Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / 2026 Bowman Chrome - Week 1 Pitcher Price Check!

Transcript

2026 Bowman Chrome - Week 1 Pitcher Price Check! · The Scout and The Speculator

• Jaba: Hello everybody, welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator Podcast. This is your host, Jabba Cards, joined as always by Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, but more importantly known as JGB underscore cards underscore. ⁓ find them on Instagram, whatnot. All the ⁓ sites near and dear to our hearts under that name. ⁓ has always this Podcast is brought to you by Prospect Pulse. That is prospectpulse v1.com. The best place for all of your Bowman investing, collecting, researching needs. So today Jeremy and I have a list we received from our quant, also my dad, ⁓ who pulled some data from Prospect Pulse for us. underscore_underscore_: Hmm. Jaba: And we're gonna talk through it. We're going through the top ten pitchers in Bowman Chrome by price. ⁓ today is Monday, September 14th. This date is as of this morning. So five days post release. ⁓ you know, nothing super crazy here, but wanted to get out and maybe make this a weekly check-in on prices and we can all kind of follow it together, see who we think is high, see who we think was low, and you know, go from there. So underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: First, ⁓ mild surprise at number one. We got Cinjay at a hundred, Zazueta at ninety three. That's one and two by a country mile, which I think we would have expected, but maybe not in that order. I don't know. What what do you think about those? Where underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yep. Yeah, I would have flipped the order and thought it wouldn't be so high for Cinche, but the important of that and we're gonna see it when we talk about hitters too. ⁓ with number one being far and away the most, is they're both redemptions. So that is worth noting. ⁓ maybe redemptions aren't hitting as much or we're not seeing as much ⁓ turnover of those sales. It could kind of be a only have a couple examples compared to these other guys where base autos are Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: rapidly exchanging hands. So I do think this Cinche, if he was live, would be lower than the Zazueta. ⁓ a hundred bucks for a base auto is still a lot, but you're getting Dodger tax, you're getting clearly the best guy tax. ⁓ so that kind of makes sense. Those two to be the top two, I think, for me right now. Jaba: Right, just ⁓ whack That's a good Yeah, for sure. And then we see a major dip. Number three is kind of in a tier by himself. ⁓ which again, looking at kind of the names we have. I I I think it makes sense that this guy's kind of in his own little price range. That is Brandon Clark, the flamethrowing lefty for the Cardinals at thirty nine dollars. I mean, personally I still think that that's a little high, but with the I mean, if you're throwing one ⁓ three, you're gonna be expensive regardless of you know, kind of the numbers, the injury history, whatever, I would expect him to settle in around twenty five. I don't know if you agree. With that. I think maybe in the twenties, similar to kind of Brody Hopkins. not today, Brody Hopkins, obviously. But underscore_underscore_: Yeah, he ⁓ just he had he did just have a really good start in double A playoffs, ⁓ Clark. So I mean by no means is it like a Cam Schlitzer like perfect scenario of throwing in the MLB playoffs and having your first come out at the same time. But that was definitely on people's feeds who follow prospects at like the release day for Clark. So that probably helped Juice a little bit as well. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: But ⁓ if he can show that he can start and kinda keep going through the ranks, get four, five, six innings now at a time, prove he's healthy, still I think he was up to one ⁓ two in that outing, sit upper nineties from the left side. Yeah, yeah. But that'll all depend on how he kinda goes. So I mean, realistically, even thirty nine for like release, like if you told me it was higher, I would have believed you. Jaba: Yeah. Yep. underscore_underscore_: Just knowing how people like velocity and performance right away. but yeah. That kinda again kinda checks in with the one, two, and three. So that's kinda who we pigeon hold as the best three in the product. So makes sense. Jaba: Yep. Yep, that's kind of our you know clear top three there. then we kind of get into a glob. Numbers four through seven are all in the fifteen to nineteen dollar range. Number four, sleeper we both like Talon Haley at nineteen dollars. you know, I think underscore_underscore_: I think there's some comfortability there. He threw stateside in a DSL dominant product. ⁓ 20 years old, right in A-ball, 25 draft guys. Stuff is good. We've talked about him. I did purchase the first one on eBay ever for 13 bucks, so I'm winning there. ⁓ gotta keep my margins. I'm not surprised people are in on him. ⁓ we have talked about him. Jaba: Yeah. He's up. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: So that kind of I'm I'm not saying we influence that market, but he's it one who stood out to us. ⁓ and I think as we kind of look down these next couple of names, it's kinda like that makes sense. Like Kyle Carr next at seventeen, like he's a Yankee guy. In triple A, close to making it, seventeen bucks average for a base auto. Checks out and same with Sean Paul Lina at fifteen bucks. Another Yankee now Yankees fans like their prospects. ⁓ Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Wellington Arasenia at sixteen, former Met, so you can take him. ⁓ I don't know if that like checks where you would have thought him to have been. Jaba: It's higher than I would have thought, but at the same time he was unbelievable in twenty twenty five. I don't think he should be priced like this, but I think maybe some people are not hand waving struggles in twenty six, but I I think people might be saying, Okay, well, here's one of the few guys who has a full season ⁓ under its belt with great results. Again, I am not buying it. I probably wouldn't even be buying at half the price at eight bucks. But I I I do see it. I don't think it's insane. Obviously things are still inflated. I think they'll come down. I think they'll settle underscore_underscore_: Right. Jaba: You know, right around the double digit mark. But yeah, out of the you know, five through seven, Carr, Arasania, and Linion, ⁓ none of those guys really move me. I think all those guys will continue to settle. If I was gonna buy one, I think it would be Carr, like you said, just because of the proximity to the majors, and he's with the Yankees. ⁓ but I'm fine sitting on the sideline for all those. ⁓ then we kind of switch demographics here. Those were three guys that are a little bit older. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: Further along, we go right into eight nine ten with Andre Hidalgo, Keno Martinez, and Arginus Cayama. ⁓ first two are eleven bucks, last one is at ten bucks. What do we think? underscore_underscore_: ⁓ so Hildago obviously already has some pump. People like him as kind of the top DSL arm in the product. ⁓ I literally four minutes ago just got a base auto at eight bucks on best offer with a dollar shipping. Like I'm gonna take that all day and add to the stash. ⁓ really small sample size of stuff, has big stuff. So did ⁓ Sad Bell Delzine last year. Small sample size, good stuff. Read between the lines and it worked out well. Not saying he's sad be all, but he is left-handed. But he's also in the AL East. and then you have Martinez and Kayama. They're both Giants guys. Both were in twenty six Bowman with color only. ⁓ a couple they're further along than Hidalgo, stateside, both of them. Numbers are kind of pedestrian. Stuff is really good though. So obviously for a top ten, we have to find ten names. They round it out. ⁓ just it truly isn't a pitcher heavy product. Not that it ever is, but I think you have your clear Jaba: Yeah, a lot to like there. underscore_underscore_: One and twos, you clear three, and then like Talon Haley's probably I mean, just pricing wise i and talent wise probably is your four. I don't think there's many sleepers. I think the notion of can't buy pitchers and profit on pitchers isn't there anymore. I think where's people have realized like you can do this with arms. And I think it's a good thing that people aren't afraid of an entire demographic and Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: I mean a at least here's ten, I don't know how many arms there are total, but a good bit. Yeah. Jaba: Like fifteen maybe. ⁓ yeah, I mean, another point, it's like, okay, well like Kyle cars at seventeen, you know, I'm thinking about guys, you know, last I saw Zach Root was right at twenty bucks. You know, I I I think you look at the broader picture and you kinda take off the blinders of just this product, you see the other pictures floating around twenty, it's like, Okay, there are much better options out there. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Exactly. Jaba: You know, I think Hidalgo at eleven. If you're looking at the eleven dollar options you can justify it. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Jaba: But you know, for the fifteen to seventeen dollar guys, they are just so many better arms. You might have to spend a couple more dollars, but it's literally like right there. but yeah, I I mean I I I think if I had to rank them as buys, I mean, one and two is just tough this early on. I think the great point what you had about Sinja being a redemption, therefore the data's probably lagging a little bit. ⁓ I hadn't really thought of it that way. but yeah, I mean I I still think underscore_underscore_: Yeah. And Yeah. For sure. Jaba: Zizuetta's definitely the top arm in this product for me. I don't think it's very close. Clark's growing on me with the recent performance. And ⁓ you know, kind of the more I look at Haley and that, you know, whole story between his arm, having cancer. I think that the developmental runway there is nice and long. So that that that's the guy I'm looking long and hard at. and then, you know, basically all the other names, underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: Just kinda not even thinking about those are just the names where my eyes gloss over and I scroll through So underscore_underscore_: I'm yeah, I'm just I'm looking, I'm on my phone, you guys can't see me, Jabba can. Just looking at autos and like of Sin Cheg right now on card ladder. And like the last couple like kind of dwarf our number on him too. Like 220 for a base redemption. 155 for a base redemption. True blue? Is this a true blue? True blue did 300. Like some of these numbers don't number. Blue Ray Wave did two hundred and a base did one fifty seven dollars and fifty cents most recently. So I mean it's all over the place. Like that hundred dollars is probably shy of what he's really doing right now. But I just don't think people are selling the redemptions right now, realistically. Jaba: Yeah, no. Yeah. Yeah, I I I mean, I think sometimes there are definitely steals to be had with redemptions. So I I I think naturally, I mean human beings, we want that instant gratification, especially knowing how Topps operates, you know, knowing that the fact that there's a redemption means, you know, we're waiting on this guy to sign it. I think it's a little better now than in like twenty six Bowman, where it's like the beginning of the season. So you're like, these aren't getting signed until September. Like I had some Roll Debritos once. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Without a doubt. Jaba: Sanchez's that arrived today that I redeemed right at release. ⁓ which is fine. You know, these guys have lives. I'll allow it. but I do think, you know, people see that and they're like, I I'm not waiting four months unless it's, you know, some massive card. so. ⁓ yeah, I think that just about wraps up our pitcher episode. We're gonna record a hitter one right after this. ⁓ Victoria just texted me. She ⁓ saw the Bowmania twenty twenty seven flyer. She said, I like learning about your travel plans via Instagram. so that'll be a fun one, ⁓ coming up here. But ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Yep. Yeah. Nice. Mm-hmm. Jaba: Yeah, looking forward to talking hitters, looking forward to Bowmania. ⁓ lot of exciting stuff going on in the baseball card world. So, ⁓ you got any words before we sign off, or you good? underscore_underscore_: ⁓ just as we continue to kind of dig in, we don't have we're we're getting more data to kind of make your decisions and buying decisions off of. Try to find a prospect you feel comfortable in terms of not on field comps but off field comps, of like, ⁓ this is like the d make it where the profile is kind of the same. If you ever or don't have a direct comp to go off of. ⁓ for some of these DSL guys I'm going I was buying Sad Bell Delzine. I think I thought Delzine was better than he was. I thought he was undervalued last year. I bought a bunch of them. I knew doing five to six dollar base autos is fine. Did I think they were gonna get to thirty-five, forty dollars this or this quickly? No. But just knowing like, all right, somebody like that was available for five dollars a month after release. Just kind of keeping like past performances of other guys and where they are now in the back of my head while making some buys. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: has kind of helped me be like, okay, this isn't a bad buy, like I'm comfortable here. Let's go do this. Let's do that. So Jaba: Yeah. And you know, to close that point, not to advocate and say, you know, just throw all your money at five dollar guys or load up on five dollar guys, that's not what I'm saying. But if you like a guy that's that cheap, I mean if you're listing a guy on eBay that was in a Bowman in the last twelve months that is currently playing baseball underscore_underscore_: Right. Jaba: I don't think you're gonna get less than three or four dollars for it. So I mean, if you really like a guy and his base auto's at five bucks, you really can't lose. ⁓ I think the worst case is you have five dollars tied up. so, you know, I think those guys are the ones where if you really believe in ⁓ you know, you can kinda get a war chest gone. And if things turn sideways, you're really not losing any money. The only loss is kind of the opportunity cost, but even then it's just not a serious issue. All right. underscore_underscore_: No doubt. Jaba: So we're going to tap out there. As always, thank you guys for listening. And let's go Mets. Alright, talk to you guys soon. Bye-bye. Marker. Did you see the eBay message I texted you? Yeah. I didn't wanna interrupt the episode and kinda throw us off. But I was like I I was like I gotta get this. underscore_underscore_: Yeah, I did. Should've. I saw a video a photo come through from you and I'm like, ⁓ boy. Was dropped off this morning. Should be ⁓ that's all we needed. Phew! I I I genuinely thought that wasn't gonna go. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Like get get shipped. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I I thought there was no chance. I think we b I think we both thought there was no chance and just didn't wanna say it. ⁓ Alright. Yeah, I thought that was good. I kinda like just like it's nice having a f free flowing conversation, but it's also we kinda have the template in front of us. underscore_underscore_: That makes me happy. Yeah. Crisp and to the point. This this I feel too is like now that we have actual numbers, now we can actually get more scout and speculator too. Where before it's kind of us doing a little bit of both. We're like Alright, now Job has actually got numbers that he can play with and see where it's gonna settle and have some multipliers going and stuff like that. Like, now I think we can now I think we can actually get into like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. You can talk about the actual baseball. underscore_underscore_: our tit not saying neither of us should do the other one, but now I think like we can really like like Right, exactly. Like now this was all preseason and now the product's here and now it's time to go like full Rain Man mode on ⁓ Jaba: Where I yeah, it's like being put into practice. Yeah. I I I Yeah. The only issue here, ⁓ with the hitters is Dave sent it his two texts. I d I I think he just kinda kept our guys separate. ⁓ Well he said add in eighteen and nineteen year olds. So I guess everyone above is seventeen or younger. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. I think he split, didn't he? Luis Francisco checks these all check as being very young. Yeah. That that all checks. Yes. Jaba: No, I I guess it's the D S L I I don't know. We'll just talk about it. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ I mean are they? I don't see any non DSL ⁓ Joni L. Hernandez wasn't DSL, was he? Jaba: I don't think so. I mean the bottom guys are all full of these. underscore_underscore_: And Luis Fernandez isn't Luis Hernandez isn't either, so it's they're they're all seventeen, I bet. I mean let's just pull up our sheet real quick. How old is Jadier Sanchez Suarez? Jaba: Right. I think I it might be seventeen though. I don't know. Yeah. Or were I think Juan Poros might be eighteen. underscore_underscore_: AL East Torres is eighteen. Maybe you just lumped him in. Jaba: Yeah. All right. I'll I'll just kinda sped ⁓ as we go. underscore_underscore_: I mean just put just put Juan Torres down into the eighteen, nineteen year olds. Well who are the other names? Let's just go through it quick. Nunez. Nunez is seventeen. Serrano is a NL East. He's ⁓ seventeen. Jaba: Yeah. Serrano as a child. underscore_underscore_: Why do we know Kolomay? Is he seventeen? Yeah. ⁓ the two Brewers guys, I believe, are both seventeen. Yep. Seventeen, seventeen. Joniell? I d should I have bought that true gold for three fifty? Seventeen. Yeah. Jaba: I'd bet I'd Is he? Probably, yeah. Yeah. He had me buy orange for like seven hundred yesterday, so underscore_underscore_: Holy fuck. True? Jaba: ⁓ you get to roll. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ yeah. People are talking about getting an Airbnb in Tampa for Bomania. I that'd be the move instead of a hotel. Jaba: Yeah. ⁓ it'll be weird 'cause I'm with Dave. I don't want to bring my seventy three year old father to a Airbnb. I'm not sure he'd love that. underscore_underscore_: It's all adults though. Like Langs and Beard and T T. We'll see. We got time. Maybe maybe there's neighboring properties. Okay. ⁓ Jaba: True. Yeah. We'll see. We'll figure it out. Yeah, we hope. all right, you good? underscore_underscore_: yeah s was there did he send other lists or no? Jaba: I think it was just the pitchers and then the hitters. Yeah. He was gonna send an older hitter list, but we can do that tomorrow or something. And then maybe tomorrow we do that and a ⁓ prospect b or portfolio pals. underscore_underscore_: That's it. Okay. Perfect. Dave. Say it again. My wife's texting. Jaba: Maybe tomorrow we do the other hitter list he's gonna send and a portfolio pells. underscore_underscore_: Yes. What's the other one? That he's sending. Jaba: like college hitters or like older hitters from Bowman Crumb. It's basically the potential sleepers or old heads. The Yonks. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ okay. Well now we can do a portfolio pals with just all three guys now that we have the Clark is gonna ship, the Luis is right here, and we have this, so Jaba: Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I figure we do this and then get these two up and then are I mean, are you around tomorrow? Alright, so we'll do a pals and another tomorrow. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Do you want real quick before we start, how much all in was a Solarte and how much was a Clark? Jaba: I don't pay taxes, which is nice. No, there's definitely something that I should be doing with that, but underscore_underscore_: ⁓ you don't? You have an L L C Jaba: Yeah, I do. Clark, 120. Yes. Yeah, because it was 119.99, free shipping, no tech. And then ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Like that's it. Just a flat one twenty. Nice. Jaba: I Serrano was like two ⁓ six. Yeah, two ⁓ five eighty nine I'm just gonna. underscore_underscore_: two ⁓ six, so Lord Day. Okay. When did you buy that? Jaba: Solarte september ten. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Okay. Clark's probably the twelfth. Thirteenth. Okay. Do you have the Clark card in front of you? Jaba: Thirteenth. underscore_underscore_: What's a serial number out of one fifty? Jaba: one one three four. underscore_underscore_: And what was Solarte? Jaba: Sixteen, hang on. Yeah, sixteen. It actually looks gradable too. I mean and that's also one where even if it's a toss-up I'm fine throwing it in at eighty bucks. underscore_underscore_: Cool. I agree. People said ⁓ some of my buddies said it might be a little heavy top to bottom I think. But I don't think it's enough to knock it. But I have the tab op I I just filled in the tab fully. Jaba: ⁓ at all. In my thank you. In my experience, you know, they're definitely strict on the left to right, but top bottom you can kinda sneak through. Top top bottom you get more grace. You get more grace with top bottom. They say it's fifty five, forty five for both kinds of centering, but in my experience it's more like sixty forty. underscore_underscore_: And it's not like that bad. That like that poorly off. Say what? Cool. Jaba: It's like I'll I'll go crazy on like the left to right and then as long as the top bottom like doesn't look retarded, I'll just check that out. Do you want any Neon stuff? underscore_underscore_: No, not at the price that they're going for, I'm sure. Jaba: I don't even think they're that high. I just have a bunch I wanna sell. I just need to make some money. Not even make money, just get money. True Blue. underscore_underscore_: Like what? Much is that. Jaba: ⁓ I don't know, four hundred bucks. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. See I should have just bought ⁓ at release. Jaba: I have a true blue, green sapphire, and orange wave. underscore_underscore_: Why aren't you fancy? Why aren't you holding those? Jaba: I'm going to, but I do need to recoup some money here. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ Because you're spending like a madman on this release? Jaba: I haven't even bought that much stuff. I just need I mean now that I don't have a job, I just need to sell some stuff. While I wait for my PSA orders to pay my rent. I shouldn't have redeemed the Arquette Blue, I should've just fucking sold it. underscore_underscore_: That's fair. Yeah. I mean you're gonna get that quick. Those those come through. His stuff is quick. Jaba: Yeah, I'll probably get like ten percent more. I guess that's what I'm telling myself. underscore_underscore_: Right. Jaba: And he's playing okay. Everyone's like, ⁓ he's so hot and it's like it's like an eight hundred OPS over his last thirty games. underscore_underscore_: Thanks, Brooke Ivanish. Jaba: He's a good guy. He's just a little erratic. underscore_underscore_: Seems very volatile. It'd be nice if my I mean I'm I'm waiting on a Sam Peterson refractor auto and a Coi James Pack Fractor auto. Something tells me those coys aren't ever gonna be made. I don't know. Jaba: Yeah, he's not. Jesus. Why? 'Cause there's less of an excuse when it's like a American guy. Yeah, that's fair. underscore_underscore_: Yes. I should just text Koi and say, Hey, did you sign a card that looked like this? Jaba: I I was gonna say I feel like y you can just fucking balance underscore_underscore_: I should have ⁓ sign the redemption card. Like the use ⁓ Jaba: What's up? Sorry. Flash I was taking a bath. So I had to get my phone charger. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ I was saying like this, I should I should have him sign this card. Like the the physical redemption. Jaba: He ⁓ underscore_underscore_: I'm gonna go live tomorrow morning and just sell a stack of random shit. Nothing you want, but like all like numbered Eli, all like good stuff for whatnot. Like Jaba: Yeah. I do need to start doing whatnot again. underscore_underscore_: I ⁓ well you you're in wedding season though, so Yeah. Jaba: Well, I'm done now. Like now now it's like actual like two months until heart surgery just rests and begins. underscore_underscore_: Like that's like a that's like a fifteen dollar card. Hector Rodriguez two ninety nine mini diamond. That'll go for like three dollars tomorrow. Jaba: You should just list it on eBay. Hope he does something this week. underscore_underscore_: It'll probably get binned. Wahia alloy leaf auto out of ninety nine? Josh Hammond Refractor Bowman Best Auto. Jaba: It's crazy how fucking cheap those go for. Yeah. Like I I get why it's not close, but I I feel like it's underscore_underscore_: Best. Yeah. I mean there's definitely is Victor Figaroa good? We'll get rid of some of his color non-autos. Jaba: One of my other all my friends are giving me shit for the Bo Mania post. Another friend who doesn't do th they're just like posting the vendors. underscore_underscore_: What was it? Jaba: One my friends who doesn't even do cards, ⁓ texts me, Bo Mania headliner, huh? You're like Card John Summit. underscore_underscore_: Are they is he posting it for everybody? Bob, like on his own account? Jaba: No, there's a Bowmania page. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ so Bob tweeting out Delang's was just to defeat Delang's ego? Gotcha. Jaba: Yes. I think they realize he's a little autistic. ⁓ wow, everyone's gonna be there. Woogle and Versh. underscore_underscore_: Hmm. I don't know any of them. Jaba: I should have just said that you're at my table. I fucked that up, sorry. underscore_underscore_: I don't have a table, I'm gonna be a freelancer. No, I don't wanna pay for a table. You and Dahl already have two tables, and Dahl doesn't own baseball cards. Dahl is like da Darren Rovell of the card industry world where he talks about ⁓ and doesn't own any. Just kidding, doll. I know you have cards. Jaba: Do you want one? True. I have the most likes of any of the recent posts besides the Langs. underscore_underscore_: How often do you are you with talk to doll? Jaba: Not that much, honestly. I I probably don't talk to ⁓ enough. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ really? Fair enough. Ugh Alright you ready to rock? I think we spent more time off in between than we had. Jaba: ⁓ it's gonna be close. I feel like that's our problem 'cause we're both chatty guys. We just underscore_underscore_: Yeah, but we kept that to under twenty minutes, so that was good. Jaba: Yeah, that was good. I noticed myself getting a little verbose at the end. Sometimes I kinda just repeat back what you said. I'm like, I feel like I could do without that. ⁓ Alright, pulling the list up and then we're good. underscore_underscore_: Huh. It's okay. ⁓ Talon Haley has a day and seven hours left. Jaba: ⁓ Dave sent me there's a bubblegum ending in three days, so maybe if we don't get the red we pivot to that. I feel like if we get the red There's no need for that. underscore_underscore_: Yes. Yeah. Correct. Jaba: But underscore_underscore_: There's a true black non auto for a hundred bucks. Starting bed. Jaba: I like Dave getting all funny. He's like, maybe I should buy it. JK L O L underscore_underscore_: I almost said something like, Good one, Dave. Just to be like I just thought it would be funny, but let's put an offer in on this Tallon Haley base auto for eleven bucks. The dollar shipping. That dollar shipping makes such a difference. Jaba: Yeah, and the no dude, the no taxes. Like that that Yoswar I bought for Dave, the red wave that was forty six hundred. If I was doing the math in my head, that would have been like three hundred and fifty dollars of taxes. underscore_underscore_: I don't I get taxes. Yeah. Huh. Damn. Who set up your LLC? Jaba: ⁓ myself. underscore_underscore_: Was it easy? Jaba: Yeah, I basically just spent a day I think I was sick or something, 'cause it was when I still had a job, but I think I was sick or like had the day off and it was like a gross day and I was like, I need to do something productive today. So I basically just had like Google AI on one tab. And the LLC stuff on another and I was basically just like plugging stuff in, being like, Explain this to me like I'm a mentally retarded eight year old and like what to put. Yeah. Severely developmentally disabled if we're gonna play it. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ Or twenty eight year old. Yeah. Delayed. What ⁓ how much did it cost? Jaba: Five hundred bucks in mass annual. underscore_underscore_: Forever or per year? Jaba: Yeah, but think about how much tax money you're saving. underscore_underscore_: I don't know. I don't know that I buy enough to do that. Jaba: What about when you drive to a card show, you can expense the gas? underscore_underscore_: I I expense that anyway. On tax write off. I do mileage. You can do that regularly. I I'd I tr I Jaba: I don't know. I I mean like ⁓ honestly like if you ever see see something big where you're like that's gonna be a fat tax bill, I'm fine, just buy it for you and I can either mail it or hand it off. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah, I guess that makes sense even now even with the Serrano, even though that would have been an extra like twenty five dollars. I tell people the story of how I texted it to you and you bought it right away. Everyone goes, What an asshole I go, No, no, like it's okay. Like I bait them and then they go and it's funny. Okay. Jaba: Yeah, ⁓ it it's Yeah. Ha ha ha. What an asshole. Piece of shit. underscore_underscore_: Can you believe he did this to me guys? Alright. Ready what you are. Jaba: I'm gonna start getting now. Alright. Ready now go. Hello everybody. Welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. This is our second episode we are filming today. We just put out a pitcher update that'll probably go today this afternoon, and then this one will probably go out Tuesday morning. To you guys. We'll see how we're feeling. ⁓ this is one of your hosts, Jabba Cards. As always, joined by my friend, confidant, and perfect game evaluator, Jeremy Brown, also known as JGB underscore cards underscore on all those beloved platforms. As always, today's podcast is brought to you by Prospect Pulse. That is prospectpulse v1.com, the absolute. Best place for all of your prospect research, investing, collecting, tracking needs. I use it literally every day. can't recommend that enough. Yeah. So we're gonna get right into the hitters. We are looking at prices five days out. Today's the Monday after release, ⁓ last Wednesday. ⁓ September 14th. This will probably go out on the fifteenth. Doubt much will change and it's more just a conversation based on the loose prices and not, you know, hey, is this a great buy or sell at this price? 'Cause we all know they're gonna come down a bit. ⁓ but I think it'll be fun to track this weekly ⁓ for the next bit, kind of just talk about it. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: Let's see if the power rankings shuffle a little bit and just kind of see where guys land. ⁓ leading off, I'm a bit surprised Luis Hernandez has won. His average is 300 bucks. you know, I'm not s that shocked that he's the number one guy. I think a month ago I would have said he was the number one guy. ⁓ then he kinda had a week showing at single A as a 17-year-old. while, you know, Angel Gomez got a lot of shine. ⁓ you know, he was my number one guy and he's been unbelievable. But that was all DSL. So not to take away from that, but I do think the Luis Hernandez hate campaign has gotten a little out of control. Maybe hate campaign isn't the right word, but I I think he's being underrated severely. So him being number one's a nice surprise, as Jeremy said in our last episode. ⁓ with Sinche being the number one guy, Hernandez has a lot of redemptions. So those Yeah. So the volume of transactions is gonna be a bit lower. ⁓ so his price will probably remain inflated for a little bit 'cause there's like a lag in data. ⁓ checking in. underscore_underscore_: Right. A lot and weird ones too. Jaba: Number two, Francisco Renteria, right below him at $252. Again, high, but you know, the top three is kind of what we thought the top three would be. Rounded out by Angel Gomez, way down at 170. You got any thoughts on that top three? underscore_underscore_: I'm trying to look and see like I feel like the renteria is high. Like I know like Max Clark's were short printed the other day the other year in 2023. And I don't remember seeing a lot of his base autos for sale, honestly. Like card ladder, you have green, redemption for the refractor, a base, a redemption for a refractor, a green, a speckle, a speckle, pack fractor, purple. Jaba: Yeah, it's high. It's definitely underscore_underscore_: Like you're seeing a gold ink sold for twenty eight hundred, a blue rayway was five fifty. Like the base autos are kind of far and few between and when they do pop, they get bought up pretty quick on best offers. So I'm not saying they're short printed, but I am surprised. I mean, we do know Phillies fans like their guys. Renteria has arguably the best stats of anybody in this product. If if that's all you're doing is looking at the backs of baseball cards, he probably is the most impressive. ⁓ Luis, I think Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Obviously the redemption is bolstering that right now. I don't know if it's people are afraid to sell the redemptions until or I guess people are afraid to buy the redemptions until they show that they're live. And then you kind of see an influx and the price will drop correspondingly or what it is, but I know like base autos are right in between that two fifty, three hundred range. But I like the multipliers aren't there for refractors, aren't doing that much more. And get the speckles for like four or five hundred. Jaba: Yeah. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ we got our true blue in the mix for portfolio pals come our next episode. ⁓ but obviously those are the three. I think I don't know what's more surprising though, like rent renteria being that high, or of those three that Gomez is the lowest by like almost a hundred dollars in like half of Hernandez. So Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I I I think that that's gotta just be related to Hernandez being a redemption. I mean Rentoria's not a redemption, but maybe you can just say okay, there's more Phillies fans than Royals fans. Although Royals fans did do that thing where they voted all their guys into the All-Star game like a decade ago. I have a I have a strong hatred for the mid two thousand twenty tens Royals as you would imagine as a Mets fan. ⁓ no offense to any of those guys personally, but I hate them. ⁓ it's interesting because number four is Wandy Asian. ⁓ he's kind of there's underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yep. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Jaba: a cluster of four guys that are well over a hundred and then after four there's a pretty steep drop off. ⁓ I'm a little surprised to see a CN in that kind of top tier premium pricing at $143, but underscore_underscore_: Uh-huh. Jaba: I think it's just a met thing. He is pretty redemption heavy as well. you know, thinking back to last year, Ellian Pena was I would say just as hyped, if not more hyped. He was basically a sixty dollar auto, you know, over the winter, kind of crept towards forty, shot up to the mid fifties, settled around forty, I would expect the same for a CN. ⁓ you know, I'd be a buyer on him when the market settles probably at fifty bucks. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Uh-huh. Yeah. Jaba: so I think that there's a pretty steep drop coming there and you can kind of just say that that's you know met market and redemptions. Number five is kind of on an island by himself, Johensie Colame. He's at eighty bucks. So sixty-three below the guy above him. ⁓ I'm a little surprised he's this high, but underscore_underscore_: Yeah, he's got some hype though. Like people are buying him, seeking him out, like really good bat speed. Again, we said it was violent. Right. Yeah, but like that eighty average I guess is kind of like 'cause I know we've seen I saw a base auto or a true blue on Whatnot sell for two twenty. I saw and I know two of ⁓ sold on eBay for two seventy and three hundred. So like the multiplier ain't multiplying there off that eighty either. Jaba: ⁓ yeah. Yeah, I d I don't disagree with it. Mm. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: So like I don't think those true blues went incredibly cheap. They were good buys, all three of them I would say. But eighty doesn't feel like it corresponds correctly to those numbers. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I think it goes back to kinda something I was pounding you know, pounding the drum on before release, you know, kinda saying, Okay, everyone says not to buy in the first few weeks. Definitely true for bass autos. Bass autos will crash no matter what, I don't care who you are. you know, I would just bet anything any of these guys above, you know, thirty dollars, they will probably go down by fifty percent. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Hmm. At some point. It just is what it is. Jaba: By, you know, mid-October. ⁓ that's just what it is. But I don't think that the premium color for these guys really dips after release. I think it does, but it's definitely not as severe. I think that the multiples, like you said, are gonna be off where the base autos are high and then the multiples are all condensed, you know, above it. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Jaba: And then I think with time, those will go down a tiny bit, but it will not kind of be correspondent to you know, the color. I think, you know, Colomb, you said they were going at two twenty, two seventy-five. You know, he's a guy where I think he's a forty to fifty dollar base auto, which is kinda that five to six X multiple we see for blues. So I think, you know, the blues kinda line up with where it'll land and it's just kind of waiting for the bases and I'd imagine refractors. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: to come back to earth a little. I think true blue is where it starts to be like, okay, yeah, these prices are a bit elevated, but it's not stupidly high. ⁓ but yeah, I'll kind of wrap up that rant slash impassioned speech. underscore_underscore_: Yep. I just sent you something real quick. I don't think it's a buy, but you might think differently, so I'm gonna send it your way. Jaba: Okay, let's see it. I don't love speckle. What's it at ⁓ yeah, that's a buy. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Cam Schlitler, one on one image variation superfractor rookie autos up. Eighty eighty grand. Jaba: So great that those are on card now. So great. I wonder what does, it'll probably do like five, ten grand. underscore_underscore_: No, it's ⁓ yeah, it's eighty grand OBO. Okay, we lost our we l we're live. We lost our screen. Jaba: I did just buy the card you sent me. It was a Slater DeBron Speckle Auto for $70. underscore_underscore_: Nice. Jaba: I don't think it's a killer deal, but I'd probably be annoyed later if it went and I didn't get it. ⁓ yeah, so Colombia's at five, he's at 80, and then we kind of have a glob six through eight. Ricky Money's at sixty-six, Diego Frontado, fifty-six, jonial hernandez at fifty-two. I think that those three are all pretty similar players, similar profiles. I probably like Joniel Hernandez the most, followed by Munnies and Frontado, but I do like all three. I'm not surprised that they're kinda in that six to eight. underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Jaba: Range. ⁓ You know, I I think kind of outside once you get outside like the top three names, there's nothing that really shocks me or feels really wrong. There's one name at the bottom that I'll get to that feels low, but there's no major surprises here. ⁓ And then to kind of plop in, we have this list segregated kind of by age. This is mostly like the DSL guys, but within that kind of 50 to 65 tier, we have NDS. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. No. Jaba: At fifty-eight, L'ORRay at fifty-four, and Sebastian dos Santos at fifty-four. You know, I think that's right where they belong. I'd feel a little bit better paying those prices for the guys I just mentioned over the DSL guys just because they're a little bit further along and pound for pound if they're the same dollar amount, I'm probably just going with the experience. That might limit the upside, but it's also covering your downside, you know, just kind of thinking it from an investment perspective. I mean, just kinda looking at this list, I'm I'm talking too much. What what are you thinking? underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Yep. Jaba: You you have it up in front of you? underscore_underscore_: Yeah, I I think if ⁓ I'm staring at it, if Azakar was still a Red Sock, he'd be probably closer to a triple digit auto, truthfully. Right? Like Ricky Munies and Diego Frontado definitely have their fans. They both have really good things to like. I do think Moneys is ahead of Frontado. ⁓ I I don't know if Brewers guys almost now get an extra little Jaba: Eight. Yeah. I agree. underscore_underscore_: A brewer tax because they've done so well with their prospects as of late. Like, everybody is like doing well. You just think of their last couple of releases, like they have way more booms than busts. Braylon Payne's doing like incredible. ⁓ Blake Burke just going back to twenty four draft. Like then all the recent guys they've had Made and Pena. And you just keep going through the list and it's like a stud, a stud, a stud. Like Jaba: They do. I think a hundred per underscore_underscore_: Not saying these guys are gonna dip hugely and it's like, ⁓ just brewer hype and then we find out who they really are. I don't think that's true. But ⁓ and then Joni Al Hernandez, who's obviously since been traded from the Padres to the Giants, and then went off. ⁓ that checks in nicely there. As I see his fifty two base auto, I probably should have bought that true gold at three fifty. ⁓ but that is ⁓ that's probably one that I feel like'll come down a little bit. Like A lot of these guys heading into the offseason, there's not gonna be news of them. Not I'll be interested to see if like a Jaden L'ORA goes to the ⁓ Arizona Fall League. Or Dos or Dos Santos because he was stateside in Jupiter. ⁓ Yeah. I'm also The they're like slow teasing him one player at a time and it's like, Come on, guys. Once we get enough of those names we could do an episode on that too, so Jaba: Yeah. Fingers crossed. We need those rosters to come out fully. Yeah, terrible. Yeah, absolutely. And yeah, I I'm with you. I think ⁓ to cut to the chase the name I was kind of referencing earlier is being just too low in relation to other guys. Again, not saying necessarily that the base auto price is too low, but kind of where this guy fits in in this pecking order is Samil Serrano. It's number twelve at thirty dollars. I mean, I like Juan Torres more than most. Samil Serrano just has so much more projectability than Juan Torres. I mean I Juan Torres is gonna get overlooked because he is a smaller second baseman and he put up great hitting numbers. But Samil Serrano's, you know, a pretty freakish guy. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: Mm-hmm. Yeah. But as a Yankee. Mm-hmm. Jaba: You know, that's the guy that I've seen just so many bullish comparisons on from smart people. And it's various smart people too. It's not like there's just like a couple people that love the guy. It seems like the general consensus is just very high on him. You know, I've seen J-Rodd comparisons, James Wood comparisons. ⁓ and it's not people that are, you know, falling into hyperbole frequently. It's not people that are just, you know, making clickbait. You know, it's smart people. so I think Samuel Serrano at 30. I think 30 is probably. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: where I thought his base auto would settle, that 30 to 40 range. ⁓ So yeah, I I think if you can get any, you know, any stuff on him off that multiple, I still wouldn't be buying base because even though I think 30 is low, you know, I still think everything's gonna get lower. But I mean if you can get a blue Samil Serrano for $50 or $150 at a 5X multiple on that immediately. If you're selling one for $150, just sell it to me. underscore_underscore_: Right. It's gonna get lower. Yep. Jaba: ⁓ but yeah, no other surprises. I mean Angel Nunez at ten thirty three dollars. We kinda spoken about him as being a guy who's underscore_underscore_: Yeah, that one that one almost surprises me that I I guess like I'm not downplaying the general consensus, but that he's that high. Like we had to talk about him to like realize how good he might actually be. not saying like we know everything and nobody knows anything. I'm just like surprised by that one 'cause I know there were a couple of twenty dollar bins early on too on his base autos, and like that's a good buy. ⁓ go ahead. Jaba: Right. Yeah. I I think it's one where you can understand why he's being underrated because of kinda like the That glob of call it fifteen DSL names that people really like. He has the worst power metrics, and it's not particularly close. Powers what sells, obviously, so like I do get that, but at the same time, it's not like he's a complete noodle. And it's a guy where, you know, the contact bat to ball is really good. Everything's kind of there. I think people see the power and are just running away. Where it should be more of a situation like a Jaden Lorray, a Caceris, a Slater DeBruyne. underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: where we're like, okay, well there's this great contact tool already in place. you know, the no power just makes it a good buying opportunity. And you know, basically just banking on it being, you know, something that comes along has these guys grow up literally in a physical sense. play more baseball. Yeah, I'm on Angel underscore_underscore_: ⁓ yeah. Yeah. You're talking Angel Nunez, right? Yeah, no, like I'm surprised he's this high. I thought he would have gone under and like people would have like not been on him. Like I'm just surprised in a good way, 'cause he's somebody we talked about and somebody that I like. That I think would be a good buy. And just to see him hovering right there like above a Samil Serrano or a Jadir Suarez, I'm like, ⁓ okay. ⁓ we skipped over Santiago Solarte. ⁓ forty one bucks space auto kind of come down a little bit. But like at release he was like a triple digit base auto like all day. Obviously the multipliers aren't there because his true gold went for two hundred. So do the math, it doesn't math, but we'll ⁓ that that came to us. So we will ⁓ we'll be we'll be talking about that one here in a little bit, so Jaba: Yeah. Where Where'd it go, Jeremy? That one's shipping up to Boston eventually. underscore_underscore_: ⁓ that's one we're excited about. what else What else do we have? So we talked about Nunez Juan Torres is at thirty two, Samil Serrano at thirty, and Jadir Suarez Jidir Suarez at twenty seven rounding it out from the Royals. ⁓ Jaba: ⁓ more more to come there. He's low, but I think that that's kinda like the, you know, thing where you have a headliner guy and then kind of a second option who's still like an A minus. underscore_underscore_: S yeah. But if you're doing if you're playing like the double up game for refractors, kind of being at fifty bucks, fifty, sixty bucks, it doesn't feel horrendous. Like, ⁓ then you got Azakar fifty eight. This is for eighteen, nineteen year olds in the product, Jaden Lorray fifty four, Dos Santos fifty four, Slater at forty seven and your boy Wilder Dalis at thirty-three to round it out. Jaba: Yeah. I like it. Keep feeding me those delis. If you're listening to this, sell ⁓ to me. Please. Yeah. You know, I I think we covered that pretty nicely. ⁓ I definitely talked too much, but underscore_underscore_: There you go. I know we'll we have we'll we'll do a more like because there are some older sticks, we'll talk about them in another one, just kind of like twenty plus. ⁓ anything you guys want us to talk about from this product, we'd be happy to dive into it and do some more network or network research. I do think it'll be interesting to have these numbers. I'm gonna make a graphic to go with these as like the header. ⁓ it'll be interesting to look back next year and have these numbers from release week. Jaba: Yeah, please let us know. underscore_underscore_: And be like, all right, this kid was the number three kid in Pipelines top one hundred. He was selling for X, Y, or Z, and he quickly settled here. Like, what could we have seen that coming? Like, how could we have forecasted that to come and use it to our advantage next cycle? Because the twenty five Bowman chrome was so good that but even remembering, like, Kevin Alvarez dropped down to a twenty dollar bill. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. How good? underscore_underscore_: Raniel Rodriguez was a fifty spot. Juniker was you could get sub twenty at some at points. Like, they're these are all still children. We have to remember that. It's gonna take time for them to develop physically, mature on the field. They're adjusting to a lot of different life changes on and off the field. Coming stateside, playing baseball in an organization now. It's different for them. So that's ⁓ that's kind of my little soapbox moment of these are 17 year old kids, they should all be juniors in high school. Jaba: Mm-hmm. Yeah. underscore_underscore_: Some of them are in the D S L, some of them are Luis Hernandez. Let's not try to poke too many holes in the high school junior playing A ball. Like Jaba: Yeah, I Yeah. Yeah. Like Luis Hernandez would be in twenty twenty seven Bowman draft. underscore_underscore_: Wrong. Twenty twenty eight Bowman. ⁓ yeah, twenty twenty seven Bowman draft. Yes, 'cause you'd have twenty six coming up. No. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, if he's a junior if he was a junior, he'd be going into his senior year. yeah, like Wan Wandia C and would be twenty eight draft. ⁓ underscore_underscore_: He'd be a high school junior now. Yeah, two more years. Yeah. It's twenty twenty seven. Bowman draft. Just think that's That's four more years or four more cycles of Bowman to come out until you hit Luis Hernandez as real first Bowman if he were stateside. Which when you just put it in that perspective, it's like, okay. Like maybe he's not not so bad, you know? Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, and I I understand being like, ⁓ that's a bit of a bummer that he wasn't incredible in single A but I think that's all just like gravy at that point. Anything he did at single A and anything he didn't do, I I'm fine writing off ignoring completely because like I said in the NL West preview, I mean there were so many videos of him defensively kinda going around in single A. I mean making throws that like guys like Machado and Arenado can only make. you know, it's not like this is just like a stick first and only stick guy. You know, he he's a really good baseball player and underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Yeah. No. Jaba: And you know, those are the guys that end up being really good baseball players. ⁓ But yeah, I think that that's a ⁓ that's a good wrap on things. ⁓ just excited to have a new product out to talk about. Like you said, I think it's exciting now to kind of have this underscore_underscore_: Yeah. Jaba: base layer, ⁓ so then the future, you know, we can look back at things and kind of try to see where we kind of as a collective buying base and, you know, you and I kind of as a team here, ⁓ gone wrong, could have missed something. ⁓ but yeah. Yeah, yeah, we're we're not the types to ⁓ solely focus on underscore_underscore_: And we will point out where we're wrong too. We're shameless. Jaba: victory laps. You know, we'll we'll definitely take our victory laps, but we'll you know, we'll own the bad ones. ⁓ so yeah, we'll be back ⁓ tomorrow, couple days. I don't really know when everything's gonna get released, but we're gonna record a college hitter one and then introduce a new segment that ⁓ Jeremy and I are very excited about. So with that underscore_underscore_: And if you've looked at the ⁓ Instagram you'll know what's coming along. And if not if not, then you won't know until tomorrow. Jaba: New wealth. Go follow us on Instagram, it's what, Scout and Speculator. ⁓ yeah, go follow us there. We're planning some sort of giveaway coming up ⁓ to boost those numbers. ⁓ trying to add more video. And ⁓ did you not see the text with Dave? Yeah, well I I might just do the who was it? Wilton Guerrero auto I pulled. underscore_underscore_: Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. News to me. Huh. No, guess that's coming out of Dave's pocket, not mine. Just kidding. Nice. Why not? Yep. Jaba: I don't know. Whatever gets us followers. So alright. That was ⁓ that that was all stuff that probably could have knocked that on the air, but who cares? ⁓ if you're still listening, it's probably just my mom. All right. Thanks everybody for listening. Go Mats. underscore_underscore_: been offline but enjoy you guys. Okay.