Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Slim Sunday | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/24/26

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Sunday BEST BETS | Slim Sunday | NBA & NHL Conference Finals & MLB & WNBA | 5/24/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your checks. The black coffee on the felt man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mist three teen Parlette turned the dust
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: in your head. Now you stare at the chips like
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Your name steal means something on somebody for show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me?
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: hold on and me.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: Stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: Now, what's up? Everybody?
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports for Sunday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 5: May twenty fourth.
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: We went four and one on the show.
• 1:36
  Speaker 5: Yesterday, US NBA playoffs, which is usually one of my
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: best things, has been the absolute worst. I mean, hasn't
• 1:46
  Speaker 5: been horrible, but we're below five hundred. We've lost on
• 1:50
  Speaker 5: the NBA playoffs. Not happy about that. But Major League
• 1:53
  Speaker 5: Baseball has been awesome, playoff hockey has been awesome. WNBA
• 1:58
  Speaker 5: is five and zero now, so everything else is killing.
• 2:02
  Speaker 5: It didn't really expect that to be the case, but
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: that is the case. Yesterday we won all three baseball
• 2:08
  Speaker 5: plays yesterday Philadelphia was winning two to nothing at the
• 2:12
  Speaker 5: end of the fifth, so we got that right leading
• 2:15
  Speaker 5: into the bottom of the fifth, that's already over. Like
• 2:18
  Speaker 5: anything else they scored in the bottom of the fifth
• 2:20
  Speaker 5: would have just been gravy, although they did not, but
• 2:22
  Speaker 5: they won three to nothing full games, so they did.
• 2:25
  Speaker 5: They covered the full game as well. Mets Miami under
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: eight was a winner as well. Four to one was
• 2:32
  Speaker 5: the final in that game.
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure.
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: Max Meyer showed up, pitched really well again, Mets offense
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: can't hit, and then we got the over in Saint
• 2:41
  Speaker 5: Louis Cincinnati Game two as well. It was a little
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: bit slow to start out there, and Petty was actually
• 2:49
  Speaker 5: i think pitching a bit better than expected for Cincinnati,
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: but a couple of big innings and things kind of
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: unraveled a bit, and then it wound up being a
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: six to sixth game going into extras, I'm pretty sure,
• 2:59
  Speaker 5: and it up seven to six, so it went well
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: over the total by the end of it. The bullpens
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: obviously were part of that. The bullpens didn't see that
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: much usage in Game one, but they saw enough. Plus
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: the bullpens are not good, so that worked out. We
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: got an outright winner with the La Sparks on the
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: WNBA play, that game was a bit of a roller coasters.
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: They're winning the game early, it looked good. Then they
• 3:23
  Speaker 5: fell behind by somewhat of a margin. I don't know
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: if they were ever actually not covering though, because they
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: came back and retook the lead and they wound up
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: winning outright.
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: So WNBA continues to kill it.
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: And our two biggest underdog plays we've had in the
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: WNBA were both outright wins, So I'll take that.
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: I think they won that game by five or something.
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: And then the Cleveland Calves, I don't know what you
• 3:47
  Speaker 5: could say, man, maybe it's fatigue. I don't know, but
• 3:50
  Speaker 5: if you look at the box score, it was not
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: really what it looked like on the scoreboard, like, yeah,
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: they got kind of blown out in the game, but.
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: Shooting, the shooting.
• 4:00
  Speaker 5: Percentages were a huge outlier in that game, Like Cleveland
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: just couldn't hit anything, and the Knicks we're hitting everything.
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: So that's really what did it.
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: Like that game should have been a lot closer based
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: on the box score. I mean, I guess based on
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: looking at you know, the stats and whatever, the Knicks
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: probably should have won that game in a close game
• 4:19
  Speaker 5: is really what it looks like when you dig into
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: the box score. It should not have been an easy
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: win for the Knicks by any means, but that's yeah.
• 4:27
  Speaker 5: I mean, the shooting was just completely lopsided towards the Knicks.
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: What can you do?
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: And then I believe I think the Knicks did get
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: to the free throw line a lot more as well.
• 4:37
  Speaker 5: Let me actually, let me check I might be wrong
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: about that. I don't want to misspeak here. Hold on,
• 4:42
  Speaker 5: actually I have it up right now anyway, or actually
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: I don't have it on the score on the screen yet.
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: But whatever, I'm.
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: Not gonna do anything with Game four and that series
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: three to zero series Game four, very very unpredictable situation.
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the Knicks just.
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: Went to the free throw line way more as well,
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: and Cleveland couldn't hit any free throws either.
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: It's just ridiculous, dude. Cleveland was twenty nine percent from.
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: Three, even though they actually hit one more three than
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: the Knicks did because they were taking way more. Both
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: teams actually did shoot pretty well overall, but the Knicks
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: weren't missing anything. Cleveland had seven more field goal attempts
• 5:20
  Speaker 5: in the game, but the Knicks made more shots because
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: they hit such a high percentage. The free throws were
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: actually the big disparities. On my mistake, I was trying
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: to remember what I saw, but yeah, the free throws
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: are in insane disparity towards the Knicks. There were plus
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: twelve free throws made and only plus.
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: Eight free throw attempts.
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: But Cleveland shot sixty three percent from the free throw line.
• 5:43
  Speaker 4: You can't do that as an NBA team.
• 5:45
  Speaker 5: The Knicks shot like almost ninety percent from the free
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: throw line, which is pretty high. Like usually NBA teams
• 5:51
  Speaker 5: are gonna be seventy to eighty percent pretty much. Sixty
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: whatever percent from Cleveland unacceptable. You cannot hit free throws.
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: At that low over rate. So that definitely factored into that.
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: But whatever we're gonna talk about today, I have a
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: very small card today. I have one baseball play today.
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: I really don't like this board. And then I'm gonna
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: give out a play in the hockey game.
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: And that is it. Mister Pensey. What's up?
• 6:19
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out. Yeah, it was a good day
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: yesterday overall. Gerald, what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Tyson, Hello, everybody,
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: what's up?
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: Looking at today baseball, let's get into it. We do
• 6:33
  Speaker 5: have one doubleheader today and it's not this first game up,
• 6:37
  Speaker 5: which is the earliest game, is Pittsburgh Toronto on peacock,
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: decent pitching matchup. In this game here, Toronto is looking
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: for a sweep. Believe it or not, Pittsburgh has really
• 6:47
  Speaker 5: really been in a slide, man. But a lot of
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: times I talk about when a team is on the
• 6:51
  Speaker 5: verge of a sweep, sometimes we'll start looking ahead to
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: the next series, and I believe Toronto is playing No
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: Baltimore is playing Tampa. Who's Toronto playing? Toronto's playing Miami.
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: I don't know if that's really that much of a
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: look ahead. But still, when a team is not really
• 7:06
  Speaker 5: a bad team, which you know, Pittsburgh is not really
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: a bad team, and they're looking to avoid a sweep,
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: you'll get more effort from them a lot of times.
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: So maybe you will get that here. Although sometimes if.
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: It's like the very end of a road trip though,
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: which it is for Pittsburgh and they do play the
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: Cubs next, you gotta be a little bit careful because
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: sometimes they'll just pack it in and they won't give
• 7:27
  Speaker 5: you that huge effort, so you got to kind of
• 7:29
  Speaker 5: figure out which way is it going to go. It's
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: kind of difficult to do that, actually, so I obviously
• 7:35
  Speaker 5: weigh the matchups pretty heavily here. Though as far as
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: the bullpen usage, Toronto used four relief pitchers yesterday, Pittsburgh
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: only used two. Pittsburgh's bullpen is not that good though.
• 7:47
  Speaker 5: The ranked twentieth year I have this arranged by Whip,
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: Toronto's is eleventh. Toronto's got the better bullpen era as well,
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: so I think Toronto does have a bullpen edge, but
• 7:57
  Speaker 5: it's a bit less because of the usage. Hitting wise,
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is the better team. Pittsburgh tenth in offense, Toronto
• 8:05
  Speaker 5: is twenty sixth.
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: So yeah, Pittsburgh has hit.
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: Better, but Toronto does have the better pitcher on the
• 8:12
  Speaker 5: mound here, which is why part of the reason why
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: they're favored so heavily. Mitch Keller pitching for Pittsburgh. I
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: always say, though, that Mitch Keller is not that bad.
• 8:21
  Speaker 5: He's under the raidar Man. He's having a pretty good season.
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: Three point eight sixty RA one point oh six. Whip
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: for Pittsburgh has been a little bit better on the
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: road three point five to seven roadyra this month. I mean,
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: he looks like he got kind of knocked around his
• 8:35
  Speaker 5: last two outings against Colorado and Saint Louis. It wasn't
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: really that bad though, like most of the guys that
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: he allowed on base happened to score in those outings,
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: which is kind of unlucky. So I don't think he's
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: really pitching that poorly. He's got a sixteen to five
• 8:51
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio still this month and well below one
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: hitt up per inning, which is basically what he has
• 8:57
  Speaker 5: across the entire season as well. His strikeout rates not
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: high because that's just not what he does, but his
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: walk rate is pretty low. His hit rate is also low,
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: so he's a pretty good pitcher. His numbers against Toronto
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: are pretty mediocre, though, in forty three at bats, two
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: fifty six average allowed seven to sixty nine ohps. Like
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: I say, seven point fifty is kind of where I
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: set like the threshold there for which side has the advantage.
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: So the hitters have a slight advantage over him here
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: eight to three strike out walk ratio. Problem is he's
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: gonna have to match Dylan Cees here. Cease is having
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: a good season for it Toronto two point nine to
• 9:36
  Speaker 5: eighty RA one point two to Whip. He's been better
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: at home as well, by almost two runs on his
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: RA two point one at home. Didn't pitch well in
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: his last outing, though his walk issues are coming back.
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: It was against the Yankees, though, so maybe you give
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: him a little bit of a pass for that. But
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: he had good numbers against the Yankees going into that,
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: so I thought he would pitch better than he did.
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: He allowed fewer than one hit per inning though he
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: I mean, I don't want to say he got unlucky though,
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: because the walks definitely hurt him. But his strikeout rate
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: was really high. His strikeout rate this month is really high.
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is still fairly low. But my concern
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: is seven walks over the last two outings. That's not good,
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: and that's really been his main problem throughout his career
• 10:19
  Speaker 5: is the walks.
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: But if you look at his overall.
• 10:21
  Speaker 5: Numbers, I think he has the second highest strikeout rate
• 10:24
  Speaker 5: in baseball to Jacob Mizierowski. He's got a ton of
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: strikeouts here, his walk rate is fairly high, and he's
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: allowed very few hits as well.
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: So that's what sees is gonna give you.
• 10:38
  Speaker 5: Moving into his numbers against Pittsburgh, they're actually not good
• 10:41
  Speaker 5: in forty four at bats two ninety five batting average
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: allowed nine two oh ps. So Pittsburgh may actually be
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: able to get to him here. You know, Cease looks
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: like he's not in the greatest of form right now,
• 10:53
  Speaker 5: and he doesn't have good matchup numbers here. But again,
• 10:55
  Speaker 5: he does have a lot of strikeouts as usual. Fourteen
• 10:58
  Speaker 5: against Pittsburgh or walks. I'm passing on the game. I
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: only have one play here today. It is not in
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: this game.
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: This game. We got the money coming in on Toronto.
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: To get the Sweet Peer seventy tickets, ninety four percent
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: of the cash on them. They're at minus one sixty
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: five or so here, I would say is kind of
• 11:20
  Speaker 5: the average line on them. I think I might lead
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: to Pittsburgh slightly, though I think the Bullpens are a
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: little bit of a wash here. Pittsburgh may have the
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: motivation to try to avoid the Sweet Peer. They I'm
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: pretty sure they're on a big losing streak r I
• 11:35
  Speaker 5: think no, no, they actually broke it with a couple
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: of wins against Saint Louis my mistake, but they're still
• 11:41
  Speaker 5: not playing great baseball here. They may come in with
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: a little bit of effort to avoid the sweet peer potentially,
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: and the matchup numbers actually side with Keller a little
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: bit here, who I think is undervalued in the market.
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: So you know, you could make a split run line
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: money line bet on Pittsburgh that would.
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: Probably be my slight opinion. Total is also really low.
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: It's seven and a half, so it's expected to be
• 12:04
  Speaker 5: a pitching duel here basically, which that tends to help
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: the underdog, Like you get an underdog at a decent
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: price when scoring is gonna be at a premium. That's
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: kind of what you want. So dirty Sock, what's up?
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: Thanks for hanging out.
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: Next game up.
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: I'll talk about both games of this doubleheader here, although
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: the second game is pretty unpredictable here Detroit and Baltimore.
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: The first game here because the game got rained out yesterday.
• 12:31
  Speaker 5: First game is gonna be the same matchup that it
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: was yesterday, So I already handicapped it, but I mean
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: I'll do it again. I guess here Baltimore I believe
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: won the first game here. Detroit's on a huge slide
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: right now. Baltimore ended a losing streak. Some team had
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: to because both teams are on a losing streak coming
• 12:48
  Speaker 5: into that game. So Baltimore won the first game, even
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: though they were in a return home spot.
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: They got to face Jack Flaherty.
• 12:54
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure those so that will help anytime you
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: face a pitcher that's not that good. But Detroit is
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: really really on a slide right now. Maybe having yesterday off,
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: maybe that'll help Detroit. I don't know, but you know
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: I talk about when a team had the day off,
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: it can cool off the hitting a little bit. It
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: helps the bullpens a little bit because they get to rest.
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: These bullpens are nothing special, but they did both rest yesterday.
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: Of course, Detroit's bullpen is ranked nineteenth, but their ray
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: isn't really that bad. Baltimore's eighteenth because their whip is
• 13:26
  Speaker 5: very slightly higher or sorry, very slightly lower, but their e.
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: Ray is like a run higher.
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: So I think Detroit's bullpen is actually better than Baltimore's.
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: And then hitting wise, Baltimore has been better fourteenth, Detroit
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: down at twenty second. They have not been playing well
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: really in any phase of the game. From Bervaldez is
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: pitching in this first game here. He was supposed to
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: pitch yesterday. He's not really pitching that great this year.
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: Four point five eighty ray, one point four whip for Detroit.
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: Better on the road though, four point two four ROADI
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: al right struggled in his last out, and he walked
• 14:03
  Speaker 5: four guys against Cleveland, which was pretty much how he
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: lost the game.
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: Too many walks.
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: That's his main issue usually is the walks. If you
• 14:12
  Speaker 5: want to, you know, say that he has an issue.
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: That is it.
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: He's allowed more than one hit per inning on the
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: course of the season, though that's not great either. Usually
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: he is less hittable than that, and usually his strikeout
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: rate is higher than this. He's got like ten strikeouts
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: below the amount of innings pitched.
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: That's not great.
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: Usually he's better at striking out batters than that. So
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: there's something a little bit off with him right now.
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: And his walk numbers, like I said, usually kind of concerning,
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: and it is again this year. I don't know if
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: I want to trust Valdez here, and obviously I don't
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: want to because his numbers against Baltimore are bad in
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: a big sample of one hundred and twelve at bats,
• 14:49
  Speaker 5: three seventy five average, eight ninety five ops, twenty two
• 14:53
  Speaker 5: to nine strikeout walk ratio not good. He's going up
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: against Brandon Young, who was also scheduled to pitch yesterday.
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: A pitching for Baltimore, he's not been that good. Four
• 15:04
  Speaker 5: point two to five yrrays not that bad, but one
• 15:06
  Speaker 5: point four to eight whip is not good. He's been
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: worse at home as well, five point four home y ra,
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: so he's been significantly worse at home.
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: His last couple outings didn't really go that well.
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: He's walked three guys in every outing this month, even
• 15:20
  Speaker 5: though Baltimore's won all three of them. One of them
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: was against the Yankees. He wasn't that bad in that game.
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: But I don't think you would really give him a full,
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: like a total pass here for walking this many guy
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: he does. He doesn't get a pass for all these
• 15:34
  Speaker 5: freak assts, and on the course of the season he's
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: walking like one guy every two winnings. Plus he's allowing
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: more than one hit in an inning. You can't do that.
• 15:43
  Speaker 5: And his strikeout raised pretty low as well. So I
• 15:46
  Speaker 5: don't trust Young either, although the one advantage he might
• 15:49
  Speaker 5: have is Detroit's not familiar with him.
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: They got four hitters.
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: Of a face and they're two for nine with a
• 15:55
  Speaker 5: double from Riley Green, three strikeouts, two walks. I guess
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: with that info what you want, but it's such a
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: small sample. I don't really put that much stock into that.
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: I think the best arguments in this game probably are
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: for the over, but it would have.
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: Been a stronger argument.
• 16:12
  Speaker 5: I don't even know if that's what I said yesterday,
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: but it would have been a stronger argument for it
• 16:16
  Speaker 5: yesterday because now you have the hitters might have cooled
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: off a little bit with the day off yesterday, even
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: though they go through batting practice and whatever, they didn't
• 16:24
  Speaker 5: play the game, and then the bullpen's arrested, so that
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: takes a little bit away if you want to do
• 16:28
  Speaker 5: the over here. I don't think I disagree with it, though.
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: Totals at eight, which is right there in no man's land,
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: eighty percent of tickets seventy nine percent of the cash
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: on the under, don't I don't imagine any public better
• 16:41
  Speaker 5: coming in on an under in this game, though the
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: money is also hitting Baltimore here at about minus one,
• 16:48
  Speaker 5: twenty fifty eight percent of tickets on Detroit eighty one
• 16:51
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on Baltimore. So the money is
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: indicating on Baltimore. I mean, I could see the argument
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: for it, you know, Like I think Detroit might have
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen though, so you couldn't limit it to
• 17:04
  Speaker 5: maybe the first five as well with Baltimore. But Young
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: has the unfamiliarity edge here, does have the better matchup
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: numbers if you want to weigh them that heavily. I
• 17:13
  Speaker 5: guess I wouldn't really disagree with Baltimore Detroit. At some point,
• 17:17
  Speaker 5: he's got to They got to break this losing streak though, man,
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: so I think you are going to get an effort
• 17:21
  Speaker 5: out of them and then Game two.
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: Detroit has not listed.
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: A starting pitcher for Game two in the evening here,
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: Trevor Rodgers is the an outstarter for Baltimore here.
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: He was shockingly good for Baltimore last year.
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: He made it like a huge comeback after he was
• 17:38
  Speaker 5: never really that good when he was on Miami. He
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: came from out of nowhere and he was actually excellent
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: for Baltimore last year. This year he's been awful though,
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: Like I is this the real Rogers, the real mister Rodgers?
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: I have no idea but it's not a beautiful day
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: in the neighborhood for him. Here he's got a six
• 17:56
  Speaker 5: point eight seven e R one point six y six whip.
• 17:59
  Speaker 5: He's better at home, but still five point seven to
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: ninety I rais not good. He got lit up in
• 18:05
  Speaker 5: his last outing against Tampa, wasn't good in the outing
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: before that either against the Yankees, and in fact, he's
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: been bad and almost all of his outings. He was
• 18:13
  Speaker 5: actually good for his first three, and since then he's
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: had five bad outings in a row. I wouldn't trust
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: him at all in this game. He's allowed way more
• 18:22
  Speaker 5: than one hit per inning. His strikeout rates fine walk
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: rate is a bit high as well. I'm not gonna
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: trust Rogers here. Detroit doesn't have that many bats against him.
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: Only four hitters have faced him. Veerling has more than
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: half of the at bats here, but he has hit
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: him well. Overall. They have twenty at bats against him
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: three hundred average seven to fifty ops.
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: Most of the.
• 18:43
  Speaker 5: Damage from Variling, though, so if he's able to pitch
• 18:46
  Speaker 5: around him, maybe he can pitch okay. But this game
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: is almost impossible to handicap, and some of the books
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: are just now putting up a line on that one.
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: Baltimore is like a minus one thirty or so favorite
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: there minus one twenty five.
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: Total of eight.
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: I mean, you're completely rolling the dice if you want
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: to try to make a play on that game. I
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: know I did it yesterday with a game two of
• 19:07
  Speaker 5: a doubleheader, but we knew who the pitching matchup, We
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: knew what the pitching matchup was gonna be, and you
• 19:14
  Speaker 5: could kind of gauge what the game was going to
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: look like. So that's why I gave up that play. Yesterday.
• 19:19
  Speaker 5: Cleveland at Philadelphia. We got the win with Philly yesterday
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: first five. They won full game as well. That was
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: a little bit more questionable, I guess with one more
• 19:29
  Speaker 5: run scored for the remainder of the game. Their bullpen
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: showed up. Though Philly ended a three game losing streak.
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: They'd gotten shut out in the first game of this series.
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: So now whoever wins this game wins the series. So
• 19:40
  Speaker 5: probably both teams do show up for this. Cleveland used
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: three relief pitchers yesterday. Maybe Philly has some new momentum
• 19:48
  Speaker 5: here because they ended a losing streak. Wasn't a long
• 19:51
  Speaker 5: losing streak though, Philly used three relief pitchers as well,
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: but they did have to use their closer deron. They
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: used them two days in a row, so he's like
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: not available tonight or today, I mean in the afternoon. Yeah,
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: most likely not. Bullpen wise, Philadelphia's ranked fourteenth, Cleveland twelfth.
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: The bullpens are pretty close, so it's hard to gauge.
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: Like I think the bullpens are a bit of a wash. Offensively,
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: Cleveland is twentieth, Philadelphia twenty fifth, although generally I think
• 20:23
  Speaker 5: Philadelphia does have the better bats in their lineup though,
• 20:27
  Speaker 5: but Cleveland I think has a pretty big starting pitching
• 20:30
  Speaker 5: matchup edge here, which is why Cleveland is favored. Parker
• 20:33
  Speaker 5: Messek is going for Cleveland. He's been their best pitcher
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: two point four to five ERA one point oh two whip.
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: He's pitching well home road splits not significant. He's done
• 20:45
  Speaker 5: well this month as well, though he's walked three guys
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: a piece in his last two outings. That's a little
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: bit concerning, but Cleveland has still only lost two of
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: his starts all season, and they've won all the rest
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: of his games, and he's won a majority of them himself.
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: This month. He still has a twenty six to seven
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: strike out.
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: Walk ratio, which is good, but the elevated walk number
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: the last two outings is slightly concerning. Still, I don't
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: think that he's really gonna pitch poorly here.
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's a good all season.
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: He's allowed more than two hour in runs only twice
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: and has not allowed more than four at all, and
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: that was a an outlier, I think at the A's Stadium,
• 21:21
  Speaker 5: where they hit him for three home runs, So I
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: think you give him a pass for that. He's allowed
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: way below one hit per inning, high strikeout rate over
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: one per inning, and his walk rates not that bad either,
• 21:31
  Speaker 5: And the Phillies have never faced him before, so he
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: has that extra edge unfamiliarity. And you have these starting
• 21:37
  Speaker 5: pitchers that are good and they're not familiar to the
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: opposing hitters. The opposing hitters a lot of times will
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: struggle because they haven't seen him before. They got to
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: figure him out the first couple of times they see him.
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: That should be an edge for him as well. He
• 21:49
  Speaker 5: will be going up against Andrew Painter, who does have
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: the same unfamiliarity edge here, but he has not pitched
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: well so far. Five point seven to seventy one point
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: four to nine whip for Philly here home road split's
• 22:02
  Speaker 5: not really that significant. He's done okay at his last
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: two outings, though he pitched against Boston and Cincinnati. Didn't
• 22:10
  Speaker 5: do poorly in either one of those outings, so he
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: is trending in the correct direction here. And I'd go
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: as far as to say three of his last four
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: outings are actually good. The one bad outing he got
• 22:20
  Speaker 5: tagged by the A's. But Cleveland is not that good
• 22:23
  Speaker 5: of a lineup, so he might actually pitch okay here.
• 22:25
  Speaker 5: But his walk number is still concerning. I still allow
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: more than one hit per inning this month. The sixteen
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: to eight strike out walk razier this month worries me
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: still over the course of the season, pretty similar over
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: one hit per inning. Walk rate is too high, strike
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: out rate is a little bit low, so I don't
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: really fully trust him. But like I said, Cleveland is
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: unfamiliar with him, except Patrick Bailey is one for two
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: often with a single. Bailey must have changed teams, I guess,
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: unless yeah, because Painter has only pitched this year so far,
• 22:57
  Speaker 5: like he did not pitch in the majors prior to
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: this year, or so I don't know do with that
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: information what you want, but I think I have to
• 23:05
  Speaker 5: lean to Cleveland here.
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: The money is agreeing with that.
• 23:08
  Speaker 5: I just think Messick is just the more proven and
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: trustworthy picture here.
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: But you have to lay a bit of a price.
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: It's like minus one twenty five basically on Cleveland.
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: Probably it is justified.
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: But then again, I keep saying that Philly Philly is
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: not as bad as the record looks, though on Cleveland
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: is probably not as good as their record looks. So
• 23:29
  Speaker 5: I mentioned that with my handicap yesterday. That's something to
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: keep in mind. Like there was a reason why Philly
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: was a big favorite yesterday, but the line has shifted
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: so much, right, Like, how do you go from Philly
• 23:38
  Speaker 5: being a huge favorite, right? Like, I know Zach Wheeler
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: really good, whatever, but minus two hundred on Philly all
• 23:45
  Speaker 5: the way to Cleveland being a favorite in this one.
• 23:48
  Speaker 5: It seems like the books might be overreacting a little
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: bit to the uh starting pitching here, So maybe the
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: price is not quite right. But seventy percent of tickets,
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: ninety percent of the cash on Cleveland, I think they
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: do have the edge in the game. So I don't
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: really disagree with the Cleveland side Minnesota at the Red Sox.
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: Red Sox losing again yesterday. They can't fucking beat Minnesota
• 24:12
  Speaker 5: Red Sox. Bao wasn't that bad again in you know,
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: in a situation where he didn't pitch the first inning.
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: One problem is the Red Sox so they figured out
• 24:24
  Speaker 5: that Bao pitches better when he doesn't start the game.
• 24:27
  Speaker 5: Put him in in relief, and he pitches better. Okay, cool,
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: although I think he jammed the bases in the first
• 24:33
  Speaker 5: inning that he pitched in the second inning, and then
• 24:35
  Speaker 5: he got out of it and actually settled down and
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: did okay. But one of the problems is the Red
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: Sox keep using Moron as the opener, and he's given
• 24:43
  Speaker 5: up runs in every fucking game that he's pitched the
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: first inning, So why would they continue to do that?
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: Like you know, okay, you know that BeO is better
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: when you put an opener in front of him. Okay, fine,
• 24:55
  Speaker 5: then do that, But why would you make it Moron
• 24:57
  Speaker 5: again when he's been good pitching out of the but
• 25:00
  Speaker 5: he's obviously been bad as the opener, Like he gave
• 25:04
  Speaker 5: up two runs yesterday and that set the tone for
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: the game, Like fuck you dude, make me the manager.
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: Dude, I'm done.
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: Alex Coron needed to go. I mean, Chad Tracy probably
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: is better, but I'm done with this whole thing.
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: Man.
• 25:18
  Speaker 5: I don't know what else to say about this. I'm
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: really really pissed off here. For the game today, you
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: think the Red Sox should show up. They don't want
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: to get swept at home by a Minnesota team. It's
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: not good. Red Sox on the surface should have the
• 25:32
  Speaker 5: better starting pitcher on them mount here, but when you
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: start looking at the matchup, that's actually not really the case.
• 25:38
  Speaker 5: So I am not gonna be on the Red Sox
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: in this game. Red Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 25:45
  Speaker 5: One of them was Moran, though in the opener role.
• 25:48
  Speaker 5: Their better relievers are available here, so the Red Sox
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: do have a bullpen edge. Minnesota's bullpen's not good and
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: they had to They had a save situation yesterday.
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: So they used whoever they use in that situation.
• 26:00
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox bullpen has ranked fourth, and they have
• 26:03
  Speaker 5: one of the best bullpen rays. They're like a top
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: three or four bullpen ra as well. Minnesota is bad
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: twenty seventh out of thirty Red Sox offense has been
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: bad though they're twenty seventh. Minnesota is twelfth. But I
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: think good pitching counter is good hitting. However, Bailey Ober
• 26:23
  Speaker 5: is pitching for Minnesota and he's actually been good again again.
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: He's dude, He's up and down, up and down like
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: he's probably the streakiest pitcher I've ever seen. And right
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: now I think he's pitching well, So you don't really
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: want to fade him right now. He's got a three
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: point six three ERA one point oh seven whip. He's
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: been better.
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: Oh no excuse.
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: He's way worse on the road though, so I guess
• 26:46
  Speaker 5: he is fadable on the road. He's got a sixth
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: road ray, so maybe you can fade him on the road,
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: you know. I mean you could nitpick his last outing
• 26:56
  Speaker 5: because he only had one strikeout against Milwaukee. They're pretty
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: good team though, and he held them to three ear runs.
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: And the other thing was he had a complete game
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: shutout the game before that against Miami. Although he didn't
• 27:07
  Speaker 5: throw him any pitches in it, he still might have
• 27:10
  Speaker 5: been in a little bit of a letdown spot coming
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: off of that. Although he's kind of alternated good and
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: bad starts for a little while here, but I think
• 27:16
  Speaker 5: you can kind of give him a pass for that
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee game. He pitched against the Red Sox in that
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: prior series in April, and he gave up four runs,
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: but he got the win in the game. I think
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: that was the game where Garat Crochet got completely lit up.
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: I think maybe I'm wrong about that.
• 27:32
  Speaker 5: I don't know, but Ober was overall pretty good in
• 27:34
  Speaker 5: that game, though he had seven strikeouts one walk. Overall,
• 27:38
  Speaker 5: in the course of the season, he's allowing very few hits. Actually,
• 27:42
  Speaker 5: he's not really walking many guys either. To strikeout rate
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: is low. He does allow a lot of fly balls,
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: which normally wouldn't be a good thing in Fenway, and
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: his rodier is concerning as well. But overall his numbers
• 27:54
  Speaker 5: this season are good. He's allowed no more than four
• 27:56
  Speaker 5: and runs in any or sorry, he's allowed more than
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: four and runs once mistake, and he's allowed more than
• 28:01
  Speaker 5: three only twice, and against the Red Sox. He has
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: pretty good numbers in thirty nine at bats two fifty
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: six average, six to sixty oh ps, eleven to one
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio, and that does include that start previously
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: this year, Sonny Gray is pitching for the Red Sox.
• 28:18
  Speaker 5: He's having a good season, like I thought he was
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: a good offseason signing I ho'pe. He going up against
• 28:24
  Speaker 5: one of his former teams here, by the way, Minnesota,
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: But he hasn't been on Minnesota for a few years now,
• 28:29
  Speaker 5: so I don't think that really matters that much. He
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: was on Saint Louis last year, and he's thirty six
• 28:34
  Speaker 5: years old, so he's been on so many different teams.
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: I'm not sure that that matters. I'm assuming he's already
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: faced Minnesota since he's been off of their team anyway.
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: But he's got a two point nine to three ra
• 28:45
  Speaker 5: here one point one to three whip. He's been really
• 28:48
  Speaker 5: good at home, so the home road splits definitely do favor.
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: Gray here one point seven to one home ERA.
• 28:54
  Speaker 5: He's pitching well right now as well, since he came
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: back from that injury. He's made three good starts in
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: a row. Red Sox have won all but two of
• 29:02
  Speaker 5: his starts this season. All of that's a good sign.
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: He's got good numbers this month and over the course
• 29:09
  Speaker 5: of the season. His strike up rate, though, is actually
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: better this month than on the course of the season.
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: Over the course of the season.
• 29:16
  Speaker 5: It's a little bit low, but he's allowed pretty few
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: hits and few walks as well, so he is pitching
• 29:21
  Speaker 5: well against Minnesota, though he does not do that well
• 29:24
  Speaker 5: in eighty one at bats to eighty four average allowed,
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: seven ninety nine ohps, fifteen to four strikeout walk ratio.
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: I don't like seeing that. Man, The Red Sox should
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: show up here. The money is backing the Red Sox here,
• 29:38
  Speaker 5: sixty percent of tickets on Minnesota, fifty two percent of
• 29:41
  Speaker 5: the cash on the Red Sox.
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: Red Sox are favored at about minus one fifty their
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: favorite for a reason. Man.
• 29:49
  Speaker 5: You know the oddsmakers are telling you the Red Sox
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: are the better team. The biggest advantage they have here
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: is definitely the bullpen. Though, like you can make the
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: argument that Minnesota has a starting pitching EDG. You're looking
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: at that pitching matchup and looking at those numbers. So
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: if you were gonna go Minnesota here, I think you'd
• 30:05
  Speaker 5: have to do it first five. Don't want to go
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: with Minnesota's bullpen. If you go Red Sox, you definitely
• 30:11
  Speaker 5: want to go full game with it. They do have
• 30:14
  Speaker 5: the situational edge trying to.
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: Avoid the sweep.
• 30:16
  Speaker 5: I would have to say I worry about the pitching
• 30:19
  Speaker 5: matchup numbers though, so I'm not gonna be involved in
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: this game at all. But yeah, total seven and a
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: half money indicating towards the over in this one. But
• 30:28
  Speaker 5: it's bad weather here. There's actually a chance this game
• 30:31
  Speaker 5: gets rained out too. It's a little bit rainy here
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: in Boston. It's in the fifties here, so do with
• 30:38
  Speaker 5: that information.
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: What you want.
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: But the weather seems more underconducive here.
• 30:43
  Speaker 5: More because of the cool the coolness than the rain,
• 30:47
  Speaker 5: Like if the game is gonna be played, that means
• 30:49
  Speaker 5: it's not raining.
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: So that's what I have to say about that.
• 30:54
  Speaker 5: The next game up will be my only play in
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: baseball here. This is Yankees Tampa. I know this total
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: is really low, but we're going under it.
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: It's low for a reason. I liked the under yesterday.
• 31:11
  Speaker 5: But I think the setup is a little bit more
• 31:13
  Speaker 5: advantageous here today because the game got rained out yesterday.
• 31:17
  Speaker 5: So we have the same starting pitching matchup that was
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: going to take place yesterday, but now we have the
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: bats might have cooled off a little bit because they
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: didn't play yesterday, and the bullpens get rest, So I
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: like this.
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: Even though Tampa Bay's bullpen might.
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: Have some issues, they're probably better than their numbers would suggest.
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: And the Yankees bullpen's been pretty good as well, So
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: that's kind of where we start here. I should probably
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: just bring that up. The Yankees are tenth in bullpen
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: right now. Rays are thirteenth, although I know they're erays
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: in the mid fours, but they started out really bad
• 31:49
  Speaker 5: and then they got way better, so I think there
• 31:52
  Speaker 5: and then they did drop off a little bit, but
• 31:53
  Speaker 5: I think their current form is a lot better than
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: what they were at the beginning of the season. So
• 31:58
  Speaker 5: I think both bullpens you can ride both bullpens here
• 32:02
  Speaker 5: in my opinion, and they're both rested, so I'm not
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: that concerned about that hitting. Yes, we know both teams
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: can hit, but I think for that reason and because
• 32:10
  Speaker 5: people are gonna look at this pitching matchup and they
• 32:13
  Speaker 5: the public is not gonna want to play an under
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: in this game.
• 32:16
  Speaker 4: Let's just put it that way.
• 32:17
  Speaker 5: These are not household names pitching in this game, so
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: they're not gonna go under this. The seven looks way
• 32:23
  Speaker 5: too easy to go over it. With the Yankees number
• 32:26
  Speaker 5: three in offense, and the Yankees are the number one
• 32:29
  Speaker 5: offense at home, so I know we're fading that here.
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna do it.
• 32:33
  Speaker 5: I've done it at least once this year and gotten
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: to win with one, so we're gonna do it again here.
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: And yes, Tampa's fifth in offense. Yes, the Yankee Stadium
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: is a hitter friendly ballpark, but like I said, it's
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: kind of cool and cloudy and rainy ish up here.
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: This game actually could get rained out again as well.
• 32:51
  Speaker 5: All across the Northeast right now, the weather's like fifty
• 32:55
  Speaker 5: something degrees rainy. It's really similar in New York and
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: Boston right now. So the game might wind up getting
• 33:03
  Speaker 5: postponed and we might wind up only having one play tonight,
• 33:05
  Speaker 5: but we're going with this for now. I like the
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: fact that the offenses might be a little bit cooled off.
• 33:12
  Speaker 5: It's gonna be cool weather. Bullpen's arrested, and I don't
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: think that either bullpen is that bad. I think a
• 33:18
  Speaker 5: pitching can overcome good hitting. And then we look at
• 33:20
  Speaker 5: the starting pitching matchup. Drew Rasmus in his pitching for
• 33:23
  Speaker 5: the Rays. Nobody knows who he is, but he's like
• 33:26
  Speaker 5: their most consistent pitcher. He's got a three point one
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: to nine ERA one whip. He's been a little bit
• 33:32
  Speaker 5: worse on the road four point oh one Roady Ray,
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: but I still think he can pitch well here. I mean,
• 33:37
  Speaker 5: he hasn't really had any bad outings all season. He
• 33:40
  Speaker 5: had I guess, one bad outing on the road against Pittsburgh.
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: Besides that, he's allowed no more than three runs in
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: any outing, including a home start where he one hit
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: shut out the Yankees for six innings, seven strikeouts, no walks.
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: So he pitched really well against the Yankees.
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: In that outing.
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: Now, sure the Yankees might adjust and fit or something
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: out and do better against him this time, but they've
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: seen him before, so.
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: I don't know if that's gonna be enough.
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: The fact they saw him back in April when they
• 34:07
  Speaker 5: already know who he is, and his matchup numbers are
• 34:10
  Speaker 5: excellent against the Yankees. He's got eighty nine at bats
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: against them, thirty six strikeouts, nine walks, one twelve batting
• 34:18
  Speaker 5: average allowed.
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: Three eighty five ops.
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: Rasmussen has dominated the Yankees, so it wasn't just that
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: one outing, even though that was a particularly good outing.
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: But he doesn't even need to be that good in
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: this game. To get this under, he just needs to
• 34:33
  Speaker 5: do what he normally does, which I think he could
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: do that get us.
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: You know, five to six innings basically is what'll usually do.
• 34:40
  Speaker 5: In fact, they've actually started increasing his pitch count though,
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: because he was a guy that the Rays were like
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: having go exactly five innings all the time. But now
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: they're letting him go deeper into outings. So we'll see
• 34:51
  Speaker 5: if they do that here. But if he gives you
• 34:53
  Speaker 5: like his normal outing, he's gonna go five six innings,
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: allow two or three runs.
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: Hopefully that's what he's gonna do here. I don't want
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: to jinx it.
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: Then.
• 35:01
  Speaker 5: On the other side, Ryan Weathers is probably the lesser
• 35:04
  Speaker 5: of the two pitchers, also an unknown to most people,
• 35:07
  Speaker 5: like the public. Betters are not gonna betting an under here,
• 35:11
  Speaker 5: like I said, but Weathers has actually been pretty good
• 35:14
  Speaker 5: this year three point five eighty RA one point one
• 35:16
  Speaker 5: to three whip.
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit worse at home, so I
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: know the home.
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: Road splits are kind of against this under, but it's
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: not like either of these pitchers has.
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: Bad numbers home or away. Here.
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: Weather's three point nine to three home ye ra he
• 35:31
  Speaker 5: didn't pitch that well in his last outing, and that
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: he gave up five runs against Toronto, but he had
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: seven strikeouts, no walks, so he got a little bit
• 35:39
  Speaker 5: unlucky there. Like basically every guy he put on base
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: scored pretty much in that outing, give up two of
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: them runs, so I'm gonna give him a pass for that.
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: He's had two outings that look like that this season,
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: but it was because he got lit up for home
• 35:53
  Speaker 5: runs and both those outings, So if you take those
• 35:55
  Speaker 5: two outings away, He's allowed three or fewer earned runs
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: in every outing, two or fewer all but one.
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: He's got a high strikeout rate way.
• 36:03
  Speaker 5: Over one per inning, below one hit all out per inning,
• 36:05
  Speaker 5: and his walk rates not that high either, So his
• 36:08
  Speaker 5: overall numbers look pretty good to me. And Tampa is
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: not familiar with him. They only have three hitters I've
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: ever faced him. They're one for four, the only hit
• 36:16
  Speaker 5: is a double from Taylor Walls, no strikeouts, no walks,
• 36:22
  Speaker 5: So Weathers has a little bit of an unfamiliarity edge year,
• 36:25
  Speaker 5: so I like it. I think the pitching looks like
• 36:27
  Speaker 5: it's set up to be good throughout this game. So
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: under seven raise Yankees is my one baseball play here.
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: If the game doesn't get rained out, the money's not
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: even agreeing with me. Eighty seven percent of tickets seventy
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: three percent of the cash on the under here. But
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: I'm going with the way that I handicap man.
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: The total is this low for a reason.
• 36:47
  Speaker 5: As I always say, usually if the total seven seven
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: and a half, my I'm going to either be passing
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: on the game or going under with it, So you
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: know what I mean, or you know, I might be
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: playing the side and the but I mean if I'm
• 37:00
  Speaker 5: focusing on the total, usually with a low total like that,
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: I'll be going under it or I'll be passing the game.
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: So we will go under in that one. Hopefully we
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: can get it done. But I don't even think these
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: percentages are accurate. Like, there's no way the public is
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: playing an under with Rasmussen and Weathers on the mountain
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: a raise Yankees game. There's just no way. It is
• 37:22
  Speaker 5: also crazy that the Rays have like a five to
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: five and a half game lead in that division right
• 37:27
  Speaker 5: now over the Yankees. The Rays are not the better team,
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: and speaking of that, the side the Yankees are favored,
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: even though Rasmussen is probably Tampa's best pitcher. The Yankees
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: are still favored at minus one thirty or so, so
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: the oddsmakers are telling you the Yankees are the better
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: team because they're favored despite not having the better of
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: the two starting pitchers there. But you know, I mean
• 37:50
  Speaker 5: the money is indicating on Tampa there. For what that's
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: worth fifty per tickets seventy two percent of the cash
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: on Tampa. I don't really disagree with that. I might
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: go first five if I went Tampa, though, because I
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: think the Yankees actually have the better bullpen. But I
• 38:04
  Speaker 5: think Rasmussen is probably better than Weathers. But I like
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: the under in that one. Mets Miami. We got the
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: under correct yesterday, four to one win for Miami. Miami's
• 38:15
  Speaker 5: on the verge of a sweep here. Miami, like I said,
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: is playing Toronto next. I don't really think that's a
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: look ahead. But the Mets might show up with a
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: little bit of an extra intensity here because they're on
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: the verge of the sweep. I will tell you right now,
• 38:27
  Speaker 5: this game is not a game wher I would want
• 38:29
  Speaker 5: to be on an under. Yesterday was a nice under
• 38:34
  Speaker 5: set up. This game is not Miami used two relief
• 38:37
  Speaker 5: pitchers yesterday Mets only used one, so the bullpens are
• 38:40
  Speaker 5: pretty good still, the bullpen's are rested. Miami is sixth
• 38:44
  Speaker 5: in bullpen the Mets are ninth Offensively, the Mets are
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: still dead last thirtieth man and Miami is eighteenth. So
• 38:54
  Speaker 5: Miami does have the better offense, I mean, who doesn't.
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: The starting pitching, though, the Mets are going with an
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: actual starter versus a Miami bulp end game, the Mets
• 39:05
  Speaker 5: are going with Christian Scott, who is pretty young still,
• 39:09
  Speaker 5: so I still think we don't really know who he
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: is yet. He's got a four point one two ERA,
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: but a one point four to seven whip is not
• 39:16
  Speaker 5: very good. He's been a little bit better on the
• 39:18
  Speaker 5: road three point nine to five road ERA. He's only
• 39:21
  Speaker 5: gone five innings once, though, although the Mets have won
• 39:24
  Speaker 5: four out of his five outings and he has not
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: allowed more than three on runs in any outing, so
• 39:28
  Speaker 5: he actually is not pitching bad if you look at
• 39:31
  Speaker 5: his overall numbers. The walks are actually the walks are
• 39:34
  Speaker 5: a big concern, but the rest of the numbers are
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: not bad. Over one strike up er inning below one
• 39:39
  Speaker 5: hit per inning, he's got to get the walk number
• 39:41
  Speaker 5: under control.
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: But even that's not.
• 39:44
  Speaker 5: As bad as it looks, because he walked five guys
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: in his first outing against Minnesota. That's almost half of
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: the walks, and since then, obviously the walk number has
• 39:52
  Speaker 5: dropped a bit, although you know, it's still a little
• 39:54
  Speaker 5: bit of a concern. But I think Scott is actually
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: pitching decently here. Miami only has two hitters have ever
• 40:01
  Speaker 5: faced him before, although Edwards has two double or sorry
• 40:05
  Speaker 5: two singles against him Xavier Edwards. Overall, they're combined two
• 40:09
  Speaker 5: for five off him, Between Edwards and Lopez Auto Lopez
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: one strikeout, no walks. Scott might actually pitch well here,
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: but I don't really. I wouldn't really want to bank
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: on it, but he might. I think he's better than
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: his numbers suggests, and he's pretty unfamiliar to Miami, which
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: should be an advantage. Braxton Garrett was supposed to. It
• 40:31
  Speaker 5: was supposed to be his turn in the rotation. Garrett
• 40:34
  Speaker 5: is an interesting situation man for Miami because he was
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: good a few years ago and then he got injured,
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: missed over an entire season, and Garrett has really really
• 40:43
  Speaker 5: struggled in his first couple of starts this season, so
• 40:46
  Speaker 5: Miami is.
• 40:48
  Speaker 4: I don't know what they're doing here.
• 40:49
  Speaker 5: They're either putting an opener in front of Garrett or
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: they're skipping him. I don't know what they're doing here.
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: But Tyler Phillips is the listed starter. He's not a starter.
• 40:58
  Speaker 5: He's a relief pitcher, so he is probably gonna give
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: you an opener. But he did go three innings in
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: his last outing, but that was four days ago, so
• 41:06
  Speaker 5: he's not on a starter's rest right now, so I
• 41:09
  Speaker 5: don't know what you're gonna get here.
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: He might go two three innings maybe, you know.
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: I don't know if it's worth really handicapping Phillips because
• 41:17
  Speaker 5: I don't think he's gonna be out there that long.
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: Those numbers are okay this season, mostly working out of
• 41:22
  Speaker 5: the bullpen. Numbers are okay against the Mets as well.
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: I think the Mets set up better here because at
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: least they have an actual starter here against what looks
• 41:32
  Speaker 5: like it's gonna be a bullpen game basically, so I'm
• 41:34
  Speaker 5: gonna lean.
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: Mets here to avoid the sweep.
• 41:38
  Speaker 5: The Mets are actually favored, which I think they were
• 41:42
  Speaker 5: yesterday too, and that did not help, but their favorite
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: for a reason, though actually yesterday they might not have
• 41:48
  Speaker 5: been because Max Meyer is pretty good, but it was
• 41:51
  Speaker 5: against Peralta, who is also good. But the Mets are
• 41:54
  Speaker 5: about a minus one fifteen favorite here money is indicating
• 41:58
  Speaker 5: against them. Fifty two percent ticket, two percent of cash
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: on Miami. Yeah, but still I don't know, man, the
• 42:04
  Speaker 5: Mets going with an actual starter over a Miami bullpen game.
• 42:09
  Speaker 5: A leen Mets in that one, but not really a
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: strong opinion. Mark Claire, what's up?
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: Man? Under seven and a half on Tampa and the Yankees?
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: All right?
• 42:19
  Speaker 5: Hell yeah, I wonder can we still get us seven
• 42:22
  Speaker 5: and a half? You probably had to pay a little
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: bit of juice for that, right, But I would not
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: disagree with it, like if you if you find it
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: at minus one twenty or something. I see a couple
• 42:32
  Speaker 5: of books have it right now, but it's juiced minus
• 42:35
  Speaker 5: one twenty four I see.
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: At the at FD and at the.
• 42:41
  Speaker 5: Gym that starts with the B where I don't think
• 42:43
  Speaker 5: I can bet there anymore.
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: Those two places.
• 42:48
  Speaker 5: But yeah, seven and a half, obviously that's a good
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: number you get the hook.
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: Seven is a key number.
• 42:54
  Speaker 5: So but yeah, I'm I'm if it was at minus
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: one twenty. I would go under seven and a half,
• 43:00
  Speaker 5: but it's because it's more expensive than that. I'm opting
• 43:04
  Speaker 5: to go with the plus. I'm opting to go with
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: under seven at not plus money, but at.
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: Reduced juice price.
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: All right, Saint Louis at Cincinnati, we got game two
• 43:16
  Speaker 5: correct yesterday with an over that was correct. So these
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: two teams played two games yesterday, which usually means you
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: want to look towards another over in the next game
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: because the bullpens are gonna be very taxed after playing
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: two games. Although it could mean the offenses are a
• 43:31
  Speaker 5: little bit tiger, but I think it affects the pitching more.
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis basically used every one of their relief pitchers
• 43:37
  Speaker 5: between the two games yesterday, and both bullpens here are
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: bad as well. Cincinnati only used five at least according
• 43:43
  Speaker 5: to who's on this graph here, but basically every relief
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: pitcher got used yesterday for the most part, and we're
• 43:50
  Speaker 5: looking at bad bullpens. Cincinnati's ranked twenty ninth, which is
• 43:53
  Speaker 5: second to last, although they don't have the second worst ERA,
• 43:56
  Speaker 5: but there's still bottom three or four and bullpeny rs.
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: I think bottom three.
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis is a little bit better than that, but
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: twenty seconds still not very good. Both teams have been
• 44:07
  Speaker 5: able to hit Saint Louis eleventh and since Cincinnati fifteenth offensively.
• 44:14
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati has been up and down offensively. But this is
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: also a hitter friendly ballpark here. Bryson Motts is pitching
• 44:21
  Speaker 5: for Saint Louis here. He's making his major league debut here.
• 44:25
  Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure he is a six to three thin
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: left hander. A lot of times left handers it's tougher
• 44:33
  Speaker 5: to pick their pitches up because you see fewer of them,
• 44:37
  Speaker 5: and their arm angle tends to be a little bit
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: different for whatever reason.
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: Because they're they're of the devil Man lefties. So we'll see.
• 44:45
  Speaker 5: But he might have a little bit of an edge
• 44:47
  Speaker 5: here because he's facing a lineup that hasn't seen them
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: seen him before.
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: But I'm gonna counter that a little bit.
• 44:53
  Speaker 5: I've looked at Motts's numbers and I have some concerns.
• 44:57
  Speaker 5: Like he's been pitching pretty well in Triple A, Like
• 45:00
  Speaker 5: his era looks pretty good right now in Triple A,
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: but his.
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: Walk number is like sky high. That's the problem.
• 45:07
  Speaker 5: He's got a good strikeout rat in Triple A tails
• 45:10
  Speaker 5: old as time man. Lots of strikeouts, but a lot
• 45:13
  Speaker 5: of walks. So he's gonna come up to the majors here.
• 45:15
  Speaker 5: He's got to somehow get those walk numbers under control.
• 45:19
  Speaker 5: I don't know if he's gonna be able to do
• 45:21
  Speaker 5: that right away, so I don't want to bank on
• 45:23
  Speaker 5: him here to have a good start, although he might,
• 45:27
  Speaker 5: but I don't want to bank on I also looked
• 45:29
  Speaker 5: at his scouting. He's like mid nineties fastball basically. He's
• 45:33
  Speaker 5: got kind of a typical arsenal. His best pitch is
• 45:35
  Speaker 5: a slider that has a lot of movement on it,
• 45:38
  Speaker 5: and he throws a sinker pretty often as well, that
• 45:40
  Speaker 5: I guess is a decent one of his pitches.
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: And then I guess he.
• 45:43
  Speaker 5: Has a curve and a change up that are both
• 45:46
  Speaker 5: mediocre and sort of works in progress. So not totally
• 45:49
  Speaker 5: like a full major league Arsenal here, So I don't know.
• 45:54
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's not like any elite level prospect. He
• 45:57
  Speaker 5: is going up against Brady Singer for the Reds, who
• 45:59
  Speaker 5: is not good. Season six point two six ERA one
• 46:03
  Speaker 5: point seven whip. He's been way better at home though,
• 46:06
  Speaker 5: four point twenty six home era. I don't know why
• 46:09
  Speaker 5: that's the case, but it is. He's not pitching well
• 46:12
  Speaker 5: right now, except that his strikeout walk ratio this month
• 46:16
  Speaker 5: is actually not that bad fifteen to five. But he's
• 46:19
  Speaker 5: allowed nine more hits than innings pitch, so he's been
• 46:22
  Speaker 5: extremely hittable this month.
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: So that's really his problem. He's he's really really hittable.
• 46:27
  Speaker 5: He's allowed twenty more hits and in he's pitched on
• 46:29
  Speaker 5: the season, plus fourteen home runs. That is some bad stuff, dude.
• 46:35
  Speaker 5: His other numbers are not that bad. I mean, his
• 46:37
  Speaker 5: strike up rates not high, but his walk rates also
• 46:40
  Speaker 5: not high.
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: Hit ability is this problem.
• 46:43
  Speaker 5: He just gets knocked around, and the Reds have lost
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: four starts in a row of his His numbers against
• 46:48
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis are actually good though, in forty nine at bats,
• 46:51
  Speaker 5: one eighty four batting average, allowed six h eight ops,
• 46:54
  Speaker 5: seventeen to four strike out walk ratio. So when I
• 46:58
  Speaker 5: first looked at this game, I was definitely thinking over
• 47:01
  Speaker 5: and I don't necessarily disagree. The total is nine and
• 47:05
  Speaker 5: a half, which is pretty high, and it looks like
• 47:07
  Speaker 5: it's headed towards ten. Money is indicating a little bit
• 47:10
  Speaker 5: on the over as well, sixty six percent of the tickets,
• 47:12
  Speaker 5: seventy percent of the cash over. But I just showed
• 47:18
  Speaker 5: you some reasons why I have hesitations. We have one
• 47:20
  Speaker 5: picture that's a complete unknown, which could be an advantage
• 47:23
  Speaker 5: to him in some ways, and then we got another
• 47:26
  Speaker 5: picture who pitches significantly better at home and actually has
• 47:28
  Speaker 5: good matchup numbers here. So I don't want to do it,
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: but over was kind of my read here. If you
• 47:36
  Speaker 5: go over, obviously, I'm gonna say you gotta go full
• 47:38
  Speaker 5: game with that, because you want to take advantage of
• 47:40
  Speaker 5: two bad bullpens that have basically nobody that didn't pitch yesterday.
• 47:45
  Speaker 5: That would be the main reason to like the over
• 47:47
  Speaker 5: in this game here. As far as the side the
• 47:51
  Speaker 5: money is coming in on Saint Louis, I don't really
• 47:54
  Speaker 5: have a good read on that.
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: I'm I probably disagree with that.
• 47:57
  Speaker 5: Really, Cincinnati has fifty seven percent of tickets on them,
• 48:00
  Speaker 5: seventy six percent of the cash on Saint Louis. I
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: just think you don't know what you're gonna get out
• 48:05
  Speaker 5: of Motts here. I mean, maybe he pitches okay, uh,
• 48:08
  Speaker 5: Singer does at least have good home stats and matchup stats.
• 48:11
  Speaker 5: Though Cincinnati is favored at minus one twenty, and they're
• 48:15
  Speaker 5: favored for a reason, man over a Saint Louis team
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: that has a better record than they do. There's a
• 48:19
  Speaker 5: reason why Cincinnati is actually favored. So I think it
• 48:22
  Speaker 5: almost looks too easy to take Saint Louis at an
• 48:25
  Speaker 5: underdog price there.
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: But do with that information what you want.
• 48:28
  Speaker 5: But my reid on both games and that double header
• 48:30
  Speaker 5: yesterday were pretty good. I was correct about game one
• 48:33
  Speaker 5: my lean in that game with Saint Louis, and they
• 48:36
  Speaker 5: did win eight to one in that game, so but
• 48:39
  Speaker 5: I might be wrong about that game, So do what
• 48:42
  Speaker 5: you want with that. Dodgers Milwaukee the big series of
• 48:45
  Speaker 5: the weekend. These teams will split the first two games.
• 48:49
  Speaker 5: Dodgers bounced back with a big win eleven to three yesterday.
• 48:53
  Speaker 5: My leans in that game were correct as well. My
• 48:55
  Speaker 5: leans were Dodgers and Over, and both of those were correct,
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: although I didn't feel that strong about it. I think
• 49:01
  Speaker 5: Over was my stronger opinion there. Milwaukee lost a four
• 49:04
  Speaker 5: game win streak. Sometimes when you lose a win streak,
• 49:06
  Speaker 5: it'll hang you over a little bit into the next game. Here,
• 49:10
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers are a heavy road favor here, even though
• 49:13
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee is a good team. Maybe you can make the
• 49:16
  Speaker 5: argument the Dodgers are too heavy of a favorite here,
• 49:19
  Speaker 5: but you could also argue their favorite like that for
• 49:22
  Speaker 5: a reason here. And I think the starting pitching matchup
• 49:26
  Speaker 5: does favor the Dodgers here, but maybe you're paying too
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: much of a price. I mean, it's the Dodgers with
• 49:32
  Speaker 5: Yamamoto on the mound, so probably yeah, you're guaranteed that
• 49:35
  Speaker 5: you're probably paying too much for that if you're gonna
• 49:38
  Speaker 5: play the Dodgers' side here. Dodgers used four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 49:42
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee used three. Both bullpens have been good. Dodgers are
• 49:46
  Speaker 5: ranked number two. They have the best bullpenny ray right now,
• 49:50
  Speaker 5: which is pretty crazy to think about because their bullpen
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: wasn't very good last year. They did add some good
• 49:56
  Speaker 5: relief pitchers this year, but that turnaround is still crazy.
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: Brewers bullpen's been good as well.
• 50:01
  Speaker 5: They ranked sixteenth, but their era is pretty good, so
• 50:06
  Speaker 5: I like both bullpens. The Dodgers are number one in
• 50:08
  Speaker 5: offense and the Brewers are sixteenth. They've started to hit
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: better as they start getting their guys back, but they
• 50:15
  Speaker 5: got to go up against Yoshinobu Yama Moto. Like I said,
• 50:19
  Speaker 5: he's been really good. Three point three two ERA, point
• 50:23
  Speaker 5: nine to six whip is very good. Indicates that his
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: ERA maybe should be lower than it is. He is
• 50:28
  Speaker 5: slightly worse. Oh, he's on the road here. What am
• 50:31
  Speaker 5: I saying? He's on the road here. He's better on
• 50:32
  Speaker 5: the road for whatever reason. Two point seven to seven
• 50:35
  Speaker 5: road ERA Dodgers, by the way, also are a good
• 50:38
  Speaker 5: road offense as well. I think they're the best road
• 50:41
  Speaker 5: offense this season right now based on runs scored per game.
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: So something to keep in mind there.
• 50:47
  Speaker 5: Yamamoto had a couple of iffy outings and then he
• 50:50
  Speaker 5: bounced back nicely, pretty much dominated San Diego and his
• 50:54
  Speaker 5: last outing. Although san Diego is not very good, but Yamamoto,
• 50:57
  Speaker 5: I mean, I'm pretty much never gonna fit him, Like
• 51:00
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna find another way to play the game, I'm
• 51:02
  Speaker 5: gonna play it. He's got a good strikeout rate basically
• 51:05
  Speaker 5: right at one per inning, pretty low walk rate in
• 51:07
  Speaker 5: a low hit rate as well.
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: We know he's good.
• 51:11
  Speaker 5: Numbers against Milwaukee are also good and thirty three at
• 51:13
  Speaker 5: bats one fifty two batting average allowed, six oh seven
• 51:17
  Speaker 5: OPS four to four strike at walk ratio is not
• 51:20
  Speaker 5: very good, but I think he will pitch well here.
• 51:23
  Speaker 5: The wildcard here is Brandon Sprote, who's pitching for the Brewers.
• 51:27
  Speaker 5: His numbers definitely look bad. Five point seventy five ERA,
• 51:31
  Speaker 5: one point five whip. That's obviously not good. It's interesting
• 51:36
  Speaker 5: because he has a high strikeout rate. This month, Milwaukee's
• 51:39
  Speaker 5: won all three of his outings, but they've given him
• 51:42
  Speaker 5: some run support. He hasn't been that great really, although
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: he did shut out Saint Louis for four innings. He
• 51:48
  Speaker 5: held San Diego to three runs, but hasn't gone deep
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: into any of these outings that He didn't make it
• 51:52
  Speaker 5: five innings against the Cobs. He walked way too many
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: guys across that stretch though. He had sixteen strikeouts and
• 51:58
  Speaker 5: fourteen innings and only ten hits allowed but eight walks.
• 52:02
  Speaker 5: So the walks are definitely an issue. If you look
• 52:04
  Speaker 5: at the whole season, it's right in line with that.
• 52:07
  Speaker 5: Like he's allowed fewer than one hit per inning, which
• 52:10
  Speaker 5: is the threshold I like to look for.
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: That's good.
• 52:13
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is definitely too high, and his strike
• 52:16
  Speaker 5: up rate is pretty good more than one per inning,
• 52:18
  Speaker 5: so He's got some ability here to fool major league hitters.
• 52:22
  Speaker 5: If he was not walking guys, he would actually be
• 52:24
  Speaker 5: a pretty good pitcher, I think, and maybe he can
• 52:27
  Speaker 5: get there.
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: But the Dodgers are going to be a difficult task.
• 52:31
  Speaker 5: Dodgers haven't seen him before though, so he does have
• 52:34
  Speaker 5: that advantage, if you want to call it that, the
• 52:37
  Speaker 5: unfamiliarity where the Dodgers might have to figure him out here.
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: I think the Dodgers probably do get this.
• 52:42
  Speaker 5: Win, though they're minus one sixty five seventy eight percent
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: of tickets eighty.
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: Nine percent of the cash on them.
• 52:48
  Speaker 5: Money is indicating on the Dodgers, but I really want
• 52:50
  Speaker 5: to lay that price, though probably not.
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: I see some arguments for an under here.
• 52:56
  Speaker 5: The totals around eight money is coming in on the
• 52:59
  Speaker 5: end or fifty percent of the tickets on the over
• 53:01
  Speaker 5: eighty nine percent of the cash on the under.
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: At least according to this wager Talk Odds screen here.
• 53:06
  Speaker 5: Because pregame is never gonna fix theirs, even though there's
• 53:10
  Speaker 5: helped me more. But I've been doing really well without
• 53:13
  Speaker 5: it some whatever. Let's hope we can continue that anyway. Yeah,
• 53:17
  Speaker 5: I don't have a good read on this game, really, uh.
• 53:20
  Speaker 5: Like the the major question mark here is Sprout, Like
• 53:25
  Speaker 5: I see a wide range of possibilities out of him here.
• 53:28
  Speaker 5: He could do well and you could get to your
• 53:30
  Speaker 5: under here, or he could get totally blown up and
• 53:33
  Speaker 5: then the Dodgers get an easy win. I don't know
• 53:35
  Speaker 5: which way it's gonna go here, but yeah, I would
• 53:39
  Speaker 5: slightly lean towards the Dodgers. If you play the Dodgers
• 53:41
  Speaker 5: that you gotta find a way to play it. That's
• 53:44
  Speaker 5: not the money line. I mean, I don't know.
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: You could, I guess, make your.
• 53:47
  Speaker 5: Own minus one run line and lay you know, partially
• 53:50
  Speaker 5: on the minus one and a half run line, partially
• 53:52
  Speaker 5: on the money line, get the price down that way,
• 53:55
  Speaker 5: and then you need them to win by one to
• 53:56
  Speaker 5: at least bat in the ninth inning.
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: I mean, I I could see it.
• 54:01
  Speaker 5: Happening, because they do score a lot of runs on
• 54:02
  Speaker 5: the road. Perhaps the other way to look at it
• 54:06
  Speaker 5: is maybe to go Milwaukee under their team total and
• 54:09
  Speaker 5: go with Milwaukee and not score that many runs here
• 54:11
  Speaker 5: against the pitching they're facing. That would be an option
• 54:14
  Speaker 5: as well. Like, if you like the Dodgers and you
• 54:16
  Speaker 5: like the under, maybe you want to go with the
• 54:18
  Speaker 5: team you expect to lose to go under their total,
• 54:21
  Speaker 5: so that's a possibility Seattle at Kansas City. Kansas City
• 54:25
  Speaker 5: ended a losing streak finally with a five to nothing
• 54:28
  Speaker 5: win yesterday. These teams will split the first two games
• 54:30
  Speaker 5: of the series, with both teams winning in a shutout.
• 54:34
  Speaker 5: When a team ends a losing streak, like the Royals
• 54:36
  Speaker 5: did a lot of times, that will give them new
• 54:37
  Speaker 5: momentum coming to the next game. But if you look
• 54:41
  Speaker 5: at the starting pitching matchup here, it's I'm probably not
• 54:44
  Speaker 5: gonna be fading Seattle. Given that they have Wu on
• 54:47
  Speaker 5: the mound here, I'm highly unlikely to fade Wu in
• 54:52
  Speaker 5: pretty much any situation. Mariners used two relief pitchers yesterday.
• 54:56
  Speaker 5: They have the better bullpen here. Kansas City, according to
• 54:59
  Speaker 5: this didn't use any Is that right.
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 55:02
  Speaker 5: I didn't look at the box score, but I guess
• 55:03
  Speaker 5: that's right unless they use somebody who's not on the
• 55:07
  Speaker 5: active roster. Now, usually that website is accurate, though, I
• 55:11
  Speaker 5: think it's roadal Wire.
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 55:14
  Speaker 5: Anyway, Seattle's ranked seventeenth, but they have a really good bullpen. Eray,
• 55:18
  Speaker 5: that's the bullpen ranking they're tied for. I think the
• 55:22
  Speaker 5: third best bullpen. The Ray tied with Texas, so.
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: They have a good bullpen.
• 55:27
  Speaker 5: Kansas City not good at twenty sixth. Offensively, neither team
• 55:31
  Speaker 5: has really been that good. Seattle is where is Seattle?
• 55:37
  Speaker 4: By the hell?
• 55:38
  Speaker 5: Don't I say other They are twenty fourth, Kansas City
• 55:40
  Speaker 5: twenty third.
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 55:41
  Speaker 5: I think Seattle probably does have a slightly better offense, though,
• 55:45
  Speaker 5: like I said, who's pitching for the Mariners here? He
• 55:49
  Speaker 5: might be their best pitchers still, I mean usually the
• 55:51
  Speaker 5: last couple of seasons he has been three point five
• 55:54
  Speaker 5: to one ERA point nine to eight whip is very good.
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit worse on the road.
• 56:00
  Speaker 5: Ually all of Seattle's pitchers are worse on the road
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: because they pitching a pitcher friendly Seattle stadium, but this
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: year most of their starters are actually worse at home,
• 56:09
  Speaker 5: except for Wu Wou's got a four point one to
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: eight Roadie Ray. I still don't really want to fade
• 56:14
  Speaker 5: him though. He's in really good form right now. After
• 56:16
  Speaker 5: he had a little bit of a blip with two
• 56:18
  Speaker 5: bad starts, but one of them was against the Royals
• 56:21
  Speaker 5: at home.
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: He gave up six runs to them. But I don't know.
• 56:24
  Speaker 5: He still wasn't exactly bad in that outing though, like
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: basically every guy he put on Bay scored in that outing.
• 56:31
  Speaker 5: He only had two strikeouts, which isn't good, but he
• 56:33
  Speaker 5: didn't walk anybody. And since then his strike out rate
• 56:36
  Speaker 5: has gone way up and he's allowed no more than
• 56:39
  Speaker 5: to earn runs in his last three outings starts against Atlanta, Houston,
• 56:43
  Speaker 5: and the White Sox, and those teams are all ranked
• 56:45
  Speaker 5: in the top ten offensively right now, so he's pitching
• 56:49
  Speaker 5: well right now.
• 56:50
  Speaker 4: Over the course of the season.
• 56:52
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is not that high, it's below one
• 56:54
  Speaker 5: per inning, but still not bad. His walk rate is low,
• 56:58
  Speaker 5: and his hit rate is really low as well. WU
• 57:00
  Speaker 5: is good, we get it. Even with that last start
• 57:03
  Speaker 5: against the Royals, he still has pretty good numbers against
• 57:05
  Speaker 5: them thirty seven at best, two forty three average, allowed
• 57:09
  Speaker 5: seven to twenty three oh ps.
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: By the way, I think I lost on the under.
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: I think that was a loser.
• 57:13
  Speaker 5: I gave it on the show in that previous WU
• 57:16
  Speaker 5: game against the Royals. I'm pretty sure we had an
• 57:18
  Speaker 5: under loss in that game. I was pretty shocked about it.
• 57:23
  Speaker 5: I might be wrong about that, but I think that
• 57:24
  Speaker 5: was the case seven to one strike got walk ration
• 57:28
  Speaker 5: for WU against the Royals. He's going up against Seth Lugo.
• 57:33
  Speaker 5: You know, the advanced analytics guys hate Logo, and I
• 57:37
  Speaker 5: guess I'm starting to see why because his ERA looks
• 57:39
  Speaker 5: good three point sixty eight, but his whip is not
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: good one point four, so he might be a little
• 57:45
  Speaker 5: bit of a concern here. He's been worse at home
• 57:48
  Speaker 5: as well, four point one to five home era. He
• 57:52
  Speaker 5: pitched well in his last outing, but it was against
• 57:54
  Speaker 5: the Red Sox, one of the worst offenses. He's had
• 57:56
  Speaker 5: two good outings out of his four outings this month.
• 58:00
  Speaker 5: One of them was against Seattle, which I don't remember
• 58:03
  Speaker 5: if I gave out an under that seems like it
• 58:04
  Speaker 5: would have been an under game depending on.
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: Who Seattle's pitcher was.
• 58:08
  Speaker 5: It might not have been a play for me, though,
• 58:09
  Speaker 5: But he pitched well at Seattle back on May second. Overall, though,
• 58:14
  Speaker 5: this month is walk number has been pretty elevated, so
• 58:17
  Speaker 5: that's definitely a concern. He's a lot a lot of
• 58:19
  Speaker 5: hits actually too, so that is a concern. You look
• 58:22
  Speaker 5: at his overall numbers, they're getting worse. His strike out
• 58:25
  Speaker 5: rates a little bit low, He's allowed more than one
• 58:27
  Speaker 5: hit per inning on the season, which isn't good, and
• 58:29
  Speaker 5: his walk rate is now too high as well. So
• 58:32
  Speaker 5: I definitely have some concerns with Lugo putting too many
• 58:35
  Speaker 5: guys on base, but he's generally good against Seattle. In fact,
• 58:38
  Speaker 5: he has good matchup numbers better than Wo's here seventy
• 58:43
  Speaker 5: seventy at bats, twenty to three, strike out walk ratio
• 58:46
  Speaker 5: two fourteen average, allowed five forty seven ops.
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: This game. I mean, I don't know, this game reads
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: is an under to me. I mean, I don't know.
• 58:56
  Speaker 5: Maybe I'm stuck in my ways, but I think an
• 58:58
  Speaker 5: under would be the way I would look at this game.
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: I don't love Kansas City's bullpen, but they are rested,
• 59:04
  Speaker 5: and Seattle's bullpen is pretty good. Eighty nine percent of
• 59:07
  Speaker 5: tickets ninety three percent of the cash on the under.
• 59:09
  Speaker 5: The totals eight and a half because we're looking at
• 59:11
  Speaker 5: a Kansas City game where they moved the walls in
• 59:15
  Speaker 5: at Kaufman Stadium. So but yeah, I think under makes
• 59:18
  Speaker 5: sense to me.
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: In that game.
• 59:19
  Speaker 5: The money is also backing Seattle sixty five percent of tickets,
• 59:23
  Speaker 5: eighty percent of the cash on Seattle.
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: Their favored in their favorite for a reason.
• 59:27
  Speaker 5: The oddsmakers are telling you they're the better team and
• 59:30
  Speaker 5: or they have the better starter. I think both, but
• 59:32
  Speaker 5: Lugo does have better matchup numbers here. Minus one thirty
• 59:36
  Speaker 5: is the price on Seattle. I don't know if I
• 59:39
  Speaker 5: love it, man, Although if I was gonna play Kansas City,
• 59:42
  Speaker 5: I would limit it to the first five, though limited
• 59:44
  Speaker 5: to just Lugo being able to battle against wu here
• 59:48
  Speaker 5: because Kansas City does not have a bullpen advantage here.
• 59:51
  Speaker 5: In fact, their bullpen is a disadvantage. So that's how
• 59:54
  Speaker 5: I look at that game. But I think the under
• 59:56
  Speaker 5: makes more sense. They're under first five makes sense too
• 59:58
  Speaker 5: if you want to exclude Kansas City's bullpen, but at
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 5: least they are rested Houston at the Cubs.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: I almost made this a play Cubs.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 5: I don't know what's going on here, man. The Cubs
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 5: have lost seven games in a row. Now they're on
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 5: the version of getting swept by the Houston Astros in Wrigling.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 5: I mean, you gotta be kidding me with that. I
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 5: know the Cubs have some pitching injuries and whatever. Cad
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 5: Horton's injury is a huge injury to their pitching staff there.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 5: But even so, this is kind of ridiculous. You gotta
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 5: think the Cubs are gonna show up here. They're obviously
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 5: the better team, They're favored here for a reason.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: Houston's pitching is still pretty bad.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 5: So this looks like a spot where you get the
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 5: better team, with the Cubs in a better situation where
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 5: they should be able to come in and avoid getting swept.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 5: Here they should be motivated to avoid the sweep. The
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 5: Cubs used two relief pitchers yesterday, Houston used three. Houston
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 5: has the worst bullpen in baseball and it's still I mean,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 5: they are tied now with the Reds for the worst whip,
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 5: but their eray is far and away the worst, bad,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 5: bad bullpen. They're ranked dead last, Cubs are eighth. Cubs
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 5: have a clear bullpen advantage here. Cubs are fifth in offense,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 5: Houston is seventh, So we do have two teams that
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 5: have hit well this season. Of course, Peter Lambert is
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 5: pitching for Houston, but I don't really know that I
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 5: want to fade him, and that's kind of where I
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 5: have some issues with wanting to play the Cubs here.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 5: Lambert started out his career pretty poorly with the Colorado
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 5: and really he hasn't been good at all throughout his career.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 5: But now all of a sudden, he's twenty nine, he's
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 5: on a different team, and he's pitching well. Three point
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 5: five to seventy Ray one point oh wait, whip, he's
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 5: been really good on the road one point seven to
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 5: four Roadie. Ray gave up five runs in his last
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 5: outing against Texas, which isn't good. Texas doesn't hit well,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 5: but he got really unlucky. He only gave up three
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 5: hits and two walks of that outing six strikeouts, so
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 5: like every guy that he put on base pretty much
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 5: literally scored. That's unlikely, And all the rest of his
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 5: starts besides his first start of the season, he had
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 5: allowed three or fewer earned runs.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: So overall he's pitching well.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 5: He's got one strikeout per inning, basically well below one
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 5: hit per inning, and his walk rate is really the
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 5: only concern that I have here slightly high. The other
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 5: concern though, is that he hasn't been good against the Cobs.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 5: He has eleven career at bats against him. They have
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 5: a six thirty six batting average against him nineteen forty
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 5: seven ops three to six strike up walk ratio, So
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 5: that would give me concerns obviously. You know I'm leaning
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 5: to the Cubs here. Still almost put it on my card.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 5: But the thing that gives me hesitation here is that
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 5: these numbers were accumulated at some point in the past.
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 5: He has not faced the Cubs this year, so Lambert's
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 5: numbers against the Cubs, it's a small sample size, and
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 5: I don't think you want to weigh it that heavily
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 5: because that was back when he was pitching for Colorado.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: Whatever.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 5: He's obviously pitching way better right now, so I don't
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 5: really want to fade Lambert here, even though I think
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 5: he is the lesser pitcher. Ema Naga is pitching for
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 5: the Cubs. Showed to Ima Naga, I think you're definitely
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 5: gonna get a good outing out of him here. He's
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 5: got a three point three eighty RA one point zero
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 5: four whip, slightly worse at home, but not really that
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 5: much of a difference three point five to seven home era.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 5: He got lit up in his last start against Milwaukee,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 5: but I told you he has bad career numbers against
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 5: the Brewers, so I didn't like that matchup for him.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 4: For whatever reason.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 5: The Brewers light this guy up, But against basically anybody else,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 5: I think he's pretty much good to go. He's obviously
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 5: been really really good throughout his career. This season he's
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 5: been good as well. He's only allowed more than tour
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 5: in runs in three starts this season, and that was
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 5: the only one where he allowed more than four, the
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 5: one against the Brewers. There he's allowed way below one
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 5: hit per inning, strike got rate above one per inning,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 5: and his walk rates fairly low as well, and Houston
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 5: basically hasn't seen him before. Vazquez and Walker are combined
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 5: zero for six offen with three strikeouts and no walks.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 5: So Ima Naga really good picture with unfamiliarity here. I
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 5: think he's got the edge here. You know, I just
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 5: have a few issues there. I like the Cubs. It
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 5: almost made my car. The money is not agreeing with
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 5: me though. Sixty seven percent of ticket, sixty three percent
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 5: of the cash on the Cubs.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: They have to break this losing street though.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 5: Man in a game where they pretty much have a
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 5: clear starting pitching at here, they obviously have a bullpen edge.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 5: So if you're going with the Cubs full game, I'm
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 5: recommending splitting the bet partially on the run line, partially
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 5: on the money line, because you're laying about a minus
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 5: one seventy something price there. Maybe that price is too
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 5: high though the total seven, so you have to worry
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 5: about that.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 4: It's you know, gonna be a situation where.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 5: The wind is probably blowing in at Wriglu, which is
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 5: why the total is so low. Here. The wind has
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 5: a big impact in Wrigley because it's right near Lake Michigan.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I mean under makes some sense as well
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 5: here eighty four percent of tickets, eighty five percent of
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 5: the cash on the under. I would probably limit that
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 5: to first five though I cannot trust Houston's bullpen at all.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 5: I think you could see a good starting pitching duel
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 5: here though potential, which again is the reason why I
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 5: don't really want to.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 4: Lay a huge price with the Cubs.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 5: Here, you're probably also paying a tax for Emanaga. But
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 5: I don't know, because with the Cubs playing so poorly recently,
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 5: maybe you're actually getting not that heavy of a price
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 5: on them. I don't know, but there's a reason why
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 5: they're favored, you know, as bad as they've been playing.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: I think they are the better team. They have a huge.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 5: Bullpen edge, like I said, but I could see it
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 5: being low scoring in the first five innings. You'll probably
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 5: be looking at a three and a half if you
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 5: did that, though, But I think full game Cubs would
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 5: be the way I would lean in that game. But
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 5: the money's not agreement with me on that. Partially run line,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 5: partially money line. All right, Chicago at San Francisco. Well,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 5: I already talked about the other game of the double
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 5: header for Baltimore. Actually, let me take a break right now.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 5: I'll be right back, and then I'll finish this off
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 5: because five games left, that's usually where I do it.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 5: And then I will have a play in the hockey
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 5: game upcoming, and I will talk about NBA and WNBA,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 5: but I don't have a play in either of those.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 5: I'll be right back, all right, White Sox and San Francisco,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 5: hold on, zoom back in here a little bit. Uh,
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 5: this is a series, that's Uh. The teams will split
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 5: the first two games, I think, Am I right about that?
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 5: San Francisco ended a losing streak yesterday with at ten
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 5: to three win yesterday. So, like I say, a lot
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 5: of times, when the team ends a losing streak, they'll
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 5: have new momentum coming into the.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 4: Next game here.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 5: But I think both teams probably are motivated here. White
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 5: Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday. San Francisco used three.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 5: San Francisco has the better bullpen. They ranked fifteenth, but
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 5: their era is quite good. White Sox not very good
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 5: twenty fifth. White Sox have the way better offense, though
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 5: they're ranked eighth, San Francisco twenty eighth. So we have
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 5: you know, it's sort of pitching versus hitting, if you will, here,
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 5: but I like both starting pitchers here in a way.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 5: But there are some concerns that I have as well.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 5: Noah Schultz is pitching for the White Sox here.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: I think he's.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 5: Pretty good, like he's a young guy with a lot
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 5: of talent, but he struggled a little bit because his
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 5: walk number is way too high. He's got a four
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 5: point nine to three ERA one point three whip that's
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 5: not awful, especially given that he's a twenty two year
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 5: old rookie. His ERA is almost the same home and away,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 5: but his walk number is the main concern here. That's
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 5: been the case throughout this season so far. He's not
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 5: not allowing many hits. Ten fewer hits than innings. Pitch
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate pretty good, almost nine per nine, but his
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 5: walk rate is very high, so that's his concern again,
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 5: you know. I mean he draws Randy Johnson comparisons because
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 5: he's six'. Ten he doesn't exactly throw Like Randy, Johnson
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 5: like he doesn't throw as hard or, whatever but he's
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 5: got a good pitch, mix really really good. Sinker and
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 5: Like Randy, johnson he's starting out his.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 4: Career way too. Wild he's got to get them under.
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 5: Control, man if he lowered his walk, NUMBERS i think
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 5: he would be really really. Good he might pitch well here,
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 5: though because he's going up against a bad offense and
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 5: he's got, talent and this offense has not seen him,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 5: before so he has that. Advantage, Again like these, hitters
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 5: especially when they're not hitting, well having to go up
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 5: against a guy like this they've never seen, before the
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 5: hitters might. Struggle so as long as he doesn't give
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 5: them free, asses you, know he should pitch well.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: Here Robbie ray.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 5: Is pitching for The. Giants he's been not really that.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 5: Good he's been really bad. Recently he started out the season,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 5: well like last, year he pitched well for most of the,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 5: season then he tailed off at the end of the.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: SEASON i don't. Know this, year it looks like his.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 5: Maybe he's trailing, off ear tailing, off whatever you want
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 5: to call.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 4: It earlier in the. SEASON i don't.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 5: Know he's got a four point two EIGHTY ra one
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 5: point three to two whip that's not that. Great he's
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 5: been really good at home, though one point nine to
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 5: One HOMIE ra significantly better at home where it is
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 5: more pitcher.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 4: Friendly but he got.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 5: Annihilated in his last outing At. ARIZONA i Know arizona
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 5: is a team that can. Hit that's a hitter friendly ball.
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 5: Park he didn't pitch well in the start before that,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 5: either against The.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 4: DODGERS i know.
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 5: That's an elite offense that was also on the. Road
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 5: Maybe ray will bounce back now that he's back at.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 5: Home he does pitch better at, home So i'm not
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 5: going to Write ray off. Here but he's obviously in
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 5: the worst form that he's been in all. Season his
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 5: overall numbers not too, bad still below one hit per,
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 5: inning rates a little bit, high too many home runs allowed,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 5: twelve and then his strikeout rate is not, horrible it's
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 5: a little bit below one per. Inning he does have
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 5: good numbers against The White sox and thirty three at
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 5: bats one twenty one batting average allowed four fourteen o
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 5: ps eight to two strike out walk Ratiam so this
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 5: may be a matchup where it's good for. Him it's
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 5: good for him he does get back on track. HERE
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 5: i kind of like the under in this. GAME i,
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 5: KNOW i tried to go under on the first, game
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 5: AND i think we got bullshitted out of that. Under
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 5: to be, honest it looked like it was headed towards
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 5: an easy underwin in that, one and then nine runs
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 5: for The White sox in the fourth inning or whatever it,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 5: was and the thing was totally.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 4: Over.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 5: Literally this game doesn't appeal to me as, much BUT
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 5: i would go under probably IF i was gonna play this,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 5: game maybe first five innings, though because you do have
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 5: to worry about The White sox. BULLPEN a bit total
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 5: for the full game is eight uh sixty percent of
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 5: tickets on the, over fifty one percent of the cash
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 5: on the. Overs the money seems to me sort of
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 5: indicating towards the under here money also indicating on The
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 5: White sox fifty ticket seventy four percent of the cash.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 4: On The on The White, sox it's basically a pick
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 4: up a pick them.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 5: Line it's usually pick the winner price here a toss
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 5: up is WHAT i was. Thinking my mind doesn't work.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 5: Anymore my brain, doesn't uh so do with that information we?
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 5: Want but money is indicating on The White sox and
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 5: the under in that, ONE i could see. IT i, Mean,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 5: ray the way he pitched in his last two outings
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 5: is definitely a, concern SO i could see. That but
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 5: we'll see what happens in that in that. GAME i
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 5: don't want to play it. THOUGH i have too many
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 5: concerns with the. Pitching washington At. Atlanta these seems to
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 5: split as. Well atlanta got shut out yesterday two to not.
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 5: Thing atlanta doesn't hit as well at home for whatever, reason.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: And lanta lost a four game win.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 5: Streak so sometimes when a team loses a wind, streak
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 5: that will hang them over into the next. Game so
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 5: it might not be the greatest spot For atlanta. Here
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 5: the pitching matchup doesn't really look great.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 4: Either this is.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 5: A weird pitching. Matchup it's one of the hardest pitching
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 5: matchups to figure. Out atlanta used two relief pitchers. Yesterday
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 5: they have the way better. Bullpen washington used. Two atlanta
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 5: is number one in bullpen whip and they're one of
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 5: the top like four or five in E ra as.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 5: Well washington twenty fourth in. Bullpen atlanta does have a
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 5: big bullpen. Edge atlanta's number two in, offense although not
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 5: as good at, home And washington's fourth in. Offense, now
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 5: the PITCHING i see this pitching matchup being highly.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: Variant, Here atlanta's.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 5: A big, favorite and probably rightfully so because they are
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 5: the better.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 4: Team Foster griffin is pitching For.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 5: Washington he's having a good, season basically from out of
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 5: nowhere four point TWO. Era not that, great but not,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 5: horrible and it's mostly because his last start skyrocketed. It
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 5: he's got a one point one to eight whip, still
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 5: so that's pretty. Good he's been a little bit worse
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 5: on the. Road four point twenty. Four roady didn't pitch
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 5: well against The mets last time, out but that START
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 5: i don't think was that. BAD i met his start
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 5: before that as the one that really was the. Concern
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 5: but he had five, strikeouts no walks against The. Mets
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 5: so the fact they give up five home, runs he
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 5: did give up eight, hits but still that was a
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 5: little bit, UNLUCKY i. Think and then he did get
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 5: bombed By cincinnati in the previous. Game we lost an
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 5: under in that, game a first five, UNDER i, think
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 5: all thanks To griffin in that one his worst start
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 5: of the. SEASON i don't, know, MAN i, mean he
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 5: isn't pitching as well in his two recent starts, Though
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 5: but the good news is he still had a twelve
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 5: to three strikeout walk ratio over those two, starts so
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 5: his command numbers still look. Good he's still striking guys
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 5: out and not really walking that many, guys so he
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 5: might bounce back. Here good numbers over the course of
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 5: the season almost one strikeout per inning below one hit
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 5: per inning walk, right pretty, low but ten home runs
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 5: allowed is not that. Good as far as his numbers
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 5: against The braves not bad in eighteen bats to twenty
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 5: two batting HOURS ops is a little bit high, though
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 5: seven to sixty THREE. Ops one home run in there
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 5: From Eli white H but he might actually bounce back
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 5: here because his matchup numbers look okay and The braves
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 5: are not as good of an offense at, home So
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 5: griffin might pitch. Well but LIKE i, said it's really
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 5: hard to gauge because he has he's having a good.
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 5: Season his last couple of starts have been kind of,
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 5: bad but not as bad as maybe they. Look matchup
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 5: numbers look, Decent so it's you, know this game is
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 5: difficult to figure, out and it gets even more difficult
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 5: Because Martine perez is pitching for The. Braves his numbers
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 5: are good this year two point eight FIVE r one.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 5: Whip you Know, perez he bounces around the league and
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 5: he goes out there and you know he's basically he's
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 5: More he's usually more effective than. NOT i will say
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 5: he's been really good at home point five to five
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 5: yr at home this. Year some of it has been
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 5: out of the, bullpen, though so he made two relief
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 5: Appearances i'm pretty sure this, month and then he was
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 5: back in the starting rotation last time out and he
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 5: had ten strikeouts Against miami and they won the. Game
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 5: but he did a. Lot he allowed four. Runs but
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 5: it was a little bit, UNLUCKY i would, say because
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 5: he had ten, strikeouts two, walks five hits a lot
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 5: in five. Innings that was not a bad outing from.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 5: Him the strikeout rate is way higher than you usually
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 5: get out of. Him though he's still got below one
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 5: strikeout per. Inning he's allowed way fewer than one hit per, inning,
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 5: though and his walk rate is a little bit, High
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 5: SO i think he's not quite as good as his
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 5: numbers indicate. HERE i mean he's an, aging you, know
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 5: journeyman junk, pitcher LIKE i think he's a guy you
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 5: need an, arm you, know like The braves have a
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 5: lot of starting pitching, Injuries like you need an arm
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 5: at the back end of your. Rotation, here he's a
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 5: guy who can go out there and keep you in the,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 5: game you know WHAT i. Mean that's REALLY i think
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 5: what his role really. Is his numbers Against washington are
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 5: kind of hard to figure. Out he's got sixteen at
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 5: bats against. Him it's a small. Sample five, strikeouts no,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 5: walks two fifty average all that looks pretty. Good nine
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 5: thirds is not. Good wood And abrams both have a
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 5: home run off, Him but it's a small, sample SO
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 5: i don't know how much weight you can really give.
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 4: THAT i really really.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 5: Struggle with this, game, Man LIKE i could see both
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 5: pitchers doing, WELL i could see both pitchers not doing well.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 5: Here the one thing THAT i think is a given
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 5: is That atlanta has the better. Bullpen but other than,
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 5: THAT i don't know what to say about this. Game,
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 5: yeah this is obviously a. Pass the money is Fading
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 5: atlanta here, though eighty two percent of tickets fifty eight
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash On. Atlanta, also when Did perez pitch?
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 5: Last is he on a normal starter's work a normal starters.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 5: Schedule that's the other thing you have to look. At
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 5: he sort of is he pitched on the. Nineteenth usually
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 5: you'll get one other day, off, Right, like he's pitching
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 5: five days, later Unless atlanta had no days, off so
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 5: HE i don't know if they bumped him. Up hold,
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 5: on let me SEE i can figure that. OUT i don't.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 5: Know that seems a little weird to, me, Though, no
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 5: he's on. Schedule they just haven't had any days off
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 5: over that. Span SO i think he is gonna make
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 5: a starter's workload here if he's pitching, well but eighty
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 5: two percent of tickets fifty eight percent of the cash On,
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 5: atlanta they're about a minus one sixty something favorite. HERE
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 5: i think probably the feeling from the professionals is that
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 5: that number is just it's too much of a, Price,
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 5: like Does perez really justify laying a price like. That maybe,
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 5: not With atlanta not being that good of an offense at,
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 5: Home griffin mostly has had a good.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: Season we'll, see.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 5: Though the money is also indicating on the under seventy
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 5: one percent of tickets seventy eight percent of the cash
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 5: on the. UNDER i wouldn't be surprised if the game's lower.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 5: Scoring but WHAT i will say is THAT i would
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 5: go first five on that one BECAUSE i would not
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 5: Want washington's bullpen involved in an. Under SO i would
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 5: go first five under IF i was gonna go. Under
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 5: and it is. Possible it looks like both pitchers may
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 5: be able to do well. Here but, yeah that game
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 5: is very unper predictable to. Me, garrett what's, Up thanks
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 5: for hanging. Out, Yeah caine's won. YESTERDAY i mean THEY
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 5: i would be concerned quite a bit IF i was
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 5: a fan of, them, though because there they play, really
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 5: really poorly in The Eastern conference. Finals, man they're going
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 5: up against a team that has no experience and they're
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 5: struggling big.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 4: Time The.
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 5: Braves, Yeah. BRAVES i don't, know, MAN i don't. Know
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 5: that game is, just, yeah so unpredictable to. ME i
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 5: don't EVEN i have no idea what's gonna happen in that.
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 5: GAME i think if the game is close in the later,
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 5: Innings atlanta probably should get the job done with their bullpen.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 4: Advantage but who.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 5: Knows a's At San. Diego San diego's on the verge
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 5: of a sweep. Pier San diego still has a really good.
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 5: Record they're still right behind The. DODGERS i still DON'T
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 5: i don't THINK i buy, it, Though, man The a's
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 5: might come in with a little extra effort trying.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 4: To avoid the sweep Heer San. Diego who do they play?
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 5: Next Playing? PHILADELPHIA i don't know if that's a look
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 5: at it or. Not maybe Because philadelphia is playing better
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 5: and people kind of expected them to be a playoff
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 5: team again like they usually. Are so Maybe San diego
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 5: does start looking ahead here and doesn't take The a's.
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 5: Seriously BUT i Think San diego does have a matchup edge.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 5: Here possibly maybe, not THOUGH i mean it looks like
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 5: they do because you're looking At you're looking at the starting.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 5: Pitching it's, like oh my, God San diego is a
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 5: really good pitcher against what is this a bullpen game
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 5: for The.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 4: A's, yeah that obviously doesn't look good for The, a's But.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna show you the matchup numbers for cure better
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 5: relievers yesterday, Too So San diego has a very good,
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 5: bullpen but they use all their better, relievers Including. Miller
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 5: they could potentially use them again, though because he had
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 5: n't pitched Since Sues. Day he threw thirteen pitches, yesterday
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 5: so maybe they will use them again here if they need.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 5: To but San diego's bullpen there's still the better. Bullpen
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 5: The a's used three relievers, yesterday BUT i don't like
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 5: That San diego used basically all their best relievers last.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 5: Night San diego's ranking fifth in bullpen right, now they
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 5: are one of the top. Bullpens as are twenty third
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 5: in bullpen as have the way better. Offense they're. Ninth
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 5: San diego's twenty. Ninth San diego just has not come around.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 5: Offensively but The a's are Starting Luis, medina who is
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 5: a relief. PITCHER i don't. KNOW i don't know what
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 5: we're gonna get out of The a's. Here Man, medina
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 5: he's pitched well this, season but he's got no more
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 5: than like two to two and a third two and
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 5: two thirds innings in any. Outing SO i think that's
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 5: what you're gonna get out of him. Here he's gonna
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 5: start the, game.
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 4: Give you a couple of.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 5: Innings he's been good over the, season BUT i don't, know,
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 5: man his numbers very small sample are okay Against San
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 5: diego as, Well so maybe he comes out and gives
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 5: you a couple of good. Innings but then what are
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 5: you gonna get from The a's after? That like you
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 5: have to go back and look at their, Schedule, like
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 5: what are they doing? Here whose turn wasn't in the starting?
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 4: Rotation Hold? On that would have been this.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 5: GAME i guess a fourteen to six Law a win
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 5: that they had Against. Anaheim Hold, on who pitched in this?
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 5: Game that Was Jacob? Lopez are they taking him out
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 5: of the?
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 4: Rotation is he?
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 5: HURT i don't, Know so it would Be lopez's, TURN
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 5: i think in the, rotation but maybe they're putting an
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 5: opener in front of, him So lopez might pitch. HERE
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 5: i don't, know But lopez has really really been. Struggling,
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 5: Man let me look at what his numbers are. Here
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 5: in case he does. Pitch lopez six point one FOUR
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 5: era one point eight whip really. Bad But San diego's
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 5: for eight off him with four. Strikeouts SO i think
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 5: IF i was The, A'S i would Let lopez go
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 5: in this. Game, uh you, know maybe put an opener
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 5: in front of, him but Put lopez out, there give
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 5: you some innings and see what he can do because
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 5: he's got good matchup. Numbers Michael king is pitching For San.
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 5: Diego he's the way more proven. Pitcher he's been really
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 5: good this. Year two point three to ONE era and
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 5: one point oh SIX. Whip he's been really good at
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 5: home one point eight E. Rm he's coming off a
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 5: seven inning shutout of The, dodgers took a win in that.
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 5: One he's pitched well over his last few hour. Outings
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 5: one was against The brewers as. Well he's pitching well
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 5: against some good lineups right now over the course of the,
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 5: season more than one strike up per, inning way below
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 5: one hit per, inning and his walk rate is too.
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 5: High that's usually what you get out of. Him he's basically,
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 5: unhittable but he walks too many. Guys kind of numbers
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 5: against The, a's, though are way worse than you would.
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 5: Expect in twenty four at bats three seventy five average,
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 5: allowed nine eighty six, obs four, strikeoups three. Walks that's not.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 5: Good but one thing you have to consider is did
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 5: he pitch in that horrible a? Stadium like is that
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 5: skewing his? Numbers so you got to go to last
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 5: year did he pitch? There the answer is, yes he
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 5: wasn't that bad in that game. Though he got a
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 5: win in the game and held them to three on
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 5: runs in five to two thirds, innings so you know
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 5: he didn't have a complete blow and that.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 4: Start that's affecting his numbers that.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 5: Much but the reason that's bad is that means that
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 5: his numbers overall against The a's are like legitimately.
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 4: Bad so that's WHAT i don't like here about this setup.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 5: Here this game is hard to figure, out, man Because
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 5: king might pitch well in any given, moment And San
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 5: diego is getting the money fifty tickets ninety five percent
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 5: of the cash on, them they're minus won seventy the
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 5: total seven and a half money is hitting the under
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 5: here as.
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: WELL i don't know what to do with this, game.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 5: MAN i MEAN i might lean to an over here
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 5: because The a's are just an unpredicted like this is totally.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 5: Unpredictable it's basically like a bullpen, game and their bullpen's
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 5: not very, good SO i could see them giving up
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 5: some runs. HERE i know it's a pitcher front the, ballpark.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 5: WHATEVER i Know king could come out there and do.
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 5: WELL i Know lopez could get into this game and do.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 5: Well But king has bad matchup numbers which make this
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 5: particular matchup look maybe worse than you would.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 4: Think and then the bullpen is Used.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 5: San diego, here SO i could see this thing maybe
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 5: getting over this total of seven and a, half even
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 5: though usually low, TOTALS i want to go, under but
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 5: maybe not in that. CASE i don't love the game,
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 5: though and money is indicating on the under eighty percent
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 5: of tickets on the under eighty nine percent of the
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 5: cash on the. Under arizona And. Colorado this is a
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 5: four game. Series arizona has won two out of the first,
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 5: three including. Yesterday they're the better. Team but Does colorado
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 5: have a chance? Here colorado used two relief pitchers, yesterday
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 5: one long relief.
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 4: Man it looks Like.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 5: Arizona used, three Including fot who they have relegated to
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 5: the bullpen because he's been so. Bad as far as the,
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 5: Bullpens arizona is ranked, third but THEIR era is still
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 5: way higher than all these.
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 4: Teams they're in the bottom.
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 5: HALF i think in Bullpen, ERRA i still don't trust their,
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 5: bullpen but they're probably better Than, colorado who is ranked twenty,
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 5: first has a way worse. Whip Although colorado's Bullpend eerray
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 5: is not that much worse Than. Arizona's arizona's starting to hit,
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 5: again the rank. Thirteenth colorado has not been hitting that.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 5: Well they're at twenty, first So arizona has some advantages.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 5: Here they're gonna be going up Against Jose quintana for The,
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 5: rockies who has not been. Great four point eight four
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 5: point oh EIGHTY rra is not too, bad but a
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 5: one point four to one whip that's not. Good he's
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 5: puenting a lot of guys on. Base he's kind of
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 5: nearing the end of his. Career but he's not a hard,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 5: thrower so you don't really have to worry about like
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 5: velocity with him or whatever like you. Need like he's
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 5: a guy that goes out there and tries to fool
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 5: hitters with like breaking. Stuff you, know he's been a
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 5: little bit worse on the. ROAD i think hold on
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 5: only slightly worse on the. Road his home road splits
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 5: are not really that, significant but you'd figure he would
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 5: be potentially worse at home because course field, sucks but
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 5: Also arizona is a difficult stadium to bitch.
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 4: Him he has not faced them this, YEAR i don't.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: Believe over the past.
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 5: Month he's gone at least five innings and three out
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 5: of his four outings and The rocky won his last,
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 5: three so that's not. Bad but he does have an
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 5: eleven to six strike out walk ratio this. Month really
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 5: the bad number there is the strike out rate is
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 5: just really, low, like the walk rate is not, high
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 5: and he hasn't allowed that many hits, really so he's
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 5: actually not pitching that. Poorly here right, now he's allowed
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 5: three or four earned runs and all those, outings so
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 5: he is actually pitching.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 4: Well but he'll look over the course of the.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 5: Season just a really low strikeout rate is, concerning and
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 5: given that the walk rate doesn't look, good, like the
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio is really bad because the strike out
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 5: rate is so, low the walk rate is a bit,
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 5: high and he's allowed about one hit per. Inning he's
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 5: got to get those walks down still and THEN i
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 5: might have more confidence in. Him he's got good numbers
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 5: Against arizona though in seventy five career at bats one
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 5: seventy three, average five point thirty two ops fourteen to
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 5: five strike out walk, ratio so he might actually match
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 5: up well. Here he is in decent form right now
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 5: other than not being able to strike anybody, out and
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 5: he has a decent matchup for. Himself it looks like
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 5: he's going up Against Ryan, nelson WHO i always make
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 5: fun of on this, show although his whip is actually
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 5: not bad one point one to, nine although HIS era
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 5: five point one nine is not, good but his whip
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 5: indicates it should be lower than. That nelson has been
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 5: really bad at, home though way worse at home seven
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 5: point six to one Homye, ira so you probably want
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 5: to fade him at home more often than.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 4: Not but he's pitching pretty well this.
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 5: Month he's given up three or fewer earned runs and
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 5: all of his starts this month with a twenty two
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 5: to five strikeout walk, raation well below one hit per,
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 5: inning so he is pitching. Well even Though arizona lost
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 5: three out of those four, Games nelson is actually in
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 5: decent form right. Now numbers Against colorado are not good.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 5: Though they only have five hitters to have faced him
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 5: an eighteen at, bats so they do have a three
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 5: eighty nine average against him one thousand and sixty seven oh,
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 5: ps three, strikeouts no. Walks given the you Know, NELSON
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 5: i don't think he's that. Great he doesn't have good
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 5: matchup numbers, Here he's bad at. HOME i might Towards colorado.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 5: Here arizona minus one ninety pretty high price, here eighty
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 5: percent of, ticket seventy three percent of the cash On
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 5: arizona total's pretty high at nine with money coming in.
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 4: All towards the over as. Well, HERE i could see
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 4: the argument for the.
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 5: OVER i, mean these pictures are pretty untrustworthy, here and
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 5: the bullpens aren't really trustworthy, either SO i wouldn't really
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 5: disagree with the.
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 4: Over BUT i.
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 5: Think Maybe colorado split bet run line money line could
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 5: be an option here BECAUSE i Think King thama actually
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 5: has a matchup advantage. Here believe it or. Not maybe
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 5: that would be my opinion. There but that game is
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 5: definitely not close to wanted to do. IT i don't
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 5: want to do Any i'm not close.
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 4: To wanting to do anything with. It and then we
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 4: have The peacock night.
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 5: GAME i already talked about the second game of The
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 5: Detroit baltimore, doubleheader very. Unpredictable texas At anaheim is the last.
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 5: Game it is the night. GAME i don't know Why
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 5: peacock has given us this game that is like torture.
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 5: Man anaheim's been playing some bad, baseball but they also
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 5: might get a sweep.
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 4: Here you gotta Think texas is gonna show, up.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 5: Man texas is the better team trying to avoid getting
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 5: swept by an inferior team. Here texas is the favorite or,
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 5: No texas is an underdog, here so getting WHAT i
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 5: think is the better.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 4: Team texas is an underdog.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 5: HERE i don't, know like the setup has me kind
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 5: of looking Towards texas for that.
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 4: REASON i don't love the match up here.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 5: Though But texas has the better bullpen that's not even in,
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 5: question and they only use two relief pitchers. Yesterday anaheim
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 5: used five And texas is one of the best bullpens in,
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 5: baseball the rank, seventh but they have a top three
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 5: or so bullpen.
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 4: ERAY i Think anaheim is twenty.
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 5: Eighth very bad, bullpen second worst bullpen era as, well
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 5: both offenses have been struggling as. Well texas has actually
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 5: moved up a little bit to Sixteenth anaheim. Nineteen The
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 5: texas does hit better on the. Road this is a
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 5: more hit or friendly ballpark In. Texas's texas is going
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 5: With Mackenzie. Gore he's been. Okay four point seven to EIGHTY,
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 5: ra one point three to three. Whip it looks like
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 5: he had like a latch strain or. Something he exited
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 5: his game in course field really. Early he pitched one,
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 5: inning didn't do well in that, outing and he had
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 5: done really well in his previous outing Against, arizona but
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 5: he had an, injury so they took him. Out but
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 5: he is pitching on schedule. Now it looks like, SO
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 5: i guess the injury is not really an. Issue he
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 5: is going to pitch here. Today over the course of the.
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 4: Season high strike out, rate low hit rate in a
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: high walk.
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 5: Rate that's usually what you get from. Him well below
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 5: one hit per. Inning he's pretty tough to. Hit his
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 5: strike out rates usually, high well over one hit per.
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 5: Inning but the walk, rate he's got to find a
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 5: way to get that under. Control man, literally and this
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 5: month has been kind of the. Same hit rate is,
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 5: fine strike gout rate is actually down this, Month Thos,
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 5: well that's a little bit of a. Concern and then
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 5: the walk rate is pretty. Bad thirteen to nine strike
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 5: out walk ratio is not. Good man his numbers Against
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 5: anaheimer all over the. Place in twenty one at. Bats
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 5: he's held him to a one to ninety, average but
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 5: an eight ninety four, ops seven, strikeouts six, walks and
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 5: two home runs against him From frasier And. Solaire so
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 5: even though he's held him to a low, like he's
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 5: held him to very few, hits but it's like when
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 5: they do hit, him they hit him hard and they
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 5: draw a lot of walks off. Him SO i don't,
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 5: KNOW i DON'T i don't love his matchup. Stats, really
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 5: he's going up Against Reed Debt, meers who actually has
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 5: been fairly, good even though his five point oh SEVEN
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 5: era doesn't look.
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 4: Good one point two nine whip is a little bit,
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 4: high but not.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 5: Horrible denvers has been really bad at home, though six
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 5: point two to One Homi, ray SO i don't know
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 5: if we could really trust him at. Home he got
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 5: lit up in his last home start against The, a's
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 5: but that is The. A's texas does not have as
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 5: good of an offense as The a's, do and he's
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 5: still had eight strikeouts and two walks in that.
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 4: Out he, see he got, unlucky.
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 5: Like basically everybody that reached base scored against, Him SO
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 5: i don't actually think he was that bad in that.
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 5: Outing and if you look at his overall numbers this,
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 5: season even this, month he hasn't been that bad except
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 5: the walk rate is, high, well the strike cut rate is,
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 5: good the hit rate is actually too high as. Well so,
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 5: yeah this month he has fallen off a little bit,
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 5: here but his season numbers look pretty good to. Me
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 5: below one hit per, inning fairly low walk, rate and
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 5: a high strike cut. RATE i actually think Dett mes
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 5: is not that bad, generally though he's not in the
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 5: greatest of form right. Now but he also has good
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 5: numbers Against, texas like dominant numbers and a pretty big
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 5: sample size of fifty one at bats one eighteen average, allowed,
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 5: three forty three oh, ps twenty three to three strike
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 5: gout walk. RATIO i don't really want to fade. That
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 5: so even though the money's coming Out, TEXAS i Think
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 5: texas is the better team. Generally they're an underdog here
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 5: and they're trying to avoid a. Sweep they got sixty
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 5: percent of ticket seventy seven percent of the cash on. Them,
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 5: anaheim by the, WAY i think it's one of maybe two.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 5: TEAMS i think it's just them In detroit who don't play,
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 5: Tomorrow so that means we don't get To detroit coming
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 5: off a doublehead or ALTHOUGH i think we do get
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 5: to Fade baltimore potentially off of a doublehead or, tomorrow
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 5: but they're Playing, TAMPA i, think SO i don't. KNOW
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 5: i don't know if we want to Fade baltimore Against
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 5: tampa just because they might get up for that.
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 4: Game but we'll talk about it. Tomorrow But anaheim will be.
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 5: Off, tomorrow but they're PLAYING i believe that means they're
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 5: Playing detroit after, That SO i don't know if that's
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 5: really a look ahead or. Anything anaheim is about minus
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 5: one twenty, here But detvers does look like he has
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 5: the better of the pitching matchup Here. Texas if you're
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 5: gonna Go texas, here you gotta go full. Game they
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 5: have a big bullpen advantage. Here if you're gonna Go,
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 5: ANAHEIM i would make it first.
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 4: Five.
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 5: Only that's WHAT i have to say about this game.
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 5: Here Maybe anaheim does have a little bit of an
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 5: edge early in the. Game if it's, close the edge
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 5: does swing Towards texas because their bullpen is way.
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 4: Better so those are my thoughts on.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 5: That let's finish this, Off, Mail let's go to the
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 5: rest of the sports, HERE, WNBA i don't have anything.
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 5: Here we have a couple of afternoon. Games phoenix Edit
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 5: atlanta is a decent. Matchup these two teams are both pretty.
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 5: DECENT i don't have much on the game. Though atlanta's
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 5: staying at. Home they played two days. Ago they Beat
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 5: dallas pretty easily in a game WHERE i actually Thought
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 5: dallas set up a little bit better because it was
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 5: kind of a revenge spot quick road. Revenge dallas did
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 5: not get the job. Done atlanta does Play minnesota. NEXT
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 5: i don't know if that's any sort of look ahead or,
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 5: not With minnesota being one of the better, players one
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 5: of the better teams in the, league but they're also
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 5: missing their best, Player. Collier phoenix is coming off two
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 5: straight losses and they're coming off kind of an ugly
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 5: loss as a home favor To la who's a decent. Team,
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 5: THOUGH i, mean we saw they were able to get
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 5: it done last night FOR. Us phoenix lost To toronto
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 5: at home the game before. That, though like losing two
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 5: games at home pretty, badly it might be a good
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 5: thing For phoenix to just go out on the road.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 5: HERE i know they're having to travel To atlanta for.
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 5: THIS i know they have the liberty in the next two,
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 5: games and that could be a look ahead because they're
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 5: a good. Team but when you're playing this, BADLY i
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 5: think it's a good thing to go out on the
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 5: road focus on. BASKETBALL i Like phoenix in this. Game
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 5: that would be my. Lean they have one extra day
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 5: off as, well but they do have to travel across
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 5: a bunch of time. Zones money seems to agree with
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 5: me on. This other're a five and a half point underdog,
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 5: here maybe six eighty two percent of tickets eighty eight
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash coming in On. PHOENIX i would
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 5: lean towards taking the points With, phoenix even though they're
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 5: going up against elite Rebounder Angel reese On, atlanta who
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 5: HAS i don't, know she's setting some like rebounding, records
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 5: But i'm, like, yeah but that's because she misses so many.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 5: Shots she gets her own. Rebounds it's like almost. UNFAIR
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 5: i don't. Know dallas At New york is ON nbc
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 5: And peacock that is THE tv game FOR wnba in the.
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 5: Afternoon New york is definitely the better team, here But dallas,
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 5: is you, know an up and coming team with a
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 5: lot of young, players some of whom are in relationships
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 5: with each other the past two number one draft. Picks
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 5: The liberty are coming. Up kind of an ugly loss
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 5: To Golden. STATE i THINK i leaned To Golden state
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 5: in that game because The liberty were returning off from
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 5: a road, trip so keep that in.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 4: Mind that was a bad spot for The.
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 5: LIBERTY a lot of times when a team returns, home
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 5: they get, distracted gotta get back to home, life and
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 5: then they bounce back well in the next. Game SO
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 5: i think The liberty might show up and play better.
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 5: Here my concern would be The liberty really have had
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 5: a soft schedule so. Far Connecticut. Washington they had to
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 5: go to overtime to beat and then they lost one
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 5: game To portland and then dominated them in the next.
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 5: Game portland and expansion. Team but that was a little
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 5: bit of a tricky, spot having to go all the
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 5: way out to The West, coast to a new, venue
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 5: SO i might give them a pass for. THAT i
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 5: still think The liberty are one of the better teams
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 5: in the, league but they have not done anything to
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 5: bolster their resume so. Far they're not battle, tested BUT
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 5: i do lean towards them to bounce back in this.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 5: Game dallas is coming off that game Against atlanta, though
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 5: where they did not play that. Well they probably show up.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 5: Here dallas has had a more difficult. Schedule they Beat
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 5: indiana on the, road that was a tough win for,
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 5: them Played atlanta twice so they lost both. Games not
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 5: an easy team to, play and they had a close
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 5: game Against minnesota as, Well So dallas is more battle
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 5: tested right, now so that would worry me a little bit.
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 5: HERE i would lean towards laying it with The, liberty
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 5: but the money's disagreeing with me on. That they're seven
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 5: and a half point, favorite so their favorite for a.
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 5: Reason but seventy percent of tickets eighty eight percent of
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 5: the cash On. Dallas the money is indicated Towards, Dallas
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 5: but you, know not a strong opinion for. ME i
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 5: THINK i would Prefer phoenix out of those two. GAMES
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 5: i Think phoenix is a stronger opinion for me the
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 5: money who tends to back that? Up and then we
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 5: have an ugly game Between washington And. Seattle seattle is
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 5: so bad this year That washington is favored on the
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 5: road against. Them, Man seattle got to win in their last.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 5: Game they bounce back after A we got a win
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 5: against them in the first game With, connecticut AND i
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 5: actually Thought connecticut was the best team and thought they
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 5: might win again go into the second, game But seattle
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 5: was able to zigzag get the win. There they're staying
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 5: at home. Here ending a losing streak is. Good you
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 5: know that that will give you some new. Momentum BUT
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 5: i don't, Know, Man washington is having to come in From.
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 5: Dallas they got blown out At. Dallas they're in a
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 5: bad spot in that game Because washington Upset indiana the
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 5: game before. That that was a big win for. Them
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 5: so then going down To, DALLAS i think they had
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 5: a letdown spot. There they played a really big game
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 5: Against New york took them into overtime the game before that,
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 5: too so they could have been maybe in like a double.
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 5: Letdown maybe they do bounce back. Here it might be
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 5: good for them to just travel a little.
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 4: Bit they are.
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 5: Changing time zones here, though And seattle's got some new.
• 1:39:44
  Speaker 5: Momentum SO i don't want to play the. Game but
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 5: the money is indicating On washington sixty four percent of,
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 5: tickets eighty percent of the cash on, them they're a
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 5: four and a half point. Favorite, NOW i MEAN i
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 5: might lean towards laying, that but really that price seems
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 5: dang injurious to. Me, Man This washington team is not that,
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 5: good and laying a price on the road really against
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 5: anybody seems a little bit crazy to, me even Though
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 5: seattle is clearly just based on what the oddsmakers are,
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 5: Doing seattle's way down this year from where they were last.
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 5: Year so do with that information what you. Want But
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 5: i'm SKIPPING wnba. Today HOCKEY Espn Western Conference, Finals vegas
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 5: leads two to H coming back To, VEGAS i will
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 5: have a play on this. Game part of me Wants
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 5: vegas to, win just so That i'm right in my.
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 5: Bracket sorry to Dirty, sock But colorado also they have
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 5: The President's trophy curse.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 4: To deal with, here AS i keep pointing.
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 5: OUT i don't THINK i pointed it out for a while,
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 5: though but the team that has won The President's. Trophy
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 5: the best record in hockey has not won The Stanley
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 5: cup for a long fucking, time LIKE i think it's
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 5: been since twenty. Thirteen that's not to say that it's
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 5: out of the question here In colorado's the best team
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 5: in the league and the best team left, obviously but
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 5: they're struggling in the series a. Bit you might, think,
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 5: well If colorado loses two games at, home they're not
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 5: gonna win At, vegas, Right, Like vegas is definitely better
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 5: at home than they are on the, road but this
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 5: is kind of a short trip for.
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 4: Them i'm going With colorado, here.
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 5: MAN i think when you have a team that loses
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 5: both games at, home it sometimes it's a good thing for.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 5: Them just go out on the, road and you know
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 5: you're gonna get a super motivated team that is the better,
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 5: team and you're getting a bit of a better price on.
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 5: This it's minus one forty something on the money. LINE
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 5: i would still probably money line it even at about
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 5: minus one fifty BECAUSE i don't really want to deal
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 5: with a puck line in, hockey you, know in a
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 5: low scoring. SPORT i Know i've done it a few,
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 5: times but on the road like, THIS i don't THINK
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 5: i want to do, it but money line is gonna
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 5: be my recommendation here On. Colorado they're the better teams.
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 5: STILL i think down two coming going out on the
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 5: road would. Here if they lose this, game they're gonna
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 5: lose the. Series, Man so they got to get this.
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 5: WIN i think you're the motivation is gonna be. There,
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 5: Yes vegas is better at home than on the. Road
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 5: that has been the. Case vegas does have a lot
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 5: of experience in this. ROSTER i know, that and they
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 5: have A Stanley cup winning, Coach i'm pretty, sure but
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 5: their coach hasn't been there for that. Long they brought
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 5: him in with seven games left of the regular. Season
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 5: But vegas is playing really. Well they have a hot
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 5: goaltender right. Now Carter harsh has been the best goalie
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 5: in the playoffs so far, probably so they are riding
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 5: that right. Now BUT i Think colorado is going to
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 5: get the win. Here if you look at what happened
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 5: in these first two. GAMES i Know vegas won both.
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 5: Games colorado did kind of outplay, them Though vegas did
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 5: out face off them in the first game and had more.
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 5: Hits SO i had some hesitations going into the second,
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 5: game But colorado did outshoot. Them some of that was
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 5: Because colorado was out to a big deficit, early they
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 5: were down, Three so that worried me a little bit,
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 5: too because usually WHEN i see that a team won
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 5: the shot battle in a close, GAME i think it
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 5: was a little bit misleading and the team that outshot
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 5: the other team probably should.
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 4: Have won the.
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 5: Game maybe not in game one, here because you, Know
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 5: colorado was like firing desperation shots down three to. Zero
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 5: but if you look at game, Two colorado Outplayed vegas
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 5: more so in this game in a.
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 4: Way they had more shots in the.
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 5: Game, again they did get out hit a little, bit
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 5: but they won almost sixty percent of the face offs
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 5: fifty eight point six, percent so they had more possession
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 5: in the. Game so there are more indicators in this
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 5: game to me that they were the better team in this.
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 5: Game but they did lose three to, one but there
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 5: was an empty net goal at the end of the.
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 5: Game colorado was leading the game basically for two entire,
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 5: periods or well for one and a. Half they scored
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 5: near the end of the first, period and then they
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 5: were leading for the entire way all the way into
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 5: the third. Period When vegas wound up scoring three goals
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 5: in the third, period including an empty. Netter But colorado
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 5: led most of this game, here, man, So colorado's goaltending
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 5: was good in the. Game their deepfense was, there you.
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 5: Know they just their goaltending or deepfense and or maybe
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 5: both just weren't there when it really. Mattered but the
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 5: empty net goal made it look a little bit worse
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 5: than it actually.
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 4: Was it was a close.
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 5: Game, COLORADO i think was the better team in this,
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 5: game SO i think they will win this. Game turning
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 5: around to get the win, HERE i know, AGAIN i
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 5: do Have vegas winning the series in my. Bracket we'll
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 5: see if that winds up happening or. Not i'm still not,
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 5: convinced even though they're up two to. OH i, mean
• 1:44:34
  Speaker 5: they're off to a good start, here BUT i think
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 5: they will lose this. GAME i Think colorado gets gets one.
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 5: Here Maybe vegas does bounce back and take it takes
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 5: a three to one lead after, this BUT i Like
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 5: colorado in this. One looking at the market, here the
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 5: money seems to, agree Although.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 4: Colorado looks a little bit.
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 5: Public eighty four percent of the, tickets eighty nine percent
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 5: of the cash on, them they're right and around that
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 5: minus won forty something price. RANGE i think you can
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 5: get them. There the totals around six money coming in
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 5: towards the under. Here you, KNOW i don't know IF
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 5: i necessarily agree with. THAT a lot of times when
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 5: you have these teams that start playing a, series the
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 5: defenses start getting a little bit. Tired BUT i don't
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 5: know the fact that they're changing venues, here maybe the
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 5: offense has to get their legs against. DON'T i do
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 5: not have a good feel for the total, here BUT
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 5: i Like colorado money line in this. One, basically either,
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 5: way if you get a team down, two typically you
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 5: do want to play them in the in game three
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 5: because it's almost like the whole series is on the.
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 5: Line even THOUGH i know in THE nhl four teams
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 5: have overcome AN o three deficit, before but it's still
• 1:45:41
  Speaker 5: if you go down, three, oh you're highly unlikely to
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 5: be able to overcome that still, obviously so the, game,
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 5: yeah you're gonna get a bigger effort out Of colorado
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 5: in my. Opinion and then we do Have game four
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 5: in OK C San Antonio okase with a two to
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 5: one LEAD nbc And peacock EIGHT pm In San antonio.
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 5: Interest it's, interesting, MAN i still Think Oklahoma city is
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 5: the better. Team everybody points out that San antonio won
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 5: four out of the five regular season.
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 4: Meetings one of the games that you just.
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 5: Throw out entirely, though BECAUSE i think Okay see didn't
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 5: play any of their starters The cup. GAME i think
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 5: Okay see may not have wanted it as much as
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 5: San antonio. Did we're, seeing you, know a little bit
• 1:46:25
  Speaker 5: more of an even playing field in this. Series after
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 5: San antonio Won game one and looked like a huge
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 5: matchup problem For Oklahoma, City Oklahoma city made some, adjustments,
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 5: man which is what they should. Do LIKE i have been,
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 5: saying they should have known this already That holmgren cannot
• 1:46:40
  Speaker 5: be matched up with Wem. Benyama he's getting he gets
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 5: dominated by Wen. Benyama Oklahoma city needs to put heart
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 5: And stein on, him, Man that's what they gotta, do
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 5: and they have been doing. That heart And stein really
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 5: going on. Deepfense that's why he's out. There he had
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 5: a really good.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 4: Offensive game. Two took a bit of a step back.
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 5: THERE i don't really talk about that, much but you
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 5: can zigzag props in THE nba, playoffs by the, Way
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 5: like what you want to do is find a player
• 1:47:05
  Speaker 5: that came from out of nowhere and had a huge
• 1:47:08
  Speaker 5: offensive game and then fade his points in the next.
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 4: Game you know WHAT i.
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 5: MEAN i don't think you really ever want to fade
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 5: like the best, players even though you're probably not getting
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 5: that much value in playing on, them LIKE sga, Whatever
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 5: LIKE i wouldn't really want to fade his point, total
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 5: BUT i, don't you, KNOW i don't think i'd want
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 5: to play on him necessarily, either because you're not really
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 5: getting any value that.
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 4: Way but the other way is you could look for
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 4: a really good.
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 5: Player that had a really bad game and then maybe
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 5: play like their over points or something like that in
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 5: the next.
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 4: Game so those are ways to look at.
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 5: PROPS i don't really talk about props that, much but
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 5: figured MAYBE i would do it here. Anyway San antonio
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 5: Lost game, three but there were some reasons why they
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 5: had a lineup shift Because Dylan harper had been, hurt
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 5: so he shifted to a bench. Role he did play seventeen,
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 5: minutes but he came off the. Bench Daron fox came
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 5: back and he is one Of San antonio's best, players but,
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 5: dude San. Antonio one worry that they do have is
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 5: that they don't really have a ball, distributor Like fox
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 5: is more of a. Score they don't really have like
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 5: an actual point. Guard castle really isn't it, Either so
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 5: that's kind of a concern for. Them but, ANYWAY i
• 1:48:18
  Speaker 5: Think fox rejoining the lineup was a chemistry. Issue even
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 5: THOUGH i know they got out to a fifteen to
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 5: nothing lead in the, game San antonio DID i know.
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 5: That but by the end of the first, quarter okay
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 5: see was right back in the game and then they
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 5: were winning a half Time so okay see completely flip the.
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 5: Script BUT i Think fox rejoining the lineup was kind
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 5: of a chemistry. Issu SO i think now that he
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 5: has a game under his, belt San antonio may bounce
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 5: back and play better. HERE i, mean San antonio should
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 5: be the more motivated team, here because if they go
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 5: down three to one and have two games left have
• 1:48:50
  Speaker 5: to play At Oklahoma, city the series is. Done like
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 5: San antonio is not going to be able to win
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 5: that series if that. Happens, like, yeah so they gotta
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 5: win this, game.
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 4: So they're gonna be the more motivated team.
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 5: Here the biggest outlier in this last game was Okay
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 5: c's three point. Percentage everything else was pretty, similar very similar,
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 5: shooting a similar amount of, possessions similar trips to the
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 5: free throw, line similar free throw. Shooting Okay see did
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 5: have a rebound, edge so they've turned that around after
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 5: they got dominated By.
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 4: Wemby in that first.
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 5: Game on the, boards Okay see has kind of figured
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 5: something out. There but Okay see shot forty five percent
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 5: from the from the three point, line so that's the
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 5: biggest outlier THAT i see in this, game even though
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 5: they only had four more three point makes in the,
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 5: game but that was still a twelve point edge from
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 5: behind the. Arc they won by, fifteen SO i think
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 5: that could be a bit of an outlier, There so
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 5: maybe that regresses a little bit. Here that's the one
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 5: regression point THAT i, See SO i do lean to
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 5: San antonio. HERE i don't THINK i quite want to do, it,
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 5: Though and the game went over the total in that last,
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 5: game so if you zig zag, it you know you'd
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 5: want to look towards an under. Here BUT i don't
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 5: know about. THAT i think the total has gone up.
• 1:50:04
  Speaker 5: SLIGHTLY i believe it was around two eighteen in the last.
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 5: Game Maybe i'm wrong about. That maybe it was two
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 5: nineteen let me, say because it's around two nineteen and
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 5: a half right, Now, yeah it was two nineteen and a,
• 1:50:14
  Speaker 5: half so the totals actually around the. SAME i could
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 5: see this being more of an under game, Here LIKE
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 5: i think San antonio probably wants more of an under.
• 1:50:23
  Speaker 5: Game both teams like to play, deepfense BUT i think
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 5: San antonio.
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 4: Wants to muddy it up a little bit.
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 5: More Uh, so if you like San, ANTONIO i kind
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 5: of think the under makes more. Sense but we have
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 5: money coming in on the over fifty four percent of,
• 1:50:35
  Speaker 5: tickets sixty nine percent of the cash on the. Over
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 5: my problem with an under would be like when you
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 5: get into these games in the series in the middle
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 5: of the, series teams that are on short rest and,
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 5: whatever that affects the deep fenses. Negatively SO i don't
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 5: love the. UNDER i leave San antonio they're laying two
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 5: and a. Half you could go money line LIKE i
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 5: did last night With. CLEVELAND i know it didn't work,
• 1:50:55
  Speaker 5: out But cleveland the Free i've misspoke.
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 4: At the beginning of the.
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 5: Show the free throws were the big outlier in that.
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 5: Game you, KNOW i think we should have had a
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 5: better chance to win that game With.
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 4: Cleveland but you could play a.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 5: Money line here with us San antonio if the price
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 5: is around minus one thirty or. So otherwise the minus
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 5: two and a HALF i think makes. SENSE i think
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 5: if they're gonna if they, win they're probably covering as,
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 5: well most.
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 4: Likely so that's HOW i look at.
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 5: It, okay, see looks like they get they're getting slightly
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 5: they're getting some of the money, here slightly fifty per,
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 5: tickets fifty two percent of the cash on. THEM i
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 5: Leave San antonio, Though LIKE i, SAID i, mean you're
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 5: paying a little bit of a price for, It like
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 5: there's a, reason like they're favored maybe a little bit
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 5: too heavily here because the oddsmakers, know like this is
• 1:51:41
  Speaker 5: the more desperate team, here but obviously they're gonna be the.
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 5: TEAM i think you have a motivational edge when it's
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 5: the playoffs because both teams are, Motivated LIKE i, know
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 5: it means the pressure is on that. Team maybe that'll
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 5: get to them because obviously the one Advantage Oklahoma city
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 5: really has in the series is. Experience they've been here
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 5: and done the. Before San antonio is young and has
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 5: not done this, before so that might wind up being
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 5: the difference in the, series and maybe it is a
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 5: concern in this game as. Well but, yeah my lead
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 5: is San, antonio but not a play from me that's
• 1:52:12
  Speaker 5: gonna do. It my only plays today are the under
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 5: seven In Rays, yankees which might get rained, OUT i don't.
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 5: Know and then we were on The avalanche money line
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 5: in the hockey. Game that's gonna do. It i'm being
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 5: very selective here. TODAY i had a lot more plays.
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 5: YESTERDAY i liked a lot more on the board. Yesterday
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 5: so we're on a good run. Again yesterday went, well
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 5: four and one, yesterday so this run has been. Hot
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 5: let's keep it. Going learn a tone On twitter if
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 5: you want to support me that. Way that helps you
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 5: get into a group chat with. Me although it's not that.
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 5: Active jeffrey our friend who doesn't watch this show anymore,
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 5: usually but he's in that. Chat he's the most active
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 5: member of that. Chat shout out To. Jeffrey come back, sometime.
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 5: Man i'm On. Instagram learn it to you can check that.
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 5: Out learn it tone on link. Tree all my links are,
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 5: there like subscribe to this channel and then you'll get
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 5: the notifications WHEN i go live and, whatever so you
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 5: can check that out as, well.
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 4: Or so that you get.
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 5: NOTIFIED i mean WHEN i do go, live obviously you're
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 5: checking it out if you're here on this channel and
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 5: not On, twitter but, yes like, subscribe tell people about the.
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 5: YouTube we're on audio as, Well, Apple, Spotify. Spreaker listening
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 5: there helps me, out although it's monetized so there are.
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 5: Ads reviewing helps me out as. Well covered IN uk
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 5: is my yuke channel on YouTube Yuke. Covers you can
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 5: check that Out patreon dot, com slash learned To tote
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 5: if you want to throw me some support that way
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 5: and you get some yuke.
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 4: BONUSES i need to do, MORE i, know but there's A.
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 5: Yuke, feed A spotify feed, there and you get requests
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 5: at the higher level WHICH i am slow to get.
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 4: TO i.
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 5: Apologize i've done some. Already and Then loser casts Every tuesday.
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 5: Night you can check that, out and the G Spot giants,
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 5: podcast which we'll be back at some. Point, Man we've
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 5: only done one episode so of our draft. Preview i'm
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 5: pretty sure that's on YouTube Because CHARLES i think.
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 4: Asked about it.
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 5: Yesterday the link is in my link tree, though which
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 5: you can find on My twitter as. Well that's gonna do.
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 5: It Happy sunday, everybody long. Weekend hopefully people are even,
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 5: celebrating you, know celebrate to other veterans in your, life you,
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 5: know because even Though i'm anti, WAR i think the
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 5: state brainwashes people into going to war for them and.
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 4: Whatever, man and then.
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 5: When they come, back if they, survive you, know they
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 5: have to go through that traumatic experience and then they
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 5: get home and then they don't get treated well by
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 5: like THE va and stuff.
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 4: Either so that's some real, bullshit.
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 5: MAN i know that's more of A veterans date, thing
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 5: but it's related To Memorial. Day so you, KNOW i
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 5: think the veterans need a better, support especially.
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 4: Social.
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 5: SUPPORT i don't know what's the Word i'm looking, For
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 5: like they need, community you know WHAT i. Mean WHICH
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 5: i think again the people in power are trying to
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 5: remove that from everybody and trying to take that.
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 4: Away so that's WHAT i gotta say about.
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 5: That even though the person closest to me who was
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 5: a military veteran would be my grandfather on my dad's,
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 5: side so who was no longer with, us none of
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 5: my grandparents. Are but he was a, mechanic so he
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 5: was not in really you, know in live, action but
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 5: he was a. Mechanic that's gonna do it During. Korea
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 5: i'll be back up. Tomorrow we'll have A monday. Board
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 5: there is a big baseball. Board even though it's a
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 5: little bit, smaller it's big for A monday. Board it's
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 5: a lot bigger than last. Week so we'll have to do,
• 1:55:33
  Speaker 5: that and we'll have W nba probably in playoffs to
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 5: look at as.
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 4: Well don't know what it's gonna look. LIKE i never
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 4: know UNTIL i.
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 5: LOOK i start looking in the, Morning like it's like
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 5: every DAY i wake up And i'm, like what are
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 5: the plays.
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 4: Gonna look like? TODAY i have no.
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 5: Idea with the playoff, GAMES i kind of, know LIKE
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 5: i already kind of have an idea of What i'm
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 5: gonna do there because we already know what the setup
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 5: is like, BASEBALL i have no fucking clue UNTIL i
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 5: wake up AND i look at. It so MAYBE i
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 5: shouldn't be doing it that, way but it's working. Out
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 5: that's gonna do. It happy memorial to everybody, tomorrow have the,
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 5: cookouts do whatever. Beers even Though i'm sober, now as
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 5: you can see here at my athletic brewing hat, Here i'm.
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 5: Rambling that's gonna do. It camera's out of. Focus that
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 5: MEANS i gotta go.
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 2: Peace but don't you go. Quiet don't you play from the.
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 1: Flow your name still means something to somebody for.
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 2: Show put the glass, down, baby look at. Me no.
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 3: Hold, on hold on, nothing no.
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 2: Hold, on hold. On let me for.
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 3: That bites, hot but don't get the.
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 1: Crown hold, on hold
• 1:57:06
  Speaker 2: On stay with me, now