them in Week one or last week.
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: But man like, there's some major questions here about that
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: Dallas team, not just defensively offensively, but some questions about
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: their running backs. So this is a game I think, Well,
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: when we spend more time on Thursday, I definitely want
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: to break this down more. But as you said here
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: right now, I bet Dallas.
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: I like Dallas. It's probably gonna be a team I'll
• 49:20
  Speaker 3: be on in this matchup.
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was this close to making it my exec
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: decision just now, the.
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: Same exec decision. Simon says, I hope not. Well.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: San Francisco La seven and a half. It got up
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: to eight and a half, it got down to seven.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: Now it's back to seven. And a half at bet three, six, five,
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: everywhere else it's a seven. So look, this Rams team
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: is decimated by injuries. The defense just got trashed. The
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: offense couldn't move the ball. Nine ers historically beating them
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: at home. They need a bounce back. But Deebo's not
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: playing Like I know, the Rams are the side in
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: terms of the trends, but it feels like we don't
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: know enough about this game and these teams right now.
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: No, And that's the worst part is like you just
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: had the trends wank. We want to take the Rams.
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: Everything on field makes you want to fade them so hard.
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: They have they have nothing in the Rams. They have
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: no offensive line now, they have no weapons on the outside,
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: no game change, I should say, right, because that Matthew
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: Stafford can turn anybody into a weapon on the outside,
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: but just no one that's going to consistently win their
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: one on one matchups, which he needs. He needs that
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: safety blanket on third down. That's what made so special
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: with Cooper Cup when he was out, Kuku Nakua filled
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: that role of being his guys go to on third down.
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: So it's all so bad for this Rams team. Chad,
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: where I think they're begging us, begging us to take
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: the plus seven and a half.
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: That's why they have it up there.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: I'll wait a couple of books keep showing seven to
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. I'll take the seven. But it's
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: another game where like if it's seven and a half,
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, you're really gonna put in Chad
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: like that's we just got burned so bad by trying
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: to do that last week. So that's gonna be a
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: tough one to swallow. Where there's a couple of dogs
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: I like a little more. But yeah, as far as
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: big favorites go, this might be the only one I
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: like this week, and that's the forty nine ers.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: We have so many games that we're carrying over into
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: Thursday because we're still waiting to see how the markets.
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: Move in injury reports. I mean I was gonna say
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: about doing Tuesdays.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're waiting for the injury reports. I mean, I'm
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: glad we'll get some sharp calls over the next forty
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: eight hours or be able to narrow down. I've barely
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: made any bets so far, you know, just because I
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: missed some pretty big numbers and I want to be
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: thoughtful and Detroit at Arizona. I feel like you have
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion on this game. I have no feel
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: for this one.
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: I like Arizona. I like the way they're playing. On
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: the opposite side, Detroit, they've now looked in sync and
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: rhythm in two weeks. Even against that Rams team, which
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: we just talked about as all those injuries all banged up,
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: they took them to ot. I mean that that was
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: right there for the Rams and win that game. So
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: I major questions about Detroit. Where Arizona. I mean, you
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: look back on it, that was probably the best loss
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: of the season, right that game against the Bills. Like
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: they were in that game, they followed up with it
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: just a dominant performance against the Rams. I think it
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: was the highest QBR game for a quarterback. And I
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: don't know two or three years what we saw Kyler
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: Murray do. And I love Marvi Harris's quote after the game.
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: They were like, oh, you had this amazing game four
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: for one thirty and he said, well, I just saw
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: the stat bocks and Kyler had foreign completions. Those foreign
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: completions were to me, so I need to get better.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: And it's like that's what I want to hear from
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: a first year player that just had a career game
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: right over one hundred thirty yards of two touchdowns. Most
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: young rookies are just drinking that in where he's kind
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: of just trying to get better.
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: So I love all of the Arizona like I love
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: them coming to the year.
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'm getting drinking the cool ay too much because
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: they're the other side of it, right, Chad. They are
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: two and zero against the spread. Usually I don't buy
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: heavy because they've kind of over at at that point.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: The markets kind of adjusted too much to them and
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: they're a little overvalued.
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: It's only moved half.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: A point, right, it was three and a half, it's
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: down to three. The books are getting nice two way
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: action on this one. So I think the general public
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: still thinks this is the better team in Detroit, which
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: I think we all agree, right Chad. They have a
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: better offense and defense. Yeah, yeah, there is a reason
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: two back Detroit here. I get why people are taking
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: the minus three minus three and a half on this
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: Detroit team.
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: I just viewed it as Arizona is.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: Always gonna have us in this game, Shad, Like we've
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: seen it from this secondary of Detroit. They haven't fixed
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: all their issues despite spending money going out getting guys
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: and through the draft, there are still ways you can
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: attack this Detroit secondary. So I agree with everyone Detroit
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: is a better team if this was week eleven, week twelve.
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: Once Detroit figures it all out and they get a rhythm,
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: I probably would back them here. At this point in
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: the season, Arizona to me, looks more in sync, confident
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: what they're gonna do on offense than the Detroit So
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: I'll take the plus three with Arizona here.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: If the Lions can't get right against this defense and
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: this second Andy, then we've got much bigger problems than
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: how are we betting in the lines as favorites every week.
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: That's my hesitation. Feels like it would be an aggressive
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: contest play, very aggressive contest play. Although it's possible we're
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: still gonna make aggressive contest plays because we got a
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: couple of games still left to talk about. Sunday Night
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: Football Kansas City at Atlanta. Atlanta is three and a
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: half point underdog. Would would Better's love a last second miracle.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: This line was four and a half Monday afternoon. It's
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: three and a half now. Isaiah Pacheco was out. Have
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: the Falcons found themselves? I feel like I know which
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: way you're leaning. I'm kind of hoping it goes a
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: little bit lower, so I can bet Patrick Mahomes.
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: Well, I'm gonna make this, Simon says, just in case
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: of Oh my god, says plus.
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: Three and a half for Atlanta. Give it to me.
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: When Simon, we do, say.
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: I love the number. I'm with you, right. That was
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: a miracle comeback win. But I look at this Chiefs team.
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: They kind of had the same thing. They stole one
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: against that Cincinnati team, and through two weeks you see
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: that there are some struggles to this Kansas City offense,
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: not just from Patrick Mahomes, which you know right now
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: he's playing like a bottom fifteen quarterback. If you go
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: look at all the numbers, he is not playing well.
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: And you know me and you talked earlier.
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: Right now, Simon, he's not even the best quarterback in
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: his division. Gardner Minshew is the only quarterback throwing for
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: more than two hundred and fifty yards. I'm telling you
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: for two weeks.
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: But yeah, the fact that they benched their left tackle
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: and put in the backup and he struggled as well.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: Is pretty terrifying because we talked about that front for
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: the Bengals. They lost some guys, right, I mean DJ
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: Reader left that team and they still yeah, get him
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: push and you know the Bengals defense, and I know
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: Doctor Nicks talked about a lot the Bengals might have
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: a bottom ten defense, like that's a very young defense
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: in Cincinnati, and they really did dominate that Chiefs team
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: in that game. I mean you take away you know
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: the calls by the refs and that's seven that gave
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: up on the Bengals fumble by Joe Burrow.
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: It's like they get rolled.
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: So this Atlanta team, you know what they might struggle
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: with on offense is really strong outside pass rushers.
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: We saw in that Eagles game. You know Kirk he
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: can still move in the pocket. Well.
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: He the only guy in the Eagles that gave them
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: any type of fits was Jalen Carter. The rest of
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: the Egles defensive line is this terrible non existent. So
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: he kind of knew that if he's pushing up the
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: left side, I'll just step right around it. And then
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: the same thing happened when would go up the left side.
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: He's like I'll just step right around and just there
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: was a rhythm to what Kirk was doing where we
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: didn't really see that in week went against Pittsburgh. Obviously
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: got a little bit more confident in pushing off that
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: back leg. So yeah, from my view of this Atlanta team,
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: Chad's right like, if you want to do bet the Chiefs,
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: it might get there for you might be able to
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: get to two and a half, maybe we'll go down
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: to three. I'm just gonna grab it right now for
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: Atlanta because I do think the profession's gonna keep coming
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: on this side. So looking the action app right now,
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: seventy percent of the bet sentie percent of the money
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: is on the chief So yeah, obviously it's been pretty
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: heavy professional money moving.
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: This down for four and a half.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: I don't want to take that hook with Atlanta. I
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: don't want to be like over influenced by what I
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: saw last night, at least until I fell asleep.
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: I don't think it moved off last night. I think
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: it moved off. But checkoll injury, honestly, you do. He's
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: such a big piece of that offense. Now, you know,
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Travis Kelcey.
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: Is non existent this season.
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: He's just in the different phase of his Speers right
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: means you're depending on Rice and Worthy, two very young receivers.
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: This is the time of year you want to play
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs right now, they don't know who the hell
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: their left tackle is, and other than Rice, they don't
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: know who their their second option is. It's it's there's
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: a there's some questions right now with this Chiefs team
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: that I think we can take advantage of.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: Chef Okay, Monday Night Football, Jacksonville at Buffalo.
• 58:08
  Speaker 6: A generation of kids had seen Lake Cary freeze over
• 58:11
  Speaker 6: that they had never seen their Buffalo Bills defeat the
• 58:15
  Speaker 6: Miami Dophins.
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: Buffalo is a five and a half point favorite. Jags
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: are zero to two according to ESPNS, FBI and the
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Bill Barnwell Column, twenty three percent chance to make the playoffs.
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: You and I Simon have struggled with Trevor. Lawrence did
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: not go the direction we thought it would go in
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: year three. He's not got this huge contractor, and you
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: and I have been struggling to identify statistically what we
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: see on the field, which is he's not great in
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: the red zone, he doesn't have great touch, he's not
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: very accurate. The chemistry between him and Doug Peterson still
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: isn't fantastic the way we want it to be. Barnlow
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: pointed this out in his column in the Quick Passing Game,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: which is throws under two and a half seconds, which
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: Doug Peterson loves. Trevor Lawrence's completion percentage is last in
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: the league on these throws. His four point four yards
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: per attempt is thirtieth. You know, he's ahead of Bryce
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: Young and Will Levis Jeez in the red zone. Twenty
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: eighth in expected points last year, twenty ninth so far
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: this year. This brings statistical evidence to everything we've been
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: saying about Trevor Lawrence and yet and yet Simon, Yeah,
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: I got a bet the Jackson, and I'm making it
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: my exact decision.
• 59:43
  Speaker 6: Oh god, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.
• 59:48
  Speaker 6: Are you have your honor's text to cute number executive decision?
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is we're supposed to play this number and
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: play this spot, So I have it three and a half.
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: We're getting two points of value on this Jaguars team.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's awful, though.
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: This is gonna be an awful experience going against you know,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen who's playing as if he's the MVP of
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: the league right now, which I mean.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: He's looked that way through two weeks. He's played the best.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: This is tough, Chet, I can't believe you make it exact,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: but this is the kind of bets we need to make, right.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: These are gross bets, the gross bets.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: We got to get back to who we are of
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: trying to like lean into the shorter numbers with the
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: teams that like have the quarterbacks. I believe in against
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: the teams with the quarterbacks, I don't. The truth is,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: I still need to believe Trevor Lawrence is good. I
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: think he is has a good chance to get better
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: against the Bills when it is a really when it
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: is a decent sized number, this is a big luck
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: rankings game. If you look at both the Browns game
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: and the Dolphins game, especially the Dolphins game, the Jats
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: could be one in one, right, and we're having a
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: different conversation, So there's there's a chance he's gonna put
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: himself in a better spot.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and you're also just playing the numbers here. We
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: know we're getting value here. We can't let the Josh
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: Allen effects scare us off and this is gonna be brutal.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be brutal, and we come in on Tuesday
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: if we don't hit this one. But I do agree
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: with Chad, like this is a good number. This is
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: as low as it can get. It feels like for
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: this Jaguars team being oh and to this season, they
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: go zero to three. Obviously the season is over, So
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: I'm with you. I like the desperate team here against
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: the Bills on long rest, coming off a huge win
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: against a divisional opponent. You know, it's just the classic
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: letdown spot for this Bill's team historically.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: And their defense is still not very good. Kyler lit
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: him up. They won that game big against the Dolphins,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: but also because Tua didn't play the whole game, and like,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: there's some issues here on this defense that you know,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: cross our fingers. Now, the Jazz can take advantage. The
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: second game on Monday night, Washington and Cincinnati. Cincinnati is
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: an eight point favorite. I actually have no and you
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: know this game at all right now. I mean, it's
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: a big number, so we'd probably want to lean Washington,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I don't have a strong theory on it.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: Same thing if I was still alive in the Survivor contest,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: and I hadn't used the Bengals, I probably would use
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: them here. It's a nice spot for a team that's
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: owing two to finally get their first win at home
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: against a Washington team that, yeah, they're fun, they're exciting,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: but you know they just won a game without scoring
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: a touchdown, like they're just all around they're bad, right.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: I think we've seen that with Jay and Daniels is
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: a kid that is not going to last the whole season,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: even on a bunch of those runs against the Giants,
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: mistakes on this unnecessary hit. So if you with whatever
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: side you're on here, I don't really have an opinion
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: either on with Chad, I lean towards the Bengals, but
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: I haven't bet this one at all.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: Simon. We have about seven, eight, nine, ten games that
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: we want to probably review on Thursday and narrow down
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: to our final five. The good news is the list
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: of quarterbacks of this game in this in this list
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: and the number of ugly dogs that we have, We're
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: getting back to the basics. None of this bullshit. Jared Goff,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: Dak Prescott, brock Purty shot. We got Bonnicks, we got
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: Will Levis. We got Daniel Jones, we got a hobbled
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. We got Trevor Lawrence, who hasn't won a
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: game in like three hundred days, like Skyler Town.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 3: Come on, our one favorite might be Will Levis.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: Like now we're getting back to it. We're getting back
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: to who we are. Five and now around the corner here, buddy,
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: that's how I feel, all right. The Favorites is presented
• 1:03:44
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