Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / State of the Race: The Rise of Kamala | 7/26/24

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State of the Race: The Rise of Kamala | 7/26/24 · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:01
  Stu does America.
• 0:03
  The state of the race.
• 0:06
  Welcome to the State of the Race podcast.
• 0:08
  Uh,
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  it's a little bit of a different vibe for you today.
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  Normally we post here and we appreciate that you follow
• 0:15
  the show for all the election updates.
• 0:17
  Uh,
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  I've been on vacation though and so much has happened.
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  And Glenn asked me to kind of give you a
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  state of the race update on the radio show today,
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  and I wanna make sure you didn't miss it.
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  So this is sort of a special episode.
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  This actually happened on the radio show today,
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  but this should get you
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  caught up
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  to where I'm thinking and where we are right now in the craziest presidential race
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  probably of all time.
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  So
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  here's your state of the race update for Friday,
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  July 26th,
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  2024.
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  We're talking about doing a little mini state
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  of the race here after all of these changes
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  and.
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  And you,
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  you tell me where I'm wrong on this,
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  because I think one of the things people
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  are
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  worried about
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  and thinking about at least is does Kamala
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  Harris actually have a chance in this race?
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  And
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  I think the answer to that is.
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  More of a chance than Joe Biden did.
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  And that's enough of a reason to,
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  to be rooting this entire time for Biden to stay in the race,
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  because if you have a dynamic in which
• 1:16
  you are virtually guaranteed a victory and quite possibly a blowout victory,
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  the last thing you want
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  is for any changes to occur in that dynamic.
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  So any change from Joe Biden to anyone.
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  It is probably a bad thing at the end of the day for Donald Trump.
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  It doesn't mean he's going to lose.
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  It doesn't mean he is even the underdog.
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  In fact,
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  I,
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  I don't think he is.
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  I would,
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  I would think that Kamala Harris is still the underdog,
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  but
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  there's very little that Kamala Harris
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  does
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  worse
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  than Joe Biden.
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  Of all the things that people complain about when it comes to Joe Biden,
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  overwhelmingly so at the very top of the list is his age.
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  86% of voters said he was too old
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  to run for another term.
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  And
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  that number with Kamala Harris goes from 86% to 0%.
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  So,
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  just that change
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  is a massive change in the dynamic and one
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  you don't want to see if you're Donald Trump.
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  That doesn't mean he's the underdog here.
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  It doesn't mean he's going to lose by any means.
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  But I will say that
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  you better run this race as if
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  Your
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  A
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  trip to the White House in January is being threatened.
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  I think Trump and his team will do that,
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  but it's not that you should not be
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  overconfident even though Kamala Harris is a dolt.
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  There's no doubt about that,
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  but
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  still,
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  uh,
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  she
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  is going to get overwhelmingly positive media attention.
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  They're going to do everything they can to hide her past.
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  We've seen it already,
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  that she didn't really support
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  the people burning Minnesota to the ground and
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  trying to get them bailed out of prison.
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  No,
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  you just imagine that.
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  Uh,
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  she wasn't really the border czar,
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  that was just a made-up title that we happened to include
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  in all our news reports a couple of years ago.
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  It's already happening,
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  and that will work on some people.
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  We wouldn't complain about the media all the time.
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  If it wasn't for the fact that some of their tactics will work
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  if people don't know the truth.
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  So,
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  that's a real possibility,
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  and I wouldn't.
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  I wouldn't sit here and
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  be panicked about Kamala Harris by any means,
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  but
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  concern should be there.
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  Concern should be here.
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  This is a more difficult race for him to win.
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  I mean,
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  if you just think about it this way,
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  I,
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  I watched the debate as everyone else did.
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  We did Blaze TV coverage.
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  And after that,
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  I watched the CNN
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  coverage of the debate just to watch them all wallow in,
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  in what had just happened.
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  And eventually,
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  about halfway through,
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  they brought on Kamala Harris as an interview to,
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  to try to defend
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  Joe Biden.
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  And,
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  Look,
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  there's a massive difference.
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  All of her word salad nonsense
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  that we have captured at Veepthoughts.com,
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  by the way,
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  over the years,
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  all that stuff is funny and it's bad,
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  but it's nowhere near as bad
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  as what Joe Biden put put on the table in that debate or really any other time since.
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  She is capable of speaking.
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  Yes,
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  sometimes it's gibberish,
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  but it is,
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  these are at least known English words
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  that she spits out.
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  So,
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  I kind of see this going one of two ways,
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  where you have
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  one way is she is seen as sort of a new candidate and,
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  uh,
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  gets a clean slate,
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  and people start comparing her
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  to what they just had
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  in Joe Biden,
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  and she will be able to clear that hurdle,
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  maybe by not a lot.
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  I don't think she's that,
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  I think she's below replacement level
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  Democrat,
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  but that doesn't mean she can't clear the Joe Biden hurdle.
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  She should be able to clear that.
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  As far as communication and certainly with age.
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  And so if all that stuff happens,
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  what you're looking at is probably a close election.
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  The type of election you would have imagined,
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  you know,
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  if,
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  if a,
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  you know,
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  Joe Biden was
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  65 and able to speak,
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  some sort of generic Republican.
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  Versus Democrat type of race,
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  and of course that's gonna be close because,
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  as you may have noticed,
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  there's a good
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  percentage of the population that does have Trump derangement syndrome,
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  and they will not vote for Trump no matter what,
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  so they will not even consider him.
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  And that,
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  you know,
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  some people,
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  and when Biden was the candidate,
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  were bailing on Biden and going to other candidates,
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  whether it's Cornel West or Jill Stein or RFK Junior,
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  whoever it was.
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  You know,
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  that,
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  those people are kind of allowing themselves to come home.
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  That's scenario one.
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  Scenario two is the one I would wish would happen
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  was that people would see this as what it was.
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  I mean,
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  basically a coup attempt.
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  Where they
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  overthrew the candidate that won the primary
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  because they thought he was gonna lose.
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  And
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  people will recognize that
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  Kamala Harris
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  lied to the American people
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  profusely for years about the mental acuity of this president,
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  lied over and over and over again,
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  and was a major,
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  if not the major force
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  in the cover-up
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  of his mental well-being.
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  And now continues to lie for him to,
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  for so that he can remain in office for whatever
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  deal they made for her to get the nomination.
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  If people see it that way,
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  and there's some evidence that they do,
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  you could be looking at not only a blowout,
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  but maybe a blowout that's even larger than what would have happened with Biden,
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  if there's that feeling that this was a cover-up and she should be held responsible.
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  There is new polling out on this,
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  by the way,
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  uh,
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  54% of voters believe
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  there was a cover-up of Biden's mental,
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  uh,
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  state.
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  30% don't believe that.
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  Of the people who do believe it though,
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  of the 54%,
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  almost every single person thinks Kamala Harris is responsible for it.
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  I think it's 92%.
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  So it is a major,
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  major factor.
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  Um,
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  it is.
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  You know,
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  I,
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  it's the type of thing I look at it.
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  It was probably a,
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  a 10% chance that Trump lost
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  when Biden was the nominee.
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  Now it might be 40%.
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  And I think people might think that's too high.
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  But
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  at the end of the day,
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  she is a bad Democrat.
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  She's not good at this.
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  You will find all sorts of things that annoy you and she will be terrible,
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  but
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  the bar to clear is Joe Biden right now,
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  and if that bar is cleared,
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  you're not excited about it,
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  if you're Donald Trump.
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  Um,
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  we can look at some of the polling
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  since the Biden dropout and the assassination attempt.
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  It all shows Biden and Harris really close,
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  frankly,
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  most of it does just show it as a close race.
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  She seems to be polling slightly better than Biden was,
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  but again,
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  Biden,
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  even after the debate was only behind by 3 points or so in the national polls.
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  That is not necessarily good news for Democrats.
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  Obviously,
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  being behind is bad,
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  but also they probably need to win by
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  about 2,
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  2.5 points in the popular vote to actually win
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  the election when it comes to the electoral college.
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  So that'll be something to watch.
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  They can't just be behind by 1
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  and be the favorites.
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  They will still be the underdogs.
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  Uh,
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  it's a fascinating thing to watch.
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  We'll need a couple more weeks on the polls to really,
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  uh,
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  to really note.
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  I will say one thing that's been interesting
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  is RFK Junior's support sort of falling apart
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  since Kamala became the nominee.
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  Those Democrats kind of
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  bailing on him,
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  going back.
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  And
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  I've seen two polls now where
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  RFK Junior is now hurting Trump more than Biden,
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  which is a reversal
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  to months and months and months of polling before that.
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  And that could be a factor going forward.
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  As well.
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  We cover this on State of the Race.
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  It's a podcast series available at Studios America wherever you get your podcast.
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  Check that out and we'll have more
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  coming up on Monday.