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How will the Fed handle the six big challenges ahead in 2026? · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: and fall Lane.
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  Speaker 2: Good morning, Welcome back to the Financial Exchange. We've got
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  Speaker 2: markets weakening as we open up the eleven o'clock hour.
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  Speaker 2: Dow still up a third of a percent, but the
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  Speaker 2: SMP and NASDAC barely holding on to their gains. NASDAK
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  Speaker 2: now up less than a tenth of a percent, the
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  Speaker 2: SMP less than a fifth of one percent. Will keep
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  Speaker 2: you covered throughout the show today. The official arbiters are in.
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  Speaker 2: We measured it. We did not get a Santa Claus
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  Speaker 2: rally in twenty twenty five into twenty twenty six. That
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  Speaker 2: marks the third year in a row of the SMP
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  Speaker 2: not delivering on the Santa Claus promise, which for the
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  Speaker 2: records is the first two trading days of the following
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  Speaker 2: year and the five last days of the previous year.
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  Speaker 2: Also marks a third year in a row we haven't
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  Speaker 2: gotten a Santa Claus rally, meaning that it must signify
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  Speaker 2: no about the future, because the last three years, if
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  Speaker 2: I recall, would be twenty twenty five, twenty twenty four,
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  Speaker 2: and twenty twenty three, all of which looked like pretty
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  Speaker 2: solid years in stocks. From what I can understand, I
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  Speaker 2: believe the S and P was up something like eighty
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  Speaker 2: percent cumulatively over those three years, So we can put
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  Speaker 2: that one to bed. But if you are looking for
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  Speaker 2: that year end bump, it did not quite deliver. We
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  Speaker 2: do have a number of economic data points coming out
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  Speaker 2: this week, specifically about the labor market that we're going
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  Speaker 2: to be diving into. Tomorrow, we will receive the ADP
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  Speaker 2: Employment Report before markets open. After markets open, will get
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  Speaker 2: the JOLTS Report. This is the job Opening's Labor Turnover Survey.
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  Speaker 2: A lot of eyes on that one to trying to
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  Speaker 2: figure out how much the labor market has loosened in
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  Speaker 2: terms of employers looking for employees. Thursday, we will get
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  Speaker 2: jobless claims at eight thirty am. And then Friday is
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  Speaker 2: the big one. Friday, you've got the monthly Jobs report
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  Speaker 2: for December, arguably the first normalized one that we've seen
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  Speaker 2: since the government shut down. Of all of the data
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  Speaker 2: points that I've mentioned, one key statistic in that report
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  Speaker 2: is I think going to be the most important of
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  Speaker 2: the week, which is the unemployment rate. That is the
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  Speaker 2: one that I think all eyes are going to be on.
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  Speaker 2: Certainly all eyes at the Fed have mentioned that they
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  Speaker 2: will be on.
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  Speaker 3: The unemployment rate.
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  Speaker 2: Median forecast is for the excuse me, the unemployment rate
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  Speaker 2: to come in at four point five percent. It bumped
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  Speaker 2: up to four point six in the most recent readings,
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  Speaker 2: so we will see what we get. But clearly we've
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  Speaker 2: been on a pace of slower job increases over the
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  Speaker 2: course of the last few weeks. We obviously have the
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  Speaker 2: backdrop of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro on trial in New
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  Speaker 2: York City and the implications there for oil market stability
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  Speaker 2: in the region, retaliation against the United States. I think
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  Speaker 2: all of those things are on the table, but for
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  Speaker 2: the moment, from a pure markets perspective, not much has
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  Speaker 2: seemingly changed in the wake of that news from Friday
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  Speaker 2: night Saturday morning.
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  Speaker 3: Anything else catching.
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  Speaker 2: Your eye in early early trading or early action so
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  Speaker 2: far in twenty twenty six, Pall, No.
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  Speaker 4: The last thing I'll know is Tuesday. We'll get an
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  Speaker 4: inflation report too. That's next week to kind of wrap
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  Speaker 4: up some of the important economic reports, though obviously there's
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  Speaker 4: much more focus on the labor market heading into twenty
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  Speaker 4: six than inflation.
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  Speaker 2: Other key events in the early part of this year,
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  Speaker 2: we will be hearing from the Supreme Court on the
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  Speaker 2: legality of the White House's tariffs or the bulk of
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  Speaker 2: the White House's tariffs anyway, So that ruling could really
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  Speaker 2: come down any day now and would pretty dramatically reshape
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  Speaker 2: a number of the things that have been going on
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  Speaker 2: this year in terms of trade deals that have been
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  Speaker 2: written with other nations, whether or not teriffs would need
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: to be reimbursed two companies that have been collected in
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  Speaker 2: the tens of billions of dollars so far this year.
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  Speaker 2: So we shall see how that all develops. The next
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  Speaker 2: Federal Reserve meeting occurs on January twenty eighth. J Powell
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  Speaker 2: will preside over three more Federal Reserve meetings twenty eighth
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  Speaker 2: of January, eighteenth of March, twenty ninth of April, and
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  Speaker 2: then he's out, and we've got the one of the
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  Speaker 2: two Kevin's to replace him. We don't know which one yet,
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  Speaker 2: but either Kevin Hasset or Kevin worsh look like they
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  Speaker 2: are the most likely candidates for Federal Reserve after Jay.
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  Speaker 2: And Bill Dudley, a former Federal Reserve Bank president, has
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  Speaker 2: a piece on the Big Challenges for twenty twenty six
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  Speaker 2: for the Fed. So I guess let's run through him,
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  Speaker 2: and then you see if we agree with Bill on
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  Speaker 2: his viewpoint. So number one he lists is the independence
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  Speaker 2: of the Fed, and we'll get back to that. But
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  Speaker 2: the President has very clearly given his opinion that he
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  Speaker 2: believes he should have influence over interest rates. He is
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  Speaker 2: nominating somebody who has not explicitly agreed that the president
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  Speaker 2: should have had views, but very much has aligned their
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  Speaker 2: own views with the President's views on the economy and
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  Speaker 2: interest rates. Aside from the independence piece, interest rates themselves
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  Speaker 2: will be obviously a big item for twenty twenty six.
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  Speaker 2: The Fed has been on a trend of downward moves
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  Speaker 2: on the benchmark interest rates. Will that continue? One that
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  Speaker 2: oftentimes flies under the radar of the general public. The
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  Speaker 2: Fed has a six point six trillion dollars balance sheet,
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  Speaker 2: basically bonds that they bought in open market operations over
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  Speaker 2: the course the last few years and dramatically increase those
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  Speaker 2: operations during COVID and then before that during the Great Recession.
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  Speaker 2: Bank supervision has been on focus since twenty twenty three
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  Speaker 2: and the Silicon Valley bank crisis.
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  Speaker 3: And then he listened to other couple.
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  Speaker 2: You know, stable coins are getting more and more popularity,
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  Speaker 2: so does the Federal reserve system need to go and
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  Speaker 2: to deal with them. And then the last one he
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  Speaker 2: puts on here is the Fed's monetary policy framework. So
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  Speaker 2: I don't know that all of these are going to
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  Speaker 2: be headliners. I do think that independence and interest rates
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  Speaker 2: are clearly going to be setting the stage for twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty six. But honestly, I'm not sure that independence ends
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  Speaker 2: up being as big an issue as as people are
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  Speaker 2: I supposing, because right now the independence threat is really
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  Speaker 2: coming at j Powell, who tends to disagree with the
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  Speaker 2: President pretty dramatically on a number of items, and you're
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  Speaker 2: likely to have somebody in there that is going to
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  Speaker 2: agree with the President on pretty much all items that
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  Speaker 2: might be getting I think really what the FED might
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  Speaker 2: have at the end of this is not so much
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  Speaker 2: an independence issue as it might have a credibility issue.
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  Speaker 4: Well yeah, I think those don't Those kind of go
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  Speaker 4: hand in hand.
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  Speaker 3: A little bit. I suppose I might be splitting hairs because.
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  Speaker 4: Now when you see FED policy coming in in the spring,
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  Speaker 4: after the new chair is elected, of course he's going
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  Speaker 4: to have to convince the committee to move in lockstep
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  Speaker 4: with what he wants to do. But there's always going
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  Speaker 4: to there perhaps could be. I should say some skepticism
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  Speaker 4: as to if they were to come out in JUNI
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  Speaker 4: or July and cut by fifty basis points.
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  Speaker 5: Sure is this.
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  Speaker 4: Because the FED chair believes it or the whole committee
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  Speaker 4: is on board today?
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  Speaker 2: I think the credibility piece why everybody cares, like, why
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  Speaker 2: does the FED need to be independent? We talk about
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  Speaker 2: this all the time. The Fed's actual policies, they act
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  Speaker 2: with a long lag. When the FED hiked interest rates
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  Speaker 2: by five percent in the early twenty twenties e twentyes,
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  Speaker 2: that seemed weird to say, like we're in twenty twenty six.
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  Speaker 2: That was the early twenty twenties. The actual effects on
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  Speaker 2: the economy took a long time, right, You didn't see
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  Speaker 2: immediately mortgage rates on average shoot up to six percent.
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  Speaker 2: It took a while because people had to actually buy
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  Speaker 2: homes and get into that normal groove of things. The
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  Speaker 2: policy that the FED has that does not take a
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  Speaker 2: long time is their weight of just convincing the American
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  Speaker 2: public of their path. So when the FED comes out
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  Speaker 2: and says that we are going to quash inflation, We're
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  Speaker 2: going to crush it and there's going to be no
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  Speaker 2: more inflation, people tend to believe them. They tend to
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  Speaker 2: believe that they have the ability to do so and
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  Speaker 2: that they are going to fix the problem. Back during
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  Speaker 2: the Great Financial Crisis, when the FED said we're going
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  Speaker 2: to backstop this thing and make sure that the financial
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  Speaker 2: system doesn't fall apart, that faith itself and the credibility
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  Speaker 2: of the FED is what let us out of some
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  Speaker 2: of those situations.
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  Speaker 3: If that is hindered in some way.
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  Speaker 2: Because people don't believe it anymore, they don't believe that
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  Speaker 2: their true goal is to question inflation and to keep
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  Speaker 2: the economy float, then it leads to real problems with
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  Speaker 2: how the policy actually works because a lot of the
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  Speaker 2: effects of their policy really come from what they say
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  Speaker 2: rather than what they do.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, one more instance to add.
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  Speaker 4: The regional banking crisis in with Silicon Valley Bank was
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  Speaker 4: another example of the Federal Reserve coming in and backstopping
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  Speaker 4: what was an unstable industry for the regional banks at
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  Speaker 4: that point in time.
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  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break when we come back. Matt
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  Speaker 2: Gangnoni's the CEO of the Main Policy Institute, also the
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  Speaker 2: host of the morning show on WGA and up in Portland, Maine.
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  Speaker 2: You gonna be joining us for a minimum wage discussion.
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  Speaker 2: As nineteen states across the country increase their minimum wage
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  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six, We'll be right back with Matt.
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  Speaker 2: Join us now is Matt Gangnoni's the CEO of the
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: Main Policy Institute. He's also the host of the morning
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  Speaker 2: news show on Portland's largest talk radio station, WGA, and
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  Speaker 2: joins us now to talk about minimum wage changes across
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  Speaker 2: the country and in Maine itself.
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  Speaker 3: Matt, thanks for joining us.
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  Speaker 1: It's pleasure to be here as always, so invite Matt.
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  Speaker 2: Your career has spanned both economics and politics, and I
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  Speaker 2: guess my first question for you is the minimum wage
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  Speaker 2: debate throughout most of my life was mainly, at least
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  Speaker 2: from a political perspective, was a bit left versus right,
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  Speaker 2: and I think that that's gotten a little bit more
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  Speaker 2: muddled today.
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  Speaker 3: Where does minimum wage really.
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  Speaker 2: Live today in the eyes of the average voter and
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  Speaker 2: where they stand politically.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a great question.
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  Speaker 6: Actually, it's always been a very populist type of issue.
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  Speaker 6: So while I think you're right in saying that there
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  Speaker 6: was a left right element to it in market advocates
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  Speaker 6: versus people that are in favor of more sort of
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  Speaker 6: socialized economy stuff, I think that generally speaking, the average
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  Speaker 6: voter has been very ortive overall of minimum wage you know,
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  Speaker 6: not only existing but rising along with time to try
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  Speaker 6: to meet the demands of inflation. So I think that's
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  Speaker 6: all the more true now as the Republican Party has
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  Speaker 6: taken a more populist personality over the last several years.
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  Speaker 6: I think you'll find that the economics of the current
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  Speaker 6: right wing movement are a great deal more accepting of
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  Speaker 6: things like minimum wage and minimum wage being set in
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  Speaker 6: any particular you know number that they think makes sense.
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  Speaker 6: But at the same time, I think there still is
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  Speaker 6: a powerful strain of of you know, advocates of free
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  Speaker 6: markets that still exist out there that have a significant
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  Speaker 6: amount of pushback to what you're seeing happen in a
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  Speaker 6: lot of states and a lot of cities across the country.
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  Speaker 2: Your own state obviously has a minimum wage. In fact, Portland,
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  Speaker 2: the city itself, has a separate higher minimum wage. Have
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  Speaker 2: you looked at the effects there of won the state
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  Speaker 2: level minimum wage and then the bifurcation of a city
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  Speaker 2: level and state level minimum wage and what that does
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  Speaker 2: to surrounding towns and areas and work in those areas.
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  Speaker 6: No, yeah, no, I mean we not only have the
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  Speaker 6: sort of bifurcated minimum wage you're talking about, we also
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  Speaker 6: tie ours to inflation, so as the inflation rate goes up,
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  Speaker 6: there's an automatic increase that happens in the state of Maine,
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  Speaker 6: so that we don't have to go through the process
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  Speaker 6: of going through the legislature and you know, passing legislation
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  Speaker 6: and whatnot, which has meant that the minimum wage has
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  Speaker 6: continued to crawl up rather significantly over the course of
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  Speaker 6: many years. The effect is the same that you see anywhere.
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  Speaker 6: Minimum wages, broadly speaking, are wage controls, and ultimately they
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  Speaker 6: raise prices in terms of labor. So as that happens,
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  Speaker 6: you have a higher expense for people that have these
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  Speaker 6: employees on their books, which means they hire fewer people
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  Speaker 6: and they work fewer hours and ultimately get less productivity
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  Speaker 6: out of out of those workers. So it's one of
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  Speaker 6: those one of many policies that looks and sounds good,
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  Speaker 6: but when you get into the second and third order
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  Speaker 6: effects of that policy, you learn that there's all this
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  Speaker 6: significant amount of unintended consequences that go along with them.
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  Speaker 5: And you see that in Portland for sure.
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  Speaker 2: When I hear of policies like that, it kind of
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  Speaker 2: reminds me of the debate we had here in Massachusetts
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  Speaker 2: on the millionaire's tax. And in my mind, it was
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  Speaker 2: so easy for a business, for example, to just say, okay,
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  Speaker 2: well I can go to the New Hampshire border and
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  Speaker 2: reincorporate over there. Is that something you see when you
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  Speaker 2: talk about very localized minimum wages, for instance, I'm sure
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  Speaker 2: it's relatively easy for a restaurant or another business to
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  Speaker 2: relocate from Portland to South Portland or another city surrounding it.
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  Speaker 6: Yes, although I will say that the surrounding communities are
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  Speaker 6: starting to also kind of keep up with that minimum
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  Speaker 6: wage rate. So if you're interested in moving, sometimes you
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  Speaker 6: might want to move two or three or four towns away,
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  Speaker 6: but the greater Portland area is large enough, and you know,
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  Speaker 6: sort of the nature of it is what it is,
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  Speaker 6: so that it makes it very easy to move to
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  Speaker 6: a Scarborough or a Westbrook or something like that. And
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  Speaker 6: that's absolutely what you see people doing. But I actually
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  Speaker 6: would like to highlight the fact that even for those
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  Speaker 6: who don't do it, it has a negative economic consequence
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  Speaker 6: for that business and for frankly labor in the in
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  Speaker 6: the city as well.
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  Speaker 5: Even for those who stay.
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  Speaker 6: I mean, when you when you're paying that much above
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  Speaker 6: sort of the actual market rate for labor, it means
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  Speaker 6: that fewer people who are employed. It means that the
• 15:18
  Speaker 6: business has less people working on their behalf trying to,
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  Speaker 6: you know, make the business as good as it possibly
• 15:24
  Speaker 6: can be. It has real economic consequences for profits which
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: start convincing people, hey, maybe I don't want to start
• 15:31
  Speaker 6: a business in this city, you know, and then they
• 15:34
  Speaker 6: have lower economic productivity as a result. There's again a
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  Speaker 6: lot of second and third leorder effects that come with this,
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  Speaker 6: even for those who stay.
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  Speaker 2: More workers in the US now have a minimum wage
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: of fifteen dollars or higher than those in areas where
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: the minimum wage is still the federal minimum of seven
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: to twenty five. I don't hear minimum wage being talked
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  Speaker 2: about a lot on the campaign trail, but you, you know,
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  Speaker 2: you spoke to the populist movement within the Republican Party.
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  Speaker 2: Do you think this is an issue that gets onto
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  Speaker 2: the calendar in the next five to ten years at
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  Speaker 2: a federal level with changes to the minimum wage.
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  Speaker 6: It's possible, but I honestly doubt it. I think that
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  Speaker 6: there is Despite the changes that you've seen in the
• 16:15
  Speaker 6: politics of this country in the last decade or so,
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  Speaker 6: there's still, I think a resistance in the political class
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  Speaker 6: to really kind of go down that road. Because in Congress,
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  Speaker 6: there are a great deal of the Republicans that are
• 16:29
  Speaker 6: in the Senate in the House that are still rather
• 16:31
  Speaker 6: free market oriented, so they're resist and to do.
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  Speaker 5: This kind of thing.
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  Speaker 6: And even those that are more populist in personality ultimately
• 16:40
  Speaker 6: have other things that they care about a lot more.
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  Speaker 6: You know, they're much more cultural battles and immigration issues
• 16:46
  Speaker 6: and stuff on DEI.
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  Speaker 5: Woke stuff and all that.
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  Speaker 6: And while minimum wage might be more acceptable to them
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  Speaker 6: than in the past. It's not like the thing that
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  Speaker 6: they're they're charging up the hillover. So I don't know
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  Speaker 6: if you're going to see much of a federal push
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  Speaker 6: in this regard particular, because the states are doing what
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  Speaker 6: they're doing and raising those raids. So what I just
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  Speaker 6: find interesting about this entire debate is that I remember
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  Speaker 6: not that long ago when it was the fight for fifteen,
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  Speaker 6: and that was the end all be all of minimum
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  Speaker 6: wage fights, and it was going to solve all of
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  Speaker 6: our problems. And you know, a lot of states now
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  Speaker 6: are at that level or even higher.
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  Speaker 3: Turns out, we still have affordability problems, you.
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  Speaker 6: Have worse supportability problems. This is significantly worse than it
• 17:23
  Speaker 6: used to be, and it's because inflation always eats away
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: at that and as things are more expensive, that means
• 17:30
  Speaker 6: that the prices that people charge at convenience stores goes
• 17:33
  Speaker 6: up because their labor costs have gone up. You're always
• 17:35
  Speaker 6: chasing a car you never catch if you're a dog,
• 17:39
  Speaker 6: And I think that that's ultimately the story of this
• 17:41
  Speaker 6: fifteen is no longer sufficient. So now it's going to
• 17:43
  Speaker 6: be twenty five. When you get to twenty five, that
• 17:45
  Speaker 6: won't be enough.
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: It never ends.
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: Mc daniel is the CEO of the Main Policy Institute,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: host of the Morning show on WGA, and joining to
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: today talk about changes to the minimum wage across the country. Thanks, Mat,
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: I appreciate it.
• 17:58
  Speaker 7: You bet all right for trivia here on the Financial
• 18:01
  Speaker 7: Exchange and on this day. Back in nineteen seventy five,
• 18:03
  Speaker 7: Wheel of Fortune debuted on NBC. Pat Sajak served as
• 18:08
  Speaker 7: the longest tenured host of the show beforehanding the reins
• 18:12
  Speaker 7: over to Ryan Seacrest. So our trivia question today, who
• 18:16
  Speaker 7: is the original host of Wheel of Fortune? Once again?
• 18:19
  Speaker 7: Who is the original host of Will of Fortune? Be
• 18:24
  Speaker 7: the fifth person today to text us at six one
• 18:27
  Speaker 7: seven three six to two thirteen eighty five with the
• 18:29
  Speaker 7: correct answer along with the keyword trivia, and you win
• 18:32
  Speaker 7: a Financial Exchange Show T shirt.
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: Once again.
• 18:36
  Speaker 7: The fifth correct response to text us to the number
• 18:39
  Speaker 7: six one seven three six to two thirteen eighty five
• 18:42
  Speaker 7: with the correct answer along with the keyword trivia, We'll
• 18:45
  Speaker 7: win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
• 18:49
  Speaker 7: Exchange Show dot com.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: By the way, we can't discuss the minimum wage without
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: mentioning my favorite minimum wage policy across the whole country,
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: which is California's because they have a minimum wage and
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: then they have a fast foodie. I still don't know
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: that enough time has gone by to really measure this,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: but again, California has a sixteen fifty statewide minimum wage,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: but if you work for a fast food restaurant, you
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: get twenty. So congratulations to those who are working at
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: Mickeyd's in California and making more than other minimum wage rolls.
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: Quick break, Wall Street Watch coming up.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Next, bringing the latest financial news straight.
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: To your radio.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch. A complete
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: look at what's moving market so far today right here
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 20:00
  Speaker 7: Markets trading modestly higher one day after the Dow closed
• 20:03
  Speaker 7: at a record high yesterday. At the moment, the Dow
• 20:07
  Speaker 7: is up by nearly half a percent, or two hundred
• 20:09
  Speaker 7: and eighteen points. SMP five hundred up over two tenths
• 20:13
  Speaker 7: of a percent or fifteen points higher. NASDAC up just
• 20:16
  Speaker 7: over a tenth of a percent or thirty three points higher.
• 20:19
  Speaker 7: Rusted two thousand is also up over a tenth of
• 20:21
  Speaker 7: a percent. Tenure Treasure reeled up two basis points at
• 20:25
  Speaker 7: four point one nine to one percent day, and crude
• 20:27
  Speaker 7: oil down about half a percent, trading at fifty eight
• 20:31
  Speaker 7: dollars a barrel after early gains, and Video shares are
• 20:34
  Speaker 7: now only edging higher after the AI and chip Giant
• 20:38
  Speaker 7: said it would begin shipping new in faster AI chips
• 20:41
  Speaker 7: yesterday at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. The
• 20:44
  Speaker 7: rubenships are being manufactured and will be shipped two customers
• 20:48
  Speaker 7: including Microsoft and Amazon, in the second half of the year,
• 20:52
  Speaker 7: and Video also unveiled unveiled new autonomous vehicle software. Meanwhile,
• 20:58
  Speaker 7: competitor AMD also now it's a new chip at CEES
• 21:01
  Speaker 7: for use in smaller corporate data centers. However, am D
• 21:05
  Speaker 7: shares are now down over three percent Elsewhere, Metas said
• 21:08
  Speaker 7: this morning that it's delaying the international expansion of its
• 21:12
  Speaker 7: ray band display glasses due to inventory constraints and unprecedented demand.
• 21:17
  Speaker 7: In the US, Meta shares down over half a percent,
• 21:21
  Speaker 7: and Ford said this morning that it's US vehicle sales
• 21:23
  Speaker 7: increased six percent last year, marking the automaker's best annual
• 21:27
  Speaker 7: sales since twenty nineteen. Ford finished the year as the
• 21:31
  Speaker 7: third largest automaker behind Toyota and General Motors, Ford shares
• 21:35
  Speaker 7: arising over one percent. Today, I'm Tucker Silva and that
• 21:40
  Speaker 7: is Wall Street Watching. In the previous segment, we asked
• 21:42
  Speaker 7: you the trivia question who is the original host of
• 21:45
  Speaker 7: Wheel of Fortune? That would be Chuck Woolery. Patrese from
• 21:49
  Speaker 7: Summer's Connecticut is our winner today, taking on the Financial
• 21:52
  Speaker 7: Exchange Show t shirt. Congrats to Patrese. We played trivia
• 21:56
  Speaker 7: every day here in the Financial Exchange. See complete contest
• 21:59
  Speaker 7: rules at Financial Changshow dot com.
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: I've never even heard of that guy.
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: Wow, Yeah, I didn't either. I had to google him.
• 22:07
  Speaker 7: Look familiar.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: There's a piece in the Wall Street Journal today about
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: older workers looking for jobs, and I've never been over
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: the age of fifty five, but i have to say
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: working with people who I'm hoping to get there. Not convinced,
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: but I'm hoping. I can think of little that would
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: be more stressful than needing a job at the age
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: of over fifty five and losing your existing job at
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: that stage. Yeah, there might be other more stress like
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: young children that might be a little slightly more stressful stage.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: But when you are, you know, the parent of young children,
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: you're not facing the same agism that you are when
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: you are a sixty two year old looking for work
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: in the tech sector, for example. And you know, everybody
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: listening right now who is of that age has experienced
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: the agism in the in the late market and how
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: difficult it can be to find and retain a job
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: and make your skill set look appealing to an employer.
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: So I don't think it's any secret that.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: That exists, and the protections there just you know, aren't
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: terribly helpful. But the piece of the Wall Street Journal,
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: I think, is an interesting expose into five people who
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: found themselves in that type of situation, either laid off
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: or had retired and looking to get back into work,
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: and it really outlines, you know, just the lengths they
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: had to go to and the challenges they faced when
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: trying to look for look for a new job in
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: that whatever you want to call it, second half of
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: your career, last last quarter of your working career, and
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: it spans all sorts of different industries and work. But
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: you know, one common theme that I saw throughout them
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: was it really required changing your expectations for work, right like,
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: in order for almost all of them to find a job,
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: it did not entail them going right back into the
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: industry that they worked in for some cases three decades
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: because they just weren't found to be as desirable in
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: those same industries. And you know, there's one case where
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: a guy was working in oil and gas ended up
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: taking a job working at a local wine shop before
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: finally getting connected back into the oil and gas sector.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: Several people who could only find part time consulting gigs,
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: and others who have had to kind of completely revamp
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: their lifestyle based on a change in that career path
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: and what to do about all of it.
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: It was, you know, interesting some of the cases that
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: you see here, and there was different methods use here.
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: Whether it's that oil and gas executive sort of doing
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: the traditional sort of networking sort of thing.
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: Or you've got others that just you know.
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: Cold emailed and in the insurance agency or the insurance
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: sector and got a job there driving for Uber, kind
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: of doing some gig work. There all different alternatives out there,
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: but interesting nonetheless to hear sort of the different stories.
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: And it's a definitely a problem that you talk to
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: a lot of our clients who are in that age demographic.
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: You have to be specific about what you're looking at
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: for a job opportunity.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: Well, and the reality is for a lot of people
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: that are at that stage, it's kind of a time
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: period that you banked on saving the most amount of money. Sure, right,
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: Like for most of people in that age demographic, kids
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: are off the payroll. If you've done paying for college,
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: then the loans are out there and you might still
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: have to help out the loans, but the college itself
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: is oftentimes done with at that stage if you were
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: helping with it, and it's like, Okay, this is my
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: last ten years to really focus.
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: Kind of the peak of your earnings power too.
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: Like how do I maximize my retirement savings? And that
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: is certainly a very common part of a financial plan
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: is Okay, I'm past all these expenses, i have my
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: career stability, now, I've got all of my experience, I'm
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: making my peak earnings. Now I'm going to save for retirement.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: I don't think enough planning work though, goes into the
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: contingent paul and understanding what the contingencies look like, right, Okay, yeah,
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: if I can only make it five years in this
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: career instead.
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: Of ten, like I'm planning how do I make things work?
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: What are the rules if I'm laid off at fifty eight,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: I'm not quite fifty nine and a half yet all
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: my money's in retirement savings because I used all the
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: cash for college education and paying down my mortgage. What
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: do I do in those situations and how do I
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: plan for them? Certainly that is part of what something
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: like a target date fund in a four to one
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: K attempts to safeguard you against. It is preparing for
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: that specific type of situation where your investments are getting
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: more conservative.
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: But obviously there is.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: A lot more that goes into it than just saying, oh,
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: my portfolio has become more conservative, and so, yeah, check
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: that box. I got laid off, but I will be
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: just fine. Obviously, the unemployment rate's been increasing slightly. We
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: don't know what's in store for twenty twenty six, but
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: I've been talking a lot about resolutions on the program
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: so far this year. And one of the big stressors
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: that I know hits at families specifically, hits it married
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: couples specifically, is the finances. Now, oftentimes there's one part
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: of the spouse that doesn't fully understand the finances because
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: I don't know about your experience, Paul, but in my
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: experience there's usually one part of the couple that likes
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: to handle it and the other one that likes to
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: take a hands off approach. But having somebody in the
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: middle there that can help explain it and play in
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: English and advise you on the things you might not
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: be talking about. Is where a financial advisor comes into place.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: If you've never worked with one, If you have and
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: you're not getting the right answers to your questions, or
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: you just want to kick the tires and get a
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: sense of it, give the folks at Armstrong Advisory Group
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: of call. We have offices located scattered throughout New England,
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: happy to sit down with you in person or if
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: you're listening anywhere across the country, we're happy to sit
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: down via zoom and.
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: Explain what it is we do and who we do
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: it for.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: The number is eight hundred three nine three four zero
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: zero one for the Armstrong Advisory Group. You can book
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: a time for us to call you back at Armstrong
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: Advisory dot com. But that phone number once again eight
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong advisory group a
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: advisory services.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: The other piece of this labor market story that I
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: think is going to gain more traction every year that
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: goes by is the state of hiring right now, because
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: I keep hearing from employers that before they are allowed
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: to consider hiring somebody, Salesforce implemented this.
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: I could be misquoting that, so let me double check
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: on it.
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: But I know there's a big tech company that basically
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: said you must justify in writing why a AI cannot
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: do the job that you are hiring for right right,
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: And I think that's going to face more and more
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: scrutiny by employers of Hey, we have all these expensive tools.
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: We've been whether it's a good idea or not, we've
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: been plowing hundreds of millions of dollars into this new
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: tech development that is supposed to be paying dividends. So
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: explain to me before you go hire a human being
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: for whatever it is. Six one hundred and fifty thousand
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: dollars a year. Tell me why our in house systems
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: that we developed using AI can't do that job. And
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: that's going to be an interesting new part of the workforce.
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: It's interesting you read this piece from Bloomberg and you
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: start to extrapolate it out for the labor market in
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty six. Gee, there are certainly some areas that
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: there won't be a tremendous amount of demand for in
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: college entry level or college recent college graduates and entry
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: level workers. That's an area that I keep coming back to,
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: And maybe it's out of selfish bias, because I myself
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: was hired to work customer service at an eight hundred
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: number for financial services firm out of college, and I
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: just I feel like those types of jobs for sure,
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: one hundred percent. If I was in the same boat
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: today that I was, then I would not be hired.
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: It was at you know, Bank of America, Merrill Echine.
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: With the resources that they have at their disposal, I'm
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: sure they're investing heavily, if not already deploying AI t
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: be that customer service worker.
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, heck, I was on the mass DMV or
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: RMB site the other day taking a look at my
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: vehicle registration and an AI chatbot window popped up. And
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: for the state of Massachusetts. That's crazy, say, are usually
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: twenty five years before I can answer your questions here.
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: By the way, don't rely on the answers because I
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: might not get them. All right, this is powered by
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: artificial intelligence. The Commonwealth of Massachusetts is adapting an AI chatpot.
• 30:43
  Speaker 5: Maybe we won't have to go to the DMV anymore.
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: I doubt it.
• 30:46
  Speaker 7: By the way, it was a shopify who they want
• 30:49
  Speaker 7: to make new hires and less managers can prove AI
• 30:52
  Speaker 7: is incapable of doing the job.
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: Wow, well, at least it started with an S. I
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: guess I'm going to justify it that way. Let's take it.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break. When we come back a
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: little bit. Stat Roulette is next.
• 31:06
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• 31:14
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• 31:20
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• 31:46
  Speaker 7: This segment of the Financial Exchange is brought to you
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• 32:22
  Speaker 3: It's time for a bit of stacker.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: Let here, Paul, I'm gonna kick things off with a
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: charming new technology called brew Bird. If you have ever
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: been dissatisfied with your company, you know giant coffeemaker that
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: churns out nasty cups of coffee that sit there all day,
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: and then you're drinking the stale.
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: Coffee for four hours.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: Brew Bird has the solution for you at the very
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: affordable price of ten thousand dollars per machine. It is
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: the newest addition to offices at companies like Salesforce, LinkedIn
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: and Gap in the Bay Area. And unlike it's about
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: the size of a Cureig, and it does make single cups,
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: but unlike the Cuig, it's going to grind the beans
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: on site. And then what was the process that I
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: heard that I didn't understand why it matters. I can
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: understand how freshly ground beans are a little bit more important,
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: But unlike Kuriger and Espresso, Brewberty us whole beans and
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: precise extraction times.
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: Does anybody know what that means?
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: No, neither do I I'm not sure, but I think
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: what we should do is probably just cancel all bonuses
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: next year and go with one of these instead, maybe
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: a couple. Actually, just hey, I understand that people like cash,
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: but let's go with the ten thousand dollars coffee machine instead.
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: I would imagine that even Starbucks doesn't spend ten thousand
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: dollars on their coffee machines for their stores. I guess
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: they pay humans to do it. You might be able
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: to hire a part time barista for cheaper. I think
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: there are better options than this. It does remind me
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: of another San Francisco born idea, the slim silhouette. Anybody
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: know what I'm talking about there? That would be a
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: trash can? That was that one?
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: A design contest in San Francisco never actually.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: Got off the ground, but they put out an RFP
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: for ideas for a new designed trash can for the
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: city public trash cans.
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: The prototypes came.
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: At eighteen thousand, eight hundred dollars each, whereas once they
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: had plans to mass development developed these things, they were
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: gonna get them down to three thousand bucks apiece.
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: So never actually happened.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: As I don't think this new ten thousand dollars coffee
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: machine is going to really happen for a lot of people.
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: But yeah, it seems like a pretty preposterous designer.
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: What a garbage idea?
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, what do you have for us?
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: Paul catch that?
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: I got the joke, all right.
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: Nice mystery trader on Calshi made four hundred thousand dollars
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: betting on.
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: A polymarket polymarket.
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: Thank you for that very important correction on Maduro's downfall.
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: I had read another story about CALCI today. This is
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: a website similar to Calshie's, but the competitor direct competitor
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: of them, poly market where you can make bets on different.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: All sorts of crazy things like the US taking President
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Maduro exactly.
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: And so this was a twelvefold return on the investment.
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: It was wagers that were made back in December as
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: to whether or not the US would invade Venezuela by
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: January thirty first, and they can made the first bet
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: on December twenty sevens then only ramped up bets over
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: the course of the next week as tensions mounted between Washington.
• 35:43
  Speaker 5: DC and Venezuela.
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: And it's getting to a point where, I mean, I
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: understand some of the betting market stuff on sports stuff,
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: I've been around that for years. But the fact that
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: you can bet on who's going to die in stranger
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: things like these reek of insider trading, the risks out there.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: Well, and furthering that.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: They don't track who the people are, right, so they
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: tell you who made the bet but it's not even
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: clear to me that polymarket knows who made the bet.
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: It's a mystery trader that gambled four hundred thousand dollars
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: on here. It's not clear to me if you register.
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: So if you open an account at Schwab or Fidelity
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: or Vanguard or any of these big places, you have
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: to give a whole bunch of information like rise.
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: Yeah, where do you do?
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: What do you do for work?
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: It's really unclear to me that that is required with
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: any of these things. And look, I know I talk
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: about the benefits of deregulation across a whole bunch of things. Uh,
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: And I think that there's a happy medium here, But
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: you cannot have gambling websites where what has the real
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: look of an insider getting information about plans that the
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: White House was forming, then placing bets on some website
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: and screwing a whole bunch of people and making what
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: do you say, twelve times four hundred thousand dollars on
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: the idea that this is going to happen. Now, maybe
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: he just got lucky, But I don't know a whole
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: lot of people that wager four hundred thousand dollars with
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: the hopes of getting lucky.
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: Well, when you're say, screwing a bunch of people, I
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: guess I can see that.
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: The other side of that trade, you got screwed.
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: That's true. That's true.
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: That's why insider trading is a problem is because there
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: is always a winner and a loser to that bet
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: that you are making. You are buying the shares from
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: somebody else who is selling them, and if you don't
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: have that insider information, then you get screwed on the deal.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: And I have a whole bunch of problems that they
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: stayed in.
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: I was thinking of.
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: The house perspective, like it was the polymarket paying it up.
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: But you're right to create these odds from other people
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: taking the bets. I hate to go on a long
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: tangent about this, but the betting markets are out there
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: are absolutely plagued with scams and problems, not to mention
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: the addictive side of it, and it just it just
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: needs to be policed better. I'm not saying don't allow it.
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying, don't allow people to insider trade and
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: deceive people.
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: Quick break.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: For the rest of the day. Markets are holding on
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: to their gains. For now, we'll have a full recap
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: and the Joltz Report out tomorrow here on the Financial
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: Exchange