Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Kook's Weekly - September 8

Transcript

Kook's Weekly - September 8 · AST SpaceMobile Podcast

0:06
This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
0:10
Where we just basically come your phone and be seamless,
0:14
regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to
0:16
know that it's connected by server.
0:21
Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
0:29
Is this, is this better? OK, sorry about that.
0:33
I'm going to just buy a microphone next week.
0:37
So like my Spaces, the stock price last year was full of
0:42
chaos, reverb, echo and like playing failures of technology,
0:47
which is really kind of bizarre, although it's some level when
0:52
you've lived the AST space mobile investment, you kind of
0:57
realize this weird phenomenon there.
1:01
People will look out into the future and you know, I won't say
1:07
dream a dream, but sort of really understand the thesis and
1:11
invest behind it. But then as you come up to these
1:14
near term events, it's unbelievable how this biopia is
1:20
that saying just this panic, always panic.
1:24
It's the feeling of there must be some black box event that's
1:28
hitting, whereas people are happy to look out in 2026.
1:33
It's like, Oh my God, will FM 1 ship on August 31st or September
1:39
1st? As if that really mattered.
1:40
And so lastly, this sort of spiraling because you have a lot
1:46
of retail in there. You have institutions that I
1:50
still don't really think understand the thesis.
1:52
A lot of these guys may at this point know about AST space
1:56
bubble, but their conviction in it I think is pretty flimsy and
2:02
there's so much scar tissue with other story stocks about failed
2:07
to deliver effectively that I want to say it's understandable.
2:12
But it's too expected. People worry themselves into a
2:17
tizzy and then that allows algos shorts paper handed people it
2:24
really fall over themselves, which is unfortunate because I
2:29
think as Ann Pan and Ted Todd would say, and there are a lot
2:32
of other memes where it's really kind of about how to fumble the
2:36
football right when you're about to break the plane into the end
2:39
zone. But that's just not the way of
2:41
the world. It is.
2:43
It's hard to win. And I found that out in high
2:47
school when you know, like, say one day I realized, like,
2:51
sometimes you really have a mental block on winning.
2:53
It's it's hard to win. It seems kind of odd.
2:56
And there's a real mental transition you make when you
2:58
realize, oh, winning's actually the easiest thing when all is
3:03
said and done, because if you win, you just don't have to talk
3:05
about it. It's like hell on over.
3:09
Whereas if you get second plus or you get third plus, you got
3:11
to explain might and win. You got to pretend like you're
3:14
so pissed off and that you try it next time, but you just don't
3:18
have to say much if you win. And I think a lot of investors
3:21
have a hard time, honestly, just winning.
3:24
It's hard. And there's a lot of reasons.
3:25
You know, you look around people, you know, do you know a
3:28
lot of people that have been successful at investing in real
3:32
money? I don't, you know, people who
3:37
made a lot of money on fees. All right, that'll definitely
3:41
know. But it's interesting when when I
3:43
look at the people that I've known for quite a while, how
3:45
they've evolved. One of my friends I worked with
3:50
was, was a good trader for sure, ran a ran a hedge fund and and
3:56
did well. But we're getting knocked out by
3:58
these exact type of periods in the market where, I mean, you
4:02
have some interest rate dislocation right in cover the
4:05
messy parts of August and September when, when growth
4:08
stocks, especially long duration stocks, which is what ASTS is,
4:12
we're really getting knocked around.
4:13
But look at, you know, proxy for this risk class is really the
4:17
King Tut portfolio of the AST space mobiles.
4:21
The Aurora is the things like that that are all the
4:25
essentially the secular winners in each of their categories.
4:27
But but for sure the MPV of the companies is back ended.
4:33
They're they're all based on the future.
4:35
And those things seem to be rocked in these periods of time.
4:38
And that's what we're really seeing with AST space mobile And
4:40
frankly, the other things that we know.
4:43
I following tech portfolio also got spanked.
4:48
Doesn't mean they're wrong. And so there was another guy on
4:50
Twitter, I think it was Antonio Lenaris or however you say his
4:54
name and he was kind of waving the white flag on dual.
4:57
He goes well, stocks here today. I must be wrong.
5:01
I don't know he's wrong or or right.
5:03
He's dual and go, I understand the bear case.
5:05
I understand where the limits to growth would be.
5:07
I don't own it. But what I do know is that just
5:10
because the stock is down 50%, that is really no bearing as to
5:13
whether or not you're right over a five year horizon.
5:16
So it's always just a hard part is to keep focused, but EST is
5:20
mobile. I'll come up with some PP
5:22
statement to exploding this type of phenomenon.
5:26
But it's almost where when you finally acquire the target in
5:30
the sites, it's it's just scares, it just scares people.
5:36
And so we literally are looking at FM one pictures of it right
5:41
in front of you and yet people are terrified of it because of
5:47
when it may or may not leave a facility in Midland based on
5:51
things that are outside of our control, as if that has end
5:53
bearing whatsoever on feed your value.
5:54
But meanwhile, with AT&T literally tweeting us counting
5:59
down with you right to my right, I have AT&T gift pack next to me
6:05
with the Dallas. We have a connection, a waffle
6:09
maker, a cool power bank and some other neat stuff that's
6:16
seems odd timing. And so you have AT&T literally
6:23
telling us that this is about to happen, sending us merch.
6:26
Is it a true. I mean, this isn't rocket
6:28
science they're doing here. I play into it totally because I
6:31
like them. AT&T is very important to the by
6:34
this company and so they want to find you know what in their mind
6:38
are influencers, which is like trying to vomit that that is how
6:42
I'm perceived as influencer. But yeah be it what it may I
6:48
Bentley I'm a stock influencer now which is not what I had of
6:51
my looking plan over the years. But they're reaching out to
6:55
people like us to to get buzz to show an organic campaign to
7:02
bring awareness to space mobile, to bring awareness to AT&T so
7:05
that people start to go what's up with AT and TA very unlikely
7:09
recipient of never mind retail, but just some human being
7:14
enthusiasm. For whatever reason, people
7:16
don't like the recommend L. But I remember a couple years
7:18
ago, I was meet with a, an executive team about energy and
7:22
this CEO made the point he's like, well, when we think about
7:27
the future of oil, ask your teenage of scenario of I'll take
7:33
away your car or I'll take away your phone.
7:37
You got to pick one. And and he was saying that most
7:39
teenagers would say, take my car away.
7:41
And I thought that that was crazy.
7:42
I'm a car guy. But you know, reality, that's
7:45
probably what I would do too. Most valuable thing you have,
7:50
and I don't know where I'm going with that, but it's very
7:53
important. The ET and T is just not really
7:56
what, what kind of mind is a cool company, but they're doing
7:59
this cool stuff with space mobile.
8:02
They're trying to generate buzz and play into enthusiasts that
8:05
we have for this company is smart because of enthusiasm is
8:09
real and it's working. And so everyone should you know
8:18
really play into that show them we're excited switch from
8:21
T-Mobile for the love of God like if you own ASC space mobile
8:27
stock because people can't comment for for every reason.
8:31
If you own AC Space Mobile stock and you're a T-Mobile
8:35
subscriber, you had a get in the program here and churn like an
8:41
MF or get yourself over day AT&T.
8:45
But they're counting down. They're generating buzz.
8:47
They know more than anyone when you want to talk about someone
8:50
who is an insider outside of the ASD Space Mobile, AP and T would
8:55
be an insider. They control the lease
8:58
spectrums. They're lobbying for the company
9:01
with the FCC. They're coordinating on the
9:03
launch of intermittent services and full services.
9:07
They more likely than not every single level of detail.
9:11
So when you start sending us swag, that's the time I think
9:16
you just want to shut up and start your game plan.
9:19
Meanwhile, shorts idiotically ramp up their exposures right
9:25
into that into the NPAN man records very methodically.
9:31
We had the real time short interest shoot up from 4141
9:34
point 7 million shares from 33 million shares at the beginning
9:38
of August. So the shorts they often do
9:42
covered all their shorts at 60 and now totally reloaded their
9:46
shorts in the low 40s. And it's even more dramatic than
9:50
that because along the way, as the stock price was down, the
9:54
convertible bond hedgers would have covered they're shorts,
9:57
they would be on a lower delta, which means lower stocks.
10:01
So that increase of eight, 9 million shares is actually net
10:07
more dramatic in terms of people that are directionally shorting
10:10
it. And you kind of know what these
10:12
guys are thinking and they're they think they're so smart.
10:15
And I just sometimes I'll just pretend like I'm an idiot and a
10:21
paper hand just to just kind of play to it a little bit like, Oh
10:25
my God, I'm so scared sucks 43. I don't know how many I I just
10:29
don't know how many get on with it.
10:30
And oh, management must have lost credibility.
10:32
Oh my God. And it's like you guys get the F
10:34
out of here know exactly what I'm doing.
10:37
They're they're looking at these press releases.
10:41
I mean, what is is mean, you know, they're doing the Bill
10:46
Clinton deposition of what's the meaning of is ready in August
10:50
and we'll get that in a second. But the fun part is we have a
10:55
long history of what Katzie kind of did in a cartoon of just
10:59
putting fresh wood on the fire. We have some brand new dried
11:05
Birch bark laden wood that we just put on the fire of ASTS
11:10
Peace Mobile at $4243 that is ready to have some boys out
11:15
fluid poured all over it and let these guys up because what we
11:22
got in the past two weeks is the flurry of very meaningful FCC
11:29
filings, approvals, notices and so very importantly on Friday,
11:35
how about camping, which is kind of as an aside, I was spent the
11:39
weekend with the Marine Corps and when you're kind of out with
11:43
these guys in the other mid 20s, I mean it's first of all, it's
11:46
just like, oh God, all these guys are shredded.
11:48
I got to up my game, but we're we're literally playing around
11:52
in these ASGSI think is what they're called these landing
11:56
vehicles. And you see these guys all kind
11:59
of wrapped in this look like a freaking miserable thing to be
12:04
in. You mean throwing off a boat in
12:06
this boat car land that driven only by cameras being shot at
12:11
probably doesn't have air conditioning.
12:13
I mean, what these guys do in service for our country is
12:15
really unbelievable. But you look at just how
12:18
integrated it all is now and the importance of the comms and this
12:23
is which is going to be so exciting about the opportunity
12:26
for defense with AST Space Mobile.
12:28
But I missed that filing as I was spending it my weekend with
12:33
the Marine Corps. It is that we got the service
12:37
links accepted. So if you think about the
12:41
Trident of regulatory approvals, you have the backhaul which is
12:46
QV band and that's for the tracking entry in control.
12:51
I think that's what TTTT&C stands for.
12:55
No matter really basically how do you talk to the bird and get
12:58
data off the bird back to the ground.
13:01
And then you have the FCC process for the ground stations.
13:05
And so those are just think the traditional really big satellite
13:08
dishes sitting on Earth that are communicating with the
13:13
satellites. And then you have the SCS
13:16
supplemental coverage from space service lengths, which are the
13:20
approvals that allow your phone to connect to the satellite.
13:24
So the SP official accepted the SECSCS filing that was made by
13:31
Trum Roll ASD based mobile, no surprise there.
13:33
AT&T no surprise there. Firstnet should be no surprise
13:37
there and Verizon, but I thought Verizon to abandon this company
13:43
a few times before going to the expert Milton's but Vogon, but
13:49
at least the customer despite having said they have a
13:53
conference to face mobile and having a police agreement.
13:56
So wherever the funds through this information once again
13:59
disproven, but comments for this are due October 6th, 2025 and
14:06
then the final back and forth comments are due October 23rd.
14:10
So this is comment at us and this is for all 248 satellites
14:17
are approved for review. It locks in the satellite, the
14:20
low band satellite, I'm sorry, low band spectrum from AT&T and
14:24
Verizon verse net and they're requesting the waivers.
14:28
So I think, you know, saw some back and forth where some true
14:31
clowns were challenging cab Gen. unlike oh, there can't get
14:34
waivers. And Captain Chen pointed out in
14:37
the SES legislation that was passed specifically about the
14:43
process for waivers. This was contemplated the
14:47
integration with public safety. So that's great.
14:49
And this is the big kahuna of the regulatory process.
14:55
So it's going to be very exciting.
14:56
It's going to be it's going to be lit.
14:59
And so just yourself for some drama.
15:01
There's a certainly going to be some SpaceX law fair and things
15:06
like that. But you can just look back to
15:08
what happened in the past months when we our QV band comments
15:13
have been in the FCC has shut down SpaceX, you know, literally
15:18
just saying their objections are moot.
15:22
So I have the Kevin Chen tweet linked out as well.
15:27
If you just want to see the timeline of really the Fudsters
15:30
saying, you know, this stuff wouldn't wouldn't happen, didn't
15:34
happen. And then really just showing
15:36
what happened where the FCC is accepting filings.
15:40
So the acceptance of a filing means that it's considered a
15:42
full thorough application that could be accepted and now
15:47
they're just doing the public comment process.
15:51
We also got our gateway feeder links approved.
15:54
So that's the next link that kind of was the quiet little
15:59
approval. But the FCC just granted a
16:02
blanket FTA approval to operate FM One plus the next 25,
16:07
including the Block 1 satellites we have, but basically full 25
16:11
satellite fleet. And that's great.
16:16
That was approved. And then the big thing came
16:19
from, you know, our little proverbial toaster in Midland
16:23
popped and our waffles came out. So ASDS came out, frankly in a
16:28
tweet that looked a little bit defensive of them basically
16:31
going later. WT.
16:32
I was like, what are you smiling in our stock?
16:34
Don't you understand? The AT&T is sending you care
16:38
packages because everything's going great and you idiots are
16:43
gapping our stock down 10% every day for reasons unknown to us.
16:47
And so they put out another tweet that said Bluebird is
16:50
fully assembled, Final tests are being completed imminently.
16:52
This caused their immense amount of confusion with people of,
16:55
again, what is the word is mean. You know, I could just be Bill
16:58
Clinton blushing in some of these tweets.
17:03
But then they gave us some more pictures which show these big
17:07
satellites, big in cans, which we believe to be some of these
17:13
vibration testing apparati that are happening.
17:17
But Catsy of course digs in and we see that FM 2 is right there.
17:23
The structure looks ready and you know, there's just going to
17:26
be integration and take our Bank of good comments, which which
17:31
make a lot of sense about again, the word is.
17:35
And so we had believed, we didn't have the belief that FM
17:39
one had completed what's called EVAC.
17:41
So thermal chamber, basically the big oven that tries to fry
17:46
our waffle and burn it. And then if waffle comes out,
17:51
trying to figure out how far I want to go with these waffle
17:53
analogies. But if the waffle comes out to
17:55
the satisfaction of your piggy child, then you're good.
18:00
Satellite is ready to. However, it's not like you just
18:03
say, all right, ready to ship and then you throw the satellite
18:05
into the closet and wait for your launch vehicle to be ready.
18:08
This is a complex spacecraft. You are and you will be testing
18:13
this spacecraft until the very last second possible.
18:19
But also as Tanner was saying, I think it was Tanner or Kevin was
18:23
saying, well, you got to make sure you're maintaining the
18:25
batteries and testing those. There's some questions around
18:29
when you load the propellant, things like that.
18:32
So the definition of is I think is a flexible interpretation
18:39
which the company in Middle East needs to avoid and be some of
18:44
these very fine point emails like, you know, the week over
18:49
week series because I think it can confuse some people.
18:52
It just goes to the point of like zoom out and probably try
18:57
to not pay as much attention as we are paying because it's
19:00
really kind of counterproductive as far as I can do.
19:02
And people tend to be pretty scared of the dark into a way to
19:07
always shed some light on the monsters beneath your bed or
19:12
just to listen to the company. And so Reg Room has been doing a
19:16
great job categorizing all the kind of audible space, mobile
19:23
content. So this space is included.
19:26
But more importantly than listening to me is to listen to
19:28
Scott. And so Scott did a fireside chat
19:32
the this week with Bank of America and we had some great
19:35
notes from there. And so talking about just how
19:38
much revenue block 1 is going to be Jaggering 10s of millions of
19:42
dollars, reaffirm that they think they can get to cash flow,
19:46
break even satellites, reaffirm the the 40 fact 60 fleet, they
19:53
could get to 24/7 coverage. Lots of just confirmation of
20:01
what's going on. But to me, what is really
20:05
important is this notion that we have this 10 year head start.
20:10
I know that's a controversial comment.
20:11
People will look at SpaceX, but what he says is, look, we've got
20:16
technological lead, but we're not going to.
20:19
Sleep on like that would be my worst fear and and there's just
20:22
no chance that I would ever be the case with this company.
20:25
He talks about how they're reinforcing their mode with the
20:28
L band spectrum just gives them capabilities that allow them to
20:32
push more differentiation and more traffic with the MN OS,
20:35
which is very important. And we'll get Legato hopefully
20:39
this month that I got to just check the docket and see if the
20:41
confirmation hearing was final scheduled.
20:45
But once when we get that confirmation done, then it's
20:49
just a subject to SEC approval, which I I would hope is
20:52
straightforward. But famous loss for Zorgato.
20:55
They talk about the launch happening in soon.
21:01
He said that FM one was ready to ship in August.
21:03
They've had no major issues in the final testing and shipping.
21:07
And I think we could see that everything that we've heard
21:11
about the story over the past couple years is being reaffirmed
21:14
real time. It really incredible setting
21:18
with Bank of America and so it's what I hear and I highly suggest
21:23
everyone listens to this webcast it.
21:26
It's just a good reminder when you have a stock price that can
21:30
zip around. Hold on.
21:32
I got some kids to be quiet one day.
21:34
Hold on. Let me just put this on mute
21:36
real fast. OK, I'm on my phone.
21:44
I gave up on this desktop thing. Can I get some thumbs up if if
21:51
the sound is working OK, really needs to have more than five
21:59
engineers. Is is really what's happening?
22:03
All right, so let's get back at it.
22:04
So I think we're left off was this King Tut ring, which was
22:10
really beautiful for a guy. I don't give too much about the
22:14
background, but for for for this level of wisdom to be present an
22:18
individual is uncommon, and it's great to always take a step back
22:23
and learn from him. You get the job of showing just
22:27
the timelines that were involved with SpaceX and Starlin,
22:31
comparing it to T Space Mobile. But really, again, this
22:35
phenomenon of eagerness gets concentrated into capitulation,
22:40
which is normal human emotion, but it's what is ultimately very
22:45
self-destructive for the individual investor because then
22:49
the price collapse. It makes you think you're
22:51
missing something. And then people get up.
22:53
Losses hit, which was the conversation you should use stop
22:58
losses. It really is antithetical to the
23:01
idea of not only what you own and you know you can see next
23:08
week. Doubts certainly be the
23:17
verification of the regular. I think getting pretty close to
23:20
when cold Dolman supposed to be coming out and I'll send you get
23:24
what solid in the find in what is somewhat of a recurring
23:29
pattern. And this is actually pretty
23:33
interesting about the charts is all of a sudden you have these
23:38
technical formations and people then debate they have meaning or
23:42
not. Well, when everyone's looking at
23:44
it, they they do happen because people start to treat on it, but
23:48
they really are capturing all of human psychology all at once of
23:55
pets and volumes. And wise trader will point out
23:59
the most loudly, despite pointing out also very loudly,
24:03
they will say that these are the most often to get validated.
24:07
And then everyone else drop their own lines, which my lines
24:12
go up, other people's lines don't.
24:14
But it kicks RIP so quickly. And that's where I go when I
24:19
think about the people that have made most money is the people
24:22
that really just focus on the fundamental for a multi horizon.
24:28
I was talking to an individual that owns SpaceX, a lot of it
24:31
last week and obviously private. So you don't have to get it, you
24:37
know, all preoccupied by a head and shoulders pattern.
24:42
You don't even have to be privatified whether a Starship
24:45
explodes in the Gulf of America anymore because you can just be
24:51
convinced it will work eventually.
24:53
Whereas the Republic, you just get mediated.
24:57
SpaceX ambassador, he's just, yeah, this is going to be the
25:00
world's most valuable company. I don't know why this isn't more
25:02
valuable than NVIDIA. Well, yeah.
25:05
Why? Who?
25:05
Who's this day? I mean, SpaceX is really cool.
25:08
I did tell him. I said, hey, you guys just like,
25:11
leave this D to C mark alone. That would be cool.
25:13
And, you know, he laughed. But if you actually take time
25:17
to, you can play through the courts.
25:22
And that put people getting back down, in my experience, the most
25:25
often. And then we had a big tweet from
25:28
Doctor Ali 1979 and and he did a good job this capital.
25:34
He did a good job. You know what bears will glom on
25:38
too. We just just about delayed.
25:39
He's in this sort of the first hint of the play.
25:41
They assume that everything went to hell and he knocked it out of
25:45
bed. But they went back and pointed
25:48
out to this early video, this David Ruschak video, which I
25:51
still upon and probably should not have shared as badly as it
25:57
did. I know he had access to those
25:59
And you gave me the gave me the link and then probably removed.
26:02
But this video is really what was key to investment decision
26:07
and the stuff because you were hearing directly from a third
26:12
party qualified engineering firm that this company was real.
26:16
And he pointed out though that you know, what will happen is
26:20
this stuff will be delayed. They will have to iron it out.
26:25
But you don't want to rush, you want to get it right.
26:27
And then they have to, you know, work out the the long vehicle
26:30
availability, but they'll work out every, I think frankly kind
26:35
of happened to what David and Brescher kind of laid out four
26:40
or five years ago. And the reason why he was being
26:42
able to lay that out accurately is because this is what happens
26:46
when you pioneer in aerospace engineering and that's what
26:50
happened to AST Space Mobile. It doesn't mean that there's no
26:54
very important value creation. Again, look at SpaceX for
26:58
example, and I think we're going to look at Blue Origins, SpaceX,
27:02
AC Space Mobile. I'm just going to throw Rock Lab
27:06
in there just so they don't get cancelled on the Internet.
27:08
But maybe there's some other companies that are are also
27:11
going to be really bona fide players.
27:12
But it's very obvious to me that there's a step wise step
27:16
function change in the so-called space economy and we're the
27:22
front and center of it. And to get to heaven,
27:25
unfortunately it's based investing half of through OWL
27:28
and by all accounts AST space and mobile really is crushing
27:34
it. Now they are delivering goods on
27:38
delayed basis fine, but perfectly integrated.
27:40
So I think I have mentioned this in the past, but they're not
27:44
only getting through the prototypes of their units and
27:47
now getting to the mass production of these big
27:49
satellites, but they're literally building the
27:53
production line at the same time.
27:56
It's pretty impressive. Like Porsche rolling off a brand
27:59
new Porsche Turbo variant. Well, they already have the
28:01
production line. They're just revealing some
28:03
things that they already had built a a well shakedown
28:07
production line. Then there's running a new model
28:09
for it. We're building a production
28:11
facility as we're shaking down the design of the first unit.
28:17
A lot going on. The fact that this space mobiles
28:20
will accomplish this is simply remarkable.
28:25
And they're going other places, too.
28:27
And so we had Cyrus. What was his handle?
28:33
Cyrus. Yeah, I forgot.
28:36
So Cyrus is great. He put out the tweet that just
28:39
showed all these engineering. And then when I was just looking
28:42
through it, I went roll on Tyson's Corner.
28:46
So I used to have some relative out because it worked in the
28:49
defense industry, in particular in the satellite fence industry
28:55
to be more particular. So know a little bit about this
28:57
stuff and we'd bribe by Tyson's Corner.
29:00
And to me, I just thought, oh, it's a bunch of frozen chicken
29:02
because Tyson's Nope, Tyson's Corner is DoD land.
29:07
It is not chicken land. And so why is HP mobile hiring
29:12
for all these jobs in Tyson Corner that's a little bit far
29:15
away from Midland. And so period, standing up a
29:18
government defense hub in the hub of defense.
29:24
So it's very exciting, just more like we needed it that we're
29:30
having a significant ramp up in our military presence.
29:34
And then we had a lot of other interesting things pop up sweet
29:37
too. So the first one we had is from
29:39
Buckeye Estate and just showing more job posting.
29:44
And so one of the requirements is expertise the military cycle
29:49
systems and waveforms. So there's more specificity
29:54
about what's going on. And we've had cats here between
29:58
the this wild and see Bill and it is more job descriptions that
30:05
are very heavy in defense because it is a Fairwinds
30:12
technology next generation network account manager role in
30:16
double to all their responsibilities to militarize
30:19
the AFE broadband advice with AFC tactical hub systems all
30:30
across all branches of military so on and so forth as if we
30:34
didn't know this, but it's just happening increasingly and all
30:40
at once. And we've been have David
30:42
Pollock, who's our head of our kind of government initiative,
30:47
we'll be tweeting some of these roles as well.
30:51
So it's really starting to gear up.
30:55
We have Sidar Patel, who is very advanced programs AST mobile
31:00
saying just flat out quote, we are growing our DoD team here in
31:04
DC Come plot, we have the typo because it is now Dow Department
31:12
of War. But well go then they are
31:14
gearing up. And so, but the Dome
31:17
notwithstanding, we are very clearly getting a lot more
31:22
military work coming to us. That is big business and that
31:28
was always from day one the intent of the company.
31:33
So I think we're going to be finding out more about this in
31:36
the coming weeks at least, you know, based on the schedules
31:40
that have been kind of telegraphed to everyone on
31:42
planet Earth, find it hard to believe Trump is going to let
31:45
the schedule go live. I hope to get marquee rolling
31:49
golden Dome. I have no reason to believe that
31:52
that we won't, but I as I don't know that we will.
31:57
But we're obviously going to have a major role with the
32:00
defense industry and that is really important to having a
32:03
really highly valued talk because we're going to get a lot
32:07
of very nice government revenues from things like first set,
32:10
first responders, things like that.
32:12
But then to also have a big DoD element.
32:15
For one, it's a lot of money. But for two, it's also going to
32:18
really nicely fit to a model that a lot of older people know,
32:23
for example, Spade X. People know how much revenues is
32:27
getting to the government and understand that it's been scaled
32:30
billions of dollars. And so people will know that we
32:33
will also get the types of numbers.
32:36
They're going to be very speedy. So they've been trading like a
32:40
bond, you know, very high multiple cash flows and then
32:43
we'll have the consumer business on top of that.
32:45
It's up for a really good awful. It also had Baron come out.
32:52
So Baron's is really kind of usually thought of as kind of
32:56
like smart strategy analyst, maybe definitely not on the
32:59
cutting edge of group of stocks, although they try.
33:02
But they had an article coming this week the title Elon's Musk
33:07
ill and most acts have a quote natural monopoly.
33:09
Huh, You've heard that before. So I think ASD spitball has an
33:16
even more national monopoly for a couple of reasons.
33:20
Let's first talk about what is set up basics.
33:23
So quote the low Earth or satellite broadband is the
33:27
making of a national monopoly and a global woman at that.
33:30
A natural monopoly can arise when both firm can serve the
33:33
entire market at a lower cost. Multiple firms is characterized
33:38
by high fixed costs and economies of scale and then they
33:41
start compared to the ability. So yeah, that's fine, but false
33:45
client business model. But AST space mobile has ASF
33:50
does not have is a commercial mode.
33:54
So when you line by line. So what does SpaceX have?
33:57
They certainly of vertical integration.
34:00
So they when they need to launch them, they got a guy who they
34:04
ought to call. They literally have their left
34:07
pocket by right pocket. So that's nice.
34:09
But they had to spend all that capital to have a launch
34:12
company. Now is that a good business?
34:14
I don't know everything their numbers, but I'm trying to think
34:19
that launch is probably not a great business because it is
34:22
something that should be subject to commoditization.
34:25
Now the low cost guy can also have a business and Elon Musk is
34:29
by accounts right now the low cost guy.
34:32
So that might be good. Is it verbal not clear.
34:36
There's no network effect in that once you start having
34:40
competition, which is which is happy and just start dropping
34:43
the price when someone lost do something for you one day, no
34:47
lock in or loyalty to have that person launch for you.
34:50
The neck debt. That's why fundamentally
34:52
launches. Maybe I'm missing that, but
34:54
doesn't seem like a great business, but constellations are
35:00
pretty interesting. And so that's where you're going
35:02
to having these multi client business models.
35:05
They can go terribly wrong because they are high fixed cost
35:09
businesses. And so if there are too many
35:11
constellations and people compete all right, then that
35:13
could be it'll be pretty fast. And the traditional MSS based
35:19
fixed broadband, think of like the V Dats and things like that
35:23
and the DATS and the satellite PV, that's kind of what
35:27
happened. There really wasn't that much
35:29
specialness to anyone's service where ASTS based simple, it's
35:35
very interesting is its use of trash and the way in which it's
35:39
able to aggregate customers through its super wholesale
35:42
level. So by tying itself to all the MN
35:47
OS, it starts to create these very deep and powerful
35:50
commercial modes where other companies simply cannot compete.
35:55
The MST mobile does call this out, for example, on that
36:00
fireside chat. Well, Scott, what we'd be
36:03
reasonable and says, look, we we collect there to be competition.
36:07
But he said like most telecom services providers, there's
36:12
usually only maybe there'll be a distant week.
36:16
There has generally been the structure of the market.
36:19
Maybe you think of like the Nokia and the demons, you think
36:23
of the tower guys with, with EMC and castle, then there's SBA,
36:28
but they're just usually pretty consolidated markets.
36:31
So then the question is in a consolidated market and do you
36:34
have a way to hold up the pricing versus have, you know,
36:38
basically just unfair competition?
36:41
And this is where I think that the multiple modes, ASC space
36:45
Mobile's really going to separate it.
36:47
So now you need for one. It's going to be very hard with
36:50
them. The MNO contracts make it almost
36:53
impossible for someone else to compete because right now you
36:56
have three of the three main MMM OS in the US spoke before.
37:01
So anyone else that wanted to build a constellation would be
37:04
able to go through the M and OS and so maybe earlier and can get
37:08
a deal with Apple route then is around the M and OS itself.
37:14
Maybe, but that creates its own complications.
37:18
They're stuck with building a constellation, which is going to
37:20
have crappy economics. So I think that the more people
37:23
look at SpaceX and think of it as a natural monopoly crate, I'm
37:27
not going to disavow them of that because then I want that
37:30
thinking to already be pretty well ingrained so that it's more
37:34
easily extendable to ASD space mobile.
37:37
And once that takes hold, that's when you get to trading
37:42
multiples that can be Palantir ask.
37:47
Not really what my action is. Is that all it's sort of math
37:50
I've put in my DD doc. I think that they're a very good
37:53
band off by multiple because this company gets valued in a
37:58
way that surprises even people like me.
38:02
Actually, I had suspected that this was going on.
38:05
Then I saw on the Internet with Echostar and so sorry you have
38:11
this you know of that driven trade that just worked great and
38:14
so always distressed guys own Echostar lot quit paying.
38:20
It's it's at the other day just since I've had made a spelling
38:24
mistake title of this basis cook cook weekly continued as opposed
38:30
to continued. But as as the search rate
38:33
happens, as the stock goes up, people are increasingly exposed
38:37
to the stock value of the DDD consolation that Charlie is to
38:45
build and that's this Aurora consolation that's made by MDA.
38:51
So as goes up, people increasingly have quote, UN
38:53
quote pay for that and a lot of detachment guys will go well, I
38:57
know. So it's implied value and I
39:00
haven't done math on Sats, but the implied value of Charlie's,
39:06
you know, satellite thing is a billion dollars.
39:08
AST space Mobile is trading for 20 billion and Charlie Burton's
39:11
the man and he'll definitely do it.
39:14
Well, I'm going to just buy SAS for its implied value of a
39:17
billion and short AST space Mobile boards have a value of 16
39:21
billion of brainer. And so you're just going to see
39:24
some people set up that trade and that could also help explain
39:28
some of the short interest because a lot of these people
39:30
with big Echostar positions are going to be looking at it and
39:33
there's really nothing they can use.
39:37
What are they going to do or them via that Meridian.
39:41
Those aren't really that big the companies.
39:44
And so ACC space small block ends up being probably the
39:47
people that people are going to use for hedging purposes quite
39:49
Iraq. And maybe that explains some of
39:52
the dry wood we've put on the Maybe if people go after the
39:57
definition of the word is, we'll find out.
40:00
But. I wouldn't say that anyone
40:03
putting on the XR versus the STS trade has an incredible amount
40:07
of idiosyncratic risk they're being exposed to.
40:10
And my suspicion is they had fully thought through the
40:14
implications of the unities that are part of prime contractor to
40:18
build us and expecting the type of flexibility, agility and
40:26
sensibility that you can build this day and age to to win.
40:30
And I think to win, you have to be vertically integrated in your
40:33
core business like ASTS space mobiles.
40:36
It's fun to hear. Sorry about the the tech issues.
40:41
I'll figure out better still into this next week.
40:47
It's super annoying. I apologize.
40:48
You're wasting people's time Is is I have to go back and forth
40:51
on mute and maybe I'll just keep doing I'm on my phone because
40:54
that's a preferred way to even though last week that that
40:59
failed me. So have a great week everyone.
41:02
And I'm feeling I don't want to say I'm bullish because I'm
41:07
almost short the status of the counter indicator.
41:09
But that notwithstanding, I do feel like the fundamentals right
41:14
now are about to accelerate up right as a pretty traditional
41:19
retail officiation has occurred along with the crappy seasonals
41:25
of September. Just always really sucks and
41:28
there's a lot of chop in the broader macroeconomic markets.
41:31
And so it does really seem kind of like a perk storm that
41:34
probably unfortunately knocked a lot of the well meaning people
41:37
out of out of their investment. And all you can do is try to
41:43
educate people on your own point of view.
41:46
None of us know the future, but I am feeling like we're getting
41:52
to a point where people look past the FM, one of them twos
41:55
and see the latter at the end of the tunnel and all the extending
41:58
momentum that the company's going to carry through.
42:01
And, and their last point is, I thought some people going, oh,
42:05
now they're, they're really pushing off the schedule to say
42:10
maybe rolling it along 6 in 2025 and it will be 20 birds in early
42:15
2026. And that was kind of caused to
42:18
panic for a day. When you think about that, all
42:23
of a sudden it's like, wow, this is definitely lower than 20.
42:25
That seems bad. But what what I think people are
42:28
looking is as we're all paper bagging it, huffing and trying
42:32
not to hyperventilate. Funny thing happens passes 30
42:38
September 7th. You know when kind of come up
42:42
this week and start doing the weekly before you're going to be
42:46
September 12th. And if people really want to
42:48
know the government intellect, if you then double that and say
42:52
two weeks from here, it will just wait for it.
42:55
It will be September 19th. Time literally flies until the
43:00
point in time when people are looking at us having six
43:03
satellites up at the end of 2025.
43:06
Guess what they are going to get me on a practice of then seeing
43:10
the fuselage of 14 more within many more behind that in 2026.
43:17
And so you just really cannot get too negative on some of the
43:21
timing slips because after you've digested the timing slip,
43:26
time has passed and then it turns out to be sure of a delay.
43:30
That's the original thing. But you've already eaten the
43:34
delay with the passage of time. And then now just don't get the
43:38
short thesis because originally you could have said it, you
43:41
know, we've been at risk before, but a delay could really stymie
43:44
the company from from having been able to fund itself.
43:47
Now that's off the table. And so anything that slips by a
43:50
couple weeks you're there. And we still don't know where FM
43:53
1 is going, although we are hopeful that they might get an
43:56
accelerated slot sometime in October and maybe not, we don't
44:01
know. But pretty soon you're just
44:04
going to see these satellites coming off and you will know
44:06
that the launch capacity will loosen up.
44:09
That's not going to hold this company back.
44:11
And then people are going to be looking through and by strong
44:13
belief in seeing the well, you know, I think the hundreds of
44:17
billions of dollar market cap opportunity for this company.
44:21
And I do think that there will be a moment when the stock just
44:23
looks through and doesn't look back and in kindness that will
44:27
be obvious. But I think Tesla provides
44:29
really interesting analog. The market would go sure, the
44:34
Roadster, whatever limited, limited town you'd do something
44:38
more mass market then they blew it away with a bottle.
44:40
That's great, more proof of cost, you know, create a lot of
44:44
market cap, but are you really going to get in that belly of
44:47
the curtain, a big consumer market?
44:51
And then when he got that model 3 off the line, that was a
44:55
monstrous expansion market cap from there.
44:58
And then the other unlocks were having a factory in Shanghai and
45:02
in Germany and global with that Tam and that of course there's
45:06
Tam unlock because of optimists and things like that.
45:10
I think it just is going to follow the same type of unlocks
45:14
in terms of these big buckets of Tam that will really be a luxury
45:21
that shareholders get to enjoy. And we're close to the first of
45:25
as I will mute, this doesn't cut everyone off.
45:31
And again, I apologize for the technical difficulties.
45:35
Bye. Thanks for listening to the AST
45:41
Space Mobile Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and
45:45
you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with
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others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and
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Latest news about AST Space Mobile, make sure to subscribe.
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Thanks again and I'll see you next time.
46:03
We're doing something very, very big and activities technology we
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can really affect billion lives. AFT Space globally is the only
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company that has proven technology to deliver cellular
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broadband connectivity directly from state to the everyday
46:18
smartphone. People will just basically turn
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their phone and be seamless regardless of where you are.
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