Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process
Transcript
- 0:04Speaker 1: All systems go. Clear for liftoff.
- 0:36Speaker 2: What's going on, everybody? Hope everyone's having a great week.
- 0:39Speaker 2: We are back talking some UFC. We got a numbered card,
- 0:42Speaker 2: UFC 322. You would not know it when you just
- 0:46Speaker 2: look at the main event. We will get there a
- 0:48Speaker 2: little later, but Salt Lake City, Utah. I actually have
- 0:51Speaker 2: attended fights in Salt Lake City. One of my favorite cards.
- 0:55Speaker 2: Crowd absolutely rocking from the get-go. That's if anyone remembers
- 0:58Speaker 2: the picture I got with Theo Vaughn. It was a
- 1:00Speaker 2: phenomenal card. Atmosphere is great. We have 14 fights, so
- 1:04Speaker 2: even though that main event isn't great, to be honest,
- 1:06Speaker 2: you could argue it's even better for DFS because by
- 1:09Speaker 2: no means do you have to go all in on
- 1:11Speaker 2: that fight. One other note, we had a late notice replacement.
- 1:15Speaker 2: It was Marcus McGee versus Bernardo Sopai, which was going
- 1:20Speaker 2: to be a good mid-tier fight. Out is Sopai, in
- 1:23Speaker 2: is Anthony Romero, which brings Marcus McGee from like a
- 1:26Speaker 2: minus 150 favorite to a minus 480 favorite, and his
- 1:29Speaker 2: price doesn't change, so... That's a quick broad slate for me.
- 1:32Speaker 2: 14 fights is good for DFS, though. How are we
- 1:35Speaker 2: doing today, Big Marley?
- 1:37Speaker 1: Yeah, doing good. I mean, I think it's a tough card, too.
- 1:41Speaker 1: We have 14 fights. I think almost the entire 9K
- 1:45Speaker 1: are guys I want to pay up for. But at
- 1:47Speaker 1: the same time, there's not a lot of underdogs that
- 1:49Speaker 1: I like. So it's going to be hard to get there.
- 1:51Speaker 1: So looking forward to talking it out with you. Hopefully
- 1:53Speaker 1: you can talk me on to another one or two.
- 1:56Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll do my best and try again. The nice
- 1:58Speaker 2: thing is about 14 fights, like even if we are
- 2:00Speaker 2: picking almost all favorites and stuff, if you go and
- 2:02Speaker 2: try and parlay a bunch of favorites, even like the
- 2:05Speaker 2: top five highest price guys, you're going to find that
- 2:08Speaker 2: is plus money. There is an underdog that is expected
- 2:10Speaker 2: to win even with the biggest favorites when you start
- 2:13Speaker 2: parlaying to get them together. So definitely not a fight
- 2:16Speaker 2: that I'm going to be or card that I'm going
- 2:18Speaker 2: to be stacking any fights. I can always leave money,
- 2:20Speaker 2: of course, but the upper tier is very strong. I
- 2:23Speaker 2: agree with this man, King Green, And Esteban Ruvik is
- 2:27Speaker 2: going to be one hell of a fight. You can
- 2:29Speaker 2: definitely argue that is the best fight of the night.
- 2:31Speaker 2: Just looking at Big Marley's stuff quick, he has two
- 2:33Speaker 2: five-star fights and then some fours and a lot of
- 2:36Speaker 2: three-star fights. Do you plan on going all-in on any fight?
- 2:41Speaker 1: No.
- 2:44Speaker 2: It'd be no for me, too. I think it's pretty
- 2:47Speaker 2: hard to make a case to have 100% of one
- 2:49Speaker 2: individual fight on this 14-fight card.
- 2:53Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's the 9K guys that I like the most,
- 2:56Speaker 1: but they're all so close to each other where I'd
- 2:59Speaker 1: be fine with any one-off.
- 3:01Speaker 2: Yeah, any broad slate for you besides what I mentioned?
- 3:05Speaker 1: No, I think– I don't know how the field is
- 3:11Speaker 1: going to handle the main event. I know they're not
- 3:13Speaker 1: going to be as heavy as most main events, but–
- 3:17Speaker 1: I also think it could lead to people to more
- 3:19Speaker 1: Kong just to get to those people that, that we'll
- 3:22Speaker 1: be talking about later.
- 3:23Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that's definitely sharp, especially now with the
- 3:26Speaker 2: Marcus McGeep 8,500 and him being pretty appealing kind of
- 3:29Speaker 2: in the Natalia silver range. I do think that main
- 3:32Speaker 2: events a lot lower than we usually see, obviously always
- 3:35Speaker 2: gets ownership still, but yeah, I do think Wayne Kong
- 3:38Speaker 2: probably gets up there in terms of ownership because of
- 3:41Speaker 2: the lack of dogs and ability to spend up elsewhere,
- 3:44Speaker 2: but we'll go, Fight by fight, like always, bottom to
- 3:47Speaker 2: top is how we do it. What's up? T-Bird, very
- 3:52Speaker 2: fake pay-per-view. Yeah, I agree. It's not great. But for DFS, again,
- 3:57Speaker 2: 14 fights, that matters more to me than just the
- 4:00Speaker 2: main event. Let's head over to Chipination quick, just show
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- 4:37Speaker 2: much going on in the sports world tonight. I think
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- 4:48Speaker 2: Every annual, you even get a bigger discount than from
- 4:51Speaker 2: your monthly. You get Saversim, you get Discord. Again, there's
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- 4:58Speaker 2: the game right now with so many sports going on.
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- 5:26Speaker 2: What did Jeff say? I like Wang. The UFC really
- 5:28Speaker 2: wants her to win to set up a Valentina fight.
- 5:30Speaker 1: Maybe.
- 5:31Speaker 2: Maybe we will see. Valentina had to vacate her belt
- 5:35Speaker 2: due to injury. So that's the fight that we have
- 5:38Speaker 2: right there. For the vacated belt. All right. I say
- 5:42Speaker 2: we go bottom to top. As always no time to waste.
- 5:45Speaker 2: This isn't the official bout order. Like this Jacoby Smith
- 5:48Speaker 2: fight isn't first. It's been changed around a bit. But
- 5:50Speaker 2: again the bout order does not matter. When it comes
- 5:53Speaker 2: to DFS. First fight of the night. First fight going
- 5:57Speaker 2: based on the stone. The highest priced and biggest favorite.
- 6:00Speaker 2: Jacoby Smith minus 1,000. Taking on Bruce Whitehead plus 661.
- 6:04Speaker 2: Minus 1,400 for this fight to finish. Smith minus 750
- 6:09Speaker 2: inside the distance. Whitehead plus 750. I do not see any. Actually,
- 6:14Speaker 2: I take that back. Minus 160 is Smith in round one.
- 6:17Speaker 2: I think it's the same story as usual. 9800 is
- 6:21Speaker 2: a big price tag, especially when there is appealing options
- 6:24Speaker 2: for cheaper that I think have similar upside. So I'll
- 6:28Speaker 2: probably be underweight Smith, zero Whitehead. And that's how I
- 6:31Speaker 2: plan on attacking the first fight. What about you?
- 6:34Speaker 1: Yeah, I put it as a four-star because I didn't
- 6:37Speaker 1: know his salary when I was doing that. But, yeah, 9,800
- 6:40Speaker 1: is probably going to end up pricing him out of
- 6:42Speaker 1: a lot of my lineups just because I like 92
- 6:45Speaker 1: and up. On a card where I just don't like
- 6:48Speaker 1: a lot of underdogs, I think it's going to be
- 6:50Speaker 1: hard to get to Smith, and he's probably going to
- 6:52Speaker 1: be priced out of the optimal lineup even if he
- 6:54Speaker 1: puts up 110 points. But I think it's still Smith
- 6:58Speaker 1: or pass. I mean, Whitehead's going to need to knock
- 7:01Speaker 1: Smith out with, a flash KO, or maybe just grab
- 7:05Speaker 1: a neck and choke him out at some point. I
- 7:08Speaker 1: don't see how Whitehead's going to win minutes against a
- 7:10Speaker 1: guy like Smith, just super athletic, explosive, powerful, and a
- 7:15Speaker 1: great wrestler. I think Smith is going to do what
- 7:17Speaker 1: he wants in this fight, probably go in, try and
- 7:20Speaker 1: get a knockout if he doesn't, look for takedowns, and
- 7:23Speaker 1: then I think he finishes him with either ground and
- 7:25Speaker 1: pound or or a choke. But either way, I think
- 7:29Speaker 1: Smith dominates the fight. I just don't like the $ 9, 800.
- 7:32Speaker 1: So probably passing and hoping Smith scores 105.
- 7:35Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I'll be hoping to. You can see
- 7:39Speaker 2: Anthony Wint, 500 less. Pinas, 400 less. I could plug
- 7:44Speaker 2: any Smith lineup in, drop to those two, even in
- 7:46Speaker 2: a vacuum. And I think there is upside that they
- 7:48Speaker 2: could outscore Smith. But also just easier to leave $ 300
- 7:51Speaker 2: when you play Wint. Instead of Smith, you don't have
- 7:54Speaker 2: to make it just a 1v1 pivot. It's something I'm
- 7:57Speaker 2: fine doing in chalky teams, though. Next fight on the card,
- 8:02Speaker 2: retirement fight for the good old Court McGee. He's taking
- 8:05Speaker 2: on Eric Nolan. Minus 225, Nolan. Plus 189 is Court McGee.
- 8:12Speaker 2: Minus 145 for this fight to finish. Nolan, minus 105
- 8:15Speaker 2: inside the distance. Court, plus 575. So you can see
- 8:19Speaker 2: on Tuesday, it was Eric Nolan at minus 265. Now
- 8:24Speaker 2: it's minus 225. Eric Nolan did open minus 350 as well.
- 8:28Speaker 2: So money has continued to pour in on the Court
- 8:31Speaker 2: McGee side. We need dogs on this card. I know
- 8:34Speaker 2: it's his retirement fight. I know he's 41 years old.
- 8:37Speaker 2: But if he doesn't get chinned, I think this could
- 8:39Speaker 2: be a competitive fight. Court, strong, can use his clinch,
- 8:43Speaker 2: his savviness, his veteran ability. can probably get takedowns in
- 8:47Speaker 2: this fight if he needs it. At 7,200, any win
- 8:51Speaker 2: I would take, he's taking money. This fight's expected to finish.
- 8:54Speaker 2: I am going to have some Court McGee. Now, I
- 8:57Speaker 2: think I'm going to have some Eric Nolan as well
- 8:59Speaker 2: for the simple fact that I think he's going to
- 9:00Speaker 2: be very low owned. Maybe Court McGee's just so done
- 9:04Speaker 2: and gets chin right away, but Nolan has power and
- 9:06Speaker 2: he's minus 105 inside the distance, plus 235 in round one.
- 9:11Speaker 2: At ownership, those are pretty good props as a way
- 9:14Speaker 2: to get different in that 9K range. So, Doesn't sound
- 9:17Speaker 2: too appealing, but I think this is going to be
- 9:19Speaker 2: a fight I'll be overweight on to start the night.
- 9:22Speaker 1: Yeah, unfortunately, I'm going to be the same. Court McGee
- 9:25Speaker 1: is one of my favorite underdog picks on the card
- 9:28Speaker 1: just because it is his retirement fight in his hometown.
- 9:33Speaker 1: I feel like the UFC was like, yo, here's the roster.
- 9:35Speaker 1: Pick out somebody you could beat and ride off into
- 9:38Speaker 1: the sunset. And he picks Eric Nolan. I think he's
- 9:40Speaker 1: got a chance against Nolan. I mean, Nolan's a lot younger.
- 9:43Speaker 1: He's going to be faster. He'll be the better striker
- 9:45Speaker 1: at range. more durable, have more knockout power. But if
- 9:49Speaker 1: he doesn't knock out court, I don't know how Nolan
- 9:53Speaker 1: would make the optimal lineup. So you're really playing for
- 9:56Speaker 1: first round knockouts for on the Nolan side, but he's
- 9:59Speaker 1: going to be a lot lower on than all those
- 10:00Speaker 1: other nine K guys that we're going to get to.
- 10:02Speaker 1: So I think he definitely makes sense for ownership reasons,
- 10:06Speaker 1: but court shouldn't just stand at range and strike with
- 10:08Speaker 1: this guy. He should be pushing a heavy pace. I
- 10:11Speaker 1: think he can strike with volume as long as he's
- 10:14Speaker 1: getting on the inside. I think he could work takedowns.
- 10:16Speaker 1: Nolan was taken down like 17 times in his last
- 10:19Speaker 1: UFC fight. So I definitely think Court McGee can go
- 10:22Speaker 1: in there and get three to six takedowns. Enough top
- 10:24Speaker 1: control time. I think he can work when he's in
- 10:26Speaker 1: top control as well. And even at 42 years old,
- 10:29Speaker 1: I think he can go a hard 15 minutes, maybe
- 10:32Speaker 1: even harder than Eric Nolan. So yeah, give me Court McGee.
- 10:36Speaker 1: I'll be overweight to him. And then I'll probably be
- 10:39Speaker 1: around the field on Nolan just because I don't want
- 10:40Speaker 1: to get burned there. And I think he could be
- 10:42Speaker 1: a sneaky way to the optimal lineup if Court just
- 10:45Speaker 1: does get knocked out right away.
- 10:47Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, plus 235, that's his round one prop.
- 10:49Speaker 2: That's 29.9%. He could come in 15% on this card,
- 10:53Speaker 2: half of his round one prop. So just that alone,
- 10:56Speaker 2: and then, yeah, taking on a guy that's retiring, 41
- 10:59Speaker 2: years old, definitely will have the power advantage. I think
- 11:02Speaker 2: all of those makes for a strong case to play
- 11:05Speaker 2: some Eric Nolan at low ownership as a pivot in
- 11:07Speaker 2: the upper tier range. But yeah, I don't think you
- 11:09Speaker 2: should plug in Jacoby Smith, take Smith out, go Nolan,
- 11:12Speaker 2: and leave 800 in a vacuum. That's not the way
- 11:14Speaker 2: I would do it, but. When I'm playing Marcus McGee,
- 11:17Speaker 2: when I'm playing the main event, if I'm playing King
- 11:20Speaker 2: Green and just getting chalky, chalky, chalky, I think that's
- 11:23Speaker 2: where Eric Nolan makes some sense in GPPs. Next fight
- 11:27Speaker 2: on the card, mid-tier fights. Ismail Nerdy of minus 135,
- 11:33Speaker 2: taking on Marvin Vittori, plus 115. Plus 150 for this
- 11:36Speaker 2: fight to finish. Nerdy of plus 250 inside the distance.
- 11:39Speaker 2: Vittori plus 400. I'll throw it to you in this one.
- 11:43Speaker 2: What do you think in this mid-tier fight?
- 11:46Speaker 1: I really just don't like this fight very much. I
- 11:48Speaker 1: think if it goes the distance, we're probably not going
- 11:50Speaker 1: to have to even worry who wins because I don't
- 11:52Speaker 1: think we're going to have a high score on either side.
- 11:55Speaker 1: I do think Vittori would be the one that's more
- 11:57Speaker 1: likely to strike with high volume and land takedowns. So
- 12:02Speaker 1: I ended up picking him as my pick to win
- 12:04Speaker 1: just because he was the underdog, and I think those
- 12:06Speaker 1: are his paths to victory. But Vittori just looks so washed. uh, Nordiev,
- 12:11Speaker 1: I think is the better striker. He does have more power.
- 12:14Speaker 1: I think if it's an at range striking match, he
- 12:16Speaker 1: probably picks them apart for 15 minutes, but still has
- 12:19Speaker 1: to eat volume in the process. And you never know
- 12:22Speaker 1: what the judges are going to think, but I just
- 12:23Speaker 1: don't think that's going to make the optimal lineup, no
- 12:25Speaker 1: matter who gets their hand raised. So what I want
- 12:27Speaker 1: to do is just act like this fight isn't there, uh,
- 12:30Speaker 1: and hope that the winner scores 70 points in a decision.
- 12:34Speaker 1: I was going back and forth on this one, just
- 12:36Speaker 1: as my who's going to win the fight. I do
- 12:38Speaker 1: think Nordy have deserves to be the favorite at this point. Um,
- 12:42Speaker 1: but I just don't trust him enough. And, and if Vittori,
- 12:45Speaker 1: I mean, he's only 33 years old. If he can,
- 12:48Speaker 1: if he can do what he used to do, he
- 12:49Speaker 1: should be able to beat Nordy. He just looks so washed.
- 12:53Speaker 2: Like what would you say? Vittori's wrestling prop or his
- 12:56Speaker 2: takedown prop? 0.5. Yeah. It's fight. So tough to get to.
- 13:01Speaker 2: I mean, The mid-tier is not strong, so I guess
- 13:05Speaker 2: that's a case to be made if you want to
- 13:06Speaker 2: play it. I'll probably be avoiding a lot of the mid-tier.
- 13:09Speaker 2: This fight will be low-owned, but when you dive in, Vittori,
- 13:13Speaker 2: his last 10 fights have all gone the distance, and
- 13:15Speaker 2: six of those 10 were five-round fights. Nerdyov, his first
- 13:19Speaker 2: six UFC fights have all gone the distance. You're getting
- 13:22Speaker 2: two guys. I mean, if you watch any Vittori fights,
- 13:25Speaker 2: the dude's got a block for a head. It is
- 13:27Speaker 2: very hard to knock out Marvin Vittori, so I just
- 13:30Speaker 2: think It's hard for me to see this fight being
- 13:33Speaker 2: optimal without a finish. It's expected to go the distance.
- 13:36Speaker 2: You're parlaying a closely lined fight, which is 8,300, 7,900,
- 13:42Speaker 2: the closest line fight. You're parlaying getting the winner right,
- 13:44Speaker 2: and it's scoring enough on a 14-fight card to be optimal.
- 13:48Speaker 2: I just think that's too many things. So 10 lineups
- 13:50Speaker 2: or less, I would have none. The more lineups you get,
- 13:52Speaker 2: you can throw it in in contrarian teams, but definitely
- 13:55Speaker 2: not my favorite way to get different on this card.
- 13:58Speaker 2: One of my least favorite fights. which is definitely Big
- 14:01Speaker 2: Marley's one of his least favorite fights, too. He only
- 14:03Speaker 2: has two two-star fights, and that is that Vittori one,
- 14:06Speaker 2: and that is also this next fight. Alexander Hernandez, minus 285.
- 14:11Speaker 2: Rafael Dos Anos plus 234, minus 115 for this fight
- 14:15Speaker 2: to finish. Hernandez plus 120 inside the distance. Dos Anos
- 14:20Speaker 2: plus 650. Yeah, you have a two-star fight, so do
- 14:24Speaker 2: you plan on playing any?
- 14:27Speaker 1: No, I really don't want to play this fight either.
- 14:29Speaker 1: I think that RDA is probably washed at this point
- 14:32Speaker 1: as well. He's pushing 42, but I think skill-wise, I mean,
- 14:37Speaker 1: in his prime, Hernandez wouldn't even be able to touch
- 14:40Speaker 1: a prime RDA. So I think that if the skills
- 14:44Speaker 1: are still there, if RDA doesn't get knocked out, I
- 14:46Speaker 1: think he could wrestle with Hernandez. I think he could
- 14:49Speaker 1: strike with Hernandez and turn this into a close fight.
- 14:52Speaker 1: So he is a live underdog. I have him at
- 14:55Speaker 1: three stars for that reason. Just any live underdog I'm
- 14:58Speaker 1: willing to play this week. And then Hernandez, $ 9, 100. I
- 15:01Speaker 1: just don't think he's going to score much minute to minute.
- 15:04Speaker 1: But he does have knockout power if he knocks out
- 15:07Speaker 1: RDA in the first round. He could definitely flirt with
- 15:10Speaker 1: the optimal lineup. And he's similar to Eric Nolan, where
- 15:13Speaker 1: those are the two guys that I think get overlooked
- 15:16Speaker 1: and everyone else goes $ 9, 200 and up. So Hernandez first
- 15:22Speaker 1: round knockout, Nolan first round knockout. If you have them
- 15:26Speaker 1: both in your, on your team, if that happens, you're,
- 15:28Speaker 1: you're kind of, you're passing up a lot of the
- 15:32Speaker 1: field and just hoping that those other guys don't quite
- 15:34Speaker 1: score as much. You're just hoping that the card ends
- 15:36Speaker 1: and it's kind of crappy, but I think for ownership reasons,
- 15:39Speaker 1: you could play Hernandez, but if you might get a
- 15:41Speaker 1: couple lineups, I just want to not play this, this
- 15:45Speaker 1: fight and hope that Hernandez wins and score 70 points.
- 15:49Speaker 2: Yeah, in a vacuum, this fight's tougher to get to.
- 15:51Speaker 2: I mean, it was minus 255 Hernandez on Tuesday. Now
- 15:55Speaker 2: it's minus 285. RDA is my preferred play because we
- 15:59Speaker 2: need dogs on this card. And like you said, and
- 16:01Speaker 2: if he's not fully, fully washed, like he can wrestle,
- 16:04Speaker 2: he can strike. He is not in his proper weight class,
- 16:07Speaker 2: but the skills are definitely there. And it's not like
- 16:09Speaker 2: Hernandez is a great minute winner. And the same thing. Yeah,
- 16:13Speaker 2: I was going to compare Alexander Hernandez and Eric Nolan
- 16:16Speaker 2: to round one prop for Hernandez plus 210. That's 32%.
- 16:21Speaker 2: He very well could be half of that at 16% owned.
- 16:24Speaker 2: So in chalk, your teams, when you're building McGee and
- 16:26Speaker 2: the main event and stuff like that, I think Hernandez
- 16:29Speaker 2: is a way you can get different. Man, I don't
- 16:32Speaker 2: love it though. I initially, when I was writing everything up,
- 16:35Speaker 2: I liked Nolan more than Hernandez, but now money's came
- 16:38Speaker 2: against Nolan. Hernandez has taken money. It's only a $ 100
- 16:42Speaker 2: difference and a slightly better run one prop to Hernandez
- 16:46Speaker 2: than Nolan. So I might have to flip that. And
- 16:49Speaker 2: slightly prefer Hernandez. But they're very similar plays. Just ways
- 16:53Speaker 2: to get different and chalkier teams. Hunting for first round upside.
- 16:56Speaker 2: But yeah, we need dogs. 7,100. RDA is my preferred play.
- 17:02Speaker 2: Let's get to another mid-tier fight. Heavyweights. Johnny Walker taking
- 17:07Speaker 2: on Nick Parkin. Walker minus 125. Parkin plus 105. Minus
- 17:11Speaker 2: 160 for this fight to finish. both guys plus one
- 17:14Speaker 2: 90 inside the distance on Tuesday minus one 45, Johnny
- 17:18Speaker 2: Walker Thursday minus one 25. So parking has taken some
- 17:22Speaker 2: money is 600 cheaper. And I see you have more
- 17:25Speaker 2: stars on the parking side. So you think he wins?
- 17:28Speaker 2: How do you think this fight goes?
- 17:31Speaker 1: Yeah, I am picking parking to win. I just think
- 17:33Speaker 1: he could definitely be the better minute winner, really wherever
- 17:36Speaker 1: the fight goes. I think he could be the one
- 17:37Speaker 1: that dictates where the fight goes. Um, You really got
- 17:41Speaker 1: to watch for the explosiveness from Walker. Walker could definitely
- 17:45Speaker 1: knock out Parker in any round, but really early in
- 17:48Speaker 1: the fight is where it would be most likely. If
- 17:51Speaker 1: that happens, he's probably on the optimal lineup. So Walker's
- 17:54Speaker 1: definitely in play as well. I just like other favorites more.
- 17:57Speaker 1: And on a card where I'm looking for underdogs, Parkin,
- 18:00Speaker 1: a guy who I think can win all three rounds.
- 18:02Speaker 1: If he wrestles, I think he can win all three
- 18:05Speaker 1: rounds clearly because I don't think Walker's going to have
- 18:07Speaker 1: anything for him. Coming up to heavyweight as well. And
- 18:11Speaker 1: then I think Parkin's the better minute winner on the
- 18:12Speaker 1: feet too. I trust him more over 15 minutes than
- 18:15Speaker 1: I do Walker. I don't think Parkin is really live
- 18:18Speaker 1: that much to knock out Walker or maybe he's live
- 18:22Speaker 1: for submission, but I just don't think he's, uh, he
- 18:24Speaker 1: has as much finish equity, but he's definitely live to
- 18:27Speaker 1: win minutes in this fight. And if he can avoid
- 18:29Speaker 1: that early knockout, I think he does win minutes and
- 18:31Speaker 1: I like him to get his hand raised. So Parkin,
- 18:33Speaker 1: I actually think him and Court McGee might be my
- 18:36Speaker 1: only two underdogs I'm picking on the card, but, uh,
- 18:38Speaker 1: Those are the two I'll be overweight on for sure,
- 18:41Speaker 1: just for that reason.
- 18:42Speaker 2: How many wins do you think Parkin gets and isn't optimal?
- 18:47Speaker 1: And isn't optimal?
- 18:50Speaker 2: Man, I'm worried that this fight is just really boring
- 18:52Speaker 2: at distance. Johnny Walker has definitely changed his fighting style.
- 18:56Speaker 2: And to be honest, smart of him to do that.
- 18:59Speaker 2: It's a bigger cage. And I'm worried that the leg
- 19:01Speaker 2: kicks early limit Parkin's movement and then doesn't really force
- 19:05Speaker 2: him to shoot. Johnny's not going to over... extend. And
- 19:08Speaker 2: then we just get a staring match for 15 minutes,
- 19:10Speaker 2: which we've seen Johnny Walker fight. So like, what odds
- 19:13Speaker 2: are you putting that at? Or like if Parkin wins
- 19:16Speaker 2: a fight like that, it's not going to score enough. Yeah.
- 19:19Speaker 1: I mean, I definitely think Parkin could win and score
- 19:21Speaker 1: 55 points on this card though. I'm still willing to
- 19:26Speaker 1: risk it just because I need underdogs on this card.
- 19:29Speaker 1: So yeah, I think even if he gets his hand raised,
- 19:31Speaker 1: it's definitely not a lock. You're probably not done, but
- 19:34Speaker 1: I think he could score anywhere from like 60 to
- 19:36Speaker 1: 90 in, On this card, I'm willing to take that
- 19:39Speaker 1: range for sure.
- 19:40Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, 7,800. I prefer Parkin, too, for that
- 19:43Speaker 2: 600 savings. We need dogs on this card. Yeah, both
- 19:47Speaker 2: are plus 190 to finish. Like you said, I would
- 19:49Speaker 2: think johnny walker would have had a better inside the
- 19:51Speaker 2: distance prop as well but they're giving parkin a decent
- 19:55Speaker 2: bit of equity for submission plus 600 in this one
- 19:58Speaker 2: 14 he gets a submission if he gets a submission
- 20:01Speaker 2: he's obviously wrestling which only increases his upside so parkin
- 20:06Speaker 2: my preferred play i will play some johnny walker i
- 20:09Speaker 2: actually think He got more appealing once Marcus McGee got
- 20:12Speaker 2: a new opponent because now McGee's ownership is going to
- 20:15Speaker 2: be a lot higher, and that's going to take away
- 20:17Speaker 2: from the Walker-Parkin fight, especially on the Walker side. So
- 20:21Speaker 2: I don't mind leaving 100 playing Walker over McGee. If
- 20:24Speaker 2: he outscores him in a vacuum, that is definitely a
- 20:26Speaker 2: way you can get different as well. But the mid-tier
- 20:29Speaker 2: is weak. There's three mid-tier fights. It's Marcus McGee, who's
- 20:32Speaker 2: clearly the best now as a big favorite. Then it's Walker-Parkin,
- 20:35Speaker 2: minus 160 to finish. and then Nerdy of Vittori, which
- 20:38Speaker 2: we talked about, which we did not like at all.
- 20:40Speaker 2: So there's definitely going to be plenty of lineups where
- 20:43Speaker 2: I'm just avoiding that whole mid-tier, and that would be
- 20:45Speaker 2: a way to get different. Not playing this fight or
- 20:48Speaker 2: Marcus McGee puts you on a different roster construction. So
- 20:53Speaker 2: I'm indifferent to this fight. Something's telling me that these
- 20:56Speaker 2: two will be staring at each other for 15 minutes,
- 20:58Speaker 2: but still favored to finish. They're still big boys, still
- 21:01Speaker 2: have good inside-the-distance props, so I can't fully ignore it.
- 21:06Speaker 2: Next fight on the card, big favorite, is Anthony Wint,
- 21:09Speaker 2: minus 550, taking on Lucas Armand, plus 415, minus 600
- 21:13Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Wint, minus 350 inside the distance. Armand,
- 21:17Speaker 2: plus 600. And then in round one, Wint is minus 135.
- 21:22Speaker 2: I could argue Wint's the best play on the slate.
- 21:26Speaker 2: He's 9,300, so he's not breaking the bank. Three others
- 21:30Speaker 2: priced above him. You can plug any of those people
- 21:33Speaker 2: above him, including Smith. and drop down to Wint. He's
- 21:36Speaker 2: a wrestler. He's expected to finish in round one. Armand's
- 21:40Speaker 2: not very good. I would not be surprised in the
- 21:43Speaker 2: least if Wint's the highest score on the slate when
- 21:46Speaker 2: it's all said and done. So I would have the
- 21:48Speaker 2: stars exactly the same as you. But again, Wint could
- 21:51Speaker 2: score 115 and still not be optimal. So you can't
- 21:54Speaker 2: really lock someone at that price.
- 21:57Speaker 1: Yeah, he's going to be my favorite play on the
- 21:58Speaker 1: slate for sure. I think he could win really everywhere. Uh,
- 22:03Speaker 1: Armand could knock him out. He could definitely win minutes
- 22:06Speaker 1: at range, but when it's super powerful, I think he is, um,
- 22:10Speaker 1: going to be a dangerous wrestler. And once he gets takedowns,
- 22:13Speaker 1: I think he can grab the back and choke him
- 22:15Speaker 1: out as well. So I think he's live for a
- 22:17Speaker 1: knockout on the feet, ground and pound on the ground, uh,
- 22:20Speaker 1: and a submission. I also think he's live to wrestle
- 22:23Speaker 1: for three rounds. I don't know that he would do
- 22:24Speaker 1: enough at 9,300 for that to be what we want. Uh,
- 22:27Speaker 1: but yeah, I think he finishes this guy. I don't
- 22:29Speaker 1: really know that Armand even deserves to be in the UFC, uh,
- 22:32Speaker 1: So I won't be playing him. And I'll get as
- 22:35Speaker 1: much wint as I can afford. But I just can't
- 22:38Speaker 1: be all in because of the range that he's in.
- 22:40Speaker 1: I just love that entire range.
- 22:42Speaker 2: Totally agree. We see that the same. Let's keep it rolling.
- 22:46Speaker 2: Next fight on the card, Marcus McGee, minus 480. Anthony Romero,
- 22:49Speaker 2: plus 374. Only prop I'm seeing right now is under 2.5
- 22:53Speaker 2: at plus 151. So... What that means is this fight's
- 22:59Speaker 2: going to be favored to go the distance. I'm not
- 23:02Speaker 2: very familiar with Anthony Romero. Again, this fight was just announced,
- 23:06Speaker 2: I want to say yesterday is when Sopai pulled out
- 23:08Speaker 2: and then Romero stepped in. He's 7-2, 29 years old. Again,
- 23:12Speaker 2: taking the fight on short notice against Marcus McGee. He's well-rounded.
- 23:17Speaker 2: He's good on the feet. He has good cardio. He
- 23:19Speaker 2: has good training partners. Feels like a pretty uphill battle
- 23:23Speaker 2: when it comes to Romero. But with that being said,
- 23:25Speaker 2: it's not like Marcus McGee's just known to break slates
- 23:29Speaker 2: and score a hundred plus, like he can wrestle, but
- 23:31Speaker 2: he wants to prefers to stay on the feet. He
- 23:34Speaker 2: doesn't overextend and just like throw every, like all of
- 23:37Speaker 2: his power in his shots. So I think there's a
- 23:40Speaker 2: path where McGee outs lands on one 30 to 50
- 23:43Speaker 2: wins a decision, but still at 8,500 is not optimal.
- 23:47Speaker 2: And people are going to see that money line at
- 23:49Speaker 2: minus four 80 at 8,500. And like, it's clearly a
- 23:52Speaker 2: cash play. He's in play for tournaments and he's solid,
- 23:55Speaker 2: but 8,500, you still need to score. Like, 87 might
- 23:59Speaker 2: not be enough. So I got to see what projected
- 24:02Speaker 2: ownership is going to come in that if it's 40 plus,
- 24:05Speaker 2: which I assume it's gonna, maybe I'd just go, I'll
- 24:07Speaker 2: go underway to this fight in general. I'm debating playing
- 24:11Speaker 2: a little Anthony Romero too, just for this sheer leverage
- 24:14Speaker 2: he gets from McGee. And he has somewhat of a floor,
- 24:17Speaker 2: I guess, if this fight's not supposed to finish, which
- 24:19Speaker 2: it's not 38 and a loss at 6,700, like give
- 24:23Speaker 2: me him over a lot of these Bruce Whiteheads, Lucas Armand,
- 24:30Speaker 2: Davis and Figueredo, like these dudes probably aren't going to
- 24:32Speaker 2: score anything. So, yeah, I'm really curious to hear your
- 24:35Speaker 2: take on this. I haven't done enough digging in on Romero,
- 24:38Speaker 2: but I don't love McGee at probably what's going to
- 24:40Speaker 2: be ownership. And that price tag from Romero and the leverage,
- 24:44Speaker 2: I guess, has me considering it a bit.
- 24:47Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I don't hate the idea of using
- 24:50Speaker 1: Romero just for that reason. If he does win, nobody's
- 24:53Speaker 1: going to be on him and you're going to kill
- 24:55Speaker 1: off the highest owned guy on the entire card. Um,
- 24:59Speaker 1: so if I was playing multiple lineups, if I was
- 25:01Speaker 1: doing like 20 or more, I'd be interested in a
- 25:04Speaker 1: little bit of Romero. Uh, but I think the way
- 25:06Speaker 1: I would just rather go is hope that McGee is
- 25:08Speaker 1: 50% owned and just not use them and hope that
- 25:11Speaker 1: he does score under 10 X. Uh, he scored 61
- 25:14Speaker 1: and 71 in his two decision wins in the UFC.
- 25:21Speaker 1: Neither of those are going to cut it at $ 8, 500
- 25:23Speaker 1: and especially at, at 50% ownership or whatever he might
- 25:27Speaker 1: be on this card. And I think Romero had some
- 25:29Speaker 1: pretty good hands. I liked his striking. I think he
- 25:32Speaker 1: can hang on the feet. I think his best chance
- 25:35Speaker 1: to win would be to hurt McGee and then just
- 25:37Speaker 1: put on the pressure, get the TKO. But after the
- 25:41Speaker 1: first round, especially taking this fight on three days notice,
- 25:44Speaker 1: McGee is just too well-rounded, too much of an experienced vet.
- 25:48Speaker 1: Fought the highest competition where this is going to be
- 25:50Speaker 1: Romero's toughest fight to date by far. I just think
- 25:53Speaker 1: over three rounds, McGee will be too much for him
- 25:56Speaker 1: and he'll probably get two or three of those rounds
- 25:59Speaker 1: from the judges. I just don't know that that's going
- 26:01Speaker 1: to cut it, especially if he's not looking to wrestle much.
- 26:04Speaker 1: And he's not a guy that I really look at
- 26:07Speaker 1: as a high-paced wrestler. He might land one or two,
- 26:11Speaker 1: maybe three in this fight. I just don't think he's
- 26:13Speaker 1: going to keep going for it, especially if he's doing
- 26:16Speaker 1: well on the feet. So I'm definitely fine using McGee
- 26:19Speaker 1: because of all that value. But at the same time,
- 26:21Speaker 1: the entire field is going to do it as well.
- 26:23Speaker 1: So my favorite way, if I'm making one lineup, is
- 26:25Speaker 1: just to not use this fight And I hope he wins,
- 26:28Speaker 1: scores 70 points.
- 26:30Speaker 2: Yeah, we see it similar. I'll be waiting for inside
- 26:32Speaker 2: the distance props and round one props. But I doubt
- 26:35Speaker 2: that really changes my opinion too much. And it's not
- 26:37Speaker 2: going to change the fields. They're going to play an $ 8, 500
- 26:41Speaker 2: fighter that's minus 480 on this card. There's no doubt
- 26:44Speaker 2: about that. So probably underweight in tournaments, 14 fights. We
- 26:47Speaker 2: still need upside. And I think there is upside in
- 26:50Speaker 2: that mid-tier. Natalia Silva is only 200 more. Gadier is
- 26:52Speaker 2: only 300 more. Rodriguez is only 100 more. We talked
- 26:57Speaker 2: about the Walker-Parkin fight expected to finish. There's definitely outs
- 27:01Speaker 2: where McGee scores 80 and is nowhere near the optimal.
- 27:05Speaker 2: All right, again, appreciate everyone hanging out pretty much halfway
- 27:09Speaker 2: through the fights. All we ask is the like button
- 27:12Speaker 2: and subscribe button. It helps us out a ton. And
- 27:15Speaker 2: it's a 4 p.m. Eastern start time in Salt Lake
- 27:19Speaker 2: this week, so I didn't mention that from the top.
- 27:23Speaker 2: All right, next fight on the card. Damien Pinas, minus 575.
- 27:27Speaker 2: Andre Pouli of plus 431. Minus, let me see if
- 27:32Speaker 2: this actually loads quick. Come on, fight odds. Minus 350
- 27:38Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Pinas, minus 245 inside the distance.
- 27:42Speaker 2: Pouli of plus 675. Pinas in round one, plus 115.
- 27:48Speaker 2: He's definitely taking money. He was plus 125 in round
- 27:51Speaker 2: one at open, now plus 115. He was minus 225
- 27:54Speaker 2: inside the distance, now minus 245. This fight was minus
- 27:58Speaker 2: 325 to finish, now minus 350. But Pulyev took a
- 28:03Speaker 2: little money since open. Pinas opened minus 800, and then
- 28:07Speaker 2: 30 minutes later was minus 500. And the line has
- 28:10Speaker 2: stayed around there since then. So, I mean, this Pinas dude,
- 28:14Speaker 2: all of his wins in round one, he absolutely has dynamite.
- 28:18Speaker 2: in his hands, and Pulyaev is never someone that I
- 28:20Speaker 2: look to play. 10-5 is a pro. The dude runs
- 28:23Speaker 2: around the cage. I don't think Pinas is going to
- 28:25Speaker 2: worry about any power coming his way, so I think
- 28:28Speaker 2: he just stalks him and puts him out cold. He'll
- 28:32Speaker 2: just probably want it to be in round one at
- 28:33Speaker 2: this price, so that's how I see it.
- 28:36Speaker 1: Yeah, if we're turning knockouts off, then Pulyaev has a chance.
- 28:40Speaker 1: I think he could strike with Pinas for 15 minutes.
- 28:44Speaker 1: Maybe he can even tire him out, get a late knockout,
- 28:46Speaker 1: something like that. But Pinas just has crazy explosiveness and power,
- 28:51Speaker 1: and I think he is going to be hunting for
- 28:53Speaker 1: that early knockout. It's going to be hard for Puliaev
- 28:57Speaker 1: to avoid it. I like Pinas to get that knockout.
- 29:01Speaker 1: It's just when you're playing in the range that he's
- 29:03Speaker 1: playing with, I would rather have Wendt for 100 less.
- 29:06Speaker 1: If I can afford both, then great, let me just
- 29:08Speaker 1: do that. But there's also other guys that I want
- 29:11Speaker 1: in that range too, so I just got to spread
- 29:13Speaker 1: out my 9K ownership. I'll get some Pinas, but since
- 29:17Speaker 1: I like Wint more, I put this as a four-star
- 29:20Speaker 1: rather than a five, but I do like him to
- 29:22Speaker 1: get a first-round knockout.
- 29:24Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say, we always talk about leaving money
- 29:27Speaker 2: and leaving 100 in this. I actually think more lineups
- 29:30Speaker 2: that have Pinas and leave $ 0 will be less duped
- 29:34Speaker 2: than Wint leaving 100. I do think Wint will be
- 29:37Speaker 2: a decent bit higher on than Pinas. I think that is...
- 29:40Speaker 2: the correct call because he's a little higher or pretty
- 29:43Speaker 2: much the same money line, but better inside the distance.
- 29:46Speaker 2: He has wrestling upside, but I do not mind if
- 29:50Speaker 2: you play Pinas over Wint and leave the $ 0. What
- 29:56Speaker 2: do we got? Some fights announced. Mel Costager, Gordon, Sanchez, Elder, Moreno,
- 30:03Speaker 2: Charles Johnson. I mean, these kind of look like cheeks.
- 30:05Speaker 2: I'm not going to lie. What are we doing? Speaking
- 30:10Speaker 2: of something that wasn't cheeks, I wanted to ask you
- 30:12Speaker 2: from the top. Man, what a freaking main event we
- 30:14Speaker 2: had last week. Super scary in how it ended. But
- 30:18Speaker 2: before that, man, Hyoni, what a fucking monster. And I
- 30:22Speaker 2: will say, Raul Rosas and all that stuff that happened
- 30:25Speaker 2: in round five, I almost bet Rosas. I didn't think
- 30:28Speaker 2: the number was right going into the fifth at plus 650.
- 30:31Speaker 2: You could tell that second win and something just clicked.
- 30:34Speaker 2: The dude had like all the cardio in the world
- 30:37Speaker 2: in round five, jumping up and down and just fucking
- 30:41Speaker 2: guns blazing, knew he needed the finish. And again, I
- 30:43Speaker 2: know how it ended. There was still a lot of
- 30:45Speaker 2: time in that fight though. And Rosas was putting on
- 30:48Speaker 2: a pace in that fifth round. So props to him.
- 30:51Speaker 2: I know he's going to get shit on a lot.
- 30:52Speaker 2: He could have handled this stuff after better, but I
- 30:55Speaker 2: only a lot older. was in a war and winning
- 30:57Speaker 2: that fight clearly, but it is a five round fight,
- 31:00Speaker 2: 25 minutes. And he came out in round five and
- 31:03Speaker 2: he absolutely put it on Ioni. So I, what a,
- 31:05Speaker 2: what a sick, sick fight from those two. Yeah. Anything
- 31:09Speaker 2: you want to say about that card or that fight? Yeah.
- 31:12Speaker 1: Epic main event. Definitely stock up for Raul Rosas. I mean,
- 31:19Speaker 1: Raoni is just a different beast. I thought he was
- 31:22Speaker 1: winning the fight. I was, it was going to be
- 31:23Speaker 1: a really good night for me if Raoni got his
- 31:25Speaker 1: hand raised. I still ended up breaking even on DFS
- 31:30Speaker 1: with the loss, basically all in on Raoni having no Rosas.
- 31:35Speaker 1: But it could have been a good night for me.
- 31:37Speaker 1: And I thought Raoni was winning, but it was not
- 31:40Speaker 1: what I expected at all from the Raul Rosas side.
- 31:43Speaker 1: I was expecting wrestle or bust from him. And I
- 31:46Speaker 1: thought his striking looked really good. I thought his cardio
- 31:48Speaker 1: looked really good. His pace looked great. So, yeah, the
- 31:52Speaker 1: sky's the limit for Raul Rosas.
- 31:54Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, that left hand, he's clearly worked on
- 31:57Speaker 2: his striking. The toughness he has, durability right now. Cardio
- 32:01Speaker 2: was there. Hyoni's a fucking monster. So I hope everything's
- 32:05Speaker 2: well with him. Hopefully we never see him fight again
- 32:07Speaker 2: after that. There's no reason to risk that at that age.
- 32:09Speaker 2: But what a sick main event.
- 32:11Speaker 1: That was terrifying. Scary. Super scary. Glad he's all right now.
- 32:15Speaker 2: For sure. All right, let's keep it rolling. Next fight
- 32:17Speaker 2: on the card. Amano Rodriguez taking on Alden Correa. Rodriguez
- 32:23Speaker 2: minus 147. Correa plus 127. Minus 105 for this fight
- 32:27Speaker 2: to finish. Rodriguez plus 160 inside the distance. Correa plus 450.
- 32:34Speaker 2: Interesting fight. I see you have it a four star
- 32:37Speaker 2: and four stars on the Rodriguez side. So what do
- 32:39Speaker 2: you see?
- 32:41Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's kind of like power versus technique.
- 32:44Speaker 1: I do like Correa's striking at range. I think he's
- 32:47Speaker 1: the more technical guy. I think he can keep kind
- 32:49Speaker 1: of the same pace over the course of three rounds.
- 32:52Speaker 1: And he's live for a decision in this one. He's
- 32:55Speaker 1: also live to knock out Rodriguez just because of Rodriguez's aggressiveness.
- 33:00Speaker 1: But Rodriguez is going to be the aggressor, going to
- 33:03Speaker 1: be the guy with a lot more power trying to
- 33:05Speaker 1: kill Correa. I think he will have more damage throughout
- 33:08Speaker 1: the fight. I actually think he's probably more alive to
- 33:11Speaker 1: land takedowns as well. So I am picking Rodriguez to win.
- 33:15Speaker 1: He's my preferred choice of the two. I think he's
- 33:17Speaker 1: the guy with the ceiling with more first-round knockout equity.
- 33:21Speaker 1: So that's kind of how I'm playing this fight is
- 33:24Speaker 1: I'm targeting his first-round knockout equity or I'm targeting Correa
- 33:28Speaker 1: as a live dog if I'm using either side. Or
- 33:32Speaker 1: it's a four-star fight because I could definitely see either
- 33:35Speaker 1: one of them just not making the optimal lineup. in
- 33:37Speaker 1: a decision, and I think a decision is pretty dang likely.
- 33:41Speaker 2: Yeah, it's minus 125 to go the distance, so slightly
- 33:44Speaker 2: favored to go that way. I probably would have this
- 33:47Speaker 2: fight a four-star too. A, I don't think ownership is
- 33:49Speaker 2: going to be there too much. On the Correa side,
- 33:52Speaker 2: as you can see, on Tuesday he was plus 149.
- 33:56Speaker 2: Now he is plus 125, so he's taking over 20 cents.
- 33:59Speaker 2: And a plus 125 underdog at 7,600 is a very
- 34:03Speaker 2: good money line for his price. With Rodriguez, that usually
- 34:06Speaker 2: pushes the pace. So that all benefits Correa. And on
- 34:09Speaker 2: the Rodriguez side, I mean, he has to be low-owned.
- 34:12Speaker 2: Silva in the main event, 100 more. And now Marcus McGee,
- 34:15Speaker 2: 100 less as a big favorite. I think the McGee
- 34:19Speaker 2: replacement fight only boosted my interest in Rodriguez because I
- 34:23Speaker 2: think a lot of that ownership goes from Rodriguez to McGee.
- 34:26Speaker 2: He's still plus 160 to finish. He's finished all seven
- 34:30Speaker 2: of his fights. And his round one prop is solid
- 34:33Speaker 2: at plus 350, so... I think he has the finishing upside,
- 34:37Speaker 2: like you mentioned. Not a good money line, which is
- 34:40Speaker 2: going to keep his ownership down, but we're hunting for upside,
- 34:43Speaker 2: and he is aggressive. So Correa, due to the money
- 34:46Speaker 2: line and the price, Rodriguez, due to the range and
- 34:49Speaker 2: his inside-the-distance prop, is going to leave me probably overweight
- 34:52Speaker 2: on this fight that I do not expect to get
- 34:54Speaker 2: too much. All right, let's keep it rolling. Five fights left. Atiba, Gadier.
- 35:01Speaker 2: Ticking on Roman Kopulov. Minus 260 is Gaudier. Plus 215
- 35:05Speaker 2: is Kopulov. Minus 190 for this fight to finish. Gaudier
- 35:08Speaker 2: minus 105 inside the distance. Kopulov plus 350. I'm not
- 35:13Speaker 2: going to lie. I was a little surprised to see
- 35:15Speaker 2: this line. I guess see it continue to increase. It
- 35:18Speaker 2: was minus 210. Let's see it. Open minus 325. Shortly
- 35:22Speaker 2: after was already minus 190. And then on Tuesday, it
- 35:27Speaker 2: was minus 210 Gaudier. And now it's minus 260. Line's
- 35:31Speaker 2: going against me. I think Kapilov is a monster on
- 35:33Speaker 2: the feet, so I think it's competitive there. And I
- 35:36Speaker 2: think if someone wrestles, I think it's Kapilov, who has
- 35:39Speaker 2: shown willingness to wrestle as of late. So $ 1, 400 cheaper,
- 35:44Speaker 2: has the wrestling advantage, probably a little striking disadvantage, but
- 35:48Speaker 2: Kapilov's still a monster on the feet. I prefer the
- 35:51Speaker 2: underdog in this one, especially when we're hunting for underdogs.
- 35:54Speaker 2: With that being said, though, Gaudier, $ 8, 800. I don't think
- 35:58Speaker 2: he's going to break. Like ownership, I think it's going
- 36:01Speaker 2: to be in check with Natalia Silva, with Marcus McGee,
- 36:04Speaker 2: with those 9K people, Esteban Rebovics. So he also might
- 36:08Speaker 2: be a pivot. Big, scary dude, plus 250 in round one. 28.6%,
- 36:12Speaker 2: his ownership probably doesn't get that high. So I guess
- 36:17Speaker 2: a fight I want to be overweight on. I like
- 36:19Speaker 2: Kapilov more earlier in the week. Still probably prefer him,
- 36:22Speaker 2: but seeing the line movement on Gadier and the ownership
- 36:26Speaker 2: leads me to probably another overweight fight.
- 36:30Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm cool with either side of this fight. It's
- 36:31Speaker 1: similar to the last one where it's like power versus skill.
- 36:35Speaker 1: Kapilov is going to be the highest level striker that
- 36:38Speaker 1: Atiba has ever faced. But at the same time, Atiba
- 36:43Speaker 1: is going to be the most powerful striker that Kapilov
- 36:45Speaker 1: has ever faced. And he might not even get a
- 36:47Speaker 1: show off his skills because he might get knocked out
- 36:49Speaker 1: right away. But if he doesn't get knocked out, I
- 36:52Speaker 1: think that the kickboxing from Kapilov, and I do think
- 36:55Speaker 1: you're right, he's more likely to mix in takedowns. I
- 36:58Speaker 1: think he would be our more likely minute winner over
- 37:00Speaker 1: the course of 15 minutes. So you could play copy
- 37:03Speaker 1: love as a live dog who could win, um, striking
- 37:07Speaker 1: over 15 and mix in a takedown or two, or
- 37:10Speaker 1: you can play a Tiba and hope he gets that
- 37:12Speaker 1: first round knockout scores a hundred plus and beats the, uh,
- 37:16Speaker 1: the nine K guys that at lower ownership. Um, I'm
- 37:21Speaker 1: fine playing it for either reason. I mean, either of
- 37:24Speaker 1: those reasons. And then it's again, a four star, because if,
- 37:28Speaker 1: a Tiba wins a decision, $ 8, 800 is just going to
- 37:31Speaker 1: price him out of the optimal lineup. So I don't
- 37:34Speaker 1: want to be all in on this fight for that reason.
- 37:36Speaker 1: I also think copy live could win a boring striking
- 37:39Speaker 1: based decision and not score well. Uh, but I do
- 37:43Speaker 1: think this, this could be fun fight either way. I
- 37:45Speaker 1: do like it. And I probably like it a little
- 37:47Speaker 1: bit more than the last fight, just because these, these
- 37:50Speaker 1: guys are bigger boys.
- 37:52Speaker 2: Yeah. I agree with that.
- 37:54Speaker 1: One more thing. Well, I also like, uh, When I'm
- 37:56Speaker 1: having trouble, I like all the guys, 9,200 and more.
- 38:00Speaker 1: I don't know who I like that much more than
- 38:01Speaker 1: the other. I like to build lineups. How about if
- 38:04Speaker 1: I can't even afford 9,200, let me go with Hernandez, Nolan, Atiba,
- 38:11Speaker 1: and Rodriguez.
- 38:12Speaker 2: Natalia Silva. Something like that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 100%. Esteban Ribavix.
- 38:17Speaker 2: As good as that 9K is, that high up 8K
- 38:20Speaker 2: range is also very strong too. And I think that's
- 38:23Speaker 2: going to be pretty contrarian if you go that route.
- 38:26Speaker 2: yes and no. Like if you then go plug in
- 38:28Speaker 2: Marcus McGee and then like King Green, that's not necessarily different,
- 38:32Speaker 2: but because the mid tier is weak, if you're playing
- 38:35Speaker 2: not like anyone above 9,300 or 93 and above, and
- 38:39Speaker 2: you're fading Marcus McGee, that is a roster construction. You
- 38:42Speaker 2: can get different as well. So I don't hate it.
- 38:45Speaker 2: These guys have upside in the high AKs for sure. Atiba,
- 38:49Speaker 2: I'm not going to say as much upside as anyone,
- 38:50Speaker 2: but I mean, the 60 second bonus is always in play.
- 38:53Speaker 2: Anytime he fights, he's a scary, scary dude. So, Definitely
- 38:56Speaker 2: have some interest at 8,800. And I do prefer this
- 38:58Speaker 2: fight to the last fight, like you mentioned. Mainly minus
- 39:02Speaker 2: 105 to finish versus minus 190 is a pretty big gap.
- 39:07Speaker 2: Four fights left. Five-star fight. Big Marley's second five-star fight
- 39:11Speaker 2: on this card. That is Roberto Soldich minus 265. Chaos
- 39:15Speaker 2: Williams plus 219. Minus 400 for this fight to finish.
- 39:19Speaker 2: Soldich minus 210 inside the distance. Chaos plus 200. 400.
- 39:23Speaker 2: I'm excited to see Solvich make his UFC debut. This
- 39:26Speaker 2: dude looks good. He looks powerful. He went one against
- 39:30Speaker 2: Drikus in 2018, which you like to see. Again, that
- 39:34Speaker 2: was a while ago, but Chaos is always known for
- 39:37Speaker 2: his power. Now he welcomes another very powerful hitter into
- 39:40Speaker 2: the UFC in Solvich. I mean, I like Solvich. I
- 39:43Speaker 2: think I'm going to play a ton at 9,200, but
- 39:45Speaker 2: do not leave out Chaos Williams from your pool. If
- 39:48Speaker 2: he wins... He's probably going to knock him out unconscious,
- 39:51Speaker 2: and that goes a long way at 7K. So I'm
- 39:54Speaker 2: going to be overweight this fight. Don't even know if
- 39:56Speaker 2: I have a preferred play. I mean, Solich I think wins,
- 39:59Speaker 2: so probably him. But when Chaos wins, I think a
- 40:02Speaker 2: good amount of the field go down and his ownership's low.
- 40:04Speaker 2: But that's probably the game theory play if you're only
- 40:07Speaker 2: choosing one, like playing one lineup. So how do you
- 40:10Speaker 2: see it?
- 40:12Speaker 1: Yeah, well said. I just think someone's going to get
- 40:14Speaker 1: knocked out in this fight. Both guys have big-time power.
- 40:18Speaker 1: Both of them can have big-time aggression as well. They
- 40:20Speaker 1: might just blitz and fight in a phone booth here,
- 40:23Speaker 1: and one guy drops. I do like Soldich to be
- 40:26Speaker 1: the more skilled fighter, though, really everywhere. So I'm picking
- 40:30Speaker 1: him to win. I think the UFC wants him to
- 40:32Speaker 1: win as well. So he's my preferred play of the two.
- 40:36Speaker 1: But I really love his range, and I don't love
- 40:39Speaker 1: Chaos' range. So I do think Chaos makes a lot
- 40:42Speaker 1: of sense here. Game theory wise. And it also helps
- 40:45Speaker 1: you get to the other people in the Soldich's range
- 40:48Speaker 1: who I like as well. So maybe that will lead
- 40:51Speaker 1: me to more chaos than I really thought it would.
- 40:54Speaker 1: But if I'm making one lineup, I figured I would
- 40:56Speaker 1: be starting with Soldich kind of seeing where it goes.
- 40:59Speaker 1: But maybe I should be starting with chaos and seeing
- 41:02Speaker 1: where it goes. We'll see. Once I do my lineups,
- 41:04Speaker 1: I might change up the stars. But I think Soldich
- 41:06Speaker 1: knocks them out probably in the first round.
- 41:08Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Solich probably knocks him out too. But
- 41:10Speaker 2: like you said, when you're playing Soldich right away, it's
- 41:13Speaker 2: hard to play Pinas, Wint, Silva, Jacoby Smith, like all
- 41:18Speaker 2: those guys that we've already talked about in the upper tier.
- 41:21Speaker 2: You've got to make sacrifices, whereas it's easier with Chaos.
- 41:25Speaker 2: So it's a good fight to target, no doubt about that.
- 41:27Speaker 2: Minus 400 to finish, comes in as third best on
- 41:31Speaker 2: the slate. And Anthony Wint, Jacoby Smith, two huge favorites there.
- 41:35Speaker 2: are the best. So I think this is one of
- 41:37Speaker 2: the best fights to target on both sides. And even
- 41:39Speaker 2: Soldich doesn't break the bank. He could outscore Jacoby Smith
- 41:43Speaker 2: in a vacuum. Not saying I think you need to
- 41:45Speaker 2: leave the 600, but it is viable since he does
- 41:48Speaker 2: have that upside. Let me see actually quick what Soldich
- 41:52Speaker 2: in round one was. I know it was good. Shoot,
- 41:55Speaker 2: that was Rebovix. I was already on to the next one.
- 41:58Speaker 2: Soldich round one plus 170. Opened plus 180 so i
- 42:05Speaker 2: mean that's pretty good plus 170 is 37 probably about
- 42:09Speaker 2: where his ownership's at i like it but it is
- 42:12Speaker 2: not gonna i don't expect either to wrestle so if
- 42:15Speaker 2: this fight does get to the third round probably ggs
- 42:18Speaker 2: unless chaos does win all right three fights left again
- 42:23Speaker 2: appreciate everyone hanging out many watching on playback for watching
- 42:26Speaker 2: live too we appreciate you Hope you have some fun
- 42:29Speaker 2: plans for the weekend. A lot of sports going on.
- 42:32Speaker 2: MLB playoffs, college football, MMA, NASCAR, NFL, PGA Showdown. Great
- 42:37Speaker 2: time to be a sports fan. NHL, didn't even mention that,
- 42:40Speaker 2: which started two days ago. We have you covered for
- 42:42Speaker 2: all the sports above. Again, all access. You can get
- 42:45Speaker 2: in for monthly, for annual, different packages there. Five days
- 42:48Speaker 2: for $ 19 if you want to try us out. Or
- 42:51Speaker 2: we do have single sport packages as well for MMA. Alright,
- 42:56Speaker 2: I agree with what T-Bird said in the beginning. Bobby,
- 42:59Speaker 2: the people's main event. This is my main event. Esteban Rebovics,
- 43:02Speaker 2: King Green, minus 240 Rebovics, plus 200 King Green, minus
- 43:07Speaker 2: 180 for this fight to finish. Rebovics minus 140 inside
- 43:10Speaker 2: the distance. King Green plus 550. Rebovics in round one,
- 43:15Speaker 2: plus 250. I think when it's all said and done,
- 43:18Speaker 2: you will see King Green as one of the highest
- 43:20Speaker 2: owned lower tier fighters. And I mean, I can't blame
- 43:24Speaker 2: anyone for doing that. Plus, 200 isn't bad. He throws
- 43:27Speaker 2: a lot of volume. So does Reba Vicks. Maybe King
- 43:31Speaker 2: Green mixes in takedowns. I don't know how much he would,
- 43:34Speaker 2: but I think it'd be smart to try and mix
- 43:35Speaker 2: it in. But regardless, the dude is always game. He's
- 43:40Speaker 2: had big wins. Zellhuber, he was a bigger dog than
- 43:43Speaker 2: this and absolutely broke the slate. So King Green's always
- 43:46Speaker 2: alive to do that. With that being said, though, man,
- 43:49Speaker 2: I think Reba Vicks, 10 years younger, I don't even
- 43:52Speaker 2: necessarily know. I feel like Rebovics is bigger than King Green,
- 43:55Speaker 2: even though the reach and the height don't say it.
- 43:57Speaker 2: But I think he's faster. I think he hits harder.
- 44:00Speaker 2: I think he's more durable. I think it's just his
- 44:02Speaker 2: time 10 years younger. So I think Rebovics knocks him
- 44:05Speaker 2: out when it's all said and done. But yeah, he's $ 1, 600
- 44:09Speaker 2: more in a loaded range, which will keep his ownership
- 44:12Speaker 2: in check, which I like to see. But yeah, I
- 44:14Speaker 2: love this fight, real life and DFS.
- 44:17Speaker 1: Yeah, great fight. It's going to be the highest paced
- 44:19Speaker 1: fight on the card from really both sides. If Green wins,
- 44:24Speaker 1: I think he's a lock for the optimal lineup. I
- 44:26Speaker 1: would imagine he's scoring 90 plus points in any win.
- 44:31Speaker 1: But yeah, I think that Rubavik is just going to
- 44:33Speaker 1: be too much for him. I think that he's a
- 44:35Speaker 1: guy who can match the pace from Bobby or even
- 44:39Speaker 1: pick it up. And I think at this point, he's
- 44:41Speaker 1: probably more powerful, more durable. I like him to be
- 44:44Speaker 1: able to keep up that pace for an entire 15
- 44:47Speaker 1: minutes as well. But I think at some point those
- 44:50Speaker 1: shots add up, and I think he does knock out
- 44:52Speaker 1: Bobby Green. So I like this fight, both sides of it.
- 44:56Speaker 1: I even thought about making it a five-star. I think
- 44:58Speaker 1: it's right there between four and five. I'll be pretty
- 45:01Speaker 1: heavy both sides of it. But, yeah, if Green's going
- 45:04Speaker 1: to be one of the most chalky underdogs, maybe that
- 45:06Speaker 1: makes me like him less and Ribovic more, since I
- 45:10Speaker 1: am picking Ribovic to win.
- 45:12Speaker 2: You did say, though, what you think 95% of King
- 45:15Speaker 2: Green's wins are optimal, though, at this price?
- 45:19Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, 14 fights, probably not 100%, but I'd
- 45:23Speaker 1: say pretty close to 100%.
- 45:25Speaker 2: So when you put it that way, even if King
- 45:28Speaker 2: Green's 28, 30%, like he's plus 200 on the money line,
- 45:30Speaker 2: that's 33.3%. That kind of shows pretty efficient. If he
- 45:35Speaker 2: does win 33% of the time and what, 30% of
- 45:38Speaker 2: those are optimal, maybe that's chalk you want to get to.
- 45:41Speaker 2: And I mean, It's making me think more and more like, yeah,
- 45:44Speaker 2: you know what? On a card like this with 14 fights,
- 45:47Speaker 2: with a fadable main event, with a fadable Marcus McGee chalk,
- 45:51Speaker 2: I think there's plenty of ways you can get different
- 45:53Speaker 2: where you can plug in chalk, King Green, to start
- 45:55Speaker 2: your lineups if that's what you want. Even eat another
- 45:58Speaker 2: chalk piece or two in it and then get different
- 46:00Speaker 2: with the remaining stuff. So, yeah, I'm fine eating chalk
- 46:04Speaker 2: pretty much any fight. If you like someone enough, you
- 46:07Speaker 2: can get overweight on them and then figure out roster
- 46:09Speaker 2: construction-wise what's not to hold hands with so many people
- 46:12Speaker 2: up top. So I'm going to have a lot of
- 46:14Speaker 2: King Green, even though he will be chalky. But I
- 46:17Speaker 2: also want a good amount of Rebovics and probably more
- 46:19Speaker 2: overweight to the field on Rebovics, since he is some
- 46:21Speaker 2: leverage off of King Green as well at high ownership.
- 46:26Speaker 2: All right, co-main event time. The second highest price fighter
- 46:29Speaker 2: and the second biggest favorite, Peyton Talbot, minus 750. Davison Figueredo,
- 46:33Speaker 2: plus 540. Minus 160 for this fight to finish. Talbot
- 46:37Speaker 2: minus 145 inside the distance. Figge plus 925. Talbot in
- 46:42Speaker 2: round one plus 250. I'm kind of torn on this one, man.
- 46:47Speaker 2: Like I can't X Talbot out of the pool because
- 46:49Speaker 2: he does have like a 135 piece in his bag.
- 46:52Speaker 2: I mean, if Figge, Figge, the problem with him is
- 46:55Speaker 2: he's so boring nowadays and doesn't push any pace. But
- 46:58Speaker 2: Talbot on the opposite side is the opposite of boring.
- 47:01Speaker 2: Like he might just not care about Figge's power. Just
- 47:04Speaker 2: walk him down. jab them to death, Nixon takedowns, get
- 47:07Speaker 2: a knockdown here, a knockdown there. It's really tough clicking
- 47:11Speaker 2: that name at 9,600 when Jacoby Smith's 98, when Wint's 93,
- 47:16Speaker 2: when Pinas is 9,400, all these guys, Solvich, whatever, 92.
- 47:22Speaker 2: But that being said, he's still favored to finish. He's
- 47:25Speaker 2: only taking money as the week has gone on. He's
- 47:27Speaker 2: high volume. There's paths that Figge's tough enough where he
- 47:31Speaker 2: gets up after he continued to get knocked down where,
- 47:33Speaker 2: you see a big boy number. So really just in
- 47:36Speaker 2: chalkier lineups for me where I'll play Talbot, but Talbot
- 47:39Speaker 2: might be 15% owned or something like that. And if
- 47:43Speaker 2: that's the case, I think he probably has a little
- 47:45Speaker 2: more chance at the optimal than 15%, but I don't know.
- 47:49Speaker 2: Maybe I'm going crazy just trying to get contrarian. 9,600
- 47:51Speaker 2: is a big boy price. I'm curious to hear your
- 47:54Speaker 2: take on this one.
- 47:56Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely like Talbot. I mean, $ 9, 600, he's got
- 48:00Speaker 1: the volume to be able to score 110 plus in
- 48:03Speaker 1: a decision as a majority striker. So I do like him. Um,
- 48:08Speaker 1: he's just in that range where I like all the guys.
- 48:11Speaker 1: So if I can't afford them, then I have no
- 48:13Speaker 1: issue going to one of those guys under him, like
- 48:15Speaker 1: a penis or went, uh, or sold itch. So that's really,
- 48:19Speaker 1: what's going to keep me from getting too much Talbot
- 48:22Speaker 1: is just not being able to afford him. Also liking
- 48:25Speaker 1: guys that are cheaper. But this is one fight where
- 48:28Speaker 1: I only like one side of it. I think it's
- 48:31Speaker 1: all Peyton Talbot. I don't know that Figge has any
- 48:33Speaker 1: edge in this fight. He's going to need a flash
- 48:35Speaker 1: knockout or a flash submission to get the job done.
- 48:39Speaker 1: I would just bank on that not happening. I think
- 48:42Speaker 1: he gets dominated from start to finish. And I don't
- 48:44Speaker 1: know when that finish is going to come, but I
- 48:46Speaker 1: think it could be any round. And if it doesn't,
- 48:49Speaker 1: I think he can still flirt with 110, 120 points.
- 48:54Speaker 1: So I'm definitely cool with Talbot, and I'd be fine
- 48:58Speaker 1: if I made lineups. If I made 150 and he
- 49:01Speaker 1: gave me like 35%, 40% Talbot, I think I'd be
- 49:04Speaker 1: cool with that as long as I liked everything else.
- 49:06Speaker 2: That'd be well over the field for sure. And like
- 49:09Speaker 2: you said, it's harder to get to him when Wins
- 49:11Speaker 2: and Solvich and Pinas are all less than him, but
- 49:14Speaker 2: the whole field's going to see the same exact thing.
- 49:16Speaker 2: That's why you're going to see Talbot lower own than
- 49:18Speaker 2: all three of those guys that we just mentioned. So yeah,
- 49:21Speaker 2: I have interest in low on Talbot as a way
- 49:23Speaker 2: to get different. All right. Main event time. What's up? Uh, Laris,
- 49:29Speaker 2: he thinks Silva and Wang are going to go the distance,
- 49:33Speaker 2: and that is what is projected on this. So we
- 49:35Speaker 2: have Silva minus 205, Wang Kong plus 173, and this
- 49:39Speaker 2: fight's minus 260 to go the distance, plus 200 to finish.
- 49:43Speaker 2: Silva plus 300 inside the distance, Wang plus 550. I'll
- 49:49Speaker 2: let you start this one, man. Like, how much is
- 49:51Speaker 2: Silva going to wrestle? Is it going to be a
- 49:53Speaker 2: striking match for 25 minutes? If it is, can... I mean,
- 49:57Speaker 2: Wang throws volume. Like, can we get 170 significant strikes
- 50:01Speaker 2: on either side? This one's really tough for me to
- 50:04Speaker 2: see how it plays out. And Nick, I could see
- 50:07Speaker 2: this fight happening 10 times and five times it plays
- 50:09Speaker 2: out fun and five it plays out really boring. I'm
- 50:12Speaker 2: all ears when it comes to this one.
- 50:14Speaker 1: Yeah, I just changed it, my stars on this one,
- 50:18Speaker 1: to a two-star overall. And then two stars on Silva,
- 50:23Speaker 1: four stars on Wang. Just because I think any wing
- 50:28Speaker 1: when is going to compete with the optimal could even
- 50:30Speaker 1: be a lock for the optimal. I think she has
- 50:33Speaker 1: power on the feet, more power than Silva. I think
- 50:36Speaker 1: she's the better boxer, just the better hands in general.
- 50:39Speaker 1: And the striking could really be close. It's her hands
- 50:42Speaker 1: versus Silva's speed and movement and kicks. I think the
- 50:47Speaker 1: striking could really go either way. Silva could mix in takedowns.
- 50:51Speaker 1: I think she would be the better grappler of the
- 50:53Speaker 1: two and it would be smart of her to do that.
- 50:55Speaker 1: But I just, I mean, almost all of her wins
- 50:57Speaker 1: aren't going to cut it at $ 8, 700. I was thinking
- 51:01Speaker 1: maybe you can use Silva as a way to get different,
- 51:03Speaker 1: but are you really getting different in a main event fighter?
- 51:06Speaker 1: I just don't think so. So I'm not going to
- 51:08Speaker 1: play any Silva unless it was, you know, that was,
- 51:14Speaker 1: I just don't think I'm going to play any Silva actually.
- 51:16Speaker 1: Let me just X her out and focus on these
- 51:19Speaker 1: other fights instead and just kind of hope that she
- 51:22Speaker 1: wins and doesn't score enough. And that's why I have
- 51:24Speaker 1: it as a two star overall. But Kong is somebody
- 51:27Speaker 1: I'm definitely not going to X out. I think she's
- 51:29Speaker 1: as alive as any other dog on this card. And
- 51:34Speaker 1: she could knock her out in the first round, too.
- 51:35Speaker 1: She's kind of got that kind of equity, but I
- 51:38Speaker 1: wouldn't expect it. But she could also win a five
- 51:40Speaker 1: round decision. And as an underdog, I'm always cool with that.
- 51:43Speaker 1: So I guess for me, it's going to be Kong
- 51:46Speaker 1: or pass. But I'm picking Silva to win and just
- 51:48Speaker 1: not score enough.
- 51:50Speaker 2: Man, I think. Silva is still my preferred play. And
- 51:55Speaker 2: I think part of it is, again, I think Silva
- 51:57Speaker 2: only got more appealing when Marcus McGee got a new opponent.
- 52:01Speaker 2: Because now more people, some of that Silva ownership, I think,
- 52:04Speaker 2: goes to McGee. Wang's already going to be high owned
- 52:06Speaker 2: because it's a lot easier to fit the 9K options.
- 52:10Speaker 2: So I think Wang comes in higher owned than Silva
- 52:13Speaker 2: in the main event. Anytime I see that and the
- 52:16Speaker 2: favorite's minus 200... It always opens my eyes. And then
- 52:20Speaker 2: with Silva too, like you mentioned, she should try and
- 52:23Speaker 2: mix in wrestling. I know that's not what she does,
- 52:25Speaker 2: but Wang's just a striker. Mora almost submitted her recently.
- 52:29Speaker 2: Wang also has been chin-checked as a minus 1,000 favorite
- 52:32Speaker 2: just a couple of fights ago as well. So I
- 52:35Speaker 2: just think 8,700 doesn't break the bank. Possible wrestling upside.
- 52:40Speaker 2: But 25 minutes to work. Maybe it is just a slugfest.
- 52:43Speaker 2: I think there's multiple outs. Silva can get there at
- 52:45Speaker 2: 30% maybe. Like she's not going to be low owned,
- 52:49Speaker 2: but she's going to be in check relative to main
- 52:51Speaker 2: event favorites on what we've seen on many of cards.
- 52:54Speaker 2: So I think actually Silva is probably my preferred play,
- 52:58Speaker 2: but I totally do agree with you in the sense
- 52:59Speaker 2: of Wang, when she wins a lot more likely to
- 53:02Speaker 2: be optimal than all of Silva's wins definitely will not
- 53:06Speaker 2: all be optimal. But when she is, I think the
- 53:08Speaker 2: ownership will be in check. I think not half the field,
- 53:11Speaker 2: but Wang might be 40%, 40% buried in, I think
- 53:14Speaker 2: Silva is the leverage play. And again, as a minus
- 53:17Speaker 2: 200 favorite at 8,700, I think she's my preferred, but
- 53:22Speaker 2: I've more than likely will probably be underweight on this one.
- 53:25Speaker 2: It really all comes down to projected ownership. I think
- 53:27Speaker 2: somewhere around Silva, 30% weighing 37%, I think is my
- 53:32Speaker 2: initial thoughts. 67% of the field. Yeah. I think I.
- 53:37Speaker 1: Would say Silva might be under 30 now just because
- 53:41Speaker 1: of McGee. So she might be like 25 to 30 range.
- 53:44Speaker 2: That makes me like her even more for sure. Yeah,
- 53:47Speaker 2: I think I'll be more overweight to Silva, probably underweight wing,
- 53:50Speaker 2: but probably pretty close to the field on this fight
- 53:53Speaker 2: in general. It's just, man, minus 260 to go the
- 53:56Speaker 2: distance in a 25 minute fight where you can see
- 53:58Speaker 2: neither of these girls average over a takedown. None of
- 54:01Speaker 2: that sounds appealing. But again, the field's going to see that.
- 54:06Speaker 2: And I do think there could be sneaky wrestling upside
- 54:09Speaker 2: for Natalia Silva in this one, at least That's what
- 54:11Speaker 2: she should be doing leading up to this fight is
- 54:13Speaker 2: grinding that offensive wrestling and mixing that in at least
- 54:17Speaker 2: to keep Wayne guessing on the feats and the feints.
- 54:19Speaker 2: So is it a great main event? No, but it's
- 54:23Speaker 2: five rounds. It's a title fight. And I mean, it's
- 54:26Speaker 2: the last fight of the night. So we're forced to
- 54:28Speaker 2: watch it. Hopefully you have a sweat going into it,
- 54:30Speaker 2: whether you're fading the fight or you're cheering for one
- 54:33Speaker 2: of these girls. Hopefully you have some sweat when it's
- 54:35Speaker 2: all said and done, but not the best DFS card,
- 54:38Speaker 2: not the best pay-per-view card, but for the earth, Excuse me,
- 54:41Speaker 2: not the best real-life card, not the best pay-per-view card,
- 54:44Speaker 2: but for DFS. 14 fights is great. A fadeable main event, great.
- 54:49Speaker 2: A very chalky $ 8, 500 favorite that we think we can
- 54:52Speaker 2: maybe fade. I think it's pretty good for DFS, so
- 54:55Speaker 2: I'm excited for it. Final thoughts for you, Big Marley.
- 54:59Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to need a sweat if I'm going
- 55:00Speaker 1: to stay up for this main event, to be honest
- 55:02Speaker 1: with you. So if I don't have a sweat going,
- 55:03Speaker 1: it might be bedtime after Rubavik's versus Green. But hopefully
- 55:07Speaker 1: there is a sweat. Good luck to you, Tidal. Good
- 55:09Speaker 1: luck to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
- 55:12Speaker 2: Yeah, a little easier for me to stay up on
- 55:13Speaker 2: the West Coast when the card starts at 1 versus 4.
- 55:16Speaker 2: I would definitely be in bed if I was on
- 55:18Speaker 2: the East Coast. I will be up, though, more than
- 55:21Speaker 2: likely watching this whole card. And I'm definitely excited for
- 55:24Speaker 2: some fights on my screen. Again, appreciate everyone hanging out. Like, button,
- 55:28Speaker 2: subscribe button helps us out a ton. And again, we'd
- 55:30Speaker 2: love to have you at The Nation. ShipofNation.com, bottom left,
- 55:33Speaker 2: join The Nation. Whether you want to get in for
- 55:36Speaker 2: five days for $ 19 to get all these sports above
- 55:39Speaker 2: or weekly or monthly or annual, the price only gets
- 55:43Speaker 2: cheaper as you go up in time. And then you
- 55:47Speaker 2: also have single sport options as well if you just
- 55:49Speaker 2: want some MMA content. You can see that right here.
- 55:52Speaker 2: Definitely do get in the Discord if you do join.
- 55:54Speaker 2: What's up, AX? Great to see you. It's a nice
- 55:57Speaker 2: car you got right there, but. Good luck, everybody. Enjoy
- 56:01Speaker 2: your weekend. Be safe. We will be back next weekend.
- 56:03Speaker 2: For my man, Big Marley, I'm Titletown. Good luck. Peace.