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The Muster- Eric Roy: Campaign Mode Is All Go · The Muster on Hokonui

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to The Muster. Eric Roy talks politics on
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: a Monday afternoon. G'day, Eric. You're up in the Te
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Ania Basin today, and it is warmer than a couple
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: of weeks ago.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: Well, that's a no-brainer.
• 0:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, it wouldn't have to be very warm, but
• 0:21
  Speaker 3: the good thing is it was only 8 mils in
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: the rain gauge for the week, and we've had now
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: three days in a row without rain. So a bit
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: of warmth, you know, temperature in the teens, so we're
• 0:33
  Speaker 3: getting a bit of growth, and... Hopefully, we will just
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: remember the bad patch of September as a memory we
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: dealt with, and it's onwards and upwards from here. They
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: say about the southern climate, it'll challenge you, but it'll
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: never let you down. Well, it was pretty darn challenging
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: over September, that's for sure.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. What's it like up there at TR now? Is
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: the ground still pretty soggy, I suppose, for want.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Of a term?
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I just had a drive over the paddocks
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: we hit Kale on for the winter, hoping I'd get
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: the discs going, but it'll be another 10 days without
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: rain before we can do that, I would say, looking
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: at it. So, yep, still pretty wet, but it's improving.
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: And the other good thing, one of my measures when
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: I drive up, I come up on this road and...
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: There was dust on the road today, first time for months,
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: so it's getting drier.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: That's a Southlander, I suppose. But look, the bigger issue
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: is the election. The countdown is well and truly underway.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: What are we talking about when it comes to strategic voting?
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: A lot of talk amongst political parties at the moment
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: about having a strategy when you're at the ballot box.
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well... It's getting a bit of currency. It started
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: with the Maori Party, and now the Malbraith team are
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: saying the right coalition needs to employ the same thing. Well,
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: all I can say is there's huge risk. And the
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: assumption they're running on is that National are going to
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: win the majority of the seats in the electorates, and
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: therefore two ticks is a wasted vote. the difficulty you've
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: got is there's no guarantee that's actually going to happen.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: When they do polling, it kind of shows up that
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: there's a significant percentage of people haven't made their mind up.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: And over the years, I've watched exit polls, which they
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: do when people finish voting, and sometimes there are 17%
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: of the people don't actually know what they're doing until
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: they pick up the orange pen. And so to say, well,
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: here's a strategy that everybody understands, on top of deciding
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: whether you want more taxes, more borrowing, or whatever else
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: you want, you have to assume that the mass public
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: is educated enough to know and understand how strategic voting works,
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: when if you ask the majority of people exactly how
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: MMP works, you'd get a variety of answers. So it's
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: a hugely risky thing to do, and I think if
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: you want... If you want a Labour-led government, two ticks red.
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: If you want a National-led coalition, two ticks blue. And
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: I would think that's probably the best advice you can
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: give anybody because there's so much risk around trying to
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: gerrymander the vote to get an overhang.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: But perhaps people aren't happy with the performance of say
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: the Nats, but they're happy with, say, the local MPs.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: So that frame comes into it too.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: That's always happened. And one of the things were that
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: a number of people who voted Labour and for Cargill
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: voted Eric for the electorate, which is why I won it.
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: And that happens. And that's fair enough. That's the contest
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: of the best person to serve the electorate. But to
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: try and say the best coalition grouping to run the
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: country we can gerrymander that to get an overhang is
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: an entirely different principle which I said is full of risk.
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: It's interesting to note right now looking around the world
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: that major parties are shrinking and minor parties are growing
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: so we've got a situation in New Zealand now where
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: the coalition on the left is Labour and three parties
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: and probably the coalition on the right is National and
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: one and a half parties, because I'm not entirely sure
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: that one of the parties that's going to perform in
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: the way that we all expect that they might. So,
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: you know, it's a bit of a challenging time. And
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: to try and drop strategic voting to gerrymandered outcome on
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: top of that is, I think, a huge risk.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Well, it's about getting bang for buck as well.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: And there's a lot of people who are frustrated regarding
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: this local council reform being paused after being told by
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: the incumbent government that this needs to go through.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: Well, of course, I'm ankle deep in that or even
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: a bit deeper. And look, it's got to happen. But again,
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: what actually happened at the cabinet meeting that actually delayed
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: the decision making? and that's why I said we've only
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: got one and a half parties on the right, and
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: I'm not blaming which particular party, but one actually dug
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: in and said, no, we're not doing this before the election,
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: and we're all ready to go, and hey, presto, it
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: gets put on hold, and who knows what shape the
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: government will be in or how long it will actually
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: take to form a government after an election with so
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: many players trying to gerrymander the situation.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: And that's the concern with MMP. Like you say, we
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: might not have a government for three or four weeks.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Worst case scenario?
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: Well, it could be three or four months. Who knows
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: what's going to happen? Because whilst you've got the two
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: main parties saying, this is where we sit with our
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: fiscal strategy, and then other parties are making promises which
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: are outside that fiscal constraint that the two major parties
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: are saying... that's all got to be renegotiated before you
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: can have a coalition. And people who are voting on
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: the basis of what might be a constraint on expenditure
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: with either of the major parties will then say, hang
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: on a minute, we didn't vote for this, and who
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: knows what will happen. It could actually mean that we
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: end up with a second election in six months' time
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: if it can't all be settled. It is the most
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: unstable time in my short career of about 75 years.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: That is a short career. You're right, Eric.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: But when you're on the campaign trail, it must be
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: pretty darn taxing. I mean, you're looking at all the politicians,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: all the wannabe politicians having meetings here, there and everywhere. Jeez,
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: it must be demanding.
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: I loved it. I loved it. Because my role in
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: politics as Speaker was I couldn't talk much. If you
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: give me a microphone and a crowd, that's my happy place.
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: So I really love campaigning, even though we're 90-hour weeks
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: and door-knocking and having meetings and just forcing yourself on people.
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: And it also is a challenge to be credible. You
• 7:23
  Speaker 3: just don't say, well, I'm just out here selling the seeds.
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: You've actually put a bit of thought into why you're
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: in policy and what it all means. And I found
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: that was the high point, really, and a very critical
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: part of the whole campaign in terms of what you're
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: doing as a politician.
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: Good on you, Eric. Always appreciate your time.
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: Thank you very much.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: Eric Roy, Talking Politics.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: And if you were at Rugby Park on Friday night,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: you may have heard his dulcet tones coming over the
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: PA at one stage, too.
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: Wasn't his fault. I'll point that out. Dean Ravage is
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: up next. This is the muster.