Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NASCAR DFS - Xfinity 500, 2024 | DraftKings Drivers, Dominators & Place Differential
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: All systems gone clear the lift of Hello, Welcome to
- 0:37Speaker 1: this week's NASCAR Quick Hit. Here at ship at Nation,
- 0:41Speaker 1: I am Eric, also known as the Game on Discord
- 0:45Speaker 1: and tonight and or this morning, we are going to
- 0:48Speaker 1: be discussing the Infinity five hundred taking place at the
- 0:52Speaker 1: world's fastest paper clip also known as Martinsville Speedway. As always,
- 0:58Speaker 1: please go ahead and hit that like button and subscribe
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- 1:13Speaker 1: Before we go ahead and break down the Xfinity five
- 1:16Speaker 1: hundred taking place at Martinsville super Speedway, let me, of
- 1:20Speaker 1: course mention us where's my screen share? Here we go.
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- 2:19Speaker 1: let me go get my notes here, let me pull
- 2:21Speaker 1: up my fancy track sheet. Make sure it won't miss
- 2:25Speaker 1: anything here, all right? This week green Flag is at
- 2:29Speaker 1: two o'clock Eastern time, and TV coverage is on NBC
- 2:33Speaker 1: in the US and TS and five for our friends
- 2:37Speaker 1: in the Great White North. As always, well not as
- 2:42Speaker 1: always when we're not at a super speedway, we are
- 2:45Speaker 1: focused on dominator points, which is what we will absolutely
- 2:50Speaker 1: be focusing on this weekend. We have five hundred laps
- 2:54Speaker 1: around the half mile of Martinsville, which equals out to
- 2:58Speaker 1: a major three hundred and fifty total dominator points three
- 3:04Speaker 1: point fifty. That is huge. You absolutely want to target
- 3:09Speaker 1: those points and you should be considering at least two
- 3:14Speaker 1: two three dominators per lineup now with the way qualifying
- 3:19Speaker 1: shook out and some potential chalk midway and in the
- 3:25Speaker 1: rear of the field, that will be interesting, but uh yeah,
- 3:28Speaker 1: two to three dominators per lineup is what's recommended. All right,
- 3:33Speaker 1: Let's go ahead here and break down our starting lineup
- 3:38Speaker 1: and let me pull up here screen share here, and
- 3:42Speaker 1: I'm just gonna apologize in advance. Dwali fireworks just started
- 3:47Speaker 1: in my neck of the woods, and my dogs hate
- 3:49Speaker 1: said fireworks. So it's quiet for now, and I kind
- 3:53Speaker 1: of hope that dogs don't bark in the middle of it,
- 3:55Speaker 1: but if they do, I'm just gonna mute myself point
- 3:57Speaker 1: to they're done. All right, Let's go ahead and break
- 4:00Speaker 1: down the starting lineup of the Xfinity five hundred. Let
- 4:05Speaker 1: me get my notes. Where's my notes? Here's my notes? Boom?
- 4:09Speaker 1: All right? Starting with our poll sitter Martin Truex Junior
- 4:13Speaker 1: ninety three hundred on DK, ten to five on FanDuel,
- 4:15Speaker 1: plus sixteen hundred on the books. As I've mentioned in
- 4:19Speaker 1: these past couple of weeks, time is ticket for old
- 4:24Speaker 1: Martin Truex Junior. His penultimate race. It's not only the
- 4:28Speaker 1: penultimate race of the NASCAR season, it's the penultimate race
- 4:31Speaker 1: of his career. He has yet to make it into
- 4:36Speaker 1: Victory Lane this season, and personally, I thought if he
- 4:40Speaker 1: had any chance to do it, it would have been at
- 4:44Speaker 1: Homestead last weekend. But the number nineteen Toyota came out fast,
- 4:52Speaker 1: fast in every aspect of practice, the short run, the
- 4:56Speaker 1: long run, lightning. The only thing they have to go
- 5:02Speaker 1: for is a victory. They don't gotta worry about playoff
- 5:05Speaker 1: points or anything like that. TRUEX seems like a smash play.
- 5:13Speaker 1: He ain't gonna win Phoenix next week. That's a little
- 5:15Speaker 1: spoiler alert. There's no way he's winning Phoenix next week.
- 5:20Speaker 1: Why shall I say that? And watching wins Phoenix if
- 5:24Speaker 1: he's gonna win, I think, I think tomorrow, as I'm
- 5:28Speaker 1: recording this at Martinsville will be uh, will be where
- 5:31Speaker 1: he has a chance to do it, or his best
- 5:33Speaker 1: chance to do it rather uh. Next up, starting second
- 5:36Speaker 1: outside poll is Chase Elliott. He is a playoff driver.
- 5:40Speaker 1: That is important. Uh. He is minus forty three points
- 5:45Speaker 1: back from the cutoff line.
- 5:47Speaker 2: UH.
- 5:47Speaker 1: And he pretty much needs to win on Sunday to
- 5:51Speaker 1: advance to the championship four. In fact, I think only one, no,
- 6:01Speaker 1: maybe two Hendricks cars will make it. But there's gonna
- 6:04Speaker 1: be one upset Hendrick driver not in the playoffs. Chase
- 6:08Speaker 1: has the best chance, best starting position, amazing in practice.
- 6:13Speaker 1: William Byron also in the playoffs. He's currently fourth in
- 6:17Speaker 1: the playoffs, and he's only seven points above the cutoff line.
- 6:23Speaker 1: So while Chase was forty three under it, will he
- 6:25Speaker 1: Be is seven above it. He needs a good day.
- 6:30Speaker 1: He can't. He can't ship the bed. He can't if
- 6:36Speaker 1: he falters and finishes like twentieth on back and everybody
- 6:39Speaker 1: else excels. Willy Be's not in the playoffs, so will
- 6:43Speaker 1: he Be needs a good day on Sunday. Chase Briscoe,
- 6:49Speaker 1: one of these things is not like the other true
- 6:51Speaker 1: ex Elliott Byron, Chase Briscoe. Chase Briscoe, though excels at Martinsville.
- 6:59Speaker 1: I've seen him person twice excel at the paper Clip.
- 7:04Speaker 1: I'm not sure why, because him and Brian Priest, who
- 7:08Speaker 1: will get to another few drivers do really well here
- 7:12Speaker 1: fast in the short run, and practice not so good
- 7:16Speaker 1: in the long. However, he is talented enough here at
- 7:21Speaker 1: Martinsville that I will be having him in my pool.
- 7:24Speaker 1: Ty Gibbs, I don't have much to say about old
- 7:27Speaker 1: Ty Gibbs. Will he be in my pool? Yes? Am
- 7:34Speaker 1: I planning to go? You know, extremely overweight on him. No, yeah,
- 7:42Speaker 1: I think I think the playoff storyline drivers are much
- 7:47Speaker 1: more better plays. That's horrible English, but they're very better plays.
- 7:51Speaker 1: That's even worse English than Ty Gibbs on Sunday. Harrison Burton.
- 7:56Speaker 1: You know we're fading him. Alex Bowman, not in the playoffs.
- 8:02Speaker 1: The cheapest Hendrick driver at seventy seven hundred, really bad
- 8:08Speaker 1: in the short runs during practice, but decent at the
- 8:12Speaker 1: long run. I'll be having him in my pool. I
- 8:16Speaker 1: don't plan, like I said, to go overweight or underweight
- 8:18Speaker 1: on him, but he'll be in there. Ryan Pries, I
- 8:21Speaker 1: love me some. Ryan Priest. I only ever really play
- 8:25Speaker 1: Ryan Priest at Super Speedways and Martinsville, and this is Martinsville.
- 8:30Speaker 1: Ryan Priest, you've made it into the pool this weekend.
- 8:33Speaker 1: Kyle Larson ninth. We know what we're getting with Young Money.
- 8:37Speaker 1: Larson is currently fifth in points, and he is seven
- 8:41Speaker 1: points under the playoff line. So Willie b as I
- 8:45Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, it was fourth in the playoffs and seven
- 8:48Speaker 1: points above the line. Well, young Money Larson is fifth
- 8:52Speaker 1: in playoffs and seven under. Excellent in the long run.
- 8:59Speaker 1: Excellent here Martinsville. If you've been playing DFS, NASCAR DFS
- 9:04Speaker 1: all season. You know what you're getting with Larson. I
- 9:12Speaker 1: much prefer him here at Martinsville where he can't spin
- 9:19Speaker 1: himself out with his aggression and his his daring moves
- 9:24Speaker 1: as opposed to like last week at Martinsville. So of
- 9:27Speaker 1: course I'll be having exposure to Larson, but he is
- 9:31Speaker 1: the most expensive, so something to consider. Austin Dylon fade
- 9:37Speaker 1: Josh Berry. I will be considering him for the pool
- 9:41Speaker 1: just because of how good Chase Briscoe and Ryan Priest
- 9:44Speaker 1: are U. Joey Logano, I planned on fading him all week.
- 9:52Speaker 1: He is locked into the playoffs. He does not care
- 9:55Speaker 1: in theory about this race. However, his weren't terrible middle
- 10:02Speaker 1: of the road in practice. I'm still probably going to
- 10:07Speaker 1: fade him because there's so many other drivers in and
- 10:10Speaker 1: around that same price point who needs this victory so
- 10:13Speaker 1: much more than he does. So I'm probably gonna fade
- 10:16Speaker 1: just on that basis. But yeah, Logano could be an
- 10:20Speaker 1: interesting play on someday. Todd Gilliland, he did tire testing here.
- 10:27Speaker 1: I believe the testing happened late summer and that translated
- 10:32Speaker 1: into really good practice and really good qualifying. A good
- 10:37Speaker 1: practice in the short run, not so great in the
- 10:40Speaker 1: long run. However, he's starting far enough up in the
- 10:44Speaker 1: field where he should not get lapped in the beginning
- 10:47Speaker 1: of the race, and I like that. I like not
- 10:51Speaker 1: having a driver not a lap down at the end
- 10:53Speaker 1: of stage one. So I will be having him in
- 10:55Speaker 1: my pool just because of that. Ryan Blaney, he's the
- 11:00Speaker 1: second on the books compared to Larson. I think Larson's
- 11:03Speaker 1: what four to twenty five, Blaney's plus five fifty. Blaney
- 11:06Speaker 1: is a boss at Martinsville, a boss, a plus track rank.
- 11:13Speaker 1: I think off top of my head. Short run wasn't
- 11:17Speaker 1: the best in practice, long run excellent. He is currently
- 11:23Speaker 1: seventh in the playoff points and is thirty eight points
- 11:27Speaker 1: under the cutoff line. Remember how I said earlier that
- 11:31Speaker 1: Chase Elliott essentially needs a victory to advance into the
- 11:34Speaker 1: championship four. So does Ryan Blaney. And from a DFF standpoint,
- 11:41Speaker 1: Ryan Blaney gives you better place differential than Chase, but
- 11:45Speaker 1: Chase gives you dominator upside. So uh, it's gonna be
- 11:51Speaker 1: a fun slate on Sunday. Daniel Hemric fifteenth um look
- 11:58Speaker 1: awful practice, super slow, no idea how he pulled the
- 12:03Speaker 1: fifteenth place starting spot out of his ass. However, he's
- 12:09Speaker 1: cheap at fifty two hundred, and if I'm considering Todd
- 12:14Speaker 1: Gilliland at sixty six hundred because of his starting position
- 12:18Speaker 1: and keeping insulated from being a lap down at the
- 12:20Speaker 1: end of stage one, I would be stupid not to
- 12:23Speaker 1: consider Hemrick for the same reasons. He ain't gonna get ownership,
- 12:32Speaker 1: and if he can stay on the lead lap, he
- 12:38Speaker 1: might sneak you a top twenty finish, which could be
- 12:40Speaker 1: all you need from him at that price point. So
- 12:45Speaker 1: he will probably be my preferred punt play of the slate.
- 12:50Speaker 1: Christopher Bell has been having an amazing run in the playoffs,
- 12:57Speaker 1: and he's currently third in the playoff standings, twenty nine
- 13:00Speaker 1: points above the playoff line. He's not safe minor stretch
- 13:04Speaker 1: of the imagination. He needs a solid day on Sunday
- 13:08Speaker 1: to advance into the Championship four. However, he doesn't need
- 13:16Speaker 1: to lead every lap. He doesn't need to win. He
- 13:19Speaker 1: just needs some decent stage points performances. I will have
- 13:27Speaker 1: him in my pool because of how talented he is
- 13:30Speaker 1: and the run he's having lately. I just don't think
- 13:34Speaker 1: he's going to be going for it as hard as
- 13:38Speaker 1: everybody else will be. Michael mcdale, I'm super indifferent on him.
- 13:43Speaker 1: He is mid here in every sense of the word,
- 13:46Speaker 1: mid practice, mid in the books, mid for his track ranking. Meh,
- 13:54Speaker 1: brad K eight thousand. If he was like seventy five hundred,
- 13:59Speaker 1: I'd be all ab about it. But an eight k
- 14:02Speaker 1: an eight thousand dollars brad k on the books or
- 14:05Speaker 1: on DraftKings, I personally I am not going to get there.
- 14:10Speaker 1: Bubba Wallace also tire tested here at Martinsville, UH, and
- 14:15Speaker 1: he was amazing in practice, and he's two hundred dollars
- 14:19Speaker 1: cheaper than Keasilowski. So if you're wondering why I'm not
- 14:23Speaker 1: going to go to Kesilowski, because I'm taking the two
- 14:25Speaker 1: hundred dollars savings with Bubba. Daniel Swarez Miamigo seven k
- 14:31Speaker 1: on DraftKings. He was good in practice except for the
- 14:37Speaker 1: long run, twenty second in the twenty lap ranking and
- 14:42Speaker 1: twenty second in the twenty five lap ranking. Probably not
- 14:45Speaker 1: going to get there. Eric Jones, I really like Eric
- 14:50Speaker 1: Jones as a race car driver. Legacy Motor Club is
- 14:53Speaker 1: the shits. I'm not getting there. Ros Chastain I love
- 14:59Speaker 1: his Russian. In fact, I love him in these playoffs,
- 15:05Speaker 1: even more so that he's not in it because of
- 15:07Speaker 1: how aggressive he can be because he's not racing four points,
- 15:12Speaker 1: but just like Suarez, decent in the one lap, but
- 15:18Speaker 1: then really falls off over the long run, and you
- 15:20Speaker 1: need a long run car. Here in Martinsville. Kyle Busch
- 15:25Speaker 1: also tire tested here at Martinsville. I will be having
- 15:29Speaker 1: him in my pool due to that. However, practice speeds
- 15:32Speaker 1: not so good, Bob Austin Cindrick, I am fading with confidence.
- 15:37Speaker 1: Noah Gregson, I will be playing. I shouldn't say I'll
- 15:41Speaker 1: be playing. I'll be having him in my pool just
- 15:44Speaker 1: because of how good his teammates are here. I'm kind
- 15:46Speaker 1: of hoping some of that not driver talent, but car
- 15:52Speaker 1: notes from the various crew chiefs has made its way
- 15:55Speaker 1: to the Gregson machine of Stuart Haas racing Chris Busher,
- 16:01Speaker 1: even though Busher was not good in practice at all.
- 16:05Speaker 1: I would play him over Brad k just for the
- 16:08Speaker 1: place differential upside. But yeah, no, the practice speeds aren't
- 16:12Speaker 1: there for me. Young Carson host of AR, I am
- 16:16Speaker 1: once again here to beat the Carson host of AR
- 16:19Speaker 1: Drum ran great here in the truck series, performed well
- 16:24Speaker 1: here in the springtime, and has had a decent run
- 16:29Speaker 1: at short flat tracks lately. Sixty seven hundred. I wish
- 16:34Speaker 1: he was starting a bit further up in the field
- 16:38Speaker 1: to keep him insulated from potentially going a lapdown in
- 16:42Speaker 1: stage one, but I will be having exposure to host
- 16:47Speaker 1: of bar Old Reki Stenhouse Junior. I am fading him.
- 16:54Speaker 1: I don't want Reki at Martinsville, and I don't want
- 16:57Speaker 1: Reky at plus seventy five thousand, and I don't want
- 17:00Speaker 1: Recky with those practice feeds. Shane van Gisbergen. I love
- 17:05Speaker 1: me some SVG, I don't love me SVG here at
- 17:11Speaker 1: Martinsville first Next Gen Cup start here at Martinsville normally
- 17:17Speaker 1: does not lead to good things only sixty two hundred, though,
- 17:24Speaker 1: and there is a possible upside that the hard breaking
- 17:30Speaker 1: at Martinsville. So if you aren't aware, Martinsville is essentially
- 17:34Speaker 1: a half mile paper clip to long straightaways two very
- 17:39Speaker 1: tight U turns. There is a possibility that the hard
- 17:43Speaker 1: breaking zones going into turns one and turns three will
- 17:47Speaker 1: benefit SVG due to the heartbreaking that's found in world
- 17:54Speaker 1: courses right However, that's totally just a theory idea on
- 18:00Speaker 1: my part, and I'm probably gonna fade him. But if
- 18:04Speaker 1: you want to play him, I do understand it. Justin Haley,
- 18:08Speaker 1: I love me some. Justin Haley horrible during the short run,
- 18:13Speaker 1: But then look at the twenty five and the thirty
- 18:16Speaker 1: eighth and seventh. You can't ignore that Tyler Redick, playoff
- 18:21Speaker 1: driver who is locked in. He just doesn't. I love Reddick.
- 18:30Speaker 1: If Reddick was not locked into the playoffs and he
- 18:33Speaker 1: was starting at this at this position, I would play
- 18:36Speaker 1: him all day. But the fact is he is locked
- 18:41Speaker 1: into the playoffs. He short, slow in the short run,
- 18:47Speaker 1: decent over the long run. I just don't know how
- 18:52Speaker 1: much Reddick I'm going to get to at that price
- 18:54Speaker 1: range and his are at that price and at his
- 18:58Speaker 1: starting position. John Hunter Nimachek of Legacy Motorclub. Fade Kaz Gralaw.
- 19:06Speaker 1: I like to play Kaz, but not this weekend. Fade
- 19:09Speaker 1: Corey Lajoy, you know him. Faden Josh BILICKI, for the
- 19:13Speaker 1: ever love of Christ, please fade him and don't play
- 19:16Speaker 1: Josh Bilicky. Zane Smith starting thirty six, I can get there. Look,
- 19:25Speaker 1: Spire is just Minnie Hendrick okay, horrible in the short
- 19:31Speaker 1: run of practice, but much like I mentioned earlier with
- 19:37Speaker 1: just Haley, picks up as far as the long run goes.
- 19:40Speaker 1: My biggest concern with him is, like I've mentioned a
- 19:44Speaker 1: few other times, will he be able to pass enough
- 19:48Speaker 1: cars in stage one to keep himself from going a
- 19:51Speaker 1: lap down? That's the thing that's basically that's the question
- 19:57Speaker 1: you need to ask yourself for maybe from twenty fifth
- 20:03Speaker 1: on back, because lap time's here, go quick and it's
- 20:08Speaker 1: hard to pass in these next gen cars. So yeah,
- 20:12Speaker 1: that's something you should be asking yourself. Can they advance
- 20:15Speaker 1: further enough far enough in stage one to be insulated
- 20:20Speaker 1: from going to left down? And last, but most certainly
- 20:25Speaker 1: not least the donkey chock of the slate one Denny
- 20:30Speaker 1: Hamlin eleven to three on DK fourteen on fan Duel,
- 20:36Speaker 1: and I miscorrectly spoke earlier I said Blane was the
- 20:39Speaker 1: second one of the books. I was wrong. It's Hamlin,
- 20:42Speaker 1: Hamlin's plus four fifty, Larson's four to twenty five, and
- 20:45Speaker 1: Blaney's plus five fifty. Look, Hamlet crushed it in practice third, fourth, second, second, second, However,
- 20:54Speaker 1: then he really crushed it as he backed it into
- 20:57Speaker 1: the wall and smashed his primary car up where they
- 21:01Speaker 1: had to unload a backup car and they did not
- 21:05Speaker 1: get to perform a qualifying run. Denny Hamlin is how
- 21:13Speaker 1: many points out is he? He is eighteen points from
- 21:18Speaker 1: the playoff cutoff line. He's currently sixth in the playoff standings,
- 21:23Speaker 1: and he is excellent here at Martinsville. Excellent. However, you
- 21:30Speaker 1: do need to ask yourself the same things. Like I
- 21:33Speaker 1: mentioned before, can he pass enough cars in stage one
- 21:39Speaker 1: to keep himself from going a lap down? You sure
- 21:43Speaker 1: would think so, right, based off his practice, beads, based
- 21:47Speaker 1: off the books, based off of the fact that he
- 21:50Speaker 1: needs a win, well, he's minus eighteen. He doesn't need
- 21:56Speaker 1: a win. He needs a pretty damn good day to
- 21:59Speaker 1: make it into the play offs. So I will be
- 22:04Speaker 1: probably playing a little bit over the field on Denny
- 22:09Speaker 1: just because of this scenario and what he needs to
- 22:13Speaker 1: do on Sunday. However, if you want to fade him,
- 22:17Speaker 1: I totally get it, totally get it, because like I said,
- 22:21Speaker 1: he will be the chalk of the slate and it's Martinsville.
- 22:25Speaker 1: Crazier things have happened, and that's it. That's it. We
- 22:31Speaker 1: are through all thirty seven drivers and we only have
- 22:34Speaker 1: one race left after Martinsville. So hopefully the next GENA
- 22:39Speaker 1: car and these new tire package puts on a good
- 22:43Speaker 1: show for us on Sunday. That's it. I'm going to
- 22:47Speaker 1: wrap up and make myself a nice cup of evening
- 22:50Speaker 1: coffee and finish up my notes for you find folks
- 22:54Speaker 1: on the site. As always, if you have any questions
- 22:58Speaker 1: about the slate, please feel free to tag me on
- 23:00Speaker 1: discord and as always, let's ship.
- 23:04Speaker 2: It as that half n still acted mother and nsted
- 24:07Speaker 2: and still acted mother and n