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Episode 415: Learning to Love Lobbyists · Words & Numbers

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Hi, I'm James and I'm Anthony. And this is words and Numbers
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brought to you by the fine people at KHAKI, the Center for
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American Culture and Ideas. More on that in the future.
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But for now, as is my custom, I speak the following words to no
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effect whatsoever. But I do it out of respect for
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tradition and what's new and exciting in your world this
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week. Well, I have good news.
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Boston experienced last year or so, 2023, its lowest homicide
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rate on record. And here we are with roughly
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what, 10 days, 20 days till the end of 2024.
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And Boston's homicide rate is shaping up to be 60% less than
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last year's. Well, that's really quite
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significant. It's fascinating, and I was
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looking at the homicide statistics for the United
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States. The last time we took a deep
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dive into them was right is we're publishing our book.
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So the latest numbers at the time would have been probably
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2018 or 2019. And homicide rates in the US had
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plummeted from a high of like 9.8 in 1992 down to round about
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four and a half, 4.5 out of 100,000 people.
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If the United States as a whole goes the same route as Boston in
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cutting its current homicide rate by 60%, we would end up at,
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well, a historic low. It would be half of the level it
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was even in 20/13/2014. Oh wow.
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I don't think that we're going to match nationwide what Boston
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did, however I would be incredibly surprised if
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nationwide the number went up. Yeah, and you know, we have at
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least in very small part to thank for this one, Lieutenant
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Cronin, a police officer in the great city of Boston, who drove
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me to the bus stop from a courthouse and advised me never
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to come back. He ran you out of town.
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Oh my God, that's great. Indeed he did, but we'll get
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back to that a little more in this week's Foolishness of the
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Week, which oddly enough takes part in Boston as well.
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But before we get there, Aunt, I know how you love AI and I know
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how you love only Fans. But did you know that the young
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ladies on Only Fans, the so-called models, I guess
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they're models, are now using AI chat bots to talk dirty for them
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to multiple men at the same time.
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Oh, I thought you were going a different direction.
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OK, no, I none of this. Yep, was not going in a
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different direction. But you know, one woman can be
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talking to hundreds, even thousands of men at the same
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time, and every single one of those rubes is going to think
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he's talking to her. Yeah, but while this looks like
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a big plus for the women on Only Fans, I give it a year, maybe 2,
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before they get replaced by AII. Think that's right?
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Yeah, already AI can generate video, it's just hop on a skip
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to the next thing. And you and I are going to have
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a lot of fascinating things to talk about.
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I'll throw one out as a teaser. Is AI generated child
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pornography still somehow morally reprehensible?
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Wow, What do you do about that? Yeah.
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Do you do anything about it? Do you maybe encourage it?
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There's a panapoli very fascinating answers to that
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question. But we'll get there when we get
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there, because we have to get aunt to the foolishness of the
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week. And as I said, this one's coming
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out of Boston, a city near and dear to my heart.
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I love all things Boston. You know this about me.
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I spent a couple of years of my life at Boston University.
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Before you were run out of town. Didn't quite finish up there.
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Turns out AOC can get an economics degree, but I can't
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manage to finish much of anything there.
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I'll leave it to our listeners to try and make sense of that,
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and maybe this next little piece of evidence will help them
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understand Boston a little more. But I want to take us back,
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Aunt, you and me, to when we used to go to high schools and
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give lectures and almost every time a young person would raise
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his hand and say, what should I major in?
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Do you remember when they would ask us?
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And I used to give an answer that I saw you visibly flinch
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every time I said it, which is, of course why I kept doing it.
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Whatever you do, youngster, major in one of the STEM fields
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or some such, but don't major in medieval lesbian poetry.
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Right. Yes.
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Do you remember that feeling in the pit of your stomach every
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time I said it? I was sympathetic with the idea,
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with the intent, yeah, but the words were particularly in
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public schools, that was cringe worthy.
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And yet, aunt, here I am looking at the graduate catalogue for
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the English department at Boston University.
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And what do I find? Well, it's real close.
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It's not medieval lesbian poetry, it's medieval trans
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studies. Oh my God.
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Aunt I you not, it's right here in the catalogue and I will have
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a copy of that catalogue for all to see, but allow me to read
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from the course catalog at Did I mention this was Boston
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University? I want to keep mentioning that
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this is Boston University. This class will consider the
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deep histories of transgender embodiment by exploring
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literacy, historical, medical, and religious texts from the
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Middle Ages. Expect to read about alchemical
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hermaphrodites, gender fluid angels, Ethiopian eunuchs, trans
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Saints, sex workers, and gender queer monks.
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Yeah. And here's a little inside
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baseball, a class like that, pretty much anybody could see
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that. There's not a lot of how should
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I say, job potential coming from what you'd learn in that class,
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but nonetheless. Unless you go on to get a PhD
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and want to teach at the college level.
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Right. Yeah, and here's the inside
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baseball. How would such a class persist?
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Because while students would not opt to take it, the university
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will have something, maybe ADEI requirement that students must
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take at some point a certain number of classes within
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whatever their DEI category is. And I guarantee you this is one
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of the classes that they would have there.
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So you're forcing students, maybe not specifically into this
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class, but into a suite of classes like this, because
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that's the only way to get students into the class.
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Well, this is graduate class so. Oh, is it a graduate?
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Really. Yes 500 level and also in the
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graduate catalogue Disability voices English Shakespeare no
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disability voices yes studies and literary topics colon native
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literature is now Shakespeare no no Shelley no Percy no.
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I guess I should just be happy that there's no dedicated course
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to Karl Marx either. Right.
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Yeah, well, I'm sure there's one at the undergraduate.
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I'm absolutely certain of that too.
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For One Stop shopping for all things James and Aunt, visit our
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website wordsandnumbers.org. We give a special shout out to
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our Patreon sponsors who help us keep the lights on.
7:59
If you'd like to contribute, go to patreon.com/words and
8:03
Numbers. Jack Grayson is principal at AEG
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Policy Advisors, a government affairs consulting firm
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supporting realtor associations, home builders, and Chambers of
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Commerce. Jack has worked in campaign for
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both Republicans and Democrats across the country, which gives
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him insight into the importance of bipartisanship.
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Jack, welcome to Words of Numbers.
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Before Jack says anything, I want to just point out that of
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all the words you just read, the only one that wasn't there that
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you should have said out loud was lobbyist.
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Jack is a lobbyist. That was coming next.
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James Jack is here because we wanted to talk to a lobbyist and
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James is your friend. I say that with all the
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footnotes that would go with a statement like that.
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Before we started you were about to give some background on how
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it is you came to be James friend.
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Yeah, so James and I met, oh gosh, almost 21 years ago now.
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Really. You have been burdened with him
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almost as long as I have. Yeah, yeah.
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No, it is true. Yeah.
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I met James at the Wayne College where I finished my
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undergraduate, and James was prominent professor of mine for
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a couple of years while I was there.
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And in all honesty, he is the single reason I was able to
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graduate on time from Lemoyne. I was one credit shy and James
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gave me an independent study to get me through, so he has been a
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good friend for many, many years now and we love to get together
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occasionally for a good cigar and to opine about the current
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climate of all things politics in the world.
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The beautiful thing is, is that, you know, sometime around the
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same time I did, Jack moved to Tucson.
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That's true. Yeah.
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Here we are in the great city of Tucson, AZ together.
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Well this is great. I had no idea that you were his
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student. Yeah, a little more background
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on me, I kind of fell into politics and lobbying as a
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career, didn't really have any kind of crazy ambition to get
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into government would just found a real interest in politics.
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And then honestly, it was working with James and some of
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the other professors at Lemoyne that really kind of sparked my
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interest and sort of the philosophical side of policy and
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debate. And then that just kind of
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translated over many years down the road into we're getting
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campaigns and politics and realizing that from the right
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position. I should say that, and we'll
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probably get into this in the course of the conversation.
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You know, there's a lot of good that can come out of government.
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Those are words that have never been said on this podcast.
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Yeah, I understand that. But it's something where, you
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know, the average person just doesn't really understand how to
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move the needle for themselves, right?
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You know, you have a perceived issue or a problem, and they
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don't understand the resources that can be brought to bear
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through government. And sometimes it's just getting
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an elected official to pick up the phone and make a phone call
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on their behalf to resolve a problem.
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And you know, that's in all honesty and how I got my start,
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my career, I was an intern working for AUS senator in
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upstate New York. And people would call and they
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would have problems and I would pick up the phone.
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You know, it is a naive 19 year old and not know that you
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couldn't call the head of a Fortune 500 company and say, can
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you explain to me what's going on?
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And you know, often times one thing led to another and
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suddenly those issues were resolved.
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And so that's a wild oversimplification of a lot of
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things, but in many ways it's very true.
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And a lot of times, again, you know, the average person doesn't
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know who to pick up the phone and call to solve perceive
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problem, right? And sometimes they don't even
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actually know that what they perceive as a problem is or
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isn't a problem. Sometimes that problems already
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been solved and they just don't know who to go to, whether it is
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through government or it's through an outside agency or
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company or group that is offering a service to help them
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with that specific need and so. You took some pains not to
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mention that senator's name. Minor detail.
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OK, we continue on and I remember when Jack was a young
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man, probably 21 ish when we knew each other maybe.
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Yeah, smart, obviously, right from the start, driven in his
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own kind of lazy way. And you know, a pretty boy with
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long flowing hair that's changed E sports, the James look, now,
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you know, look, you had all the tools, right?
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You could have done a number of different things.
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And like you say, you just kind of happened to fall into
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lobbying through working as an intern in a senator's office.
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And, and there's probably 5 or 6 more steps in there that we
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don't have to labor over with our listeners, but you become a
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lobbyist. All right, here's just a couple
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of simple questions to get us started.
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Who are you working for or who have you worked for
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traditionally? And what is it exactly that a
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lobbyist does? Because I don't think a lot of
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people know. Yeah.
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So two really good questions, right?
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And I'll say this, there's a couple of ways to get into sort
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of the world of lobbying. Like you can be and academic and
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you just have a certain level of education that is informative
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and you know, you find your your landing place and suddenly you
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become that issue expert or specific group or elected leader
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or what not. You know, the other way, and it
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was the way I got in was through campaigns and campaign work.
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I've worked for Republicans and Democrats.
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I don't think either is any better or worse than the other.
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They all have their own misses and shortcomings that just don't
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make sense to, I think to most people.
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But that's kind of the avenue that I got into.
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And I just got connected with what became my career for the
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last 16 years, which was working for the Realtor association.
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So I actually started working in Florida, spent a decade there
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and then ended up moving on to go work at the national level
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for NAR for just shy of six years before.
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And I ended up relocating during COVID to Tucson and then, you
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know, wanted to be at home. I have a 2 1/2 year old son.
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I decided to open up my own firm and working with some colleagues
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of mine across the country, we have started trying to support
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again, Realtor association, Chambers of Commerce, home
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builders, other business groups to help them in resolving their
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problems. Because again, you know, going
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back to the statement that I made before about how people, we
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really don't know the services that are out there for them or
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how to solve their problems per SE, that winds up happening at
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the corporate level as well. And a lot of times it's just
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helping them navigate the landscape of sort of what is the
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current policy, what is the state of things?
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What data is out there to talk about sort of what's going on
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and what's relevant Is the issue that you perceive to be a
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problem really a problem? You know, often times that's a
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fun conversation to have with a client to tell them, you know,
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that, you know, what you think is not really the truth.
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The data doesn't wind up supporting that.
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But you know, getting back to your question, James, what is
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lobbyists, right? And the reality is we are just
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advocates. You know, the entire community
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of us, we are advocates for interest groups, individuals,
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parties, groups of people, whoever on a host of issues.
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Sometimes they're consolidated like real estate into what
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matters to housing and get into the medical field, which I'm not
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an expert in. And most of the time we are
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brought in to help guide our clients through the process so
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that they we can take the emotional side with a personal
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side of what they're dealing with and put it off the table,
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right? I can be an advocate for
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somebody and have no interest in what it is they're doing, but
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you're trying to help them break down the issue to understand
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like, OK, here's your personal side.
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Let's take your personal issues off the table and let's just
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talk about the merits of what the issue or perceived problem
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is and then where we can resolve it.
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Sometimes that is through legislative policy, other times
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it's not. Sometimes it's working with an
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agency to amend the rules that they wind up working with.
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Sometimes it's, you know, working with other industries to
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develop new programs and services to address those
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specific issues. And there's lots of variation in
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how you wind up dealing with that.
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And then ultimately, every lobbyist is also a campaign
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person as well. And eventually we wind up
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getting into the world of if you can't resolve the problem or it
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really is an issue, you know, how do you get other voters
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involved? How do you make it something of
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interest for them as well? And then that's a whole separate
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conversation. And so it gets complex.
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But at the same time, a lot of what we're trying to do is help
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them develop strategies and tactics to help them act on
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their own behalf and in their own best interest in a positive
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way. It's always seemed to me to be
16:07
the case that the lobbyists who have come in contact with, they
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almost all would have made fantastic attorneys.
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And it also seems to me to be the case that lobbying
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understood properly through the way you just lined it up, is
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what young people think attorneys do.
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So it seems to me that that's a wise thing for people to put in
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their hats and think about for later.
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If you're young person and you're listening to this and you
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think you want to be a lawyer, you might want to be a lobbyist.
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Yeah. Well, there is a bit of a
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misconception there that all lobbyists are lawyers, right?
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And that couldn't be any further from the truth.
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You know, most of us are former college students, some of us
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without college degrees, who just really understand the
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dynamics, or, as I like to describe it, the constellation
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of variables around a given issue.
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Right? And what is the gravity of those
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variables and how do they wind up impacting one another?
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What are the unintended consequences, hypothetically, of
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those things? And again, sort of navigating
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that path, building a strategy, and then deciding which tactics
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work to achieve the end goal. Again, it can be everything from
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legislative policy all the way down to campaign work, and it
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just sort of depends on what the issue at hand is.
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The question James I was going to ask was almost the same.
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How do lobbyists differ from lawyers?
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So I'll take your case. You deal with realtor, home
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builders and so forth. If I'm an individual and I've
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got a problem with my HOA, they're, you know, getting
17:34
intrusive. Correct me if I'm wrong.
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If I go to a lawyer, the lawyers going to say, OK, here's what
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you can and cannot do within the scope of the law.
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If I come to you, you're going to say here's what we can do to
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help change the law to make your situation better.
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Well, maybe, and that's actually the answer there.
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You know, one of you were to come to me and say you have a
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problem with your HOA. The very first thing I'm going
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to do is I want to see your CC and Rs or sorry, I'm blanking on
18:00
the acronym here. It's essentially the document
18:03
that defines what the HOA can and cannot do.
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And you know, that's the first thing that I'm going to look at.
18:09
It's not the law. It's always the community
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documents that we want to see first because that's going to
18:13
define what are the limitations of the HOA and what are not.
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And then based upon that, we then know, OK, either you have
18:21
very stringent community documents or you don't.
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And if you don't, there's question of latitude, you know,
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what is the HOA actually allowed to do and what are they not?
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Then the question becomes, what is the matter of law, right?
18:34
And what is the matter of law, say, does it tell the community
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they can do to X wires, right? You know, the one you hear about
18:39
all the time and really stringent communities and this
18:42
is pretty entertaining, which is Ken Jack hang an American flag
18:46
off the front porch of his home in a community.
18:50
Well, you know, depending on which flag you want to hang,
18:53
whether it be NASCAR pride flag or an American flag or don't
18:57
tread on me, you know, everybody's going to have a
18:59
different opinion based on their own personal issues, right?
19:02
And this is where, you know, someone like me comes in.
19:05
You know, funny enough, this has already been fought by the
19:07
Supreme Court. It's already been made a
19:08
decision. These are things that in certain
19:10
respects, like you cannot restrict somebody from hanging
19:12
an American flag off their front porch.
19:14
However, you could start to restrict other types of things.
19:17
And there's a lot of variables there that have to be gone
19:19
through to make those decisions. So, and any good lawyer is going
19:22
to know that, right? So to go back to your question,
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you know, they're not always going to say, let's go change
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the law. They're going to go through
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pretty much the same process. Let's look at your community
19:30
documents. Let's see what they say.
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Let's understand what the restrictions are.
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And then let's make a decision on how we have to go about
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things in that example, by and large, how you would go through
19:39
that process. So do you have to be licensed to
19:42
be a lobbyist? There are registration
19:44
requirements in most States and some local municipalities, and
19:47
there are at the federal level as well.
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You know, it's really funny for our clients.
19:50
When I was working for the Realtor association, we were
19:52
dealing with realtor members, You know, we had to define for
19:55
them. A lot of times it's like, look,
19:56
when you're sitting down with the elected official in their
19:58
office, you are lobbying them, right?
20:00
But you're doing it as a constituent.
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When you do it professionally, you're getting paid for it.
20:03
You know, you have to declare that.
20:05
And so depending on the communities that you're working
20:08
in or the states that you're working in, there are rules that
20:10
guide what that looks like. And then there are reporting
20:13
requirements for us as far as what our activity is.
20:16
Most states, even at the federal level have really stringent
20:20
requirements on things like gift laws.
20:22
You know, that's often one of the.
20:24
Wild misconceptions that is out there about lobbyists.
20:27
You know, we're just kind of paying for everything and taking
20:29
everybody big expensive dinners. And the reality is as most
20:31
elected officials can't accept those things anymore.
20:34
And so a lot of times we are trying to build relationships
20:39
with these individuals outside of work events so that we can
20:42
get to know one another and have confidence in one another.
20:45
A great example would be hypothetically, one of you is a
20:49
state legislator, either a member of the House or to the
20:52
Assembly or the Senate here in Arizona, let's say, and you're
20:55
big on housing. And James is not.
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I'm going to do everything I can to try and build a relationship
20:59
with you. You know, I'll attend
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fundraising events on your behalf.
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I'll do whatever I can to sort of build a relationship, go have
21:06
a coffee, whatever within the letter of the law in hopes that,
21:09
you know, we can work together down the road to solve problems
21:12
that we agree upon. You know, that's sort of one
21:14
other aspect of what lobbyists do is, you know, we're really,
21:18
really good at making friends with people, with other groups,
21:22
and more importantly, laying our personal politics to the side.
21:24
Can't say that for everybody, but, you know, for myself and
21:27
for many of my peers and colleagues, we really do try and
21:29
put politics aside because our personal politics don't matter
21:32
when we're working for someone. And it's understanding that and
21:36
understanding the variables that do matter to people so that we
21:38
can start to identify, to fight who is going to be a supporter
21:40
and who is not of a given issue. You're painting a very different
21:43
picture than I have. When I think of lobbyists as I
21:46
guess most people do, You think of somebody who's out there
21:49
representing big Pharma and, you know, having cigars with the
21:53
representatives. You're painting a picture of
21:55
lobbyists for the individual guy also.
21:58
Oh yeah, I know 100%. They're lobbyists for the
22:00
individual guy. And look, like I'm not going to
22:02
say cigars doesn't happen with an elected leader, you know,
22:04
like, you know, you're going to share a drink and you're going
22:05
to share a cigar and a meal and things like that.
22:08
But it's really like getting to know them.
22:09
One of the things that I have to applaud the Realtor association
22:12
about is the way in which they engage their members with
22:15
elected leaders. They have points of contact
22:17
within a legislative district and Realtors, they're everyday
22:22
people, you know, by and large, and they're very good at paying
22:25
attention to details. And one of the best examples
22:28
that I heard actually recently was a woman out in California
22:31
had become friends with an elected leader, not over
22:33
anything housing related, but because she had been a foster
22:37
parent. And then this elected leader had
22:39
also become a foster parent. And so they were able to share
22:42
that story with one another. And I want to pause here for a
22:45
second because I think that's something that winds up getting
22:46
lost on the average person is that elected individuals are no
22:50
different than you and I. You know, they still have to go
22:52
to bed at night. They still have to eat 3 squares
22:54
a day. They still have to put their
22:55
pants on one leg at a time. But we forget that because, you
22:58
know, they were willing to put themselves out there and become
23:00
elected officials. And there does have to be, no
23:03
matter what, I mean, business in politics and everything, there
23:06
does have to be a human side of it.
23:08
And so you don't always have to just go for the jugular.
23:11
And it's not the thank you for smoking, you know, movie
23:15
reference of what people think lobbyists are at the end of
23:17
today. You know, I could make friends
23:19
with the wall if I really needed to.
23:21
That stupefied look on ants face indicates that it's my turn.
23:27
One of the things that people complain about, and I think both
23:31
rightfully and incorrectly, is that legislators, upon quitting
23:36
or losing, go right to K St. become lobbyists.
23:40
And what do lobbyists do? They draft legislation for other
23:45
legislators. All right, that sounds a little
23:47
incestuous, and yet I can see it.
23:51
So which of my two instincts is correct?
23:54
I think both in a roundabout way, one of the things that
23:58
makes government and politics and legislative policy really
24:01
challenging is just the very complex nature of it.
24:03
Right there is identifying the problem, there is drafting
24:06
legislation, there is the entire process that goes into the draft
24:11
to the final bill, and then there's the implementation
24:13
process on the back end side. So in reality, there's probably
24:16
about three points where we can start to identify points of
24:19
impact and where you can start to influence the outcome of
24:22
something or really create a viable solution for specific
24:27
problem. And it's understanding and it's
24:29
navigating that and, you know, going back to your initial
24:32
assessment of legislators, you know, immediately going to K St.
24:35
there's a ton of value in understanding the process and
24:38
understanding where you can effectively influence the
24:41
process because sometimes it'll save a ton of money, sometimes
24:45
it'll save just a lot of time knowing where to go.
24:48
I'll use an example of issues with like the National Flood
24:51
Insurance program, because insurance is this sort of
24:53
gigantic issue across the country at the moment.
24:55
On the NFIP side of things, National Flood Insurance
24:57
Program, you know, a lot of times it's through the
25:00
administration of the program that we find the most challenges
25:03
with it. And so yes, we could go create a
25:06
bill, but often times it's easier to go work with the
25:08
agency to understand what the variable is, what's the problem,
25:12
And then they may know that problem internally and they may
25:15
need your support to change that issue legislatively, right?
25:19
And just it, it, it really just boils down to sort of what it
25:22
is. And that's kind of figuring out
25:24
the navigation of it. And again, elected leaders
25:27
walking out of Congress, walking out of, you know, local
25:29
municipal offices and whatnot, you know, they understand the
25:32
process. They understand the people who
25:34
are administering the programs and services.
25:36
And there's a ton of value there.
25:37
And so whether people like it or not, understanding how to
25:42
navigate that system and more importantly, having contacts
25:45
that can help you navigate that system, it is a saleable
25:48
service. It's a skill set.
25:50
Now the question becomes, is that individual an expert in
25:54
that particular field? And this is where it gets the
25:57
sort of the second part of your question, which is, you know,
25:59
the role lobbyists play in drafting legislation.
26:03
It happens enough to say that lobbyists help in writing
26:06
policy. The reason for that is often in
26:09
almost always because they are an industry expert in that given
26:12
issue. You know, again, sort of using
26:14
my experience at the Realtors, there was the side of the
26:17
lobbying team that went and worked directly with Capitol
26:20
Hill and then there was the side of the lobbying team that were
26:23
just issue experts, you know, on things like taxation, insurance,
26:27
housing finance, etcetera, right?
26:29
And it just sort of runs the gambit.
26:31
The lobbyists, their job is to have the relationships, to be
26:34
able to get the door open. The policy people, it's to be
26:37
able to come in and define for them where is this piece of
26:40
legislation going right or going wrong in really, what is the
26:43
unintended consequence of what it is you're proposing?
26:46
That's where they wind up having the most value.
26:47
And I know a number of my colleagues that have provided
26:51
draft policy that, you know, a legislator has to look at.
26:54
It's still got to go through the same internal vetting process
26:56
through Congress and at the state and local level as well.
26:59
And then if it fits in the mold of what they're dealing with,
27:02
they feel it's good, you know, federal policy or state and
27:05
local policy, you know, it can get incorporated into the bill.
27:07
And I know plenty of examples of that.
27:09
And so, you know, in reality, you know, you're just having
27:13
experts, right? It would be, you know, if you're
27:15
developing some new pharmaceutical drug, you know,
27:17
are you going to listen to Jack who's got a background in real
27:19
estate and real estate policy and issues?
27:22
Or are you going to go talk to a doctor or, you know, a scientist
27:26
to say, you know, research scientist to say, is this right?
27:30
I'm going to be inclined to go talk to the researcher or to the
27:32
doctor to say what are the implications of this?
27:35
But I will say every good policy usually backed by really good
27:39
data. And that is something that I
27:42
think really helps us bridge the gap between sort of the partisan
27:45
divide that exists. Because when you can come to the
27:47
table with data, it just sort of takes the inherent politics that
27:51
may exist completely off the table to say we should do this
27:54
first. That, and here's reasons why.
27:56
I just want to know if there is a such thing.
27:59
Jack is an average day. No.
28:01
Well, you know, average days are picking up the phones and
28:04
talking with your clients and helping them understand.
28:06
But no, I mean, right now, you know, at the moment I can kind
28:10
of tell you what I'm working through.
28:12
I'm working with a lot of communities, particularly
28:14
destination markets, places like the Aspen, Tahoe, Sun Valley,
28:18
ID, Sedona, you know, they're all working through in evolution
28:23
in their communities, right. Amanda Line sort of make it a
28:27
little redundant from Ben Franklin, which he very famously
28:30
said there are two certainties in life, death and taxes.
28:32
And my opinion, you have to dumb it down a little bit to make
28:35
people realize, but you know, it's really depth changing.
28:37
Taxes and communities across the country are evolving.
28:40
They're growing at an exponential rate.
28:42
You look at NAR statistics at the moment, they're estimating
28:44
that we need to develop 7 million homes tomorrow to put
28:48
everybody in housing and bring the overall cost of housing
28:50
down. And it's considerably high right
28:52
now and it's almost doubled over the last since 2020.
28:55
And so as a result of that, purchasing a home is very
28:58
unaffordable. And when you get to destination
29:01
marketplaces, you know, one of the variables that they're
29:04
dealing with is that like the country of Greece, you know,
29:06
they have a single factor economy, it's tourism.
29:09
And so as a result, you have a lot of second homeowners.
29:11
And that without getting into this wild argument, you know,
29:15
kind of in their perception displaces what could be primary
29:18
residence no matter what, they're always going to be about
29:20
40% secondary homeowners. But back in the early 2000s with
29:24
the advent of the, you know, sort of share economy and Airbnb
29:29
and BRBO coming on board and roughly about 2007 now they have
29:34
short term rental issues. And, you know, short term
29:37
rentals have always existed in those communities, but they
29:39
really kind of sprung up because it went from a boutique cottage
29:42
industry now to anybody with an Internet access and a keyboard
29:46
can have access to it. And their perception is that
29:49
this is the reason housing prices in our communities have
29:51
increased exponentially. And this is the reason the
29:55
barista at the coffee shop and, you know, the cashier at the
29:58
grocery store can't afford to buy home.
29:59
And it in that is anything but the truth.
30:02
There are a lot of factors that wind up dictating housing
30:05
prices. You know, obviously unemployment
30:07
being a big one. Medium home income is another
30:10
one. Just interest rates, you know,
30:12
wind up having huge implication on all of these variables.
30:14
And so on any given day right now, I'm conducting research,
30:18
talking to like officials, trying to bring them to the
30:20
table to let them understand sort of like look here, all of
30:23
variables. And then, you know, sort of
30:25
walking in through all the data to show them what you believe is
30:30
just not supported in the data. And it's interesting because
30:33
there's sort of two responses. It's either you don't know what
30:36
you're talking about, that is just an absolute rebuttal of the
30:39
data to say it's not actually correct or how do we solve this?
30:44
And that's the most interesting 1 and that's the one
30:46
conversation I like that because those individuals actually
30:49
understand the data matters, right?
30:51
I'm going to steal a line from one of my colleagues.
30:52
And God we trust for all others bring data.
30:55
They see the data, they understand that the data is
30:57
right, and more importantly, they want to sort of resolve the
31:00
problem. The issue becomes how do you, in
31:04
their perception, regulate an industry that they feel is
31:07
ruining their community? And the reality is it's not.
31:11
If you wanted to regulate it, you needed to do it 25 years
31:15
ago. That ship has sailed.
31:17
Now the implications of what they're proposing, most of them,
31:21
the vast majority of these policies, sort of licensing,
31:24
taxation, you know, bed taxes, things like that have very
31:27
little negative impact. But then they start getting
31:30
into, you know, sort of limiting the total number of short term
31:33
rentals within the community and are outright banning them.
31:36
And that's when the data just becomes it's undeniable, like
31:40
the implications are property values will fall off the face of
31:43
planet that that's a bit of more exaggeration.
31:46
But if you start regulating these communities, you know,
31:48
you'll see price drops somewhere between 25 and 30%.
31:50
And that's just not for the short term rental that you're
31:54
regulating. That's the entire community.
31:56
And that creates its own host of challenges because, you know,
31:59
there's plenty of data out there to show the vast majority of
32:01
people their wealth resides in the value of their property.
32:05
And so when you're looking at doing something that's going to
32:07
impact someone's net worth by 30%, you're waking people up to
32:11
a more dynamic conversation. And some people are prepared to
32:14
have that conversation and some are not.
32:16
Before we close, one thing you said early on piqued my
32:20
interest. You said you've worked with both
32:22
Democratic and Republican lawmakers, and you found one not
32:28
better, not worse than the other.
32:30
They're both just people trying to do their thing.
32:32
Do you? I'm going to ask if you perceive
32:35
a difference, and I don't mean a difference in terms of higher
32:37
quality, lower quality, but just in approaches in how they go
32:41
about making laws, how they think about the law.
32:45
Yeah, Well, what's the best way to how to describe this?
32:48
The approach to public policy is as very as the opinions that
32:51
people have. I think that's the easiest way
32:53
to describe that when you look at the average American voter.
32:56
Pew Research does a lot of really good data on this and
32:59
they update this, I think bi weekly.
33:01
They look at the American electorate and then they define
33:04
them under Republican or Democrat, right?
33:06
And arguably, you would say, you know, we're somewhere in the
33:10
world of 5050. And what a lot of people don't
33:13
realize is that partisan identification in the last
33:17
decade and maybe a little more, maybe the last 20 years has been
33:20
at its lowest overall percentages in history, right?
33:23
When I say by that, it's like the people who absolutely say
33:25
I'm a Democrat are 30%. People who say I'm absolutely
33:28
Republican are round about 30%. And then you've got this 40% in
33:32
the middle that are some variation of independently
33:35
minded individuals who lean right or left.
33:38
And then you've got this tiny, tiny, tiny sliver that is.
33:41
And you know, I think it's less than 10% stay.
33:45
I am absolutely independent. I don't care about your party
33:47
whatsoever. Generally speaking, most elected
33:49
officials fall into that 40% bucket in my experience.
33:53
And then you have the firebrands on both sides.
33:56
And those are the ones who become stringent to whatever you
34:02
can get your constitutionalists, you can get, you know, your
34:04
progressives and it just doesn't matter.
34:06
But they will blindly run to the right or to the left based on
34:09
where those things are. And that's where data comes in.
34:12
It helps the conversation because you can kind of navigate
34:15
that path. But when you start dealing with
34:17
the policy side of it, and I mean, and you can see it, you
34:19
know, the firebrands are the ones that make the headlines,
34:22
you know, the ones that are really doing the work or kind of
34:24
the 40% in the middle. And James and I've had this
34:27
conversation many times, you know, any good level of public
34:30
policy, nobody gets everything that they want.
34:33
They get enough to feel like they've succeeded.
34:35
And it really is trying to figure out in the middle really
34:41
who you can bring to the table. And that plays out in campaigns
34:44
and politics all the time. You know, when I go out and I
34:47
look at a Congressional District or municipal district and I see
34:50
the party lines, it's, you know, in some cases, I know how people
34:54
are going to behave just on how they identify as a political
34:58
party. But you're really kind of
34:59
fighting over those independence when you get into these swing
35:02
states where, you know, suddenly it's like you have far more
35:05
voters who can be influenced. And so it's really what matters.
35:08
But yeah, there's a ton of variation.
35:11
Some of it's good, some of it's bad.
35:12
Not all attorneys make good legislators.
35:14
Not all attorneys make good lobbyists and vice versa.
35:18
You know, I think Barack Obama is a community organizer.
35:20
He is a lawyer as well. But there's a lot of those folks
35:23
out there. AOC, you know, she's a community
35:25
organizer. And now she's a member of
35:27
Congress. You know, what drives her is
35:29
very different than what's going to drive a doctor or a
35:31
businessman or woman. It's understanding those
35:34
variables and making sure that when I approach them, you know,
35:37
my talking points are going to hit home for them 100%.
35:40
So, and and that becomes more important the more localized to
35:46
get, because you could wind up having a former New York City
35:49
police officer as a mayor. In one case, that's actually
35:52
what I'm dealing with. And so nice guy sometimes, but
35:55
other times it's just really challenging because, you know,
35:58
he just doesn't understand the information around the
36:01
particular issue at hand. So it changes quite a bit.
36:05
So if I'm a regular person and I've listened to this episode
36:09
and occurs to me I've got a problem, and maybe I don't need
36:11
a lawyer, I need a lobbyist, what do I do?
36:14
Where do I go to find Someone Like You?
36:16
Well, you can go to our website which is a e.g.
36:19
Pa.com. We'll put that in a link in the
36:22
show notes. But here's the thing.
36:24
If I know that I've got some issue with housing and so I need
36:28
Someone Like You, that's fine. But what if I've just got some
36:32
problem? I don't know what basket it
36:33
falls into. I have no idea what lobbyists to
36:36
call. Is there something like a
36:37
General practitioner in lobbying?
36:40
There are specialized groups, there are generalists, you know,
36:42
which is probably what I would bucket myself into.
36:45
We can work on any varied number of issues and really it's an
36:48
exercise in breaking it down. If anybody is listening to this
36:51
at home, the thing that I would tell them is if you have an
36:53
issue, the very first thing you need to go do is research that
36:56
issue, right? You need to know where the issue
36:58
start, where is it today, how it's evolved during that time
37:02
period, What kind of data is out there, right?
37:04
There may be economic data, there may be polling data,
37:06
public opinion data, right? And there's lots of resources
37:09
for that online. It's not hard to find in a
37:10
Google search. And that will give them a
37:14
starting point to understand the dynamic that's out there.
37:17
You know, you can literally just type in the issue and do a
37:19
Google search and you'll probably get more information
37:21
you're prepared to read. And then at that point you can
37:24
start to identify, OK, where do I go and how do I get involved?
37:27
Because the likelihood that what you perceive to be an issue is
37:30
already being carried by somebody else is probably 100%.
37:34
It's just figuring out whether or not you align with the view
37:38
and solving that problem. And that's always the question.
37:40
And then you know, sort of, you know, what is the attitude, but
37:43
there are always interest groups out there and you know, some of
37:45
them community organized, fire, mental, you know, whatever,
37:49
right, you can find it. But that's why I would always
37:51
encourage everybody to go do their own education because
37:54
again, coming to the table with an emotional argument is a
37:57
challenging way to build policy. Coming to the table with an
37:59
educated argument about here are the variables that I'm dealing
38:02
with in my community. Here's what the data tells me
38:04
about that variable within my community and whether or not
38:07
it's broad enough that we need legislative policy to solve it.
38:10
Sometimes it's just you need to change staff.
38:13
You need to change like the leaders.
38:15
Sometimes it's, you know, we have to diversify our economy.
38:18
We have to start doing other things.
38:20
There's lots of ways to kind of skin the cat, if you will.
38:23
And it's just trying to figure out what that is and more
38:26
importantly, where the information can come from.
38:28
But everybody can become their own advocate.
38:30
It's not something exclusive to professionals like myself.
38:33
Jack, thanks for joining us today.
38:35
Is there any way people can check out the things you do?
38:38
You got a website to plug? Yeah.
38:40
So my business partners and I, we work for a company called AEG
38:43
Policy Advisors. You're wondering what the
38:44
initials are. There are my sons initials
38:46
because I left the company to spend more time with him.
38:49
We have a website, itsaegpa.com. We try not to put too much out
38:52
there regarding you know, sort of what our clients are dealing
38:55
with because often times that can wind up becoming
38:57
proprietary. But if people have questions or
38:59
they're looking for direction, we're happy to advise them.
39:02
Jack, thanks for coming by. It's been great.
39:06
And that's all the time we've got this week on words and
39:08
numbers. Until next time.
39:10
Send us e-mail wordsandnumberspodcast@gmail.com.
39:13
Try to be nice to one person who doesn't deserve it till next
39:17
week, can't take it. Easy.
39:17
See you next week, James.