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Trump Davos Address, US Jobless Claims · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the
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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
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  Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
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  Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
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  Speaker 2: That was President Trump speaking virtually to the crowd at
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  Speaker 2: Davos in the World Economic for Borger Brende, He's a
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  Speaker 2: president of the World Economic Form. Kind of moderating that.
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  Speaker 2: Brian Mornihan, Bank of America, Blackstone, Stephen Schwartzman, Vaco Santander's
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  Speaker 2: on a boutein and total Energies. Patrick Puyan po any,
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  Speaker 2: thank you very much asking questions. So we kind of
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  Speaker 2: spirited back and forth there. Let's get a little bit
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  Speaker 2: of a breakdown kind of what we just heard over
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  Speaker 2: the last forty five fifty minutes. We can do that
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  Speaker 2: with Nick Wadams. He is a US national security reporter
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  Speaker 2: for Bloomberg News based down in Washington, DC. Nick, anything
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  Speaker 2: new for you in President Trump's.
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  Speaker 3: Remarks, Well, to me, what you just saw there was
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  Speaker 3: a president who was in almost complete control, I mean
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  Speaker 3: a just an extraordinary moment. The amount of deference from
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  Speaker 3: these titans of industry from around the globe, essentially giving
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  Speaker 3: the President everything he wants. I mean, Brian and Brian moynihan,
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  Speaker 3: they're dodging. The President criticizes Bank of America for allegedly
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  Speaker 3: not banking conservatives, and Brian moynihan just kind of takes
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  Speaker 3: it and says, thank you, and hey, we're getting ready
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  Speaker 3: to sponsor the Olympics. Trump demands OPEC lower prices, increased output.
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  Speaker 3: He tells everybody, listen, if you want to build in
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  Speaker 3: the US, that's great. Otherwise we're going to tear a few.
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  Speaker 3: And the response is essentially applause. So an extraordinary, extraordinary
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  Speaker 3: dynamic where you just sort of see the degree to
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  Speaker 3: which global the real power players who are all collected
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  Speaker 3: in Davos there are giving him an extraordinary amount of deference.
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  Speaker 4: We were talking to Nathan dena Bloomberg Intelligence before about
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  Speaker 4: last two hours and said that he was looking for
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  Speaker 4: the confrontational or negotiator President Trump if we parse him
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  Speaker 4: in those ways, which Trump did you just see?
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  Speaker 3: I mean, sounded pretty confrontational to me, essentially saying listen,
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  Speaker 3: if you don't build here, we're going to Jack Tariff's
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  Speaker 3: up on all of you. He criticized the EU. He
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  Speaker 3: takes a quick shot at Bank of America. He goes
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  Speaker 3: after Opek. He also tells a story which is not
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  Speaker 3: one hundred percent true on the issue of denuclearization that
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  Speaker 3: part at the end, talks with Russia and especially China
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  Speaker 3: were essentially at a standstill at the end of his
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  Speaker 3: first administration on the idea of denuclearization. So very much
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  Speaker 3: in keeping with the president where he is obviously in
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  Speaker 3: his MILU feels very comfortable but has no qualms about
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  Speaker 3: being extremely confrontational, presumably in part because he knows the
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  Speaker 3: response he's going to get, which is essentially applause and
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  Speaker 3: in some cases a little bit of awkward laughter. But
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  Speaker 3: there at the end a hope that he'll come in
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  Speaker 3: person next year.
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  Speaker 2: Nick. A lot of questions on Ukraine and the ability
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  Speaker 2: of the US to play a role in ending that conflict.
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  Speaker 5: Here, what's the.
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  Speaker 2: Feeling within your realm national security about the role the
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  Speaker 2: US can play, and maybe the timing associated with him.
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  Speaker 3: Well, the timing is obviously quite unclear. The President had
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  Speaker 3: said before he came into office that this was something
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  Speaker 3: he was going to be able to do to solve
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  Speaker 3: before inauguration day or within twenty four hours. That obviously
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  Speaker 3: hasn't happened. What we've understood is that officials within the
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  Speaker 3: administration are recognizing the enormity of the task and that
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  Speaker 3: it may take some time. And that was one element
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  Speaker 3: I thought was quite interesting from President Trump where he
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  Speaker 3: essentially said, there, listen, this is something that is the
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  Speaker 3: ball is in President Putin's court, you know, saying Ukraine
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  Speaker 3: is ready to come to the table, so he can
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  Speaker 3: act very much as a point of leverage and a
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  Speaker 3: pressure point. But whereas before the inauguration there was a
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  Speaker 3: lot of focus on Ukraine and his transition team saying
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  Speaker 3: really that Ukraine needed to come to the table, they're
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  Speaker 3: now really trying to put the pressure on Vladimir Putin.
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  Speaker 3: So though he's essentially saying he wants to talk to Putin,
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  Speaker 3: he respects him. I did see some more pressure there
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  Speaker 3: that this is really in Russia's court to kickstart the negotiations,
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  Speaker 3: but in terms of timing, they're really not willing to
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  Speaker 3: say at this point.
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  Speaker 4: I was really struck by how much energy took center stage.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, clearly total CEO is there. So that was
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  Speaker 4: definitely part of it. But there were some clear statements made.
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  Speaker 4: He will make sure that Europe gets US L and G.
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  Speaker 4: He talked about coal. He did say clean coal, but
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  Speaker 4: that that was going to be a backup for generation
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  Speaker 4: Peabody Energy, which is a coal producer, spiking on that news.
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  Speaker 4: Europeans hate coal, So that was like something that was
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  Speaker 4: a pretty interesting moment in your world. Nick, how much
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  Speaker 4: of an energy analyst do you have to become if
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  Speaker 4: you're national security and now you have President Trump in office.
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  Speaker 3: I would say that's going to be a huge priority
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  Speaker 3: for all of us going forward. I mean, you know,
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  Speaker 3: in some ways, it's really no surprise the president is
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  Speaker 3: essentially repeating elements, sometimes word for word, of his campaign speech.
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  Speaker 3: I don't think he mentioned his dislike for windmills there,
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  Speaker 3: but he has taken a bunch of actions already to
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  Speaker 3: essentially try to steer US energy production away from renewables.
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  Speaker 3: You know, this really is at the center of his
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  Speaker 3: campaign and his ethos, that he believes the US needs
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  Speaker 3: to increase energy production, and it really speaks to his
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  Speaker 3: sense of what the US role is in the world
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  Speaker 3: as a provider of energy to other countries. He really
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  Speaker 3: sees it as as a point of leverage for the
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  Speaker 3: United States, and that's something he's going to double down on,
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  Speaker 3: you can be certain in the years to come.
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  Speaker 2: And Nick Nac. Surprisingly, President Trump also brought up the
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  Speaker 2: issue of immigration, illegal immigration in the United States and
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  Speaker 2: perhaps deportations. What do we know at this early stage
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  Speaker 2: about the plans of this administration to implement maybe some
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  Speaker 2: deportation measures to what except will National Guard or even
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  Speaker 2: active duty troops be involved, if at all.
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  Speaker 3: Well, the US is in the process of deploying about
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  Speaker 3: fifteen hundred troops to the border, though it's unclear what
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  Speaker 3: exactly their role will be. The President has also sought
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  Speaker 3: to give more authority to various government agents around the country,
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  Speaker 3: and we do have reports coming in that some of
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  Speaker 3: those arrests and have basically already started, So I mean,
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  Speaker 3: he is absolutely determined to do this. We've heard today
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  Speaker 3: that Secretary of State Mark Rubio is in fact going
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  Speaker 3: to be going to several Central American countries in his
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  Speaker 3: first trip. And the point there really is to have
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  Speaker 3: conversations and say, listen, okay, we want to kick these
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  Speaker 3: people out. They have to go someplace, they have to
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  Speaker 3: have a place to go. The planes need to fly somewhere,
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  Speaker 3: So where is that going to be a lot of
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  Speaker 3: focus right now on El Salvador, Guatemala, obviously, but this
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  Speaker 3: is one of the top two or three priorities for
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  Speaker 3: this administration, proceeding with those deportations and finding places that
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  Speaker 3: will receive those people. So negotiations are fully underway on
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  Speaker 3: that score.
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  Speaker 2: All right, Nick, thank you so much. We appreciate that.
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  Speaker 2: Nick Wadams, US National Security team leader for Bloomberg News,
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  Speaker 2: just give us a little recap of the comments we
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  Speaker 2: heard from President Trump, who spoke virtually to the audience
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  Speaker 2: at the World Economic Forum in Davost.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the program
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  Speaker 4: Now, speaking of we had initial jobless claims, the continuing
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  Speaker 4: claims rising to I think it was like a three
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  Speaker 4: month high, but that's going to be distorted quite a
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  Speaker 4: lot by those LA wildfires. So Michael McKee is joining
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  Speaker 4: us Boomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent, How did the
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  Speaker 4: do we know how the LA fires have now affected
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  Speaker 4: the readings for jabas claims?
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  Speaker 5: Well, we have a rough idea. The number for California
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  Speaker 5: jobas claims last week was up by seven thousand, which
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  Speaker 5: doesn't seem like a lot. But the week before which
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  Speaker 5: the fires were in that week as well were up
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  Speaker 5: by thirteen thousand, So you've got a number of people
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  Speaker 5: who have contributed to this slight rise we've seen in
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  Speaker 5: initial jobs claims slide. It's two twenty three, up from
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  Speaker 5: two seventeen, and most states saw declines. Now we're in
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  Speaker 5: the holiday distortion period as well, so it's hard to
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  Speaker 5: get a clear read on what all this means. You
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  Speaker 5: reference the continuing claims up to one million, eight hundred
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  Speaker 5: ninety nine thousand. That's getting a little bit of a
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  Speaker 5: boost from the California fires because the people who that
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  Speaker 5: thirteen thousand who filed two weeks ago are still on
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  Speaker 5: the rolls. But what that's kind of telling us is
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  Speaker 5: something also that we already knew that companies they may
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  Speaker 5: not be letting people go, but they're not hiring either.
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  Speaker 2: We're going to hear from President Trump's speech virtual speech
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  Speaker 2: in Davos and just about a half an hour as
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  Speaker 2: per schedule, expecting economic topics to be discussed from the President.
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  Speaker 4: Well, you know, it is the World Economics, it is
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  Speaker 4: the World Economic Forum, but it is Donald Trump.
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  Speaker 5: So it's really hard to know exactly what he's going
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  Speaker 5: to say. But you can bet that the audience of
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  Speaker 5: CEOs is going to be sitting there anxiously awaiting to
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  Speaker 5: see if he might say something about tariffs. That's from
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  Speaker 5: what I can glean of the Davos coverage, that seems
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  Speaker 5: to be the number one concern of people in Davos.
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  Speaker 5: They're also looking for more talk about deregulation because they
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  Speaker 5: feel that's an important thing for them, and so those
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  Speaker 5: two would be the subjects I think would get the
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  Speaker 5: most attention from the audience.
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  Speaker 4: What are you working on right now at your desk?
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: So here's the thing with Mike. He'll sit at his
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: desk and he'll tinker. He'll read the most random reports.
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  Speaker 4: Then he'll make all these tie ins and link the
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  Speaker 4: nice theses together and I'll send it to me and
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: be like, look at this, and then we'll talk about
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: it on an email. What are you going to send
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: me in like an hour.
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: Well, I've been putting together a couple of things today.
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: I'm looking at the overall change in auto imports from
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: Canada and Mexico since the USMCA, the replacement for NAFTA
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: came in to be, which was July first in twenty twenty,
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  Speaker 5: and you can see it's it's quite interesting the trade
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  Speaker 5: balance between the countries. Our trade deficit widened with Mexico
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  Speaker 5: and Canada Mexico somewhat significantly, but at the same time,
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  Speaker 5: over that period, the trade balance with China shrink So
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  Speaker 5: you know, it's still too big for Donald Trump's liking,
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  Speaker 5: obviously from what he says. But what we're seeing in
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: terms of the cross border Canada Mexico stuff is that
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  Speaker 5: you know, we're importing more things from them.
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  Speaker 2: Is that the friend shoring impact? Do you think a
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  Speaker 2: little bit?
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: A lot of that's the friend shoring impact and the
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  Speaker 5: fact that wages and costs so much lower in Mexico.
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: So with a free trade agreement, it's been easy for companies,
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  Speaker 5: particularly auto companies, to move production to Mexico and then
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  Speaker 5: just import those cars because it doesn't cost them anything.
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: So oil, our biggest importer of oil is Canada. They
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: import our oil either way around, we import there. We
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: still import a bunch of oil, and our biggest trading
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  Speaker 4: partner for that is Canada, so that's also a big
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  Speaker 4: one there.
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  Speaker 5: That's gonna be interesting.
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  Speaker 1: Oh, I know question.
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  Speaker 4: We'll talk about that.
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  Speaker 5: Later the Canadians actually do.
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  Speaker 4: Something about that, all right, Mike, Thanks lot. Mike McKee,
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: Bloomberg International Economics and Policy correspondent on the nerdy things
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: that he is looking at.
• 12:26
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  Speaker 2: Alex Stel, Paul Swenyer live here in our Bloomberg Interactive
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  Speaker 2: So head over YouTube dot com search Bloomberg Podcast Live
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: and that's the easy way to find this. Donald Trump
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: self proclaimed greatest friend to the crypto space, Elon Musk
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: in his inner circle. That's got to help. What does
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: that mean for the crypto space over the next several years.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: Aisha Kiani joints the chief Operating officer for m n
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: n C Group. She joins us here in our Bloomberg
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: Interactive Broker studio. Your community, the crypto community, are you
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: enthused about having President Donald Trump back in the White House?
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: Is it positive for the crypto world or not so much?
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Or is it too early to tell?
• 13:23
  Speaker 6: Too early to tell? So it's been both mixed signals.
• 13:27
  Speaker 6: We obviously he's made the right moves with you know,
• 13:30
  Speaker 6: a task force at SEC, with you know, the right
• 13:33
  Speaker 6: CEA of TC chairman. Yes, all of those are uh,
• 13:37
  Speaker 6: you know, the right moves and the moves we you know,
• 13:38
  Speaker 6: we've been anticipating. But what happened over the weekend was
• 13:42
  Speaker 6: that Trump launched his own meme coin and wait.
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  Speaker 2: You famouses Okay, yeah, you missed it. Missed you missed it.
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  Speaker 6: Everyone missed it other than us, the industry folks and we,
• 13:52
  Speaker 6: you know, we were basically like, what is happening? And
• 13:54
  Speaker 6: then Milania launched a trump coin on Sunday night?
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  Speaker 5: Nice?
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: What does that mean? To launch a coin?
• 14:00
  Speaker 6: You just go on So in this case, you go
• 14:04
  Speaker 6: on Solana's blockchain and you launch a coin.
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna launch a steal coin.
• 14:08
  Speaker 6: Steal yeah, yeah, yes, does it trade yes, it does
• 14:12
  Speaker 6: it It tads and trades in crypto markets at a
• 14:15
  Speaker 6: crazy centralize value today. I mean combined both of the
• 14:19
  Speaker 6: coins had of a combined value of forty billion at
• 14:21
  Speaker 6: a pointy billion with the Bee big forty billion with
• 14:24
  Speaker 6: the Bee.
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  Speaker 1: Yes.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, So help us understand football this weekend?
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  Speaker 5: It wasn't you were not.
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: Focused on that? Yeah, help us understand like the meme
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: coin situation and all the frath versus the reality of
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: crypto changing under Trump administration.
• 14:40
  Speaker 6: I would call meme coins the froth right, and that
• 14:44
  Speaker 6: is not that's a very bad look on us, and
• 14:47
  Speaker 6: that's a very bad institutional look of the entire industry.
• 14:50
  Speaker 6: That's something you know, we do not support. What you
• 14:53
  Speaker 6: know we're here to support is Bitcoin eat Solana as
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: like the real assets, so the real tech. But but
• 15:00
  Speaker 6: if you're just going to go launch a coin raise
• 15:03
  Speaker 6: So I wanted to bring like mention the stats here
• 15:06
  Speaker 6: today because Shane Analysis just ran the research report yesterday.
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: So fifty percent of Trump and Millennia had never bought
• 15:15
  Speaker 6: a Solana alts coin before. Forty seven percent of buyers
• 15:19
  Speaker 6: created their wallets the same day they purchased the tokens
• 15:23
  Speaker 6: and then eighty three percent of the holder's own sub
• 15:27
  Speaker 6: one thousand dollars of Solana assets. So he onboarded this
• 15:31
  Speaker 6: many people on Solana's blockchain for the ecosystem.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: So is that I mean, and the suggestion is they
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: these for lack of a better word, investors don't really
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: we'd have no idea to know who they are or
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: maybe help educated they are.
• 15:48
  Speaker 6: Exactly right, Like, what's what's the value? What's the intrinsic value? Right,
• 15:53
  Speaker 6: if you're going to invest in bitcoin or either Solon
• 15:56
  Speaker 6: or Avalanche, there is an intrinsic value to it. It's
• 15:58
  Speaker 6: a trusted chain. But what's an intrinsic value to a
• 16:02
  Speaker 6: meme coin? Okay, I mean I don't know.
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: I don't think that's probably the point, right, So what
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: are you guys talking about in class? Also? You uh,
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: do you teach it? What are you guys talking about
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: when it relates to crypto and regulation? What's like the
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: zeitgeist there?
• 16:19
  Speaker 6: So, I mean, obviously all positive news for us, you know,
• 16:23
  Speaker 6: going forward starting this administration, that what we're looking forward to, Like,
• 16:27
  Speaker 6: you know, is it a commodity? Are all of them
• 16:30
  Speaker 6: are commodities? Are all of them are utilities? Or Are
• 16:34
  Speaker 6: we just going to give this a new class, you know,
• 16:36
  Speaker 6: shared class or a new asset class. That's one thing.
• 16:39
  Speaker 6: The other thing is that obviously on how the tech works.
• 16:43
  Speaker 6: So something that this meme coin craze over the weekend
• 16:46
  Speaker 6: did was it kind of pointed out faults in our
• 16:49
  Speaker 6: own space. Right like coin based, the largest retail institutional
• 16:54
  Speaker 6: exchange had issues. Solana, the blockchain itself had issues. Right,
• 16:58
  Speaker 6: are we ready? Are we ready to onboard this many users?
• 17:02
  Speaker 6: So I would be opening up my semester with that.
• 17:05
  Speaker 6: Normally I do it with bitcoin, but this time I
• 17:06
  Speaker 6: would say, guys, this is the perfect use case. Right,
• 17:10
  Speaker 6: does it work, does it not work? Which case worked,
• 17:12
  Speaker 6: which case didn't work? And we can analyze it chain
• 17:16
  Speaker 6: by chain? What broke? At what point?
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: What is the expectation of the industry about regulation under
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: a Trump administration? Is this something that you expect the
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: SEC to take the lead? The CFTC something new, So he.
• 17:31
  Speaker 6: Has set up a special task for at SEC. And
• 17:35
  Speaker 6: Caroline fam the acting chair at CFTC, is also very
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: pro crypto. I've known her for a while, you know,
• 17:44
  Speaker 6: phenomenal person. It's just that they have a better understanding
• 17:48
  Speaker 6: of the asset. So when you know, when we'd go
• 17:51
  Speaker 6: you know, for guidelines or when we'd go to help
• 17:54
  Speaker 6: or when we'd ask for more clarity, they know what
• 17:57
  Speaker 6: we're talking about other than you know, just be being
• 18:01
  Speaker 6: an onshore acid or an offshore asset.
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: So it's less like open season for crypto and it's
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  Speaker 4: more just like the people in the positions have the
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: right kind of language to sort of move things along
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  Speaker 4: in a helpful way that's correct or someone understands like
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: the words you're saying if you're talking about crypto. Right,
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: So based on that, what's realistic in this administration and
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: what is the stuff that we should be ignoring, like
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: the strategic reserve kind of thing, like what's real what's not?
• 18:30
  Speaker 6: I think anything that touches Bitcoin and anything touches ethereum
• 18:35
  Speaker 6: or anything that touches any of the original legacy coins
• 18:39
  Speaker 6: is real. Right, Bitcoin reserve, Yes, that should be you
• 18:43
  Speaker 6: know real because Bitcoin does have a limited supply, but
• 18:47
  Speaker 6: like launches off meme coins to generate like you know,
• 18:51
  Speaker 6: additional wealth and the word liberty financial that is considered frauth.
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: Okay, so the strategic reserve alex is for with this
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: oil you think it has some value. It should be
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: considered for bitcoin.
• 19:05
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it does because again limited value, limited number,
• 19:09
  Speaker 6: limited quantity, only twenty one million in value, twenty one
• 19:14
  Speaker 6: million in quantity, nineteen million and change have already been mined.
• 19:18
  Speaker 6: So and oil you can still keep on drilling right,
• 19:21
  Speaker 6: like you'd find oil at like you know, unknown places still,
• 19:26
  Speaker 6: but Bitcoin, we cannot go back and change the code
• 19:29
  Speaker 6: to make it from twenty one million to twenty.
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: Five I mean fair enough, Thanks very much. It's so
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: good to get your perspective. We love having you on.
• 19:37
  Speaker 4: Ayisha Kiani, chief operating officer at MNNC Group and professor
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: at m YU.
• 19:43
  Speaker 6: What's your class called Introduction to Blockchain and DLT.
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: Don't you feel like we should take that class?
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: Audit, I mean kinda right.
• 19:54
  Speaker 6: I'll send you my lectures. And the more he keeps
• 19:57
  Speaker 6: on making these announcements, I feel like the more I'll
• 19:59
  Speaker 6: be coming here, So I'll start just sending you my lectures.
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: Okay, we'll take it.
• 20:05
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