Latest / Toadstool Sports / SUNDAY BEST BETS | College Basketball Conference Tournaments & NHL & NBA | 3/15/26
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Yep.
- 0:01Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own seven
- 0:06Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
- 0:08Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
- 0:10Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
- 0:13Speaker 2: Sunday one and five. I don't even know what to
- 0:16Speaker 2: tell you above that.
- 0:17Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
- 0:19Speaker 1: never seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing.
- 0:24Speaker 1: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
- 0:28Speaker 1: I have not had a good season.
- 0:31Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
- 0:35Speaker 2: slump continues, I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to
- 0:40Speaker 2: burn my browins hat man, I don't know what is
- 0:43Speaker 2: going on with the bruins arch hape?
- 0:45Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
- 0:47Speaker 1: March ninth, I think who even knows? Man, I don't
- 0:51Speaker 1: know what day it is anymore. I don't even know
- 0:53Speaker 1: what data is anymore.
- 0:54Speaker 2: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
- 0:58Speaker 2: could possibly have, Back with you, I always am until
- 1:02Speaker 2: I die at least ohe and two. Yesterday and yesterday
- 1:06Speaker 2: it did not go well for me. Own five the
- 1:09Speaker 2: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
- 1:12Speaker 2: doing this.
- 1:13Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:15Speaker 1: To the slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
- 1:20Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please.
- 1:22Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
- 1:25Speaker 2: point other than potentially end it all.
- 1:33Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? It's towed back with you with Toad
- 1:35Speaker 1: still Sports.
- 1:36Speaker 2: It is Sunday Selection Sunday, March fifteenth. I'll probably come
- 1:42Speaker 2: back and do like a final bracketology show quickly. I
- 1:45Speaker 2: updated mine last night, so I have it pretty much
- 1:48Speaker 2: ready to go, so I think maybe I'll do that
- 1:50Speaker 2: while the games are going on here, so and then
- 1:52Speaker 2: I'll just tweet out like the actual final one, because
- 1:55Speaker 2: this one is close to finalized. But I do like
- 1:58Speaker 2: to look at like the betting odds, it's stuff to
- 2:01Speaker 2: try to kind of solidify it, which they weren't up
- 2:04Speaker 2: last night. We went on too on the show yesterday,
- 2:06Speaker 2: so that was awesome, even though the market agreed with
- 2:09Speaker 2: me on both.
- 2:11Speaker 1: Tulsa.
- 2:12Speaker 2: You know what I forgot to mention is, yeah, they
- 2:14Speaker 2: did play three overtime game the game prior to that,
- 2:16Speaker 2: but they hadn't played for days before that, so I
- 2:19Speaker 2: wasn't that worried about that. Plus it was a game
- 2:22Speaker 2: against a slow paced seam, so they weren't running up
- 2:24Speaker 2: and down the floor that much, so I wasn't as
- 2:27Speaker 2: concerned about that, and they completely fell apart in the
- 2:30Speaker 2: second half. The late money came in on Tulsa. The
- 2:32Speaker 2: market agreed with me, so I'm not happy about that.
- 2:35Speaker 2: I'm not happy about the Hornets, who kind of teased
- 2:39Speaker 2: like they were gonna get back within that number, and
- 2:41Speaker 2: they did not either. So yeah, it was bad, very bad.
- 2:46Speaker 2: We're gonna talk about the games today. I don't have
- 2:48Speaker 2: any place today. I don't like the board enough. We
- 2:51Speaker 2: got five college basketball games. These are all conference finals,
- 2:55Speaker 2: a couple of them for auto bids. The first one
- 2:58Speaker 2: up at noon is the Eye the League final between
- 3:01Speaker 2: Pennsylvania and Yale at Ithaca, New York. Of course, Yale
- 3:06Speaker 2: was able to take out Cornell yesterday. I did watch
- 3:10Speaker 2: a decent chunk of that game. The clock operator in
- 3:13Speaker 2: that game, dude, these clock operators. I've never seen worse
- 3:17Speaker 2: clock operation this college basketball postseason. That like, I've never
- 3:23Speaker 2: seen it worse than it is right now. You had
- 3:26Speaker 2: the Navy incident where they stopped the clock for four
- 3:29Speaker 2: seconds and bu eliminated Navy because of it. There were
- 3:34Speaker 2: a bunch of clock issues in the Whack game last
- 3:36Speaker 2: night too, which was Whack with Utah Valley and cal Baptist.
- 3:41Speaker 2: The Cornell Yale game was the worst out of all
- 3:44Speaker 2: of them.
- 3:45Speaker 1: Like there were at.
- 3:46Speaker 2: Least three or four different times where the clock operators
- 3:49Speaker 2: couldn't get the clock right. There were just a bunch
- 3:52Speaker 2: of really really weird calls that they were making in
- 3:55Speaker 2: that game that really didn't make any sense, just bad
- 3:57Speaker 2: foul calls and nonfoul calls. It was that whole repic
- 4:02Speaker 2: crew should be fired along with the clock operators. It
- 4:05Speaker 2: was insane, but Yale still proved to be the better team.
- 4:08Speaker 2: They were able to get out of there with a
- 4:10Speaker 2: win in the end and the covered as well. So
- 4:12Speaker 2: I actually got that game correct, even though that was
- 4:15Speaker 2: not one of my plays. Then Penn played the later
- 4:18Speaker 2: afternoon game in upset Harvard in a mild upset that
- 4:21Speaker 2: I believe went into overtime.
- 4:23Speaker 1: I watched the end of that one too.
- 4:25Speaker 2: Now I actually think Penn is the least of all
- 4:29Speaker 2: the teams that made it to the IVY League tournament years,
- 4:31Speaker 2: So Yale should win this game. Yale's in nine and
- 4:35Speaker 2: a half point favorite in this one for a reason.
- 4:38Speaker 2: I actually think I would probably need towards laying the
- 4:40Speaker 2: points as well.
- 4:42Speaker 1: The public, dude, Like.
- 4:44Speaker 2: When you looked at like I watched, like I looked
- 4:47Speaker 2: at some of the like talking heads, some of those
- 4:50Speaker 2: grass or those graphics where they picked like all the
- 4:54Speaker 2: different conference champions this tournament, Like the majority of them
- 4:58Speaker 2: picked Yale, which is obvious. But then the only other
- 5:01Speaker 2: pick that people made multiple people pick Penn.
- 5:05Speaker 1: I'm like, what I mean, I'm kind of.
- 5:08Speaker 2: Surprised they beat Harvard, but like Cornell had the second
- 5:11Speaker 2: best odds, like betting odds wise, Cornell had the second
- 5:14Speaker 2: best odds to win this thing, and Penn had the
- 5:17Speaker 2: worst odds. So I'm like, I don't know, it doesn't
- 5:19Speaker 2: make any sense. It just seems like Penn is actually
- 5:22Speaker 2: oddly public.
- 5:23Speaker 1: And I think it's because I totally.
- 5:24Speaker 2: Forgot until I was watching some of the Penn game yesterday.
- 5:28Speaker 2: Their coach is actually fran McCaffrey, who was no longer
- 5:31Speaker 2: at Iowa.
- 5:33Speaker 1: That's where he went.
- 5:34Speaker 2: Definitely a downgrade going to Pennsylvania. I don't know, I
- 5:38Speaker 2: just don't like the way that he runs his teams
- 5:42Speaker 2: to be honest, like, I don't like those fast paced,
- 5:45Speaker 2: bad defense teams. Yale should get it done. Fifty five
- 5:48Speaker 2: percent of ticket, sixty eight percent of the cash on Yale.
- 5:51Speaker 1: I would lean towards laying it.
- 5:52Speaker 2: But would I actually want to do it now in
- 5:55Speaker 2: a championship game. Probably not. But I'll be extremely pissed
- 5:59Speaker 2: of the lose, obviously, But they shouldn't. So yesterday should
- 6:04Speaker 2: have been a bigger test for them, hopefully, and they
- 6:07Speaker 2: got that done.
- 6:10Speaker 1: Mister Pinze, what's up? No, I was rooting for Ole Miss.
- 6:16Speaker 2: I mean, I thought Arkansas would win and cover, but yeah,
- 6:19Speaker 2: I wanted Old Miss to win that game.
- 6:21Speaker 1: I want the.
- 6:21Speaker 2: Bubble to get all fucked up so that Miami Ohio
- 6:26Speaker 2: doesn't get in. So you know, maybe Dayton winning today
- 6:30Speaker 2: would cause that because VCU has a pretty good at
- 6:34Speaker 2: large case Kyle, what's up.
- 6:37Speaker 1: Cornell? Well, Cornell, that's all they do.
- 6:39Speaker 2: They shoot, They play absolutely no defense, They play fast,
- 6:43Speaker 2: They score better than any team in that conference probably,
- 6:47Speaker 2: but their defense is unbelievably bad.
- 6:50Speaker 1: Like they just don't even play defense.
- 6:52Speaker 2: All they do is run up and down the court
- 6:53Speaker 2: and try to score as fast as possible, like Yale
- 6:58Speaker 2: was able to slow them down quite a bit in
- 6:59Speaker 2: that game. Game all right, The A ten game is
- 7:03Speaker 2: the next game after that between Dayton and VCU. Actually
- 7:08Speaker 2: I guess the SEC game is at the same time,
- 7:10Speaker 2: but this one's on CBS. Dayton, of course, was able
- 7:14Speaker 2: to win against Saint Louis yesterday. I still think Saint
- 7:18Speaker 2: Louis is in the tournament. I have them as a
- 7:20Speaker 2: nine seed in my bracketology right now. Saint Louis had
- 7:24Speaker 2: a really good season. I think they should get in,
- 7:26Speaker 2: but they've been struggling a lot. Dayton is a pretty
- 7:30Speaker 2: good team, though. Man, both these teams, I think, besides
- 7:34Speaker 2: Saint Louis, these are the other two best teams in
- 7:36Speaker 2: this conference. So you know, no, it's not really that
- 7:41Speaker 2: weird that these teams are here, you know again, I
- 7:45Speaker 2: thought VCU had the best path to get through this,
- 7:48Speaker 2: and I do think they're probably gonna win the game today.
- 7:50Speaker 1: But VCU, I mean, they looked really good yesterday.
- 7:52Speaker 2: If you didn't see, they blew out a very very
- 7:55Speaker 2: overrated Saint Joe's team.
- 7:57Speaker 1: I told you, dude, I can't believe.
- 7:59Speaker 2: David's in law as bad as they did to that
- 8:01Speaker 2: Saint Joe's team.
- 8:02Speaker 1: That team is bad. Saint Joe's. They're horrible on offense.
- 8:06Speaker 2: VCU was winning that game thirty one to nine at
- 8:09Speaker 2: one point. Against Saint Joe's yesterday, they wound up cruising
- 8:13Speaker 2: to an easy win, whereas Dayton had a very difficult
- 8:16Speaker 2: game that went right to the wire against Saint Louis.
- 8:19Speaker 1: The end of that game was crazy. Dayton I believe
- 8:24Speaker 1: the sequence of events. I was watching the end of it.
- 8:26Speaker 1: I couldn't believe it.
- 8:27Speaker 2: I think Dayton, they, I believe, got an offensive rebound, kicked.
- 8:32Speaker 1: It out, hit a three. Saint Louis didn't call a timeout. Uh.
- 8:36Speaker 1: Saint Louis had a play where they just kind of.
- 8:39Speaker 2: Flipped it back to Ovula for like a long three
- 8:42Speaker 2: at the top of the key, and he nailed it
- 8:44Speaker 2: with like four seconds left.
- 8:47Speaker 1: Dayton then also didn't call a timeout.
- 8:50Speaker 2: They ran up the floor and they got up to
- 8:51Speaker 2: the basket a well defended kind of like lay up attempt,
- 8:55Speaker 2: put up attempt, whatever you want to call it, totally missed.
- 8:58Speaker 2: But then a guy on the other side of the
- 9:00Speaker 2: basket for Dayton was able to get in there, get
- 9:02Speaker 2: the rebound and tip it in wither point six seconds left.
- 9:06Speaker 1: It look like it was really less than that, and
- 9:08Speaker 1: that's how they won the game.
- 9:09Speaker 2: Saint Louis didn't have enough time to get like a
- 9:11Speaker 2: legit shot off.
- 9:12Speaker 1: After that, it was an insane ending to that game.
- 9:17Speaker 2: Prior to that, Dayton kind of got bailed out because
- 9:20Speaker 2: Saint Louis, Saint Louis was gonna be getting intentionally fouled
- 9:24Speaker 2: to Saint Louis was up one with like twenty something
- 9:27Speaker 2: seconds left with the ball, like all they had to
- 9:29Speaker 2: do was inbound it and get intentionally fouled. Dayton obviously
- 9:33Speaker 2: full court, pressed, pressed, and for some reason, Saint Louis
- 9:37Speaker 2: the guy who was gonna inbound it. You know, they
- 9:41Speaker 2: switched inbound er. See how you could do that?
- 9:43Speaker 1: You could as long.
- 9:44Speaker 2: As you don't inbound the ball or whatever, you stay
- 9:46Speaker 2: on the baseline, you're allowed to give it to another
- 9:49Speaker 2: guy to inbound it, as long as he comes out
- 9:51Speaker 2: and then you go enter the court. I'm pretty sure.
- 9:56Speaker 2: But they had they switched to have Ovula inbounded, and
- 9:59Speaker 2: he might be the worst inbound passer that I've ever seen,
- 10:03Speaker 2: and he couldn't get it off, and it was a
- 10:04Speaker 2: five second violation and he threw it away and that's
- 10:08Speaker 2: what gave Dayton the possession that wound up giving them
- 10:11Speaker 2: the lead, Whereas if they if Saint Louis had just
- 10:13Speaker 2: inbounded it, they would have been going to the line.
- 10:15Speaker 1: For free throws up one.
- 10:19Speaker 2: It was I don't know how that dude, that was ridiculous.
- 10:22Speaker 2: But anyway, Yeah, VCU is a three and a half
- 10:25Speaker 2: way favorite right now, up from two. So if you
- 10:27Speaker 2: do like them, you're laying a little bit more of
- 10:29Speaker 2: a price there for it. Sixty four percent of tickets,
- 10:33Speaker 2: eighty two percent of the cash on them. I think
- 10:36Speaker 2: VCU is the better team, so you know, I don't
- 10:39Speaker 2: really disagree with that move. I think they will win.
- 10:42Speaker 2: I would lean towards the covering, but I don't want it.
- 10:46Speaker 2: So that game in Pittsburgh, as I will remind you,
- 10:49Speaker 2: which is I think, Well, it is definitely close to
- 10:52Speaker 2: to Dayton.
- 10:53Speaker 1: So there is that Dayton.
- 10:57Speaker 2: You know, both teams want to get the autumn because
- 11:00Speaker 2: VCU is on the bubble, so they're definitely not secure.
- 11:02Speaker 2: But Dayton does not have an at large case, so
- 11:05Speaker 2: they would have to win this game. If VCU loses
- 11:08Speaker 2: this game, they do potentially have a case to get
- 11:12Speaker 2: in at large bid. We will see because you know,
- 11:15Speaker 2: those spots are being taken up. And then, of course,
- 11:19Speaker 2: as I said, the IVY League game is in Ithaca.
- 11:26Speaker 1: Yeah, Miami Ohio.
- 11:27Speaker 2: Yeah, they're like ninety third and ken Pum they're you know,
- 11:31Speaker 2: they're lower in ken Bum than Utah Valley and some
- 11:34Speaker 2: of these other teams like that.
- 11:37Speaker 1: Miami Ohio. I mean, we'll talk about it.
- 11:39Speaker 2: I'm assuming they probably are gonna be in the tournament,
- 11:41Speaker 2: which is pretty lame, but you know, we'll talk about
- 11:45Speaker 2: it when.
- 11:45Speaker 1: We start breaking down the tournament.
- 11:48Speaker 2: Like, I don't know if I'm actually gonna want to
- 11:50Speaker 2: play against them in like the first round or whatever,
- 11:53Speaker 2: even though they will be really overhyped. All right, the
- 11:55Speaker 2: SEC Final. People probably did not expect this matchup.
- 11:59Speaker 1: Well.
- 11:59Speaker 2: I think probably a lot of people thought Arkansas would
- 12:01Speaker 2: get here, but I don't think people called Vandy getting here.
- 12:05Speaker 2: On the other side, Vandy, dude, the analytics tell you
- 12:09Speaker 2: that Vandy is a very good team and actually better
- 12:13Speaker 2: than Arkansas. If you look at ken Bom, Vandy's offense
- 12:17Speaker 2: is only slightly worse than Arkansas's, and Vandy has a
- 12:20Speaker 2: better defense than Arkansas does. Vandy's the more well rounded
- 12:24Speaker 2: team here.
- 12:25Speaker 1: Uh.
- 12:25Speaker 2: The analytics have really liked Vandy all year, and people
- 12:28Speaker 2: just continue to not think they're legit. I mean, I
- 12:31Speaker 2: know they haven't really been in this situation before and
- 12:34Speaker 2: they're not used to it.
- 12:36Speaker 1: Uh. Arkansas has the more experienced.
- 12:38Speaker 2: Coach obviously with with Cali Parry there. But Vandy they're
- 12:43Speaker 2: pretty good. I think they're an underrated commodity here. Fifty
- 12:47Speaker 2: six percent of tickets, sixty one percent of the cash
- 12:49Speaker 2: on Vandy.
- 12:49Speaker 1: They're up to a two point favorite.
- 12:51Speaker 2: Now, Dude, I actually kind of lean to Arkansas in
- 12:56Speaker 2: this game though, but it's more because of the situation.
- 12:59Speaker 1: Now.
- 13:00Speaker 2: Arkansas does have the coaching edge I would have to
- 13:02Speaker 2: say here, so there is that.
- 13:04Speaker 1: But Vandy just beat Florida.
- 13:06Speaker 2: Dude, even though it looks like the percentages are not
- 13:09Speaker 2: bearing it out.
- 13:11Speaker 1: I thought Vandy would be would be the public.
- 13:14Speaker 2: Side here because they beat Florida, Like you get a lot,
- 13:17Speaker 2: Like how do you not get a ton of credit
- 13:19Speaker 2: like in the public's eye for beating Florida, who hadn't
- 13:22Speaker 2: like Florida hadn't lost since I don't even know. I
- 13:25Speaker 2: think they lost really early in conference play and then
- 13:27Speaker 2: never lost again. They lost to Auburn, by the way,
- 13:31Speaker 2: their only conference home loss, and I think one of
- 13:33Speaker 2: like two conference losses. So I don't know, that was
- 13:38Speaker 2: a huge win for Vandy, Whereas Arkansas got taken into
- 13:41Speaker 2: overtime by oh Miss, So you know, Arkansas is one
- 13:45Speaker 2: of those teams that got a scare as a favorite,
- 13:47Speaker 2: whereas Vandy is one of those teams that pulled off
- 13:49Speaker 2: an upset. So for that reason, I would have to
- 13:53Speaker 2: lean to Arkansas, But you know, I have my reservations
- 13:56Speaker 2: about it, because again, Vandy is actually the better team,
- 14:00Speaker 2: the more well rounded team. They're under the radar. They
- 14:04Speaker 2: look like they're actually getting the money here, fifty six
- 14:06Speaker 2: percent of ticket, sixty one percent of the cash on them.
- 14:08Speaker 1: They're up to a two point favorite.
- 14:10Speaker 2: And Arkansas they are pretty reliant on one guy, a Cuff,
- 14:14Speaker 2: and he is a freshman. So I don't love teams
- 14:18Speaker 2: like that in you know, like in high profile games
- 14:22Speaker 2: like this, you know, because if Vandy is able to
- 14:25Speaker 2: take a Cuff out of the game, they're probably gonna
- 14:27Speaker 2: win the game, you know. So those are kind of
- 14:30Speaker 2: my reservations there about that. Also kind of funny that
- 14:35Speaker 2: this could have been Florida against Arkansas and Florida as
- 14:38Speaker 2: Boogie Flann, who wasn't Arkansas last year?
- 14:42Speaker 1: You want Arkansas to win? Why?
- 14:45Speaker 2: Like from a rooting interest, I would definitely prefer to
- 14:47Speaker 2: be Vanned. I mean cal Perry, I'm not a fan
- 14:50Speaker 2: of him at all. I don't know, man No, I
- 14:54Speaker 2: would much prefer to be Vandy because they're never here.
- 15:00Speaker 2: American Conference Final is Wichita in South Florida. I think
- 15:05Speaker 2: this game would have been more interesting if it was
- 15:07Speaker 2: South Florida and Tulsa. South Florida interesting team. They go fast,
- 15:12Speaker 2: but they're really well rounded, Like they actually play pretty
- 15:15Speaker 2: well defensively, which a lot of times you don't get
- 15:18Speaker 2: from a fast paced team.
- 15:19Speaker 1: Wichita is gonna try to slow this game way down.
- 15:23Speaker 1: And Wichita is good defensively. They're not that good on
- 15:26Speaker 1: the offensive side, but they slow it down.
- 15:28Speaker 2: They play good defense. They're a pretty sound, fundamental team.
- 15:34Speaker 2: South Florida is the better team and they are favored here.
- 15:37Speaker 2: Oh by the way, the SEC game, like I said,
- 15:39Speaker 2: is in Nashville, so it's actually in Vandy's home city.
- 15:43Speaker 2: So Vandy does have that location edge there as well,
- 15:46Speaker 2: which is the only thing like that that we have today.
- 15:50Speaker 2: The American Conference is in Birmingham, Alabama. As you guys
- 15:54Speaker 2: probably know, South Florida is a five and a half
- 15:56Speaker 2: way favorite here sixty three percent of tickets sixty and
- 16:00Speaker 2: the cash on them.
- 16:00Speaker 1: South Florida cruised yesterday.
- 16:03Speaker 2: They played the earlier game yesterday, as did Vanderbilt, by
- 16:08Speaker 2: the way, so I am pointing all that out. Dayton
- 16:10Speaker 2: also played the earlier game, so I'll just point that
- 16:12Speaker 2: out if you care about like a slight rest advantage.
- 16:16Speaker 2: South Florida just cruised in their game against Charlotte. Though
- 16:19Speaker 2: Charlotte's hot shooting came to an end. They were a
- 16:21Speaker 2: complete fraud. South Florida had a really easy win, whereas
- 16:25Speaker 2: Wichita beating Tulsa. That's not as easy to do, even
- 16:28Speaker 2: though they had a pretty big lead by the end
- 16:30Speaker 2: of it, so that game was pretty much over as well.
- 16:35Speaker 2: South Florida should win this game, and I want to
- 16:38Speaker 2: see them in the tournament, man, so hopefully they do
- 16:42Speaker 2: get it done here. Wichita is not a horrible team, though,
- 16:44Speaker 2: I think the third best team in this conference.
- 16:48Speaker 1: We'll see what happens.
- 16:49Speaker 2: I mean, I think I would actually slightly lean to
- 16:51Speaker 2: South Florida here, but it's gonna be, yeah, difficult to
- 16:55Speaker 2: figure out. Also, actually, I should look at what these
- 16:57Speaker 2: teams did during the regular season. I'm all over the
- 17:00Speaker 2: place this morning. I forgot to mention all this.
- 17:02Speaker 1: Yale, by the way, they barely.
- 17:04Speaker 2: Got by Pen the last time they played at home,
- 17:06Speaker 2: they only beat them by four, and they beat them
- 17:08Speaker 2: by seventeen on the road. But the most recent matchup,
- 17:12Speaker 2: beating them by just four at home, Yale will probably
- 17:15Speaker 2: take them a little bit more seriously after that, So
- 17:17Speaker 2: that's another reason to look towards Yale there. I would
- 17:21Speaker 2: say for Vandy and Arkansas, I think they played one
- 17:24Speaker 2: time during the regular season.
- 17:27Speaker 1: Let me see, Yeah, Arkansas.
- 17:29Speaker 2: Actually absolutely like they destroyed Vandy at Arkansas ninety three
- 17:34Speaker 2: to sixty eight. But anytime you see a blowout like that,
- 17:38Speaker 2: I think that you could probably kind of be misled
- 17:40Speaker 2: by that. Like I think Arkansas might actually take Vandy
- 17:44Speaker 2: a little bit lightly knowing that they beat them like that.
- 17:48Speaker 2: So I don't know, that would be another reason maybe
- 17:50Speaker 2: actually look towards Vandy in that game. So you can
- 17:53Speaker 2: see why I don't want to have a play on
- 17:55Speaker 2: any of these games.
- 17:55Speaker 1: Man. And then for Dayton and VCU. Dayton did lose
- 17:59Speaker 1: really recently.
- 18:00Speaker 2: At home to VCU by six, and that was their
- 18:03Speaker 2: only Actually they lost twice to VCU. There are two,
- 18:11Speaker 2: like most recent conference losses were those two. But it
- 18:14Speaker 2: does look like VCU might kind of have the upper
- 18:16Speaker 2: hand against Dayton though, the fact that they beat them
- 18:19Speaker 2: by twenty six at VCU and then by six at Dayton.
- 18:23Speaker 2: That might be a situation where VCU just is the
- 18:26Speaker 2: better team and just has the upper hand against them.
- 18:29Speaker 2: Wichita in South Florida. Wichita lost by eight at home
- 18:35Speaker 2: against South Florida, and I believe that was the only
- 18:39Speaker 2: oh no, and they won. Actually they won at South Florida.
- 18:42Speaker 2: They won by one, so the road team won each matchup.
- 18:45Speaker 2: So if the zig zag continues, Wichita would actually be
- 18:50Speaker 2: the correct side if the zigzag continues.
- 18:52Speaker 1: In that one.
- 18:53Speaker 2: But I don't know, man, I think the spot sets
- 18:56Speaker 2: up a little bit better, a little bit better for
- 18:58Speaker 2: South Florida. But I do think Wichita is the slightly
- 19:01Speaker 2: better defense. South Florida has a way better offense though,
- 19:06Speaker 2: and if they're able to, you know, speed this thing
- 19:08Speaker 2: up and get Wichita out of their comfort zone, that's
- 19:11Speaker 2: what South Florida is gonna try to do to try
- 19:13Speaker 2: to win that game, and then the Big Ten Championship
- 19:15Speaker 2: in Chicago is Purdue and Michigan. Michigan won the regular
- 19:20Speaker 2: season matchup. I think there was only one of them.
- 19:22Speaker 2: They won at Purdue, which a lot of teams did
- 19:25Speaker 2: this year.
- 19:26Speaker 1: The Upper Rachealon teams did.
- 19:27Speaker 2: They won by eleven, so maybe you know, Michigan will
- 19:31Speaker 2: take them a little bit lightly for that reason. Purdue
- 19:35Speaker 2: is coming off beating Ucla yesterday though, so you know
- 19:39Speaker 2: that was a game that wasn't really that impressive of
- 19:42Speaker 2: a win.
- 19:42Speaker 1: Uclasen playing a lot better recently.
- 19:45Speaker 2: I think UCLA had a couple of guys get injured
- 19:47Speaker 2: in that game. I think Dent was one of them,
- 19:49Speaker 2: and I don't know if he came back or not.
- 19:53Speaker 2: Purdue was able to get through the game, though I
- 19:55Speaker 2: think they probably should have covered. To be honest, they
- 19:57Speaker 2: were winning by double digits late in the game. Purdue
- 19:59Speaker 2: dev kind of handled them in that game.
- 20:02Speaker 1: O whurs.
- 20:02Speaker 2: Michigan had a much closer call against Wisconsin, who gave
- 20:06Speaker 2: them another run for their money.
- 20:08Speaker 1: Here.
- 20:08Speaker 2: Michigan did get by, but you could maybe consider that
- 20:11Speaker 2: to be a scare for Michigan. You know, when a
- 20:14Speaker 2: huge favorite gets a scare like that, like Michigan, a
- 20:17Speaker 2: lot of times they come out with a lot better
- 20:18Speaker 2: effort in the next game. Purdue had the much easier
- 20:22Speaker 2: game though, So I don't dislike Purdue in this game.
- 20:24Speaker 2: You know, the money is coming in on Purdue, and
- 20:27Speaker 2: they were my pick at this conference to be like the.
- 20:30Speaker 1: Value play here.
- 20:31Speaker 2: If you did, you know, put in a future on
- 20:33Speaker 2: Purdue or something, I probably would hedge some of it
- 20:36Speaker 2: on Michigan though, on the money line, but Michigan up
- 20:41Speaker 2: to minus seven here, fifty six percent of the tickets
- 20:43Speaker 2: around Michigan, seventy one percent of the cash on Purdue
- 20:47Speaker 2: money coming back in on Purdue.
- 20:48Speaker 1: There.
- 20:51Speaker 2: You know, the market read is saying, take the points
- 20:53Speaker 2: of Purdue, this game is at Chicago.
- 20:56Speaker 1: Do what you want to with that info Purdue.
- 21:02Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you gotta like pick your spots with them. Which, yeah,
- 21:07Speaker 2: I've had a pretty decent handle on Purdue, to be honest, Like,
- 21:10Speaker 2: I think I gave out their opponent a couple of
- 21:13Speaker 2: times and got wins with that, and then I don't know,
- 21:16Speaker 2: I've been I don't know, I've had a good read
- 21:18Speaker 2: on Purdue. I think this year on the show here,
- 21:22Speaker 2: but I I kind of like Purdue just because I
- 21:26Speaker 2: think they're a very undervalue team right now.
- 21:30Speaker 1: You know, the public doesn't want anything to do with them.
- 21:32Speaker 2: Because because they beginning screwed trying to play Purdue, like
- 21:35Speaker 2: in their home games and stuff. But yeah, I don't
- 21:38Speaker 2: know Purdue. They're gonna be an overlooked team in the tournament.
- 21:42Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure, Like I think the move We'll have
- 21:45Speaker 2: to see what the bracket looks like, but I think
- 21:46Speaker 2: one of the moves is gonna be to take Purdue
- 21:48Speaker 2: further than most people want to in the bracket.
- 21:51Speaker 1: Like I did that last year too. I had them
- 21:53Speaker 1: to the.
- 21:53Speaker 2: Sweet sixteen because like more people had Clems than then
- 21:57Speaker 2: Purdue getting to the sweet sixteen. I showed you when
- 22:00Speaker 2: I did my game theory thing. That was like one
- 22:02Speaker 2: of those switch points where I was like, you probably
- 22:04Speaker 2: get a couple extra points on people if you get
- 22:08Speaker 2: this thing right, because Purdue actually was favored over Clemson
- 22:11Speaker 2: to get to that point and they were the less
- 22:15Speaker 2: pick team, so I was like, we gotta do it
- 22:17Speaker 2: all right. NHL, we have a few NHL games here,
- 22:22Speaker 2: several really I don't like these games.
- 22:25Speaker 1: Man.
- 22:26Speaker 2: NHL Network has the three pm game between Saint Louis
- 22:29Speaker 2: and Winnipeg. When I first looked at this, I thought
- 22:31Speaker 2: I was gonna give out a play on Winnipeg though,
- 22:33Speaker 2: because Saint Louis they just beat Carolina on Thursday on
- 22:37Speaker 2: the road, and then they turned around and beat Edmonton
- 22:39Speaker 2: the next day, you know, overtime. So they're coming off
- 22:42Speaker 2: two monster wins and this is not a good Saint
- 22:45Speaker 2: Louis team. Now they're coming off all that with one
- 22:48Speaker 2: day off. I'm like, yeah, I don't like it here
- 22:50Speaker 2: going to Winnipeg. Problem is, Winnipeg just had a huge
- 22:53Speaker 2: game as well. They just beat Colorado yesterday, so they're
- 22:59Speaker 2: on a back to back rest, they are staying at home.
- 23:02Speaker 2: Likely Hellabook probably won't be in net for this one
- 23:04Speaker 2: because it is a back to back.
- 23:06Speaker 1: Probably they'll finally switch back.
- 23:07Speaker 2: To comery and they're in a letdout spot off of
- 23:10Speaker 2: a win over Colorado. So I don't see how you could,
- 23:13Speaker 2: you know, actually play Winnipeg here. Seventy four percent of
- 23:16Speaker 2: tickets fifty six percent of the cash on Winnipeg, so
- 23:19Speaker 2: the money is actually indicating against them. They're down for
- 23:21Speaker 2: minus one twenty five to minus one sixteen. Of course
- 23:25Speaker 2: they will have their lesser goalie here. I like the
- 23:28Speaker 2: over in this game. I mean I don't trust Saint
- 23:30Speaker 2: Louis's goalies either one of them, and with Comery probably
- 23:33Speaker 2: being in net for Winnipeg, both teams in bad spots
- 23:36Speaker 2: which might affect their defenses. Total is not very high
- 23:40Speaker 2: at five and a half, which usually that indicates you
- 23:44Speaker 2: you don't want to really look towards an over here,
- 23:46Speaker 2: But I think over would be the way I would
- 23:48Speaker 2: look at that game San Jose in Ottawa, although the
- 23:51Speaker 2: money's disagreeing with me on that.
- 23:53Speaker 1: By the way, the over is public.
- 23:55Speaker 2: San Jose has got another win yesterday at Montreal.
- 24:00Speaker 1: Nice win for them.
- 24:01Speaker 2: Man, now they're playing a third game in four days,
- 24:03Speaker 2: four and six, all in different cities.
- 24:06Speaker 1: That's not easy to do.
- 24:07Speaker 2: They got Edmonton on decks, so they're this spot looks
- 24:11Speaker 2: a little bit SANDWICHI because Montreal and Edmonton are definitely
- 24:14Speaker 2: better than Ottawa and kind of draw your attention more
- 24:17Speaker 2: than Ottawa will.
- 24:19Speaker 1: Ottawa did get.
- 24:20Speaker 2: A nice shutout win yesterday against Anaheim, but they had
- 24:23Speaker 2: a couple of days off prior to that. And they're
- 24:25Speaker 2: staying at home, so the rest is better for them.
- 24:27Speaker 2: I like Ottawa in this one. The money's not agreeing
- 24:30Speaker 2: with me on that though. They're also minus two to
- 24:34Speaker 2: h two, So the oddsmaker's.
- 24:36Speaker 1: Kind of telling you.
- 24:36Speaker 2: They're actually telling you Outawa is not as bad as
- 24:38Speaker 2: you think they are, and they're telling you San Jose
- 24:41Speaker 2: is worse than you think they are. So the odds
- 24:43Speaker 2: bakers are giving you that information by lining Outawa that heavy.
- 24:48Speaker 2: Probably that means a oh Mark is probably in net
- 24:50Speaker 2: he is really good. Sixty four percent of tickets, fifty
- 24:54Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash on Autawa though, so the
- 24:56Speaker 2: money is fading Ottawa, which I.
- 24:58Speaker 1: Don't really agree. Like I said, I agree with that,
- 25:02Speaker 1: I would look towards Ottawa in that game.
- 25:06Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I don't know how I would want
- 25:07Speaker 2: to play it though, Like I guess you could make
- 25:09Speaker 2: an argument for the puck line, but I'm not really
- 25:11Speaker 2: interested in it. Anaheim at Montreal. Both of these teams
- 25:15Speaker 2: lost to those two teams that I just mentioned yesterday,
- 25:18Speaker 2: so the teams are just swapping opponents here. Anaheim was
- 25:23Speaker 2: the team that lost to Ottaway yesterday. They're playing a
- 25:26Speaker 2: lot of road games.
- 25:27Speaker 1: In a row too, though.
- 25:28Speaker 2: They're playing a third game of four day's, fourth game
- 25:30Speaker 2: in six days, fifth game in eight days, all in
- 25:32Speaker 2: different cities.
- 25:33Speaker 1: Not easy to do.
- 25:35Speaker 2: They did just beat Montreal on March sixth as well,
- 25:38Speaker 2: so maybe there's a little bit of a revenge angle
- 25:40Speaker 2: from Montreal here. Montreal just had a bad loss, Like
- 25:43Speaker 2: I said to San Jose, they had multiple days off
- 25:45Speaker 2: prior to that though, and they're staying at home, So
- 25:49Speaker 2: I think Montreal might be the better way to look here.
- 25:51Speaker 2: And the money's not agreeing with that either. Anaheim's not
- 25:54Speaker 2: really that good on the road either. Montreal down to
- 25:57Speaker 2: minus one forty two here. Sixty eight percent of TWA
- 26:00Speaker 2: gets sixty three percent of the cash on them, So
- 26:02Speaker 2: the money disagreeing with Montreal as well.
- 26:05Speaker 1: I don't agree with it. Do with that information.
- 26:08Speaker 2: What you want Toronto at Minnesota is the primetime game
- 26:12Speaker 2: on TNT, HBO, Max True TV. Toronto not playing well, man,
- 26:21Speaker 2: they just lost again. Well, they actually played okay against Buffalo.
- 26:24Speaker 2: They did cover the plus one and a half puck
- 26:26Speaker 2: line if you took them on that puck line there,
- 26:28Speaker 2: or if you did like a plus one puck line
- 26:31Speaker 2: type of scenario, pushed on it. That was a big
- 26:34Speaker 2: game yesterday for them against Buffalo. It is the first
- 26:36Speaker 2: game without Austin Matthews since he's heard again and think
- 26:39Speaker 2: he's out for the season now. Toronto having to turn
- 26:42Speaker 2: around go to Minnesota off of a tough game against
- 26:45Speaker 2: Buffalo with no time off playing a lot of games.
- 26:48Speaker 2: This is a fourth game in six days, all in
- 26:51Speaker 2: different cities. That's not going to be easy to do.
- 26:54Speaker 2: Minnesota actually did not or no, they did play yesterday.
- 26:56Speaker 1: They had a bad loss.
- 26:57Speaker 2: At home to the Rangers, who are better on the road,
- 27:00Speaker 2: though Rangers have been good since the Olympic break too,
- 27:05Speaker 2: by Minnesota coming up with the much uglier loss. I
- 27:07Speaker 2: would lean to Minnesota in this one. They're all the
- 27:10Speaker 2: way up to minus two forty now though they were
- 27:13Speaker 2: a much cheaper price early. It looks like they opened
- 27:15Speaker 2: one fifty five, which maybe is not accurate. I don't know,
- 27:19Speaker 2: but they're a really heavy favorite here. But I think
- 27:20Speaker 2: if I was gonna play it, I would probably I
- 27:23Speaker 2: guess Puck lined it on Minnesota there. I mean, don't
- 27:27Speaker 2: really see the percentages of that, but I think I
- 27:29Speaker 2: would lean to Minnesota in that game. Nashville had Edmonton.
- 27:33Speaker 2: Nashville just had a bad loss to Vancouver. Vancouver very
- 27:37Speaker 2: bad team. Nashville has had multiple days off though they
- 27:41Speaker 2: haven't played since Thursday, so they're one of the more
- 27:44Speaker 2: rested teams in hockey here. So they're in a pretty
- 27:48Speaker 2: positive spot here. You gotta think they will get up
- 27:50Speaker 2: for a game against Edmonton. Edmonton returning home from a
- 27:54Speaker 2: road trip. Now, they did lose the last two games
- 27:57Speaker 2: really badly to Dallas, and then they lost this Lewis
- 28:00Speaker 2: the next night. Now the returning home. But you know,
- 28:02Speaker 2: I talk about this the return home spot, it's a
- 28:04Speaker 2: bad spot. A lot of times you get distracted. You
- 28:08Speaker 2: have to get back to home life. Even if they
- 28:10Speaker 2: are trying to bounce back from bad losses, a lot
- 28:12Speaker 2: of times it doesn't happen. They're playing a third game
- 28:16Speaker 2: in four and as fourth and sixth, fifth and eight
- 28:19Speaker 2: all in different cities.
- 28:20Speaker 1: So that's really really difficult to do.
- 28:24Speaker 2: Six game in ten days as well, by the way,
- 28:27Speaker 2: with the first of those being back at home. So yeah,
- 28:31Speaker 2: it's not a good spot for Edmonton. Man, I would
- 28:34Speaker 2: fade Edmonton here if I was gonna play this game.
- 28:38Speaker 2: Lean for me would be in Nashville. Edmonton's up to
- 28:40Speaker 2: minus one seventy two. You get a decent price on
- 28:43Speaker 2: Nashville there, you know, in fact that one is probably
- 28:47Speaker 2: the most tempting to give it a look actually, like
- 28:50Speaker 2: that would be my strongest opinion on the board here,
- 28:53Speaker 2: probably out of any of the games I've talked about
- 28:55Speaker 2: so far in either sport, I think that's the best
- 28:57Speaker 2: game to look at Nashville, probably partially on the puck line,
- 29:01Speaker 2: partially on the money line there. I guess, well, Edmonton,
- 29:06Speaker 2: I know who they have next. They have San Jose next,
- 29:08Speaker 2: so I don't know, you know, I guess you could
- 29:11Speaker 2: make the argument that's.
- 29:12Speaker 1: A look ahead for Edmonton. San Jose.
- 29:14Speaker 2: I mean, they're not great, but they are a conference
- 29:17Speaker 2: team for Edmonton at the very least.
- 29:20Speaker 1: Florida at Seattle, Florida. They're on a little bit of.
- 29:24Speaker 2: A run right now, won three games in a row.
- 29:28Speaker 2: They just be Columbus in overtime. They've had a couple
- 29:30Speaker 2: of days off, which sometimes that can hurt your winning
- 29:33Speaker 2: momentum if that happens. But I think they're gonna be
- 29:35Speaker 2: focused because they just almost lost to Columbus. They're starting
- 29:38Speaker 2: a road trip. Usually you start a road trip. When
- 29:42Speaker 2: you start a road trip, you usually are focused.
- 29:44Speaker 1: It's not gonna be a late game.
- 29:45Speaker 2: It's at eight pm, so that's better for an Eastern
- 29:49Speaker 2: you know, an East Coast team going out west. If
- 29:51Speaker 2: they play like a ten pm game in that first game,
- 29:54Speaker 2: a lot of times, it'll mess with their biological clock.
- 29:56Speaker 2: But eight pm not gonna be as bad. Seattle just
- 30:01Speaker 2: beat Vancouver to end a losing streak, so I think
- 30:03Speaker 2: they're in a positive spot too. But they're returning home
- 30:06Speaker 2: from Vancouver. They played yesterday. They did use Groobauer and
- 30:10Speaker 2: net so decord. We'll be back in net for them here.
- 30:12Speaker 2: Who is their better goaling? They're not gonna overlook Florida,
- 30:16Speaker 2: but they did play yesterday, so I kind of like
- 30:18Speaker 2: Florida on this game. Man, the money completely disagreeing with
- 30:21Speaker 2: it though Florida minus one twenty one here as a
- 30:25Speaker 2: road favorite, eighty seven percent of tickets on them, seventy
- 30:28Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash on Seattle though the money
- 30:30Speaker 2: coming out in Seattle, I don't agree with that one.
- 30:34Speaker 1: And we got NBA.
- 30:38Speaker 2: We have like six or seven NBA games here. ABC
- 30:41Speaker 2: in the afternoon has Minnesota and Oklahoma City, which is
- 30:45Speaker 2: I think the best game of the day probably.
- 30:48Speaker 1: I don't think there's really a.
- 30:49Speaker 2: Way to disagree with that. Minnesota just beat Golden State.
- 30:54Speaker 2: Now they're going to Oklahoma City. You know, fine, win
- 30:58Speaker 2: over Golden State, but they're an injured team. So Minnesota
- 31:01Speaker 2: bounced back nicely after.
- 31:03Speaker 1: Very very bad loss to the Clippers.
- 31:08Speaker 2: Golden State made that game a little bit closer towards
- 31:10Speaker 2: the end though.
- 31:11Speaker 1: Oklahoma City's on a huge run.
- 31:13Speaker 2: They've won seven games in a row, but their last
- 31:17Speaker 2: couple of games are pretty big. They beat Denver, they
- 31:19Speaker 2: beat the Celtics in what people were talking about maybe
- 31:23Speaker 2: being a NBA Finals preview there. Now they've had a
- 31:27Speaker 2: couple of days off, but you know, just sitting at
- 31:31Speaker 2: home that might hurt their momentum a little bit. So
- 31:33Speaker 2: I would actually lean to the t Wolves in this
- 31:35Speaker 2: game plus the points, although I know it's really difficult
- 31:37Speaker 2: to fade the Thunder like they have a tendency to
- 31:41Speaker 2: win by margin at home, but Thunder and minus nine
- 31:45Speaker 2: here gets a good t Wolves team. Fifty three percent
- 31:48Speaker 2: of the tickets are on the Thunder, fifty four percent
- 31:50Speaker 2: of the cash on Minnesota. So I would agree with
- 31:53Speaker 2: that market read with taking the points in Minnesota.
- 31:57Speaker 1: Dallas at Cleveland on NBA TV at three thirds. Of course,
- 32:01Speaker 1: I'm going to root against Cleveland, but you know, I
- 32:03Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna lose to Dallas.
- 32:05Speaker 2: But Dallas did just lose to Cleveland by thirty three
- 32:08Speaker 2: at home. So this is one of those road revenge
- 32:12Speaker 2: zigzag spots here, if you will, where Dallas got destroyed
- 32:16Speaker 2: so bad at home, you gotta think that maybe Cleveland
- 32:18Speaker 2: just won't put in as much of an effort this time.
- 32:21Speaker 1: Thinking it'll be easy.
- 32:22Speaker 2: Oh, if we crushed them on the road, of course,
- 32:24Speaker 2: it'll be really easy to beat.
- 32:25Speaker 1: Them at home.
- 32:25Speaker 2: Right, So Cleveland had overlooked them this time. Dallas will
- 32:29Speaker 2: at least have the adjustments.
- 32:30Speaker 1: To make here. They're starting a road trip.
- 32:32Speaker 2: I think you at least pretty much know you'll get
- 32:34Speaker 2: some focus out of Dallas here and probably some fight
- 32:38Speaker 2: out of them after what happened in the previous game.
- 32:41Speaker 2: They're not well rested, though. That's kind of the problem here.
- 32:45Speaker 2: They're playing a third game in four days, fourth and sixth,
- 32:48Speaker 2: fifth and eight, sixth game in ten days. It's seventh
- 32:51Speaker 2: game in eleven days, all in different cities. That is
- 32:54Speaker 2: not easy to do. So that worries me about Dallas Cleveland.
- 32:58Speaker 2: Like I said, they just killed Dallas. They don't really
- 33:01Speaker 2: have that much of a look ahead. They got Milwaukee next,
- 33:03Speaker 2: which it's it's a bigger game than Dallas though, So
- 33:06Speaker 2: I'll give you that the money's coming in on Cleveland,
- 33:10Speaker 2: but I would I would lean towards Dallas plus the
- 33:12Speaker 2: points here. Cleveland's minus sixteen and a half fifty one
- 33:16Speaker 2: percent of the tickets on Dallas, though it's sixty six
- 33:18Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Cleveland. I don't agree with that.
- 33:21Speaker 2: I would, Yeah, I would lean towards towards Dallas plus
- 33:26Speaker 2: the points there slightly. Detroit at Toronto kind of an
- 33:31Speaker 2: interesting game. We talk about how Toronto hasn't been very
- 33:33Speaker 2: good at home this year, which is weird because you know,
- 33:36Speaker 2: teams have to go through customs and go up to Canada.
- 33:39Speaker 2: You'd think Toronto would have a better home court advantage
- 33:42Speaker 2: than they do. Detroit is on a three game win streak.
- 33:46Speaker 2: They just beat Memphis, who cares starting a road trip
- 33:49Speaker 2: with some momentum. They don't have bigger games on deck.
- 33:52Speaker 2: They play Washington, so Detroit probably will actually.
- 33:56Speaker 1: Show up for this game.
- 33:57Speaker 2: Toronto is staying at home after Phoenix at home, which
- 34:01Speaker 2: was a decent win over Phoenix. They'll give you an
- 34:03Speaker 2: effort to against Detroit. I mean, you're not gonna overlook Detroit,
- 34:06Speaker 2: so I think you'll get an effort out of both
- 34:09Speaker 2: teams here. The Pistons are down to a three and
- 34:11Speaker 2: a half point favorite.
- 34:13Speaker 1: Does look very very easy to lay the points with
- 34:15Speaker 1: Detroit here. I will say that.
- 34:18Speaker 2: Seventy four percent of the tickets are on on the Pistons,
- 34:22Speaker 2: seventy two percent of the cash, so less of the
- 34:24Speaker 2: money on them. So they are a public road favorite there,
- 34:27Speaker 2: which you know, I don't love a side like that,
- 34:29Speaker 2: So I would probably look to fade Detroit.
- 34:31Speaker 1: In that one, but I don't have a strong opinion
- 34:33Speaker 1: on it at all.
- 34:34Speaker 2: Indiana at Milwaukee this was actually, this was the game
- 34:39Speaker 2: that I would be the probably the closest to giving
- 34:41Speaker 2: a play on here.
- 34:43Speaker 1: I like Milwaukee in this game. Indiana just played the Knicks.
- 34:46Speaker 2: I know Indiana's lost a ton of games in a row,
- 34:49Speaker 2: so but you have to gauge, like, is Indiana going
- 34:52Speaker 2: to give.
- 34:52Speaker 1: You effort in this game? Or are they not? You
- 34:54Speaker 1: know what I mean?
- 34:54Speaker 2: Because I know it's embarrassing to lose this many games
- 34:57Speaker 2: in a row. So you would kind of think, well,
- 34:59Speaker 2: they're gonna give you an effort here, But maybe they
- 35:02Speaker 2: won't because they did put it in an effort in
- 35:04Speaker 2: their last game, and they fell short against the Knicks.
- 35:07Speaker 1: They lost by nine.
- 35:08Speaker 2: That was a pretty close game down the stretch, man,
- 35:10Speaker 2: they were within like four points I think with a
- 35:13Speaker 2: couple of minutes left in that game. So Indiana played
- 35:15Speaker 2: the Knicks pretty close. And now that's what they're coming
- 35:18Speaker 2: off of. And even worse, they have the Knicks again
- 35:21Speaker 2: in revenge next. So they were in a New York
- 35:24Speaker 2: sandwich here, a Knick sandwich. They're in a CATS's Deli
- 35:28Speaker 2: sandwich here. Man, they got to play the Bucks here.
- 35:32Speaker 2: They did lose to the Bucks on the road by
- 35:34Speaker 2: six the last time. But still I think for Indiana
- 35:38Speaker 2: it's a very difficult spot.
- 35:40Speaker 1: For Milwaukee.
- 35:41Speaker 2: They just got blasted yesterday by Atlanta. Of course, the
- 35:44Speaker 2: problem is they're returning over from a road triple that
- 35:47Speaker 2: was a quick road trip Thursday Saturday. Still a road
- 35:51Speaker 2: trip where you know, sometimes I still don't love those
- 35:54Speaker 2: teams returning over from road trips.
- 35:55Speaker 1: I also don't love the Milwaukee.
- 35:56Speaker 2: Plays Cleveland next in a TV game, so that might
- 35:59Speaker 2: be a game that will draw up more of their
- 36:01Speaker 2: focus here. But because they got blown out by Atlanta
- 36:05Speaker 2: and that was coming off.
- 36:06Speaker 1: A pretty decent performance.
- 36:07Speaker 2: Against Miami the game before that, I think you will
- 36:10Speaker 2: get a bounce back from Milwaukee after that ugly, ugly
- 36:13Speaker 2: loss at Atlanta, Indiana. In a tough spot, Like I
- 36:16Speaker 2: said the Nick Sandwich, I would lay it with the
- 36:19Speaker 2: Bucks here. The Bucks, by the way, Yannis didn't play yesterday,
- 36:23Speaker 2: and based on the fact they're seven and a half,
- 36:26Speaker 2: it's hard to gauge if that means. I don't know
- 36:28Speaker 2: if that means he's gonna play today or not. So
- 36:31Speaker 2: that's another hesitation with wanting to actually put money on
- 36:33Speaker 2: this game. So you don't know who's gonna play yet.
- 36:35Speaker 2: This is in the afternoon, Like I don't. I honestly
- 36:39Speaker 2: I don't know, like what number the Bucks should be
- 36:41Speaker 2: favored by with or without Yannis right now, man against
- 36:44Speaker 2: a Pacers team that's very injured, I don't know. Ninety
- 36:48Speaker 2: of the tickets, seventy nine percent of the casual on
- 36:49Speaker 2: the Bucks.
- 36:50Speaker 1: So the money is saying look towards the pace, look
- 36:53Speaker 1: towards the Pacers here.
- 36:54Speaker 2: I don't agree with that, though generally I would lay
- 36:56Speaker 2: it with the Bucks here. I want to see if
- 36:59Speaker 2: Yannis his interor oft He did not play against the Hawks,
- 37:02Speaker 2: so if he is back, even though the Bucks played yesterday,
- 37:05Speaker 2: And that's kind of the other hesitation is that they're
- 37:08Speaker 2: traveling with no rest here. But Jannis, if he's playing
- 37:13Speaker 2: in this game. He didn't play yesterday, so he will
- 37:15Speaker 2: at least be fresh if he plays.
- 37:17Speaker 1: In this game.
- 37:18Speaker 2: All right, Portland at Philadelphia. Portland just beat Utah in
- 37:24Speaker 2: their last game. Now they're starting a road trip. But
- 37:27Speaker 2: a lot of times you will be focused to start
- 37:28Speaker 2: a road trip. They're decently rested. That Utah game is
- 37:32Speaker 2: the only game they played since Tuesday, and it was at.
- 37:36Speaker 1: Home, so a lot of times you will carry that
- 37:38Speaker 1: momentum out on the road with you. Portland is laying
- 37:42Speaker 1: a ridiculous price, though.
- 37:43Speaker 2: I will tell you that even though they're at Philadelphia,
- 37:46Speaker 2: because Philadelphia they're massively injured right now, as we know,
- 37:49Speaker 2: they don't have anybody in their starting lineup right now, injuries, suspensions, everything.
- 37:55Speaker 2: Philadelphia just did not do that well against Brooklyn yesterday.
- 37:59Speaker 2: They pretty much I really got by That game was
- 38:01Speaker 2: actually quite close, so Brooklyn took them pretty much to
- 38:05Speaker 2: the limit Philly one by seven.
- 38:07Speaker 1: That was yesterday.
- 38:08Speaker 2: But at least for them, they're staying at home, which
- 38:12Speaker 2: you know, could kind.
- 38:13Speaker 1: Of mitigate that a little bit.
- 38:15Speaker 2: There's no way that I would lay the points of
- 38:17Speaker 2: the Trailblazers.
- 38:18Speaker 1: They're laying eight and a half on the road. Portland's okay, but.
- 38:22Speaker 2: Like, should they really be laying eight and a half
- 38:24Speaker 2: on the road against anybody besides like maybe the Wizards or.
- 38:28Speaker 1: Something like that.
- 38:29Speaker 2: I don't know, man, it seems like kind of a
- 38:31Speaker 2: ridiculous price. Sixty six percent of tickets only fifty three
- 38:35Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the Blazers. I think I
- 38:38Speaker 2: would agree with that market assessment and lean towards taking
- 38:40Speaker 2: the points of the Sixers.
- 38:42Speaker 1: I just think it's getting a little bit too crazy.
- 38:45Speaker 2: A lot of times the backups will come in and
- 38:46Speaker 2: give you an effort, especially with the Sixers barely escaping
- 38:50Speaker 2: in their game yesterday. NBC at Peacock has Golden State
- 38:54Speaker 2: and New York in the night slate here Golden State,
- 39:00Speaker 2: I don't know, man, they might be starting to pack
- 39:01Speaker 2: it in for the season.
- 39:02Speaker 1: Because Curry.
- 39:04Speaker 2: I don't know if Curry's going to even come back
- 39:06Speaker 2: this season at this point. Man, I don't know if
- 39:08Speaker 2: there's a reason to bring him back. Butler is of
- 39:10Speaker 2: course not playing for the rest of the season.
- 39:13Speaker 1: Very injured.
- 39:13Speaker 2: Golden State team here, they did just have a game
- 39:16Speaker 2: where they they did lose my margin to Minnesota at home,
- 39:21Speaker 2: So maybe it'll be good for them to just try
- 39:22Speaker 2: to break this losing streak they're on by leaving home
- 39:25Speaker 2: going out on the road, you know, you'll probably, I guess,
- 39:29Speaker 2: get an effort out of them because it's a TV
- 39:31Speaker 2: game against one of the top teams.
- 39:32Speaker 1: In the East, the Knicks.
- 39:35Speaker 2: The Knicks are returning home from a road trip, so
- 39:37Speaker 2: that's not a good spot. Obviously, they've been away from
- 39:39Speaker 2: more than a week. They had to go to the
- 39:41Speaker 2: Pacific host and then yeah, they didn't have a great
- 39:44Speaker 2: game against Indiana to finish the road trip. But you know,
- 39:47Speaker 2: I always talk about this, when a team returns home
- 39:49Speaker 2: from a road trip, a lot of times they're not
- 39:51Speaker 2: going to be focused. They have to get back to
- 39:55Speaker 2: home life. I wish the Knicks had a bigger game
- 39:56Speaker 2: up next than playing Indiana again. So they're in in Indiana
- 40:00Speaker 2: sandwich of course, because I told you the Pacers are
- 40:02Speaker 2: in a Knick sandwich, so makes sense they're both they're
- 40:05Speaker 2: in sandwiches with each other. But yeah, I think the
- 40:11Speaker 2: Knicks could be in a distracted spot here returning home,
- 40:14Speaker 2: having to get back to home life.
- 40:15Speaker 1: Whatever. I would lean to taking the points with Golden State.
- 40:18Speaker 2: The Knicks are a fourteen point favorite, and it is
- 40:21Speaker 2: a pretty low total for an NBA game at two nineteen,
- 40:24Speaker 2: although it's gone up a little bit, but that means
- 40:27Speaker 2: it might be a little bit easier for the underdog
- 40:28Speaker 2: to cover a number like that. Here seventy six percent
- 40:31Speaker 2: of tickets, ninety four percent of the cash on the Knicks.
- 40:34Speaker 1: I don't agree with that.
- 40:35Speaker 2: I would take the points of the Warriors if I
- 40:37Speaker 2: was gonna play that one. And then Utah is that
- 40:39Speaker 2: Sacramento in the last game. This is a horrible game.
- 40:44Speaker 2: We don't even know what we're gonna get for effort
- 40:46Speaker 2: out of these teams. Although the Jazz looked like they
- 40:49Speaker 2: did put in some effort at Portland in their last game.
- 40:52Speaker 1: They lost by ten, that's not horrible.
- 40:55Speaker 2: Now they're traveling down to Sacramento here possibly looking for
- 40:58Speaker 2: a windle, though they do a minnesot on deck. Sacramento
- 41:01Speaker 2: is actually putting an effort recently too, so they've kind
- 41:05Speaker 2: of turned a corner. They've won three of their last
- 41:07Speaker 2: four games. They won last night though, at the Clippers,
- 41:11Speaker 2: and now they're returning on from that. So they pulled
- 41:12Speaker 2: off kind of a ridiculous upset at the Clippers. They
- 41:16Speaker 2: were thirteen and a half point underdogs, So I would
- 41:20Speaker 2: not want anything to do with the Kings here, man.
- 41:21Speaker 2: And they do have san Antonio on deck, which is
- 41:24Speaker 2: gonna be kind of a look ahead, so they're actually
- 41:26Speaker 2: in a sandwich here.
- 41:28Speaker 1: So I like the Jazz in this game.
- 41:30Speaker 2: I don't know why the money's coming in on the Kings, dude,
- 41:33Speaker 2: this late season NBA. This is why I'm just taking
- 41:35Speaker 2: the day off from having any plays like this.
- 41:38Speaker 1: Late season NBA.
- 41:39Speaker 2: It's really difficult to handicap motivation in some of these games.
- 41:42Speaker 2: But doing my usual situational stuff, I don't understand why
- 41:47Speaker 2: the money's coming in on the Kings.
- 41:48Speaker 1: They're up to a three point favorite.
- 41:50Speaker 2: Fifty eight percent of tickets are on the Jazz, eighty
- 41:52Speaker 2: eight percent of the cash on the Kings.
- 41:54Speaker 1: Both teams are very injured. Both teams, you know.
- 41:58Speaker 2: Might not show up in any particular game. But you know, again,
- 42:01Speaker 2: the Kings are coming out of a double digit road
- 42:03Speaker 2: up set, they're on a back to back.
- 42:07Speaker 1: And they have the Spurs next.
- 42:09Speaker 2: Why like, why are they laying points like It's just it's.
- 42:12Speaker 1: Kind of crazy. I know they're at home, but I.
- 42:14Speaker 2: Don't know, man, it seems just kind of insane. And
- 42:18Speaker 2: you know, I know the Jazz have a lot of injuries,
- 42:20Speaker 2: both teams do. Like I said, so I don't even
- 42:22Speaker 2: know who's playing in this game, to be honest, Yeah,
- 42:26Speaker 2: I mean this is a very injured Jazz team for sure.
- 42:30Speaker 2: Ace Bailey is out now with a concussion. We already
- 42:33Speaker 2: knew Marketing was out. You know they lost well, who
- 42:38Speaker 2: was their other player, the other white guy they have.
- 42:40Speaker 2: I always get the mixed up. He's been out for
- 42:42Speaker 2: the season as well. Of course, for Sacramento, we know
- 42:45Speaker 2: they're without Levigne and the bonus for the rest of
- 42:47Speaker 2: the year. A monk who was one of their best
- 42:50Speaker 2: players remaining is a game time decision for them. It's
- 42:54Speaker 2: all dude, we don't even know who's playing in this game.
- 42:57Speaker 2: But again, give it the situation. I think it is
- 43:01Speaker 2: one of the stronger situations on the NBA board to
- 43:04Speaker 2: fade the Kings here and look towards the Jazz.
- 43:07Speaker 1: So those are my thoughts on all that.
- 43:08Speaker 2: Don't have any plays here, but that's it, man, Let's
- 43:13Speaker 2: enjoy the rest of the College of Basketball here at
- 43:15Speaker 2: Selection Sunday.
- 43:18Speaker 1: I'll probably be back like in a.
- 43:19Speaker 2: Little while, and I'll do my final bracketology here while
- 43:23Speaker 2: the Atlantic excuse. I guess the IVY League is first,
- 43:26Speaker 2: but that's probably not until noon, so maybe I'll be
- 43:29Speaker 2: able to get the bracketology done before that even happens.
- 43:31Speaker 1: Probably i'll do a final episode of that.
- 43:34Speaker 2: Then I will just release my final bracketology on Twitter
- 43:39Speaker 2: later in the day, like as the Big Ten. Big
- 43:41Speaker 2: Ten will be the last game, so as that game
- 43:44Speaker 2: is finishing. But that game probably isn't going to affect
- 43:46Speaker 2: much to me, honest, unless Michigan actually loses, and then
- 43:50Speaker 2: you have to kind of figure out do They probably
- 43:52Speaker 2: still remain a one seed though, so I don't think
- 43:55Speaker 2: it's really gonna affect much.
- 43:58Speaker 1: Purdue.
- 43:59Speaker 2: If Purdue wins, they do probably move up a seed
- 44:01Speaker 2: line though, because I still have them on the three.
- 44:04Speaker 2: I think if they win they actually get up to
- 44:06Speaker 2: a two seed, believe it or not. So actually, I
- 44:09Speaker 2: don't know. I'll have to look at what I have,
- 44:10Speaker 2: but I think, yeah, they would probably swap with Michigan
- 44:13Speaker 2: State if that happened.
- 44:16Speaker 1: But we'll see. I'll be back.
- 44:18Speaker 2: I'll congratulate all the teams that got auto bids yesterday,
- 44:22Speaker 2: and then.
- 44:24Speaker 1: I think that's it.
- 44:25Speaker 2: I'm gonna release my Oscar picks for take because it's
- 44:28Speaker 2: Selectiones Sunday, but it's also Oscar Sunday, which I hate it.
- 44:32Speaker 1: I hate the whole holiday thing.
- 44:35Speaker 2: You know, Conan O'Brien associate, at least, that's probably not
- 44:38Speaker 2: the worst choice in a host.
- 44:40Speaker 1: I still think he is kind of funny, but.
- 44:44Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I mean he was the better, the
- 44:47Speaker 2: better of a bunch of those late night hosts that
- 44:48Speaker 2: were out there for a while, so I thought he.
- 44:51Speaker 1: Was at least as far as how funny he actually was.
- 44:54Speaker 2: And he wrote for The Simpsons back when The Simpsons
- 44:57Speaker 2: was actually really funny. I'm just rambling now, I don't know,
- 45:01Speaker 2: but yeah, it's kind of stupid that Oscar Sunday's on
- 45:03Speaker 2: Selection Sunday. Oscar's all lame, but dude, I just like
- 45:06Speaker 2: trying to predict things.
- 45:07Speaker 1: That's my thing.
- 45:08Speaker 2: I try to predict whatever and get things right. That's
- 45:11Speaker 2: why I like sports betting and whatever. That's gonna do
- 45:14Speaker 2: it for now, Learn a tone on Twitter. Learn it
- 45:16Speaker 2: tone on Instagram. Like subscribe, you know, give me good
- 45:20Speaker 2: comments here. Subscribe here so you get the notifications when
- 45:22Speaker 2: I go live, which is gonna be multiple times during
- 45:26Speaker 2: bracket season. Here, we're gonna have a couple of I'm
- 45:29Speaker 2: gonna do a reaction show tonight, probably after the bracket selection.
- 45:32Speaker 2: I'll give my initial thoughts on the bracket. Then I'm
- 45:36Speaker 2: gonna do my actual bracket filling out of the bracket.
- 45:40Speaker 1: I did it Wednesday night last year.
- 45:42Speaker 2: That's probably what I'll do because we you know, kind
- 45:44Speaker 2: of wait and see who wins the play in games
- 45:46Speaker 2: or whatever. So I'll probably wait until then I crunch
- 45:49Speaker 2: the numbers to try to do the game theory on it.
- 45:53Speaker 2: So we'll wait and then I'll probably do that then
- 45:55Speaker 2: and then we'll have I'll do a women's bracket as well,
- 46:00Speaker 2: but that one I just don't even really game theory
- 46:02Speaker 2: that one. The women's is more just use the numbers,
- 46:06Speaker 2: pick the better teams and usually it works out, so
- 46:09Speaker 2: I don't spend as much time on the women's racket,
- 46:12Speaker 2: but I will do a special for that one too.
- 46:15Speaker 2: Women they usually do a selection Monday, but they're actually
- 46:18Speaker 2: their bracket is being selected tonight as well, after the
- 46:22Speaker 2: men's one, so they're they're trying to steal selections Sunday. Now, man,
- 46:26Speaker 2: I don't know, even though I think they're usually like
- 46:28Speaker 2: one day later than the men's tournament, and I think
- 46:30Speaker 2: their tournament schedule is still that way, so I don't know.
- 46:33Speaker 2: I don't watch the women's tournament, so I have no
- 46:35Speaker 2: idea that's gonna do it.
- 46:38Speaker 1: Man.
- 46:38Speaker 2: Anyway, Yeah, so but yeah, subscribe here and you'll get
- 46:42Speaker 2: all those notifications. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, give me
- 46:46Speaker 2: good reviews over there. Covered in you because my yuke
- 46:48Speaker 2: channel on YouTube. You can check that out as well.
- 46:51Speaker 2: Patreon dot com, slash and learn to toad for some
- 46:53Speaker 2: bonus stuff. I should think about different ways to give
- 46:55Speaker 2: the Patreons more content. I gotta figure it out. Maybe
- 46:59Speaker 2: some of these, maybe my bracket streams and stuff should
- 47:01Speaker 2: be behind the paywall, but I'm trying to build this channel, man,
- 47:05Speaker 2: so like just put everything out for free right now,
- 47:07Speaker 2: give out all the content and just hope that I can.
- 47:09Speaker 1: Get more subscribers here.
- 47:11Speaker 2: You know, come on, man, I probably have the most,
- 47:15Speaker 2: like the sheer volume of betting content.
- 47:17Speaker 1: I might have the most. You know.
- 47:19Speaker 2: Well, it's it's between me and probably the Sauce Network guy,
- 47:25Speaker 2: Kyle Kyle Kerms. That guy's awesome, dude. I love his content.
- 47:29Speaker 2: He's really good. Like he has he probably has the most,
- 47:34Speaker 2: to be honest, so you can go check him out.
- 47:36Speaker 1: He's more like analytical.
- 47:38Speaker 2: He has all the numbers, a lot of information on
- 47:41Speaker 2: that show that can help you though. And yeah, and
- 47:46Speaker 2: I do more like situational stuff, so you know, combination
- 47:51Speaker 2: of all of that is definitely a healthful I guess.
- 47:54Speaker 1: I'm rambling way too much through my plugs here. Man.
- 47:56Speaker 2: Loser Castle be back on Tuesday as well. That's gonna
- 47:59Speaker 2: do it.
- 47:59Speaker 1: I'll better act with.
- 48:00Speaker 2: A quick bracketology update show in probably about twenty or
- 48:04Speaker 2: thirty minutes. I would say, I'm gonna try to do
- 48:05Speaker 2: it before the Ivy League kicks off, but it's only
- 48:08Speaker 2: ten am, so we'll get it done.
- 48:10Speaker 1: Peace for now, guys,