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NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NFL Best Bets Monday 12/1/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: new pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hack Man,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: know it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five. The worst month that
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: The slump, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's Toad back with you with toadsool
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: sports Monday, Uh December first, Happy December, everybody. Terrible weekend
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: for us. Don't really have anything else to say about that.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Yesterday too. Horrible losses out of the games yesterday. I
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: don't even remember what they were. Utah Jazz again. I'm
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: trusting the process here. The process put me on the
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Utah Jazz. Don't mind me as I'm messing with my
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: wires here. Oh everything's messed up for me right now.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Utah terrible loss obviously, I don't know what was the
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: other one. I don't even remember. Something in college basketball
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: went wrong as well. I think, oh yeah, UTSA not
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: even close again. The market looked like it was in
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: agreement with those I'm trusting the process, trusting the handicap.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia seventy six ers probably could have gotten there. I mean,
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: they had more, they had the lead for more of
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: regulation than Atlanta did. Philadelphia I think had the bigger
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: lead in regulation than Atlanta did. The game wound up
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: going into two overtimes after Philadelphia made a late comeback,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: after they did fall behind by some amount overtime, double overtime,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: and then they fall flat and double overtime. I mean,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I'm just sick of it, man, I am sick of it.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: And we got the win on Washington luckily every number
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: on that cover and I mean I got greedy and
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I wanted the outright win with Washington at that point.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: I mean that game. Washington was one hundred percent the
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: right side in that game. I mean that was a
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: wire to wire cover until overtime for them. And if
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: you have an underdog of a touchdown basically and they
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: go into overtime, I mean, you know you're on the
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: right side of that one. Like, the game went pretty
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: much exactly the way that I thought. Denver didn't put
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: up a lot of offense, not really enough to cover
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: a number like that. Washington hung in the game, they
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: played pretty well, Mariota looked pretty good. Yeah, not a
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: bad performance from Washington by any means there, and then
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: it looked like we might lose it because I never
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: actually saw the seven at a price that I wanted.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: I saw like one seven at minus one twenty come up,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: and I'm like, eh, like I'm gonna just I have
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: to score it at six and a half. That's what
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I went with. Luckily it hit. And if you watch
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: the end of that game, I mean I actually had
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: it on. It was man. I mean, that's one of
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: those games where it's like really really tough to stomach
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: and you just you basically you look away because it
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: was like so many times it looked like Washington had
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: been able to do it and then didn't. And then
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I mean pretty much at that point, like it gets
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: down to the end of regulation, Washington's kicking a field
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: goal in the last play of regulation to try to
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: tie it. At that point, you're like, just miss it
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: so we cover. Please just lose by three. No, it
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: went into overtime. They made the field goals. It was
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: an easy field goal, goes into overtime, and then at
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: that point, if Washington wins the coin to us, you're
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: gonna cover because if Washington gets the ball first, the
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: worst that can happen is that they throw a pick
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: six and then Denver doesn't. I'm pretty sure Denver doesn't
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: have to kick the extra point at that point, and
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: then it ends with Washington losing by six, so they
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: cover the six and a half on that, although I
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: guess if some people, if they played it late, they
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: actually might have had to get six or five and
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: a half, hopefully not five and a half. But it
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: was down a little bit kind of in the sixth
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: range late, but Denver won the coin toss. So that's
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: bad because in overtime, teams are incentivised to score a touchdown.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: So I hate all that. Dude. I think we need
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: to go to like college overtime rules or something, because
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: if you have an underdog like that, there's no way
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: that you should be on the verge of potentially losing
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: that play, you know, overtime. It's just ridiculous. And of
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: course Denver did drive and score a touchdown. I mean,
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Washington's defense is not good enough. They did, and then
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: at that point it's like, oh my god, like this
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: is pretty much all over, Like Washington's not gonna be
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: able to drive for a touchdown because at that point
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: Washington has to get a touchdown to try to extend
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: overtime because that's the way that overtime works. Now, they're
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: not gonna kick a field goal to cover the spread
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: because right, I mean, they're trying. They have to win
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the game. They have to get a touchdown. So I'm like,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: there's no way they're gonna drive on Denver's defense. But
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: they did. They did get a pass interference call on
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: one third down play, I think, which it was the
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: correct call if you're watching it. I mean, I don't
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: like games to be like I would be pissed if
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: I was on the other side, but I mean it
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: was the right call. And you know, usually you don't
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: want games to get extended on on a penalty like that,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: but you had to call that one. It was the
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: correct call. It was definitely PI. So the game continues
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: and then we get down to if you like I
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: was watching this game, and then you get a point
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: where it comes down to fourth down again and you're like,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: they're not going to do it, dude, Like I think
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: it got down to I don't know it was a
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: third Maybe it was third down, third and fourteen or something. No,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: before that happened, it was it was third down. It
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: was like third and four and Washington was on Denver
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: side of the field, so you're like, okay, they're actually
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: moving the football. Then they had this deep pass. I
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: don't remember who the receiver was, but it was a touchdown,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: so you're like, holy shit, like they just tied the game.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: This is incredible. It gets called back for holding, which
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: was a bit iffy of a call. I mean, holding
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: of that variety happens. It was technically holding, but holding
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: of that variety happens on every single play man. And
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: yes it did involve a defender that was getting close
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: to Mariota. You don't like a game to be decided
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: on that. Of course, I'm not happy because it takes
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: away the game time touchdown and that could be the
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: end of things. Now it's fourth down and I don't
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: know it made it third and fourteen, and then I
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: think they missed a pass. I think it came down
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: to fourth down at that point if I remember correctly.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: So it was like Washington was on the verge of
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: death the whole time. Then they got another huge passing
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: played at debo and you're like, oh my god, they
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: actually just did it again. But he got close to
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: the goal line, it didn't get in and then they
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: actually marked him at the two yard line where I
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: thought he got to the one, and I'm like, oh
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: my god, because it's first in goal with the one,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: You're like, they're gonna somehow they're gonna punch this in
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: in four tries. No, they're actually at the two. They
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: try to run it on first down in Denver's right
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: there knowing what they're doing, and they stop it for
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: a loss of a yard, and now all of a
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: sudden it's second and goal at the three. I'm like,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: this is not gonna be good, not good at all.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: They had some play that was I think any complete
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: pass thrown out of the end zone. After that, next
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: playing third down, they gotta do something here. It's a
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I think it was. This was the pass play again.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: It was to Ertz in the end zone. He had
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: a good game, but he should have caught that pass.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Should have been a touchdown from Ertz and he did
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: not haul it in. I mean it was. It would
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: have been a fairly difficult catcher. That's one that he
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: usually makes, and he had it man like he was
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: trying to one arm it, but like the way that
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: he does it, like he definitely has made catches like
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: that many times. Absolutely a catchup ball and he couldn't
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: haul it in. I thought that they had it on
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: that one. Now all of a sudden it's fourth down, Like,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: oh my god, they're actually gonna lose. It's all over. Nope,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: they actually tie it with the touchdown on fourth down.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Another pass play. I forget who the receiver was, but
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: incredible touchdown. It was one of the wide receivers I think,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: on like a slant or something like that. They actually
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: get it. And then I'm like, well, you know they're
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: gonna go for two, because I mean, it's the right call.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: When you're an underdog, you're gonna go. You're gonna go
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: for two. You're gonna try to win the game right now.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Do not extend overtime. You know, Washington Stevens. Isn't that
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: good If if they kick it and tie it, Broncos
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: get the ball and all they have to do is
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: get a field goal to win. So no, you're not
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: gonna give them the ball back, go for the win
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: right there. Correct call by dan Quinn, and the play
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: call was actually good as well. They called the time out.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: I believe that maybe they didn't call it time out.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: There they called the time out before the fourth down play.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: I know I'm ranty here, but I was intent on
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: this game. Except on each one of those plays, I
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: like turned away from the TV because it was like
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: watching like a train wreck and I'm like, this isn't
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: gonna happen, and like it looked like it had happened
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: so many times and it didn't happen, and then it did.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: But then I'm like, Okay, once they get a touchdown,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: you know they're gonna cover. But now you get greed
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: and you're like, get the outright win here right now.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: It was a good play call and Mariota he dropped back.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: There was a blitz. He had a guy I don't
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: know if it was Debo and gon I forget. One
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: of the receivers was there in the flat on the
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: left and there was nobody in front of him. Like,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: if you get the pass to him, he's gonna walk
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: in and they're gonna win the game on the two
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: point conversion, and instead, one of the Denver defenders was
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: in Mariota's face and swatted the pass down and that
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: ended it. If you didn't see it, it was unbelievable, man,
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: because if he can if he gets it a little
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: bit higher over that defender, that's gonna be an easy
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: two point and win the game there. Like Denver basically
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: sold out on rushing the quarterback on that on that play,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: and they left that receiver open in the flat man
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: and Mariota saw it. He was he was throwing it
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: to that receiver and it just got knocked down at
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the line, like it got knocked down right in front
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: of his face. Basically, oh my god. Anyway, we got
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: the win on the Washington though it was the correct call,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: so at least there was that. And I'm dude my
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: pick five. I won all of my picks and picked
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: five except for the Baltimore one on Thursday, so I'm
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: still in the money there. But I do have the Patriots,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: of course, and in that game, I think we're laying
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: seven and a half with the Patriots, which I don't
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: like as much as the seven obviously, But I had
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: a Buffalo Washington which was six and a half in
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: the game, but that was a cover obviously. And then
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: I had Tampa Bay because they gave us two and
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: a half in that game and the line was four
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: when the game went off, And I'm like, it's just
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: it's on the right side of the key number. I
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: didn't have a strong feeling really in many of the
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: other games. For me, it was between that one and Carolina,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: And maybe I should have gone with Carolina because they
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: won outright as a huge underdog. But Tampa Bay still
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: covered that number, and they should have won by more.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: If you watch that game, Tampa had to lead the
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: whole game, multiple score lead the whole game. They wound
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: up only winning by three, but it got us the
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: cover in that game on Splash Sports because it was
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I mean, part of the reason
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: I did it was because you're on the right side
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: of the key number, so there was that at least Pinsy.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: What's up? Thanks for hanging out ten in a row. Yeah,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: that's true. Over two days, I was ten and oh
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: that's right. It might have been more than ten. And
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: oh going back to the previous day or into the
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: next day, I'm not sure, but yeah, Missouri, there you go. Ze,
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: you're actually gonna be throwing some bets down. Please don't
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: blame me if they lose Tower gingt NPC. What's up? Man? Yes,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: I did go early today and I don't want the
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: show to be that long. Orthough, I just ranted about
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: that game. Let's get into it. I don't like the
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: college basketball board. I don't have any plays in college
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: basketball today. I'm gonna have an NHL play. I'm gonna
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: have three NBA plays today and then you already know
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: what my NFL play is and I will talk about
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: it again. For college basketball, I mean, we get this
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: awesome noontime game between two zero to eight teams, South
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Carolina State Chicago State. Does anybody want to watch this game?
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: I didn't think so. It's not even be I mean
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: you can probably find a stream for it, but it's
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: like not even telllevised. According to ESPN here, Chicago State
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: is actually up to a three and a half point favorite.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: I mean, you have to be really bad to be
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: a three and a half point underdog against Chicago State.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Let me just put it that way. This is this
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: is gonna be one of the worst games of the year. Man,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: it might be competitive just because both teams are so bad.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: My god, it's like which team is going to avoid losing?
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: So if you want to watch that crap fest. I
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: don't even have an opinion on the side. Temple Villanova.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Even though the line is not that competitive, this is
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: a more interesting one because this is one of those
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia area matchups here with Temple definitely gets disiders themselves
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: to be a little brother. I think they're gonna show
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: up here for this game against Villanova. Man, Villanova, they
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: do have Michigan up next, so though it's not for
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: eight days, but maybe that is a bit of a
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: look ahead. I think the game needs a little bit
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: more to Temple in this one. That is the way
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: that I would lean. The money seems to agree with
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: that one. Villanova is a fourteen point favorite, eighty two
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on them, eighty one percent of the
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: cash coming back on Temple. Villanova also plays a very
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: slow brand of basketball, so I always talk about that, like,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: they don't put up high point totals, so that makes
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: it more difficult for them to cover as a big favorites.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: That's another check mark for the underdog in that game.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Total also dropped to one forty eight, so it's a
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: pretty low to odo as well, So taking the points
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: with Temple does make sense in that game. Yeah, I
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: mean contemplating life decisions yet that is a yeah me
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: as well. Yeah, NFL was one of my worst pick
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: them weeks, although the late Slate yesterday actually was way
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: better for me. Though, so like I had Buffalo, I
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: had a strong opinion on Buffalo. Should have given it
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: out as a play. Probably that was an easy winner.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: I got the Chargers right in my pick them game. Uh,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: just the one where you have to pick every game
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: on ESPN. So I mean after going after starting ZHO
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: to four, I haven't been that bad for the rest
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: of the week. Let's just put it that way. I've
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: kind of salvaged it at least to some extent, even
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: though it's overall still a bad week. Like I'm below
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: five hundred, but not significantly so. And on the season,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: I'm still like twenty picks above five hundred on the season,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: picking every game. Charles, what's up? Thanks for hanging out man.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: My voice is like dying already, and I haven't talked
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: about like any games yet. Iona and Delaware. I would
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: lean to Iona in this game. This was close to
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: being a play for me. I'll just let you know
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: it's not gonna happen, but they're coming up an ugly
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: loss to Green Bay in that I think this was
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: the battle No I was gonna say it was the
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Battle for Atlantis. It was not. It was the Virgin
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: Islands Paradise Jam somewhere in the Caribbean. That was an
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: ugly loss for IONA. They were like a seven and
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: a half eight point favorite against Green Bay and they
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: took the loss there. Now, Iona was already not gonna
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: be in the championship in that tournament because they took
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: the loss immediately upon going out there against a pretty
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: good Akron team. Then Iona bounced back from that and
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: they beat Oregon State in two overtimes. So I think
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: Iona was just kind of hungover in the Green Bay
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: game because beating Oregon State is still kind of a
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: big deal because they used to be a Pac twelve team. Like,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: if you're a small school like Iona, that's a big
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: win for you. And they were like a three and
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: a half point underdog or so in that game probably
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: and the fact that it went into two overtimes, I
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: think they just didn't have a whole lot left in
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: the tank and they lost outright as the big favorite
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: there against Green Bay. Now, coming back home with like
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: a week off, I expect them to bounce bat or
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: actually they're not at home They're on the road here,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: but I expect them to bounce back. They have only
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: had one true road game so far, but it was
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: a double digit win at Kansas City. Kansas City's bad,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: but I mean they're playing Delaware here. Delaware is not
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: exactly good. They're better than Kansas City, but that's not
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: saying much. Delaware. Their resume is not impressive, man. I
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: mean they've lost this to Bucknell, a loss to a
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Division two Wilmington Delaware team, a lost to Southern Illinois,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: and the wins are against Saint Peter's, I mean, fairly
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: mediocre there, and then Greensboro team that's way down this
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: year UNC Greensboro. So Delaware's resume is very unimpressive. They're
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: coming back from Florida, I believe. Yeah, they were in Jacksonville,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Florida to play there, so they're only traveling back from Florida,
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: which isn't as big of a deal. Both teams have
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: had like a week off pretty much, so I think
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a situation where I think both teams
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: kind of come in fresh. Iona is still on the
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: verge of trying to bounce back. I think the fact
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: that I own it gets all that time off after
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: a bad loss. I think they're the right side in
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: this game. They're the better team, as the oddsbeakers are
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: telling you, they're actually favored on the road. Iona likes
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: to play really fast, and Delaware they don't really slow
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: it down that much. Delaware is somewhat on the faster
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: side as well, so that's the way that Iona wants
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: to play as well, except Iona just wants to go
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: even faster. But I think that does kind of help Iona.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Still Iwonno's up to one and a half point road
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: favored here, sixty seven percent of tickets and eighty eight
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Delaware. But if I was
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: gonna play a college basketball game, it would be this.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: I would play Iona probably on the money line at
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: this point, although you probably have to lay about minus
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: one thirty for it, but minus one and a half
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: also makes sense. Seventy six percent on picks, like picking
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: every single and of vel game. That's like almost impossible, man,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: that's insane. Like I've been running at like sixty percent,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: even that's like virtually impossible. Seventy six is like unheard of.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Like I don't even believe that it's true unless you're
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: talking about just picking like five every week, Because if
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: you're talking about that, like I'm doing really well like
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: five every week, I'm like thirty six and twenty four
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: right now or something like that. So I have been
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: running really well there, But that's not seventy six percent either,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: I don't think no. I mean the Thanksgiving coming into
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: this year, Favorites have been really hot on Thanksgiving over
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: the last like several years, Favorites were on like a
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: huge run on Thanksgiving, and it seemed like they were
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: pretty much the right side in most of the games
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: this week too, And yeah, the mark, I think the
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: market kind of got like the market read was wrong
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: on all those games except for the Lions and Packers one,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: and I was wrong on that one. Pretty bad, really
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: bad Texans. I was kind of hesitant on that because
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: I forgot to mention CJ. Stroud came back, so that's
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: set up a reverse injured players spot for the Texans there.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: And the late money came in on the Colts in
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: that game. So although it seemed like there were different,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: like differing opinions on that game, but the Colts wound
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: up with more of the money coming in on them.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know that was that game was really really
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: hard to figure out. Sixty six percent. That's like still insane,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: Like I think you're you're ahead of me now after
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: this week. I think I was running close to that
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: for a while. Yeah, the Kangaroos of UMKC. All right,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: what other games do we have to talk about? North
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Alabama and Jacksonville State. These are both Alabama teams. Believe
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: it or not, it's Jacksonville Alabama. So it's a you know,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: an in state rivalry game of to some extent. Here,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville State is the favorite and they're at home. North
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Alabama they are road testing. I mean North Alabama's played
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: a difficult schedule. Man. They played Mississippi State on the road,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Clemson on the road. They did play Chattanooga on the
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: road as well. Not as good, but an East Tennessee
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: is pretty good. They did lose to them, So Northern Alabama,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, the record isn't great, but they are at
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: least pretty battle tested. Jacksonville State is not as battle tested.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: They've had three pretty ugly losses in a row, including
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: only putting up forty three points last time out against
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: North Dakota State, which I think was in this Arkansas
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: State tournament, whatever it was, Arkansas State was hosting it.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville State only has one win against the Division one team,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: and it was against Coastal Carolina, which is not great.
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: But how however, in this game, Jacksonville State's laying five
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: and a half points, so the oddsmakers are actually telling
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: you they are the better team. I mean, looking at
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: their resume, I don't really want a part of it.
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: The only angle I would see with laying the points
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: here is that Jacksonville State's coming out of a horrendous loss,
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: like only putting up forty three points. You're probably gonna
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: want to bounce back from that. And that's really the
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: only thing that I could say about that. North Alabama.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: They're not in a negative spot. I mean, they just
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: ended a loss by beating a non Division one team,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: and that's a way to give yourself new momentum. So
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: I don't have much else to say about that. We
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: have Cincinnati hosting Tarletan State. Cincinnati coming up an ugly
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: loss to Eastern Michigan, so you think that they would
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: bounce back from that. So normally I would say that's
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: gonna put Cincinnati in a bounce back spot. ESPN is
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: being extremely unhelpful to my handicapping by not showing me
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: the betting odds here. I hate ESPN, dude, I absolutely
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: hate them. Where are the betting odds showed me them?
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: I know Cincinnati was like a double digit favorite here though,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: and you remember I faded Eastern Michigan. I'm pretty sure
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: off of that game, and I think we got to
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: win on that one. So Cincinnati they should be in
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: a bounced back spot. The problem that I have with
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: it is that they have a huge game up next
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: against Xavier. Those are both Cincinnati schools, and that game
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: is always like a war, like that's a huge rivalry.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: Those teams hate each other, so there is the potential
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: that Cincinnati is looking ahead here. So I can't do it, man,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: I can't ask them to lay a huge amount of
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: points here. Although yeah, also the spot for Tarlatan looks
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: okay with the fact they've won three games in a row,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: not against good teams, but just to kind of continue
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: their momentum. A couple of non D one teams in there,
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: and Rice, you know, in state sibling. I guess if
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: you want to call them that, Rice Charlotte did State.
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: I mean then won't be intimidated because they did play
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: on the road already against SMU and LSU. They got
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: blown out, but they at least are road tested in
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: the extent that they've played big schools already on the road.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: The money is coming in at Cincinnati, and I understand
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: that it's because Cincinnati is coming off that ridiculous loss,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: is a huge favorite, so you got to think they're
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: gonna be embarrassed and they will bounce back from that.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: But again, I worry about that Xavier game looming in
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: like four days. That's a huge game, So I'm not
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. But eighteen and a half is the
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: number where Cincinnati is now seventy one percent of tickets
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: Charlton State nine to two percent of the cash of Cincinnati.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: I won't disagree with it, but I have hesitations. And then,
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: of course Xavier is also playing today, and that means
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: they were in a look ahead spot as well. Because
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: that Cincinnati game is coming up. Xavier against this bad
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: Saint Francis team, they're probably just gonna get in, get out.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: And now, if Xavier was coming off that win they
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: had against West Virginia, I might be recommending a play
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: in Saint Francis here even though they're really really bad.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: But Xavier did have a game in between those against
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: A and M. Corpus Christi and got that win, so
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: that's kind of a momentum continuer. That would have kind
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: of been the spot where Xavier suffered the letdown, and
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: I think they might have still covered in that game.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: Force ESPN again is not helping me, not showing me
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: the odds. They won the game by twenty one. I
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: don't think they're favorite by twenty one, but I could
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: be wrong. Definitely a look at spot to Cincinnati, I
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: wouldn't disagree with the Oh and by the way, the
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati game is the Skyline Chili town strewed out. Oh man,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: you're gonna be shooting it out of your ass after
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: you eat Skyline Chili. Although I actually like Skyline Chili.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: Melted cheese on that thing that use cinnamon and the chili.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: I know, I'm an Italian and it's a disgrace to pasta.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: I guess to put chili on pasta, but help me whatever, man,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: you know, sue me. I guess is what I mean?
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: I like that stuff, but yes, uh, Saint Francis, PA.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, this team is bad, but the one good
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: thing is they finally got to win against a non
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: Division one team. But that will give them some momentum
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: at least moving forward. And they at least have played
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma and TCU on the road, so they played some
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: big conference teams already on the road, so they at
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: least won't be as intimidated. I do think Saint Francis
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: makes sense in that game. And I don't think Xavier
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: is that good this year in kind of a transitional
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: year here for them, but Xavier is a twenty seven
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite as well. From twenty seven, yeah,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is quite a few points to be
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: taken there. That is what I would do if I
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: was gonna play that game. I actually forgot to handicap
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: MacNeice and Incarnate Word when I was going over these
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: games here, so I'm gonna do that real quickly. I
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: don't think I'm gonna see anything here. The McNeese is
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: just on a nice run. They just had an easy
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: win against Middle Tennessee, but that was in the Cayman Islands.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: Incarnate Word was out in the boardwalk battle. That was
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Daytona Beach and then they beat some non Division one
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: team after that, so I don't know. I mean, the
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: travel spot maybe is a little bit better for Incarnate Word.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: McNeese is obviously the better team. I don't have a
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: whole lot else to say. Mcnice is up to a
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: nine and that point favorite seems like the money might
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: be coming in that way. Maybe it makes sense. I mean,
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: they are the better team, but MacNeice only has one
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: true road game so far and they lost, but it
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: was against Santa Clara in California, so they had to
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: travel to the Pacific Coast. For Santa Clara is a
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: pretty good team, Incarnate Word is not very good, so
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: it is a different set up at least this time.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: But that's why you're asking them to cover a big number.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, they are coming off kind of a somewhat
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: lack lost their game against the Middle Tennessee it was
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: pretty bad, so I don't know, we'll see. And then
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: Kansas State is playing today against Bowling Green. Kansas State's
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: coming off two difficult games against Nebraska and Indiana and
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: actually Mississippi State before that too, So Kansas State was
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: in the Kansas City Tournament whatever it was here and
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: they lost in the final I think to Nebraska. They
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: turned around, had to go on the road to Indiana,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: took the loss there. Now they're coming over to that
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: and they got Bowling Green up after this, they got
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Seaton Hall, which is at least a Big East team,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: and they've been playing decently as of late. At least.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: I don't like the spot for Kansas State. I would
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: like it less for Kansas State if they played Indiana close,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: but Indiana had a total handle on that game the
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: whole time. If Kansas State had played them like way closer,
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: I'd probably be fading Kansas State here. I still agree
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: with the Bowling Green side in this game. I just
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: can't get there with it. Kansas State's a twelve and
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite, fifty percent of tickets, sixty nine
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: percent of the catch on Bowling Green. Bowling Green off
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: to a decent start this year, Like maybe they're one
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: of the top half MAC teams this year, which I'm
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: not really used to that being the case here in basketball,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: but maybe they are. But that game will stay away
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: from me. ESPN Yeah, I mean, uh, just you mean
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: like ESPN pigs can pick them. I mean, that's what
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: I do as well. I think I'm met. I'm at
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: like one oh four and eighty five right now or
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: something along those lines. I don't know. I'm like close
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: to twenty above five hundred right now, Skyline. You gotta
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: go to Ohio to get it, though, So I don't
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: know where you are, Charles right now. But I think
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: they only exist in Ohio, and they're in most of
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: the major cities in Ohio. I think I don't know
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: if they're in Cleveland though, because it's more of a
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati thing. They're definitely in Columbus, but I don't know
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: about other than that, all right, And then we have
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: a cal Baptist in Colorado. Is actually an interesting game.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Both these teams are seven and zero cal Baptist with
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Grant kind and not they're in the whack anymore cal Baptist.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be one of the better teams in the Whack.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: They have, you know, some decent wins in here against
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: UC Irvine Oregon State, but that's what they're coming off of.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: They just beat Oregon State on the road. I believe
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: that's not easy to do them. Man. Oregon State was
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: certainly a favorite in this game. Although I don't think
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: they were a huge favorite. Yeah, I mean again, ESPN's
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: not showing us the odds that ESPN had them as
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: like almost a sixty percent favorite, So a small ish
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: favorite there. Now cal Baptist is having to go into elevation. Now.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: They have not left the Pacific Coast yet this year,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: so that is a concern. This will be the first time.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: It's the first time they're playing outside of yeah, the
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast going into Colorado, it's not gonna be that easy, man. Colorado.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: They're a big twelve team though, so cal Baptists will
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: still get up for this Colorado seven and zer and
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: it's kind of a better seven and zero because they
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: did beat Providence, who's a big East team. At least
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: San Francisco is actually pretty solid. But now Colorado's coming
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: up beating Washington and that was in this Holiday Classic,
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: which Colorado actually won it in Palm Springs, California. So
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: Colorado's coming off a pretty decent win over a big
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: ten team. Washington still feels weird saying that, and they
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: won that tournament and they have their big rivalry game
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: against Colorado State next, So to me, the spot is
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: not very good for either team, Like, I can't get
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: either way. I can't get on either team here, man
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: both teams, the setup is not good for them. I
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: don't really know which one is worse. To be honest,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: the market read on this looks like the money's coming
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: in towards cal Baptist. After call, Colorado's up to a
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: twelve point favorite, eighty six percent of tickets ninety six
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on cal Baptist. It's a low
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: total of one hundred and forty eight and a half,
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: so taking the points kind of makes more sense in
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: that respect. I do think the spot is probably worse
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: for Colorado, but also the public might think that they're
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: being sneaky. Oh I'm getting all these points with an
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: undefeated team, you know what I mean? Like for like
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: seeing the spread being that high, it's the oddsmakers are
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: telling you who's obviously the better team, Colorado. I mean,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: we know that, but I don't know, like the recreational
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: guys that think they're being sneaky taking the points here,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: it almost looks too easy to do that. So there's
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: a lot going on in that game. Obviously I can't
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: give out a play on that. And then Portland is
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: playing at Stanford. Uh, Stanford is coming up beating Minnesota
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: and Saint Louis, so some nice wins there for Stanford. Uh,
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: they won whatever Palm Springs tournament they were in as well,
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: Stanford did. Uh, they're staying at home here off of that,
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: but they might not pay a lot of attention to
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: this Portland team. And then they do have UNLV up
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: next in the landscape of basketball, that is a bigger
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: game than playing against Portland. Although Portland has only played
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: one road game so far, one true road game, and
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: it was bad. They got destroyed in that game by Wyoming,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: and I think Stanford is better than Wyoming, So you know,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: it's not a good sign for Portland going on the road.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: We will say that they are coming off a win
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: over Long Beach State, but yeah, I mean I can't
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: get there with either side of that game either. The
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: money looks like it is coming in on the Portland side.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, they least probably step it up for an
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: ACC team, but Stanford up for seventeen to seventeen and
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: a half with juice sixty percent of tickets on Stanford,
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: fifty nine percent of the cash coming in on Portland.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. That's the college hoops breakdown there.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: I don't have any plays. If I was gonna give
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: out one, it would be on Iona. That's the one
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: that I like the most. I mean, this market is
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: really shifting around. This is the thing about doing this
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: show early in the day too. Like if you want
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: to try to rely on market reads in any way,
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: you gotta watch the market kind of throughout the day,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: like I usually just rely on my situational handicapping. So
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, if I own it comes through, I'm gonna
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: be a little bit angry. But at least I can't
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: be too angry when my you know, when my lean
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: is correct. But I just get angry that I didn't
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: feel strong or feel more strongly about it, you know
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: what I mean. We're gonna go to hockey in a second.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: I gotta I gotta reload on some water here, man.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: I gotta blow my nose as well, so I apologize.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Something is going on with my throat. Man, I don't know,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: Like I do still love water here, but I don't know.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: I m many more. I don't know. Hold on a minute,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: I'll be right back. You can look at the hockey
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: board while I do this. There aren't too many hockey
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: games today, so that's the full board. I am gonna
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: have a play one of them. Maybe you can guess
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: what it is. One second. All right, I'm back, Oh man,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: I just turned my ac on. Two man, this is like,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know, something doesn't feel right here this morning.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: All right, hockey? First game up is let me look,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: Columbus in New Jersey is the first one on ESPN schedule,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: So I'll start with that New Jersey coming off a
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: loss of Philadelphia, which that's a big rival It's a
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: pretty big rivalry game. I think teams have kind of
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: like a split fan base there, so kind of a
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: big game. It ended a three game win streak for
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: your Jersey. I could see this being a little bit
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: of a hangover spot here, and they do have Dallas
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: up next, which out of conference game. But Dallas is
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: still really good and Dallas was pretty good in a
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: bad spot yesterday too, So excuse me. All that being said,
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: I think I would lean to Columbus is the underdog
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: in this game. My New Jersey is gonna be the
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: public side most likely fifty eight percent of tickets, sixty
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them for now, but the
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: money line moved down from minus one fifty five to
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: minus one forty four. I would lean towards the New Jersey,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: or excuse me, towards Columbus Columbus in that game as
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: the underdog. That would be my opinion in that game.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: It's not a very strong opinion, though, but I think
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: the spot does set up a little bit better for
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: Columbus as far as their schedule is concerned. They just
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: took a loss of Pittsburgh, but I think they've had
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: at least a day off after that. Let me see,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: they've had multiple days off. They haven't played since Friday,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: so they had the whole weekend off, which might help
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: halt that like losing momentum that they're on here single
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: game road trip, but I think they will be focused.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: So Columbus to me, looks like the correct side in
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: that one, But that's not a strong one for me.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: My best bet is the next one, though, entering a
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey territory here. I don't remember if I made a
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: play on the other game between these two, but we're
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: gonna go with the Pittsburgh Penguins this time against Philadelphia.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: The last time I gave it a lean or it
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: might have actually, I might have actually made it a
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: plane on Philadelphia against Pittsburgh earlier this season, which was
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: also in Philadelphia, and Philadelphia won, although I think it
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: was an overtime. These teams, of course, they don't like
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: each other. I mean, they're crossed state rivals here, so
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: it is kind of a revenge spot for Pittsburgh. So
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: maybe that's a little bit of an extra motivator here.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: But I like the spot. I know. I keep saying
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is not as good as the record would lead
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: you to believe, which continues to be true. But I
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: just keep finding spots where I like Pittsburgh. Man. We
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: gave them out on the show against Buffalo, I think,
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: and we got the win with that one. I'm coming
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: right back to them this time, man, because they're coming
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: off a loss on Saturday that was hideous seven to
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: two lost to Toronto. If you dig into that box score,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: I mean Pittsburgh outshot them by a lot, by twelve,
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: but some of that was because they were losing by
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: a ton. They were down five to one at the
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: end of the second period, so you can't take too
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: much away from that. But I mean the physicality was close,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: the face offs are somewhat close in the game, so
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: I don't think the game is really as much of
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: a blow out as it look. I think anytime you
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: see seven to two in hockey, it's it's gonna be
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit misleading, Like hockey is just a closer
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: sport than that. But also, anytime a team loses like
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: by four plus goals or whatever, especially at home they're in,
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: they're usually in a pretty good bounce back spot after that.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: And for Pittsburgh they get to go out on the
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: road just forget about what just happened at home. Pittsburgh
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: is a pretty big hockey sitting big fan base there
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: in the city, so going out on the road, they
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: don't have to hear what the fans are saying about
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: that horrible loss there. Toronto is better than people think
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: they are right now. Though. Anyway, Pittsburgh going out on
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: the road, I think it will help them focus. They
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: just get get out of there, you know, remove the distractions.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia's got a better record than Pittsburgh now. Man, I
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: don't know if I totally buy into Philadelphia's record right now. Either. Philadelphia,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: they're coming up that huge win over New Jerse, like
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: I said, but that makes it a letdown spot. But
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: even worse, they're coming home from a road trip that
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: they've been on since last Monday, where they went down
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: to Florida and after losing to Tampa Bay, they beat Florida,
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: came back up to New York beat the Islanders in
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: a shootout, which beat me. I think. I think I
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: had the Islanders in that game on the show. And
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: then they beat New Jersey on Saturday, and now they're
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: coming home from that. And I always talk about how
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: teams returning home from a road trip sometimes they can
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: be a bit distracted. I know it's the Pittsburgh Penguins,
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: your cross state rival of sorts there, but even so,
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: returning home when you've been away for a week, you
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: got stuff to do back at home. I mean, they
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: were on the road during Thanksgiving too, so it might
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: be a situation where maybe they are like having to
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: do some like late Thanksgiving festivities, you know what I mean,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: maybe they were doing that when they got back home.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: So to me, this looks like I didn't even mention
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: the Thanksgiving distractions that kind of add to the return
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: home distractions here in NHL and NBA. But yeah, I
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: mean I think that adds to it as well. We're
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: gonna be on Pittsburgh and this one. I know Philadelphia
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: is not really gonna be looking ahead to Buffalo, but
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: even so, I think it's a bad spot for them.
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: They got sixty eight percent of tickets, fifty four percent
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: of the cash, and the money line is moving fast
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: down for minus one fifty to minus one twenty nine.
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: So it looks like the market is very much in
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: alignment with me on this one. On the Pittsburgh underdog price,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: there find whatever the best money line prices you can get,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: like any price where you're getting Pittsburgh is a fairly
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: decent sized underdog, I think is good. So I think
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: they have a decent chance to win the game obviously,
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: which is why we're doing it better than better than
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: what the odds are giving you. Let's just put it
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: that way. Like, I think it might be close to
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: a coin flip in this game. So Pittsburgh is the play.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: They got a lot of advantages in that game. So
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: I love those small underdogs where they're in a better situation.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: So yeah, complete bs, they're up two. I'm assuming that
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: was in the first overtime. Yeah, with four seconds left,
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: Naxi miss both free throws. I didn't even see that.
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: That is such bs, dude. So basically, if he hit one,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: then then Atlanta would have been forced to at least
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: try a three to tie it. Yeah, and Maxi, I mean,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know for sure, but I'm assuming he's a
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: pretty good free throw shooter too, because he's a guard
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: and that tends to be the case. That's ridiculous. What
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: is Maxie's free throw percentage? Like, I guess he's probably
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: above eighty percent and he misses them both. It seems like, dude,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: it seems like this shit is rigged all right. For
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: the rest of the hockey games, here we got Winnipeg
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: got Buffalo. Winnipeg is struggling without hell Wi Buck here,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: but they did get a win in their last game
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: against Nashville. Of course it was Nashville, so I mean,
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna be over confident after that win. I
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: think it's a good win for Winnipeg because it breaks
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: a four game losing streak, gives them some confidence, maybe
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: gives Comery Commy some some confidence moving forward. Here they
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: get another weak opponent here in Buffalo, at least so
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: though they do in Montreal coming up in a couple
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: of days, and maybe that is a bigger deal because
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: it's a Canadian team and whatever. Buffalo is a team
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: that a lot of teams are overlooking because they're not
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: that good. But I mean they're an okay team. I mean,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: they can definitely compete. But Buffalo did just win against
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: Minnesota in a shootout on Saturday, and that was a
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: win for us on the show. That was our only
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: hockey play I think on Saturday, and Minnesota was in
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: a huge letdown spot off of beat in Colorado, so
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: that was a that was a nice spot to fade Minnesota.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: Buffalo got the win. They're coming back home. It was
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: only a single game road trip, though. I think they
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: will be focused with Winnipeg coming in. But it seems
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: like the money is actually on the Winnipeg side. Buffalo
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: down for minus one thirteen to minus one ten, even
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: though they kind of look like an anti public favorite.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: But I don't know. Thinking about the situation and looking
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: at how the market is kind of trending right now,
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: I think the market is trending towards Winnipeg. It looks
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: like to me at least, and I would kind of
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: lean that way situationally as well, even though it does
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: mean joining kind of a public side, but public, you know,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: take that with a grain of salt in the NHL,
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: because it's not a very publicly bet sport. Eighty two
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: percent tickets, eighty six percent of the cash on Winnipeg.
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna disagree with the Winnipeg side though. Really,
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is at Saint Louis. Anaheim, I believe they're on
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: a back to back. I think they're the only team
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: playing today that's on a back to back. But they're
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: only going from Chicago to Saint Louis, so it's a
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: short trip. But they did just lose to Chicago yesterday,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: so kind of an ugly loss for Anaheim there. They're
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: definitely not as good on the road. Anaheim. We know
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: they're really good at home. They're like a five hundred
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: road team going to Saint Louis. I mean, I don't
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: know if they're gonna have full focus on Saint Louis here.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, Anaheim is still on a third game at
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: four and as all in different cities. Saint Louis hasn't
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: played since Saturday, so they didn't play yesterday, but they
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: are coming off a decent win over Utah one to nothing.
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if that's gonna put them
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: in any sort of letdown spot. I mean, I don't
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: expect them to overlook Anaheim, but if Saint Louis wins this,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: I think they will sweep a three game home stand.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: The money does look like it's on the Saint Louis side.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: Some of that might be just because Anaheim's in the
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: back to back, but sixty percent of tickets on Anaheim,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the cash Saint Louis down for
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: a minus one forty nine. I won't really disagree with
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: the Saint Louis side there, but I mean I don't
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: really have a strong opinion there, but probably a slight
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: lean towards Saint Louis. Utah and San Jose is the
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: last game Utah coming off that loss to Saint Louis,
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: but they are playing a third game in four days
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: in different cities, fourth and six all in different cities,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: having lost the previous three of them, but now having
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: to go out to the Pacific Coast here from Dallas
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: and Saint Louis. It's not an easy spot for them.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: They did lose the last time they were in San
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: Jose in the middle of November in overtime. Does that
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: mean San Jose's gonna overlook Utah? Probably not San Jose, though,
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a difficult loss four to three in Vegas,
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: so I don't like the spot for San Jose. Really
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: don't love the spot for either team. And San Jose
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: is playing a third game in four days two with
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: a trip to Vegas in the middle of That's not
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: that long of a trip from San Jose, but still
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: big game against Vegas, and they they came to within
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: one one goal of Vegas there and they did beat
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: Utah before, So maybe I don't know, Maybe San Jose
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: will slightly overlook them. Maybe there will be some revenge
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: motive on the side of Utah. I don't disagree with
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: the Utah side here. They're from minus one fifty minus
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: one sixty two. So also interesting the odds makers are
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: telling you what to think because both teams have the
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: same record, and San Jose's home record is better than
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: Utah's road record. Yet Utah is a pretty substantial road favorite,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: and the odds makers are just telling you San Jose
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: is not as good as the record looks. Yeah, So
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: all in all, yeah, I would lean with that market
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: kind of misleading number there too, so slightly into Utab
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: even though we see sixty five percent of tickets seventy
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on San Jose. I would
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: probably be looking towards Utah. You know, maybe make your
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: own minus one puck line because I did not like
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: my experimentation with the win this game in regulation. All right,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: let's go to the NBA. NBA we have I think
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: eight or nine games, and I I'm gonna have a
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: play on three games. Atlanta is at Detroit. Detroit could
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: be in a little bit of a letdown spot. I mean,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: they just came up a win over Miami. That was
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: a nice win, big win. It did erase a two
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: game losing streak for Detroit, so maybe that will propel
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: them forward. Here they are having to come back home
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: from Miami. They are playing a third game in four
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: days and a fourth game in six days, bouncing all
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: over the place, Boston back home, Miami, back home. So
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it's not the easiest spot for them.
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: And they did just win at Atlanta on November eighteenth,
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: So maybe Atlanta does have a little bit more motivation
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: in this one. But the spot for Atlanta is pretty
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: bad because, as we were already alluding to, they played
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: a double overtime game yesterday to beat us in BS style,
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: and now they're coming off not only beating Cleveland on Friday,
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: but then going into Philadelphia and winning in doublet yesterday,
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: so they're running back to back having it now travel
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: to Detroit off of that. I don't love that either man.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: Both teams are not in good spots here, so I
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: can't give out a play or anything. The money looks
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: like it's coming back on the Atlanta side. I don't
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: really disagree with that, But do I want to jump
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: on a team that just played two overtimes yesterday? No,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: And usually in a situation like that, you're gonna see
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: the money kind of coming in on the rested team.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, it does look like the line did move
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: towards the Pistons, so probably for that reason, because I
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: don't see any real injury issues here that would move
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: the line up from seven and a half to nine
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: on the Pistons. I think it was all because of
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: the Hawks playing the double overtime yesterday seventy three percent
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: of ticket. It's only fifty percent of the cash on
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: the Pistons. So market Reid for now looks like it
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: is on the on the side of the Hawks. I mean,
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: if I was gonna play this game, I would go over.
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: Like I'm not going to really disagree with taking the
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: points of the Hawks, except I mean, I don't want
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: to play either team, like I said, so when teams
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: are in bad spots, it might be a little bit fatigued.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Whatever it could show up on deep beense. So I
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: haven't checked to see what was my overlean yesterday. I
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: don't even remember. Don't remember which game it was, don't
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: remember if it went over or not. Maybe I'll have
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: to look into it. But in this one, yeah, over
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: makes sense to me in this one for those reasons.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: It's up to two thirty three and a half juice
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: to the over, sixty two percent tickets, ninety eight percent
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. So do with that
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: information what you will. Jeffrey, what's up man, Thanks for
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: hanging out. Fatigue shows up on three point attempts, it does,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: but three point attempts are a smaller component of the
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: game than defenses. So I think the fact that it
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: hurts the defense matters more. Cleveland at Indiana. Cleveland just
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: took another loss to my Boston Celtics yesterday. I could
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: see this going both ways. I mean, Cleveland's on a
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: back to back and they have to travel to Indiana here.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: I mean it's not a huge leg of travel, but
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: it's a big game, man. I mean, they were looking
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: for revenge against Boston because they got embarrassed in Boston.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: They couldn't get it done. On the one hand, maybe
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: it'll be pissed because they lost as like a seven
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: point favorite. But on the other hand, it's a big
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: game against Boston, so maybe they'll be hung over. So
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: I could see this going both ways. And they did
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: beat Indiana on the twenty first by double digits, so
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe it is possible Cleveland does overlook
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: Indiana a little bit. Again, I don't think they have
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: a big game after this though, so we're basically just
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: looking at what these teams just did. Indiana on a
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: two game win streaks, and maybe they do have a
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: little bit of momentum now though, are they going to
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: be in a letdown off of being in Chicago I'm
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: not so sure. I mean, they were at home there,
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: they were only small underdog there. Chicago has been kind
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: of bad, so maybe Indiana just has a little bit
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: of confidence now in some momentum, and they're staying at home.
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't really disagree with the Pacers in this one.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: The Calves are down from eight to six and a half.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: Now they're definitely gonna be public. Eighty percent of tickets,
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the caves on the Calves, and
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: the money kind of coming back on the Pacers. Now.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: I know the Pacers are the team that they're the
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: team that eliminated the Calves last year, right, But the
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: Calves did get their revenge sort of already by beating
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: them once, so I think the playoff revenge motive is
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: kind of not quite there anymore. I would probably lean
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: towards taking the points of the Pacers, but I certainly
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: don't want to get involved in that. No, dude, your bankroll,
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: I don't. I would recommend not uh not overdoing it
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: with the bets, because you don't want like, a, look,
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have bad runs in betting. It just happens,
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have bad runs and you need to be
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: able to not get totally wiped out by that. So
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: like when I'm giving out these plays, I'm recommending like basically,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: the way that I would do it is every single
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: one of my plays was three percent bank roll and
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: that was it, like you know what I mean, Although
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: a lot of guys just like they do one percent,
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? Or or they'll call like, well,
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, because I've heard like I don't know,
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: like Vegas Runner was basically saying that, like betting five
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: percent of your bank roll on anything is crazy. But
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: then I'm like, but what do the wayzer talk guys
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: mean by a five percent play? Then, like they don't
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: mean five percent of your bank roll. I don't know,
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: cause I think typically you want to have your unit
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: size I thought be one percent of your bankroll. I
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: mean that's the way that I've been doing it. So
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know. And then usually I was just putting
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: the three units on everything on Milwaukee at Washington. Milwaukee
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: did gena win and Giannis's second game back, so maybe
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: they will start playing better, although it was against Brooklyn,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: but now they're playing Washington. Washington sucks too, so I
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: think that's a good win for Milwaukee just because it
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: breaks that really bad losing momentum that they had, So
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: I think they're in a pretty positive spot. Washington did
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: just get annihilated by Indiana and they had the whole
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: weekend off, so they're not in a bad spot either really,
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: So both teams are in positive spots in this one,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: which that is kind of an indicator potentially towards an under.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: But this total is plummeted from two thirty seven down
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: to two thirty one and a half. Seventy percent of tickets,
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash and the unders and
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: the money does seem to agree with the low scoring
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: feel of this game here. I mean, I don't have
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: a feeling the totals though, Like I said, I'm just
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: trying to think about it into my head, Like I
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: think if teams are in better spots, they're gonna be
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: able to focus more on defense. Bucks are down from
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: a ten point favorite to a nine point favorite. Other
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: public seventy five percent of tickets. Public pretty much just
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: fading the Wizards in every way, like they don't want
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: anything to do with the Wizards. Fifty percent of the
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: cash on the bucks. I mean, I'm not gonna disagree
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: with taking the points just because that's I mean, that's
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: kind of what I default too, is looking at home underdogs.
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: But in the NBA it's a little bit different because
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: the points matter a little bit less, both teams being
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: a positive spots. I don't know, I mean, I guess
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: I'll agree because the market read looks like it is
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: coming in that way, but not a strong opinion. More
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: best bets time, Let's do it first. One off, I'm
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: gonna have three NBA plays. The first one is gonna
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: be the Brooklyn Nets plus the four and a half.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: This one. The market doesn't look look like it agrees
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: with me, But I have to think that the public
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: is going to be fading the Nets here, so I
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: think maybe this market reed will look different by the
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: time the game happens. Right now, we see seventy five
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets in eighty six percent of the cash
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: on the Hornets. But I do not like the Hornets
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: in this game. I mean, the Hornets are still an
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: ugly team, and you're asking this Hornet team to lay
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: points on the road, which, by the way, the Hornets
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: they only have one win on the road. This entire season,
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: and it was at Washington. And yes, they blew Washington out,
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: and yes, I know Brooklyn is basically as bad as Washington,
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: But still, is this really a situation where you want
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: to lay points with Charlotte on the road as a
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: one in eight team? I just don't think so. I know, Brooklyn,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: all of their wins have come on the road. I
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: know that they've sucked at home, but they got to
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: get a win at home at some point, man. And
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: you know, I called Brooklyn's first win of the season
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: against Indiana, so I believe that was the case. Right.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: If I'm not mistaken, I forget. But let's let's go
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: with it here, man. I mean, Charlotte, they're coming off
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: some big games here, man. On Friday and Saturday, they've
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: got back to back wins in back to back games,
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: playing back to back Knights. They beat Chicago and then
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: they beat Toronto in overtime, and Toronto was a hot team, dude,
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: and that endo Toronto's long win streaks. That was a
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: crazy win for Charlotte there. Now, that's what they're coming
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: off of. After not playing yesterday, they're starting a road trip.
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: I do you usually say that when you start a
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: road trip, you have momentum, But this looks like it
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: has let down written all over it because that was
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: a massive win over Toronto and they were obviously an
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: underdog as well, and up on Wednesday they do have
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: to play the Knicks, and then Toronto again, and then
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: Denver and then Chicago and then Cleveland, Atlanta, Detroit, Cleveland,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: blah blah blah. So I mean, which one of these
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: games is the game that looks like the biggest flat
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: spot here? It's got to be the Brooklyn Nets. I mean,
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: nobody's paying attention to this really bad Brooklyn Nets team here.
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: And for the Nets, they just got embarrassed on Saturday
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: against Milwaukee. It was a single game road trip. They're
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: back home here for one game. I think they're gonna
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: want to at least show up for this after losing
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: a bunch of games in a row. They also lost
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: to Toronto, so that makes this look way too easy.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: Like they lost to Toronto on Sunday in Toronto, but
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: Toronto beat them by ten. People are gonna say, oh,
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: if Toronto beat Brooklyn by ten and Charlotte just beat
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: Toronto by seven or whatever, then and you're only asking
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: me to lay four four and a half points here.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: That's so easy, right, you lay the points with the Hornets.
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's that easy, man. I think Brooklyn
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: shows up in this one. I think it's a bad
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: spot for Charlotte. I think they might not have enough
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: focus in this one. I think Brooklyn might catch them. Here.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: We'll take Brooklyn plus the points. Man. Hopefully my Brooklyn
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: whispering continues. I think it's only been that one, really
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: good one with Brooklyn. But let's try it again here, man,
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: point shaving. Yeah, like guys are out there probably having
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: money against their own team. Probably that is happening, SOB,
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: what's up man? Saint Louis Blues in regulation? Why in
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: regulation on Saint Louis You don't want to just lay
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: the money line on them? I guess it's a little
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: bit high, but I agree with both. I don't really
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: agree with the Pistons. The Penguins money line is is
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: a play I gave up. That was my only hockey play.
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: I gave up the Penguins on the money line, So
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: I definitely agree with that one. Let's let's get it
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: done here, man. Next up is another play. This one
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: is gonna be dude. You know me, My plays are
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: really difficult to stomach a lot of the time. This
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: one's gonna be hard. I can't even stomach it. We're
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: gonna go with the La Clippers plus six and a
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: half against Miami. This is somewhat of a fad of Miami,
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: although I actually think it's a positive spot for the Clippers.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's gonna be good for the
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: Clippers to be on the road because in all this
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: losing the Clippers have been doing. Their last two wins
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: have actually come on the road. I know it was
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: only against Charlotte and Dallas. Miami is certainly way better
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: than those two teams. I obviously I understand that we
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: don't need the Clippers to win here though, we just
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: need them to cover. But the Clippers, they've actually been
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: really bad at home. Their first three wins of the
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: season came at home, and they haven't won at home
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: since Halloween. But there are two wins since then, A
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: bolt been on the road, so they've actually been better
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: on the road, and I think this is gonna be
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: good for them to just go out on the road here.
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: After they lost on Saturday at home to Dallas, and
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: the Clippers were nine and a half point favorite at home.
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: They lost that game, and that's just disgusting. So I
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: think one of the best things that can happen for
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: you is if you're not playing well, just go on
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: on the road, man. I mean, that should have been
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: a positive spot for the Clippers. So, yeah, that does
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: warry me because they came back home. They took a
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: loss in that return home spot. I mean, that's understandable.
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: It's a bad spot returning home, but for them to
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: not pick themselves up, you know, it doesn't look great.
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: But then if you look at it a little bit further,
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: it was a back to back, so maybe you can
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: excuse that just maybe they were tired playing on the
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: back to back. Now they have a day off. I
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: think this will be better though, man. And again, when
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: things are going really bad before you at home, one
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: of the best things that can happen before you used
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: to go out on the road. You don't have to
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: listen to what the media is saying. And of course
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: the media in LA they're always just talking about the Lakers,
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: like it's all Lakers shit. You know, people just I
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: don't know, people are just not fans of the Clippers. Really,
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: it's a sad situation for the Clippers. I think it'll
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: be better for them to just be on the road here, man,
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: and maybe they'll be able to do something here. The
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: Clippers have had James Harden back, coming back from personal issues.
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: I get him confused with Durant sometimes, but yeah, Harden,
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: he is back. I mean he seems to just kind
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: of try to He seems like a ball hog though.
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, this Clipper team, the problem with them is
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: they don't run strategic offense. Like their offense is basically like, oh,
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: James Harden's gonna take the ball of the court and
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: James Harden is gonna shoot it. It's like, uh, maybe
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: you could involve some other guys on your team, Like
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, And I think Kawhi Leonard is back,
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if that matters too much because
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: he looks like he's too old at this point, end
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: injured too much. But whatever, But this is all about
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: the spot, man, and yeah, hopefully Harden could just take
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: over and get this thing done for us. But Miami,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: they're coming off of losing their long win streak. They
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: had a six game win streak and you know, I
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: talk about when a team loses a win streak and
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: can hang them over into the next game, and I
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: think that might happen here. And in addition, that game
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: was against Detroit. That was a huge game for Miami,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: and they were close. They were losing this game like
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: pretty significantly for a lot of it. They were losing
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: this game by almost twenty points almost at the end
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: of the third quarter. They had a huge fourth quarter. Man,
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: they roared all the way back in the fourth quarter
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: to get to within like two points in the final
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: minute of the game and then still fell short at
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: the end. That was a huge performance for Miami. So
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: I think for all those reasons, this is a pretty
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: major hangover spot here. So we are going to take
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: the Clippers plus the point points here are the money
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: seems to agree on this one. Seventy eight percent of
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: tickets on the heat. Of course, the public will only
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: want to play the heat. They're not gonna want anything
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: to do with the Clippers, and the heat have been hot.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: They're gonna expect the heat to bounce back. Oh, you know,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: it's just a loss to Detroit, right, of course, they'll
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: beat the Clippers. The Clippers are way worse than Detroit. Again,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: I agree with that. Obviously the Clippers are worse than Detroit.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: But again it's all about the spot only fifty the
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: cash on the heat. We're getting extra live value here
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: on the heat. I don't think that it's because of
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: any like injury issue really here. Like I looked at
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: the injury report, that doesn't really seem to be anything here.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: So I think we're pretty much getting what we expect.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: A little Bogdanovic being out is kind of crappy for
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: the Clippers, but he's been out for a bit now,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: so it's not a you know, something that's gonna change
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: the line day to day. So Clippers plus six and
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: a half looking at the Clippers, Yeah, are you gonna
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: do it? Don't dude, don't lose all your money though, Jeffrey,
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: again you out to money. Management is a huge part
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: of this man because you can pick winners, but if
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: you don't like manage the money correctly, you can still
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: wind up losing money, you know what I mean? Like,
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: you want to manage it correctly, all right, And then
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: finally we're gonna have another play. Three games in a
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: row on the board, we have plays all of them
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: are underdogs. We're gonna grab the Bulls, and I think
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: the Bulls are basically at the bottom of their market
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: like price at this point, man, So we're gonna come
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: in and grab the Bulls at plus nine in this one.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, the Bulls they're not as good as they
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: looked at the very beginning of the season, but they're
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: not as bad as they look right now either. So
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: we're gonna come in and scoop up the Bulls now
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: that they're below five hundred and they've lost three games
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: in a row, all to terrible teams New Orleans Charlotte, Indiana. Now, yeah,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: they're playing a third game in four days in different cities,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: but Charlotte, Indiana, Orlando. I mean, I'm not as concerned
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: about that right now, especially because it's the last game
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: of a road trip. And I do think that when
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: a team has had a really bad road trip, I
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: think they do try to get that win, man. They
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: do show up and try to focus. So I think
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: you are gonna get focused out of the Bulls here.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: The Bulls have some slight injury issues going on here.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: They have a few guys, like you know, Jalen Smith
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: is gonna miss the game. I don't really know the
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: Bulls personnel that well. I mean, it's not like giddy
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: or anything like that here, but you know, just somebody
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: keep in mind because I think that's part of the
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: reason why the line is so high. But Orlando, I mean,
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know that Orlando should really been laying a
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: price like this, even though they are at home. I
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: don't know that they should be against the Bulls, who
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: are still a pretty competitive team. I mean, the Bulls.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: They're below five hundred now too, So I think the
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: fact that the Bulls just drop below five hundred, that's
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: gonna be another motivator for them, because it's just that
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: mental thing like you do not want to be a
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: losing team, you know what I mean, Like we're not
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: a losing team. We got to go out there and
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: get this win. And you don't even need them to
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: win here, you just need them to cover Orlando after
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: you know, starting like the season, trying to go fast paced.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: I think that hasn't really worked, and I think maybe
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: they're starting to play a little bit slower, which is
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: what they should be doing, focusing on defense. But they're
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: still without Benchero, remember, so their best player is still
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: out until I think he might be coming back in
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: the next game, so maybe they're even looking ahead to
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: that at this point. But either way you look at it.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: Orlando is coming off a win over Detroit, Man and
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: we had that one right me being a Piston whisper,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: that was a win for us on Friday with the
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: Orlando Magic, they got the outright win against Detroit. Remember,
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: Detroit was in a bad spot, which is why we
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: did that. Detroit had lost They're like huge wind streak.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: They were going for a record franchise record win streak,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: and the Celtics ended it for them. I thought they
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: were gonna be hung over into that game, and they
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: were also returning over from a road trip. It was
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: a double whammy from them. It was a bad spot.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: So Orlando caught Detroit at the best possible time. Now
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: that's what Orlando's coming off of. They've had the whole
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: weekend to think about that and basking that, and now
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: they're coming back home probably listening to the media. Oh
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: this Orlando team, they're back, baby. They just beat Detroit.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: But it could be a letdown spot here and the
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip. And even though it
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: was only three games where they stayed in the Eastern
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: time zone. It was a road trip that went through
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: the Thanksgiving break and lasted the whole week, you know
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: what I mean, like the Ben Austin's last Sunday. So
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: I think they might come home, they might have some
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: Thanksgiving stuff to get done, have to get stuff done
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: around the house, you know what I mean. So again,
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: I think it's a distraction spot here for them. They
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: do have the Spurs up next in the Spurs or
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: at least a winning team, so maybe Orlando does look
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: ahead to that. They did beat Chicago, I think already
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: didn't they I know they lost, excuse me, Chicago did
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: actually blow them out early in the season. So I
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: don't know. Is there any revenge motive here for Orlando
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: from that, I'm banking on it at least not being
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: enough for them to cover a huge number here like this. Yeah, revenge,
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, you don't want to overrate revenge like I'll
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: I'll mention it as like kind of a factor that
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: does also add to, you know, leaning in that direction,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: But in this case, I don't think that it makes uh.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's enough to take me off of
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: the Chicago side here, let's just put it that way.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: And then again for Orlando, they're looking to get Buncher
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: all back. Man, it's not happening in this game. Although
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: if it was, I would still fade them. He's gonna
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: be out. It looks like he's supposed to be back
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: next game, so again they might be looking ahead to
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: that game. But also the game that he comes back,
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: you might want to fade Orlando because it'll be a
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: reverse injured players, Bob. But of course, if he happens
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: to surprise come back tonight, then taking the points against
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: them does make sense too. He's not though, he's ruled out,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: so we don't have to worry about that. But again,
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: if and when he does come back, I think that
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: is still a fade spot for Orlando. Because your star
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: player is coming back, You're gonna get line value fading
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: that team because the line will overreact to it. You know,
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: I've explained it enough times and the chemistry sometimes is
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: not there again and yet so all right, let's finish
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: it off. All right, Vucevich is returning home? Which game
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: is that again? Fading Florida? Yeah, I mean I'm fading
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: the Orlando Magic. Oh yes, I'm fading Orlando and Miami. Correct,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: I didn't even think about that, but yes, that is true.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: It's the anti Florida day today. Dallas and Denver. I mean,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: obviously this looks like a pretty big mismatch. We know
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: Denver is gonna be a huge favorite. Dallas is playing
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: a third game in four days, all in different cities. Well,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: actually not all in different cities, my mistake. They played
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: two games in La in different arenas, and now they're
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: going to Denver into elevation after pulling off an upset
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: over the Clippers. Still not a very easy spot for them,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: even though yeah, ideally they want to show up to
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: face Denver. But I don't know, it's a pretty bad
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: spot for Dallas. Denver's returning home from Phoenix. That was
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: a win for us on Saturday. Our one NBA play
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: was a winner there with Denver. Uh. Pretty satisfying win
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: for Denver, though, So I don't know. Are they going
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: to be in letdown motif to that? I'm not really
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: so sure. We're turning on from only a single game
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: road trip, not really a big deal. They don't have
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: a big game up next against Indiana, So I don't know.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: I kind of lean to the Nuggets in this one
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: spot is worse for Dallas uh seventy nine percent of tickets,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash Nuggets up to an
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half point favorite. I would agree with
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: the market and that one. That's probably the way I
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: would go. Houston don't really want to talk about this
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: Houston Utah situation as we took an ugly loss on
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: that one yesterday and now the teams are playing again today.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: It's a back to back for both teams. But you
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: know what I talk about, this is a zig zag
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: spot where Houston blew out Utah yesterday. And when you
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: have a game that's you know, like way on one
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: side of the fence there and the game was like
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: a blowout one or you know what do I want
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: to call an outlier result? Like what's the other word
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for? Like when the game was like just
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: way off in one direction, you know what I mean?
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: It was an extreme result in one way. The move
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: is usually to fade that result and to come back
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: on the other side, especially because if you're Houston, you
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: just beat this Utah team yesterday, so it's like, what
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: do you have to fix? You have nothing to do.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: You have nothing to fix for Utah. You have all
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: the adjustments to May because nothing worked last night. So
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: you're getting basically the same amount of points in this
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: game too. So I think Utah is the correct way
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: to look in this game. I don't really want to
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: do it, though, I'm gonna stay off of this one
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: this time. Houston doesn't really have a look ahead. I mean,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: they only have Sacramento up next. That's not a big
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: deal really, so maybe if they had a huge look ahead,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: I might be more tempted to be on the Jazz here.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: The money does agree with the Jazz. I mean I
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: still agree with it, fifty eight percent of tickets on Houston,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: seventy three percent of the cash on the Jazz. I
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: don't rely solely on the Zigza, although it is a
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: decent handicapping tool, So that is the only tool that
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: I have in this game. So that is the way
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: that I will lean Jazz plus the points. By the way,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: the money is agreeing with the Bulls. Just so you know,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: the Magic are up from five to eight and a
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: half for some unknown reason. Sixty two percent of tickets
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: on the Magic, sixty three percent of the cash coming
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: back on Chicago. So the money agrees with me on
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: that one too, just pointing that out. Money is agreeing
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: on those games, let me see, and then not agreeing
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: with me on the the nets play for now, but
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: we'll see it is not agreeing on the Pistons by
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: the way for now, just to point that out. Yeah,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: and anomaly, Yeah, that's that's another that's another way to
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: put it as well. And then we do finish the
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: NBA slate here with Phoenix at the LA Lakers. Phoenix
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: just took that pretty ugly loss to Denver at home.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: Remember I talked about it. It was a bad spot. I
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: mean Phoenix had played Oklahoma City basically to the wire
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: on the road the previous nights. It was a terrible
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: spot for Phoenix. We got the pretty easy win with
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: Denver in that one. Now Phoenix, after that ugly loss,
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: they have a day off, they get to go out
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: on the road. I think they will show up and
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: be focused. Here it's a positive spot. When you don't
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: have things going for you, you get to go back
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: out on the road. Usually you will be focused to
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: start the road trip. Of course, they will have focus
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: when they're facing the Lakers. The Lakers are not in
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: a bad spot either, except that they're on the back
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: to back, so I guess that's the one thing and
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a concern. But they had
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: an easy win yesterday at home against New Orleans, so yeah,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: they're on the back to back, but they're also not traveling,
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: so it's not the worst back to back. It's not
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: as bad as the back to back that Phoenix was
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: in in that game against Denver. So yeah, but the Lakers,
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: it looks like something's going on with the Lakers because
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: they're down to a four and a half point favorite
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: now from ten. It looks way too easy to play
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: the Lakers. Although, but I want to come in and
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: grab only four and a half with the Suns on
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: the road here, I would not if the line was
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: still at ten, Yeah, I would say I lean to
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: the Suns. Fifty percent of tickets on the Lakers, seventy
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on the Suns. I agree
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: with the Suns as far as the situation is concerned.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: But why is that line dropping so much on the Lakers.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: The only thing that I saw in here is that
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: Lebron looks like he might not be playing, but like,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: how could that, how could Lebron? Does he really alone
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: Lebron does just he himself moved the line five and
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: a half points. I mean that seems insane to me, Like, yeah,
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: he's Lebron, like, you know, he's one of the best
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: players in history, but at his age, does he really
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: move the line that much? I mean, that's insane. So
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: to me, it would seem like that line move is
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: an overreaction. So I can't come in and say, yeah,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: you should take the sons of that much much lower number.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: No way. At the higher number, yeah, but at the
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: lower number I think you maybe even start looking the
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: other way here. Yeah, I mean that's the only real
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: big thing on the injury reportal the Marcus Smart is
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: listed year as well. He and Lebron I think both
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: missed the game yesterday. But that's the thing. Also, if
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: these guys both play today, then you're gonna get some
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: rested starters basically for the Lakers here with Lebron and
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: Smart because they both didn't play yesterday. So you gotta
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: think that maybe the Lakers. I mean, to me, I
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: thought that it was a situation where I didn't even
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: see it yesterday, but I thought that maybe what the
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: Lakers were doing were we don't really care about this
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: Pelicans game. We could beat them resting some of our players,
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, knowing that they're on a
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: back to back. You rest some guys against the really
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: bad team and then have them play against the better team,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: the Suns. So, but it looks like somebody's out for
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: this game. Because the lines at four and a half,
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: that makes me think Lebron's not playing. Smart not playing
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, he wouldn't influence the line that much either.
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: The combination of them maybe influences the line that much.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, I still think it's an overreaction. Smart is
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: a very good defensive player, but I don't think he
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: really impacts the live very much just on his own.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: So and Lebron, I mean, the line definitely does overreact
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: to him. We will say that. So, yeah, I mean
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: that's a weird one. We'll see the line move scares you.
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: It's just extra value, baby, getting more points on the
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: magic when you already like the magic side. Yeah, give
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: it to me. Whatever it is, it's an overreaction. The
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: Knicks versus Raptors, You have raptors against the Knicks, in
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: the NBA Cup in a week, which I guess is
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: gonna be. Is that a revenge spot go against them
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: when they're in the look ahead spot, I'll have to
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: I usually I don't even look that far ahead, man,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: I don't play chess with these handicaps, although maybe it's
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: a good idea to do it, to identify those spots.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: But like for me, like a lot of what happens
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: has to do with what just happened in the previous game,
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: So it's almost like there's almost no point and looking
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: until then because you have to see what really happened
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: in the previous game, you know what I mean? All right?
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: And then NFL. I did already give out a play
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. We're laying the Patriots minus seven. The
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: market I believe agrees with that. I know we're on
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: the public side in this one, but I think it's
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: the correct side. I think you do. You can get
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: seven on this one, even though the public is on it,
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: which that does worry me kind of that like why
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: of the books not moved it back to seven and
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: a half. But whatever, seventy per tickets, seventy four percent
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Patriots. I still think that
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: the right side. If you saw my analysis on Saturday night,
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: I think this is a bad spot for the Giants
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: and a good spot for the Patriots. Now, the Giants,
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: they just had a huge game against Detroit. As I
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: pointed out in my analysis the other day, they took
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: Detroit into overtime. Man, it's double digit underdogs on the road.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: That was a huge game for the Lions. And not
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: only that Detroit. The Giants had the lead in this game,
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: they were winning twenty seven to seven. Team in the
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter, they blew the lead and then lost in overtime.
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, you put in an effort like that as
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: a huge underdog and you fall just short. I don't
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: think it's good Man. Now they have to travel to
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: kind of an unfamiliar spot road out of conference game.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: It looks pretty bad to me man for the Giants here.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: Not only that, but the Giants they did pull some
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: gimmicks against the Lions, and the Lions weren't ready for again.
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: The first touchdown was like a flea flicker where jan
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: Dale Robinson went up throwing the past to Jameis Winston,
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: who had two touchdown receptions in the game, and the
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: other one that they had that was a trick play
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: was from gunner Old Schefsky. I don't even know who
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: that really is, but he threw up pass to Winston
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: and that was the one where Winston I think made
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: that crazy move to get into the end zone. That
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: was the touchdown to put them up ten in the
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: fourth quarter to this Giants team. I mean, their defense
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: is also totally untrustworthy. I mean this defense, they're giving
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: up so many leads this year. It's crazy. He do
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: is this Giants defense. It's like they're on the verge
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: of implosion all the time. And the fact that they're
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: a bad run defense is also bad for covering as
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: an underdog because what's the favor gonna do if they're
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: winning the game, Well, they're gonna run the football, and
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: the Giants are very bad at defending the run, and
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: the Patriots have a decent rushing attack. So if the
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: Patriots are ahead and they're running the football, that means
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: they could extend the lead by doing that because they
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: do do that. Okay, the Giants don't defend it well,
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: and the Patriots running the football, they can actually still
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: score against the Giants by doing that, So that looks
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: pretty advantageous to the Patriots as well. For the Giants,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: Jackson Dart is coming back in this game, so reverse
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: injured player theory is now in play here with the
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: Giants now they get their starting quarterback back. I don't
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: want to call him a star yet. I love Jackson Dart.
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: I think he's better than Jameis Winston only in that
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: he's younger, so he does provide more of that like well,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: I think Dart is gonna have a better career, but
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: I think Winston has gotten screwed. Like teams just don't
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: want to play Winston because he throws too many interceptions.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: But you see what he does out there. He's a
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: very dynamic player, man. I mean, he's a guy that
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: you want on your team. I think Winston has gotten
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: a really he's got really the short end of the
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: stick throughout his career. I love Winston, I love Dart,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: but yes, Dart, I think he's better than Winston. He
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: protects the football a lot better than Winston, and he
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: can run more than Winston can to this one because
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: he's younger. So yes, Dart is an improvement over Winston
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: in those ways. I will say that, But he is
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: the one thing that Dart does not have over Winston
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: right now is experience. Winston does have more experience, and
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: because Dart's coming back after having multiple days off or
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: multiple games off or multiple games injured, and the Giants
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: have played pretty well without him. I mean, the Giants
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: almost won against Green Bay and Detroit without Dart. So
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: now Dart's coming back to I don't know, man, it
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: is possibly. You just have that tendency to just kind
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: of ease up a little bit as well, just because
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: you know your star player is coming back, but he
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: has to get back into rhythm again. Man, he's been
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: out for a while, so sometimes it'll take the quarterback
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 1: a little while to get back into rhythm. I know
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: I faded the spot with the Ravens going against Joe
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: Burrow and that didn't work out. But that wasn't because
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: Joe Borrow was great in that game or anything. It
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: was because the Ravens turned it over all the time
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: in that game and like the Ravens just totally mentally lapsed.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know what that game was. The reverse injured
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: player spot, by the way, yesterday did work against Pittsburgh.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers came back and it was not good for him.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: In that game, Josh Allen only threw for one hundred
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: and twenty three yards and still beat them. I mean
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: he didn't have to throw because they were winning the
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: whole game, so they ran James Cook all over the place.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: But whatever. Anyway, another reverse injured player spot here. I
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: do think that usually it affects the line, although in
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: this case, I think the oddsmakers have not really move
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: the line. So I think the oddsmakers they don't really
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: consider there to be a huge drop off between Dart
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: and uh Winston. But that's still fine because I still
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: think there's gonna be that aspect of it where your
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: player's coming back, he's got to get used to being
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: in there again. The team has to get used to
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: playing with the wing end. And for New England, I
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: think they're in a positive spot here. Man. I know
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: I've been saying I don't think New England is as
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: good as the record. They've played a pretty weak schedule,
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: that's all true, but they're coming off a pretty lackluster
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: performance against Cincinnati where they almost lost, and that was
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: before Joe Burrow came back. That was against Joe Flacco.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: So I think New England will be in a more
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: positive spot here focusing on that. Yes, I know they
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: have Buffalo decks, but they do have a buye between
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: the two, so I'm not really that worried about the
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: look ahead. So I still think they'll show up because
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 1: they had a bad game last week. Plus they're at
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: home on Monday night. Man, Man, do you really overlook
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: a home like I forgot to mention this on Saturday night.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: You're not gonna overlook a primetime home game, especially when
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: you're the New England Patriots, because when have they hosted
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: a Monday night game recently? I know they got to
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: host a Thursday night game, but the Patriots have been
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: bad for a while now, like basically since they haven't
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: had Tom Brady, they've been bad. So like, the Patriots
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: have not had a game like this where they've hosted
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: Monday Night for like a long time. So I think
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be big for them, So I expect them
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: to show up for that reason too. So I do
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: like all that as well. And the Patriots, I mean, yeah,
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: the game against Buffalo is gonna be big. Yeah, they
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: need to hang on to the division. But the Patriots
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: probably are thinking they still need to win because Buffalo
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: did also win yesterday, so the overall record does still
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: kind of matter here. And again, the out of conference
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: games typically are worse for the road team, and the
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: road team you know, they're traveling to a place they're
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: not familiar with as well, and it's the game that
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: means the least on the schedule. But again for the Giants,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: they're a dead team now, so it's like which games
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: matter on the remaining schedule, And yes, primetime games do
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: matter sometimes, So I think they put way more weight
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: into Green Bay and Detroit here man, because those are
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: teams in the NFC, those are big teams. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: I know it's New England, they're playing, well, I know
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: it's Monday night, but I just don't see the Giants
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: having a lot left in the tank here man. And
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: they do have revenge up next remember they have a
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 1: divisional revenge game next week or no, sorry, that's after
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: a bye, actually, my mistake. After a bye. They do
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: have divisional revenge against Washington though, so maybe that is
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a look at spot. That's gonna
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: be a big game for the Giants, just because it
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: is a divisional team. That they already lost to, so
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: they're gonna want to get that win, and I think
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: they might by the way, So maybe a way to
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: look next in that game coming up in two weeks.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: If the Giants have a really bad game here tonight
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: and then they go into a bye, they're gonna be
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: coming out of that by having fixed some things and fresh.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: So maybe something to look ahead to there with the
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: Giants against Washington the following week. So Patriots minus seven, though,
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: I think you can get the seven out there right now.
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: I think it's pretty abundant. Don't want to lay the
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, although I am in my splash
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: entry we have the seven and a half, so I
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: just have to do it. I mean, it's the last
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: game that I have on my card, so I'm doing
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: in any wave. Though we're on the wrong side of
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: the key number and we also aren pick them on ESPN,
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: so I don't love that, but we're doing it. But
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: for the betting purposes, you can get the seven without
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: the hook, I'm pretty sure. So there you go. Easiest
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: schedule ever. Yeah, Patriots are beating bad teams, but guess
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: who also is a bad team? The Giants, So yeah,
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is another one of those bad teams
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: of the Patriots get on their on their schedule, man,
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. I just think it's going to
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: be another game where they where they do it. They
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 1: didn't cover last week bad performance against Cincinnatis, so I
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: think that might give them a little bit of a
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: scare that one was on the road and they're also
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: at home and laying fewer points this time, but then
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: they were on the road I think against Cincinnati. So
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: it's interesting. Anyway, that's gonna do it. My plays one
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: more time. We're skipping college basket all today. We have
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: in hockey we have the Pittsburgh Penguins on the money line.
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: NBA we have Brooklyn Nets, Clippers and Chicago Bulls all
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: plus the points, and then New England Patriots minus the
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: seven in the NFL Monday night game. That's gonna do it.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: Learn it Town on Twitter, learn it Tone on Instagram,
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: like subscribe to the channel here, give me good comments,
• 1:24:23
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• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: and Spotify helps me out as well. Listen over there.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: That helps me out too. Although my voice is horrible,
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: I need to dude, I always like I just talk
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: way too loud, dude, I gotta like, I don't know,
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: I gotta somehow, maybe I should put my headphones back on,
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: just somehow lower my voice by hearing myself in the headphones.
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know how I can do it.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: I just can't do it. I don't know. Patron dot
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: com slage learn the tone and you can get some
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: bonus yuke content Yuke Spotify v that I know. I
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: always say I have to keep it up to date,
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: I know, and uh, you can get UK requests there
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: as well. Covered in you because my yuke channel on YouTube,
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: be on the lookout for loser casts whenever that's starting.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: It might start this week, it could be as early
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: as tomorrow night. I don't know. That's gonna be the
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: new comedy ish panel podcast hangout podcast with me Laton
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: from out Love Thoughts, Tyler Yankee from Libertarian Podcast Review
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: and whatever else he does and also famed for being
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: the behind the scenes producer of Tower Gang and then
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: again two guys also on the panel. Way have no
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: clue who they are who I guess are friends with Layton.
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but hopefully we can do something with
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: that show. Hopefully it's funny. Hopefully people like it. Hopefully
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: it takes off. Who knows, and I might be back.
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: Like I said, I'm gonna probably do a show here
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: on the channel where I fill out my college women's
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: volleyball bracket, which I was looking I was almost gonna
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: do it last night at midnight or whatever you want
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: to call it that, but I didn't see the odds on.
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: I'm waiting for betting ons to come out. But I
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: did find a women's volleyball analytics site like a power
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: rating site, and they have the tournament projections with the percentages.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: So I actually might just use that to fill it
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: out and try to find, you know, leverage spots to
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: fade the market that way. So it'll be interesting, man.
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: So I might do that. It'll be a weird show,
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: it'll be a special I might do that. Maybe i'll
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: do it tonight. We'll see. So be on the lookout
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: for that. If you subscribe to me here, we will,
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: you know, if you subscribe to me here, then then
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: you'll see it come up. You'll get the notification for it.
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: Thank you, sir. Yep, I'll see you later, man. Yeah,
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: the toad in my throat and I am one myself.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: So yeah, there's a mini fridge behind me. That is true.
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: I used to have it stocked with a beer when
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: I was not sober, but now I am sober, and
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: I actually I have it stocked with non alcoholic beer now, man.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: So dude, I kind of like it because you like,
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: you want to experience like the craft of beer and
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: non alcoholic beers were lame for so long. We're's just like, oh,
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: you just get like, you know, whatever Heineken zero and whatever,
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 1: and it's like, yeah, it just tastes like a weaker
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: Heinech and it's pretty bad whatever, Like there's nothing to
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: do with here. But now so many people are going sober.
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: Now there's this whole industry with craft beer now and
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: they're making these things better and better to the point
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: where these are actually like good beers and they're non alcoholics.
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: So that's what I have in there now, man, I'm
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: actually enjoying it. So that's what I'm doing, that is
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: I have my fridge back there stocked with us some
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: of those. So yeah, whisper man. Yeah, we'll see, thank you, sir.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: Women's volleyball if you want to bet it. Yeah, the
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: show won't really have to do with betting. It'll be
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: filling out the bracket all of course, betting seeps into everything.
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: So yeah, the strategy of it, well, I'm gonna use
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: it's more like game theory, like bracket strategy, where you
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: want to like go against like you want to find
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: spots where the public is overpicking a certain team. So,
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: like I can tell you right now that everybody is
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: picking Nebraska to win this thing because they're undefeated, and
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: I'm I'll have to refresh my memory because I know
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: they were one of the best teams last year, but
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: I think that they didn't win it last year. If
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: I remember correct, I think Penn State might have want
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: to but I gotta go look, I gotta refresh my
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: memory on that. I might be wrong about that, but
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: what I do know is Nebraska. Everyone is picking them
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: like probably two hive of percent, even though they're a
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: dominant volleyball team. But I'll talk about it on my
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: on my show, Like, I think they're probably being overpicked.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 1: So it might be a situation where there might be
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an edge in picking some other
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: team to win it and fading the team that still
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: obviously has the best odds to get it done, Like
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: Nebraska is still that team. But yeah, I don't know
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: what does that mean they will not set up the team.
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: What does that mean? Oh, they're playing against Indians in volleyball.
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: I guess I don't know what that means exactly, But
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: all right, as long as it doesn't look like the
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: volleyball scene from Top Gun and then you're all good. Yeah,
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: women's volleyball. This is unfortunately not beach volleyball, though, this
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: is regular volleyball that they play indoors in arena, so
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: it's still fun to watch. There's still some hot college
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: women playing that volleyball there, but they're not wearing like,
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: you know, thongs and whatever like they are on the beach,
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: so they're wearing like tight shorts. But that's still not bad.
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I'll be back for it. Then peace out
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: for now, guys. Thanks