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From Momentum to Margin: Where Smart Money Is Moving Now - 1/26/26 · Paramount Wealth Perspectives

• 0:00
  Chris Coyle: Intro song
• 0:11
  Hello everyone.
• 0:12
  Welcome to Paramount Wealth Perspectives, your go-to podcast for the latest updates on global markets and current economic events.
• 0:20
  As always, this is your host, Chris Coyle.
• 0:22
  I'm the market director and an advisor here at Paramount Associates Wealth Management, and today I'm joined by our Chief Investment Officer, Scott Tremlett.
• 0:30
  Alright, let's jump straight into it.
• 0:32
  Last week felt a little choppy on the surface.
• 0:35
  What stood out to you?
• 0:36
  Yeah, choppy is the right word.
• 0:39
  The big picture is that the market didn't really break, but it also did not reward complacency, we saw a second straight weekly pullback in the markets, and that alone gets people's attention after such a strong run.
• 0:52
  What mattered more though was where the weakness showed up.
• 0:56
  Financials rolled over, real estate and utilities lagged, and suddenly the defensive yield sensitive stuff wasn't acting defensive anymore.
• 1:05
  At the same time, energy and materials quietly did their job.
• 1:09
  That's not random.
• 1:10
  That's a market telling you it's still leaning into real assets, pricing power, and tangible cash flow while questioning parts of the balance sheet, heavy and rate sensitive trades, earnings played a role in that, especially early reporters.
• 1:25
  How do you read what we've seen so far?
• 1:28
  Well, earnings are doing something very important right now.
• 1:31
  They're separating.
• 1:32
  Expectations from actual reality results haven't been bad.
• 1:37
  In fact, a lot of companies are beating.
• 1:39
  The issue is the bar.
• 1:41
  Financials are a good example.
• 1:43
  You can beat revenue.
• 1:44
  Miss on margins or expenses, and the stock still gets punished.
• 1:49
  That tells you investors are no longer paying up for good enough.
• 1:53
  We are seeing solid corporate execution, but not flawless delivery.
• 1:58
  And in a market that's priced for near perfect outcomes, that's enough to cause drawdowns.
• 2:04
  I'll have to note that the market has been very resilient to find reasons to press on.
• 2:08
  Let's stay on that idea of resilience for a moment.
• 2:12
  When you talk to clients right now, what do they seem most unsure about?
• 2:16
  The biggest uncertainty isn't whether the economy is strong or weak.
• 2:20
  It's whether the market can keep rewarding the same behaviors that worked over the last few years.
• 2:26
  People are wrestling with concentration risk with whether they're overexposed to a handful of names, sectors, or narratives, and that's a healthy question to be asking.
• 2:36
  What I keep coming back to is this.
• 2:39
  Markets don't usually end because something breaks suddenly they end when expectations get too one sided.
• 2:46
  Right now, expectations for growth are high.
• 2:49
  Expectations for earnings are high, and expectations for policy support are still embedded in prices, even if fewer rate cuts are being priced in.
• 2:59
  So you're saying it's less about disappointment and more about valuation discipline coming back?
• 3:04
  Exactly.
• 3:05
  This isn't 2022 where earnings were collapsing.
• 3:09
  This is 2026 where earnings are growing, but investors are asking, is this growth high quality, repeatable?
• 3:16
  And resilient.
• 3:18
  That's a much tougher question.
• 3:20
  So Scott, would you say, is this more about managing risk than chasing upside?
• 3:24
  Absolutely.
• 3:26
  Upside still exists.
• 3:28
  The days where you could just buy beta or high risk and let multiple expansion do the work are probably behind us for now.
• 3:35
  From here, returns are more likely to come from earnings realization, margin discipline, and capital allocation, and not a hope.
• 3:44
  That's why quality matters so much.
• 3:46
  Companies that can sell fund growth.
• 3:48
  Manage costs and generate free cash flow are far better positioned than those relying on cheap capital or optimistic forecasts.
• 3:57
  Zooming out, what were the bigger macro forces driving sentiment last week?
• 4:01
  Two things dominated first, geopolitics flared up and then cooled down.
• 4:06
  Just as quickly, we saw markets react negatively to aggressive trade rhetoric early in the week only to rebound when it became clear that escalation wasn't imminent.
• 4:17
  That's the pattern.
• 4:18
  Now, headline, risk matters, but durability matters more.
• 4:22
  Second, the economic data reinforced the idea that the US economy is still holding together better than many expected labor data stayed firm manufacturing surveys nudged higher and consumer sentiment stabilized.
• 4:39
  None of that screams overheating, but it also doesn't justify aggressive rate cuts anytime soon.
• 4:45
  Which all brings us to the Fed this week, right?
• 4:48
  This is a big meeting, even though no one expects a rate cut.
• 4:52
  The Fed is essentially being asked to validate the market's assumption that policy can stay restrictive without breaking growth.
• 5:00
  Right now, futures markets are pricing fewer cuts this year than they were just a month ago.
• 5:06
  That tells you confidence in economic resilience is rising.
• 5:09
  What everyone will listen for isn't the decision, but it's the tone.
• 5:15
  Is the fed comfortable waiting?
• 5:17
  Are they worried about inflation?
• 5:18
  Reaccelerating?
• 5:20
  Do they acknowledge the tightening financial conditions that come from higher long-term rates even without hikes?
• 5:26
  Now, let's shift to earnings.
• 5:27
  If you had to summarize earning season so far in one sentence, what would it be?
• 5:32
  Earnings are good.
• 5:34
  Expectations are aggressive, and the market is no longer forgiving.
• 5:39
  Awesome.
• 5:39
  Let's talk about this week coming up.
• 5:41
  It's a monster earnings calendar.
• 5:43
  This is where things get really interesting.
• 5:46
  This is one of those weeks where leadership can change or being reinforced.
• 5:51
  We're getting that first real look of several of the mega cap tech names that have carried the market narrative for years, Microsoft Meta, Tesla, apple.
• 6:01
  These reports will tell us whether earnings power is broadening or still concentrated.
• 6:06
  What matters most isn't just the numbers, though.
• 6:09
  It's guidance, it's spending plans.
• 6:12
  It's how confident management teams are about demand six to 12 months out.
• 6:17
  Are expectations still high for or too high for the mega caps?
• 6:22
  Well, the expectations are very high.
• 6:24
  But that's the risk.
• 6:26
  These companies are phenomenal businesses and they're being asked to deliver not just growth, but acceleration.
• 6:32
  Investors wanna see AI spending translate into productivity, margins, and revenue, not just capital intensity.
• 6:40
  If they deliver, the market can grind higher.
• 6:43
  If they don't, it opens the door for rotation rather than outright downside to the markets.
• 6:50
  We've already seen some rotation, especially towards smaller companies.
• 6:53
  What's your take on that?
• 6:55
  This is where nuance really matters.
• 6:57
  Yes.
• 6:59
  Small caps have outperformed recently, but not all small caps are created equal.
• 7:04
  A lot of the performance has come from lower quality on profitable names.
• 7:08
  The ones that benefit most from liquidity and optimism, but not fundamentals.
• 7:14
  That is a warning sign.
• 7:15
  When the lowest quality segment leads, it often reflects speculative enthusiasm rather than durable economic strength.
• 7:23
  So you're still skeptical of the small cap surge.
• 7:26
  Cautious may be a better word.
• 7:28
  There are high quality small and mid cap companies with strong balance sheets and real earnings power, but broadly chasing unprofitable or highly leveraged names because they look cheap, quote unquote, is dangerous.
• 7:43
  Valuation alone isn't a catalyst.
• 7:46
  This is where I think investors need to be disciplined.
• 7:49
  Take profits where speculation has outrun the fundamentals rebalance towards quality, whether that's large cap core, profitable mid caps, or even selective international exposure.
• 8:01
  How does that show up in portfolio construction?
• 8:04
  Well, it really means trimming excess.
• 8:06
  It means looking hard at positions that have run purely because liquidity was abundant.
• 8:11
  Or sentiment was hot.
• 8:13
  It also means being willing to rebalance even when something still feels good.
• 8:19
  One of the hardest things for investors to do is sell something that's gone up and still has a compelling story, but discipline requires asking whether the risk reward has changed, not whether the story is still interesting.
• 8:33
  You mentioned international markets.
• 8:35
  Why look abroad now?
• 8:37
  Because diversification actually works.
• 8:39
  Again, the dollar has softened.
• 8:41
  Commodities are strong, and several emerging markets are benefiting from a mix of easing policy and improving trade dynamics.
• 8:50
  You don't need everything to go right.
• 8:52
  You just need things to go less wrong than expected.
• 8:57
  At the same time, concentrating all your risk in a handful of us mega caps, assumes nothing disrupts that narrative.
• 9:05
  History tells us that's rarely the case.
• 9:08
  What about bonds?
• 9:09
  They've been well confusing.
• 9:11
  They have, but the message is clearer than it looks.
• 9:15
  Long-term rates are reflecting term premium and not panic.
• 9:19
  Investors want compensation for policy, uncertainty, deficits, and inflation risk.
• 9:26
  That doesn't mean bonds are broken.
• 9:28
  It means diversification has to be more thoughtful, selective credit and active management and bond substitutes matter more now than simply owning the aggregate index and hoping it offsets the equity risk.
• 9:41
  Honestly, metals have provided more diversification lately, but that comes with risks too, and could come under fire if the correlation between metals and stocks.
• 9:51
  Increases.
• 9:52
  You've talked before about the difference between participation and concentration, and that's a huge distinction, Chris.
• 9:59
  You can participate in innovation, ai, productivity gains, and economic growth without concentrating your entire outcome on a few names.
• 10:09
  Diversification doesn't mean avoiding opportunity.
• 10:12
  It means surviving long enough to compound it, and this is where we've been very intentional.
• 10:19
  In broadening exposure, large cap quality still plays a role.
• 10:23
  Select mid-caps play a role.
• 10:25
  International markets also play a role.
• 10:28
  Real assets play a role.
• 10:29
  Even alternatives when used thoughtfully can help smooth volatility.
• 10:33
  What risks do you think are being underestimated right now?
• 10:37
  Well, to me, I think policy risk is still underappreciated.
• 10:41
  Trade policy, fiscal decisions, regulatory shifts, those things don't show up cleanly in spreadsheets, but they absolutely impact margins and confidence.
• 10:52
  Inflation risk is another one.
• 10:54
  It doesn't need to spike to matter, it just needs to stay sticky enough to keep rates higher for longer, and finally, earnings risk.
• 11:04
  Not a collapse, just disappointment.
• 11:07
  When expectations are stretched, even small misses can matter.
• 11:11
  Does any of that change your long-term outlook?
• 11:13
  No, it, it just changes how we get there.
• 11:16
  Long-term innovation, productivity and capital markets still drive wealth creation, but the path won't be linear.
• 11:24
  The next phase likely rewards, patience, selectivity, and adaptability more than aggression.
• 11:31
  And what should investors be watching most closely this week?
• 11:34
  Three things.
• 11:35
  First, guidance from the mega caps, not just what they earn, but how they see demand and investment evolving.
• 11:42
  Second, the fed's tone, especially around patience and inflation risk.
• 11:48
  And third market reaction.
• 11:50
  Not the headlines, but how stocks trade after the news.
• 11:55
  If good news is met with selling, that tells you positioning is crowded.
• 12:00
  If bad news is shrugged off, that tells you the underlying trend is still intact.
• 12:05
  If someone listens to this and wants one takeaway, what should it be?
• 12:09
  To me, it would be stay invested.
• 12:12
  Stay diversified and stay disciplined.
• 12:15
  This isn't a time to abandon markets.
• 12:18
  It's a time to respect them.
• 12:20
  The goal isn't to predict the next headline.
• 12:22
  It's to build portfolios that can absorb surprises and still move forward.
• 12:29
  Awesome.
• 12:29
  Thanks Scott.
• 12:30
  I know both myself and our listeners appreciate your insights.
• 12:33
  Sure thing.
• 12:34
  I'll catch you again in two weeks.
• 12:35
  I also want to thank our audience for tuning in and remember to please submit your questions via email to general@paramountassoc.com.
• 12:45
  For now, stay informed.
• 12:47
  Stay ahead and join us next time for more key updates shaping the global economy.