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NFL Week 13 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: that podcast from the Volume Podcast Network, the no doubt
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: number one betting podcast in the country. Matt Mitchell, is
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: that not right? That is currently very much correct? Congratulations,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: very much correct? Nice word for yeah, wow, that's crazy.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: A cord of the things that track which are impossible
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: to measure. But in the Apple charts there are no
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: betting podcasts higher than ours right now, Look at that Chad,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: are we peaking? Is this it? I don't know, Dondia.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I peeked in high school, so maybe I was wrong.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: Maybe this thing is. In December, you expect all this
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: to creat People are less interested, people are out of money.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Not our fans, not our fans, you know, in October,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: and then we made it all back in November because
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: we are the best sports bettors in the world. I
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: am Chad Noman from the Action Network Chief Content Officer.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: I am joined by my co host, my bff, my companion,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: professional better Signment Hunter Man. It's such a different feel
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: this week than last week. Last week I felt like
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: chaos with Thanksgiving everything going on this week, it felt
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: like it's been going on for like a month, just
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: because there's no holidays, there's nothing going on. It's very
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: different this week. On a Thursday, Oh, it was one
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: game to night Chad. Kind of an easy day. Yeah,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: buddy of mine, as you know, as you know, and
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: I'll share this with everybody else and Matt Mitchell knows.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: I was in the city on Tuesday, had meetings all
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: day Tuesday. Woke up Wednesday morning. Uh, did a really
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: great run through Lower Manhattan. It's always nice to do
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: a run in Manhattan and like a cool sunny day.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Um got back, took a shower, was eating breakfast. Got
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: a call that one of the people I was in
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: a meeting with tested positive for COVID on Wednesday morning.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: So I had to shut everything down, leave the city.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: I am now. The CDC guidelines say that if you
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: are vaccinated and you're not showing any symptoms, you can
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: walk around, wear a mask, you know, take the right precautions,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: and then test five to seven days later. That's the
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: CDC guidelines. Stacy K. Millman guidelines. Come home, don't talk
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: to anybody, don't even touch the dog. Get the funk upstairs.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: So I am ensconced on the third floor, where luckily
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: we've got a guest bedroom at bathroom in my office.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: This morning I woke up and I'm like, fucking bullshit,
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Like I can't be held down. Fuck the matriarchy. But
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: now I'm realizing I don't have to drive anyone anywhere.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: I don't have to feed anyone anything. I'm getting my
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: meals brought to me, and tonight I'm gonna watch the
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Knicks Bulls game. And like there's nothing I can do
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: to be with anybody because my wife refuses to let
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: me out of the third floor. She's just sliding the
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: foo uneath the door for you. Basically, she's bringing it
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: up on a tray, leaving at the top of the steps.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: I'm like, fucking Rapunzel. And then like if I come close,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: she's like, don't come close, Do not come close to me. Um.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: So that's what's happening in our house. Well, we're all
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: very thankful Chad that you don't have it, or we
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: don't know yet. We're hoping you don't have it. We're
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: hoping I don't have it. We're hoping we got a bit.
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  Speaker 1: We got a lot of decisions to make. Uh, let's
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: see as everybody knows. Uh, it's Thursday, which means we
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: will narrow down the slate. There's been a lot of
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: market news. There have been some injury updates, especially in
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: games that we talked about on Tuesday. We are smashing
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: it lately. The last five weeks. We went three and two,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: four and one, four and one, so eight and two,
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  Speaker 1: eleven and four quick math. But there's a lot of
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: news going on, so we should probably get to it. Reminder,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: our Simon says, bet was the Steelers, but you said
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: to wait on that, and I do believe it opened
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: it three and a half. Belief the line might have
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: gone up a little bit, Yeah, touch four and a half,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: a couple of pros that better down to four still
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: in five four and a half at some books before
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: we came on. I think it was at um four
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: four and a half on Fandal. So that line was
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: gonna keep moving kind of towards the Steelers just because
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: what it might be out. A couple of guys might
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: be out for the Steelers. So I told you you'll
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: get a better number if you just wait on that one.
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  Speaker 1: That was Simon says are FOXHLL was the New York Giants,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: of which there is injury news we will discuss, but
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: before we get to Simon. We recorded on Tuesday. We
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: posted on Tuesday. Between now and between then and now,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: you've probably had calls from our friends, sharp calls, Hello,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: who's there? I'm talking? They did. I would say more
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: of the calls this week were more about the favorites.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: We didn't take. A couple of guys comment and said
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: I was a little too heavy on the dogs, but
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: I mean that's natural. I love home dogs. We had
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: some big home dogs. Home dogs, love them, fulfilling that
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: that Philly post Thanksgiving accent. Home dogs are my john Yo.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: I feel like the biggest one I got called about
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: is people love the Eagles, so they thought you were
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: getting a good number at six and a half. Again,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: I didn't want to touch it because of the Hurts injury.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Apparently he's good to go, he will be playing, so
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: you can still get that number. A bunch of professionals
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: have taken that. A bunch of professionals have taken the
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Colts at a big number against this Houston team. Interesting,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: very interesting, So they liked it. It was at eight
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  Speaker 1: and a half, A couple of them bet that bet
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  Speaker 1: again at nine. Now I'm seeing at nine nine and
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: a half a couple of books. A lot of the
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  Speaker 1: agreement to for us this week, like we can dive
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: in all the different games, but they're there with us
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: about our picks with the Steelers. They they're even about
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: the Giants, and we can talk with the Giants that
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: did injury to Daniel Jones. That line shot up only
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: to five and a half. The pros didn't really care.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: They've already been it down a lot of books of
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  Speaker 1: four and a half. Some books you might still find
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: a five. But that's why it's a little scary bet
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: earlier in the week. There's a lot of unknowns and
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be a lot of line movement. And I
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: got burned a little the Giants. I took it at
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: three and a half and it shut all up to
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: five and a half. So I did take it again.
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  Speaker 1: But that just hurts where you didn't know that there
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: was a major nick injury to Daniel Jones, and that
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: was kind of a big news breaker. Why do you
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  Speaker 1: think they're on the egos so heavily. The simple fact
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  Speaker 1: that I don't I don't think they see the Jets,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: you know, covering against an Eagles team, that they're better
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  Speaker 1: than they showed against the Giants. I mean that that
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  Speaker 1: was one of those games, or Hurts just beat himself.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: The guy had three turnovers. Without those turnovers, that's a
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: much different closer game. So they probably looked at and said,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: you know, you're under. I'm getting under a touchdown with
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: a playoff team. That's what Again, these professionals we've talked
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: about all weeks, they've been betting the Eagles. They view
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: them as a playoff team. That's the simple fact. They
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: have it as a different metric where they think the
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: books are the value in them. So they've just been
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: betting them and it's worked out some weeks. Other weeks
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: we've seen it. They've just been againting burned by them.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: So it's interesting that they're still so committed to this team.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I really had no feel for this, but I'm I'm
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: in agreement with them that six and a half for
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: this Eagles team. That's a good number with Hurts playing,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: But most books are gonna be at seven. Now, Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: that number is gonna shoot up. Also, I was listening
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: to the Action Network podcast this morning. Uh Stucky also
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: loved the Eagles minus six and a half. Just thinks
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: this Jets team is trash And the truth is, like
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Zach Wilson grated out one of the worst quarterbacks in
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  Speaker 1: the NFL. Yeah, now he is. And that's what that
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: was so faithful by the Houston game. Houston, they literally
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: had to lose, like try to lose that game to
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: lose it, and that's what they pretty much did. So
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: that's what was so brual, Like you're up fourteen to
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: three on Zach Wilson, you should be good, but no,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: apparently not the Houston Texas. Well, we still owe people
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: a big balls better the week, which I'm sure we'll
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: get to today. A reminder for Scoot Roulette, Um, you
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: were on the Steelers plus three and a half. I
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: am on the Falcons plus ten and a half. Kind
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: of aunty about it now, but we're gonna dig into
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: all that. Let's start. Let's start with, um, we're gonna
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: touch on Thursday night real quick. I guess we might
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: as well like a lot of you know, cameras out
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Taysom Hill. Starting Tuesday, we were leaning Saints plus four
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: and a half. Currently, the line is it's actually up
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: to six right now. And I told people that's why
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: you waited on that it opened at six. I said
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: that was the better number. You should just wait because
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: you already missed that number. Now it's back up to
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: six and touch six and a half and a couple
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: of books for a little bit, and they got bet
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: back down to me. The simple bet here is just
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: bet the under. I don't really trust Taysom hill Um.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: It might he might be three and one towards the
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: under the last four games he started. Uh, just a
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: team that plays different when he's at quarterback. They kind
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: of run the ball more more threard th like three,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: third and two is just long drives with this team,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: and that's the only way they're gonna be able to
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: cover and beat this Dallas team. So if I had
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: a preferred play, I wouldn't take either side anymore. And
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: I can't feel great about this really banged up Saints team.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: And I guess you were getting a better number with Dallas,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: but I wouldn't have taken it because I don't really
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: trust Das either. So for me, if I'm just gonna
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: make a bet on this game, I'll be on the under.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get into the games that we are
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: going to think about, because I don't think this is
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: going to be one of our final five. On Tuesday,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: the Chargers were at three and a half. The line
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: has now moved to three and it might get even lower.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: So clearly it's a game that we were looking at
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: and we felt good about with the Chargers. I hope
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: people were able to get it. What's interesting is that
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: the line is moving, uh, and the money is and
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: and the bets are coming in on the Bengals. Yeah,
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: we talked that was just that was too much this
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: this number should be three. That's why we're saying the
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: value was on the three and a half. It's a
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: true coin flip game. Both quarterbacks have moments of brilliance
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: and moments of These guys are young, they're just making
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: a second year of mistakes. So I we again, if
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: we're just going off the basis, we love the Charges
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: team because simply because they just got really dominated by
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: a Denver team and since he just had one of
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: the best ones of the season. So we we took
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: that approach. We looked at it that way, and matchup wise,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: I like the matchup for this Chargers offense against this
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Bengals defense. So every little thing points to me liking
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: at three and a half. Still don't hate it at three.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: That's what we talked about. We just wanted the hook
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: just because it's a better number. If we wake up
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning and we're still feeling like we like the
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Charges and it's three and a half as our best five,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't hate it. But it's just it's just unlikely
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: because we have other lines we love a little more. Yeah,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: the Charges. This this feels like now that we are
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: back in our rhythm and we are not letting Twitter
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: get in our head, we are not letting things we've
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: seen in the field get in our head. We're seeing
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: the board as clearly as we're beautiful minding this thing right,
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Boom boom everywhere, Like it's just they're popping up, taking
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: a team that just had a bad beat off of
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: a Bengals team that just dominated their biggest rival. Of
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: course you're gonna take the Chargers. That alone especial, especially
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: when you were getting the best number of three and
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: a half. That's what that's the whole point. It's like,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: even when you lose these kind of games. You know
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: that you've got a good number, and you know that
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: your reasoningly was sound to take it like this is
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: again you just said it. This is the Bilo opportunity
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: on the Chargers. We're not going to talk about the
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Lions and the Vikings, Like, I just don't see us
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: putting the Lions at plus seven. It is that our
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: final five. We might a lot of pros love that
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: one them, So I mean we'll talk Sunday about that one. Yeah,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I've had a couple of guys they love that number.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: I mean they've been I would say most professionals have
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: been waiting for that seven and a half, Like they
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: just think if we keep waiting, the public will keep
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: betting in Minnesota. The fact that I haven't given to them,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: I do think a lot of them think it's interesting
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: that the book this wipe on the lines of the
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: books making a stand on and they're saying, no, we're
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: not giving you that seven and a half. Take the
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: seven or like the people are doing with the Vikings.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: They're just using it down to the one. So I
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: do think it's an interesting, interesting number. It's uh, I
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: would say, I I personally have not really touched Detroit's
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: money line since maybe week two. Like again we had
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: them week one, we got lucky with the back door.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I also had a decent amount of their money line,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: which just let on fire. I kind of took the
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: view I need to see this team win before I
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: would touch their money line again. I might actually put
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: their money line this week. I had a couple of
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: professionals say they like their money line as well. So
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: this is uh. One of the more sneakier bets this
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: week is looking at this Detroit team here because I think,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: let me like, what what is the logic here? What
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: is the math? What is the science other than the
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: fact is a home dog that hasn't won anything, that
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: is at a big number against a team that seems
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: to find ways every week to lose. Those are not
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: measurable week to week. What we are seeing on the
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: field is Dan Campbell calling plays, consistently, calling draws on
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: third and thirty two. A team that consistent yet consistently
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: gets into scenarios. A quarterback who was really terrible, like
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: truly awful and maybe playing with an injury, a defensive
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: secondary that is the worst in the league, um going
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: against feeling and justin Jefferson with no Dalvin Cook, so
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: the offense could be wide open. Tell me why, Tell
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: me why other than it's a big home dog. Professionals
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: would like this number. I'm not sure. I mean, I'm
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: with you and everything. I hate to Troy. I think
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: they're terrible. I think Dank Campbell is not like not
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: a way and over his head. But like you just said,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: a lot of their play calling is so questionable. And
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: this team, there's certain times you think they're giving up,
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: but they keep these games close. I think the professor
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: is looking from the standpoint that Vikings just don't blow
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: teams out. They play every game close. Detroit plays every
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: game close for the most part, and metrop wise, everything
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: you just said so true about this this Vikings offense.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: We're also gotta talk with the regressions coming for Kirk Cousins.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins has been playing way above his head all season,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: and we saw a little bit last week. I mean,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: he was just bad on third down. So I think
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: it's one of those people are banking on the public
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: is now off of Detroit. People have moved on, and
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: the book's taking a stand here, leaving this number at
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: seven like it doesn't make sense. Why isn't moved. I
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: know for a fact, it's making tea's like crazy. It's
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: been getting bet like crazy. People are only on this
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: Minnesota number. It's just sitting there at seven. So if
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: we if if it's Sunday and it's still sitting there,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna have to talk into it because that's
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: such a you gotta you gotta stand with the book there.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: The bookmakers are telling you we're taking a stand on
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: a number. You have to ride with them. They know
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: what they're doing. That's how they make big money on
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: the kind of games like this. That's terrible. There's mark
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: my words, Mark my words. Come Sunday, you will not
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: convince me to take the lines. If it drops down
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: a six and a half, I guarantee it. We have
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: it in. Oh my god, I'm gonna hate this. I'm
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: gonna hate on Sunday morning so much. The Giants since
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: we spoke. We liked the Giants at three and a
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: half when Daniel Jones was the quarterback. Mike Glennan now
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: the quarterback. The Giant shot up to five and a half.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Immediately get block down to four and a half. We
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: discussed this before, you know, as we were coming down
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: the air, still like the Giants here. Can't can't see
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: any reason why I shouldn't like the Giants. It's a
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: dolphins like they're riding the crest right now. To talk
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: about regression is due for regression. He's incredibly accurate right
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: now that defense has had some really nice games but
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: also some really lucky breaks. Explained to the people why
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: we will still love the Giants with Mike lennanin nothing
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: really changed. We were in bedding because of Daniel jenonals
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: were bending more so of the Giants defense and their
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: offensive scheme that this is gonna be a kind of
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: game that want to keep close. I thought it was
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: just really interesting that I dropped down to three. No
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: real reason for the bookmakers have dropped it down they
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: did from three and a half other than the professional
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: money coming in. We talked about it. Shot all up
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: the five and a half the pros. They said, I
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: don't know why you guys are moving it two and
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: a half points for Daniel Jones. They better right back
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: down to four and a half. So I still think
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: this number might come down to four. I think you
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: just nailed it. To kind of where the total is
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: also given away a lot of vibes where it's forty one.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: It's it's interesting they made it so low of a
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: forty one told what they're saying. Both these defenses are
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: really good. This is gonna be a low scoring, kind
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: of ugly battle game. And we're getting a lot of
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: points now with this Giants team and a low total.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Now we're getting four and a half. Not that it
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: reminds me exactly the game, but last year, Cole McCoy,
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: you're a good friend. He was on the Shiants team.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: They went to Seattle. The Seattle Seahawks were unbelievable last year.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: People forget that, and they were really dominating teams at home.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: The Giants went up there, I might have been eleven
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: point dog or a tend at a half point dog
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: with Cole McCoy and one outright a good defense playing
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: a team that was due for aggression and that Seahawks
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: team last year, so kind of the same thing point
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: you just talked about. This Miami team is just a
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: little inflated right now. I feel like we're getting an
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: extra point point and a half off of that, getting
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: now an extra half a point that they the bookmakers
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: are giving us kind of because they really downgraded this
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: team with Daniel Jones being out. But I don't think,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: you know, Jones has proven this season to be worth
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: anything more than a backup. Maybe a half point is fair,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: but what does he do game by game to really
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: be like, Okay, this is the reason the Giants won
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: this game. It's only happened maybe once this entire season.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Love this. There's nothing that we've discussed so far that
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: makes me think in the final five. I don't like
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the Giants still that five tol what of the fossil.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: We haven't gotten to the big balls better the week yet.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: I bet we're coming up to it, because we're gonna
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: talk about the Atlanta Falcons are now eleven point underdogs
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: at home against the Buccaneers, and we do have a
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: way for it pros Joe's alerts the bets on the
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the tickets on the Atlanta Falcons.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: That's interesting. Again, we talked about just like way too
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: many points in division on matchup where Tampa Bay is
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: not fully healthy. Back to back road games, they just
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: haven't been the same team on the road, and you know,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: I saw a crazy stat about Matt Ryan's record against
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: his Tampa Bay team. It's terrible. His career wise, he's
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: not been good against them. His career record against Tom
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: Brady is terrible. I don't think he's ever won a
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: game outright against Braiding his career, so kind of scary.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: I already been on their money line, and I've already
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: been Atlanta, but kind of just a really weird matchup
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: for this Campa Bay team. I'm not feeling as good
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: anymore about the money line because apparently Brady just has
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Matt Ryan's number. But eleven points now in divisional game,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: maybe there's a trap, but I'll walk into it, like
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: I have to bet this number. It's it's way too inflated.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: If this was nine, maybe you'd have me start thinking
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: a little bit about Tampa. But you're across the key
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: number in ten time and a half. We gotta we
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: gotta take we gotta take Atlanta here. Yeah, it's a
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: really big number. The one thing that scares me is
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: um Atlanta's defense is terrible. Their defensive line is terrible,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: their pass rush is terrible. Well, Tom Brady just be
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: able to stand there for forty four years and pick
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: apart this defense and every single time unless Atlanta scores
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: every time, if Matt Ryan does what he usually does,
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: which is throw a stupid pick or you know, they
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: have a stupid fumble or whatever it is, that's the
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: delta between fourteen and twenty one. And that's what this
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: game could be the entire game. Now we're gonna need luck.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's what burned us. We bet this earlier
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: in the season. It was, I believe, but the Atlanta
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: had the ball, like you just talked about, Matt Ryan
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: threw a pick six, then they went three and out.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: In the Tampa Bay scored i think two more touchdowns
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: in a row. So that that is definitely the back
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: of my mind. We we're open the trends that's been
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: good to us this year. It keeps going, which is
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: Brady fading Brady on the road and obviously didn't work
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: out last week for us, But I mean, that was
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: that was insane. Lenny running that touchdown and that that
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: was that was one of those usually we're gonna cover
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: that number. So again, if you're back in Tampa Bay,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: you're you're in the same standpoint as they went back
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: in Atlanta. You're gonna need some weird bounce to go
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: your way at the end of this game to cover
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: that number. Like you just talked about Matt Matt Ryan
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: is it's scary having this pig of a number with him. Oh. So,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: you know what we're gonna do. We're gonna make sound
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: professional decisions. The sound professional decision is to take the
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons as huge home underdogs. It is the sound
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: professional decision as the Colts visit the Texans is to
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: take the Colts plus ten. That Texans were eight and
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: a half on Tuesday. We liked it. I know you've
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: said you've gotten some reports that a lot of professionals
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Colts. The amount of money and
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: the amount of tickets on the Colts percent of the
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: money coming in on the Colts. That tells me that
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: there's professional money and public money on the Colts. What
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: are they seeing that we're not seeing that we would
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: do what is professional. They probably just loved the aspect
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: of the Colts play with ball control. This this is
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: the team that can dominate the run again, Carson, last week,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: that was I think I said at five terms. I
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: met the cold today of mean cars fon firsonally, but
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: they're up twenty four to one. Last week, he had
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: a strip sack, Brady goes down and scores a touchdown.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: He comes back, he throws a pick. He just had
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: three turnovers in the game. Is pretty much why the
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Colts didn't win it. So I think pros are looking, Okay,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: he's not gonna have that kind of game again against Houston.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: And this is a big number for Houston to cover.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: Where Taylor has played well since he's been back, but
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: he's just one man and we've seen it where he
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: hasn't really be able to carry this offense. Like he's
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: not a superstar, he's just a average, below average kind
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: of quarterback. So I think they're looking at the standpoint
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: that this Houston team, if they're getting under they're getting
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: under ten with the like again, the line was eight
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: and a half, it was nine nine a half. It's
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: still some books they probably just gonna have the ten
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: is the key number. So they're saying this cold team
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: one of the top teams in the a f C,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: a team that's that's gonna make the playoffs, most likely
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: playing against the Houston team that's gonna have, you know,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: a top three, top four pick. Well they won't because
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: they traded away. But um, I get what they're they're
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: looking at. We're like me and you, naturally we want
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: to take Houston. I will be taking Houston. This gets
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: a ten time a half. Nothing's changed. I'm still I
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: still like Houston. It's just gonna make me pause or
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be putting a decent amount of money
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: on this because of respect for these pros. Of pros
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: coming on big favorite, they have a good red on
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: that game. As Ali G says, respect alright, I don't
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: know that the way you describe it, I don't know
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: that the Texans maker of Final five, we won't get
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: a good number that numbers. That number is not gonna
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: be what we wanted to be. Right, It's an eight
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: and a half in the contest, probably because it locks
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday or Wednesday. It's already getting up to ten.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: It could go higher. So let's tre a couple of games. Like,
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: we've got four or five more games to walk through here,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: and I think it's important. It's a little more than
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: we usually have. It's cut check time. The Bears are
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: eight point dogs at home against Kyler Murray coming back.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: I guess Cliff Kingsbury, who won't deny that he might
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: go to Oklahoma A home team getting a massive amount
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: of points. This sets up to be take the Bears.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Why wouldn't I take the Bears? No? I hate this.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: I hate that like we have to do it. I
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: don't want to it all though, like I usually i'd
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: be pounding this one like I would be the same
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: view as Detroit or the same view as Houston. Um,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: because I now I'm getting a better number. But the
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: more I break down film on this that the fear
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: is if Arizona gets up two touchdowns, I don't know
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: how the Bears get back like they just naggy is
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: just has no imagination with the offense, and it's hard
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: to see how they put up points to keep up
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: with this Arizona team. So so one of those I'll
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: just wait on and I'll hope that maybe you guys
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: will have weather in Chicago, and then I'll be all
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: in on the Bears. If this is a running ball
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: control kind of game, I love the Bears. That's this
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: is the perfect stop for their offense. But there's no
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: real weather. It's a nice day in Chicago. Tyler Murray
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: doesn't have really worry about the elements. It's gonna be
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a route probably for this Cardinals team.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: They're just they have one of the best records of
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: football for a reason. This team is legit. They've been
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: winning games with Colt McCoy. Now you're getting arguably the
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: m VP back. It's a big upgrade. But we're just
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: hoping for weather because he's gonna be rusty. He's not
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: gonna want to be out there in the cold. Everything
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: is just it's really depending on the home field advantage
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: for this Bears team. That's why we, like you just said,
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: we want to take this number. This is a really
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: good number for a home team that they liked the
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: elements so well, we'll wait and see on this one.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: What the Bear is gonna need, Matt Mitchell, they are
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: going to need to bear down hit it. Raven Steelers
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: like we got to talk about it. The line has
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: moved from three and a half. It did exactly what
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: you said it would. You said, wait for this number,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: it's gonna move. It went up to four and a
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: half in some places. Still waiting on t J. Watten News,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: We're expecting Joe Hayden to be back. I wonder what
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin is going to say about that. I'm gonna
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: look at Too Real close today to see if you
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: highly conditioned, they're ready to go, you know what I mean,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: And if you're not, I'm gonna put you in the news.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: You got a Ravens team that beat up a Browns
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: team in in prime time, even though it was ugly.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: You got a Steelers team that just got throttled with
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger looking almost like a hundred year old man.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: When is this game not close? When is the Steelers
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Ravens game not a three point game? I'm so glad
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: you came around. That's the exact mentality you need for
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: this matchup, Chad. You just throw out all you throw
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: it all out. It doesn't matter. Lamar was havingn m
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: v P season and the Steelers were not good that year.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Their games are close there, It's just always close between
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: these teams. Historically, Lamar has been terrible against this Pittsburgh's team.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has always schemed up very well against Lamar. So
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: nothing changed. I love the number, so happy and moved up.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: I was really happy to get at some books to
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: touch five at one point. I love that you nailed it.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: We have to take Pittsburgh here as a home divisional
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: dog against the team where Lamar's had multiple interviews. Now
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: we talked about being six affected him. He doesn't feel
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: that he has the same strength. He isn't like he
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: says he was tired at the end of the game,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: which has never really happened for him. It's only happened
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: when he came back from COVID. I know that wasn't
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: co related. He was just sick. Uh the other week.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: You guys just had major stuff going on though. He
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: just hasn't been consistent. He hasn't been a practice consistent.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: It's gonna catch up to him. And you know, you
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: really did nail on the head. It's if this is
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: If it's three, If it's more than three, like we
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: were talking three and a half, we would have taken it.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: Now it's four and a half. Now it's four, we
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: still love it. We're still gonna take it. So nothing changed.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: We're gonna be on Pittsburgh this Sunday. Great stats that
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: I'm cribbing from Stuckey on the Action Network podcast. Since
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: John Harbad joined the team in two thousand eight. In
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: this series, thirteen and thirteen in the regular season average
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: margin of one. Twenty of the twenty six games decided
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: by one possession, seventeen and decided four or last four
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: have gone into overtime. Faves of three or more in
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: this series one thirteen and two against the spread. Read
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: that one more time. Faves of three or more are
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: one thirteen and two in this series. Those little secrets
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: that your boy had, I don't. I can't believe Stuck
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: gave it out. That's an old old school pros pros nos.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: So that's funny you give that out. Yeah, I didn't
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: want to dive in too much of That's why it
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: was gonna be my biggest bets. You just everyone knows
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: that number. You always take that, so that that's that's
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: great Stucky gave it out. But that's one of those
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: I keep for myself. Wow, look at you. It's just
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: a good secret. That's like, you just don't want the
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: public to know those kind of numbers because that the
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: public maybe next year that will remember that and they
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: will come in heavy on the dog in this matchup.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: I love it every time. It just flip flops whoever
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: it is the dog that year you take it. It's
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: greater than three and a half. It's I'm not a genius.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: I just keep it simple. Stupid is not that smart.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: Broncos visiting the Chiefs. This game has come down. It
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: was at ten, now it's a nine and a half.
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: I think we still like the Broncos. Here we go.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: It's like it's weighing on me though I told you
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: I I just was not gonna be happy betting it
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: because I just don't know what's up with Teddy. But Teddy,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: Teddy Covers is a dog, divisional dog. We're gonna be
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: taking it. And I saw they might have a little bit.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: They might have a chance of snow as well in
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: this game, which heavily slants towards Denver. Denver is a
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: run first kind of team, so that might be the
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: reason the numbers come down, just because that's what the
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: pros are bedding on. Because other than that, you just wait.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: No one knows what's going on with Teddy. So I mean,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: it's interesting the numbers dropped. I'm like, looking at it
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: right now, that's that's that is weird. It's moved down.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: But some of might I know something. Some of myight
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: know Teddy is full go. I just I don't have
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: word yet if he is gonna be definitely starting the Sunday.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: So you want to wait until we know I did
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: take it. I mean, if you can still grab a ten,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: you're here in this, Yeah, grab it just for a
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: little bit. They can buy out. Um if he's out,
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: because we talked about there's I don't care. If it's
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: number seventeen. I'm not taking Drew Lock. He's horrible. Oh
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: my god, forget Drew Lock. It's a lock. We're not
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: taking Drew Lock. That's where it is. Yeah. If it's
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: third and two and he just needs a completion, I
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: don't trust the kid and Bill throughout three yards, not
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: even close. I assume I have a feeling we're coming
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: up to Patriots and Bills, big balls better the week.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: The Bills make me throw your hand on something to
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: throw your hand back. Now the Bills. I'm making it happen.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: People hate this bet chat hearing it from everywhere. Everyone
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: hates it. Professionals around the Patriots, the public on the Patriots.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: What a gift, What a gift forgetting here with the Bills.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: Explain it to me. It was minus two and a half,
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: which was a treat. Now it's back up to minus three.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Mac has been great. I got no doubt that's Mac
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: Jones right now. He's a witch nipple quarterback. Now we've
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: hit the two high level of the hype. We've got
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: people posting tickets to them, been on him, m VP
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: of the league. We got just everyone's all in on.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: People are posting stats of him with Brady, like him
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: against Brady in their first seven games, and how he's
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: been better than Brady. Even the NFL is a completely
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: different game two years ago, So it's it's hit that level.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: You're not hearing anything about the Bills. If anything we're
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: hearing about the Bills is just negative stuff about how
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: they don't match up all against his Patriots team. I
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: love it. I love it so much that, like I
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: we don't. We usually don't do Mondays. I like being
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: over by Sunday. We might consider this one, like we might,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: I might have to play this one, but I completely
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: have this in our final five right now. You are
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: You have loved this from the beginning, And what I
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: know is when you love something as much as you
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: love this, I don't ask questions. I'm just like, all right,
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: we're going with it. No, No, you always ask questions.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: That's why I love you, wanna That's when I immediately,
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: when I saw this line, I knew that it was
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: just gonna be all Patriots money, and I knew it
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: was gonna be a primetime game and they're gonna be
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: on the road as a dog, and that's just not
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: where you want to be. As it better. Um, the
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: books know what they're doing here. So it is interesting
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: that it touched down to two and a half because
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: they're that that means the books needed some bills money, honestly.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: But then it went back up in a couple of minutes.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: I was like, Okay, now they're they're just testing the
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: water to see what the professionals are doing. The professionals
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: came in heavy on the two and a half, so
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: nothing's changed. We still love the bills of minus three.
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: Did you get the two and a half? Yeah, but
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: not for a lot. It's gonna take me, you know,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: forty five minutes to either get to fill or get
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: the e C. So I couldn't get on it quick enough.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: But if nothing's changed, I'm still waiting a little bit
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: because I'm hoping the pub will keep betting it down
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: because again we talked about the time the public is
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: gonna be putting this in teasers. They're gonna be putting
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: the Patriots money line and money line parlays like this
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: will be They just like this number a lot, So
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be keep betting this number all weekend. So
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: I do think you could get lucky. It could touch
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: back down to two and a half. Yea. Well, it
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: was also the fact that it's the Monday and night game.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: People are gonna be chasing, right. Oh yeah, I love that. Well, listen,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: that was our big balls better the week. I think
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: we're we're zeroing in on Giants, Falcons, Steelers, Broncos, Bills.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: If you asked me right now, I'd say that it's
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: very possible we take the Broncos out on Sunday and
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: put in the Chargers. That's probably to me the biggest
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: question mark, depending on Teddy. It's also possible we could
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: feel better about the Chargers than the Falcons, but I
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: think we feel good about the Giants, the Steelers, and
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: the Bills. And again, we didn't touch on a couple
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: of pros like just In case people are wondering about
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: it was that Washington number. A couple of different pros
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: I've talked to have hit that Washington number. That's why
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: it's just been sitting there. I think the books are
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: happy where it's at. They'll let the public keep betting
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: the Raiders and the pros will come in, they'll keep
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: taking Washington. So I don't have a great feel personally
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: for that game. I will, you know, eventually, probably end
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: up back back and this Washington team. I was just
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: hoping for a three, but it might not get there,
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: just because the professionals. Anytime it's touched it, I've just
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: pounded it. So it's one of those half um even
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: on the fence, I would not go with. Vegas Raiders
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: have been sitting at two and a half. Yeah, all week.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: All week, They're getting all the bets. So the fact
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: that it hasn't moved it is a pretty good indication
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: of how professionals are feeling about this and what the
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: bookmakers know will happen. And now a word from our
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  Speaker 1: back to the show. Let's get to the money line. Parlay.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: A lot of ugly dogs out there heartbroken about the Saints.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: I really wanted to put that man. It's always fun
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: starting one of these things off on Thursday night. But
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: just don't. Just don't see how this team is gonna
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: win now with all the guys that have out on offense,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: it's Kamar both their offensive tackles. They're starting Taysom Hill,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: who hasn't played in weeks. Um I just don't like
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: the vibe. So I'll stay away from the Thursday. Let's
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: go to the Sunday slate for our money line round Robin.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: People are gonna hate it, but we gotta do it.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Giants with the backup quarterback on the road, love it. Lines.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: Haven't won a game yet this year. I'm ben it
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: this week. I know Chad aides it. I'm doing it.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: It's it feels like it's that week. No one's gonna
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: be doing it. That's why we should be doing it.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: But it has felt every single week like the lines
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: of the team. I could see it. I could see it.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: I could see it. And this is the week where
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: nobody can just been so bad. Yeah, you see what
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: I'm coming from. Now, that's why we have to do it.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: So we got Giants lines, me and Chad touch and
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: I like the Chargers. I know it's short now, it's
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: only down to UM plus one fifty. Still like it.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Still think you're getting ge value in the amount. Run Robin,
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: stay away from the Jaguars. I'll be doing that one personally.
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: You can stay away. I'll throw that out Washington football team.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: They're a short one too. This feels safe though. Plus
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: and the capitalut How do we not go Stealers the Ravens.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: That feels like a great fifth option there. So if
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: you if you're looking for a juice here one I'm
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: I am doing the Chargers, I mean not Chargers, the
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Jaguars because something to me just feels wrong with Stafford.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna be in that number. They might
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: lose by thirty points. This is the perfect time for
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: this Rams team to get right against a bad team.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: At the same time, Stafford is bad. This guy is
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: bad right now. Me and Chad we did not trust
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: him coming to the year. We talked all summer about
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: professionals coming in on them. We just stayed away from it.
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: We did not trust this Rams team. It looks like
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: we might be right. Stafford just might not be that
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: kind of guy. So I will be taking this this
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: Jaguars team. But I'm not making people do it. I
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: told people on the show, I will not force in
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: my Jaguars bets anymore. So I get if you don't
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: want in your round robin. Well, look, you should explain
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: to people though, because it is interesting. You bet high dollars,
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: high volume. The NFL season is your work season, so
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: you're going to bet every game and a lot of
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: the derivatives in every single game, money lines, totals, first
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: halfs whatever it is, um sides. It's not like your
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: love with every bet you make. And Sean Zarrillo, the
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: baseball antist for the Action Network, talks about this all
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: the time. You know, he models every single baseball game.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: If he can find a tiny one percent edge, a
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: two percent edge from his model versus what the odds
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: are showing, that is worth making a bet on because
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: in the long term those are r o I positive.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: So to you when you're saying I'm throwing the Jaguars
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: in there, I don't love the Jaguars, but at this number,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: with what I'm seeing on the other side, it's a
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: combination of player performance and math. The value is there.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Doesn't mean you expected to win, but you expect in
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: the long term to win those bets more often than
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: you lose them, and that's why you decide to do that.
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: I never in my wilder streams how this Jaguars team
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: was ever going to beat the Bills. But I had
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: been modeled at nine. They were giving me I think
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: it was thirteen. That's four points. That's an extra plus
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: one fifty plus two hundred on the moneyline as well.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: So that's that's what Chad's pretty much breaking down there.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: It's like I don't believe it either. I mean, that's
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: that's the biggest issue I think we were run into,
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: is they think they know the football is one of
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: the most random games. That's why I feel like we
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: all love it. It's any given Sundays, the saying you
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: really never know. Um, So that's how I feel about
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars team. There's no scenari I have seen this
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: team winning. Trevor Lawrence, he looks lost right now. There there,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: they're coaching staff there, there were like we joked about
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: they might be a Notre Dame or wherever comes Sunday.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: So it's a lot of drama going to Jaguars. But
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: just on paper, yeah, I love the matchup. This is
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: way too many points for a Ramps team that they
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: have not proven to be worthy of being favored by
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: thirteen points at home against the Jaguars. And that's not
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: a terribles people think they are. So it's it's gross,
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: but that's what we do here. We hold our nose
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: and we take these bets. I don't love the randomness.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: The randomness makes me sick. And every single time there's
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: a holding call, a pass, interference call, an interception, a
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: draw run for a touchdown from eighty yards to end
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: a half and kill your fucking total, that makes me
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: want to quarantine myself. No. I mean, I try not
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: to be too much on the reps here because people
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: probably get sick of that. But this year it's it's
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: been it's been really bad. It's really egregious. Yeah, So
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: I do think there areguing major changes coming down the future,
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: just because of all the money that the NFL is
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: taking in with sports betting. Now, all right, let's do
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: a seviva. Where are savva the survivor pool pick of
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: the week. The biggest ones are stay aways at this point,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: where where we're gonna tell people to stay away from?
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: I would stay away from the vikings. The fact that
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: so many professionals have talked to me about betting Detroit's
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: money line. I haven't heard it all season, honestly, Like
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: they were on the barriers last week money line against them,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: they didn't they've heard of the stat that I think
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: it was what twelve and oh road favorites against the
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: lines on the money line, So stay away from the Vikings.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: I just don't like it. Matroplies this week. If you
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: have it, Colts Texans feels like a safe one. We're
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: Renny talked about Brady's career. I don't think he's ever
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: lost to Matt Ryan, but in years feel pretty safe. Man.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: I would stay away from RAMS. I know it's a
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: big number and some people might been waiting to use
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: a RAMS this position. I just can't do it. Just
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: their mojo is so bad right now. I don't trust it.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: But if you're stuck and you have to, I get it.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: The RAMS then their percentage wise, they have over seventy
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: eight percent chance winning straight up against this Jaguars team,
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: So besides Tampa Bay, that's the best odds right now
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: to win straight off. You're never judging, And what I
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: mean by that is I get why you're doing it.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: I understand. I can't hate on you for it. You
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: want to take the RAMS, I know why. I get it.
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: It's never like you idiot, how could you do that.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: I'm just trying to warn people because it's like I've
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: been there. I know the feeling where it feels too good.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: To be true. And that's that's just my fear of
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: this RAMS one. I know a couple of guys who
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: have been saving the RAMS just for this week, but
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: I just would not do. I just have bad feeling
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: about it. Oh in chiefs Andy Redolfs bye week. So
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you what it is. Sixteen and eleven against
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: the spread, or straight up sixteen or eleven against the spread.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: That's that's what that's what quit your day job numbers. Though.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: That's a good number. It is true. So yeah, it's
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: against the spread. I'm assuming straight up those records prettydamn good.
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: So me and Chad we got burned in this exact
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: situation against this Denver team is a double digit underdog.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: So I'm not going to recommend anyone, alright. So look,
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: if you've got you know, if you're thinking about Tampa,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: cults are Tampa. That's what it feels like. You've got.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: Cults are Tampa. Those are your choices. Stay away from
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: the Rams, stay away from the vikings, all right, quick
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: upday for you guys. The Action Network just launched a
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: new hockey betting podcast called Line Change. It's hosted by
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: our editor Mike Leeboff and the professional hockey better known
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: as so many sports, and they cover the whole an
• 44:51
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• 44:54
  Speaker 1: betting the pucks, check out line change with new episodes
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: dropping at ten am Eastern every two Tuesday and Thursday. Okay,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: this has been the favorites from the Volume podcast network.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: We are the number one sports betting trill of the country.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman. He is Simon Hunter producer Matt Mitchell.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, from Apple podcast, wherever you get
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: your podcasts. Moved back on Tuesday. I love you