Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 449 - 2/6/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
- 0:14welcome to. Episode 440. 9.
- 0:18Of the all systems. Go sports betting podcast
- 0:21powered by. Rhythm, I am your.
- 0:23Host Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
- 0:31Happy Friday our. Work week has come to an end.
- 0:34But more importantly guys, we are now.
- 0:36Just two days away from the Super Bowl, Patriots, Seahawks.
- 0:41We've been talking about. This game.
- 0:42For two weeks. Now at this point and although I
- 0:45wanted. To wait as long as I could to
- 0:47see this late money come in. Because you do.
- 0:48See a lot of. Action you talk.
- 0:50To a lot of. Odds makers, they'll tell you
- 0:52last 2440. 8 hours a. Lot of big money comes in, I
- 0:55said you know what, final? Pod of the week, last pod before
- 0:59the Super Bowl. So I said let's get our official
- 1:01best bet pack, best bet pick out there.
- 1:04So again, you probably. Know which direction I'm.
- 1:06Going here if you've been tuning into the ASG.
- 1:08Podcast which? I know you always.
- 1:10Do or you know, listen to as many as you can.
- 1:13But I did. Mention this play last.
- 1:15Night. In the rhythm rundown.
- 1:17So thank. You to everyone who?
- 1:18Tuned in. It's been a been a great season.
- 1:20It was our final. Rhythm rundown.
- 1:22For the NFL season. Myself, my buddy Kate Harper and
- 1:26we talked about. One book giving us an odds.
- 1:28Boost, so I said. It might be time to jump on this
- 1:31before it moves. Because I'm thinking this might
- 1:33be the best number, so I'll give you the official.
- 1:35You probably know what. It is, but I'll.
- 1:37Give you the official best bet pick.
- 1:39That I'll be sweating on. Super Bowl Sunday as we get
- 1:41ready to go to my. Mother in law's house, she's
- 1:44already. Talking about, oh what?
- 1:45Do you want to eat? She's making.
- 1:46Chili we're. Going to have a.
- 1:47Nacho Bar. She likes to drink White Claws,
- 1:50so she'll have a few of those for me, but I can't wait to
- 1:52sweat this game and. I got to play.
- 1:54On it, so I'll give you my official best bet.
- 1:56For the Super Bowl, also got a couple college basketball.
- 1:59Plays. I know it's kind of a smaller.
- 2:00Than usual Slate today. There's only about 9 games.
- 2:03Overall. But we have an.
- 2:04Epic, epic, epic. Contrarian play.
- 2:07And Lions, actually. Coming back toward the.
- 2:09Contrarian side. Hope you guys.
- 2:11Jumped on this. When I wrote.
- 2:12About it for visen.com earlier today or if.
- 2:14You follow the best bets in the juicer lap because you're
- 2:17getting a good number. If.
- 2:17You jumped on it earlier. And then we got another bet.
- 2:20As a dog to fave line move. So 2 bets in college.
- 2:23Basketball official best bet for the Super Bowl.
- 2:26We'll see if we can get a two out of three, although I'll cut
- 2:28off my right arm if we can get the Super Bowl pick right.
- 2:32And then of. Course Saturdays.
- 2:33Sundays. No podcast.
- 2:35Sunday of a full. Sharp report for.
- 2:37Visa dot. Com for the Super.
- 2:38Bowl but. Tomorrow we know how.
- 2:39Huge. Saturday, you know, slates are.
- 2:42For college basketball. So if if you want some coverage
- 2:45for tomorrow, you can. Always check out the.
- 2:47Articles I rate for. Visen.
- 2:48Dot com you can. Follow me on Twitter.
- 2:50At Josh under Score Insights. But you can also get the.
- 2:53Saturday best bet picks. From the Juice Reel app as well.
- 2:56Now looking back to last night, guys, there was good.
- 2:58And bad, you know, we'll go with the bad 1 and 2 -, 1.23 units.
- 3:03In college basketball. Had a nice hit.
- 3:05With Cal State Northridge. They had a big lead and.
- 3:07They coughed it up and they. Scored at the very.
- 3:09End to give. Us a one point win.
- 3:11Why is that important? Because we money line short
- 3:14favorites Cal State Northridge. If you're.
- 3:16Remembering in that spot. You know they were.
- 3:18Laying around. 22 and a. Half.
- 3:20There was some late. Movement in their favor.
- 3:23But they ended up winning by one they.
- 3:24Should have won by. Far more than that, but money
- 3:26lining. A short favorite came through.
- 3:28There was a rhythm recommendation there, so that's.
- 3:30Why we money line short favorites you money line Cal
- 3:32State. Northridge, you win.
- 3:33You laid the two 2 1/2 you. Lost, but that's why we.
- 3:36ML short faves. Stony Brook was annoying.
- 3:39I definitely was on the. Wrong side of that one if you
- 3:41noticed. There was a.
- 3:42Ton of late movement toward Monmouth.
- 3:44At one point Stony Brook was -3 1/2.
- 3:47They closed all the way up -1 1/2 -, 1.
- 3:49So I'm like, oh. This ain't good so late.
- 3:51Money was on Monmouth, ended up losing by 1.
- 3:54Although they hit a three there to make it a one point game,
- 3:57they coughed it up late. And then complete no show.
- 4:00By U A/B. U A/B at.
- 4:02Home against Memphis, although I must say.
- 4:04If you watch that. Game sincere Parker.
- 4:08Is this? Shooting guard.
- 4:09For for Memphis, he wears long sleeves.
- 4:12And he? Could not be.
- 4:13Stopped the guy, scored 40. Points and I feel.
- 4:15Like he just never. Missed a shot.
- 4:17All night. So he had an incredible game and
- 4:19unfortunately beat us with the UAB so. 1 and 2 - 1. .23 units
- 4:23in college hoops. But I told you there was the
- 4:25good and the bad. That's the bad.
- 4:27The good was Mike. Rabel Coach of the year.
- 4:31Let's go. I always loved betting some.
- 4:34Futures bets awards markets. Because you can use it as a.
- 4:37Bankroll builder so if you have a night where you go one.
- 4:39And two. -1.2. 3 units but. You're hit.
- 4:41You hit your variable. Coach of the Year.
- 4:43At +200. Which was a podcast play that we
- 4:46talked about. Months ago, that turns.
- 4:49Into a winning night. So as always guys, we're.
- 4:51Looking at trying to build our bank rolls with.
- 4:54Some some futures bets so again they can save you and and losing
- 4:57nights and turn you into. Winning nights.
- 4:59So shout out to. Raybould Coach of the Year and
- 5:02there's a huge, you know, just huge.
- 5:05Argument Battle. Going on with Twitter.
- 5:06Sam Monson or Monson? He voted for Justin Herbert.
- 5:10Which I thought was. Ridiculous.
- 5:11And his whole point. Was oh, he?
- 5:12Had a terrible. Offensive line it's.
- 5:14Like, OK, well, Drake, May and you know, Stafford were
- 5:16definitely better. Stafford won MVP, but obviously
- 5:20that was. A you know, Nip.
- 5:22And Tuck Drake May was right there if he votes.
- 5:24For you know, may. They split the award but either
- 5:28way we got variable. Coach of the Year +200.
- 5:31So it. Was nice to see a futures bet
- 5:32come through for the team. So that being said.
- 5:35On the final part. Of the week, College hoops,
- 5:37Super Bowl. Let's.
- 5:39Just do it. Let's.
- 5:39Get right to it my. Official best bet pick for the
- 5:43Super. Bowl now.
- 5:44If you've been listening all week, you probably know what I'm
- 5:46going to tell you. But it's now official.
- 5:48Because I just. Went to go.
- 5:49Bet it at bet. MGM.
- 5:51Which is important because. They got an odds boost here and.
- 5:54I'll be. I'll be take committed.
- 5:56So now it's out of my hands. I hope the closing line value
- 5:59comes back to New England. My whole.
- 6:01Goal here was to get. 4. And a half and hopefully
- 6:03between. Now and Sunday start.
- 6:05To see the juice. Go to New England Plus 4 1/2 -,
- 6:08115 start to see this line fall down to four.
- 6:11That is my. Goal.
- 6:12But you've heard me say. Before the.
- 6:14First thing that jumped. Out to me with this Patriots.
- 6:16Game is the fact. That New England.
- 6:19Is a contrarian play. And again when you.
- 6:21Are a contrarian better? Which I am, and again I used to
- 6:25bet with the public before I understood.
- 6:28Obviously, the philosophy. Of betting it's the.
- 6:30Public and why you want to do it and the whole reason.
- 6:32Is, you know, public. 'S going to win.
- 6:33Games here and there. They might get hot.
- 6:35Win a big game, get hot for a week or more.
- 6:38But over the long haul? Betting with the crowd is a
- 6:41losing strategy because the. Crowd the herd mentality.
- 6:44They're betting based on gut instinct bias.
- 6:46They're not really looking at lines or.
- 6:48Splits or system matches. Or anything like that.
- 6:50So the public. Is saying.
- 6:51Seattle is the better team. Now I mentioned this.
- 6:54Yesterday because. I think I mentioned it on when I
- 6:58jumped on with Patrick Maher last night.
- 7:00But from a. Just a ticket.
- 7:02Standpoint we have a. Really lopsided opportunity.
- 7:05Here where the. Public is all over.
- 7:07Seattle getting nearly. 2/3 of spread bets.
- 7:10Patriots. Only getting a third.
- 7:11Of spread bets. So just you know.
- 7:13Stop the stop the count. Just end it right there.
- 7:15Most heavily bet. Game of the Year.
- 7:17You're also reading reports. That this is going.
- 7:19To be the most. Heavily bet sporting event.
- 7:20Ever. Because we got. 40 legal states.
- 7:23Overall, we have prediction markets out there.
- 7:26So the landscape obviously is leading more people to bet.
- 7:28And there was a really cool article from David Purdum and.
- 7:31Gets like one point. 67. Billion dollars is going to be
- 7:33bet on this game. So if it's.
- 7:35Extremely heavily bet. It's a one.
- 7:37Off and the. Public is all over Seattle.
- 7:40I want to be on New England. Just as a contrarian.
- 7:42Better I read this. As I mentioned a second ago to
- 7:44my buddy Patrick Maher last night, but.
- 7:46Get a load of. This at the NFL.
- 7:48Network. They have 30.
- 7:49Four quote UN quote. Personalities or Experts 30.
- 7:52Of the 30. Four pick Seattle.
- 7:55At ESPN, 47 of. 57 pick. Seattle at The Athletic.
- 8:00Eight of eight pick Seattle. So you know when.
- 8:02We always talk about. You know, a Thursday.
- 8:04Night game. Or a Monday night.
- 8:05Game or Sunday night? Game the pregame show the last
- 8:09thing they do before the game starts.
- 8:10Is they? Ask everyone who their.
- 8:11Pick is and. They'll be a.
- 8:13Little Chiron, that's. Showing you the percentage.
- 8:16Of America. So it'll be like. 80% of America
- 8:18on this side. Or that side.
- 8:19And then I'll show each quote UN quote.
- 8:21Expert with the logo. Of the team they pick anytime
- 8:24I'm in a, you know. A1 off game like that or a.
- 8:27Prime time game. I want all.
- 8:30The crowd. All the analysts to pick team A
- 8:32because that makes me more confident to go team B.
- 8:35So just from the standpoint of. All these experts vast majority
- 8:38of tickets. Going with Seattle.
- 8:39I automatically want to go against the grain and go with.
- 8:42New England. There's also a tweet.
- 8:43From my buddy John Ewing. From Bet MGM saying.
- 8:46Patriots outright. Would be the.
- 8:48Best outcome? For the sports book.
- 8:49So I want to be on the side of the sports.
- 8:51Book is rooting. For which would be New England.
- 8:53So epic contrarian play, kind of kind of a line.
- 8:56Freeze as well. I mean, we were pretty much
- 8:58sitting minus. 4 1/2. Seattle.
- 8:59We've been there for over a week.
- 9:01At this point. And you know, there are a few
- 9:03books. -4 1/2 -. 115 for. Seattle, but a lot.
- 9:06Of them. Have evened out.
- 9:08If you also look at Circa which caters to wise guy betters.
- 9:12Only 30% of bets, but 45% of dollars on the spread are on the
- 9:16Patriots. So again, you're getting that
- 9:18low bets, higher dollar count from the pros at.
- 9:20Circa. You're in a big contrarian play
- 9:22across the country at DK and all the other.
- 9:24Sports books. We can fade.
- 9:26Obviously, all of America. Who says Seattle?
- 9:28'S the way better team New England had an easy.
- 9:31Schedule. So that's something.
- 9:32That we can go. Against and then.
- 9:34Also we got our system matches. Playoff dogs who?
- 9:36Missed the playoffs the previous year.
- 9:38Four and one against the spread this.
- 9:39Postseason. They're 30 and 13 against the
- 9:41spread 70 percent, 35% ROI since 2020.
- 9:46Super Bowl dogs. Since 2004, they're 15 and seven
- 9:49against the spread, 68 percent, 32%.
- 9:52ROI Super Bowl dogs. Getting three or more.
- 9:55Since 2004, even. Better 11 and 4 ATS, 73% with.
- 10:00A 42%. ROI.
- 10:01Super Bowl dogs are. Five and O ATS.
- 10:04In the last five Super Bowls and this.
- 10:06Reminds me a bit. Because the number.
- 10:08Is the exact same. Of when the Bengals.
- 10:10Played the Rams a few years ago. Remember, Bengals were plus 4
- 10:131/2. That was the year.
- 10:14Joe Burrow was incredible. And got sacked a ton but.
- 10:17Just kept kept winning. I think was the championship
- 10:20game, was it against? Tennessee, where he got.
- 10:21Sacked 9 times and they won that.
- 10:22Game but. Long story short, Rams won that
- 10:25game, but they won by three and the Bengals covered the plus 4
- 10:291/2. I had the Bengals.
- 10:30In that one so. Kind of gives.
- 10:32Me deja vu. Of that similar situation.
- 10:35We also look at Rhythm Rhythm who does a great job powering
- 10:38this. Pod giving us these.
- 10:39AI models and predictions. I have 3 predictions that are
- 10:43recommending the Patriots Plus. Four and a half one is Pats
- 10:47plus. 0. .71 is. Pats -0 Point. 91 is Pats plus.
- 10:530.4. So rhythm basically has a.
- 10:55One point game either way. We can go. 4 1/2.
- 10:58That's a pretty decent edge. Also give you this I think the.
- 11:02Patriots are being undervalued. Overlooked.
- 11:05You listen to all the national. Media and it's patriots.
- 11:08Are the little engine. That could, but Seattle?
- 11:09'S got the better roster. You know if you.
- 11:11Pick 15 players in this game. The top. 15 you know. 10 or
- 11:14more. From Seattle, but.
- 11:16I'd like to be in that spot. Where you're getting overlooked,
- 11:19it's a soft schedule. Are are, you know are, are.
- 11:21Seattle in the spot. Are they under estimating new?
- 11:23England, I think there's. Something to be said.
- 11:25There you also look. At the experience.
- 11:27Factor Rabel has played. And I think. 4 Super Bowls.
- 11:31Won three of them. And the loss?
- 11:33Was the. Game that shall.
- 11:34Not be mentioned the. David Tyree game if you're a
- 11:36Patriots fan like me. And also Josh McDaniels, I
- 11:39believe. He's now coaching in his 10th.
- 11:41Super Bowl. So head coach, offensive
- 11:43coordinator, a lot of. Experience in the big.
- 11:45Game Milton Williams is also second straight.
- 11:48Year in the Super Bowl. Not a lot of experience outside
- 11:51of Cooper Cup. I think he's about it when.
- 11:53It comes to experience on the Seattle.
- 11:55Side so you Add all up here guys as a Patriots fan.
- 11:58I'm going to be. Rooting for the Pats?
- 12:00To win this game. I'll be ecstatic if they win the
- 12:02game outright. Wouldn't that be awesome?
- 12:04But as a better. I'm taking.
- 12:06The +4. And 1/2.
- 12:07So lastly. Where do we bet?
- 12:09The game and. I'll give you.
- 12:11Where I am in. Massachusetts.
- 12:12I have 7. Sports.
- 12:13Books that I have an account at. Caesar's has Pats plus. 4 1/2.
- 12:17-1 O 8. FanDuel Plus 4 1/2 -, 1 O 8.
- 12:21The score plus. 4 1/2 - 1 O 6 Bally and Fanatics Plus. 4 1/2.
- 12:27-110 DK. Plus 4 1/2. -1 O 5 but I landed
- 12:31on bet, MGMI hinted. At this.
- 12:33Earlier in the week, but pay. Attention to odds boost.
- 12:35Bonuses, remember? They want your business.
- 12:38Right now. The the sports.
- 12:39Books are. Fighting each other.
- 12:40Because. Because they want.
- 12:42You to go. Bet with them.
- 12:43So a bet MGM. There was a boost.
- 12:45Available to me. I logged.
- 12:46In and right in front of me, it said.
- 12:49Patriots, Seattle. We can boost it.
- 12:52From Patriots Plus 4 1/2 at. -1 O 5.
- 12:55To Patriots Plus 4 1/2. At +1. 100 even money so.
- 13:00One unit Patriots. Plus 4 1/2 + 100.
- 13:03Dear God, fingers crossed. Hope they cover, I'd love.
- 13:06For them to win. But we get one full unit back.
- 13:08If the Pats are. Able to come through.
- 13:10So contrarian play, sharp split at circa system.
- 13:14Matches Rhythm Edge. Got an odds?
- 13:17Boost to take. Advantage of I put.
- 13:19It in the app. I'm take committed.
- 13:21I got patriots plus. 4 1/2 + 100 with the boost up at MGM and
- 13:24now. We play the waiting game.
- 13:26Between now and Sunday. I'll be staring at the number.
- 13:29And hoping. That we see this.
- 13:30Thing try to get down to. 4 Because that'll tell me that.
- 13:33We're on the right. Side here, so there.
- 13:34You have it officially. In pocket no more.
- 13:37Waiting I figured plus 4 1/2. Even money it's.
- 13:40Probably the best. We're going to.
- 13:41Find here. So I'll be sweating my you know
- 13:43what off on the Patriots again. Win the game, but.
- 13:47At least lose by. 4 less let's go, Pats.
- 13:50Now. Over to some college hoops to
- 13:52finish off the week I. Got 2 plays for you?
- 13:54Including an. Epic, epic contrarian play.
- 13:57So first one on the board I want to hit on.
- 13:58This is the smaller. Of the two games.
- 14:00Murray State and southern Illinois. 8:00 Tip off here,
- 14:04Let's talk. Split system matches I'll.
- 14:06Give you my play. Here now, Murray State comes in
- 14:0817 and 7. But they did.
- 14:10Just snap a. Four-game losing skid.
- 14:12With an 81 to 74 win over Illinois.
- 14:14Chicago, they covered that. Game as a 6 1/2.
- 14:17Point home favorite. Meanwhile, Southern Illinois 10
- 14:19and 13 on the year. But they have 1-2 and.
- 14:22Two of their last. Three just held off Illinois
- 14:24State 54 to 40, winning outright.
- 14:28As an 8. And a half point Rd. dog.
- 14:30So we seen across the market here.
- 14:31Will this game open with Southern Illinois listed as a 1
- 14:341/2 point home favorite and sharps have very.
- 14:38Clearly pounced on Murray. State.
- 14:40Because we've seen a. Dog to fave.
- 14:41Line move. Woo woo.
- 14:43In favor of the. Racers.
- 14:45Murray State, I believe. John Marant went there.
- 14:46If I remember correctly, but anyway, Southern Illinois -1 1/2
- 14:50we've now. Flipped to Murray State. -1 1/2
- 14:53on the road. So we have.
- 14:54That dog to. Fave line move Murray State is.
- 14:57Taking in 80. Percent of spread bets, but 97%
- 15:01of spread. Dollars at Circa.
- 15:02So out in Vegas. Caters to wise guys Circa
- 15:05Sports. You got a heavy, heavy bet split
- 15:08in favor of Murray State, hopefully covering this number.
- 15:11Now you know me. Money lining Short favorite.
- 15:14Just look no further. Than.
- 15:15Cal State Northridge Last. Night didn't cover the. 2 1/2
- 15:18but won the game. So I don't.
- 15:19Want to lay a 1 1/2? And win by 1.
- 15:21And lose my bet. So I money line Murray State.
- 15:24I got them at -121. At Valley Bet.
- 15:27Most shops around -125 now at this point, but I.
- 15:30Also like the splits. On Murray State at DraftKings,
- 15:3376% of money line bets 80%. Of money line dollars.
- 15:37Loading up on Murray State. System match on Murray State.
- 15:40If you're a short. Favorite -4 or less?
- 15:43And you have at. Least 1/2.
- 15:44Point of line movement in your favor.
- 15:46Those teams are 198 and. 130 straight up this year, 60% win
- 15:50rate, 2.5% ROI. Murray State has been better in
- 15:53conference play. 9 and four straight up.
- 15:55Southern Illinois just. 4:00 and 8:00 in.
- 15:58Conference play. Racers, hopefully their offense.
- 16:01Is just too much for Southern. Illinois Knock on wood.
- 16:03Because they are averaging 86. Points per game only 74.
- 16:07Points per game for the Saluki's here.
- 16:10Murray State. Also better offensive
- 16:11efficiency, 61st in the country versus 200 and 49th.
- 16:15For Southern Illinois. Better effective.
- 16:17Field goal percentage 51st versus 240. 5th Better offensive
- 16:21rebound. Percentage 75th versus 200 and
- 16:2314th. Better three-point.
- 16:24Shooting 116th versus 300 and 55th and better free throw.
- 16:28Shooting 42nd versus. 340. 3rd Lastly.
- 16:32There is an 8% sharp mush edge on Murray State.
- 16:35Money line. And a 29% sharp mush edge.
- 16:38On the Murray State. Spread.
- 16:40So again, dog to. Fave.
- 16:42Flip. Toward Murray State?
- 16:44Good. Splits system matches better in
- 16:46conference. Play far better.
- 16:48Offense here first better the night for.
- 16:50Me Murray State money line. I got him at -121 now.
- 16:55The big boy the. Biggest match up of the night,
- 16:58Connecticut and St. John's. 8:00 tip here we got.
- 17:01UConn coming in 20. 2:00 and 1:00.
- 17:04Ranked third in the. Country they've won. 18 straight
- 17:07games. They just crushed Xavier. 92 to
- 17:0960 easily. Covered as a. 17 point home
- 17:12favorite. Meanwhile, the Johnnies 17 and.
- 17:145 on the year, ranked 20. Second, they've won.
- 17:17Eight in a row. And just handled the Paul 68 to
- 17:1950. 6. Covered as a 9 1/2 point Rd.
- 17:22favorite so. What are we sitting across the
- 17:24market here? Will this game open with UConn
- 17:26listed as a one and a? Half Point Rd. favorite.
- 17:29And the public cannot. Believe.
- 17:31This line is so. Short, they say.
- 17:32Connecticut. Far better team, better.
- 17:34Ranking. Better one loss record. 1.
- 17:37And a half is way too low. So the public is.
- 17:40All over UConn. UConn is getting. 77% of.
- 17:44Spread bets at DraftKings. So everybody and their mother is
- 17:46going with. UConn now.
- 17:48Early in the day we did see the sign tick up toward.
- 17:50UConn -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2. However, when it got to. 2 1/2 I
- 17:55kept noticing that all the. 2 1/2 reduced.
- 17:58Towards St. John's Plus. 2 1/2. -115 -, 120.
- 18:02And when I looked over at Ken Palm.
- 18:04He had St. John's losing by one point.
- 18:07So if St. John's.
- 18:08In the most heavily back game of the night was incredibly
- 18:11contrarian. Only getting about. 1/3 of
- 18:13tickets or 1/4 of tickets? And Ken?
- 18:16Palm at A1. Point game automatically said I
- 18:18want to go Johnny's. So I jumped.
- 18:20On Saint John's at +2 and 1/2. Hope you guys did as well if you
- 18:23read the Sharp report. Or you got the ASG best bet
- 18:26picks from Juice Rail. Because now I'm seeing the
- 18:29Johnny boys down to plus 1 1/2. So I am loving the fact that I
- 18:33got 2 1/2 and this line is down to 1 1/2.
- 18:36Unfortunately for you listening. Out there if you didn't jump on
- 18:38it. 1 1/2 is pretty much your best.
- 18:40Price, although I do see Caesar's offering +2 so at least
- 18:44try to get. The two if you can, but just
- 18:46from the standpoint of everybody and their mother on.
- 18:48Yukon yet this line kind of coming back.
- 18:50Right to where it. Started.
- 18:52We are now basically looking at a reverse line move. 2 1/2.
- 18:55Down to 1. And 1/2 or overall a line freeze
- 18:59open Yukon -1. And a half now still Yukon -1
- 19:02and a. Half even though.
- 19:03Everyone is playing the. Huskies.
- 19:04So I love that element of smart money buy back towards St.
- 19:07John's. You know if this line got up to
- 19:093 or 4? Yukon. -3 - 4.
- 19:11It would just be a straight. Up.
- 19:12Inflated. Dog contrarian play, but.
- 19:14The fact that lines coming back. Toward the Johnny Boys.
- 19:17Again tells me smart money. Is taking the.
- 19:19Points with Rick Pitino and the crew.
- 19:20Tonight now aside. From being the number one
- 19:23contrarian play of the night. Only getting 20. 3% of spread.
- 19:25Bets and a heavily bet game on Fox.
- 19:28We got a good. Split at circa only 13% of
- 19:31spread. Bets but.
- 19:32Nearly half the money. As I mentioned, Ken Palm has
- 19:35Connecticut winning by one point.
- 19:37Which? Provides a good edge on the plus
- 19:382 1/2 if you got it. Earlier, even the two.
- 19:41Or 1 1/2 losing by 1 Johnny. Boys.
- 19:44You know, as great as UConn is, you look at their stats,
- 19:46they're. Really good, must admit.
- 19:47But they do have a big. Advantage here Offensive
- 19:50rebounds 11th in the country versus 49th for.
- 19:53UConn and better. Free throw percentage. 156th.
- 19:57Versus 200 and. 41st for UConn. And they don't.
- 19:59Turn it over as much. They ranked 74th in turnover
- 20:03percentage committed versus 145th.
- 20:06For UConn. So again, I I.
- 20:09Can't. Say I I don't understand why the
- 20:11public. Likes.
- 20:12Connecticut, I mean, it's. Pretty clear, really good.
- 20:13Team only laying one. And a half now.
- 20:16But it seems fishy. We've got a.
- 20:18Number one contrarian. Play here.
- 20:20And we also. Have if you pop open juice reel
- 20:23A. 23% sharp mush edge. From the Wise.
- 20:26Guys who? Have synced up their Juice Reel
- 20:28app. Going with St.
- 20:29John's. By the way, rhythm has the
- 20:31Johnny. Boys plus 0.7.
- 20:33So we can still find that. +2 at Caesar's.
- 20:35That's your best play. And I.
- 20:37Hope at least. A few of you.
- 20:39Jumped on the 2. And 1/2 when it was available.
- 20:41So I'll be. Sweating St.
- 20:42John's Plus. 2 1/2. I got that in pocket.
- 20:45At least try to get the +2 now. At this point, but let's go
- 20:49Johnny boys also my wife very. Proud graduate of.
- 20:52St. John's University, so I'm going
- 20:55to make her watch this game tonight with me.
- 20:57So there we go. We talked about Super Bowl pick.
- 21:00Let's go, Pat. 'S plus. 4 1/2.
- 21:02Saint. John's plus the points.
- 21:04Murray State. On the money line, see if we.
- 21:07Can get a few. Of these, and obviously the big
- 21:08one is the Patriots. On Sunday.
- 21:11But that about does it for episode. 449 of the all.
- 21:14Systems go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
- 21:17This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
- 21:19always start. First by saying.
- 21:21Thank you. Thank you for listening.
- 21:22Thank you for tuning. In Thank you for grinding in the
- 21:25arena with me every single night.
- 21:27Through the UPS and the downs. The winning nights.
- 21:28The losing nights. The Nights.
- 21:30We grind out. Plus zero point.
- 21:32One or -0? .1 units.
- 21:34But it means a lot. Especially with football.
- 21:36You know, coming to an end. Here.
- 21:38But don't worry, I got baseball. Win totals lined up next week.
- 21:42I also have because. Spring training is.
- 21:43Coming up. And we also got.
- 21:44March Madness not. Far around the corner, so don't
- 21:47get. Don't get sad.
- 21:48I am too. I admit I'm going to miss.
- 21:50Football terribly, but we got other things we'll we'll
- 21:53gravitate toward that's. The life of a sports better you
- 21:55just got to. Operate around the calendar.
- 21:58But if you do enjoy this pod, please could you give it a five
- 22:00star review on Spotify or iTunes rate?
- 22:03And review leave a. Comment Click the.
- 22:04Follow button. Recommend the pod to a friend.
- 22:06Retweet the. Pod when?
- 22:08I put it out. Everyday at Josh under Score
- 22:10Insights. I would very much appreciate all
- 22:12of that. Next, if you enjoy the.
- 22:14Style of sports betting data. Driven sharp contrarian betting.
- 22:17Focusing on line movement bets, split system matches, looking at
- 22:21betting through the numbers and not your bias.
- 22:24And your favoritism? But if this style of betting.
- 22:26Has appealed to you. You've seen the value.
- 22:28Of paying attention to the numbers and now you've kind of
- 22:31been. Provided a blueprint.
- 22:32How to attack all? Sports, not just NFL, if you'd
- 22:35like. To learn more.
- 22:36About data-driven betting, if you'd like to let me know you.
- 22:38Appreciate the pod. If you have.
- 22:39Someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips.
- 22:42Then I would. Love for you.
- 22:43To go to Amazon.com. And type in.
- 22:46The Everything guide to sports betting.
- 22:48Or the NFL sharp betting playbook and pick up.
- 22:50One or. Both of my books.
- 22:52I think there's a lot of great info in there that could be used
- 22:54to your advantage. And if you grab.
- 22:56One and bring them the. Sports Book.
- 22:58I'll sign them for you. I'll.
- 22:59Buy a beer. Or ginger ale and we'll.
- 23:01Sweat like hell. Pat's Plus. 4 1/2.
- 23:04Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice?
- 23:06Real yet? My 2.
- 23:07Favorite sports betting apps to. Help me win they're.
- 23:09Going to. Help you win SO.
- 23:11Rhythm Fantastic app here. With their AI backed.
- 23:14Models and predictions for game bets.
- 23:16And player props. And again, we talked.
- 23:18Last night about a. Bunch of player props.
- 23:21I'll just let you know some high highly rated.
- 23:22Ones Keyshawn booty over 29 and half receiving yards rhythms
- 23:26predicting. 46.5. Jackson Smith and Jigba under.
- 23:3093 and half. That's a big contrarian play.
- 23:33He'll be covered by. Christian Gonzalez Rhythm is.
- 23:35Predicting 67 point. 4. And Romandre Stevenson under 14
- 23:39F rush attempts Rhythm is predicting 8.8.
- 23:42So if. You want to bet some player
- 23:43props? Definitely check out rhythm and
- 23:46see their their highest. Graded plays, but also.
- 23:48Juice. Reel Juice.
- 23:49Reel is another fantastic sports betting.
- 23:52App and it's really. Got so many different.
- 23:54Features. First off, I'm.
- 23:55Going to pass the hat. If you'd like to sport the pod.
- 23:58You can support the pod by signing.
- 23:59Up to get the. ASG best bets officially.
- 24:01From Juice Reel. So if you had.
- 24:03Jumped on the juice. Reel app and and paid for those.
- 24:07Plays which are just $4. And $0.99 a week it's.
- 24:09Only 5 bucks but once you do that you'll get.
- 24:13The plays as. Soon as I make.
- 24:14Them. So you.
- 24:15Would have gotten that. Johnny Boys Plus. 2 1/2.
- 24:17Hopefully it doesn't matter. Hopefully they lose by one or
- 24:20less or win the game, but you can again.
- 24:22Support the pod. By getting the ASG picks from
- 24:24Juice rail, you're also going to.
- 24:26Get the sharp mush. Indicators The arbitrage plays
- 24:28the shop for the best line. Futures.
- 24:30All available when you. Download Juice Rail.
- 24:32So download Rhythm download. Juice rail, give them a.
- 24:34Five star review. In the App Store, next do.
- 24:37You have a live odds page. If you don't have one, you need
- 24:40one. You got to be able to.
- 24:41Track the market. You know, cut.
- 24:43Through the the noise. And find the signal.
- 24:46And. Jump on the best.
- 24:47Numbers when they're available. To you.
- 24:48And the best? Live odds page around especially
- 24:51as as I'm going to be staring at it.
- 24:52Between now and Sunday to see the.
- 24:54Hopefully the late movement here break our way with.
- 24:56The Pats Plus. 4 1/2 The best one around is.
- 24:59Odds logic. Odds logic is just the best.
- 25:02Because it gives. You all the different books.
- 25:04Including books like Pinnacle. Circa bet online.
- 25:07You know. Bookmaker.
- 25:09The big ones. That set their numbers first and
- 25:11don't just. Copycat.
- 25:12When you see them. Start to move then.
- 25:14You know you have a small window to jump on a copycat book before
- 25:17the line. Gets out, gets out away from
- 25:19you. But I would highly.
- 25:21Recommend giving odds logic a shot and odds logic.
- 25:24If you use this special link, you're going to get A7.
- 25:26Day free. Trial and 50.
- 25:27Percent off your first month. Oddslogic.com slash.
- 25:32Josh, 123. So that about dozen guys for
- 25:35episode 4. 49 final part. Of the week before the Super
- 25:38Bowl. I'm getting all the feels guys.
- 25:40Cannot wait for Sunday. But lastly, I'll leave you with
- 25:43two final thoughts. One.
- 25:44Whether I see you? At the Borgata.
- 25:46In Atlantic City, twin River in Rhode Island, the.
- 25:48Brook in New Hampshire. Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun.
- 25:50Down in Connecticut, the encore in.
- 25:52Boston plain rich park casino MGM Springfield the Nash.
- 25:55My neck of the woods on the border of.
- 25:57Massachusetts in New Hampshire. Around the desert, where the
- 25:59true grinders get down. Where Billy Walters sends.
- 26:02His number runners with. The lowest juice possible is
- 26:04found. At the South Point or sweat.
- 26:05And sharp contrarian plays. Jumping in the stadium swim pool
- 26:08when you catch a big ticket. At Circa, you're going to walk.
- 26:11Up to me. Show me a Cal State Northridge
- 26:14money line ticket. That's why you money line short
- 26:16favorites. But more importantly, guys?
- 26:18Show me a. Mike Vrabel.
- 26:19Coach of the Year. +2. 100 I love it.
- 26:23When you bet a futures bet, you get a good number and you get
- 26:26rewarded, you know, weeks or months later.
- 26:28So first one's on me, next one's on you.
- 26:30We'll. Post about the book.
- 26:31And sweat some sharp. Contrarian plays all weekend
- 26:34long. Sad about dozen guys coming.
- 26:36Off a one and two or A2 in one. A winning night, a losing night,
- 26:39a hot. Streak a cold streak.
- 26:41The ups and downs. Just like in life, they're.
- 26:43Going to be ups and downs in sports.
- 26:44Betting, but we always. Stick with it.
- 26:46We stick to the model. Stick to the.
- 26:48Blueprint and we. Play the long game.
- 26:50Always remember sports. Betting it's a marathon.
- 26:52Not a Sprint. So we're.
- 26:53Going to stay disciplined with our bankroll management flat
- 26:56bet. Risk one unit if we can, do that
- 26:58if we can. Find our system matches games
- 27:00that are against the public. With the house with the pros
- 27:03flat bet avoid. Parlays and get that.
- 27:05CLV if we can do that. We're going to be successful.
- 27:07Sports bettors. So a reminder, no pod Saturday
- 27:11and Sunday you can read the sharp reports visa dot.
- 27:13Com follow me on. Twitter at Josh under score.
- 27:15Insights and. Check out the best bets on the
- 27:18juicer lap, but hope everyone has a great Friday.
- 27:21Have an even better. Weekend have a fantastic.
- 27:24Super Bowl whether you're. Going out with.
- 27:26Friends or someone's house. Family or having people over
- 27:30enjoy the game. And damn.
- 27:32Fingers crossed, let's go. Drake May +4.
- 27:34And 1/2. Let's go, Patriots.
- 27:37Baby, have a great weekend everybody.
- 27:38And I'll see you. Back on Monday.
- 27:40For episode 5 four. 50 of the all systems go sports betting
- 27:44podcast. Powered by rhythm.
- 27:46Good luck everybody. And go Pats.