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NFL Week 7 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Value Podcast Network.
0:13
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman. I am Chief Content Officer of
0:15
Speaker 1: the Action Network. We are a sports media business that
0:18
Speaker 1: focuses entirely on serving the ever growing and interested sports
0:23
Speaker 1: betting universe. Research Data Analysis picks all of it available
0:29
Speaker 1: for free in the award winning Action Network app. One
0:33
Speaker 1: of those experts that we feature in the app in
0:38
Speaker 1: our analysis all throughout the Action Network universe. My bff,
0:43
Speaker 1: my compadre, and my companion professional better Simon Hunter. Welcome
0:50
Speaker 1: to the show that we did not talk about New
0:53
Speaker 1: Jersey crossing one billion dollars and bets last month. New
0:57
Speaker 1: Jersey crossed one billion Dialles embedding handle in the month
1:04
Speaker 1: of September, the first time any state has done that.
1:08
Speaker 1: I'm assuming that is from you. Fantastic congratulations on being
1:18
Speaker 1: so flush and having such a fat bank roll. It's
1:21
Speaker 1: a it is an astonishment number. You're right to bring
1:23
Speaker 1: it up. It's it's the first time that's ever happened.
1:25
Speaker 1: Nevada has never done it. Nevada is the mature market,
1:28
Speaker 1: been around for fifty years. New Jersey has been around
1:31
Speaker 1: for three. Yeah, I'd like to say Vegas is the
1:34
Speaker 1: amateur New Jersey. You know. It's if you want to
1:38
Speaker 1: be a real sports better, you gotta get to New Jersey.
1:40
Speaker 1: And I got laughed out the room and I said
1:42
Speaker 1: that three years ago, now look at us man a
1:45
Speaker 1: billion dollars on one month. That Las Vegas never could.
1:49
Speaker 1: You know what's interesting? Years and years ago, We've often
1:52
Speaker 1: talked about Scooch, Bob Scucci, who is a bookmaker for
1:56
Speaker 1: Boyd Gaming and uh used to be the bookmaker for
1:59
Speaker 1: the star Us Hotel, which is part of the board
2:01
Speaker 1: game and property. I wrote my book The Odds Scooch,
2:05
Speaker 1: about guys who bet in sports for a living in
2:07
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. Scooch was a primary character in that he
2:10
Speaker 1: was the co host of this podcast before Simon had
2:13
Speaker 1: him eliminated. And um uh, he once told me for
2:20
Speaker 1: a story. I was in Las Vegas doing a story
2:23
Speaker 1: for sixty on TV for ESPN, and I asked him
2:27
Speaker 1: what happens if sports betting is legalized? Is that good
2:30
Speaker 1: for Vegas or bad for Vegas? And he said it's
2:32
Speaker 1: great because there's gonna be more people betting, more people
2:37
Speaker 1: understanding it, and they're all gonna want to come to Vegas.
2:41
Speaker 1: To do it even more because Vegas like Disneyland for betting,
2:46
Speaker 1: and you kind of just said that, like, well, New
2:49
Speaker 1: Jersey has clearly overtaken Vegas is sort of the sports
2:52
Speaker 1: betting capital of the world. Vegas is still the place
2:56
Speaker 1: people want to go to like visit and do it
2:59
Speaker 1: with friends. It's like it is, it is like the
3:01
Speaker 1: Disneyland of betting. Yeah. New Jersey's all business. I think
3:05
Speaker 1: nine hundred million of our bets were online, Like that's
3:08
Speaker 1: just there. That's very different than Vegas, And we don't
3:12
Speaker 1: have some giant pool bar outside sports book were like
3:16
Speaker 1: lacking and a lot of those things. We have like
3:17
Speaker 1: these little corner office sports books in New Jersey. So
3:21
Speaker 1: it's definitely different where you kind of have to go
3:24
Speaker 1: to the books in Vegas to make these bets and
3:26
Speaker 1: get money down New Jersey, a lot of these people
3:28
Speaker 1: just do it from their couch and then never you go.
3:30
Speaker 1: They've never even been inside of sports book. So it
3:33
Speaker 1: is much different than it used to be. Uh well,
3:35
Speaker 1: sports betting is now online in Connecticut. Uh there are
3:39
Speaker 1: three books in which you can bet because Connecticut sucked
3:42
Speaker 1: it up and couldn't actually do it the right way.
3:44
Speaker 1: So there's only three books as opposed to the dozens
3:47
Speaker 1: of books you can bet down in New Jersey. One
3:49
Speaker 1: of those books, and who is our sponsor? And I
3:52
Speaker 1: say this not because they are a sponsor, but I
3:56
Speaker 1: signed up for all three books uh FanDuel I was
3:59
Speaker 1: able to get verified as being a resident of the
4:02
Speaker 1: state and being located in the state, UM, literally sixty seconds.
4:08
Speaker 1: The other book uh took me about the full day
4:13
Speaker 1: and a lot of tries. Another book UM forty eight
4:18
Speaker 1: hours later, still not able to bet from the state
4:22
Speaker 1: of Connecticut because their software cannot identify that I am
4:25
Speaker 1: in Connecticut. So I have now had to submit documentation
4:31
Speaker 1: Connecticut and I got again. You just said you only
4:33
Speaker 1: have three books in New Jersey. I think we're up
4:36
Speaker 1: to nineteen or eighteen books. It's pretty much. I would
4:40
Speaker 1: say half of them are quick, like you just talked about.
4:42
Speaker 1: And I have a couple of books I'm still not processed,
4:44
Speaker 1: and it's probably been like a year since they were
4:46
Speaker 1: opened in Jersey. So it is some some companies are
4:50
Speaker 1: just really slow with it, and other guys are. They
4:52
Speaker 1: want your money, they're quick, They'll they'll get you in fast.
4:55
Speaker 1: It's pretty amazing, pretty amazing. All right, we got a
4:58
Speaker 1: lot to get to. On Tuesday, we talked about the
5:01
Speaker 1: entire slate. We narrowed down to six seven games that
5:03
Speaker 1: we really like that we will then make our five best.
5:05
Speaker 1: On Sunday we got to talk about a Survivor pick um.
5:09
Speaker 1: We have to get to our big balls better the week.
5:14
Speaker 1: I will remind everybody of our scoot Roulette picks from
5:16
Speaker 1: the other day. But as always, your professional betting colleagues
5:22
Speaker 1: love to call you after the Tuesday podcast and say
5:25
Speaker 1: I agree with you on this take. I don't agree
5:27
Speaker 1: with you on this take. You're crazy. Sometimes it gets
5:30
Speaker 1: in your head and makes you rethink things and then
5:32
Speaker 1: you influences what we do. On Thursday, we're gonna start
5:35
Speaker 1: with sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking Yeah, quick
5:50
Speaker 1: quick calls this week. So Matt Mitchell Pipe posted it
5:53
Speaker 1: four pm. I got multiple calls by five, which is
5:58
Speaker 1: like two fifteen, two o'clock. It's Vegas time. So my one.
6:02
Speaker 1: We have avid listeners who are listening as soon as
6:05
Speaker 1: the show is dropped. Again. These are people that do
6:08
Speaker 1: nothing all day, so you shouldn't be that shocked. Like
6:10
Speaker 1: a lot of my guys, I worked with their days
6:12
Speaker 1: don't start until seven pm, So I'm not shocked at all.
6:15
Speaker 1: But yeah, first first thing he says it was, how
6:19
Speaker 1: are you take in green Bay after last week? You
6:22
Speaker 1: gotta take Washington football team? You love this not but
6:25
Speaker 1: at nine you love it at nine and a half.
6:27
Speaker 1: And he just kept going on and on. I love
6:29
Speaker 1: I still love green Bay. Still think we're getting a
6:31
Speaker 1: great number. Uh. I think professionals are goind of getting
6:35
Speaker 1: trapped here where they're seeing a high number. They're just
6:38
Speaker 1: like me and you know, we we think green Bay
6:39
Speaker 1: is overrated. They're not as good as they've been this year.
6:41
Speaker 1: Like they've they've played above where they should be. But
6:45
Speaker 1: when you started diving in the numbers, it's like, you know,
6:47
Speaker 1: they've actually been a little unlucky. They're one of the
6:49
Speaker 1: worst teams in the red zone um statistically this year
6:53
Speaker 1: playing against a Washington football team. That man, there's no
6:57
Speaker 1: doubt in it now. They're they're bad, like they're They're
7:00
Speaker 1: line is not as good as we thought it was. Uh,
7:02
Speaker 1: their secondary is legit awful. So you know, he was
7:06
Speaker 1: giving me a hard time saying we should be off
7:08
Speaker 1: green Bay. Nothing's changed. I still love it, still love
7:11
Speaker 1: it at seven and a half. It feels just like
7:14
Speaker 1: last week with the Rams and the Giants. This these
7:16
Speaker 1: these professional groups are coming in on this dog. They're
7:18
Speaker 1: think they're getting a good number. They've been it all
7:20
Speaker 1: the way down in the end, they might be just
7:22
Speaker 1: giving us a better number. So I have no issues
7:25
Speaker 1: taking Green Bay putting them in a teaser, and I
7:27
Speaker 1: get their argument there. It's the same reason I kind
7:30
Speaker 1: of like the Texas this week. It's a nice look
7:32
Speaker 1: ahead spot. So the Cardinals and Green Bay played each
7:34
Speaker 1: other on Thursday night, people are assuming they're gonna kind
7:37
Speaker 1: of overlook both these teams are playing to get ready
7:40
Speaker 1: for Thursday night. I just can't see that with green
7:42
Speaker 1: Bay at home, and it's hard to see the Cardinals,
7:45
Speaker 1: whore undefeated, just laying an egg. So it's it's both
7:48
Speaker 1: these times where I hear why they're saying it's a
7:49
Speaker 1: look ahead spot. I just can't get on board with
7:52
Speaker 1: that with these two teams. You love this game so
7:55
Speaker 1: much and you have made it. I mentioned screwtrow Lett
7:58
Speaker 1: obviously scretrow Let. For those who new to the podcast,
8:00
Speaker 1: I mentioned Bob SCOOCHI earlier Scooch and I when He
8:04
Speaker 1: was the co host of the podcast before Simon had
8:06
Speaker 1: him killed. Um. He we used to do this head
8:09
Speaker 1: to head matchups Scoot roulette, I choose a game, he
8:11
Speaker 1: each choose a game. Uh. So we brought it back
8:14
Speaker 1: in honor of Scooch and this week Scoot Roulette, Simon
8:19
Speaker 1: chose Green Bay. I chose the Eagles UM as underdogs
8:22
Speaker 1: against the Raiders. This is the most interesting game on
8:26
Speaker 1: the board right now because when I listened to Raybun
8:28
Speaker 1: and Stuckey in the Action Network podcast this morning and
8:31
Speaker 1: they were going through their Sunday six pack, Um, they
8:35
Speaker 1: loved Washington. Hey, the line was nine and a half.
8:38
Speaker 1: You mentioned the line has and I moved down to
8:40
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Uh, they had it. They had
8:42
Speaker 1: it rated at seven. They made some really good points
8:45
Speaker 1: about the Washington football team and that while the d
8:48
Speaker 1: line hasn't performed as well as it did last year,
8:50
Speaker 1: it's still pretty good. It's it's the pass rush has
8:54
Speaker 1: been strong, it just hasn't been getting to the quarterback.
8:57
Speaker 1: It's the defensive backfield that is a mess. And that's
8:59
Speaker 1: what causing the problems from the Washington football team. And
9:03
Speaker 1: then you think about the Packers and two years ago,
9:06
Speaker 1: Raybon did amazing stories about Aaron Rodgers and how he
9:10
Speaker 1: was uh continuing to perform worse and worse against against
9:14
Speaker 1: the pass rush. Obviously rectified that last year, but this
9:17
Speaker 1: year there are three quarterbacks worse against the rush right
9:23
Speaker 1: now than Aaron Rodgers to a Gino Smith justin fields.
9:28
Speaker 1: So we're talking about a team that does have a
9:31
Speaker 1: look ahead spot that to me, still has some flukey wins,
9:35
Speaker 1: like there were some plays in that Bears game that
9:38
Speaker 1: it didn't need to go that way. It's making me
9:41
Speaker 1: a little nervous about this. It puts me in a
9:42
Speaker 1: quandary because I'm starting to favor the Washington football team.
9:46
Speaker 1: It feels like a overrated, underrated spot. I got the
9:50
Speaker 1: guys in Vegas calling you sharp calls. But you love
9:54
Speaker 1: this so much, You've made it your Scoot Roulette pick.
9:56
Speaker 1: How can I not back my bff and want this
9:59
Speaker 1: to be in our top five? Don't step into the trap.
10:03
Speaker 1: It's just a trap. Uh. Antonio Gibson their number one
10:06
Speaker 1: running back, he's hurt. Terry mclauren, their number one receiver,
10:09
Speaker 1: he's hurt. Curtis Samuel, their number two receiver. He's hurt.
10:13
Speaker 1: Heineke is not a good quarterback. So if it was
10:15
Speaker 1: fits and all their guys were healthy, I told you
10:17
Speaker 1: I'd love Washington this. This is a great position. You're
10:21
Speaker 1: literally got a backup quarterback with no starters on offense,
10:24
Speaker 1: So if you're down fourteen points to Green Bay, you're
10:28
Speaker 1: gonna be praying to even get in field goal arranged.
10:30
Speaker 1: With this Washington team, I just don't see how they
10:32
Speaker 1: move the ball. So I just in a normal situation, yeah,
10:36
Speaker 1: I would be with them on Washington. I just feel
10:39
Speaker 1: like they're they're overlooking the most obvious things that this
10:42
Speaker 1: Washington team doesn't have any offensive weapons to stay in
10:45
Speaker 1: this game. So again, I feel great about my greement position.
10:48
Speaker 1: I still I'm happy now that it's down to seven
10:50
Speaker 1: and a half. Seven At seven and a half seven,
10:53
Speaker 1: if it starts to feel much better to me, I
10:55
Speaker 1: wonder if professional better is other than you look at
10:58
Speaker 1: this at seven and have seven and say, oh, I'm
11:00
Speaker 1: taking the Packers. Yeah. I mean they took it a ten.
11:02
Speaker 1: They took it a nine and a half. Maybe they
11:03
Speaker 1: will flip over, but they didn't last week. Like they
11:06
Speaker 1: kept betting the Giants, they betted down a lot off
11:08
Speaker 1: shore books that got down to seven by kickoff, So
11:11
Speaker 1: we'll see what they'll do this week. But I feel
11:13
Speaker 1: like they're stepping in another trap. Well, look, this was
11:15
Speaker 1: one of This was a big one for us. Uh so, uh,
11:19
Speaker 1: we can check that one off the list. Another game
11:22
Speaker 1: that we talked a lot about Chiefs and Titans, Chiefs
11:26
Speaker 1: on the road, visiting the Titans off a short week
11:28
Speaker 1: at five and a half. Um, we didn't have a
11:33
Speaker 1: strong opinion on this. This to us was a let's
11:36
Speaker 1: just make sure we watch it kind of game. Has
11:39
Speaker 1: anything changed for you? Yeah, we were. I mean, we're
11:43
Speaker 1: gonna wait and see if this keep getting bet up
11:45
Speaker 1: because I'd be great if we could get this at six.
11:47
Speaker 1: And now it's going the other way kind of. Some
11:48
Speaker 1: books have it down to four and a half now,
11:50
Speaker 1: so still the same thing. We like the Tennessee team
11:54
Speaker 1: that can run on the Chiefs team, but it's this
11:57
Speaker 1: classic game. Whoever is the ball last feels like they're
11:59
Speaker 1: gonna win, So you know, I'm gonna take the points.
12:02
Speaker 1: I'll take the money line on Tennessee just because that's
12:04
Speaker 1: where the value is. But this is the definition of
12:07
Speaker 1: a coin flip game. Um, there's so many injuries in
12:09
Speaker 1: this secondary to this Tennessee team. No one's gonna be
12:13
Speaker 1: able to stop Travis Kelsey this matchup. So if they
12:16
Speaker 1: can ball control it with Derrick Henry, you know it's
12:19
Speaker 1: gonna be second and three all game for this Tennessee offense.
12:21
Speaker 1: And Ryan Tannell can just make these short completions and
12:24
Speaker 1: step up, it's hard not to take Tennessee here. They
12:27
Speaker 1: just everything slants towards them where they're the home team.
12:30
Speaker 1: They have the run game that can can be consistent.
12:33
Speaker 1: We've seen it with my homes. He makes incredible plays.
12:36
Speaker 1: He also messes up a decent amount. If you mess
12:38
Speaker 1: up against this Tennessee team, they're gonna capitalize on it.
12:41
Speaker 1: So I still love the number of four and a half.
12:44
Speaker 1: It's hard to say it's one of my favorite five,
12:46
Speaker 1: but just because of all the bye weeks, it might
12:49
Speaker 1: end up being you on Sunday, we might end up
12:50
Speaker 1: taking this one just because again, there's just so many
12:53
Speaker 1: ugly games this week. It's hard to just take big favorites.
12:56
Speaker 1: So we'll see you don't care that Taylor Lawan is
12:59
Speaker 1: doubt and Julio Jones is probably out not an ideal.
13:04
Speaker 1: But at the same time, the biggest concern for me
13:08
Speaker 1: is just doesn't matter for Derrick Henry and it doesn't.
13:11
Speaker 1: You take Taylor the one out and you replace him
13:14
Speaker 1: with the other guy, and the run team, the run
13:16
Speaker 1: game didn't change at all. It stayed the same. So
13:19
Speaker 1: apparently is not that big of a deal. And we're
13:21
Speaker 1: talking about a Kansas City Chiefs team that literally has
13:24
Speaker 1: the worst run defense and football. So now that doesn't
13:27
Speaker 1: move the needle for me. Okay, all right, fair enough.
13:31
Speaker 1: I don't think I want to put it on our
13:32
Speaker 1: top five. It feels it feels risky. Um, all these
13:40
Speaker 1: games are gonna feel risky. A you Yeah, Well, by
13:43
Speaker 1: the way, you make it sound like I'm some you know,
13:47
Speaker 1: scared adult living in Connecticut. Do you know the risks
13:52
Speaker 1: I've taken in my life? I do. You literally left
13:56
Speaker 1: the hard city of Chicago to come out East. Hey, A,
14:02
Speaker 1: I got married. There is no bigger risk for anybody
14:07
Speaker 1: then making that commitment. You don't know how it's going
14:10
Speaker 1: to go. You don't know how how the relationship is
14:12
Speaker 1: going to evolve. You don't know how the person you
14:14
Speaker 1: married is going to evolve. You have kids. Getting married
14:17
Speaker 1: is playing in safe chat, then get then you have kids,
14:20
Speaker 1: that that getting having kids as a risk. Then I
14:23
Speaker 1: left ESPN go launch this fucking thing, like come on,
14:27
Speaker 1: because I'm afraid, Like, because I'm anxious about a game,
14:31
Speaker 1: please please. I did bet the Broncos plus three got
14:36
Speaker 1: ahead of that because we had a little conversation about it.
14:40
Speaker 1: I know, right, um, all right. The other game that
14:44
Speaker 1: we talked about this was our Simon says bet, which
14:48
Speaker 1: was the Bengals. You said, wait, you said, let it
14:51
Speaker 1: was at six six and a half. I think it
14:52
Speaker 1: was a six and a half. You said, wait, it
14:54
Speaker 1: actually got that down to six. Now it's back up
14:57
Speaker 1: to six and a half. I think I still love
14:59
Speaker 1: the bank goes here. Yeah, we still love. We still
15:02
Speaker 1: think it's three points of too much value. Um. We
15:04
Speaker 1: talked about, like, again, what would this line be if
15:07
Speaker 1: Cincinnati beat Green Bay? What would this line be if
15:10
Speaker 1: very Beans had lost the game to the Lines or
15:12
Speaker 1: lost to the Chiefs. It would just too many little
15:15
Speaker 1: bounces are deciding this line right now, where like we
15:18
Speaker 1: talked about, it feels like it's three points over valued.
15:20
Speaker 1: And this is kind of the classic line from Las Vegas.
15:24
Speaker 1: They're saying Okay, Bengals, we have you plus a thousand.
15:27
Speaker 1: Win the North, prove it to us win this game.
15:30
Speaker 1: If they win this game, that's gonna go from plus
15:32
Speaker 1: a thousand to what plus two hundred plus three hundred, Chad,
15:35
Speaker 1: this is gonna drop way down because the Ravens, they're
15:38
Speaker 1: they're driving the bus right now, they're leading this division.
15:41
Speaker 1: It's hard to not take if you like that number.
15:44
Speaker 1: If you like the Bengals like we do, you have
15:47
Speaker 1: to sprinkle some on them to win the North. Like
15:48
Speaker 1: this is the classic. We take this number. We're taking
15:51
Speaker 1: the money line as well. You gotta put someone for
15:53
Speaker 1: them to win the North. So nothing's changed here. Still
15:56
Speaker 1: like the number. I wish it was at seven, don't
15:59
Speaker 1: mind it a six and a half. That's a key number,
16:00
Speaker 1: like we talked about. So this this feels like an
16:03
Speaker 1: easy no brainer. This will be one of our five. Yeah,
16:05
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to, uh, as I sit here in Connecticut,
16:09
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to hit that six and a half.
16:11
Speaker 1: Right now on the podcast, Chad Milman is making a bet.
16:15
Speaker 1: He's not scared. I'll tell you that right now live.
16:19
Speaker 1: That's legally look at Chad Live Betting legally in Connecticut,
16:22
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. Um. A game that we didn't go deep into,
16:28
Speaker 1: but the line has moved into it a different position.
16:35
Speaker 1: Jets Patriots. Now it's a seven point Jets underdog. Like
16:42
Speaker 1: I talked about, it's disgusting, but I have to take
16:44
Speaker 1: the Jets. But do I feel confident about it? Not
16:47
Speaker 1: at all? Um gross gross, gross, gross game. But we
16:53
Speaker 1: have New England with a bunch of injuries coming off
16:55
Speaker 1: a bad loss, playing a Jets team that's coming off
16:57
Speaker 1: of by um, it's kind it feels like a little
17:01
Speaker 1: too easy. That's again it's making me scary because I
17:03
Speaker 1: really liked this number for the Jets. Uh. I don't know, Chad.
17:08
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm not gonna make you put it
17:10
Speaker 1: in just because I'm like every time I make you
17:12
Speaker 1: put the Jets in, they lose. But it's a smart
17:15
Speaker 1: number plus seven. So we'll see where it ends up
17:18
Speaker 1: in our our five picks. But if it's six and
17:21
Speaker 1: a half, I probably wouldn't do it. But if it
17:22
Speaker 1: was seven, I would think about it. Um the Uh,
17:29
Speaker 1: the Patriots could end up being an interesting survivor pick,
17:35
Speaker 1: which we are also going to get to today. We
17:38
Speaker 1: gotta we gotta choose somebody. I was looking at you
17:41
Speaker 1: know what I want to hold that. I want to
17:42
Speaker 1: hold that thought. I want to hold that thought. Um
17:45
Speaker 1: the next game that we want to talk about, this
17:48
Speaker 1: one is so ugly, so ugly. Atlanta Falcons visiting the
17:55
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are two and a half point
17:58
Speaker 1: dogs right now. We we love the Dolphins here, we
18:03
Speaker 1: just have to and we don't. How do we feel
18:06
Speaker 1: though now with all this drama going on with two
18:09
Speaker 1: and Watson like that that's a lot like he's getting
18:11
Speaker 1: asked about it as preface conference? Does that change at
18:14
Speaker 1: all how you feel about this matchup? Should it? It
18:19
Speaker 1: makes me a little nervous, like this could be the last,
18:22
Speaker 1: you know, not the last time you play them, because
18:24
Speaker 1: no one knows who deals with Botson. I feel even
18:26
Speaker 1: played this season, but it's never good when you're your management,
18:31
Speaker 1: your team's kind of given up on you already looking
18:33
Speaker 1: the other way. And we like this matchup for the
18:36
Speaker 1: simple effect that this was a great bounceback spot and
18:39
Speaker 1: Atlanta's favorite, which I don't know why Atlanta Falcons every favorite.
18:43
Speaker 1: Maybe we know why now, Maybe it's because this Miami
18:45
Speaker 1: team is that bad and they're kind of a dumpster fire,
18:47
Speaker 1: but nothing's changed. I still bet Miami Miami a couple
18:51
Speaker 1: of teasers, so it is one of those. I'm gonna
18:53
Speaker 1: be on it. But it gave me a little pause
18:55
Speaker 1: with all the Watson stuff because that's just a distraction
18:58
Speaker 1: that a bad team like Miami might not be able
19:01
Speaker 1: to overcome. All right, all right. There were also stories
19:04
Speaker 1: about has Florida's lost the team? Uh? Do players are
19:09
Speaker 1: other players on the trading block? Um? You never know
19:13
Speaker 1: what these things. It's it's hard to know, like how
19:16
Speaker 1: quickly it can go downhill? You know that. Last night
19:18
Speaker 1: their Twitter was a buzz because Jalen Johnson, the cornerback
19:24
Speaker 1: for the Chicago Bears, was fine because he showed up
19:27
Speaker 1: to a meeting at eight sixteen instead of eight fifteen,
19:30
Speaker 1: and he got an official letter from Matt Nagy and
19:32
Speaker 1: he posted it on Twitter. Um, that's crazy to two
19:37
Speaker 1: one minute elite, one minute late, So look, just get
19:42
Speaker 1: there a fifteen, Like it's not that hard. Like I
19:46
Speaker 1: don't I don't uh mind Matt Nagy having the rule,
19:52
Speaker 1: you'd be there at a fifteen. Uh if I had
19:56
Speaker 1: that rule and someone showed up at eight sixteen, am
19:58
Speaker 1: I going to find him? Probably not um, but the
20:02
Speaker 1: rule is the rule. I don't mind him holding him
20:04
Speaker 1: accountable and deciding that was when he was going to
20:06
Speaker 1: be a hardass. I don't know what the situation is
20:09
Speaker 1: that went up to that. Has he been late three times?
20:11
Speaker 1: Has he gotten warnings where five people late? And like
20:15
Speaker 1: nag is just pissed. The fact that Jalen Johnson posted
20:19
Speaker 1: it on social makes me think Matt Nigi has lost
20:25
Speaker 1: that team. You don't do that when you're afraid of
20:28
Speaker 1: the coach. You don't do that when you respect the coach.
20:30
Speaker 1: You don't do that when the locker room is uh
20:34
Speaker 1: full of bright light chemistry. You do that when you've
20:37
Speaker 1: lost the team. I wonder if that's the same case
20:39
Speaker 1: in Miami right now. And like, there are some nice
20:43
Speaker 1: things to say about Matt Ryan. I don't want to
20:45
Speaker 1: bet this team, but so maybe it's a pass uh
20:49
Speaker 1: because of all the other turmoil. I think, all things considered,
20:53
Speaker 1: the Dolphins on the right side, Yeah, Matt Ryance played
20:56
Speaker 1: well his last two starts, but some people were saying
20:58
Speaker 1: that to us, and we went we didn't talk about
21:00
Speaker 1: good Atlantis played their last two games. They played well
21:02
Speaker 1: their last two games. Matt Ryan's throwing the ball I
21:05
Speaker 1: think for three yards and both starts, but he still
21:08
Speaker 1: doesn't look right to me. Also, they did play against
21:12
Speaker 1: the Jets, right, They played the Jets in the Washington
21:15
Speaker 1: football team, which they lost to at home. You don't
21:18
Speaker 1: get to win super Bowls by by playing well against
21:21
Speaker 1: the worst teams. You did promise this would be in
21:23
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons podcast. By the way, I was lost. I
21:27
Speaker 1: was a lost man at that time. I don't know
21:29
Speaker 1: what the hell happened. I don't know what you were thinking.
21:31
Speaker 1: The Eagles, my scooter let pick. They are currently let
21:36
Speaker 1: me just triple check here, three point underdogs, the line
21:41
Speaker 1: moving in their direction. We got a prose Joe's game here.
21:44
Speaker 1: Still love the Eagles here. That's probably a big ball
21:47
Speaker 1: better week, buddy, big ball, better the week. More people
21:55
Speaker 1: on Twitter hated this pick. Of all of our picks
21:57
Speaker 1: that they do not like betting the Eagles. They've like,
22:00
Speaker 1: we got lucky last week, covering by half a point.
22:02
Speaker 1: We played the numbers here, baby, yeah, the right side
22:05
Speaker 1: of the winning side. Thank you, Scooch. That was just
22:07
Speaker 1: a smart number. It's same with this week at three
22:09
Speaker 1: or three and a half. This is a smart number
22:11
Speaker 1: with the Eagles. And we love what this Las Vegas
22:14
Speaker 1: team did last week, such a leaddown spot. And now
22:17
Speaker 1: they're playing a team that's coming off extended rest because
22:19
Speaker 1: they put on Thurs Nay in this Egos team, How
22:22
Speaker 1: how do we not bet this again? If you if
22:24
Speaker 1: you like Las Vegas, take them first half. This Egos
22:27
Speaker 1: team has consistently started out slow this year. That maybe
22:30
Speaker 1: that you're in. But for us, full game, I love
22:33
Speaker 1: the Eagles up plus three will also look like um,
22:37
Speaker 1: the we felt this way about the Raiders last week.
22:41
Speaker 1: Everyone hated it, right, we we sent that out on Twitter.
22:44
Speaker 1: Everyone on Twitter hated that Raiders pick. To me, this
22:48
Speaker 1: feels like a smash spot for the Eagles. And look
22:51
Speaker 1: the the stats are indicating that it's a aggressively bet
22:56
Speaker 1: game according to the Action Network and an app and
23:00
Speaker 1: actually network dot Com And looking at the total bets,
23:02
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the betting percentages. I'm looking at the
23:05
Speaker 1: money percentages. The bets are coming in on the Raiders.
23:08
Speaker 1: The money's coming in on the Eagles. That tells you
23:10
Speaker 1: the professionals like the Eagles. There's reverse line movement here
23:13
Speaker 1: like the bets are coming in on the Raiders, and
23:15
Speaker 1: the line moved down from three and a half to
23:17
Speaker 1: three all signals. Bet the Eagles. Don't even think about it,
23:22
Speaker 1: don't be sad, don't think about it as a risk.
23:26
Speaker 1: It's the Eagles. You're gonna bet them against the Raiders.
23:29
Speaker 1: It's the right spot. Yeah, and just play the numbers,
23:31
Speaker 1: trying out to think about the teams, because if you do,
23:34
Speaker 1: you're gonna get burned a lot of times. Matt Mitchell.
23:37
Speaker 1: If you if the rates, if the Eagles lose, and
23:39
Speaker 1: you clip this and you throw it back in my face,
23:42
Speaker 1: I'm going to be so mad, Chad. I would never
23:46
Speaker 1: do that to you as your producer, But what I
23:48
Speaker 1: would do is use this as an opportunity to have
23:52
Speaker 1: a conversation with you, using only totally out of context
23:56
Speaker 1: clips I have of you on my computer. For example, Chad,
24:02
Speaker 1: do you think we should do something like that? I
24:04
Speaker 1: like that idea. I think that's a really good idea. Perfect.
24:08
Speaker 1: What is your philosophy for this podcast? Hit people in
24:12
Speaker 1: the fucking mouth, run it up their fucking throat. That's it, Okay,
24:18
Speaker 1: what do you think about me? Unconditionally dila Matt Mitchell perfect.
24:24
Speaker 1: What do you think about Simon? Fucking loser? And finally,
24:29
Speaker 1: what do you think about yourself? I don't even know
24:32
Speaker 1: what to say about that? No, really, what do you
24:34
Speaker 1: think about yourself? Chad is a delf? Okay, perfect, Let's
24:39
Speaker 1: get back to the show. A couple more games on
24:42
Speaker 1: our list here, Simon one that I think is a
24:45
Speaker 1: little bit controversial. We liked the Cults, uh plus three
24:49
Speaker 1: and a half against the Niners. That line is now
24:55
Speaker 1: four and a half. Money This is another one. Money
24:58
Speaker 1: is on the Colts, bets are on the Niners. Is
25:02
Speaker 1: it the Jimmy G effect? Is Jimmy G is like
25:04
Speaker 1: there are rumors that he's gonna be one back plane,
25:07
Speaker 1: He's going to be back. There's defensive backs coming back
25:10
Speaker 1: for um the Niners. To me, there's always the Kyle
25:16
Speaker 1: Shanahan factor when he's had a little bit more time
25:18
Speaker 1: to prepare. I think there's a little bit of shine
25:21
Speaker 1: on the Colts because they've played well the past couple
25:24
Speaker 1: of weeks, and Carson Wentz is looked better, but Paris
25:27
Speaker 1: Campbell out t Y Hilton questionable. He's down the receivers
25:31
Speaker 1: that made him look better the past couple of weeks,
25:34
Speaker 1: it's still not a very good rush defense against a
25:38
Speaker 1: team that is going to find a way to run
25:40
Speaker 1: the ball. And then Chris Rayba from the Action Network
25:42
Speaker 1: podcast have these two system stats, which I know you're
25:46
Speaker 1: gonna love. Are you ready? Since two thousand three, after
25:50
Speaker 1: week six, teams that have covered less than thirty percent
25:56
Speaker 1: of the time, which is the Niners versus teams that
25:59
Speaker 1: are better than five hundred against the spread, which is
26:02
Speaker 1: the Cult win at a seventy clip. And it's not
26:06
Speaker 1: even like a small sample size. This is based on
26:08
Speaker 1: more than a hundred and fifty games since two thousand three.
26:13
Speaker 1: Number one, Number two non West Coast teams that go
26:17
Speaker 1: west for a primetime game. The West Coast team is
26:21
Speaker 1: and six and two thousand three. That's against the spread
26:25
Speaker 1: to historical precedents that give me fear. Yeah, it's Gary trends.
26:29
Speaker 1: And we thought this line didn't look right. It feels
26:32
Speaker 1: like a trap because I just think this line was
26:35
Speaker 1: so high, So damn it, Chris. Maybe maybe we don't,
26:39
Speaker 1: maybe this isn't one of our best five, but I
26:41
Speaker 1: don't know. I just love this number. It's like this
26:43
Speaker 1: kid Jonathan Taylor, like as much as I love Carson.
26:46
Speaker 1: It's also because the Jonathan Taylor. This kid is playing
26:49
Speaker 1: out of his mind for this Colds team. Like every
26:51
Speaker 1: game he's racking up a hundred fifty yards receiving or running,
26:54
Speaker 1: and I just don't see the Forts having that X
26:58
Speaker 1: weapon that can really counter that. So, you know I
27:02
Speaker 1: talked to earlier the week. I still like the over. Um,
27:04
Speaker 1: I'll still be on the Colts. But that's that is scary,
27:07
Speaker 1: that's not that's those aren't the trends you want to hear. Um.
27:10
Speaker 1: So maybe this won't be our best five, but I'm
27:13
Speaker 1: still gonna be on the Colts. Those aren't the trends
27:15
Speaker 1: you want to hear when you're thinking about like a
27:17
Speaker 1: team that's quarterback by Carson Wentz who to me, it's
27:20
Speaker 1: like Matt Ryan. You know he he was he was
27:23
Speaker 1: great against the Colts and then I mean against the Ravens,
27:27
Speaker 1: but then kind of lost it and then he blew
27:29
Speaker 1: up against the bad team the next week. Um with
27:33
Speaker 1: with most of his players back, and now he's not
27:35
Speaker 1: going to have those guys. I agree about Jonathan Taylor.
27:37
Speaker 1: He's turning into a top five running back. He'll be
27:41
Speaker 1: the guy next year. That is like I gotta get
27:44
Speaker 1: him in Fantasy Yeah, and I'll draft the number one
27:48
Speaker 1: overall and he'll be out for the rest of the year,
27:50
Speaker 1: just like McCaffrey. That's that's no, there's no doubt about it.
27:57
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29:52
Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show. So the last game,
29:55
Speaker 1: we want to talk about Saints and the Seahawks. I
29:58
Speaker 1: think we still love the Saints. Here. Saints are four
30:00
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. Still still like the Saints.
30:05
Speaker 1: I like their run defense against this Seattle team that
30:07
Speaker 1: looks like they need to run it just to get
30:09
Speaker 1: Gino going, Like they need to run it to have
30:11
Speaker 1: teams have their linebackers suck up so you can just
30:14
Speaker 1: do play action pass. Saints defense is still really good.
30:17
Speaker 1: They give up one of the lowest yards on the ground,
30:20
Speaker 1: lowest yards through the air only where he is. The
30:22
Speaker 1: Saints offense, which has not been good at all this year,
30:26
Speaker 1: then whole byo, we get it right now. They're playing
30:28
Speaker 1: against arguably one of the worst defenses in football in
30:30
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. It's just all points towards taking this Saints team.
30:34
Speaker 1: Because when I saw this line open, I was like, Okay,
30:36
Speaker 1: I could see it being three open, three and a
30:39
Speaker 1: half go, I'll bet all way up to five and
30:40
Speaker 1: a half. Now it's down to what four and half
30:43
Speaker 1: a vandal so it feels like it's starting to get
30:47
Speaker 1: into where it should be. And if you like if
30:49
Speaker 1: you're like me and you like the Saints, you're getting
30:51
Speaker 1: a good number here. So I still have no issue
30:53
Speaker 1: taking the Saints team. It's scary because it is where
30:56
Speaker 1: we are taking a Saints on the road with Winston,
30:59
Speaker 1: which is always you're just one bad decision away from
31:02
Speaker 1: pick six with Winston. But you have to trust Sean
31:05
Speaker 1: Payton and this number and think, Okay, they'll have the
31:07
Speaker 1: offensive right and they have a good enough defense to
31:09
Speaker 1: really slow down Gino Smith. This is a good number.
31:12
Speaker 1: We have a little bit of a spot here because
31:14
Speaker 1: we don't have that many games. I think we love
31:16
Speaker 1: the Bangles at six and a half. I think we
31:18
Speaker 1: love the Eagles at three. What is the contest number
31:22
Speaker 1: on the Packers right now? See then we are still
31:27
Speaker 1: three and a half in here? Do it that? We
31:30
Speaker 1: have to do it, all right? Putting that one in.
31:33
Speaker 1: Throw Bengals in, So Green Bay's nine minus nine and
31:35
Speaker 1: a half, all right, screw that. Yeah, you're scared of though,
31:38
Speaker 1: I get it. We're going with the Broncos at plus
31:41
Speaker 1: three and a half that we'll definitely five, just just
31:45
Speaker 1: because all the bio weeks, it feels like we kind
31:47
Speaker 1: of are pigeoned here. Like, we have to kind of
31:48
Speaker 1: take this one. We're going with the Bengals a plus
31:50
Speaker 1: six and a half. We're going with the Eagles at
31:53
Speaker 1: plus three, so that's three. So we got them three
31:55
Speaker 1: and a half at three and a half. So we
31:57
Speaker 1: gotta narrow this down Sunday. I'll put the Bears on here,
32:01
Speaker 1: I'll put the Bucks on here at minus twelve. Let's
32:03
Speaker 1: keep the Let's keep the Packers on here, Let's keep
32:06
Speaker 1: the Saints on here. Let's keep let's keep the Titans
32:11
Speaker 1: plus four and a half, the Finns plus two and
32:13
Speaker 1: a half, the Bux minus twelve, Packers minus seven and
32:18
Speaker 1: a half, Saints minus four and a half. We will
32:20
Speaker 1: choose to from those five. I love it. And again
32:25
Speaker 1: we might be playing with fire here going back to
32:27
Speaker 1: back Thursday games taking the Dogs. But that's too hard
32:31
Speaker 1: to pass on that number three and a half. Now
32:32
Speaker 1: it's down to one, Like, let's we'll step into it
32:35
Speaker 1: if that's what it takes. Sometimes that happens. That's just
32:38
Speaker 1: too good a number a pass on. I am not
32:41
Speaker 1: afraid of the flame, as as Emma love Well tells
32:45
Speaker 1: me on the Peloton, don't be afraid of the fire,
32:51
Speaker 1: all right, so you want to go through our Survivor picks,
32:53
Speaker 1: I'll tell you the teams we've taken, which is a
32:55
Speaker 1: great the Survivor Pool pick of the week. I really
33:06
Speaker 1: am a survivor. I got rid of the Rams. We've
33:09
Speaker 1: gotten rid of the Browns. We've gotten rid of the Panthers.
33:13
Speaker 1: We've gotten rid of the Bengals. We've gotten rid of
33:15
Speaker 1: the Vikings. We've gotten rid of the Colts, a bunch
33:18
Speaker 1: of teams we would never want to do. I can't
33:20
Speaker 1: believe we got rid of the Colts and the Vikings, like,
33:22
Speaker 1: thank God? Yeah, right, so Travis read. I read the
33:26
Speaker 1: Travis Read article atal dot Com. I actually made a
33:29
Speaker 1: chart of his chart. He has a chart that says, okay,
33:33
Speaker 1: right now, these are the teams, each team's percentage chance
33:37
Speaker 1: to win going forward. Because it helps you look ahead
33:40
Speaker 1: and say, okay, if I'm thinking about when do I
33:42
Speaker 1: want to use Arizona, when do I want to use
33:44
Speaker 1: the Rams? When do I want to use Buffalo? I
33:46
Speaker 1: can look ahead and say, oh, in week twelve, they
33:48
Speaker 1: have a seventy chance to win their game. I've diagrammed
33:52
Speaker 1: everything I've gone through and said, all right, these are
33:54
Speaker 1: the two teams that have the best chance to win
33:56
Speaker 1: each week. The problem is like this week fucking Arizona
34:01
Speaker 1: and Buffalo. Yeah, so Arizona, Like I got their schedule
34:06
Speaker 1: pulled up right now. They have Houston this week. If
34:08
Speaker 1: we don't use them, they have at Detroit Destumber nineteen.
34:14
Speaker 1: That's not bad to hold onto it. I mean again,
34:16
Speaker 1: it's on the road, it's a little scary, and it's
34:19
Speaker 1: also by the way, it's it's it's also um Cliff
34:23
Speaker 1: Kingsbury in the second half of the season. That's true. Actually,
34:28
Speaker 1: our man man Mitchell is just waiting for us to
34:30
Speaker 1: say that. I didn't even think of that. Uh yeah,
34:34
Speaker 1: that's that's true. I mean, let me pull up New
34:35
Speaker 1: England real quick though, because this, this honestly might be.
34:39
Speaker 1: This is it probably for taking them. I mean they're bad. No,
34:42
Speaker 1: New England is bad. Um. They they they're two and four,
34:47
Speaker 1: so they definitely need this win. That's why I like
34:49
Speaker 1: that you're saying to take this one, and this is it,
34:53
Speaker 1: Like we either take them now or um on my
34:57
Speaker 1: birthday January nine, they play at Miami, Like, do we
35:03
Speaker 1: really want to take them at Miami in week seven?
35:07
Speaker 1: Week eighteen? I don't think so. Is it like, is
35:10
Speaker 1: it gonna come? Are we gonna are we gonna have
35:14
Speaker 1: six figures in play and put it on the Patriots
35:17
Speaker 1: in week team and they're playing in Miami, which historically,
35:20
Speaker 1: even when Brady, they would blow games and they would
35:23
Speaker 1: lose games down there. I mean, what was that two
35:25
Speaker 1: years ago? They were seventeen point favorites and they went
35:27
Speaker 1: down to Miami and they lost on that flukey like
35:30
Speaker 1: hell Mary drinking. So yeah, if if you're like us,
35:34
Speaker 1: we're sitting here, we're either gonna take New England or
35:36
Speaker 1: the Cardinals just week just to get rid of them,
35:38
Speaker 1: because this is by far their best matchups, both of them. Um,
35:43
Speaker 1: I feel honestly, I feel better taking the Cardinals just
35:47
Speaker 1: because it feels more safe, like we know will win.
35:49
Speaker 1: Where New England it's again it's Mac Jones, like the
35:53
Speaker 1: kid is at rookie that makes stupid mistakes, so a
35:56
Speaker 1: little scary. But if we if we want to get
35:58
Speaker 1: rid of New England, this is a prime spot to do.
36:00
Speaker 1: So I would rather take the Cardinals, all right, I'll
36:04
Speaker 1: put them in now, though, putting them in because I
36:08
Speaker 1: like to set it and forget it, so I don't
36:09
Speaker 1: have to like stress on Sunday about it. All right,
36:13
Speaker 1: we have done our survivor. We have narrowed down our field.
36:17
Speaker 1: We have done our big balls better the week. We
36:20
Speaker 1: have taken our sharp call. We have reminded people of
36:23
Speaker 1: our Scooch roulette, the honorary Scooch Roulette. You like the Packers,
36:28
Speaker 1: I like the Eagles. Um, we need to give people
36:34
Speaker 1: some kind of money line around Robin Parlay. I mean
36:40
Speaker 1: it's ugly, it is. I feel better though, just because
36:42
Speaker 1: last week every favorite was winning and went out right. Um,
36:46
Speaker 1: only two dogs one out right, I believe it was
36:48
Speaker 1: or No. Three concluding Monday night. So or I guess
36:52
Speaker 1: I'm for getting the Jaguars too. The Jaguars went out right,
36:56
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders went out right, the Cardinals went out right,
36:58
Speaker 1: and then the Tennessee Titans. It So it's the same
37:02
Speaker 1: thing this week, where you know I always go towards
37:05
Speaker 1: the home dogs. So just first glance, like I did
37:09
Speaker 1: a couple of these earlier in the week. I did
37:10
Speaker 1: Tennessee with the Bengals and a couple of them like
37:13
Speaker 1: I did two teamers. Um, now looking at it, I
37:16
Speaker 1: still like those two. How do you not throw in
37:19
Speaker 1: Miami as a short home dog, and like I I'm
37:24
Speaker 1: scared now to do it, but I really like the
37:26
Speaker 1: Colts money line. But now everything is something about what
37:28
Speaker 1: Chris said. It makes me a little nervous where it's
37:30
Speaker 1: like maybe that's why this is, you know, plus one
37:33
Speaker 1: seventy plus one eighty on the money line with the Colts,
37:36
Speaker 1: it's they're sucking me in a little bit here. So um,
37:40
Speaker 1: as we sit here today, I can only really give
37:43
Speaker 1: you like three or four that I love. Like I
37:45
Speaker 1: love Miami, I love the Giants, I love Tennessee, and
37:48
Speaker 1: I love the Bengals. Um I'd really have to think
37:51
Speaker 1: about that fifth one, just because you know, I mean,
37:54
Speaker 1: I love taking these big dogs. I don't see a
37:57
Speaker 1: world where the Bears can win. I don't see a
37:58
Speaker 1: world with the line and skin upset. I don't see
38:01
Speaker 1: a world where the Houston Texans gonna upset. So it's
38:04
Speaker 1: kind of a downer a week where these big dogs
38:06
Speaker 1: aren't really that alive. So go with four, Just do
38:10
Speaker 1: Four'll force the fifth win in there. I can't help it.
38:13
Speaker 1: I loved I love that and underdogs. But yeah, if
38:16
Speaker 1: I'm people are betting them right now, just go with
38:18
Speaker 1: those four, so Tennessee, the Giants Miami, and then we're
38:23
Speaker 1: gonna round it out with the Colts. Why don't have
38:28
Speaker 1: the Giants? You mean the Eagles? Yeah, yeah, I don't
38:32
Speaker 1: know why to keep on the Giants in there. I
38:34
Speaker 1: hate the Giants. Yeah, it's terrible, like they're everything in
38:39
Speaker 1: the world, shall tell you bet the other side we
38:43
Speaker 1: talked about, actually, I still love that over. There'll probably
38:45
Speaker 1: be that might be my over. And convinced me the
38:48
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers and the Giants just because I I love
38:51
Speaker 1: short field games and both quarterbacks love to turn the
38:53
Speaker 1: ball over. That feels like a really good short field game.
38:56
Speaker 1: So if you're looking at the Giants Carolina game, I
38:58
Speaker 1: have no issue just taking the and stay away from
39:00
Speaker 1: the sides. Convince me, of course. Is the show that
39:03
Speaker 1: we do on at Action Network HQ Sunday mornings for
39:05
Speaker 1: Living in Eastern Thanks for listening to The Favorites podcast.
39:09
Speaker 1: I'm Chad Millman, He's Simon Hunter. You can download it
39:12
Speaker 1: from Apple, from Spotify wherever you get your podcasts. Rate us,
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Speaker 1: review us, like us, love us until Tuesday. Love you