Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Divisional Round Weekend with Scooch

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Divisional Round Weekend with Scooch · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Action Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer the Action Network.
0:21
Speaker 1: I'm going to bring him right in, folks. I got
0:23
Speaker 1: a lot to say it, but I'm going to bring
0:25
Speaker 1: him in right now. Joining me on the podcast Bob
0:30
Speaker 1: Scucci from New Orleans, representing all the board gaming books
0:35
Speaker 1: in the state of Nevada. Hello, Bob, Chad, what's going
0:55
Speaker 1: on listen? There's a lot going on. M First of all,
1:01
Speaker 1: I want to remind everybody download the Action Network app.
1:04
Speaker 1: That's where I'm getting all the information I'm using. You
1:07
Speaker 1: get the best scores, you get the best data as
1:11
Speaker 1: it relates to sports betting. You get updated real time
1:14
Speaker 1: odds from your favorite sports books. It is fantastic. Also,
1:20
Speaker 1: one to remind everybody, Darren and Simon Hunter aren't going
1:23
Speaker 1: to be on the show this week. Obviously we're done
1:24
Speaker 1: with the Super Contest finishing a game and a half
1:27
Speaker 1: out very upsetting, but uh, Darren is doing another Fade
1:32
Speaker 1: Revel promotion with Points Bet. Uh. Last week, Darren got
1:37
Speaker 1: very lucky the promotion was going to be. He had
1:39
Speaker 1: to shave the Eagles logo into his head. If Carson
1:42
Speaker 1: wentz through for more than two and seventy yards. Clearly
1:45
Speaker 1: that didn't happen. This week, he is going to bet
1:49
Speaker 1: on Lamar Jackson under one half rushing touchdowns, under point
1:56
Speaker 1: five rushing touchdowns. The UH punishment we have set up
2:01
Speaker 1: is so dangerous, interesting and involving a famous person. You
2:08
Speaker 1: are not gonna want to miss it. You're gonna want
2:11
Speaker 1: to bet against Darren in the sole hope that this
2:13
Speaker 1: actually happens. I can't even reveal it yet, um, but
2:18
Speaker 1: check out points bet Darren's bet under one half Russian
2:22
Speaker 1: touchdowns for Lamar Jackson. It's going to be fantastic. I'm
2:25
Speaker 1: desperately hoping he gets more than half a Russian touchdown,
2:28
Speaker 1: which really means scoring one Russian touchdown. Bob Scucci, what
2:31
Speaker 1: do you think you think Lamar Jackson will score rushing
2:33
Speaker 1: touchdown this weekend? I do, yeah, I'll come. Uh well,
2:39
Speaker 1: I don't think. I mean take the last week's game
2:41
Speaker 1: out of the mix with the Titans defense. I mean
2:44
Speaker 1: the games they're winning, they're letting up some points. So
2:46
Speaker 1: if they're letting up points against UH teams that aren't
2:49
Speaker 1: as good as the Ravens, I think there's gonna be
2:53
Speaker 1: a high scoring affair. And in a high scoring affair,
2:56
Speaker 1: I think the chances are pretty good that one of
2:58
Speaker 1: the rushing touchdowns is gonna come from Jack. Well. Listen,
3:01
Speaker 1: the Titans are the most interesting team to me, and
3:03
Speaker 1: we have spent a lot of time talking about them,
3:06
Speaker 1: and I do before we get into the games, and
3:07
Speaker 1: we'll talk about we'll talk about Minnesota, San Francisco, and
3:11
Speaker 1: Tennessee Baltimore. Those are the Saturday games. We'll start with those.
3:14
Speaker 1: But this Titans team. Look, we both were all over
3:19
Speaker 1: the Titans heading into the game. We like the Titans
3:22
Speaker 1: at plus five, plus five and a half, We have
3:24
Speaker 1: a license at plus four and a half. The wise
3:27
Speaker 1: guys have been all over the Titans. Where did you
3:30
Speaker 1: end up on Sunday? Like, how did you end up
3:33
Speaker 1: in terms of where money was on Tennessee and where
3:35
Speaker 1: money was on New England. Oh, we definitely needed the Titans.
3:38
Speaker 1: And and it's kind of like what I said on
3:40
Speaker 1: the shows that we had done, is that regardless of
3:43
Speaker 1: how much the wise guys love the Titans, the public
3:46
Speaker 1: was still on the Patriots. So you know, we opened high,
3:49
Speaker 1: We opened six on the game based on kind of
3:51
Speaker 1: that public sentiment, and then we got bet down to
3:54
Speaker 1: four and a half from the wise guys earlier in
3:55
Speaker 1: the week, and then that line got driven up to
3:58
Speaker 1: five five and a half from the public again, and
4:00
Speaker 1: going into the game, we were huge Titans fans, and
4:03
Speaker 1: the fact that they won the game straight up was
4:05
Speaker 1: even bigger for us. Now, I will say that in
4:08
Speaker 1: the last few years, when we've done really well on
4:11
Speaker 1: wild card weekend, we've done equally as poor on divisional
4:15
Speaker 1: round weekend. And and part of the reason is is
4:18
Speaker 1: that when we do get a lot of these upsets
4:21
Speaker 1: in the wild card weekend, then the disparity between those
4:25
Speaker 1: teams that have a bye in the divisional round are
4:27
Speaker 1: playing an even worst team so to speak. In other words,
4:31
Speaker 1: the point spreads are bigger and bigger, and the last
4:34
Speaker 1: couple of years, the home teams have been like seven
4:36
Speaker 1: and one uh and covering those spreads. So it's good
4:41
Speaker 1: that we get the upsets and wild card week But
4:43
Speaker 1: then what happens the following week is you've got these
4:46
Speaker 1: big disparities between these the teams that have the buy
4:50
Speaker 1: and the teams that weren't really supposed to be there.
4:52
Speaker 1: So you have these huge point spreads. That is the
4:58
Speaker 1: most fascinating thing about the weekend before even get into
5:00
Speaker 1: the games. Yeah, I'm not trying to I'm not trying
5:03
Speaker 1: to keep people listening for longer. That would be entirely
5:06
Speaker 1: inappropriate of a podcasts. But these numbers all open so big,
5:12
Speaker 1: Like especially the Chiefs game and especially the Ravens game.
5:16
Speaker 1: It gave me such a made me have to really
5:20
Speaker 1: think hard about which way I'm going to go. And
5:22
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm being forced into making a decision
5:25
Speaker 1: just based on how the market is moving, because I
5:27
Speaker 1: didn't love the numbers in either direction. And so when
5:30
Speaker 1: you're setting these numbers, you've got a huge Titan to
5:33
Speaker 1: win against the Patriots, You've got the Chiefs are a
5:35
Speaker 1: massive public team, You've got a Texans scene that needed
5:38
Speaker 1: over time to win their game. I imagine like things
5:43
Speaker 1: are just in your head jumbled like a very difficult puzzle. Well,
5:48
Speaker 1: we weren't expecting, so we were we were kind of
5:51
Speaker 1: setting lines on what iss you know, prior to last
5:54
Speaker 1: weekend's game, and we weren't expecting these matchups. So we're
5:57
Speaker 1: just trying to decide. Okay, let's look at this Kansas City,
6:00
Speaker 1: New England, mine, and what's that my mind's going to be.
6:02
Speaker 1: And initially maybe four and a half, but then as
6:05
Speaker 1: the Patriots weren't looking so good, we're saying, you know what,
6:07
Speaker 1: we've got to open Kansas City maybe as high as
6:09
Speaker 1: six against the Patriots, and then all of a sudden,
6:12
Speaker 1: we're like, wait a minute, Patriots might not win. Now
6:14
Speaker 1: Kansas City is gonna play Houston. The Titans are gonna
6:17
Speaker 1: so we're so, yeah, we're we're we're trying to get
6:19
Speaker 1: all these uh these matchups in and uh and they're not.
6:23
Speaker 1: You know, I'm looking at possibly the forty niners in
6:26
Speaker 1: the Seahawks thinking that, you know, the Saints are gonna
6:28
Speaker 1: win obviously, and then the Saints are gonna go to
6:30
Speaker 1: Lambeau and you know what, do we make the Saints?
6:33
Speaker 1: So everything got messed up. And I'll be and I'll
6:36
Speaker 1: be honest with you. I think looking back on this,
6:39
Speaker 1: uh opening up the Ravens, the ten point favorite against
6:43
Speaker 1: the Titans was probably maybe maybe a little higher than
6:46
Speaker 1: what we should have, but we didn't take that much yet,
6:51
Speaker 1: so so I'm not too upset. And I know that
6:53
Speaker 1: some of the public money will come back on the
6:54
Speaker 1: Ravens but uh, but yeah, that's what happens. You know,
6:59
Speaker 1: like you said, all these matchups are mixed up and
7:02
Speaker 1: jumbled in your head and you're trying to get all
7:03
Speaker 1: your point spreads exactly right. How much did the Patriots
7:08
Speaker 1: losing help you in terms of the futures perspective, help
7:13
Speaker 1: you in terms of balancing the books this past weekend?
7:16
Speaker 1: What does that do for you? So we actually, you know,
7:19
Speaker 1: the Patriots were one of the favorites to win obviously
7:22
Speaker 1: at the beginning of the year. Um, so we actually
7:26
Speaker 1: did really well with Patriots winning the Super Bowl. So
7:30
Speaker 1: with them out and now the Titans possibly in it,
7:34
Speaker 1: we don't do well with some of these long shots.
7:37
Speaker 1: So the Titans or the Texans win it, we don't
7:39
Speaker 1: do real well. Uh, we don't do real well with
7:42
Speaker 1: the forty Niners or Ravens because the forty Niners really
7:45
Speaker 1: kind of came on out of nowhere at the beginning
7:47
Speaker 1: of the year. So the teams that we do the
7:52
Speaker 1: best one are probably the Packers, um uh, probably the
7:58
Speaker 1: Ravens and the Chiefs, I mean the the Chiefs. Probably
8:01
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Packers are probably the two teams
8:03
Speaker 1: we do the best on you know what I need
8:05
Speaker 1: to happen. Because we've discussed this. I'm in a very
8:09
Speaker 1: high stakes pool three other people. We each choose eight teams,
8:14
Speaker 1: or four of us choose eight teams snake draft before
8:17
Speaker 1: the season starts. Whosever team wins the Super Bowl wins
8:23
Speaker 1: the entire pot. I went into the playoffs having the Chiefs,
8:29
Speaker 1: the Niners, the Texans, the Titans, and the Bills. So
8:32
Speaker 1: now we are into the divisional round and I have, uh,
8:37
Speaker 1: four of the eight teams remaining in the divisional round?
8:42
Speaker 1: Can believe strong? That is unreal? That really is including
8:48
Speaker 1: the one seed in the two seed, and I would
8:50
Speaker 1: say as a two seed, they are a live two seed.
8:53
Speaker 1: The Kansas City Chiefs. I love this team right now.
8:55
Speaker 1: They are playing so well. If they lose this weekend
8:58
Speaker 1: of the Texans, I am going to be crushed because
9:01
Speaker 1: I am such a huge Chiefs fan right now. I
9:05
Speaker 1: think that's the one game on the board that kind
9:07
Speaker 1: of most people aren't giving the Texans much of a
9:11
Speaker 1: chance in this one. Nine and a half is kind
9:13
Speaker 1: of uh what the line is right now? And all
9:16
Speaker 1: the all the money and all the tickets are on
9:18
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Um So you talked a little bit about
9:22
Speaker 1: the big point spreads. I think the difference in the
9:24
Speaker 1: Titans Ravens line is that a lot of people feel
9:29
Speaker 1: like the Titans are a live dog in that one,
9:31
Speaker 1: whereas in the Chiefs Texans, I think a lot of
9:34
Speaker 1: people feel like the Texans were very inconsistent, winning some
9:38
Speaker 1: big games, but then losing games they should have won easily. Uh.
9:42
Speaker 1: And then uh, you know, tough, tough game against the
9:44
Speaker 1: Bills that could have went either way. That was a
9:46
Speaker 1: point flip. So there's nothing particularly dominating, uh that you
9:50
Speaker 1: look at that game and say, Okay, you know, they
9:53
Speaker 1: really are a lot better than we thought. Um, you
9:56
Speaker 1: don't get that. So I think everyone feels like the
9:59
Speaker 1: Chiefs is really the play here, all right, So let's
10:02
Speaker 1: get let's get to it. Let's talk about the most
10:05
Speaker 1: controversial team, the most controversial ending the Minnesota Vikings. And um,
10:12
Speaker 1: there are seven point underdogs right now against said San
10:16
Speaker 1: Francisco forty Niners. How you set that number? How did
10:21
Speaker 1: the weekend's results impact You're thinking on what this number
10:25
Speaker 1: would have did a little bit in terms of kind
10:29
Speaker 1: of the Vikings, Uh, playing a lot better than um
10:34
Speaker 1: than we anticipate that we're looking back on the game,
10:38
Speaker 1: I guess you can say that the Saints lost that
10:40
Speaker 1: game as much as the Vikings won that game. You know,
10:44
Speaker 1: we're looking at the Saints the last three years and
10:46
Speaker 1: how going into it they seem like one of the
10:48
Speaker 1: best teams and then somehow they just find ways to
10:51
Speaker 1: lose games flukes, you know, the last two years. This
10:54
Speaker 1: one wasn't as much of a fluke, but just a
10:56
Speaker 1: lot of poor decision making I think on the Saint side,
10:59
Speaker 1: you know, on this field goal, and and some some
11:02
Speaker 1: bad the fumbled by Drew Brees as they're getting ready
11:05
Speaker 1: to go in for a touchdown. So I don't think
11:08
Speaker 1: it was a case where we just suddenly thought that
11:11
Speaker 1: the Vikings were so much better than we thought they
11:13
Speaker 1: were going into the game. So um, but we were looking,
11:17
Speaker 1: like I said, at San Francisco playing Seattle, and we're
11:21
Speaker 1: kind of thinking of what that line should be like
11:23
Speaker 1: somewhere in the neighbor the neighborhood of four and a
11:25
Speaker 1: half to five and a half Minnesota. Um, I feel
11:30
Speaker 1: we feel like they're not as good as that Seattle matchup.
11:33
Speaker 1: So made it a little bit higher and started with
11:35
Speaker 1: the touchdown figure let's start with a key number of
11:38
Speaker 1: seven and let the money take us off of that
11:41
Speaker 1: key number rather than starting at six and a half
11:44
Speaker 1: and letting us, you know, drive onto the key number.
11:47
Speaker 1: That's what makes these games so interesting. Right when we
11:52
Speaker 1: learned to the weekend, you and I both love Minnesota.
11:56
Speaker 1: I believe you had Minnesota in Scooch Roulette. I had
11:59
Speaker 1: the text in um. We both thought Philly was a
12:03
Speaker 1: live dog, which they made have been if if Carson
12:06
Speaker 1: wentz uh survives the game. We both love Tennessee and
12:12
Speaker 1: it's betting is all about understanding the window. There's nothing
12:17
Speaker 1: about Minnesota going into this game that I feel as
12:20
Speaker 1: good about Minnesota as a equally high underdog as I
12:24
Speaker 1: did in the last game. Yeah. I mean it's a
12:29
Speaker 1: lot of points for you know, a divisional round game.
12:32
Speaker 1: And even though the Minnesota only has you know, you
12:35
Speaker 1: think about it, they only have five days rest. They
12:37
Speaker 1: were going to think the only team playing Sunday that's
12:40
Speaker 1: now playing on Saturday. So there's just one extra less
12:43
Speaker 1: day's rest than the other three teams. Uh. So you
12:46
Speaker 1: got you're going up against a fresh forty niner team. Uh.
12:51
Speaker 1: I like where the lion is if you had to
12:54
Speaker 1: sway me. If I had was forced to play the game,
12:56
Speaker 1: I'd probably just take the points because that's what you
12:59
Speaker 1: do and take at many points in a divisional round game.
13:01
Speaker 1: But I wouldn't feel great about it. What about the totals?
13:06
Speaker 1: So the total in this one, the sharp guys have
13:08
Speaker 1: already met the under on this one UM, and uh,
13:11
Speaker 1: you know, I think they're looking for these defenses to
13:14
Speaker 1: kind of step up. Minnesota has already did. But we
13:17
Speaker 1: opened the game at forty five and a half. Actually
13:21
Speaker 1: we opened this one at forty six, and we're down
13:24
Speaker 1: to forty five. Now all sharp money. Uh, the public
13:28
Speaker 1: money really hasn't come in on the total yet, but
13:30
Speaker 1: this is just all sharp money on the under. Both games,
13:34
Speaker 1: the Titans Ravens game, they also bet the under that one.
13:37
Speaker 1: We opened forty eight and a half and we're down
13:39
Speaker 1: to forty seven on this one UM, and we can
13:42
Speaker 1: easily go to forty six and a half. But I'm
13:44
Speaker 1: just worried that all the over money is gonna usually
13:47
Speaker 1: comes in closer to game time when you get most
13:49
Speaker 1: of the public wait until the last minute to bet,
13:52
Speaker 1: and they usually bet the overs. Which way do you favor? Right?
13:55
Speaker 1: Now I'd like the unders in both of them. Actually, uh,
14:00
Speaker 1: if we're looking at value, and again, these because there
14:03
Speaker 1: were such highly concentrated games, we try to think of
14:07
Speaker 1: where the betting public is going to be playing, and
14:09
Speaker 1: usually they bet the overs. So we're very high on
14:13
Speaker 1: the totals going into these games, and we know that,
14:16
Speaker 1: and so we try not to let the wise guys
14:19
Speaker 1: move us off too much from that high total because
14:21
Speaker 1: we know it's going to creep back up by game time.
14:24
Speaker 1: So the value initially is going to be on the under.
14:29
Speaker 1: Because I'm also in a pool this weekend where like,
14:32
Speaker 1: you pay a little bit and you do confidence ratings
14:35
Speaker 1: against every game. Scooch, all of a sudden, I'm like
14:37
Speaker 1: a degenerate gambler. You are. You're in pools, You're in contest,
14:42
Speaker 1: your head to head matchups. You've got a lot going on. Man,
14:45
Speaker 1: what happened to me? I used to be like, I'm
14:49
Speaker 1: interested in it for the psychology and the math and
14:53
Speaker 1: the language. I think it's a really visceral language. And
14:56
Speaker 1: now I am like, Stace, we need the Chiefs and Niners.
15:01
Speaker 1: We are paying for spring break. If we get the
15:04
Speaker 1: Chiefs and the Niners, just let's roll. And even even
15:08
Speaker 1: last night, she's like, wait, wait, who do we need again?
15:11
Speaker 1: What do we need? And what are you paying if
15:13
Speaker 1: you lose? And now all of a sudden she's asking
15:15
Speaker 1: me questions. It's like different conversations. Yeah, baby needs to
15:23
Speaker 1: pay for flights to Puerto Rico. Yeah, exactly what happened
15:29
Speaker 1: to me? I believe? Well, yeah, you hang around all
15:34
Speaker 1: of us out here in Vegas, that are you know,
15:36
Speaker 1: that's just a way of life for us. You know,
15:39
Speaker 1: when I'm watching a game, anyone that comes in the room,
15:41
Speaker 1: they're like, the first question is who do you need? Yeah,
15:43
Speaker 1: it's not and they're shocked when I'm like, no, just
15:46
Speaker 1: watching the game. They're what I'll tell you, I am
15:49
Speaker 1: a little worried about my kids. Like now, every single
15:52
Speaker 1: time I sit down and watch a football game, my
15:56
Speaker 1: younger son, who'd you better, I'm like Jesus. But then
16:02
Speaker 1: I got to explain, and now I'm worried. Like last night,
16:05
Speaker 1: he and I were watching the Mavericks Bulls game together.
16:08
Speaker 1: You know, he's a huge Bulls fan, you know, and
16:12
Speaker 1: uh loves the NBA. He's like, we got money on
16:14
Speaker 1: this game. Oh that's funny. Like me, as a kid
16:22
Speaker 1: with my dad. That's what That's what we did. Oh man,
16:25
Speaker 1: I'm just enjoying the game with you. Let's cuddle. Let's
16:28
Speaker 1: just cuddle, man, Um, all right, Tennessee is at Baltimore. Baltimore.
16:33
Speaker 1: You open this game big, really big. Let's talk about
16:37
Speaker 1: the total first, because I think what you just mentioned
16:39
Speaker 1: about wanting to open these a little high and not
16:42
Speaker 1: get off that number too quickly. This is the second
16:46
Speaker 1: highest total of the weekend. It's forty and a half. Uh.
16:50
Speaker 1: Forty nine is the Kansas City game. Forty and a
16:53
Speaker 1: half is a lot for two teams that are known
16:55
Speaker 1: for rushing the ball. So how do you end up
16:56
Speaker 1: with this number? Um? Well, like that that Tennessee defense
17:01
Speaker 1: just isn't known as being as stout as I mean,
17:04
Speaker 1: they're winning a lot of these games, and they're covering
17:05
Speaker 1: a lot of spreads, but we're kind of looking at
17:08
Speaker 1: the points given up. The yards is given up. Uh.
17:11
Speaker 1: They do both like to run the run the ball,
17:13
Speaker 1: and that's kind of why I favor the under. When
17:16
Speaker 1: you asked me if I had to bet which way
17:19
Speaker 1: I'd go. I mean, Derrick Henry has just been a monster,
17:23
Speaker 1: who's been a beast average in five six yards of
17:26
Speaker 1: carry and if there is kind of a chink in
17:29
Speaker 1: the armor in the Baltimore defense. I know there's ranked
17:32
Speaker 1: like third or fourth against the rush, but they do
17:34
Speaker 1: let up uh quite a few yards four and a
17:37
Speaker 1: half five yards of carry. So um, and again we
17:41
Speaker 1: know that the public is going to want to bet
17:44
Speaker 1: the over in this one too, so uh, I think
17:48
Speaker 1: it's a good number, but it's the wise guys can
17:52
Speaker 1: see value on the under, and I'm okay with that.
17:54
Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens. Doesn't this have the feeling
17:58
Speaker 1: of Derrick Henry just getting shut down? Well, they've got
18:04
Speaker 1: to they know that that that he's the key, So
18:06
Speaker 1: I mean they've got to focus on him. And yeah, hardball,
18:09
Speaker 1: you know, he's he's great at figuring that stuff out
18:12
Speaker 1: and he's been known to you know, he's one of
18:14
Speaker 1: the great coaches. So uh, I'm a little surprised Belichick
18:18
Speaker 1: didn't have a little bit more. Uh you know, I
18:22
Speaker 1: guess just a sign of the decline of the Patriots.
18:25
Speaker 1: But but yeah, it does have that feel that because
18:28
Speaker 1: everyone's expecting him. I think I read where he's got
18:33
Speaker 1: a thousand yards and just set the last seven games,
18:36
Speaker 1: and usually a thousand yards season is a monster season
18:39
Speaker 1: for a running back, and he's got it tast the
18:41
Speaker 1: amount of games that most people take the whole season.
18:45
Speaker 1: Yet he's got four four yards in the past two games.
18:50
Speaker 1: He went for more than two hundred against in the
18:52
Speaker 1: last game against the Texans, and he went for more
18:54
Speaker 1: than two hundred against the Patriots, and that was a
18:56
Speaker 1: weird two. Like he's one of the running backs where
19:01
Speaker 1: he he like scarfs up yards and so all of
19:07
Speaker 1: a sudden, it's five yards and he's got a hundred
19:11
Speaker 1: and twenty yards and a half, and you're like, how
19:13
Speaker 1: did that happen? Like, you know, he just eats them
19:17
Speaker 1: like four yards at a time. That's it. Very Eric Dickerson.
19:22
Speaker 1: Very Yeah, he's got that huge build. You know, he's
19:25
Speaker 1: a tall guy and he's big, and he's just a
19:27
Speaker 1: train coming at you. Uh it's not like that kind
19:30
Speaker 1: of Barry Sanders type of runner where you know, it's
19:33
Speaker 1: just making a lot of moves and get getting those
19:37
Speaker 1: big eighty yard touchdowns. But it's uh, like you said,
19:40
Speaker 1: it's grinding just I mean, it's hard to stop him,
19:43
Speaker 1: all right, So you opened this game ten it's now
19:45
Speaker 1: down to nine. You're making it very hard because I
19:48
Speaker 1: want to bet the Ravens in this game. I think
19:49
Speaker 1: they're going to crush them. But that nine is so
19:51
Speaker 1: freaking big you didn't want to bet. You didn't want
19:54
Speaker 1: to bet, like against Minnesota at plus seven. So how
19:59
Speaker 1: do you take the Titans? I know the Titans are
20:01
Speaker 1: gonna get killed in this game. I gotta take the Ravens.
20:03
Speaker 1: And I'm getting like it's someone's like, do I wait,
20:06
Speaker 1: what do I do here? Is it never gonna go down?
20:08
Speaker 1: Is it never going to go back up? When do
20:09
Speaker 1: I get it? I think it's gonna go down because
20:13
Speaker 1: the Titans have covered if you go back the last
20:16
Speaker 1: eight games the uh starting with the game they play
20:19
Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs, the Titans beat the Chiefs high
20:23
Speaker 1: scoring game, thirty five thirty two something like that. Since
20:27
Speaker 1: then they've cut. They've covered six out of eight games.
20:31
Speaker 1: And I know we've talked about it a lot on
20:33
Speaker 1: the show. The wise guys were absolutely in love with
20:35
Speaker 1: them starting with that Chiefs game. But now you you
20:39
Speaker 1: look at a lot of those games. They beat up
20:40
Speaker 1: on the Colts, the Jaguars once against the Texans team
20:44
Speaker 1: where they were resting players. They beat the Raiders, Um,
20:49
Speaker 1: they're Yeah, they beat the Patriots last week. That's what
20:52
Speaker 1: the public is going to see. But I agree with you.
20:55
Speaker 1: I don't mind needing the Ravens in this one. Um,
20:59
Speaker 1: you know you still Okay, A lot of the good
21:01
Speaker 1: teams of Tennessee played and yeah, they beat the Chiefs,
21:05
Speaker 1: but you know they they've lost a couple of They
21:09
Speaker 1: lost to the Saints. Uh in that eight week stretch.
21:13
Speaker 1: They lost again the second time they played the Texans.
21:16
Speaker 1: So yeah, they're they're they're beatiful and and with Baltimore
21:20
Speaker 1: resting and just that dynamic offense and good coach, I
21:23
Speaker 1: could easily see uh kind of a blowout in this one.
21:29
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the totals in all these games, and
21:31
Speaker 1: I might want to go under in all four playoff
21:33
Speaker 1: games Houston and Kansas City. Kansas City nine and a
21:36
Speaker 1: half points opened it eight skyrocketed up. I did not
21:41
Speaker 1: get the best of the number in this game. I
21:43
Speaker 1: feel terrible because I so don't want to bet on Houston.
21:46
Speaker 1: I want to bet in Kansas City in this game.
21:49
Speaker 1: Not as good at home, that's the one thing. Yeah,
21:54
Speaker 1: and they don't have a good track record in the playoffs.
21:57
Speaker 1: I mean even under Andy Reid, as good as he
22:01
Speaker 1: is in the regular season, he's been kind of the
22:03
Speaker 1: opposite when he gets to the playoffs. Now, I know
22:06
Speaker 1: it's a different story with this team and a guy
22:09
Speaker 1: like Mahomes, but this is this is the one game
22:14
Speaker 1: we're both the Shark guys and the public are on
22:17
Speaker 1: the same side. And I know I've said that many
22:19
Speaker 1: many times that that's usually bad for the bookmakers, But
22:23
Speaker 1: when you get both of them on the same side,
22:25
Speaker 1: that means we just made a bad line on this one. Now,
22:28
Speaker 1: we can still win the game, gotta get lucky, but
22:30
Speaker 1: we never want to see a line open eight, go
22:33
Speaker 1: to nine and a half and have both the public
22:35
Speaker 1: and the Sharks on the same side. Well, I was
22:39
Speaker 1: gonna say the total on this one is one of
22:41
Speaker 1: the only games that has gone up, so both wise,
22:44
Speaker 1: guys in the public both like the over on this one.
22:46
Speaker 1: So this one's just a bad game all the way
22:48
Speaker 1: around for us. Guys like the over because Chiefs at
22:53
Speaker 1: home are scoring significantly fewer points and the Chiefs at
22:57
Speaker 1: home in the playoffs. Uh. We have a great story
23:01
Speaker 1: from John Ewing Action Network dot Com again, download the
23:04
Speaker 1: Action Network out. Uh, it's free um to the under.
23:12
Speaker 1: The chiefs are under Andy Reid at home. Wow, didn't
23:17
Speaker 1: didn't know that it's a good stat to have, so
23:20
Speaker 1: well we need it under. I hope that, I hope,
23:22
Speaker 1: I hope the trend continues. I think the wise guys
23:25
Speaker 1: here got the best of the number in the side.
23:27
Speaker 1: That's what I was going to say before. So they
23:29
Speaker 1: bettered at eight and now the public is just continuing
23:31
Speaker 1: to pile on. Wise guys are not bet in this
23:33
Speaker 1: game at nine and nine and a half. I just
23:35
Speaker 1: want to be clear, Like they bettered at eight and
23:37
Speaker 1: then they walked away. Yeah, I mean there is a
23:41
Speaker 1: couple of tens out there, not many ten even moneys
23:44
Speaker 1: at some of the places around Vegas. Most places are
23:48
Speaker 1: at nine nine and a half though, So but you know, again,
23:52
Speaker 1: we're already seeing like sixty six the bets coming in
23:56
Speaker 1: on on Kansas City. It may drive it up to
23:58
Speaker 1: ten and then you may see some some other sets
24:02
Speaker 1: of wive guys just taken ten knowing that they already
24:05
Speaker 1: laid eight and looking for a middle. This feels like
24:07
Speaker 1: a blowout weekend. Everything last weekend was so close. This
24:10
Speaker 1: feels like a Niners, Ravens Chiefs blow them that weekend.
24:15
Speaker 1: The only game that I think will be close is
24:17
Speaker 1: the game between two fraudulent teams that is sort of
24:20
Speaker 1: the marquee matchup, which is the Seahawks and the Packers.
24:23
Speaker 1: Neither team is as good as their record indicates. Um,
24:26
Speaker 1: and you're kind of reflecting that lowest spread of the weekend.
24:29
Speaker 1: It's minus four open to three and a half. Some
24:32
Speaker 1: money came in on the Packers. Give me your narrative here. Yeah, Well,
24:37
Speaker 1: you know, like I said, I wasn't expecting this matchup.
24:39
Speaker 1: I was expecting green Bay to be kind of a short.
24:42
Speaker 1: I was actually hoping just to see green Bay being
24:45
Speaker 1: an underdog at home in a playoff game to the Saints,
24:48
Speaker 1: because that's what was going to happen. Had the Saints
24:51
Speaker 1: beat the Vikings and uh, and then the Seahawks would
24:54
Speaker 1: have been playing you know, San Francisco for the third
24:56
Speaker 1: time this year, which you know, there were two great games,
25:00
Speaker 1: so I mean, I was expecting another good game there.
25:03
Speaker 1: So this was the unexpected matchup. But I'm happy that
25:06
Speaker 1: this is the last game of the weekend because, like
25:08
Speaker 1: you said, it's the most competitive in terms of where
25:11
Speaker 1: the line is so hopefully the public can't make up
25:15
Speaker 1: their mind on this one. But we're getting kind of
25:17
Speaker 1: fifty fifty action, which is great for the get out
25:20
Speaker 1: game on the weekend that it's not completely lopsided that
25:23
Speaker 1: we're gonna need for our lunch. The Kansas City game
25:27
Speaker 1: is going to be the big game of the weekend
25:28
Speaker 1: for US, So going into this one, like I said,
25:30
Speaker 1: it's fifty fifty is take account. Um, really don't have
25:34
Speaker 1: any big money on either side. The sharp guys haven't
25:38
Speaker 1: tipped their hand as to which way they're going in
25:40
Speaker 1: this one. Um, I would suspect maybe Seattle only because
25:46
Speaker 1: of the points and more than a field goal if
25:48
Speaker 1: you think the game is going to be competitive. But uh,
25:52
Speaker 1: and not much on the total either in this one.
25:54
Speaker 1: So uh, it looks like we said a decent line.
25:57
Speaker 1: That's not a lot of movement. I guess my feeling
25:59
Speaker 1: on the Seahawks is that they haven't done anything to
26:02
Speaker 1: improve their secondary. They haven't done anything to improve their
26:05
Speaker 1: defense in the middle of the field. Aaron Rodgers could
26:08
Speaker 1: pick them apart, so this could easily be another blowout game.
26:13
Speaker 1: It's entirely possible I end up having to choose the
26:15
Speaker 1: favorites and the under in every game, and I'm going
26:18
Speaker 1: to have to do this confidence pool. I'm not going
26:20
Speaker 1: to know which one to do, but I might just
26:23
Speaker 1: do it. That might be what happens. And like I said,
26:26
Speaker 1: I hate this weekend because typically that's usually what happens,
26:29
Speaker 1: especially when you get the upsets in the in the
26:31
Speaker 1: wild card weekend and you have the quote unquote inferior team.
26:35
Speaker 1: The less the teams that we're getting points in the
26:37
Speaker 1: wild card weekends that weren't supposed to win and now
26:40
Speaker 1: they're playing an even better team the week after. So yeah,
26:43
Speaker 1: that's what that's what scares me. And then the teaser
26:46
Speaker 1: weekend you look at I'm already looking at our our
26:49
Speaker 1: three team teaser liability with San Francisco, Baltimore, and Kansas City.
26:54
Speaker 1: I mean all of them just have to either win
26:56
Speaker 1: win by a field goal and we get annihilated. Oh
26:59
Speaker 1: my god, that's totally that is going to be. Like
27:01
Speaker 1: the six point teaser is gonna be San Francisco to
27:05
Speaker 1: minus war in, Baltimore to minus three, and Kansas City,
27:09
Speaker 1: uh to minus three and a half. Oh my god,
27:11
Speaker 1: you guys are crude from the cage that's transfer the
27:18
Speaker 1: money now so we can start paying out. Oh my god,
27:21
Speaker 1: you're so screwed because they are gonna blow those teams out.
27:24
Speaker 1: I might have to do that myself. I can't wait. Scoot.
27:30
Speaker 1: You know we should do right now. Screw troulette. Let's
27:33
Speaker 1: do it, baby. We both won last week. I had
27:42
Speaker 1: the Houston Texans. You had the Minnesota Vikings. So guess what.
27:48
Speaker 1: I'm gonna let you go first. I'm gonna double down
27:52
Speaker 1: on the Minnesota Vikings flu the sudden. You hate that
27:55
Speaker 1: pick though, you really do. I'm not crazy, I really do,
28:00
Speaker 1: but I can't. I mean, I'm looking at Kansas City
28:02
Speaker 1: and I couldn't lay nine and a half points, even
28:05
Speaker 1: though I think that they win this game pretty handily.
28:09
Speaker 1: You do not. You do not like what you're doing
28:11
Speaker 1: right now. I like what I'm doing right now. I
28:13
Speaker 1: am taking the Baltimore Ravens. I think that this is
28:18
Speaker 1: a Look what am I gonna do? I don't I
28:19
Speaker 1: don't trust the Packers. You took the Vikings. So my
28:22
Speaker 1: two options are the Chiefs at nine and a half
28:24
Speaker 1: of the Ravens at nine, and you know what's screw it.
28:32
Speaker 1: I'm all in on the Chiefs. Oh, I am, I
28:35
Speaker 1: was gonna I'm actually gonna go to the Chiefs. I
28:37
Speaker 1: was tossed between the Chiefs. I am pop committed to
28:40
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. And this Texas team is just as Charles
28:44
Speaker 1: Berkley would say, drible. They're just terrible. So yeah, you've
28:50
Speaker 1: been on them quite a bit, so you should know.
28:53
Speaker 1: Just give me the Kansas City Chiefs. Give me the
28:56
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. Get him into the a f C
28:58
Speaker 1: title game. Give me the same Cisco forty to get
29:01
Speaker 1: the title game. Let me start hedging the freak out
29:03
Speaker 1: of those two teams. So I can still pay for
29:05
Speaker 1: my trips. That's why. So I can, so I can
29:09
Speaker 1: tell my wife we're making money even when we're losing money.
29:11
Speaker 1: I can use the old Bob Scucci. Yeah, exactly. Everybody
29:17
Speaker 1: should listen to us on tercom stations throughout the country.
29:23
Speaker 1: I heard this today, just today, I just heard this, Scooch.
29:25
Speaker 1: We are being added two more stations right now. You
29:28
Speaker 1: can hear you better, you bet from intercom with the
29:32
Speaker 1: Action Network countdown to kickoff the second hour. You can
29:37
Speaker 1: hear these uh ten to twelve on Saturday and Sunday,
29:40
Speaker 1: the pregames we're in this partnership with Edtercom. Scooch, you
29:43
Speaker 1: and I did Radio dot Com all season long Action
29:47
Speaker 1: Network Countdown, a kickoff that is now part of a
29:50
Speaker 1: big pregame package on Entercom stations. That is on in
29:54
Speaker 1: Chicago on the Score. It is on in Detroit, It's
29:58
Speaker 1: on in Milwaukee. It's on in San franc Tisco, it's
30:00
Speaker 1: on in San Diego. UM, it's on two more stations
30:04
Speaker 1: that I can't remember right now that I say Cleveland.
30:06
Speaker 1: It's on in Cleveland. It's on one more station. We're
30:09
Speaker 1: getting picked up in more stations. If you're in any
30:11
Speaker 1: of those cities within the range of those antennas, listen
30:16
Speaker 1: to you better you bet ten to twelve Eastern on
30:19
Speaker 1: Saturday and Sunday. It's you, it's me, It's Nick Costos,
30:23
Speaker 1: It's Danny Parkins's Joe Ostrowski, all these guys who know
30:26
Speaker 1: a lot about betting talking about betting in the window
30:30
Speaker 1: before the games. It's so much fun. It is the
30:33
Speaker 1: most fun live radio experience you're gonna have. If you
30:36
Speaker 1: like football, would you agree? I agree? Check it out, Scooch.
30:44
Speaker 1: I want to thank you for coming on your podcast.
30:46
Speaker 1: I want to thank everyone for listening. I want everyone
30:48
Speaker 1: to download it from Apple Podcast, listen to it and
30:50
Speaker 1: download it from Spotify, Go to radio dot Com, search
30:53
Speaker 1: the favorites, do whatever you gotta do to listen to
30:56
Speaker 1: this podcast my friends. Until next time we are out,
31:00
Speaker 1: I love you, M