Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist previews the latest unemployment figures

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Mark Smith: ASB Senior Economist previews the latest unemployment figures · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

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  Speaker 1: Right job data today. This is for quarter two unemployment
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  Speaker 1: expected to edge up slightly from five point three to
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  Speaker 1: potentially five point five. Mark Smith, asb Senior economs with me, Mark,
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  Speaker 1: why do you reckon five point five?
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  Speaker 2: Good morning, Ryan? Really? The major reason really is the
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  Speaker 2: demand for labor has remained sluggish. To comput an idea,
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  Speaker 2: employment we still expected to be about twenty late twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty three peaks. So while employment is picking up their
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  Speaker 2: own gradually.
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  Speaker 1: When do you think we will return to business as usual?
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  Speaker 1: On employment?
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  Speaker 2: A very good question now. Been a number of events,
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  Speaker 2: The Middle East Conference been the main one. Really, firms
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  Speaker 2: are really looking at it and saying it's pretty difficult
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  Speaker 2: to make a conclusive employment decision on the pub these
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  Speaker 2: things on hold potentially because they could be next year.
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  Speaker 1: What about who's most affected? You know, we always talk
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  Speaker 1: about the young people eighteen to twenty five year old's
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  Speaker 1: most impacted. Will we see the same?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah? Lots of differences here, you know, for example, are
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  Speaker 2: unemployment rates probably more than fifteen percent. You know, it's
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  Speaker 2: been very very tough for them. Looking at regional areas,
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  Speaker 2: you know, unemployments like to be a lot lower in
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  Speaker 2: the South, Island, probably a bit higher than the headline
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  Speaker 2: figures for Auckland and Wellington. And also looking at the sectors,
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  Speaker 2: you know, the good sector, for example, construction jobs will
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  Speaker 2: be pretty strong there, Manufacturing as well. For services reasonally mixed,
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  Speaker 2: but very strong for the primary sector.
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  Speaker 1: Given where you thought we would be in terms of
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  Speaker 1: this recovery. I know we've had a bit of topsy
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  Speaker 1: turvy thanks to the Iran and thanks to Trump. But
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  Speaker 1: how's it tracking? Consumer confidence look was up in the
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  Speaker 1: last survey, Business confidence up in the last survey, Manufacturing
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  Speaker 1: doing well, Services coming back.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. I think what the sort of middle less events
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  Speaker 2: has done is pretty much delayed rather than totally destroyed
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  Speaker 2: the recovery. But the labor market terms of lager cycle,
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  Speaker 2: so we had expected at the start of the year
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  Speaker 2: for the labor market to really kick on in the
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  Speaker 2: second half of this year. Now it's looking more to
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  Speaker 2: be an early two twenty hidden story.
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  Speaker 1: Mark Smith ASB Senior Economists.
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  Speaker 2: For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge.
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  Speaker 1: Listen live to News Talks it B from five am weekdays,
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